Scenario Planning Practice

Scenario Planning For YouTube Iren Liao | Design Management | Design Futures: Trends, Foresight and Intuition | Prof. Tom Hardy | Savannah College of Art & Design | winter 2020

Table of Contents Introduction

What is scenario planning Brand description Brand myth Brand attributes Brand challenge question

5 years scenario

Driving forces (STEEP ) Driving forces matrix (2x2) Driving forces causality Plot diagram Black swan diagram Scenario Black swan scenario Implications and responses

10 years scenario

Driving forces (STEEP ) Driving forces matrix (2x2) Driving forces causality Plot diagram Black swan diagram Scenario Black swan scenario Implications and responses

15 years scenario

Driving forces (STEEP ) Driving forces matrix (2x2) Driving forces causality Plot diagram Black swan diagram Scenario Black swan scenario Implications and responses

Summary Bibliography

What is scenario planning?

"Scenario planning is a tool that ultimately helps you make big decisions about the future direction of your organization."

-Scenario Planning: A Field Guide to the Future

Brand description " 81% of 15-25 years olds in the U.S use YouTube"

"1 billion hour of YouTube content is watched per day"

" YouTube has 2 billions of active users every month" YouTube URL: https://www.youtube.com Founded on: February 2005 CEO: Susan Wojcicki Headquarters: San Bruno, CA Employees: 2000+

"500 hours of video are uploaded every minute"

"62% of business use YouTube"

"73% of U.S. adults use YouTube"

"5 billions of videos are watched every day"

"80% of YouTube users come from outside the U.S."

Brand myth

Our mission is to give everyone a voice and show them the world.

We believe that everyone deserves to have a voice, and that the world is a better place when we listen, share and build community through our stories.

Brand attributes Rational

Emotional

Diverse

Communal

A brand that has all kinds of video, meeting up different audiences.

Inquisitive

A brand that allows people to learn, to research, and to look for what they desire to know.

Convenient

A brand that allows borderless users to share and watch a bunch of videos anywhere and anytime.

A brand that let users who have the same interests gather together.

Desirable

A brand that gives people aa stage to be seen.

Companionable

A brand that companies people when they are alone at home.

Challenge question

How might YouTube remains users to share their voice and stay ahead of the competition when other platforms launch similar functions?

5 years segment

Driving forces

Social

• People build their community on YouTube (all users).

• People panic about new technology • Youtube’s education: youtube creates their own contents since they have the data of people’s curiosity.

Technological

• Interactive video (with Virtual Reality) • More security required • More storage space is required due to the 5G

Economic

• Subscribing is the main market • Pet's economy • Embeded commercial

Environmental

• People start eating lab-grown food • Pollution is worse • More and more people lose job due to high technologies

Political

• International equal standard policy for streaming media • More legal principles to protects creators • Design in China 2025

Youtube communities Subscribed marketing Pets economy

Law to protect creators

VR interactive video

More Significant

Mapping driving forces Embedded marketing

Security required

New tech panicking

Certain

Uncertain

Design& made in China

Technological Economic Environmental Political

Date storage required Pollution Unemployment wave

Equal international policy

Less Significant

Social

Data of people's curiosity

Lab food

Causality Social

Technological

Cause: YouTube has people’s search history and analysis what people are curios about. It creates their own contents and meet people’s desired. Now YouTube needs a lot of people to research the subjects, and produce.

Cause: Information streams on the internet rapidly. YouTube has good security system. However, New hacker aims to YouTube and gets data away.

Data of people’s curiosity

Effect: Audiences want more and more video. However, good quality of video take time to produce. Therefore, YouTube start collaborating with YouTuber or other channels (Discovery, Animal Planet…)

Security required

Effect: Hacker sells the data to other media companies. YouTube loses their audience.

Plot diagram Rising action Since there are so much data, they are overwhelming by the demand of video.

People are looking forward to watch new launches everyday. Other than that, in order to conduct educational video, YouTube needs to deeply research on the topic and ensure the content is correct and appropriate for all the audiences.

There are not enough resources and employee to finish the tasks.

Setup

Yo u Tu b e h a s b e e n c o n t r i b u t i n g s o c i a l responsibility in gender. However, they feel like it could offer more ideas to educational field. By 2025, YouTube collects a tons of data by users’ searching record. They analyzed people’s curiosity and start making their own contents to meet people’s learning desire.

Turning point

YouTube got a lot of complaints from employees and they start review themself that what they could have improved. After a lot of brainstorming and decision making, YouTube decides to outreach professionals and other TV producing companies to collaborate with.

Falling action There is new high technology product launched. People start feeling panicking especially the aging generation. Now, YouTube plays an important roles to educate people and calm peoples worries about new Tech.

Resolution

Those collaborations create a win-win situation in this industry. They made a phenomenal quality contents for audience. YouTube has more business ideas coming out such as produce their own device. All of them increase their business investment and business collaboration. More commercial aim to YouTube as their biggest channel to boost their products and service.

Plot diagram

Collaboration

Overwhelming Secret Data

Comforting Pill Upgrade

Bla

ck S

wan

Eve

nt s

Black swan plot diagram

Collaboration

Overwhelming Secret Data

Aimed Eliminated and Dig In

Hey, come over!

Let's answer the questions!

5 Years Scenario

Secret Data

In this data booming era, YouTube has that secret key to understand people’s curiosity, being one of the biggest searching engines and it owns tons of data by people’s searching engine. YouTube considers offering more ideas to educational field. It analyzed people’s curiosity and starts making own contents to meet people’s learning desire.

This channel is subscribed by 70 million people around the world in three months, including the curiosity about the universe to under the sea. YouTube also includes daily useful contents such as how to do tax return during spring.

Overwhelming

Due to the fact that data updating rapidly, YouTube us overwhelming the amount of work they are never going to launch them in time with best quality.

People are looking forward to watching new launches every day. However, YouTube would love to be a trustworthy media, YouTube needs to deeply research about the topic and ensure the content is correct and appropriate for all the audiences. Being a world leading media brand, YouTube couldn’t without decision making; however, lacking researchers and scholars in various fields becomes a serious problem. YouTube realized that it can’t afford this heavy workload.

Collaboration

YouTube was known as a dream company, providing employees various working environment; however, YouTube got a lot of complaints from employees due to this new launched project. Employees get overtime, exhausted and some of them even quit. YouTube starts review itself that what it could has improved. After a lot of brainstorming and decision making, YouTube decides to outreach professionals and other TV producing companies to collaborate with.

YouTube as a bridge, collaborating with Discovery and Famous backpackers. Collaborators need to research on the topic YouTube provides, working with filming group and conduct the content in a limit period. It has been known as intense project; yet, it beloved by not only the audiences and the collaborators. YouTube build the communities for various filed scholars and provides them a chance to cross-discipline collaborate and have fun.

Comforting pill

With the advance of science and technology, YouTube not only plays an entertainment role but also plays an educational role in the society. More and more new technological products are launched such as the utilized of wide spreading virtual reality and artificial intelligence. People feel panic, especially senior populations, since they can’t get the new knowledge well.

Online shopping is trendy. People even shop their groceries online which are delivered to your door by a complete stranger. Online grocery shop provide user a VR function to select fresh vegetable and meat. It is an intelligence function for those who don’t have mobility such as aging people. However, this technology barriers confuse them, and they do not apply this function. In this condition, media heading brand, YouTube, take the responsibility, starting teaching people how to adapt new technology.

Upgrade

YouTube has been taking the social responsibility.

It’s not only being smart for the company but also educating the audiences. Those collaborations create a win-win situation in different industries.

Collaborators contribute their professions and bring what they good at to this YouTube channel team, giving audiences correct and valuable information and knowledge. This YouTube Collaboration projects provide more opportunities between different fields, building up their collaborative network and trigger more ideation.

This channel which YouTube created themselves is able to involve various discipline due to the amazing collaboration. Other than that, the collaboration works make the phenomenal quality contents for audiences.

YouTube has more business ideas coming out such as produce their own device. All of them increase their business investment and business collaboration. More commercial aim to YouTube as their biggest channel to boost their products and service.

Implications

Huge volume of data

Response: YouTube’s education: youtube creates their own contents since they have the data of people’s curiosity.

People panic about new technology

Response: YouTube's channel tries to answer people's question based on the news, trend, and their data base ( search history).

They also assist people to understand how does new technology work.

Black Swan Event

Aimed

5 Years Scenario

Secret Data

In this data booming era, YouTube has that secret key to understand people’s curiosity, being one of the biggest searching engines and it owns tons of data by people’s searching engine. YouTube considers offering more ideas to educational field. It analyzed people’s curiosity and starts making own contents to meet people’s learning desire.

This channel is subscribed by 70 million people around the world in three months, including the curiosity about the universe to under the sea. YouTube also includes daily useful contents such as how to do tax return during spring.

Overwhelming

Due to the fact that data updating rapidly, YouTube us overwhelming the amount of work they are never going to launch them in time with best quality.

People are looking forward to watching new launches every day. However, YouTube would love to be a trustworthy media, YouTube needs to deeply research about the topic and ensure the content is correct and appropriate for all the audiences. Being a world leading media brand, YouTube couldn’t without decision making; however, lacking researchers and scholars in various fields becomes a serious problem. YouTube realized that it can’t afford this heavy workload.

Collaboration

YouTube was known as a dream company, providing employees various working environment; however, YouTube got a lot of complaints from employees due to this new launched project. Employees get overtime, exhausted and some of them even quit. YouTube starts review itself that what it could has improved. After a lot of brainstorming and decision making, YouTube decides to outreach professionals and other TV producing companies to collaborate with.

YouTube as a bridge, collaborating with Discovery and Famous backpackers. Collaborators need to research on the topic YouTube provides, working with filming group and conduct the content in a limit period. It has been known as intense project; yet, it beloved by not only the audiences and the collaborators. YouTube build the communities for various filed scholars and provides them a chance to cross-discipline collaborate and have fun.

Bo

s b m

Aimed

YouTube has been the first option of video channel all around the world since the own channel was launched. Most of the family in the United States stop subscribing the paid TV, remaining their loyalty to YouTube. Unfortunately, it leads to the threat that the terrorist aims to YouTube as the channel to spread the video and panic the society.

Since USA killed the terrorist group’s leader, the group has been warning that Americans would pay for the death and vowed to exact revenge for the leader. On Nov. 22. 2025, 3:20pm, while 15 million people are watching YouTube, suddenly, YouTube crushes. The treating clip shown, declaring the movement the terrorist group is going to take. YouTube is immediately called by government and fix the security guard and upgrade YouTube’s security level as safe as government.

Eliminated and Dig In

YouTube apologies to audiences and states their confidence for USA government. It did cause some panicking vibe in the air and people’s doubts of YouTube’s security.

However, Good thing is that it doesn’t affect audiences’ loyalty to YouTube. YouTube still remain the first place of media.

Government asks YouTube to guide USA citizens to a right direction. Do not freak out. Don’t not lose the trust of the country. It’s also a perfect opportunity for YouTube to touch the sensitive topic and make contents for audiences who are curious about the case. YouTube try to ask for permission to disclose the detail of what happened.

Implications - Black swan

Required security

Response: YouTube upgrads its security as government level since YouTube is the leading media channel in the world and there are 2 billions active users on YouTube every month.

Huge volume of data

Response: YouTube create their own channel. Meanwhile, YouTube communicates with users through this channel and get users' loyality back.

10 years segment

Driving forces

Social Senior YouTuber YouTube hires talented or educated senior employees and create their own channel by categories.

Homebody People rather stay home most of the time.

Distance between people

Technological Electricity products sell bad Since senior citizen is most of the population, they are not easy to adopt new technology.

Google hardware product Youtube owned by google. People get adopting by google products and youtube will be everywhere.

AI friends In order to against loneliness and feel belonging, everyone has a AI friend and it could be their best friend.

Human implant chip in brain People start to adopt and try this new concept.

Driving forces

Economic Senior employees By aging society, there are not enough young people to take good care of seniors.

Streaming service crisis In past 10 years, it would probably hit an economic crisis. People are not getting good life.They are getting poor and not be able to afford “non-necessary” service, especially entertainment.

Travel industry blooms People travel to islands where will be swallowed by rising sea level

Environment Bad air pollution Most of entrance of buildings have a purifier cabin to prevent pollution to get into buildings Public transportation popularized Since air pollution is getting worse, government constructed more “working” public transportation Senior citizen friendly Global water crisis

Driving forces

Political Politicians communicate with people through social media Disclosing and narrowing the gap between people and political YouTube as official media Governments try to purchase YouTube as officially national media A handful of global power Many handful countries are exhibiting semi-imperial tendencies

VR interactive video

Streaming service crisis

AI friends

More Significant

Mapping driving forces

Google hardware product

Senior YouTuber YouTube as official media

YouTube political channel Travel industry bloom

Certain

Senior employees

Low of demand for eletricity products

Social

Political

Anti-social Air pollution Water shortage

Less Significant

Environmental

A handful of global power

Homebody

Technological Economic

Uncertain

Public transportation Senior citizen friendly city

Subscribed transportation

Causality

Technological

Social

Cause: Low-cost and affordable hardware products are popularized.

Institute, organization, government, and family use Google products.

Cause: The aging population is hitting the whole world. YouTube provide classes for seniors to learn how to produce video and join this community.

Effect: It leads Google to dominate the industry. They are able to get data easier.

Effect: It leads more seniors start watching YouTube and create more potential market and topics.

Google hardware product

Senior YouTuber

Causality

Political

Political

Cause: People use YouTube as the major information receiver. As long as the world become one hangul power, government will purchase YouTube as official media. Some of the contents won’t be able to show in some counties.

Cause: People use YouTube to search News instead of TV channels. In this way, YouTube creates a political channel to meet audiences need.

YouTube as official media

Effect: Culture different make this official media difficult. It leads to several culture conflict about the contents.

YouTube political channel

Effect: Parties try to bribe YouTube. It puts YouTube into a dilemma situation.

Plot diagram Rising action YouTube provides classes in local communities.

It is not quit a lot for people to join in. Other than that, it is still very confusing for them since there are so many different brands, model out there in the market. Seniors feel frustrated and refused to get into it again.

Setup

By the growing numbers of aging population in the United State, YouTube would love to expand their service to more senior citizens oriented.

They tried to engage seniors by different ways.

However, it doesn’t work out successfully.

Seniors citizen needs more assistants for dealing with technological devices.

Turning point

YouTube launches their own devices which is very user friendly, simple, and low cost. It launches different products system for two main user groups, YouTubers and audiences.

Since the products makes YouTube is easier to access, it becomes popular and most of the family own one. It kills seniors’ boredness and guides some of them to a new career.

There is “Senior YouTubers” coming out in this field.

Falling action Senior citizens conduct good contents but less quality of design. They focus on sharing experience, storytelling or exploring their boundaries. Yet, YouTube considers that videos have to take beauty into account. So that people are more welling to spend time on it. It launches new function to provide extra help services or tools for senior YouTubers such as editing.

Resolution YouTube launched their own devices and help seniors or non-non-technological people engage with YouTube without struggling. It creates a new opportunity for seniors to start up their new career, build interest and community. Although this user group needs extra help, it increases YouTube’s contents diversity and connects more people together.

Plot diagram Business New Blood

Frustration New Target

Extra Help Share the Seasoned

Frustration New Target

Bla

Business New Blood

ck S

wan

Eve

nt s

Black swan plot diagram

The catastrophic hits Plan B

The seasoned YouTubers 10 Years Scenario

New Target By the growing numbers of aging population in the United State, YouTube would love to expand their service to more senior citizens oriented.

YouTube provides the contents which senior audiences might be interested in. Other than that, YouTube starts a humancentered research to gain better understanding for senior users.

They go out to the market and conduct interviews with seniors who are YouTube users and who are not YouTube users. The research team spoke to them and listen to them. YouTube changed their user experience interface in order to be more senior user friendly.

Frustration

YouTube provides classes in local communities, trying to help senior users in a more direct way. YouTube tries to engage seniors by different ways such as taking place local events in senior citizen communities and senior living centers.

In the local educating senior users project, YouTube provides teachers and volunteers, engaging seniors’ users in this steaming media service. However, it doesn’t work out successfully. Firstly, the extra help session YouTube provides is temporary. Obviously, what senior users need are patiently and continually assisting at any time to deal with technological devices. YouTube tends to help through local providers and directly assist; yet, the short-term workshop doesn’t work efficiently.

Secondly, it is still very confusing for senior users since there are so many different brands, models out there in the market. Senior users always get different answers and different suggestions by different products’ users. Seniors feel frustrated and refused to get into it again. Last but not the least, it is not quit a lot for people to join in due to human resource and participants will.

Business new blood

YouTube launches their own devices and service which are very user friendly, simple, and low cost. It launches different products system for two main user groups, YouTubers and audiences.

The exclusive device for audiences offers them a better and easier way to enjoy the entertainment. Meanwhile, the amazing product for YouTubers is a service which contains all the resources and providers that could collaborate with. It also provides the video editing classes, more workshop to attend, and more skill to learn.

Since the products makes YouTube is easier to access, it becomes popular and most of the family own one. It kills seniors’ boredness and guides some seniors to a new career. There is “Seasoned YouTubers” coming out in this field.

Extra Help

The seasoned YouTubers conduct good contents but less quality of design even though they have the YouTuber service. They focus on sharing experience, storytelling or exploring their boundaries; however, it’s quite important that putting effort on beautify video to attract audience.

YouTube believe the importance of visual.

It represents a brand, a person, and a youtuber.

YouTube launches a new function to provide extra help services or tools for the seasoned YouTubers.

This services not only get credibility but also get more popular in different users’ segments.

Share the seasoned

YouTube tends to give everyone a voice and a stage to share their stories. Due to this brand mission, seasoned ones are more than welcome to join YouTube and share their experiences, skill, and what they love to do.

Though launching new service and device, YouTube successfully earn users’ reliability. Users enjoy the extra help and function, especially people who are non- technological people. They can pay attention to showing what they want to share and engage with YouTube without struggling. It creates a new opportunity for seniors to start up their new career, build interest and community. Although this user group needs extra help, it increases YouTube’s contents diversity and connects more people together.

Implications Senior employees

Response: YouTube takes senior into account, providing extra help to assist them.

Senior YouTuber

Response: YouTube lanched new service product to make the videomaking process easier for them.

Homebody

Response: YouTube channel provider good content to consume their time.

Electricity products sell bad but Google launchs their product.

Response: Their product is "low-cost and user friendly" and providing service to assist their product.

Black Swan Event

Wiped Out 10 Years Scenario

New Target By the growing numbers of aging population in the United State, YouTube would love to expand their service to more senior citizens oriented.

YouTube provides the contents which senior audiences might be interested in. Other than that, YouTube starts a humancentered research to gain better understanding for senior users.

They go out to the market and conduct interviews with seniors who are YouTube users and who are not YouTube users. The research team spoke to them and listen to them. YouTube changed their user experience interface in order to be more senior user friendly.

Frustration

YouTube provides classes in local communities, trying to help senior users in a more direct way. YouTube tries to engage seniors by different ways such as taking place local events in senior citizen communities and senior living centers.

In the local educating senior users project, YouTube provides teachers and volunteers, engaging seniors’ users in this steaming media service. However, it doesn’t work out successfully. Firstly, the extra help session YouTube provides is temporary. Obviously, what senior users need are patiently and continually assisting at any time to deal with technological devices. YouTube tends to help through local providers and directly assist; yet, the short-term workshop doesn’t work efficiently.

Secondly, it is still very confusing for senior users since there are so many different brands, models out there in the market. Senior users always get different answers and different suggestions by different products’ users. Seniors feel frustrated and refused to get into it again. Last but not the least, it is not quit a lot for people to join in due to human resource and participants will.

Business new blood

YouTube launches their own devices and service which are very user friendly, simple, and low cost. It launches different products system for two main user groups, YouTubers and audiences.

The exclusive device for audiences offers them a better and easier way to enjoy the entertainment. Meanwhile, the amazing product for YouTubers is a service which contains all the resources and providers that could collaborate with. It also provides the video editing classes, more workshop to attend, and more skill to learn.

Since the products makes YouTube is easier to access, it becomes popular and most of the family own one. It kills seniors’ boredness and guides some seniors to a new career. There is “Seasoned YouTubers” coming out in this field.

The catastrophic hits

YouTube devices are manufactured in Guangdong province and the manufacture has been doing such an efficient job, but the market’s demand still needs more supply. It shows the product YouTube launched is quite successful.

March.27.2030 11:23 am, a catastrophic tsunami happens in the South China Sea which was triggered by an earthquake on the Manila Trench.

Unfortunately, many cities are destroyed, including Guangdong. It causes a global rescue event that hundreds of countries sending donations, supplies, and love. However, the cities along the southwest coast of China are the biggest export trade centers, especially thrive for foreign trade. Countless manufactories shut down without warning. YouTube deplorably lose their business partners and couldn’t receive their orders. The unpredictable tragedy and the product shortage cause a serious loss for YouTube.

Plan B

YouTube has no choice but looking for next partner to pick up this order. Yet, the deals are not as appealing as the one it used to have in China. It is an important decisionmaking step for YouTube’s product development.

It is not pleased that YouTube has less profit from the product. YouTube is considering an upgrade design of the device to cut down the manufacturing costs. There are plenty of factors effecting the decision since the intelligent chip which could be installed in human’s brain is invented and scientists start adapting it to people. Which means, once human has smarter device or method to access information, the costs of new products development will be a waste.

Meanwhile, due to the fact that YouTube has a trouble of low supply of the physical products, it decides to make more effort to the virtual service, improving the functions that more senior users friendly, integrate the features that users always wanted, and looking deep into users need to create more activities for users and audiences.

Implications-Black swan Google hardware product

Response: YouTube manufactures its product in China. It's low-cost and efficient.

Human implant chip in the brain

Response: YouTube is considering to stop manufacture their product since human gradually become technology puppet.

Low of demand for electricity products

Response: Since human gradually implant micro-chipping in their brain, less and less electricity products are needed.

15 years segment

Driving forces

Social SOHO based society Since people prefer staying home, companies allow employee to left office and work at the house and online meeting.

Location-based community Most of people implant chip on their Brian. They track on location and socialize with people near by.

China is turning aging society.

People could only have one kid back in the days. Therefore, they don’t have enough children to deal with many older population.

Younger immigrants in USA USA has a transition of accepting younger immigrants since their aging population structure.

Driving forces

Technological Global travel in a day New train technology travels 3x faster than airplanes Autonomous vehicle People are no longer driving cars. They are working, resting, and entertaining in car.

Computer human Everyone implant chip in their brain. People no longer need any reminder, assistant, and book. The brain is a database.

Self-service Self-driving cars would be more common than individually owned cars by 2035.

Environment Hyper train It’s easy and convenience for people to travel around. Time saving.

Infrastructure was quit different In order to work with self-driving cars, government improved all the city infrastructure.

Water shortage The world's energy consumption will increase by 35 percent, which in turn will increase water use by 15 percent according to the International Energy Agency.

Driving forces

Economic Boost in Middle East They offer good deal to attract talents to work for them now. They have the potential to boost economic growth in Financial services, transport, and storage and technology industries.

China, India expected to become global tech center The economic gravity shift gradually, from the west to the east and from the north to the south. Developing countries in general see technology more as an opportunity while the developed world has a greater sense of technology as a threat,” said Andrew Browne, editorial director of the Bloomberg New Economy Forum.

Hotel industry decline Since hyper train, faster transportation and self-driving car, people don’t have as much as demand for accommodation.

Political Cyber security, or information warfare World War three is going to be a smart war.

Civil conflict in developing/ undeveloped countries Due to source shortage, many of the poorest countries will be hit hardest by increasing temperatures and rising sea levels, poor governance and overpopulation. People are furious and start civil conflict.

Developing countries are the main driving forces for future According to economics and demography, developing countries (Asia-Pacific region) are the main drivers.

(Blooming technological development and the struggle from climate change will continue to serve as context of this development.

More Significant

Mapping driving forces

Computer human Location-based community

Infomation warfare

China aging One day society lobal travel

Certain

Antonomous vehicle

Uncertain China&India are global center Middle east boost

Technological Economic Environmental Political

Different Infrastructure Water Hyper train shortage

Less Significant

Social

SOHO

Asia-Pacific countries are future driving forces

Hotel industry USA younger decline immigrants

Civil conflict

Causality Social

Political

Cause: People has chip inserted and they can detect what is happening around them.

Cause: Much fake information out there and people can not tell what to believe or even they got influenced by those incorrect news.

Countries use information warfare to win a better business or class in the world. Also, hacker could spread virus and paralyzed governmental and nongovernmental system.

Location-based comminity

Effect: It is easier to build community and create new opportunities.

Also, it is benefit for mark

Technological Computer human

Cause: People implement inserting chip into their brain.

Effect: People need no more screens and products. All the information and scenes could be conducted in their brain.

Information warfare

Effect: It might cause a countries to lose their reputation. Other than that, paralyzing high tech system will benefit some countries where have great industry for manufacturing.

Plot diagram

Rising action

Turning point

People only care about data, not quality of video no more. People’s life become boring but quick. They get information of solve problem in seconds. Therefore, YouTube combined with GoogleMap, making YouTube a local based community. It expects to make users more involved, a the accuracy of data collection. It allows people to make friends through the opportunity.

Falling action

CTR(click-through rate) and their product sales rate declines because everyone can easily get information from the chip inserted in their brain. We don’t need to spend time watching videos. They can capture a big picture and know the whole story right away.

YouTube ’s CTR didn’t really improve by this function added because people have gradually become technology tools. People only want efficiency and correctness of information. They are not as true and warm as human no more. For YouTubers, they have given up on making quality videos.

YouTube met a real obstacle.

Setup

Resolution

With the advance of science and technology, people adopt to install chip inside the brain. It was a very expensive decision at the beginning. Also, people were worry if there were any side effect. By the time of adopting, people understood it doesn’t have scary influence but make your life efficient. This is the time people accept the computer human idea. Since then, the cost drops to more affordable and more people start doing it.

Because of the rise of computer people, YouTube has encountered unprecedented difficulties. How to keep the audience and how to get the audience to regain interest in highquality and visual videos has become a big issue needs to focus on for YouTube.

Plot diagram

Hey Y'all

The Decay Human's New Chapter

Numbless Jump through the obstacle

Bla

ck S

wan

Eve

nt s

Black swan plot diagram

Hey Y'all

The Decay Human's New Chapter

Sneaking In The Way Out

The revolution 15 Years Scenario

Human’s new chapter

With the advance of science and technology, people start adopting to install chip inside the brain. There are not a lot of people can undoubtedly make the decision not only because of the price but also because people were worry about the side effect.

Time flies, there are many channels try to adapt people and the whole society such as Hollywood movies, news, celebrity and influencers. People realize that installing intelligent chip won’t get bad effect but becoming smart and efficient. There are more and more people accept the computer human idea. Since then, the cost drops to more affordable and more people start doing it.

The decay

YouTube sadly realized that this new human trend is not a good situation for itself. People stop watching video and turning to be efficientoriented and goal-oriented.

CTR (click-through rate) of YouTube videos and its product sales rate declines dramatically. Everyone can easily get information from the chip inserted in their brain in a second without typing and looking. People tend to not spend time on watching videos to get the information since intelligent chip can capture some pictures from the video and give the person a quick understanding, easily knowing the whole story right away.

Hey y'all

In this developing era, people changed their behavior. They only care about efficient, data, and correctness but the quality of videos no more. Life becomes high pace but boring idle. They get information and solve problem in seconds. They have plenty of leisure time but have no idea to spend.

YouTube try to get back audience’s attention, coming out an idea of connecting local communities and giving people more interactive activities. It combined with Google Map, making YouTube a local based community.

It expects to make users more involved, the accuracy of data collection. It allows people to make friends through the opportunity.

Numbness

By the time YouTube keep launching new features, YouTube ’s CTR didn’t really improve by this function added. People have gradually become technology tools. People only want efficiency and correctness of information. They are not as true and warm as human no more.

There are some groups realize that it’s harmful for the current social situation. It might probably lead human to a numb future and silence the world because no one care about others. There are less and less social events and it might become true that people predicted that all the human are going to become technological puppet. Those groups take place some movements to warn people. Yet, it doesn’t work at all. What people pursue is efficient and correctness. On the other hand, YouTubers have given up on making quality videos since there are no more audience care. YouTube met a real obstacle in the business.

Jump through the obstacle

Due to the rise number of computer human, YouTube has encountered unprecedented difficulties. How to return the audiences and bring the interests back to making good contents and sharing experience?

How to inspire people to speak for themselves again? How to create a new generation of media industry? Those are the difficulties that YouTube is trying to solve. This situation is urgent and negative. Nevertheless, no matter how hard YouTube tried, the numb human is not willing to change their efficient lifestyle.

As soon as YouTube decide to quit the game, governmentbased organization which doesn’t want human to be controlled by technology contact the YouTube headquarter and proposes that there are revolts movement are happening and they need YouTube. It would like YouTube and other big companies who are technology-against to join.

The organization desires to turn this revolution to be a dark web in this computer human new generation. This collaboration tends to fight for the situation, regain the value of human being.

Implications - 15 Year

Computer human

Response: YouTube tries to promot their new functions to attract audiences' attention.

Location-based society

Response: YouTube launches a location-based community function to help people to stay away from being a numb technology puppet.

Information warefare

Response: YouTube is the head of media channel in the world. It has the government level security to protect all the information.

Black Swan Event

Cold Virus 15 Years Scenario

Human’s new chapter

With the advance of science and technology, people start adopting to install chip inside the brain. There are not a lot of people can undoubtedly make the decision not only because of the price but also because people were worry about the side effect.

Time flies, there are many channels try to adapt people and the whole society such as Hollywood movies, news, celebrity and influencers. People realize that installing intelligent chip won’t get bad effect but becoming smart and efficient. There are more and more people accept the computer human idea. Since then, the cost drops to more affordable and more people start doing it.

The decay

YouTube sadly realized that this new human trend is not a good situation for itself. People stop watching video and turning to be efficientoriented and goal-oriented.

CTR (click-through rate) of YouTube videos and its product sales rate declines dramatically. Everyone can easily get information from the chip inserted in their brain in a second without typing and looking. People tend to not spend time on watching videos to get the information since intelligent chip can capture some pictures from the video and give the person a quick understanding, easily knowing the whole story right away.

Hey y'all

In this developing era, people changed their behavior. They only care about efficient, data, and correctness but the quality of videos no more. Life becomes high pace but boring idle. They get information and solve problem in seconds. They have plenty of leisure time but have no idea to spend.

YouTube try to get back audience’s attention, coming out an idea of connecting local communities and giving people more interactive activities. It combined with Google Map, making YouTube a local based community.

It expects to make users more involved, the accuracy of data collection. It allows people to make friends through the opportunity.

Sneaking in

The majority of human has implanted microchipping.

A woman, Jane, who is 43 and is a housewife, is raising two sons by herself for 15 years. Jane’s husband is away for business all the time. She has been thinking about getting a microchipping for a while, helping her deal with house works, children, and other tasks. Since friends and family are inciting her, she goes to the clinic and gets a shot in their root of tooth. Done.

Right after she went back to home, she starts feeling her brain is controlled. She can’t talk to her sons correctly.

Her sons got scared and reached out their grandparents and friends. Doctor diagnosis that Jane got virus invade while she is implanting the microchipping. It affects her brain’s function that couldn’t do the thing Jane wants to do but the hackers want. Also, it leaks her personally information away.

This virus was spread to all the people in Jane’s contacts, and rapidly spread to more people. The government take the situation very serious and shut down the microchipping network, having an emergency conference to come out solution for this harsh time.

The way out

Government believe it’s a serious problem of human who has implanted microchipping are controlled. It needs to conduct a comprehensive security check and upgrade.

Government doesn’t shut down the whole idea of intelligent computer human and the system; yet, human who have implanted have concerns and start feeling panicking.

Due to the fact that it is possible to get hack again in the future, people start to aware the negative side of being efficient. People realized that we were becoming the puppets of technology in the past a couple of years.

Meanwhile, people might be taken over by someone who has bad intension and they don’t even realize it. As long as we get hacked and people don’t rescue the situation right away, it’s possible to paralyze the community and even the whole world. More and more people uninstalled and extract the microchipping or degrade the feature of that. YouTube is gradually getting the audience back. The numbers of people are very growing very slowly. YouTube is trying to launch a security feature to gain audience’s trust and brand loyalty again.

Implications - Black swan

Computer human

Response: People have overplayed the micro-chipping. In that way, the whole of society becomes numb. YouTube launches other services and tries to get users' attention.

Micro-chipping got hacked

Response: Virus sneaks into the micro-chipping. YouTube uses its channel to calm people down and demonstrate its security level.

Information warfare

Response: This hacked micro-chipping is information warfare in disguised form cover. YouTube levels up its security and tries to get back to its users in this chance.

Summary What do I learn from this class?

In these past 10 weeks, I learned how to research and collect information for future trends and foresight. We utilized S.T.E.E.P analysis for expanding logical patterns for the company's future scenario. Through the developing process of this project, I am getting a better understanding of how to synthesize the data and demonstrate how it comes along with the scenarios. Through the reading materials, I gained the completed idea of scenario planning step by step and understand better from the examples.

• Schwartz, P. (1996)

The Art of the Long View:

Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World.

• Wade, W. (2012)

Scenario Planning:

A Field Guide to the Future.

Bibliography

Bibliography