detached housing areas. This is exemplified in Nairobi, where peripheral informal settlements are characterized by built densities exceeding parts of the CBD adjacent to suburban low-density formal neighborhoods. Accordingly, the relative centrality within the informal landmarket is likely more important to consider rather than absolute centrality measures when assessing the urban form of informal settlements. These concepts were developed based on the findings of this thesis and constitute contributions to the body of theories on how cities in developing countries develop. However, the research project also found a number of more specific results on the development of informal settlements. The longitudinal studies of informal settlements in Maputo suggest that the more centrally located informal settlements are characterized by decreasing population densities and the urban growth is accommodated through urban expansion which may occur at the expense of ecosystems while exacerbating problems with mobility and infrastructure provision (Jenkins & Mottelson, 2020; Mottelson, 2020b). Furthermore, these studies suggest that informal settlements densify over time and that the built densification leads to decreased urban tree canopy cover. The comparative study of informal settlements in major cities in East Africa suggests that the public space ratio in informal settlements is linked to block sizes and that built densities and the public space ratio are not interdependent (Mottelson, 2020a). The comparative study of planned and unplanned settlements in Maputo, Mozambique found that planning has a significant long-term impact on urban form and built densities despite the lack of enforcement of urban regulation (Mottelson, 2021). The study furthermore suggests that the governance practices of local administrations play a crucial role in regulating the levels of street encroachment and are thus essential in addressing the issues associated with unregulated urban development. As these findings reveal important aspects of how informal settlements develop the policy implications are arguably significant.
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
This section outlines a number of proposals based on the empirical studies presented in Part II. In general, detailed land use plans are arguably inadequate in guiding urban development as the institutional capacity to enforce such regulation is inadequate in most major cities in East Africa. Consequently, these recommendations rely on alternative measures to control the urban development. These policy proposals include anti-eviction laws, development of new tenure forms with less strict application of the building code, provision of small plots on government-owned land, early implementation of robust street networks in peripheral settlements, road-pricing, upgrading infrastructure in dense settlements, innovation in surveying and land use management methods, strategic use of construction of dense affordable housing as compensation for the relocation of population, and provision of additional mandate for decision-making along with additional resources for local administrations.
The ‘informal land supply hypothesis’ suggests that restriction of informal urban development in major cities in sub-Saharan Africa results in compromised livelihood for large parts of the population. Accordingly, the policy implications may be significant if decision-makers consider improved livelihood a political goal. Evictions are not a sustainable solution to the proliferation of informal settlements as most residents of informal settlements cannot afford housing within the formal market. Furthermore, evictions lead to increased costs of rental housing due to the price-premium paid by tenants for the increased risk of lost investments for the landlords. Accordingly, forced evictions without adequate compensation do not solve the fundamental issues and may in fact lead to worse conditions for the urban poor. Anti-eviction laws may thus be advised in order to increase tenure security. Such laws may include a due notice for landowners to inform land users, negotiation for the terms of compensations, requirement of relocation, minimum requirements for the period of occupation before rights are ensured, and financial assistance for relocation. Compliance with the building code and application of the formal procedures of land management lead to increased costs for the land users. Furthermore, the administrative capacity of the public sectors to process the legal framework for formal urban development is inadequate in most major cities in the region (UN-Habitat, 2010). Accordingly, there is a need to decrease the costs of complying with regulation for the land users as well as a need to decrease the bureaucratic workload of urban land management for authorities. Some countries recognize that the residents were not able to comply with the regulation or that the limited administrative capacity of the state did not provide viable alternatives to informal housing during the time of the establishment of the informal settlements (Jenkins, 2013). Consequently, these countries already grant some land rights to residents of informal settlements. Such rights include protection from uncompensated forced evictions and a legal path towards formalization. A new category of tenure may be developed in order to provide rights to informal landholders and provide a higher degree of tenure security. This informal landholder title may be governed with less costly requirements for spatial surveys and less strict application of the building code. More specifically, urban development may be guided with simple zoning plans permitting informal construction within certain spatial frameworks of plots. This may include standardized setbacks from access routes and maximum building heights. Such zoning could be administered by the local authorities in the informal settlements without the involvement of high-salary technical professionals. This would likely improve the conditions for provision of legal and affordable housing under market conditions as it would remove some of the administrative and cost-increasing barriers of the current legal housing market. Accordingly, it would provide legal protection from eviction for the residents of informal settlements and provide more viable guidelines countering hazardous densification of such areas.
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