Kinder Houston Area Survey 2015 Presentation

THE 34TH ANNUAL KINDER HOUSTON AREA SURVEY Perspectives on a City in Transition Dr. Stephen Klineberg

Kinder Houston Area Survey Luncheon April 30, 2015

THE 34TH KINDER HOUSTON AREA SURVEY (2015) Systematic interviews conducted with representative samples of

Economic Outlooks

the residents from Harris, Fort Bend and Montgomery counties,

Interethnic Relations

focused on four central topics: County Differences Social Agenda

2

POSITIVE RATINGS OF JOB OPPORTUNITIES IN THE HOUSTON AREA (1982-2015) 100

Percent rating job opportunities as “excellent” or “good”

90

PERCENT GIVING POSITIVE RATINGS

80

71

69

68

70

58

60 50

58

60

48

43

42 35

40

41 30

36

20

25

10

11 0

82

85

88

91

94

97

00

03

06

09

12

YEAR OF SURVEY

3

Source: 1982-2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Economic Outlooks

15

THE OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES IN HARRIS COUNTY (FEBRUARY FIGURES, 1982-2015)

OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES

10.5

10.1

9.8

90

Negative ratings of job opportunities

9.5

80 70

8.6

8.5

8.4 7.8

60

7.3

7.5

6.8

50

6.8 6.6

6.5

40

6.7 30 5.5

5.7 20

5.1

4.5

4.7

4.0

10

4.3

4.3

3.5

0

82

85

88

91

94

97

00

03

06

09

12

15

YEAR OF SURVEY

4

Source: 1982-2015 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted. Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Economic Outlooks

PERCENT GIVING NEGATIVE RATINGS

100

Official unemployment rates in Harris County

THE BIGGEST PROBLEM FACING PEOPLE IN THE HOUSTON AREA TODAY (1982-2015) Traffic

80

71

Economy

70

PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS

70

Crime

60

51 47

50

44 39

40

35

30 30

26

37 31

27

23 16

20

10

15

14

28

26

25

19

21

16

18

20

10

10 0

82

85

88

91

94

97

00

03

06

09

12

15

YEAR OF SURVEY

5

Source: 1982-2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Economic Outlooks

ASSESSMENTS OF TRAFFIC IN THE HOUSTON AREA, AND OF THREE POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS (2009-2015) 100 90

"Over the past three years, has traffic in the Houston area generally gotten better, gotten worse, or has it stayed about the same?"

"Which of these proposals would be the best long-term solution to the traffic problems in the Houston area?"

80 PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS

2009 70 60

2011

2013

2015

65 59 53

56

50

42 40

44 43

40

31 31 30

33 33 28

27 27

27 26

24

21

20

16 15

23

12

10

6

0

Worse

6

Same

Better

Highways

Source: 2009-2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Urbanism

Transit

Economic Outlooks

ASSESSMENTS OF CRIME, AIR POLLUTION, AND THE QUALITY OF LIVING CONDITIONS IN THE HOUSTON AREA (2005-2015) “Very worried” that you or a member of your family will become the victim of a crime.

“Very concerned” about the effects of air pollution on your family’s health.

Living conditions in the Houston area have been “getting better.”

50% 42% 33%

31%

05

7

07

09

11

13

36%

29%

15

05

07

09

11

13

15

Source: 2005-2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

38% 34%

37%

05

07

09

11

13

15

Economic Outlooks

IMPORTANCE OF POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION (2015) 100

"For a person to be successful in today's world, is it necessary to get an education beyond high school, or are there many ways to succeed with no more than a high school education?"

PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS

90 80 70

76

75 68

66

60

53

50

44

40

32

32 30

23

23

20 10 0

Total sample

Anglos

Blacks

Hispanics

Asians

An education beyond high school is necessary There are many ways to succeed with no more than high school

8

Source: 2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Economic Outlooks

Interethnic Relations

THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFORMATIONS OF HARRIS COUNTY (1960-2010)

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 POPULATION IN MILLIONS

4

7.7%

Asians

6.7% 4.1%

3

2.1% 15.5% 2

0.8% 9.9%

0.3% 1

6.0% Asians 20.1%

19.8%

Latinos Blacks

Asians 19.7% Latinos Blacks

Asians 22.7% Latinos Blacks 19.1%

Asians

Asians

Latinos

Latinos 32.9%

40.8%

Latinos

Blacks

Blacks

18.2%

18.4%

Blacks

Anglos 73.9% 0

10

1,243,258

Anglos 69.2%

1,741,912

Anglos

62.7%

2,409,547

Anglos

54.0%

2,818,199

Source: U.S. Census. Classifications based on Texas State Data Center Conventions. Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Anglos 42.1% 3,400,578

33.0%

Anglos

4,092,459

Interethnic Relations

HARRIS COUNTY TOTAL POPULATION

Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 11

1980 Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC. Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Interethnic Relations

HARRIS COUNTY TOTAL POPULATION

Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 12

1990 Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC. Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Interethnic Relations

HARRIS COUNTY TOTAL POPULATION

Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 13

2000 Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC. Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Interethnic Relations

HARRIS COUNTY TOTAL POPULATION

Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 14

2010 Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC. Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Interethnic Relations

PERCENT OF THE POPULATION BY AGE GROUP AND ETHNICITY IN HARRIS COUNTY (2013) Non-Hispanic Whites 79

78

76

76

76

All Others

72

71

70 60

60 49 40 29 21

15

22

24

24

24

28

51

53 47 40

30

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009-2013 ACS 5-year estimates Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Interethnic Relations

ASSESSMENTS OF RACE AND ETHNIC RELATIONS IN THE HOUSTON AREA, BY ETHNICITY (1992-2015) Percent rating ethnic relations as “excellent” or “good”

59%

56%

60%

53% 48%

Anglos

46%

48%

Latinos

45%

49%

37%

35%

36%

38% Blacks 35% 33%

27% 27% 21% 14% 10%

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

16

Source: 1992-2015 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Interethnic Relations

ATTITUDES TOWARD IMMIGRANTS IN HARRIS COUNTY (2009-2015) Percent of respondents agreeing 90%

83% 72%

69% 54%

72%

71% 64%

60%

55%

52%

For: granting a path to legal citizenship.

Admit the same number or more legal immigrants.

59%

47%

The new immigration mostly strengthens American culture.

0%

09

17

11

13

15 09

10

11

12

13

Source: 2009-2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

14

15 09

11

13

Interethnic Relations

15

THE THREE LARGEST COUNTIES IN THE METROPOLITAN REGION Montgomery County Area: 1,077 sq. mi.

Population: 485,225

The nine counties: 6.2 million 9,434 sq. mi.

Fort Bend County Area: 885 sq. mi.

Population: 628,443

Source: ACS 2011-13 Three-Year Estimates. U.S. Census Bureau Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

COUNTY DIFFERENCES

Harris County Area: 1,777 sq. mi.

Population: 4.26 m

ETHNICITY AND EDUCATION IN HOUSTON’S THREE LARGEST COUNTIES (2013) 100%

100%

4

8

10

20

90%

90%

14

10

Adults 25 years and older

22 80%

80% 70%

41

4

60%

60% Asians/Others

50% 40%

Graduate or professional degree

27 30

Blacks

28

Anglos

Some college, Associate's degree

40%

70 30%

30%

24 25

20%

32

Less than high school

10%

10%

21

12

14

0%

0%

Harris Fort Bend (N=4,255,830) (N=628,443)

19

High school graduate

18

20%

36

Bachelor's degree

50%

Latinos

18

21 28

70%

24

21

19

Montgomery (N=485,225)

Harris Fort Bend Montgomery (N=2,657,083) (N=395,806) (N=313,196)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2011-2013 ACS 3-year estimates © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

County Differences

THE BIGGEST PROBLEM FACING PEOPLE IN THREE COUNTIES (2015) Harris

Montgomery

Fort Bend

8.0

11.4

10.0 27.8

28.1

18.4

40.4

23.8

21.2

20.9

24.6 16.8

13.0 20.8

14.8

Traffic

20

Crime

Economy

All other concerns

Source: 2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

DK/RF

County Differences

COUNTY DIFFERENCES IN BELIEFS ABOUT IMMIGRATION AND ETHNIC DIVERSITY (2015) 90

Harris

Fort Bend

Montgomery

80 70 60

71

70 60

67

63

60 53

63 54

54 49

50

45

40 30 20 10 0 The increasing immigration into The increasing ethnic diversity Favor granting illegal immigrants Ratings of the relations among this country mostly strengthens brought about by immigration is a in U.S. a path to legal citizenship. ethnic groups as either "good" or American culture. good thing. "excellent."

21

Source: 2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

County Differences

COUNTY DIFFERENCES IN THE PREFERENCE FOR “WALKABLE URBANISM” (2015) 70

Harris

Fort Bend

Montgomery

60

54 50

40

49

49 45 39

40

43

45

43 38

42 38

30

20

10

0

Prefer area with mix of Improving public transportation developments, including homes, is the best solution to traffic shops, and restaurants. problems.

22

Percent who own a bicycle.

Source: 2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Percent wishing they could ride a bicycle more often.

County Differences

COUNTY DIFFERENCES IN PARTY AFFILIATION (2015) 100% 90%

32 80%

41 53

70% 60%

23 18

50%

Republicans Independent/Other/DK

40%

18

Democrats

30% 20%

45

41 29

10% 0%

Harris

23

Fort Bend

Montgomery

Source: 2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

County Differences

COUNTY DIFFERENCES IN PERSPECTIVES ON PUBLIC POLICY ISSUES (2015) 90

Harris

80

Fort Bend

Montgomery

75

70

66 62

60

56 50

50

45

47 40

40

37 28

30

31

30

20 10 0 Government is trying to do too much that should be left to individuals and businesses.

24

"Very concerned" about Favor a law making it more difficult environmental issues in general. for a woman to obtain an abortion.

Source: 2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Favor the death penalty for persons convicted of murder.

County Differences

SOCIAL AGENDA

ANTI-ABORTION AND PRO-CHOICE IN HARRIS COUNTY (1999-2015) 100%

63%

61% 59%

Opposed to “a law that would make it more difficult for a woman to obtain an abortion.”

58% Believe that “abortion is morally wrong.”

0%

1999

26

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

Source: 1999-2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

2015

Social Agenda

SUPPORT FOR GAY RIGHTS (1991-2015) 70

Agree: "Marriages between homosexuals should be given the same legal status as heterosexual marriages."

PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS

60

Favor: "Homosexuals being legally permitted to adopt children."

51 49

50

47

41

40

42 43

32

31 30

47

45

38

37

40

51

43

37 35

28

27

35

27 20

17

10

91

93

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

YEAR OF SURVEY

27

Source: 1991-2015 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Social Agenda

SUPPORT FOR THE DEATH PENALTY (1993-2015) 80

75 66

70

66

PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS

60

67

58

61

58

62

57

60 56

50

40

34

41

39

30

37

32

20

30

28

Favor "the death penalty for persons convicted of murder."

The death penalty, and not life imprisonment, "should generally be the penalty for persons convicted of first-degree murder."

10

0

93

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

YEAR OF SURVEY

28

Source: 1993-2015 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Social Agenda

CENTRAL FINDINGS FROM THE 2015 SURVEY Ratings of job opportunities have continued to

Economic Outlooks

improve, despite the recent slump in oil prices, and traffic has become the predominant concern.

After a downturn in ratings of ethnic relations, area

Interethnic Relations

residents this year are more optimistic about the burgeoning diversity and more positive in their views of immigrants.

Despite county contrasts in ethnicity, density,

County Differences

education and politics, there are only slight differences in assessments of diversity and in the preference for “walkable urbanism.�

Area residents are personally opposed to abortion

Social Agenda

but they support the right to choose, and they are rethinking their views on same-sex marriage and the death penalty.

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