Layman's Terms Advocacy Update: 2020 Election Preview
Insurors Director of Government Relations, Jim Layman, J.D., breaks down the legal and legislative issues facing our industry. Election Day is right around the corner on Tuesday, November 3, so I wanted to take an opportunity to highlight a few of the most important races. U.S. Presidential Election As you may have noticed, we are in the middle of a presidential election. If recent history, polling, and nearly unanimous analysts are correct, Tennessee’s 11 electoral votes will go to President Trump. What will be more interesting to watch though will be states like North Carolina, Florida and Michigan where Trump won in 2016, but where polling suggests a tight race in 2020. If the President loses Florida or two states out of NC, MI, PA & WI, his path to victory gets very difficult. U.S. Senate In a closely watched and frequently negative primary campaign, former U.S. Ambassador to Japan, Bill Hagerty, beat out Dr. Manny Sethi for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate to replace retiring Republican Lamar Alexander. For all the interest in that race, the most surprising result on Tennessee’s primary night was when Memphis activist Marquita Bradshaw bested favorite James Mackler (who finished third) and Robin Kimbrough to take the Democratic nomination. Bradshaw spent about $21,000 on her longshot bid while Mackler spent over $1.4 million. Analysts around the country have Lamar Alexander’s seat as solidly Republican but it will be interesting nevertheless to see how the race unfolds given the unexpected primary result.
The Tennessee Insuror
State Senate One seat Tennessee Democrats are most hopeful to gain is District 20 in Nashville. Sen. Steve Dickerson – seeking his third term – is often seen as a very pragmatic Republican in representing a district in which all of the accompanying House districts are occupied by Democrats. Democrats are confident they have a competitive candidate in Heidi Campbell, the current Mayor of the affluent Nashville neighborhood, Oak Hill. Republicans like their chances as well, as Dickerson won by 12 points over Erin Coleman in 2016. This will be an interesting race to follow. Sen. Todd Gardenhire, who represents parts of Chattanooga and Bradley counties, faces a serious general election opponent in Chattanooga Assistant Chief of Police Glenn Scruggs. Gardenhire, also seeking his third term, has historically relied upon overwhelming margins in the Bradley County portion of his district to ensure re-election. Gardenhire won by 11 points in 2016 over Khristy Wilkinson, but the result may prove closer in 2020. Other Senate races should be fairly comfortable victories for incumbents, but Democrats have put forth legitimate candidates in District 22 represented by Sen. Bill Powers (RClarksville), District 6 represented by Sen. Becky Massey (RKnoxville), and District 14 represented by Sen. Shane Reeves (R-Murfreesboro) among others. The Senate will welcome a new face in District 26 where Republican nominee Page Walley is favored against Democrat Civil Miller-Watkins in the election to replace retiring Senator Dolores Gresham (RSomerville).
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