Information | Analytics | Expertise
APRIL 29TH 2014
GLOBAL PV MARKET OUTLOOK
Jessica Jin Senior Analyst, Solar Research IHS Technology Jessica.Jin@ihs.com Š 2015 IHS
GLOBAL PV MARKET IN 2015 – WHAT WILL DRIVE GROWTH?
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IHS SOLAR MARKET UPDATE / APRIL 2015
Where is the PV market today? Global PV Installations (GW) 70 60 30%
50 14% 23%
40
Asia Americas EMEA
30 20 10 0 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: PV Demand Market Tracker Š 2015 IHS
3
IHS SOLAR MARKET UPDATE / APRIL 2015
44.1 GW of PV installations in 2014 South Korea; 0,6 GW
Rest of world; 5,4 GW
South Africa; 0,9 GW
China; 12,6 GW
Australia; 0,9 GW France; 1,0 GW India; 1,1 GW
Germany; 1,9 GW
UK; 2,6 GW
USA; 7,1 GW
Japan; 10,0 GW
2014 Installations = 44.1 GW 14% Y-o-Y Growth Source: PV Demand Market Tracker Š 2015 IHS
4
IHS SOLAR MARKET UPDATE / APRIL 2015
57.3 GW of PV installations in 2015 Rest of world; 8,7 GW Chile; 0,9 GW China; 17,3 GW Australia; 0,9 GW Thailand; 1,1 GW France; 1,2 GW Germany; 2,0 GW
India; 2,0 GW
UK; 3,5 GW
Japan; 10,4 GW USA; 9,4 GW
2015 Installations = 57.3 GW 30% Y-o-Y Growth Source: PV Demand Market Tracker Š 2015 IHS
5
IHS SOLAR MARKET UPDATE / APRIL 2015
Installations to reach 73 GW in 2019 Global PV Installations (GW) 140 120
Asia
100
Africa Americas
60
Middle East
40
Europe
GW
80
Optimistic
20
Conservative
0 2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Source: PV Demand Market Tracker Š 2015 IHS
6
IHS SOLAR MARKET UPDATE / APRIL 2015
China to remain largest global market in 2015 Cumulative installations in 2019 = 124 GW
25.000 20.000 GW
Utility-scale
15.000
Large Commercial Medium Commercial
10.000
Small Commercial Residential
5.000 0 2013
2014
2015 2012
Installations (Figure above)
Connections (Official Statistics)
Unconnected Installations at Year End
2016 2013
2017 2014
4.8 GW
11 GW
12.6 GW
3.3 GW
10.9 GW
10.6 GW
1.5 GW
2.2 GW
2.8 GW
2018
2019 2015 17.3 GW
2016 17.4 GW
2017 18.6 GW
Source: PV Demand Market Tracker Š 2015 IHS
7
IHS SOLAR MARKET UPDATE / APRIL 2015
Alternative scenarios in China 30 No cuts to incentives, incentives for DG are successful
25
Conservative Most-likely Optimistic
GW
20 15
Severe cuts to FiT rates and more restrictions on grid-connection.
10 5 2014
Š 2015 IHS
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
8
IHS SOLAR MARKET UPDATE / APRIL 2015
PV installations >1 MW to peak in Japan in 2015 Mega solar projects to decrease after 2015 after further FiT decrease
12 10
GW
8 6 4 2 0 2011
2012
2013
Residential
2014
Small Commercial
2015
Medium Commercial
2016 Large Commercial
2017
2018
2019
Utility-scale
Note: Installations are for calendar year Š 2015 IHS
9
IHS SOLAR MARKET UPDATE / APRIL 2015
US installations to peak at 12.2 GW in 2016 IHS assumes ITC tax credit falls from 30% to 10% 14 12
GW
10 8 6 4 2 0 2013
2014 Residential
Š 2015 IHS
2015
Small Commercial
2016 Medium Commercial
2017 Large Commercial
2018
2019
Utility-Scale
10
IHS SOLAR MARKET UPDATE / APRIL 2015
UK installations boom in Q1 2015 2,50 Utility-scale installations forecast to fall dramatically after Q1 2015
2,00
GW
1,50
1,00
0,50
0,00
Residential
Š 2015 IHS
Small Commercial
Medium Commercial
Large Commercial
Utility-scale
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GLOBAL PV MARKET IN 2015 – WHAT WILL DRIVE GROWTH?
Emerging Markets Help Drive Global Demand Top ten most attractive PV markets and market growth expectations
Attractiveness Index
65 South Africa
60 55
Chile
Israel
50
Turkey
45
Mexico
Philippines
Brazil
40
Jordan
Egypt
Algeria
35 30 2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Year when IHS expects the market to reach 1 GW of cumulative PV capacity
South Africa
Chile
Israel
Turkey
Mexico
Brazil
Philippines
Jordan
Egypt
Source: IHS
Algeria © 2015 IHS
IHS attractiveness index based on both short term developments and macro level drivers and inhibitors. The demand forecast shows the distribution of PV installations over time. © 2015 IHS
12
IHS SOLAR MARKET UPDATE / APRIL 2015
Large projects lead solar growth 30000 25000
2014
2015
20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Off-Grid
Š 2015 IHS
Residential
Small Commercial
Medium Commercial
Large Commercial
Utility-Scale
13
GLOBAL PV MARKET IN 2015 – WHAT WILL DRIVE GROWTH?
Conclusions
© 2015 IHS
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TOP GLOBAL THREE PV TRENDS MARKET IN THE 2015INVERTER – WHAT WILL MARKET DRIVEAPRIL GROWTH? 2015
Any Questions Jessica Jin Senior Analyst, Solar Research, IHS Technology Jessica.Jin@ihs.com
© 2015 IHS
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