presents
TM
Q3 UPDATE
2 0 2 0
Q1 - Q2 Unprecedented
Historic Economic Recovery Comparison Perspective by Andres Oppenheimer SoFlo Ahead Webinar | May 12, 2020
1929-1938
2008-2009
2020
The Great Depression
The Great Recession
Current Recession
The Great Depression started in the United States after a major fall in stock prices that began around September 4, 1929, and became worldwide news with the stock market crash of October 29, 1929.
Causes of the Great Recession include a combination of vulnerabilities that developed in the financial system.
Real economic shock of the disruption of global and domestic supply chains and direct damage to businesses across all industries due to the Covid-19 epidemic.
(10-year recovery)
*Projected
(2-year recovery)
(6-month recovery*)
2 0 2 0
Q3 - Q4 Optimism
MLS
S I N G L E FA M I LY H O M E S
What is the Real Estate Rule of Thumb?
10% or more of inventory = Buyers market 10% or less of inventory
= Seller’s market
Miami-Dade, Broward & Palm Beach County Single Family Homes Residential Snapshot PALM BEACH
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY Total Single Family Homes: 4,516 / 678,860 available for sale or rent in MLS
BROWARD COUNTY Total Single Family Homes: 3,808/ 495,877 available for sale or rent in MLS
Total Single Family Homes: 3,692 / 609,446 available for sale or rent in MLS
99.33%
99.23%
99.27%
(unavailable)
0.67% (available)
(unavailable)
0.77% (available)
(unavailable)
0.73% (available)
LOW INVENTORY
LOW INVENTORY
LOW INVENTORY
of Single Family Homes are available for sale or rent in Miami-Dade County
of Single Family Homes are available for sale or rent in Broward County
of Single Family Homes are available for sale or rent in Palm Beach County
ONLY 0.67% Seller’s market
ONLY 0.77% Seller’s market
ONLY 0.73% Seller’s market
Miami-Dade, Broward & Palm Beach County Total Active Analysis for Single Family Homes TOTAL ACTIVE LISTINGS
16,248 15,009
16,000 15,000
13,497
14,000 13,000 T O TA L A C T I V E L I S T I N G S
12,000
10,623
11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0
Jan 2019
Sept 2019
Jan 2020
Sept 2020
Single Family Homes Selling Faster than the can be listed in 2020
Avg. # New Single Family Home Listings p/month
Avg. Sales p/month
Avg. Fewer homes to sell
3,554
3,871
-317
South Florida’s V Shape Recovery for Single Family Homes Sold in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach County January - September in 2019 & 2020
2019 vs. 2020 Quarterly Sales Difference (%) 20%
2019 VS 2020 SALES DIFFERENCE (%)
8.78%
0%
2020
(6-month recovery*)
-20%
Andres Oppenheimer
-40%
*Projected
4.23%
-31.79% Q1
Q2
Q3 More sales in Aug & Sept 2020 than in 2019
MLS
CONDOS
Condos find a Pulse. Single Family Homes vs. Condos Transactions Comparison MIAMI-DADE | BROWARD | PALM BEACH
2020-Q1
2020-Q2
2020-Q3
Single Family Homes Single Family Homes
50%
transactions
Condominiums
50%
85%
Single Family Homes
65%
transactions
transactions
transactions
Condominiums
15% transactions
A L L
T R A N S A C T I O N S
Condominiums
35% transactions
Miami-Dade, Broward & Palm Beach County Total Active Analysis for Condos TOTAL ACTIVE LISTINGS
30,000 29,000
28,774
T O TA L A C T I V E L I S T I N G S
28,000
26,998
27,000
25,542
26,000 25,000
24,188
24,000 23,000 22,000 21,000 20,000
Jan 2019
Sept 2019
Jan 2020
Sept 2020
Condos Now Selling Faster than the can be listed in 2020
Avg. #Condos Listings p/month
Avg. Sales p/month
Avg. Fewer condos to sell
2,733
2,798
-65
South Florida’s V Shape Recovery for Condos Sold in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach County January - September in 2019 & 2020
2019 vs. 2020 Quarterly Sales Difference (%)
2019 VS 2020 SALES DIFFERENCE (%)
20%
3.01% 0%
-9.67%
2020
-20%
(6-month recovery*)
-40%
Andres Oppenheimer -60%
-47.46% Q1
Q2
Q3
Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach County Total Velocity Analysis for Single Family Homes and Condos
62,829 86.01%
Jan - Sept 2019
54,037
Jan - Sept 2020 0
Total Sales for Aug & Sept
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Aug
Sept
2019 Sales
7,189
6,562
2020 Sales
7,366
6,786
177
224
2.46%
3.41%
Sales Difference % Difference
50,000
60,000
70,000
Sales made in 2020 compared to 2019
Con struc tion
N E W
CURRENT CYCLE
New Construction Condo Summary Coconut Grove to Fort Lauderdale, Traditional New Condos East of I-95
REMAINING DEVELOPER INVENTORY SOLD DEVELOPER UNITS
91.80% Sold as of Sept 2020
1,591
17,831
Remaining Developer Inventory
Total Sold Units
19,404 Total Units
CURRENT CYCLE
Brickell Construction Condo Summary
REMAINING DEVELOPER INVENTORY SOLD DEVELOPER UNITS
96.48% Sold as of Sept 2020
199
5,458
Remaining Developer Inventory
Total Sold Units
5,657 Total Units
Brickell New Construction Update for Condos Built Since 2012 TOTAL UNSOLD DEVELOPER LISTINGS
T O TA L U N S O L D D E V E L O P E R L I S T I N G S
500
483 Brickell City Centre 125
400
Brickell Flatiron 29
329 300
Una Residences 45
250 199
200
100
0
Jan 2019
Sept 2019
Jan 2020
Sept 2020
Brickell MLS Resale Snapshot for New Condos Built Since 2012 TOTAL ACTIVE LISTINGS
903
900
16.35%
867
15.70%
791
14.32%
T O TA L A C T I V E L I S T I N G S
800
677
700
12.26%
600
500
Jan 2019
Sept 2019
Jan 2020
Sept 2020
MLS Resale Profile for 2020
Brickell
7%
Edgewater Downtown Miami The Beaches
(Miami Beach - Sunny Isles)
Aventura / North Miami Coconut Grove / Key Biscayne Fort Lauderdale
Source: MLS (New Condos Built Since 2012 East of I-95)
4% 12%
36% BRICKELL
17% 18%
6%
FA C T
1 out of every 3 Sales are in Brickell
CURRENT CYCLE
Brickell Groundbreakings for Traditional Condos Traditional Condos are defined as Condos with no short-term rentals TOTAL GROUNDBREAKINGS
5
4
3
Una Residences
2
1
1
0
0
2018
2019
0
0
0
0
0
2021*
2022*
2023*
2024*
2025*
0
* Projected
2020
Macro Groundbreakings for Traditional Condos Traditional Condos are defined as Condos with no short-term rentals Total macro* new construction groundbreakings by year for traditional condos built since 2012 and east of I-95 *(Brickell, Biscayne Corridor, Downtown Miami, South Beach, Miami Beach, Surfside, Bal Harbour, Bay Harbor Islands, Sunny Isles Beach, Hallandale Beach, Hollywood Beach, Aventura, North Miami Beach, Coconut Grove, Key Biscayne and Fort Lauderdale). Condo developments with 20 units or less not included.
TOTAL GROUNDBREAKINGS
Aston Martin Missoni Baia
5
4
4
Four Seasons Fort Lauderdale 2000 Ocean
Una Residences
Mr. C Residences
3
57 Ocean
2
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
2021*
2022*
2023*
2024*
2025*
0
2018
* Projected
2019
2020
Pop ula tion
D E M A N D
Net Migration - Data from Tax Returns (Tax Payers & Dependents)
- January 2020
NEW YORK
CONNECTICUT
1. Florida
1. Florida
2. New Jersey
2. Texas
3. North Carolina
3. North Carolina
NEW JERSEY
ILLINOIS
1. Florida
1. Florida
2. North Carolina
2. Texas
3. Georgia
3. Indiana
MASSACHUSETTS 1. Florida 2. Georgia 3. Texas
2010 vs. 2020 Global & Domestic Buyer Profile 2010
50%
2020
49%
49%
45%
FA C T
40% 35%
28% 30%
30% 25%
23%
21%
20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
Latin America
Other
(Canada, Europe & Asia)
U.S.
U.S. more than doubles in 10 years.
Miami Report | Takeaways
1.
2.
Declining developer and MLS inventory
Projected “V” Shaped Recovery underway per Andres Oppenheimer
3.
4.
Continued population growth/demand
Unprecedented lack of future developer supply
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