Policy recommendations

detached housing areas. This is exemplified in Nairobi, where peripheral informal settlements are characterized by built densities exceeding parts of the CBD adjacent to suburban low-density formal neighborhoods. Accordingly, the relative centrality within the informal landmarket is likely more important to consider rather than absolute centrality measures when assessing the urban form of informal settlements.

These concepts were developed based on the findings of this thesis and constitute contributions to the body of theories on how cities in developing countries develop. However, the research project also found a number of more specific results on the development of informal settlements. The longitudinal studies of informal settlements in Maputo suggest that the more centrally located informal settlements are characterized by decreasing population densities and the urban growth is accommodated through urban expansion which may occur at the expense of ecosystems while exacerbating problems with mobility and infrastructure provision (Jenkins & Mottelson, 2020; Mottelson, 2020b). Furthermore, these studies suggest that informal settlements densify over time and that the built densification leads to decreased urban tree canopy cover. The comparative study of informal settlements in major cities in East Africa suggests that the public space ratio in informal settlements is linked to block sizes and that built densities and the public space ratio are not interdependent (Mottelson, 2020a). The comparative study of planned and unplanned settlements in Maputo, Mozambique found that planning has a significant long-term impact on urban form and built densities despite the lack of enforcement of urban regulation (Mottelson, 2021). The study furthermore suggests that the governance practices of local administrations play a crucial role in regulating the levels of street encroachment and are thus essential in addressing the issues associated with unregulated urban development. As these findings reveal important aspects of how informal settlements develop the policy implications are arguably significant.

POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

This section outlines a number of proposals based on the empirical studies presented in Part II. In general, detailed land use plans are arguably inadequate in guiding urban development as the institutional capacity to enforce such regulation is inadequate in most major cities in East Africa. Consequently, these recommendations rely on alternative measures to control the urban development. These policy proposals include anti-eviction laws, development of new tenure forms with less strict application of the building code, provision of small plots on government-owned land, early implementation of robust street networks in peripheral settlements, road-pricing, upgrading infrastructure in dense settlements, innovation in surveying and land use management methods, strategic use of construction of dense affordable housing as compensation for the relocation of population, and provision of additional mandate for decision-making along with additional resources for local administrations. The ‘informal land supply hypothesis’ suggests that restriction of informal urban development in major cities in sub-Saharan Africa results in compromised livelihood for large parts of the population. Accordingly, the policy implications may be significant if decision-makers consider improved livelihood a political goal. Evictions are not a sustainable solution to the proliferation of informal settlements as most residents of informal settlements cannot afford housing within the formal market. Furthermore, evictions lead to increased costs of rental housing due to the price-premium paid by tenants for the increased risk of lost investments for the landlords. Accordingly, forced evictions without adequate compensation do not solve the fundamental issues and may in fact lead to worse conditions for the urban poor. Anti-eviction laws may thus be advised in order to increase tenure security. Such laws may include a due notice for landowners to inform land users, negotiation for the terms of compensations, requirement of relocation, minimum requirements for the period of occupation before rights are ensured, and financial assistance for relocation.

Compliance with the building code and application of the formal procedures of land management lead to increased costs for the land users. Furthermore, the administrative capacity of the public sectors to process the legal framework for formal urban development is inadequate in most major cities in the region (UN-Habitat, 2010). Accordingly, there is a need to decrease the costs of complying with regulation for the land users as well as a need to decrease the bureaucratic workload of urban land management for authorities. Some countries recognize that the residents were not able to comply with the regulation or that the limited administrative capacity of the state did not provide viable alternatives to informal housing during the time of the establishment of the informal settlements (Jenkins, 2013). Consequently, these countries already grant some land rights to residents of informal settlements. Such rights include protection from uncompensated forced evictions and a legal path towards formalization. A new category of tenure may be developed in order to provide rights to informal landholders and provide a higher degree of tenure security. This informal landholder title may be governed with less costly requirements for spatial surveys and less strict application of the building code. More specifically, urban development may be guided with simple zoning plans permitting informal construction within certain spatial frameworks of plots. This may include standardized setbacks from access routes and maximum building heights. Such zoning could be administered by the local authorities in the informal settlements without the involvement of high-salary technical professionals. This would likely improve the conditions for provision of legal and affordable housing under market conditions as it would remove some of the administrative and cost-increasing barriers of the current legal housing market. Accordingly, it would provide legal protection from eviction for the residents of informal settlements and provide more viable guidelines countering hazardous densification of such areas.

KENSUP housing project →

Upgraded The uniform newly constructed eight-story tower blocks with paved common courtyards and raised pedestrian access decks are in striking contrast to the intimate muddy alleys in the surrounding low-rise high-density settlements. The ‘slum upgrade’ resettlement scheme conveys a Corbusian perspective on Kibera. Are these bright naturally ventilated apartments with running water and flushing toilets ‘machines for living’ which address the unsanitary and unhealthy conditions of the slum? Or will they become the slum of tomorrow characterized by social isolation, substance abuse, and vandalism? Today, some resettled tenants have started subletting their dwellings to middle-class citizens and moved back into the informal parts of Kibera with a supplementary income as the rent was set below market value. Who knows what the future holds?

Governments may consider designating new areas for construction without strict application of the building code in order to increase the supply of affordable land and thereby reduce the price on the market. This could be pioneered through state-financed allocation of small plots with leasehold titles on government-owned land, with allocation of sufficient street space, common water and sanitation units, and local guidance for auto-construction without strict enforcement of the building code. The local administration of these areas may receive capacity building in the urban management to provide general guidelines for the informal construction according to basic zoning such as maximum building heights and setbacks from access routes. Appropriate solutions for such pilot areas may include minimal plot sizes (e.g., 100m2), on which the citizens construct their houses guided by the local administration. Common bathrooms, showers, and water posts may be public-funded to provide infrastructure for those who cannot afford the solutions provided by the market. This will likely decrease the competition on the informal land market resulting in lower costs of accommodation and thereby free resources for investments in basic household infrastructure (e.g., water, sanitation, and electricity) and lead to improved livelihood.

Previous studies have shown that the cost of structural adjustment of the urban fabric of informal settlements is much more expensive than ‘greenfield’ developments (Lamson-Hall et al., 2019). Accordingly, if efforts to regularize peripheral areas are postponed, the urban form will consolidate and the costs of such interventions will increase. Mottelson (2021) suggests that urban planning has a significant impact on the development of the urban form of informal settlements. More specifically, informal urban areas that were planned more than 40 years ago are characterized by significantly higher levels of public space, larger average street widths, and higher built densities compared to adjacent unplanned informal sample areas. Urban planning thus likely leads to increased feasibility and cost-effectiveness of implementation infrastructure due to the higher level of public space and higher average street width. Additionally, urban planning may have positive effects on mobility due to the higher built densities and likely higher population densities in the planned areas. Consequently, urban planning is suggested to have a significant long-term impact even in contexts with limited institutional capacity to enforce urban regulation. This underpins the significance of allocation of public funds for the provision of spatial planning, particularly in peripheral areas where the urban form is not consolidated yet as implementation of planned urban structures in such areas will be less costly. Accordingly, efforts to implement robust urban structures in peripheral areas should be considered a policy priority. Small and narrow plots should be advocated in this process as this will enable higher population densities and thereby limit the urban expansion, lower costs of individual plots, and increase the costeffectiveness of future investments in infrastructure. Plot dimensions as small as 5x10 m could be tested in order to advance compact city development and attain affordability. Major roads are suggested in two-kilometer grids as this will provide access to public transportation within 10 minutes for pedestrians and thereby improve mobility.

Mottelson (2020a, 2021) suggests that the local neighborhood administrations to a large extent manage the urban development of informal settlements and play a crucial role in countering street encroachment and maintaining the public space. However, much of this de facto local governance of the urban development occurs without a legal basis. Accordingly, the legal guidelines for the mandate of this governance practice may be subject to revision. In order to formalize such practices, local administrations may thus acquire additional mandates for such local governance. This could include the authority to issue construction permits based on basic requirements such as maximum building heights and setbacks from access routes. Liability for the security of construction may be the responsibility of either the landholder/owner or the contractor. Standardized contracts for this may be managed locally. Furthermore, the local administrations may be provided capacity building in urban management in order to counter issues with hazardous densification. Finally, additional resources for enhancing local priorities such as street expansions or infrastructure provision may be provided to the local administrations. Particularly in areas characterized by issues with public hygiene, local administrations may need technical support in street expansions and implementing stormwater management infrastructure. Such increased mandate for governance and decision making along with more resources for locally decided infrastructure priorities may thus address issues with hazardous densification and street encroach as well as provide more viable legal frameworks for urban development based on the local resources.

The likelihood of continued lack of state control of the peripheral urban development will likely result in continued urban expansion and consequent unsustainable resource consumption as well as exacerbated issues with mobility in many sub-Saharan African cities. In such cases, road pricing could be considered for accessing more central parts of the cities in order to generate public revenue, decrease traffic congestion, decrease CO2 emissions, and curb the urban expansion. According to the ‘cost of friction hypothesis’, increased transportation costs will result in increased incentives for densification in central areas. This may create a market based ‘green-belt’ effect, which would otherwise require land management capacities that local authorities lack. Exemption of public transport for the road pricing may ensure a more socially balanced urban development. This may provide incentives for the middle class who can afford investments in infrastructure to settle within these central areas for driving the urban densification and thereby limit issues with public hygiene in more dense settlements. Furthermore, property taxes are not collected in informal settlements due to the extra-legal conditions. In Maputo, there is a monthly tax on access to electricity which is de facto comparable to property taxation. Alternative measures for collection of public revenue such as road-pricing or