2022
EXCLUSIVE PREVIEW
Celebrating 10 + Years of the Miami Report
April 2009
Miami is also marked by a huge number of properties available for sale: 13,200 homes and 21,600 condos, per Rick Burch, Chair of the Realtor Association of Greater Miami and the Beaches. That's a 2.5-year supply of houses and a 10-year supply of condos.
April 2009
Miami is also marked by a huge number of properties available for sale: 13,200 homes and 21,600 condos, per Rick Burch, Chair of the Realtor Association of Greater Miami and the Beaches. That's a 2.5-year supply of houses and a 10-year supply of condos.
ACTUAL: 11,502 Condo Available - Sold Out in 24 months
Mayor Francis Suarez MAYOR OF MIAMI
The Accelerated Decline of Residential Inventory
MLS
Single Family Homes
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES Total Active Listings in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties
AVG. # NEW SFH LISTINGS
TOTAL ACTIVE LISTINGS
1,750 20,000
AVG. MONTHLY SALES (2021)
16,248
2,500
15,000
9,495 10,000
ALL TIME RECORD LOW DEC. 2021
FEWER HOMES FOR SALE
-750
NEW ALL TIME RECORD LOW
5,300
EST. MONTHS OF INVENTORY:
4,648
SOURCE: MLS
5,000
0
DEC 2019
DEC 2020
DEC 2021
FEB 2022
6
MONTHS
SINGLE FAMILY HOME Price Appreciation in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties AVG. SALES PRICE
$915,314
100,000
900,000
800,000
$693,420
SINGLE FAMILY HOME PRICES HAVE MORE THAN DOUBLED IN THE LAST 3 YEARS IN SOUTH FLORIDA
700,000
$550,333
600,000
500,000
$447,425
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
2018 SOURCE: MILS AND STATISTA
2019
2020
2021
MLS
Condo
CONDOS Total Active Listings in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties TOTAL ACTIVE LISTINGS
30,000
AVG. # NEW CONDO LISTINGS
28,774
1,600
25.000
AVG. MONTHLY SALES (2021)
19,998
2,700
20,000
ALL TIME RECORD LOW DEC. 2021
15,000
9,342 10,000
ALL TIME RECORD LOW FEB. 2022
FEWER CONDOS FOR SALE
-1,100
8,149
EST. MONTHS OF INVENTORY: SOURCE: MLS
5,000
0
DEC 2019
DEC 2020
DEC 2021
FEB 2022
8
MONTHS
CONDOS Price Appreciation in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties AVG. SALES PRICE
700,000
600,000
$546,617 $516,768
$522,414 $508,883
500,000
400,000
2018 SOURCE: MILS AND STATISTA
2019
2020
2021
CONDO PRICES HAVE STAYED FLAT IN THE LAST 3 YEARS UNTIL NOW!
CONDOS Price Appreciation in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties AVG. SALES PRICE
700,000
$602,567 600,000
$546,617 $522,414
$516,768
$508,883
500,000
DOWN - 1.5% 2018 - 2019
UP - 2.7% 2019 - 2020
UP - 4.6% 2020 - 2021
UP - 10.2% 2021 - 2022
400,000
2018 SOURCE: MILS AND STATISTA
2019
2020
2021
2022
2021 Sales in the Last 3 Months By Unit Type For Condos Built Since 2012 COCONUT GROVE - FORT LAUDERDALE, EAST OF I-95 ONE BEDROOMS
TWO BEDROOMS
THREE+ BEDROOMS
10%
Active Listings By Unit Type for
ONE BEDROOMS
Condos Built since 2012
36% TWO BEDROOMS
15% THREE+ BEDROOMS
28%
TWO BEDROOMS 49% ONE BEDROOMS
62%
THREE+ BEDROOMS
ACTIVE MLS PRICING ANALYSIS For New Condos Built Since 2012 By Unit Type COCONUT GROVE - FORT LAUDERDALE, EAST OF I-95 AVG, LIST PRICE
AVG. $PSF
AVG. $PSF $1,800
$6,500,000
$7,000,000
$6,000,000
4 BEDROOMS OCEANFRONT
AVG. $PSF $1,333
$5,000,000
SURF CLUB FOUR SEASONS
$4,000,000
AVG. $PSF $1,049 $3,000,000
$4,478 AVG. $PSF
AVG. $PSF $818
ARTE SURFSIDE
$1,382,000
$2,000,000
$3,714 AVG. $PSF
$631,000 SOURCE: MLS
$1,000,000
$3,063,000
0
ONE BEDROOMS
TWO BEDROOMS
THREE BEDROOMS
FOUR+ BEDROOMS
PRE-CONSTRUCTION VS MLS RESALES 2021 Sales Absorption Ratio 2021 TRANSACTION ANALYSIS
35
40
35
2021 NEW CONDO TRANSACTIONS
30
25
35/36 STANDING INVENTORY
20
15
1/36 WAS PRE-CONSTRUCTION
10
5
1
0
DEVELOPER SALE
MLS RESALE
Karin Kimbrough, Chief Economist at Linked-In, says that the number of Americans quitting their jobs is higher than ever. Watch what Kimbrough told 60 Minutes!
Condos New Construction (CURRENT CYCLE)
Macro Future Deliveries for Traditional Condos Released Since 2012 COCONUT GROVE TO EAST FORT LAUDERDALE TOTAL CONDOS DELIVERED BY YEAR 2,448 TOTAL UNITS 1,224 UNSOLD 1,071 TOTAL UNITS 133 UNSOLD
DEVELOPMENTS
7 6
230 TOTAL UNITS 49 UNSOLD
339 TOTAL UNITS 153 UNSOLD
5
5 DEVELOPMENTS
DEVELOPMENTS 264 TOTAL UNITS 79 UNSOLD
5 4
2
3
DEVELOPMENTS
2 1
2022
SOURCE: ON-SITE DEVELOPER SALES OFFICE
*2023
*2024
*2025
*2026+
*PROJECTED
8
7
DEVELOPMENTS
9 CONDOS RELEASED 2012-2020 18 CONDOS RELEASED 2021+
9
8
3 BAY HARBOR ISLANDS
TRADITIONAL CONDOS (NO SHORT TERM RENTALS)
2
2 MIAMI BEACH / SOUTH BEACH
1
2 BRICKELL
DOWNTOWN MIAMI
2 COCONUT GROVE
SUNNY ISLES BEACH
1 5 FORT LAUDERDALE
BISCAYNE CORRIDOR DESIGN DISTRICT MIDTOWN WYNWOOD
18
CONDOS TOTALING
3,011
RESIDENCES
30 Year Condo Delivery Analysis For
TRADITIONAL & SHORT-TERM/AIRBNB CONDOS Coconut Grove To Fort Lauderdale - East of I-95
58,953 60,000
50,000
TRADITIONAL
45,000
VS. SHORT-TERM/AIRBNB
40,000
TRADITIONAL CONDOS - 3,011
35,000
SHORT TERM RENTALS - 4,419
30,000 25,000
19,465
20,000 15,000 10,000
3,011
5,000 0
# OF BUILDINGS
PREVIOUS CYCLE
LAST CYCLE
CURRENT CYCLE
2001 - 2010
2012 - 2019
2020 - 2022
275
123
18
SOURCE: MLS
TRADITIONAL CONDO UNITS RELEASED
55,000
Demand
DOMESTIC POPULATION GROWTH States with the Largest Daily Population Growth
THE BIG THREE!
THE BIG THREE!
2012
2017
RANK
STATES
P/DAY
RANK
1
TEXAS
1,202
2
CALIFORNIA
3
FLORIDA
SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS BUREAU & USAPOPULATION.ORG *PROJECTED
THE BIG TWO! *2022
STATES
P/DAY
RANK
STATES
P/DAY
1
TEXAS
1,095
1
TEXAS
1,231
850
2
FLORIDA
900
2
FLORIDA
1,087
670
3
CALIFORNIA
658
3
IDAHO
330
13
CALIFORNIA
122
International Market ANDRÉS LÓPEZ OBRADOR President of Mexico
NICOLÁS MADURO President of Venezuela GUSTAVO PETRO Colombia - Projected Winner (Presidential Election May 2022)
GUILLERMO LASSO President of Ecuador
PEDRO CASTILLO President of Peru LUIS ARCE President of Bolivia LUIZ INACIO LULA DA SILVA Brazil - Projected Winner (Presidential Election Oct. 2022)
ALBERTO FERNÁNDEZ President of Argentina GABRIEL BORIC President of Chile
Joseph DaGrosa CHAIRMAN OF DAGROSA CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC
WHY COSTA RICA
Joseph DaGrosa CHAIRMAN OF DAGROSA CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC
Migration Patterns Costa Rica is the Fastest Growing Country for Americans in The World.
COSTA RICA U.S. MIGRATION 2016 - 2021 Number of Americans Living in Costa Rica
200,000
*159,720 EST. POPULATION BY 2026
317,000
150,000
121,000
100,00
75,740
91,073
160%
92,273
INCREASE 2016 - 2021
60,774 50,000
0
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
*2022
AVG 32% INCREASE PER YEAR * PROJECTED
SOURCE: US DEPARTMENT OF STATE
46,218
MIGRATION MAP Feeder Markets Moving to Costa Rica WA
ME MT
ND
VT
MN
NH
OR
CT
MI
WY
PA
IA NE IL CO
CA
NJ MD
OH
NV UT
IN
WV VA
KS
KY
MO
NC TN OK AZ
MA
NY
WI
SD
ID
AR
SC
NM MS
TX
AL
GA
LA FL
COSTA RICA
DE
RI
Costa Rica Continually Making it Easier for Americans to Invest and Live Here
2021 Costa Rica Incentives for Americans and Foreign Nationals » The minimum capital investment for Costa Rica residency was lowered from $200,000 to $150,000. » Tax free importation of vehicles for personal or family use lifted and one-time tax exemption for importing household goods. » Money earned abroad (e.g. a U.S. pension) will not be taxed by Costa Rica! » Digital Nomad Visa recently created. (New immigration category)
Joseph DaGrosa CHAIRMAN OF DAGROSA CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC
The Development
CARIBBEAN SEA
SAN JOSE
The Southern Zone
OJOCHAL PLAYA BALLENA
ROUTE 1 : PALMAR SUR AIRPORT ROUTE 2 : QUEPOS AIRPORT
CHONTALES
QUEPOS
PACIFIC OCEAN
PALMAR SUR
PHASE ONE
DOMINICAL
SOLD OUT UVITA
PHASE TWO
35% SOLD
OJOCHAL PLAYA BALLENA
CHONTALES
PALMAR SUR
RANCHO QUEMADO
PACIFIC OCEAN
Cost Of Ownership
COSTA RICA
0.25% Annual Property Tax
COSTA RICA (0.25%)
MIAMI (1.8%)
$500,000 HOME
$500,000 HOME
$1,250 / YEAR
$9,000 / YEAR
$750,000 HOME
$750,000 HOME
$1,875 / YEAR
$13,500 / YEAR
$1,000,000 HOME
$1,000,000 HOME
$2,500 / YEAR
$18,000 / YEAR
RIVERSIDE
Cash Buyer Rented 65% of the Year 3 BEDROOMS / 2.5 BATHS
Costa Rica ROI Estimations
SQ. Ft. List Price Estimated Monthly Rental Estimated Yearly Rental Estimated Yearly Airbnb Fees
2,500 $500,000 $6,500 $50,700 -($8,600)
(Cleaning Fee, Service Fee and Occupancy & Taxes)
Estimated Property Management Fee
-($1,800)
Estimated Yearly Rental (-) Airbnb / Management Fees
$40,300
Real Estate Taxes (.25%)
-($1,250)
Yearly HOA
-($1,500)
N.O.I. ESTIMATED NET ANNUAL INCOME
ESTIMATED % ROI
$37,550
$37,550 7% SOURCE: AIRBNB
Takeaways 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
SUPPLY SHOCK
POPULARITY OF SINGLE FAMILY HOMES AND LARGE CONDOS (VERTICAL HOUSES)
CONTINUED POPULATION GROWTH/DEMAND
GREAT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN A SAFE TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT: COSTA RICA.
PARADIGM SHIFT. THE POWER OF NOW!
2022
EXCLUSIVE PREVIEW