Senate

Controlling the Upper Chamber: How Democrats and Republicans can Secure the Senate

By Quinn Bunke

The United States Senate consists of 100 Seats, two from each of the 50 states. In each election cycle, Democrats and Republicans attempt to tilt the balance of power in the upper chamber. In recent history, the division of seats in the Senate has been nearly equal, with the current makeup consisting of 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. In 2020, there are 35 seats up for grabs, 25 of which are currently held by the GOP.122 With the Democrats looking to win the 3 or 4 seats that they need to take control of the Senate, there are a few key races to watch.

In Colorado, incumbent Republican Senator Cory Gardner is running ads touting his success as an across-the-aisle negotiator who has worked with Democrats to find common ground on environmental legislation.123 He is also occupying his constituent’s television sets with messages from former Democratic President John F. Kennedy. 124 This is part of a struggle as old as American politics: trying to win a seat through ticket-splitters. This is looking increasingly less likely for Gardner, as he is running in a state that President Trump lost by five points in 2016 and is set to lose by at least 15 points this year.125 It is looking like former Democratic Governor of Colorado John Hickenlooper is set to occupy this seat for the next six years.

In Arizona, Republican Senator Martha McSally is also trying to finesse the difficult balance of staying true to the incumbent Republican president, while also distancing herself from him enough to win over moderate voters who have soured on him. McSally is facing former NASA astronaut Mark Kelly in a race that is looking increasingly like the incumbent will lose, with recent polls indicating that Kelly has a commanding 10-point lead.126 It is very likely that however this race swings in the presidential column will also determine who will capture this Senate seat. As of now, the advantage is with Biden and Kelly.

The Republican’s best opportunity to flip a Senate seat appears to be in Alabama, where incumbent Democrat Senator Doug Jones is looking likely to lose his seat to Republican challenger Tommy Tuberville. Alabama has stayed true to its partisan lean in polls leading up to this year’s race, as President Trump maintains a lead of better than 15 points.127 This will heavily favour Tuberville, in spite of the fact that he is being outspent and out fundraised by the Democratic incumbent.128

Other than in Alabama, opportunities for the Republicans to steal a seat currently held by a Democrat appear to be slim to none. With Colorado and Arizona appearing to be

122 270toWin, “2020 Senate Election Interactive Map” October 27, 2020 123 Simone Pathe, “The 10 Senate Seats Most Likely to Flip, One Week from Election Day” October 27, 2020. 124 Ibid. 125 538polls, “Colorado Polls,” October 25, 2020. 126 Simone Pathe, October 27, 2020 127 538Polls, “Alabama Polls” October 27, 2020 128 Simone Pathe, October 27, 2020

all but secured, the Democrats will need one or two more seats, depending on who wins the White House and therefore holds the Senate tie-break (the Vice-President breaks a Senate tie). In races where the incumbent is a Republican, Democrats can seek to win their final one or two seats via both races in Georgia, a tight battle in Iowa, as well as in Maine. The Senate race in North Carolina also appears to be neck-and-neck, as the state is shaping up to be an increasingly prominent electoral college swing. Otherwise, more long-shot races in which Democrats believe they have hope are in Montana, where incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Bullock is challenging Senator Steve Daines, and in South Carolina, where prominent Senator Lindsey Graham is facing a challenge from a very wellfunded Democrat challenger in Jamie Harrison.

With the two seats in Colorado and Arizona likely to swing and about seven other races where Democrats need to win either one or two seats, an aggregate consensus suggests that Democrats have about a 75% chance of regaining control of the Senate. 129 Republicans, for their part, will attempt to hold on to all of the aforementioned seats in order to try to maintain their majority. Last-ditch fundraising efforts have been launched by many Republicans in jeopardy of losing their Senate seats, as the GOP desperately attempts to cling to their control in the chamber.

129 Economist, “Senate-Forecasting the US 2020 Elections” October 27, 2020.