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ISSUE 7.01 January 2010
Fewer brokers to take bigger slice Predictions: Channel size by end of 2010 AFG
Broker numbers to fall but channel growth is forecast
The next 12 months and beyond should be a bumper period for those brokers who remain in the industry, according to Australian Broker’s exclusive aggregator poll. Nine executives from large, mid-size and boutique aggregators were asked to predict channel growth and the impact of licensing on broker numbers in 2010 and the overwhelming consensus was that by year end, significantly fewer
Aggregator poll: Part two Read AB 7.02 for aggregators’ assessment of where securitisation and diversification is heading this year
brokers would be part of a bigger distribution channel (above 40%). Channel size was forecast to be between 39% and 50% by end 2010 compared to Fujitsu Consulting estimates, which put broker originations at around 38% of all outstanding mortgages last year. National Mortgage Brokers (nMB) managing director Gerald Foley was the most optimistic about channel growth, forecasting market share of between 45% and 50%. Foley said the role and value of mortgage brokers had increased in recent times while the image of the banks – particularly the majors – has diminished through “perceived opportunistic pricing, poor service and low community regard”. Foley added that while banks could offer the best pricing on products, brokers were “best placed to provide borrowers with the best acquisition experience”.
40%
Ballast Finance
39% – 40%
National Mortgage Brokers
45% – 50%
Connective
40%
Loankit
45%
Loan Market
43%
PLAN
45%
Choice
42%
Club Financial
40%
Loankit’s Kym Rampal also forecast a 45% share for brokers as did PLAN Australia CEO Ray Hair. Rampal said recent adjustments had left borrowers confused about “which product and lender offers the best alternative, particularly when looking for a mix of products”. “Brokers will also be able to take advantage of the re-emerging mortgage managers, which now offer well priced and flexible products as alternatives to the major lenders,” he said. Hair said the increase would be driven by an improved wholesale funding market contributing to competition and increased choice of lenders. “In addition; while banks continue to shoot to themselves in the foot in a PR sense, consumers will continue to turn to and value the advice of brokers.” Page 28 cont.
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The forecast is definitely cloudy Many in the industry predict the RBA will raise the cash rate throughout 2010, but there is disagreement on how much it will increase by Page 11
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Benchmarking Given last year’s credit crisis, the Canadian broker market has been shaken up in ways similar to our own. But the road to recovery may be a different story Page 24
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