Sea level Hysteria and distortions Terigi Ciccone. Updated October 29, 2021
Global warming alarmists continue sounding alarms. Politicians, actors, and "climate activists" warn us regularly that meltwater from massive ice sheets in the Antarctic and Greenland, the Arctic Sea ice, and glaciers around the world will soon drown our coastal towns and cities, and the process will become "irreversible." Graphic photoshopped pictures of New York skyscrapers show water reaching many upper floors. Miami is shown vanishing under the sea. The Solomon Islands will disappear under the sea. i All this, as a result of increased human-made CO2, is warming the Earth and melting the ice. All this is to gain support for their plan to stop burning fossil fuels and subjugate us to rely on fickle wind and solar energy for our lives and livelihoods. And since their energy densities are so weak, so diluted, they cannot sustain 7 billion lives on Earth. Rationing of this limited, unreliable, and intermittent solar and wind energy will necessitate rationing of lives and quality of life.
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Rising Seas Will Erase More Cities by 2050, New Research Shows. NYT 29 Oct 2016 Rising seas are a much bigger danger than experts thought WAPO 21 Oct 2019 Rising Waters: How NASA is Monitoring Sea Level Rise. www.nasa.gov › specials › sea-levelrise-2020 In prep for COP26, UN chief cries 'code red' for humanity: MSN News Oct 29, 2021
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But fundamental data, observations, and established physical laws do not support this hysteria of human-made CO2 global warming. In this article, we will closely examine this relationship and answer three fundamental questions. First, we seek to identify which is the cause and which is the effect. Secondly, we quantify and contextualize the impacts of this sea-level rise on humanity and all life on 1
Earth. Lastly, answer the question, if it is "bad" for humanity and all life on Earth, what can be done to fix this "problem."
Historical perspective. In Figure-1, we see the sea level rise as the Earth emerges from the last ice age, starting almost 20,000 years ago.ii As the Earth warmed, unimaginable cubic miles of ice sheets melted worldwide, and the ice melt filled the oceans. In as little as about 10,000 years, an eye-blink in geological terms, ocean levels rose by almost 400 feet. However, note the asymptotic rise reached its upper limit about seven to eight thousand years ago, adding a bit more and a little less over the last few thousand years. This provides powerful evidence of the strong relationship between global Temperatures and sea levels. In Figure 2, we see global temperatures Figure-2 over the last 2,000-years.iii Here we see global temperatures going up, as in the Medieval warming, but then taking a dramatic cooling trend that lasted about 700-years. And it took the Earth more than 400 years to recover to the heathy temperature we have today. Also, note the red arrow showing the so-called "industrial year – 1750. It was during this Little ice age period, making for a very low temperature as the base reference year. Whys would anybody want to return to the temperature of that time. That was a time when an estimated 1/3rd of the world's population starved to death because of multi-year crop failures due to the cold weather.
The data and evidence. Looking at Figure-3,iv we notice data from over the last 140 years. It's also worth noting that this reference year of 1880 is seen as the end of the Dalton Minimum, another cold period seen by the Green Arrow in Figure-2. Officially 1880 is seen as the end of the Little Ice age when the oceans were 2
much colder than today. Since then, the seas rose by only about Nine inches, an annual rise equal to the thickness of several pieces of paper.
Figure-3A
Figure-3
Comparing Figure - 3 and Figure - 3A, we see the close relationship between the rise in ocean level and the increase in known ocean temperatures. When we consider water's physical properties in Figure-4,v we see the volume of water increases with a temperature rise. This data proves that a substantial portion of the sea level is attributable to the thermal expansion of water. When we deal with immeasurable gazillion tons of water in the oceans, even a slight temperature rise can cause a measurable ocean level. The incorrect assertion is that the increased CO2 is warming the planet, melting of polar ice, ice sheets, and glaciers are the primary cause of the ocean level rise. The UN/IPCC even contradicts this. In its Fifth Assessment Report stated: "Water volume rises with temperature because of thermal expansion—another primary driver of sea-level rise." vi There are differing positions on the causes of sea-level rise because estimating the many parameters involved is not an exact science. There are too many unknowns, including the volume of the Earth's water, its temperatures, its densities, the influence of the many ocean bottom volcanic and tectonic events, to name a few. For example, it is estimated that 85% of all volcanic and tectonic activities are found in the deepest oceans. Many new papers are emerging and appear to demonstrate that these undersea volcanic activities have a significant impact on heating the deep ocean watersvii and can have a notable effect on climate change.viii However, the margin of errors in these assumptions results in wildly inaccurate discrepancies. Can melting sea ice cause ocean levels to rise? "No" is the simple answer. In grade school, we learned 90 percent of an iceberg or any floating ice is below the waterline while 10 percent is above the water. This happens because when water starts to freeze, it expands, becoming about 10% less dense and 3
floats upon the water that made it up. When the ice melts back into the water, it shrinks by the same 10 percent. So, when sea ice melts, the 10 percent floating above the water combines with the 90 percent under the water, occupying the same original water volume. You can check this out next time you have a glass of ice and water. Mark the water level on the glass with a grease pencil and then wait till all the ice is melted, and you will find the water level remains at the grease mark line. •
What about the melting of the land ice sheets and glaciers? The Antarctic ix contains about 90 percent of the world's ice mass and is the 800-pound gorilla in the room. About 44 percent of that Antarctic ice is in the ice shelves (that's ice floating or anchored at the ocean bottom. They are found along the coastal edges), mainly in the northwest western regions of the Pacific Ocean. More than 50 percent of the Antarctic sheet is land-based and can be several miles thick. Historical data confirms that there are few days per year when the temperature is above freezing, only a few hours per day and only along the coast. Consequentially little or no continental Antarctic ice ever reaches the oceans. During bright and sunny days, a small amount of the continental and shoreline ice surface is destroyed by infrared rays from the sun. But this ice does not melt into the water; rather, it sublimates directly into water vapor. Sublimation means that the ice goes directly from the solid to the gaseous phase (water vapor) without going through the liquid phase. x When the sublimated water vapor reaches the cold Antarctic air, the vast majority of it quickly turns to snow and falls back on the ice sheets. The winds may blow only a tiny amount over the Antarctic ocean. Nearly zero goes into the oceans as water.
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Coastal Antarctic ice, dramatized with films, photos, and articles in newspapers and TV, shows large ice sheets tumbling into the ocean. These dramatic falling cliffs are not caused by global warming. Instead, the melting is occurring at the water level by the warmed Pacific Ocean. Here the water splashes and melts and gouges caverns into the ice, forming large ice shelves or overhangs. This process continues until the overhang's weight is big enough to cause the overhung ice to break and tumble off. That is when we get the stunning pictures. So yes, some of this ice will melt into the oceans and cause some water levels to rise, but the volume is unmeasurably small.
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Recent discoveries reveal that many massive volcanoes have been quietly erupting and melting the ice sheets and glaciers that have been covering them up. Recent findings indicate that 91 active sub-glacial volcanoes have been found under the coastal ice sheets and ice shelves on the northwestern part of Antarctica.xi These volcanoes also contributed to the rise of CO2 unseen and unaccounted for until very recently.xii
NASAxiii published a study on October 30, 2015, saying that Antarctica is accumulating ice at a rate of about 112 billion tons per year. It has already replaced all the ice that melted in the previous several decades. Another NASA study reports an increase in the rate of Antarctic snow accumulation. Currently, enough continental ice is accumulating to outweigh the losses caused by its shrinking coastal glaciers. Credits: Jay Zwally, Journal of Glaciology.xiv
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Yes, there was substantial glacial melting in Greenland, Alaska, and other northern hemisphere locations, which added some waters to the oceans during the warming of the past several decades. However, recently many active volcanoes have been found under the Greenland ice sheet. xv There is significant uncertainty about how much of these ice sheet melting is attributable to these sub-glacial volcanoes. However, like the Alps, typical land glaciers tend to melt and then increase in about twenty-year cycles, depending on the local conditions.xvi Many of these glaciers are now growing at a significant rate, like the famed Jakobshavn glacier in Greenland.xvii A world scorecard has been kept that shows which glaciers are melting and which are growing. But the long-term batting average seems to be about half growing and half shrinking. Here's an amusing article showing the national parks service changing signs "Glacier National Park removes signs predicting glaciers will be gone by 2020.xviii Besides water temperature, other factors need to be accounted for when saying the ocean level is rising or falling. For example, at the local level, the ocean can appear to "increase" or "decrease" due to changes in the land caused by land settling, such as we see in downtown Boston, where the landfill of 150 years agoxix keeps on settling, giving the appearance that the ocean is rising. At the local level, there's also the sedimentationxx effect. So, for example, the sand and soil of the Mississippi valley are continuously eroding and are carried into the streams, then rivers, the Mississippi, and finally to the Gulf of Mexico.xxi Another significant factor is the movement of the Earth's tectonic plates. The Earth's crust floats on top of molten lava and is about eighteen miles thick. But the crust is not a solid piece. It's made up of "plates," which keep floating and moving around. For example, unpleasant things start to happen when two plates meet, like at the infamous San Andreas fault line. They meet head-on, in India-Nepal-China, where the tectonic plate of the Indian subcontinent crashes into the massive Asian continent. There it meets incredible resistance and Voila! Mount Everest and K2, and the other mountains and countryside keep growing about half an inch per year. One last item is "the spring back effect." During the last ice age, parts of North America, Europe, and Asia were covered by ice as much as one mile thick or more. It sucked so much water out of the oceans that it created a land bridge from Asia to North America. The weight of this massive ice crushed and compressed the Earth for tens of thousands of years. But, like a spring, the land is still recovering from the disappearance of the glacial mass and slowly expanding and springing back up. While scientists try to figure out if the seas are rising or falling, one or two millimeters per year, they have to sort out all of these factors. Besides, they also have to contend that tidal gauges also get banged around by novice boat captains like me. Fortunately, more reliable satellite data of the last forty years 5
confirms this rise of about one to two millimeters per year before any complex adjustments are made. The journal Nature, January 2019,xxii did an excellent job discussing these adjustments in detail. …………………………..
In figure 3A, we notice a temperature rise of about 1.5 C, as validated by satellite temperature records since 1979, when a maximum temperature was reached. Then starting in 2000, temperatures have been steadily declining due to the weakened solar magnetic activities. The satellite temperature record is the most accurate and revised monthly from this site https://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-globaltemperatures/. ………………………………… In Figure-3, we see a more detailed relationship between CO2 and global temperatures. Here we see that temperature changes always precede changes in CO2. So the changes in temperature come first
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THE BOTTOM LINE: CLIMATE CHANGE ACTIVISTS GROSSLY DISTORT AND EXAGGERATE THE EFFECT OF HUMANKIND ON SEA LEVEL. References. i
https://weather.com/science/environment/news/solomon-islands-disappearing
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https://images.search.yahoo.com/search/images?p=image+sea+level+rise+the+last+11%2C000+years+image&fr=mcafee&type=E21 1US105G0&imgurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.weathertrends360.com%2FBlog%2FUploads%2F2015%2F10%2FSEA4.png#id=3&iurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.climatewarmingcentral.com%2Fimages%2Fsea_level_rise.jpg&action=click iii
https://images.search.yahoo.com/search/images;_ylt=AwrEzNTZTXxh84wAM8CJzbkF;_ylu=c2VjA3NlYXJjaARzbGsDYnV0dG9u;_ylc=X 1MDOTYwNjI4NTcEX3IDMgRhY3RuA2NsawRjc3JjcHZpZANPbnUweWpFd0xqTHgyMTBMWGQwekF3bkpNall3TVFBQUFBRDY2ZHJiBGZ yA21jYWZlZQRmcjIDc2EtZ3AEZ3ByaWQDUEdaWU1rSGNRWm14RUptVnJBdms2QQRuX3N1Z2cDMARvcmlnaW4DaW1hZ2VzLnNlYXJj aC55YWhvby5jb20EcG9zAzAEcHFzdHIDBHBxc3RybAMEcXN0cmwDNDkEcXVlcnkDZ2xvYmFsJTIwdGVtcGVyYXR1cmVzJTIwdGhlJTIwbG FzdCUyMDIwMDAlMjB5ZWFycwR0X3N0bXADMTYzNTUzNjYwMg-?p=global+temperatures+the+last+2000+years&fr=mcafee&fr2=sb-top-images.search&ei=UTF8&x=wrt&type=E211US105G0#id=2&iurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.drroyspencer.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2000-years-ofglobal-temperature.jpg&action=click iv https://sealevel.nasa.gov/understanding-sea-level/global-sea-level/thermal-expansion v
Thermal Expansion | Global Sea Level –NASA Sea Level …. https://sealevel.nasa.gov/understanding-sea-level/global-sea-
level/thermal-expansion vi
https://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/water-specific-volume-weight-d_661.html
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You Tube video, Volcanoes rule climate change. YouTube Peter Ward https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPH7HPaNHTg&t=1922s
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Seafloor Volcano Pulses May Alter Climate. February 5, 2015. https://www.earth.columbia.edu/articles/view/3231
NASA Sea Level Change Portal: Thermal Expansion. https://sealevel.nasa.gov/understanding-sea-level/global-sea-level/thermalexpansion ix
2.2: The States of Matter –Chemistry LibreTexts. https://chem.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/Introductory_Chemistry/Book percent3A_Introductory_Chemistry_Online!_(Young)/02 percent3A_The_Physical_and_Chemical_Properties_of_Matter/2.2 percent3A_The_States_of_Matter x
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https://www.indiatimes.com/technology/science-and-future/scientists-discover-91-volcanoes-below-the-surface-of-antarctic-icesheet-327765.html xii
Discovery of Massive Volcanic CO2 Emissions Puts Damper on Global Warming Theory
http://www.plateclimatology.com/discovery-of-massive-volcanic-co2-emissions-puts-damper-on-global-warming-theory
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xiii
https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2361/study-mass-gains-of-antarctic-ice-sheet-greater-than-losses/
xiv
Study: Mass gains of Antarctic ice sheet greater than …. https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2361/study-mass-gains-of-antarctic-ice-
sheet-greater-than-losses/ xv
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/hot-rock-rising-under-central-greenland-is-melting-the-ice-from-below/arBB1bJzv0 xvi
Study: Mass gains of Antarctic ice sheet greater than …. https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2361/study-mass-gains-of-antarctic-ice-
sheet-greater-than-losses/ xvii
https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2019/03/26/climate-change-greenland-glacier-growing-but-its-only-temporaryjakobshavn/3275098002/ xviii
https://nypost.com/2020/01/09/glacier-national-park-removes-signs-predicting-glaciers-will-be-gone-by-2020/
xix
https://historyofmassachusetts.org/how-boston-lost-its-hills/
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Quantifying uncertainties of sandy shoreline change projections as sea level rises, January 10, 019.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-37017-4 xxi
https://www.earthmagazine.org/article/mississippi-delta-drowning
xxii
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-37017-4
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