House of Representatives

The House of Representatives: Democrats All but Certain to Maintain Control

By Quinn Bunke

Projections for the House of Representatives currently show the seats in the lower chamber falling almost exactly as they did in the 2018 Elections Cycle. The popular vote projections fall pretty much in-line with those for the presidency, with about 53% of the votes being cast for Democrats, and approximately 46% for Republicans.130

The national unpopularity of President Trump in certain regions of America appears as though it will hinder the Republicans ability to win down-ballot races and to make inroads in either the House or the Senate through ticket-splitters. Current consensus projections give the Democrats an average of 242 Seats in the House of Representatives, while allotting 192 to the Republicans.131 The number of seats needed to secure a majority in the House is 218, thus the Democrats are well clear of this threshold.

Races that election viewers may want to keep an eye on include those of incumbent rookie congresswomen who have often been portrayed as a new age of Democrats, or at the very least as a counterweight to the Democratic establishment. These races, which are all but certain to be won by their incumbents, include Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York District-14, Ilhan Omar of Minnesota District-5, Ayanna Presley of Massachusetts District-7, and Rashida Tlaib of Michigan District-13. Often informally dubbed “the Squad”, this group of women of colour, all under the age of 50, have received unprecedented media attention for rookie members of Congress since their elections in 2018.

On the Republican side, 25-year old Madison Cawthorn is viewed by some as the counterweight to this youth movement in the Democratic party. Left partially paralyzed after a tragic car accident in 2014, Cawthorn uses a wheelchair. He upset a Trump-backed candidate in the June 2020 primary to be the House candidate in North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District. The Seat was previously held by current White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, who immediately endorsed Cawthorn upon his primary upset. 132 Cawthorn would be the youngest person ever elected to Congress should he win the seat against and his Democrat opponent Morris Davis. Aggerate polling currently suggests that the race is close, but that Cawthorn will likely secure the seat, in large part due to winning the fundraising race. 133

The dynamic in the House of Representatives is unlikely to shift much in 2020, as Democrats will maintain control, and it is anticipated that current House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will remain in her role for at least the next two years. 134 Democrats view the House as one of three key pieces in regaining control over the American political arena in 2020, and it is the one that is likely to be the easiest for them to win. Barring unforeseen events,

130 Economist, “House of Representatives-Forecasting the US 2020 Elections” October 27, 2020 131 Ibid. 132 Grace Panetta, “Madison Cawthorn Faces off against Moe Davis in North Carolina's 11th Congressional District” October 9, 2020 133 Ibid. 134 Chandelis Duster, “Pelosi Says She Will Run for Speaker Again If Democrats Keep Control of the House” October 25, 2020

the race for the House of Representatives is likely to be much less exciting for viewers to watch in 2020. Current aggregate polling gives the Democrats a better than 99% chance of winning the House in the upcoming elections.135

135 Economist, “House of Representatives-Forecasting the US 2020 Elections” October 27, 2020