Online Trading

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Revolution in global finance Online trading enables millions of retail investors all over the world to trade shares in their local or global stock exchange at a fraction of the cost Matein Khalid

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he spectacular growth of online trading coincided with the technology/internet stock bubble in the late 1990s and spawned a revolution in Wall Street and even global business culture. Online trading platforms enables untold millions of retail investors all over the world to trade shares in their local or global stock exchange at a fraction of the cost charged by traditional offline brokers. Research once limited to only institutional investors and high net worth private client is available online to the clients of a new generation of electronic intermediaries in the financial markets in real time. Access, instantaneous execution, the availability of research and technical charts, access to global markets and, above all, empowerment to trade and invest on a scale unthinkable before the advent of the Internet.

AOL and Compuserve created the world’s first retail online trading products. Pershing Corp, now a unit of the Bank of New York, created the world’s first PC based electronic share trading high speed clearing systems in the early 1980s. While Black Monday in October 1987, the savings/loans and Latin American debt crises and Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait created hyper-volatile, bear markets, the birth of the Internet era (the IPO of Netscape on August 9, 1995) led to an exponential rise in online share trading.

Brands such as E-trade, TD Ameritrade and Datek entered the constellation of regulated Wall Street financial brokers.

Charles Schwab, America’s largest discount stockbroker with a national network of branch offices, was not slow to embrace the online trading revolution.

Ameritrade emerged as a serial acquirer of online brokerages in North America.

The first online brokers emerged in India, the UAE and across Asia. A milestone in the industry was when Charles Schwab opened its one-millionth online account in 1997.

A price war among the world’s leading online brokers was inevitable, led by Scottrade’s offer to trade New York Stock Exchange or NASDAQ shares at $7 per share. This was inevitable since the world’s number of registered online brokers soared more than tenfold in the last decade of the twentieth century on the eve of the epic Silicon Valley tech bubble bust.

Retail investors and online trading played a major role in the parabolic rise of global stock indices in the late 1990s, as volumes rose exponentially in stock exchanges as varied as the Mumbai Stock Exchange, Hong Kong, Dubai’s DFM and Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul. Online trading had created nothing less than a new paradigm shift in the global financial markets.

This was because electronic platforms converted an expensive, restricted information, broker driven stock brokerage model into an open access, consumer

driven, online trading and risk management on a planetary scale. The macroeconomic impact of the online trading revolution was significant. Transaction costs plummeted. The number of new clients rose. New platforms emerged all over the world. Cross-border flows surged and global financial integration deepened.

Above all, online trading led to a quantum increase in investment knowledge by millions of retail investors all over the world who had never before accessed Wall Street. Online trading’s next frontier is mobile apps, the cloud and vast global, cross-market trading platforms such as Interactive Brokers. Apart from shares and bonds, online brokers now enable retail investors to buy and sell offshore mutual funds, ETF’s, futures and options, currencies and even precious metals.

Even Bloomberg, the financial media colossus has developed its own electronic trading product trade book.

Online trading technologies have a seismic impact on the $4 trillion daily turnover in the highly liquid, hyper-kinetic global foreign exchange market. The emergence of online trading platforms has enabled individual investors all over the world to access tight two-way pricing and real time market intelligence once only available to sophisticated inter bank traders or corporate treasurers in the world’s financial hubs. As foreign ex-

change volumes surge, online has helped make this the world’s largest, liquid asset class and a financial market that most closely resembles the classic economic model of perfect competition.

While the origins of foreign exchange trading go back to Renaissance Florence (the Medici banking empire created Europe’s first interbank currency market via its nostro accounting and its ability to leverage financial intelligence from its cross-border network for profit) and Rembrandt’s Amsterdam. Yet the advent of communications technology and the broadband Internet has revolutionised the 500-year-old global currency market, a market that trades continually from sunrise in Singapore to sunset in Manhattan, — in fact, sunset in San Francisco.

Online currency trading now encompasses spot, forward, futures, swaps, exotic, cross and non deliverable forward (NDF) products for currencies subject to capital controls/restrictions such as the Indian rupee, Chinese yuan and Thai baht. Online trading has been as significant a phenomenon in the history of global currencies as the collapse of Bretton Woods, the invention of the currency futures contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the Reuters 3000 Interbank Dealing System.

As dollar interest rate has plunged due to Federal Reserve money printing, UAE investors earn negative inflation adjusted returns on their cash/bank deposits.

Moreover, Dubai has emerged as the Gulf’s preeminent financial hub, attracted a new breed of entrepreneurs and global investors to its shares. It is thus imperative for online brokers in the UAE to evolve beyond the pure execution or day trading model, to offer clients more intellectual products in the area of portfolio strategy, asset allocation and risk management.

Moreover, online brokers have huge opportunities in niche areas such as Gulf equities, Islamic finance, Middle East bonds/sukuk and securitised property products. Investor education, global access, transparent and competitive pricing, product innovation and regulatory compliance are mission critical to build successful online trading brands in the UAE.

The ‘science’ that is economics Paul Samuelson’s words couldn’t ring truer in the present economic scenario Gaurav Kashyap Paul Samuelson once said that economics has never been a science and it is even less now than a few years ago. With global central banks engaging in aggressive monetary policy, the EU prepping for the next great Greek tragedy, growth forecasts slowing amidst the emerging economies and with the US sequester in full effect, Paul Samuelson’s words couldn’t ring any truer these days. Despite the buffet of deteriorating economic conditions globally, equity markets continue to march to their all time highs.

Go eat your heart out Samuelson.

The most recent US jobs report, which forms the backbone of the US recovery, came in at an anaemic 88K new jobs added in March — less than half of the lowest estimate on Wall Street, and the weakest gain in nine months. Despite confirming the obvious effects of a sequestration hangover, March’s jobs report also boosted prospects that the Federal Reserve would be forced to continue its unprecedented $85 billion-a-month easing measures. And with it, further underpinning the entrenched bearish sentiment for the US Dollar, along with contributing to the next big equity bubble in stocks.

Keeping this in mind, what does this entail for the Indian rupee? USDINR has been trading in a range between 53.60 and 55.15 over the past few months and will continue to con• Turn to next page

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ONLine Trading

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Alpari ME

Adding more value Providing a suitable environment for clients to make informed investment decisions ‘Education is the cornerstone of success in online trading’ As one of the most transparent and trusted online trading brokers operating regionally, Alpari ME DMCC has emerged as one of the fastest growing providers of online foreign exchange (Forex, FX), commodities and contracts for difference (CFDs) trading services for private and institutional clients.

Founded in 1998 in Moscow, Alpari soon penetrated the UK and US markets and made its foray into the Middle East at Dubai in 2008. Currently, the Alpari group of companies serves its global cli-

ents from offices in over 20 countries.

“In each region that we enter, we regulate ourselves with the local exchanges,” says Iskandar Najjar, CEO, Alpari ME. “In Dubai, we are a full broker on the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange (DGCX). This has allowed our clients to broaden their reach into the global foreign exchange and commodities markets. Any Alpari client has access to a host of services including futures and options in the US, spot transactions in the UK, Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) in India and DGCX in the UAE.” Last year, Alpari launched the live MetaTrader 5 (MT5) — the most advanced futures trading platform available — and is the only broker that offers MT5 to DGCX. “In the FX industry, every millisecond counts as it is imperative to take advantage of sudden market moves,” says Najjar. “For traders, therefore, the MT5 offers the most advanced technology in a very user-friendly plat-

form to trade as quickly and as effectively as possible. It gives them access to the complete DGCX product bouquet from anywhere — be it in the car or at home or while travelling.”

Although clients can access a great range of currencies and commodities, the Indian market has become extremely important, points out Gaurav Kashyap, Head of DGCX desk, Alpari ME. “The Indian Rupee Futures Contract, for instance, launched four years ago, achieved total volumes of over 100,000 contracts in a single day for the first time in April 2013 valued at a record-breaking $3.5 billion.”

Unlike other online trading brokers, Alpari differentiates itself by adding as much value as possible to enable its clients to make informed investment decisions, says Kashyap, “The key to education is experience. In the Forex industry, there is always an opportunity to capitalise on the market volatility and currency fluctuations. Clients can make profits

Iskandar Najjar

Gaurav Kashyap

both in times of rising and falling prices but it is very important to be aware of the risks as well as rewards of investing in such markets.”

At Alpari, the global strategic goal is to first educate and then offer a platform, he adds. “Our demo accounts enable clients to trade virtually against a real market backdrop. We also conduct regular seminars while the Alpari Academy offers comprehensive introductory education via video

tutorials and webinars.”

“Our global brand philosophy is to provide an optimal customer experience for our clients, and accordingly, we also conduct face-to-face interaction with our clients at seminars in small groups of 10 to 15 every week at our offices in UAE and KSA. These complimentary training sessions are open to anyone wishing to make informed decisions before entering the forex, futures and options markets,” he adds.

easy-forex

MIG Bank

Trading with a personal dealer

Sharing strategies Speaker set to share long-term tactics for future investment opportunities

Presenting research and analyses in an accessible way that is both informative and educational is among easy-forex’s specialties Nicolas Shamtanis, Dealing Room Manager, easy-forex, shares his views in an interview with Khaleej Times. Excerpts: You’ve been with easy-forex for six years now, and leading the dealing room for the past three.

What’s it been like?

It’s been incredible. It’s very humbling to work with such a dynamic team and great clients.

Our dealing room clients are our more experienced traders and I think they value the easy-forex approach.

What is that approach?

It sounds simple but in practice I don’t know how many companies manage to get it right. It is a truly ”trader-centric approach”. Everything we do is focused on the trader. Every trader has their own account service manager, and premium traders get a personal market analyst who they can contact at any time to bounce off their ideas and discuss the market or their trading strategies. Our personal market analysts make an extra effort to understand their clients’ needs, giving them all the time and help they want, and as a result we have built some very strong relationships.

Our research and analyses are also strongly focused on the trader. We try to present it in a very accessible way so that it is not only informative but also educational. As well as providing research from leading international agencies like Trading Central and MNI, we produce our own Daily Outlooks. Education and training have always been an important part of easy-forex’s offering because we firmly believe that knowledge is the key to successful trading.

What platform do you like to trade best?

Well, easy-forex has a number of

trading platforms. I think my personal favourite is the mobile platform because of its straightforward interface and I can trade wherever I am. I think it was Da Vinci who said simplicity is the greatest sophistication. We first began with what is still our most popular platform, the web trading platform. It has sophisticated tools and unique features and ongoing innovations and developments that make it one of the most sophisticated online-based platforms on the market. Realtime rates, one-click trading, freeze rate and the Inside Viewer™ are just a few of these features. It’s fully transposable with our mobile platform and our downloadable platform, TradeDesk™. This means, for example, that you can open a deal with the web trading platform and then close the same deal in TradeDesk™. We also offer easyforex’s MT4 platform, which has some unique features, including fixed spreads, all expert advisors and low latency.

What is the best part of your job?

The best part of the job is undoubtedly the pleasure when I see my clients win. We build a partnership — although I obviously cannot tell a trader what to trade, I can discuss the market and various trading scenarios with them and we both feel rewarded when the trade is successful. The mood can get incredibly exciting in the dealing room, especially when the market is volatile!

The other part of the job I love is when I get the chance to give educational seminars to traders.

I travel to the Middle East and China regularly and give seminars to our clients here.

We believe easy-forex won the award for “Best dealing room”

Nicolas Shamtanis at the 2012 MENA Forex Expo.

Yes, that was a huge achievement and we were thrilled to get it. We have worked hard to create a dealing room that is really different, really trader-friendly and I’d like to think the award confirmed our efforts.

Stepping back a bit, tell us about easy-forex. It seems you were one of the first online trading companies, yet you have managed to keep your offering fresh and innovative. easy-forex really brought forex trading to the individual trader back in 2003 when the internet trading started to take off. Ten

Risk warning Forex, commodities, options and CFDs (OTC Trading) are leveraged products that carry a substantial risk of loss up to your invested capital and may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure that you understand fully the risks involved and do not invest money you cannot afford to lose. The information provided is for informative purposes only, and can under no circumstances be considered as a recommendation to engage in any trade.

years later, we now service clients in 160 countries around the world. We are regulated in Europe and Australia and are committed to transparency and client fund security.

Our philosophy has always been to keep it simple, accessible and transparent for the trader, and we have kept a market lead through this philosophy. The other key of course is to have industry-leading technology and we have managed to develop some superb proprietary systems and tools.

Along the way we have added new forex instruments to our product palette. In 2009 we started gold and silver trading and in 2010 our energy/oil commodities. Last year we added stock indices and I’m really excited about our latest offering — options trading.

Is options trading taking off worldwide? Tell us more.

Yes, easy-forex has just opened up the beta version of its new online options platform to the world. The platform takes options trading to a new level of easiness and accessibility. It allows traders to hedge open positions of any forex trade with any broker. Option trading also allows traders to profit simply by predicting volatility rather than the direction of a move.

With no minimum deposit the easy-forex options platform is a first for the industry.

MIG Bank, the largest Swiss bank specialised in online Forex trading, delivers investment strategy in Dubai. MIG Bank’s Chief Investment Officer Dieter Merz will speak at the MENA 11th Forex Show in Dubai, April 25 and 26.

Hisham Mansour, CEO of MIG Bank, explained, “We are excited about participating in the MENA 11th Forex Show 2013 where every year we meet with our esteemed clients and partners.”

Dieter Merz, MIG Bank’s Chief Investment Officer will host a conference at the event on trends affecting investors. With more Dieter Merz than 26 years of experience in asset management and On his scheduled private banking, Merz is presentation on April considered an expert in his field. He and his team de- 25 at the MENA 11th Forex liver exclusive trading in- Managed Fund Expo and sight and advice, so that clients can trade confident- Conference, held in Jumeirah Beach Hotel, Merz will discuss ly every day.

“MIG Bank’s Investment global economic trends and its and Research team proimpact on the investment and vides a mix of multi-asset management, as well as an Forex markets uncommon type of longshort strategies, managed in a disciplined manner and based upon rigorous analysis. We are driven to deliver absolute returns regardless of benchmarks. We are constantly looking for new investment opportunities for our clients. This approach, combined with the safety and security of a Swiss-regulated bank (by FINMA, the Swiss regulatory authorities) and supported by our transparent fee structure creates a rare haven for invested capital,” said Merz.

When asked about the current global deflationary trends, he replied, “These will ultimately strengthen the US dollar and further weaken gold. In effect, global growth and inflation appear to be cooling again. Thus the Federal Reserve can continue purchasing assets to the tune of $85 billion a month. The Bank of Japan is now emulating the Federal Reserve, or actually, doing much more.

“Indeed, in an indebted world, deflation is the biggest enemy because it increases debt’s real value. As such, central banks are probably right to go the extra mile in fighting the dangerous deflationdebt cycle. Only the European Central Bank is reluctant. It has, however, an additional problem: the Eurozone is financially fragmented. In countries such as Italy and Spain, interest rates remain prohibitively high for small and medium enterprises. The European Central Bank will be forced to do more, i.e. further reduce rates and take unconventional measures to ensure lower effective rates in its periphery. Since only the US is being able to reduce its total debt stock, it will be the first one to exit massive liquidity injection. As a result, the US dollar is poised to strengthen over the next years, while gold will remain weak in a world where inflation is no longer the major scare.”

On his scheduled presentation on April 25 at the MENA 11th Forex Managed Fund Expo and Conference, held in Jumeirah Beach Hotel, Merz will discuss global economic trends and its impact on the investment and Forex markets. MIG Bank’s Middle East Regional team will be present throughout the duration of the event to meet with clients, partners and prospects.

The ‘science’ that is economics • Continued From previous page

solidate in this range. However, nagged by slowing growth (Indian GDP was at 4.5 per cent during Q4 of 2012, its lowest in 15 quarters), decreasing price pressures (March’s WPI inflation reading came in at 6 per cent, well below February’s 6.8 per cent) and falling commodity prices, the Indian Central Bank has room to manoeuvre rates and we wouldn’t be surprised to see a cut in the repo rate during their next policy meeting in May. This could see the USD-INR re-test that

54.90 level before moving back to 53 levels on those weakening prospects for the greenback.

And finally, gold has shown some signs of consolidation with resistance coming in at 1,438 levels. Gold bulls may not yet be out of the woods and the yellow metal would need to close out April above 1,400 levels to maintain any further upward momentum.

As for justifying the economic fundamentals behind gold’s vicious sell-off from two weeks ago — beats Samuelson, but economics has never been a science.

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ADS Securities

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication The securities firm has gone an extra mile to offer its clients simple and easy to understand research reports with a sophisticated trading platform Suneeti Ahuja-Kohli ADS Securities took a plunge in the Middle Eastern market two years ago to provide an integrated platform for trade in equities, foreign exchange, commodities and bullion — filling a much needed gap. The securities firm backed sophisticated technology with strong research and trader-centric tools and services, attracting Middle Eastern and global investors. Today the firm facilitates trading volumes of over $5 billion a day in foreign exchange, a no mean feat considering slim volumes in the Middle East trading markets. Its servers in New York, Tokyo, London and other key strategic markets offer low latency network and fast trading to institutional clients such as tier II banks, hedge funds, algorithm traders and asset managers through OREX platform as well as private clients through its PRIME platform. Khaleej Times caught up with the Chief Market Strategist, Max Knudsen, and Raif Hawwas, Head of Professional Sales, to understand the tricks of the trade. Excerpts: What products do you offer for private clients?

Raif: We offer an electronic platform, ADS, which is an execution vehicle for certain instruments like foreign exchange and CFDs (contract for differences) that mirror the underlying instruments in the exchanges.

We also offer over-the-phone options, but this is a more sophisticated product that is used for hedging.

Tell us about the research support that ADS Securities provide.

Max: I’ve years of experience in providing research to hedge funds and traders — I have even advised the European Central Bank. Here, I have put my efforts into specialising and making research as simple, clear and easy to use as possible, so private (retail) customers can also use it.

I think we have succeeded and have a product that is very easy to use. My research is actually bringing the distinction between the professional and non-professionals down to nothing. Institutional clients can call me here as well as retail clients. Sometimes people are surprised to hear me taking their queries or questions on research. They don’t expect someone who has written the report to talk. We are quite open here and as long as I have time, I’m very happy to talk to people.

There has been massive liquidation in gold holdings by institutional investors.

People are now questioning on why do they need gold. Last year, the only people who bought the yellow metal were from the jewellery industry We, from the research side, are specialising in a niche market. We focus on transaction research — it is a research that someone can read quickly and then go news — to hedge, trade, manage risks, etc. that is our niche from research perspective, very niche, but really easy to use.

After a decade long bull run, gold suddenly witnessed a remarkable slump. What is driving the change?

Max: Most of the time what drives the markets is the sentiment and not the news. In the last 12 years gold has risen exponentially, way above its fundamental values because of the sentiment. With the benefit of hindsight, we can say that people got carried away. In the last year and a half, we reached a point when gold stopped responding to this over enthusiasm.

Gold was primarily used as a hedge against inflation. But the quantitative easing by central banks has thrown something new into the mix. There is so much money in the financial system that there hasn’t been any inflation and therefore obliterating the need to invest in gold. The hedge fund

Max Knudsen community, on the other hand, has been looking at the equity markets as it is out performing and doing better than gold.

As a result, professional community has started lightening up.

Over this year, there has been massive liquidation in terms of holdings by gold funds and money is flowing from gold to US equities.

There is growing question on people’s mind on why do they need gold. Last year, the only people who bought gold was the jewellery industry.

Price of crude oil, too, is following a downward curve. What is your outlook and understanding of the trend?

Max: I think OPEC is the wild card.

You have got stocks, inventories are at 22-year highs, and global demand is slowing. The IMF has suggested a downward revision for global growth in 2013.

Even though China is expecting better growth later on this year, right now it is hard to see where the demand is going to come from.

Oil is not free falling, but given the way sentiments overshoot it is going down at a fast pace. So, I would think that over the next few weeks, at least, this bearish sentiment would carry on and drag the prices a few dollars down. But I’ll be on the lookout for the wild card from OPEC. You are certainly not going to get new growth from anywhere, no new demand, so I think people

Raif Hawwas will carry on selling oil, and the risk is OPEC might come up and say we are going to cut supply.

I would take each week as it comes, but largely it is going to stay below $100 for now. I will not put a long-term position on oil because it would change.

In the foreign exchange market, dollar-yen relation has piqued the interest of investors a lot.

Your observation…

Max: If you look at the history of dollar-yen since the 1980s, there is a very close co-relation with bull-and-bear swings in dollar-yen sentiments and the 20-month moving average. There have been 12 bull-and-bear swings in the dollar-yen trade since the 1980s.

Of these, 11 bull-and-bear swings have co-related with the 20-month moving average. What that means is every time the dollar-yen moves above or below its 20-month moving average, historically speaking, there will be a big move up or down. The most recent one was in September 2007, when dollar-yen broke below 117.5. I had predicted a new bear trend and eventually the market went down for five years. It went down from 117.50 to 75 and never broke above that average. The situation changed in November last year when dollaryen moved back above its moving average, which stood at 82. Since the dollar-yen has broken the moving average again in November,

my calculations suggest it will be a big bull trend from here.

How far can it go?

Max: We have looked at all the breaks since 1980. The average length of the break is 4.5 years, so when it moves through the trend, it carries on the average for four years. The average percentage change has been a 15 per cent in currency movement and the maximum has been a 44 per cent. Going with the co-relation and the empirical evidence from last 25 to 30 years, we forecast an upward trend. We have already clocked 20 per cent and the biggest upswing historically has been 44 per cent.

So if I assume that this one is the biggest that we have seen 1980s, the change uptick could be 44 per cent, which will be 118. So, the target for dollar-yen based on nothing but historical evidence is 118.

The good thing about these trends is that it moves quicker than people expect. Almost 90 per cent of the time, prices are not at fair value. They are either high up or down.

What are the most favoured asset classes?

Max: Currency-wise, it is Euro and then gold probably.

Tell us about the research that you offer?

Max: We are confident our research will differentiate us in the

KT photos by Nezar Balout region. We’ve been working on a new website that will make trading and research on foreign exchange extremely easy — Vision FX. It can’t get any easier than this.

I specialise in multiple horizons and forecast sentiment for the day, week and the next three months.

Reports on six currencies are sent every day and are updated during the day. There is also a weekly report on gold.

All my research is based around a structured discipline. There are two reasons why people lose money: One of lack of structure and lack of discipline. My research is built over a skeleton of a structured approach of looking at the sentiment everyday and the disciplined approach on how to exploit that sentiment everyday. Since we are not allowed here to make trading recommendations, through my research I make forecasts that are inherently structured and have an implied discipline.

There are points as well, where, if my forecasts are proven wrong, clients are advised not to go ahead on that forecast. As the forecasts get better or worse during the day or week, I update it.

Raif: Through our research reports, we cater to all types of traders — the daily one, weekly ones and the monthly ones. It is a perfect tool to use and forecast what is on the market. It is up-to-date. Our clients get one report in the morning

giving a sense of the market sentiments, followed by notifications during the day as to when to book loss or profit. Exit and entry are crucial elements of trading and we extend full support to our clients.

How strong is the client support team?

Raif: We offer full service to clients. The research is backed with support from our team. We have the tools and the platform to implement where clients can follow pivotal information such as stop loss, targets and suggestions for profit taking. Clients can place orders in advance with us, so when the markets reach these targets, or prices, it will trigger automatically.

Clients can also call in at the sales trading desk — the dedicated desk to services clients in any trade execution over the phone. It is not just the research, but all the services built around the platform that makes us stand out.

We also run training courses for clients to educate them in terms of technical analysis, new products and services, how to read and understand research reports, etc.

Besides this we also host a majlis, which is a convenient seating in our office dedicated to our customers. Our clients can come with their friends and discuss trading.

We have also installed a screen in the majlis where clients trade. It is a unique concept in the region.

— suneeti@khaleejtimes.com

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