THE DAWN OF THE CLEAN ENERGY ERA
David Hochschild Commissioner California Energy Commission
2
Renewable Energy Represented 65% of New US Electric Generation Capacity in 2015
5,974 MW 11,298 MW Renewables Fossil Fuels
Source: FERC Energy Infrastructure Update, January-December 2015
3
Since 2001, California’s GDP Has Grown by 28% While Emissions Have Fallen by 8% 30%
GDP Change Since 2000
20%
Population
10% 0%
GHG Emissions -10%
GHG Emissions Per Capita
-20% -30% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Metric
Year
Associated 2014 Value
GDP
2.31 trillion
Population
38.7 million
GHG Emissions
441.5 MMTCO2e
GHG Emissions Per Capita
11.4 metric tons CO2e per person
Source: CA Air Resources Board
5
Federal Subsidies Have Favored Fossil Fuels
Source: What Would Jefferson Do? DBL Investors, September 2011
6
Federal Energy Subsidies 2006: INVESTMENT TAX CREDIT ENACTED
INVESTMENT TAX CREDIT (ITC) PRODUCTION TAX CREDIT (PTC) 1926: OIL DEPLETION ALLOWANCE ENACTED
OIL DEPLETION ALLOWANCE (ODA)
SET TO EXPIRE 2022
1992: PRODUCTION TAX CREDIT ENACTED
*PTC Expired 6 times and Extended 7 times
ONGOING
SET TO EXPIRE 2020
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
What Can the Climate Change Movement Learn from the Marriage Equality Movement?
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
2000
States
States Where Same-Sex Marriage is Allowed
iPhone was first released in 2007
California Moves to 50% Renewables
50% 33% 20%
2013
2020
2030 10
California Leads the US in Renewables Installed. What lessons have been learned?
(MW capacity) Source: Graphics based on data from the American Council On Renewable Energy (ACORE) Renewable Energy in the 50 States (2013/2014 Editions) http://www.acore.org/publications/50states/
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The Birth of the Energy Commission 1972: Rand Corporation report: CA energy demand growing 8% per year, predicts 40 new nuclear power plants may be needed
1974:
Jerry Brown elected Governor. California Energy Commission created to help CA lead on energy efficiency and renewables
1975:
CA initiates first efficiency standards for buildings and appliances 12
California Advancing Energy Efficiency
California Advancing Energy Efficiency
2009: The Energy Commission’s TV efficiency standards take effect, saving Californians $1 billion / year
2012: The Commission’s plug-in charger efficiency standards begin saving Californians $300M / year
Energy Efficiency Strategy in California
Title 24: Energy Codes for New Buildings
Title 20: Energy Codes for New Appliances
Energy Upgrades for Existing Buildings ($2 Billion/year) 16
The Falling Cost of Clean Energy Technologies Indexed Cost Reductions Since 2008 120%
Percentage of Cost
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Year Source: DOE Report, Revolution Now, The Future Arrives for Five Clean Energy Technologies, 2015
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California Making Rapid Progress on Renewable Energy
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
SOLAR WIND BIOMASS
5%
GEOTHERMAL
SMALL HYDRO
0% 2001
2002
2006
2008
2011
2014
Source: California Energy Commission, Tracking Progress Report
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The World’s Largest Thin Film Solar PV Project
Desert Sunlight Solar Project 550 MW Riverside County, CA
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The World’s 3rd Largest Silicon PV Project
Solar Star Project 579 MW Kern County, CA
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The World’s Largest Solar Thermal Power Plant (Tower)
Ivanpah Solar Thermal Project 393 MW San Bernardino County, CA
21
The World’s Largest Solar Thermal Power Plant (Trough) Solar Energy Generating System (SEGS) 354 MW San Bernardino County, CA
22
The World’s Largest Geothermal Power Plant
Geysers Geothermal Power Plant 955 MW Lake County, CA
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The World’s Largest Wind Project
Alta Wind Energy Center 1550 MW Kern County, CA
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California Leads the Nation in Biomass Energy Generation
Honey Lake Biomass Plant Lassen County, CA
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Case Study in Reducing Impacts: Vasco Wind Energy Center Repowering 432 small turbines removed and replaced with 34 new turbines
Vasco Wind Energy Center, 78MW Contra Costa County
RESULT: Energy production tripled & avian mortality cut by 70% 26
New Solar Home Construction Growing Rapidly 27% of new homes in Southern CA built with solar
Zero Energy Community Rocklin, CA 27
More Californians Work in the Solar Industry Than for All Utilities Combined SDG&E
PG&E
SCE
POU
80,000 70,000
75,600
60,000
56,800
50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000
0
Solar Jobs
Sources: Solar Foundation, 2015 Solar Jobs Census U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Form 10-K, 2014 http://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch.html
IOU/POU Jobs
Solar Expected to be half of all Renewable Energy in California by 2020
Source: CPUC RPS Report
The Future of Energy Storage: 1.3 GW by 2020
$5 B Tesla Battery Factory under construction 30
The Latest Solar Customers: The President and the Governor
31
Largest Manufacturing Plant in CA Produces Electric Vehicles Tesla employs over 12,000 people
Tesla Factory Fremont, CA
200,000 ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN CALIFORNIA TODAY 32
The Electrification of Almost Everything
33
Stanford University Converts Space and Water Heating from Natural Gas to Electricity
Reduces water use and GHG emissions by 2/3 and annual energy bills by 1/3
34
Now Selling: The All-Electric Home
CityVentures all-electric homes Bellflower, CA 35
Companies Committing to 100% Renewable Energy
36
Over 30 US military bases in CA Representing approximately $130B annually to the California Economy
Navy: 50% Renewables by 2020
Source: California Energy Commission, 2014 Geographic Information Systems Data
Marines: Zero Fossil Fuels on Bases by 2025
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High Speed Rail is Coming to California and it will be 100% Powered by Renewables‌
38
$60
Rapid Growth of the Clean Energy Economy: Market Cap of General Motors vs. Tesla
$50
107 years for GM to become $50 billion company
Billions
$40
$30
12 years for Tesla to become $34 billion company
$20
$10 GM Founded 1908
Tesla Founded 2003
$0 1899
1908
1917
Based on market value as of 8/5/15
1926
1935
1944
1953
1962
1971
1980
1989
1998
2007
2016 39
California and the Drought
40
CA Water Efficiency Standards Deliver 2.1 M Acre-feet of Savings/year Daily Water Consumption (acre-feet)
4,000
3,500
3,000
650 billion gallons annual savings
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1970
1976
1982
Source: California Energy Commission, 2014 http://www.energy.ca.gov/appliances/
1988
1994
2000
2006
2012 41
8
California Water Appliance Standards
7
Gallons / Minute or Flush
6
6
6
5
4
3.5
3
3.5
1.8
2
1.2
1
1.28 0.5
0 Pre-1978 Source: California Energy Commission, 2015
2015 42
Drawing Lessons From Successful Campaigns: The Story of Acid Rain
43
Reduction in Acid Rain
1985
Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program, 2014 http://nadp.sws.uiuc.edu/ntn/annualmapsByYear.aspx
2012
44
The Ozone Hole
1979
Source: NASA Ozone Hole Watch, 2014 http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/monthly/SH.html
2013
45
2050 (expected)
Smoking in the US
46
% of Americans Who Smoke
70
60 1965: Health warnings required on packaging 50
Smoking Rate Falls to 15%
1983: Cigarette tax doubles 1992: U.S. Bans Sale to Minors
40
2014: CVS Stops cigarette sales at 7,600 retail pharmacies
30
20
1970: Advertisements banned from TV 1998: CA Bans Smoking in Bars
10
1988: U.S. Bans Smoking on Airplanes
0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 2014 http://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/tables/trends/cig_smoking/index.htm
The Largest Tree in the World
Sequoia National Park California
48
Even the biggest things in the world start small
49
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Thank you
David Hochschild California Energy Commission David.hochschild@energy.ca.gov