RENEWABLE ENERGY IN UKRAINE
FACT BOOK
D E C E MB E R 2018
RENEWABLE ENERGY IN UKRAINE
EU4Energy
This publication has been produced with the assistance of the European Union in the framework of the EU4Energy Initiative and with the support of the International Renaissance Foundation. The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of NGO "DIXI GROUP", as well as Civil Network "OPORA", All-Ukrainian NGO "Energy Association of Ukraine", Resource & Analysis Center "Society and Environment", Association "European-Ukrainian Energy Agency", and can under no circumstances be regarded as reflecting the position of the European Union and/or the International Renaissance Foundation. The publication is also issued within the framework of the Think Tank Development Initiative in Ukraine, implemented by the International Renaissance Foundation in partnership with the Open Society Initiative for Europe (OSIFE) with the financial support of the Embassy of Sweden to Ukraine. The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of NGO "DiXi Group" and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Embassy of Sweden in Ukraine, International Renaissance Foundation and Open Society Initiative for Europe (OSIFE). This document can be downloaded on the website of DiXi Group (http://dixigroup.org). Design: Remarker Sources used: State Statistics Service SE Energorynok State Agency for Energy Efficiency and Energy Saving National Energy and Utilities Regulatory Commission December 2018
FACT BOOK
1
KEY STATISTICS Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) ktoe 132 308
126 436
2010
122 487
2011
Renewable sources
2012
115 940
105 684
90 090
91 657
2013
2014
2015
2016
Crude oil and oil products
Nuclear
Natural gas
Coal
Renewable energy share in TPES and national targets 25%
Actual National Renewable Action Plan until 2020 Energy Strategy of Ukraine until 2035
17%
11% 6,7%
2,0%
2,0%
2,0%
2,7%
2,6%
2
2011
2012
2013
2014
8%
4% 3%
2010
12%
2015
3,9% 2016
2020
2025
2030
2035
RENEWABLE ENERGY IN UKRAINE
STATE SUPPORT FEED-IN TARIFF (FIT) FOR RES ELECTRICITY: Granted until 31-12-2029
Law of Ukraine №555-IV «On alternative energy sources” with amendments
Fixed in EUR per kWh, stated in the Law
Duration – from commissioning until 31-12-2029
FIT premium up to 10% for local equipment
FIT values are now under review
FIT, EUR/MWh granted at given year of commissioning
200
100
0 2018
2019
2020
Solar PV
2021
2022
Small hydro
2023
2024
Bio
2025
Wind
2026
2027
2028
2029
Geothermal
FIT premium MW as at 31-10-2018
143
21
6 1
granted to 31 stations > 7% of installed capacity
SPECIAL TARIFF FOR HEAT FROM RES Law of Ukraine No. 1959-VIII “On changes amendments to Law of Ukraine on Heat Supply regardings stimulation heat generation from alternative energy source” from 21-03-2017
set as 90% of tariff for heat from natural gas indicative tariffs are published by State Agency for Energy Efficiency and Energy Savings tariffs granted to producers by local authorities and NEURC
FACT BOOK
3
ELECTRICITY GENERATION Electricity generation, mln kWh Renewables*
771
1 425 2 006
1 751
1 747
2 086 2 374
Conventional sources
*excl. big hydro
198 089
192 883
2012
163 776
2013
142 399
2014
139 482
2015
2016
140 134
115 851
2017
10m 2018
Generation per sourse, 10m 2018 Small Hydro Bio
193 223
Wind
929
2%
Solar 1 029 10.4%
64 446
34 559
Nuclear
Coal
6 918
CHP Big Hydro
RES share
6.4% 0.4%
0.7%
2012
2013
8.3%
7.6%
1.2% 2014
5.6% 1.2% 2015
7.1%
8.8%
1.3%
8.4%
2016
RES (with FIT)*
2017
10.4%10.4%
11% 7%
2% 10m 2018
2020
2035
RES (incl. big hydro)*
National Renewable Energy Action Plan by 2020
4
25%
9.7%
1.5%
9 929
Energy Strategy of Ukraine by 2035
RENEWABLE ENERGY IN UKRAINE
MARKET DYNAMICS Renewables connected to the grid, MW
31.10.2018
total 1.9 GW + 48% year-to-year
524 87 97 384
524 524
44 72 12 70
524 456
10 45 31
31 31
2009
176 199
2010
635
389
2011
2012
2013
Onshore Wind
Solar PV
50 82
47 76
430 10 49
524
71 95
57 85
327 295
283
283
405
430
2014
2015
1333 793
548
2016
Biogas and biomass
2017
10m 2018
Small hydro
Lost due to Russian aggression
Utility scale VS small scale 121
< 1 MW
1 174
â&#x2030;¥1MW
Solar PV
KEY FACTS as of 31.10.2018
FACT BOOK
160
Wind
383
Bio
Hydro
Licensees with FIT
310
RES commercial facilities
521
Household installations
9
11%
39
78 58
89%
households PV
6033
5
SOLAR PV 15
FIT granted, MW
3
1 3
1 3
158
176
66
22
100
208
457
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Ground-mounted
Rooftop-mounted
KEY FACTS Biggest station: 53.4 MW Voskhod Solar, Mykolaiv region Average capacity
Ground PV Rooftop PV
WIND
105.6 MW Perovo solar park, Crimea 5.20 MW
0.24 MW
FIT granted, MW 255
58
31
2009
25
2010
2011
2012
2013
57
53
2014
32
2015
2016
2017
2018
KEY FACTS Only 3 stations with kW-class generators obtained FIT - their total capacity is 4 MW Biggest station - 200 MW Botievo wind park in Zaporizhzhya region
data including facilities in Crimea and uncontrolled territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions
6
RENEWABLE ENERGY IN UKRAINE
SMALL HYDRO FIT granted, MW 19.4
16.1 11.5
11.4
1.2 1.8 0.9
1.6 0.9
0.5
2009
2010
0.4
2011
4.2
1.1 0.8
2012
1.1
2013
< 200 kW
3.2
0.9 1.5
2014
3.7
3.8 1.2
2015
200 kW - 1 MW
2.1
4.6
0.8
2016
2017
1.5 0.8
2018
1 MW - 10 MW
KEY FACTS >50% of objects - reconstruction of old sites
Total number of installations - 143
FIT granted in 2009 mostly for already existing small hydro
Average capacity = 680 kW
BIO POWER
FIT granted, MW 9.1
23.7 10.2
2010
2.0 2011
2012
4.8
Total number of installations Average capacity, MW
3.5
5.2 14.1
10.8
3.1 2013
2014
Biomass
KEY FACTS
3.4
2015
2016
2017
2018
Biogas
Biomass
Biogas
8
32 5.5
1.4
data including facilities in Crimea and uncontrolled territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions
FACT BOOK
7
GEOGRAPHY SOLAR, MW as at 31-10-2018
1 111 51
8 59
19 50
1
141
1
46
55 262
68
97 243 296
WIND, MW as at 31-10-2018
34
4 1 138 68
200 77 88
8
RENEWABLE ENERGY IN UKRAINE
BIO POWER, MW as at 31-10-2018
1
7
1
1 25
6
2
1
1
2
9
2
12
2
2
2
11
1
3
SMALL HYDRO, MW as at 31-10-2018
1 1 13
9 4
1
4 2 7
7
22
1
13 1
FACT BOOK
3
4 1
2
9
HOUSEHOLDS PV up to 30 kW
no license required
net-metering
simplified grid connection
6031
121 3021 1901
21
70
865
223
34 15 0
2
2014
2015
2016
2017
9m 2018
new installed, MW
total
number of new installations
KEY FACTS Average capacity = 20 kW
More power than commercial rooftop PV
Share in total installed RES - 6.4%
Key driver - profits, not energy savings
MW as at 30-09-2018
2.3
4.8 7.8
12.9 7.8
1.7
1 2.6
2.4
1.2
2.6
11.3 5.2
2.4
3.1
5.7
14.7
10.6 4.8
2.8
0.1 1.6
0.7
4.1 6.6
10
RENEWABLE ENERGY IN UKRAINE
FINANCIAL IMPACT Average wholesale electricity price, EUR/MWh RES with FIT 181
CHP Coal Big Hydro Nuclear
180
71
69 54
45 19
167
29
36
25
44
18
16
17
2014
2015
2016
163
161
64
67
53 19
56
16
17
2017
10m 2018
19
Cost on wholesale market, EUR mln Renewables
Conventional sources
363 315
292
340
5 121
3 776
3 981
4 216
3 687
2014
2015
2016
2017
10m 2018
RES share 6,6%
7,7%
6,8%
382
9,4% 7,5%
In wholesale price
In electricity generation
1,2 %
1,2 %
1,3%
2014
2015
2016
1,5%
2017
2,0%
10m 2018
Current RES support policy is not sustainable
FACT BOOK
11
KEY CHALLENGES ELECTRICITY FIT system will be not economically viable since 2020-2021 Duration of FIT not for number of years, but limited by 2030 Changes required not only for tariffs, but for support system as a whole Law on RES-e auctions in development Crucial for long-term planning and sustainable development, but focuses on utility-scale projects Current draft law requires improvements to mitigate potential risks Lack of focus for small-scale distributed generation Current support system failed to support active development in commercial segment More focus should be on meeting energy demand Grid constraints Most of RES located in the Southern Ukraine, growing issues with grid connections Renewables integration challenges Ukrenergo claims max. 3 GW of RES can be added to the grid w/o additional balancing capacities
HEAT Current support system does not provide incentives to competition Heat market reform is long expected Requires focus on value chain and stable supply of biofuel
COMPREHENSIVE RES POLICY REQUIRED
To concentrate on long-term suppport system, balanced in terms of geography and projects scale. Should consider grid development costs and renewables grid integration approaches
12
RENEWABLE ENERGY IN UKRAINE
FACT BOOK