TORONTO CONDOS NOVEMBER 2016
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s e m o H n o s l i m E The Jim Toronto Pres r e y u B n o i t c u Constr Guide
THE TORONTO POPULATION FUNDAMENTALS FORECAST Toronto population. The GGH. How Toronto Compares globally.
What does the future population of Toronto look like?
IMMIGRATION TRENDS And much more inside...
EDUCATE YOURSELF im J m o r f e t o N A
The reason I have put together this guide is to address and provide a RealtorsÂŽ context to the Toronto condominium market. On the one-hand, some in the media say the sky is falling or will fall - that condo overbuilding is rampant and driven by greedy builders. (yes chicken little is well alive). On the other-hand, some promote pie in the sky promises that aren't supportable by real data. (also, not cool) I have made every effort to ensure that the statistics and data provided here-in are accurate and current. However, like most things, you should conduct your own due-diligence before embarking on any investment strategy. This magazine is provided as a helpful guide. It is not intended to solicit new clients who are under agency agreement. However, if you are not currently working with a RealtorÂŽ and would like to schedule a consultation with me, you are most welcome.
JIM EMILSON SALES REPRESENTATIVE ROYAL LEPAGE ESTATE REALTY, BROKERAGE 416-690-5100 CONDO BUYERS GUIDE
NOVEMBER 2016
TORONTO AND CANADA IN CONTEXT
EXAMINING THE GREATER GOLDEN HORSESHOE Canada's population is now over 35,000,000, with a land area just shy of 10,000,000 sq. km. That means that in Canada, there are approx. 3.5 people per square kilometre. We also have a lot of Moose. But that will be the subject of a different magazine. The Greater Golden Horseshoe, on the other hand, has an area of 31, 562 km (representing just .3% of Canada's total land mass.
CONDO BUYERS GUIDE
In 2011, the GGH had a population of 8.76 million, representing 26% of the Canadian population. Are you ready to learn something that will totally blow your mind? The GTA has 850 people/sq. km. New York City has 2050 people/sq. km And what about Toronto?
Toronto has 2650 people per square kilometre, making Toronto the highest density city in North America NOVEMBER 2016
LARGEST CITIES
IN NORTH AMERICA 1 MEXICO CITY 2 NYC
3 LOS ANGELES
4 TORONTO OH, BY THE WAY...NUMBER 23? VANCOUVER
o t g n i d Accor , w o r G o t s e c a Pl t ' v o G o i r a t n O the 4 . 2 , n a l P h t w Gro s r e m o c w e n n millio n i d e t c e p x e are y b A G the G The Ontario government forecasts 2036. more than 100 000 newcomers ,
moving into the GGH area every year for the next 20 years. Where will they live?
SINGLEFAMILY HOMES ARE SCARCE Here is data on home construction in the Greater Toronto area that helps us to see the shift from single-family homes to condominiums.
2004 Stats from Real Net 68% Low Rise Homes (which includes detached, semi-detached, townhome, and link homes. 32% High Rise Homes (which includes apartments, lofts, stacked)
CONDO BUYERS GUIDE
2014 Stats from Real Net 55% HIGH RISE homes (a jump of more than 20%) 45% Low Rise Homes “Between 20042014 the gap between low rise and high rise prices grew by 50%”
FEBRUARY 2016 WAS THE FIRST TIME IN TORONTO'S HISTORY THAT THE AVERAGE PRICE FOR A DETACHED HOME ECLIPSED 1.2 MILLION DOLLARS. IT WAS $1 MILLION AT THE SAME TIME LAST YEAR BUT THAT WAS NOT THE REAL NEWS STORY IN 2016 TORONTO REAL ESTATE. ON THE NEXT PAGE WE WILL LOOK AT 416 AREA YEAR OVER YEAR APPRECIATION CONDO VERSUS DETACHED
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CONDO VS DETACHED 2016 APPRECIATION FEBRUARY CONDO: 25.6 % FEBRUARY DETACHED: 11.8 % MARCH CONDO: 20.7 % MARCH DETACHED: 3.2 % APRIL CONDO: 17.5 % APRIL DETACHED: - 4 % MAY CONDO: 21.7 % MAY DETACHED: 8.9 % JUNE CONDO: 15 % JUNE DETACHED: 1.2 % JULY CONDO: 9.2 % JULY DETACHED: - 6.5 % AUGUST CONDO: 33.5 % AUGUST DETACHED: 14.8 % SEPTEMBER CONDO: 24.3 % SEPTEMBER DETACHED: 4.7 % CONDOS CONTINUE TO PERFORM ABOVE PREVIOUS YEARS SUGGESTING THAT THE MARKET IS ACCEPTING THE PRICE REALITY OF LOW RISE
Q2 2016 STATS 33% OF CONDOS SOLD 2 BEDROOM
16% 2 BEDROOM + DEN 7% 3 BEDROOM THESE NUMBERS DEMONSTRATE THE RISING DEMAND FOR LARGER CONDOMINIUMS, SUGGESTING THE MOVE FOR MORE AND MORE FAMILIES INTO CONDOMINIUMS (VERSUS DETACHED) DUE TO AFFORDABILITY AND LIFE-STYLE PREFERENCES.
ACCORDING TO THE CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
THE 100,000 NEWCOMERS REQUIRE 34,000 NEW HOUSEHOLDS PER YEAR That is in addition to the city's internal resale housing demands
THE BOTTOM LINE
CONDO LIVING IS A NEW REALITY IN THE GTA DOES THAT MEAN THAT ANY CONDO IS A GOOD INVESTMENT? ABSOLUTELY NOT. BUT IT SUGGESTS THAT THE LONG-TERM PROSPECTS LOOK FAVOURABLE IN THE TORONTO AREA.
LEARN MORE... concluding note
I hope that this information is helpful to you as you consider the merits of investing in Toronto condominiums. You need to weigh carefully any financial investment, and investing in real estate is no different. While this magazine has provided one Realtor'sÂŽ take on why the market remains strong, and how the long-term demographic trends suggest continued support for condo appreciation, you need to weigh your personal investment decisions carefully. If you'd like to learn more, or have any questions, don't hesitate to reach out to me at 416-690-5100. My youtube channel also provides education content, including information on investing in condominiums (including pitfalls to avoid). You can also view my VLOG at my website www.jimemilson.com Until we meet, thanks for taking the time to download and read my condo buyers guide - I genuinely hope that it is helpful!
JIM EMILSON SALES REPRESENTATIVE ROYAL LEPAGE ESTATE REALTY CONDO BUYERS GUIDE
NOVEMBER 2016