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JANUARY 6, 2022 | The Jewish Home The Jewish Home | OCTOBER 29, 2015
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Political Crossfire
What Strange Things Does 2022 Have in Store for Us? By David Ignatius
W
hat a long, strange trip this year has been, to paraphrase the Grateful Dead. But as the late, lamented William Safire wrote in one of his year-end “Office Pool” quizzes, “If you correctly predicted everything that happened… you belong in jail.” As we head into 2022, place your bets for the New Year in a Safire-inspired multiple-choice quiz. Winning prize for any reader who gets all answers right will be a visit from a three-letter agency. My picks at the bottom. 1) North Korea’s Kim Jong Un will celebrate 2022 by: a) Demanding removal of Treasury sanctions on his April 26 Animation Studio so he can resume cartoon exports; b) Launching Jeff Bezos into space; c) Partnering with Donald Trump to develop “Mar-a-Lago East” on the Sea of Japan; d) Conducting his seventh nuclear explosion and testing an ICBM that can reach the continental United States. 2) Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman will shock the world by: a) Taking the throne after King Salman’s death and beginning what could be a half-century reign; b) Offering clemency and freeing the children of former counterterrorism officer Saad Aljabri he has been holding hostage; c) Meeting President Joe Biden and halting cooperation with China on ballistic missiles; d) Joining the Abraham Accords and opening a Saudi commercial office in Tel Aviv; e) Shaving off his beard. 3) The Ukraine crisis will enter a new phase in 2022 as: a) Russian cyberattacks disable the Ukrainian power grid and hundreds freeze because of shortages of gas and coal; b) Donetsk separatists backed by Russia
overrun Ukrainian front lines at Avdiivka and enraged rightwing nationalists kill pro-Russian MPs in Kyiv; c) Russia, after creating chaos in Ukraine, invades to “restore order”; d) Russian forces gradually retreat from Ukraine’s border as the West offers limited security guarantees. 4) The 42-year-old “Iran crisis” enters a decisive stage as: a) Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s death triggers a succession struggle between military and clergy; b) Prodded by Russia and China, Iran reaches an interim nuclear deal with the United States that reverses nuclear progress in exchange for sanctions relief; c) Israel launches a military strike against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure after the U.S. midterm elections; d) Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates invite Iran to meet with the Gulf Cooperation Council and open diplomatic relations. 5) The year’s most disruptive technology will be: a) Operational quantum computing that unlocks all current and historical encrypted data; b)
Reinvention of the World Wide Web as “Web 3,” using secure blockchain technology; c) Issuance of reliable cryptocurrencies by China, the European Union and other nations, also using blockchain; d) Undetectable “deep fake” techniques that affect financial markets and elections. 6) Space warfare becomes a redhot military topic in 2022 as: a) The U.S. Space Force disables a seemingly “hostile” foreign satellite based on what proves an inaccurate intelligence assessment; b) National Reconnaissance Office ground stations are hit by disabling cyberattacks leaving the United States “blind and deaf” in space for weeks; c) China demonstrates an antisatellite weapon capable of destroying satellites in geosynchronous orbits; d) The United States declassifies information about “exquisite” capabilities developed during the Cold War – causing Russia and China to revise security plans. 7) The most active Republican campaigner with the highest poll numbers during the 2022 midterm
campaign will be: a) former president Donald Trump; b) Sen. Ted Cruz; c) Sen. Josh Hawley; d) Rep. Liz Cheney; e) former secretary of state Mike Pompeo. 8) Topping the list of Democrats seeking the presidential nomination if Biden decides not to run will be: a) Vice President Harris; b) Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg; c) MSNBC host Joe Scarborough; d) Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez; e) Republican crossover and former representative Will Hurd. 9) The U.S. secretary of state in December 2022 will be: a) Secretary Antony Blinken; b) Deputy Secretary Wendy Sherman; c) Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo; d) CIA Director William Burns; e) Sen. Christopher Coons. 10) The “black swan” crisis of 2022 will be: a) Backlash against President Xi Jinping’s unprecedented third five-year term from senior party and military leaders; b) Global economic downturn caused by a new COVID variant that is as transmissible as omicron but more vaccine-resistant; c) a devastating ransomware attack against Taiwan’s chipmaking giant TMSC by Chinese “private” hackers; d) Russia’s candidate wins control of the International Telecommunication Union and imposes new rules that aid censorship and curtail freedom; e) Saudi Arabia begins selling oil in Chinese yuan, in addition to dollars. --Put down your wagers, folks. You can’t win if you don’t play, as Safire liked to say. My answers: 1) d; 2) d; 3) a, b, c; 4) b, d; 5) c; 6) c; 7) e; 8) Moot: Biden will run; 9) a; 10) e. (c) 2021, Washington Post Writers Group
