Howard C. Hayden Pueblo West, CO
Warming from doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide will be hardly noticeable October 26, 2021 Sent to The Wall Street Journal Data published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that the greenhouse effect due to CO2 and other greenhouse gases causes 40 percent of the infrared radiation (heat radiation) from the surface of the earth to fail to reach outer space. That sentence, while perfectly true, is deceptive. From the beginning, IPCC’s ruminations have focused on that 40-percent fraction rather than the simpler and more physically direct approach finally taken (but not pursued) 31 years after the first IPCC report in 1990: the greenhouse effect is simply the numerical difference between the infrared emission at the surface and the infrared emission to outer space, both known quantities. IPCC says that the greenhouse effect amounts to 159 thermal watts per square meter, averaged over the surface of the planet. Doubling CO2 concentration, as may occur late in the 21st century, would add 3.7 watts per square meter, according to the IPCC. That “radiative forcing” (in IPCC jargon) would increase the greenhouse effect by a whopping 2.3 percent, and by itself would raise the surface temperature only 0.68 ºC (1.22 ºF). The 13-day COP 26 UN Climate Change Conference will take place in Glasgow starting on Hallowe’en, and political leaders from 121 nations will bloviate about how horrible the consequences will be if advanced nations continue to use fossil fuels. In case you need to know about Climate Smart Healthcare or Gender-Responsive Climate Finance, be sure to attend.
Howard C. Hayden Prof. Emeritus of Physics, UConn
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