newsletter_jan&feb_2012

NAVAYUGANews An Inhouse Bimonthly Magazine January - February - 2012

View of Rajiv Bheema Lift Irrigation Project

AN ISO 9001 - 2008 (QMS), ISO 14001 - 2004 (EMS) & ISO 18001 - 2007 (OHSMS) COMPANY

1259, Lakshmi Towers, Rd # 36, Jubilee Hills, Hyderabad - 500 033.

Tel: +91-40-2355 7196 Fax: +91-40-2355 7190 www.necltd.com

NAVAYUGAnews

January - February - 2012

Vichara Dhara Thinking Outside Of The Box !

Life has become based on what we have, rather than what we think and many times we are faced with being dragged into depression and total denial of the fact that we are not happy with all that we have achieved for ourselves, not only as individuals but also the way we choose to live life only based on surface material possessions and simpleton thinking patterns. Then when it comes to thinking for ourselves and finding a way out of sublime reality, we ask for answers to why we feel so unsatisfied with life, though only seeing it is based on materiality

third, by experience, which is the bitterest. Knowing others is intelligence; knowing yourself is true wisdom; mastering others is strength, mastering yourself is true power. It is the province of knowledge to speak and it is the privilege of wisdom to listen.

Know that one of the best ways to persuade others is with your ears by listening to them. It is the ability to take a joke, not make one that proves you have sense of humour. Be the one to be counted to cause happiness wherever you go unlike some others who may let that happen only whenever they go.

Life should first be taken on individually before it is reasoned socially. We are the guides of our own life through our own choice to think and reason. Belief in self and confidence comes with realizing that we are controllers of our lives and that we are the ones that direct ourselves where we wish to be and how we wish to experience life in all that it has to offer. The truth is that we have a mind in which to think. Since it is there, we might as well use it.

Most people are just happy to delve into the simplicity of life without needing to venture too far into thinking outside of the box.

They are happy with the popular and simple everyday surface events. Not choosing to look further into themselves for fear of not fitting in or that they might be leading away from the familiar socially accepted path of experiences. May be life is already too consuming on their thoughts, with how they are going to get through the day, let alone to think about why it all exists in the first place. This is the defining factor of life that really eats the soul out of all that is meaningful, and that is a world defined on people taking on the beliefs of others as their own without bothering to think for themselves and to even care to take meaning for their own life within their own hands. Creativity is pushed out of the door, only allowing room for robotic life, filled with the same insidious stupidity day in and day out, to the point that we become closed off to life, almost a shadow of our own possibility.

We walk then in life almost like we are half switched off, a simpleton that does no longer bother to think anymore. It shows up in our work when we continue to make mistakes, just from the fact that life has become so repetitive, that we are no longer participating in it through our mind anymore, totally off in some other place all together. Thinking is free and all can do it, depending on choice and our desire to bother with finding meaning through our own exploration of life and reality.

“Imagine life as a game, in which you are juggling some five balls in the air; name them Work, Family, Health, Friends and Spirit; and you are keeping all of these in the air; you will soon understand that, work is a rubber ball. If you drop it, it will bounce back. But the other four balls family, health, friends and spirit are made of glass. If you drop one of these, they will be irrevocably scuffed, marked, nicked, damaged or even shattered. They will never be the same. We must understand that and start a pursuit for a better work-life balance.

Philosophy is part of your subconscious processing that influences every decision you make, every action you take and consequently every outcome you experience. In many ways it is preprogramming your life. So where does this philosophy generally come from? The Culture you live in and in particular the culture that you grew up in.

By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection which is noblest; second, by imitation, which is easiest; and

(From the teachings of eminent scholars)

The senses, the mind and the intelligence are the sitting places of this lust, which veils the real knowledge of the living entity and bewilders him.

Happenings in NEC Recently awarded projects: 1. Piling works: “Pile foundation package (package-B) for river crossing locations for 400 KV D/C SasaramDaltonganj Transmission Line associated with Eastern Region Strengthening Scheme-III, specification No:CC – CS/5 –ER I/PF-541/3/G3”.This work was awarded by M/S Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd, Gurgaon -122001, Haryana.The value of work is about Rs.18.54 crores.

Salient features of the project: • Construction of pile Foundations for 4 tower locations for Sone River Crossing for SasaramDaltonganj Transmission line in the state of Bihar.

• Construction of Bored Cast –in- situ RCC vertical piles of 1500mm diameter with total 3744 RM (96 Nos.) length including boring in weathered rock, shell, fissured rock.

2. Piling works: “Pile foundation package –TP01 for 400 KV D/C (Triple Bundle) ESSAR TPS- Bachau S/S Transmission Line under Transmission system associated with M/S ESSAR power Gujarat Ltd. –coming up in Gujarat. Specification No: CC-CS/210- WR2/PF- 1293/ 3/G3”. This work was awarded by M/S Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd, Gurgaon -122001, Haryana.The value of work is about Rs.48.86 crores.

Salient features of this project: • Construction of Pile Foundations for 37 tower locations crossing creek of Kutch- Bugten for MundraJetpur Transmission line in the state of Gujarat.

• Construction of Bored Cast- in- situ RCC vertical piles of 1000mm diameter with total 14800 RM (592 Nos.) length.

3. Structural work: “Civil and structural works for water system facilities for Steel melt shop at Tata Steel Ltd, Kalinganagar.This work was awarded by M/S Voltas Ltd, Mumbai.The value of work is about Rs.31.58 crores.

Salient features of this project: Construction of civil and structural works at Kalinganagar Project for the following: • Converter Water System, Indirect water system, Direct & Indirect Cooling Water system for Caster &RH for phase- I & II. • Inlet, Settling Tank, Settling Tank PH & Sump, RCC Sump &Shed.

Newly recruited personnel at various sites/offices • The following personnel have been recruited recently at our various Sites/Offices to share their performance efficiency with us.

S.No

Name

Designation

Name of the site

1

Mr. N.Sharath Chandra

Site Engineer

KPCL

2

Mr. S.Bhanu Prakash

Senior Safety Officer

Corporate Office

3

Mr. K.S.Dhatwalia

General Manager (Projects)

J&K

4

Mr. M.Rajesh

Site Engineer

Lohit River Bridge,Assam

5

Mr. R.Suresh Kumar

Senior Engineer (Tunnel)

Himachal Pradesh

6

Mr. V.Lakshmana Prakash

Senior Engineer (Tunnel)

Himachal Pradesh

7

Mr. Muneeb Ahmad Tak

Senior Manager

J&K

8

Mr. R.Suresh

Deputy Manager (Planning)

Corporate Office

9

Mr. Y.S.Rathore

Site Engineer

J&K

10

Mr. V. Jalachandrudu

Deputy Manager (P)

Pranahita - Chevella -6

11

Ms. K.Harika

Site Engineer

Registered Office

NAVAYUGA News heartily welcomes them to our NAVAYUGA Group and wishes them a bright future.

“There are three ingredients in the good life: learning, earning and yearning.”

3

NAVAYUGAnews

January - February - 2012

Navayuga Initiatives for Team Building and Employee Well - Being A. Team Building : Current Corporate philosophy stresses that each member of a team should play an unstinted role in the success of the company.To constitute an effective team, its members must share a common goal, have respect for each other and be motivated by, to use the strengths of each member to achieve their objectives. Team building events are the tools to motivate and develop the employees’ relations to work in team. To emphasize this principle the following events were conducted at our corporate office, Hyderabad and Registered office at Visakhapatnam.

1. Marshmallow Challenge at our Corporate office on 23.12.2011: The task is to prepare tallest sturdy structure with Marshmallow on the top. Total 18 teams participated with each team consisting of four employees.

The best performing teams are:

1st Place - 28.5” by Dr.A Mohan, Mr.T. Ramanjaneyulu, Mr. R.L. Srinivas

2nd Place- 22.5” by Ms. D. Shilpa, Mr. B. Ajay, Mr. Sushant S Zingade

4

Special Mention- 28.5” by Mr. K. Venkata Rao, Mr. S.V.S. Ramakrishna, Mr. Gautham, Mr. G. Bhaskar

3rd Place - 21.5” by Ms. K.L. Sailaja, Ms. N. Madhavi, Ms.T. K.Kalyani, Ms. K. Sirisha

“Success doesn't come to you? you go to it.”

3rd Place- 21.5” by Mr. P.V.J. Kumar, Mr. R.Veeraswamy, Ms. A. Snehalatha, Mr. G.Srinivas

2. Safe Egg at Registered office, Visakhapatnam on 18.01.2012:

A. Employee Well-Being: As a part of the employee welfare, health awareness and check up camps were conducted by M/S. Apollo Hospitals at our Corporate office on 27.01.2012 for 80 Employees and Registered office, Visakhapatnam on 18.01.2012 for 100 Employees.The activities in the camps included •

Body Mass Index

•

Blood Pressure

•

DiabeticTest

•

ECG

•

Eye Check up

“Obstacles are those frightful things you see when you take your eyes off your goal.”

5

NAVAYUGAnews

January - February - 2012

Wave forces on piles – Stokes Second order waves (Harbour Engineering Series: Part - 8)

By

Dr Ir P.V. Chandra Mohan

1.

General Airy’s wave theory defines characteristics of a wave in its simplest form. It defines a sinusoidal surface elevation. But unfortunately, such waves exist only in the deep waters. Based on the various wave parameters and the water depth, many wave theories emerged. Stokes developed theories of higher orders namely, second, third, fourth and fifth order. Cnoidal wave theory is another. There are other developments like Stream function V. All these theories have some application or other. As mentioned, in the deep water, Airy’s wave theory is applicable. As the wave propagates into shallow waters, two things happen. First, the depth of water reduces. Secondly, the wave itself will undergo deformation from its deep water characteristics, like its height, and length, while its period remains the same. Based on the above parameters, it can be inferred that the wave will follow a certain theory. This situation is transient as the above characteristics will be fast changing. It can be said that a wave during its propagation towards the coast go through various stages that are governed by many theories.

Fig 1 Applicability of various wave theories (Le Mehaute 1976) 2.

Surface profile Le Mehaute compiled a key diagram showing the ranges of application of various theories. He had tried to connect water depth, wave height and wave period to create this nomograph. In the figure, H is the wave height, T is the wave period, d is the water depth and g is the acceleration due to gravity. In general, when the wave starts shoaling, wave height initially decreases and then increases and wave length decreases. Steepness of the wave increases and Airy’s parameters no longer hold good.

Many investigators tried to correlate the various parameters by mathematical formulations.

Fig 2 Wave profile shape of different progressive gravity waves

(Coastal Engineering Manual)

Approximate surface profile (with respect to space) of each type of wave is given in Fig 2. In the figure, Airy wave has the flattest profile and is sinusoidal. Crest and trough are equidistant from the Still water level (SWL). As one comes down to Stokes, 6

“The tragedy in life doesn’t lie in not reaching your goal. The tragedy lies in having no goal to reach.”

the profile becomes steeper. The profile is bodily lifted up and a substantial portion lies above SWL. The above characteristics are marked in the Cnoidal wave profile. The steepness is higher and the crest has gone considerably high above the SWL. Solitary wave has a profile that does not come below the SWL. It is a fact that for coastal structures, nonlinear waves are found more applicable than the linear one. It is needless to say that period of the wave does not change during its deformation. Another fact is that wave length in Stoke second order is the same as in the linear one.

3.

Stokes Second order Purpose of this paper is not to go into various wave theories. It is to examine the wave forces on piles as computed by Stokes second order theory. This is to be done in the same lines as was done for linear waves as in the previous paper of this series. Wave that fits into the range as per fig 1 has to be selected. It is proposed to make computations for a certain wave whose height is substantial.

Since, wave parameters are connected with the bathymetry, selected water depth should be viable for putting up piled jetties. The selected wave has a deep water wave height of 2.4m and a period of 9s. (Deep water wave length will be 126.5m) The water depth is 16m. At this water depth, wave height and length will be 2.2m and 97.15m respectively.

H/gT2 = 0.00277 …(1) d/gT2 = 0.020 …(2) The wave will have its coordinates in the region of Stokes 2nd order. It can also be seen that linear theory is not applicable here. But it is proposed to do computations using linear theory just for the sake of comparison. The wave is in intermediate waters. Stoke 2nd order wave has long expressions for water surface elevations compared to linear wave. For comparison, both are given below.

(Linear)

… (3)

(Stoke 2nd) … (4) Where, η is the surface elevation from SWL H is the wave height at the location x is the distance into the wave length L is the wave length t is the time elapsed in a wave period T is the wave period Please note that in stoke 2nd there are two additive parts. The first part is the same as in the linear theory. The second part acts as a correction to the linear value. nd Similarly, horizontal velocity of water particle in Stoke 2 is given below.

… (5) Where, z is the vertical distance from SWL as shown in fig 3 Here again, the first part of the expression is nothing but the value of u for linear wave. Vertical velocity of water particle is:

… (6) Where, c is the celerity of the wave Horizontal displacement of water particle from its mean position is given by:

“The secret of joy in work is contained in one word — excellence. To know how to do something well is to enjoy it.”

7

NAVAYUGAnews

January - February - 2012

…(7) Vertical displacement of water particle from its mean position is:

…(8) In all the above cases, the primary term is the same as that in the linear wave. For the sake of ready reference, definition sketch which was given in the paper on linear waves is reproduced below.

Fig 3 Definition sketch for pile and wave 4.

Computations The pile diameter is taken as 1.5m. D/L value works out to 0.015 < 0.05. So, the flow field is not affected by the body of the pile.

Reynold’s number was computed to be 1.135*(10)6 for a max water particle velocity varying from 0.65m/s at the bed to 1.07m/s at SWL. For comparison, Re for the same conditions for linear wave would be 1.277*(10)6. Max horizontal velocity at the bed and SWL would be 0.63m/s and 1.00m/s. The observation is that there is not much difference in the maximum horizontal velocities between linear and Stoke 2nd waves. For academic interest, vertical max velocities of water particle varies from 0.0m/s at the bed to 0.77m/s at SWL in stoke 2nd as against 0.0 to 0.78m/s in linear wave, which are almost equal. It follows that since velocities are equal, Re is almost same and CM and CD coefficients for inertia and drag force work out to be the same.

Horizontal acceleration of the water particle is another parameter that finds a place in the expression for inertia force. In Stoke 2nd, the max value of this varies from 0.44m/s at the bed to 0.70m/s at SWL. This is against 0.44 to 0.70 of linear wave. The values are the same. A graph showing variation of characteristic values of the above with depth is given below.

Fig 4 Characteristic horz velocity /accel vs depth The horz velocity and acceleration increases from the bed towards the SWL. This Characteristic is similar to the linear wave. Fig 5 gives the instantaneous water particle velocity and acceleration at SWL. The cyclic behavior is similar to that of linear wave.

Fig 5 Variation of horizontal velocity and acceleration with time 8

“If you would hit the mark, you must aim a little above it; Every arrow that flies feels the attraction of earth.”

5.

Force on piles The familiar expression for wave force on unit length of pile is given by Morisson et al (1950). …(9) where, fi – inertial force per unit length of pile fD – drag force per unit length of pile ρ – mass density of fluid = 1000kg/m3 D – pile diameter = 1.5m u – horizontal water particle velocity at the axis of the pile (calculated as if the pile were absent) - horizontal water particle acceleration at the axis of the pile (calculated as if the pile were absent) CM – inertia or mass hydrodynamic force coefficient Cd – drag hydrodynamic force coefficient Based on the Reynold's number, CM worked out to be 1.5 and CD, 0.7. The factor CMρπD2/4 is to be multiplied with acceleration to get the value of inertia force per metre length of pile. Nonlinear expression of du/dt is to be substituted to obtain the Stoke 2nd fi value.

Similarly in the case of drag force, the factor CDρD/2 is to be multiplied by u*ІuІ. The values obtained have been plotted. Fig 6 shows the variation of inertia and drag forces per metre of pile with depth.

Fig 6 Variation of force on unit length of pile with depth Magnitude of drag force happens to be smaller. One interesting feature is that the algebraic sum of these two forces which is the actual force, the pile is subjected to, will almost follow the pattern of the inertia force as it is more predominant. Maximum inertia force varies from 1.17 to 1.85kN/m bed to SWL. Values are the same in the case of linear wave. Max drag force varied from 0.22 to 0.54kN/m. This is against 0.22 to 0.53kN/m for linear wave. It is clear that the values are almost the same. The conclusion is that there is no difference in the max force per unit length of pile between Stoke 2nd and linear waves.

Fig 7 Variation of instantaneous force on unit pile length with time Total force on whole pile was arrived at by integrating the force on unit length of pile over the depth from SWL to the bed. A graph comprising of the two forces and their algebraic sum is given in Fig 8.

Fig 8 Variation of instantaneous force on full length of pile with time “Your goal should be out of reach but not out of sight.”

9

NAVAYUGAnews

January - February - 2012

As earlier, contribution of drag force to the total force on the pile for the full length is small. Max value of inertia force in a wave period is 23.07kN. That of drag force is only 5.5kN. Corresponding values for linear wave are 22.2 and 4.8kN. Here, peak values of drag force in the case of linear wave are slightly lower. But this hardly affects the total force (algebraic sum) as the peaks do not coincide. Peak values of the total force are 23.44 and 22.2 respectively in Stoke 2nd and linear wave.

6.

Moment on the pile Lever arm for the force from the bed level was computed by numerical integration. This was done for both the inertia and drag forces separately. In the case of Stoke 2nd waves, since the shape of the force diagram changes with time, the lever arm also becomes a function of time. They vary from 8.366 to 8.905 in the case of inertia force and 8.993 to 9.515 for drag force. This is against the values of 8.645 and 9.307m in the linear case. For computing the bending moment on the pile, fixity depth of pile has to be added. Graph showing variation of bending moment on a free end pile in a wave period is given in Fig 9.

Fig 9 Variation of moment with time Maximum bending moment due to inertia and drag force came to 398.2 and 99.1kNm respectively. Resultant moment worked out to 404.6kNm. This is against 380.0, 0.0 and 380.0kNm respectively in linear wave. Force and bending moment diagrams are given in Fig 10.

Fig 10 Force and moment in a free standing pile For a fixed head pile, which is the normal case, this moment will be reduced to half the free head moment. It will be 202.3kNm in this instant case.

7.

Transverse force The lift force will not have any change. The expression is given below for ready reference. …(10) where, CL – Lift coefficient KDm = a parameter that varies with d/gT2 From graph VI-5-127 of Coastal Engineering Manual, for d/gT2 = 0.0201and H/Hb=2.2/2.63 = 0.84, KDm is obtained as 0.50. For rigid piles, CL is approximately equal to CD. A graph showing the comparison of transverse forces and sum of forces in the direction of wave propagation is given below. It should be kept in mind that these forces are perpendicular to each other and not algebraically additive.

10

“Greatness lies not in being strong, but in the right use of strength.”

Fig 11 Variation of eddy force with time It will be interesting to see that maximum force in the direction of wave propagation is 23.44kN at 7.2s into the wave period. On the other hand, maximum force in the transverse direction is 12.49kN at 0.0s, 2.25s, 4.5s and 6.75s. But the maximum resultant force is 26.2kN at 2.25s and 26.1 at 6.75s and will be acting in a direction, 28.5o and 208.5o to the direction of wave propagation. Also, this will give rise to a moment of 450.50kNm at these instances. This is against the maximum moments of 404.6kNm in the direction of wave propagation and 216.63kNm in the transverse direction.

8.

Change in profile and applicability As mentioned in the beginning, Stoke 2nd wave provides a surface profile which is different from the sinusoidal profile of Airys. This more marked in shallower waters. A graph showing the surface profile of the wave at the water depth of 16m is given in Fig 12. The wave height is 2.2m and wave length is 97.15m. A linear wave profile is superimposed to see the difference between the two.

Fig 12 Surface profile: H=2.2m, L=97.15m

Fig 13 Surface profile: H=2.36m, L=74.01m

Fig 14 Surface profile: H=2.67m, L=54.22m The wave is then allowed to advance to 8m water depth. It will undergo shoaling. The wave height now is 2.36m and wave length is 74.01m. The comparative graph is given in Fig 13. It can be seen that the wave has physically shifted upwards with respect to the SWL whereas the linear wave has remained symmetrical about the SWL. Strangely, the wave is not in the right territory for application of Stoke 2nd order theory. H/gT2 =0.00297 and d/gT2 =0.0100. Please see Fig 1 to confirm this.

The wave is further allowed to advance to 4m water depth. Height increases to 2.67m and length is shortened to 54.22m. It is clearly outside the territory of Stoke 2nd. The surface profile is distorted. It is also a fact that it is approaching the point of incipient breaking.

The graph is given in Fig 14. Though the surface profile has been plotted to equation (4), the shape has no meaning.

This shows that territory of the wave has to be ascertained before making computations. Above computations have been made after developing a computer program. Once higher order of accuracy is desired, it is difficult to embark on separate calculations.

Presently this is being achieved by means of a set of graphs.

â&#x20AC;&#x153;Character is like a tree and reputation like its shadow. The shadow is what we think of it; the tree is the real thing.â&#x20AC;?

11

NAVAYUGAnews

January - February - 2012

PROJECT Civil & Structural works at NTPC, Barh, Bihar

Service cum Control Building Stage - 1

Bunker Building Stage - II

Main Power House Stage - I

Bunker

Sea water intake for SEPL at Nellore

Intake Channel

12

Pump House

“Anger makes you smaller, while forgiveness forces you to grow beyond what you were.”

PICTORIALS Four Laning of Armur - Adloor - Yellareddy Stretch from KM 308.00 to KM 367.00 of Nagpur – Hyderabad Section of NH-7 in the State of Andhra Pradesh under NMDP – Phase - II

BC completed on B/S from Km 315.000 to Km 315.500 Kerb painting & Median Plantation Completed

BC completed From Km 330.000 to Km 331.500 on both sides. Median Plantation Completed

Upgradation, operation and maintenance of KM 534.720 to KM 556.840 of Hyderabad - Bangalore section of NH-7 in Karnataka under NHDP Phase - VII

“Always bear in mind that your own resolution to success is more important than any other one thing.”

13

NAVAYUGAnews

January - February - 2012

st

41 National Safety Day Celebrations Ganga Site

NTPC Barh Site

14

“A successful man is one who can lay a firm foundation with the bricks that others throw at him.”

Analysis of Electricity Demand

By

Mr. Kiran Kolli ABSTRACT In this article we summarize our attempt to establish a model that would enable us to predict future electricity demand in India. Most demand forecasts use simple time history extrapolation techniques to make such predictions. However we have attempted to create a model that will not only provide a basis of predicting the demand, but also a methodology that enables us to quantify the dependence on other factors that influence demand. For instance how does Annual Rainfall or Population affect demand?

During our search for a method we found the concept of cointegration being used by economists.

In order to first understand the method, the following extract of the tale of the drunk/inebriated and his dog is described. Subsequently some prior research in this field is summarized followed by our own analysis.

COINTEGRATION The extract is taken from the article by Michael P. Murray of the Wharton Business School titled ”A Dr unk and Her Dog: An Illust rat ion for Cointegration and Error correction”: The drunk (person) is not the only creature whose behavior follows a random walk. Puppies, too, wander aimlessly when unleashed. Each new scent that crosses the puppy’s nose dictates a direction for the pup’s next step, with the last scent forgotten as soon as new one arrives.

of future values. If I come with a friend who asks me, “Where is that puppy we saw out here earlier?” I am likely to answer “Well, he was right over there when I went in.”

A second trait of random walks is that the longer we have been in the bar, the more likely it is that the puppy or the person has wandered far from where we last saw them. If my friend and I had been in the bar for a long while, I’d say about either the dog or the person, “But heaven only knows where they’ve got too by now.” This growing variance in location characterized the “non-stationarity” of random walks.

But what if the dog belongs to the person? The person sets out from the bar, about to wander aimlessly in random walk fashion. But periodically he intones” Oliver, where are you?”, and Oliver interrupts his aimless wandering to bark.They hear each other. Dog thinks,” Oh, I can’t let him get too far off: he’ll lock me out." Person thinks, ’Oh, I can’t let him get too far off; he’ll wake me up in the middle of the night with his barking.’ Each assesses how far away the other is and moves to partially close that gap.

Now neither the person nor the dog follows a random walk; each has added what is formally called an error-correction mechanism to her or his steps. But if one were to follow either the person or the dog, one would still find them to wander aimlessly in the night; as time goes on the chance that either will have wandered far from the bar grows. The paths of the person and the dog as still non-stationary.

Significantly, despite that non-stationarity of the paths one might still say,”If you find him, the dog is unlikely to be very far away.” If this is right, then the distance between the two paths is stationary, and the walks of the person and her dog are said to be cointegrated of order zero.This is illustrated in Figure 1.

Figure 1: A graphical illustration One key trait of random walks is that most recently observed values of the variable is the best forecaster

Cointegration is a probabilistic concept. The dog is not on a leash, which would enforce a fixed distance between the person and the dog. The distance between the person and the dog is instead a random variable, but a stationary one despite the nonstationarity of the two paths.

“Yesterday is a cancelled cheque; Tomorrow is a promissory note; Today is the only cash you have, so spend it wisely.”

15

NAVAYUGAnews

January - February - 2012

In addition to illustrating cointegration, the tale of person and his dog offers a reminder to econometricians that cointegrating relationship is not merely a statistical convenience with no behavioral content. Economic theory does tell us quite a bit about what we should find in cointegrating relationships. Granger (1992) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) test such hypothesis about coefficients in particular cointegrating relationships.

GDP elasticity with demand is estimated at 0.867.

Using the cointegration equation one can forecast aggregate electricity demand. The first problem of this procedure, however is to project the trends of the variables in the right hand side in equation. Normal time series techniques can be used to project them.

Finally electricity forecasts are made using the cointegration relationships.

PRIOR WORK:

kWh = f {Population, Income, Price/kWh, Price of Oil, Urbanization,Weather} Eq. 3

Using similar concepts attempts have been made by economists to predict the dependence of long term electricity demand on other macro-economic variables. Once the variables being assessed are cointegrated the resulting factors give an indication of the long term dependence of the variable against the objective. The method is effective in finding the relationship between seemingly random and nonstationary time histories.

Some prior work is summarized below: “Electricity Demand in the People’s Republic of China: Investment requirement and Environment Impact” by Bo Q. Lin. The paper uses a macroeconomic approach to develop long-run electricity demand model to analyze the main factors affecting electricity demand in the Peoples Republic of China (PRC). Key factors were compared with the GDP using the cointegration and associated vector correction method. They were the GDP, Electricity Prices, Population Growth, Structural Changes in the Economy, Efficiency Improvement.

Similar studies were conducted in other countries.

For Taiwan a study was conducted by P. Holtedahl et.al and the variables selected were;

OUR STUDY Based on the methods described above we have attempted to create a model that would enable us to predict the electricity demand in the Indian context for a period from 2011 to 2030. The demand projection was compared with a database of proposed projects (that have at least obtained TOR from the environment ministry). The projects were rated with a probability assigned for possibility of being commissioned and also for possibility of timely completion. The two time histories one of demand projection based on econometrics was compared with realistic likely hood of supply.The following flow chart Figure 2 summarizes the methodology followed.

FORECASTING MODEL FOR INDIAN POWER SECTOR

Based on the above a long term electricity demand function for China could be established as: Q=f {GDP, P, POP, M2, EF}

Eq. 1

Q is Electricity Demand, P is Price, POP is Population, M2 represents Structural Changes and EF is Efficiency.

Where L represents natural logarithm the resulting equation obtained after normalizing the variables LQ=0.856LGDP-0.037LP+0.338LPOP-0.469LM20.187LEF Eq. 2 The above equation indicates the long term equilibrium relation among the variables.

16

Figure 2 Schematic of the Methodology PART 1: DEMAND PREDICTION Software Gretl enables one to perform a range of statistical time series analysis on the time history data. This software has been used to perform cointegration using prevalent methods. At first we

“The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy.”

collected macroeconomic data from the Reserve Bank of India website. The data collected was from 1971 to 2009.The variables selected were as follows: GEN- Electricity Generation (GWh) GDP- Gross Domestic Product (Rs. Crores)

every other variable was treated as independent variables. Applying the Engle Granger method of cointegration the relationship of the independent variables against the dependent variable was calculated and the following equation represents the resulting relationship.

POP- Population (Million) RNF- Annual Rainfall (mm) COL- Annual Coal Production (‘000 MT) AGR- Agricultural output (GDP in Rs. Crores) SER- Services output (GPD in Rs. Crores)

LGEN=-0.47*LGDP+1.73*LPOP0.00737*LRNF+0.48*LCOL0.05*LIND+0.357*LSER+0.288*LAGR-6.09844 Eq. 5

MAN-Manufacturing output (GDP in Rs. Crores) The study aims to develop the equation of form: GEN=f {GDP, POP, RNF, COL, AGR, SER, MAN} Eq. 4 Figure 3 is a plot of the raw data showing all of the variables selected for the study. Raw data was processed and test for stationarity was performed.

Based on the initial results it was decided that the natural logarithm of the data (Figure 4) would be better to perform the cointegration tests.

The above equation suggests a fairly high correlation of generation to Population, GDP, Coal Consumption, Services and Agriculture Output.

Further each of the independent variables was extended using time series curve fitting techniques until year 2029. Figure 5 shows the extrapolated data.

Figure 5: shows independent variables

Figure 3: Plot of raw data of the variables selected

Figure 6 is a plot of two graphs superimposed over a period of 1971 to 2009. First being the actual generation data achieved and the second one is the calculated generation using Equation 5 developed using the cointegration technique applied on the selected variables. The resultant plot shows that the technique adopted tracks reasonably well to the generation data.

This is encouraging and it can be concluded that cointegration relationship is actually quite capable of representing the dependent variable for the projection period between 2010 and 2029.

Figure 4: Natural Logarithm of all the variables.

Using Generation data as the dependent variable

Figure 6: Figure shows the calculated demand vs. actual achieved supply

“You have not lived today until you have done something for someone who can never repay you.”

17

NAVAYUGAnews

January - February - 2012

Finally the Generation Demand was calculated using Equation 5 as shown in Figure 7.

Figure 7: Predicted Generation requirement

extrapolated using standard curve fitting techniques. In Figure 8, both the projected demand and supply curves are superimposed.

Figure 8 shows that there is a requirement of close to 800GW of generation capacity in India based on macroeconomic projections whereas likely achievable supply is around 500GW is 2029. When the probability of the proposed projects materializing on time is increased then the supply achievable increases to 650GW. On the contrary assigning low probability to these proposed projects will lead to 350GW of installed capacity by 2029. These probabilities can be varied to reflect issues such as policy stability, coal supply etc.

CONCLUSION:

Figure 8: Actual requirement vs. achievable supply PART 2: ACTUAL SUPPLY A table listing 363 proposed generation projects totaling an installed capacity of 267 GW was created. The table was organized in the following categories: Name, Location, Capacity, Parent Company, Environment Clearance approval date, Probability of capacity materializing, Probability of timely completion, Declared Commercial Operation Date. Probabilities were assigned based on the factors such as location, company’s prior history, etc. The resulting projections for capacity addition were added to the existing capacity for years 2011 to year 2017. For data up to 2010 published generation capacity is used. From 2018 up to 2029 the predicted actual supply is

18

Based on this preliminary study it has been shown that one can use principles such as cointegration and error correction models to get a reasonable estimate of future electricity demand. Depending on the variables selected one can further refine the study. As an extension to this study one can pick variables such as urban population, appliance sales, etc. with the intent of establishing better causal relationships between economic data and electricity demand projections.

China today has installed capacity of over 800GW with a population of approximately 1.3 Billion.

With India close to 1.2Billion today, it seems very reasonable that we should match the current installed capacity of China (today) in the year 2030.

If a simple curve fit based extension of available generation data up to year 2009 was done, then the predicted demand in year 2030 would be around 350GW. Clearly demand would be under estimated.

Next time one sees a drunk and his dog one should pause and think, for there is more to them than meets the eye.

“The only limit to our realization of tomorrow will be our doubts of today.”

Know Your Stalwarts Mr D. Narayana Rao has joined the company on 12.10.1992 as Jr. Supervisor. He worked in various sites in various capacities. Worked in : •

W J1 & J2 at Visakhapatnam port,

•

Strengthening of NH1 from Kurukshetra to Ambala,

•

Construction of Multipurpose Berth at Tuticorin Port Trust,Tuticorin,Tamilnadu

•

Multipurpose Berth at Kandla Port Trust at Kandla,Gujarat

•

Deep Draft Multipurpose Berth at Mangalore Port Trust,Mangalore,Karnataka

•

5.8 MGD Desalination Plant Intake Structure CPCL, Chennai

•

BMRCL at Bangalore,

•

Bhavanapadu Thermal Power Project,Tekkali,Andhra Pradesh

•

Mahi River Crossing, Narmada River crossing in Gujarat,

•

Brahmaputra River Crossings in Assam,

•

NEC,KPCL at Nellore,

At present he is working as Chief Manager (Projects) at Bhavanapadu. His parents are Mr D.Ramajoga Rao & Ms D.SwarajyaLakshmi and is a native of Visakhapatnam. His educational qualification is DCE. He is married to Ms D.Madhuri and the couple are blessed with two children Ms Yamini studying 6th class and Master Rohit studying 3rd class. Mr Narayana Rao humbly says “ Achieving the present position itself is an accomplishment which he never expected”.

Mr R. Mangapathi has joined the company in March 1994 and confirmed in June 1997 as office attender. At present he is working as office assistant. His parents Mr R.Ganapathi & Ms R.Geddamma stay at K.Katapadu,Visakhapatnam, his native place. He visits his parents once in a month. He studied upto intermediate. He is married to Ms. Venkata Lakshmi and the couple are blessed with two children, Ms Sampath Sirisha studying 4th class and Ms Kavya studying 1st class.

Working sincerely for the last 18 Years, Mr Mangapathi opines ‘’ Ours is a very good company and I am very thankful for the support and encouragement given by the company from time to time and very much satisfied with my present position”

DO YOU KNOW THE FOLLOWING WORDS ARE ABBREVIATIONS ?

SIM Card

:

Subscriber Information Module

PNR No.

:

Passenger Name & Record No.

COLD

:

Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease.

AIM

:

Ambition In Mind

Smile

:

Sweet Memories In Lip Expression.

BYE

:

BesidesYou Ever.

“Not everything that is faced can be changed. But nothing can be changed until it is faced.”

19

NAVAYUGAnews

January - February - 2012

IT IS ABOUT TIME YOU LOOSE WEIGHT! “Every Human being is the author of his own health or disease” BUDDHA You have got to know yourself a little better. It is apparent that you have gained weight on account of fat deposits of the adipose tissue that have developed under your skin and internally around your delicate organs. Obviously it does pose some serious health risks. It is time you start undertaking weight loss journey.

The Life journey of a body: As your body accompanies you through life, certain biological changes will occur at particular stages that affect your shape and weight. A sedentary lifestyle and excessive calorie intake can compound their effects.

Recognizing these changes will help you develop an understanding of your body and how it responds on your weight loss journey, and this will further enhance the relationship you have with your body and your brain. And if you think you’ve put on weight. You’re not the only one: as a nation, we are getting fatter. What’s to blame? A desk-bound day?

Convenience foods? It’s easy to point the finger at modern living, but just knowing what the problem might be won’t get you anywhere. It’s what you do about it that counts. You need a plan for action that’s going to work. The only way to lose weight and to keep it off is basic physiology: cut back the calories and up your activity levels. Familiar with the enemies of weight reduction: there’s defeatism, fatigue, stress and self-recrimination, to name just a very few.And there’s just daily life – it gets in the way.

Obesity predisposes you to a whole realm of lifethreatening diseases. If you are obese, you are at more risk of the following: Cardiovascular system: hypertension, coronary heart disease, varicose veins, stroke, deep vein thrombosis.

Breast: Breast Cancer (or gynaecomastia in men) Reproduction system: endometrial cancer, cervical cancer, menstrual irregularities, polycystic ovarian syndrome, altered sex hormones, prostate cancer in men.

Urological system: stress incontinence Respiratory system: breathlessness, sleep apnea

20

By

Mr. P. Ganga Mohan

Skin: sweat rashes, fungal infections, lymph edema, cellulites Skeleton: osteoarthritis, gout Gastrointestinal System: hiatus hernia, gallstones, fatty liver and cirrhosis, colorectal cancer, haemorrhoids Endocrine system: reduced growth hormone and prolactin, hyperlipidaemia, insulin resistance, diabetes mellitus Neurological system: nerve entrapment, neural tube defects Pregnancy: obstetric complications, Caesarian section.

Take what you need. Many people complain that they do not have enough time to eat healthily, take regular exercise and manage stress, but the issue is not always about making time. It is about taking time.

Taking time is only possible when you feel you are worthy of it. Being happy to take time involves raising yourself a few rungs up the ladder. Even if you are not at the top of the list, getting higher is important.

Taking time out is not about being selfish, it’s about self-care.

Our fundamental body shape – skeletal frame, muscle, body fat and distribution of certain hormones – is determined by our genes. Our basic body shape – whether we’re ‘big – boned’ or ‘petite’ – is pretty fixed. WE generally fall into four broad body shapes. I’ve categorized them as: pear, red pepper, carrot and apple.

What shape are you?

You are more pear if: •

Your hips are wider than your shoulders

•

You have a smaller upper body frame

•

Your top half is 1 to 2 dress sizes smaller than your lower half

You are more red pepper if: •

You have an ample bottom and bust with a defined waist

•

You are a classic hourglass shape

•

You are prone to gaining weight and storing body fat on arms and legs.

“Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm.”

You are more carrot if: •

You have broadest shoulders with slimmer hips

•

You have a smallish bottom and bust

•

You tend not to hold excess fat around your midriff

•

Your waistline is not clearly defined.

You are more apple if: •

You store body fat around your midriff rather than hips and thighs

•

You are shorter in height

•

You have a flattish bottom.

BODY LAID BARE: How hormones affect our shape? Some of us store more body fat on our hips and thighs while others tend to have long lean arms and legs but store more body fat around our midriffs. This distribution of fat is associated directly with two main hormones: lipoprotein lipase, or LPL, which encourages fat storage, and hor mone-sensitive lipase, or HSL, which encourages fat to be distributed in the blood and then burnt off.The amount of LPL and HSL may vary from person to person and from one part of the body to another, directly affecting our shape.

Mind the gap. Ensure you are regularly expending more calories through physical activity than you are consuming in food. If you Mind the Energy Gap, your weight will look after itself.

Exercise affects many different body systems.

Muscles need a greater supply of energy, so the heart and lungs work faster and more efficiently to keep them well supplied with oxygenated blood.

Blood vessels in the intestines, liver, stomach and kidneys narrow so that more blood is directed away from these areas and to the muscles. Regular exercise helps to reduce blood pressure and prevent the build–up of fatty deposits in the arteries, relieves the symptoms of peripheral vascular disease, increases bone density and muscle mass and can help to relieve depression.

Monitoring of some sort; if nothing else, it will strengthen your brain/body relationship and reinforce your all-important Template of Success.

Like any relationship worth sustaining, the connection between your brain and body needs nurturing to remain strong. What is most important is doing structured exercise at the right intensity for your safety, enjoyment and success.

Have a look at the chart given below.

• More LPL in the belly and less HSL in the lower hip area creates an apple-like shape, with more body fat distributed around the belly.

• More LPL in the hips and backs of the arms and less HSL in the upper body produces a pear-like shape.

This hormone distribution helps to explain why we still retain the same overall body shape when we lose weight.

Realizing an ambition involves a threestage process – a THINKING stage, a RESOLVING stage and a DOING stage.

YOU think about it, you decide to do it and then you take the necessary action.

So, weight loss should be easy!You: • Think about your shape and size and how to address them: • Decide on a plan of diet and exercise; and then • Take the appropriate steps to reach your weight loss goals.

U n de r s t a n d t he i mp o r t a n c e o f engaging nor just your body but also your brain in your weight loss efforts.

Come on make a beginning and set out on your weight loss journey.

“Movement is a medicine for creating change in persons physical, emotional and Mental states”-Carol Welch

(Courtesy: - Excerpts from Weight Loss Bible)

“Success is how high you bounce when you hit bottom.”

21

NAVAYUGAnews

January - February - 2012

MOTIVATION

By

Mr. S. Uma Mahesh

Dealing in Hope:

Challenge Yourself - Stay Alive!

"There is no passion to be found playing small - in settling for a life that is less than the one you are capable of living."

The Japanese have always loved fresh fish. But the water close to Japan has not held many fish for decades. So to feed the Japanese population, fishing boats got bigger and went farther than ever. The farther the fishermen went, the longer it took to bring the fish. If the return trip took more time, the fish were not fresh. To solve this problem, fish companies installed freezers on their boats.

Nelson Mandela "A leader is a dealer in hope."

Napoleon Bonaparte "Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, concerned citizens can change the world. Indeed it is the only thing that ever has. " Margaret Mead "Leadership is the lifting of a man's vision to higher sights, the raising of a man's performance to a higher standard, the building of a man's personality beyond its normal limitations."

Peter Drucker Responsible for Learning: Leaders "are designers, stewards, and teachers. They are responsible for building organisations where people continually expand their abilities to understanding complexity, clarify vision, and improve shared mental models - that is, they are responsible for learning."

Peter Senge The Fifth Discipline "Presidents, leaders, to be effective have to represent the whole to the parts and to the world outside. They may live in the centre but they must not be the centre. To reinforce the common sense they must be a constant teacher, ever travelling, ever talking, ever listening, the chief missionary of the common cause."

Charles Handy "The best leaders are the best note takers, best askers and best learners - They are shameless thieves" Tom Peters Kind Words and a Working Life of Thanking People: "If you talk to a man in a language he understands, that goes to his head. If you talk to him in his language, that goes to his heart."

Nelson Mandela Kind words can be short and easy to speak, but their echoes are truly endless. Mother Theresa "I believe that the mindset that allows you to spend your work ing life thank ing and congratulating people rather than being unpleasant to them is the mainstay of good leadership."

Tim Waterstone "I am a leader by default, only because nature does not allow a vacuum."

Bishop Desmond Tutu "The only test of leadership is that somebody follows."

22

They would catch the fish and freeze them at sea.

Freezers allowed the boats to go farther and stay longer. However, the Japanese could taste the difference between fresh and frozen fish.

And they did not like the taste of frozen fish. The frozen fish brought a lower price. So, fishing companies installed fish tanks.They would catch the fish and stuff them in the tanks, fin to fin. After a little thrashing around, they were tired, dull, and lost their fresh-fish taste. The fishing industry faced an impending crisis! But today, they get fresh-tasting fish to Japan . How did they manage?

To keep the fish tasting fresh, the Japanese fishing companies still put the fish in the tanks but with a small shark. The fish are challenged and hence are constantly on the move. The challenge they face keeps them alive and fresh! with love and light, Have you realized that some of us are also living in a pond but most of the time tired and dull? Basically in our lives, sharks are new challenges to keep us active. If you are steadily conquering challenges, you are happy.Your challenges keep you energized.

Don't create success and revel in it in a state of inertia. You have the resources, skills and abilities to make a difference. Put a shark in your tank and see how far you can really go!

“Weakness of attitude becomes weakness of character” - Albert Einstein

“We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope.”

ANTS Sometimes the biggest lessons in life come from the smallest folks around us.

All of us tend to look up to big people for lessons on how to get better. We are keen to learn the secrets of their success. But we forget that sometimes the biggest lessons in life come from the smallest folks around us. Now that's a good lesson to remember!

Take ants for instance.Would you believe those small creatures could teach us how to live a better life? Jim Rohn -- the great motivational guru -- developed what he called the 'Ants Philosophy'.

He identified four key lessons from the behaviour of ants that can help us lead better lives. Jim Rohn is no more but his messages continue to inspire. Here then, are the four lessons from Rohn's 'Ants Philosophy'.

1. Ants never quit.

Have you noticed how ants always look for a way around an obstacle?

Put your finger in an ant's path and it will try and go around it, or over it. It will keep looking for a way out.

It won't just stand there and stare. It won't give up and go back. We should all learn to be like that.There will always be obstacles in our lives. The challenge is to keep trying, keep looking for alternative routes to get to our goals.

Winston Churchill probably paraphrased the ant's mindset when he offered this priceless advice: "Never give up. Never, never give up!”

2. Ants think winter all summer.

Remember the old story of the ant and the grasshopper?

In the middle of summer, the ant was busy gathering food for the winter ahead -- while the grasshopper was out having a good time. Ants know that summer -- the good times -- won't last forever. Winters will come. That's a good lesson to remember. When the going is good, don't be so arrogant as to believe that a crisis or a setback cannot happen to you.

Be good to other people. Save for a rainy day.

Look ahead. And remember, good times may not last, but good people do.

By

Mr. Yagna Kiran

3. Ants think summer all winter.

As they suffer through the unbearable cold of the winter, ants keep reminding themselves that it won't last forever, and that summer will soon be here. And with the first rays of the summer sun, the ants come out -- ready to work and ready to play. When we are down and seemingly out, when we go through what looks like a never-ending crisis, it's good to remind ourselves that this too shall pass.

Good times will come. It's important to retain a positive attitude, an attitude that says things will get better.

As the old saying goes, tough times don't last. Tough people do.

4. Ants do all they possibly can.

How much food does an ant gather in summer? All that it possibly can! Now that's a great work ethic to have. Do all you can!

One ant doesn't worry about how much food another ant is collecting. It does not sit back and wonder why it should have to work so hard. Nor does it complain about the poor pay!

Ants just do their bit. They gather all the food they can.

Success and happiness are usually the result of giving 100% - doing all you possibly can.

If you look around you, you'll find that successful people are those who just do all they possibly can.

Follow the four simple steps of Jim Rohn's 'Ant Philosophy' and you'll see the difference. Don't quit.

Look ahead. Stay positive.And do all you can.

And there's just one more lesson to learn from ants.

Did you know that an ant can carry objects up to 20 times their own weight?

Maybe we are like that too. We can carry burdens on our shoulders and manage workloads that are far, far heavier than we'd imagine.

Next time something's bothering you and weighing you down, and you feel you just can't carry on, don't fret.

Think of the little ant. And remember, you too can carry a lot more on your shoulders!

“A man is not finished when he is defeated. He is finished when he quits.”

23

NAVAYUGAnews

January - February - 2012

I am Navayuga Project Manager

By

Mr. Kuldeep Sharma

tension builder for the nation

24

“Empowerment is all about letting go so that others can get going.”