Iowa Soybean Review, November 2018

IOWA

SOYBEANreview

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November 2018

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President Lindsay Greiner, Keota | At Large President Elect Tim Bardole, Rippey | At Large Treasurer Robb Ewoldt, Blue Grass | D6

November 2018 | Vol. 31, No. 2

Secretary Dave Walton, Wilton | D6 Executive Committee Randy Miller, Lacona | D8 Board of Directors Brent Swart, Spencer | D1 Chuck White, Spencer | D1 April Hemmes, Hampton | D2 Casey Schlichting, Clear Lake | D2 Rick Juchems, Plainfield | D3 Suzanne Shirbroun, Farmersburg | D3 LaVerne Arndt, Sac City | D4 Jeff Frank, Auburn | D4 Rolland Schnell, Newton | D5 Morey Hill, Madrid | D5 Bill Shipley, Nodaway | D7 Jeff Jorgenson, Sidney | D7 Warren Bachman, Osceola | D8 Pat Swanson, Ottumwa | D9 Tom Adam, Harper | D9 Brent Renner, Klemme | At Large Stephanie Essick, Dickens | At Large American Soybean Association Board of Directors Morey Hill, Madrid Wayne Fredericks, Osage Brian Kemp, Sibley John Heisdorffer, Keota Dean Coleman, Humboldt United Soybean Board of Directors Delbert Christensen, Audubon Larry Marek, Riverside Tom Oswald, Cleghorn April Hemmes, Hampton Staff Credits Editor | Ann Clinton Communications Director | Aaron Putze, APR Senior Creative Manager | Ashton Boles Photographer | Joseph L. Murphy Staff Writer | Matthew Wilde Staff Writer | Carol Brown Staff Writer | Lauren Houska Staff Writer | Katie Johnson Sales Director | David Larson Iowa Soybean Review is published eight times a year by: Iowa Soybean Association 1255 SW Prairie Trail Parkway, Ankeny, Iowa 50023 (515) 251-8640 | iasoybeans.com E-mail: aclinton@iasoybeans.com For advertising information in the Iowa Soybean Review, please contact Larson Ent. LLC (515) 440-2810 or Dave@LarsonentLLC.com.

Comments and statewide news articles should be sent to the above address. Advertising space reservations must be made by the first day of the month preceding publication. In consideration of the acceptance of the advertisement, the agency and the advertiser must, in respect of the contents of the advertisement, indemnify and save the publisher harmless against any expense arising from claims or actions against the publisher because of the publication of the content of the advertisement.

12 Numbers Don't Add Up

Aid package reminder of trade's importance.

14 Seed Racer

U.S. soybean exports start fast, USSEC eyes strong finish.

16 U.S. Soybean Sales to China Tumble How low will they go?

20 Biodiesel Priorities Biodiesel priorities established during regional meeting.

On the Cover: Because of weather delays that included torrential rains and snow, many farmers were sidelined from soybean harvest for much of the months of September and October. As a more favorable weather pattern emerged, farmers like Rick Kimberley, Iowa Soybean Association member from Farrar, spent long hours that stretched into the night to finish the 2018 harvest.

NOVEMBER 2018 | IASOYBEANS.COM | 3

Kirk Leeds Chief Executive Officer, Iowa Soybean Association kleeds@iasoybeans.com, Twitter@kirkleeds

Giving Thanks

“

Often people ask how I manage to be happy

despite having no arms and no legs. The quick answer is that I have a choice. I can be angry about not having limbs, or I can be thankful that I have a purpose. I chose gratitude .

N

ick Vujicic is an Australian Christian evangelist and motivational speaker born with a rare disorder characterized by the absence of arms and legs. He is one of the seven known individuals in the world who live with the syndrome.

Nick is also an internationally renowned motivational speaker who travels the world sharing his message of hope and gratitude.

I read Nick’s quote recently in an article about people who have overcome incredible challenges and obstacles. Some, like Nick, had to physical limitations.

Others have dealt with chronic diseases, death of loved ones or a relationship that turned abusive or toxic. As I was reading their stories, I immediately thought of Kim, my bride of 38 years.

Earlier this year, Kim was diagnosed with colorectal cancer two days before we were scheduled to travel to Ireland.

Our trip was a long-anticipated

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”

- NICK VUJICIC

vacation with our four adult children and our daughter-in-law.

I will never forget the sinking feeling that came over me when the doctor came in and first used the word “cancer.”

Like many of you, I have experienced cancer in my family before, including losing a brother to cancer at the age of 50. But this was different and even more personal.

This was my wife, my soul mate, the mother of our children and my best friend since I was 15 years old.

This couldn’t be happening. It felt like a bad dream.

We went ahead and took that trip to Ireland and had an incredible time. Spending 14 days as a family, eating every meal together, seeing the beautiful countryside and celebrating my wife’s birthday in Ireland created memories none of us will ever forget. But the trip was the also the beginning of my journey of being a supportive caregiver for the most important person in my life.

There is no better way to say it – cancer sucks. As I write this column, Kim has completed eight chemo treatments over the last four months. Radiation, more chemo and eventually surgery are still to come. She has been a warrior and unlike too many people impacted by cancer, the doctors are optimistic and confident she will ultimately win this battle.

Even though I can’t find it within me to thank God for my wife’s cancer and what she is going through, I do give thanks that through this experience my wife has taught me so much about being thankful even in the toughest days. Her courage, deep faith and determination to always see how “lucky” and blessed she has been, is truly amazing and inspiring. She has reminded me we have been called to be thankful for all things.

This Thanksgiving will be a special one for the Leeds family as we celebrate my wife’s ongoing victory over cancer. Whatever challenges you and your family are facing, I do hope you take the time to give thanks and be grateful for all the blessings in your life.

From all of us at the Iowa Soybean Association, best wishes for a Happy Thanksgiving!

Full-Circle Return

HERE’S HOW THE SOY CHECKOFF WORKS. The national soy checkoff was created as part of the 1990 Farm Bill. The Act & Order that created the soy checkoff requires that all soybean farmers pay into the soy checkoff at the first point of purchase. These funds are then used for promotion, research and education at both the state and national level.

TO ELEVATORS, PROCES S N A SOR L BE S& L E S DEA S R E LER RM S A F 1/2 of 1% of the total selling price collected per the national soybean act & order

0.5%

Half goes to the state checkoff for investment in areas that are a priority for that state.

PROMOTION

RESEARCH

EDUCATION

ROI TO THE FA RMER by 73 volunteer soybean farmers, the United Soybean Board * Led (USB) invests and leverages soy checkoff dollars to MAXIMIZE PROFIT OPPORTUNITIES for all U.S. soybean farmers.

unitedsoybean.org

Half goes to the national checkoff for investment in USB’s* long-range strategic plan.

Michael Dolch Director of Public Affairs, Iowa Soybean Association MDolch@iasoybeans.com

Work Worth Doing

D

uring my first week as the newest addition to the Iowa Soybean Association (ISA) staff, I was handed a copy of “Seeds of Hope,” the tribute reflecting on ISA’s first 50 years.

Published in 2012, it honors the legacy of the early founders and celebrates the soybean industry’s progress.

Cracking the commemorative book open for the first time, I turned to a quote from Theodore Roosevelt.

“Far and away the best prize that life has to offer is the chance to work hard at work worth doing.”

Roosevelt’s assertion over 100 years ago really hit home. Work worth doing isn’t always easy and obvious, especially in today’s world. Many people struggle to find work that is fulfilling, rich and rewarding. Far too many stand flat-footed in the dull and repetitive instead of seeking challenge and adding value.

Growing up on a small farm north of Villisca where my family raised corn, soybeans and cattle, I learned to appreciate the honesty of a handshake and the reward of hard work. Holding

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that appreciation close, I traveled from the farm to our nation’s capital, where I spent the better part of four years advocating for farmers with Syngenta, and most recently, for Iowans in the office of U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst. Neither job was particularly glamorous, but both offered work worth doing.

As I continued turning the pages of Seeds for Hope, another realization surfaced. Today, we are saddled with many of the same challenges and opportunities that the group of farmers who organized ISA during the early 1960s faced — a time when export markets, research, and free trade were critically important. The ‘60s — considered the Decade of Change — gave way to a profound shift in political and cultural trends around the globe. The same parallels can be drawn now. We are a country of ideas and opinions — a country seemingly divided as a result. Rallying together, finding common ground and voicing unified support is increasingly rare, but work worth doing.

Politics isn’t a spectator sport. I sit here typing this column chomping at the bit to engage farmers and elected

officials across all nine districts to learn the history and shape the future.

Together, one step at a time, we can chart a path of continued success and deliver sound public policy that will make soybeans even bigger. Now that is work worth doing.

For me, an understanding of how we arrived at where we are today is just as important as a knowledge of the underlying policy and politics at play. I have a deep respect for Iowa agriculture and ISA’s history — a respect that will ride shotgun wherever I go.

Over the last 30 years, my folks were always quick to remind that life is a sum of the choices you make.

This has never rung truer for me. I could not be more excited about the opportunity to join ISA’s staff as the new Director of Public Affairs. After one week going to work at the grain bin, I can already tell that working on behalf of Iowa’s soybean farmers is work worth doing.

From all of us here at ISA, we wish you a safe and bountiful harvest.

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Iowa Soybean Farmers Welcome Passage of Water Resources Development Act

T

he Iowa Soybean Association (ISA) welcomed President Trump’s signage of the Water Resources Development Act (WRDA). The House of Representatives passed the legislation unanimously Sept. 13 and the Senate passed the act by a vote of 99-1 Oct. 10.

An effective inland waterway system remains critical for transporting Iowa soybeans.

“The competitive advantage for Midwestern farmers over the last several decades has been our infrastructure, roads, and inland waterways,” says ISA President and Keota area farmer, Lindsay Greiner.

“Over the years, we’ve let some of our locks and dams be neglected and there hasn’t been substantial investment.”

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WRDA provides a strategy for improving America’s inland waterway system and secures funding to address this critical link in the farm-to-table chain. Transportation for exports and delivery of Iowa’s soybeans remains a top priority for ISA farmer-members and the Soy Transportation Coalition (STC).

“Our nation’s locks and dams have long been advocated for,” says Mike Steenhoek, STC director. “The inland waterway system continues to be undercapitalized.”

As the soybean industry in Iowa and the United States faces sobering challenges, Steenhoek says. Efficient transportation proves even more critical in facilitating profitability for soybean farmers.

Steenhoek reminds stakeholders that a failure at one or more lock and dam sites is not outside the realm of possibility.

“WRDA has been passed every two years since 2014,” says Steenhoek.

“Before then, the most recent WRDA bill was in 2007. The more time that elapses between passage, the more difficult it becomes for Congress to devote the necessary resources to address the needs of our inland waterway system.”

In addition to the bill’s timely passage, Congress has allocated nearly $7 billion for 2019 — a record amount.

“WRDA is welcomed news for Iowa farmers. It gives us an advantage in competing with other countries,” Greiner adds.

Hemmes Reappointed as United Soybean Board Director

H

ampton, Iowa, farmer and Iowa Soybean Association (ISA) District 2 director, April Hemmes, has been reappointed to a three-year term on the United Soybean Board (USB).

Seventy-three farmer-directors from across the country serve soybean farmers as USB directors.

They direct soybean checkoff funds to research, marketing and promotional efforts that maximize profit opportunities for all U.S. soybean farmers. USB directors aim to develop new and existing markets

your

for U.S. soy, specifically in the areas of meal, oil and sustainability.

“I’m very honored and privileged to represent Iowa for another three years,” says Hemmes. “I look forward to opening new markets and finding new uses for soybeans both domestically and abroad.”

She was appointed by U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue and will be sworn in at the annual USB meeting in St. Louis in December.

Hemmes was first elected to the ISA board of directors in 2015 has

been farming for more than 30 years, managing a corn, soybean and hay operation in Franklin County.

APRIL HEMMES

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soybean processor

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READY? ACTION! From the combine to the camera, ISA Communications Squad prepares farmers for media

BY KATIE JOHNSON

I

owa soybean farmers have a new team of heroes to watch on-screen, listen to on-air and read about in the paper. It’s not the Avengers or the Justice League, it’s the Iowa Soybean Association’s (ISA) Communications Squad. The typical comic book hero could learn a few things from these media-savvy farmers.

Wrapping up its inaugural year, 14 farmers served as Communications Squad members, attending four training sessions throughout the summer and getting up-close and personal with industry leaders and media professionals. For many, the thought of inviting reporters to get to know you and your work might sound intimidating, but as most Squad members would tell you — this isn’t their first rodeo.

The ISA has facilitated more than

300 local, national and international media requests since April. While the media's locations and platforms vary greatly, one thing remains the same — they want to get to know farmers.

As the disconnect from the farm continues to grow, it is becoming more and more imperative for farmers to elevate their voices on national platforms. There’s no better way to do that than through a phone-interview, on farm camera crews, or for some farmers, a live video interview on national broadcast television.

If the prospect of putting yourself out there for the world to see gives you any sort of anxiety, that's understandable. Research finds most Americans fear public speaking about as much as death. However, practicing by doing is the best way to get better.

ISA is currently recruiting another team of agriculture’s finest heroes to serve as Communications Squad participants in 2018-19. Participants will receive: • Real-time social media engagement training • Public speaking practice • Experience interviews with real reporters • Practice handling tough questions on controversial topics Communications Squad members know that agriculture needs communicators. If the 2019 Communications Squad interests you, contact ISA public relations manager Katie Johnson at 515-334-1058 or kjohnson@iasoybeans.com.

And always remember — you are your farm’s best spokesperson!

Sponsors: THE COMMUNICATIONS SQUAD IS MADE POSSIBLE THROUGH GENEROUS CONTRIBUTIONS FROM HERTZ FARM MANAGEMENT, LANDUS COOPERATIVE, CORTEVA AND IOWA SELECT FARMS.

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ISA Public Relations Manager, Katie Johnson, welcomes the Communications Squad to their final training session this past September. Squad members got plenty of time in front of the room with public speaking and interview drills.

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NOVEMBER 2018 | IASOYBEANS.COM | 11

INVESTING CHECKOFF DOLLARS

THE NUMBERS DON’T ADD UP Aid package serves as reminder of trade importance

BY KATIE JOHNSON

F

armers affected by low market prices have a little help pulling their bootstraps up this year.

LaVerne Arndt was born and raised on his family's farm near Sac City in northwest Iowa. He now farms with his son and has added a few tracts of land throughout the years.

Arndt is busy with harvest season, but this year comes with additional concerns as he climbs into his combine. It’s not the heavy rains that kept him away from the fields much of October. It’s the burden of numbers.

As farmers know, a passion for farming doesn't pay the bills. With a summer full of trade concerns and momentous tension from Chinese tariffs, it’s all about the numbers as farmers reap their harvest: bushels per acre, number of acres harvested, moisture levels, quality

12 | NOVEMBER 2018 | IASOYBEANS.COM

of soybeans, Chicago Board of Trade very real. The price of soybeans has prices, etc. dropped nearly $2 since April. Arndt The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s has not yet submitted his application, as (USDA) Market Facilitation Program farmers were instructed by Farm Service (MFP) was created Agency (FSA) officials to assist farmers to wait until they had caught in the overall production crossfire of current numbers after harvest. trade disputes. The His average so far of number farmers have 52-bushel soybeans on been talking about 1,800 acres, where he is the $12 billion also grows corn, gives assistance fund, him a rough estimate of LAVERNE ARNDT which opened Sept. what his payment will 4 and will close on be. But as most farmers Jan. 15. Commodities heavily targeted will say, the payment is not enough to in trade disputes will see the biggest aid make up for the losses. dispursement, namely soybeans.

Arndt's 28 years serving as an FSA “It’s not gonna help as much as the employee makes him question the tariffs have hurt.” Arndt says. staggered rollout of the USDA For soybean farmers, the target feels aid package.

INVESTING CHECKOFF DOLLARS

“Why didn’t they give us all of it at once? My guess is they were nervous the $12 billion wouldn’t go as far as they thought.”

But even if prices go back up in the near future, many farmers will have already sold their crop.

Arndt farms 1,300 acres with his son and manages 500 acres himself. He’s been farming for more than 35 years, and he knows the mere joy of farming doesn’t pay the bills. “When we go to the banks with these numbers … I think we’re gonna have some real sad people,” he says.

The aid package serves as a reminder of how important exports are to agriculture and the nation. They contribute to increased market prices that make it a win-win for farmers and America’s trading partners.

“Agriculture is a global affair, and the world’s appetite depends on U.S. farmers,” Arndt says.

The U.S. exported $27 billion worth of soybeans last year. China accounted for $14 billion. With ongoing trade concerns elsewhere, the future of agricultural exports is uncertain.

The Sac County farmer knows he has a good product that needs to be traded at a fair price. Still, he hopes for a quick resolution as good market prices make it possible to do what he loves – farming.

“One thing is for sure though, the world’s appetite doesn’t slow down during tariff disputes,” Arndt says. “The demand for highquality soybeans is still there, and American farmers still produce impressive yields.”

Money Talks • FARM INCOME DOWN BY 50 PERCENT SINCE 2013 • EXPORTS TO CHINA VALUED AT $14 BILLION IN 2017 • $12 BILLION IN AID TO FARMERS TO OFFSET LOSS OF TRADE VALUE

Contact Katie Johnson at kjohnson@iasoybeans.com.

NOVEMBER 2018 | IASOYBEANS.COM | 13

INVESTING CHECKOFF DOLLARS

SEED RACER U.S. soybean exports start fast, USSEC eyes strong finish

BY MATTHEW WILDE

xports of U.S. soybeans shot out of E the gate for the 2018-19 marketing year, charging ahead of last year’s pace.

Nearly 460 million bushels of soybeans were booked by foreign customers for the new marketing year by Aug. 16, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) records. That’s 25 percent more than the same time last year.

“It’s good news because hardly anything is from China,” says Jim Sutter, U.S. Soybean Export Council (USSEC) CEO. “There’s more sales to other destinations.”

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The blistering start slowed substantially, which Sutter and other experts expected given China’s reluctance to purchase U.S. soybeans due to the ongoing trade war between the two countries. Historically, China is a big buyer from September through March.

On Sept. 20, outstanding U.S. soybean sales and exports totaled about 691 million bushels. Down nearly 16 percent compared to the previous year.

Sutter says it’s not how you start the race but how you finish.

“This marketing year (which

started Sept. 1) is going to be like the tortoise and the hare,” he continues.

“We started off fast and sales slowed.

But I think we will be all right in the end.”

There’s no way to replace a billionplus-bushel market like China, Sutter and economists say. But USSEC and soybean producing states are working to cushion the blow and increase market share in other countries.

USSEC recently initiated the “What it Takes” strategy. The internal program targets non-China markets to grow demand to roughly replace China’s missing sales.

INVESTING CHECKOFF DOLLARS

THIS MARKETING YEAR IS GOING TO BE LIKE THE TORTOISE AND THE HARE.

As part of the initiative, USSEC moved up and enhanced a soybean buyers’ conference in Barcelona, Spain.

The event will be held Nov. 29-30 instead of early next year.

Sutter asked several state soybean associations in September to help pay for the conference. The money will help bring in more of the top buyers from Europe, the Middle East and North Africa to grow demand in markets the U.S. has not traditionally been the main supplier.

USSEC will tout the ample supply of affordable, sustainably produced soybeans and reliable delivery compared to competitors.

The Iowa Soybean Association (ISA) chipped in $50,000 for the event.

“Given the increasing likelihood the trade war with China won’t be resolved soon and historic soybean supplies, it’s critically important to move quickly to spur sales,” says Kirk Leeds, ISA CEO. A record U.S. soybean harvest is projected at nearly 4.7 billion bushels, according to the October USDA Crop Production Report. The government predicts 2018-19 ending stocks at 885 million bushels, also an all-time high.

U.S. soybean prices have tumbled about $2 per bushel since the trade spat began with China.

“We have plenty of soybeans to sell at a discounted price,” Leeds adds.

“Hopefully, the old adage that low prices cure low prices still rings true.”

Brazil is almost out of soybeans until early next year due to huge Chinese demand. Based on early USDA export figures, it appears bargain shoppers are turning to the U.S.

The following are U.S. soybean outstanding export sales and accumulated exports as of Sept. 20 for the 2018-19 marketing year to several countries compared to the same time last year: • European Union (EU) — 31.6 million bushels vs. 10.8 million bushels • Indonesia — 23.8 million bushels vs.

17.2 million bushels • Pakistan — 29 million bushels vs.

18.9 million bushels • Egypt — 16.6 million bushels vs. 3.4 million bushels • Mexico — 83.2 million bushels vs.

46 million bushels USSEC officials say Egypt is a shining example of increased U.S. soy market share. The country has almost tripled purchases the past two years as supply and demand, quality and economics work in the U.S.’ favor.

Cairo Poultry Group, Egypt’s largest integrated poultry company, almost exclusively buys U.S. soybeans to crush for feed. The conglomerate feeds 15,000 metric tons of soybean meal (696,000 bushels) per month.

“We expect to grow (company purchases) next year, hopefully by 50 percent,” says Mohamed Adam, procurement manager. “U.S. soybeans have an advantage.”

Taiwan signed a letter of intent in Iowa on Oct. 1 to buy between 118

million to 144 million bushels of U.S. soybeans — an increase of 22 million to 37 million bushels — this marketing year. As a result, U.S. market share will increase in the country from about 50 to 90 percent.

Emily French, founder and managing director of Chicago-based ConsiliAgra, says global economies are relatively strong, more people are moving into the middle class and crush capacity is expanding. All should help U.S. soy exports.

“More trains filled with soy are heading to Mexico and EU demand coming back to the Gulf (of Mexico) as China consumes Brazil’s beans is good, but you don’t just replace China,” says French, a commodities broker. “That’s reality.”

Morey Hill, an ISA and American Soybean Association (ASA) board member from Madrid, was in Tunisia in April talking to North Africa buyers on behalf of ASA. Feedback was positive pertaining to increased sales, he says.

Hill believes Chinese losses will be mitigated and the U.S. can top 2 billion bushels in exports as projected by USDA. “For every challenge on one side of the world there’s opportunity on the other,” he says.

Contact Matthew Wilde at mwilde@iasoybeans.com.

Morey Hill, Iowa Soybean Association District 5 director, believes advocacy work by farmers and the industry to increase soybean exports worldwide can mitigate sales reductions to China.

NOVEMBER 2018 | IASOYBEANS.COM | 15

INVESTING CHECKOFF DOLLARS

U.S. SOYBEAN SALES TO CHINA

TUMBLE How low will they go?

BY MATTHEW WILDE

E

xports of U.S. soybeans to China will plummet this year and beyond if the trade war lingers between the two nations.

Oilseed experts from both countries agree on that point.

How much less is anyone’s guess.

China placed a 25 percent tariff on JIM SUTTER U.S. soybeans July 6, which adds about $85 per metric ton (about 37 bushels) to the cost. The move essentially ended sales to the country.

The conflict has gradually escalated since the beginning of the year with no end in sight.

“We have to be prepared that when we get into November, December and January — when China typically would be buying a lot of our beans — exports will be missing,” says Jim Sutter, U.S. Soybean Export Council (USSEC) CEO. The U.S. sold a little more than

16 | NOVEMBER 2018 | IASOYBEANS.COM

1 billion bushels of soybeans to China the previous marketing year, which ended Aug. 31, according to U.S Department of Agriculture data. In 2016-17, shipments totaled more than 1.4 billion bushels.

After the tariff went into effect, oilseed analyst John Baize of Falls Church, Virginia, projected China would purchase 550 million to 730 million bushels of U.S. soybeans this marketing year. He reduced the forecast in September to 294 million to 394 million bushels.

“It's now clear China is willing to suffer to make a point,” Baize says. “They may not want to import U.S. soybeans, but that doesn’t mean they don’t need them. If they don’t buy, there will be a lot of hungry pigs and chickens.”

China currently utilizes about 250 million to 300 million bushels of soybeans per month, Baize says.

His latest estimate considers China’s needs, soybeans available in the country (including an estimated nearly 300-million-bushel reserve) and Brazil’s stocks and the time before its new crop is available.

USSEC officials who work with buyers in China believe 220 million bushels might be it for U.S. soy imports. Reuters reported two Chinese buyers had far different predictions — one at less than 26 million bushels and the other at almost 478 million bushels.

INVESTING CHECKOFF DOLLARS

China’s plan If the trade dispute drags on for years, a representative of one of China’s largest crushers says the country has a plan to eliminate U.S. soy imports. His company is no exception.

“I don’t think we will buy any from the U.S. as long as the BRIAN KEMP trade war is still going on,” says Mu Yan Kui, vice chairman of the Yihai Kerry group, through an interpreter in an exclusive interview with the Iowa Soybean Review. “If we keep buying from the U.S., we may have political risks and be attacked by consumers.”

A transition away from U.S. beans won’t happen immediately, Kui adds.

The nation may buy up to 2 million metric tons (74 million bushels) this year, he projects.

The U.S. has placed tariffs on more than $250 million worth of Chinese imports to punish the country for stealing intellectual property, narrow a $375 billion dollar trade deficit and to end unfair trade practices. China retaliated with duties on mostly U.S ag products.

During a panel discussion at the U.S. Soy Global Trade Exchange & Midwest Specialty Grains Conference & Trade Show in Kansas City, Kui rattled off a list of things China can do to wean itself off U.S. soybeans if the trade dispute persists: • Reduce soybean meal in livestock rations and increase corn.

• Buy more alternative protein sources for livestock like palm meal,

rapeseed, cottonseed, sunflower and canola.

• Import more soybeans from Brazil, Argentina and other countries.

• Increase use of synthetic lysine in livestock feed rations.

• Incentivize Chinese farmers to increase soybean production.

• Invest in countries like Brazil, Ukraine and Kazakhstan to increase soybean production and shipping capabilities.

“All of these will effectively substitute (U.S.) soybean losses,” Kui claims.

“We can achieve this goal.”

The future Wallace Tyner, a Purdue University economist, says it’s imperative the trade war ends soon for U.S. producers.

He spearheaded a study, funded by USSEC, which projected the soybean tariff would slash U.S. exports to China by 65 percent and overall by 37 percent — if it remains for 3-4 years.

“If tariffs go away (soon) … the damage would be fairly limited,” Tyner says. “If the tariff stays in effect for three years or so, Brazil has the potential to expand soybeans production by 9 million acres or so.

Once that’s converted to soybeans it would be hard to get back. That’s the real danger.”

The Iowa Soybean Association (ISA) continues to maintain strong relationships with Chinese customers to be prepared when the

trade war ends.

Brian Kemp of Sibley, a former ISA president and current American Soybean Association and USSEC board member, worked the conference’s Trade Team Invitational. At the event, soybean exporters have 30 minutes to pitch their company and products to importers. He was assigned to a team of Chinese soy buyers for the food sector who met with numerous sellers.

“Someday the tariff situation will end,” Kemp says. “We want to make sure the relationships are in place to market our beans to the Chinese.”

Contact Matthew Wilde at mwilde@iasoybeans.com.

“

IT'S CLEAR CHINA IS WILLING TO SUFFER TO MAKE A POINT.

”

— John Baize, Analyst, John Baize & Associates

NOVEMBER 2018 | IASOYBEANS.COM | 17

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SOYBEAN PRICES WITHER AS U.S.-CHINA TRADE WAR

HEATS UP A slow recovery ahead

BY MATTHEW WILDE

S

oybean prices may have bottomed out.

“It certainly feels like it,” says Emily French, a commodities analyst and broker.

November soybeans on the Chicago Board of Trade dropped to $8.14 per bushel on Sept. 18. A price not seen since the end of 2008.

Despite the heated trade war with China and another record U.S. soybean harvest contributing to all-time high inventories, French believes the price

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floor was set and the slow road to a partial recovery continues.

“The world is heavily reliant on soybeans,” says French, founder and managing director of Chicago-based ConsiliAgra. “I don’t think the market is willing or interested in being short when prices are at 10-year lows.”

French provided a world soy and grain supply and demand outlook presentation at the U.S. Soy Global Trade Exchange & Midwest Specialty Grains Conference & Tradeshow in

Kansas City, Missouri. The event — ­ geared to boost U.S. soybean sales worldwide ­— was held in late August.

Soybean prices have plunged more than $2 per bushel since the end of February as the trade skirmish with China developed into a full-blown war.

China placed a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans and other products July 6, which essentially halted sales to the country. It’s one of many duties the two countries placed on each other's products worth billions of dollars.

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French doesn’t expect soybean prices to fully recover since China continues to shun U.S. imports. However, she says there are enough demand bright spots — especially soybean meal — to regain half the ground. According to French: • Global demand for soybeans remains strong at about 1 million metric tons (nearly 37 million bushels) per day.

• World soybean production is estimated at a little more than 369 million metric tons (more than 13.5 billion bushels), according to the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report.

• U.S. soybean meal exports are up 20 percent. Argentina’s drought limited supplies and its crush.

• Crush margins are expected to remain strong well into 2019.

• Brazil is almost out of soybeans and global crush capacity is expanding.

• In late August, new-crop U.S. soybean exports were up nearly 25 percent compared to a year ago at more than 454 million bushels. A slowdown is expected.

“If soybean meal doesn’t break, and I don’t think it will, soybeans won’t break,” French says. “It’s all about who has crush capacity and beans that’s the United States.

“Absolutely, the market can put a dollar back in,” she continues. “If beans get back to $9.20, I would certainly sell some — take the wins when you can. We’ll need a production problem in Brazil to get back over $10 with the China trade issue.”

The nation’s soybean crop is pegged at nearly 4.7 billion bushels, according to the latest government projections. Iowa’s crop is forecast at a record 606 million bushels.

With less Chinese demand, U.S. ending stocks are projected at 885 million bushels for the 2018-19 marketing year.

It’s a big number, French admits. But she doesn’t believe soybean buyers want prices to go lower, which would likely force U.S. farmers to plant fewer acres.

Sub-$9 soybeans are unprofitable for most U.S. producers.

Soybeans are considered one of the best, most economical protein sources

Brock Hansen, an Iowa Soybean Association member from Baxter, makes a small repair to his bean head earlier this month while harvesting soybeans. Farmers have been plagued with difficult weather conditions and deteriorating soybean quality on top of low soybean prices while they make difficult decisions for their farming operations.

for livestock and humans.

“There’s no substitute in the world for soybeans,” French says. “It’s super susceptible for a supply shock. The world is happy that the U.S. is storing soybeans … and willing to pay a price for it.”

The USDA projects the 2018-19 season-average farm price for soybeans at $8.60 per bushel. The range is $7.35 to $9.85 per bushel.

Morey Hill, an Iowa Soybean Association District 5 director from Madrid, says he and fellow producers will likely wait as long as possible before making next year’s planting decisions to see if the trade war with China ends. If the conflict isn’t resolved by the end of the year, that will likely shift acres away from soybeans.

Corn, wheat, cotton and peanuts will likely gain acres nationwide.

“Nobody knows what China will do,” says Hill, who also serves on the American Soybean Association board.

“The world appetite for soy is strong, and we have opportunities to sell to other places. We have to take advantage of this situation.”

Economist Chad Hart urges farmers to watch their costs and be patient as they face a difficult market for soybeans and corn. The Iowa State University associate professor says producers may have to re-examine their approach to marketing and storage.

“This marketing year, like many of the previous years, will challenge producers’ patience and financial standing,” Hart says in a statement. “It will take some time for prices to recover, and we may not yet have seen the low.

“But time is still on our side if we can position ourselves to ride out the coming months,” he adds. “Seasonal patterns and the current futures prices both suggest better prices will be available in the spring.”

In the meantime, Hart says farmers need to utilize marketing strategies to take advantage of price rallies.

Contact Matthew Wilde at mwilde@ iasoybeans.com.

IOWA'S CROP IS FORECAST AT A RECORD 606 MILLION BUSHELS.

NOVEMBER 2018 | IASOYBEANS.COM | 19

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BIODIESEL

priorities

Biodiesel focuses on key strategies during regional meeting

BY JOSEPH L. MURPHY

B

iodiesel may sometimes feel overshadowed when it comes to the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), but leaders continue to remind policymakers that the RFS is more than just ethanol.

Leaders want administrators and legislators to know that the 400-milliongallons-a-year GRANT biodiesel industry in KIMBERLEY Iowa is more than a drop in the bucket.

The industry has created about 4,000 jobs in the state and has added 63 cents a bushel to the price of soybeans nationwide. A big part of that success has been linked to the RFS. Grant Kimberley, executive director of the Iowa Biodiesel Board and director

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of market development for the Iowa Soybean Association (ISA), says that the biodiesel industry in Iowa is operating at 75 percent capacity and is looking for ways to move toward full capacity.

To do that, Kimberley and other leaders say they need a consistent policy from the state and federal level that takes the interests of biodiesel into account.

"When ethanol starts taking its arrows, biodiesel often gets caught in the crossfire," Kimberley says. "But we are in this together. We need to talk about the fact that the RFS is more than just ethanol, and biodiesel provides many benefits."

The RFS and the future success of the biodiesel industry were topics discussed during a joint meeting of the National Biodiesel Board (NBB) and IBB in September in West Des Moines.

Leaders also outlined state and national legislative priorities and IBB held board elections.

About 100 refiners, suppliers, industry representatives and growers attended the two-day conference.

“We don’t want a handout — we want a hand up,” Tom Brooks, a biodiesel producer and chair of the IBB told the group.

At points in recent months that hand up has been hard to find. Especially when the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the administration haven’t given many assurances on RFS volumes, extension of tax credits and

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whether the granting of small refinery RFS waivers will continue.

"These small refiner waivers have hurt the RFS program overall and have hurt biodiesel as well," Kimberley says. “In fact, the waivers happen to be almost exactly equal Iowa’s entire biodiesel production volumes from last year.”

For Kimberley, the year-round waiver for E15 is an example of biodiesel being overlooked. He says the waiver would help the ethanol industry, but it doesn't do anything for biodiesel.

"We need to make sure that we get increased volumes for the biomassbased diesel category of the RFS," he saiys. "Our volumes need to be raised to offset what we have lost in the small refiner waivers.”

The EPA has proposed biodiesel volumes of 2.43 billion gallons for 2020. Representatives from the biodiesel industry have petitioned for 2.8 billion gallons. Rehagen and others contend the bump in gallons would offset the small refinery exemptions, which retroactively reduced the 2016 and 2017 Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) by more than 2.25 billion Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs). The exemptions have also reduced demand for biodiesel by 300 million gallons according to NBB numbers.

Aside from the discussion about the RFS, leaders updated the attendees on trade and tax issues. Since 2005 the blenders tax credit has been a stalwart part and foundation of the biodiesel industry and leaders hope it will continue to provide stability and growth opportunities.

To do that leaders say the credits need to be in effect to work.

"We feel like there is an opportunity to have a conversation where maybe we couldn't have before about a longterm biodiesel tax credit," says Donnell Rehagen, NBB CEO, about the current climate in Washington, D.C. He believes a pivot from a producers' tax credit to a focus on a blenders' tax credit will help develop alliances and will help impact legislation to extend tax credits.

"We've been able to show some joint support in Congress for a longterm blenders' tax credit," he says.

"So we will be working hard from now until the end of the year to see if we can deliver it with this Congress in an election year."

At the state level Doug Struyk, state government affairs for the Iowa Biodiesel Board hopes the stability of state tax credit, the renewable infrastructure program and the fuel tax differential will add stability for the industry in Iowa.

Tom Brooks, Western Dubuque Biodiesel general manager, was re-elected as vice chair of the Iowa Biodiesel Board during their recent board meeting.

“

WE DON'T WANT A HANDOUT – WE WANT A HAND UP.

”

— Tom Brooks, Western Dubuque Biodiesel general manager

"If that is something that is part of the bedrock, it makes it easier for the industry to go to D.C. and try to get additional benefits," he says. "We've seen our local biodiesel plants make investments almost exclusively upon the increased certainty in Iowa."

He pointed to the production tax credit and promotion tax credits as providing stability for biodiesel in the state. As legislators look to cut money during a tight budget year, Struyk knows the industry will have to play defense and educate legislators on the importance of the credits when it comes to jobs and economic growth.

"We have a lot of support, but it depends on revenues and how they come into the state," he says. "We need to have members who are engaged and letting local legislators know that Iowans care about this and that people in their districts care about this."

During the two-day meeting, the IBB also elected Dave Walton, secretary of the ISA board of directors from Wilton, Iowa, to the board. He replaces Ron Heck as the ISA representative.

The full slate of officers for the organization is: Chair: Tom Brooks, Western Dubuque Biodiesel (re-elected); vice chair: Brad Wilson, Western Iowa Energy (reelected); Treasurer: Reed Herzig, Monsanto (newly elected; and Secretary: Doug Lenhart, REG Contact Joseph L. Murphy at jmurphy@iasoybeans.com.

NOVEMBER 2018 | IASOYBEANS.COM | 21

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SOYBEAN GALL MIDGE: Research focuses on economic pest and how to combat it

BY SCOTT NELSON, ON-FARM NETWORK® DIRECTOR

T

he gall midge has become an economic pest of soybeans in Iowa and beyond. It was found in soybeans in the western third of Iowa, eastern Nebraska and eastern South Dakota. Farmers were encouraged to look for symptoms but no pests were reported in central or eastern Iowa.

The gall midge is a small fly, about 1/16th of an inch in size. It is characterized by hairy wings, long legs and a long ovipositor. There are many species of midges, and the soybean gall midge adult is difficult to identify even by expert entomologists.

Currently, not much is known about the insect, but scientists are actively researching and reporting what they’ve learned so far.

The first recognition of the pest was in eastern Nebraska in 2011. In 2015, it was found in northwest Iowa, eastern South Dakota and eastern Nebraska.

Gall midge populations increased in 2016 to the point of significant soybean yield reductions. The pest grew in intensity in 2017 and became widespread in 2018.

Gall midge adults have been found on yellow sticky card traps in soybean fields, but entomologists prefer to use emergence cages to collect adult flies. It is important to note that while the adult gall midge does not feed on soybeans, the orange-colored larvae feed on the soybean stems, causing severe destruction and often whole plant death.

Scientists believe the life cycle of the gall midge is as follows:

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• Larvae overwinter in the soil.

• After pupation in the early spring, adult midges emerge and lay their eggs at the base or lower stems of soybean plants.

• The eggs hatch and the larvae feed on the stems. Based upon observations, there appears to be two to three overlapping generations per year.

• For the hessian fly, a cousin of soybean gall midge, the life cycle from egg to adult is about four weeks. In some observations, the first generation of soybean gall midges were found on 3-inch soybeans.

No consistent patterns in planting dates, crop varieties, presence of cover crops, tillage or row spacing have been found that affect the insects’ population growth or decline.

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• As soon as soybean gall midge adults are identified, apply a foliar contact insecticide. Since adults do not feed on soybean plants, longer lasting residual insecticides are not necessary. Place applications on field edges, as the midge attacks there first.

• The hope is that a single foliar application of insecticide could provide sufficient suppression of soybean gall midge. However, it may be necessary to do two applications.

• Entomologists do not think that insecticides have any effect on the larvae, as they feed inside the soybean stems. Control options must be focused on adult flies.

Submitted photo

Insecticide seed treatments have not shown to be effective. Some researchers believe that higher rates of insecticide seed treatment could offer some suppression. However, these high rates of seed treatment are not currently offered and there is no scientific data to support their effectiveness. Some farmers observed that fields treated with a foliar insecticide had a lower incidence of soybean gall midge, but this has not been verified in controlled studies.

Over the next several months, entomologists and crop protection

professionals will be diligently working on potential solutions for 2019 production. Although not proven, the following are some points to consider for control of gall midge in future production: • Monitor for presence of the fly the first four to eight weeks after planting.

This can be done with sticky traps or emergence cages. The fly is difficult to identify and will require use of a hand lens and a detailed guide on how to identify the pest. This guide will be produced before spring of 2019.

Not all foliar insecticide labels will allow for application to control the soybean midge. Researchers and insect experts are working with crop protection companies to develop emergency use labels on insecticides that could have suppressive activity of the pest.

Research will be ongoing in 2019.

Some of the testing will include insecticide efficacy in one- and two-pass programs as well as for higher rates of seed treatment. To do this work, we are looking for volunteers to conduct On-Farm research with ISA. Contact research@iasoybeans.com to participate in this On-Farm research study.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS, ENTOMOLOGISTS AND CROP PROTECTION PROFESSIONALS WILL BE DILIGENTLY WORKING ON POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS FOR 2019 PRODUCTION.

NOVEMBER NOVEMBER 2018 2018 | IASOYBEANS.COM | 23

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strength IN UNION THERE IS

ISA’s Environmental Programs and Services

BY CAROL BROWN

he Environmental Programs and T Services (EPS) team at the Iowa Soybean Association (ISA), embodies

a Vince Lombardi quote, “Individual commitment to a group effort — that is what makes a team work, a company work, a society work, a civilization work.”

The EPS team diligently goes about their work helping farmers improve their soil and water quality, which goes a long way toward farmer profitability. From the watershed scale and trickling down to individual water samples, they consider all levels of soil and water for improved agriculture effectiveness.

24 | NOVEMBER 2018 | IASOYBEANS.COM

“For fiscal year 2019, we have secured approximately $2 million in grants and contracts for projects across Iowa,” says Todd Sutphin, ISA senior operations manager.

“We have nearly 40 projects engaging farmers, leveraging the checkoff investment 3 to 1. Our work continues to improve the competitiveness of Iowa soybean farmers.”

Sutphin says one team member’s work informs another’s work. These projects include writing watershed management plans, researching conservation agricultural drainage, water

monitoring, evaluating conservation practice performance, and forming rural and urban partnerships for improved water quality.

“Once a watershed plan is complete, we continue providing technical assistance to farmers on agronomic and conservation issues important to them. In turn, this effects farm management systems and positive improvements downstream,” he says.

The EPS team provides information that helps farmers and landowners implement decisions for their long-term profitability and conservation efforts.

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INTRODUCING THE EPS TEAM

HEATH ELLISON

DIANE ERCSE

KARL GESCH

Operations Manager – Ag and Natural Resources

Watershed Coordinator/Resource Management Specialist

Watershed Coordinator/Resource Management Specialist

Assesses current farm cropping systems through data collection; prepares conservation plans to improve soil health, water quality, reduce nutrient loss and improve the long-term productivity and profitability of farm operations.

Coordinates the Farm to River Partnership Iowa Water Quality Initiative in the North Raccoon River Watershed. Supports ag retailer agronomists working directly with farmers to implement conservation practices that reduce nutrient loss, improve soil health and water quality in sub-watersheds.

Works with groups of farmers and local partners to develop watershed plans through the Agriculture Conservation Planning Framework software. Watershed plans give residents insight on best places to target practices that would be most effective and use limited dollars wisely.

DAVE GRAHAM

THEO GUNTHER

CHRIS HAY

Water Laboratory Technician

Resource Management Specialist

Senior Environmental Scientist

Serves as lab technician for ISA’s certified water quality lab, assists in daily operation, which involves processing water monitoring samples collected across the state.

Provides technical assistance through farm conservation assessments. Current projects include cooperative research projects on cover crop seeding methods and conservation cropping systems.

Leads EPS scientific research efforts focusing on agricultural conservation drainage and edge-of-field practices; develops and implements projects in support of the Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy.

ADAM KIEL

COREY MCKINNEY

ANTHONY SEEMAN

Operations Manager – Water Resources

Natural Resources Specialist

Environmental Research Coordinator

Provides leadership and management of watershed planning, assessment and monitoring; works at the watershed level for improved natural resource conservation; fosters collaborative partnerships between farmers and downstream communities for improved water quality for rural and urban residents.

Provides field and logistical support for numerous Water Quality Initiative projects including water monitoring, edge-of-field practice installation and watershed planning.

TODD SUTPHIN

ROGER WOLF

Senior Operations Manager

Director of Environmental Programs and Services

Provides coordination and oversight of all EPS programming; involved in staff daily operations and ongoing projects including contracting, implementation, reporting and strategic planning.

Manages ISA’s certified water quality lab, field equipment and water quality database; implements water monitoring project work plans including field work and coordination of volunteers, contractors and part-time employees.

Leads the development and oversight of the EPS team; works to advance agriculture and environmental performance at the farm and watershed scales.

NOVEMBER 2018 | IASOYBEANS.COM | 25

26 | NOVEMBER 2018 | IASOYBEANS.COM

The Last Word Editor’s Notes by Ann Clinton aclinton@iasoybeans.com

Perspective on Life

“

Life is amazing. And then it's awful. And then it's

amazing again. And in between the amazing and awful it's ordinary and mundane and routine. Breathe in the amazing, hold on through the awful, and relax and exhale during the ordinary. That's just living heartbreaking, soul-healing, amazing, awful, ordinary life. And it's breathtakingly beautiful.

T

”

- L.R. KNOST

his quote has been following me around lately, so to speak.

I first saw it framed on a wall in a restaurant in Alabama. I was with my family on the Gulf Coast and amid one of those “life is amazing” times. I took a picture of the saying because I wanted to look it up later.

I imagined hanging it on my wall at home as a reminder to breathe in moments like the one I was in at the time.

Normalcy got going again, and I forgot about my intention.

Then, just as the quote says it does, life got hard. Not awful this time – I’ve seen those days, too – but hard. I never want to wish those times away because I’ve seen my fair share of blessings happen during tough days. However, sometimes things are just crappy.

I was having one of those crappy days when this quote showed up as a top hit result to a Google search.

The research I was doing was about something completely unrelated. It was like I was meant to read those words again. Perspective is often so clear when we are reminded of how much we have to be thankful for.

I am currently in the process of getting the quote framed for real this time.

As I am writing this, I am fresh off a call from my mom who was relaying the latest harvest update.

A combine breakdown has delayed progress but since it’s raining anyway, it’s a good time for it to have happened. It seems like the entire season has been like this for so many of you. One step forward and two steps back.

As the season draws to a close, we’ve been monitoring harvest progress closely here at the Iowa Soybean Association.

Each day, we hear reports of struggles and unexpected triumphs out in the field. As promised, we’ve been reporting on the latest news in regard to the tariff situation. To complement the information you’ve read in this issue of the Iowa Soybean Review, please also visit our website at iasoybeans.com.

As we enter the Thanksgiving season, I hope you are able to breathe in some amazing moments. I appreciate being able to work on your behalf within the soybean world. My view of your world may only be from the buddy seat, but I do think it’s breathtakingly beautiful.

P.S. For those of you who have been following along with my column, I have some pretty incredible news to share. My father is officially in remission from the cancer that almost took his life earlier this year. I was able to spend a few glorious days with him in the combine this fall and I can’t even begin to tell you how thankful I am for that time.

NOVEMBER 2018 | IASOYBEANS.COM | 27

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