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Predictive Analysis for Dam Safety
1
Lance Hill Energy Lead, Industry Workflows SIMULIA lance.hill@3ds.com
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Changing Dynamics of the Energy Industry
2
3DS.COM Š Dassault Systèmes | Confidential Information | 05/12/13 | ref.: 3DS_Document_2012
Realistic Simulation for Hydropower: Safety
3
Understand
Predict
Mitigate
Improve understanding of failure process Causes and how can failure be prevented
Predict failure under operating or special conditions (Floods, earthquake, etc.)
Simulate effects of mitigation measures and pick most suitable ones
Design & construction
Aging issues
Natural disasters
Material choices
Spillway gate failures
Floods
Construction methods Construction failures
Concrete swelling Concrete cracking
Earthquakes
3DS.COM © Dassault Systèmes | Confidential Information | 05/12/13 | ref.: 3DS_Document_2012
Realistic Simulation for Hydropower: Design As the large structures of concrete set, cracking can occur due to thermal effects Assess construction parameters to minimize cracking Joint spacing Lift heights Construction start time Concrete placement temperatures Lift placement rate
Thermal Behavior
Use 3D simulations for interactions between deformations in multiple directions Identify and assess effects of various mitigation strategies
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La Breña II Dam Largest RCC dam in Europe
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Realistic Simulation for Hydropower: Design
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Simulation Insight Beginning construction in May (hotter air temperatures) resulted in greater tensile stresses showingprofiles that it might Temperature in be better to begin construction in central monolith at different November.stages Other of parameters such construction as materials could be altered to allow Tensile stresses – possibility of cracking different construction times.
Thermal Cracking Evaluation for La Breña II Dam during the Construction Process F. Rueda, N. Camprubí and G. García Advanced Design & Analysis Division, IDOM 2005 Abaqus Users’ Conference
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Realistic Simulation for Hydropower: Aging
6
Understand
Predict
Mitigate
Improve understanding of failure process Causes and how can failure be prevented
Predict failure under operating or special conditions (Floods, earthquake, etc.)
Simulate effects of mitigation measures and pick most suitable ones
Design & construction
Aging issues
Natural disasters
Material choices
Spillway gate failures
Floods
Construction methods Construction failures
Concrete swelling Concrete cracking
Earthquakes
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Realistic Simulation for Hydropower: Aging
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Concrete swelling causes deterioration and can be potentially catastrophic for the structure Swelling concerned
Behavior
132m dam built roughly 50 years ago
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Realistic Simulation for Hydropower: Aging
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Simulation Insight
February
Validated! Analysis reproduces Calibrated the completeand time-history of the dam • Swelling model (thermal, moisture and stress-dependent) • Foundation stiffness can be used to predict Simulations • Foundation-Dam contact interaction behavior and assess safety and develop mitigation methods
August
Concrete Swelling in Existing Dams Javier Rodríguez, Patricia González, Francisco Martínez, and Joaquín Martí Principia 2011 SIMULIA Customer Conference, Barcelona, Spain
3DS.COM Š Dassault Systèmes | Confidential Information | 05/12/13 | ref.: 3DS_Document_2012
Realistic Simulation for Hydropower: Disasters
9
Understand
Predict
Mitigate
Improve understanding of failure process Causes and how can failure be prevented
Predict failure under operating or special conditions (Floods, earthquake, etc.)
Simulate effects of mitigation measures and pick most suitable ones
Design & construction
Aging issues
Natural disasters
Material choices
Spillway gate failures
Floods
Construction methods Construction failures
Concrete swelling Concrete cracking
Earthquakes
Realistic Simulation for Hydropower: Disasters 3DS.COM Š Dassault Systèmes | Confidential Information | 05/12/13 | ref.: 3DS_Document_2012
Big Creek Dam No7, California
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250ft high and 875ft long Made up of 19 blocks.
Center and taller blocks are Natural Disaster keyed and grouted Characteristics: Shorter blocks at ends are not
Shake, Floodand andsoSurvive keyed/grouted act independently
Big Creek Dam No. 7 on the San Joaquin River about 50 miles northeast of Fresno, California
Realistic Simulation for Hydropower: Disasters 3DS.COM Š Dassault Systèmes | Confidential Information | 05/12/13 | ref.: 3DS_Document_2012
Safety under seismic and flood load conditions
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To evaluate Dam stability during maximum credible earthquake (MCE) and probable maximum flood (PMF) Eliminate assumptions made during prior 2D simulations Include friction between blocks and dam-foundation interface Detailed modeling of dam foundation and canyon configuration Include dam-reservoir interactions
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Realistic Simulation for Hydropower: Disasters
12
Simulation Insights MCE Block 14 shows maximum displacement (up to .6 inches) – most sensitive area of the dam under MCE conditions
THE INVESTIGATION OF A CONCRETE GRAVITY DAM IN A NARROW CANYON USING 3-D NONLINEAR ANALYSIS Mike Knarr, Matthew Muto, Nicolas von Gersdorff, John Dong, Ziyad Duron, and John Yen 31st Annual USSD Conference, San Diego, California, April 11-15, 2011
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Realistic Simulation for Hydropower: Uncertainty
13
Understand
Predict
Mitigate
Improve understanding of failure process Causes and how can failure be prevented
Predict failure under operating or special conditions (Floods, earthquake, etc.)
Simulate effects of mitigation measures and pick most suitable ones
Design & construction
Aging issues
Natural disasters
Material choices
Spillway gate failures
Floods
Construction methods Construction failures
Concrete swelling Concrete cracking
Earthquakes
3DS.COM Š Dassault Systèmes | Confidential Information | 05/12/13 | ref.: 3DS_Document_2012
Design Exploration for Hydropower: Uncertainty
Automated and Systematic Evaluation of Key Design Parameters to Estimate and Optimize for System Robustness under Uncertainty 14
3DS.COM Š Dassault Systèmes | Confidential Information | 05/12/13 | ref.: 3DS_Document_2012
Realistic Simulation for Hydropower
15
Understand
Predict
Mitigate
Improve understanding of failure process Causes and how can failure be prevented
Predict failure under operating or special conditions (Floods, earthquake, etc.)
Simulate effects of mitigation measures and pick most suitable ones
Design & construction
Aging issues
Natural disasters
Material choices
Spillway gate failures
Floods
Construction methods Construction failures
Concrete swelling Concrete cracking
Earthquakes
16
3DS.COM © Dassault Systèmes | Confidential Information | 05/12/13 | ref.: 3DS_Document_2012