Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into inland aquaculture policies in Thailand

Climate Policy

ISSN: 1469-3062 (Print) 1752-7457 (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/tcpo20

Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into inland aquaculture policies in Thailand Anuwat Uppanunchai, Chanagun Chitmanat & Louis Lebel To cite this article: Anuwat Uppanunchai, Chanagun Chitmanat & Louis Lebel (2016): Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into inland aquaculture policies in Thailand, Climate Policy, DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2016.1242055 To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2016.1242055

Published online: 05 Dec 2016.

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Date: 05 December 2016, At: 16:33

CLIMATE POLICY, 2016 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2016.1242055

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into inland aquaculture policies in Thailand Anuwat Uppanunchaia, Chanagun Chitmanatb and Louis Lebelc a

Lamphun Inland Fisheries Research and Development Center, Department of Fisheries, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, Bangkok, Thailand; bFaculty of Fisheries Technology and Aquatic Resources, Maejo University, Chiang Mai, Thailand; cUnit for Social and Environmental Research (USER), Faculty of Social Sciences, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand ABSTRACT

ARTICLE HISTORY

While there have been many pilot projects on adaptation undertaken in the fisheries and aquaculture sector, state policies are only just beginning to address let alone refer to climate change. This study explores the climate-related content, climate sensitivities, and opportunities to incorporate climate change concerns in a set of aquaculture policies by the government of Thailand. The analysis is based on content analysis of policy documents and in-depth interviews with 14 officials that had roles in the design or implementation of 8 Department of Fisheries policies.

The Aquaculture Master Plan 2011–2016 and the now abandoned Tilapia Strategy refer directly to climate variability or change. The Master Plan also suggests measures or strategies, such as investment in research, and the transfer of technologies, which would be helpful to sustainability and adaptation. Other policies suggest, or at the very least include, practices which could contribute to strengthening management of climate-related risks, for example: a registration policy included provisions for compensation; extension programme policy recognizes the importance of extreme events; and a standards policy gives guidance on site selection and water management. Most existing aquaculture policies appear to be sensitive to the impacts of climate change; for instance, the zoning policy is sensitive to spatial shifts in climate. Stakeholders had ideas on how policies could be made more robust; in the case of zoning, by periodically reviewing boundaries and adjusting them as necessary.

Received 15 February 2016 Accepted 6 September 2016 KEYWORDS

aquaculture policy; climate change; climate sensitivity; extreme events; inland aquaculture; mainstreaming; Thailand

POLICY RELEVANCE

This study is one of the first evaluations of the coverage and sensitivity of aquaculture policies to climate change. It shows that while existing policies in Thailand are beginning to refer explicitly to climate change, they do not yet include much in the way of adaptation responses, underlining the need for identifying entry points as has been done in this analysis. Further mainstreaming is one option; another possibility is to adopt a more segregated approach, at least initially, and to collect various policy ideas under a new strategic policy for the aquaculture sector as a whole.

1. Introduction Successful climate adaptation policies reduce vulnerabilities to climate extremes, variability, and change (Burton, Huq, Lim, Pilifosova, & Schipper, 2002). Policies are needed at multiple levels and in different sectors to support building adaptive capacities of local, as well as national institutions. A widely promoted approach is to endeavour to integrate, or mainstream, the most relevant adaptation policy elements into existing development policies and plans (Huq et al., 2004). The benefits of doing so include improving coherence with other key CONTACT Louis Lebel llebel@loxinfo.co.th Supplemental data for this article can be accessed at http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2016.1242055. Š 2016 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group

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objectives like poverty alleviation, and greater efficiency (OECD, 2009). In practice, the mainstreaming approach faces significant challenges related to: coordination (Saito, 2013); information (Ayers, Huq, Faisal, & Hussain, 2014); political commitment (Ayers et al., 2014); policy context (Brouwer, Rayner, & Huitema, 2013); research capacity (Dany, Bajracharya, Lebel, Regan, & Taplin, 2015); and governance capacity (Friend et al., 2014). As a consequence, less ambitious alternatives, such as preparing a separate climate change strategic policy or climate-proofing just a few key policies in a sector, may initially be pursued.

Climate change will impact aquatic ecosystems, aquaculture, and fisheries already subjected to various anthropogenic stresses (Badjeck, Allison, Halls, & Dulvy, 2010; De Silva & Soto, 2009; Handisyde, Ross, Badjeck, & Allison, 2006). It will increase the potential for aquaculture in some regions and reduce it in others; as climate strongly affects aquaculture productivity (Bell et al., 2013; De Silva & Soto, 2009). Changes in the frequency or severity of climate-related disasters such as droughts and floods could also have significant impacts on the viability of aquaculture in some locations (Li, Yang, Nadolnyak, Zhang, & Luo, 2016; Pickering et al., 2011). Appropriate state policies are needed to enable the aquaculture sector to adapt to climate change, including policies that: improve livelihood security and reduce vulnerability to multiple stressors (Badjeck et al., 2010); improve understanding of alternate risk management practices (Lebel, Whangchai, Chitmanat, & Lebel, 2015a); and strengthen water resources management (Das, Sharma, Sahu, Srivastava, & Rej, 2013).

While there have been pilot projects on adaptation undertaken (FAO, 2014a), state policies are only just beginning to refer to climate change. Experiences in Australia illustrate common early steps. In 2008, the Victorian State Government in Australia prepared a 10-year climate change strategy for fisheries and aquaculture (VSG, 2008). The strategy recognizes that decisions will have to be made with limited information, that climate change is only one of the drivers of change, and that the role of government is to facilitate adaptation of businesses. The first phase aims to better understand the vulnerability of aquaculture to climate change. In 2010, the Australian Fisheries Management Forum helped prepare a national action plan (NRMMC, 2010). The action plan emphasizes collaborative planning with fisheries stakeholders, monitoring of production trends and support for selective breeding programmes. Similarly, the draft Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme makes several references to improving the sustainability of aquaculture through adherence to technical standards, and the adoption of new technologies as a way to adapt to climate change (Scottish Government, 2013). Monitoring and research are also acknowledged as important.

State aquaculture policy in most countries is focused on increasing production and limiting environmental impacts (De Silva, 2012). In exporting countries, attention is given to trade-related policies, regulations, and standards (Belton & Little, 2011). In developing countries, there is typically an emphasis on supporting production by low-income households for consumption, or as a source of supplementary income (Béné et al., 2016; Brugère, Ridler, Haylor, Macfadyen, & Hishamunda, 2010). Overall, there is not much experience with addressing adaptation to climate change in national aquaculture policies. Moreover, there have been few analyses of the sensitivity or robustness of existing policies to climate change. Thus, it is not clear where the key entry points might be, and whether or not the mainstreaming approach is practical or appropriate.

Thailand has typically been ranked in the top 10 fisheries’ producers in the world; but in 2011–2012 production fell substantially (as did its ranking to 14th) due to declines in capture fisheries because of overfishing and marine degradation, and the impacts of flooding and disease on aquaculture (FAO, 2014b). Aquaculture is increasingly important as a way to increase fishery production and replace declining capture fishery resources (DOF, 2013a), and in 2012 contributed to around 40% of total production (FAO, 2014b). Thailand’s Second National Communication to the UNFCCC tabulates the impacts of floods on aquaculture over two decades (ONEP, 2010). Recent studies on the sensitivity of inland fish farms to climate in Thailand underline the importance of floods, droughts, and extreme temperatures (Lebel et al., 2015a; Sriyasak, Chitmanat, Whangchai, Promya, & Lebel, 2015), as well as farmers’ perceptions of and concerns with climate change (Lebel, Whangchai, Chitmanat, & Lebel, 2015b; Lebel, Whangchai, Chitmanat, Promya, & Lebel, 2015). Fish hatchery managers are also worried about climate change impacts on water resources; though in extreme northern parts of Thailand, warmer winter temperatures might actually be beneficial for fish fry production (Uppanunchai, Apirumanekul, & Lebel, 2015).

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This study explores the climate-related content, climate sensitivities, and potential to incorporate climate change concerns of a set of inland aquaculture policies from the government of Thailand. Most policies studied were from the Department of Fisheries (DOF) in the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, as it is the agency with primary responsibility for aquaculture. We restricted our analysis in this study to inland freshwater aquaculture, as the issues facing coastal aquaculture while also important are quite different; for example, the latter has to deal with storm surges and sea-level rise. Thailand makes a good case study for such an analysis because the freshwater aquaculture sector is commercially important, but still involves a lot of small farms (De Silva & Davy, 2010). Three specific research questions are addressed: (1) To what extent, and how, do existing inland aquaculture policies take into account climate variability and change? (2) To what extent, and how, are existing inland aquaculture policies sensitive or vulnerable to climate variability and change? (3) How could concerns with climate variability and change be better incorporated into future inland aquaculture policies?

2. Methods 2.1. Content analysis of documents From initial discussions with officials, and document searches, a set of sectoral policies and supporting plans and programmes were identified as important for aquaculture development (Table 1). In addition to the DOF policies, we also looked at the last two national development plans to better understand the policy context for the aquaculture sector.

The content analysis had three parts. First, documents were scanned for explicit references to climate change, changes in frequency, duration, or severity of extreme events like floods and droughts, then followed by any mentions of climate, season, weather, floods, droughts and extreme temperatures. The extent to which a policy document was considered to have taken into account climate change was measured on a four-point scale (Supplemental Figure 1A).

Second, key goals and associated activities were identified and their sensitivity to climate change assessed.

This was done by evaluating how a changed climate would impact the performance of the policy if no special action or adjustments were made. Four qualitative climate change scenarios (Supplemental Figure 1B) were used to test the sensitivity of individual policies (Supplemental Figure 1A).

Third, consideration was given to how the most important sensitivities identified could be addressed. Priority was placed on what could be done by refining existing policies that had relatively high sensitivity, but little climate change content (Supplemental Figure 1C). The views of stakeholders involved in the design and implementation of policies were extended by analysis of additional options proposed by the authors.

2.2. Interviews Fourteen interviews were done with senior officials in the DOF who helped design or implement plans and policies for aquaculture in Thailand. Five individuals could provide history and analysis on more than one of the key policies studied. In-depth interviews were carried out using a questionnaire guide. The views of the policy stakeholders were sought on: how policies have been interpreted and implemented; how existing policies interact and what support they receive; how policy effectiveness is influenced by extreme events and climate; how policy effectiveness might be impacted by climate change, for example, changes in frequency or severity of extreme events; and how policy limitations or gaps might be addressed. All interviews were taped, transcribed and translated into English. Interview transcripts were coded in NVIVO qualitative software to facilitate analysis.

2.3. Multi-stakeholder dialogue Policy options for responding to climate change in the aquaculture sector of Thailand were discussed in a multistakeholder dialogue held on 20–21 November 2015. At this event, fish farmers (22), agents from private firms (7), academics/researchers (28), non-governmental organizations (3), and officials from the DOF (24), as well as other

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Table 1. Key aquaculture policy and supporting plan or programme documents evaluated in this study.

Documents Year National development policy context 11th NESDP 2012 10th NESDP 2007 Legal framework and strategies Fisheries Act 2015 Aquaculture Master 2011 Plan Tilapia Strategy 2010 Regulations and standards Certification 2004, 2014 Farmer Registration 2010 Zoning 2013 Information and technical programmes Fisheries Volunteers 2008 Fisheries Extension Fry Production

2008 1990 (2014)

Responsible agency

Main goal

National Economic and Social Development Board National Economic and Social Development Board

Comprehensive 5-year National Development plan Comprehensive 5-year National Development plan

Law Division, DOF Inland Fisheries Research and Development Bureau & others, DOF Inland Fisheries Research and Development Bureau, DOF

Protection and control comprehensive framework for fisheries & aquaculture Sustainable aquaculture that produces safe and quality food to meet domestic consumer demand and for export Enhance Nile tilapia production and quality

Fish Inspection and Quality Control Division, DOF Office of The Inspector, DOF Information Technology Center, DOF

Develop standards to improve quality of fishery products Database of aquaculture farmers for planning and to support certification & traceability Analysis of spatial information to inform decisions on area-based incentives or support to farmers

Office of The Inspector, DOF

Establish leaders and demonstration models for sharing knowledge on aquaculture in the community To increase knowledge of farmers of aquaculture so can produce food for household consumption Produce juvenile aquatic animals to sell to farmers

Office of The Inspector, DOF Executive Director, DOF

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government agencies (10) offered their views on key climate-related risks, best management practices, aquaculture policies, water management, and likely climate change impacts, as well as possible adaptation options.

Altogether, around 110 individuals participated. Keynote talks, speaker panels, and roundtable events were taped, and main points in presentations and discussions summarized in a Thai language public document.

3. Climate content of existing policies 3.1. Policy context Sectoral policies in Thailand are guided by the framework provided by the rolling five-year National Economic and Social Development Plans (Table 1). The 10th National Plan (2007–2011) gives a lot of space to climate variability and change as challenges, but says little about adaptation to climate change, while most guidance to the fisheries sector is for improving the sustainability of practices in the ocean and coastal zones. The 11th National Plan (2012–2016) acknowledges that climate change is already occurring, and that natural hazards may become more severe and frequent; and in response, it refers to the need for building knowledge and capacities to adapt to climate change, and the proper management of natural resources and the environment (NESDB, 2012).

Section 5.3.4 of the National Plan calls for the promotion and development of commercial aquaculture through improved and sustainable technologies, so the sector as a whole can adjust to both changes in climate and regulations. The 11th National Plan, in short, provides a favourable policy context for the aquaculture sector to take into account climate change in its policies, plans, and programmes.

3.2. Legal framework and strategies In Thailand, the DOF, under the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, is the main organization to promote and support inland aquaculture, by implementation of projects, plans, and policies (Table 1).

In recognition of the huge changes in levels of exploitation of fishery resources, a decade of significant declines in production from marine capture fisheries and the expansion of commercial aquaculture, the 1947 Fisheries Law was significantly upgraded in 2015. As of early 2016 the new legislation had the interim status of an Act and not a Law. The Fisheries Act is intended to protect and guide the sustainable use of aquatic animal resources, ensure production is safe to consumers, expand public participation and address issues related to illegal labour practices. Chapter 3 of the Fisheries Act assigns legal responsibilities for aquaculture promotion and regulation, with standards and certification featuring prominently alongside regulation of culturing practices and zoning. The Act, for example, empowers the Provincial Fishery Committee to ‘determine zones or areas in which aquaculture is prohibited’ (DOF, 2015). There is no mention of climate change, floods, or droughts.

In contrast, the Aquaculture Master Plan makes multiple references to the impacts of climate change in its review of over-arching agricultural sector policies, encouraging ‘assessment of the impacts on breeding stocks’, and the ‘development of insurance to manage risks from natural disasters’. References are also made to supporting research and development, and the transfer of knowledge and technology to farmers. A general need ‘to strengthen capacities to cope with and adapt to the impacts of climate change’ is acknowledged. No details are given, however, on the types of impacts or adaptation measures. The Plan also mentions droughts in relation to agriculture, and argues that systems are needed for prevention and mitigation, such as using artificial rain-making services. Floods and extreme temperature episodes are not mentioned in the Plan.

The Tilapia Strategy aimed to enhance the quality and level of production of Nile tilapia (DOF, 2011). The emphasis was on getting groups of farmers to adhere to Good Aquaculture Practice (GAP) standards. The strategy also includes marketing and promotional activities. The strategy notes that ‘apart from experiencing negative impacts from climate change such as extreme flood or drought, other uncontrolled external environmental conditions such as disease or wastewater from agricultural activities also affect fish-cage Tilapia’. No details are given in the document regarding changes in flood or drought regimes, nor any specifics with respect to adaptation measures. As phase 1 (2010–2014) failed to meet the target of significantly increasing farmer participation in GAP, funding for phase 2 of the Tilapia Strategy was cancelled.

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3.3. Regulations and standards Policies on the inspection and certification of fishery products are an important element of Thailand’s interest in the export of fishery products, and dealing with possible barriers to trade. Hygiene and food safety issues have therefore long been a central concern of DOF policy (Yamprayoon & Sukhumparnich, 2010). Key schemes at the farm level are: Safety Level, GAP, Code of Conduct, and movement document used for traceability. The GAP Standard for Tilapia provides distinct guidance for earthen pond and fish-cage cultures (MOAC, 2004).

Climate-related impacts on water resources are taken into account in recommendations on farm siting for earthen ponds: ‘farms shall not be built in a flood-prone area, but shall be built in the area that has a large dyke to prevent flooding’ (Article 1.1.3) and ‘The soil for pond construction shall be good in retaining water to reduce water loss during culture’ (1.1.4). For cage culture, the emphasis is on water quality: ‘Cages shall be placed in a source of sufficient good-quality water supply that is far from any pollution source and has a good circulation system’ (1.2.2). And, with clear recognition of influence of seasons and climate extremes: There shall be an appropriate plan for culturing fish in different seasons since water quality in some seasons is not appropriate for culture. For example, in the late summer to early rainy season, water can be turbid with red sediment causing fish to be weak and die in large numbers. (1.2.7)

There is no direct reference made to climate change, for instance, on needs to adjust standards if the frequency of extreme events were to increase.

The expectation from the registration policy has been that the database would be useful for planning the development of aquaculture, including support for certification audits and issuing of movement documents required for traceability. There is no reference to climate change in the policy documents. The key provision on climate-related risks in this policy has been the requirement that to benefit from compensation following natural disasters (like floods or droughts) a fish farm must be registered. The severe floods in 2011 acted as an incentive for more farmers to register, given that: the government provided a grant-in-aid for farmers including fish farmers and villagers who suffered from flooding. However, only farmers who registered farms would receive compensation. As a result, there were many farmers not qualified for this aid.

Subsequently, they paid more attention to registration of their farms with the Department of Fisheries.

Compensation is, however, modest with grant-in-aid limited to: 2.6 Baht m−2 and no more than 8000 m2 per farm for rearing in ponds; and 315 Baht m−2 and no more than 80 m2 per farm for rearing in cages. For those farming fish in public water bodies such as rivers and reservoirs, the procedures to register are more complex than for those with farm ponds on private land.

The zoning policy for aquaculture is based on the notion of using spatial information to decide on promotion of production of appropriate aquatic animals at the provincial and national levels. In defining zones, farmers are supposed to be consulted alongside local officials of DOF. The policy also allows for incentives or support so that farmers modify or expand aquaculture areas into appropriate areas in the future. The policy documents make no direct reference to climate change. According to interviews, however, the zoning policy is intended to play close attention to climate-related factors, such as temperatures, rainfall, sunlight, wind and water resources.

Other important considerations in zoning are the markets for commodities and human resources. The zoning subcommittee ‘has the authority to analyze the planning of agricultural production, cultivation and animal production areas in accordance with the weather, water resources for agriculture, the main income of the farmers and the needs of domestic and foreign markets’. Maps used in the analysis are prepared with the assistance of the Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency. Zoning analysis has been done for inland and coastal regions of Thailand (MOAC, 2013). The maps prepared for inland aquaculture focus on freshwater shrimp and tilapia.

3.4. Information and technical programmes The Fisheries Volunteers programme aims to establish leaders’ knowledgeable about aquaculture in communities. These individuals are expected to pass on news, knowledge, and technology to other farmers in the community, and also support communications between fish farmers and officials of DOF at district and provincial levels. Fisheries Extension has supported programmes to develop livelihoods around different aquaculture

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systems. Since 2009, practices have been adjusted to fit more in line with local potential and the Ministry of Agriculture’s overall strategy of increasing productivity, while continuing to emphasize production for household consumption. Neither the Volunteers nor Extension policies make specific references to extreme climate events or climate change.

The fish fry production policy that guides the activities of state hatcheries aims to ensure adequate production of fish fry for sell to fish farmers, in particular, to small-holders with subsistence or commercial systems (DOF, 2013b). The planning procedures take into account seasonality of production due to fish lifecycles and climate conditions in different parts of Thailand. Moreover, if flooding or other severe disruptions occur to a hatchery’s operation in one location, part of a year’s budget may be re-allocated to other centres so that they can help make up for production shortfalls (Uppanunchai et al., 2015).

Thus, in terms of content, only the National Plan and strategic policy documents refer explicitly, but with few specifics, to climate change. The climate-related content of other policy documents, if any, is in the form of references to floods or droughts. GAP offered significant guidance on site selection and other risk management measures, while most other policies or programmes did not say much about how to respond to climate-related risks.

4. Sensitivity to climate change 4.1. Legal framework and strategies The Fisheries Act, with its primary focus on assigning responsibilities and granting authority to make rules, is largely insensitive to the direct impacts of climate change or extreme events. The need to invoke specific sections of the Act, however, might increase under a more challenging climate, for example, to cope with reduced availability of water resources arising from a drying climate.

The Master Plan vision for the sector is ‘aquaculture production that is sustainable, stable, and safe’. Specific targets include increasing output by at least 2% per year as well as developing 50 new production sites and forming 30 new farmers’ cooperatives. At the same time, ‘global climate change and increases in natural disasters’ are identified as significant threats in a SWOT analysis reported in the plan. No explicit or specific measures to address natural disasters and ensure that various targets are met are mentioned. Comments by fish farmers and officials in a roundtable at the dialogue event strongly supported the value of forming cooperatives or informal clubs for managing climate-related and other risks.

Informants acknowledged that the success of the Tilapia Strategy depended on access to sufficient water, and that climate variability with respect to rainfall and heat waves could disrupt achieving targets for increased production under the strategy. A wetter, drier, or more seasonal climate scenario would be disruptive to the strategy. An official with the DOF noted that: If there is adequate water for farming fish, we are able to control water temperature. The current problem we are facing is the water shortage in Northeastern Thailand. Last year, there were big losses in cage culture because the dams did not release enough water.

Extreme flooding in 2011 also substantially reduced annual tilapia production.

The Tilapia Strategy production targets are vulnerable to both too much and too little water, as there are no provisions to deal with climate variability or extreme events.

4.2. Regulations and standards Standards and certification schemes themselves are not especially sensitive to climate change, as they already contain significant guidance on site selection and water management. Extreme climate conditions, however, as an official responsible for farm certification noted, could make standards harder to meet, as following high stress periods ‘farmers typically apply antibiotics or chemicals. This creates a problem for certification, since farmers must stop the medication at least three weeks before an audit [or harvest]’.

The registration policy itself is not likely to be disrupted by extreme weather events, although if such events became more frequent, there may be some issues in continuing to provide the same levels of compensation or

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other forms of assistance. In this situation, DOF may need to take on new responsibilities in risk management and sharing. According to comments made by farmers in the dialogue, the costs of registration, including fees to the Department of Harbours and Navigation for cage culture in rivers, are perceived as high and thus limits full participation. This issue was debated extensively by farmers and officials in the dialogue event. Another constraint is that slow or gradual onset changes like droughts are not as well addressed as discrete events like floods. In 2010 and 2012, for example, although the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Office declared an official ‘drought’, district and provincial offices did not recognize damages as they did for a flood, so no compensation was provided to fish farmers during that time. Moreover, according to a DOF official interviewed, there are weaknesses in implementation, given ‘limited staff, the follow-up service to registered farmers may not be comprehensive and fully effective. If we had more personnel to give advice and service farmers, then farmers would be more willing to register’. These limitations increase the vulnerability of fish farmers under current climate, and could become an even more serious issue under future climate scenarios with higher frequencies of extreme events.

In the view of an official involved in the Tilapia zoning policy: ‘if climate change occurs it will generate lots of impacts’, potentially making current zones irrelevant. And while some species in some areas may benefit from small mean temperature changes, others would not. Another pointed out that zoning was a new and urgent policy, and that ‘both government officials and employees who were involved in the zoning project, did not clearly understand the work or could not communicate about it clearly’. As in the case of registration, incomplete implementation increases vulnerability of fish farms, thus making it harder to pursue the policy goals under an even more challenging future climate.

4.3. Information and technical programmes The extension services and volunteer policies are sensitive to climate change in the sense that farmers may end up receiving misleading or out-of-date advice about appropriate species and techniques. As volunteers work through demonstration within the community, they are likely to notice early on when old methods do not work, and adjust practices accordingly. Extension services are more at risk of being rendered irrelevant by changing conditions. Officials told us that in the past, there was often a mismatch between activities promoted and local conditions or farmers’ needs. Exchanges in the dialogue among stakeholders suggest that where there is frequent interaction between officials, private firms and fish farmers, it is easier for information about emerging problems and good practices to be shared.

Coordinating the supply of fish fry to meet farmer demand is an on-going challenge: There is a shortage of fry and fingerling in some seasons, leading to difficulties in production management. Farmers have to wait until the fry is ready. As a result, fish production is high when the demand for fish is low.

Quantitative analysis of the possible impacts of warmer temperatures on hatchery operations suggests that climate change, in particular an increased frequency or severity of heat waves, could exacerbate such situations for locations in the lower North, wherein pre-monsoon maximum temperatures are often already very high (Uppanunchai et al., 2015).

In summary, most aquaculture policies studied had some areas of sensitivity to climate change that were not yet addressed within the policy. This was most apparent with respect to extreme events, which if they became more frequent or severe would have significant implications for pursuing policy goals. The analysis also underlined that existing aquaculture policies that would make fish farms more resilient to extreme climate events (like registration or zoning) do not get fully implemented as planned, and this contributes to high sensitivities and vulnerabilities to extreme events that are likely to become more frequent or severe under a changing climate.

5. Incorporating concerns with climate variability and change 5.1. Legal framework and strategies The Fisheries Act already assigns the DOF the role of research and development in breeding and propagation (Section 47), which could be used to justify longer-term work on thermal tolerance or identifying alternative species to culture as climate shifts. The Tilapia Strategy also supported genetic improvement to:

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improve the quality of Tilapia fingerlings in order to maintain sustainable rearing practice by developing production of male Tilapia without using hormone; develop Tilapia species to be reared in brackish water for the purpose of off-flavor removal; and, improve Chitralada strain of Tilapia to increase its growth rate.

These plans, if pursued, would help support the expansion of fry production in a variable climate.

Concerns with climate variability and change could be incorporated into existing aquaculture policies; alternatively, they could be collected under a new strategic policy for the aquaculture and fisheries sector. Given the importance of water resources to aquaculture development, the scope, we suggest, might even be expanded to a ‘Climate Change and Water Strategy for Inland Aquaculture’. In our view, such a strategy should support a combination of shorter-term and longer-term measures, like research, development of insurance, establishing climate information systems, and improving early warning systems for extreme events. Ideally, the strategy would also allow for changes in future demand for farmed fish as well as water availability, as these two factors have high potential to interact and modify the effects of climate change.

5.2. Regulations and standards Standards could be made more robust to climate change if they encouraged learning and continuous improvement, rewarding adoption of best practices, in particular, those that are likely to result in improved management of climate-related risks. As noted by several informants, a key challenge with GAP and other certification schemes is the absence of a price premium for meeting GAP or related standards, and thus an immediate incentive for fish farmers to modify practices. Meeting standards might be linked to other privileges: ‘many farmers want to have insurance’ or would welcome the ‘chance to get larger loans or lower interest rates’.

In a roundtable on mutual or weather-indexed insurance at the dialogue, one option proposed and discussed was the possibility of making insurance compulsory for fish farms, for example, by linking it to farm registration or payment of audit fees. Information on production and losses collected as part of registration could be used to provide the baseline statistics to justify levels of premiums, addressing a recurrent concern of DOF officials that: We have struggled to document the productivity of water resources for a long time. There is still no statistics, at least any that have been properly collected, and as a result, we still don’t really know the level of production.

Uncertainty about the direction of future climate change impacts on water resources or risks of extreme events can be a barrier to making policy decisions. Thus, a DOF official who helped with the design of zoning policy admitted that although ‘climate change affects many things; we don’t know for sure if it will influence aquaculture zoning or not. There is still no clear evidence of this’. If the strategy is to wait until changes are observable, then it is important to periodically monitor and review the performances of zones. Changes in zoning could also be the basis for updating the extension policy, such that the right kind of advice is given in different locations.

5.3. Information and technical programmes Good, current information is critical to improving planning and practices under a changing climate. DOF officials suggested that extension officers could be trained to improve their understanding of the climate in the region wherein they work. They could also be provided skills on how to design and use early warning systems, for floods, droughts and extreme temperatures. Likewise, it should be possible to train volunteers on ways to systematically assess and manage climate-related risks to production and profits. Site selection is another important dimension of climate risk management, for which knowledgeable local experts can help. One of the strengths of the current fisheries volunteer programme is that it brings expert local knowledge to bear on risk management issues very similar to those related to adaptation to climate change.

At the same time, there is a need for DOF to work with private firms and provide more climate information to fish farmers. Mapping of seasonal climate-related risks, and seasonal forecasting of water resource conditions in the dry season, would be extremely beneficial for fish farmers. Early warning systems need to be more tailored to the needs of fish farmers, and could be built up from existing tools and data available in other departments responsible for irrigation, meteorology, and disaster management.

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In summary, stakeholders already have some ideas about how to incorporate concerns of climate change into existing policies. Most suggestions related to information or technologies, although it was clear from the analysis that institutional amendments are also needed. Entry points exist at all levels, from strategies through regulations to programmes. At the strategy level, one option is to develop a completely new policy on climate change and water management for aquaculture. For regulations and standards, it seems possible to adjust criteria within existing policies to make them more robust to climate. At the programme level the main tactic is upgrading and sharing information.

6. Mainstreaming versus segregating Existing aquaculture policies in Thailand have only just begun to take into account climate change. The Aquaculture Master Plan and the now abandoned Tilapia Strategy (Table 1) were the only two DOF policy documents that referred explicitly to climate change. National climate change policies do not refer to aquaculture either. In contrast, the 11th National Plan provides a strong enabling environment, and thus opportunity for addressing climate change as part of aquaculture development. Moreover, several DOF policies, plans, or programmes encourage more sustainable practices, and as such could contribute to strengthening climate risk management and resilience.

Existing inland aquaculture policies, plans, and programmes vary in their sensitivity to the impacts of climate change. One key observation is that meeting strategic targets and objectives will likely get more difficult in a future climate with more severe floods, droughts or heat waves. In the coastal zones, where commercial shrimp aquaculture is a key activity (Lebel, Mungkung, Gheewala, & Lebel, 2010), the impacts of sea-level rise, salinization, and storm surges would also need to be taken into account, and deserve further study from a policy perspective (e.g. Shameem, Momtaz, & Kiem, 2015). Most responses could be made more robust by including monitoring and reviewing provisions, as this would create opportunities for learning. It would also help if extreme events and climate variability were treated as normal risks to development which need to be prepared for, rather than as exceptional events to which departments react thereafter (Lebel, Manuta, & Garden, 2011).

Although the idea of mainstreaming adaptation policy into existing development policies is a widely promoted one (Huq et al., 2004), given the modest level of attention to climate-related risks overall in Thailand’s aquaculture sector, however, we argue that it may not be the most appropriate approach. First, the key risks as well as needs and priorities for adaptation have not yet been identified. Second, existing aquaculture policies are only partially implemented; modified policies that incorporate climate change concerns might suffer the same fate. Limited governance capacities to regulate and steer (Friend et al., 2014), and technical capacities to use information and devise appropriate adaptation measures (Ayers et al., 2014), often remain significant constraints to mainstreaming climate change adaptation into sectoral policies in developing countries.

In Australia, governments initially have taken what might be called the ‘segregating’ approach, developing a new policy strategy specifically about climate change for the fisheries and aquaculture sector (NRMMC, 2010; VSG, 2008). An advantage of this approach is that it provides a focus for assessment activities and stakeholder engagement; it also encourages exploration of issues and wider deliberation of response options. A limitation of the segregating approach for Thailand is that most government programmes are driven by core policies aimed at increasing production and protecting export markets, and hence do not have clear entry points for taking into consideration longer-term climate change risks to the aquaculture sector. In this situation there is a real possibility of climate change strategies being drafted but never being used to guide development of the sector.

The focus of this analysis was on public policies. Private investment has had a large role in the development of aquaculture in Thailand (Belton & Little, 2011), and is thus likely to be important for adaptation as well. Unlike in Australia (VSG, 2008), the Thai government has not yet paid much attention to the roles and potential contributions of business to adaptation. Key areas to which private firms could contribute include supporting development of insurance schemes (Beach & Viator, 2008), and identifying best practices or providing improved technologies (Belton & Little, 2011). An outstanding issue requiring further research is how responsibilities between the public and private sectors in adaptation should be divided, given that the sector has a significant commercial orientation (Pauw, 2014). In particular, who should pay for adaptation? Even if the government turns

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to the private sector for implementation of adaptation measures, it may decide to contribute to the costs (Tennekes, Driessen, van Rijswick, & van Bree, 2014).

There have been few published analyses of climate change adaptation content of sectoral policies completed for Thailand or in neighbouring countries in related sectors with which to compare the findings from this study.

In the transport sector, a key challenge in Thailand is maintaining rural roads as these are frequently damaged by floods and costly to repair, but may not carry much traffic (Rattanachot, Wang, Chong, & Suwansawas, 2015).

Technical solutions to prevent and reduce damages are available, but are not yet strategically supported with appropriate policies. In Cambodia, the national planning processes for water and agriculture have several entry points for introducing concerns with climate change into policy development by state actors, but fewer opportunities for non-state actors (Dany, Taplin, Bajracharya, Regan, & Lebel, 2016). Lack of withincountry capacities and a mismatch between typical plans and the level of resources for implementation, however, remain significant constraints (Dany et al., 2015).

One recurrent theme emerging from local studies is that adaptation in different locations and sectors takes place against a background of multiple stressors, and policies need to take this complexity into account. Fish farmers in Northern Thailand manage market, financial, political, and climate-related risks simultaneously (Lebel et al., 2015a). Coastal communities in Southern Thailand also deal with both economic and climatic risks (Bennett, Dearden, & Peredo, 2015).

The challenge is not only of multiple stresses, but also of multiple responses. As aquaculture is strongly dependent on access to sufficient good-quality water, other activities which reduce availability and access to water are likely to be just as important as climate change, and to strongly interact with it (De Silva & Soto, 2009). In Thailand, national water allocation and flood protection policies adjust in response to extreme events or seasons, and hence have important consequences for dam management, river flows and impacts on aquaculture (Lebel et al., 2015b). The degree to which these other policies consider the aquaculture stake in water resources management is therefore likely to be critical to the success of adaptation in the aquaculture sector. Conversely, other water users are often concerned with the environmental impacts of high-intensity aquaculture. The presence of multiple stressors and responses is one reason why it is important to take into account climate change in the development of the aquaculture sector; it is also a reason why it is difficult to pursue both mainstreaming and segregating approaches in national aquaculture policy without careful consideration of the impacts of policies in other sectors, in particular, those of which influence water quality and allocation.

Disclosure statement No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Funding The work was carried out with the aid of a grant from the International Development Research Centre, Ottawa, Canada [grant number 107087] as a contribution to the AQUADAPT project.

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