TLA Feature Articles and Case Notes
Autonomous and Electric Cars and Trucks: Did They Survive COVID-19? Arthur D. Spratlin Jr.*
2020 had more than its share of disasters and distractions. The COVID-19 pandemic, working from home, floods, hurricanes, and the election took up much of our capacity to think about anything else. So, what happened in the ongoing development of autonomous and electric vehicles (“AVs/EVs”) while we weren’t looking?
Where Are We? Where Are We Headed? Level 5 full autonomy is where we are trying to go. That is the goal of most everyone in the business. We will talk more about that below, but if you have ever read an article or heard a presentation on this topic before, you know where it starts—safety. If you’re afraid of robot cars, you should be terrified of human drivers. In the U.S. alone, there are about 6 million crashes, 2.5 million injuries, and 37,000 deaths per year.1 That is about 100 deaths per day coming from the automotive space, with an estimated 94% caused by human error. So, the goal is “to get the humans out from behind the wheel of the car.” Ironically, while Americans drove some 13% fewer miles during 2020 due to lockdowns and working from home, the pandemic created some bad driving behavior, including excessive speeding and drug and alcohol use. Early estimates for 2020 show an 8% increase in fatalities, with about 42,060 * Butler Snow LLP (Ridgeland, MS)
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deaths on our roadways.2 Until we get to Level 5, the industry will continue to roll out new safety features, such as automatic emergency braking, front-collision warnings, lanekeeping assist, adaptive cruise control, and blind-spot detection, commonly referred to as advanced driver-assistance system (“ADAS”) technology. You will hear new terms in the next few years, such as CASE mobility (connected, autonomous, shared, and electric). That is the direction we are headed with cars and trucks as we enter the “autonomapocalypse.” This life-changing description of the future of mobility encompasses not only the AVs/EVs that are forthcoming, but also the change in human behavior that will occur along with their arrival. Autonomy is freedom, the age of the passenger is now, and the age of the driver is over—as reflected in the current statistics showing young people not getting (or in no hurry to get) their driver’s licenses.3 Sixteen-year-olds are not eager to get their licenses like they used to be because they don’t want to be the ones stuck driving; they want to be free to use their cell phones to text or monitor social media. If you remain skeptical, “follow the money.” The recent mergers and partnerships in this industry have been simply astounding. Collaboration between companies that were once bitter rivals is now commonplace. Recently, Amazon bought Zoox, a California-based “ride-hailing” business, for a reported $1.2 billion.4 Amazon has also invested in Rivian (electric pickup trucks and SUVs) and Aurora, another selfdriving technology company.5 GM is trying to catch up in the EV race, investing in self-driving startup Cruise and reintroducing an all-electric Hummer for 2022. Ford
introduced an all-electric F-150 “Lightning” for 2022, which will include “bi-directional” charging, so that your home can charge your pickup or your pickup can supply electricity your home. The long-awaited Rivian electric pickup started deliveries to customers in September 2021. Lucid, TuSimple, Lyft, Uber, Nikola, Lordstown, Li Auto, Nio, XPeng, and Fisker recently went public, so there is an incredible amount of money changing hands in the AV/EV industry. Case in point: Tesla’s market capitalization was recently worth more than the nine largest car companies combined, even though it only accounts for about 1% of global vehicle sales.6
Electric Cars Electrification and autonomy are two different technologies. Some companies are focusing on one or the other, while others are focusing on both. But both technologies are headed along the same trajectory and will impact mobility in the next three to five years and beyond. China is the world leader in EVs, but Europe hit a milestone last year when 500,000 EVs were sold in the first half of 2020—thereby surpassing China.7 There are two primary forces moving these numbers overseas: financial incentives (tax credits) and the deadlines set by many European countries over the next decade for when they plan to go electric (zero-emission) and eliminate fossil fuels. On August 5, 2021, President Biden signed an Executive Order setting a new national target to make half of all new vehicles sold in 2030 zero-emissions vehicles. President Biden has made boosting EVs a top priority and has pledged to support a massive build-out of EV charging stations. It is also likely that he will support new tax credits and other incentives for
Transportation Lawyers Association • Canadian Transport Lawyers Association • October 2021, Vol. 23, No. 2
