Ecotourism Market in Brazil - Gustavo Montes by joaquim olimpio

Ecotourism Market in Brazil An opportunity to generate income and employment in the interior of the country By Luís Gustavo Montes

Presented to the faculty of the Scrivner Institute of Public Policy Studies In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Public Policy July 2021 By Luís Gustavo Montes Master of Public Policy Candidate Scrivner Institute of Public Policy Studies Josef Korbel School of International Studies Primary Advisor: Dr. Lapo Salucci Teaching Associate Professor Scrivner Institute of Public Policy Studies Josef Korbel School of International Studies Cost-Benefit Advisor: Dr. Jordan Lenger Adjunct Professor Scrivner Institute of Public Policy Studies Josef Korbel School of International Studies

Photo Credit: pixabay.com

Chapada dos Veadeiros, Brazil

Acknowledgments This memo is certainly the work of several people who supported me directly or indirectly. Whether through valuable advices or constant support. First of all, I would like to thank my family who supported me from the beginning for the conclusion of the Master in Public Policies. In special to my wife Emily Lima who was my companion in this challenge, accompanying me in the change of country, in the adaptation to a new reality, and in the difficult moments of the Covid-19 pandemic. To my mother Shirley Pereira who always supported me since the beginning of my studies and to my father Luiz Montes who has always been another pillar of my life. I thank my sister Michelly Gonçalves with whom I have always had great brotherhood. I also thank my grandparents, uncles, and cousins who also always gave me support with a very united family. I would like to thank my advisors, Professor Lapo Salucci who always showed availability and attention to my goals, offering valuable advices, and Professor Jordan Lenger who helped me navigate through the challenges of Cost-Benefit Analysis. I also give my thanks to my friend Henrique Estides who offered valuable comments on the Cora Coralina’s Path case study and to the program director Professor Naazneen Barma who always helped me with the course requirements. I also thank my classmates with whom I connected very well since the first day of the course, always offering support and fundamental friendships so that we could walk this path together. Finally, I would like to thank all those who are working with long-distance trails in Brazil, in the United States and in Europe, who offered me good moments of conversation and exchange of ideas so that this work could materialize. In special, Pedro Menezes, João Lino, Alexandrina Alves and Samuel Schwaida in Brazil, Bill Manning from the Colorado Trail and Luke Fisher from the Continental Divide Trail Coalition in the United States, and Marta Cabral from the Vincentian Route in Portugal.

Photo Credit: commons.wikimedia.org - Rafael Defavari

Santa Barbara Waterfall, Chapada dos Veadeiros - Brazil

Executive Summary This memorandum seeks to analyze the deficit of ecotourists that Brazil receives and the economic gains that the country does not gain due to this deficit, especially for micro and small enterprises. The country has a variety of natural beauties with a great capacity to attract ecotourists. However, in 2018, the country only attracted approximately 633,000 foreign ecotourists, while Peru, our neighbor in South America, attracted more than 700,000 foreigners having an area and a population 6.5 times smaller than Brazil’s, and Chile even showed more surprising results, attracting almost 1 million foreign ecotourists, having an area and a population less than 10% of Brazil. Ecotourism brings several gains, with emphasis on the economic gains of generating employment and income, and the incentive to conservation. This way, it can be an option of economic development strategy for small localities in the interior of the country. Recent studies show that public ecotourism policies have several economic impacts for local communities. However, the implementation of these policies depends on investments in local infrastructure, dialogue with local communities, and the offer of products and services linked to the practice of ecotourism. Thus, in order to reduce the deficit of ecotourists and ecotourism-related economic gains, this memorandum proposes two policy alternatives for building a network of long-distance trails that would attract hikers and cyclists interested in exploring the natural beauty of the country. The first alternative focuses on a trail network connected with local communities and with the provision of services and products by local entrepreneurs such as lodging and food. The second alternative focuses on a network of trails directed to the immersion in nature by the hiker or cyclist, so that they can enjoy the best natural attractions. Based on data from international and national examples, the cost-benefit analysis of the two alternatives shows that both alternatives have positive economic results. However, the first alternative of a network of trails connected to local communities has the best results.

1. Table of Contents ACKNOWLEDGMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 1. PROBLEM DEFINITION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Benefits of Ecotourism:. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 2. METHODS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 3. ISSUE ANALYSIS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 I. Ecotourism Scene. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 II. What we are missing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 III. The economic importance of Ecotourism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 IV. Examples of Economic Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 V. Why Invest in Ecotourism. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 VI. The importance of infrastructure and dialogue with local communities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 VII. Long-Distance Trails as a Public Policy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 5. PROPOSED SOLUTIONS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 a) Long-Distance Trails Network integrated with local communities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 b) Long-distance Trails Network focused on nature immersion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 c) Maintain Status quo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 6. COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS (CBA). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 a) Long-Distance Trails Network integrated with local communities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 b) Long-distance Trails Network focused in nature immersion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 7. CASE STUDY: CORA CORALINA’S PATH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 8. STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 6. WEAKNESSES AND LIMITATIONS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 7. CONCLUSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 8. APPENDIX . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Appendix A : CBA Alternative 1 – Benefits Scenario considering the Vincentian Route as example. . 39 Appendix B: CBA Alternative 1 – Benefits Scenario considering the Cora’s Path as example. . . . . . . . . 39 Appendix C: CBA Alternative 2 – Benefits Scenario considering the Vincentian Route as example. . . 40 Appendix D: CBA Alternative 2 – Benefits Scenario considering the Cora’s Path as example . . . . . . . . 40 9. REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

Photo Credit: Pablo Li - GESP

Pedra do Índio, Botucatu - Brazil

1. Problem Definition Currently, nature tourism is growing worldwide with annual growth averages of around 14%1. Before the Covid-19 pandemic, it was estimated that the market generated around $265 billion per year, mainly in services linked to nature tourism, such as lodging, food and guidance. Most of these services are provided by small businesses on tourist sites. Brazil is one of the countries with the greatest potential for nature tourism, sheltering around 15% to 20%2 of the world’s biodiversity, including several ecosystems with quite different characteristics such as tropical forests, cerrado (a type of savannah), caatinga (semiarid), Pantanal (big swamp) and general grasslands. The beauty of several natural places, such as the waterfalls of the central plateau, altitude fields, and lakes in the middle of the sand dunes in the Lençois Maranhenses, is in line with this.

MarketWatch. (2021, April 16). 14%+ growth for Ecotourism Market Size is Expected to Exhibit US$756 billion by 2026. MarketWatch. https:// www.marketwatch.com/press-release/14-growth-for-ecotourism-market-size-is-expected-to-exhibit-us-756-billion-by-2026-2021-04-16

United Nations. (n.d.). Pnuma: Brasil possui entre 15% e 20% da diversidade biológica mundial | ONU News. United Nations. https://news. un.org/pt/story/2019/03/1662482

Figura 1 - Brazilian Ecosystems

Amazônia

Caatinga

Cerrado Pantanal

Mata Atlântica Pampa N

1,000

500

1,000 km

Source: Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE), 2017.

Despite this diversity, Brazil is still a little-known destination for nature tourism, and with little visitation from international tourists. The country still does not have a strong ecotourism market, attracting few foreign tourists if compared to other South American countries like Chile and Peru, as will be shown later in the document. This causes the country to lose opportunities for income generation and employment, especially for small businesses. According to data from the Ministry of Tourism of Brazil, approximately 633,000 foreigners visited Brazil in 2018 with the objective of nature tourism. Overall, 6,621,376 foreign tourists visited Brazil according to the Ministry of Tourism’s data. That is, less than 10% of tourists visited the country interested in nature activities. Even so, this number is growing over the years, with 493,943 visiting the country in search of ecotourism in 2010, an increase of 28% in ten years3.

Anuário Estatístico de Turismo. Dados e Fatos. (n.d.). Ministério do Turismo. http://www.dadosefatos.turismo.gov.br/2016-02-04-1153-05.html

Purposes of International Turists in Brazil millions 5

4.63

3.91

3.72

4.19

4.09

4.77

4.74

4.71

4.54

4.57

2 1 0

0.49 2010

0.52 2011

Ecoturism

0.54

0.56

2012

2013

0.62 2014

0.60 2015

0.62 2016

0.63 2017

0.63 2018

0.61 2019

Beaches

Source: Ministry of Tourism of Brazil

However, we still notice that there is a big difference in the interests of tourists who come to the country for leisure. More than 78% of the tourists focus on the coastal area looking for sun and beach, while an average of only 16% seeks ecotourism activities. The graph also shows the impact of the 2014 World Cup, which increased the number of international tourists by approximately 500,000 in relation to 2013, with effects lasting until 2018. It is also worth mentioning that the Summer Olympics took place in the city of Rio de Janeiro in 2016. Due to this characteristic, the tourism market in Brazil is concentrated on the coast, with little attraction for tourists to seek activities in the interior. This generates an imbalance that hinders the supply of economic activities in the country’s interior and generates an incentive for the population of the interior to migrate to the large cities or to the coast. According to the Brazilian Ministry of Tourism’s Statistical Yearbook, the cumulative foreign tourist arrivals in the states of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro were around 3,600,000 in 2019, that is, more than half of the foreign tourists. We can notice a concentration of these tourists in the two states with the largest cities in the country, while the other 25 units of the federation did not attract even half of the foreigners.

Benefits of Ecotourism: According to the International Ecotourism Society4, Ecotourism can be defined as: “responsible travel to natural areas that conserves the environment, sustains the well-being of the local people, and involves interpretation and education” (TIES, 2015).

What Is Ecotourism?. The International Ecotourism Society. (n.d.). https://ecotourism.org/what-is-ecotourism/

Essentially, it is a business opportunity that aligns leisure with nature preservation. Something fundamental for the reality of the country’s interior and a viable option in view of the growth of agribusiness and mining.

a) Preservation of the environment: Ecotourism can neutralize the negative effects of human development. People who live in cities often choose to visit untouched forests, mountains and beaches to enjoy their beauty. It ends up being a market-linked option that can encourage conservationist practices, since the business model is intrinsically linked to that natural environment. Natural degradation would get in the way of economic development, according to which local agents have a great incentive for conservation.

b) Economic development: Ecotourism presents a good opportunity to generate income and jobs for the interior of the country. It is an option of economic activity for some regions in comparison to intensive agriculture and cattle ranching and mining. Ecotourism generates local consumption of services such as lodging, food industry, and guide services, and of products such as souvenir and local grocery. This generates a demand for workers and suppliers that heats up the entire local economy and provides economic opportunities for local people. This ends up bringing a positive externality that is the permanence of people on the land and decreasing the harmful impact of the disorderly growth of urban areas. It is a good vector in the fight against poverty and in the search for sustainable development.

c) Interpretation: Ecotourism generates a process of interpretation and understanding of different local realities through enriching personal experiences. These experiences increase environmental awareness, appreciation of local culture and traditional societies.

Brazil has deficit of ecotourists, that is, fewer foreign ecotourists are going to Brazil per year than would be reasonable considering the natural beauties of the country compared to other similar countries. There is an opportunity for economic gains and preservation goals. The quantitative feature of the problem is a small amount of employment and income generated as a consequence of hiking in the country. Currently, only 633,000 tourists visit Brazil annually in search of ecotourism. In Peru, for example, more than 700,000 people visit the country annually to only practice hiking. By comparison, Peru has a population of 32.5 million people and an area of 1,285,216 square kilometers (496,224 square miles), while Brazil has a population around 6.5x bigger (211 million people) and also an area around 6.5x bigger of 8,515,767 square kilometers (3,287,956 sq mi). From the data above, we can see that Brazil has still many opportunities in the area not achieved yet. Therefore, the public policy to be adopted will seek to increase the market of ecotourism Brazil, consequently increasing the number of tourists and the absolute amount of expenses during the trips, then generating income and jobs for small businesses. This is not a diagnostic problem, since the reasons for Brazil’s lack of attractiveness to ecotourists are not clear. There is also no clear causal claim since it is not known exactly what the reason is for the lack of ecotourists in Brazil.

Photo Credit: Agência Brasília - Gabriel Jabur

Ecotrilhas, Brasília - Brazil

2. Methods For the purposes of this paper, data and projections prior to the current Covid-19 pandemic will be considered. The current scenario will not be considered, given the uncertainty that the pandemic has been causing, so the best option will be to consider the data until 2019. It should be noted that the tourism sector as a whole is one of the most affected at present, mainly due to international travel restrictions and government guidance to only leave home if necessary. These limitations pose a challenge to the industry that is intrinsically dependent on tourist travel. On the other hand, precautions can be an opportunity for other areas, such as ecotourism itself, which can be practiced in smaller locations, with social distancing when visiting attractions like waterfalls or hiking trails5. This document analyses the growth of ecotourism in Brazil and in the world in the years before the Pandemic and the possible economic impacts on local communities, especially for micro and small enterprises. The final objective is to propose public policies that can increase the number of international tourists visiting Brazil for ecotourism, both in absolute numbers and also by reducing the percentage difference in relation to tourists who visit only for the beaches, in the period of 10 years. In this way, tourist visits and spending would be more uniform in the relationship between the interior and the coast. To get a picture of the current ecotourism scenario, this paper will look for two types of data. First, the state of ecoturism around the world. Ecotourism will be considered as any activity linked to nature as a form of recreation. This includes both cultural activities linked to nature as a historical route and religious activities as a pilgrim route. Second, how much income and employment those who practice ecotourism are generating in the communities involved. For this, I will consider research data on average spending by tourists in a particular location, the economic profile of that location, and the possible economic impacts of tourist spending, both direct and indirect impacts.

Bulfone, T. C., Malekinejad, M., Rutherford, G. W., & Razani, N. (2020, November 29). Outdoor Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and Other Respiratory Viruses: A Systematic Review. OUP Academic. https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/223/4/550/6009483

For the first type of data, I will review sources from public institutions and associations that monitor tourism in a given region. For the second type of data, we will consider research conducted over time by researchers in the field. Ecotourism has many facets, ranging from simple visits to parks to large excursions to tourist attractions in the countries. One of the difficulties is to separate those data that refer to different types of ecotourism, such as nature walking. For example, while Peru receives around 700,000 people interested exclusively in Hiking, only Machu Picchu in Peru received more than 1,137,000 visitors. This includes both visitors who went by motorized means as well as hikers who did the famous 4-day Salkantay Trail6. In addition, visitor surveys are always a partial sample, as it is practically impossible to have all visitors answer the questionnaires. Additionally, many tourists may visit a site interested in both ecotourism and urban activities, making it even more complicated to separate their spending in the rural areas and in the big cities. For data on economic impacts, information is scarcer. They depend on research that researchers have dedicated a good deal of time to understanding the economic reality of each region and establishing the characteristics that model the economic impact of tourist spending. Most research in the area considers the number of tourists annually, the average number of days in the region, and the average daily spending to establish the economic benefits of ecotourism activities, considering the input-output model created by the economist Leontief7. After the analysis above, it will be possible to establish a target of how many tourists interested in ecotourism Brazil has the capacity to attract annually. For this analysis, we will consider what we can call the “Brazilian idle capacity in ecotourism”, that is, taking into account the size of the country, its population and natural diversity, and comparing it with the numbers of other countries such as Peru and Chile, what would be the gap between the potential and the actual figures of ecotourism in Brazil. From the gap of tourists that Brazil could receive, it will be possible to estimate how much the country fails to gain in income and employment that would be generated from the potential expenditures that could be made by such tourists who no longer visit the country. For this estimate, the current average tourist spending per day, the number of average daily rates, and the average economic multipliers within the country will be considered. Finally, I will consider three scenarios the country of public policies related to the ecotourism area according to international experiences already practiced: a) creation of a nature contemplation trail network integrated with local communities b) creation of a nature contemplation trail network focused on nature immersion c) status quo, or maintaining the current situation without changes For the alternatives, cost-benefit analyses will be carried out to estimate their possible economic impacts based on similar projects in other locations.

Salkantay.org. (n.d.). 2019 Machu Picchu Trekking in Peru. Salkantay Trek. https://salkantay.org/.

This model will be explained later.

Photo Credit: Luís Gustavo Montes

Tabuleiro Waterfall, Minas Gerais - Brazil

3. Issue Analysis I. Ecotourism Scene Ecotourism is an activity that has been growing steadily in recent years. According to Market Watch, ecotourism will grow at approximately 14% per year and account for a market worth approximately $265 billion by the end of 2018. This growth can be seen in the increase in visitors that some attractions have been receiving over recent years. For example, at Machu Picchu, a traditional ecotourism destination in Peru, visitor numbers have jumped from just over 600,000 in 2011 to nearly 1,200,000 in 2019, nearly doubling in less than 10 years. Tourists in Machu Picchu thousands 1,200 1,000 800 600

608

699

742

781

851

923

1,144

1,137

2018

2019

990

400 200 0

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Source: Ministry of Foreign Trade and Tourism of Peru

A similar change occurred with the number of hikers in Torres Del Paine National Park in Chile. The number of visitors was relatively stable until 2012, averaging 80,000 to 90,000 visitors per year. The number started to grow considerably from 2012 and then reaching 150,000 in 2017. A growth of approximately 80% in 5 years. Hikers in Parque Nacional Torres del Paine thousands 160

150 137 124

120

102

110 90

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Source: Agriculture Ministry of Chile

There was a similar increase in Brazil. According to the Chico Mendes Institute for Biodiversity Conservation (ICMBio), the number of visitors to federal conservation units went from 1.9 million people in 2006 to 8 million in 2015 and surpassed the 15-million mark in 2019. The figures have almost doubled from 2015 to 2019.

II. What we are missing Brazil has several nature and biodiversity features to be considered one of the top ecotourism destinations in the world. The country has 6 biomes quite distinct from each other, in most of the territory the climate is tropical allowing year-round visitation and is the fifth largest country in a territory with 8,515,767,049 km2 (3,287,956 sq mi) and the sixth most populous country in the world with an estimated population of 211,755,692, according to IBGE8. However, Brazil attracted less than 700,000 tourists for the purpose of ecotourism in 2019. For comparison purposes, Chile, Brazil’s neighbor in South America and with an area just under 10% that of Brazil’s (756,096 km2 or 291,930.4 sq mi) and a population also 10% that of Brazil’s (17,574,003), attracted 987,913

Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics.

FLORIDA

MEXICO

CUBA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

JAMAICA

BELIZE

foreign tourists9 interested in visiting its natural protection areas, according to Chile’s Ministry of Agriculture. In other words, the number of foreign visitors to nature protection areas alone in Chile exceeds the total number of ecotourists in Brazil. The number of ecotourists in Chile could be even higher, if we bear in mind that this data only considers foreign visitors in natural protection areas owned by the Chilean state. There are probably other places where ecotourists visit, which would increase this number. In comparison with Peru, a country with an area of a little less than 20% of the Brazilian area (1,285,216 km2 or 496,225 sq mi) and a population of around 15% of that of Brazil (32,824,358 inhabitants), 2,389,862 foreign tourists visited the country interested in ecotourism activities, according to data from the Peruvian Ministry of Culture. This is 3 times more than the Brazilian figure.

HAITI

HONDURAS

GUATEMALA EL SALVADOR

NICARAGUA

PANAMA COSTA RICA

VENEZUELA SURINAME

COLUMBIA

EQUADOR

PERU

BRAZIL

Machu Picchu BOLIVIA

PARAGUAY

ARGENTINA

URUGUAY

CHILE

Parque Nacional Torres del Paine

If we consider the Chilean and Peruvian cases, both South American countries, which have institutional characteristics similar to Brazil’s and are located in the same region of the globe for the purposes of locomotion of international tourists, we would be expected that the number of ecotourists in Brazil would approach 6 million people, or 9 times the current number. However, it is not reasonable to expect that this number can be reached in the short or medium term. In addition, it can be argued that projecting the number of ecotourists according to area and population is not a correct way to make these estimates because each country has unique attractions that are difficult to measure. However, this assessment by area and population shows a discrepancy that should not be ignored, even if it is not directly connected to the numbers. Thus, a reasonable goal would be to increase the number of ecotourists by 3x in 10 years, reaching around 2 million foreign ecotourists in Brazil. This is still less than the number of foreign tourists that Peru receives per year. Ecotourism would represent 30% of the number of foreign tourists in the country and would cause an approximate 20% growth in the total number of visitors in the country, considering all forms of tourism.

III. The economic importance of Ecotourism Ecotourism is an economic development strategy. Investing in ecotourism generates a new industry that attracts new investments that, in turn, generate employment and income. In the infographic below, we can see how ecotourism can be a strategy for sustainable development and support for micro and small local entrepreneurs:

https://www.conaf.cl/wp-content/files_mf/1599687311Totalvisitantesa%C3%B1o2019.pdf

Ecotourism is encouraged in a Region

More jobs are created

New specialized suppliers are created

Increases the demand for good and services from intermediary suppliers

Increases the demand of good and services from local specialized suppliers (hotels, guides, etc) in ecotourism

Increases the demand of good and services from local general suppliers (groceries stores, gas stations, restaurants, housing etc)

More jobs are created

Existing specialized suppliers have an incentive to increase their supply of goods and services

Increases the demand of good and services from intermediary suppliers

More jobs are created

Figure 2 - Made by the author

Once a region makes or receives the necessary investments to be attractive to tourists, it begins to receive tourists interested in spending part of their income with services related to tourism activities. From more basic services such as accommodation, restaurants, and transportation, to more refined services such as exclusive guided tours to certain attractions and local experiences in traditional farms for visitation. This demand for more services related to the ecotourism activity generates demand for workers by the companies that offer such services, such as guesthouses and restaurants. These companies also increase the demand for suppliers, such as wholesalers of food, furniture, fuel, etc. With increased demand, the supplying companies would also have an incentive to increase the number of employees. Finally, the increase in the number of employees both in the companies that provide direct tourism services and in those that serve the first companies would increase the general demand for goods and services in the community as a whole, because, with the increase in income, these workers would consume more. Thus, we can see that new economic activity in a region generates a chain of supply and demand for new goods and services that goes far beyond the benefits of tourism alone. These are the so-called positive externalities of a new industry.

It should also be emphasized that due to its very personal character, the supply of services related to ecotourism is basically done by micro and small companies and individual entrepreneurs. Traditionally, there is little room for large companies in this sector, due to the uniqueness of each region and, consequently, the difficulty of replicating the same model in different places.10

IV. Examples of Economic Impacts The Vincentian Route in southern Portugal is a good example of economic impacts made by long-distance trails. This is a project run by a local association of small local entrepreneurs who have created a long-distance trail with several branches and aligned with local goods and service offerings. It is estimated that the Vincentian Route generated 14,722 million euros11 as hiking revenue in 2017, 8,312 million as the added value of which 5,339 million euros in direct impacts and 2,973 million euros in indirect impacts. In addition, 1,153 direct jobs were created and 418 indirect jobs. There are other examples in the United States. In 2018 the Outdoor Alliance published a study on the economic impact on the Custer Gallatin National Forest (CGNF) in the state of Montana. It is estimated that hikers spent more than $125 million in the CGNF and surrounding areas. This spending has ensured the generation of over 1,100 jobs and $36 million as income from the jobs. In 2014, Arizona State University published a study estimating spending on the order of $13.72 million by visitors to Maricopa County Nature Parks in Arizona. This spending ensured the provision of 139 full jobs and a rounding up of 2.2 million in federal taxes and 1.2 million in state and local taxes. Overall, there was a 42% return on investment (ROI), $24.2 million in total output (considering public funds invested), 301 jobs generated in the extended community, and $14.2 million in job income. In a more recent study (2019), Arizona State University researchers estimated that Maricopa County residents realized $4.85 for every $1.00 invested in park networks. According to the researcher Deepak Chhabra:

“

For every dollar invested in the eight regional parks by the Maricopa County Parks and Recreation Department in net operating expenses to offer recreational facilities and experiences for visitors, a local resident receives an economic benefit of $4.85 in employee compensation and proprietary income. The Maricopa Parks are an economic powerhouse as evidenced by the high leverage ratio and other positive study findings.

”

10 Tourism in OECD Countries 2008 - Trends and Policies. Globalisation, SMEs and Tourism Development. OECD iLibrary. (n.d.). https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/industry-and-services/tourism-in-oecd-countries-2008/globalisation-smes-and-tourismdevelopment_9789264039773-3-en 11 Clemente, P., dos Santos, R., Antunes, P., & Lopes, R. (2018). Relatório de Avaliação da Utilização e Impacto Socioeconómico da Rota Vicentina. Rota Vicentina. https://rotavicentina.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/estudo-a-rota-vicentina.pdf

Photo Credit: Jamie Fenn - unsplash.com

According to the same study it was estimated that the direct visitor spending and operating expenses translated to $69.87 million in a gross regional product, $45.61 million in labor income and 948 full-time, part-time or seasonal jobs over a 12-month period. In addition, the study found total direct spending generated $9.5 million in federal taxes and $5.84 million in state and local taxes. Park expenditures generated approximately $9.5 million in federal taxes and $5.84 million in state and local taxes. The numbers have nearly doubled from the study done in 2014, showing the growth of hiking. The outdoor industry has a large impact on the U.S. economy as a whole. According to the Outdoor Industry Foundation, outdoor activities as a whole generate the following effects: • Contributes $730 billion annually to the U.S. economy • Supports nearly 6.5 million jobs across the U.S. • Generates $49 billion in annual national tax revenue • Produces $289 billion annually in retail sales and services across the U.S. • $46 billion in active outdoor recreation gear sales and services • $243 billion in active outdoor recreation trip-related expenditures • Provides sustainable growth in rural communities The same study estimated the following impacts on the economy of the state of Colorado:

Colorado Trail, U.S.A.

• Contributes over $10 billion annually to Colorado’s economy • Supports 107,000 jobs across Colorado • Generates nearly $500 million in annual state tax revenue • Produces $7.6 billion annually in retail sales and services across Colorado – accounting for 4% of gross state product Furthermore, according to the American Hiking Association, between 50 and 70 million Americans use trails each year. Although many use only the local trails, many others also drive or fly thousands of miles to get to the trailheads. It is estimated that approximately 14 million Americans do multi-day trails in National Parks each year. And thousands more visit national forests as well. All these trips generate expenses for fuel, lodging, food, and souvenirs, which boosts the local economy. In a more qualitative study, the Continental Divide Trail (CDT) Coalition surveyed 200 small businesses along the trail of the same name that cuts across the United States from the Mexican border in New Mexico

MANITOBA

SASKATCHEWAN

CANADA to the Canadian border in Montana. 86% of the respondents stated that the trail is critical to business along the Rocky Mountains. In addition, they noted12: • 97% believe that protecting, promoting, and enhancing public lands is important to the well-being of their community’s economy; • 88% have seen growth in business in their community in the last five years due to the use of the CDT;

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• 58% have seen growth in their business in particular in the last five years due to the use of the CDT;

OKLAHOMA ARIZONA

NEW MEXICO

TEXAS

Another example is the Kokoda Track in New Papua Guinea, Oceania. This is a crossing that cuts across the island and is 96 km (60mi) long. According to a 2012 study, the use of the trail by hikers brought in the value of 9,808,058 Australian dollars to the region in one year. An estimated 2,858 hikers walked the trail during the year. An average of 8 hikers per day.

MEXICO

Thus, it is a problem that Brazil, with all the natural qualities presented above, does not attract as many hikers as other countries in South America, all with less diversity of natural beauty than Brazil. The low number of hikers, in turn, decreases the possibilities of job and income generation for micro and small companies in the local communities.

V. Why Invest in Ecotourism The ecotourism industry has several qualities that can be attractive to the Brazilian case. First, in a world that demands more and more sustainable economic activities, ecotourism is a service that can generate income and jobs for communities without the environmental impact of other common inland activities, such as intensive agriculture and mining. It is estimated that today 20% of the original Amazon Rainforest and 50% of the Cerrado have already been devastated for agriculture, cattle raising or mining. Second, since the 1950s Brazil has been going through an urbanization process, in which rural populations migrate to urban regions. This process generates social pressures in the big cities, such as lack of urban planning that triggers lack of basic services like piped water and basic sanitation with consequences in other public areas like health services. This movement occurs because of many reasons, being one the lack of opportunities for economic growth in the interior. Third, ecotourism, by its essentially conservationist character, helps in the maintenance of flora and fauna through its diversification and integration with other areas. Therefore, the agents that operate in this market have a total interest in pressuring the community and policy-makers to maintain natural environments.

12 Continental Divide Trail Coalition. (2019). Small Business Survey Fall 2019. Golden - CO https://www.americantrails.org/images/documents/ Small-Business-Survey-WEB.pdf

Photo Credit: Danielle Pereira - flickr.com

Brazil has been going through a process of growing inequality between rural and urban areas. According to a survey by the FGV (Getúlio Vargas Foundation), inequality has increased by 4% from 2014 to 2019. The average income in rural regions is R$345.43, while the average income in urban areas is R$981.41, a difference of 2.84 times. This shows an imbalance of work and employment opportunities that drives migration to the cities.

Local commerce, Chapada Diamantina - Brazil

On the other hand, agribusiness has been breaking production records annually. In 2019, it was 239,8 million tons the amount of grain. Precisely there is a mismatch between the economic result of agribusiness and the average income of the rural worker. This mismatch is justified by the increasing mechanization of agricultural production, with the respective increase in productivity. This increase in productivity and consequently in production are good signs for the economy as a whole, ensuring the entry of international financial reserves through the export of grains. However, they generate social effects in the local communities that must be mitigated with other public policies.

One of the social effects is linked to the income concentration characteristic of agribusiness. In fact, few people benefit from the activity, and fewer and fewer workers are required. Despite record production, agribusiness demanded 1 million fewer workers in 2019 compared to 2014, according to FGV data13. With mechanization there is less and less need for workers, generating fewer jobs in rural areas. With fewer people employed, there is less economic circulation in small communities impacting local micro and small entrepreneurs. An example of these effects on local micro and small entrepreneurs is the Bolsa-Família program, which is a direct income transfer program for the poorest people, without intermediaries. As the beneficiaries are free to choose where to spend the resources, they tend to spend more in local stores in their communities (basically micro and small entrepreneurs) rather than in big chain stores. As a consequence, these resources are more available in the local economy, generating more income for these small entrepreneurs. Thus, it is essential to build public policies that can offer employment and income options for the communities in the interior.

13 Desigualdade cresce mais no meio rural. Valor Econômico. (n.d.). https://valor.globo.com/brasil/noticia/2019/09/19/desigualdade-crescemais-no-meio-rural.ghtml.

Photo Credit: Antonio Lima - amazonas.am.gov.br

Serra do Aracá, Barcelos - Brazil

VI. The importance of infrastructure and dialogue with local communities Despite being an activity directly linked to nature, ecotourism depends on a minimum infrastructure to be developed. It is fundamental that the regions possibly benefited have transportation services (which includes having roads, highways, railroads and/or airports) that allow tourists to arrive in the locality, as well as accommodation services, food supply, guides, etc. Once in the local community, it is fundamental that the tourist is able to access the attractions, such as local transportation options, both public and private, and the opening of trails or paths that lead to a waterfall or a cave, for example. Aligned to the infrastructure, the participation of local communities in ecotourism projects is important. It is the communities that traditionally carry the cultural and historical values of those attractions. The lack of involvement of the local community can make the projects unviable. These observations may seem somewhat obvious, but for a country still developing its attractions they are of paramount importance. For example, we have the case of the El Dorado waterfall, the highest waterfall in height in Brazil, located in the municipality of Barcelos, in the state of Amazonas, in the Serra do Aracá National Park. To access it, the options vary from 12 to 30 hours (depending on the boat) from Manaus to Barcelos and from Barcelos at least another day by boat to the trailhead that leads to the waterfall. These difficulties make a visit to the waterfall a possibility only for people with a great adventurous spirit and the revenues generated by the visits are insignificant. As a whole, this is a region with great ecotouristic potential, as the deepest caves in Brazil and mountain ranges of more than 2,000 meters can be found there. However, the lack of infrastructure for visitation makes it practically inaccessible to most people.

Photo Credit: portalamazonia.com Photo Credit: Marcos Amend/ICMBio

El Dorado Waterfall, Barcelos - Brazil

Photo Credit: Deni Williams - commons.wikimedia.org

Pico da Neblina, Brazil

Parque Nacional do Iguaçu, Brazil

The same can be said for Pico da Neblina, the highest mountain in Brazilian territory. The Pico da Neblina National Park was closed to visitors in 2003 due to several conflicts that the visitation was generating with the local indigenous population. It is located on the border with Venezuela, in the farthest reaches of the Amazon, and can be reached by boat in hours from São Gabriel da Cachoeira, a city in the extreme northwest of Brazil. The ICMBIO has worked hard to create a project for visiting Pico da Neblina that involves the local indigenous communities, both by offering guide services and food and accommodation for tourists, as well as a plan for limiting visitation that does not generate tensions with the local people. Only then will it be possible to resume ecotouristic exploration of the site14. On the other hand, we have the Iguaçu National Park in the city of Foz do Iguaçu, on the triple border between Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay. According to ICMBIO data, the Park received more than 2 million visitors in 201915. The number of visitors has doubled since 2008. Nevertheless, that is a destination with consolidated infrastructure for visitation. There are several paved trails, access is easy from the city of Foz do Iguaçu and the city itself has an airport with flights connecting it to major centers of the country. Therefore, it is fundamental to think of solutions that improve the infrastructure for tourist visitation. A country can have of the most beautiful waterfalls in the world, but if a normal person cannot get there, the visitation of these attractions will not generate income and jobs for the community. Maybe there is place with many beautiful natural landscapes, but to enjoy them you need trails where people can walk and see all the beauty. Transportation routes are needed to take people to the cities that have the attractions, and these cities need to offer lodging and food services.

14 ICMBio. Instituto Chico Mendes de Conservação da Biodiversidade - Turismo ao Pico da Neblina deve começar em março. (n.d.). https:// www.icmbio.gov.br/portal/ultimas-noticias/20-geral/10718-turismo-ao-pico-da-neblina-deve-comecar-em-marco-de-2020 15 Governo do Paraná. (2020). Parque Nacional do Iguaçu bate recorde de visitantes em 2019. Agência de Notícias do Estado do Paraná. https://www.aen.pr.gov.br/modules/noticias/article.php?storyid=105231&tit=Parque-Nacional-do-Iguacu-bate-recorde-de-visitantesem-,%202019.

Photo Credit: pcta.org

Pacific Crest Trail, U.S.A.

VII. Long-Distance Trails as a Public Policy a) The American System of Trails In 1968, the United States Congress passed the National Trail System Act16, intending to offer outdoor recreation for a population increasingly demanding of such options. The Act sought to promote public access, nature preservation and appreciation of natural beauty and historic heritage. It also established that trails should be close to urban areas and also natural and historical scenic areas. The National Trail System Act aimed to create a system of rules and methods in which trails should be managed. Initially, only the Appalachian Trail and Pacific Crest Trail were part of the system. Over the years other trails were included according to the rules established by the Act. The Act also aimed to recognize the efforts of volunteers and non-governmental organizations in creating, maintaining and helping to manage such trails. The Act institutes four different types of trails: 1. National Recreation Trails, which are focused on outdoor recreation activities and easy access to urban areas. 2. National Scenic Trails, which are focused on maximizing outdoor recreation aligned with the preservation of scenic natural features like rivers, forests and canyons. 3. National Historic Trails, which are focused on ancient paths. 4. Connecting or side trails, which are additional points to access the other trails. Today there are more than thirty National Trails, including Historic and Scenic, and more than a thousand Recreational and Side trails17. An interesting point of the Act is that it establishes that the Secretary of Interior in common agreement with the Secretary of Agriculture, after consultation with other Federal Agencies and society, should institute a common mark for the trails of the National System. In this way, any trail becomes recognized as part of a great system, creating a logo. 16 U.S.A, C. of. (n.d.). National Trails System Act. https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/STATUTE-82/pdf/STATUTE-82-Pg919.pdf. 17 Association, P. C. T. (2021, May 26). America’s national Trails system is more THAN 88,600 miles long. Pacific Crest Trail Association. https://www.pcta.org/our-work/national-trails-system/.

The Act establishes that each trail in the National System will have an agency responsible for its administration, which will be done in coordination with the other agencies. And the agency responsible must appoint a Superintendent for the trail in question. Currently, the system trails are managed by the National Park Service (NPS), which manages 21 trails; the Bureau of Land Management, which manages one; the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), which manages six; and the NPS and BLM, which jointly manage two. NPS has created a management plan for Appalachian Trail and USFS has created a management plan for Pacific Crest Trail. The main regulatory acts refer to the studies for the inclusion of new trails and their respective management plans to be created by the responsible agencies. Currently, there are only Appalachian Trail management plans by the National Park Service and Pacific Crest Trail by the US Forest Service. The management plans establish the possible uses of the trails, depending on the places they pass through, permissions, prohibitions and general rules to be followed by the users. The legislators sought to create a system of trails that could satisfy the desires of the population for outdoor activities. For this reason, the trails allow for various uses, from traditional hiking to horses, bicycles, and skiing. Only motorized vehicles have great restrictions and are allowed on only a few trails and stretches. The main problems that legislators anticipated were the classification of the trails, the acquisition of land to create trails or move to existing trails, organization, and management, uses of the trails and funding for maintenance services. Legislators realized that most of the above problems would be difficult to solve at the federal level. So they established in the Act that federal agencies should seek partnerships with state and local governments whenever possible to solve the problems. In this way, the administration and maintenance of the trails are done very much in cooperation with local communities. The National System of Trails was the pioneer in the world in establishing a system with the governance of the federal government and its own national brand.

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(fo

ORTH WEST NATIO NAL S CENIC

Mount Rainier NP Snoqualmie Julia Butler Bear Paw NF Flathead Hansen NWR Battlefield 90 NF Gifford Lewis Pinchot NF Benton Lewis and Clark NWR and Lolo Fort Vancouver Lake 82 Clark NF McNary NWR Ridgefield NHS NWR NF Three Arch Steigerwald Lake NWR NWR RICHLAND PASCO Nez Perce Rocks NWR GREAT FALLS Franz Lake NWR NHP PORTLAND Umatilla MISSOULA Columbia Clearwater NWR OREGON CITY NF LEWISTON Lee Metcalf NWR Pierce Lewis and Clark SALEM 84 NWR Umatilla NF Lolo NF NF Mount CORVALLIS 5 HELENA Deer Lodge Hood NF Nez Perce William L. Finley NF Umatilla NF Helena NWR Willamette NF Bitterroot NF Big Hole NF NF Wallowa Whitman NB Gallatin EUGENE NF NF Beaverhead NF NF Salmon BOZEMAN NF Willapa NWR

Lewis and Clark NHP

ba m

Okanogan NF Lake Chelan NRA Wenatchee NF

Ala

North Cascades NP SEATTLE

OLYMPIA

Sai nt

PACIF IC N

Mount Baker NF

Olympic NP Olympic NF

ST. PETERSBURG

HIS R TO

Innoko NWR

CANADA UNITED STATES

A LA SK A

BERING SEA

T RA IL

Lake Okeechobee

GULF OF MEXICO

on Yuk

IDITARO NOME DN AT Alaska Maritime IO NA NWR

WEST PALM BEACH

LAREDO To Mexico City NAPLES

Alaska

MIAMI

Big Cypress N PRES

Hawaii Kaua‘i

ANCHORAGE Chugach NF

Ni‘ihau

SEWARD

Administered By: JUNEAU

National Park System

PA C I F I C O C E A N O‘ahu HONOLULU

MEM NB NBP NHP NHS NL NM N MEM NMP

Moloka‘i

HAWAI I

Maui

GU LF O F A LA S K A Pu‘ukoholä Heiau NHS Kaloko-Honoköhau NHP

PA C I F I C O C E A N 0 0

200

Pu‘uhonua o Hönaunau NHP

400 Kilometers 200

400 Miles

ALA KAHAKAI NATIONAL HISTORIC TRAIL

Hawai‘i

National Forest System

NP N PRES NRA NRR N RES NS NSR PKWY

National Park National Preserve National Recreation Area National Recreational River National Reserve National Seashore National Scenic Riverway Parkway

NF NG

National Forest National Grassland

Only national park, forest areas, and wildlife refuges that relate to the National Trails System are shown.

HILO

KAILUA-KONA

Fish and Wildlife Service

Hawai‘i Volcanoes NP

NWR

For more information about National Trails, please visit: www.PNTS.org and www.Trails50.org

Memorial National Battlefield National Battlefield Park National Historical Park National Historic Site National Lakeshore National Monument National Memorial National Military Park

National Wildlife Refuge

Bureau of Land Management

Note: Abbreviations above are for federal lands shown on this map. In many places, exact trail locations have not yet been determined. Portions of the trails indicated on this map may not be accessible for public use. Please check with individual trail clubs and managing offices for the latest available trail locations.

Courtesy: National Park Service (NPS)

Photo Credit: Fresco Tours - flickr.com

Camino de Santiago, Spain

b) European System of Cultural Routes The European System of Routes is based on cultural routes that value aspects of European cultures, the past, and local heritages. In addition, they are concerned with the generation of employment and income. In other words, their focus is far beyond the enjoyment of nature. The ‘Cultural Routes’ are a program of the Council of Europe, which currently encompasses 35 countries, including the 27 that form the European Union. According to the Council of Europe18 : «The Cultural Routes of the Council of Europe are an invitation to travel and to discover the rich and diverse heritage of Europe by bringing people and places together in networks of shared history and heritage. They put into practice the values of the Council of Europe: human rights, cultural diversity, intercultural dialogue and mutual exchanges across borders. The Cultural Routes program came into being in 1987 with the Declaration of Santiago de Compostela, the city that ends one of the world’s best-known routes, the Camino de Santiago. The Declaration was the first act to make the Cultural Routes a public policy. In it, the representatives of the Council of Europe set the following guidelines: • Identify routes throughout Europe that lead to Santiago de Compostela; • Create a standardized identification system with the Council of Europe emblem for the routes. • Develop programs to recover cultural, architectural and natural heritages along the routes and in the surrounding regions; • Promote the exchange of experiences between the cities and regions through which the routes pass; • Encourage contemporary cultural manifestations along the routes. As a way to give more prominence to the program and improve public policy, the European Council adopted Resolution 53 in 2010 by the meeting of Ministers establishing the Enlarged Partial Agreement (EPA) on Cultural Routes19. The EPA establishes the cultural routes as «an essential tool for raising awareness of the shared European heritage as a cornerstone of European citizenship a means of improving the 18 The Enlarged Partial Agreement on Cultural Routes of the Council of Europe. Cultural Routes. (n.d.). https://www.coe.int/en/web/culturalroutes/about-the-epa 19 Resolution CM/Res(2010)53 establishing an Enlarged Partial Agreement on Cultural Routes. Council of Europe. (n.d.). https://search.coe.int/ cm/Pages/result_details.aspx?ObjectID=09000016805cdb50

quality of life and a source of social, economic and cultural development», making clear the routes as a driver of social and economic development. The EPA creates a certification that must be given to routes that meet certain requirements, such as historical baggage, cultural values, and significance to European values. The administration of the certifications, along with support for the initiatives and training of the agents is now managed by the European Cultural Routes Institute based in Luxembourg. The inclusion of the routes and the offering of the certifications is the responsibility of the Council of Europe’s group of Ministers.

Courtesy: Council of Europe Office

The EPA states as its objectives the promotion of the European identity through knowledge and awareness of the common European heritage, the economic and social development of the territory, and the promotion of Europe as a unique place in world tourism. To achieve these goals, the EPA seeks to develop local organizations to carry out the projects in each locality by connecting them to the network of routes. The EPA also encourages research on the cultural values of each region and the development of activities for tourists. And finally, it seeks to create a common standard for all routes as a way to sell the product of the cultural routes as one, which increases the global reach in search of more tourists. According to a study by the Council of Europe20, the Cultural Routes offer many opportunities for micro, small, and sole proprietor’s businesses, as they are generating economic impacts in the route’s regions and improving the productivity of small businesses. At the same time, the routes are also awakening tourist interest in little known regions for tourism in Europe. Something that may also occur in Brazil. In 2020, the Council of Europe launched another study showing the economic impact of the cultural routes by the macro-regions of Europe. Among the various results, the increase in tourist spending on cultural activities within the routes and the positive impact of the routes in increasing the visibility of lesser-known European destinations stand out21. For example, according to the study ‘The Economic Impact of Pilgrimage: An economic impact analysis of pilgrimage expenditures in Galicia’, it is estimated that the pilgrims of the Camino de Santiago generated for the region of Galicia22 in 2010 something around €59.750 million and €99.575 million in Gross Value Added and between 1,362 and 2,162 jobs. Since this is a study that used data from 2010, it is to be expected that these figures are currently higher. The European system stands out for its concern with adding other characteristics besides the enjoyment of nature. There is a focus on the historical and cultural heritage, as well as a clear orientation towards generating income and employment through economic development. For this reason, it is an interesting model that aims at economic development, mainly through its impact on micro and small companies. 20 Council of Europe. (n.d.). Impact of European Cultural Routes on SMEs’ innovation and competitiveness. European Cultural Routes. https:// rm.coe.int/1680706995. 21 Council of Europe (2020, June). Economic impact of the Cultural Routes of the Council of Europe in the EU macro-regions. Brussels; Council of Europe. https://rm.coe.int/routes4u-study-on-economic-impact-of-cultural-routes-in-the-macro-regi/16809eee29%0A%0A 22 The Economic Impact of Pilgrimage: An economic impact analysis of pilgrimage expenditures in Galicia. https://arrow.tudublin.ie/cgi/ viewcontent.cgi?article=1179&context=ijrtp

Photo Credit: rotavicentina.com

Rota Vicentina activity with wine tasting, Portugal

5. Proposed Solutions The solutions listed have the objective of increasing the ecotourism market in Brazil with the consequent generation of income and jobs for small communities in the interior. The proposals will consider the importance of building the infrastructure for attracting and receiving ecotourists, that is, despite the natural beauty of the country, it is fundamental that visitors have a way to access it. This is a fundamental point of public policy that should have the various spheres of government as inductors of this process.

a) Long-Distance Trails Network integrated with local communities The first proposal would be a pilot program of construction of a national trail network of 3,000 kilometers of trails as a national public policy involving the three spheres of government (federal, state and municipal) with the objectives of offering nature recreation, connectivity with local attractions (such as waterfalls, lakes and caves), environmental conservation and, in particular, the generation of jobs and income for local communities. This proposal is based on an initiative already underway by a civil association called the Brazilian Trails Network. The proposal would be the inclusion of this initiative as a public policy by the various levels of government: federal, state and municipal. The figure of 3,000 km of trails was chosen based on the Vincentian Route in Portugal, which has approximately 750 km already implemented. In other words, the Brazilian pilot program would be 4 times bigger than Vincentian Route. Although 3,000 kilometers seems high, if we consider that Brazil has an area 92 times bigger than Portugal and a population 22 times bigger, building a network of trails 4 times bigger than the Vincentian Route is a reasonable, even a conservative project.

Photo Credit: rotavicentina.com

This proposal is called a network because several local or regional trails would be created with their own characteristics linked to their regions of origin. The ideal would also be that the administration would be done by local governments or local private associations, so that those involved in the trails have a connection to that region. The federal government should coordinate the efforts of the various initiatives and encourage the connectivity of these various trails so that at the end of the implementation process the network as a whole connects the various corners of the country. The trails, whether for hikers or cyclists, would have the objective of connecting the diverse communities in the interior of the country as well as the attractions and conservation areas. The trails would be designed with community support to generate employment and income in services such as lodging, food, and lodging in the local communities. For this, the trails would have to be designed in a mix of nature and urban environments (small villages, for example) in which hikers or cyclists could purchase goods and services and boost the local economy. The trails would be fundamental as a means of access to the attractions, and it is essentially the public infrastructure that would induce the other investments. This proposal would also encourage rural tourism, since hikers could stay at several properties along the way and purchase the experiences available there. Taking the Vincentian Route as an example, this proposal includes marketing and promotion activities for the trails in addition to physical maintenance.

Rota Vicentina local meal, Portugal

Finally, it would be fundamental to encourage volunteer work in the construction and maintenance of the trails, a practice common in the United States and Europe, as well as the construction of a brand with local variants that identifies this network as a unique product. The proposed solution changes the Status Quo in the area of outdoor activities and the tourist market, since it offers a new product of which Brazil was outside the world market. It is a project that is in the implementation phase, but still with several years to complete and currently without the support of governments.

b) Long-distance Trails Network focused on nature immersion Another proposal will be a pilot program deconstruction of a trail system of 3,000 km on the model of the United States system, focused on the offer of thousands of trails that attract hikers and nature lovers, however without the concern with the generation of employment and income, so that the trails do not also pass through urban areas and focus more on preservation areas. Again, the figure of 3,000km was chosen

In this second proposal, the hiker will focus on a more preserved nature experience, in direct contact with the landscape and with little human interaction. Due to its characteristics, this model favors environmental conservation and is also easier to implement, since it does not require much infrastructure such as lodging, restaurants, and support companies for hikers. In other words, it ends up being cheaper. In this second proposal, the focus is totally directed to hiking and visiting attractions connected by long-distance trails. The trails would not be connected to local communities (urban environments), but rather focused on the enjoyment of nature. Because of that, it doesn’t encourage income generation for the local communities and doesn’t encourage the offer of other unique experiences traditional to the locals, such as a stay in a traditional farm hotel, or classes on the local way of life. By its characteristic of being more focused on the enjoyment of nature and the physical structure, this proposal does not include marketing and promotion activities.

Photo Credit: unsplash.com

with the Vincentian Route as a parameter, the comparisons listed in the first proposal, and to make it possible to compare the economic effects of the two proposals of the same size.

Camping in the mountains, U.S.A. This proposal would eventually attract new hikers to the Brazilian market, increasing the number of ecotourists. Those who are accustomed to long-distance hiking in conservation areas, as is traditional in the United States, would be interested in this practice. The data from the American Hiking Association and the growth of hiking on long-distance trails such as the Pacific Crest Trail (PCT) indicate that this could be an effective initiative for increasing the number of ecotourists interested in hiking.

c) Maintain Status quo Finally, the last proposal would be to maintain the status quo, i.e. not create any new public policy in the area and keep the current ones. This is an option that should be considered in face of the low investment capacity that the Brazilian state has been presenting in the last years due to scarce public resources. Probably, in this scenario, the attractions already open and structured would saturate in the next years limiting the growth of ecotourism.

Photo Credit: flickr.com - Cláudio Franco

Rota Vicentina, Portugal

6. Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) The purpose of the CBA is to evaluate the direct and indirect costs of building a long-distance trail, including the costs of maintaining the trail annually. On the benefits side, the economic benefits already presented by the Vincentian Route and its adaptation to the Brazilian reality will be considered. To estimate the benefits, I will utilize the data presented by Vincentian Route in 2018 adapted for the Brazilian reality. The Vincentian Route study used the Money Generation Model (MGM2) methodology (Stynes et al, 2000), developed by the National Park Service (NPS). The Money Generation Model focuses on the economic impacts of visitor spending and uses an excel to perform these calculations. The MGM2 estimates the direct effects and secondary effects of visitor spending. Direct effects are the changes in sales, wages, and jobs in the micro and small entrepreneurs that first receive the tourist spending such as lodging, restaurants, and supermarkets. Secondary effects or “multipliers” capture the so-called indirect and induced effects. These are the indirect impacts that tourist spending makes on local economic activity, since that amount received by a local market from a tourist may be spent by the market owner in a local restaurant, or a worker who has his job linked to tourist services may spend his salary in local commerce. The total effects are the result of direct, indirect and induced effects. Economic contributions and impacts are estimated by the following equation (Stynes et al., 2000): Economic effects = Number of visitors * Average expenditure per visitor * Economic multipliers The limitations of the model are in the accuracy of the three key data points: number of visits, average expenditures, and multipliers. The most important piece of data is the estimated visits, followed by the average spending and distribution of visitors among segments then the multipliers (Stynes et al., 2000). Therefore, it was decided to work with two scenarios of possible benefits. In one scenario, the Rota Vicentina study is used as a parameter to estimate the benefits of a similar program in Brazil. In a second

scenario, the benefits are estimated according to the values calculated for the Cora’s Path in Brazil. For the implementation costs, the data from the Cora Coralina’s Path were considered. And finally, for the maintenance costs, the costs presented by the Association of the Vincentian Route were considered, since there is no data for Cora’s Path.

a) Long-Distance Trails Network integrated with local communities The cost of building the pilot trails program would be the equivalent of 10x what was spent on the implementation of the Cora Coralina’s Path, or approximately 3,000 kilometers, or four times the size of the set of trails of the Vincentian Route. The estimated cost was R$830,000.00 (reais) or $250,000.00 (dollars) considering the dollar exchange rate in 2017 when the project was implemented. By multiplying this value by 10, I arrive at an estimated cost of R$8,300,000.00 or $2,500,000.00. Maintenance costs included all of Vincentian Route’s work in developing cultural experiences on the trail, digital marketing, and trail maintenance, among others. This amounted to $1,413,480.00 per year. For the benefits part, I chose to use the case of the Vincentian Route, which presented a study with the economic benefits of the route in 2017. The study estimated that the Route generates around 14,722,000.00 euros for the region annually. Converting this value in the average exchange rate of 2017, the benefit was $17,371,960.00 or R$56,238,040.00 reais. To estimate the benefit of the Brazilian program, I chose to calculate what is the percentage of Vincentian Route in the entire tourism market of Portugal, which is equal to 0.03%, and then it is estimated that the impact of Brazil’s trails will be equivalent to 0.03% of Brazil’s tourism market. From these considerations, I arrive at an estimated value of the benefit of $49,205,689.00 per year. With these values, the Cost-Benefit Analysis presents a Net Present Value (NPV) of $333,164,923.00 and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 1,906%. In a second benefit scenario for this proposal, using the Money Generator Model (MGM2) for Cora’s Path, we arrive at a total annual benefit of $3,176,702.00. In this scenario, the Net Present Value is $9,876,585.00 with an Internal Rate of Return of 69.97%.

b) Long-distance Trails Network focused in nature immersion The estimated cost of implementation will be approximately R$5,000,000.00 or $1,000,000.00, considering that the Cora Coralina’s Path was implemented with R$500,000.00, without considering the promotion and marketing expenses, out of the scope of this second proposal. For the annual maintenance values, I considered the budget values of the Vincentian Route, taking into account only what was spent on the maintenance of the trail. This value was $134,520.00. In the benefits part, the same methodology of the first proposal was used, being that the estimated benefit of the Vincentian Route was divided by 2, since the expenses of hikers who do not use stay in hotels or eat in restaurants are approximating 50% of the average expense of all the participants, according to the Vin-

centian Route Survey. In this way, the total benefit was divided by 2, arriving at the value of $7,361,000.00 euros, or R$28,119,020.00 reais or $8,685,980.00 dollars at the 2017 exchange rate. From these considerations, we arrive at an estimated value of the benefit of $24,602,844.40 per year, or, at current exchange rates, $123,014,221.99 reais. For this proposal, we arrive at a, Net Present Value (NPV) of $170,344,698.00 and an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 1,620%. In a second benefit scenario for this proposal, using the Money Generator Model (MGM2) for Cora’s Path, we arrive at the total annual benefit of $1,026,245. In this scenario, the Net Present Value is $4,752,529.00 with an Internal Rate of Return of 58.44%. Thus, we see that the proposal of an integrated long-distance trail network is the one that presents the best results for public investments. Even using the two different benefit scenarios, it holds up with a better NPV and IRR than the proposal of a trail network with nature immersion in both scenarios.

Photo Credit: rotavicentina.com

Rota Vicentina, Portugal

Photo Credit: caminhodecoracoralina.com.br

Caminho de Cora Coralina, Brazil

7. Case Study: Cora Coralina’s Path The Cora Coralina’s Path is a long-distance trail in the state of Goiás, Brazil, connecting the cities of Corumbá to Cidade de Goiás (former state capital). Idealized in 2013, the project had the purpose of connecting the towns, villages, farms, and attractions, passing through old paths, in a tourist route for Walkers and Cyclists. The Path seeks to make a historical and cultural rediscovery of the region honoring the poetess from Goiás, Cora Coralina, who lived in the city of Goiás. The route was created to recreate the path that was taken between the city of Salvador (former capital of the Brazilian colony) and the city of Goiás, then a gold production center, in the 17th and 18th centuries. In this way, it is a project of immersion of the walker or cyclist in the historical and cultural background of the region. In 2017 the project was incorporated by the Goiás state government, through its Tourism promotion agency, which guaranteed investments in the project’s infrastructure allowing the completion of the implementation phase in 2018 and its incorporation as public policy. Soon after the launch of Cora’s Path, it was realized that it would have a good vector of job and income generation for the communities it passes through because with the arrival of hikers and cyclists there was also an increase in demand for guide services, lodging, food, and experiences linked to rural tourism. The success of the project led to the creation of the Civil Association Cora Coralina’s Path, formed mostly by entrepreneurs connected to the Path, whose goals are to maintain the trails, support local businesses connected to the Path, and promote the Path nationally and internationally. Thus, the objective of this case study is to identify the economic benefits for the region where Cora’s Path is located, using Leontief ’s input-output matrix. To perform this analysis, I considered the data collected by Goiás Turismo23 (Goiás state tourism Agency) in a survey with users of the Path in 2017: the number of trail users, an average number of days on the Path, and the average daily expenditure per individual. As multipliers will be considered those developed by a study of the Brazilian agency responsible to maintain the Brazilian National Park (Chico Mendes’s Institute of Biodiversity Conservation – ICMBio), which was applied to the economic impacts of visiting natural areas in Brazil24. 23 Governo do Estado de Goiás. Goiás Turismo. https://www.goiasturismo.go.gov.br/ 24 Beraldo, T. (2019). Contribuições Econômicas do Turismo em Unidades de Conservação para a Economia Brasileira. Brasília; Instituto Chico Mendes de Conservação da Biodiversidade https://www.icmbio.gov.br/portal/images/stories/agenda-presidente/ contribui%C3%A7%C3%B5es_Economicas_do_Turismo_-_final_-_web.pdf.

Therefore, to arrive at the total economic impacts the following formula will be applied: Economic Impacts = (Number of visitors x Average number of days on the trail x average daily spending) x local multipliers. Because it is a long-distance trail, its users can be classified as section hikers or thru-hikers. In other words, section hikers are those who only walk a few sections of the trail, while thru-hikers try to complete it without interruption. Traditionally, considering all the users of a trail, the number of section-hikers is greater than the number of thru-hikers. This is because most people do not have the time or inclination to complete a long-distance trail without interruptions. This information is important because in this study it was only possible to capture the number of thru-hikers + the number of cyclists who completed the trail. There is no reliable information on the number of section hikers. To solve this problem, it was chosen to consider the ratio of thru-hikers x section-hikers on other long-distance trails with similar characteristics. The ones that presented the most reliable data were the Payne Massif Route in Torres del Paine National Park in Chile and the Vicentine Route in southern Portugal. The Paine Massif Circuit was fully traveled by 2% on average of the visitors who go to the Torres del Paine National Park, according to data from the Chilean Ministry of Tourism25. On the Vicentine Route26, meanwhile, thru-hikers accounted for 15% of the Route’s users, according to the study released in 2018 by the Route Association. In this way, we can create a Sensitivity Analysis considering that the number of thru-hikers on Cora’s Path can vary between 2% and 15% of total users, with an average alternative of 8.5%. Thus, the alternatives would be 2050, 482 or 273 walkers and/or cyclists. With the considerations above, here are the results: Sensitivity Analysis (Values in R$)27 Number of People

Spending (R$)

Total Output

Total Jobs

Personal Income

Total Value Added

Direct + Indirect Output

2050

R$2,142.67

R$11,180,245.05

R$2,935,007.36

R$4,080,070.43

R$4,742,704.35

482

R$2,142.67

R$2,628,721.03

R$690,084.66

R$959,314.12

R$1,115,113.90

273

R$2,142.67

R$1,488,881.41

R$ 390,857.08

R$ 543,345.96

R$631,589.41

Considering the variation in the number of walkers and cyclists, the total economic gains could vary from R$11,180,245.95 to R$1,488,881.41, and the jobs generated from 93 to 12 jobs in the region. From the above figures, it seems to me that considering the possibility of 2% thru-hikers is not reasonable, and the percentage of thru-hikers is probably closer to the percentage of the Vincentian Route than the Massif Payne Route.

25 Data informed by email. 26 Clemente, P., dos Santos, R., Antunes, P., & Lopes, R. (2018). Relatório de Avaliação da Utilização e Impacto Socioeconómico da Rota Vicentina. Rota Vicentina. https://rotavicentina.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/estudo-a-rota-vicentina.pdf 27 Calculations made by the author using the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) multipliers.

Photo Credit: Wilson Ferreira Santos Fotografia

Bananal Waterfall, Botumirim - Brazil

8. Strategic Recommendations I. The CBA demonstrated that the two long-distance trail network alternatives presented positive results, with NPV between $333,164,923.00 and $9,876,585.00 and IRR ranging from 1,620% to 69.97% for the network alternative connected with local communities, depending on the methodology established for the benefits. For the alternative of a trail network with nature immersion, the NPV was between $170,344,698.00 and $4,752,529.00 and the IRR ranged from 1,620% to 58.44%. This shows that both alternatives are economically beneficial from a public policy standpoint, with the first alternative showing better results. These data aligned with the case study of the Cora Coralina’s Path demonstrate that a public policy focused on the implementation of a national trail network connected to the local community would bring considerable economic benefits to the country. II. The examples of the Vincentian Route and the Cora Coralina’s Path point to the importance of the formation of civil societies with the objective of managing the trails locally in partnership with public actors. Unfortunately, there is a tendency in Brazil to discontinue public policies when there is a change of government. With the formation of civil associations, the trails have a greater capacity to endure over the years since there is an association willing to pressure governments to maintain the trails as public policies. III. The articulation of government agencies with the local communities through which the trails pass is fundamental. Local communities may have fears and goals that should be considered by public officials. As the culture of hikers is still underdeveloped in Brazil, the appearance of hikers in nature in certain locations may generate fear and insecurity among the residents. In other places, trails can harm land-use interests other than conservation. These issues can generate conflicts and difficulties for the trails to pass in certain locations. The involvement of the local community

is fundamental. The case of Pico da Neblina28, in which there was tension with the local indigenous populations that consider the place sacred, demonstrates the need for articulation and involvement of local communities for the development of trails. IV. In order to achieve the goal of trails that attract hikers from all over the world, it is fundamental to develop a network of services and products, such as lodging, restaurants and transportation. The development of micro and small entrepreneurs through which the trails pass can be accelerated with the offer of special credit lines and training offered by the three spheres of government. V. The creation of a brand and targeted marketing actions, including the use of social networks, can be a good strategy to publicize the trails and attract international hikers.

28 ICMBio. Instituto Chico Mendes de Conservação da Biodiversidade - Turismo ao Pico da Neblina deve começar em março. (n.d.). https:// www.icmbio.gov.br/portal/ultimas-noticias/20-geral/10718-turismo-ao-pico-da-neblina-deve-comecar-em-marco-de-2020

Photo Credit: caminhodecoracoralina.com.br

Caminho de Cora Coralina, Brazil

Photo Credit: flickr.com - Cícero R. C. Omena

6. Weaknesses and Limitations The main limitations of the study are due to the availability of data that link the economic and social impacts directly to public policies for the implementation of ecotourism and cultural routes. It is difficult to separate the benefits of tourism linked exclusively to these activities, since tourists visit the country and regions for various reasons, not only ecotourism activities. Therefore, there are few studies in this area with reliable data. In addition, many trails and paths that are now part of comprehensive public policies, such as the Camino de Santiago, arose many years ago through the efforts of individuals seeking to establish routes between different regions, rather than through the efforts of the public administration. This is true of many historical paths and trails created by trailblazers’ associations before they became public policy. Thus, it is very difficult to establish the initial cost of such ventures, as they are encompassed by many private actors over the years, including the use of volunteer labor. Only in more modern routes such as the Vincentian Route in Portugal and the Cora Coralina’s Path in Brazil can we see an initial action of the state or a local association with a clear budget for the development of such undertakings. Even so, these initiatives took advantage of old existing paths. The proposals do not encompass other projects that would also be needed to develop the trail networks, such as major engineering projects (roads, airports, etc). These projects are fundamental to allow tourists to move around the country and obviously increase the attraction. However, we chose not to include them due to the complexity of calculating such values and the difficulty of making a correlation between the projects and the number of tourists. In the question of benefits, I made an adaptation for Brazil of the calculated benefits of the Vincentian Route in Portugal. However, it should be kept in mind that the tourism of hikers in Portugal is very much fed by Europeans, due to the proximity and the facilities of being part of the European Union (free transit, for example). The same does not apply to Brazil, which would probably have a profile of walkers different from the Portuguese. To counterbalance this issue, I also estmated benefit scenarios with data from Cora Coralina’s Path. For these scenarios, the estimation of the data is not so reliable because there is not a rea-

sonable number of visitors to the Cora’s Path and the data was collected in the first year of the trail, i.e. the number of users will probably grow in the following years. Also, an evaluation and comparison of the entry and visa policies between Brazil and the countries analyzed was not done. In the Portuguese case, for example, the main profile of tourists is of residents in the common European space (Schegen), so they have free transit with in Portugal. Brazil, on the other hand, only recently (2019) removed the visa requirement for tourists from the USA. Obviously, the requirement negatively impacted the entry of US tourists in the period prior to 2019.

Photo Credit: commons.wikimedia.org - Joao Lara Mesquita

In order to carry out the cost-benefit analysis, I used the Input-Output methodology developed by the economist Leontief. Despite being widely used to assess the economic impacts of such public policies, this methodology has some shortcomings. The fact that the methodology does not include the opportunity cost of the initial investment. In other words, what was spent to start the project could have been spent on other activities that could also generate income and employment with direct and indirect impacts. Therefore, a correct way to evaluate the economic impacts should subtract the economic impacts of these other activities that were not performed when it was preferred to invest in the public policies of trails and paths. This occurs because the public manager has scarce resources and needs to make choices about where to invest them. Finally, the covid-19 pandemic has created a huge challenge for the tourism industry. Little is known about how the area will recover and what travel will look like in the coming years. Therefore, the pandemic has likely changed the interest of trekkers considering the pre-Covid scenario. Thus, for purposes of Cost-Benefit Analysis, the pandemic has made the projection of trail users less safe to rely on.

Lençóis Maranhenses National Park, Brazil

Photo Credit: pxhere.com

Waterfall Paradise,Votorantim - Brazil

7. Conclusion The ecotourism market is one of the fastest-growing in the world today, it is an alternative for economic development for communities in the interior of the country, and it is a good business opportunity for micro and small entrepreneurs. However, Brazil, despite its size, natural beauty, and biodiversity, still attracts few foreign tourists if compared to its neighbors such as Peru and Chile. One of the bottlenecks for this low attractiveness is the lack of infrastructure to visit Brazil’s natural attractions. This paper presents two proposals for national trail networks that could ease this bottleneck and make the country more attractive to foreign hikers. Both the proposal of a network of trails with integration with local communities and the proposal of a network of trails focused on immersion in nature presented positive Net Present Value, indicating that they are investments that will bring benefits above their costs. The proposal of a network of trails integrated with local communities, in turn, presented the best results, indicating that the development of local service providers integrated into the trails is the best way to generate income and employment. However, it should be kept in mind that in order to completely overcome the gap between the number of foreigners the country receives and the number it could receive, with the consequent income gap, many other joint initiatives of public agencies would still be necessary.

8. Appendix Appendix A : CBA Alternative 1 – Benefits Scenario considering the Vincentian Route as example Name of Analyst: Luis Montes

(1) Uses Constant Dollars

Alternative #1: Network of Trails integrated with local communities

(2) Real Discount Rate

7.00%

Date: June 21, 2021 Constant Dollars Year 2017 (In-Class Example) Cost Description

Cost $

PV Cost $

Start-Up

$2,507,552

Annual Recurring

Year

Benefit Description Income generation

Benefit $

PV Benefit $

Discount Factor

Net Cash Flows $

Net Disc. Flows $

1.000

-$2,507,552

$1,413,480

$1,321,009

$49,205,689

$45,986,625

0.935

$47,792,209

$44,665,616

$1,413,480

$1,234,588

$49,205,689

$42,978,154

0.873

$47,792,209

$41,743,566

$1,413,480

$1,153,821

$49,205,689

$40,166,499

0.816

$47,792,209

$39,012,679

$1,413,480

$1,078,337

$49,205,689

$37,538,784

0.763

$47,792,209

$36,460,447

$1,413,480

$1,007,792

$49,205,689

$35,082,976

0.713

$47,792,209

$34,075,184

$1,413,480

$941,861

$49,205,689

$32,787,828

0.666

$47,792,209

$31,845,967

$1,413,480

$880,244

$49,205,689

$30,642,830

0.623

$47,792,209

$29,762,586

$1,413,480

$822,658

$49,205,689

$28,638,159

0.582

$47,792,209

$27,815,501

$1,413,480

$768,839

$49,205,689

$26,764,634

0.544

$47,792,209

$25,995,795

$1,413,480

$718,542

$49,205,689

$25,013,677

0.508

$47,792,209

$24,295,135

PV Net Cash Flows 0-20

$333,164,923

Total $

$16,642,352

Net Present Value $

PV Net Cash Flows 1-20

$335,672,475

$333,164,923

$12,435,244

Avg. Net Disc $1-20

$33,567,248

133.86

Avg. Net UnDisc, $1-20

$47,792,209

Profitability Index (PI)/Benefit-Cost Ratio Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

$492,056,888

$345,600,167

1905.93%

Discounted Payback Period in Years

0.07

Undiscounted Payback in Years

0.05

Notes: (1) Input data in only columns D and H, the blue and green highlighted areas. Simply override numbers in the Example. (2) Spreadsheet automatically computes Net Present Value (NPV), Profitability Index (PI), IRR, and two Payback Periods. (3) You may need to add together certain Costs and Benefits as there is one line per year for this data for each year. Just keep track of your numbers and how you added these together for input on the Spreadsheet. (4) This example uses Constant Dollars and OMB Circular A-94 Real Discount Rate of 7%. This rate can be changed in cell J5.

Appendix B: CBA Alternative 1 – Benefits Scenario considering the Cora’s Path as example Name of Analyst: Luis Montes

(1) Uses Constant Dollars

Alternative #1: Network of Trails integrated with local communities

(2) Real Discount Rate

7.00%

Date: June 21, 2021 Constant Dollars Year 2017 (In-Class Example) Cost Description

Cost $

PV Cost $

Start-Up

$2,507,552

Annual Recurring

Year

Benefit Description Income generation

Benefit $

PV Benefit $

Discount Factor

Net Cash Flows $

Net Disc. Flows $

1.000

-$2,507,552

$1,413,480

$1,321,009

$3,176,702

$2,968,880

0.935

$1,763,222

$1,647,871

$1,413,480

$1,234,588

$3,176,702

$2,774,655

0.873

$1,763,222

$1,540,067

$1,413,480

$1,153,821

$3,176,702

$2,593,135

0.816

$1,763,222

$1,439,315

$1,413,480

$1,078,337

$3,176,702

$2,423,491

0.763

$1,763,222

$1,345,154

$1,413,480

$1,007,792

$3,176,702

$2,264,945

0.713

$1,763,222

$1,257,153

$1,413,480

$941,861

$3,176,702

$2,116,771

0.666

$1,763,222

$1,174,910

$1,413,480

$880,244

$3,176,702

$1,978,290

0.623

$1,763,222

$1,098,046

$1,413,480

$822,658

$3,176,702

$1,848,869

0.582

$1,763,222

$1,026,212

$1,413,480

$768,839

$3,176,702

$1,727,915

0.544

$1,763,222

$959,076

$1,413,480

$718,542

$3,176,702

$1,614,874

0.508

$1,763,222

$896,333

PV Net Cash Flows 0-20

$9,876,585

Total $

$16,642,352

Net Present Value $ Profitability Index (PI)/Benefit-Cost Ratio Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

$12,435,244

PV Net Cash Flows 1-20

$12,384,137

$9,876,585

$31,767,020

$22,311,826

Avg. Net Disc $1-20

$1,238,414

4.94

Avg. Net UnDisc, $1-20

$1,763,222

69.97%

Discounted Payback Period in Years

2.02

Undiscounted Payback in Years

1.42

Notes: (1)Input data in only columns D and H, the blue and green highlighted areas. Simply override numbers in the Example. (2) Spreadsheet automatically computes Net Present Value (NPV), Profitability Index (PI), IRR, and two Payback Periods. (3) You may need to add together certain Costs and Benefits as there is one line per year for this data for each year. Just keep track of your numbers and how you added these together for input on the Spreadsheet. (4) This example uses Constant Dollars and OMB Circular A-94 Real Discount Rate of 7%. This rate can be changed in cell J5.

Appendix C: CBA Alternative 2 – Benefits Scenario considering the Vincentian Route as example Name of Analyst: Luis Montes

(1) Uses Constant Dollars

Alternative #1: Network of Trails integrated with local communities

(2) Real Discount Rate

7.00%

Date: June 21, 2021 Constant Dollars Year 2017 (In-Class Example) Cost Description

Cost $

PV Cost $

Start-Up

$1,510,574

$2,507,552

Annual Recurring

Year

Benefit Description Income generation

Benefit $

PV Benefit $

Discount Factor

Net Cash Flows $

Net Disc. Flows $

1.000

-$1,510,574

$134,520

$1,321,009

$24,602,844

$22,993,313

0.935

$24,468,324

$22,867,593

$134,520

$1,234,588

$24,602,844

$21,489,077

0.873

$24,468,324

$21,371,582

$134,520

$1,153,821

$24,602,844

$20,083,250

0.816

$24,468,324

$19,973,441

$134,520

$1,078,337

$24,602,844

$18,769,392

0.763

$24,468,324

$18,666,768

$134,520

$1,007,792

$24,602,844

$17,541,488

0.713

$24,468,324

$17,445,577

$134,520

$941,861

$24,602,844

$16,393,914

0.666

$24,468,324

$16,304,278

$134,520

$880,244

$24,602,844

$15,321,415

0.623

$24,468,324

$15,237,643

$134,520

$822,658

$24,602,844

$14,319,079

0.582

$24,468,324

$14,240,788

$134,520

$768,839

$24,602,844

$13,382,317

0.544

$24,468,324

$13,309,147

$134,520

$718,542

$24,602,844

$12,506,839

0.508

$24,468,324

$12,438,455

PV Net Cash Flows 0-20

$170,344,698

Total $

$2,855,774

Net Present Value $

PV Net Cash Flows 1-20

$171,855,272

$170,344,698

$12,435,244

Avg. Net Disc $1-20

$17,185,527

113.77

Avg. Net UnDisc, $1-20

$24,468,324

Profitability Index (PI)/Benefit-Cost Ratio Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

$246,028,444

$172,800,084

1619.80%

Discounted Payback Period in Years

0.09

Undiscounted Payback in Years

0.06

Notes: (1)Input data in only columns D and H, the blue and green highlighted areas. Simply override numbers in the Example. (2) Spreadsheet automatically computes Net Present Value (NPV), Profitability Index (PI), IRR, and two Payback Periods. (3) You may need to add together certain Costs and Benefits as there is one line per year for this data for each year. Just keep track of your numbers and how you added these together for input on the Spreadsheet. (4) This example uses Constant Dollars and OMB Circular A-94 Real Discount Rate of 7%. This rate can be changed in cell J5.

Appendix D: CBA Alternative 2 – Benefits Scenario considering the Cora’s Path as example Name of Analyst: Luis Montes

(1) Uses Constant Dollars

Alternative #1: Network of Trails integrated with local communities

(2) Real Discount Rate

7.00%

Date: June 21, 2021 Constant Dollars Year 2017 (In-Class Example) Cost Description

Cost $

PV Cost $

Start-Up

$1,510,574

Annual Recurring

Year

$134,520

$125,720

$134,520

$117,495

Benefit Description Income generation "

Benefit $

PV Benefit $

Discount Factor

Net Cash Flows $

Net Disc. Flows $

1.000

-$1,510,574

$1,026,245

$959,107

0.935

$891,725

$833,388

$1,026,245

$896,362

0.873

$891,725

$778,867

$134,520

$109,808

$1,026,245

$837,722

0.816

$891,725

$727,913

$134,520

$102,625

$1,026,245

$782,917

0.763

$891,725

$680,293

$134,520

$95,911

$1,026,245

$731,699

0.713

$891,725

$635,788

$134,520

$89,636

$1,026,245

$683,830

0.666

$891,725

$594,194

$134,520

$83,772

$1,026,245

$639,094

0.623

$891,725

$555,322

$134,520

$78,292

$1,026,245

$597,284

0.582

$891,725

$518,992

$134,520

$73,170

$1,026,245

$558,209

0.544

$891,725

$485,039

$134,520

$68,383

$1,026,245

$521,691

0.508

$891,725

$453,308

PV Net Cash Flows 0-20

$4,752,529

$2,855,774

$2,455,386

$10,262,450

$7,207,915

PV Net Cash Flows 1-20

$6,263,103

Total $ Net Present Value $

Profitability Index (PI)/Benefit-Cost Ratio Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

$4,752,529

Avg. Net Disc $1-20

$626,310

4.15

Avg. Net UnDisc, $1-20

$891,725

58.44%

Discounted Payback Period in Years

2.41

Undiscounted Payback in Years

1.69

Notes: (1)Input data in only columns D and H, the blue and green highlighted areas. Simply override numbers in the Example. (2) Spreadsheet automatically computes Net Present Value (NPV), Profitability Index (PI), IRR, and two Payback Periods. (3) You may need to add together certain Costs and Benefits as there is one line per year for this data for each year. Just keep track of your numbers and how you added these together for input on the Spreadsheet. (4) This example uses Constant Dollars and OMB Circular A-94 Real Discount Rate of 7%. This rate can be changed in cell J5.

9. References Agricultura, M. de. (n.d.). Registro Ingreso Visitantes - Parque Nacional Torres Del Paine. Anuário Estatístico de Turismo. Dados e Fatos. (n.d.). http://www.dadosefatos.turismo.gov.br/201602-04-11-53-05.html. Associação da Rota Vicentina. (2016). PLANO DE ACTIVIDADES E ORÇAMENTO 2017. Associação da Rota Vicentina. Association, P. C. T. (2021, May 26). America’s national Trails system is more THAN 88,600 miles long. Pacific Crest Trail Association. https://www.pcta.org/our-work/national-trails-system/. Beraldo, T. (2019). Contribuições Econômicas do Turismo em Unidades de Conservação para a Economia Brasileira. Brasília; Instituto Chico Mendes de Conservação da Biodiversidade. Bulfone, T. C., Malekinejad, M., Rutherford, G. W., & Razani, N. (2020, November 29). Outdoor Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and Other Respiratory Viruses: A Systematic Review. OUP Academic. https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/223/4/550/6009483. Carlsen, J. (2012) The Economic Significance of the Trekking on the Kokoda Track, PNG in 2011. Report to the Kokoda Track Authority. Curtin Sustainable Tourism Centre: Curtin University, Perth. Chapter 27 - National Trail System. (n.d.). Retrieved June 19, 2021, from https://uscode.house.gov/ view.xhtml?path=%2Fprelim%40title16%2Fchapter27 Clemente, P., dos Santos, R., Antunes, P., & Lopes, R. (2018). Relatório de Avaliação da Utilização e Impacto Socioeconómico da Rota Vicentina. Rota Vicentina. https://rotavicentina.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/estudo-a-rota-vicentina.pdf. Continental Divide Trail Coalition. (2019). Small Business Survey Fall 2019. Golden - CO. https://www. americantrails.org/images/documents/Small-Business-Survey-WEB.pdf Costa, R. F. R. da, & Costa, G. C. (2016). Pobres no Campo, Ricos na Cidade? Uma Análise Multidimensional da Pobreza. Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural. https://www.scielo.br/j/resr/a/R4WSRMs6R3jy8tqbx6DNBzR/?lang=pt. Council of Europe (2020, June). Economic impact of the Cultural Routes of the Council of Europe in the EU macro-regions. Brussels; Council of Europe. Council of Europe. (n.d.). Impact of European Cultural Routes on SMEs’ innovation and competitiveness. European Cultural Routes. https://rm.coe.int/1680706995.

Economic Benefits of Trails. American Hiking Society. (2018, August 9). https://americanhiking.org/ resources/economic-benefits-of-trails/. Foundation, O. I. (n.d.). The Active Outdoor Recreation Economy. Outdoor Industry. https://www. outdoorindustry.org/pdf/ColoradoRecEconomy.pdf. Goiás Turismo. (2019). Pesquisa de Perfil e Satisfação dos Caminhantes do Caminho de Cora Coralina 2018. Goiás Turismo. Governo do Paraná. (2020). Parque Nacional do Iguaçu bate recorde de visitantes em 2019. Agência de Notícias do Estado do Paraná. https://www.aen.pr.gov.br/modules/noticias/article.php?storyid=105231&tit=Parque-Nacional-do-Iguacu-bate-recorde-de-visitantes-em-,%202019. Graave, Elisabeth J.E; Klijs, Jeroen; and Heijman, Wim (2017) “The Economic Impact of Pilgrimage: An economic impact analysis of pilgrimage expenditures in Galicia,” International Journal of Religious Tourism and Pilgrimage: Vol. 5: Iss. 3, Article 7. doi:https://doi.org/10.21427/D7DD83 How Many People Hike the AT and PCT? - Atlas Guides Blog. Atlas Guides. (2021, May 12). https:// atlasguides.com/how-many-people-hike-the-at-and-pct/. ICMBio. Instituto Chico Mendes de Conservação da Biodiversidade - Turismo ao Pico da Neblina deve começar em março. (n.d.). https://www.icmbio.gov.br/portal/ultimas-noticias/20-geral/10718-turismo-ao-pico-da-neblina-deve-comecar-em-marco-de-2020. MarketWatch. (2021, April 16). 14%+ growth for Ecotourism Market Size is Expected to Exhibit US$756 billion by 2026. MarketWatch. https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/14-growth-for-ecotourism-market-size-is-expected-to-exhibit-us-756-billion-by-2026-2021-04-16. National Park Service. (n.d.). Visitor Spending Effects. National Parks Service. https://www.nps.gov/ subjects/socialscience/vse.htm. Número de visitantes a parques nacionales en Chile aumentó en más de 255.000 personas entre 2014 y 2018. INE Chile. (n.d.). https://www.ine.cl/prensa/2020/08/24/n%C3%BAmero-de-visitantesa-parques-nacionales-en-chile-aument%C3%B3-en-m%C3%A1s-de-255.000-personas-entre-2014-y-2018. Outdoor Alliance. (n.d.). Custer Gallatin Economic Reports. Outdoor Alliance. https://www.outdooralliance.org/custer-gallatin-economic-reports. PCT visitor use statistics. Pacific Crest Trail Association. (2020, January 8). https://www.pcta.org/ourwork/trail-and-land-management/pct-visitor-use-statistics/. Research finds taxpayers get more than 4 times return on investment in Maricopa County parks and recreation. School of Community Resources and Development. (2021, March 23). https://scrd.asu. edu/content/research-finds-taxpayers-get-more-4-times-return-investment-maricopa-county-parks-and?s=03&fbclid=IwAR3RPmlwLoYGHqkvE4WKchvjLJ_R8b_Csyp1IF_MCHhgd25pV6zK96ANCZ4. Research Service, C. (2020). The National Trails System: A Brief Overview. Retrieved June 19, 2021, from https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R43868.pdf Resolution CM/Res(2010)53 establishing an Enlarged Partial Agreement on Cultural Routes. Council of Europe. (n.d.). https://search.coe.int/cm/Pages/result_details.aspx?ObjectID=09000016805cdb50. Salkantay.org. (n.d.). 2019 Machu Picchu Trekking in Peru. Salkantay Trek. https://salkantay.org/.

The Business of Trails: A Compilation of Economic Benefits. The Business of Trails: A Compilation of Economic Benefits - American Trails. (n.d.). https://www.americantrails.org/resources/the-business-of-trails-a-compilation-of-economic-benefits. The Enlarged Partial Agreement on Cultural Routes of the Council of Europe. Cultural Routes. (n.d.). https://www.coe.int/en/web/cultural-routes/about-the-epa. Tourism as a Development Strategy. Geography @ NumptyNerd. (n.d.). https://www.numptynerd.net/ tourism-as-a-development-strategy.html. Tourism in OECD Countries 2008 - Trends and Policies. Globalisation, SMEs and Tourism Development. OECD iLibrary. (n.d.). https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/industry-and-services/tourism-in-oecdcountries-2008/globalisation-smes-and-tourism-development_9789264039773-3-en. U.S.A, C. of. (n.d.). National Trails System Act. https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/STATUTE-82/ pdf/STATUTE-82-Pg919.pdf. United Nations. (n.d.). Pnuma: Brasil possui entre 15% e 20% da diversidade biológica mundial | ONU News. United Nations. https://news.un.org/pt/story/2019/03/1662482. What Is Ecotourism?. The International Ecotourism Society. (n.d.). https://ecotourism.org/ what-is-ecotourism/.