USA
Martin Cornell
Vice-chairman, The Right Climate Stuff Research Team
Will increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide emitted from human activity reach a level that endangers human welfare and the health of the biosphere? The answer to this question has been the focus of The Right Climate Stuff research team (TRCS). Our conclusion? We find that it is highly unlikely that added carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will add more than 1.8 OC of warmth by the middle of the next century. This bounding of potential warming means that we do not have a rapidly developing climate problem requiring swift corrective action and destructive transformation of economies. This modest warming accompanying higher atmospheric levels of CO2 will continue the trend of the greening of our planet, for the benefit of the biosphere and human flourishing. Complex climate models designed to project the impact of added CO2 do not reflect reality, averaging a hot 2.5 OC over actual measurements. This distortion forms the basis of “what if” Integrated Assessment Model exercises, including the exploration of improbable extreme conditions. Unfortunately, the extreme RCP8.5 scenario has been mislabeled as “business as usual” and used to justify public policy; this despite its presumption of fossil-fuel combustion vastly beyond economically extractable reserves of coal, oil, and natural gas. Recognizing the need to ground warming projections with the empirical data, TRCS explored the impact of supply-side limits of fossil-fuel CO2 emissions projected from the reality base of historical warming from all causes. The result below projects an upper bound of 1.0 OC by the end of this century. The benefits of this modest warming together with CO2 fertilization of plants can be enjoyed by mankind while the transition is made to other abundant, affordable, and reliable energy sources such as nuclear energy.
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