UCL - Space syntax

How does design add value?

Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference 26th April 2012 Tim Stonor Managing Director, Space Syntax Limited Visiting Professor, The Bartlett, UCL t.stonor@spacesyntax.com @Tim_Stonor

Trafalgar Square The new Central Staircase

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Nottingham, England Old Market Square

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Millennium Bridge, London

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Spatial masterplanning Rapid design development & testing

Spatial accessibility Low

High

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Spatial masterplanning Rapid design development & testing

Spatial accessibility Low

High

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Spatial masterplanning Rapid design development & testing

Spatial accessibility Low

High

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

An evidence-based approach to urban planning y = .784x + 2.147, R-squared: .589

9 8

7

Vehicle movement

Pedestrian movement

8

6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0

1

2

3

Spatial accessibility

4

5

6

7

y = 1.235x + 1.048, R-squared: .702

7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Spatial accessibility

Research shows that 60-80% of movement flows are due to the structure of the network, measured by spatial accessibility.

More accessible places get more movement.

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

80% retail located on 20% most spatially accessible streets

Courtesy of The TLRN Central London Pedestrian Study by Atkins Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Unplanned settlements Spatial layout distributes land use

Spatial accessibility Low

Land use distribution

High

Spatial accessibility

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Spatial layout influences crime & safety Area 5

Area 6

Area 2

Perth, Australia Property crime analysis Area 3 Spatial accessibility Low

High

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

What is the city for?

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Movement is the lifeblood of the city.

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Congestion The goal of advanced civilisations?

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

What is the city for? The city is for transaction

Social Economic Cultural Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Designing for movement Elephant and Castle

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Designing for movement Elephant and Castle

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Designing for movement Elephant and Castle

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Designing for movement Elephant and Castle

1916 Coherent urban layout “The Piccadilly of the south”

2005 Fragmented urban layout - isolated, divided communities - disposable income exodus.

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax © 2012

Elephant & Castle Pedestrian Forecast Model

Spatial layout attraction

Land use attraction

Transport attraction

The degree to which the design of the development creates an accessible, intelligible spatial layout.

The strength of attraction of movement-sensitive land uses, especially retail.

The degree to which public and private transport systems integrate with the development.

Pedestrian forecast Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Pedestrian Forecast Model Spatial layout attraction R square 35%

Weekend

R square 40%

Borough Station

Blackfriars Road

Lambeth North Station

Weekday

Southbank University

Elephant and Castle

1504_Ax_Ex_R2000

Kennington Road

Spatial layout attraction is calculated by analysing the network of pedestrian routes and measuring the degree to which individual route segments are likely to be used by people moving through the area.

Spatial accessibility Low

High

The degree to which the spatial layout attraction influences actual pedestrian movement is indicated by the R square value where the higher R square means a higher degree of fit (0% is no fit, 100% is perfect fit).

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Lambeth North Station

Blackfriars Road

Retail attraction Weekday

R square 38%

Weekend

R square 51%

Southbank University

Elephant and Castle

Shopping Centre Kennington Road

East Street Market

Retail attraction is calculated by measuring the distance of any route segment from the two principal areas of retail focus – Elephant and Castle Shopping Centre and the East Street Market.

1504_Ax_Ex_MCA_Centres

Metric distance over 800m 700 – 800 m 600 – 700 m 500 – 600 m 400 – 500 m 300 – 400 m 200 – 300 m 100 – 200 m 0- 100 m Origins

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax © 2012

Transport attraction

Lambeth North Station

Weekday

R square 26%

Weekend

R square 28%

Blackfriars Road

Borough Station

Southbank University

Elephant and Castle New Kent Road

Kennington Road

Transport attraction is calculated according to the distance of any pedestrian segment from either a bus stop, tube or rail station.

1504_Ax_Ex_MCA_Bus

Kennington Station

Metric distance over 800m 700 – 800 m 600 – 700 m 500 – 600 m 400 – 500 m 300 – 400 m 200 – 300 m 100 – 200 m 0- 100 m Bus stop Underground station

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax © 2012

Pedestrian Forecast Model

Spatial layout attraction Weekday R square = 49% Weekend R square = 54%

Retail attraction Weekday R square = 38% Weekend R square = 51%

Transport attraction Weekday R square = 26% Weekend R square = 28%

Pedestrian forecast Weekend R square=73%

Forecast movement

Actual movement

Actual movement

Weekday R square = 60%

Forecast movement

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Design proposal Forecast >600 300 – 600 150 – 300 100 – 150 60 – 100 0 – 60

1504_PedMov_Forecast_PropMasterplan

People Per Hour

0

50m

100m

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax © 2012

Pedestrian movement forecast 9am

Proposed retail land use

Pedestrian movement People per hour

Input factors 1. Spatial accessibility 2. Land use type & density 3. Sun path 4. Time

400+ 200-400 100-200 50-100 25-50 0-25

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Pedestrian movement forecast 12pm

Proposed retail land use

Pedestrian movement People per hour

Input factors 1. Spatial accessibility 2. Land use type & density 3. Sun path 4. Time

400+ 200-400 100-200 50-100 25-50 0-25

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Pedestrian movement forecast 2pm

Proposed retail land use

Pedestrian movement People per hour

Input factors 1. Spatial accessibility 2. Land use type & density 3. Sun path 4. Time

400+ 200-400 100-200 50-100 25-50 0-25

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Pedestrian movement forecast 4pm

Proposed retail land use

Pedestrian movement People per hour

Input factors 1. Spatial accessibility 2. Land use type & density 3. Sun path 4. Time

400+ 200-400 100-200 50-100 25-50 0-25

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Pedestrian movement forecast 6pm

Proposed retail land use

Pedestrian movement People per hour

Input factors 1. Spatial accessibility 2. Land use type & density 3. Sun path 4. Time

400+ 200-400 100-200 50-100 25-50 0-25

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Urban value

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Design factors influencing property security

UrbanBuzz

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Value of property security

UrbanBuzz

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Value of property security

UrbanBuzz

0 Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Average rateable value 2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

Rateable value Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Rateable value Socio-spatial associations 100% 90% 80%

Correlations

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20%

Socio economic

10%

Spatial layout

0%

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Rateable value Forecast model

Rateable value = IMD score + Global accessibility + Local accessibility Correlation 88%

Rateable Value = 731.267 + -3901.326*Income score + 6.4129e-8*Choice RN + 9.718*Choice R400

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Case studies

Earls Court

Elephant & Castle

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Earls Court Scenarios

Dislocated layout

Accessibility score 75

Accessibility score 35

Integration R400

Proposed layout

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Elephant & Castle master plan Scenarios

Dislocated layout

Accessibility score: 93

Accessibility score: 57

Integration R400

Proposed layout

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Average rateable value forecast Earls Court

Proposed layout

Elephant and Castle

Dislocated Alternative

Earls Court Proposed Earls Court Dislocated Elephant & Castle Proposed Elephant & Castle Dislocated

Proposed layout

Income Score Medium Medium Low Low

Dislocated Alternative

Local Global accessibility accessibility High Medium Low Medium High High Low High

average rental value (m2) £897.52 £508.03 £921.06 £571.61

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax © 2012

Average rateable value forecast 2500

2000

1500

1000

500

Proposed layout plan rateable value Dislocated layout rateable value

0

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Financial model

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Financial model Revenue assumptions

Office rental value

Residential rental value

Retail rental value average rental value (m2)

Savills 2010

Jones Lang LaSalle 2010

Earls Court Proposed

£897.52

Earls Court Dislocated

£508.03

Elephant & Castle Proposed

£921.06

Elephant & Castle Dislocated

£571.61

Space Syntax 2012

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax © 2012

Financial model Cost assumptions Cost assumptions come from RICS (capital costs) Adjusted for London @ 1.14 Build Function Description £/ Sq Meter

Inter‐ Quartile Mean Median Range Range £/sq.M £/sq.M £/sq.M £/sq.M

Offices‐general Offices‐Air conditioned General 1‐2 stories 3‐5 stories 6+ stories Offices‐Non Air conditioned General 1‐2 stories 3‐5 stories 6+ stories Offices‐With shops, banks, flats, etc 1‐2 stories 3‐5 stories 6+ stories

£ 1,374 £ 1,512 £ 1,360 £ 1,536 £ 1,915 £ 1,256 £ 1,151 £ 1,355 £ 1,764 £ 1,269 £ 1,024 £ 1,229 £ 1,572

1205 1326 1193 1347 1680 1102 1010 1189 1547 1113 898 1078 1379

1148 1218 1164 1234 1391 1028 974 1116 1622 972 849 968 1444

520‐3827 520‐3827 520‐2227 825‐3827 1086‐2820 569‐2149 569‐1711 586‐2149 1199‐1746 726‐2142 726‐1196 831‐1547 920‐2142

Shops ‐ General 1‐2 stories 3‐5 stories

£ 902 £ 914 £ 782

791 802 686

670 390‐1953 670 390‐1953 667 566‐845

524‐891 514‐995

Mixed Commercial Developments

£ 1,164

1021

1032 495‐1493

613‐1437

Flats ‐ General 1‐2 stories 3‐5 stories 6+ stories

£ 1,094 £ 1,056 £ 1,076 £ 1,509

960 926 944 1324

919 889 919 1208

796‐1070 795‐1033 790‐1066 986‐1487

381‐2930 549‐1722 381‐1946 725‐2930

943‐1366 1072‐1445 976‐1318 1143‐1468 1334‐1917 844‐1248 802‐1156 947‐1296 866‐1363 796‐973 906‐1193 1110‐1577

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax © 2012

Financial model Cash flow summary Jan-2012

Jan-2013

Jan-2014

Jan-2051

Jan-2052

0

1

2

39

40

Summary Income: Residential Retail Commercial Base Rent Less Allowance for Vacancy 10% Total Rental Income

13,622,949 14,031,637 209,438,086 215,721,228 3,178,118 3,273,461 48,860,116 50,325,920 637,492 656,617 9,800,749 10,094,771 £ 17,438,558 £ 17,961,715 £ 268,098,951 £ 276,141,920 £ 1,743,856 £ 1,796,171 £ 26,809,895 £ 27,614,192 £ 15,694,702 £ 16,165,543 £ 241,289,056 £ 248,527,728

Less Operating Expenses Total operating Expense

£ 1,395,410 £ 1,395,410 £

Net Operating Less Debt Service Less Capital Expenditures

£

-

7,186,362 £

7,186,362

£ 14,299,292 £ 14,770,133 £ 234,102,694 £ 241,341,366 38,317,560

38,317,560

38,317,560

38,317,560

145,085,917

Net Income before Taxes Corporate Tax Rate 25%

-£ 145,085,917 -£ 24,018,268 -£ 23,547,427 £ 195,785,134 £ 203,023,806 £ £ £ £ 48,946,284 £ 50,755,951

Net After Taxes

-£ 145,085,917 -£ 24,018,268 -£ 23,547,427 £ 146,838,851 £ 152,267,854

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax © 2012

Urban value Uplift Over 40 Years A

Earls Court

B

C

Dislocated Layout

Proposed layout with retail uplift

Proposed layout with retail, residential and office uplift

Difference between A and C

IRR

15 %

16 %

18 %

+ 20 %

NPV

£665 Million

£741 Million

£1.0 Billion

+ £335 Million

Elephant & Castle

A

B

C

Dislocated Layout

Proposed layout with retail uplift

Proposed layout with retail, residential and office uplift

Difference between A and C

IRR

11%

12.5%

14%

+ 27%

NPV

£47 Million

£ 85 Million

£ 145 Million

+ £98 Million

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax © 2012

Dissemination

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Overview

Online Training Platform Overview Introduction Contents Representations of space Analysis of spatial relations Interpretive models Theories

Methods

Technologies

Reference

Analysis of spatial relations <<4/4> Scale - Radius In order to analyse the different scales of spatial properties (A, B) (eg. those found at community scale), the concept of radius is introduced to serve as a tool for selecting sub-systems. For example, we select all spaces up to 100m from a certain space.

The radius also can be defined as topological or geometric distance.

As a result, we have a package of measures assessing spatial configuration. At least, each of the six measures (integration and choice with three definitions of distance) can be applied with the three definitions of radius, giving a total of 18 measures, which can be applied at any radius, so yielding a potentially very large set of possible syntactic measures.

Draft

A Global choice pattern of Jeddah

Standard measures However, the standard measures, widely used in space syntax, are angular integration and choice at various metric radii, because these standard measures lead to more e powerful analyses, which have been supported and verified by a large number of studies and practices.

In particular, academic research (Hillier & Iida, 2005) has demonstrated that least angular analysis, rather than fewest turns and/or metric shortest routes analysis, best corresponds to movement patterns observed in real cities. This can be most likely explained by the fact that people use an angular geometric model of their environment to calculate distances. .

B Local choice pattern of Jeddah

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Social value Economic value Environmental value

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Social value Economic value Environmental value

Urban value

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Source: UN-Habitat, Goldmann Sachs

9 billion

7 billion 6.5 billion

4 billion 3 billion

3 billion

1.5 billion 1 billion

2010

2050

World Population

2010

2050

Urban Population

2010

2050

Informal Urban Population

2010

2050

Middle Class

An institutional challenge Which will it be?

Main street, mixing global & local movement

Fast highway separating global & local movement

Enhanced urban value

Suppressed urban value

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012

Tim Stonor Managing Director, Space Syntax Limited Visiting Professor, The Bartlett, UCL t.stonor@spacesyntax.com @Tim_Stonor

Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012