World

As COVID-19 is changing the world, what happens to global migration?

written by Isabelle Bienfait

For a moment, as borders were re-opening and international travel resumed, the world seemed to be going back to normal. A much-awaited event for the roughly 272 million people classified as international migrants (including refugees and asylum seekers) who have found themselves in unquestionably dire circumstances in these recent months. While writing this, however, a new rise of infections proves to us that Covid-19 could remain a threat for some time to come. Despite this uncertainty, people make predictions of a future which is not taunted by the virus. So too will I attempt to peer past the pandemic and discuss what global migration might look like in a ‘post-Covid’ world.

Government responses to Covid-19 have generally not panned out well for irregular migrants and asylum seekers. Algeria forcibly expelled hundreds of migrants to transit centres in Niger. The Malaysian government continued their crackdown on and xenophobic hate speech towards Rohingya refugees. Many countries that closed their borders did not take asylum seekers into account. Some countries have however taken a more inclusive approach. During the escalation of the virus’s outbreak in Portugal, for instance, the country temporarily granted migrants and asylum seekers full citizenship rights which included access to Portugal’s healthcare system. Italy set out an amnesty law which allows for around 200,000 migrant labourers to apply for legal residency. In Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Covid-19 pointed out the consequences of migrant workers having their basic rights denied in often jam-packed accommodations – this prompted a promise to provide healthcare regardless of legal status.

Unfortunately, even such positive developments have their shortcomings. Not only is it often unclear whether asylum seekers and migrants have had access to the treatment they were promised, but the promises are time-bound to the threat of the current pandemic. Italy’s legal residency permits are only valid for a sixmonth period.This may make sense on the surface, but it overlooks some obvious longer-term consequences of Covid-19. So, besides not knowing if the pandemic will have passed by this six-month mark, the existing vulnerabilities faced by migrants are exacerbated by the current crisis and may very well outlast it - making their ‘post-Covid’ realities sombre. A UN Policy Brief from June 2020 outlines three of these vulnerabilities.

Firstly, people on the move face an obviously high risk gratory landscape for years, if not decades to come. to their own health because of exposure to the virus One such prediction is that Covid-19 will usher in an era without proper protection. As mentioned, the govern- that is less global than the previous. If the world since ments’ actions protecting the health of migrants and the 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath, dominated asylum seekers have not been a top priority. This makes by an economic recession and growing inequality, has those already lacking access to other basic needs, such witnessed the birth of an anti-globalisation consensus, as food and housing, more vulnerable. Secondly, as an then Covid-19 will push us further towards a ‘de-gloindisputable consequence of Covid-19, the socio-eco- balisation’ reality. Especially in developed countries, all nomic crisis impacts those without social protection things international may pose an unnecessary risk to measures, financial reserves, and those crucially depen- the health of citizens, that would not have to be othdent on the migrant remittances that disappear along- erwise incurred by, such as turning supply chains from side a global loss of employment. According to World global to local. Although it may make the world more Bank data, the developing world received a record high resilient to future health-related crises, it makes us less of $529 billion in remittances from citizens abroad in prosperous as a consequence. If we begin distrusting 2018. The immediate economic aftermath of Covid-19 foreign countries and the international system as a will, therefore, heavily disrupt income for migrant fam- whole, heightened political tensions may slowly manilies. It is estimated that about ifest into a global conflict. 60 million people globally “If political tensions in- We might even consider the could be pushed into extreme poverty in 2020 alone. Thirdly, crease, so too will the urtrade war between the United States and China, already if people are unable to move gency for people to dubbed as a new ‘Cold War’, homes, they will be forced to migrate.” as an early manifestation of stay in precarious situations this. – triggering a protection crisis. Although it is shown that deportation of asylum Renowned historian Yuval seekers from EU countries has significantly decreased Noah Harari confronts us with an important choice beduring the pandemic, with Germany’s deportations altween ‘nationalist isolation and global solidarity’ . If we most halving, we may expect these to pick up after the take the route of nationalist isolation, we will be folhealth-related threat is over.The home countries or lo- lowed by global disunity. This will have a lasting impact calities (in the case of Internally Displaced People) may since migration primarily relies on principles of trust be ill-prepared to receive people safely. This will drive between states, openness and globalisation. An examthose desperate to escape harm into irregular migra- ple of this is migrant labour. As the Center for Strategic tory pathways; often via smugglers, traffickers and oth- and International Studies argues, if “migrant labor – the er illegal routes. For these reasons, policymakers need engine of a globalized economy – stops moving”, not to act quickly to implement or extend measures that only would it decrease output, but if paired with a diswill curb the negative consequences for migrants and ruption of the food supply chain, it may cause tension asylum seekers. A ‘post-Covid’ world simply does not around global food security.This is just one of the many mean the same for those on the move. long-term repercussions faced by a less globalised Having examined what is still a relatively near future, ever shape it takes - is the biggest reason for forced miit is worth looking further ahead and predicting how gration in the first place. If political tensions increase, so major changes in global behaviour will impact the miworld. Finally, we must not forget that conflict - what-