2018 baseball preview section March 25, 2018 by Jean Buchanan

SUNDAY • 03.25.2018 • SECTION S

OK, NOW PROVE IT Up and down the lineup, and in the dugout, too, Cardinals are carrying a load of expectations

MARCELL OZUNA

Mike Matheny must lead Cards back to playoffs. S4

Ozuna arrives as the answer to an old problem in the middle of the lineup. S2

TOMMY PHAM

DEXTER FOWLER

Alex Reyes wants to show he’s still among elite prospects. S6

Cards take new direction with coaches. S10 Capsule looks at every MLB team. S32-33

PHOTOS BY CHRIS LEE • clee@post-dispatch.com • ILLUSTRATION BY ETHAN ERICKSON

CARDINALS

1 M

S2 • ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH

BASEBALL PREVIEW

M 1 • Sunday • 03.25.2018

THUMP TO END THE SLUMP

Ozuna fills the longtime power void in middle of Cardinals order

CHRIS LEE • clee@post-dispatch.com

Marcell Ozuna hit .312 for the Marlins last season, with 37 home runs and 124 RBIs. He’s projected to bat fourth on a Cardinals team that has slumped in run production in recent years. BY DERRICK GOOLD St. Louis Post-Dispatch

JUPITER, FLA. • The trade the Cardinals made to radically alter their fortunes and swing them back into October built steadily, in coordinated increments, and culminated on such a bustling day that John Mozeliak couldn’t say whether he had time to send an emoji. He’s been known to text a fist bump, a smile, or maybe even fireworks to signal a deal is done. The president of baseball operations located a text he sent Chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. on the eve of the lineup-boosting move that included a “fingers crossed” emoji about a deal that would send Stephen Piscotty to Oakland and open a spot in the outfield. Only four members of the Cardinals’ traveling party remained in the Disney World hotel room, but many others were aware, flying home and awaiting word that a physical had been passed. Then, officially, formally — finally — an All-Star outfielder was headed their way from the Marlins. When it happened, forgoing a text, Mozeliak called the owner. A notification chain started. “The Paul Revere model,” he says. A cleanup hitter is coming. A cleanup hitter is coming. A cleanup hitter is coming. After several years of searching through a cast of candidates, the Cardinals found this past December the middle-order hitter they needed and could not create. In exchange for four prospects, they acquired Marcell Ozuna, a potential tentpole hitter dynamic enough to raise the lineup around him. As offense has reignited around the game, the absence in the Cardinals’ order became as conspicuous as their absence from the postseason. This past season the inability to develop, sign, or keep an ascendant hitter caught up with them. A thin offense left other facets of the roster exposed and continued the Cardinals’ creep backward in the standings, all the way to third place. They needed an enforcer. All contenders have at least one. Welcome to Oz. “A whole lot of people in the league are starting to put it together and think, dang, if a couple of these guys do what they can do this becomes a really good lineup, a good deep lineup, with that one addition,” manager Mike Matheny said. “That one piece, with Marcell, can be very valuable and give us what we’ve been looking for.” Said Mozeliak: “We just haven’t had that one guy in the order who people fear.”

‘YOU NEED THAT PRESENCE IN THE LINEUP’ As the Cardinals open their 127th season in the National League on Thursday against the New York Mets at Citi Field, they are trying to avoid a rarity in this era. The last time the Cardinals missed the postseason three consecutive years the league had only one wild card, they were seven years away from a new ballpark, “Mambo No. 5” was No. 1 internationally, and Rick Ankiel was a pitcher. It was 1999. Ankiel had just turned 20. These current Cardinals have been outpaced and outspent by the archrival Cubs, who have built back-to-back division

CHRIS LEE • clee@post-dispatch.com

Dexter Fowler (right) figures to score a lot more runs with Marcell Ozuna (left) hitting in the middle of the lineup.

titles around two monsters in the middle of their order, former MVP Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo. To narrow the gap, the Cardinals supplemented their rotation with Miles Mikolas, an import from Japan’s top league, and retooled their bullpen around additions Dominic Leone and Luke Gregerson, either of whom could get a crack at closing. Youth, including hotshot Alex Reyes, is on the horizon. With a billion-dollar TV deal starting this season, the Cardinals entered this past winter with as many resources as any team in baseball, and they chased a transformative hitter. Even in a powermad game, that kind of talent is rare and increasingly essential. Starters have had their impact condensed, and even an ace appears only once every five days. Relievers have heightened value but still need a lead to hold. A marquee hitter is a lineup’s core, radiating daily, whether he gets a hit or not. “He’s doing damage every day,” said Jeff Luhnow, general manager of the World Series champion Houston Astros. “It is kind of like a quarterback in football. You need that presence in the lineup for sure.” The Cardinals haven’t had that consistently for years. From 2012 to 2014, Matheny’s first three years as manager, Matt Holliday took 83 percent of the at-bats at the No. 3 spot. Allen Craig, Carlos Beltran and Matt Adams took more than 85 percent of the at-bats at cleanup, with half going to Craig. Since 2014, 11 Cardinals have had at least 100 at-bats in a season at either No. 3 or cleanup. Last year, three hitters, including rookie Paul DeJong, had at least 100 at-bats at No. 3. Matheny acknowledges how “people get frustrated that we do so much jostling around, but we have to try something to get this right.” The results reveal why. The last time the Cardinals had above average OPS or slugging from the Nos. 3 and 4 spot in the lineup was 2013, their

last pennant season. In the past three years, those spots in the order have averaged an .811 OPS and 28.3 home runs in the majors. The Cardinals have received a .746 OPS and 22.5 home runs from those spots. The lag became acute this past season as offense ruled. In 2017, eight teams scored more than 800 runs. That’s more than the previous five years combined, and all eight made the playoffs. The top nine teams in OPS made the playoffs, as did the eight best slugging teams. The Cardinals, 12th in OPS, had a run differential of plus-56. Every team with a better run differential made the playoffs. That slim margin left the Cardinals in 101 games decided by three runs or fewer, and they were 4853 in those contests. Only San Francisco and Philadelphia, two of the four lowestscoring teams, were worse. That left the bullpen with little room for error and explained how the Cardinals blew 41 leads. “We weren’t building on a lead, making it grow,” Mozeliak said. Nowhere was this more apparent than Wrigley Field. The Cardinals finished nine games behind the Cubs while going 1-8 on the North Side. It was their worst record at the Friendly Confines since 1918. The Cardinals squandered eight leads in those eight losses, though not one of the leads was greater than two runs. They scored 33 runs at Wrigley, but nine of them came in one inning. They were outscored 43-24 in the other 80. “The way the game is played now you better have a deep lineup,” Hall of Fame manager Tony La Russa said. “Teams that are really good have to beat good pitchers in close games. That’s how you get really good. You’re trying to do the biggest thing there is — which is hit the ball out of the park — against these pitchers? You don’t do that often. You better have offense that can go big and

make a run when you have to.”

CARDINALS WERE COUNTING ON TAVERAS Mozeliak saw this need coming more than three years ago. He surveyed his roster and the rank and file of prospects and saw a void. Albert Pujols’ departure after 2011, Matt Holliday’s departure after 2016, and Allen Craig’s injury and subsequent trade had left the team without that linchpin bat. The Cardinals believed they had one rising in the system, one Mozeliak called the best hitter the team had produced since Pujols, and one who the team projected to be its No. 3 hitter by 2017. Ozuna knew him, too. He called Oscar Taveras a friend. “He crushed every pitcher,” Ozuna said. What Moises Alou, six-time All-Star, recalled first about that season of the Dominican Republic’s winter league was the draft. Players at high Class A or higher are eligible, and for the first time a Dominican club could claim Taveras, who had already been to the Arizona Fall League as a teen and never hit lower than .300 for a U.S. affiliate. The kid, as Alou said this past week, “could hit,” and he went second overall to Aguilas. Gigantes took Ozuna at No. 3. They would spend most of that 2012-13 season jockeying for the rookie of the year award. From the right side, Ozuna, then 22, burst into the league with a .341 average and a league-best five homers in the first 10 games. “And then frost for like a month,” he said. From the left side, Taveras, then 20, didn’t cool, scorching the league for a .316 average, a .507 slugging percentage, and a .885 OPS. He was the can’t-miss hitter, and within 15 months of shining that winter he was in the majors. Ozuna arrived the year before. They shared a field at Busch Stadium on July See CARDINALS • Page S3

BASEBALL PREVIEW

03.25.2018 • Sunday • M 1 CARDINALS • FROM S2

4, 2014, and each had a hit. They were primed to star in 2015. In October 2014, Taveras and his 18-year-old girlfriend, Edilia Arvelo, were killed in an alcohol-related, single-car accident. He was 22. In the weeks afterward, the Cardinals had to address the sudden hole in their roster and absence from their future. They traded for Jason Heyward and began three years of cycling through outfielders while looking for a star, from Heyward to Randal Grichuk to Stephen Piscotty. None became one. All are elsewhere for 2018. “You adapt and you adjust and you understand how rare it is to have someone like (Taveras),” Mozeliak said. “When you have that player internally, he’s missed, in many ways. You’re not spending 2017 looking for a middle of the order hitter if you have one.” Ozuna had 23 homers, 85 RBIs and a .772 OPS in 2014. He did not build on that in his second season and was demoted to Class AAA in 2015. That winter he accepted an invitation to what the Wall Street Journal once called Robinson Cano’s “winter baseball boot camp.” Ozuna worked with Cano and hitting coach Luis Mercedes and “changed everything,” he says. He moved his hands. He upped his patience. “It’s a secret,” he said, grinning. “We don’t have to talk about it.” Basketball was Ozuna’s first sport as a kid, and he came to baseball later, learning to love the notion of hitting by watching Manny Ramirez, Vlad Guerrero and David Ortiz on TV. A year after his demotion, to the date, he learned he would be an AllStar in 2016, alongside Ortiz. His production swooned in the second half of that season, setting the stage for his true breakout, 2017. An All-Star again, Ozuna won the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards for NL left fielders, hit .312/.,376/.548 and had career highs in homers (37) and RBIs (124). On a team that featured NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton and his 59 home runs, Ozuna had at least one person certain he was the team’s MVP. He’s a cleanup hitter ready for his closeup, said Don Mattingly. “Changes everyone around him,” the Marlins coach and former MVP explained. “He’s showed us he can get to that level. He showed it for a half, then he showed it for a full year. He can put the numbers up. So now the question is can you do it for another year? Can you do it back-toback years? Can you do it all the time? It’s a matter of do it again. Go do it again. That’s the guy you want to build around.” Ozuna inherits the spot once held for his friend, one turned down by a teammate.

CARDINALS BELIEVE IN REVAMPED OUTFIELD When Mozeliak received the call from the Marlins front office to tell him that Stanton, empowered by a no-trade clause

that allowed him to direct and reject suitors, had declined a trade to the Cardinals, Mozeliak pivoted, within a few sentences. Could they talk about Ozuna or Christian Yelich? Entering the winter the Cardinals had identified both of those Marlins outfielders as targets for their middle-order need. The Marlins made Stanton available first. Unsure if the Marlins would move one, two, or all three outfielders, the Cardinals entered the mix for Stanton and the $295 million remaining on his contract. The deal Stanton batted away served as a framework the Marlins accepted for Ozuna. The Marlins later traded Yelich, too, to Milwaukee. The Marlins dismantled the most productive outfield in the majors. The Cardinals believe they’ve built one. Driven by Tommy Pham’s breakout season with 23 homers and 25 steals, the Cardinals’ outfield ranked eighth in the majors with an .808 OPS. Yet like the middle of the order, it has been an area where prospects roam but rarely star. Colby Rasmus arrived and left via trade. Grichuk, Piscotty, too. Taveras never had his chance. The Cardinals have not had an outfielder younger than 30 appear in the All-Star Game since 2003, when Pujols did. The Marlins were the only team in the majors to get a slugging percentage greater than .500 from their outfield, at .527. Transplant Ozuna’s production in between Dexter Fowler and Pham, and the Cardinals would have gotten a .523 slugging percentage from the trio. Even with the project regression, FanGraphs.com projects Ozuna, Pham, and Fowler — left to right — will combine for .465 slugging and an .840 OPS. That is the engine of a changed offense. “Those guys, in the middle,” Ozuna says, “intimidate.” Matheny plans to stack Fowler, Pham and three-time All-Star Matt Carpenter ahead of Ozuna in the lineup. Rather than move Ozuna up to increase his plate appearances through the season, Matheny wants him batting fourth to play the probabilities. With two guys, Fowler and Carpenter, who have “freakish ability to get on base,” the idea is Ozuna will hit often in the first inning, with a runner on. The Cardinals have waited this long for a hitter like him, what’s one more batter? “Any time you have someone who makes a pitcher pause — that is valuable,” Mozeliak said. “Or, maybe a better word for it is ‘needed.’ If your goal is to win, a guy like that is what you need. And guess what? That’s now what we have.” With a runner or two on base, Ozuna looms, an RBI waiting to happen. One if by land. Two if by air. The cleanup hitter is here. Derrick Goold @dgoold on Twitter dgoold@post-dispatch.com

ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH • S3

PROJECTED CARDINALS LINEUP 1. DEXTER FOWLER, RF Switch-hitter’s breakout power year coincided with a move to the middle of the order, but may not be related. Eight of his career-high 18 home runs came from the leadoff spot.

2. TOMMY PHAM, CF

Has advertised his goal to steal at least 30 bases and hit at least 30 homers this season. Only one Cardinal has come close: A Pham-like Ray Lankford with 26/31 in 1998.

3. MATT CARPENTER, 1B

Since 2013, when he became an everyday player, only two lefthanded batters have reached base more than Carpenter’s 1,240. Both are first basemen: Joey Votto (1,356) and Anthony Rizzo (1,263).

4. MARCELL OZUNA, LF

Cardinals, siding with comfort over a few extra plate appearances, keep Ozuna at cleanup, where no NL hitter had a higher OPS (.908) or SLG (.536) than he did in 2017.

5. PAUL DEJONG, SS

Set a club record for shortstops, rookie or otherwise, with 25 homers, but to build on powerful first impression he must pull his walk rate (0.31 per strikeout) up from the lowest reaches of the league.

6. YADIER MOLINA, C

Usurped franchise lead from Ted Simmons for hits (1,730) and doubles (335) by a catcher while underscoring durability with second-half surge (.798 OPS) for second consecutive season.

7. JEDD GYORKO, 3B

Only player in past two seasons to have hit at least 50 home runs and also have played every position in the infield. He slugged .594 with .975 OPS vs. lefties last season, inviting ideas of a platoon.

8. KOLTEN WONG, 2B

Percolating within a breakout were hints of even better: Limited to 354 ABs by injury, Wong had career bests in hard contact, August performance, and OBP. A move up would unlock his steals.

9. PITCHER

Without Adam Wainwright, Silver Slugger winner, and his .262 average, .452 slugging, and 11 RBIs, Cardinals pitchers hit a puny .116, slugged .141, and had few RBIs, 19 in 241 at-bats. Derrick Goold

BASEBALL PREVIEW

S4 â&#x20AC;˘ ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH

M 1 â&#x20AC;˘ SUNDAY â&#x20AC;˘ 03.25.2018

GET IN OR GET OUT Thereâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s much to admire about Matheny, but he must make the playoffs that particular topic. Thatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s something, I believe, has been part of the long-term culture of the Cardinals, no matter what youâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;ve accomplished, no matter what youâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;ve done. And I think itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s exemplified when you see some of our most established players, and theyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;re the ones in here working the hardest. Youâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;re always looking for that next level.â&#x20AC;? To Mathenyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s credit, heâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s always trying to grow. He talks about voraciously taking notes on his phone, even upon hearing tidbits at church or from youth baseball coaches. â&#x20AC;&#x153;Itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s amazing where you can pick stuff up if you have your ears open,â&#x20AC;? said Matheny, 47. He said he â&#x20AC;&#x153;canâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t shut downâ&#x20AC;? thinking about his team â&#x20AC;&#x201D; heâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s constantly dissecting how lessons can apply to himself, his coaches and his players. And he candidly talked about admiration for two coaches from another league â&#x20AC;&#x201D; the NBAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Gregg Popovich and Steve Kerr â&#x20AC;&#x201D; who have won titles and shown progressive and nurturing ways to coach in a modern era. In fact, Matheny was to spend a day with Popovich and the San Antonio Spurs, but it fell through. He wanted to see the culture. The Spurs, after all, could be called the St. Louis Cardinals of basketball, in regard to market size, winning history, player development and continuity. Of course, as the old NBA coach George Karl used to joke about Popovich, it helps a little when you have perhaps the greatest forward of the generation â&#x20AC;&#x201C; who also happens to be a low-maintenance superstar. The Spurs built around Tim Duncan and filled up a hand with championship rings. Every coach or manager is better, instantly, when good players join their team. Maybe that will be the case with Matheny and Ozuna? Maybe, for all the intensive study and note-taking, the way Matheny becomes better is by simply writing â&#x20AC;&#x153;Ozunaâ&#x20AC;? in the lineup. But if not, as they say in sports, â&#x20AC;&#x153;you canâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t fire the players.â&#x20AC;? Yes, maybe thereâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s a crazy caveat and Matheny wins, say, 97 games and the Cardinals still donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t make the postseason â&#x20AC;&#x201D; sure, we can revisit the playoffsor-fired thing if thatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s the case. But this is the year the Cardinals must return to relevancy, must return to being Spurs-like, must return to being a team that makes the fans proud.

BENJAMIN HOCHMAN St. Louis Post-Dispatch

JUPITER, FLA. â&#x20AC;˘ Have you ever been

so moved by words that you canâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t find the right words to describe those right words? â&#x20AC;&#x153;Mike spoke to us in the morning,â&#x20AC;? Jack Flaherty, a Cardinals prized pitching prospect, shared on the first day of full-squad camp. â&#x20AC;&#x153;Skip, heâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s just got this â&#x20AC;&#x201D; I donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t know how to describe it. â&#x20AC;Ś â&#x20AC;&#x153;He just has this dedication in his voice where he really wants it. He wants this club to do well. He wants us to represent St. Louis well. He wants us to win, and you could see it in his eyes and you can hear it in his voice. And it starts from the top â&#x20AC;&#x201D; so if heâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s feeling that way, it just trickles down to everybody else, to where everyone else wants to have that same intent to win.â&#x20AC;? The passion of the manager. Itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s indisputable. But the intent to win â&#x20AC;&#x201C; and the ability to win you over â&#x20AC;&#x201C; doesnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t guarantee wins. Mike Matheny and the Cardinals are entering a pivotal season. During spring training here, the forecast is a 100-percent chance of optimism. But if you can remove yourself from the warmth of spring, the cold reality is this: Matheny must make the playoffs with the Cardinals or he shouldnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t manage the Cardinals. In a wild-card world, three missed postseasons in a row should be St. Louisâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; version of unacceptable. â&#x20AC;&#x153;For us, Iâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;m really excited about the staff we have in place â&#x20AC;&#x201D; some fresh energy, some fresh ideas, and I canâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t wait to get it going,â&#x20AC;? said John Mozeliak, the Cardsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; president of baseball operations. And thatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s just it. Matheny had won a bunch before, but after two average seasons, Mo decided to surround Matheny with a litany of lieutenants with purpose and panache. Thereâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s pitching coach Mike Maddux and third base coach Jose Oquendo. Matheny himself talked Willie McGee into joining the staff. Bryan Eversgerd, the homegrown guru, will be Madduxâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s bullpen coach. These men should help Matheny with deficiencies weâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;ve seen, be it bullpen management or implementation of fundamentals. So, if the Cardinals slump and swoon by even June and July, why should they

CHRIS LEE â&#x20AC;˘ clee@post-dispatch.com

Cardinals infielder Jedd Gyorko (left) tags out manager Mike Matheny in a rundown drill between second and third base during spring training.

stand by their manager? Theyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;ve shown faith in him even after two Octobers at home, and now theyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;ve given him Marcell Ozuna, fresh young pitching and an â&#x20AC;&#x153;All-Starâ&#x20AC;? coaching staff, if there is that sort of thing. On paper, this is a team that can flirt with 90 wins. The organization dedicates itself to development. But at some point, you have to say itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s just not working out, as the Cards did with Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty this offseason. This should be the defining year in the development of the manager as he enters his seventh season. I mean, otherwise, what do you sell fans in March 2019? As if theyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;d say: â&#x20AC;&#x153;Sure we missed the playoffs each of the last three seasons â&#x20AC;&#x201D; and after the 2017 season, numerous playoff teams even fired their manager â&#x20AC;&#x201D; but the Cardinals are sticking with our skipper.â&#x20AC;? I had two questions I wanted Matheny to answer this spring. He obliged. The first was about approaching the 2018 season with even more hunger, after missing the postseason in 2016 and 2017. â&#x20AC;&#x153;Itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s not possible â&#x20AC;&#x201D; itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s not possible to be any more than weâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;ve done in the past,â&#x20AC;? Matheny said. â&#x20AC;&#x153;There has never been an: â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;Oh, we got this.â&#x20AC;&#x2122; Itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s everything

2018â&#x20AC;&#x201C;19 M A INS TAGE

weâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;ve got, every single day, understanding that weâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;re paid to win. We can all have goals, we can have a purpose that I believe is even higher than winning, on how we go about our business. Thatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s something that we talk about, how we buy into being about our team. Thatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s kind of the focus. But you canâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t be so focused on the finish line that you forget what the process is right in front of you that gets you there. Itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s a fine balance. â&#x20AC;&#x153;But we donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t apologize for having our goals set really high. What we want to do as far as winning, thatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s the point, thatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s what we do. So thatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s never lost sight.â&#x20AC;? The goals havenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t been reached since 2015, when the Cardinals lost in the first round of the playoffs. The goals for 2018 are set. The second question was about getting better annually, and how that relates to not only players but also a manager. â&#x20AC;&#x153;If itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s not the same for everybody out here, they need to go someplace else â&#x20AC;&#x201D; thatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s all there is to it,â&#x20AC;? Matheny said. â&#x20AC;&#x153;Itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s a growth mindset. To me, either youâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;re growing or youâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;re declining. I donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t think thereâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s a standstill. I havenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t been doing this that long â&#x20AC;&#x201D; Iâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;ve got the throttle down more than anybody on

Benjamin Hochman @hochman on Twitter bhochman@post-dispatch.com

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BASEBALL PREVIEW

S6 • ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH

M 1 • SUNDAY • 03.25.2018

AN ACE IN WAITING Reyes gains focus, perspective while missing a full season JOSE de JESUS ORTIZ St. Louis Post-Dispatch

JUPITER, FLA. • Alex Reyes initially held the tears inside when he was informed last spring that his 2017 season was over before he threw even one pitch. One moment he was the top pitching prospect in baseball, the next he was headed for season-ending Tommy John surgery. At only 22, Reyes had stalled on the road to stardom. His right elbow needed ulnar collateral ligament replacement surgery, and the hard-throwing phenom was understandably worried and dejected. Even while holding back the tears, he cried inside. Or at least that’s how he remembers feeling until he returned to the privacy of his own condo. “When I got home that day there were definitely some tears,” he said. “You know you’re away from the game you love for a complete year and there’s nothing that you can do about it but try and get back on the field for next year.” Reyes is almost back and ready to prove that he is still one of the best young pitchers in baseball. Fourteen months after the surgery, Reyes remains the Cardinals’ top prospect. That’s a testament to his previous form and the fact that most big league pitchers who have Tommy John surgery return to form. Per the Cardinals’ plans, Reyes isn’t expected to return to the majors until at least May 1. He has slowly worked himself back this spring. Few Cardinals have more to prove than Reyes as he attempts to regain the form that prompted many baseball insiders to consider him a oncea-generation talent. Judging by the early returns, Reyes may prove to be a difference-maker in the National League Central race. Few teams in baseball will have a pitcher at Class AAA who could be a frontline starter by the end of the season. “I think he has the potential to be an ace-type pitcher his first year,” veteran Adam Wainwright said. “He’s got the mental maturity. He’s got the physical tools. If he puts it together, I don’t see a guy who needs four or five years of seasoning before he’s an ace.” Wainwright knows exactly what’s ahead for Reyes. Wainwright was 29 when he had Tommy John surgery before the 2011 season. He returned in 2012 and threw 198 2/3 innings over 32 starts. A year later, he threw a leagueleading and career-high 241 2/3 innings while also leading the league with five complete games, 34 starts and a 19-9 record during his second AllStar season. Wainwright has earned two of his three All-Star berths after he had Tommy John surgery. Reliever Zach Duke, who was recovering from the same surgery last season, also proved crucial in helping Reyes go through the early rehab process at Busch Sta-

DAVID CARSON • dcarson@post-dispatch.com

Alex Reyes is expected to work out of the bullpen while he regains form before re-entering the rotation.

PROJECTED BULLPEN

CHRIS LEE • clee@post-dispatch.com

RH Dominic Leone • Although he has only one save in 160 games and 178 2/3 innings over parts of four seasons in the majors, he was a solid 3-0 with a 2.56 ERA and one save as a setup man last year in Toronto.

CHRIS LEE • clee@post-dispatch.com

RH Bud Norris • The veteran righthander had 19 saves last year for the Los Angeles Angels in his first stint as a closer after spending the majority of his eight years in the majors as a starter.

CHRIS LEE • clee@post-dispatch.com

RH Luke Gregerson • The former Astros closer has converted 48 saves in his career, including a careerhigh 31 in 2015. He also had three saves to help the United States win the 2017 World Baseball Classic.

RH Sam Tuivailala • After riding the Memphis-St. Louis shuttle the last four years, Tuivailala appears primed for an important setup role or perhaps even closing opportunities. He had 40 saves at Memphis over parts of the last three seasons, but none in the majors.

LH Tyler Lyons • The veteran was one of the Cardinals’ more reliable relievers last year while going 4-1 with a 2.83 ERA and three saves in 54 innings over 50 appearances.

LH Brett Cecil • The veteran lefthander stumbled last season in the first year of a four-year, $30.5 million contract. The Cardinals hope he can get more swings and misses this year and justify the expense.

RH Matt Bowman • The 3-6 record, 3.99 ERA and three saves don’t quite illustrate how valuable Bowman was to the Cardinals while leading the team with a careerhigh 75 appearances last season. He was third in the league in appearances.

RH John Brebbia • Riding a 95 mph fastball and solid slider, Brebbia quietly had an impressive rookie season while posting a 2.44 ERA over 50 appearances.

Other bullpen options • John Gant, Mike Mayers and Ryan Sherriff could play key roles in the Cardinals’ bullpen this season.

dium. They drove each other during the rehab. “I actually think that having surgery earlier in your career, like (Reyes has) done, it’s a good thing,” Wainwright said. “Get it out of the way. You’re not in any danger of being a free agent while you’re out there, especially with his talent. I think he has a long time with a healthy elbow to go out and prove himself. You’d rather do that on a healthy elbow than one that’s kind of dinged up and needs to be repaired. “What I saw in Alex was a guy who took his rehab very seriously and is still continuing to take his rehab very seriously and works his tail off every single day. If he’s not in the weight room he’s in the training room or the film room doing something to try to get better. That is what separates an average pitcher from a great pitcher.” Reyes didn’t waste his year away. In addition to rehab he paid attention to how veterans such as Wainwright prepared for each start and took care of themselves throughout an entire season. Reyes, whose listed weight is 245 pounds, focused on improving his physique. He’s 15 pounds lighter than he was when he finished an impressive 4-1 with a 1.57 ERA over 12 appearances (five starts) during his big league debut in 2016. Reyes also estimates that he has lost about 10 pounds of body fat since last August. “I thought I would focus on putting my body in the right position to succeed for a long time,” he said. “I think I’ve done that for now and hopefully I’ll continue to do that for the rest of my career.” Reyes has always appreciated his special talent, but he admittedly appreciates the game more after sitting out a season. He has a greater appreciation for the little things. “Even giving up a base hit you don’t go through that pain, that emotion and stuff in the dugout,” he said. “You go through it with your team in the dugout but you don’t go through it personally as in getting that experience on the field.” Reyes is hungry to truly feel an active part of the Cardinals again. On a team full of players with something to prove, Reyes is primed to prove that he can be an elite, front-line starter again. He wants to validate Wainwright’s belief in him and repay the veteran for lifting him at his weakest moment a year ago. “Now it’s about taking what (Wainwright) said and using it for the drive and putting it all in and trying to get the best out of me,” he said. “If he sees that, and he’s been in the game for a long time, I wouldn’t say that puts pressure but that puts something on me where it says I gotta exceed my abilities because if he sees that, I got to believe it and I gotta want it as much as anyone else.” Jose de Jesus Ortiz @OrtizKicks on Twitter jortiz@post-dispatch.com

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BASEBALL PREVIEW

S8 • ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH

M 1 • SUNDAY • 03.25.2018

POSITIVE TREND Questions abound on the mound, but Cards like their starters PROJECTED ROTATION

CARLOS MARTINEZ

With his first 200-inning season in the rear-view mirror, the two-time All-Star righthander hopes to solve first-inning issues and enter the Cy Young conversation.

ADAM WAINWRIGHT

The three-time All-Star enters the final year of his contract with a healthy right elbow and an edge to make up for a career-worst season in 2017. PHOTOS BY CHRIS LEE • clee@post-dispatch.com

Miles Mikolas, who steadied himself after a rough start in spring training, became a rotation key after the Cards declined to spend big.

BEN FREDERICKSON St. Louis Post-Dispatch

JUPITER, FLA. • Miles Mikolas may have been more nervous during his Cardinals debut than the fans who followed along. The mustachioed new starter admitted as much after he rebounded from two Grapefruit League starts that probably prompted some back in St. Louis to consider launching a GoFundMe effort aimed at re-signing Lance Lynn. “No pressure to impress,” Mikolas said after his second solid start since the rough introduction. “Just a want to.” No one should doubt Mikolas’ desire. It was his ability that was questioned after he surrendered 10 earned runs in his first 4 2/3 innings since returning from pitching in Japan. But if you canceled your Fox Sports Midwest subscription after those first two starts, you missed a reassuring response. Mikolas didn’t surrender a run his next two times out. The first baseball Mikolas threw as a Cardinal was specially stamped for spring training. Five lines, same number as there are pitchers in a rotation, connect to form a home plate near the curve of the seam. Florida’s unmistakable outline resides inside. When pitchers and catchers report, these blue stamps are as bright as the balls are white. But if you pick one up as camp nears closing time, the marks have started to fade. The Cardinals came south with big questions about their starting pitching. And while spring training offers no concrete conclusions, evidence unearthed in Jupiter was more comforting than not. Concerns still exist. Like the stamps, they’re just not as bold. It is fair and wise to wonder why a front office with a wealth of prospects

and profit passed on starting pitching possibilities that could have added instant security while promising prospects mature. A gap remains between the Cardinals and the rival Cubs, who are once again favorites to claim the National League Central crown. At last check, winning the division doesn’t cease to matter just because you are no longer the favorites. But when Cardinals fans take a break from wondering which veteran starters the Cardinals could have acquired in a slow-moving market that put a freeze on free-agent prices, they should feel better about the rotation as it stands, and the contributors who could come. Mikolas is not the only addition who seems to have settled in. New pitching coach Mike Maddux has been a breath of fresh air. More than once this spring, manager Mike Matheny deferred to Maddux on pitching-related matters. Good sign. Another one: His new pupils are raving about him. We must be careful when analyzing spring training numbers, good or bad, but can you imagine the uproar if Adam Wainwright got shelled this spring? Instead he allowed one earned run in 10 2/3 innings and totaled more strikeouts (10) than hits allowed (nine) before his work moved to the back fields to avoid a Mets lineup he will face in his first regular-season start. (That trip to the back fields was a Maddux idea.) Meanwhile, Michael Wacha is healthy and throwing hard, and a more-muscled Luke Weaver looks ready to carry his load. If something goes wrong, Jack Flaherty and John Gant have positioned themselves as the first men up. Not a bad duo to have stored at Class AAA. Don’t forget: Star prospect Alex Reyes is coming. Worries? They haven’t disappeared entirely. It’s Wainwright vs. Father Time in what might be the final round. Wainwright is laser focused. He’s also 36. Mikolas must keep his pitches off the thick of the plate moving forward. Some

of his control was slow to translate after he returned to the States. “Those get hammered in Japan,” Matheny said. “Those get hammered in Little League. He’s making better pitches, more consistently.” There is another worry, one that might have been overlooked. Carlos Martinez had a confusing, disappointing spring. The reason for his sudden, one-day departure from camp was never made known to anyone outside the organization, and some inside are still stumped. His first-inning issues and fielding hiccups have not been completely ironed out. One of his multiple outings on the back fields included a startling appearance against minor-league hitters. Martinez pitched erratically, got shelled thoroughly and raised questions about his readiness to perform. This isn’t senseless handwringing about Martinez’s hair color. It’s asking if the club’s best pitcher is going to take the next step forward. A starter can’t win the game in the first inning. He can lose it. Arguing about Martinez’s potential has become an annual tradition. If that’s the hot sports-talk topic as the Cardinals fly north, it means this has been a pretty good spring for the rotation overall. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak and general manager Michael Girsch have said, again and again, that they are confident in what they have. Never mind that the trade of Mike Leake and departure of Lynn removed 32 quality starts and 340 1/3 innings in 2017 from the 2018 equation. The frontoffice duo doubled down when they passed on Jake Arrieta and declined to pluck Lynn from the bargain bin. The Cardinals are moving forward with a rotation stitched together by hope. They have embraced the unknown instead of moving to stamp it out. So far, good enough. Ben Frederickson @Ben_Fred on Twitter bfrederickson@post-dispatch.com

MILES MIKOLAS

The righthanded import from Japanese pro ball is back in the majors for the first time since he made 10 starts with the Rangers in 2014.

MICHAEL WACHA

Further removed from his shoulder issues of 2016, the sixthyear righthander seeks his first 200-inning season — but he will have to fare better in his third trip through lineups.

LUKE WEAVER

A newcomer no more, the righthander bulked up for a bigger workload. He started 10 games and pitched 60 1/3 innings in the majors last season. Ben Frederickson

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S10 • ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH

BASEBALL PREVIEW

M 1 • Sunday • 03.25.2018

MEASURING MENTORS Coaches’ contributions are hard to quantify but vital to success

Hall of Famer Ozzie Smith talks with former teammate and new Cardinals outfield instructor Willie McGee early during spring training. BY DERRICK GOOLD St. Louis Post-Dispatch

JUPITER, FLA. • Two of the coaches the Cardinals

added this offseason were already in the dugout, and a third and fourth were on their way earlier this spring when Hall of Fame pitcher Jim Palmer remarked on the group’s collective résumé. Willie McGee, the newest to coaching, shrugged off the praise and joked he’d come back to hit some fly balls, chop some grounders, and watch the game. They shared a smile. “I’ll tell you what,” Palmer said, starting up the stairs. He took one step for each adjective, “Coaches are underpaid, overworked and underappreciated.” Yet, no one doubts their value. In a sport that is awash in a goulash of statistics, there are many ways to assess a player’s impact — from a pitcher’s spin rate to a hitter’s launch angle. All of the universally used metrics can be sliced, diced, minced, mixed, simmered and served to illustrate a player’s impact through stats like Wins Above Replacement. No such reliable measure exists for coaches. “You mean a coaches’ WAR?” one NL coach said. “Ask my wife,” new Cardinals pitching coach Mike Maddux laughed. “She’s mentioned what my WAR is.” The centerpiece of the Cardinals’ offseason was the acquisition of cleanup hitter Marcell Ozuna, but the next most-recognizable additions for 2018 spent the spring in a locker room adjacent to the clubhouse. They could be heard swapping stories and laughing almost every morning. They’re all coaches, all headliners: Maddux, former MVP McGee, and Jose Oquendo, who returns as thirdbase coach. Along with that trio, Bryan Eversgerd arrives as the bullpen coach and Mike Shildt starts his first full season as bench coach. With half of the coaches different from a year ago, this is the most significant overhaul of Mike Matheny’s seven seasons — and perhaps the most dramatic for the Cardinals in two decades. They won’t contribute an RBI, save a game or post a BABIP, but their presence is expected in the standings. “Why do you make coaching changes? That’s a fair question,” said John Mozeliak, the Cardinals’ president of baseball operations. “I think it’s a lot harder to quantify. There is an opportunity to have separation, and what I mean by that is having a voice that is being heard vs. just noise. Having a voice that is open-minded vs. this is what we’ve always done. Having a voice that recognizes innovation vs. past practices. … “We had to make a change.” Two themes surfaced most this spring during interviews with coaches and about coaches: collaboration and autonomy. The workouts revealed both. One of the highest-paid pitching coaches, Maddux had the run of the pitchers’ schedules, and his influence was obvious. The backfields became a preferred lab for his pitchers. It’s where Miles Mikolas found his grip on the spring, where Carlos Martinez spent much of his, and where relievers experimented. Maddux had Adam Wainwright bat against Alex Reyes, and what was once taboo became a practice as other pitchers faced peers. McGee improvised drills for his outfielders on the fly. Oquendo would hold impromptu baserunning and defense symposiums, mediating at times between baserunners and hitters. “On the coaching staff we have here there is not one baserunning guy, one hitting guy,” McGee said. “We all decide each day what we’re going to do. You know, we all decide what’s best. Not his way. Not my way. Not anybody’s way. Our way. It’s a good, good group.” McGee will work with outfielders and their positioning, as well as baserunning. Matheny referred to him as the “carte blanche” coach. The range of his role will be mental preparation to tightening fundamentals. With instincts and past success that have earned latitude, Oquendo will return to his role overseeing baserunning and infielding, along with first-base coach Oliver Marmol. John Mabry and Bill Mueller return as hitting coaches, which means being scout, mechanic and booster for batters. Shildt has many duties, like a smartphone – there to keep a schedule, make calls, keep information at his fingertips, even track the team’s fundamental health.

PHOTOS BY CHRIS LEE • clee@post-dispatch.com

Jose Oquendo, here instructing Jedd Gyorko, returns to restore order to baserunning and fielding.

Maddux will coordinate pitching. The Cardinals described spring training as a chance for Maddux and Matheny to work games together and get a rhythm for pitching decisions. Matheny has the “track record with these guys,” Maddux said, and he values being a part of preparation — and implementation. Asked if they would rock, scissors, paper for pitching moves, Maddux smiled. The manager has the call. “Put it this way,” he said. “Pretty much I always go paper, and he always goes scissors.” Former Cardinals general manager Walt Jocketty once said renowned coach David Duncan saved the team millions on pitching — the difference between the player’s salary and the production due to Duncan’s instruction. The list of repurposed pitchers is long, and Houston general manager Jeff Luhnow recited some as he considered how to assign a value to a coach. “Pitching coaches that can improve pitchers are worth their weight in gold,” said the former Cardinals exec. “But when you add all that up it’s the softer arts, the softer skills (of) creating a culture that is probably worth more than all of the more calculable decisions together.” The Cardinals use some metrics to evaluate coaching. An audit, for example, was done on the team’s baserunning in recent years, identifying improvements and “exotic outs” on the bases. That altered the team’s instruction and drills during spring. It underscored Oquendo’s value. The team also has an internal communication system that invites input from players and elsewhere to assess coaches. Hanging a stat – a WAR of sorts – on coaches is inexact. Coaching is “part science,” Mozeliak said, and “part art.” A coach with an American League team suggested that if he helped each starter with something that wins one game a season that would be eight wins. An agent suggested a future metric that would reveal how spin rates or a pitcher’s health improved from one coach to the next. Oquendo said he measures his role by the runs – the ones he can put a player in position to score and the ones a fielder is positioned to steal. Anecdotes thrive where analytics fail. At a Red Sox game this spring, former Cardinals manager Tony La Russa recalled an example from 2011. David Freese struck out six times in his first 12 at-bats of those playoffs. Hitting coach Mark McGwire suggested he plant his front foot quicker, freeing his hips to drive the ball to right field. Allen Craig overheard the pointer and did the same. Craig homered three times in the World Series. Freese had 23 hits in his next 51 at-bats. Game 6 happened. “If a coaching staff is dedicated to the big and little executions throughout the season, there are going to be games that are swung in your direction,” La Russa said. “That’s coaching.” During a staff meeting this spring, Matheny mentioned

New Cardinals pitching coach Mike Maddux, here with reliever Matt Bowman, brings a wealth of experience and a keen sense of humor to his role in St. Louis.

a trait by which all members of the staff, himself included, should be measured: optimism. “I think it’s a non-negotiable,” he explained. “That’s not all positivity. There is instruction. There are corrections. But I think guys can depend on us every single day to be consistent and bring energy and passion and that we care. The reverse — perpetual pessimism — can bring an entire club down.” The inspiration for Matheny’s statement was a phrase repeated often by Colin Powell, “Perpetual optimism is a force multiplier.” The retired general’s belief has military roots but fits any endeavor: Better tools or better training will significantly enhance the effectiveness of a group. Players are the force. Good coaches, a force multiplier. The value the Cardinals put on coaches is as obvious as the plaque beside the clubhouse door in Jupiter. It’s a bronze relief of George Kissell, the patron saint of Cardinals coaches. Each day, as he walked out for the workouts scripted through collaboration, influenced by metrics and aimed to force-multiply, Shildt would kiss his hand and tap Kissell’s plaque. “George used to say you’re good at what you work on,” Shildt said. “I believe coaches don’t win games. Coaches prepare. Players win games.” Derrick Goold @dgoold on Twitter dgoold@post-dispatch.com

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BASEBALL PREVIEW

ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH • S13

CENTRAL SCOUTING Beating up on Reds and Pirates might be key to winning division BY RICK HUMMEL St. Louis Post-Dispatch

Darvish

JUPITER, FLA. • A laughingstock no more,

the National League Central Division has established itself as the premier, most competitive division in the league. By far. For example, in the last seven league championship series, the Central Division has been represented every year, four times by the Cardinals from 2011-14 and three times by the Chicago Cubs from 2015-17. In the 23 years the Central Division has been involved in the league playoffs, 18 divisional teams have made the NLCS, compared to 15 for the NL East and 13 for the NL West. But the NL East total is even a bit misleading because the Atlanta Braves were in eight straight league championship series from 1991-99, with the final five of those coming when there were three divisions in the league. The Braves haven’t been to the league championship series in the last 19 years. The Philadelphia Phillies were in three straight from 2008-10, the Miami (Florida) Marlins one in 2003 and the New York Mets one (2015). The Central Division hasn’t always been successful in winning the NLCS in the last seven years, with the Cardinals winning two and the Cubs one. But contrast that performance to that of the Washington Nationals, who haven’t won so much as a league championship game despite winning four division titles — because they never have played that far into October. While the Cardinals are trying to find their playoff way after getting lost the last couple of years, the Cubs are trying for a first. The Cubs never have been in the postseason four times in a row, with the only other time they had three straight from 1906-08 when they were in three straight World Series, the only postseason there was until 1969. It would not be a surprise if the NL Central landed two, or even three, of the National League’s five playoff teams if the Cardinals, Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers all can get beyond 90 wins. “I’ve always felt that there’s been at least two teams or three teams that have been good in our division,” said John Mozeliak, Cardinals president of baseball operations. To have three teams with good records, that would mean that at least one team in the division would have to be bad, so the leaders can pile up wins in 18 head-to-head meetings, and that team could be the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates, who have not won a division title since 1992, dealt their two flagship players, outfielder Andrew McCutchen and righthander Gerrit Cole, and, largely, are starting anew. The Cincinnati Reds also might serve up some wins unless they can keep their pitching staff intact, which has proven a problem in recent years. Already Anthony DeSclafani and Brandon Finnegan have been hurt in spring training. Mozeliak capsulized the division in this manner: Chicago • “Very balanced club. They’re going to have a different rotation and a different bullpen than we’ve seen in the last couple of years. But still the team to catch.” St. Louis • “In order for us to be competitive with (the Cubs), what we need to go right is the rotation needs to be what we believe it’s capable of doing.” Milwaukee • “Breakout team last year. Very athletic team. The question marks will be whether their rotation holds up and will they have enough depth in their bullpen?” Cincinnati • “Anytime you’re built around somebody as talented as Joey Votto, it’s always a good starting point. The questions there will come back to whether or not they have the arms to stay with this division.” Pittsburgh • “In this division, there’s never a series where you feel like you can take a breath. You’d better show up. Even though everybody perceives them as a ‘down team,’ they are also an athletic team. They’re going to show you some younger talent that aren’t household names. And, from a pitching standpoint, they might be a little better than people might give them credit for.”

ASSOCIATED PRESS PHOTOS

Pham

THE CUBS WILL WIN THE DIVISION . . . • If Yu Darvish is not the pitcher who lasted 3 1/3 innings in the World Series — over two starts — and is the one who was among the top righthanders in the American League. • If Ian Happ gives them an on-base-percentage lift at the top of the order. Without Dexter Fowler and the .393 on-base percentage he compiled in the World Series championship year of 2016, the Cubs’ leadoff men sank to a .246 average and .320 on-base clip last year. Much of that was an ill-fated fling with Kyle Schwarber in that spot. The burly power hitter had a Jedd Gyorko type of year, matching the Cardinals third baseman’s 30 homers and 59 RBIs achieved by Gyorko in 2016. But Schwarber hit just .190 with a .312 mark as a leadoff man. • If Brandon Morrow and Steve Cishek can morph from setup men to closers. Cishek had control problems with the Cardinals as a late-inning man when he spent part of a season with them in 2015. He had one save. And Morrow, while he had a 2.06 ERA last year with the National League champion Los Angeles Dodgers, had only two saves and just 18 for his career.

THE CARDINALS WILL WIN THE DIVISION . . . • If they can win at least seven more games. “Ninety is a good place to start,” Cards president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said. But how to do that? The Cardinals would need to score more runs, but they should, with the insertion of Marcell Ozuna in the cleanup position, a presumably healthy Matt Carpenter and full seasons from Tommy Pham and Paul DeJong. But, as Mozeliak stated earlier in this piece, the rotation must be solid. Additionally, the bullpen must not give away as many games as it did last year.

Braun

THE BREWERS WILL WIN THE DIVISION . . . • If they find another starter who is not named Yovani Gallardo to pitch near the top of the rotation – at least until Jimmy Nelson returns in June after messing up his shoulder diving back into first base late last season. • If they can find a place for Ryan Braun where he doesn’t hurt them defensively. First base may not be the answer. • If Lorenzo Cain drives in more than 49 runs, a lot more than he did last year with Kansas City.

Gennett

THE REDS WILL NOT WIN THE DIVISION . . . Until they match their rotation with their bullpen, which is anchored by Rafael Iglesias, one of the top two or three closers in the league. They will score plenty of runs, especially if Scooter Gennett can repeat his “Joe Hardy” season of last year when he bashed 27 home runs, including a memorable four in one game against the Cardinals.

Pirates manager Clint Hurdle

THE PIRATES WILL NOT WIN THE DIVISION . . . Until they can afford to keep some of their standout players. Gerrit Cole was going to be gone anyway after this season, so the Pirates got what they could. The Pirates’ best window was three or four years ago when they advanced to three straight wild-card games and took the Cardinals to five games in the divisional series when the Cardinals went to the World Series in 2013. Rick Hummel @cmshhummel on Twitter rhummel@post-dispatch.com

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BASEBALL PREVIEW

03.25.2018 • Sunday • M 1

ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH • S15

HISTORY LESSON DeJong wants no repeat of a recent Cards shortstop’s experience BY RICK HUMMEL St. Louis Post-Dispatch

JUPITER, FLA. • It is a cautionary tale,

this shortstop position the Cardinals thought they had locked down last year. Aledmys Diaz hit .300 with 17 homers and 65 runs batted in as a rookie for the Cardinals and made the National League All-Star team in 2016. He wasn’t the most solid defender, but there was some hope he would improve his ability to make routine plays to the point he could hold the position until some of the Cardinals’ young shortstops in the system were deemed ready. But, less than a year after that AllStar Game in which Diaz fanned in his only at-bat, he was at Class AAA Memphis learning to be a utilityman. Not only had his defense not improved, but Diaz was showing more impatience at the plate, where he hadn’t been all that patient to begin with. He seemed to have lost confidence in himself and, in a losing parlay, the club seemed to have lost confidence in Diaz even though he was hitting .260 when sent out in late June. Two months after the end of the season, he found himself in Toronto, traded for a minor league outfielder. To be sure, Paul DeJong had a hand in this. Called up from Class AAA Memphis, where he was tearing apart the Pacific Coast League (13 homers), DeJong initially played second base for injured Kolten Wong. He returned to Memphis but only for a couple of days, and by late June he was the Cardinals’ starting shortstop. He would go on to drive in 65 runs and hit 25 homers while batting .285. DeJong is not oblivious to the Diaz precursor. It could happen to him, too, although it is unlikely he would be defrocked of his job so soon after signing a six-year extension. “But the constant in this game is that you’ve got to play well to keep your job,” said the 24-year-old DeJong. “It’s something that’s always going to be around the game, but (the Diaz case) is a little closer example, something more visual, I guess.” DeJong, who played a whopping 156 games last year, counting his time in the minors, said, “I’ve already forgotten last year. Yesterday’s home runs don’t count today. Last year it was fun to look up at the end of the year and see my totals, but pitchers are going to come back with a different plan and I’m going to have to come with my own plan.” The baseball registers are full of players who went from prospects to suspects in their sophomore seasons. “Some guys stop their preparation or just think they can skate by because of what they did the year before,” said Illinois State graduate DeJong. The antidote to potential secondseason ills is the ability to adjust to the other side’s adjustment. DeJong thought he already had shown his ability to navigate that course last year. “I didn’t think I had too many ups and downs until about August, when I hit a screeching halt after my good July,” DeJong said. DeJong went homerless from July 26-Aug. 4, drove in just three runs in that span and in one August stretch struck out in 14 straight games, whiffing four times in one game. The slump was short. He hit six home runs in the next 15 days, moving

CHRIS LEE • clee@post-dispatch.com

Second-year Cardinals shortstop Paul DeJong has been hard at work on his fielding since before the start of spring training.

his average from .278 to .305. “I had to get back to controlling the (strike) zone, laying off pitches,” said DeJong, who had 21 walks to go with 124 strikeouts. “Managing the strike zone is going to be one of the biggest things for my success.” Manager Mike Matheny said he and his staff are more interested in how young players react in bad times more than good ones. “That tells you a lot about the player and the person,” Matheny said, “and Paul answered a lot of those questions. It was impressive how he jumped in – and we threw him into some tough situations.” DeJong hit only .260 to go with 22 homers at Springfield in 2016 but hit better at two higher levels last year, averaging .299 at Memphis to go with his big-league average. “I think I’m getting better toward being able to battle and get hits in tough situations or tough counts, and that’s what is going to push me over the edge this year,” said DeJong confidently. From being slotted as the No. 8 or 9 hitter with the Cardinals when he got to the majors, DeJong was promoted to third with injuries derailing some veteran players. He belted two-run homers in his second and third games after being slotted in the No. 3 spot. DeJong hit .292 with 11 homers in 204 at-bats as a No. 3 batter. This is only one side of the ball, though. “I thought I made more errors last year on weird, finicky plays,” he said, “like trying to make a throw on a dou-

ble play when the (hitter) was clearly safe and throwing it away. Just stupid things like that. “ Hall of Fame shortstop Ozzie Smith worked with DeJong a bit at Busch Stadium during last season and spent a week helping him this spring, along with infield coach Jose Oquendo. Smith said, “In his first year, he was very consistent. He was good at making the routine play. Even when the team wasn’t doing well, he was still performing very well. The thing that’s going to determine his greatness, or how far he goes, is his consistency. How long does he play? Time determines greatness. “But, in his first year, he did a super job holding things together for them in the middle. He’s a quick learner. He absorbs stuff. Now it’s a matter of repeating it day and day out. But I also thought that about Diaz. “I don’t know the behind-thescenes of what happened. Aledmys was a pretty good player and had a pretty good year. “The second year was a challenging year for all of us, because now they know you. Now, how do we adjust? But, because of how quick he learns, I think Paul will be fine.” How long he will remain at shortstop is a question DeJong responded to by saying. “I think I can stick at shortstop for a while, but down the line, if I play this game long enough, I expect to move around. What’s going to keep me there is my bat, and I’ll just be prepared to play shortstop for as long as I can till they tell me otherwise.” Oquendo, the Cardinals’ guru of in-

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field defense and also the third-base coach, who is back on staff after a twoyear absence, worked with DeJong extensively before camp began. Oquendo said part of his concentration with DeJong on defense was to make him more proficient on the backhand, “getting himself in a good position so that once he catches the ball, he’s ready to throw the ball.” While many would settle for DeJong being an adequate defensive player considering his offensive skill set, Oquendo bumped up that estimate. “He can be a real good shortstop,” Oquendo said. “He has the desire, and once you have that desire you can get better and better and better.” DeJong will be in just his second bigleague season but said it was time for him to assert some kind of leadership. “I absolutely need to evolve,” he said. “I think I can be a definite leader in this clubhouse (and) on the field, learning from these older guys like Yadi (Molina) and Waino (Adam Wainwright) and how they handled the team and their responsibilities. Oquendo has challenged me to be more of a leader this year. ... You either step up or step down.” Oquendo said, without question, DeJong needed to become more of a leader in the infield. “Either by example or communication,” Oquendo said. “... We need more than one leader on the club. If we had three or four leaders, that’s better than one.” Rick Hummel @cmshhummel on Twitter rhummel@post-dispatch.com

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BASEBALL PREVIEW

03.25.2018 • SUNDAY • M 1

ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH • S21

CHRIS LEE • clee@post-dispatch.com

CARDINALS 2018 SCHEDULE MARCH/APRIL Sun.

Mon.

FS FS 2 Mil NYM 1:10 12:10

FS 9 FS Mil AZ 6:05 1:15

FS 16 FS Chi Cin 6:05 12:10

FS 23 Cin 1:15

Tue.

Home Wed.

Away

Thu.

Fri.

Sat.

29 FS NYM 12:10

FS NYM 12:10

FS AZ 1:15

FS AZ 6:15

FS Mil 6:40

FS1 Mil 6:40

10 FS Mil 7:15

FS 12 FS 13 FS 14 FS Cin Cin Cin Mil 12:10 5:40 5:40 12:15

FS Chi 7:05

FS 19 Chi 1:20

20 FS Cin 7:15

24 FS NYM 7:15

FS 26 FS NYM NYM 12:15 7:15

FS Cin 1:15

FS 28 FS Pit Pit 6:05 6:05

MAY Sun.

Mon.

E Chi 7:05

FS 14 SD 3:10

20 FS Phi 1:15 27

FS Min 7:10

Tue.

Wed.

FS CWS 7:15

FS 9 Min 12:15

15 FS1 Min 7:10

Thu.

FS 3 CWS 12:15

29 FS Mil 6:40

Away

Fri.

Sat.

FS 5 Chi 7:15

FS 17 FS 18 FS 19 FS Phi Phi Phi Min 1:15 7:15 6:15 12:10 25

JUNE Sun.

Mon.

Tue.

Wed.

Thu.

FS Chi 1:15

10 FS 11 FS 12 FS SD SD SD 7:40 9:10 9:10

FS 22 FS 23 FS 24 KC KC KC 12:15 7:15 7:15

FS 28 FS Mil Pit 1:10 12:35

Home

FS 26 FS Pit Pit 3:05 6:05

30 FS 31 FS Pit Mil 6:15 12:10

FS 4 Pit 1:15

10 FS Cin 12:10

FS FS1 6 FS 7 Mia Mia Mia 12:15 7:15 7:15

FS 12 FS 13 FS 14 SD SD SD 7:15 7:15 7:15

17 TBD 18 FS Phi Chi 6:05 1:15

FS Phi 6:05

20 FS Phi 12:05

FS Mil 7:10

Home

Away

Fri.

Sat.

FS 2 Pit 7:15

FS 9 FS Cin Cin 3:10 6:15

F FS 16 Chi Chi 7:15 7:15

FS Mil 7:10

FS Pit 1:15

FS Mil 3:10

29 FS 30 F Atl Atl 6:15 7:15

24 FS 25 FS 26 FS 27 FS 28 Cle Cle Cle Mil 7:15 7:15 7:15 1:10

29 FS 30 Pit 12:35

JULY Sun. 1

Mon.

FS FS 2 AZ Atl 840 1:15

8 TBD 9 SF 3:05

Tue. 3

Wed.

FS 4 FS AZ AZ 9:10 8:40

10 FS CWS 7:10

FS CWS 7:10

Thu. 5

FS 16 Cin 1:15

17 All-Star Game

FS Chi 1:20

FS 24 FS Cin Cin 6:10 6:10

FS 26 Cin 6:10

E 30 FS 31 FS Col Col Chi 7:15 7:10 7:05

Home

Away

Fri.

Sat.

AUGUST Sun.

Mon.

Tue.

FS FS 6 FS 7 SF SF SF 3:05 9:15 9:15

Wed. 1

Thu.

Home

Away

Fri.

Sat.

FS Cin 3:10

FS Pit 12:35

FS Mia 6;10

E 20 FS Chi Chi 1:20 6:05

F Chi 6:15

FS KC 1:15

FS 14 FS 15 FS 16 FS 17 FS Mil Was Was Was Was 7:15 6:15 7:15 7:15 7:10

28 FS/FS1 Chi 3:05

FS Mil 1:15

20 FS LAD 9:10

FS Chi 7:15

26 FS 27 Col 2:10

FS 8 FS 9 Mia Mia 6;10 6;10

FS 22 FS 23 LAD LAD 9:10 9:10

28 FS Pit 7:15

Sun.

Mon.

Tue.

Wed.

Thu.

Home

Away

Fri.

Sat.

FS 4 FS FS 3 FS 2 Pit Pit Col Col 6:05 6:05 12:15 7:15

FS Cin 7:15

SEPTEMBER

10 FS KC 7:15

FS KC 6:15

18 FS1 Mil 6:15

24 FS 25 FS Col Col 7:10 7:40

29 FS 30 FS 31 FS Cin Pit Pit 7:15 6:15 7:15

All game times are St. Louis times and may be subject to change. TV: ESPN (E), Fox (F), FSM (FS), Fox Sports 1 (FS1)

FS 6 FS 3 FS/E 4 FS 5 Was Was Was Cin 6:05 6:05 12:05 1:15 FS Det 12:10

10 FS 11 Fs 12 FS Pit Pit Pit 12:15 7:15 7:15

16 TBD 17 FS 18 FS 19 FS 20 Atl Atl Atl LAD 11:10 6:35 6:35 1:15 23

FS 24 FS 25 FS 26 FS 27 Mil Mil Mil SF 7:15 7:15 7:15 1:15

30 FS Chi 2:20

FS Det 6:10

FS Cin 6:15

FS Det 5:10

F FS 14 FS 15 LAD LAD LAD 12:05 7:15 6:15 21

F FS 22 SF SF 6:15 7:15

28 FS Chi 1:20

29 FS Chi TBD

BASEBALL PREVIEW

03.25.2018 • SUNDAY • M 1

ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH • S23 CHRIS LEE • P-D

RP Memphis shuttle could run often as bullpen covers for ever-more-fragile starters

BRIDGE BUILDERS

Tuivailala

BY RICK HUMMEL • St. Louis Post-Dispatch

WHAT NEEDS TO BE PROVEN There will be seven or eight relievers in the Cardinals’ bullpen at the start of the season. There are likely to be six to eight more at various times before the season is over. The club has notable depth from the right side, and with several of the relievers having options remaining there will be even more of a shuttle between St. Louis and Memphis than last season, when Sam Tuivailala was the most frequent passenger. “That’s the trend of the game,” manager Mike Matheny said. “You don’t have those 200-inning (starters) anymore.” But righthander Tuivailala will be here at the start of the season because (a) he had a good spring and (b) he is out of options. The Cardinals seem to have a collection of relievers who can pitch late, possibly in the ninth. Luke Gregerson is the closer for now but there is no guarantee that he will be the only one getting the ninth. Righthander John Brebbia, who compiled a 2.44 ERA in 50 games, will see some late action, as will righthander Matt Bowman, the Cardinals’ best at escaping jams last year. That last trait is something Dominic Leone had for Toronto in 2017. Still another righthander, Bud Norris, had 19 saves for the L.A. Angels and has been slotted as a late-inning hurler. On the left side, Tyler Lyons, whose balky right knee might prevent him from being a starter again, has closer’s experience and a swing-and-miss slider. Brett Cecil had a rocky first year with the Cardinals but has been working on a sinker that might make him more effective. And, of course, there always is righthander Alex Reyes, whose 2018 clock might not start until May. Reyes, rebounding from Tommy John surgery, may not be in the bullpen long, but that is where he’s likely to begin.

TUIVAILALA’S 2017 STATS 3-3 RECORD 2.55 ERA 0 SAVES 42.1 IP 34 Ks

11 WALKS

35 HITS ALLOWED

BULLPEN 2017 STATS Norris

Player Gregerson Brebbia* Bowman Leone Norris Lyons Cecil Sherriff Reyes** Gant

IP Rec. ERA SV Ks BB HA 61 2-3 4.57 1 70 20 62 51.2 0-0 2.44 0 51 11 37 58.2 3-6 3.99 2 46 18 52 70.1 3-0 2.56 1 81 23 51 62 2-6 4.21 19 74 27 56 54 4-1 2.83 3 68 20 39 67.1 2-4 3.88 1 66 16 67 14.1 2-1 3.14 0 15 4 13 46 4-1 1.57 1 52 23 33 4.67 0-1 4.67 0 11 10 17

WHAT IF IT DOESN’T HAPPEN? Righthander John Gant is proving to be a good insurance policy. He had several dominant multiinning performances this spring and could be a spot starter or a long man. Veteran Jason Motte, who had 42 saves for the club in 2012, will be on hand at Memphis, and side-wheeling righthander Josh Lucas, who was the closer at Memphis last year, opened eyes this spring by being able to get lefthanded hitters out, too. Righthander Mike Mayers, who has struggled in a couple of big-league trials in 2016 and 2017, has shown much more velocity and poise as a reliever. He was the pitching surprise of camp. Righthanders Dakota Hudson and Ryan Helsley, both of whom finished the season at Memphis last year, are seen as possible bullpen weapons. Hudson, however, is likely to be used more as a starter in the minors rather than in the big-league bullpen. Former New York Mets lefthander Sean Gilmartin will provide additional depth at Memphis. Rick Hummel @cmshhummel on Twitter rhummel@post-dispatch.com

Gant

*Independent league, **2016 stats

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BASEBALL PREVIEW

S24 • ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH

M 1 • SUNDAY • 03.25.2018 CHRIS LEE • P-D

CL Cardinals have a flock of candidates but no one whose experience stands out

CLOSING TIME

Gregerson

BY RICK HUMMEL • St. Louis Post-Dispatch

WHAT NEEDS TO BE PROVEN After seemingly decades of the club having a lockdown closer, from Al Hrabosky to Bruce Sutter to Todd Worrell to Lee Smith to Tom Henke to Dennis Eckersley to Jason Isringhausen to Jason Motte to Trevor Rosenthal, the Cardinals really have little inkling how this role will evolve this year. Luke Gregerson has been a closer for San Diego and Houston, but he had just one save last year. Bud Norris, signed in the spring, had 19 for the Angels. Lefthander Tyler Lyons had some closer experience late last season with the Cardinals. Those three may get the bulk of late innings early in the season, along with Toronto acquisition Dominic Leone. John Brebbia, a 2017 surprise, might get a chance, as well as hard-throwing Sam Tuivailala, who finally is out of options and won’t be traveling the Interstate 55 corridor. Gregerson isn’t a hard thrower, thus not the strikeout machine that many closers are, but he depends on movement and location with two sliders. Norris found himself a closer when the Angels had some injuries last season and did a good enough job, although he prefers to start. Lyons has a dynamite slider, which is a strikeout pitch, mostly to lefthanded hitters but he can get righthanded batters, too. Leone has seemed best suited to wriggling out of situations where he would enter with runners already on but impressed manager Mike Matheny and pitching coach Mike Maddux with his ability to pitch the ninth in the spring.

GREGERSON’S 2017 STATS (With Astros)

1 SAVE 4 SAVE OPPORTUNITIES 2-3 RECORD

4.57 ERA 61 IP

70 Ks

20 WALKS

62 HITS ALLOWED

WHAT IF IT DOESN’T HAPPEN? The Cardinals plan to convert any or all of the following three — Dakota Hudson, Ryan Helsley and Jordan Hicks – to relievers if they perceive a need, or even if they don’t. Hudson would be the most ready experience-wise, but Helsley and Hicks throw harder, with Hicks capable of hitting 100 miles an hour. They might not jump into the closer’s role, but they could be lateinning men. The missing link might be Alex Reyes, who had a 1.57 earned-run average in 2016 before suffering an elbow injury last spring that cost him a season. It would be a major jump to move him to the closer’s role, but he has the high 90s fastball and other pitches to do it. He is more likely to start his season in a setup role when he joins the team in late April or early May after he is deemed strong enough following his surgery a year before. On a Memphis contract is Motte, who had 42 saves in 2012 and got the last out of the World Series the year before. Tuivailala has had closer experience in the minors and just has needed a little broader assortment to make it to the majors. Better command of his curveball could be the answer for the former infielder. And then there is righthander Matt Bowman, who has been very effective as a jam-escaper but has a deceptive delivery and good enough control that he also could close. But who will the closer be? Only the shadow knows.

Bowman

Rick Hummel @cmshhummel on Twitter rhummel@post-dispatch.com

CHRIS LEE • P-D

OF Pham and Fowler are taking on new challenges, while Ozuna is on a new team

TRIPLE THREAT

Pham

BY RICK HUMMEL • St. Louis Post-Dispatch

WHAT NEEDS TO BE PROVEN

Tommy Pham hasn’t been a center fielder on a regular basis, nor has Dexter Fowler played right field other than in spring training. But both seemed comfortable enough in those roles, with Fowler piling up several assists early in the spring schedule, although he doesn’t have the prototypical right-field arm. By playing right rather than center, Fowler, 32, will have less strain on the right heel spur that periodically has bothered him. Pham, who has played center field in the minors, should be able to cover side to side. He throws more from the side than overhand, but his arm appears adequate and accurate. New left fielder Marcell Ozuna is a Gold Glover at that position and surely could play right and probably center, too. But the Cardinals are content to keep him in left and have him concentrate mostly on hitting fourth. With Fowler first, Pham second and Ozuna fourth, the Cardinals lineup should be able to score more consistently. And Ozuna gives the club its most feared hitter since the days of Matt Holliday, and Albert Pujols before that. It would help if Fowler’s legs held up to where he could steal some bases. It also would help if Pham, his own worst critic even though he had a breakout year in 2017, can dial down any disappointment or frustration that he might feel after a particularly bad day and not work himself into a lather. He never has played close to 162 games, and the Cardinals need him for at least 150. Pham wants to — and will — steal bases, but he might have to govern how often he runs as the season gets deeper so he can be strong at the end.

2017 COMBINED STATS (Pham, Fowler)

.286 AVERAGE 137 RBI

218 KS

44 DOUBLES 11 TRIPLES 32 STEALS

247 HITS 134 WALKS 41 HRs

2017 INDIVIDUAL STATS PHAM .306 avg. • 23 HRs 73 RBI • 136 hits 22 doubles • 2 triples 71 BB • 25 SB • 117 Ks

FOWLER .264 avg. • 18 HRs 64 RBI • 111 hits 22 doubles • 9 triples 63 BB • 7 SB • 101 Ks

OZUNA’S 2017 STATS (with Marlins)

.312 AVERAGE 124 RBI

144 KS

30 DOUBLES 2 TRIPLES 1 STEAL

191 HITS 64 WALKS 37 HRs

WHAT IF IT DOESN’T HAPPEN? Jose Martinez established himself as someone who could play regularly at first base or the outfield last year, although his best work is done with his bat. He developed more of an uppercut swing so he could hit for power, and he cracked 14 homers in 272 at-bats while hitting .309 overall and a major-league high .462 as a pinch hitter. Martinez could play both corners. Harrison Bader showed speed and flashes of power in two stints with the team last year and can play all three outfield positions. But there is a host of young outfielders behind these two. Tyler O’Neill, a 22-year-old who belted 31 home runs in Class AAA, didn’t get much chance this spring because of an oblique strain and then a hamstring injury, but he showed better speed and defensive ability than expected. Adolis Garcia, a Cuban who signed with the Cardinals only last year, is fast rising and should be with the club sometime this year. He has speed, power and the ability to play center. Fellow Cuban Randy Arozarena is a bit behind Garcia but has similar skills. And Oscar Mercado, who should be at Class AAA this year, is a fearless base-stealer and excellent outfielder. Infielders Breyvic Valera and Yairo Munoz showed the ability to play outfield. Munoz has a right-field arm and the skills to play center. With his infielding background, he seems likely to make the club. Rick Hummel @cmshhummel on Twitter rhummel@post-dispatch.com

Bader

BASEBALL PREVIEW

03.25.2018 • SUNDAY • M 1

ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH • S25 CHRIS LEE • P-D

1B Carpenter has changed throwing motion to avoid pain and stay in the lineup

STRESS TEST BY RICK HUMMEL • St. Louis Post-Dispatch

WHAT NEEDS TO BE PROVEN Matt Carpenter can’t be subject to right shoulder or back discomfort as he has been the past couple of seasons. As the team’s only lefthanded hitter (excluding switch hitters) with consistent home run power, Carpenter is needed in the middle of the lineup, specifically in the No. 3 spot. If that doesn’t work, of course, he would go back to hitting first, where his production has been much better historically. Last year, Carpenter’s initial one at first base, he was much improved defensively by the end of the season. He still is programmed to play other positions this year, and with his new throwing motion, which should take some stress off his shoulder, he will play some third base and second base. Carpenter’s range will be modest at first base but he possesses good hands. And his arm, while mediocre at third, is above average at first. After several stretches last year when he ventured out of the strike zone and tried to hit for more power, Carpenter found his batting eye toward the end of the season where, with his shoulder hurting, he had to marshal how many times he actually could swing the bat. Thus, he drew many more walks. Those walks this year, even if Carpenter isn’t hitting toward his norm, will give cleanup man Marcell Ozuna somebody else to drive in. Carpenter’s .241 average last year surely was an aberration. A more likely expectation would be .270 with 20-25 homers and 85 RBIs.

CARPENTER’S 2017 STATS

.241 AVERAGE 69 RBI

497 AB 125 KS 31 DOUBLES

2 TRIPLES 2 STEALS

120 HITS 109 WALKS 23 HRs

WHAT IF IT DOESN’T HAPPEN? The Cardinals actually played some of their best ball down the stretch in last year’s pedestrian season when Jose Martinez was at first base. The 6-foot-7 Martinez is a work in progress at the bag, but he can hit. He carries into the season a 27-game streak in which he has reached base at least once. He hit safely in 24 of those games. But with Martinez in the lineup, this means he isn’t on the bench, where he was a major-leagueleading .462 as a pinch hitter. Luke Voit, who was a good pinch hitter for a young player and who has some sock, probably could play first base for some teams. But the Cardinals probably want him playing every day at Memphis, where he spent much of last season, and ready to jump in when needed. Voit is in much better shape than he was last year and should be quicker to the ball both at first and in left field, where he might get an occasional turn. Patrick Wisdom will be playing third base at Memphis, in all likelihood, but he showed he not only was more comfortable around the first-base bag in spring training, but he made several outstanding plays. In the future, catcher Andrew Knizner, who has above average power, could emerge as a first baseman, with manager Mike Matheny giving him some time there in spring training.

Carpenter

Martinez

Rick Hummel @cmshhummel on Twitter rhummel@post-dispatch.com

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BASEBALL PREVIEW

S26 • ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH

M 1 • SUNDAY • 03.25.2018 CHRIS LEE • P-D

2B Cardinals are happy with Wong but need him to stay healthy enough to play

MORE, PLEASE

Wong

BY RICK HUMMEL • St. Louis Post-Dispatch

WONG’S 2017 STATS

WHAT NEEDS TO BE PROVEN That Kolten Wong, the unquestioned starter at the position, can play more than two-thirds of a season. He played in exactly two-thirds of last season’s games at 108, and that isn’t enough. But to counteract his persistent elbow and triceps ailments, Wong has embarked on yoga and pilates programs. He has to be on the field for 140 or more games because the Cardinals don’t have a strong defender to replace him. He also has improved his offense to the point he had a career-high .376 on-base percentage last year. Wong, the Cardinals’ top draft pick in 2011, has become more stable in the field. He always had been able to turn in the spectacular play but would be hurt by lapses on the easier ones, though that changed last year. He turns the double play well with quick feet and a strong arm, when healthy. And he finally has come to grips with hitting down in the lineup. His on-base percentage hitting seventh or eighth last year was higher than his OBP overall. He hit a career-best .285 last year, albeit with a career low four home runs, but he has ascertained that he doesn’t need to swing for homers, especially where he is in the lineup. With his speed, Wong could help reshape the Cardinals’ offense a bit if he takes more chances on the bases. He was eight for 10 in steals last year and seven for seven the year before, but he has stolen as many as 20 in a season. He ran at will, and successfully, in the spring. No need to take Wong out against most lefthanders, as he has shown manager Mike Matheny that he can hit them. Wong averaged .274 against southpaws last season.

.273 AVERAGE 42 RBI

AB 354 60 KS 27 DOUBLES

3 TRIPLES 8 STEALS

101 HITS 41 WALKS 4 HRs

WHAT IF IT DOESN’T HAPPEN? Either Jedd Gyorko, who has started twice as many games at second base as he has any other position, or former regular second baseman Matt Carpenter could take over if Wong was sidelined. Next would be Greg Garcia, capable of backing up at all the infield positions except first base. The lefthanded-hitting Garcia, who was Wong’s infield teammate at the University of Hawaii and through a few stops in the Cardinals’ system, is a good contact hitter, capable of hitting .250 or so if he played for stretches of time. His best value is as a pinch hitter, and the Cardinals have so little lefthanded hitting on their bench, or even on their club. For this reason, switch-hitting infielder-outfielder Breyvic Valera, who lists second base as one of his defensive spots, could be up at some point. Valera, while being a dinosaur in that he walks more than he strikes out, is considered only a modest defender, and the Cardinals have enough of those in their infield already. Max Schrock, a well-regarded player acquired from the Oakland organization, figures to be at Memphis, having been set back in spring because of an oblique problem. The lefthanded batter hit .321 and had only 42 strikeouts in 417 at-bats at Class AA Midland. Wilfredo Tovar, who hit .253 at Memphis, can play second and shortstop and is good at both.

Carpenter

Rick Hummel @cmshhummel on Twitter rhummel@post-dispatch.com

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BASEBALL PREVIEW

03.25.2018 • SUNDAY • M 1

ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH • S27 CHRIS LEE • P-D

SS DeJong’s rookie season surprised many, but now he faces sophomore challenge

DO IT AGAIN

DeJong

BY RICK HUMMEL • St. Louis Post-Dispatch

DeJONG’S 2017 STATS

WHAT NEEDS TO BE PROVEN A year ago, after hitting .300 for the Cardinals and making the National League AllStar team in his rookie season, Aledmys Diaz expected to be the regular shortstop. Instead, he wound up being a utility player at Class AAA Memphis and then was traded to Toronto. Paul DeJong took over the position in late June and finished the year with 25 homers and was second in Rookie of the Year voting in the National League. With the demise of Diaz as Exhibit A, how does DeJong progress rather than regress? One thing DeJong improved on late last season was his ability to take a walk. But he still had 124 strikeouts and just 21 walks for the year and needs to be more disciplined at the plate without sacrificing his aggressiveness. Last year, DeJong showed he could play with a lot on his plate. He was a regular shortstop and hitting third as a rookie. This year, he is expected to be the chief protector for cleanup man Marcell Ozuna. Given that he hit 38 homers combined at Memphis and St. Louis last year, DeJong could be expected to hit 25 to 30 this year. The Illinois State graduate is a sharp, eager student, and the staff expects him to adjust to the opposition’s adjustments. Defensively, DeJong seems more consistent and more confident than Diaz. He is working on going into the hole to make more plays. He has a strong, accurate arm and covers decent ground. His future, however, is likely to be at third base, but not for at least a couple of years. Longtime infield coach Jose Oquendo has returned to the staff as a full-time coach and should help make DeJong the best defender he can be. He won’t be a Gold Glover, but 25-homer hitters as middle infielders are golden, nonetheless.

.285 AVERAGE 65 RBI

417 AB 124 KS

26 DOUBLES 1 TRIPLE 1 STEAL

119 HITS 21 WALKS 25 HRs

WHAT IF IT DOESN’T HAPPEN? The next shortstop in line could be former Oakland farmhand Yairo Munoz, who hit well at Class AA Midland (.316) and Class AAA Nashville (.289) last year, totaling 13 home runs, and dazzled both at bat and in the field this spring. Greg Garcia, who was a shortstop at the University of Hawaii, also could fill in. Wilfredo Tovar will play short and second at Memphis, and Alex Mejia, who also will be there, is a slick glove man at any infield position. The Cardinals have several shortstops down the line in the system, but they won’t be ready for a couple of years, at least, so a loss of DeJong would be critical. DeJong, however, appears to be very durable. The hot summers in St. Louis and the fact that he is expected to play nearly every day and hit high in the lineup will be reminders that DeJong sometimes needs to conserve his energy in pregame workouts. Rick Hummel @cmshhummel on Twitter rhummel@post-dispatch.com

Munoz

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BASEBALL PREVIEW

S28 • ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH

M 1 • SUNDAY • 03.25.2018 CHRIS LEE • P-D

3B Gyorko can hit and is solid in the field, but he has to stay in the lineup

BUILT TO LAST?

Gyorko

BY RICK HUMMEL • St. Louis Post-Dispatch

WHAT NEEDS TO BE PROVEN Jedd Gyorko streamlined his body to be able to last an entire season. Gyorko was hitting .300 with 14 homers and 47 runs batted in on July 15 last year but was hampered by leg problems thereafter and hit just six homers and drove in 20 runs in the last 2½ months, finishing at .272. After taking over from released Jhonny Peralta, Gyorko surprised many by how good he was at the position, both with sure hands and a strong arm. And his range was sufficient. He just has to show he can put a whole season together. To that end, the Cardinals were proactive, using him sparingly in the first half of the exhibition schedule this year. At age 29, he may be coming of age as a more disciplined hitter. His batting average and on-base percentage (.341) easily were career highs. He also went from nine doubles to 21 and got 67 RBIs out of his 20 homers after he netted just 59 RBIs while hitting 30 homers the previous season. Gyorko has played a lot of second base in his career and also started at first base and shortstop for the Cardinals in his first season with them in 2016, but he largely will be slotted at third base this year.

GYORKO’S 2017 STATS .272 AVERAGE 67 RBI

426 AB 105 KS 21 DOUBLES

3 TRIPLES 6 STEALS

116 HITS 47 WALKS 20 HRs

WHAT IF IT DOESN’T HAPPEN? Now that Matt Carpenter appears to be over his back and shoulder problems, he is the next likely third baseman and, in fact, will play there anyway when Gyorko needs a rest. Carpenter has made more than twice as many starts at third as any other position in his major-league career. Should there be a long absence for Gyorko and Carpenter remains at first, the Cardinals could reach to Class AAA Memphis for Patrick Wisdom, who hit 31 homers and drove in 89 runs for the Pacific Coast League champions and also played well in the field. His career on-base percentage of .309 in the minors is a concern, but he has the power and defensive ability to play in the majors. On a shorter-term basis, Greg Garcia, whose 23 starts at the position were the most he made at any spot last year, could handle third base. Garcia’s fairly hidden talent is that he has a lofty career .372 on-base percentage, achieved mostly as an extra man. At Memphis, Alex Mejia has a light bat but is an excellent glove man. Breyvic Valera, a switch-hitter who batted .314 at Memphis and is back there again, also could play third. Yairo Munoz has pop, as exhibited by his 13 home runs in the Oakland A’s system last year, and he has a strong arm. Rick Hummel @cmshhummel on Twitter rhummel@post-dispatch.com

Garcia

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BASEBALL PREVIEW

03.25.2018 • SUNDAY • M 1

ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH • S29 CHRIS LEE • P-D

C Molina has defied talk that he gets worn down with strong second halves

NOTHIN’ TO PROVE BY RICK HUMMEL • St. Louis Post-Dispatch

WHAT NEEDS TO BE PROVEN Nothing much really, in the case of Yadier Molina, an eight-time Gold Glove winner, although denied the award the last two years. Molina is starting the first year of a three-year deal and he wants to be a regular catcher for those three years, which would take him to age 38 and potential retirement. At ages 34 and 35 the last two seasons, Molina hit .365 after the All-Star break in 2016 and had nine of his 18 home runs and 42 of his 82 RBIs after the break last year even though he played in 14 fewer games than in the first half. This seems to belie the theory that he was being played too much by manager Mike Matheny, and Molina actually lashed out on social media when he thought Matheny had suggested he was tired. The only thing that really kept Molina out of the lineup last year was the concussion he suffered in the last week of the season. After years of catching base-stealers at higher than a 40 percent clip, Molina sank to a career-low 21 percent in 2016 but that picked up to 36 percent last year. For his career, he leads all active catchers at 41 percent efficiency. Molina still can be counted on to catch 130 games or more. Matheny often lets Molina decide when he needs to take a day off, and that may not change too much. Molina doesn’t have to prove he can hit home runs, even though he popped 18 last year and still will occupy a key spot in the batting order, probably sixth. One of the great facets of Molina’s game is that, by modern standards, he doesn’t strike out. He fanned 74 times last year, a career high, but he still has only 658 strikeouts in 6,092 at-bats. Molina’s strong hit-and-run ability moves baserunners and keeps the Cardinals out of double-play situations that could arise because of his lack of speed.

MOLINA’S 2017 STATS .273 AVERAGE 82 RBI

501 AB 74 KS

27 DOUBLES 1 TRIPLE 9 STEALS

137 HITS 28 WALKS 18 HRs

WHAT IF IT DOESN’T HAPPEN? The Cardinals are in trouble if Molina goes down, even with the promising Carson Kelly as their catcher in waiting at Memphis. The former infielder has shown a strong arm and has established rapport with pitchers. Clearly, he didn’t stay sharp last year as a parttime player with only 69 at-bats in 34 games in which he batted .174 with just one homer. This spring, he worked on using his body more to supply power, although he was only three for 30 and trying to pull too many balls before he was sent out to play every day, as is John Mozeliak’s philosophy. For now, the backup is Francisco Pena, son of former Cardinal Tony Pena, although Steven Baron, another non-roster receiver, impressed in camp and is likely to assist Kelly at Memphis. Pena has backed up at Baltimore and Kansas City in recent years, and Baron briefly was with Seattle three years ago. Beyond Kelly, there is Andrew Knizner, who has power and had a strong year at Class AA Springfield and might wind up there again, at least for a while.

Molina

Rick Hummel @cmshhummel on Twitter rhummel@post-dispatch.com

Kelly

BASEBALL PREVIEW

S30 • ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH • M 1 • Sunday • 03.25.2018

03.25.2018 • Sunday • M 1 • ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH • S31

CARDINALS 25-MAN ROSTER PHOTOS BY CHRIS LEE • clee@post-dispatch.com

MATT BOWMAN • RHP • No. 67

JOHN BREBBIA • RHP • No. 60

MATT CARPENTER • 1B/UT • No. 13

BRETT CECIL • LHP • No. 27

PAUL DEJONG • SS • No. 12

DEXTER FOWLER • RF • No. 25

GREG GARCIA • INF • No. 35

LUKE GREGERSON • RHP • No. 44

JEDD GYORKO • 3B • No. 3

DOMINIC LEONE • RHP • No. 55

TYLER LYONS • LHP • No. 70

CARLOS MARTINEZ • RHP • No. 18

JOSE MARTINEZ • OF/1B • No. 38

MILES MIKOLAS • RHP • No. 39

YADIER MOLINA • C • No. 4

YAIRO MUNOZ • UT • No. 62

BUD NORRIS • RHP • No. 26

MARCELL OZUNA • LF • No. 23

FRANCISCO PENA • C • No. 46

TOMMY PHAM • CF • No. 28

SAM TUIVAILALA • RHP • No. 64

MICHAEL WACHA • RHP • No. 52

ADAM WAINWRIGHT • RHP • No. 50

LUKE WEAVER • RHP • No. 7

KOLTEN WONG • 2B • No. 16

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BASEBALL PREVIEW

S32 • ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH

M 1 • SUNDAY • 03.25.2018

AMERICAN LEAGUE

CHASING THE ASTROS Red Sox and Yankees are loaded, too, but can anyone catch Houston? BY JEFF GORDON • St. Louis Post-Dispatch

Order of projected finish

AL EAST

AL CENTRAL

Martinez

AL WEST

Kluber

Altuve

BOSTON RED SOX

2017 RECORD • 93-69 2018 OUTLOOK • Looking to counter New York’s Giancarlo Stanton acquisition, the Red Sox added slugger J.D. Martinez on a five-year, $110 million free-agent contract to serve as their designated hitter. He launched 45 homers in 119 games last year, so he will fit in nicely behind Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi and Hanley Ramirez in Boston’s powerful lineup. OUT TO PROVE • Can starting pitcher David Price get healthy and stay healthy? He worked just 741/3 innings last season. If Price can deliver 200 quality innings, he, Chris Sale and Rick Porcello could head a championship-caliber starting rotation. Depth is a concern in the rotation, and the departure of reliever Addison Reed raises bridge concerns to the game’s best closer, Craig Kimbrel.

Stanton

CLEVELAND INDIANS

2017 RECORD • 102-60 2018 OUTLOOK • This division will be terrible again, with most of the teams in rebuilding mode. So the Indians should win again, which is why their front office decided not to make major roster upgrades. Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer head an excellent starting rotation, and third baseman Jose Ramirez is an emerging offensive force in the middle of the batting order. OUT TO PROVE • The Indians lost reliable power hitter Carlos Santana in free agency and replaced him with a lesser hitter, Yonder Alonso. Jay Bruce and Austin Jackson also are gone, so the Indians must demonstrate they can keep up with the other AL contenders that muscled up.

HOUSTON ASTROS

2017 RECORD • 101-61 2018 OUTLOOK • The reigning world champions could be even stronger this season. They added starting pitcher Gerrit Cole to a rotation already featuring Dallas Keuchel, Justin Verlander and Lance McCullers. Hector Rondon adds to the bullpen, too, and their loaded batting order featuring Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and George Springer should keep raking in their hitter’s park. OUT TO PROVE • As the Chicago Cubs demonstrated with a months-long funk, the world championship hangover is a thing. And Carlos Beltran’s retirement subtracted valuable clubhouse leadership. It will be interesting to see how some of the younger players handle prosperity.

Buxton

NEW YORK YANKEES

2017 RECORD • 91-71 2018 OUTLOOK • Adding slugger Giancarlo Stanton to a batting order that features mashers Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez wasn’t fair to the rest of the AL. How will opposing pitching staffs handle that power? The Yankees have plenty of prospects rising through the ranks, including starting pitcher Chance Adams. So they can make more trades as needed. OUT TO PROVE • The Yankees have enough offense to win it all, but their pitching quality is debatable. Starter Masahiro Tanaka must bounce back from a tough 2017 campaign, and CC Sabathia must battle on with an arthritic right knee. Getting a full season of Sonny Gray would help, if he can stay healthy. Closer Aroldis Chapman saved just 22 games last season after battling shoulder soreness and inconsistency.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

2017 RECORD • 76-86 2018 OUTLOOK • Former Cardinals abound! The Blue Jays are counting on Randal Grichuk to provide power as the everyday right fielder, replacing franchise cornerstone Jose Bautista. Aledmys Diaz gets his chance with injury-plagued shortstop Troy Tulowitzki back on the shelf. Starting pitcher Jaime Garcia and reliever Seung-Hwan Oh also migrated north of the border to bolster the Toronto staff. OUT TO PROVE • By hanging on to third baseman Josh Donaldson as he nears free agency, the Blue Jays signaled they are going for it this season. By not adding significant help this winter, they argued that their nucleus is good enough to win. We’ll see about that.

MINNESOTA TWINS

2017 RECORD • 85-77 2018 OUTLOOK • Rebuilds are painful, but they can pay off. The resurgent Twins seem ready to contend, so they loaded up with veteran pitching — including former Cardinals Zach Duke and Lance Lynn. Jake Odorizzi, Addison Reed, Michael Pineda and Fernando Rodney also add quality and quantity to the staff. Like the Indians, the Twins could beat up on awful division rivals. OUT TO PROVE • Outfielder Byron Buxton and third baseman Miguel Sano must fulfill their vast potential to make this rebuild pay off. The loss of emerging shortstop Jorge Polanco to an 80-game drug suspension hurt the cause. On the other hand, outfielder Eddie Rosario arrived last season while posting .290/.328/.507.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS

2017 RECORD • 80-82 2018 OUTLOOK • As the team rebuilds, it must get stopgap production from former Cardinal Jon Jay in center field and Lucas Duda at first base. Lineup cornerstones Lorenzo Cain and Eric Hosmer left big voids after departing as free agents. Outfielder Alex Gordon is still around, but he regressed to an awful .608 OPS last season. Kansas City is unlikely to see another parade for awhile. OUT TO PROVE • The Royals want to remain respectable while retooling. So catcher Salvador Perez still anchors the offense, and beloved third baseman Mike Moustakas returned at a discount when the rest of the big league teams passed on him.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX BALTIMORE ORIOLES

2017 RECORD • 75-87 2018 OUTLOOK • Manny Machado got his wish and moved from third base back to shortstop. If he can still handle that position defensively, he will drive his potential free agent price even higher. Also headed toward free agency are outfielder Adam Jones and pitcher Zach Britton, so this team will be popular with major league scouts. OUT TO PROVE • To avoid a summer fire sale of looming free agents, the Orioles must climb back into contention for a playoff spot. That is a tall order for a team that shopped the bargain bin this winter to land starting pitcher Andrew Cashner and former Cardinals outfielder Colby Rasmus. Losing slugger Mark Trumbo to a quadriceps strain adds to the challenge.

2017 RECORD • 67-95 2018 OUTLOOK • Contention remains off in the distance, but the White Sox kept slugger Jose Abreu and starting pitcher James Shields ... for now. They also added stopgap pitchers Miguel Gonzalez, Hector Santiago, Joakim Soria and Luis Avilan to hold the fort while the franchise tries to develop more power arms. OUT TO PROVE • Starting pitcher Lucas Giolito and second baseman Yoan Moncada could speed the rebuild by breaking out this season, and upon return from a shoulder injury Carlos Rodon has the potential to be an ace. Avisail Garcia stepped up last season, but the White Sox must locate more outfield offense to reemerge as a threat.

DETROIT TIGERS TAMPA BAY RAYS

2017 RECORD • 80-82 2018 OUTLOOK • The Rays offloaded lots of talent, including hitters Evan Longoria, Logan Morrison, Steven Souza Jr. and Corey Dickerson and pitchers Alex Cobb, Jake Odorizzi and Brad Boxberger. They opt to operate on the cheap this season. This is another team that has drawn the ire of the Players Association by refusing to invest soaring MLB revenue into proven talent. OUT TO PROVE • Plenty of guys are capable of getting on base, but where is the power? Longoria’s trade left a lineup hole that Matt Duffy will strain to fill. Outfielders Carlos Gomez and Denard Span are looming disappointments, too. And will Brad Miller come close to hitting 30 homers again? Shortstop prospect Willy Adames could make an impact.

2017 RECORD • 64-98 2018 OUTLOOK • The Tigers are rebuilding, as the trade of second baseman Ian Kinsler to Anaheim for prospects underscored. They took low-cost flyers on pitchers Mike Fiers and Francisco Liriano to lessen the pressure on their younger hurlers as this process unfolds. OUT TO PROVE • This team could be less awful if veteran slugger Miguel Cabrera bounces back after a .249/.329/.399 season and if designated hitter Victor Martinez stays healthy and productive. As they regroup, the Tigers could really use another 101 RBIs season from emerging star Nick Castellanos.

Jeff Gordon • 314-340-8175 @gordoszone on Twitter jgordon@post-dispatch.com

Trout

ANAHEIM ANGELS

2017 RECORD • 80-82 2018 OUTLOOK • While other teams refused to spend money during the offseason, the Angels went crazy. Pitcherslugger Shohei Ohtani was the prize catch, but they signed infielder Zack Cozart, retained slugger Justin Upton and traded for second baseman Ian Kinsler. Albert Pujols trimmed down in the offseason to alleviate his chronic foot problems and secure more work at first base. At 38, “El Hombre” also hopes to bounce back offensively after producing a dismal OPS of .672 last season. OUT TO PROVE • The Angels have been wasting prime production from outfielder Mike Trout. Now they might finally have a team capable of earning a wild card berth and making a run — as long as Ohtani is the real thing. His early spring returns were disconcerting.

SEATTLE MARINERS

2017 RECORD • 78-84 2018 OUTLOOK • Speedy Dee Gordon wanted to play with fellow second baseman Robinson Cano, so he agreed to move to center field to facilitate his trade from Miami. Gordon adds base-stealing ability to a strong Seattle attack featuring Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager, Jean Segura and the living legend Ichiro Suzuki, who returned to Seattle to finish out his MLB career. OUT TO PROVE • This team will need much better starting pitching to contend. Former Cardinals Mike Leake and Marco Gonzales can only do so much. The M’s need “King Felix” Hernandez to win back his throne after an injury-plagued season and for lefty flamethrower James Paxton to finally stay healthy.

TEXAS RANGERS

2017 RECORD • 78-84 2018 OUTLOOK • The Rangers have surrounded aging starting pitcher Cole Hamels with a bunch of reclamation projects — Doug Fister, Mike Minor, Matt Moore and 900-year-old Bartolo Colon. Tim Lincecum got a look for bullpen duty. As with most Texas teams of the past, to rebound the Rangers will have to score lots of runs with Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus, Nomar Mazara and Shin-Soo Choo. OUT TO PROVE • Second baseman Rougned Odor looked like an emerging star worthy of a long-term commitment. Then he hit just .204 with 162 strikeouts last year. Imagine how much better the Rangers would be if Odor, Joey Gallo and Jurickson Profar all realized their full potential.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS

2017 RECORD • 75-87 2018 OUTLOOK • The A’s offense should be fine. Designated hitter Khris Davis hit 85 homers the last two seasons, and second baseman Jed Lowrie hit 49 doubles last season while posting an .808 OPS. The Next New Thing might be Matt Olson, who hit 24 homers in 59 games in 2017. Acquiring outfielder Stephen Piscotty from the Cardinals was a great move, as was the signing of catcher Jonathan Lucroy for just $6.5 million this season. OUT TO PROVE • The only hope for this low-budget franchise to contend is to develop outstanding young pitching, so they need Sean Manaea and Kendall Graveman to develop into reliable starters. The loss of young starter Jharel Cotton to Tommy John surgery was a major blow.

BASEBALL PREVIEW

03.25.2018 • SUNDAY • M 1

ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH • S33

NATIONAL LEAGUE

THE POWER OF THREE 2017 division champion Cubs, Nats and Dodgers are clear favorites BY JEFF GORDON • St. Louis Post-Dispatch

Order of projected finish

NL EAST

NL CENTRAL

Harper

NL WEST Schwarber

WASHINGTON NATIONALS

2017 RECORD • 97-65 2018 OUTLOOK • Outfielder Bryce Harper is headed toward free agency and a record-shattering contract. This is his chance to prove he is worth epic money. Can the Nationals keep him? If not, can they win a title before he leaves? Having Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez atop the starting rotation gives them a chance. So does the return of outfielder Adam Eaton, who missed most of last season with a knee injury. OUT TO PROVE • The Nationals return largely the same team, but it will be led by a new field staff. Can that leadership change finally put the team over the top? Manager Dave Martinez, hitting coach Kevin Long and former Cardinals pitching coach Derek Lilliquist bring fresh approaches to this familiar group.

Puig

CHICAGO CUBS

2017 RECORD • 92-70 2018 OUTLOOK • The Cubs remade their starting rotation, subtracting Jake Arrieta and John Lackey via free agency and adding Yu Darvish with a six-year, $126 million contract. They also will have a full season of Jose Quintana as well as the leadership of grizzled veteran Jon Lester. Their offense remains potent with Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo delivering power and Ian Happ providing a spark at the top. OUT TO PROVE • Rather than ship Kyle Schwarber to an American League team after his 2017 struggle, the Cubs kept him in the their batting order. We’ll see soon enough if their trust was misplaced. Schwarber trimmed down to improve his left field defense, but can he cut down on his strikeouts?

LOS ANGELES DODGERS

2017 RECORD • 104-58 2018 OUTLOOK • Most of the team that dominated the NL is back, eager to finish what it started last year — when it won 91 times during a 127-game stretch. Starting pitcher Yu Darvish moved on, but Clayton Kershaw and Alex Wood lead a strong starting rotation and Kenley Jansen anchors the lockdown bullpen. After finally getting back to the World Series last fall, perhaps the Dodgers can win it this time around. OUT TO PROVE • Outfielders Joc Pederson and Yasiel Puig could produce more as they continue to mature and develop. That is a scary proposition for the rest of the league. And veteran outfielder Matt Kemp, happily reunited with the Dodgers, looked spry during spring training.

AP Hoskins

Yelich

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

2017 RECORD • 66-96 2018 OUTLOOK • After unloading fading veterans, slashing payroll and starting an overdue youth movement led by slugger Rhys Hoskins and shortstop J.P. Crawford, the Phillies seem ready to come of age. So they invested $169 million on veterans in the free-agent marketplace, adding power-hitting first baseman Carlos Santana, starting pitcher Jake Arrieta and relievers Tommy Hunter and Pat Neshek. OUT TO PROVE • Arrieta, 32, was 54-24 with a 2.71 ERA in three seasons with the Cubs, but he didn’t attract huge long-term offers. Is he still a staff ace? He bet on himself by signing a three-year, $75 million contract. He could opt out after two seasons or expand it to five years and $135 million by achieving incentives.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

2017 RECORD • 86-76 2018 OUTLOOK • There is no doubting the Brew Crew offense this season after the addition of Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich to an already talented outfield. Ryan Braun could share first base with Eric Thames to ease the crowding, but his defensive transition has proved tricky. OUT TO PROVE • The Brewers shopped the high end of the free-agent pitching market but failed to bolster a starting rotation led by Zach Davies. With would-be ace Jimmy Nelson still recovering from shoulder repairs, this group needs help. Perhaps they could acquire it by trading one of their promising young outfielders, Domingo Santana or Keon Broxton.

Arenado

COLORADO ROCKIES

2017 RECORD • 87-75 2018 OUTLOOK • After earning their fourth playoff berth last season, they intend to contend again. So they spent heavily to add closer Wade Davis and set-up man Bryan Shaw and keep middle reliever Jake McKee. That strong bullpen supports home-grown starting pitchers Jon Gray, Kyle Freeland, Chad Bettis and Tyler Anderson. Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Story and Carlos Gonzalez drive a powerful offense. OUT TO PROVE • Keeping their competitive window open past this season won’t be easy, since Blackmon is headed toward free agency and Arenado is due a monstrous new contract. Do the Rockies have enough talent developing behind these guys?

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS NEW YORK METS

2017 RECORD • 70-92 2018 OUTLOOK • The Mets have phenomenal pitching potential led by Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey. But can all of these hard throwers stay healthy? Only deGrom did last season, finishing 15-10 with a 3.53 ERA. But now he is recovering from a back injury sustained early in spring training, and newcomer Jason Vargas suffered a broken bone in his nonpitching hand. This is not trending well. OUT TO PROVE • Third baseman David Wright is still recovering from back surgery and won’t play until mid-May at the earliest. So the Mets must get offensive mileage from other twilight-year veterans − third baseman Todd Frazier, right fielder Jay Bruce and first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. How much do they have left?

ATLANTA BRAVES

2017 RECORD • 72-90 2018 OUTLOOK • The Braves timed their rebuild to the construction of their new suburban ballpark. Now the fun may start with elite outfield prospect Ronald Acuna Jr. joining Ender Inciarte, Ozzie Albies and, of course, Freddie Freeman in a promising offensive nucleus. They need shortstop Dansby Swanson, the first overall pick of the 2015 draft, to find some consistency at the plate. OUT TO PROVE • The rebuild could yield results this season if young pitchers Mike Foltynewicz, Sean Newcomb and Luiz Gohara mature on schedule. Julio Teheran and newcomers Brandon McCarthy and Scott Kazmir will provide veteran leadership.

2017 RECORD • 83-79 2018 OUTLOOK • The Cardinals aimed low in free agency, adding starting pitcher Miles Mikolas and reliever Luke Gregerson at modest cost. Reliable Lance Lynn is gone from the rotation, starter Adam Wainwright has reached the twilight of his career, and the reconfigured bullpen features many set-up guys but no established closer. Offensively, newcomer Marcell Ozuna adds outfield heft — but infielder Matt Carpenter struggled with injuries this spring and still must prove he can hit in the middle of the order. OUT TO PROVE • Converting pitching promise into production will be the key to this season. Luke Weaver, Sam Tuivailala. Jack Flaherty, Alex Reyes ... can these young hurlers realize their potential? Can they stay healthy? And what about the next wave with Dakota Hudson, Jordan Hicks, Ryan Helsey and Austin Gomber? Their development could give the front office the trade leverage to fill other holes as needed.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES

2017 RECORD • 75-87 2018 OUTLOOK • Andrew McCutchen turned back the clock and excelled last season, but his outfield colleagues faltered. Starling Marte earned an 80-game drug suspension, and Gregory Polanco languished on the disabled list. The ensuing Pirates’ struggle caused general manager Neal Huntington to hit the restart button and move McCutchen and ace pitcher Gerrit Cole. Handyman Josh Harrison has asked to be traded, so he could exit, too, as the Pirates reload. OUT TO PROVE • The Pirates need full, productive seasons from Marte and Polanco. That would take pressure off up-and-coming hitters like Josh Bell, Colin Moran and Austin Meadows — and a pitching staff that looks overmatched in this division.

MIAMI MARLINS

2017 RECORD • 77-85 2018 OUTLOOK • The Marlins have new ownership but the same old business model — slash payroll and play kids and castoffs. Their fan base is glad to be rid of former owner Jeffrey Loria, but Derek Jeter’s group looks no better. It spent $1.2 billion for the franchise, then started cutting. Speedster Dee Gordon exited in the fire sale, as did the excellent outfield of Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich. The Marlins should be absolutely terrible this season and for many years to come. OUT TO PROVE • Jeter talks a good game about rebuilding the right way. In due time we will know if ownership can actually execute this plan and build a winner. In the near term the team will pile up losses while generating huge profits thanks to its tiny payroll.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

2017 RECORD • 93-69 2018 OUTLOOK • The Diamondbacks acquired outfielders Steven Souza Jr. and Jarrod Dyson to replace the departed J.D. Martinez. They won’t completely fill that offensive void, of course, but they will add some power and fielding range, respectively. Paul Goldschmidt remains one of the top few hitters in the game, and David Peralta and A.J. Pollock are decent table setters for this likely contender. OUT TO PROVE • Pitching ace Zack Greinke won 17 games last season, which shocked nobody. But Robbie Ray’s 2.89 ERA was a surprise. Can he do that again? And what will former Cardinals phenom Shelby Miller add when he returns from Tommy John surgery? The bullpen still looks like it needs work despite adding Brad Boxberger and Yoshihisa Hirano.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

2017 RECORD • 64-98 2018 OUTLOOK • Rather than tear down and rebuild with youth — like other franchises that go south — the Giants added veterans Andrew McCutchen, Evan Longoria and Austin Jackson to their offense while seeking to rebound. Healthy seasons from Brandon Belt, Hunter Pence and Joe Panik also would make a huge difference, as would a strong comeback from surgical repairs by closer Mark Melancon. OUT TO PROVE • The best recent Giants teams featured strong pitching. Proven veterans Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija still lead the rotation, but the rest of the staff features more questions than answers.

SAN DIEGO PADRES CINCINNATI REDS

2017 RECORD • 68-94 2018 OUTLOOK • The Reds will be viable if starting pitchers Homer Bailey, Anthony DeSclafani and Brandon Finnegan can stay in the rotation. But DeSclafani suffered an oblique strain during the spring and Finnegan strained his biceps muscle. Joey Votto is still Joey Votto — posting offensive numbers off the charts — and Billy Hamilton can run wild when he isn’t striking out. OUT TO PROVE • The Reds want out of the division cellar. Young pitcher Luis Castillo could speed the rebuild, and elite infield prospect Nick Senzel could provide a midseason boost. The $66 million commitment to third baseman Eugenio Suarez reassured fans that the Reds are committed to regaining relevance. Jeff Gordon • 314-340-8175 @gordoszone on Twitter jgordon@post-dispatch.com

2017 RECORD • 71-91 2018 OUTLOOK • In the midst of a rebuild, the Padres dropped big coin on free-agent first baseman Eric Hosmer to gain his leadership skills. The Padres still have multiple lineup holes, which led to the stopgap additions of infielders Chase Headley and Freddy Galvis. A breakout from speedy outfielder Manuel Margot would help move things forward. Lefty reliever Brad Hand is a guy every other MLB team would want, but the rest of the Padres’ bullpen is shaky. OUT TO PROVE • Starting pitching remains a problem, too. There isn’t much beyond Clayton Richard and Dinelson Lamet, since former Cardinals prospect Luis Perdomo regressed. The Padres can only hope that viable back-ofthe-rotation options emerge from spring competition.

BASEBALL PREVIEW

03.25.2018 • SUNDAY • M 1

ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH • S35

WRITERS’ PREDICTIONS DERRICK GOOLD

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NL WEST

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BASEBALL PREVIEW

S38 • ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH

M 1 • SUNDAY • 03.25.2018

MEDIA VIEWS

SUNDAY SHOWCASE Cardinals still attractive to ESPN, which has two new announcers DAN CAESAR St. Louis Post-Dispatch

ESPN hasn’t gone all-in yet with the Cardinals, but the Redbirds again are expected to be a prime component of the network’s significantly retooled “Sunday Night Baseball” package, which includes Alex Rodriguez as an analyst. For the last eight years the network has selected the Cardinals for the maximum number of appearances on Sunday nights allowable under its contract with Major League Baseball. That figure usually is six, as it is this season. Last year they were scheduled for five appearances before the season began, and ended up maxing out at seven (they were on opening night, which did not count against the total). But they have not made the playoffs the last two years and heading into this season are scheduled for just two Sunday night appearances, both at home against the Cubs — on May 6 and July 29. However, ESPN’s Sunday night schedule is far from complete. It is filled only through May, plus four other later dates. That leaves 13 Sunday night matchups to be added, so unless the Cards are having a horrible season, expect to see ESPN grab them for more Sunday night appearances. “I fully anticipate we will max out on the Cardinals,” said ESPN manager of programming and acquisitions Rick Mace, adding that “Cardinals-Cubs is right there” with Yankees-Red Sox as one of the network’s best-drawing matchups. When the Cards faced the Cubs on opening night last season, the telecast drew 3.7 million viewers — the network’s most-watched opener ever. It didn’t hurt that the Cubs were playing their first game in more than a century as reigning World Series champions. Mace said ratings for Cards appearances last season on Sunday nights were up 20 percent over the previous year if that opener isn’t included, and if that is counted, the rise was 40 percent. And only three teams (Cubs, Yankees and Red Sox, in that order) drew better ratings on Sunday nights in 2017 than contests involving the Cardinals. “The (Cardinals) brand still resonates nationally,” he said. In addition, ESPN is showing the CardsCubs game on July 19, the Thursday after the All-Star Game. It is the only bigleague game scheduled that night as Major League Baseball and the network are presenting a showcase contest to be televised nationally, and it counts as a “Sunday Night Baseball” appearance for both teams. “It is a marquee game for the season,” Mace said. The Cardinals still have three “to be determined” slots on their TV schedule this season, all on Sundays and any of which ESPN could grab — June 17 vs. the Cubs, July 8 at San Francisco and Sept. 16 at home against the Dodgers.

NEW LOOK The “Sunday Night Baseball” booth has been significantly retooled, with the most prominent move being the addition of polarizing former player Rodriguez as an analyst. He replaces Aaron Boone, who left to manage the New York Yankees. There’s a new play-by-play announcer, too. Dan Schulman stepped down after seven seasons, saying he wants to spend more time with his family. He has been replaced by Matt Vasgersian, who also works for MLB Network as a studio host and play-by-play broadcaster. “It’s a real thrill for someone who still remembers his first minor-league bus trip in 1991 to have a chair like this one,” Vasgersian said. Jessica Mendoza returns as an analyst, and reporter Buster Olney also is back. The addition of Rodriguez, who has

been good as a studio analyst for Fox’s postseason baseball coverage the past two seasons and is to continue in that role, is the move making the biggest splash. But he also has many detractors stemming from his year-long player suspension in 2014 for violating Major League Baseball’s performance enhancing drug policy and his subsequent feud with the players’ union. He is a huge name, based not only on his notoriety but his Hall of Fame-caliber career from a statistical standpoint and his high-profile life off the field. He has dating relationships with celebrities (currently Jennifer Lopez) and recently was on “Saturday Night Live” and “The Tonight Show.” Plus he is host of a program on CNBC that centers on retired athletes who face financial trouble. He also has been a guest judge on CNBC’s “Shark Tank” program. Now ESPN is banking that he can bring viewers to “Sunday Night Baseball.” “Alex is one of the most recognizable personalities in all of sports, and he’s made a well-documented impact on the sports media landscape,” Stephanie Druley, ESPN senior vice president of events and studio production, said in a statement, adding that Rodriguez has a “dynamic personality and incredible baseball knowledge.” Rodriguez, who was in the booth for three games last season on Fox, was on a conference call with other members of the Sunday night broadcast team to promote the new lineup and was introspective. He was asked whether he will feel pressure in the new role. “I’ve got a masters at screwing up,” he said. “So I’m certainly ready for that. He added that he thinks it takes 2,500 at-bats — about five full seasons — to determine how good a player is. “I almost feel the same way about broadcasting,” he said. “And hopefully for our sake it doesn’t take me 2,500 hours or games. But I think there’s a certain amount of repetition that goes in, comfort level” to become acclimated.

REBUILDING REPUTATION Rodriguez was asked about how his move to TV in recent years has helped restore his reputation. “When you go on television and you go out and you talk about how much you love the game and you’re talking about great players and you’re trying to describe things to our fans, I think you have an opportunity to essentially take the helmet off and reveal a little bit more about who you are and make fun of yourself a great deal, which I love to do,” he said. “I actually love more when people make fun of me. ... So, yeah, I think it’s just been a good thing, but, again, being myself and trying to show how much I love the game and convey that is what I try to do.” He said he is a different man now than when he was involved in the controversies as a player. “I changed, and once I served my suspension and I had the whole year to sit down and reflect, I wanted to ... turn the lens inward and try to figure out a better way, because I knew that I needed some type of paradigm shift. And the suspension was long enough, unfortunately or fortunately, to allow me to think about changes and putting that change in motion. And I did not know at 40 coming back after suspension, after two hip surgeries, after two knee surgeries, if I was good enough to make the team or healthy enough to make the team. But I certainly wanted to hang out enough to prove to myself and others around me that I was incredibly grateful and thankful to have an opportunity to put the (Yankees) pinstripes back on and to be one of 750 of the lucky people that get to wear a Major League Baseball uniform. “And I knew I could control that part. I didn’t think or I didn’t know I could hit 33 home runs and help us get back to the postseason. But the first part I’m probably even more proud of.” Dan Caesar • 314-340-8175 @caesardan on Twitter dcaesar@post-dispatch.com

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Alex Rodriguez (left), Jessica Mendoza and Matt Vasgersian will be in the play-by-play booth for Sunday night baseball games on ESPN this season.

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