AFRICA Rwanda’s Prince: What Kagame’s Regime Says About Power in Africa

by Bella Newell edited by Lenny Adonteng and Libby Egan

In April of 2022, Rwandan President Paul Kagame arrived in Uganda. It was his first official trip to the country in four years, and his presence signaled a noticeably positive shift in UgandaRwanda relations. 1 However, Uganda was not the only country that saw a state visit from Kagame that month. In that same period, he also made state trips to Zambia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Republic of the Congo, Jamaica, Barbados, and Senegal. 2 In the months since, he has ventured outside of the continent to Singapore, Belize, and the United Kingdom. While many politicians choose to spend time gaining support from their constituents, Kagame has looked abroad, making collective endorsements part of his modus operandi. This level of international travel is excessive, even for a world leader, but it has become a trademark of Kagame’s rule. Despite this, he retains a strong hold on Rwanda, regularly winning elections with 98 to 99 percent of the popular vote. 3 Therein lies a phenomenon that requires further investigation: how does Kagame’s pursuit for legitimacy abroad support his power brokering at home?

A quick Google search will not paint a clear picture of Kagame. By all accounts, he is a deeply complex man, one whose very existence is bathed in controversy and contradictions. He was born in the late 1950s to a wealthy Tutsi family, but after the 1959 Rwandan Revolution, he and his family fled to Uganda. 4 There, he was raised in a refugee camp alongside hundreds of thousands of other Tutsis, where he would remain for the majority of his adolescent life. During his time in Uganda, he joined the Rwandan Patriotic Front, which began as a Tutsi refugee organization, but became increasingly militaristic. 5 Eventually, the RPF planned an invasion of the country, which led to the 1990 Rwandan Civil War. By this time, Kagame was a well-known leader in the RPF, and he played a major role in the fighting. After several years, a ceasefire was signed, but the agreement eventually proved void when the President of Rwanda was assassinated, precipitating the 1994 Rwandan Genocide. Following the genocide, the RPF transitioned from a fighting force to a political party, and Kagame quickly climbed the ranks. He was appointed Vice President, but it was largely understood that he controlled country policy from behind the scenes. 6 When the President began to be pushed out of power by the RPF, Kagame quickly took his place. 7 At the time Rwanda was still under a transitional constitution, which saw Kagame nominated and elected not by the popular vote, but by the government and Transitional National Assembly. 8 He was then sworn into office on April 22, 2000. At the time of writing, he has been in office for over twenty-two years.

His twenty-two year tenure is full of contradictions. On one hand, Kagame has been praised internationally for his economic planning, which has allowed Rwanda to develop at a rapid pace. To this end, the indicators speak for themselves. Rwanda is the only designated low-income country in the world to place on the World Bank Doing Business Index top 30. 9 The country’s Human Development Index score grew 199% from 1990 to 2019. 10 In 2018 alone, Rwanda’s Development Board registered 2 billion dollars in foreign investments. 11 Despite dips in progress created by the Covid-19 pandemic, Kagame’s economic success has been indisputable. He’s also been applauded for his ability to maintain peace in the country, a feat which many thought would be impossible in the long term because of the 1994 genocide. This partially stems from his background (as a Tutsi and a ranking member of the RPD, Kagame was credited widely as a key “savior” of Rwanda after the conflict) and partially from his ability to keep Rwanda incredibly economically stable. There are almost no wide scale conflicts, ethnic based or otherwise, within the country today. 12 At large, many Rwandans believe the historic wounds between the Tutsi and Hutu groups have been healed, and they credit Kagame for bringing about this lasting peace. While Kagame’s economic pursuits and peacekeeping attempts have been praised, he has been criticized widely for his disrespect and flagrant disregard of democratic practices in Rwanda. He has used his control over the National Electoral Commission to block many opposition leaders from running against him in the national elections; those who are not officially barred are frequently intimidated through violence or even jail time. 13 Diane Rwigara, who ran against Kagame in 2017, was arrested on charges of forgery and tax evasion shortly after the end of the election. 14 Although she was later acquitted, her case is representative of a trend with Kagame, wherein potential opposition leaders are jailed on trumped up charges before they can ever gain enough power to truly challenge his authority. 15 While elections do occur, they are not free, with frequent ballot stuffing and vote denying being seen by international observers. 16 Media is also heavily repressed, and radio stations, television networks, and newspapers all face government retaliation and intimidation. 17 The government has also been accused of offering bribes to social media bloggers to promote positive news stories and hacking social media sites to find political dissidents. 18 Public gatherings, which were already restricted preCOVID-19 pandemic, are monitored by police and frequently broken up. Torture, unlawful detention, and disappearances perpetuated by the Rwandan government have also been reported. 19

Perhaps his most obvious skirting of democratic norms is his rewriting of Rwanda’s constitution, which allowed him to legally stay in power for 15 years longer than had previously been permitted. Prior to his changes, the constitution had specifically outlined a two term limit for Presidents (individual terms are seven years), meant to prevent the overreaches of power seen during Belgian colonization or the pre-genocide government. In 2015, however, Kagame challenged these limits and brought forth a successful constitutional amendment which shortened individual terms to five years and extended his eligibility to run until 2034. This amendment, which was approved through a public referendum, is a type of constitutional maneuvering unfortunately common in African governments, with similar actions having already taken place in both Burundi and Uganda. 20 In using Rwanda’s constitution and so-called “democratic” processes to maintain his own power, Kagame has joined the club of African leaders who hide their autocratic tendencies under egalitarian pretenses. By all accounts, his obvious failures have barely impacted his international or domestic standing.

This is not to say that he hasn’t been criticized domestically or internationally. The accounts of governmental abuse outlined in this piece are widely known in the political and academic world, and Kagame has come under fire from many of the very leaders he’s visited. In August, U.S Secretary of State Antony Blinken criticized Kagame to his face while on a state trip in Kigali, stating that Kagame “underscored

[the U.S governments] concerns about the lack of fair trial guarantees” in Rwanda. 21 Exiled Rwandans frequently warn international audiences that Kagame’s reign is as ruthless as it is prosperous. 22 Reputable human rights agencies and reporting services, such as Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, release reputable reports yearly about the dangers of opposing the RPF. 23 Despite criticizing him, international audiences still show up in droves to create preferable deals with the Rwandan government, and frequently praise the ease of doing business in the country. 24 All the while, Kagame flies around the world, engaging in trade talks with high income and low income countries alike, and displaying his Rwandan “miracle” for all to see.

Although it may seem contradictory, Kagame’s multilateral initiatives represent the cornerstone of his (and many African leaders’) strategy to stay in power: the pursuit of legitimacy. His desire for recognition presents a classic political struggle, where in order to remain in power, politicians must be seen as legitimate rulers of their constituents. Although traditional political philosophy tells us that that recognition must come from members of the state, the development of the international order has created a space to supersede this mandate. Today, instead of obtaining support from constituents, all a leader needs to do is lobby for support from the international community to be recognized as the “true leader”. In specific terms, all a country needs is the ardent support of one of the five permanent members on the United Nations Security Council. 25 With this backing, they are able to shield themselves from any true international instigation or intervention. 26 If they also control all of the state’s force apparatuses, they essentially cut off all challenges to their rule on both levels.

Cutting off these international challenges is Kagame’s biggest goal, and it is one he has accomplished fantastically. His extended term in power and international recognition has allowed him to transform into more than just an office holder: he symbolizes Rwanda itself. By tying his personal identity so closely to that of the state (and by extension, its successes), he makes himself nearly impenetrable to criticism. For many, the uncertainty and instability of what life would look like without Kagame is enough motivation to want him in power indefinitely. This logic, which is frequently used by monarchies, is striking. In a country like Rwanda, where the stakes of instability are known by all, stability (even with repression) is the chief priority.

Kagame couples this posturing in a way many cannot: by being useful. Rwanda’s economic growth alone has made it a favorable trade partner of many high income countries, but Kagame has also worked to make himself strategically indispensable. One of the ways he does this is by skirting the line between his alliances with the West and other authoritarian regimes, namely China. Kagame is an open ally and collaborator with China, and has frequently spoken about the importance of the country on the continent. 27 Rwanda has also been a major recipient of funding through China’s Belt and Road Initiative and other preferential trade deals; in 2019 the Chinese government built a 27 million dollar government complex in Kigali as a “gift” for the Rwanda government. 28 In many other contexts, this level of cooperation and connection may discourage efforts for the West. In Rwanda, it has only empowered Western countries to pursue even closer relationships with Rwanda. In an international sphere where bloc politics make the “winning” of African allies more important than ever, countries like the United States and United Kingdom see Rwanda as vital to their strategic interests. By playing both sides of each other, Kagame effectively insulates himself on the international stage.

President Paul Kagame is an all encompassing figure, and one whose legacy is not easily describable. His presidential resume is impressive on all accounts, and he has the growth and stability of Rwanda to show for it. Perhaps what stands out most about Kagame is not his mastery of development or even his extensive record of human rights abuses. Instead, it is his ability to grab power and keep hold of it for as long as possible.

By politically maneuvering the international community and manipulating internal Rwandan practices, he’s been able to effectively cushion himself from any threats to his regime. So when the next Rwandan election comes in 2024, he will likely walk away with another 98 or 99 percent win. In an environment so shrouded from criticism, the only thing that may be able to unravel him is the one thing countries refuse to give up: their alliances with Rwanda and legitimization of Kagame’s rule.

References

1 Al Jazeera, “Rwanda’s Kagame in Uganda on Rare Visit as Ties Warm,” News | Al Jazeera (Al Jazeera, April 24, 2022).

2 Moses K. Gahigi, “Kagame in Charm Offensive to Expand List of Trade Allies,” Rwanda Today (Rwanda Today, April 25, 2022).

3 Jason Burke, “Paul Kagame Re-Elected President with 99% of Vote in Rwanda Election,” The Guardian (Guardian News and Media, August 5, 2017).

4 Colin M. Waugh, Paul Kagame and Rwanda: Power, Genocide and the Rwandan Patriotic Front (Jefferson, NC: McFarland & Company, Inc., Publishers, 2004).

5 Stephen Kinzer, A Thousand Hills: Rwanda’s Rebirth and the MAN WHO Dreamed It (Hoboken, N.J: Wiley, 2008).

6 Antonio Cascais, “20 Years under Rwanda’s ‘Benevolent Dictator’ Paul Kagame: DW: 17.04.2020,” DW.COM (Deutsche Welle, April 17, 2020)

7 Prunier Gérard, Africa’s World War: Congo, the Rwandan Genocide, and the Making of a Continental Catastrophe (New York: Oxford University Press, 2012).

8 Ibid.

9 Daniel Nzohabonimana, “What Makes Rwanda One of Africa’s Fastest Growing Economies?,” What makes Rwanda one of Africa’s fastest growing economies? (TRT World, January 18, 2019).

10 Maxwell Gomera, “Opinion: Other Countries Can Learn from Rwanda’s Development Metrics,” Devex (Devex).

11 Ibid.

12 Iaccino, L. (2015) ‘Rwandan President Paul Kagame third term bid: Millions want constitution changed “only for Kagame”’, International Business Times.

13 Freedom House, “Rwanda: Freedom in the World 2022 Country Report,” Freedom House (Freedom House), accessed October 4, 2022

14 Burke, Jason. “Rwandan Who Challenged President Faces 22 Years in Jail as Trial Opens.” The Guardian, Guardian News and Media, 7 Nov. 2018

15 Reuters Staff. “Rwanda Jails Opposition Figures for 7-12 Years for ‘Conspiracy’.” Reuters, Thomson Reuters, 24 Jan. 2020

16 Ibid

17 Human Rights Watch. “Human Rights Watch Submission to the Universal Periodic Review of Rwanda.” Human Rights Watch, Human Rights Watch, 28 Oct. 2020

18 Mudge, Lewis. “What Press Freedom Looks like in Rwanda.” Human Rights Watch, Human Rights Watch, 3 May 2021

19 BUREAU OF DEMOCRACY, HUMAN RIGHTS, AND LABOR, “2021 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices,” U.S Department of State (U.S Department of State, 2021)

20 George Omandi, “The New Assault on Presidential Term Limits in Africa: Focus on Burundi,” African Leadership Centre (African Leadership Centre ), accessed October 4, 2022

21 News Wires, “Blinken Raises Concerns on Rights in Rwanda during Talks with Kagame,” France 24 (France 24, August 11, 2022)

22 Hereward Holland, “Kagame’s Former Allies Warn of Rwanda Violence,” Reuters (Thomson Reuters, September 9, 2010)

23 “World Report 2022: Rights Trends in Rwanda,” Human Rights Watch (Human Rights Watch, January 13, 2022)

24 Anjan Sundaram et al., “Rwanda: The Darling Tyrant,” POLITICO Magazine, accessed October 4, 2022

25 Strand, Jonathan R., and David P. Rapkin. “Weighted Voting in the United Nations Security Council.” Simulation & Gaming 42, no. 6 (2011): 772-802.

26 Benard, Alexander, and Paul J. Leaf. “Modern threats and the United Nations Security Council: no time for complacency (a response to Professor Allen Weiner).” Stanford Law Review 62, no. 5 (2010): 1395+.

27 Eric Olander, “Paul Kagame: ‘I Don’t Think China Has Forced Any Country in Africa to Take Their Money,’” The China Global South Project, February 4, 2021

28 Stephen Paduano, “China’s Investments in Rwanda Raise Familiar Questions about Debt,” The Atlantic (Atlantic Media Company, August 5, 2019)