Access Engineering PLC (AEL)
Target price
LKR 26.80
Bloomberg: AEL SL Equity
BUY
31 December 2013
Riding on the Wave of Construction Sector Growth Key Data
Access Engineering PLC (AEL) is a leading player in the construction sector witnessing significant growth in its revenue and profit streams at present. We recommend a BUY for AEL due to (1) the significant growth expected in the construction sector in the next 5-7 years, (2) the strong relationships of AEL with main contractors overseas and local parties, (3) commitments made by the Company for better margins and, (4) attractive valuation.
Number of issued Shares (m)
1,000.00
Price at evaluation (LKR)
22.10
Market Capitalization (LKR b)
22.10
Company as a % of Total Market Cap
0.9% 23.20
High (52 weeks) (LKR) Low (52 weeks) (LKR)
18.50
Free float (%)
13.8%
Market data as of 31st December 2013
•
•
Well set to experience better margins AEL has invested in 4 asphalt mixing plants, 3 crusher plants and 2 ready-mix concrete plants which are supplying key materials such as asphalt, crushed rock aggregates required for the construction activities undertaken by the Company. In our opinion, being able to internally source these key materials would generate extra revenue and better profit margins for the Company in the long term.
2012A
P/E (x)
2014F
2015F
8.28
9.00
9.20
2.50
1.58
1.53
1.30
11.69
6.64
5.01
5.30
0.61
2.54
2.20
2.20
P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
2013A
14.59
Dividend Yield (%)
Share price performance 7,000
29.0 Market
27.0
6,500 6,000
25.0
AEL
23.0 21.0
5,500
19.0
5,000
LKR/share
AEL maintains strong relationships with main contractors overseas and local stakeholders The key strength of AEL is the very strong relationships maintained with its main contractors overseas. These relationships built over many years not only bring the Company recurring business but also create opportunities to provide its value added services in other projects of these main contractors both in and outside the country. Furthermore, AEL has maintained strong relationships with the Government and leading corporates in the private sector thereby securing many mega infrastructure projects for itself.
Valuation
Index value
•
Construction sector is to experience a strong growth Post-war Sri Lanka is majorly focusing on infrastructure development both at the state and private sector levels. The construction sector grew by 39.3% (current prices) in 2012 compared to 20.7% in 2011. We expect the sector to experience the same level of growth in the coming 5-7 years.
17.0 4,500
15.0 13.0
4,000 Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Source: Bloomberg, Candor
LKR (Millions)
•
20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0
3,500 Revenue (LHS)
3,000
Net Profit (RHS)
2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2009A
2010A
2011A
2012A
2013A
2014F
Valuation of AEL is attractive at current prices. Our DCF valuation suggests a value per share of LKR 26.80 which translates to an upside of 21.3% to the current price of LKR 22.10. Given the growth potential in the construction sector and the resultant prospects for Access Engineering, we expect AEL to trade at a forward P/E of 9x compared to the trailing P/E of 8.2x in FY2013 which leads to a value of LKR 27.60. This multiple based valuation also falls in line with the value suggested by our DCF valuation. Shehan Bandara shehan.bandara@candorh.com +94 112 359 137
1
Company Profile AEL has a decade w orth of engineering ex pertise
Established in 2001 and with a decade worth of engineering expertise, AEL is one of the leading construction companies in Sri Lanka. AEL claims for the largest market capitalization in the construction sector of the Colombo Stock Exchange with a market capitalization of LKR 22.1b as at 31st December 2013. The Company has a track record of an array of projects consisting of flyovers, roads, highways, harbour projects and many other infrastructure development related ventures across the country.
Governm ent’s projects, Com pany’s forte
AEL has undertaken road construction in many areas of the country including previously war hit Jaffna, generating LKR 5.99b of revenue in FY2013, up 33.7% YoY. Valaiyaru Bridge, Ayithiamunai Bridge, 6 Vavichchanai Access Road Box Bridges, Kiran Ferry Road Bridge are few of the many bridges constructed by AEL. Construction of water facilities in Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport (MRIA) and Hambantota sea port were also undertaken by AEL while it executed rehabilitation work in the Unity Container Terminal in the Colombo Port. The Company was also engaged in the construction of access roads, fire rescue, cargo building and fuel hydrant system of Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport. The country’s largest telecommunication services provider hired the services of AEL for the installation of fibre optic cables and the Company also rendered piling services as a sub contractor of the Northern Section of the Outer Circular Highway. These construction projects that were undertaken by AEL well reflect the degree of credibility it is regarded with and the reputation earned as a sub contractor by both local customers and overseas contractors thereby providing much evidence of the Company’s reach in its area of expertise. The Group Structure Access Engineering PLC owns two subsidiaries namely, Sathosa Motors PLC and Access Realities (Private) Limited.
2
Sathosa Motors PLC Sathosa M otors P LC holds m ore prospects
Sathosa Motors PLC is the franchise holder for Isuzu vehicles and spare parts manufactured by Isuzu Motors Limited and Opel passenger cars and Opel spare parts. AEL acquired a controlling stake of 59.67% in Sathosa Motors PLC in February 2012 and increased its stake to 77.1% in March 2012. Partnerships with ITOCHU Corporation in Japan, Chinese multinational heavy machinery manufacturing company and the sixth largest in the world, SANY Group in China are of immense strategic value for Sathosa Motors PLC. SML Frontier Private Limited which is a 50% owned subsidiary of Sathosa Motors PLC obtained the rights to sell and distribute the Land Rover and Range Rover brands in Sri Lanka. The revenue and Profit after Tax of Sathosa Motors PLC grew at a 7 year CAGR of 14.6% and 13.6% respectively. Access Realities (Private) Limited
Access Tow ers 2 w ill be operational from end 2015
The Access Group operates its flagship building of “Access Towers�, built on 94 perches with a land extent of over 1 acre and total built up area of 200,000 square feet. It consists of 12 floors and 2 basements located in the business district of Union Place, Colombo 2. AEL intends to make Access Towers 2 operational by end 2015 and this would make an addition of 135,000 sq feet of rentable space. Given the increasing demand for prominent business offices and increasing rental charges, we expect Access Realities (Private) Limited to increase its revenue and in turn earnings.
Table 01: Revenue break-down by key business segment
Table 02: Revenue growth from FY2011-FY2013
Sathosa Motors PLC 17%
16,000 14,000
Sathosa Motors PLC Access Realities (Pvt) Limited
Access Realities (Pvt) Limited 1%
12,000
Access Engineering
LKR m
10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Access Engineering 82%
Source: Company data, Candor
0 2011
2012
2013
Source: Company data, Candor
3
Construction Sector to Witness Significant Growth Post-war development gaining prominence across the country
The Government as well as the private sector in the post war Sri Lankan economy are mainly focusing on infrastructure development and we expect this trend to continue for the next 5 to 7 years. The construction sector grew by 39.3% (current prices) in 2012 compared to 20.7% in 2011. Entities in the private sector are improving their infrastructure to capitalize on emerging commercial opportunities with new constructions, refurbishments and increased maintenance while the Government is undertaking heavy investments in developing the road network, ports, and highways in revitalizing the economy in meeting challenging economic growth targets set for the future. The construction sector has been rendering an increasing contribution to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Sri Lanka and its significance is mounting given the post war economic recovery efforts of the country. AEL has its roots firmly planted in this growing sector of the economy.
Table 03: Construction sector contribution to GDP 2007-2012 LKR m. Gross Domestic Product (Current Prices) Construction Sector (Current Prices) Contribution
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 3,578,688 4,410,682 4,835,293 5,604,104 6,544,009 7,582,376 264,104 327,138 366,248 423,414 511,220 712,272 7.4% 7.4% 7.6% 7.6% 7.8% 9.4%
Gross Domestic Product (Constant Prices) Construction Sector (Constant Prices) Contribution
2,232,656 2,365,501 2,449,214 2,645,542 2,863,715 3,047,277 142,996 154,173 162,790 177,912 203,204 247,091 6.4% 6.5% 6.6% 6.7% 7.1% 8.1%
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
The Government is pursuing a vision to improve the road network of the country to create wider opportunities to promote development. Towards this end, Ministry of Ports and Highways, Ministry of Local Government and Provincial Councils and Ministry of Economic Development have been allocated with funds to improve road connectivity of the country. Further, as per the 2014 Budget Proposal, the Government plans to construct 1,000 new bridges connecting villages situated in difficult geographical locations to the mainstream development activities. We believe that the second stage of development of Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport, and the rehabilitation of ports and potential expansion projects of ports in making Sri Lanka a transportation hub would also introduce construction opportunities. Further, we believe that commercial and residential construction and maintenance projects, expansion of energy and telecom related infrastructure would also generate revenue for the Company in the medium to longer term.
4
Strong Relationships – The Key to AEL’s Success AEL is a preferred subcontractor for many overseas contractors
AEL has been able to function as a sub contractor for renowned construction companies overseas and we expect that these relationships to earn the Company more engineering opportunities overseas while being the most preferred local subcontractor for these main contractors in their future construction endeavours in Sri Lanka. Table 04: Some of AEL’s key projects Project
Main Contractor
Jaffna-Kankasanthurai road, Puttur-Meesalai Road and Jaffna China Railway Company –Palali Road Mannar-Pooneryn road
China Harbour Engineering Company
Sangupiddy bridge
China Harbor Engineering Company
Greater Colombo Urban Transport Development Project
Xi’an Dagang Road Machinery Company Limited of China Garware-Wall Ropes Ltd of India
Veyangoda Flyover project
Centunion, Spain
Galagedara-Rambukkana road
Cargo and Fire Rescue Buildings at MRIA China Harbor Engineering Company Airport Apron Fuel Hydrant System and aviation fuel storage China Harbor Engineering Company facilities at MRIA Source: Company data, Candor
AEL has been able to secure many of government infrastructure projects
The Company has in the past been entrusted with projects with a notable extent in terms of size and diversity by both local and foreign customers and has a good reputation in involvements with the capital expenditure projects of the Sri Lankan Government. This is evident by the Government granting Henamulla Housing Project in which AEL provided structural design and all civil engineering works for five, 12storey apartment blocks comprising a total of 1,137 housing units. With the view of providing confirmed property rights for households with underserved settlements, Government plans to undertake such constructions for the next 6 years to relocate 70,000 households. The contribution of Building and Other Construction segment to total revenue of the Company in FY2012 and FY2013 has been 20% and 27% respectively, and we expect this tendency to continue given the increased emphasis the Government continues to place in related construction projects. Given AEL’s successful track record in capital expenditure projects of the Government, we believe that AEL would benefit from the proposed highways, expressways and bridge constructions. Few of such planned road development projects include northern expressway, eastern expressway, Colombo-Kandy highway, the extension of the southern expressway and the planned construction of 1,000 bridges in 2014. The 2014 Budget Proposal proposes to construct 50,000 new housing units in 15 locations in Colombo with the aim of providing accommodation for families living in temporary shelters. Further it has been proposed to construct 50,000 housing units in replacing sub-standard housing of families in the plantations sector and more provisions have been made to construct three new housing complexes in the greater Colombo area in addressing the housing issues of police officers working in Colombo. All these initiatives are to be implemented through local construction companies over the next 3 years and AEL is well set to benefit given the long standing relationship it has with the Government in capital expenditure projects.
5
Well Positioned to Enjoy Better Margins AEL is a leading piling contractor in Sri Lanka and it has rendered its piling services to Outer Circular Highway-Northern Section 1, which the Company claims to be the largest piling project to be undertaken thus far by a local construction company. The services of the piling division are obtained as required for the major construction projects enabling the Company to maintain high profit margins. Medical Faculty Building Complex at Sir John Kotelawala Defence University, housing construction projects in Dematagoda, Kotahena and Henamulla utilized the services of the piling division of the Company. Well identifying the pace of infrastructure development in the country and roads and highway projects in particular, AEL has invested in 4 asphalt mixing plants as asphalt is one of the major materials used in roads and highway projects. We believe the internal sourcing of such an integral component for construction activities would enable AEL to derive better margins. This ensures additional revenue for the Company as it caters to third party requirements as well. Further, strategic investments have already been undertaken in 3 crusher plants that produce crushed rock aggregates, the raw material for asphalt concrete and dense grade aggregates and 2 ready-mix concrete plants which form most of the integral components of the construction projects undertaken by the Company and this in our opinion would enable Access Engineering to generate better profit margins in the longer term while generating additional revenue. We believe that AEL should be able to achieve significant cost savings by being able to produce these raw materials in house. This also ensures additional revenue for the Company as AEL plans to cater to third party requirements. In our opinion, these endeavours should help AEL to achieve better profit margins.
Valuation Our DCF valuation suggests a value per share of LKR 26.80 which translates to an upside of 21.3% to the current price of LKR 22.10. Given the growth potential in the construction sector and the resultant prospects for Access Engineering, we expect AEL to trade at a forward P/E of 9x compared to the trailing P/E of 8.2x in FY2013 which leads to a value of LKR 27.60. This multiple based valuation also falls in line with the value suggested by our DCF valuation.
P/E Band Chart Actual Price LKR Px = 33.32 @ P/E of 14.00 Px = 28.56 @ P/E of 12.00 Px = 23.80 @P/E of 10.00 Px = 19.04 @ P/E of 8.00
35 30
20
Price (LKR)
25
15 10 5
31/12/2013
29/11/2013
31/10/2013
30/09/2013
30/08/2013
31/07/2013
28/06/2013
31/05/2013
30/04/2013
29/03/2013
28/02/2013
31/01/2013
31/12/2012
30/11/2012
31/10/2012
28/09/2012
31/08/2012
31/07/2012
29/06/2012
31/05/2012
30/04/2012
0
30/03/2012
Major components and raw matrerials for construction work are internally sourced, thus saving costs leading to to improved margins
Source: Bloomberg, Candor
6
Financial Review Building, other construction segment and vehicle sales segment gaining prominance.
Revenue of the Company grew by 100.5% in FY2012 and 89.9% in FY2013. Contribution of Highways Construction to total revenue dropped from 61.2% in the FY2012 to 43.1% in FY2013. Contribution of Building and Other Construction to total revenue has been experiencing an upward trend where it amounts to 19.5% of revenue in FY2012 and 26.7% in FY2013 and we expect this revenue segment to contribute more in the next 3 years. Revenue from Vehicle Sales and After Sales Services has amounted to 2.9% of the total revenue of the FY2012 and rendered a notable contribution of 16.6% in the preceding financial year and we expect this revenue segment to contribute more to the total revenue of the Group as the acquisition of the SML Frontier Private Limited would augment the earnings of Sathosa Motors PLC. For FY2014, we expect revenue to increase by 24.2% to LKR 17,260.
Table 01: Revenue break-down by key business segments
Table 02: Profitability indicators FY2010A - 2016F 35% 30%
8,000 7,000
LKR m
6,000
Highways, Water & Bridge Construction Building and Other Construction Vehicle Sales and Af ter Sales Services Sale of Construction related Material Other
25% 20%
5,000 4,000
15%
3,000
10%
2,000
ROE
5%
Net profit margin
1,000
0%
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
2010A
2011A
2012A
2013F
2014F
2015F
2016F
Source: Company Data, Cndor
Source: Company data, Candor
Source: Company data, Candor
We expect FY2014F EPS to reach LKR 3.07 cf. LKR 2.38 in FY2013.
During FY2013, earnings attributable to owners increased by 37.2% compared to 79.9% in FY2012 to LKR 2,378m. We expect earnings attributable to owners to increase by 28.9% to LKR 3,067m in FY2014 and Earnings per Share to reach LKR 3.07 cf. LKR 2.38 in FY2013.
Very low gearing and postiitve free cashflow should help increase shareholder wealth going forward.
AEL has virtually zero debt where in FY2012 the gearing stood at 0.1% and then dropped to 0.02% in the preceding financial year. In our opinion this leaves the Company with enormous room to obtain long term borrowing facilities and utilize such funding in initiatives that would further augment the shareholder wealth. The negative free cash flow recorded by AEL for FY2012 amounted LKR 1,007m which was then improved to a positive LKR 89m in FY2013. We expect net operating cash flow to improve by 75.3% YoY to LKR 2,281m and capital expenditure to reduce by 22.4% to LKR 940m compared to earlier recorded LKR 1,212m. Thus we expect a positive free cash flow of LKR 1,341 million for FY2014. We expect these free cash flows to be utilized by the Company in further value adding activities that would in turn increase the shareholder wealth in the longer term.
7
Profit & loss (LKR m) Year ended March Revenue Cost of sales Gross profit Net operating expenses EBIT Net interest (income)/expense Profit before tax Tax expense Net profit after tax Net profit attributable to equity holders EPS Recurring EPS
2012A 7,320 -5,200 2,121 189 1,931 102 2,033 -297 1,737 1,733 1.83 1.83
2013A 13,900 -10,839 3,061 628 2,433 239 2,672 -259 2,413 2,378 2.38 2.38
2014F 17,260 -13,547 3,712 742 2,970 685 3,654 -523 3,132 3,067 3.07 3.07
2015F 21,131 -16,694 4,438 983 3,455 346 3,801 -570 3,231 3,184 3.18 3.18
2016F 25,843 -20,416 5,427 1,202 4,225 426 4,651 -698 3,954 3,896 3.90 3.90
2012A
2013A
2014F
2015F
2016F
1,641 6,002 2,792 3,848 14,284
703 8,360 3,859 3,720 16,642
1,549 11,112 3,369 4,434 20,464
2,213 11,879 4,165 4,455 22,712
2,312 14,670 5,133 4,478 26,593
3,271 13 168 3,451
3,752 8 258 4,018
5,076 4 325 5,405
4,574 4 343 4,922
5,084 4 361 5,450
10,670 162 10,833
12,486 138 12,624
14,796 262 15,059
17,480 310 17,790
20,776 367 21,143
2012A
2013A
2014F
2015F
2016F
(%) (%) (%) (%) (X) (%) (%) (%)
100.5 61.2 52.2 26.1 122.9 14.6 23.1 20.9
89.9 46.3 30.0 17.4 7.9 9.7 20.5 18.7
24.2 49.2 29.0 16.9 156.0 14.3 22.5 18.4
22.4 -8.2 3.8 16.1 555.7 15.0 19.7 17.9
22.3 22.3 22.4 16.1 679.6 15.0 20.4 18.4
(LKR m) (LKR m) (%)
7,907 -1,629 0
11,739 -695 0.1
13,848 -1,544 0.0
16,429 -2,209 0.0
19,471 -2,308 0.0
LKR LKR LKR LKR
1.8 0.2 -1.0 10.7
2.4 0.5 0.1 12.5
3.1 0.5 1.3 14.8
3.2 0.5 0.8 17.5
3.9 0.6 0.3 20.8
(X) (X) (X) (%) (%)
14.6 11.7 2.50 0.6 -3.8
8.3 6.6 1.58 2.5 0.5
9.0 5.0 1.53 2.2 5.9
9.2 5.3 1.30 2.2 3.7
5.8 4.3 1.09 2.6 1.3
(LKR) (LKR)
Balance sheet (LKR m) Year ended March ASSETS Cash Other current assets Fixed assets Other non-current assets TOTAL ASSETS LIABILITIES Current liabilities Debt Other liabilities TOTAL LIABILITIES EQUITY SHAREHOLDERS' FUNDS Preferred capital & minorities TOTAL EQUITY
Key performance indicators Year ended March Return ratios Sales growth Operating EBITDA growth Normalized EPS growth EBIT margin Interest cover - EBIT Tax rate Return on equity ROCE Capital and Leverage Avg. capital employed Net debt (cash) Debt to equity Per share data Earnings per share Dividend per share Free cash flow per share Book value per share Valuation multiples P/E EV/EBITDA P/BV Dividend yield FCF yield Source: Company Data, Candor
8
Disclaimer: The report has been prepared by Candor Equities Limited (CEL). The information and opinions contained herein are based upon information obtained from sources believed to be reliable and made in good faith. Such information has not been independently verified and no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied is made as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only, and the description of any company or their securities mentioned herein is not intended to be complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. 9