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Is Bibi’s Reign Over?
IS BIBI’S
REIGN OVER?
BY D. HART
“In those days, Israel had no king; all the people did whatever seemed right in their own eyes.” While this famous passage from Sefer Shoftim described the anarchy and chaos that prevailed three millennia ago in Judea, it could easily have been talking about the modern State of Israel.
It’s been less than a year since Israel got its first government in two years. In May, Blue and White leader Benny Gantz agreed to form a national unity coalition with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Coming after the country went to the polls an unprecedented three times, the two rivals decided to end the endless rounds of electioneering and work together to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic.
As part of the agreement, Netanyahu was to have stayed on as prime minister for 18 months, followed by Gantz taking the helm. The government was split evenly between the right-wing bloc led by Likud and Blue and White, with the latter getting control of key portfolios such as Justice, Defense, and Foreign Ministries.
Since then, it’s become abundantly clear that Israel may have gotten a government but the actual governing is nowhere to be found. The coalition was marred by infighting from the very first day, with Likud and Blue and White bickering over issues big and small. One senior minister compared it to a “wagon being pulled by obstinate mules running in opposite directions”; while the right-wing sought to reform the judicial system, Justice Minister Avi Nissenkoren labored to give Israel’s legal oligarchy as much power as he possibly could.
With COVID-19 raging, the government couldn’t even agree on the most basic of issues. Rather than work together to stop the pandemic from spreading, the two sides actively undermined each other at every opportunity.
When Health Minister Yuli Edelstein proposed capping demonstrations, Blue and White resisted as to not disturb the tens of thousands of people who protested every Saturday evening against Prime Minister Netanyahu. Upon attempting to raise the fines for schools that flouted the lockdown, Gantz found himself stymied by the charedi parties who feared for their Talmud Torahs and yeshivas.
Matters came to a head during a contentious cabinet meeting in November in which ministers were tasked with deciding whether to reopen schools at the end of the third lockdown. But little more than halfway into the marathon eight-hour debate, tensions exploded. Both Gantz and Netanyahu lost their cool, each accusing the other of willfully subordinating the country’s needs to his own political future.
“Why did we hold a meeting if there are no decisions? We sat for three hours and heard briefings, and now it’s being taken off [the agenda],” thundered Gantz. “This is going nowhere. It’s a shame we didn’t make preparations ahead of time. These discussions can’t go on like this.
Rivlin reluctantly gave Netanyahu the mandate to attempt to form a government last week Smotrich says his party will never join a coalition with the Arabs Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas is an unlikely partner for Bibi
While Gantz was referring to the dysfunctional meeting, his sentiments could have easily been describing the government as a whole. Nothing was getting done; each side worked against the other and trumpeted their success in thwarting the initiatives of what was supposed to be a coalition partner.
“Blue and White have formed a government within a government, an opposition within a coalition,” accused Netanyahu in December. No one was surprised when the coalition automatically dissolved after failing to pass an annual budget. The government meant to save Israel from the ravages of COVID-19 didn’t even last 10 months.
TO BIBI OR NOT TO BIBI
Like the previous three trips to the polls, the elections revolved around one issue, and one issue only: Bibi Netanyahu. Once, the dividing line between the right and left wing camps in Israel was support for a Palestinian State. Those days are gone; today, the wedge issue is supporting or opposing Netanyahu’s continued rule on the throne.
Under the new system, the radically left-wing Meretz and the nationalist New Hope led by Likud renegade Gideon Sa’ar could be considered political allies. The two parties make strange bedfellows; while Meretz has long ceased self-identifying as Zionist, New Hope vows to annex Judea and Samaria and reign in the High Court of Justice.
But uniting both factions is the strong opposition to Netanyahu. A veteran Likudnik, Sa’ar broke off from the Likud after falling out with the premier and took a slew of party veterans with him. He explicitly ruled out ever joining a Netanyahu-led government, reiterating time after time again that his party’s entire raison d’être was to end his rival’s reign at the top.
The elections were less about offering differing visions to the public and more a referendum on Netanyahu. As such, the prime minister’s main challenge was not convincing voters of the validity of his arguments but channeling as many right-wing votes as possible to parties that would join his future coalition.
This entailed actively manipulating the makeup of other parties. When Yamina leader Naftali Bennett refused to commit to supporting Netanyahu after the elections, the latter convinced the more amiable Betzalel Smotrich to split off and form his own independent slate known as Religious Zionism. To ensure that it would earn the necessary amount of votes needed to pass the 3.35% electoral threshold, Netanyahu successfully urged neo-Kahanist Itamar Ben Gvir to unite with the party he created with his own two hands.
Another goal was to suppress the Israeli Arab vote. Israel uses a proportional system to distribute 120 Knesset seats, in which a poor showing for one party causes all the others to gain. With the two political blocs neck and neck, even one Knesset
seat could mean the difference between forming a stable government and the end of Netanyahu’s political career.
In previous elections, Netanyahu’s anti-Arab rhetoric boomerang, driving angry voters to the polls and giving the Palestinian-nationalist Joint List an unprecedented 15 seats. This time around, the Likud took an opposite tack, running an unprecedented friendly campaign explicitly targeting Israeli Arabs.
The Likud’s rivals rubbed their eyes in astonishment. In the month leading up to the election, Netanyahu made a point of appearing in as many Arab cities as possible. One day, he was snapping photos in Umm Al Fahm with the two-millionth vaccinated Israeli; a week later, he was squatting in Bedouin tent in the dusty Negev alongside a dozen keffiyeh-wearing village elders.
Arabic-language billboards soon appeared urging the public to vote for “Abu Yair,” in line with the Arab custom of referring to someone by the name of his oldest son. Hammering home his message that the Joint List cared more about promoting Palestinian nationalism than caring for its own constituents, Netanyahu promised to launch an initiative eradicating crime in the Arab sector and expand economic opportunities.
“Just as I broke the Palestinian veto on relations with the Arab states, so I am breaking the Arab parties’ veto with the Arab citizens of Israel,” said Netanyahu. “I believe in [Zionist leader Ze’ev] Jabotinsky’s doctrine that all rights need to be given to every citizen in the State of Israel. We’re reaching out to Arab voters – vote for us.”
Replicating his accomplishment in engineering in a split between Bennett and Smotrich, Netanyahu successfully convinced Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas to break away from the Joint List and run independently, tapping into deep divisions between the secular Arab communists and hard-line Islamic extremists. Unlike the solidly anti-Netanyahu Joint List, Abbas had no problem cooperating with the Likud and publicly declared that he would work “with whoever solves our community’s problems.”
COUNTING THE VOTES
On election eve, it appeared that Netanyahu had all his ducks in a row. Initial results showed the Likud, Religious Zionism, the charedi parties, and Naftali Bennett’s Yamina earning between 61 and 63 seats, more than the 61 needed to form a coalition. It seemed that Netanyahu was well on his way to establishing a hard-right government that would grant Israel its longed-for political stability.
But like during elections 3.0 last March, Israelis went to bed with one result and awoke to another. By midday the next day, Ra’am pulled down an astonishing 5 seats, setting the pro-Netanyahu bloc back to 59 and giving the “Anyone But Bibi” alliance the necessary 61 needed to send Israel’s longest-serving premier packing.
Like in March 2020, what seemed like a clear Netanyahu victory quickly evaporated. And like in March 2020, there seemed no clear path for any political camp to form a government. If Netanyahu was short two seats, the opposing camp was comprised of a collection of factions who would find it
extremely difficult, if not impossible, to cooperate.
New Hope and Yisrael Beitenu, two right-wing parties who refused to join a Netanyahu-led coalition, would never work together with the radical leftist Meretz and Labor, to say nothing of the Arab Joint List and Ra’am. Both the charedi parties and the virulently anti-religious Yisrael Beitenu and Yesh Atid each vowed to boycott the others. Neither does it seem likely that Benny Gantz, who got an unexpected 7 seats, would have another go at sharing power with Netanyahu after the trauma the prime minister put him through.
Just as Israel finished the fourth elections in under two years, it seemed like it is on its way to its fifth. President Reuven Rivlin pleaded with party leaders to “listen to the Israeli people” and follow “the people’s demand for unconventional connections and cooperation across different sectors of society for the sake of the citizens of Israel”.
ALIGNING WITH THE ARABS?
Nothing would be more “unconventional” than the right-wing uniting with fervently religious Muslims. Yet that’s exactly what Prime Minister Netanyahu is attempting to do, hoping that Ra’am will pull him over the finish line by either joining his coalition outright or refraining from voting against the government when submitted to the Knesset.
The prime minister, whose campaign against “a coalition dependent on terror supporters” successfully prevented Gantz from establishing such a government just last year, now wants to do exactly that. Assisting him is Mansour Abbas’ unprecedented readiness to cooperate with the right, declaring that he is focused solely on improving the lives of everyday Arabs rather than fighting for Palestine.
In a dramatic prime-time speech Abbas delivered, the radical Islamist called for a new relationship with the State of Israel that would be characterized by full integration of the Arab community. The conciliatory nature of his address was dramatic; never mentioning Palestine even once, Abbas invoked the Koran to highlight the religious ties connecting both faiths.
“I, Mansour Abbas, a man of the Islamic Movement, am a proud Arab and Muslim, a citizen of the state of Israel, who heads the leading, biggest political movement in Arab society, courageously champion a vision of peace, mutual security, partnership and tolerance between the peoples,” he said. “I reach out a hand in my name and that of my colleagues and on behalf of the public that voted for me – to create an opportunity for coexistence in this holy land, blessed by three religions and of two peoples.”
Israel had never seen anything like Abbas’ speech before. Here was an Arab legislator, who, instead of hurling insults and accusing Israel of “apartheid” and “ethnic cleansing”, spoke of integration and partnership. And indeed, the unprecedented nature of his speech caused a deep debate to break out within the right-wing camp.
The parties most strongly in favor of partnering with Ra’am are the charedi Shas and UTJ parties. The aforementioned factions had surreptitiously cooperated for years on issues such as child allowances and battling police violence and are said to have a thriving relationship.
Making such a move easier is Abbas’ clear respect for traditional values. Unlike the Joint List, which includes the anti-religious Communist Hadash faction, Ra’am ran on a clear religious platform and originally split off due to the latter’s enthusiastic embrace of certain people’s rights.
And indeed, HaRav Chaim Kanievsky, shlita, gave such a move his explicit blessing, telling UTJ lawmakers that it was better to partner with a deeply religious Muslim such as Abbas “than the godless left who fight our holy tradition.”
But while many suddenly supported Netanyahu recruiting Abbas in order to supply the missing votes, others opined that the Islamist was simply telling Israelis what they wanted to hear. Unfortunately for Netanyahu, the latter camp included the Religious Zionist party, who reiterated time after time that it has no intention of joining any coalition nor participating in any arrangement that would include Ra’am. Despite escalating pressure from Netanyahu and his allies, which included recruiting Religious Zionist rabbis in an attempt to sway Smotrich, the firebrand lawmaker refused to budge.
“We will not be a partner in any government that leans actively or by the abstention of Ra’am or other terror supporters,” tweeted Religous Zionist leader Betzalel Smotrich moments after Abbas concluded his address.
“Abbas was and remains a supporter of terrorism who makes pilgrimages to embrace those who murdered Jews, does not accept the Jews’ right to exist as a people in their country in the Jewish state, and continues to adhere to the Palestinian narrative that simply contradicts the Jewish one,” Smotrich wrote a day later.
This presents a problem. On one hand, Netanyahu has only 59 seats with Religious Zionist and Naftali Bennett’s Yamina. Including Ra’am, though, would mean saying goodbye to the two aforementioned parties. Netanyahu is currently stuck; without Ra’am, his only hope for a government is coaxing defectors from left-wing parties or the rightist “Anybody But Bibi” New Hope and Yisrael Beitenu. Such a scenario, however, is highly unlikely after Netanyahu willfully flouted almost every coalition agreement he inked with Gantz only 11 months ago.
Things aren’t much easier for the left-wing bloc. While they number 61 seats, the right-wing New Hope and Yisrael Beitenu would never join with the progressive Meretz and anti-Zionist Joint List. An initial attempt by Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett to form such a government with the latter as prime minister crashed and burned. The proposed coalition would have included Yamina, Yesh Atid, Yisrael Beitenu, New Hope, Labor, and Meretz.
The ideological differences, however, appeared to be irreconcilable. The Yesh Atid leader demanded that such a coalition include at least one of the two Arab parties, a condition which Bennett ruled out as a nonstarter. Meanwhile, Bennett wanted a deciding extra vote in the governing cabinet as to not to be overruled by left-wing parties. This was considered unacceptable by Blue and White, Meretz, and Labor.
RUNNING OUT OF TIME
Last Wednesday, President Reuven Rivlin reluctantly gave Netanyahu the mandate to form a government. The premier, who is running from the Knesset directly to his trial on corruption allegations, now has 28 days to establish a coalition, after which Rivlin will task someone from the left-wing bloc.
With two weeks gone by since the results came in, Israel seems headed directly to a fifth election. No one has any clear path to forming a government.
The country has gone to the polls four times over the past two years yet seems no closer to ending the chaos, and the country is suffering as a result.
Israel hasn’t passed a budget since 2017, three years before the COVID-19 pandemic, and the results are catastrophic. The IDF is unable to purchase new weapons; the Foreign Ministry is unable to appoint new ambassadors; and embassies worldwide remain empty.
In addition, squabbling between Netanyahu and Gantz over nominees needing government approval has led a de facto freeze of new appointments. Currently, Israel does not have a full-time justice minister, police commissioner and firefighting chief. Senior officers in all of the aforementioned agencies are stuck in limbo, their promotions frozen and careers stalled.
As all parties attempt to make the proverbial lemonade out of lemons and avoid fifth elections, all eyes are fixed on November 2, 2021. That’s the date in which Benny Gantz will become prime minister if Israel still does not have a new government. The result of the original power-sharing deal with the Likud last April, the political gridlock may propel Gantz into becoming the most unlikely leader that Israel has ever had.
Should Israel go to another round of elections, Gantz may get his fondest wish, the one that first pushed him into politics in the first place: ending Netanyahu’s 13 straight years at the helm.
