National Trust Survey

National Trust Survey Findings

22nd January 2019 Š 2018 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

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STUDY OBJECTIVE (WAVE 1)

Mood of Nation – Wave 1

To gather opinions on some of the ‘burning questions’ and assess the direction of the political wind in the country before parliamentary election

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METHODOLOGY ▪ The objective of the study was to ascertain local political situation and identify influencing trust factors at SCR and state level, segregated by urban and rural areas and coupled with some diagnostics on how and why people might vote in a certain way ▪ To meet above objective, adopted a sampling protocol that was best suitable to capture the heterogeneity of India’s population base ▪ The sampling protocol was designed to provide estimate at socio-cultural region and state level, with 95% confidence interval and 5% margin of error (desired levels of precision). The main requirements for this are: ▪ A comprehensive national sample frame at the most granular level possible (census enumerator blocks in urban and villages in rural) and random selection at every level of sample selection (i.e.: district, ward/village, household, individual)

▪ The PPS (probability proportional to size) sampling procedure was adopted for selection of wards and villages in each SCR ▪ Total 34,470 individuals were surveyed from 291 urban wards and 690 villages in 57 socio-cultural regions covering 320 parliamentary constituencies, spreading in 285 districts across 23 states of India.

▪ Sample collected through survey was then weighted using 2011 national census data to correct for over- and undersampling of certain population sub-groups 3

© 2018 Ipsos.

GEOGRAPHIC AND SAMPLE COVERAGE- WAVE 1

North No. of States - 8

Sates (SCR Nos) – UP ( 5 Nos), UK (1 No), Pun (2 Nos), Har (2 Nos), Del (1 No), J&K (1 No), HP (1 No) & Raj (4 Nos)

Total SCR – 17 Sample Size/SCR – 504 Total Sample Size - 8568

South No. of states - 5

Sates (SCR Nos) – AP ( 2 Nos), Tel (1 No), Kar (3 Nos), TN (2 Nos) & Ker (2 No)

Total SCR – 10 Sample Size/SCR – 504 Total Sample Size - 5040

East No. of States - 5

Sates (SCR Nos) – Bih ( 3 Nos), JH (1 No), Ori (4 Nos), WB (3 Nos) & Assam (2 No)

Total SCR – 13 Sample Size/SCR – 504 Total Sample Size - 6552

Sates (SCR Nos) – Mah ( 5 Nos), Goa (1 No), Guj (4 Nos), MP (4 Nos) & Chh (1 No)

Total SCR – 15 Sample Size/SCR – 504 Total Sample Size - 7560

West No. of States - 5

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© 2018 Ipsos.

POINTS CONSIDERED WHILE CONDUCTED SURVEY ▪ Use of Secret Ballot (kind of): While asking the question on who they voted for or whom they are going to vote, we handed over the data capturing device to respondent on which they could mark their choice. The process was designed to ensure that the people interviewed knew they would remain anonymous.

▪ Translation: The questionnaire was further translated in the language which is mainly spoken in the respondents state. Translation was carefully scanned by language expert, so that a question in their state did not have a changed version.

▪ Show cards and Definition Sheet were shown to respondents wherever required to proceed with the questions in the questionnaire.

The survey was conducted between 20th November 2018 – 8th Jan 2019 Length of interview: 30-35 minutes 5

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DEFINITION OF SCR (SOCIO-CULTURAL REGION) •

A socio-cultural region (SCR) is determined by combining factors like linguistic homogeneity i.e. in-group speech

communication, cultural similarity, historicity of the region and other socio-cultural considerations like castes, SC/ST status etc.

Given that the study was designed to capture Mood of the Nation coupled with some diagnostics on how and why people might vote in a certain way, we considered a sampling protocol based on SCR, assuming it would provide estimates based on homogeneity required to represent India’s vast population base.

In the present design, it was also important to capture the existing heterogeneity among Indian population base across 23 states, which was also considered while fixing the sample size.

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DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF RESPONDENTS - WAVE 1 Mood of Nation – Wave 1

N=28668; Weighted Data

51%

Age Group

Area Type

Gender 49%

18-24 years

21%

25-34 years

Urban, 36%

25%

35-44 years

Rural, 64%

21%

45-99 years

33% NCCS Classification

Caste

25%

29%

25% 15% 6%

7

43%

33%

16%

6%

2%

General

OBC

SC

ST

Others

© 2018 Ipsos.

SEC A SEC B SEC C SEC D SEC E

Trust factor

10 10

© 2018 Ipsos.

ISSUES & CONCERNS Voters are trusting BJP more than INC for solving issues in country N=28668

Price rise

44

Petrol prices/Fuel

44

Deteriorated Law and Order situation

BJP

INC

38 Lack of communal harmony and secularism

37

18

18

19

37

19

19

19 37

18

Rise in corruption

38

18

Lack of sufficient Infrastructure (roads electricity water etc

38

37 Lack of easy access to affordable healthcare

38

19 18

Lack of easy access to affordable education

Lack of employment opportunity in Government sector

19

19 Lack of focus on social sectors and inclusive growth

39

36

Gap between rich & poor

Inequality Q2. People like you have identified many important issues which India is facing today. I have a list of such issues. For each issue that I read out, please tell me as which political party would you trust to handle these issues.

You may choose only one party or more if you want. You may also choose ‘none of party’ if you feel that way. It doesn't matter how familiar you are with these parties as it is only your impression we are interested in.

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ISSUES & CONCERNS Voters are trusting BJP across Hindi heartland for solving majority of issues in country Party\ Issues

Price rise

AP Assam Bihar CH Goa Gujarat Haryana HP Jammu Jharkhand Karnataka Kerala MP MH Delhi Odisha Punjab RJ TN Telangana UP UK WB 12

TDP INC BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP INC BJP BJP BJP BJD INC BJP AIADMK TRS BJP BJP AITC

Law & Order Employment situation opportunity TDP INC BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP INC BJP BJP Left BJP BJP BJP BJD INC BJP AIADMK TRS BJP BJP AITC

TDP INC BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP Left BJP BJP BJP BJD INC BJP AIADMK TRS BJP BJP AITC

Corruption TDP INC BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP Left BJP BJP BJP BJD INC INC AIADMK TRS BJP BJP AITC

Gap between Infrastructure rich & poor TDP INC BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP Left BJP BJP AAP BJD INC INC AIADMK TRS BJP BJP AITC

TDP INC BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP INC BJP BJP Left BJP BJP BJP BJD INC BJP AIADMK TRS BJP BJP AITC

Inequality

Access to affordable healthcare

Access to affordable education

TDP INC BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP INC BJP BJP Left BJP BJP BJP BJD INC BJP AIADMK TRS BJP BJP AITC

TDP INC BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP INC BJP BJP Left BJP BJP BJP BJD INC BJP AIADMK TRS BJP BJP AITC

TDP INC BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP Left BJP BJP BJP BJD INC BJP AIADMK TRS BJP BJP AITC

Focus on Communal social sectors Petrol harmony andN=28668 and inclusive prices/Fuel secularism growth TDP INC BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP INC BJP BJP Left BJP BJP BJP BJD INC BJP AIADMK TRS BJP BJP AITC

TDP INC BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP Left BJP BJP AAP BJD INC BJP AIADMK TRS BJP BJP AITC

© 2018 Ipsos.

Q2. People like you have identified many important issues which India is facing today. I have a list of such issues. For each issue that I read out, please tell me as which political party would you trust to handle these issues.

You may choose only one party or more if you want. You may also choose ‘none of party’ if you feel that way. It doesn't matter how familiar you are with these parties as it is only your impression we are interested in.

TDP INC BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP Left BJP BJP BJP BJD INC BJP AIADMK TRS BJP BJP AITC

2019 ELECTION CAMPAIGN AGENDA Majority of voters think that campaign for 2019 election would revolve around developmental agenda. However, people in Assam and Kerala has slightly different opinion State

N=28668

Divisive agenda based on caste and or community, 15%

Development Issues, 85%

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Jammu Telangana Andhra Pradesh Odisha Gujarat Chhattisgarh Madhya Pradesh Himachal Pradesh Jharkhand Nct Of Delhi Bihar Goa Uttarakhand West Bengal Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh Punjab Haryana Maharashtra Tamil Nadu Karnataka Kerala Assam

Š 2018 Ipsos.

Q3. What do you think will dominate in the election campaigning for 2019

N

Development Issues

498 515 1111 2169 2147 471 2079 501 527 540 1548 531 496 1524 2092 2604 964 1046 2635 1018 1552 1029 1070

98.2 96.9 96.5 95.8 94.1 93.1 91.9 91.1 91.0 89.4 89.1 87.8 85.9 84.7 84.0 83.5 83.3 82.2 81.4 80.0 72.8 69.1 57.4

Divisive agenda based on caste and or community 1.8 3.1 3.5 4.2 5.9 6.9 8.1 8.9 9.0 10.6 10.9 12.2 14.1 15.4 16.0 16.5 16.7 17.8 18.6 20.0 27.3 30.9 42.6

2019 ELECTION CAMPAIGN AGENDA

Heads

Type

Overall Area Type

Caste

Religion

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Urban Rural General OBC SC ST Others Hinduism Islam Sikhism Christianity Jainism Buddhism Others

By Demographic cuts

Base (N)

Development Issues

28668 9564 19104 11811 9626 4605 2151 475 25266 2395 332 307 67 157 144

85.0 83.4 85.9 85.3 84.6 84.8 84.6 85.8 86.1 77.3 73.2 69.2 79.9 70.4 75.4

Š 2018 Ipsos.

Q3. What do you think will dominate in the election campaigning for 2019

Divisive agenda based on caste and or community 15.0 16.7 14.1 14.7 15.4 15.2 15.4 14.2 13.9 22.7 26.8 30.8 20.1 29.6 24.6

KEY HIGHLIGHTS - TRUST ▪ Inflation, employment opportunities, corruption and law and order are the burning issues for voters and majority of them would trust BJP as party to solve these issues. Trust is more for regional parties in their respective states mainly in Tamil Nadu, Odisha, West Bengal, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh & Telangana ▪ Matter of concern for BJP in Assam. Voters are attaching more trust towards INC to handle identified issues ▪ APP is perceived to be doing well on aspects like Infrastructure and maintaining communal harmony in Delhi ▪ Positive perception for INC in Punjab and Assam 15

© 2018 Ipsos.

VOTERS TRUST ON INSTITUTIONS, FAMILY/FRIENDS AND POLITICAL PARTIES Top 2 Box – ‘Trust a great deal’ + ‘Trust a little’

People have expressed more trust towards their ‘own family’ followed by ‘religious place’. NM has huge lead over RG in terms of trust N=28668

Institutions

Family/ Friends

Religious place

21.1

56.0

Schools/educational system

24.1

52.6

Prime Minister of Country

25.4

49

Supreme courts

24.2

48.5

Parliament

27.1

44.6

Media

29.4

38.2

Public authorities

32.9

30.2

Police

29.9

30.6

Council of ministers

33.7

24.7

Corporates

30.3

24.7

Principal Opposition Party

31.9

21.4

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© 2018 Ipsos.

Q5. How much trust do you have in... ...

Your own family 15.1

68.0

Friends

29.2

47.2

Neighbors

31.9

42.4

Community Leaders

31.8

Political Parties/ Politicians Narendra Modi

Trust a little Trust a great deal

23.6

45.2

Political Parties

33.1

21.3

Politician

32.9

20.9

28.3 Rahul Gandhi

Strangers

22.3

10.6

27.4 21.6

VOTERS TRUST ON INSTITUTIONS, FAMILY/FRIENDS AND POLITICAL PARTIES Row wise Green Highlights are Top 3%

In ‘AP, Kerala, TN’, Rahul Gandhi has gained more trust than Narendra Modi

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© 2018 Ipsos.

Q5. How much trust do you have in... ...

Corporates

Religious place

Schools / educational system

Media

Police

Narendra Modi

Rahul Gandhi

Political Parties

Politician

Your own family

Neighbors

Community Leaders

Friends

Strangers

53 59 60 58 61 51 43 35 58 63 40 65 52 64 58 51 69 39 68 41 60 43 47 49

Supreme courts

74 54 78 86 84 71 76 85 91 94 73 78 49 84 77 77 79 55 87 42 69 80 76 78

Family/Friends

Public authorities

72 64 68 83 81 63 70 85 79 86 59 79 69 78 74 74 77 45 85 46 65 75 75 68

Prime Minister of Country Principal Opposition Party

28668 1111 1070 1548 471 531 2147 1046 501 498 527 1552 1029 2079 2635 540 2169 964 2092 1018 515 2604 496 1524

Top 2 Box – ‘Trust a great deal’ + ‘Trust a little’ Political Parties/ Politicians

Council of ministers

Overall Andhra Pradesh Assam Bihar Chhattisgarh Goa Gujarat Haryana HP Jammu Jharkhand Karnataka Kerala Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra NCT of Delhi Odisha Punjab Rajasthan Tamil Nadu Telangana Uttar Pradesh Uttarakhand West Bengal

N

Parliament

Institutions

58 56 58 68 61 59 53 42 68 76 52 63 45 71 63 67 68 44 71 32 53 55 71 63

63 61 50 76 58 60 51 63 70 73 63 66 57 74 60 68 68 53 78 45 50 62 67 72

73 67 65 91 70 68 64 90 92 90 67 69 64 81 72 84 73 56 81 51 42 73 88 86

55 58 38 60 53 62 52 51 58 80 48 57 46 68 58 57 70 51 75 28 45 51 27 65

77 69 61 91 87 77 66 83 92 97 83 76 62 85 70 85 76 78 87 68 40 80 91 89

77 71 62 89 85 86 62 89 92 95 86 74 70 86 77 85 74 75 86 71 23 78 87 84

68 63 47 83 64 67 58 83 73 82 72 56 63 82 65 72 71 61 79 59 43 65 75 76

61 65 54 58 65 59 53 59 70 68 53 61 59 80 65 54 67 48 71 56 29 56 75 66

67 41 70 83 82 62 71 83 87 93 76 60 37 81 72 73 77 45 82 25 60 77 77 65

49 64 55 45 51 42 42 25 36 50 38 49 63 61 52 40 53 43 60 60 43 36 42 51

54 59 56 59 58 56 54 39 59 74 47 55 51 69 58 46 64 40 69 35 48 49 63 56

54 57 53 62 57 54 50 49 61 78 49 57 46 69 61 46 63 44 69 29 47 50 68 47

83 85 65 95 87 89 71 92 99 96 84 68 73 91 80 87 78 85 88 83 39 88 92 95

74 83 61 83 79 78 67 66 90 86 72 70 74 82 71 74 75 62 83 74 33 74 82 84

60 63 54 71 62 70 45 49 55 83 54 69 52 72 62 49 64 48 77 56 43 57 83 54

76 84 60 79 77 81 69 82 81 93 68 75 76 84 72 78 75 74 82 76 67 80 87 75

34 19 36 34 26 28 37 10 9 8 23 56 26 30 35 13 45 19 37 47 9 26 13 61

VOTERS TRUST ON INSTITUTIONS, FAMILY/FRIENDS AND POLITICAL PARTIES

By Demographic cuts

There is slight decline in trust for NM in urban areas and amongst higher SECs. Trust for NM is more in lower SECs ALL 28668 83.0 77.1 76.7 76.4 74.4 74.3 72.6 71.7

Urban 9564 81.0 74.5 74.8 74.6 71.0 71.6 70.5 68.3

Rural 19104 84.2 78.5 77.8 77.5 76.3 75.9 73.9 73.7

SEC A 7605 82.2 74.5 74.5 77.0 73.1 71.8 70.1 70.9

SEC B 8403 81.7 75.6 75.4 76.4 73.0 74.6 72.8 70.9

SEC C 6826 84.1 79.1 78.7 78.3 74.7 76.2 74.0 73.6

SEC D 4161 85.9 80.7 80.2 74.5 77.5 75.8 74.6 73.0

SEC E 1673 81.4 77.8 75.4 71.5 77.2 71.8 72.0 68.0

Media

67.6

66.7

68.1

62.9

67.5

69.7

71.2

69.0

Narendra Modi Public authorities Police Community Leaders Council of ministers Corporates Political Parties Politician Principal Opposition Party Rahul Gandhi Strangers

67.5 63.1 60.5 60.1 58.4 55.0 54.3 53.8 53.3 49.0 34.1

63.9 59.8 60.1 57.4 55.5 53.2 52.2 51.7 50.6 46.9 33.7

69.5 64.9 60.8 61.6 60.1 56.0 55.6 55.0 54.8 50.2 34.4

64.6 59.7 57.5 55.9 55.7 52.5 51.8 51.7 51.0 44.8 30.8

65.1 61.3 61.1 60.3 57.6 54.6 53.1 52.4 52.8 49.2 33.7

68.4 64.9 63.3 62.2 60.0 57.2 56.4 56.1 55.6 52.3 34.5

73.1 67.3 59.9 62.2 60.7 55.8 57.4 55.2 54.7 49.4 37.3

73.4 67.1 60.6 62.3 61.6 56.0 54.3 56.2 51.5 50.3 40.4

Base(N) Your own family Religious place Schools / educational system Friends Prime Minister of Country Neighbors Supreme courts Parliament

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© 2018 Ipsos.

Q5. How much trust do you have in... ...

KEY HIGHLIGHTS - TRUST ▪ Family comes first followed by friends, religious place and educational institutions in terms of trust.

The level of trust on family is nearly cent percent in HP followed by Jammu. While in Telangana friends are more trusted than family ▪ PMO is more trusted than Supreme court and Parliament, indicating faith on PM ▪ There is significant gap in level of trust between PM Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi.

▪ Rahul Gandhi has scored lower than general politician in terms of people trust

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© 2018 Ipsos.

Leadership Qualities & Initiatives Driven

20 20

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PERFORMANCE RATING OF THE CURRENT PRIME MINISTER AP followed by Tamil Nadu and Kerala have rated low on performance of current Prime Minister, Narendra Modi Whereas; Maharashtra, Punjab, Karnataka, WB, Goa also rated below overall average.

Overall

N=28668 DK/CS, 4.0

Poor, 18.7 Outstanding , 19.9 Average, 21.4 Good, 36.0

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Overall Jammu have Chhattisgarh Assam Gujarat Rajasthan Uttarakhand Haryana Bihar Jharkhand Madhya Pradesh Himachal Pradesh Uttar Pradesh Telengana Odisha Nct Of Delhi Maharashtra Punjab Karnataka West Bengal Goa Kerala Tamil Nadu Andhra Pradesh

Š 2018 Ipsos.

Q49. How would you rate the performance of the current Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi?

Good + Outstanding Scores 55.9 85.9 80.5 78.8 76.2 74.0 72.8 72.0 70.9 70.2 68.1 67.3 67.2 64.3 64.3 61.3 54.2 49.7 44.5 36.8 35.2 32.8

12.6 11.7

QUALITY OF LEADERSHIP Narendra Modi has significant lead over Rahul Gandhi on all leadership attributes ‘Better at enhancing India’s image abroad’ followed by ‘Risen from ranks’ leads the most Leadership Qualities

Rahul Gandhi

N=28668 Narendra Modi Difference

The leader whom I can rely on to take care of the country

26.1

55.8

29.7

Capacity for bringing in big changes

25.8

56.8

31.0

Capacity for taking big risks

24.9

57.4

32.5

More holistic, understanding of India’s developmental issues

25.3

56.2

31.0

Better in executing their plans for India’s development

25.8

56.0

30.2

Better at controlling corruption at high places

24.3

55.8

31.6

Capacity to dream big, and chase their dream best

25.0

55.9

30.9

Better at enhancing India’s image abroad

23.4

58.2

34.9

Ensure equality for all castes and religions

25.2

55.0

29.8

Risen from ranks

23.7

57.7

34.0

Honesty, personal and financial integrity

25.5

53.8

28.4

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© 2018 Ipsos.

Q50. How do voters perceive about various political leaders on different leaderships aspects

QUALITY OF NARENDRA MODI LEADERSHIP Narendra Modi - Normalization

58.2

57.7

57.4

56.8

N=28668

Leadership qualities, where it requires improvement 56.2 56.0

Better at Risen from ranks enhancing India’s image abroad

23

Capacity for taking big risks

Capacity for bringing in big changes

55.9

55.8

More holistic, Better in Capacity to dream The leader whom big, and chase I can rely on to understanding of executing their India’s plans for India’s their dream best take care of the country developmental development issues

© 2018 Ipsos.

Q50. How do voters perceive about various political leaders on different leaderships aspects

APPROVE OR DISAPPROVE ON INITIATIVES LED BY PM NARENRDA MODI Top 2 Boxes %

People have identified Swachh Bharat Abhiyan, Crackdown on Black money and Surgical strike as top three action and initiate by PM Swachh Bharat Abhiyan Initiative Digital India Initiative Crackdown on Black money

44.6

22.0

24.4

48.1

20.6

11.8

9.3 4.7

74.2

13.2

10.8 7.0

69.0

9.7

16.3

5.3

68.7

Initiative like Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana

45.1

23.4

12.8

12.3

6.4

68.6

Initiative like Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY)

44.8

23.8

14.0

10.5 6.9

68.5

Surgical strikes against Pakistan

45.6

22.2

11.5

10.5

10.3

67.8

Demonetization

43.1

Initiative like Ayushman Bharat Yojana

41.2

23.6

14.3

9.8

11.1

64.8

Make in India Initiative

42.3

22.2

13.0

10.7

11.9

64.5

Implementation of GST Strongly approve

24

52.2

Somewhat approve

38.5 Somewhat disapprove

23.7

24.3

11.9

13.5

16.8

17.0

Strongly disapprove

Š 2018 Ipsos.

Q51. Thinking about current NDA Government led by PM Narendra Modi, to what extent do you approve or disapprove of the following?

4.6

6.8 DK/CS

66.7

62.8

N=28668

APPROVE OR DISAPPROVE ON INITIATIVES LED BY PM NARENRDA MODI N=28668 Only Strongly Approve % ALL

Urban

Rural

SEC A

SEC b

SEC C

SEC D

SEC E

Swachh Bharat Abhiyan Initiative

52.2

50.4

53.3

51.2

46.9

53.6

60.1

57.5

Crackdown on Black money

48.1

45.7

49.6

47.3

43.9

48.9

55.8

50.6

Surgical strikes against Pakistan

45.6

44.7

46.2

47.7

42.2

44.8

49.7

47.2

Initiative like Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana

45.1

43.4

46.1

46.0

41.7

44.6

51.4

45.2

Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY)

44.8

42.8

45.9

45.4

40.5

45.4

50.4

46.8

Digital India Initiative

44.6

44.4

44.7

46.5

40.6

43.9

49.5

46.7

Demonetization

43.1

42.0

43.7

41.3

39.7

43.6

50.0

47.9

Make in India Initiative

42.3

41.8

42.6

45.7

39.9

39.8

45.4

42.7

Initiative like Ayushman Bharat Yojana

41.2

40.4

41.7

42.9

38.9

39.9

45.0

41.8

Implementation of GST

38.5

37.1

39.3

38.8

35.2

37.7

45.2

39.8

25

© 2018 Ipsos.

Q51. Thinking about current NDA Government led by PM Narendra Modi, to what extent do you approve or disapprove of the following?

PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER OF INDIA IN NEXT LOK SABHA ELECTION Overall more than 50% voters wanted to see Narendra Modi as PM in 2019 Whereas, voters from ‘AP, Kerala AND TN’ wanted to see Rahul Gandhi as PM in 2019

Future PM of India Narendra Modi

52.8

Rahul Gandhi

Mamta Banerjee Mayawati

26.9

4.2 2.8

Priyanka Gandhi

0.9

H. D. Deve Gowda

0.7

DK/CS

7.4

None of the above

2.4

Others

2.0

26

N=28668

N Andhra Pradesh Assam Bihar Chhattisgarh Goa Gujarat Haryana Himachal Pradesh Jammu Jharkhand Karnataka Kerala Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Nct Of Delhi Odisha Punjab Rajasthan Tamil Nadu Telangana Uttar Pradesh Uttarakhand West Bengal

1111 1070 1548 471 531 2147 1046 501 498 527 1552 1029 2079 2635 540 2169 964 2092 1018 515 2604 496 1524

Narendra Rahul H. D. Deve Priyanka Mamata None of Mayawati Others DK/CS Modi Gandhi Gowda Gandhi Banerjee the above 14.5 68.0 67.7 59.6 46.9 75.7 63.0 65.9 87.6 60.6 44.1 19.4 65.6 51.2 59.9 67.2 43.9 62.1 10.6 68.7 66.4 60.3 36.7

© 2018 Ipsos.

Q48. After the next Lok Sabha election who would you prefer as the Prime Minister of the country?

68.8 17.4 18.8 21.4 17.8 20.9 18.9 20.9 6.0 17.4 38.8 62.6 26.7 21.1 13.6 17.9 35.6 25.9 69.7 15.2 10.1 29.2 13.1

0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 2.2 0.1 1.4 0.0 0.2 1.6 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1

0.4 0.1 0.2 2.4 2.2 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.9 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.3 1.2 4.4 1.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4

0.4 0.2 0.7 2.9 1.1 0.5 6.1 0.0 0.7 2.3 1.3 1.5 1.5 3.0 4.0 0.4 3.4 2.2 2.1 0.1 9.9 3.0 0.4

3.0 1.2 0.7 0.5 1.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 2.2 0.4 1.2 0.2 1.5 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.3 3.2 0.8 0.4 0.2 39.6

1.5 1.0 1.7 0.0 1.0 0.4 3.3 0.8 0.0 0.7 0.1 0.9 0.1 4.9 1.9 1.9 8.3 0.9 1.7 1.4 4.2 0.4 0.1

7.5 10.3 9.3 11.9 23.1 1.8 6.5 6.3 5.2 15.1 6.1 2.5 4.3 10.9 13.9 10.4 3.5 3.4 6.2 10.5 5.7 5.8 8.7

3.3 1.5 0.8 1.1 5.6 0.2 0.8 5.4 0.1 1.7 3.0 4.8 0.8 4.9 5.6 0.9 2.0 0.8 4.7 3.3 3.0 0.9 0.9

KEY HIGHLIGHTS - LEADERSHIP QUALITIES & INITIATIVES DRIVEN

▪ Understandably, the country appreciated a well rounded and action oriented leader. In the current standing PM performance is well recognised across India, specially in Hindi heartland. However, PM is yet to make inroad in south (AP & TN) ▪ Highest rating of two flagship program “Swachh Bharat Abhiyan” and “Digital India”

▪ PM is highly rated on aspects like “enhancing India’s image abroad and risen from ranks ▪ There is significant gap between PM Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi in terms of trust

▪ Trust score for Rahul Gandhi is lower than general politician

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© 2018 Ipsos.

Voting Behaviour

28 28

© 2018 Ipsos.

IF TWO POLITICAL SCENARIOS BECOME REALITY IN 2019 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION. PREFERENCE OF VOTING WILL BE….

All southern belt (except Telangana), WB and Punjab would vote in favor of Grand United

Opposition alliance/ Mahagatbandhan Overall

N=28668

I will Vote in favor of Grand United Opposition alliance/ Mahagatbandhan, 42% I will Vote in favor of BJP Led Alliance/ NDA, 58%

29

Andhra Pradesh Assam Bihar Chhattisgarh Goa Gujarat Haryana Himachal Pradesh Jammu Jharkhand Karnataka Kerala Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Nct Of Delhi Odisha Punjab Rajasthan Tamil Nadu Telangana Uttar Pradesh Uttarakhand West Bengal

N

I will Vote in favor of BJP Led Alliance/ NDA

I will Vote in favor of Grand United Opposition alliance/ Mahagatbandhan

1111 1070 1548 471 531 2147 1046 501 498 527 1552 1029 2079 2635 540 2169 964 2092 1018 515 2604 496 1524

22.7 69.8 72.5 63.2 74.0 78.3 68.1 68.3 88.5 71.5 49.3 22.1 69.9 60.1 62.4 65.5 45.4 62.9 23.7 92.5 67.2 57.7 36.8

77.3 30.2 27.5 36.8 26.0 21.7 31.9 31.7 11.5 28.5 50.7 77.9 30.1 39.9 37.6 34.6 54.6 37.1 76.3 7.5 32.8 42.3 63.2

© 2018 Ipsos.

Q8. In case, two political scenarios become reality in 2019 parliamentary election. Which of two political scenarios you would prefer to vote.

REASONS FOR STRONGLY DISPOSED TOWARDS BJP LED-ALLIANCE (NDA) People would strongly disposed towards BJP led alliance because of economic development of country Overall

N=28668

Multiple Responses Reasons for strongly disposed towards BJP Led Alliance/NDA (N=16227] [Among those who will vote for BJP led alliance] Economic Development of country Because Modi is PM candidate

I will Vote in favor of Grand United Opposition alliance/ Mahagatbandhan, 42%

37.5

Enhance India image across Globe

I will Vote in favor of BJP Led Alliance/ NDA, 58%

Š 2018 Ipsos.

Q9 What makes you so strongly disposed towards BJP led alliance (NDA)?

34.0

Last 4 years performance of NDA Government

30.9

Ideology of party

30.8

Care for weaker section of the society

30.0

Incorruptible (Not susceptible to bribery)

27.2

Image of local candidate

25.6

Always been a voter of BJP/NDA

24.7

No Alternative

30

41.7

19.2

LIKELY SCENARIOS FOR BJP

[Among those who will vote for BJP led alliance]

SCENARIO 1: If Narendra Modi is NOT leader of the BJP led alliance (NDA)

Change in voting decision (N=16627) May

Change in voting decision (N=16627)

Will change, 3.0%

Will change, 5.4

No change, 80.6%

No change, 78.5

Voting decision Among those who said, ‘may change’ or ‘will change’ (N=3558)

31.6%

BJP to Congress NOTA Will not vote Don't Know/ Can't Say

change, 10.2%

DK/CS, 6.2%

May change, 16.0

BJP to other party

SCENARIO 2: If BJP failed to retain its alliance partners in NDA fold

Voting decision Among those who said, ‘may change’ or ‘will change’ (N=2211)

BJP to other party

40.6%

BJP to Congress

15.8%

16.8%

NOTA

13.3%

Will not vote

9.4% 29.8%

Don't Know/ Can't Say

15.0% 7.8% 19.8%

Q11 If Narendra Modi is NOT leader of the BJP led alliance (NDA), then would you still prefer to vote for BJP or some other party or this would have made no difference on your decision Q12 What 31 have © 2018 would been theIpsos. change in your voting decision? Q13. Let’s assume that in 2019 election, BJP FAILED to retain its alliance partners (Akali Dal, Shiv Sena, JDU, Apna Dal, other parties) in NDA fold, then would you still prefer to vote.. Q14. What would have been the change in your voting decision

LIKELY SCENARIOS FOR BJP

[Among those who will vote for BJP led alliance]

Every 6th BJP supporters may or will change their voting decision, if RSS not backing the party SCENARIO 3: If RSS decides NOT to support BJP led alliance

Every 6th BJP supporters may or will change their voting decision, if local candidate from constituency is not a BJP candidate SCENARIO 4: If local candidate from constituency is non-BJP

Change in voting decision (N=16627)

Change in voting decision (N=16627)

May change, 11.7%

May change, 12.1% Will change, 5.1%

Will change, 4.6%

No change, 83.7%

No change, 82.8%

Voting decision Among those who said, ‘may change’ or ‘will change’ (N=2710)

Voting decision Among those who said, ‘may change’ or ‘will change’ (N=2860)

BJP to other party BJP to other party BJP to Congress NOTA Will not vote Don't Know/ Can't Say

33.4%

12.5% 11.6% 8.0%

BJP to Congress NOTA Will not vote

34.6%

31.0%

Don't Know/ Can't Say

12.3% 11.5% 8.1% 37.1%

Q15 Let’s assume that in 2019 election, If RSS decides to disengage from supporting BJP led alliance in electoral process, then would you still prefer to vote .. Q16 What would have been the 32 © 2018 Ipsos. change in your voting decision Q17 Let’s assume that in 2019 election, if local candidate from your constituency is non-BJP party, then would you still prefer to vote for BJP led alliance supported.. Q18. What would have been the change in your voting decision

LIKELY SCENARIOS FOR BJP

[Among those who will vote for BJP led alliance]

Caste

SCENARIO 5: If candidate in not from same CASTE: Would you still vote to support BJP Led Alliance/ NDA? (N=16627)

No, 11.3

Not Sure, 6.4

Yes, 82.3

SCENARIO 6: If candidate in not from same RELIGION: Would you still vote to support BJP Led Alliance/ NDA? (N=16627) Not Sure, 7.4 No, 14.5

Yes, 78.1

33

Š 2018 Ipsos.

Overall Uttarakhand Jammu Bihar West Bengal Punjab Haryana Himachal Pradesh Uttar Pradesh Jharkhand Telengana Odisha Rajasthan Goa Chhattisgarh Madhya Pradesh Tamil Nadu Kerala Gujarat Maharashtra Karnataka Assam Andhra Pradesh Nct Of Delhi

Q36 If candidate in not from your caste, would you still vote for her/him to support the BJP Led Alliance/ NDA? Q37 If candidate in not from your religion, would you still vote for her/him to support the BJP Led Alliance/ NDA?

N=16627, Yes % 82.3

Overall Uttarakhand 96.7 West Bengal 95.4 Punjab 93.8 Bihar 93.2 Haryana 90.9 Telengana 90.6 Jammu 89.5 Himachal Pradesh 89.2 Chhattisgarh 86.7 Goa 86.2 Uttar Pradesh 85.2 Tamil Nadu 83.9 Jharkhand 82.4 Madhya Pradesh 82.3 Kerala 80.6 Rajasthan 79.4 Odisha 78.4 Karnataka 72.9 Maharashtra 70.8 Andhra Pradesh 67.4 Assam 66.6 Gujarat 63.1 Nct Of Delhi 52.4

Religion

N=16627, Yes % 78.1 94.9 91.2 89.6 88.6 86.2 86.1 86.0 82.1 82.1 82.0 81.9 81.8 80.4 78.9 78.0 77.8 75.8 69.2 68.3 65.4 62.8 62.1 50.6

LIKELY SCENARIOS FOR BJP

[Among those who will vote for BJP led alliance]

[By Caste and Religion cuts]

SCENARIO 5: If candidate in not from same CASTE: Caste

Religion

ALL

General

OBC

SC

ST

Others

Hinduism

Islam

Sikhism

Christianity

Jainism

Buddhism

Others

16627

7057

5806

2274

1185

195

15607

450

185

70

50

43

59

Yes

82.3

81.9

84.4

82.1

75.4

68.6

82.7

77.6

80.6

59.0

76.8

48.8

61.4

No

11.3

12.0

9.8

9.6

17.2

24.4

11.0

17.8

13.1

25.7

20.2

14.0

22.0

Not Sure

6.4

6.1

5.8

8.3

7.4

7.1

6.3

4.6

6.3

15.3

3.0

37.2

16.6

Base:=All 1 Coded at Q8

SCENARIO 6: If candidate in not from same RELIGION: Caste

Religion

ALL

General

OBC

SC

ST

Others

Hinduism

Islam

Sikhism

Christianity

Jainism

Buddhism

Others

16627

7057

5806

2274

1185

195

15607

450

185

70

50

43

59

Yes

78.1

79.8

77.2

78.2

72.7

67.1

78.3

78.2

78.2

65.7

78.5

51.2

60.0

No

14.5

13.5

15.5

12.7

18.2

25.1

14.5

14.7

10.7

23.7

15.2

11.8

18.5

Not Sure

7.4

6.8

7.2

9.2

9.1

7.9

7.2

7.0

11.1

10.6

6.4

37.0

21.5

Base:=All 1 Coded at Q8

34

© 2018 Ipsos.

Q36 If candidate in not from your caste, would you still vote for her/him to support the BJP Led Alliance/ NDA? Q37 If candidate in not from your religion, would you still vote for her/him to support the BJP Led Alliance/ NDA?

REASONS FOR STRONGLY DISPOSED TOWARDS CONGRESS LED-ALLIANCE People would strongly disposed towards Congress led alliance because of performance of previous congress led Government Overall

Reasons for strongly disposed towards Congress Led Alliance (N=12041]

[Among those who will vote for Congress led alliance]

N=28668 I will Vote in favor of Grand United Opposition alliance/ Mahagatban dhan, 42%

I will Vote in favor of BJP Led Alliance/ NDA, 58%

Performance of previous congress led Government

35.3

Ideology of party

31.6

Rahul as PM candidate

31.2

Always been a voter of congress

26.6

No Alternative

26.0

Care for weaker section of the society

25.7

Oldest party Incorruptible (Not susceptible to bribery)

35

Š 2018 Ipsos.

Q19 What makes you so strongly disposed towards Congress led alliance?

22.5 13.4

LIKELY SCENARIOS FOR CONGRESS

[Among those who will vote for Congress led alliance]

Rahul will have a tough battle of winning own supporters Every 4th respondent ‘will or may change’ their voting decision Voting decision Among those who said, ‘may change’ or ‘will change’ (N=2912)

If Rahul Gandhi is the leader of the congress: Change in voting decision (N=12041)

Congress to other party

Congress to BJP

May change, 19.0%

NOTA Will change, 5.2%

Will not vote

38.7%

9.4%

12.5%

8.2%

Don't Know/ Can't Say No change, 75.8% Q21 that in 2019 election, if Rahul Gandhi is the leader of the congress, then would you still prefer to vote for Congress or some other 36 Assume © 2018 Ipsos. party or this would have made no difference on your decision Q22. What would have been the change in your voting decision

31.3%

SCENARIOS FOR CONGRESS LED GRAND UNITED OPPOSITION ALLIANCE SCENARIO 1: If candidate in not from same CASTE: Would you still vote to support congress Led Alliance? (N=12041)

No, 10.7

Not Sure, 7.9

Yes, 81.4

SCENARIO 2: If candidate in not from same RELIGION: Would you still vote to support Congress Led Alliance? (N=12041)

Not Sure, 8.3 No, 12.2

Yes, 79.5

37

Š 2018 Ipsos.

Caste Overall Uttarakhand Jammu West Bengal Punjab Haryana Himachal Pradesh Bihar Madhya Pradesh Odisha Goa Rajasthan Jharkhand Uttar Pradesh Chhattisgarh Karnataka Tamil Nadu Kerala Telengana Assam Andhra Pradesh Maharashtra Gujarat Nct Of Delhi

[Among those who will vote for Congress led alliance]

Religion

N=12041, Yes % 81.4 98.7 98.1 95.3 95.1 91.1 89.4 89.0 88.2 88.0 87.5 87.2 84.4 84.0 82.7 80.5 79.5 74.7 74.2 73.0 71.7 66.2 65.5 45.7

Q42 If candidate in not from your caste, would you still vote for her/him to support the Grand United Opposition Alliance?

Q43 If candidate in not from your religion, would you still vote for her/him to support the Grand United Opposition Alliance?

Overall Uttarakhand West Bengal Punjab Jammu Haryana Madhya Pradesh Bihar Himachal Pradesh Goa Rajasthan Odisha Uttar Pradesh Jharkhand Tamil Nadu Chhattisgarh Kerala Assam Telengana Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Maharashtra Gujarat Nct Of Delhi

N=12041, Yes %

79.5 98.4 94.7 94.6 89.8 88.7 87.6 86.5 86.2 86.1 85.7 83.7 83.0 81.6 80.3 79.5 75.1 73.3 71.5 70.4 67.1 65.0 61.5 42.4

SCENARIOS FOR CONGRESS LED GRAND UNITED OPPOSITION ALLIANCE

[Among those who will vote for Congress led alliance]

[By Caste and Religion cuts]

SCENARIO 1: If candidate in not from same CASTE: Caste

Religion

ALL

General

OBC

SC

ST

Others

Hinduism

Islam

Sikhism

Christianity

Jainism

Buddhism

Others

12041

4754

3820

2331

966

280

9659

1945

147

237

17

114

85

Yes

81.4

80.4

82.3

85.6

72.4

78.0

80.7

89.3

86.5

73.4

89.5

46.3

67.5

No

10.7

11.6

10.0

8.1

15.3

12.4

11.4

5.3

10.0

13.2

2.0

21.6

18.3

Not Sure

7.9

8.1

7.7

6.3

12.4

9.6

7.9

5.4

3.5

13.3

8.5

32.1

14.2

Base:=All 2 Coded at Q8

SCENARIO 2: If candidate in not from same RELIGION: Caste

Religion

ALL

General

OBC

SC

ST

Others

Hinduism

Islam

Sikhism

Christianity

Jainism

Buddhism

Others

12041

4754

3820

2331

966

280

9659

1945

147

237

17

114

85

Yes

79.5

79.3

78.6

83.7

73.1

77.2

78.8

89.5

87.5

59.3

69.4

46.4

59.6

No

12.2

12.1

13.7

9.4

14.1

12.9

12.8

5.8

9.1

27.8

0.0

21.0

19.0

Not Sure

8.3

8.5

7.8

6.9

12.9

9.9

8.4

4.7

3.4

12.9

30.6

32.6

21.4

Base:=All 2 Coded at Q8

38

© 2018 Ipsos.

Q42 If candidate in not from your caste, would you still vote for her/him to support the Grand United Opposition Alliance?

Q43 If candidate in not from your religion, would you still vote for her/him to support the Grand United Opposition Alliance?

KEY HIGHLIGHTS – VOTING BEHAVIOUR ▪ As of today, the NDA has edge over UPA. But, there is a big however...The actual selection of candidates, campaign and political narratives by parties would attract and win trust and vote in the runup to election ▪ BJP is associated by economic development and strong PM but at the same time party is unable to create strong positioning around aspect like incorruptible ▪ Those supporting INC have identified performance of previous INC Government as key reason ▪ INC does not have candidate for PM post to match stature of Narendra Modi

39

© 2018 Ipsos.

About Mahagatbandhan

40 40

Š 2018 Ipsos.

POSSIBILITY OF FORMATION OF ‘MAHAGATBANDHAN’ Majority (51%) says either ‘No or not sure’ about formation of Mahagatbandhan Formation of Mahagatbandhan N=28668

Not sure, 16.7 Yes, 49.1

No, 34.2

41

© 2018 Ipsos.

Q23 Do you think Mahagatbandhan shall work?

Andhra Pradesh Assam Bihar Chhattisgarh Goa Gujarat Haryana Himachal Pradesh Jammu Jharkhand Karnataka Kerala Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Nct Of Delhi Odisha Punjab Rajasthan Tamil Nadu Telangana Uttar Pradesh Uttarakhand West Bengal

N 1111 1070 1548 471 531 2147 1046 501 498 527 1552 1029 2079 2635 540 2169 964 2092 1018 515 2604 496 1524

Yes 68 38 46 48 28 37 48 29 35 41 51 62 63 45 35 48 65 51 52 90 44 51 35

No 14 39 40 25 16 48 46 39 25 33 38 24 32 28 35 29 29 33 38 7 40 47 40

Not sure 18 24 14 27 56 15 6 32 40 25 11 14 6 27 30 24 6 16 11 3 15 2 24

POSSIBLE IMPACT OF ‘MAHAGATBANDHAN’ – BY STATE-WISE

Highly Agree %

Majority (49%) says, if Mahagatbandhan forms, it will give a tough fight to BJP alliance.

Vote consolidation due to The Mahagatbandhan will have It will give It will induce The Mahagatbandhan High risk of fragmentation in Mahagatbandhan will put no impact on BJP performance tough fight to fragmentation in will turn 2019 election Mahagatbandhan due to clash congress in advantageous N in states where it has direct fight BJP alliance BJP alliance into bi-polar contest of political leader’s ego position in states where it has with Congress direct fight with BJP Overall 28668 49.0 36.6 34.6 32.2 31.9 31.0 Andhra Pradesh 1111 58.2 50.0 59.5 44.4 48.2 50.6 Assam 1070 32.4 32.7 24.7 14.3 18.8 15.5 Bihar 1548 57.2 38.6 36.1 33.8 31.4 36.0 Chhattisgarh 471 50.2 35.1 36.9 33.2 34.3 31.9 Goa 531 20.5 21.5 12.9 14.2 13.0 16.6 Gujarat 2147 47.0 24.4 31.2 28.7 26.0 31.5 Haryana 1046 38.2 28.6 26.4 18.9 20.0 18.2 Himachal Pradesh 501 44.6 51.0 49.5 62.1 49.0 38.6 Jammu 498 62.7 35.7 34.5 36.4 35.6 35.9 Jharkhand 527 56.8 32.8 28.1 23.1 27.7 26.2 Karnataka 1552 45.7 25.8 11.8 17.3 14.4 12.6 Kerala 1029 47.6 32.4 36.9 32.7 34.0 26.1 Madhya Pradesh 2079 65.4 46.3 51.5 44.9 44.2 43.6 Maharashtra 2635 43.7 35.1 31.3 27.0 28.8 27.3 Nct Of Delhi 540 40.5 35.8 39.4 28.9 36.2 35.3 Odisha 2169 33.9 31.7 29.8 23.6 26.7 27.4 Punjab 964 58.6 39.2 39.5 37.2 39.9 39.0 Rajasthan 2092 62.0 34.4 44.1 45.6 40.8 36.9 Tamil Nadu 1018 44.3 38.1 35.6 33.7 31.6 33.5 Telangana 515 3.7 50.4 1.6 2.0 2.6 2.4 Uttar Pradesh 2604 47.7 35.5 36.1 34.0 35.5 34.8 Uttarakhand 496 35.7 25.3 25.9 28.4 29.1 27.7 West42Bengal© 2018 Ipsos.

1524 61.2 41.9 37.1 45.0 38.4 30.4

Q24 In you opinion, what would be the impact of ‘Mahagatbandhan’?

Current Burning Issues

44 44

Š 2018 Ipsos.

BURNING ISSUES # 1: RAFALE DEAL

N=15767

N=28668 Rafale Deal – An issue ahead of 2019 parliamentary election Not Sure, 16

Slightly Disagree ,6

No, 29

Yes

45

Corruption allegations made by Congress accusing PM Modi on Rafale Deal

Yes, 55

No

Not Sure

Strongly Disagree, 19

Strongly Agree, 43

Slightly Agree, 22 Neither Agree nor Disagree, 11

Agree Disagree Neither (Strongly (Strongly Agree nor Agree + Disagree + Disagree Slightly Agree) Slightly Disagree) Andhra Pradesh 86 9 5 Assam 58 14 28 Bihar 61 6 33 Chhattisgarh 35 15 50 Goa 25 38 37 Gujarat 58 11 30 Haryana 51 5 43 Himachal Pradesh 37 14 50 Jammu 10 12 79 Jharkhand 48 12 40 Karnataka 66 15 19 Kerala 79 12 9 Madhya Pradesh 69 8 23 Maharashtra 75 10 15 Nct Of Delhi 83 6 10 Odisha 78 7 16 Punjab 74 15 11 Rajasthan 56 7 37 Tamil Nadu 78 8 14 Telangana 28 5 66 Uttar Pradesh 56 14 31 Uttarakhand 12 6 82 West Bengal 49 18 34

© 2018 Ipsos.

Q53 Will Rafale deal be an issue ahead of 2019 elections? Q54 Do you agree with the corruption allegations made by Congress accusing PM Modi on Rafale Deal?

BURNING ISSUES # 2: AYODHYA RAM TEMPLE

Close to 3/4th says, Ayodhya Ram temple will become an election issue in the run-up to the 2019 Lok Sabha election

Support if Government brings in ordinance in favor of building Ram Temple in Ayodhya

N=28668 N=28668

No, 25.7

No, 25.0

Yes, 74.3

46 2018 Ipsos.

Q54.

Will © Ayodhya Ram temple become an election issue in the run-up to the 2019 Lok Sabha election?

Q55. Will you support if Government brings in ordinance in favour of building Ram Temple in Ayodhya?

Yes, 75.0

Comparison – 4 States (Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Telangana)

47 47

© 2018 Ipsos.

Only for 4 states

ISSUES & CONCERNS (PRE & POST 2018 ASSEMBLY ELECTION RESULTS)

[Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan & Telangana]

Voters are trusting BJP more than INC for solving majority of issues in country N=5157 BJP

Pre Assembly Election Results N=5157

INC

56

Law and Order situation

Communal harmony and secularism

52 31

27

27

33

34

39

Employment opportunity in Government sector

33

33 30 31

47 Corruption

Social sectors and inclusive 40 growth

33

35 38

Corruption

31

30 30

Access to affordable50 healthcare

38 32

39

31

31

Access to affordable 51 education

Law and Order situation

39

39 Employment opportunity in Communal harmony and secularism Government sector

49

Social sectors and inclusive 50 growth

Petrol prices/Fuel

49

57

INC

Price rise

Price rise Petrol prices/Fuel

BJP

Post Assembly Election Results N=5802

29

33

29 48 Infrastructure

Access to affordable 40 education

50 48 Inequality

Gap between rich & poor

34

Access to affordable healthcare

33 33

39

32

Infrastructure

38

40 37

Gap between rich & poor

Inequality

48

© 2018 Ipsos.

Q2. People like you have identified many important issues which India is facing today. I have a list of such issues. For each issue that I read out, please tell me as which political party would you trust to handle these issues. You may choose only one party or more if you want. You may also choose ‘none of party’ if you feel that way. It doesn't matter how familiar you are with these parties as it is only your impression we are interested in.

Only for 4 states

ISSUES & CONCERNS (PRE & POST 2018 ASSEMBLY ELECTION RESULTS)

[Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan & Telangana]

Voters are trusting BJP across Hindi heartland for solving majority of issues in country N=5157 Party\ Issues

Deteriorated Sufficient Gap Employment Rise in Price rise Law & Order Infrastructur between opportunity corruption situation e rich & poor

Inequality

Focus on Easy access Easy access Communal social to to harmony Petrol sectors and affordable affordable and prices/Fuel inclusive healthcare education secularism growth

CHH

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

MP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

RAJ

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

TEL

TRS

TRS

TRS

TRS

TRS

TRS

TRS

TRS

TRS

TRS

TRS

TRS

Voters are trusting BJP across Hindi heartland for solving majority of issues in country

N=5802

CHH

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

MP

BJP

INC

INC

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

RAJ

INC

INC

INC

INC

INC

INC

INC

INC

INC

INC

INC

INC

TEL

TRS

TRS

TRS

TRS

TRS

TRS

TRS

TRS

TRS

TRS

TRS

TRS

Q2. People like you have identified many important issues which India is facing today. I have a list of such issues. For each issue that I read out, please tell me as which political party would you trust to handle these issues. You may choose only one party or more if you want. You may also choose ‘none of party’ if you feel that way. It doesn't matter how familiar you are with these parties as it is only your impression we are interested in.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS - ANALYSIS ON TRUST (PRE & POST 2018 ASSEMBLY ELECTION RESULTS)

▪

Only for 4 states [Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan & Telangana]

Though Inflation, employment opportunities, corruption and law and order are the burning issues for voters and majority of them have trusted BJP as party to solve these issues in pre-election period. The gap between the parties

have narrowed in the survey conducted after assembly election 2018 results. This might be because of loan waiver announcement and other election manifesto of INC played a key role in drawing attention of voters.

▪

TRS is believed to be a strongest party among voters in Telangana and have very high trust associated towards TRS in

resolving their issues. This has reflected in both pre and post assembly election.

▪

Post Assembly election results, voters have shown more trust towards INC in resolving issues concerning people, which might be a matter of concern for BJP.

▪

INC is perceived to be doing well on aspects like law & order and generation of employment.

Only for 4 states

VOTERS TRUST ON INSTITUTIONS (PRE & POST 2018 ASSEMBLY ELECTION RESULTS)

[Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan & Telangana]

In institutions, voters have expressed more trust towards PM of the country.

Principal opposition party and corporates are among the least and have low trust compared to other institutions.

Top 2 Box – ‘Trust a great deal’ + ‘Trust a little’ Institutions Post Assembly Election Results N=5802 Pre Assembly Election Results N=5157 Prime Minister of Country

Prime Minister of Country

79.3

Parliament

78.2

Religious place

Religious place

77.4

Supreme courts

70.9

Schools/ educational system

69.2

Schools/ educational system

74.1

Supreme courts

72.0

Parliament

Media

71.1

Media

Public authorities

51

82.2

68.6

Council of ministers

66.3

Police

65.5

Principal Opposition Party

64.4

Corporates

63.7

© 2018 Ipsos.

Q5. How much trust do you have in... ...

74.2

67.0 64.8

Public authorities Police Council of ministers

63.0 60.6 57.4

Corporates

51.3

Principal Opposition Party

49.6

VOTERS TRUST ON FAMILY/FRIENDS, POLITICAL PARTIES/POLITICIANS (PRE &POST ASSEMBLY ELECTION)

Only for 4 states [Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan & Telangana]

No change has been observed in trust hierarchy towards “own family, friends, neighbor, community leaders and strangers” There is significant gap in level of trust between PM Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi.

Top 2 Box – ‘Trust a great deal’ + ‘Trust a little’

Family/Friends Pre Assembly; N=5157 Post Assembly; N=5802

Political Parties/ Politicians Pre Assembly; N=5157 Post Assembly; N=5802

Your own family

79.4

Friends

77.7

Friends

79.3

Your own family

77.0

Neighbors

72.8

Community Leaders

66.7

Neighbors

27.8

63.3

Political Parties

53.3

Politician

63.2

Politician

52.2

72.2

Community Leaders

Strangers

65.4

Political Parties

62.8 Rahul Gandhi

Strangers

77.6 Narendra Modi

Narendra Modi

55.8

Rahul Gandhi

49.2

24.2

Top 2 Box – ‘Trust a great deal’ + ‘Trust a little’

52

© 2018 Ipsos.

Q5. How much trust do you have in... ...

INC HAS REPLACED THE BJP IN THREE STATES – MP, RAJ & CH, WILL VICTORY OF INC IMPACT THE 2019 GENERAL ELECTION (POST ASSEMBLY ELECTION RESULTS 2018] Multiple Responses

Dipstick, N=5802

CH N=1027

MP N=2144

RAJ N=2128

Telangana N=503

61.6

59.7

70.3

30.3

61.3

61.9

67.8

22.6

49.7

72.9

54.1

53.8

18.6

49.4

52.7

57.6

60.6

12.7

68.5

53.8

53.1

13.6

57.9

48.8

56.1

17.3

57.2

46.7

55.3

21.7

Figures in %

No Change in Narendra Modi Popularity 57.7 My perception about BJP have improved 56.2 Rahul Gandhi is emerging as serious and mature leader

No Change in perception about BJP

INC emerging as stronger competition to BJP

47.8

Narendra Modi magic is fading 46.3 My perception about BJP has reduced 46.0 53

© 2018 Ipsos.

5A. In recent assembly elections, INC has replaced the BJP in three states – Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. In your opinion will this victory of INC impact the 2019 general election?

Only for 4 states [Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan & Telangana]

INC HAS WON IN THREE STATES. IMPROVEMENT IN ACCEPTABILITY OF RAHUL GANDHI AS POSSIBLE CANDIDATE FOR PM POSITION IN MAHAGATBANDHAN

Acceptability of Rahul as PM candidate (N=5802)

DK/CS, 23.2

N

Yes

No

DK/CS

Chhattisgarh

1027

55.0

29.3

15.8

Madhya Pradesh

2144

33.0

33.4

33.7

Rajasthan

2128

55.1

36.6

8.3

Telangana

503

34.3

31.9

33.8

Yes, 43.2

No, 33.6

54

© 2018 Ipsos.

34A. INC has won in three states. Will it improve acceptability of Rahul Gandhi as possible candidate for PM position in Mahagatbandhan?

Only for 4 states

PARTY VOTED IN JUST CONCLUDED ASSEMBLY ELECTION 2018 Overall (All 4 states) BJP

39%

INC

TRS

BSP

NCP

JCC

Others

DK/CS

55

N=5802

37% 4% 3% 3% 1% 4% 9%

BJP

40%

INC

39%

SP

1%

NCP

1%

CPI-M

1%

CPI

1%

AAP

1%

JD-U

1%

BSCP

0.1%

BASD

0.1%

DK/CS

INC

45.3% INC

BJP

44.5%

BSP

NCP

0.3%

NPP

0.1%

NPEP

0.1%

DK/CS

© 2018 Ipsos.

5B. Which party did you voted in the JUST CONCLUDED assembly election?

42%

INC

29%

BJP

6.0%

23%

2.1%

AAP

Others

33.7%

TRS

3.6% JCC

11%

39.6%

BJP

5%

Telangana

Chhattisgarh

Rajasthan

Madhya Pradesh

BSP

[Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan & Telangana]

BSP

1.2%

CPI

0.3%

AAP

0.1%

AIMIM

1%

CPI-M

1%

TDP

0.2%

DK/CS

4%

0.1%

3.9%

DK/CS

19.1%

POSSIBLE SHIFT OF VOTES FROM LAST ASSEMBLY ELECTION TO 2019 GENERAL ELECTION Amongst voters of recent assembly election N=1027

N=2128

N=503

MP

Chhattisgarh

Rajasthan

Telangana

65% of them would vote again for same party in general election

88% of them would vote again for same party in general election

89% of them would vote again for same party in general election

86% of them would vote again for same party in general election

N=2144

35% Contribution to 35% votes – INC – 12% ;Undecided 12%; BSP 4%; BJP 2%; NCP 2%; and Others 3%

Shift

12% Contribution to 12% votes – BJP – 4% ; INC 7%; Others 1%

Shift

11% Contribution to 11% votes – BJP – 3% ; INC 6% and BSP 1%

5F.56Will you voteIpsos. for same party if parliamentary election had to happen today? © 2018 Q7. Imagine that the election for the Lok Sabha is to be held in a few days from now. Which party will you vote for?

Shift

14% Contribution to 14% votes – TRS – 4% ; BJP 4% and INC 6%;

POSSIBLE SHIFT OF VOTES FROM LAST ASSEMBLY ELECTION TO 2019 GENERAL ELECTION Amongst voters of recent assembly election N=1027

N=2128

N=503

MP

Chhattisgarh

Rajasthan

Telangana

65% of them would vote again for same party in general election

88% of them would vote again for same party in general election

89% of them would vote again for same party in general election

86% of them would vote again for same party in general election

N=2144

35% Distribution of 35% votes – BJP – 22% ; INC 6%; NCP 3%; BSP 2%; SP 1%; CPI-M 1% and Others 2%

Shift

12% Distribution of 12% votes – BJP – 6% ; INC 3%; BSP 1% AAP 1%; Others 1%

Shift

11% Distribution of 11% votes – BJP – 7.5% ; INC 2.5% and NCP 1%

5F.57Will you voteIpsos. for same party if parliamentary election had to happen today? © 2018 Q7. Imagine that the election for the Lok Sabha is to be held in a few days from now. Which party will you vote for?

Shift

14% Distribution of 14% votes – TRS – 5% ; BJP 5%; INC 1%; BSP 1%; YSRCP 1%; Others 2%