THE FUTURE OF FOOD
IN 2028 FOR THE 50+
KATHARINA GERKEN | MELIS KOKENEK Mino r Global Tre n dwat chin g Trend Fu t u re S ce n arios By Vin ce n t A lbe rs
TREND FUTURE SCENARIOS
MANAGEMENT SUMMARY Being future proof in today’s fast-pace world is a necessity for companies in all industries and under no circumstances simple. Driven by demographical, economical, socio-cultural, technological, environmen-tal and political changes, also the Dutch supermarket giant Albert Heijn needs to expand its company and brand awareness in order to be future proof.
The aim of this research paper on Albert Heijn is to analyse the internal, as well as external environ-ment of the company. The supermarket’s customer, specified in the generation 50+, as well as the future of food is considered to, later on, determine innovative recommendations for the future of Albert Heijn in 2028. In order to carry out the research in diverse manners, both qualitative and quantitative research meth-ods are used. One of the most significant approach of research was the execution desk research. By all means, statistics and information from databases such as CBS or Euromonitor, as well as Forbes or the Guardian back up the given findings. As a result of intensive research and brainstorming, the following outcomes were noticeable. Albert Heijn is one of the most relevant Dutch food suppliers for the industry. Albert Heijn’s success is due to its truly unique ability of listening to the market and its customer, as well as the company’s motivated workforce. With innovative ideas like its online grocery store or its home delivery service, the Dutch supermarket is responding to the ongoing change by always keeping its customer and the food’s quali-ty in mind. However, every successful company has its pitfalls, that need to be improved in order to become fu-ture proof and remain successful. In 2028, the worst-case scenario of the future of food, as seen from the 50+ generations’ eyes, is about ‘THE BIG HUNGER’. The future is predicted to be meatless, while genetic engineering is not function-ing. Therefore, people cannot provide the main nutrient protein from meat, nor can they consume other alternatives. These circumstances can lead to a physically weak, unhealthy and delicate genera-tion of 50+ consumers. Albert Heijn’s solution to that problem could be the implementation of offering insects, a highly nutritious and more sustainable source of protein and nutrition. On the other hand, the best-case scenario for the future of food is including ‘MULTILATERAL NOUR-ISHMENT’, where food is extremely close to be perfect in all aspects. The creation of vegan food alter-natives to meat become true and as a result of genetic engineering’s right functioning, the perfect food production has taken place – vegetables and fruits which look and taste great, as well as nourish the body to the fullest. The generation 50+ has the possibility to build up their diet according to their special needs and intolerances to increase their lifespan. Next to Albert Heijn’s comprehensive and colourful view on food, the supermarket is offering food with a high nutritional and healthy value to an affordable price. To ensure being future proof, Albert Heijn has to prepare for both possible future of food in 2028 by keeping the 50+ generation in mind.
CONTENT CONTENT
TREND FUTURE SCENARIOS
01
INTRODUCTION
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EXTERNAL ANALYSIS
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DESTEP ANALYSIS
07
ALBERT HEIJN
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IMPACT DIAGRAM
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FUTURE SCENARIOS
17
RECOMMENDATIONS
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REFERENCE LIST
1/ I N T R O D U C T I O N
2028
How could the food industry in look like? In what way will the supermarkets evolve? Which steps need to be taken by companies to ensure future proofness?
Dear Reader, Food has played a key role in determining the history and social behaviour of humanity. The importance of food shows no signs to decrease in the near future. In this research, we would like to guide you through our predictions of the future of food with the help of four future scenarios. Based on trends, we created impact diagrams as well as implication trees to structure the creative future. Afterwards, we have created four earthly future scenarios by examining the technological improvements, recent innovations and interpret the information we found in terms of demographical, social and economic changes. The outcome is a recommendation on how the Dutch supermarket chain Albert Heijn should prepare for the possible futures in 2028 to stay profitable. Within this “Trend to Forecast� report, we assure to draw a plausible future scenario on the Dutch food industry and supermarket landscape shaped by future trends. Always keep the future in mind - stay profitable by ensuring future proofness.
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TREND FUTURE SCENARIOS
22 00 22 88 22 00 22 88 22 00 22 88 22 00 22 88 2
3 / E X T E R N A L A N A LY S I S FUTURE OF FOOD WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE CITIES-IN-THE-FUTURE-AHEAD-OF-US ? LAB-GROWN MEAT
Producing meat in the laboratory – the new way of preventing environmental problems such as gas emissions and overfishing and retain a sustainable approach towards the meat industry. Researches show that producing meatballs with stem cells from animals is possible. By patterning stem cells into animal tissue, synthetic meat is produced. Scientifics say that lab-cultured meat would cost around 45% less energy, 90% less CO2 emission and 99% less lands than what are used today.
INSECTS Often,insects are tried out as an alternate food choice, especially in areas with a scarcity of nutritional options. They cost less, feed on cheaper food, and provide more than adequate nutrition. Already, stores offer pasta which is containing cricket flour to add extra proteins in a meal. Besides, buying crickets and grasshoppers at a local store is already an option, which will be a standard in the future.
ALGAE
Microalgae are tiny green critters, which contain massive amounts of proteins, fats, and carbohydrates which provide essential nutrients. Some species of algae have omega three fat acids which are also good for health. The green super-power of the food’s future.
GENETIC-MODIFIED FOOD
Genetic modification even increases in the future. In today’s society, we already eat a tremendous amount on genetically modified food such as corn, soybeans, potatoes and other vegetables and fruits. Making use of the gene editing tool CRISPR/Cas-9, scientists will not stop to create the “perfect” food. Non-browning apples, non-bruising potatoes and virus-resistant pigs might be in near future.
3D PRINTED FOOD
Everything is being 3D-printed these days, so why keep the food left out? The phenomenon of 3D printing of foods can help in cutting down the cooking time while offering a tasty, easy-to-eat and create an option for people who can’t or don’t want to spend their time cooking.
SUSTAINABLE FOOD-PACKAGING
It takes a lot of time let the plastic, which is dumped in nature disappear. Based on environmental issues like climate change and the general environmental pollution, companies look for solutions and alternatives to ban plastic – especially in the food industry. For example, producing soft sachets made of caramelized sugar and wax or a mixture of algae and water, as well as making use of recycled plastic.
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TREND FUTURE SCENARIOS
Picture by Steve Roe (2018)
FUTURE OF FOOD FUTURE OF FOOD FUTURE OF FOOD
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4 / D E S T E P A N A LY S I S DEMOGRAPHIC
In 2017, the Netherlands had a population of 17,08 million people, whereof 18,2% of the Dutch citizens were at the age of 65+. The forecast regarding elderly people predicts that in 2025, over 25% of the Dutch will be 65 years and older. In 2016, it was anticipated that new-born Dutch girls would have a life expectancy of 83 years, whereas boys would turn around 80 years. The life expectancy of people is predicted to grow further, since technology and medicine are developing.
ECONOMIC
The aging population in the Netherlands will affect the market for companies. Customer demand is changing and older target groups spend their money differently than younger ones. Although the Dutch are spending a smaller and smaller portion of their budget on food, they are eating more, and eating more varied. Today, the largest share of the food budget is spent on meat and fish: around 26 cents of every Dutch euro spent on food. Bread and cereal products account for 21 percent, followed by fruit, vegetables and potatoes (19 percent) and dairy products (14 percent). About 10 percent of the food budget is spent on spices, condiments, sauces and ready meals.
SOCIAL-CULTURAL
According to the index “Good Enough to Eat”, the Netherlands is the healthiest country in the world, based on relatively low food prices, low prevalence of diabetes, and better nutritional diversity. Even though the Dutch are spending their largest share of the food budget on meat, the meat and diary consumption is declining. In, 2015 the average Dutch had 75.4 kilos of meat in total, which is almost a kilo less than in 2014. Organic meat is also becoming more popular.
TECHNOLOGICAL // ECOLOGICAL
Eating less meat has made way for vegetarian and vegan protein options to rise. Nowadays, many Dutch consumers are turning into flexitarians and limit their meat intake. Eating less meat is considered healthier and more conscious in today’s society In the Netherlands, the company De Vegetarische Slager, calls itself the world’s first vegetarian butcher. It produces vegetarian and vegan charcuteries. 3D printing for food is on the rise. A way to solve the shortage of food due to a growing population is 3D printing technology. The Dutch company Foodjet has assembled a 3D food printer. The company wants to start 3D printing complete meals for elderly people. Both trends complete the sustainable and conscious life and consumption of the Dutch.
POLITICAL Eating less meat is not only a trend, but also a political recommendation. The Dutch Nutrition Centre recommend Dutch people to eat less meat. According to the guidelines , people should eat no more than two servings (500 gr) of meat per week. The Nutrition Center calls red meat “high-carbon”, and limits the intake of red meat to 300 grams a week. Finding other alternatives and sources of protein like nuts is highly recommended.
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TREND FUTURE SCENARIOS
Graph by The World Factbook (2018)
Graph by CBS (2012)
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5/ABOUT ALBERT H E I J N
MISSION “Albert Heijn makes the everyday affordable and the special accessible. With us you will find all daily groceries in excellent quality.” (Albert Heijn, 2018)
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VISION “Building a brand in retail is not always easy, especially in a forever changing environment. After all, we all have stores and sell the same products. ” (Dick Boer, CEO Albert Heijn, 2018)
TREND FUTURE SCENARIOS
Picture by Albert Heijn (2017)
Founded in 1887, Albert Heijn is the most established supermarket chain in the Netherlands. The industry in the Netherlands is worth 33.8 billion euros and is mainly dominated by Albert Heijn and the chain Jumbo. With more than 850 shops in the Netherlands, Albert Heijn is the go-to supermarket. Stores offer a wide range of high-quality items, long opening hours, online shopping and good service. On top, Albert Heijn is having its own line of organic products, a home delivery service as well as its own magazine. With a future outlook, it is safe to say that Albert Heijn will be around for more years.
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HIGH Predetermined Elements/ Trends
Potential Impact
G F
Uncertainty
A FOOD PILLS
HIGH
B GENETIC ENGENEERING (GENE MANIPULATION IN FOOD) C MEATLESS FUTURE D 3D PRINTING E VERTICAL FARMING F ONLINE SUPERMARKETS G SMART FARMING (E-FARMING) H CLOSED LOOP ECONOMY
BLACK SWANS
T R E N D S
1 C HB E 3 4 A 2 D
Secondary Elements
LOW
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Critical Uncertainties
1 WAR 2 FOD PRODUCTION SCANDALS 3 MISAPPLIED INGRIDIENTS 4 GENETIC ENGENEERING CATASTROPHE
TREND FUTURE SCENARIOS
C H O S E N C R I T I C A L U N C E R TA I N T I E S
GENETIC ENGINEERING
Genetic engineering is a discipline of engineering that focuses on researches such as the isolation, modification and transfer of genes in order to modify, develop and regulate the functions of organisms. Genetic engineering is used by scientists to enhance or modify the characteristics of an individual organism. For instance, in plants, genetic engineering has been applied to improve the resilience, nutritional value and growth rate of crops such as potatoes, tomatoes and rice. Besides, for many farmers, genetic engineering crops require much less work and provide a larger yield, which offsets the substantially higher cost of genetic engineering seed. Since genetic engineering has a number of useful applications, including scientific research, agriculture and technology, we thought it would take an important place in the future. Genetic engineering is of highest interest for future living, since its future is extremely uncertain because in today’s zeitgeist technology is on the rise. The consequences of genetic engineering are of highest importance for the food industry and its consumers.
MEATLESS FUTURE When we overview the researches on future, the most important innovations in food are about meat, and how to replace/re-create it. The main aim is to keep the meat, but remove the animal. According to scientific reports, 30% of the calories consumed globally by humans come from meat products, including beef, chicken and pork. But cultivating animals for the feeding of the human population is a highly inefficient method. For example, animals raised in the United States are consuming cereals and soybeans that could feed five times more than the current population. This production system does not seem to be neither sufficient nor sustainable in the future, which made ‘meatless future’ an interesting topic for our research. By providing new food sources, meal and dairy substitutes could further chip away at traditional meat market share. In the next few years, we can even expect to see the cost of lab-grown meat decrease considerably. Regardless of the hurdles to a meatless future, clean meat products are clearly diversifying and growing, capturing investor and public attention alike. A meatless future would change the nutrition landscape as well as the economy completely and therefore has a tremendous impact on our future. Besides, the future of meat if definitely uncertain regarding new technologies as well as consumer behaviours.
GENETIC ENGENEERING CATASTROPHE Genetic engineering is definitely on the rise – but imagine the worst-case scenario. When genes are to be introduced into host cells, they do not come alone. After the donor DNA has been cut into many pieces, it is then inserted into bacterial plasmids, and in this form, the genes can be duplicated to any number necessary. Then, they must overcome the host cell’s defences against invasion of foreign DNA. Likewise, older methods of genetic modification would eventually breed out of populations, these new techniques can leverage ‘selfish’ genes that force organisms to pass modifications to offspring. Basically, we can now wipe out entire species with a single mistake. Therefore, in this new world of genetic engineering, which we are entering so rapidly, the global society must be aware of possible consequences. Genetic engineering brings a high uncertainty, as well as an extremely high impact with it.
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7/FUTURE SCENARIO 2028
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TREND FUTURE SCENARIOS
UNCERTAINTY 1A
E N G E N E E R I N G
INDUSTRIAL H E A L T H
UNCERTAINTY 1B
MEATFUL FUTURE Nutrition based on meat
M E A T
G E N E T I C
O F
Genetic Engeneering adds to life/ nutrition = variety in species
UNCERTAINTY 2B Genetic Engeneering catastrophe = no specias at all
M E AT FEAST
F U T U R E
UNCERTAINTY 2A
THE BIG HUNGER
T H E
M U LT I L AT E R A L NOURISHMENT
IN THE FOOD INDUSTRY
MEATLESS FUTURE Nutrition without any meat
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1
MULTILATERAL NOURISHMENT
Food is very close to be perfect in all aspects. Creation of vegan food which taste like meat with perfect ingredients regarding proteins has come true. An awareness for healthy nutrition and conscious eating is increasing rapidly in the society. In fact, we can say that healthy eating is becoming more of a lifestyle than only a necessity. As a result of genetic engineering’s right functioning, a perfect food production has taken place. At the same time, meat production is done through genetic engineering and thus the consumption of animal meat is terminated. There are various alternatives for meat, and animals are not a part of the production process anymore. Meat is produced in laboratory environment by a number of stem cell methods. On the other hand, fruits, vegetables and cereals are also extremely nutritious and closest to being perfect. We can get both carbs and protein for healthy muscle growth, repair and energy.
WHAT DOES THE GENERATION 50+ EAT AND DRINK IN 2028? With the development of food trends that have entered in our lives in the recent period, people have overcome many nutrition problems that has been encountered in daily life. There is a choice of food for every group and age, especially for the elderly consumers. The generation 50+ has the possibility to build up their diet according to their special needs and intolerances.
HOW DOES A SUPERMARKET LOOK LIKE IN 2028?
Looking at the supermarkets, we are facing a very comprehensive and colorful view. Food with high nutritional value and healthy fruit-vegetables, laboratory-produced vegan meats, carbohydrates and starch-rich cereals are all common and affordable.
SELF-CARE INCREA SED AWARENESS ON SELF-CARE
INCREASING H E A LT H
> Better nutrition for infants and eldery people
MULTILATERAL NOURISHMENT
MORE EFFICIENT
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INCREASED QUALITY OF LIFE > increase on physical strength
SUPERMARKETS SHAPE CULTURE
PERFECT NUTRITION HEALTH BOOM > Fo o d n o t a s a basic need, but as a lifestyle
IMPLICATION
V E G A N F O O D
STRONG GENERATIONS > increase on ohysical strength
TREND FUTURE SCENARIOS The future is predicted to be meatless, while genetic engineering is not functioning. In such a case, people cannot consume meat and other aliment sources where they can gain the necessary nutrients. Consumers are the victims of a failed genetic engineering intervention.
WHAT DOES THE GENERATION 50+ EAT AND DRINK IN 2028? Therefore, people cannot provide the main nutrient ‘protein’ that they gain mostly from meat, nor can they consume it in other alternatives. These circumstances can lead to physically weak, unhealthy and delicate generations. When we consider people at the age of 50 and older, we see that they do not have a clear display in such a possible future. In undernourished elderly; reduction in muscle mass and muscle strength increases the risk of fracture and reduces physical capacity. Hospitalisation, infectious diseases and mortality rates would rise. In fact, 50+ people can lose their lives at an early age because they cannot meet their energy needs sufficiently. Since the highlight of this scenario is missing/wrong nourishment, the average human life can be shortened in a few generations.
HOW DOES A SUPERMARKET LOOK LIKE IN 2028?
N O M E AT FAILING GE
LESS SUPERMARKETS COLLA P S E OF CHAIN STORES > economic crisis M I S S I N G NOURISHMENT
A LT E R N AT I V E PROTEIN SOURCES > grain / insects
HIGH NUTRITIONAL FOOD BECOMES EXPENSIVE Upper class can afford Lower class can not afford > war / hunger / desease
2
THE BIG HUNGER
D E L I CAT E GENERATIONS > decrease on physical strength
N AT U R A L SELECTION
POPULATION DECREASE
MORE ANIMALS LESS HUMAN
STRUGGLE FOR INFANTS & ELDERY PEOPLE
THE BIG HUNGER
IMPLICATION
A promising solution here might be insects. Insects that are highly nutritious are also more sustainable sources of protein than meat. Even today, many people see insects as an alternative to meat. When we look at supermarkets, we do not see a very colorful landscape. The basic pattern is cheap and accessible food rich in carbohydrates, cereals and starches that will serve to increased world population. On the other hand, food prices with high nutritional value may increase significantly. This causes high-income groups to reach these nutrients and serious hunger problems in the third world countries might come up.
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3
INDUSTRIAL H E A L T H
The future is quite similar to today’s nutrition habits. Massive amounts of meat are consumed, while genetic engineering adds a variety in species to create the perfect food. 200-300 years ago from today, human beings were consuming calories to find nutrient yet there was no industrialisation of food. In 2018, we can order food online at anytime. Food started to fulfill pure joy. In 2028, the industrialisation of the food sector will become a troubled issue for our health. Those who fall in the arms of industrial nutrition are acquainted with health problems such as obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases at an early age. And those who choose to use the blessings of this modernized age according to their needs will live a better quality life.
WHAT DOES THE GENERATION 50+ EAT AND DRINK IN 2028?
In this scenario, the elderly population in the world is rising quite fast. Therefore, the key to a long and healthy life is becoming one of the most important subjects of food research. When we take a look at the struggles for elderly people in general; a decrease in taste and smell, tooth and jaw problems, decreased ability to distinguish flavours and difficulty in swallowing are common conditions that may adversely affect appetite and lead to weight loss. Even though the energy requirement in the elderly is lower than the adult due to the decrease in physical activity, an extensive and healthy nutrition is still very important to prevent many diseases for 50+ people. Healthy living with industrial meat consumption is possible according to this scenario, since we have extensive food options for all age ranges. But there are not many solutions has been discovered yet for daily struggles of elderly people. Meat and dairy products are still one of the main source for protein, and the most popular ingredients for meal.
HOW DOES A SUPERMARKET LOOK LIKE IN 2028?
When we step inside a restaurant or a supermarket, meat is one of the main available visuals. Supermarkets are more diverse, but still there are not many options regarding vegan neither vegetarian diets. Ready-made food has a massive place inside the supermarkets, which has developed only a few vegetarian as well as more healthy whole meat options.
E ASY & QUICK ACS ES S TO FOOD > ready-made or fast food P O P U L A T I O N > health issues like obesity/ diabetes GROWTH V E G A N INDUSTRIALISATION F O O D OF FOOD > misusage of GE VARIOUS OPTIONS > Lower food quality MORE EFFICIENT
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ECONOMY BOOM > various supermarkets & r e s t a u r a n t s
INDUSTRIAL HEALTH
MEAT & DIARY VARIOUS OPTIONS > Meat > Vegan/ Vegetarian
IMPLICATION
LESS TIME
TREND FUTURE SCENARIOS Eating habits of people has completely transformed. Genetic engineering is not functioning and the only source of nutrition is meat. Therefore, consumers can not gain necessary nutrients, since they are the victims of a failed genetic engineering intervention.
WHAT DOES THE GENERATION 50+ EAT AND DRINK IN 2028?
In this scenario, where the meat is consumed as the main nutrient, the metabolism and digestive systems of people might undergo a transformation. Especially elderly people will miss important vitamins and energy sources, based on the unilateral diet of consuming meat as a main food product. Also, problems regarding chewing and the digestion might rise, since the metabolism of the 50+ generation is not as rapid anymore. Based on the one-sided nutrition, consumers can not meet their antioxidant needs and therefore a number of diseases might appear. For example, nowadays’ gout diseases, which is more common in high clusters, may become more common. Due to the growing world population, alternative animals can be eaten. Industrialization in the production process would increase since there is not enough space on the planet for farming land. In such a situation, we can say that the quality of the meat will decrease further, since the sources of meat are too little for the increasing world population.
HOW DOES A SUPERMARKET LOOK LIKE IN 2028?
IMPLICATION
Inside the supermarkets, we encounter a very monotonous landscape. Meat is the king in the nutrition environment and counts as the stable food. Food supplements in form of medication are essential to meet nutrition standards for the human health. A variety of options that are easy to access and price-friendly can be derived. Here, as we discussed in the second scenario, insects seem to come out as an alternative. Insects that are extremely rich in nutrients are already consumed in some cultures today and during a catastrophic scenario, it seems a great solution.
MEAT AS BASIC NOUTRITION U NILAT ERA L NUT RIT ION > sickness > population decrease
LESS TIME INDUSTRIALISATION O F M E AT / F O O D > increasing food/ meat > animals in bad conditions > less quality of food > war / hunger / desease
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MEAT FEAST
NEW FOOD C U LT U R E TRANSFORMATION ON EATING HABITS
M E A T FEAST
NO ANTIOXIDANTS H E A L T H PROBLEMS > gout > metabolism/ digestion problems
DECREASED RESOURCES A LT E R N AT I V E PROTEIN SOURCES > grain / insects
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Lastly, a brief recommendation will be given to Albert Heijn on how to achieve the most desirable and how to avoid the worst case scenario. According to the worst-case scenario ‘BIG HUNGER’, the future is predicted to be meatless and genetic engineering is not functioning. In such a case, people cannot consume meat; and other aliment sources where they can gain the necessary nutrients, are also the victims of a failed genetic engineering intervention. To avoid this scenario, Albert Heijn should focus on promoting healthy food and innovate new healthy food options. Seasonal vegetables and fruits might take the main place on the shelves according to the season. With advertisements concerned about fresh food consumption, the idea of ‘healthy living’ can be supported. Vegan products should stand out more by putting them in the right places in the shelves and improving the marketing idea. In addition to the supermarkets and Albert Heijn to go, a pop-up grocery service could be developed focused only on fresh products.
THE BIG H U N G E R WORST CASE SCENARIO
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TREND FUTURE SCENARIOS
MULTILATERAL NOURISHMENT MOST DESIREABLE SCENARIO
The most desirable scenario is ‘MULTILATERAL NOURISHMENT’, since the food is expected to be very close to perfect in all aspects. Creation of vegan food which taste like meat with perfect ingredients regarding proteins, would come true with the excellent functioning of genetic engineering. Albert Heijn should follow food trends and innovations, such as recent vegetarian inventions, as closely as possible. Besides, by supporting new healthy products and upcoming genetic engineering services and promoting them in their stores, they could set an offbeat example for the traditional supermarket chains. To ensure being future proof, Albert Heijn has to prepare for both possible future of food in 2028 by keeping the 50+ generation in mind.
FUTURE OUTLOOK FUTURE OUTLOOK FUTURE OUTLOOK ON 18
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