MAKING SENSE OF OUR TIMES: Tracking the Economic and Demographic Changes Through 28 Years of Houston Surveys STEPHEN L. KLINEBERG The Latest Findings from the Houston Area Survey July 2009
HOUSTON, FROM 1900 TO 1982
This city was essentially a “one-horse” industrial town, focused on refining hydrocarbons into gasoline and petrochemicals and servicing the oil and gas industry (Thomas and Murray 1991).
Houston was the energy capital of the world, the “Golden Buckle of the Sun Belt,” the bastion of laissez-faire capitalism. Houstonians proclaimed themselves to be the epitome of what Americans can achieve when left unfettered by zoning, excessive taxation, or government regulations (Kaplan 1983).
“The ideological thrust in Houston has been anti-government, anti-regulation, anti-planning, anti-taxes, anti-anything that seemed to represent, in fact or fantasy, an expansion of the public sector or a limitation on the economic prerogatives and activities of the city’s business community” (Fisher 1990).
THE HOUSTON AREA SURVEY (1982-2009)
Supported by local foundations, corporations, and individuals, the annual surveys have interviewed 28 scientifically selected successive representative samples of Harris County residents.
In May 1982, just two months after the first Houston Area Survey was completed, the 80-year oil boom suddenly collapsed.
The region recovered from the deep and prolonged recession of the mid 1980s to find itself squarely in the midst of . . . • •
a restructured economy and a demographic revolution.
These are the same transformations that have refashioned American society itself in the past quarter-century. For 28 years, the Houston surveys have tracked area residents’ changing perspectives on these remarkable trends.
FIGURE 1: POSITIVE RATINGS OF JOB OPPORTUNITIES IN THE HOUSTON AREA (1982-2009) 90 85
Percent rating job opportunities in the Houston area as either "excellent" or "good."
80 76 75
73 72
Percent of Respondents
70 67
65
67
60 57
60 55 52
47
50
46
52
45
45
53 49
50
48 38
40
41
40
41
35 30
27
39
40
O3
O4
31 29
25
27
20 18
15 10 11
5 0 82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
Year of Survey
98
99
OO
O1
O2
O5
O6
O7
O8
O9
FIGURE 2: NEGATIVE RATINGS OF JOB OPPORTUNITIES IN RELATION TO THE OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES (1982-2009) 105
11
100
10.5 10.1
95
Percent rating "job opportunities" in the Houston area as only "fair" or "poor," in comparison with the official unemployment rates in Harris County.
9.8
90
9.6
87
85
9.5 80
80
9
75
70 71
70
60
8.5
65 8.3
65
65
7.8
8
58
7.8
56
58
54
56
56
7.5
55
(Negative ratings of job opportunities)
49
50
50
52
52
45
7.1
7.0
7 42
6.3
36
6.4
35
6.0
38
6.3
6.0
5.9
5.7 5.6
25 23
5.2
20
(Official Unemployment rates in Harris County)
5.2
4.7
10
5.5
23
25
6.5 6
30
30
5.9
30
15
46
6.8
43
42
6.7
40
48
5
4.8
4.5 4.4
4.5 4.3 4.1
5
4
4.1
0
3.5 82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
Year of Survey
97
98
99
OO
O1
O2
O3
O4
O5
O6
O7
O8
O9
Official Unemployment Rates
Percent Giving Negative Ratings
10
FIGURE 3: “WHAT IS THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IN THE HOUSTON AREA TODAY?” (1982-2009) 85 80 75
traffic
73
72
economy
70
65
crime
65 (Economy)
60
Percent of Respondents
60 55
60 59 54
(Crime)
51 48
50 49
43
45
41
40
(Traffic)
42
40
37
(Traffic)
37
35
39
35 30
44
45
34
34
31 26
26
28
25
33 31
24
27 23
20
22
20
19
15 13
10
20
21
8
10
8
6
3
0 83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
26 21
22
4
92
18
19
15
93
7
8
95
96
24 24
(Economy)
13
12
9
5
82
(Crime)
12 12
11
10
31
14
13
14
11
35
25
24 17
36
33
13
12 8
9
OO
O1
10
20 15
15
O8
O9
13
11
10
3
94
97
Year of Survey
98
99
O2
O3
O4
O5
O6
O7
FIGURE 4: EVIDENCE OF INCREASING HUNGER IN THE MIDST OF RECESSION (2002-2009) 120 110
"How serious a problem has it been for you personally in the past year to buy the groceries you need to feed your family?"
100 Not much of a problem
Percent of Respondents
90
A somewhat or very serious problem
80.7
80 73.3
70 60 50 40 (r=+.080, p.=.055)
30
24.6 19.0
20 10 0
2002
2009
Year of Survey
FIGURE 5: HOUSTON AS A PLACE TO LIVE, COMPARED WITH OTHER CITIES (2005-2009) 70 65
Much worse
Slightly better
Slightly worse
Much better
60 53.2
Percent of Respondents
55
51.8
50 44.3
(r=+.154, p.=.000)
45
41.4
40 35 31.3 30 25.2 25 20 13.2
15 10 5
9.1
7.9 2.5
2.4
1.3
0
2005
2007 "Compared to most other metropolitan areas in the country, would you say that the Houston area is a much better place, a slightly better place, a slightly worse place, or a much worse place in which to live?"
2009
THE RESTRUCTURED ECONOMY
The “resource economy” of the industrial era, for which this city was so favorably positioned, has been replaced by a new high-tech, knowledge-based, fully worldwide marketplace.
The traditional “blue collar path” to financial security has now largely disappeared. Almost all the good-paying jobs today require high levels of technical skills and educational credentials.
In 2008, 74% of the survey respondents disagreed that, “A high school education is enough to get a good job.” In the 2007 survey, 61% agreed that, “There are very few good jobs in today’s economy for people without a college education.”
In this increasingly unequal, hourglass economy, “What you earn,” as the saying goes, “depends on what you’ve learned.”
FIGURE 6: TWO CONTRASTING QUARTERCENTURIES SINCE WORLD WAR II 160
Percent Increase in Before-Tax Incomes
150
Bottom 20%
Second 20%
Middle 20%
Fourth 20%
Top 20%
Top 5%
140 130 120
116 111
114
110 100 100 90
99 86
80 68
70 60 46
50 40 30
22
20 9
10
13
4
0 The Postwar Quarter-Century (1949-1979)
The Millennial Quarter-Century (1979-2003)
Percent Increases in Before-Tax Household Incomes Source: U.S. Census; Robert H. Frank. 2007. Falling Behind. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, pp. 10-11.
SOME PROVOCATIVE QUOTATIONS “Gone forever are the days when a high school graduate could go to work on an assembly line and expect to earn a middle-class standard of living. Students who leave high school today without skills and unprepared for further learning are unlikely to ever earn enough to raise a family. They are being sentenced to a lifetime of poverty. A generation’s future is at stake” (Tony Wagner, Making the Grade, 2002).
“No country in the world, without undergoing military defeat or internal revolution, has ever experienced such a sharp redistribution of earnings as the U.S. has seen in the last generation” (Lester Thurow, MIT School of Management, 1995). “We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few. We cannot have both” (Louis D. Brandeis, Supreme Court Justice).
FIGURE 7: CONCERNS ABOUT UNFAIRNESS AND SUPPORT FOR PUBLIC PROGRAMS (1996-2009) 115 110
In favor of: Federal health insurance to cover the medical expenses of all Americans.
105
A "very serious problem" for U.S. if gap between rich and poor gets significantly bigger.
100 95
Problems in America today are result of economic pressures, not decline in moral values.
90
Government is not trying to do too much; should do more to solve the country's problems.
85
Percent of Respondents
80
76
75
71
(Federal health insurance.)
71
69
70 65
74
(r=+.075, p.=.000)
50
(r=+.103, p.=.000)
67
67 63
(r=+.122, p.=.000)
61
(Due to circumstances.)
(Rich-poor gap "very serious.") 52
47 52
45
(r=+.132, p.=.000)
(Govt. should do more.)
40
43
35 30
67
70
60
60 55
73 68
(r=+.143, p.=.000)
(Economic pressures.)
36
30
30
25
26
20 15 10 5 0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Year of Survey
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
THE NEW IMPORTANCE OF “QUALITYOF-PLACE” CONSIDERATIONS Houston's prospects will now increasingly depend on the city’s ability to attract and retain the nation’s most skilled and creative “knowledge workers” and high tech companies. This will require continued significant improvements in . . . • the region’s mobility and transportation systems • the revitalization and preservation of its urban centers • the excellence of its venues for sports, arts, and culture • the enhancement of its green spaces, trees, and bayous • the richness of its hiking, boating, and birding areas • the healthfulness of its air and water quality • Its overall physical attractiveness and aesthetic appeal The public’s support for new initiatives along these lines has remained firm or grown stronger across the years of surveys.
FIGURE 8: CONCERNS ABOUT AIR POLLUTION IN THE HOUSTON AREA (1995-2009) 95 90
Rating the control of air and water pollution in the Houston area as "poor."
85
"Very concerned" about the effects of air pollution on the family's health.
80
We are spending "too little" on improving and protecting the environment.
Percent of Respondents
75
Over the past 3 years, Houston's air pollution has been "getting worse."
70 (Spending "too little" on environmental protection.) 53
60 55 50
46
60
61
47
(r=+.076, p.=.000) 53
56 ("Very concerned" about health effects.)
45
55 52
(Pollution worsening.)
30
(r=+.033, p.=.030)
51
(r=-.054, p.=.002)
45
49
44
44 45
44 30
63
59
50
46
40 35
65
63
65
43 39
(r=-.076, p.=.005)
36
30 (Rating pollution controls as "poor.")
25
29
20 15 10 5 0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Year of Survey
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
FIGURE 9: ASSESSMENTS OF TRAFFIC IN THE HOUSTON AREA AND OF THREE POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS (2005-2009) 90 85
"Ov e r the past thre e ye ars, has traffic in the Houston are a ge ne rally gotte n be tte r, gotte n worse , or has it staye d about the same ?"
80 75 70
67
"Which of the se proposals would be the be st long-te rm solution to the traffic proble ms in the Houston are a?"
66
Percent of Respondents
65 60
60 55
2005
2007
2009
50
50 45 40
40
(r=+.078, p.=.001)
42
(r=+.079, p.=.001)
35 30
30
27
25
22
23
25
24
26
26 20
20 15
15 9
10
10
5 0
Worse
Same
Be tte r
Highways
Urbanism
Transit
FIGURE 10: THE IMPORTANCE OF A MUCH IMPROVED MASS TRANSIT SYSTEM AND OF INCLUDING A RAIL COMPONENT (1991-2008) 70
Percent Saying, "Very Important"
65
63
62
60
55
57
The development of a much improved mass transit system is "very important" for Houston's future.
58
52
50 47
49
45 45
46 45
[ If "somewhat" or "very important": ] It is "very important" for that transit system to have a rail component.
40
35 34 32
30
25
20
1991
1993
2003
2004
Year of Survey
2006
2008
FIGURE 11: ATTITUDES TOWARD POPULATION GROWTH AND URBAN PLANNING (2007-2009) 100 95 Favor.
90
Redevelop older areas.
85 80
Favor.
82.8
82.7
Better landuse planning.
76.1
75
69.8
Percent of Respondents
70 65 Worse
60 55
50.3
50 45 No effect
40 35
30.0
30
Build on edge of suburbs. No opinion
25 19.7
20
Free to build wherever. Oppose. 22.4
No opinion.
Oppose.
No opinion.
No opinion.
15.2
15 8.7
10
10.5 7.8
10.6 6.7
6.7
5 0 Will an additional million residents make living conditions better, worse, or have no clear effect? (2007)
Need better land-use planning Which is the best way for to guide growth; or leave Harris County to accommodate growth during people free to build wherever they want? (2007) the next 20 years? (2008)
Would you favor or oppose creating a General Plan to guide Houston's future growth? (2007)
Would you favor or oppose creating a General Plan to guide Houston's future growth? (2009)
FIGURE 12: HOW WORRIED ABOUT BECOMING THE VICTIM OF A CRIME? (1995-2009) 50
Not very worried/ Not worried at all
45
41
40
Percent of Respondents
Very worried
37
("very worried")
37 34
35 32
32
33 31
31
30
28
25
27
27
("Not very worried" or "Not worried at all")
(r=-.073, p.=.000)
27
27
28 25
23
20
23 21
"How worried are you personally that you or a member of your family will become the victim of a crime?"
20
15
10 1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Year of Survey
2006
2007
2008
2009
U.S. IMMIGRATION POLICY BEFORE AND AFTER THE REFORM ACT OF 1965
Between 1492 and 1965, 82 percent of all the people in the world who came to American shores came from Europe.
Under the notorious 1924 “National Origins Quota Act,” U.S. immigration was dramatically reduced, and newcomers were restricted almost entirely to the “Nordics” of Western Europe.
In 1965, the “Hart-Celler Act” for the first time accepted large numbers of non-Europeans, with preferences based primarily on family reunification, professional skills, or refugee status.
As a result, major new immigrant flows — non-European and of striking socioeconomic diversity — are rapidly transforming the composition of the Houston, and American, populations.
FIGURE 13: THE NUMBERS OF DOCUMENTED U.S. IMMIGRANTS, BY DECADE (1820-2000) 10.0 9.095 8.795
9.0
Numbers of Immigrants (In Millions)
8.0 7.338
7.0 6.0 5.736
5.247
5.0 4.493 4.107
4.0
3.322
3.688 2.812
3.0
2.598
2.0
1.713
2.515
2.315 1.035
1.0
0.599 0.143
0.528
0.0 1821- 1831- 1841- 1851- 1861- 1871- 1881- 1891- 1901- 1911- 1921- 1931- 1941- 1951- 1961- 1971- 1981- 19911830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Source: U.S. Census (www.census.gov).
THE DEMOGRAPHIC REVOLUTION
Along with the major immigration capitals of L.A. and N.Y.C., and closely following upon Miami, San Francisco, and Chicago, Houston is at the forefront of the new diversity that is refashioning the socio-political landscape of urban America.
Throughout all of its history . . .
•
this was essentially a bi-racial Southern city,
•
dominated and controlled, in an automatic, takenfor-granted way, by white men.
Today . . . •
Houston is one of the most culturally diverse metropolitan areas in the country, and
•
all of its ethnic communities are now “minorities.”
FIGURE 14: THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFORMATIONS OF HARRIS COUNTY (1960-2007) 4.5 Anglos
4.0
Blacks
Hispanics
Asians/Others
Population, in Millions
3.5
6.3%
3.0
32.9%
2.1% 22.7% 15.5%
2.0 0.8% 9.9%
1.5 0.3%
0.5
38.6%
4.1%
2.5
1.0
6.6%
19.1%
19.7%
18.2%
18.3%
20.1% 6.0% 19.8% 73.9%
54.0%
62.7%
69.2%
42.5%
36.5%
0.0
1960 (1,243,258)
1970 (1,741,912)
1980 (2,409,547)
1990 (2,818,199)
2000 (3,400,578)
2007, est.* (3,935,855)
Source: U.S. Census (www.census.gov); classifications based on Texas State Data Center conventions; total populations are given in parentheses; *from the 2007 Official Population Estimates.
FIGURE 15: THE DEMOGRAPHICS OF THE TEN COUNTIES IN HOUSTON’S METRO AREA (2006) 105 100
Anglos
95
Blacks
90
Hispanics Asians/Others
85
Source: U.S. Census (www.census.gov); classifications based on Texas State Data Center conventions; from the 2006 Population Estimates; total populations are given in parentheses.
79
80
76
Percent of Population
75
73
72
69
70 65
61
59
60 55
50
50 45 40
40
38
37
35 30 25 20
21
18
23 20
20 17
16
14
15 10
26
25
23
12
10 7 4
5
3
4
15
14 10
12
9
7
6 2
2
2
2
2
0 Harris Co. (3,886,207)
Fort Bend (493,187)
Montgomery (398,290)
Galveston (283,551)
Brazoria Co. (287,898)
Liberty Co. (75,685)
Waller Co. (35,185)
Chambers (28,779)
Austin Co. (26,407)
San Jacinto (24,760)
INTERACTIONS OF ETHNICITY AND AGE
The other demographic revolution: the remarkable “aging,” or “graying,” of the American population.
Today’s seniors are primarily Anglos, as are the 76 million Americans born between 1946 and 1964, now aged 45 to 63. In the next 30 years, the numbers over age 65 will double.
The younger cohorts, who will replace the “Baby Boomers,” are disproportionately non-Anglo and far less privileged.
The “aging of America” is thus a division not only by generation, but also by socioeconomic status and ethnic background.
Nowhere is this ongoing transformation more clearly seen than in the age distributions of the Harris County population.
FIGURE 16: THE PROPORTIONS IN FOUR AGE GROUPS WHO ARE ANGLO, BLACK, LATINO, AND ASIAN OR OTHER (2004-2009, COMBINED) 85 80
Anglos
Blacks
Hispanics
Asians/Others
75 70
68.5
65 59.6
Percent of Respondents
60 55 50
46.0 45
42.3
40 35
31.7
30 23.5 23.5
25 21.1 20 15
18.4
16.7
16.5 12.0
10 5.6 5
6.9 5.0
2.9
0
Ages 60-93 (N=701)
Ages 45-59 (N=990)
Ages 30-44 (N=826)
Ages 18-29 (N=620)
FIGURE 17: EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT IN FIVE HOUSTON COMMUNITIES (1994-2009) 70 65 60
"What is the highest grade of school or year of college that you've completed?"
Less than H.S.
H.S. diploma
College degree
Post-graduate
Some college
55
Percent of Respondents
50
48
45 40
36
35
35 30
30
32 32 29 27 25
25
25 18
20
18
18
17
15
5
16 14
11
10
16
14 10
7
8 6
5
3
0
Asian Immigrants US-born Anglos (N=1,098) (N=6,813)
US-born Blacks (N=6,638)
US-born Latinos (N=3,512)
Latino Immigrants (N=3,406)
FIGURE 18: EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT IN FIVE LATINO COMMUNITIES (1994-2009) 75 70
"What is the highest grade of school or year of college that you've completed?"
65
Less than H.S.
H.S. diploma
College degree
Post-graduate
Some college
60
Percent of Respondents
55
55 51
50 45 39
40 35
32
32 29
30
28
27 24
25
23
25
25
24
20 16
15
15
14
15
13
16
17
16
18
13 9
10 6
6
6
5
5 1
1
0
US-born Hispanics (N=3,512)
Immigrants from Mexico (N=1,983)
Immigrants from El Salvador (N=328)
Other Central America (N=226)
Cuba and South America (N=186)
Immigrants from elsewhere (N=72)
THE NEW IMMIGRATION: TWO VIEWS* The dominant pessimistic story: Immigration is increasing dramatically, and it is producing a rapidly growing population of unassimilable foreigners. English will soon lose its status as the nation’s language. Poverty will grow, placing ever greater pressure on America’s already-overburdened taxpayers. The country is being swamped by a rising tide it cannot absorb. A different story of the future: After accelerating in the 1990s, immigration has leveled off. The newcomers are moving out of poverty and assimilating at least as rapidly as the earlier immigrants from Europe. The baby boomers will soon retire, and today’s immigrants and their children will be the voters and citizens, the workers and taxpayers of America in the new century. *
From: Dowell Myers. 2007. Immigrants and Boomers: Forging a New Social Contract for the Future of America. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
FIGURE 19: MEASURES OF SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS AMONG LATINO IMMIGRANTS BY TIME IN U.S. AND BY GENERATION (1994-2009) 105 100
In U.S. 0-9 years (N=1,236)
In U.S. 10-19 years (N=1,184)
95
2nd generation (N=1,403)
3rd+ generation (N=2,118)
In U.S. 20+ years (N=973)
90 83
85
Percent of Respondents
80
77
75
71
69
70
73
71 71 68
65 59
60
55
54
55
52
50
49
48
50
45
43
45 39
38
40 35
34 29
30 25
37
34
24
26 24
22
20
25
25
17
15 10 5 0 Education beyond high school.
Household income greater than $35,000.
Uses a computer at work or home.
Has health insurance Lives in the suburbs, for self and family. outside the city.
Owns the place where lives.
Percent of Respondents
FIGURE 20: INDICATORS OF ASSIMILATION AMONG LATINO IMMIGRANTS BY TIME IN THE U.S. AND BY GENERATION (1994-2009) 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
In U.S. 1-9 years (N=1,236)
In U.S. 10-19 years (N=1,184)
2nd generation (N=1403
3rd+ generation (N=2,118)
In U.S. 20+ years (N=973)
94 88
86
84 79
78 72
70 67
67 63 59
59 53
53
50
48 45
44
40 35 30
29
26 17
34 31 26
18 15
The U.S. should admit Three closest friends A disapproved-of The interview was Respondent thinks of Preschoolers likely to in Houston are all more immigrants in have problems later if book should be kept self as primarily conducted in English, Hispanics. both parents work. out of public libraries. the next ten years Hispanic. rather than Spanish.
FIGURE 21: POSITIVE RATINGS OF “THE RELATIONS AMONG ETHNIC GROUPS” (1992-2009) 65
Percent rating "the relations among ethnic groups in the Houston area" as either "excellent" or "good."
60 55
56 52
51
Percent Giving Positive Ratings
50
50
50
48 49
45
41
26
29
25
25
40
35
39
33
23
20 20
15
32
36
31
28 24
23 20
19 16
36 34
30
29 24
38
38 35
25 23
45 41
42 40
32 30
30 26
44 46
35 30
48
47
44
42
40
10
49
48
15
Anglos
Blacks
Latinos
11
5 0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year of Survey
FIGURE 22: CHANGING ATTITUDES TOWARD HOUSTON’S ETHNIC DIVERSITY (1994–2009)
Percent of Respondents
95 90
The increasing ethnic diversity will eventually become a source of great strength for the city.
85
The increasing ethnic diversity, due to immigration, is a good thing (rather than a bad thing).
80
The increasing immigration mostly strengthens (rather than threatens) American culture.
75 69
70
69
67 65
63
65
66
60 55
54
61
64
64
60
59
62
57
57 55
50
52 49
45 44
40 39
35 30 25 20
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Year of Survey
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
FIGURE 23: THE OVERALL IMPACT OF THE KATRINA EVACUEES (2006-2009) 90 85 80
Good thing
75
Bad thing
70
Not clear/Can't say
69.9 64.8
Percent of Respondents
65 60
56.9
55 50
46.7
45 40
36.3
35 28.8
30 24.5
25 20
23.6
17.0 14.3
15 10.7 10
6.6
5 0
2006
2007
2008
2009
"On balance, would you say that the overall impact of the Katrina evacuees on Houston has been a good thing or a bad thng for the city, or has it had no clear effect?"
FIGURE 24: ATTITUDES TOWARD “ILLEGAL� IMMIGRANTS IN HOUSTON (2007-2009) 95 90
2007
2008
2009
85 80 75
(r=-.081, p.=.003)
70
Percent of Respondents
65
(r=-.063, p.=.005)
(r=+.105, p.=.000)
71.2
68.1
67.6 64.2
61.2
60
55.8
(r=+.042, n.s.)
56.0
55 50.3 50 43.9
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Agree: The children of illegal immigrants should have the right to attend the public schools.
Favor: Imposing fines, criminal charges against employers who hire illegal immigrants.
Favor: A law that would deny health and welfare services to illegal immigrants in Texas.
Favor: Granting illegal immigrants path to legal citizenship, if speak English and have no criminal record.
FIGURE 25: PERSPECTIVES ON ABORTION RIGHTS (FROM 1997 THROUGH 2009) 85
Believe that abortion is morally acceptable (or it depends).
80
Against: A law that would make it more difficult to obtain an abortion. 75
Agree: It should be legal for a woman to obtain an abortion for any reason.
Percent of Respondents
70 63
65 60
58
(r=-.048, p.=.004)
(Against making it more difficult.) 59
56
55
56
56 54 (Legal for any reason.)
54
50 50
45
56
58
(r=+.018, n.s.)
51
54
47 43
43
41
41
40
39
40
(r=+.088, n.s.)
(Morally acceptable.) 35 30
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Year of Survey
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
FIGURE 26: SINGLE ISSUE VOTING AMONG “PRO-CHOICE” AND “PRO-LIFE” RESPONDENTS Percent Who Would NOT Vote for that Candidate
100 95 90 85
"Suppose there w as a candidate running for the Legislature w hose view s you mostly agreed w ith, but w ho took a position on abortion rights that you disagreed w ith completely. Would you certainly not vote for that candidate, probably not, or could you still vote for that candidate?"
80 75 70
Percent saying they w ould certainly not or probably not vote for that candidate:
65
66
66
60 (Pro-life")
55 50
46
49
45 40
60
48 44
47
("Pro-choice") 40
35 30 25
32
"Pro-choice"
"Pro-life"
20
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
FIGURE 27: BELIEFS ABOUT HOMOSEXUALITY (FROM 1997 THROUGH 2009) 75 Homosexuality is morally acceptable (or it depends).
70
Have a close personal friend who is gay or lesbian. Homosexuality is something people cannot change.
65 61
Percent of Respondents
59 60 57 (Cannot change.) 55
56 (r=+.068, p.=.000)
54
50
(Close gay friend.)
52
50 (r=+.131, p.=.000) 45
47
(Morally acceptable.)
45
40
41
45
44
(r=+.050, p.=.001) 41
39 35
30
25
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Year of Survey
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
FIGURE 28: SUPPORT FOR GAY RIGHTS (FROM 1991 THROUGH 2009) 95
Favor: Allowing homosexuals to teach in the public schools Favor: Homosexuals being legally permitted to adopt children
85
Favor: Alowing gays and lesbians to serve openly in the military
Percent of Respondents
Agree: Homosexual marriages should have same legal rights as heterosexuals
75 66 65
64
60
59
(Gays teaching.)
56 (r=+.094, p.=.000)
55
(r=+.140, p.=.000) 52
(Gays in the military.)
48 45 (r=+.050, p.=.001)
43
41 37
38
37
36
(Gay marriages.)
35
34
32 30
29 (r=+.184, p.=.000)
25
43
41
37
27
26
(Gay adoptions.) 15
19
5
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year of Survey
FIGURE 29: INTERETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN BELIEFS ABOUT DISCRIMINATION (2006-2009) 90 85
Anglos (N=2,044)
Blacks (N=2,012)
Latinos (N=2,003)
80 75
70
Percent of Respondents
70 65
61
61
60
58
55
55 50
46
45 40 35
36 30
30
34
31
29
31
26 22
25 20
13
15 10 5 0 Blacks and other minorities have the same opportunities as whites in the U.S. today. (2006, 2008)
Blacks in U.S. still a long way from having the same chance in life that whites have. (2007, 2009)
If the Katrina victims had In general, the criminal In general, the criminal justice system in Houston is justice system in Houston is been white, the government biased against blacks. (2006) biased against Hispanics. would have responded more quickly. (2006) (2009)
FIGURE 30: INTERETHNIC ROMANTIC RELATIONSHIPS BY AGE, ANGLOS ONLY (HAS-2007) 95 90
86.2
85
"Have you ever been in a romantic relationship with someone who was not Anglo?" (Asked of the Anglo respondents only.)
80
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS
75
76.8
[No]
70 63.2
65 60
[Yes] 58.5
56.3
55
51.5
50 45 40
[No] 39.0
47.5 43.7
35
35.9
30 25 23.2
20
No
15
Yes
[Yes]
10
12.3
5 0
Ages 18-29
Ages 30-39
Ages 40-49
Ages 50-59
AGE AT LAST BIRTHDAY
Ages 60-69
Ages 70-93
FIGURE 31: CHANGING PERSPECTIVES ON THE AMERICAN FUTURE (1988-2009) 85 80
Better times
75 70
64 61
Percent of Respondents
60
(More difficult
61 59
55
53
53 51
61 58
54
53
51
48
48
47 44
48 45
45
44
40 35
61
59
59
57
55
45
68
67
65
50
More difficult times
46 43
45
39
39
42
41
32
37 35
30 30
34
34
35
(Better times)
31
30
25
26
20 15 10
"When you look ahead to the next few years, do you tend to believe the country is headed for better times or more difficult times?"
5 0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year of Survey
FIGURE 32: PARTY PREFERENCES AMONG HARRIS COUNTY RESIDENTS (1988-2009) 65
Declared or leaning Democrat
Declared or leaning Republican
60
Neither Party/Can't Say
55 50 48
Percent of Respondents
50 45
49
48
(Republicans) 44
47 44
42
45
41
42
43
43
41
40 40 40
39
40
41
39
42
(Democrats)
35 35
37
38
39
40
41
43 41
39
40
40
43
42
40
42
37 39
35 37
36 34
30
32
32
33
29 25
(Neither Party)
16 15 10 5
16 14 11
13
20 17
24
23
22
20
20 18
19 18
19
23
21 17 15
15 "Would you call yourself a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or something else?" [IF NEITHER MAJOR PARTY IS NAMED:] "Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?"
0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year of Survey
CONCLUSIONS: HOUSTON AND AMERICA FACE SOME FORMIDABLE CHALLENGES
This city and nation will need to nurture a far more educated workforce, and fashion policies that can reduce the growing inequalities and prevent the rise of a new urban underclass.
To attract the most innovative companies and talented individuals, Houston will need to grow into a more environmentally appealing urban destination, and develop the research centers that will fuel the critical drivers of the new economy.
If the region is to flourish in the 21st century, it will need to develop into a much more unified and inclusive multiethnic society, one in which equality of opportunity is truly made available to all citizens and all of its communities are invited to participate as full partners in shaping the Houston future.
CONTACT INFORMATION The “Urban Research Center of Houston� at Rice University [Tag line: Turning Research into Reality.] Professor Stephen L. Klineberg, Director 713-348-3484 or slk@rice.edu Contact Rice University (at: corrul@rice.edu; or call 713-348-4225) for copies of the following publications: * the report on 24 years of Houston surveys (Public Perceptions in Remarkable Times, 2005) * the report on surveys in the six major sectors of the greater Houston area (Regional Perspectives, 2007) For further information, please visit the Center Web sites, at: www.houstonareasurvey.org or www.urc.rice.edu