Climate Change Effects – Adaptation and Municipal Cost Implications by kdz_austria

ACRP – Calls for Proposals

ACRP Final Report – Activity Report Program control: Climate and Energy Fund Program management: Kommunalkredit Public Consulting GmbH (KPC)

Project Data

[Acronym]

CAD-MUCI

Full title

Climate Change Effects – Adaptation and Municipal Cost Implications

Project number

B567165

Program/Program line

ACRP, 8th Call for Proposals

Applicant

AIT Austrian Institute of Technology Dr. Wolfgang Loibl

Project partners

KdZ - Zentrum für Verwaltungsforschung (Wien) Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz (Styria)

Project start and duration

Project start: 15.04.2016

Reporting period

from 15.04.2016 to 15.04.2018

Duration: 25 months

Synopsis: The project investigates the effectiveness of flood prevention measures in municipalities in three river catchments in Upper Austria. Extreme flood event data and municipality budget data, related to damage repair and adaptation measures are extracted for the years 2001 to 2015, where 2 extreme flood events occur. The municipalities’ budgetary effects of adaptation measures have been examined through regression analysis. The analysis results show, that high local adaptation costs did not lead to small damage repair costs in the exposed municipalities but they confirm a damage mitigating effect of especially upstream adaptation measures. Future climate scenario investigations show that frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events will slightly increase which let expect higher flood-related repair and adaptation costs in the future. Finally, budget investigations and interviews, carried out in case studies of 3 municipalities, show that flood protection associations are of central importance for the municipalities as they distribute flood related costs between (highly and less exposed) municipalities in the catchment, organise subsidy for those measures from regional government and federal state and coordinate larger flood prevention projects.

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ACRP – Calls for Proposals

Technical /Scientific Description of the Project 2.1 Project abstract

According to the Austrian National Adaptation Strategy (BMLFUW 2012), adaptation to climate change requires the active participation of the municipalities. Due to the tight budgets of the municipalities, adaptation measures to climate change must be implemented as effectively and efficiently as possible. At the time being, only few studies explore budget data on municipal spending for the implementation of climate change adaptation measures, and the reconstruction of damages. The objective of this project is to investigate, based on cost data, the effectiveness of flood prevention measures in municipalities in three river catchments in Upper Austria, also with the aim of identifying positive or negative spillover effects at the regional level. As a first step, relevant data on spatial and climate characteristics are compiled, spatial risk indicators in the catchments’ municipalities are generated from them and extreme flood event occurrences are identified over the period 2002-2015. In a second step, flood related expenditures are identified in the budgets of the catchments’ municipalities by distinguishing between rescue and aftercare, expenditures on reconstruction (repair costs during and after extreme events) and preventive costs between and before events (i.e. adaptation relevant expenditures). Subsequently, selected budget expenditures in the municipalities over the period 2002-2015 are analyzed according to selected flood-related rescue, aftercare, repair- and flood-prevention cost groups. The relation of flood-related expenditures to budget items of municipality budgets shows that expenditures for response, aftercare and prevention are included in many budget subsections which are not always booked in the same way. Delineation of flood risk management expenditures is therefore generally difficult. In a third step, multiple regression analyses are conducted for the river catchments to assess flood damage mitigating effects through adaptation measures for selected measure groups based on municipality budget data. High adaptation costs in the exposed municipalities are found to not lower (despite the measures) future damages and repair costs. However, the analyses confirm a positive - flood damage mitigating - effect of upstream adaptation: high adaptation investments in municipalities located upstream, show lower damage management costs during the subsequent flood event in the heavily exposed municipalities, Though, due to the low number of incorporated municipalities and weak cost data, the regression models provide little liability for a well-founded quantitative projection of financial impact. In addition, case studies are conducted in three municipalities in the selected catchments to discuss damages and damage repair after the two extreme flood events and the impact of Page 2 / 39

ACRP – Calls for Proposals the preventive measures taken between the events. To allow a complete representation of the financial burdens of the municipalities and flood protection associations a complete delimitation of the flood-related expenditures has been carried out. By combining interviews with mayors of the municipalities (which are frequently in parallel leaders of the flood protection associations) and budget data explorations, it was observed, that flood protection associations in the catchments, established after the severe flood 2002, are essential for sharing risk and costs between the municipalities upstream and downstream the rivers. In the interviews with representatives of the municipalities and leaders of the flood protection associations it was emphasized, that without flood protection associations, larger flood prevention projects could not have been realized. The inter-municipal coordination of flood prevention projects through flood protection associations has proven in Upper Austria to be highly successful. Further, high-resolution climate simulations are examined which show, that in future decades frequency and magnitude of extreme events will increase, which let expect more damages and higher repair costs and will require further adaptation measures improving extreme flood prevention. Summarizing the results, the following conclusions are derived: 

Flood risk management is a major challenge for the municipalities, which requires collaboration at various administrative levels. Flood risk management spending on response, aftercare and prevention is included in many budget subsections, making it difficult to delineate flood risk management spending.



Statistical analyses of municipality budget data related to flood damage repair and adaptation show that spent adaptation costs in heavily exposed municipalities do not necessarily lead to lower damage costs during the next subsequent flood event. But the analyses confirm, that adaptation measures, especially in upstream municipalities, have damage cost mitigating effects to heavily exposed municipalities. Maladaptation can be largely excluded in the examined catchments.



Extraction and analysis of high-resolution climate simulations for the study area with a focus on extreme events are required to make statements on the extent to which the occurrence of more frequent and / or more extreme events can be expected in the future.



Flood risk management as a regional issue requires cooperation between the municipalities. Flood protection associations were emphasized of being of central importance for the heavily exposed municipalities as they distribute flood related costs between (heavily and less exposed) municipalities in the catchment, organise subsidy for those measures from regional government and federal state and coordinate larger flood prevention projects.

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ACRP – Calls for Proposals 2.2 Contents and results of the project 2.2.1

Initial situation / motivation for the project

According to the Austrian National Adaptation Strategy (BMLFUW, 2012), climate adaptation activities require the active participation of the municipalities. In view of the municipalities’ tight budgets, adaptation measures to climate change need to be implemented as effectively and efficiently as possible. The relationship between adaptation and damage, or the costs of managing it, and the resulting efficiency of measures has been little studied so far. The project is intended to contribute to this. 2.2.2

Objectives of the project

The objective of the project is to analyse budgetary impacts of flood repair and adaptation measures and the effectiveness of flood protection measures by analysing costs of managing damage before and after implementation of the measures in the flood exposed municipalities, as well as in the upstream and downstream municipalities of the respective river. It will also be assessed whether adaptation measures turn out to be maladaptation. Further sub-goals are: • Analysis of high-resolution future climate scenarios for the study area with a focus on extreme precipitation events to explore budgetary impacts of extreme flood events during future climate conditions. • Conducting case studies in three municipalities with a qualitative analysis of the flood risk-related effects, budgetary burdens, the roles of the actors involved and the effectiveness of flood protection measures • Providing conclusions and recommendations for practice 2.2.3

Activities performed within the framework of the project, including methods employed

2.2.3.1 Data acquisition, merging and analysis of geospatial and climate related data The selection of river catchments for case studies requires, that these areas are relatively closed catchment areas, whose spatial conditions can be mapped by few indicators, and are little affected by transregional influences like hydropower plants, to concentrate on effects of local adaptation measures in the catchment on flood damage. Catchments of three small rivers in Upper Austria have been selected to examine adaptation costs versus damage repair costs to identify the effects of adaptation measures on damage volume. As analysis period 2001 to 2015 was selected, a period during which two extreme precipitation events and subsequently severe flood events occurred at the same time and with similar intensity and where corresponding municipality household data are available to analyze the budgetary effects of flood damage and adaptation measures. Page 4 / 39

ACRP – Calls for Proposals 

Indicators to identify spatial flood risk

To quantify effects of flood events, geospatial data were comoiled to examine spatial conditions wirthrepsect to flood risk and generate some flood-relevant spatial indicators for the municipalities to investigate flood - damage repair costs for municipalities in the selected catchment areas: 

Methods employed

The demarcation of river catchments was carried out by means of a digital elevation model and the river network applying hydrological analysis functions in a Geographical Information System for modeling rainfall runoff with runoff-directions and quantities. Spatial indicators used to depict the spatial characteristics of the municipalities were carried out using land use data to identify the municipalities’ settlement locations with its areal extent, a digital elevation model and the river network to identify elevation differences and distances to the river. The municipalities were ranked within the catchment based on the altitude of the main settlement of each municipality, to categories local costs as well as costs from upstream and downstream municipalities. 

Analysis of the climate and hydrology characteristics

Regional precipitation and discharge characteristics were examined for the catchment areas of three rivers. 

Methods employed

For the three river basins the meteorological dynamics were examined by means of daily precipitation totals of from the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) and the Hydrographic Central Bureau (HZB). Daily discharge levels at the considered rivers have been extracted from the discharge records of the available HZB monitoring sites. As study period the years 2001 – 2015 has been selected. 2.2.3.2 Municipality budget analysis on climate change adaptation and mitigation costs 

Flood prevention and flood protection and rescue management

Before analyzing the budgets regarding costs of climate adaptation and damage repair, the basics on flood prevention and flood protection management were first compiled from various sources and the responsibilities of the political bodies were identified. Additional the financing relationships in flood prevention, flood protection and rescue management were considered. 

Obligations of the municipalities and flood protection associations

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ACRP – Calls for Proposals First obligations of the municipalities with respect to coping with, and prevention for flooding have been described: The foci of the municipal responsibilities are on the one hand, coordination and disaster management, rescue and aftercare (clean-up, restoration of infrastructures and damaged objects). In prevention, municipalities are responsible for protective measures and for the preparation of a civil protection plan. The municipalities and additionally flood protection associations appear as interested parties in flood protection measures. 

Budget analysis

Subsequently, the budgets from the regional government and municipalities as well as from the flood protection association (local authorities) in the particular catchment have been analyzed regarding expenditures for flood damage repair and for adaptation measures for flood prevention. Therefore, budget sections and budget items have to be assigned to measure groups which have been compiled. 

Compilation of expenditures of the municipalities linked to flood events

As far as possible, the municipalities’ flood-relevant expenditures have been linked to flood events and summarized for prevention, response and aftercare. Because of classification problems only a few budget topics can be grouped separately. Screening the expenditures of the municipalities three budget topics remain: flood prevention, road construction and repair and emergency aid. 

Methods employed



Desk research supported by interviews with municipality and regional government representatives to identify obligations with respect to flood prevention.



The budget analysis is based on a financial statistical analysis of the financial statements of the municipalities (Source: Statistics Austria) in the catchments of the rivers Aist, Krems and Vöckla. Expenditures have been extracted for the period 2001 – 2014. The central element here is the assignment of individual budget items (subsections according to the household and accounting ordinance) to municipal tasks within the framework of flood management.



Aggregated expenditures for catchments and municipalities, clustered into exposure groups, have been standardized by population numbers and the cost per capita summarized for municipality exposure groups were related to the extreme events and the plausibility of the expenditures for adaptation measures, response and aftercare discussed.

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ACRP â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Calls for Proposals 2.2.3.3 Statistical analysis of flood related costs and effects of adaptation measures Multiple regression analyses have been carried out applying budget data from the municipalities of the three river basins. The regression models are used to investigate potentially cost-reducing effects on flood damage mitigation through adaptation measures for selected budget sectors. The variables to be explained are flood- damage costs in the respective municipality for three cost groups: flood protection facilities, road construction and repair, emergency aid of the extreme flood event years (and cost differences between the two events). Adaptation measure costs and damage repair costs of the municipalities were taken as proxy for adaptation efforts and flood damage repair efforts. Two indicators describing the municipalities flood risk have been added: elevation difference and horizontal distance between valley floor and nearest settlement. Costs were standardized using river length and settlement area in each municipality to exclude the effect of the municipality size. Not only local adaptation measure implementation was considered, but also measures taken in upstream or downstream municipalities to identify any (positive or negative) spillover effect. The catchment sequence of municipalities within each river was used to group costs into upstream- and downstream measures. For each exposed municipality its upstream adaptation measure costs were aggregated by summarizing the particular budget numbers of the municipalities in 5km-distance classes upstream till 30 km distance. Downstream adaptation measure costs for each exposed municipality have been from budget numbers from the municipalities within 5km downstream distance. Finally, instead of costs by distance classes, the overall upstream and downstream costs have been considered. ď&#x201A;ˇ

Methods employed:

ď&#x201A;ˇ

Multiple regression analyses have been applied to statistically describe the dependencies of damage repair costs on explanatory variables (adaptation costs (local und upstream/downstream) and spatial risk indicators). The regression models were expected to be applied for estimating a reduction of damage repair costs due to adaptation measures implemented which did not work as repair costs are high respectively increase since the last flood event in many municipalities despite considerable adaptation activities. Our regression model(s) for the research question look as follows: (1) and (2) where: :

repair costs of municipality (m)

difference of repair cost in (year b minus year a) in municipality m

spatial risk (i) in municipality m

adaptation costs between the two floods (2004-2012) in municipality m Page 7 / 39

ACRP – Calls for Proposals :

upstream adaptation costs (as sum of costs of municipalities in

distance k) referring to municipality m : downstream adaptation costs (as sum of costs of (adjacent) municipalities referring to municipality m 

Residual analyses have been conducted by observing the residual scattergrams of residuals versus deviations from observations to identify how good the estimation results match the observations.

2.2.3.4 Case studies on costs and effects of adaptation measures Because of the uncertainty of the regression-model-driven impact assessment of adaptation measures on damage repair costs after flood events, case studies were conducted in three municipalities in the selected catchment areas to allow an in-depth view by exploring the observed extreme events and relate them to adaptation measures taken before and the repair measures taken after the flood events. Additionally, the geographical characteristics, the sociodemographic structure, the precipitation variation and the discharge regime of the rivers have been examined in an integrated way. In interviews with representatives of the municipalities and the related flood protection association, the role of the actors, the financial burdens on municipalities for response, aftercare and prevention have been investigated. Main contact persons were mayors, who often also headed flood protection associations. 

Methods employed



Case study work

Three municipalities in three river basins were selected as case studies. Field observations, desk research, discussions with stakeholders and in-depth interviews with representatives of the municipalities and flood protection associations have been carried out to get an overall picture on flood related costs, set measures, actors’ activities, responsibilities and achieved impact. Interviews based on a qualitative interview guide on the roles of stakeholders, the roles and financial burdens of communities and the effectiveness of flood prevention measures had taken place. In addition, a document analysis was carried out to describe the financial burdens of the municipalities and financial statistics analyzes based on the financial statements of the municipalities and flood protection associations (local authorities).

2.2.3.5 Expected cost effects of climate change due to extreme precipitation events Future flood events which might occur in one or several future decades cannot be "predicted", but estimations on frequency and magnitude of future heavy precipitation events at a regional scale are possible. These estimations can be carried out by analyzing the Page 8 / 39

ACRP – Calls for Proposals occurrence of precipitation events modelled in future climate simulations. Compared with the prior observations, changes in the number of heavy rainfall events and rainfall volume can be identified within decades and related to years and seasons. Based on the characteristics of heavy rainfall occurrences, frequency and severity of related flood events can be derived. To assess the uncertainty of the predictions, the similarity between modelled results and observations must be checked. This has been carried out, by comparing the precipitation pattern during extreme flood events 2002 and 2013 with the modelled precipitation pattern from hindcast simulations (modelling current climate based on recorded data). 

Methods employed:



Regional climate simulations

Use of a regional climate model (RCM), which calculates the atmospheric dynamics under given greenhouse gas concentrations at the regional scale. Global climate models (GCMs) map the dynamics of atmospheric layers through mathematical equations related to a three-dimensional grid of a few 100 km down to (in best case) 100 km grid spacing. For smaller regions finer resolved regional RCMs are used to model the atmospheric dynamics with a higher resolution. The GCMs framework conditions are transferred to the RCM at its domain boundaries in 6-hour increments. Here AIT’s reclip:century scenario based on HadCM3 GCM results for greenhouse gas scenario A1B is the background. COSMO-CLM (http://www.clm-municipality.eu/) was applied as regional climate model to improve the 10x10km resolution to a 4x4km grid spacing for Austria. 

Time series analysis and spatial analysis of climate data

Diagrams and maps depicting frequency and intensity of current and future extreme precipitation events (and the changes over time) were generated for the considered river basins: the results of the 4 x 4 km hindcast runs and control runs for the prior period 1981-2010 were compared with those of the future period 2021-2050 and the differences were evaluated for the considered river basins. The ÖKS15 ensemble data for future climate (BMNT, 2016) have been extracted for upper Austria from the CCCA data server (https://data.ccca.ac.at/). Averages from the RCP8.5 business-as-usual scenario, and the RCP4.5 climate protection scenario. Time series analysis of extreme precipitation events was conducted comparing ÖKS15 averages for Upper Austria with AIT’s extended reclip:century 4x4 km simulation results, mapped for the study area.

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ACRP – Calls for Proposals 2.2.4

Description of results

2.2.4.1 Data acquisition, merging and analysis of geospatial and climate related data The municipalities located in the catchments of three rivers in Upper Austria have been selected - Aist, Krems and Vöckla - to examine adaptation costs versus damage repair to identify the effects of adaptation measures on damage volume. All three catchments were affected by local flood events at about the same time and with similar intensity during the last 15 years. Indicators on spatial characteristics have been extracted to quantify the impact of the spatial framework conditions on flood risk for settlements, infrastructure and population. 

Variables indicating spatial risk potentials for flooding

To quantify flood risk, geospatial data (land use map, digital elevation model, river network) were used to generate selected spatial indicators for each municipality in the catchments. The finally used indicators to characterize flood risk in the regression models are height difference and horizontal difference between valley floor and the nearest settlement in the municipality. Settlement area and river length are used for standardization of cost data, elevation sequence is used to consider the municipalities upstream – downstream relations.

Figure 1 depicts two exemplary maps of these indicators for the Aist catchment Elevation sequence of the municipalities in the catchment area for the identification of the upstream / downstream relationships (left), land cover in the catchment area (right) – Source: CORINE Landcover classes (right), EEA; compilation AIT)



Analysis of climate and hydrology characteristics in the study area

Figure 2 shows the discharge levels between 2001 and 2015 for one water level recording each at the rivers Aist, Krems and Vöckla. In the period two extreme flood events were Page 10 / 39

ACRP – Calls for Proposals simultaneously recorded in all three catchments (yellow bars): in August 2002, the 100-year flood mark exceeded in all three catchments. The second extreme event took place in June 2013, which was less pronounced in the Aist catchment area. The comparability of the observed precipitation events and thus flood events in 2002 and 2013 is given so far, so a rough comparison of impacts and costs seems to be possible The extreme flood events took place at intervals of about 10 years. Weaker events (3-, 5-, and 10-year floods) were recorded during the observed 15 years more frequently, turning the formerly multi-year events into almost annual events (orange bars).

Figure 2 Daily mean values of the discharge levels at Schwertberg, Kremsdorf and Vöcklabruck, each in the lower river basin areas of the Aist, Krems and Vöckla between 1.1.2000 and 31.12.2013 (Source: Hydrographic Central Office, 2000 to 2013, compilation and evaluation: AIT)

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ACRP â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Calls for Proposals 2.2.4.2 Municipality budget analysis on climate change adaptation and mitigation costs

Figure 3 Tasks of the municipalities for the three phases of flood management (Source: Own presentation based on: BMLFW: Flood Protection, 2006, p. 10; Interviews from the three case studies.)

Before analyzing the budget situation regarding costs of climate adaptation and damage management, the basics of flood protection and flood protection management were first prepared and the responsibilities of the actors researched. ď&#x201A;ˇ

Tasks of the municipalities and flood protection associations

The focal points of the municipal tasks are, on the one hand, coordination and disaster management, rescue and aftercare (clean-up, restoration of infrastructures and damaged objects). On the other hand, in prevention municipalities are responsible for protective measures addressing spatial planning and for the preparation of a civil protection plan. The

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ACRP â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Calls for Proposals municipalities and flood protection associations also appear as interested parties in protective hydraulic engineering

measures.

Figure 3 describes the 3 phases of flood management and related subtasks.

Phase 1 Response - immediate disaster relief Coping with and immediate relief during flood events is largely the responsibility of the communities. In addition to coordination, the central tasks include the preparation of preparatory protective measures and acute rescue measures.. Phase 2 Aftercare - clean up and restoration The focus of aftercare is on the clean-up of public space and on the repair or restoration of municipal buildings and facilities, furthermore the traffic, water supply and wastewater infrastructure. The repair of municipal damage is generally co-financed by the Disaster Relief Fund. Phase 3 Prevention - precautions and protective measures The focus of prevention is the development of disaster control, alarm and operational plans. For structural protection measures, municipalities or flood protection associations usually appear as interested parties. To finance measures to prevent and eliminate disaster damage, the Disaster Relief Fund was set up as a central instrument at the federal level. For projects up to 110,000 euros, 2/3 funding come from state and regional governments, municipalities must pay 1/3. For larger projects, more funding share is provided by state and Page 13 / 39

ACRP â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Calls for Proposals regional government. As municipalities must take over a significant part of damage repair costs themselves, they have an incentive to invest in prevention. ď&#x201A;ˇ

Budget analysis

Subsequently, the budgets of the regional government and municipalities were analyzed for spending on climate change adaptation and extreme event management. To assess the budgetary impact of community tasks in flood management, it is necessary to link measure tasks and budget data. For this purpose, individual budget items were assigned to the tasks described above. In a further step, the subsections were grouped into nine task areas â&#x20AC;&#x201C; see Fig. 4). Costs for response (damage management and emergency aid) can only be partially refunded. Measures such as disaster management, preparatory protective measures and acute rescue measures are included in personal costs for municipal employees and supply costs, but also in increased material costs. As part of aftercare, cleanup and repair there are costs experienced for the municipalities in addition to personnel costs for the reconstruction of infrastructure. In addition, there are further costs for waste disposal, compensation payments to farmers for retention basins and the allowance for the provision of various auxiliary equipment and materials. In terms of prevention, the municipalities incur costs for erection, maintenance and repair of municipal flood protection facilities, as well as contribute to flood protection associations.

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ACRP â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Calls for Proposals

Figure 4 Areas of the municipality budget with financial implications of flood events, Source: KDZ Page 15 / 39

ACRP – Calls for Proposals 

Expenditures of the municipalities

Municipalities’ expenditures, linked to flood events, have been summarized and analyzed considering the measure sectors prevention, response and aftercare (Figure 4). Because of the demarcation problems, only some cost positions in the budgets can be displayed separately. Screening the expenditures in the cost sectors flood prevention, road and emergency aid shows over time a similar development. With a certain temporal delay, there is an increase in expenditures for flood protection engineering. There can be only little fluctuations observed over time because of the flood protection associations, where the municipalities make ongoing financial contributions. In the municipality budgets are therefore usually only current contributions, whereas the expenditures of the flood protection associations show significant fluctuations. Emergency aid shows significant fluctuations, which is directly related to the flood events. Flood protection projects require longer time for planning and approval and are therefore usually implemented several years after a triggering flood event.

300

Euro per inhabitant

The following graphs show expenditure totals for the three spending groups flood protection, road construction and repair and emergency relief per capita as a sum for the municipalities.

expenditure according to selected tasks all catchments 250

200

150

100

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 flood protection

emergency aid

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

road

flood protection

300

emergency aid

road

300

expenditure accourding to selected tasks Catchment Traun 250

200

Euro per inhabitant

expenditure according to selected tasks Catchment Aist-Naarn 250

expenditure according to selected tasks Catchment Steyr-Enns 250

200

150

100

0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 flood protection

emergency aid

road

0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 flood protection emergency aid road

Figure 5 Municipal spending in flood-related tasks in large river basins (Source: Expenditure monitoring of the municipalities, via Statistics Austria 2001-2014, calculations: KDZ)

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ACRP – Calls for Proposals 2.2.4.3 Statistical analysis of costs and effects of adaptation measures after flood events Multiple regression analyses have been conducted for the municipalities of the three riverbasins of Aist, Krems and Vöckla. The hypothesis for developing the regression models to explain (and quantify) effects of adaptation measures on flood damage, was, that flood damage and thus costs of damage repair are lower or will decline in case of many efforts taken for flood protection – local ones as well as upstream and downstream. Spatial characteristics may influence flood risk in a positive or negative way – e.g. long distances and a large elevation differences between river and settlements may lead to lower damage loss, short distances to the river indicate higher flood risk leading to higher damage loss. Table 1: Adaptation costs, damage repair costs for the three measure groups: flood control, roads, emergency aid Gemeinde

catchment

Grünbach Rainbach im Mühlkreis Freistadt Lasberg Kefermarkt Pregarten Hagenberg im Mühlkreis Wartberg ob der Aist Tragwein Ried in der Riedmark Schwertberg Perg Naarn im Machlande Mauthausen

Aist Aist Aist Aist Aist Aist Aist Aist Aist Aist Aist Aist Aist Aist

Micheldorf in OÖ Kirchdorf a.d. Krems Inzersdorf im Kremstal Schlierbach Nußbach Wartberg an der Krems Ried im Traunkreis

Krems Krems Krems Krems Krems Krems Krems

Kremsmünster

Krems

Kematen an der Krems Piberbach Neuhofen an der Krems

Krems

Sankt Marien Ansfelden

Krems Krems

Catch Dist_ ment- settlmsequence river

Height_ settlmriver

Adaptation Waterprotection Street repair, construction Costs 2004-Costs 2002- Costs 2013- Dif_Costs 02- Costs 2002Costs Dif_Costs 022012 03 14 02/13-14 03 2013-14 02/13-14

1.203

160

346

186

15.461

24.006

674

5.528

3.058

41.244

32.331

190

5.679

1.854

7.848

5.994

239.885

337.950

177

17.934

3.440

2.464

976

17.530

14.300

224

2.802

1.640

26.778

131

1.519

946

944

503

1.007

709

713

1.122

393

864

471

661

6.625

4.506

2.159

574

25.679

1.181

228.342

367

1.357

2.400

136

18.668

9.975

9.110

865

156

177.313

12.124

15.392

3.268

918

8.687

2.384

6.981

4.597

16.291

22.227

Rescue Costs 201314

Dif_Costs 0202/13-14

8.546

627.157

420.329

206.829

8.912

499.577

374.467

125.110

98.066

624.249

279.974

344.274

3.229

329.613

230.448

99.165

18.371

8.408

499.988

286.328

213.660

60.769

40.831

19.939

386.692

177.977

208.716

122.968

51.975

70.993

537.519

215.992

321.527

367.281

347.888

19.393

240.819

262.869

22.050

2.347

13.753

12.828

925

204.236

222.961

18.726

2.463

1.283

733.398

266.434

466.964

448.673

475.842

10.939

43.269

32.330

110.927

73.839

37.088

814.152

291.121

538.835

118.352

121.712

3.360

1.283.590

1.444.976

161.386

867.834

1.654.275

786.441

79.022

2.603

59.896

57.292

2.731.612

2.874.794

143.182

379.963

604.255

224.292

104.125

2.621

5.021

2.400

11.342.501

7.240.257

4.102.244

679.176

810.392

131.216

52.936

44.805

8.130

203.612

166.157

725.142

548.965

176.178

452.839

450.026

2.813

5.936

700.263

305.206

395.057

27.169 -

523.031

37.454

581

25.209

2.364

20.614

18.250

61.420

61.727

307

95.853

120.343

24.491

2.736

27.517

9.381

24.461

15.080

22.117

34.108

11.991

135.181

355.780

220.598

25.901

305.432

252.767

9.769

349.082

376.707

27.625

29.241

434.937

536.515

101.578

2.029

580.737

181.363

1.607

237.416

387.425

93.578

925.489

268.265

657.225

27.448

454.351

325.909

128.442

821.139

247.353

573.786

1.853.544

43.723

44.911

8.096

36.815

54.667

28.766

3.101

105

5.334

1.950

2.397

447

138.165

147.934

313

21.514

1.736

8.632

6.896

93.986

64.745

Krems

145

42.952

10.487

27.949

17.462

38.669

40.697

Krems

265

15.452

194

5.201

5.006

52.549

50.943

203

40.921

46.598

15.628

30.970

45.265

138.843

316

25.467

219

9.505

9.287

127.857

100.409

308

143.348

269

21.381

21.112

180.035

191.389

11.354

1.239

525

4.351

1.786

1.614

113.673

909

52.698

Weißenkirchen i.Attergau Vöckla Frankenmarkt Vöckla

Costs 2002-03

172

179.043

280.372

101.329

23.514

110.711

51.789

1.020.804

1.359.783

338.979

2.225.840

372.295

52.666

399.374 150.009

87.198

Redleiten

Vöckla

812

1.302

109.368

110.862

1.495

14.467

31.374

16.907

Fornach

Vöckla

651

4.584

806

1.148

342

320.870

337.266

16.396

31.844

530.992

499.148

Pfaffing

Vöckla

639

30.027

126

4.840

4.714

303.892

231.120

72.772

276.236

52.019

224.217

Frankenburg am Hausruck Vöckla

94.530

26.569

31.552

4.983

1.152.678

1.880.442

727.763

928.701

632.734

295.968

Vöcklamarkt

Vöckla

199

8.894

3.483

1.485

1.998

1.151.494

1.282.899

131.405

301.379

431.593

Neukirchen an der Vöckla Vöckla

248

4.912

2.446

662

1.784

612.093

885.849

273.756

201.215

190.087

6.543

6.074

529.377

606.803

77.426

154.607

447.871

125.901

221.446

174.659

270.390

155.491

59.769

Straß im Attergau

130.214 -

11.128

Vöckla

Sankt Georgen i.Attergau Vöckla

400

3.175

4.547

5.173

626

1.416.453

1.290.553

Berg im Attergau

Vöckla

288

3.382

828

787

284.087

554.477

Gampern

Vöckla

595

7.582

1.023

2.645

1.621

1.208.014

1.060.520

147.494

416.412

685.923

269.512

Timelkam

Vöckla

11.157

332

48.071

47.739

1.749.443

1.616.446

132.997

151.977

210.069

58.092

Ampflwang im H.

Vöckla

341

1.092

2.439

1.680

759

1.501.643

1.170.309

331.334

231.852

288.701

56.849

Zell am Pettenfirst

Vöckla

189

61.947

11.005

2.499

8.506

512.863

119.802

393.061

62.465

71.194

8.729

Puchkirchen am Trattberg Vöckla

1.339

5.857

127

725

599

213.335

158.367

54.968

26.714

146.039

119.325

143

3.506

3.170

3.768

1.521

Ungenach

Vöckla

Vöcklabruck

Vöckla

17 18

2.247

245.522

713.691

5.492.517

4.701.820

293.264 46.787 95.722

468.169

41.046

45.060

4.014

790.697

441.539

491.944

50.404

(Costs of adaptation and repair measures of the municipalities in the three catchment areas are standardized.) (Sources: Costs Search and Compilation: KDZ; Aggregation, Standardization: AIT) Page 17 / 39

ACRP – Calls for Proposals Table 1 lists the spatial risk indicators, damage repair costs by catchment area in the years of the extreme flood events (and the respective following year) 2002-2003 and 2013-2014 (and their differences) and for the three cost groups flood protection, road construction and repair and emergency aid adaptation costs. As costs for adaptation measures the sums of the expenditures for flood prevention measures between 2004 and 2012 where added to the table – the years after and before the consecutive extreme flood events, assuming that the budgeted expenditures by the municipalities mainly flow into prevention measures. The spatial indicators to be added to the regression analyses did not always derive clear results because of the complex terrain: settlements in the catchments are widely scattered in the quite hilly terrain and partly off the addressed rivers or their larger tributaries. Municipalities whose settlements the Vöckla river do not pass directly, are marked in red. Municipalities with blue shaded name fields are those, where linear measures (dams, weirs) have been established, which could result in maladaptation for the upstream municipalities – e.g. through backwater. Table 2 shows the regression coefficients of each of the six regression models (three for explaining damage costs and three for explaining change of damage costs for three cost groups) for the three catchment areas. The table is divided vertically into three parts for the three catchments’ municipalities. The first two lines of each part show the correlation coefficients R2 and the P-values of the regression models. The correlation coefficient R2 describes the quality of the function. In general: values near to 1, indicate high explanatory quality for describing the linear relationship. The P-value describes the significance of the models and of the individual regression coefficients with respect to the 0-hypothesis - that is, whether fluctuations of the results are random or not. The regression coefficients of highest statistical significance are marked: *** = p <0.001; ** = p <0.01; * = p <0.1. P-values <0.05 indicate a >95% probability that the 0-hypothesis does not apply. The next rows show in each sub-table the (standardized) regression coefficients. The three left columns show the coefficients for the adaptation measures’ expenditures 2004-2012 and for the spatial risk indicators which contribute to the explanation of the damage repair costs 2013-14. The three right-hand columns show the regression coefficients of the same explanatory variables, which contribute to the explanation of the change in damage repair expenditures from 2002-03 to 2013-14. The models’ R2 is quite low and the P-values show also low significance. The models for cost change cannot be applied for forecast issues as their damage repair costs were frequently increasing despite adaptation measure implementation in the prior years. In general, the regression models show, that the applicability of the equations and the significance of the results decrease with increasing complexity of the orography in the catchment areas, hampering a linear statistical derivation of the relationship between adaptation costs and repair costs.

Page 18 / 39

ACRP – Calls for Proposals Table 2 Regression coefficients of the adaptation effort costs to explain the claims management costs 2013-2014 and the change in the claims management costs 2013-2014 compared to 2002-2003 waterprotectioncosts Sub-Catchments 2013-2014 AIST 0.867 R2 ** 0.002 P-value std-coeff 0.002 dist_riv-settl -0.062 hei-riv-settl 0.914 FloodP_AC *** -0.025 FloodP_AC_up -0.012 FloodP_AC_down Krems R2 P-value

Vöckla R2 P-value dist_riv-settl hei-riv-settl FloodP_AC FloodP_AC_up FloodP_AC_down ***: p <0,001

rescuecosts

2013-2014

waterprotectioncosts dif. 13/14 02/03

0.948

0.940

0.492

*** 0.000

0.276

std-coeff

*** 0.912

0.805 *

0.039

std-coeff dist_riv-settl hei-riv-settl FloodP_AC FloodP_AC_up FloodP_AC_down

road-repaircosts

road-repaircosts dif. 13/14 02/03

rescuecosts dif. 13/14 02/03

0.691 *

0.054

0.853 **

0.004

std-coeff

-0.826

0.293

-0.393

0.151

0.370

*** 1.014

-0.180

0.072

0.968

0.005

-0.176

-0.010

-0.031

-0.089

-0.001

-0.240

0.615

-0.055

-0.484

0.606

0.242

0.314

** -0.270

0.079

0.116

0.861

0.207

0.435

0.495

0.015

0.888

0.908

0.418

0.647

std-coeff

std-coeff 0.132

2,496

-0.861

-0.549

1.032

0.655

2.478

1.059

0.865

-0.761

-0.637

0.089

0.331

** 0.934

0.366

0.223

-0.524

-0.339

-0.053

** -0.185

0.226

0.015

0.399

-0.544

-0.088

0.200

0.123

0.126

-0.231

0.209

0.931

0.365

0.188

0.884

0.201

0.821

0.000

0.300

0.733

** 0.010

0.826

*** 0.000

std-coeff

-0.004

** -0.813

-0.132

0.044

0.085

0.221

-0.249

0.011

0.188

-0.485

0.299

0.357

***

0.554

-0.365

0.406

0.181

0.609

-0.308

-0.115

-0.435

0.453

-0.442

0.386

0.826

0.658

-0.162

-0.001

***

0.681

0.035

0.158

***

**: p <0,01

*: p <0,1

(Distinguished by cost categories (flood protection, road maintenance, aftercare) and the three catchment areas Aist, Krems and Vöckla (Source: AIT)

The regression models can be interpreted as follows: The municipalities’ local flood protection adaptation costs in the catchments of Aist and Vöckla are linked to higher local flood protection damage repair costs. High flood protection costs in upstream and downstream municipalities of the catchments of Aist and Krems contribute to local damage reduction. In contrast, in the Vöckla catchment a statistically highly significant damage-cost-increasing effect of adaptation measures in downstream municipalities is observed. Here, it is necessary to investigate if the measures taken downstream lead to maladaptation - for example by backwater. Higher local flood protection adaptation costs in municipalities of the Krems catchment are accompanied by higher costs for road construction and repair: despite high local adaptation costs, road construction and repair costs in 2013 remain high. High adaptation expenditures

Page 19 / 39

ACRP – Calls for Proposals in upstream as well as downstream municipalities reduce local flood-related road repair costs. (For the Aist and Vöckla, the models are statistically not relevant (P-value > 0.3). Higher local flood protection costs in the Aist catchment municipalities are linked to higher expenditures for emergency aid. Flood protection expenditures in upstream and downstream municipalities confirm a damage-mitigating effect for emergency aid in the Aist catchment. Regression models for Krems and Vöckla catchments are not significant (P-value > 0.7). 

Analysis of residuals

Figure 6 shows the scattering of the residuals of the regression functions to explain the damage costs versus the predicted values. The three catchments Aist, Krems and Vöckla are related to columns 1-3. The cost groups are related to rows 1-3.

Figure 6 Residuals of the regression models to explain damage costs (Columns: Aist, Krems, Vöckla catchment areas, rows: damage repair costs for flood protection, road construction / repair, emergency aid) (Source: AIT) Page 20 / 39

ACRP – Calls for Proposals The diagrams in column 1 (explained damage management costs for flood protection measures related to river length) show a dense point cloud for the catchments Aist and Krems, i.e. a small dispersion of the deviations and thus quite precise estimation results (municipalities with low costs of up to some 1000 Euro/km river length in the Aist and up to 20,000 Euro / km river length in the Krems catchment) and only a few outliers (in municipalities with high adaptation costs). For the estimated damage repair costs for roads (row 2) as well as for emergency aid (row 3), the range of residuals is in relation to the estimated values significantly larger. Deviations for road repair scatter more, due to high variation of the catchments in road length and road maintenance responsibilities (In the Krems and Vöckla catchments a larger share of roads are not maintained by the municipalities (federal motorways, provincial main roads). The variation of emergency costs is wide because of different flood exposure of the population within the municipalities.) As damage repair costs for various municipalities and cost groups have been growing from event 2002 to event 2013, despite adaptation between, many regression models describing change are not usable to estimate damage cost reduction and the residuals of these functions are not further interpreted. 2.2.4.4 Case studies on the costs and effects of adaptation measures Because of the limitations of the regression models to assessment the impact of adaptation measures to reduce flood-related damage affecting the municipal budgets, an in-depth exploration has been conducted for three case study municipalities. Within this the following contents were processed: • Geographical and structural data of the catchments and municipalities • Hydrology of the catchment, severe precipitation and flood events • Role of the actors • Financial burdens on the municipalities for flood prevention, response and aftercare • Effectiveness of flood protection measures Conversations and interviews with representatives of the regional government of Upper Austria and the following municipalities and flood protection associations were conducted within the case studies. 

Municipality Schwertberg



Municipality Gutau



Flood Protection Association Aist



Municipality Ansfelden



Municipality St. Marien



Flood Protection Association Lower Kremstal and Flood Protection Association Kremstal



Municipality Vöcklabruck

Page 21 / 39

ACRP – Calls for Proposals With regard to the geographical location and the structural data, in particular the population dynamics as well as the changes of the building and housing numbers were presented and the catchment area of the selected river was described. A description was given of the hydrography, the flood events and the influencing factors for an increased flood risk. This was supplemented by a presentation of the flood protection measures of the municipalities and flood protection associations. The interviews provided information on the actors involved and their tasks. The role of municipalities and flood protection associations in the phases of response, aftercare and prevention was identified. The focus here was on the tasks of the actors, cooperation and financing. The interviews were supplemented with an analysis of the revenues and expenditures of the municipalities and flood protection associations in connection with flood events within the period from 2002 to 2014. 4.5 Expected cost effects of climate change due to precipitation extreme events To estimate cost effects future extreme precipitation and flood events has been examined. Figure 7 shows the expected frequency of future extreme rainfall events. The events observed in Upper Austria in the years 2002 and 2013 can be found in the ÖKS15 results. In Upper Austria an average annual increase of 1 to 2 days of heavy rainfall is expected, by 2100. In some years no or few heavy precipitation events will occur while in other years a significantly higher number of heavy precipitation days can be expected. There are no reliable judgements about the intensity, but it can be assumed that higher temperatures lead to higher water content in the atmosphere, resulting in more intensive precipitation events.

Figure 7 Annual sums of extreme precipitation events (> 95% percentile) 1970-2010, projection 2011 - 2100 (Source: ÖKS 15 simulations; Analysis and illustration: AIT)

The AIT extended reclip:century simulations show, (in close agreement with the ÖKS15 results) that by 2050 extreme precipitation events in Upper Austria will increase by about two days per year (Figure 8). Indicating an increase in intensity of the flood events, more efforts in adaptation measures are required and, at, future damage repair costs can be expected also to increase.

Page 22 / 39

ACRP â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Calls for Proposals

Figure 8 Annual number of days with extreme precipitation (> 20mm / d) left: 1970-2010, right: 2021-2050 (Source: AIT; extended reclip: century simulations - HADCM3-COSMO CML run, IPCC AR14 A1B GHG scenario)

2.3

Description of difficulties encountered in the achievement of project targets

The budget analysis shows that damage repair costs increased in many municipalities of the three study catchments, despite serious efforts taken to carry out adaptation measures for mitigating effects of flood events This was surprising and did not allow to apply the regression models for prospective estimations of financial adaptation effects. The municipalitiesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; budget data did not cover all expenditures for adaptation and damage repair after flood events. It turned out that in Upper Austria flood protection associations play a major role in organising flood prevention projects and expenditures, related not only to the municipalities which are most exposed to flood risk but to all municipalities within the catchment area. Thus, it was necessary to search for those additional expenditure data. Despite intensive efforts, it was not possible for us to obtain comprehensive data from the flood protection associations. A large share of flood related adaptation costs is taken over by the regional government and the federal state. Further the municipalities within a catchment (which became members of the flood protection associations) committed to share adaptation costs within the catchment, thus heavily exposed municipalities are contributing less to finance adaptation measures as they are supported by those municipalities which experience no to little damage. Thus, the expenditures did not reflect adaptation measure implementations and damage repair to full extent, which distorts the statistical relation between flood protection adaptation costs and damage repair costs. Therefore, the regression analysis could not be used in the original way to predict a reduction of damage because of more adaptation activities. The functions now were used to examine the share of influence of local adaptation measures as well as measures in upstream and downstream municipalities, besides the influence of spatial framework conditions. Page 23 / 39

ACRP – Calls for Proposals Because of these methodological difficulties, we decided to complement the quantitative approach by a more qualitative approach in the form of case studies. This approach made it possible to isolate the income and expenditure of municipalities and flood protection associations in the fields of prevention, response and aftercare. It also made it possible to work out the role of the actors and the concrete challenges of the local level in the field of flood management. In the interviews in the municipalities and flood protection associations, the issue of the effectiveness of flood protection measures was also discussed in particular.

2.4

Description of project “highlights”

The effectiveness of the flood protection associations was a positive surprise. It turned out that in Upper Austria flood protection associations play a major role in organising adaptation projects and negotiating the distribution of adaptation-related expenditures not only to the municipalities which are most exposed to flood risk but to all municipalities within the catchment area. The assumption, that upstream adaptation activities have a positive influence on mitigating damage repair costs was confirmed by the regression models for most catchments and cost groups. The examination of results from two future climate scenario projects indicate an increase of extreme precipitation event frequency and magnitude in the future in the observed study area. This lets expect a future increase of adaptation costs as well as damage repair costs because of climate change.

2.5

Conclusions to be drawn from project results

The focus on Upper Austria is particularly interesting for two reasons: on the one hand, two extreme flood events took place within the period 2002-2013, which allows a comparison of the effects of different phases of flood risk management on municipality budgets. On the other hand, in the aftermath of the first 100-year flood event in 2002, flood protection associations were re-established or realigned in the affected catchment areas. The allocation of the key areas of flood risk management to budget items of the municipal budget shows that measures for response, aftercare and prevention are included in many municipal budget sections, which is typical for climate change adaptation as a cross-section matter. Adaptation, or flood risk management in this specific case, is not a separate measure, but is integrated into the usual tasks and activities of the departments concerned. The costs of flood risk management for municipalities are thus overspending, for example, for the maintenance and servicing of roads or rescue and fire services. Delineation of flood risk management expenditure Page 24 / 39

ACRP â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Calls for Proposals This delineation is generally difficult, especially where investment are concerned. Investments are made in the study area via flood protection associations and their costs are reflected in the annual municipality budgets. Investments are also supported by state and federal subsidies (disaster fund), and municipal associations or municipalities bear the costs according to the interest contributions. Also, in flood years, other investment projects are not carried out and possibly postponed to subsequent years, to be able to handle the consequences of flood events budgetarily. All these budgetary practices will be sustained over the years so that there will be no massive increase in total spending in flood years. Impact of upstream measures on local flood protection. These analyses show that upstream and, to a lesser extent, downstream adaptation measures in the Aist, Krems and VĂśckla catchments during the period 2003-2012 had a positive impact on local damage reduction in the severe flood event in 2013. Respondents in the three case studies come to a similar conclusion: respondents rated the adaptation measures in the higher-level catchment areas, which were managed sustainably and cofinanced by the flood protection associations, as very effective. It was found that without the measures taken, the budgetary expenditure of the low-lying municipalities for relief and rehabilitation would have been significantly higher. Serious mismatches could not be proven in the study area. Consequences of the supra-regional impact of flood events Flood protection measures are mostly supra-regional projects, requiring coordination between the municipalities. The flood protection associations have been proven to be very useful - not only in the joint planning of preventive adaptation measures, expenditure distribution, but also in the coordination of protective measures when events occur. Upper Austria plays a pioneering role in flood protection associations in Austria, and the experience gained there can serve as a model for other federal states in Austria. Flood protection associations facilitate reconciliation between different municipalities in a river basin and enable multi-municipality planning and prioritization of flood prevention measures and their joint financing. Examples of measures include the creation and maintenance of retention areas that protect several municipalities downstream, but also the information of citizens. In most cases, flood events were the trigger for the formation or reorientation of flood protection associations. Since previously unaffected municipalities have little incentive to actively engage in flood risk management (e.g. by applying for funding to the Disaster Relief Fund) or join a flood organization, a binding regulation would be helpful. Differences between flood protection associations exist e.g. in terms of the contribution structure. All of the flood protection associations surveyed collect annual membership fees, but differences exist in cost distribution keys and in the question of whether investment contributions are also financed through membership fees or through ad hoc funding. For a quick estimation, it makes sense that financial contributions are regulated in advance and it must not come to ad-hoc decisions on the cost allocation in the occurrence of an event. Page 25 / 39

ACRP – Calls for Proposals Following recommendations have been carried out for the practice: Monitoring •

The event-related monitoring of the effectiveness of the individual structural measures, as implemented for the flood event 2013 by the BMNT, should also be extended to nonstructural measures (early warning systems, etc.). Institutionally, this task could be located at the WLV, supported by the relevant state departments.

•

The European Commission has set the goal of contributing 20 % of the Structural and Innovation Fund expenditures to Climate Action by 2020. Clear targets and simple, but traceable, spending tracking can support the implementation of climate change adaptation. Such targets are also available, for example, in the disaster relief fund. It would be desirable for flood risk management to be a simple one, not only in the strict sense of the word but also in the other budgetary positions concerned (roads, water and sanitation, emergency aid, waste, public transport, construction and public utilities, other infrastructures and public services) However, in the medium term, there should also be clear targets for adaptation-relevant expenditures.

•

Flood protection associations Flood protection associations have so far emerged on a voluntary basis and the sharing of costs was a matter of negotiation. Especially with nationwide effects, it would be advantageous if such associations would be mandatory. A commitment to multimunicipality flood risk management, implemented through municipality associations, should be enshrined in law to spread adjustment costs and risk of damage and to avoid mismanagement. This is particularly important for municipalities that do not have repetitive flood experiences but are still exposed to flood risks. Especially small municipalities are simply overwhelmed in the event management, especially for these should be associations of municipalities continue to act as a mediator and coordinator in adaptation implementation and civil protection.

•

Clarification of responsibilities and further risk diversification Responsibility for planning, construction, maintenance of flood control measures and liability for damage prevention is not always clear. This would have to be better regulated by the legislature. While flood protection associations are a form of risk diversification, insuring public buildings is another tool. It should be examined whether existing insurance products are sufficient or new products are required. It is proposed here to improve the dialogue between the insurance industry and, for example, the municipality and city union.

Page 26 / 39

ACRP – Calls for Proposals 2.6

Work and time schedule

The Gantt chart below show two colours: the blue bars describe the work carried out based on the original concept. The orange bars depict the extensions due to additional data acquisition from flood protection associations and due to additional case studies to overcome the unexpected data situation which provide less sufficient results from the statistical analyses. (See: difficulties encountered) The work was carried out as follows. 

WP1: In the quarters Q1 to Q3, the research of the conditions in the study region, the acquisition and analysis of spatial data, precipitation and hydrology data in the finally selected three river basins was carried out. In Q1 to Q3, municipality budget data were extracted and expenditures for adaptation measures were grouped and analyzed. It turned out that not every municipality cares for full adaptation costs, as this is substituted by flood protection associations which organise cost sharing between the municipalities of a catchment. In Q4 to Q6, the relevant expenditures were additionally obtained and the budget data compilation was completed in Q6.



WP2: In Q2 to Q5, the spatial relationships were analyzed and the question of how the measures of upstream-downstream municipalities shall be quantified to be integrated in regression analyses. First regression analyzes were performed in Q3 to Q5. These were then continued in Q6 to Q7 with completed budget data.



WP3 was adapted: In Q3 to Q4, the budget analysis was started and finally completed till Q7. The organization and function of flood management and the role of flood protection associations was explored through desk research in Q5 and Q7. The effects of adaptation measures of the upstream and downstream municipalities on damage repair costs were interpreted in detail by means of the regression analyzes results (in Q3 to Q5, then again in Q6 and Q7with revised data). To get a more complete picture, apart from the statistical analyzes, case studies were conducted in Q5 to Q8 in three municipalities which provide qualitative information on flood protection associations through interviews.



WP4: In quarters Q5 to Q7, lessons learned from the statistical analyzes, as well as the three case studies on the effectiveness of adaptation measures (by municipalities and flood protection associations), to reduce damage repair costs were developed. In quarters Q6 to Q7, the impact of future climate events on budgets was assessed qualitatively, using regional climate model analyzes for the occurrence of extreme events. In Q7 and Q8, the conclusions were drawn and all results documented in reports.



WP 5 was deleted during the evaluation and was therefore not carried out.

Page 27 / 39

ACRP – Calls for Proposals Q1

WP1 Data extraction, information compilation spatial framework conditions, climate and hydology data Budget data, compilation of expenditure groups WP2 Exploration of spatial relations: conditions & cost impact Analysis of spatial criteria, relations Regression model, residual analysis WP3 Analysis of budget implications of recent flood events Understanding the flood management system (new) Budgetanalysis, regression model examination Case studies: actors, costs upstream/downstream adaptation WP4 Synthesis and Conclusions Expenditures and adaptation measures Impact of future climate extreme events Summary and conclusions

Figure 9 GANTT-chart of the project

2.7

Annex

Publications The bibliography, the list of photographs/diagrams and the list of tables are to be included in the Annex, if relevant to the project.

2.8

References

BGBl. Nr. 46/2016 Katastrophenfondsgesetz 1996; § 3 Abs. 1 BMF (2012), Der Katastrophenfonds in Österreich. Bundesministerium für Finanzen. Wien. BMF (2016), Katastrophenfondsgesetz 1996. 11. Bericht des Bundesministers für Finanzen. Bundesministerium für Finanzen. Wien. BMF (2017), Zahlungsströme zwischen den Gebietskörperschaften Übersicht gemäß § 42 Abs. 4 Z 3 BHG 2013. Jänner 2017. Bundesministerium für Finanzen. Wien. BMLFUW, Abt. V/4 Wasserhaushalt (Hydrographisches Zentralbüro) BMNT (2018) Hochwasserschutz Aist-Dämme. Brückner, H; Haindl, A.; Mitterer, K. (2017): Aufgabenfinanzierung und Transferbeziehungen im tertiären Finanzausgleich. In Bauer, H.; Biwald, B.; Mitterer, K.; Thöni, E. (Hrsg.): Finanzausgleich 2017. Ein Handbuch – mit Kommentar zum FAG 2017, Wien Graz, S. 141174. Bundesministerium für Land- und Forstwirtschaft, Umwelt und Wasserwirtschaft (Lebensministerium) Hochwasserschutz in Österreich (Broschüre), Wien 2006, S. 10. EC (2016), Overview of all treated EU Solidarity Fund Cases since 2002. European Commission. Brüssel.

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ACRP – Calls for Proposals Flasche, K. (2016) Zuständigkeiten beim Hochwasserschutz - Wer macht was? Kommunale Umwelt-Aktion Hannover http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/de/funding/solidarity-fund http://maps.naturgefahren.at/Naturgefahren?g_card=gewaesser# http://www.anschober.at/presse/artikel/bilanz-13-jahre-nach-dem-jahrhunderthochwasser2002 http://www.bmub.bund.de/themen/wasser-abfallboden/binnengewaesser/hochwasservorsorge-und-risikomanagement/ http://www.hws-aist.at/media/dokumente/121203_GutachtenHabersack.pdf http://www.hws-aist.at/media/dokumente/BerichteRegionMitte.pdf http://www.hws-aist.at/media/dokumente/BerichteRegionNord.pdf http://www.hws-aist.at/media/dokumente/BerichteRegionSd.pdf http://www.hws-aist.at/media/teaser/KarteDammstandorte.JPG http://www.kr-water.com/kr-water/kr-water/Integrierter_Hochwasserschutz.html https://wasser.umweltbundesamt.at/hwkarten/RMP_PDF_Verrechtlicht/AT4035_RMP_2015. pdf https://wvponline.de/fileadmin/user_upload/pdf/HWS/161202_P_HWS_Schladen_Zustaendigkeiten_Fla sche.pdf https://www.bmnt.gv.at/wasser/schutz_vor_naturgefahren/hochwasserschutz_aktuell/hwsAistdamm.html https://www.bmnt.gv.at/wasser/schutz_vor_naturgefahren/hws_2013.html) https://www.bmnt.gv.at/wasser/schutz_vor_naturgefahren/hws_2013.html https://www.bmnt.gv.at/wasser/schutz_vor_naturgefahren/strategie_hws.html https://www.tips.at/news/nussbach/land-leute/412039-baubeginn-fuer-das-kostspieligerueckhaltebecken-in-krems-au Hummer, W. (2013), Krisenmanagement und Katastrophenschutz in Österreich und in der EU (Teil 1). Kommentar vom 18.06.2013. EU-Infothek. Europas Online-Nachrichtenmagazin. http://www.eu-infothek.com/article/krisenmanagement-und-katastrophenschutz-oesterreichund-der-eu-teil-1. Download am 28.09.2017. Hydrographisches Zentralbüro, 2000 bis 2013 sowie 2016 Jachs, S. (2011), Einführung in das Katastrophenmanagement. Hamburg: tredition. Katastrophenfondsgesetz 1996 idF BGBl 46/2016. Page 29 / 39

ACRP – Calls for Proposals Land Oberösterreich (201): Rechnungsabschluss des Landes Oberösterreich für das Verwaltungsjahr 2016. https://www.land-oberoesterreich.gv.at/12162.htm Download am 16.1.2018. Land Oberösterreich (2012) Pressekonferenz-Information: Bilanz - 13 Jahre nach dem Jahrhunderthochwasser 2002: Das größte Schutzprogramm der Landesgeschichte, was fehlt noch, wieviel wurde investiert & wie viele Jobs sind dadurch entstanden?" http://www.anschober.at/uploads/media/150812_pk_bilanz_howa_12jahre_programm_job_st udie.docx Land Oberösterreich (2015): Richtlinien zur Gewährung von Mitteln des Katastrophenfonds an Gemeinden zur Behebung von Katastrophenschäden, 2015. Nordbeck, R. (2014), Klimawandel und vorsorgender Hochwasserschutz in Österreich. Eine entwicklungsdynamische Analyse der Anpassungskapazitäten (2002-2012). Diskussionspapier 2-2014. Institut für Wald-, Umwelt- und Ressourcenpolitik. Universität für Bodenkultur. Wien. Oberösterreichischer Landesrechnungshof (2014): Hochwasserschutz Machland Nord. Initiativprüfung 9/2014. Linz. Oberösterreichischer Landesrechnungshof Initiativprüfung 8/2015. Linz.

(2015):

Gewässerbezirke

des

Landes.

OTS (2004), „Onodi: Rund 4,4 Mio. Euro für Hochwasserschäden gehen 2004 an NÖ Gemeinden. Zweckzuschuss des Bundes von der NÖ Landesregierung genehmigt“. OTS0015, 3. Jan. 2004, 11:45. https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20040103_OTS0015/onodi-rund-44-mio-eurofuer-hochwasserschaeden-gehen-2004-an-noe-gemeinden

Puchinger, F. (2003) Die Regionalstudie Aist - ein Instrument zur Umsetzung nachhaltiger Schutzkonzepte. Wildbachund Lawinenverbauung. Linz. www.hwsaist.at/media/dokumente/Regionalstudie.pdf Rechnungshof (2008): Schutz vor Naturgefahren; Verwendung der Mittel aus dem Katastrophenfonds. Wirkungsbereich des Landes Burgenland. 3/2008. Sattler, St., Wind, H., Fuchs, H., Habersack, H., Hochwasser 2002 − Datenbasis der Schadensbilanz 2002, StartClim 9, Forschungsbericht im Rahmen des Projektes "Analyse der Hochwasserereignisse vom August 2002 − Flood Risk", Bundesministerium für Landund Forstwirtschaft, Umwelt und Wasserwirtschaft, Wien, 2003. Schneider, F., Goers, S., Steinmüller, H., Zauner A. (2012), Wertschöpfungs-und Beschäftigungseffekte des oberösterreichischen Bauprogramms zum Hochwasserschutz. Energieinstitut der JKU Linz. Page 30 / 39

ACRP â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Calls for Proposals http://www.anschober.at/uploads/media/150812_Energieinstitut_an_der_JKU_Linz__Hochwasserschutz.pdf Seher, W. (2008) Oberlieger-Unterlieger: Auf der Suche nach Kooperationsformen und Ausgleichsmechanismen. Ă&#x2013;ROK Workshop Raumordnung und Naturgefahren IV. Wien http://www.oerok.gv.at/fileadmin/Bilder/2.ReiterRaum_u._Region/3.Themen_und_Forschungsbereiche/7.RO_u._Naturgefahren/Workshop_I V/SEHER_Oberlieger_Unterlieger.pdf Sinabell, F. et ll. (2016) Naturgefahren und die Belastung von Landeshaushalten, WIFO., Wien. http://www.wifo.ac.at/wwa/pubid/58785 Statistik Austria (2001-2014): Gemeindefinanzgebarung 2001 bis 2014. Wien.

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ACRP – Calls for Proposals List of Figures Figure 1 depicts two exemplary maps of these indicators for the Aist catchment ............................... 10 Figure 2 Daily mean values of the discharge levels at Schwertberg, Kremsdorf and Vöcklabruck, each in the lower river basin areas of the Aist, Krems and Vöckla between 1.1.2000 and 31.12.2013.......................................................................................................................................................... 11 Figure 3 Tasks of the municipalities for the three phases of flood management ................................. 12 Figure 4 Areas of the municipality budget with financial implications of flood events, Source: KDZ 15 Figure 5 Municipal spending in flood-related tasks in large river basins ................................................ 16 Figure 6 Residuals of the regression models to explain damage costs ................................................... 20 Figure 7 Annual sums of extreme precipitation events (> 95% percentile) 1970-2010, projection 2011 - 2100 ........................................................................................................................................................ 22 Figure 8 Annual number of days with extreme precipitation (> 20mm / d) left: 1970-2010, right: 2021-2050........................................................................................................................................................... 23 Figure 9 GANTT-chart of the project .............................................................................................................. 28

List of Tables Table 1 Adaptation costs, damage repair costs for the three measure groups: flood control, roads, emergency aid .................................................................................................................................................... 17 Table 2 Regression coefficients of the adaptation effort costs to explain the claims management costs 2013-2014 and the change in the claims management costs 2013-2014 compared to 20022003 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 19

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ACRP – Calls for Proposals

3 3.1

Presentation of Costs Table of costs for the entire project duration

The following table provides an aggregated overview of the costs incurred by the applicant and the project partners throughout the entire project duration, broken down by staff costs, capital expenditure, travel expenses, administrative and material expenses, and third-party costs.

Cost category

Staff costs

Eligible total costs according to contract

Cumulative Applicant costs during the Costs incurred project term during the project Total costs for the consortium*

term 04/2016 – 04/2018

Partner 1

Partner 2

Costs incurred during the project term

04/2016 – 04/2018

209,829

215,544.46

113,790.28

75,571

26,183.18

Travel expenses

6,750

1,722.27

206.03

207

1,309.24

Administrative and material expenses

3,421

12.15

220,000.00

217,278.46

114,008

75,778

27,492

Capital expenditure

Third-party costs Total

* Sum total of costs incurred / cost category of the applicant and all partners

3.2

Statement of costs for the entire project duration

The costs incurred in the outstanding reporting period and over the entire duration of the project must be stated for each partner and/or each set of activities according to the cost schedule specified in the contract and the underlying application. A AIT In AIT the team does not change, except Paul Kinner who has left the company, so his work was distributed to others in the team. AIT had some shifts in workload distribution between the team members from junior scientist / scientist / research engineer to senior scientist and experienced scientist as described below. The project extension and the inclusion of further qualitative - methods because of low data quality and availability requires additional resources which were covered by in-kind financing. Page 33 / 39

ACRP – Calls for Proposals Travel costs were used for field explorations and interviews in upper Austria (case studies, further interviews with province administration).

P1 KDZ: There was a change in the project team compared to the originally cost plan. Instead of the employee Clemens Hödl, the project was carried out by the employee Anita Haindl (both Junior Scientist). For Karoline Mitterer (Senior Scientist), the hourly rate had to be adjusted to the originally cost plan. Anita Haindl left KDZ by end of 2017 and was therefore not able to contribute to WP 4. Due to changes in the methodology, the overall effort increased (especially the case studies) compared to the originally cost plan. Travel costs were used for appointments to Upper Austria for purposes of interviews (case studies). P2 WEGC: As foreseen in the revised cost plan, Gabriel Bachner (PostDoc) worked in WP0, WP1 and in WP4. Gabriel Bachner is paid according to Universitäten-Kollektivvertrag for PostDoc researchers (entry level). Moreover, Hannah Hennighausen was employed PhD student with less than 3 years of experience according to FWF rates. She worked in WP3 and WP4. Travel costs were used for project team meetings in Vienna in which either Birgit BednarFriedl or Gabriel Bachner participated (dates: April 27, 2016; August 24, 2016; May 24, 2017; June 28, 2017). Moreover, travel costs emerged for presentation of the project at the Klimatag in Vienna (May 22-24, 2017) which was also used for a project meeting. Finally, project results were presented by Gabriel Bachner at the 3rd European Climate Change Adaptation Conference “Our Climate Ready Future”, in Glasgow, June 5-9, 2017.

3.3 

Cost reclassification

Presentation and motivation of cost reclassifications, if any (between partners and/or cost categories), during the duration of the project.

Applicant AIT The staff remains the same although some changes of work hour contributions was necessary due to occupation in different projects and because changes in the project requirements. Sustainable Cities team: Wolfgang Loibl who is project leader took over a considerable part of the workload from other team members (Catrin Haider, Iglar Branislaw) which were

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ACRP â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Calls for Proposals occupied by other projects. The resources booking does not reflect all efforts as the project extension requires additional resources which were covered by in-kind financing. Environmental Resources and Technologies team: Paul Kinner was not involved as he has finally left AIT. Martin Jung contributed less because of other duties. The workload of both was taken over by Gerhard Heiss who was already part of the team. P1 KDZ Due to adaptations in methodology due to the low data availability, part of WP1 and WP 2 were moved to WP3. This reduced the effort in WP1 and WP 2. On the other hand, the effort in WP3 increased due to the complementary analysis of the basics for flood management as well as through case studies. In addition, there were minor shifts in the effort between the employees. A change of focus between employees became necessary due to the methodology adjustments. The departure of Anita Haindl at the end of 2017 led to shifts, in particular to Karoline Mitterer. P2 WEGC: Since Gabriel Bachner was heavily involved in a H2020 project in 2017, he was partly replaced by Hannah Hennighausen in WP3 and WP4. She is a third year PhD student in economics working on flood protection in municipalities and was therefore highly qualified to contribute to CAD-MUCI. Her CV was enclosed as attachment to the interim report.

Please note the following: for the purposes of final reporting, copies of invoices (e.g. for capital expenditure, travel expenses, etc.) as well as detailed information on staff costs must be annexed to the cost accounting form. The ACRP Program Management reserves the right to perform random checks of the invoices submitted within the framework of the examination of the reports.

3.4 Annex Added at the end.

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ACRP – Calls for Proposals

Utilization (max. 5 pages)

Please describe the publication and dissemination activities carried out during the project term (project workshops, publications and presentations at external events).

Focus was on publications, presentations and discussion formats addressed to practitioners and policy makers at municipality level. As the available data were less convincing, the planned methodology has to be adapted gaining more qualitative and less quantitative information which requires a change in the dissemination plans. For the case studies individual reports have been conducted and distributed to the municipalities and water protection communities. Publications: 

Bednar-Friedl, F., Leitner, M., Loibl, W. (2017) Anpassung an den Klimawandel – eine neue Aufgabe für Städte und Gemeinden, Österr. Gemeindezeitung, 11/2017, pp 39-42



Loibl, W. Haider, C., Köstl, M., Iglar B., Heiss G., Mitterer, K., Hochholdinger, N., Haindl, A., Bednar- Friedl, F., Bachner, G., (2017) Public Adaptation Costs – Investigating the National Adaptation (CAD_MUCI) Österreichischer Klimatag 2017. 22.-24 Mai 2017, Univ. Wien, Proceedings p. 64



Loibl, W., Mitterer, K., Bednar-Friedl, B., Bachner, G., Iglár, B., Haider, C., Haindl, H., Heiss, G., Hennighausen, H., Hochholdinger, N., Köstl, M. (2018) CAD-MUCI - Auswirkungen von Hochwasserereignissen auf Gemeindebudgets - Anpassungsmaßnahmen und finanzielle Auswirkungen am Beispiel oberösterreichischer Regionen. März 2018 – revidierte Version 24.4.2018, Wien, AIT Austrian Institute of Technology. 145 pp.



Loibl, W., Mitterer, K., Bednar-Friedl, B., Bachner, G., Iglár, B., Haider, C., Haindl, H., Heiss, G., Hennighausen, H., Hochholdinger, N., Köstl, M. (2018) CAD-MUCI - Climate Change Effects – Adaptation and Municipal Cost Implications. Publizierbarer Endbericht, Wien, Klimafonds



Mitterer, K., Loibl, W., Bednar-Friedl, B., Bachner, G., Iglár, B., Haider, C., Haindl, H., Heiss, G., Hennighausen, H., Hochholdinger, N., Köstl, M. (2018) Hochwassermanagement in Gemeinden. In: Forum new public management (http://kdz.eu/de/content/forum-publicmanagement-ausgabe-12018)



Mitterer, K., Loibl, W., Haindl, A., Köstl, M., Heiss, G. (2018) Fallstudie Ansfelden im Einzugsgebiet der Krems, KDZ, AIT, Wien. 20 p.



Mitterer, K., Loibl, W., Haindl, A., Köstl, M., Heiss, G. (2018) Fallstudie Schwertberg im Einzugsgebiet der Aist. KDZ, AIT, Wien. 21 p.



Mitterer, K., Loibl, W., Haindl, A., Köstl, M., Heiss, G. (2018) Fallstudie Vöcklabruck im Einzugsgebiet der Vöckla. KDZ, AIT, Wien. 16 p.

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ACRP – Calls for Proposals 

Züger J. (2017) Convection Resolving Regional Urban Climate Modeling. Proceedings, The Cities and Climate Conference 2017, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 19-21 September 2017, Potsdam (under review)

Conference presentations



Bachner, G. (2017) Revealing the Economy-Wide Effects of Climate Change Adaptation – A Macroeconomic Assessment of Adaptation Funding for the Case of Austria. European Climate Change Adaptation Conference (ECCA 2017), Glasgow, June 5-9, 2017.



Bednar-Friedl, B. (2017), Kosten von Klimawandelanpassung für die öffentliche Hand, Conference of the Committee of Financial Officers of the Austrian Association of Cities, June 6, 2017 (invited talk).



Local dissemination activities:



Discussion in Ansfelden with representatives of the municipality (21.10.2016)



Discussion in Schwertberg with representatives of the municipality (21.10.2016)



Discussion in Steyr with representatives of the municipality (21.10.2016)



Discussion in Gutau with representatives of the municipality (11.10.2017)



Discussion in St. Marien with representatives of the municipality (11.10.2017)



Discussion in Vöcklabruck with representatives of the municipality (11.10.2017)

Further publication activities (carried out, in progress):



Züger J. (2018) Convection Resolving Regional Urban Climate Modeling. Proceedings, The Cities and Climate Conference 2017, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 19-21 September 2017, Potsdam, under review.



Loibl et al. (2018) Adaptation to climate change - decision support through climate services at different scales. ENVIROINFO 2018, September 5-7, 2018, Munich, in preparation



Loibl et al. (2018) Geospatial assessment of flood protection measures through statistical analysis of municipality budget data (Journal of Spatial Science), in preparation.

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ACRP – Calls for Proposals

Outlook (max. 1 page)

Please draft recommendations for follow-up research and development activities. 

In general, research has so far been insufficiently concerned with the cost and costeffectiveness of different flood risk management measures. The approach chosen in this study is based on the top-down approach developed in the predecessor project PACINAS, in which budget data are analyzed and concrete flood risk management expenditure is identified by assigning tasks of flood risk management to budget positions. The further analysis in CAD-MUCI finally included only those costs that have an explicit reference to flood protection.

•

This statistical analysis of the impact of measures from three catchment areas gives initial promising results. The above-mentioned upstream-downstream effects or general municipality-wide flood protection measures for entire river basins should be analyzed for additional catchments and flood events, to be able to verify the findings.

•

Further research on regional and local climate modeling, in particular to reduce uncertainties with regard to extreme precipitation events is an important point: To be able to make more reliable statements about the probability of occurrence of heavy rainfall events and, as a consequence, flood events, the aspect of the projection of extreme events through climate simulations and the uncertainty bandwidths must be given more importance.

•

Research into the effectiveness of flood protection focuses above all on structural measures (flood protection structures, retention basins, mobile flood protection). The effectiveness of "soft" measures (early warning systems, informing citizens, etc.) and intensified green measures (restoration, retention area maintenance, unsealing) has so far been insufficiently researched.

•

Another key issue is that of criteria for a good mix of prevention, relief and aftercare. While there is extensive conceptual literature on the subject, there are no concrete criteria to identify, evaluate, and revise such a mix. Concepts such as Robust Decision Making and Adaptation Phasing provide a promising direction on how research could support implementation.

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ACRP â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Calls for Proposals

Signature

I herewith confirm that the report in its entirety has been accepted by the project partners.

Wien, 6.7.2018 Place, date

___________________________________ Signature of the applicant (coordinator)

Please note: the signature has to be scanned in and inserted into the document.

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