Reasons for the Increase in Global Mean Temperature and Climate Change The Nile Climate Engine (NiCE) (Revised Nov. 2021)
Conor McMenemie. Ratho Station. Scotland. mcmenemieconor@hotmail.com
“ . . . . . simple, basic meteorology” Dr Alan Gadian. Professor of Dynamical Meteorology. University of Leeds
“. . . . . . . . an absolute Nobel Prize winner”. Tom Wysmuller. NASA (retd.)
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Introduction Abstract The River Nile Flood African Easterly Waves The Summer Sea Hurricanes and Named Storms Global Warming and Climate Change Conclusion
Aswan Dam facts Sources
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1 Introduction The Nile Climate Engine was a simple climatic chain reaction. The annual River Nile flood in Egypt had created for millions of years from July to October, what was effectively a 26,000 square kilometre, warm, shallow, opaque evaporative surface in the Sahara Desert. The moisture evaporated from this Lake Egypt had every few days created an atmospheric disturbance 2,000 kilometres south over the Ethiopian Highlands. The ensuing Kiremt rainfall events were driven westwards evolving into African Easterly Waves (AEWs). The AEW cloud mass reflected incoming solar energy away from the oceans below. The oceans became warmer. Humans placing dams on the first cataract of the Nile at Aswan from 1902 inadvertently altered the flood dynamics. Then from 1964 the flood was removed due to the construction of the Aswan High Dam. These good intended engineering marvel unwittingly altering the flood evaporative component, thus Equatorial Atlantic temperatures, due to the ensuing reduction in AEW cloud cover. The conditions generally referred to as Global Warming and Climate Change are predominantly the result of human interference in this Nile Climate Engine.
All that follows in this document is background material produced from rendering current and historic datasets. This integrated with known meteorological and oceanic conditions.
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Abstract
The reasons for the increase in Global Mean Temperature and Climate Change is that we had inadvertently altered then removed a previously unrecognised weather system. This unrecognised meteorological chain reaction, which will be referred to here as the Nile Climate Engine (NiCE), had been a precursor to the meso scale African Easterly Wave weather system. The Nile Climate Engine chain reaction: For millions of years the July to October lower Nile flood in Egypt would evaporate upwards of 4,000 cubic meters of moisture per second. ----Approximately every three days this moisture flux, veering east and west as it was pulled south by the northern Hadley Cell, had risen onto the Ethiopian Highlands to disrupt the west-flowing monsoon, creating the Kiremt atmospheric disturbance. These Kiremts then carried west by the trade winds becoming organised into AEWs. ----A dam complex on the Egyptian Nile at Aswan from 1902 acted as a filter for semi buoyant silt carried by the July to October flood. This dam reduced both the flood timeframe and surface heat budget, reducing evaporation. ----Two subsequent enlargements of the dam (1907-12. 1929-33) were superseded by the Aswan High Dam (1959-64), which completely stopped the flood, thus its evaporative component. This significantly reducing the frequency of the Kiremt/AEW succession. ----Having drifted westwards across the Sahel, the AEWs would then create USA sized solar reflective marine stratocumulus cloudscapes over predominantly the Equatorial Atlantic. These clouds reflected incoming solar energy away from the ocean surface. ----The dam induced reduction in AEW cloud exposed the oceans to additional solar energy, making the oceans warmer, over a region which will be referred to here as the 'Summer Sea'. The same yet lesser heating mechanism can be viewed taking place in the Pacific arena. ----The normal ocean currents now circulate this additional heat, dissipating some into the atmosphere as well as degrading the polar ice mass. (The initial abrupt increase in ocean heat transport undermined pre-existing ice shelves, causing accelerated carving, with the subsequent floating ice mass initially providing a false impression of a cooling environment). ----Much of the warming, climate change and extreme events attributed to industrial emissions are a misdiagnosis of the anthropogenic degradation of the Kiremt/AEW system. The embargo against emissions will have zero effect on the global mean temperature and climate. ----Dams are one of the most useful tools humans have created, yet they embody unforeseen positive and negative aspects. The Aswan complex is significant in its large-scale effects, given high evaporation rate from the pre 1900 flood, sensitivity of the Kiremt/AEW system and the removal of very large solar reflective cloud cover, ensuring the oceans become warmer. ----The effects of altering this chain reaction are still evolving.
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The River Nile Flood
The River Nile begins to collect water from equatorial Africa, bringing it northwards to the eastern Mediterranean. Between July and October for millions of years the river would become engorged, bursting its banks in Egypt due to a deluge of kiremt rainfall which had flowed down the Atbara and Blue Nile rivers from the Ethiopian Highlands more than a month earlier (fig 1). Figure 1
The White Nile flowing from the equatorial region remains relatively constant throughout the year. It is joined at Khartoum in Sudan by the Blue Nile then later by the Atbara. The majority of the flood passing through Aswan on the Main Nile is comprised of river flow from the Ethiopian Highlands. The Resultant floods covered about 26,000 square kilometres (10,000 mi²) with warm, fresh, opaque, shallow water, given modern rates for lakes in the same region, would evaporate upwards of 13.5 mm per day (0.5’’) or 0.35 kmᶾ per day. This evaporative component changed dramatically due to the introduction of the Aswan Low Dam in 1902, enlarged from 1907 to 1912, then again 1929 to 1933. Superseded from 1964 with the Aswan High Dam, which stored all of the flood in its reservoir, Lake Nasser (fig 2). Figure 2
Synchronously with the introduction of the Aswan Low and High Dams, there is a reduction in the Main Nile flow through Aswan. Yet the flow into Aswan also reduces due to a corresponding reduction in the Blue Nile and Atbara flow from the Ethiopian Highlands. The original dams had the dual effect of altering the timeframe of the flood but they also slowed down the river flow so that a very significant amount of the suspended particles in the water sunk to the bottom of the reservoir. Thus, solar energy which had been concentrated near the flood surface due to the suspended material before dam construction, was then distributed more evenly through the water Page 5 of 13
column. This reduced the surface temperature and its contribution to evaporation. From 1964 the flood being stored in the deeper and smaller surfaced Lake Nasser (5.250 km²) reduced the evaporative component even further. Unforeseen at the time was that the 4,000 mᶾ/s (4 tons of) moisture was drawn southwards by the Northern Hadley Cell (fig 3), when every few days would be pulled onto the Ethiopian Highlands, where it created an atmospheric disturbance with the west flowing monsoon. The resultant kiremt deluge contributing to the same torrent flowing down the Blue Nile and Atbara, to contribute to the Lower Nile flood. Thus, unwittingly humans had interfered with one of the planet’s major weather systems by reducing one of the moisture streams which acted as a precursor to the kiremt system. Figure 3
Pre 1902 moisture flux from the Lower Nile flood plain has been integrated into the modern-day assessment of ‘Moisture Import into the Ethiopian Highlands [Viste and Sorteberg 2013]. This helps explain the moisture connect between the lower flood and its kiremt rainfall source on the Ethiopian Highlands. Why the Blue Nile and Atbara flow in fig 2 corresponds to the Nile flow at Aswan.
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African Easterly Waves
The kiremt system, being at the higher altitudes of the Ethiopian Highlands then get influenced by the Trade Winds which push the kiremts westwards across Sub Saharan Africa (the Sahel), where they become organised into African Easterly Waves (AEWs) (fig 4). Figure 4
African Easterly Waves (AEWs) ‘A type of atmospheric trough, an elongated area of relatively low air pressure, oriented north to south, which moves from east to west across the tropics, causing areas of cloudiness and thunderstorms’: Wikipedia This figure 4 satellite image of AEWs provides some clarity to the westward migration of this system, from source over the Ethiopian Highlands to it spanning over the Equatorial Atlantic a few days later. Page 6 of 13
There is a shortage of reliable data to be able to adequately demonstrate how condition changed at the start of the last century, despite the apparent sudden drop in kiremt rainfall as shown by the reduced Blue Nile and Atbara River flow. But the rainfall across the Sahel covering the twenty years before and after the introduction of the Aswan High Dam, does provide evidence of a shocking real-life tragedy for those living there (fig 5). Figure 5
From a reasonably consistent 20 years of rainfall across Sub Saharan Africa (the Sahel), there followed from the mid-1960s a sudden sequential reduction across more than 10 degrees of latitude. This helps define the expansion of the desert over the past century. The sudden sequential reduction in rainfall westwards across the Sub-Saharan continent ensured the die-off of vegetation, wildlife and people. This contributed to the 750,000 deaths in the 1984/5 Ethiopian famine. This data helps to define the problem as a reduction in the frequency of the AEWs. Thus, what had been known as the growth of the desert, is better described as the retreat of the flora. Conversely, Ghana began to operate its Akosombo dam on the Volta River from 1965. Whilst the rest of the sub continent was subjected to varying degrees of drought, rainfall appeared to increase in a number of sites to the west, downwind of its reservoir. CM
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The Summer Sea
Once the AEWs leave the West African coast they form USA sized marine stratocumulus cloudscapes. These had been reflecting incoming solar energy (heat) away from the ocean surface, providing a cooling effect (fig 6). Figure 6
Image of an AEW marine stratocumulus cloud formation passing westward from the Sahel across the equatorial Atlantic. Page 7 of 13
Given the reduction in cloud cover, there forms a corresponding increase in sea surface temperature (SST) in respect to timeframe, location, magnitude and vector of the additional applied solar energy. This area has been named the Summer Sea and can be defined by rendering the relevant sea surface temperature data (HadSST1 dataset). It is most profound from July to October, covering an area roughly 10,500,000 km², from the equator to 20° north. Becoming more profound over the decades since the 1960s, it can be seen to influence events across the ismuth into the Pacific arena. (fig 7). Figure 7
Decal August Summer Sea SST Anomaly
Consistent with the reduction in AEW cloud cover is the corresponding increase in SST due to the ocean absorbing additional solar energy. The basics of the earth being able to maintain a reasonable consistent temperature is the duopoly of having an insulating atmosphere, combined with a very large mass of water which can absorb solar heat in the equatorial regions, which is then circulated pole-wards. Some of this heat dissipates into the atmosphere. An example of this is Moscow and Edinburgh being the same distance from the equator, yet the Atlantic releasing heat during winter ensures Edinburgh’s average temperature is 13°C less cold than Moscow. If the oceans absorb more heat at the equator, this will result in a corresponding warmer atmosphere. It will also ensure a reduction in the polar ice mass. The temperature signal for the Summer Sea is rendered from taking SST readings of the Canary Current as it flows south from the Saharan coast at 23° north, to the Summer Sea region affected by AEW cloud cover, at 17° north (fig 8). Figure 8
Summer Sea temperature anomaly derived using 23°N to 17°N. Since the surface temperature from the north Atlantic varies, this ensures that the anomaly data relates only to the temperature difference between these two points, where the main variable is that of cloud cover, thus insolation. Given that we are challenged by the current observation that global mean temperature in increasing and the ice mass is reducing, it becomes obvious to compare this Summer Sea temperature signal to those defined as representative of the global mean temperature. This given that the additional clear sky’s caused by the reduced cloud cover over the Summer Sea can increase the planetary heat budget Page 8 of 13
by up to 10,500,000,000,000,000 watts (10.5 PWs). It can be viewed in figure 9, there is a very high degree of compatibility between the published Global Warming indices from these world-renowned scientific institutions, and the observed additional heating of the Summer Sea. The Summer Sea event, which not only diminished polar ice packs and warms the atmosphere, but also displaces the named storms and hurricanes which afflict the Caribbean and US eastern seaboard. Figure 9
The 23°N to 17°N Canary Current (Summer Sea) anomaly is compared to published global warming indices. This figure 9 chart provides an incongruity; the Canary Current exhibits an increase around 1900 to 1910, with an apparent reduction in global mean temperature. Yet from 1940 to 1950 all indices follow the same signal. Given the nature of ocean heat transport, dynamics of polar ice, it’s calving and subsequent effects of varying amounts of floating ice upon both ocean surface and atmospheric temperatures, it is prudent to consider that the observed 1900 to 1910 cooling may be the result of warmer ocean heat transport from the equatorial regions. Under normal or pre 1900 natural circumstances there had been vast stores of negative energy in the form of massive ice packs and ice shelves. Warmer water flowing into their domain accelerates the rate of calving of the most vulnerable shelves and packs. Effectively covering part of the ocean surface with crushed ice, producing a corresponding reduction in sea surface and atmospheric temperatures. But by 1940 this cooling reserve of vulnerable ice had been depleted; thus, sea surface and atmospheric temperatures follow the Summer Sea, AEW, Kiremt signal fig 10). It may yet prove to be the case that those unlucky transatlantic passengers on the Titanic were some of the first victims of global warming. By 1912 there were sufficient ice packs at the latitudes of London and New York to force transatlantic shipping to stop engines at night. Figure 10
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Pre 1900 the polar ice mass was far greater and would calve at a regular pace. Some portions of the ice shelves more prone to calving due to fissures, crevasses or cracks in the ice formations. An abrupt increase in ocean current temperatures would accelerate the calving of these vulnerable portions. Once they have all broken away from the ice shelves, the rate of calving slows down.
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Hurricanes and Named Storms
Hurricanes and named Storms form in the Summer Sea region of the equatorial Atlantic (fig 11). Become energized by drawing heat from the ocean surface. As shown previously where the Summer Sea has exhibited this anthropogenic heating event, this allows for such extreme events to manifest themselves earlier and further east than would have happened under the natural pre 1900 conditions. This had increased the incidence of both the storms and hurricanes spinning northwards up the central Atlantic, with far fewer making landfall in the Caribbean and US mainland. Figure 11
Hurricane Tracks. Source: NOAA Although there has been greater recognition and news coverage of such events, the reality had been that the Summer Sea has provided some respite to these costal populations. In a bid to emphasise the concerns about the evolving Global Warming and Climate Change situation, certain aspects of these real-life events have been highlighted, with other just as relevant pieces of information subdued. The obvious example being the dollar value of damage and size of populations afflicted by these events, whilst side-lining that the value and size of those populations had both increased.
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Global Warming and Climate Change
The conditions currently referred to as Global Warming (GW) and Climate Change (CC) feature predominantly the additional heating of the oceans, which has a profound bias to the middle Atlantic, as can be demonstrated form this research into the ‘footprint’ of the observed warming (fig 12). Page 10 of 13
Figure 12
The concentration of the additional GW heat being in the oceans, highly disproportionate to the middle Atlantic, helps narrow down the search for the real cause of this anomaly. Although there has been a great deal of emphasis upon the warming atmosphere, yet a 1 degree centigrade increase in water temperature requires 3,250 times more energy to achieve than increasing the same volume of air by the same amount. Also, as has been established and is a basic foundation of climate science, is that oceanic heat dissipates into the atmosphere. If there is more ocean heat, then more heat dissipates into the atmosphere. Similarly, the temperature and mass of polar ice is very much determined by the temperature of the ocean currents transporting the absorbed solar energy from the equatorial regions north and south towards the poles. Climate Change, which might be described as the medium to long term change in weather systems, be it local, regional or global, can be applied to the aforementioned alteration to the NiCE kiremt – AEW chain reaction. This anthropogenic effect directly encompasses over one third of the planet’s equator, altering deserts, rainfall regimes, hurricane displacement, polar ice mass as well as the amount of heat dissipating into the atmosphere from the oceans. Concurrently the NiCE Summer Sea temperature gradient equating to the accepted Global Warming signal, yet only being produced by a reduction in the cloud cover above. Thus, like a rock thrown into a pond, the ripples from the original splash carry the effects much farther, yet can still be identifiable as being produced by the rock. On the global scale the rippling after effects of the alteration to the NiCE progression, through the agency of both ocean and air currents provides us with a reliable diagnosis of the conditions known as Global Warming and Climate Change.
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Conclusion
The conditions referred to as Global Warming and Climate Change are predominantly the result of human interference into a previously unrecognised, minor, localised, seasonal weather system. Given the fact that this Nile Climate Engine had been a precursor to one of the planet’s major weather systems, African Easterly Waves. Given the subsequent effects of AEW variability on Sub Saharan Africa, equatorial cloud mass, applied solar forcing to the equatorial oceans, ocean heat transport, hurricane development, atmospheric temperatures and polar ice mass. What had innocently started out as an ambitious engineering project with the construction of the Aswan Dam complex on the Nile, turned out to be the first domino in an almost global cascade. This situation confused further due to the ambitions of many to address what is being referred to as the Climate Crisis, by not just placing an embargo on the supposed evils of industrial and fossil fuel emissions. But also, by condemning any valid research which strays from that perspective. Reducing carbon emissions will have no effect upon fixing the AEW system or it’s downstream effects. Conversely, applying even modest financial and technical resources into investigating the exact conditions relating to keremt-AEW formation, should promote a relatively cheap and simple engineering solution to this global issue. For example strategically diverting flow from the rivers Page 11 of 13
Gash and Atbara into shallow evaporation lakes in the Kassala region of Northern Sudan. Such an action should replicate the pre 1900 Lower Nile flood evaporative component, which when pulled southward onto the Ethiopian Highlands, would initiate a keremt event, resulting in greater water supply for Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt. This would also increase rainfall across the Sahel and cloud cover over the Summer Sea.
Aswan Dam facts: 1898 Coffer dam built to allow for dynamiting of 1st cataract and Aswan 'low' Dam construction. 1902 Aswan low dam opened. This operated as a dam/irrigation barrage. This involved allowing early flood waters to flush out the accumulated sediment from the previous year, then storing the latter part of the flood in its 5 kmᶾ reservoir. 1907/12 Low dam enlarged. 1929/33 Low dam enlarged again and converted to hydro operation. Hydro operation tried to maintain as high a level of water in the reservoir to provide a maximum 'head' to power the generators, yet still maintain a high flow through rate during the July to October flood season. 1946 Change in operational procedures due to near catastrophic failure of the dam due to excessive water levels in the reservoir. 1960 New Aswan High Dam (AHD) begins construction. The river Nile at Aswan is allowed to flow at almost its natural rate for the first time since 1898. 1964 Lake Nasser behind the AHD begins to fill. 1971 Lake Nasser filled. The Ocean’s Role in Continental Climate Variability and Change Dietmar Dommenget1 AMS. 15 Sep 2009 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2778.1 World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0–2000 m), 1955–2010 S. Levitus,J. I. Antonov,T. P. Boyer,O. K. Baranova,H. E. Garcia,R. A. Locarnini,A. V. Reagan,D. Seidov,E. S. Yarosh,M. M. Zweng Geophysical Research LettersVolume 39, Issue 10. Oceans 17 May 2012 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051106
Mishonov,J. R.
Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature data set (HadISST) Rayner, N. A.; Parker, D. E.; Horton, E. B.; Folland, C. K.; Alexander, L. V.; Rowell, D. P.; Kent, E. C.; Kaplan, A. (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century J. Geophys. Res.Vol. 108, No. D14, 4407 10.1029/2002JD002670 "The Canary Current." Ocean Surface Currents. Joanna Gyory, Arthur J. Mariano, Edward H. Ryan.(). https://oceancurrents.rsmas.miami.edu/atlantic/canary.html. GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius GISS base period: 1951-1980 sources: GHCN-v4 1880-03/2021 + SST: ERSST v5 1880-03/2021 sources: GHCN-v4 1880-03/2021 + SST: ERSST v5 1880-03/2021 https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
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Climatic Research Unit (University of East Anglia) and Met Office. 1961/90 MEAN https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/HadCRUT5.0Analysis_gl.txt Global Land and Ocean Temperature Anomalies. NOAA 1971–2000 monthly Degrees Celsius. Base Period: 1901-2000 https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/anomalies.php#anomalies The Berkeley Earth Land/Ocean Temperature. Berkeley Earth Rohde, R. A. and Hausfather, Z.: Record, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3469�3479, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3469-2020, 2020. Introduction to Oceanography Paul Webb https://rwu.pressbooks.pub/webboceanography/chapter/6-5-light/ Dundee Satellite Receiving Station.
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