Introduction • 2014: Global key figures • Trends by energy • Some confirmations • Some surprises – sometimes cyclical – sometimes structural
2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 2
Part One Key energy figures for G20 countries in 2014
2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 3
Energy: G20 key figures in 2014*
+3.5% Economic growth At purchasing power parity
2013:
+3.1%
2002-12: +3.8%
+0.3%
-0.2%
10.8 Gtep
26 GtCO2
Energy consumption stagnation
CO2 emissions stabilisation
2013:
+2.3%
2002-12: +2.3%
2013 :
+2.4%
2002-12: +2.6%
* Note: G20 countries account for about 80% of global energy consumption
2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 4
Steady economic growth at global level with significant differences at country level GDP Growth in G20 countries (%/year)
•
Strong growth in China, slowing down for 3 years
•
Rebound in US growth thanks to an increase in consumption
•
No growth in Europe and Japan: weak consumption and investments
•
Near stagnation in Russia: geopolitical tensions and falling oil prices
10% 2012-13
8%
2013-14 2002-12
6% 4% 2% 0%
-2%
% of G20 G20
38%
21% 9%
BRICS China
India
4%
3%
41%
Brazil Russia
G7
21% 20 % 6% USA
UE. 28 Japan
Source: Enerdata
2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 5
Historical stagnation in energy consumption Energy consumption growth in G20 (%/year) 8%
2012-13 2013-14
6%
•
No increase in energy consumption despite economic growth
•
China (30% of G20) : stabilisation for the 1st time in 17 years
•
Europe: largest fall ever (except during the economic crisis)
•
USA: moderate growth
•
India: very strong growth
•
High impact of climate in Europe and in some Asian countries
4% 2%
0% -2% -4% -6%
% of G20
G20
72%
47%
28%
G20 BRICS China w/o China
8%
7%
3%
India Russia Brazil
35%
21%
G7
USA
14%
4%
E.U.28 Japan
Source: Enerdata
2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 6
China + USA = ~50% of G20 energy consumption G20 energy consumption by country country G20 energy consumptionbreakdown breakdown by 18%
China USA
21%
E.U.28
14% 6%
India
Brazil S. Korea Others
26%
20%
8%
7% 7%
Russia Japan
28%
4%
6%
2% 3%
2004 2014
2% 3% 12% 13%
Source: Enerdata
2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 7
Significant decline in energy intensity in Europe and China Trends in energy intensity (%/year) 2012/2013
4%
•
Noticeable year: -3pts vs -1pt
•
Strong impact of China (-7 pts !):
2013/2014
2%
2002/2012
0%
See specific analysis
-2%
•
EU: record year,
•
Other countries: no noticeable improvement
-4%
-6%
-8%
% of G20 demand 72% G20
g20 w/o China
47%
28%
8%
7%
BRICS
China
India
Russia
3% Brazil
35% G7
21%
14%
USA
EU28
4% Japan
mainly due to climate conditions (2.5 pts)
Source: Enerdata
Energy intensity: energy consumption necessary to produce one unit of GDP 2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 8
Energy consumption evolution in China China: GDP, energy and coal consumption compared growths (2004-2014) 20.0%
•
Energy consumption growth Coal consumption growth Economic growth
17.5% 15.0% 12.5% 10.0% 7.5% 5.0% 2.5% 0.0% -2.5%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Structural changes toward a less energy-intensive economy: • Stabilisation in steel and cement production • Efficiency gains in power and manufacturing industries Cyclical impacts: • Slowdown in economic growth and power generation (+4% in 2014 vs. +7.5% in 2013)
•
-5.0% Source : Enerdata
Figures reliability
High hydropower availability
Decline in coal share in the power mix from 75% to 73%
2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 9
Stabilisation in CO2 emissions Trends in CO2 emissions in G20 countries (%/year) 10%
A first in 40 years! Stabilisation strongly related to stagnating energy consumption
China: first drop since 1999 (energy demand +
2012-13
8%
2013-14
6%
2002-12
4% 2%
declining share of coal in power mix)
0% -2%
-4% -6% -8%
% of G20
G20
50%
32%
8%
6%
2%
BRICS China India Russia Brazil
34% G7
20%
13%
4%
Fall in Europe Strong increase in India
(consumption + high share of coal)
USA E.U.28 Japan
Source: Enerdata
2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 10
Energy carbon factor remains stable Carbon factor and trends – G20 countries 2.0%
• India
Carbon factor growth. (CAGR 2000-14, %)
1.5%
1.0% 0.5%
G20 Brazil
0.0%
Argentina
BRICS
South Korea Canada
-0.5%
EU28
•
Japan
Indonesia
South Africa
China
G7
UK Germany
USA
Australia
Russia
-1.0%
Italy
France
-1.5%
Key points: • India: more coal • Japan: nuclear shutdown • EU: decrease in oil & coal demand, rising renewables •
-2.0% 1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Carbon factor
3.0
3.5
Source: Enerdata
In the long-term (2000-2014), no improvement Structural gaps between countries
References: 2.3 Gas 2.7 Oil 3.5 Coal
Carbon Factor : tonnes of CO2 emitted for 1 toe of energy consumed
2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 11
First conclusions • • •
2014 was a remarkable year: near stagnation in energy demand and CO2 emissions despite economic growth Toward a less energy-intensive and coal-consuming economic growth? It’s too soon to say…: – Structural trends to be confirmed: • Industrial structure and declining coal weight in China • Developments in renewable capacities and production • Realisation of energy efficiency policies
– Non-recurring and cyclical factors: • Very warm winter in Europe (record) and in some Asian countries • High hydropower availability in China, …
– Evolutions not yet visible • Stable carbon factor: no significant change in energy mix (despite rising renewable investments) • Evolution of the Indian economy 2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 12
Part Two Trends by energy
2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 13
Energy mix
Coal: most consumed energy in G20 countries* Primary energy consumption breakdown in G20 countries + 8 pts for coal between 2000 and 2014 8%
Coal 8% 10%
9% 27%
2000 8.1 Gtoe
Oil
35%
Gas
19% Primary electricity**
20% 35%
Biomass
2014 10.8 Gtoe +34% vs 2000
29% Source: Enerdata
* Caution : oil remains the most consumed fuel at global level ** Nuclear, hydropower, wind, solar and geothermal 2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 14
Oil
Oil: 50% fall in international prices Crude oil price evolution (US$/bbl) 130 WTI
120
Why halving in 2014 after 3-4 years of stability?
•
Increase in US crude oil production
•
Market evolution: OPEC doesn’t lower its output (target of 30
Brent
110
Dubai
100 90 80 70 60
mbl/d kept)
50
•
No significant evolution in global demand
•
10% US$ appreciation
2015/01
2014/07
2014/01
2013/07
2013/01
2012/07
2012/01
2011/07
40 2011/01
US$/bbl
•
2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 15
Oil
Booming US oil production in 2014 (+15%), slight decline in OPEC output Trends in crude oil production (Mt/year) 1600
1400 1200
USA
1000
Russia
Conventional
Saudi Arabia
800 600
Other OPEC
Unconventional
Other World
400 200 0 2011
2012
2013
2014 Source : Enerdata
2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 16
Oil
Oil demand continues to slightly increase • Oil demand growth in the G20 major countries (%/year)
Oil demand continues to slow down in BRICS: –
2nd successive drop in diesel consumption in China
–
Slowdown in Russia
–
Growth below historical average in India
2012-13
8%
2013-14 6%
2002-12
4% 2% 0%
•
-2%
-4% -6% -8%
% of G20 G20
42% 33% 17% G7
BRICS
6%
E.U.28 Russia
4% Brazil
16%
4%
25%
China S.Arabia
USA
6% India
6% Japan
Source: Enerdata
•
Decline in Europe and in Japan : –
Economic conjuncture
–
Energy efficiency improvement
Moving toward an upswing in US demand?
2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 17
Gas
Gas: no growth in 2014 •
First time since 2001, except economical crisis – stable share in the energy mix
•
Europe: historical fall -11% (impact of warm
Gas demand growth in the G20 major countries (%/year) 16% 12%
10%
2012-13
8%
2013-14
6%
2002-12
climate on heating + coal competition)
4% 2%
•
0% -2%
growth in non-conventional gas production)
-4% -6% -12% -8%
USA: continuing development (impact of
% du G20
49%
30%
G20
G7
USA
17%
5%
29%
E.U.28 Japan
BRICS
7%
18%
2%
China
Russia
India
Source: Enerdata
•
Russia: 3rd year of stable or declining demand
•
China: slowdown, but a growth remains high – low share in energy mix
2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 18
Gas
High impact of climate on gas consumption Climate impacts on gas consumption in 2014 6% Gas consumption
•
2014: warm winter, especially in Europe
•
This explains ½ of the slowdown in Europe
•
High impact in Asia (not always measured)
Gas consumption with climate corrections 2%
-2%
-6%
-10%
-14%
-18% E.U. 28
France
Germany
Italy
U.K.
S. Korea
Canada
USA
Source: Enerdata
2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 19
Gas
Gas is competing with cheaper coal Trends in relative prices gas/coal in Europe 400%
300%
200%
01/03/2015
01/09/2014
01/03/2014
01/09/2013
01/03/2013
01/09/2012
01/03/2012
01/09/2011
01/03/2011
01/09/2010
01/03/2010
100%
Source: Enerdata
2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 20
Coal
Decrease in coal consumption! Coal demand growth in the G20 major countries (%/year)
12%
2012-13 2013-14 2002-12
8%
•
First drop in 15 years (except crisis): -0.7%
•
First decrease in China since 1999
•
Coal consumption drop in Europe (-6.3%) due to lower electricity consumption
•
Consumption fall in China almost offset by the increase in India
4% 0% -4% -8%
% of G20
G20
Mt
51%
G20 w/o China
China
70%
13%
17%
10%
BRICS
India
G7
USA
12% E.U.28
Source: Enerdata
Main contributions to the 2013/2014 coal consumption +95
7 550 7 500
+2
+0 -113
7 450
-52
7 400 7 350
49%
7 446
-9
-7
8 7 370
7 300 2013
India Brazil Japan China E.U.28 Russia USA Others 2014 Source: Enerdata
2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 21
Electricity
Slowdown in power consumption growth Electricity demand growth in the G20 major countries (%/year) 14%
•
Only 1.2% hike for G20
•
Slowdown in China, though growth remains sustained
•
Strong increase in India (economic growth + lower capacity deficit)
•
Strong fall in Europe (weak economy + climate impact + energy efficiency)
2012-13
12%
2013-14
10%
2002-12
8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6%
% of G20 G20
40% G7
43%
16%
28%
BRICS E.U.28
China
6% India
22% USA
5% Russia
5% Japan
Source: Enerdata
2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 22
Electricity
Solar PV: steady investments with geographical rebalancing GW
Solar PV - installed capacities in 2014
40 35 30
Others
25
EU28
20
USA
15
Japan
10
India
5
China
target: 10 vs 14 GW)
Growth in Japan: +50% in new installations
Continuing dynamics in the USA
Significant slowdown in Europe
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 Source: Enerdata
GW 100
Cumulative installed PV capacity 2010
2011
2012
Steady investments in China (though below
2013
2014
80 60 40 20 0 EU28
China
USA
India
Japan Source: Enerdata
2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 23
Electricity
Wind power: steady investment pace GW
Wind installed capacities in 2014
50
Others
40
EU28
+20 GW of new capacities installed in China (45% of world capacity additions) – a new record!
Market resumption in the USA
Surprise in Europe: wind market remains very dynamic despite falling subsidies
Brazil ranks 4th in terms of new installations (2.5 GW)
Brazil 30
USA Japan
20
India
10
China
0 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 Source: Enerdata
GW
Wind cumulative generation capacity
140
2010
120
2011
2012
2013
2014
100 80 60 40 20 0
EU28
China
USA
India Source: Enerdata
2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 24
Electricity
Various power mix evolutions depending on countries - illustrations In the long-term: • Europe: growth in renewable energy, oil and coal decline, no increase in gas • China: coal remains dominant • USA: coal decline, increase in gas and renewables
Power mix – UE 35% 30%
25% 20% 15% 10% 5%
0% Coal
Gas
Oil
Nuclear
REN
Source : Enerdata
Power mix - China
Power mix - USA
100%
50%
80%
2000
60%
2010
40% 20% 0% Coal
Gas
Oil
Nuclear
REN: including Hydro
REN
40% 30%
2013
20%
2014
10%
0% Coal
Gas
Oil
Nuclear
REN
Source : Enerdata
2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 25
Part Two: Key Messages •
No significant change in the global energy mix
•
Oil markets shaken by evolutions in supply
•
Global energy consumption stabilisation is reflected everywhere: – 0 growth for gas, – Fall in coal consumption, – Slight increase in electricity consumption
•
Renewable investments remain dynamic and spread out globally
2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 26
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