THE 34TH ANNUAL KINDER HOUSTON AREA SURVEY Perspectives on a City in Transition Dr. Stephen Klineberg
Kinder Houston Area Survey Luncheon April 30, 2015
THE 34TH KINDER HOUSTON AREA SURVEY (2015) Systematic interviews conducted with representative samples of
Economic Outlooks
the residents from Harris, Fort Bend and Montgomery counties,
Interethnic Relations
focused on four central topics: County Differences Social Agenda
2
POSITIVE RATINGS OF JOB OPPORTUNITIES IN THE HOUSTON AREA (1982-2015) 100
Percent rating job opportunities as “excellent” or “good”
90
PERCENT GIVING POSITIVE RATINGS
80
71
69
68
70
58
60 50
58
60
48
43
42 35
40
41 30
36
20
25
10
11 0
82
85
88
91
94
97
00
03
06
09
12
YEAR OF SURVEY
3
Source: 1982-2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Economic Outlooks
15
THE OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES IN HARRIS COUNTY (FEBRUARY FIGURES, 1982-2015)
OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
10.5
10.1
9.8
90
Negative ratings of job opportunities
9.5
80 70
8.6
8.5
8.4 7.8
60
7.3
7.5
6.8
50
6.8 6.6
6.5
40
6.7 30 5.5
5.7 20
5.1
4.5
4.7
4.0
10
4.3
4.3
3.5
0
82
85
88
91
94
97
00
03
06
09
12
15
YEAR OF SURVEY
4
Source: 1982-2015 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted. Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Economic Outlooks
PERCENT GIVING NEGATIVE RATINGS
100
Official unemployment rates in Harris County
THE BIGGEST PROBLEM FACING PEOPLE IN THE HOUSTON AREA TODAY (1982-2015) Traffic
80
71
Economy
70
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS
70
Crime
60
51 47
50
44 39
40
35
30 30
26
37 31
27
23 16
20
10
15
14
28
26
25
19
21
16
18
20
10
10 0
82
85
88
91
94
97
00
03
06
09
12
15
YEAR OF SURVEY
5
Source: 1982-2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Economic Outlooks
ASSESSMENTS OF TRAFFIC IN THE HOUSTON AREA, AND OF THREE POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS (2009-2015) 100 90
"Over the past three years, has traffic in the Houston area generally gotten better, gotten worse, or has it stayed about the same?"
"Which of these proposals would be the best long-term solution to the traffic problems in the Houston area?"
80 PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS
2009 70 60
2011
2013
2015
65 59 53
56
50
42 40
44 43
40
31 31 30
33 33 28
27 27
27 26
24
21
20
16 15
23
12
10
6
0
Worse
6
Same
Better
Highways
Source: 2009-2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Urbanism
Transit
Economic Outlooks
ASSESSMENTS OF CRIME, AIR POLLUTION, AND THE QUALITY OF LIVING CONDITIONS IN THE HOUSTON AREA (2005-2015) “Very worried” that you or a member of your family will become the victim of a crime.
“Very concerned” about the effects of air pollution on your family’s health.
Living conditions in the Houston area have been “getting better.”
50% 42% 33%
31%
05
7
07
09
11
13
36%
29%
15
05
07
09
11
13
15
Source: 2005-2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
38% 34%
37%
05
07
09
11
13
15
Economic Outlooks
IMPORTANCE OF POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION (2015) 100
"For a person to be successful in today's world, is it necessary to get an education beyond high school, or are there many ways to succeed with no more than a high school education?"
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS
90 80 70
76
75 68
66
60
53
50
44
40
32
32 30
23
23
20 10 0
Total sample
Anglos
Blacks
Hispanics
Asians
An education beyond high school is necessary There are many ways to succeed with no more than high school
8
Source: 2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Economic Outlooks
Interethnic Relations
THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFORMATIONS OF HARRIS COUNTY (1960-2010)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 POPULATION IN MILLIONS
4
7.7%
Asians
6.7% 4.1%
3
2.1% 15.5% 2
0.8% 9.9%
0.3% 1
6.0% Asians 20.1%
19.8%
Latinos Blacks
Asians 19.7% Latinos Blacks
Asians 22.7% Latinos Blacks 19.1%
Asians
Asians
Latinos
Latinos 32.9%
40.8%
Latinos
Blacks
Blacks
18.2%
18.4%
Blacks
Anglos 73.9% 0
10
1,243,258
Anglos 69.2%
1,741,912
Anglos
62.7%
2,409,547
Anglos
54.0%
2,818,199
Source: U.S. Census. Classifications based on Texas State Data Center Conventions. Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Anglos 42.1% 3,400,578
33.0%
Anglos
4,092,459
Interethnic Relations
HARRIS COUNTY TOTAL POPULATION
Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 11
1980 Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC. Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Interethnic Relations
HARRIS COUNTY TOTAL POPULATION
Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 12
1990 Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC. Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Interethnic Relations
HARRIS COUNTY TOTAL POPULATION
Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 13
2000 Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC. Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Interethnic Relations
HARRIS COUNTY TOTAL POPULATION
Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 14
2010 Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC. Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Interethnic Relations
PERCENT OF THE POPULATION BY AGE GROUP AND ETHNICITY IN HARRIS COUNTY (2013) Non-Hispanic Whites 79
78
76
76
76
All Others
72
71
70 60
60 49 40 29 21
15
22
24
24
24
28
51
53 47 40
30
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009-2013 ACS 5-year estimates Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Interethnic Relations
ASSESSMENTS OF RACE AND ETHNIC RELATIONS IN THE HOUSTON AREA, BY ETHNICITY (1992-2015) Percent rating ethnic relations as “excellent” or “good”
59%
56%
60%
53% 48%
Anglos
46%
48%
Latinos
45%
49%
37%
35%
36%
38% Blacks 35% 33%
27% 27% 21% 14% 10%
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
16
Source: 1992-2015 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Interethnic Relations
ATTITUDES TOWARD IMMIGRANTS IN HARRIS COUNTY (2009-2015) Percent of respondents agreeing 90%
83% 72%
69% 54%
72%
71% 64%
60%
55%
52%
For: granting a path to legal citizenship.
Admit the same number or more legal immigrants.
59%
47%
The new immigration mostly strengthens American culture.
0%
09
17
11
13
15 09
10
11
12
13
Source: 2009-2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
14
15 09
11
13
Interethnic Relations
15
THE THREE LARGEST COUNTIES IN THE METROPOLITAN REGION Montgomery County Area: 1,077 sq. mi. Population: 485,225
The nine counties: 6.2 million 9,434 sq. mi.
Fort Bend County Area: 885 sq. mi. Population: 628,443
Source: ACS 2011-13 Three-Year Estimates. U.S. Census Bureau Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
COUNTY DIFFERENCES
Harris County Area: 1,777 sq. mi. Population: 4.26 m
ETHNICITY AND EDUCATION IN HOUSTON’S THREE LARGEST COUNTIES (2013) 100%
100%
4
8
10
20
90%
90%
14
10
Adults 25 years and older
22 80%
80% 70%
41
4
60%
60% Asians/Others
50% 40%
Graduate or professional degree
27 30
Blacks
28
Anglos
Some college, Associate's degree
40%
70 30%
30%
24 25
20%
32
Less than high school
10%
10%
21
12
14
0%
0%
Harris Fort Bend (N=4,255,830) (N=628,443)
19
High school graduate
18
20%
36
Bachelor's degree
50%
Latinos
18
21 28
70%
24
21
19
Montgomery (N=485,225)
Harris Fort Bend Montgomery (N=2,657,083) (N=395,806) (N=313,196)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2011-2013 ACS 3-year estimates © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
County Differences
THE BIGGEST PROBLEM FACING PEOPLE IN THREE COUNTIES (2015) Harris
Montgomery
Fort Bend
8.0
11.4
10.0 27.8
28.1
18.4
40.4
23.8
21.2
20.9
24.6 16.8
13.0 20.8
14.8
Traffic
20
Crime
Economy
All other concerns
Source: 2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
DK/RF
County Differences
COUNTY DIFFERENCES IN BELIEFS ABOUT IMMIGRATION AND ETHNIC DIVERSITY (2015) 90
Harris
Fort Bend
Montgomery
80 70 60
71
70 60
67
63
60 53
63 54
54 49
50
45
40 30 20 10 0 The increasing immigration into The increasing ethnic diversity Favor granting illegal immigrants Ratings of the relations among this country mostly strengthens brought about by immigration is a in U.S. a path to legal citizenship. ethnic groups as either "good" or American culture. good thing. "excellent."
21
Source: 2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
County Differences
COUNTY DIFFERENCES IN THE PREFERENCE FOR “WALKABLE URBANISM” (2015) 70
Harris
Fort Bend
Montgomery
60
54 50
40
49
49 45 39
40
43
45
43 38
42 38
30
20
10
0
Prefer area with mix of Improving public transportation developments, including homes, is the best solution to traffic shops, and restaurants. problems.
22
Percent who own a bicycle.
Source: 2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Percent wishing they could ride a bicycle more often.
County Differences
COUNTY DIFFERENCES IN PARTY AFFILIATION (2015) 100% 90%
32 80%
41 53
70% 60%
23 18
50%
Republicans Independent/Other/DK
40%
18
Democrats
30% 20%
45
41 29
10% 0%
Harris
23
Fort Bend
Montgomery
Source: 2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
County Differences
COUNTY DIFFERENCES IN PERSPECTIVES ON PUBLIC POLICY ISSUES (2015) 90
Harris
80
Fort Bend
Montgomery
75
70
66 62
60
56 50
50
45
47 40
40
37 28
30
31
30
20 10 0 Government is trying to do too much that should be left to individuals and businesses.
24
"Very concerned" about Favor a law making it more difficult environmental issues in general. for a woman to obtain an abortion.
Source: 2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Favor the death penalty for persons convicted of murder.
County Differences
SOCIAL AGENDA
ANTI-ABORTION AND PRO-CHOICE IN HARRIS COUNTY (1999-2015) 100%
63%
61% 59%
Opposed to “a law that would make it more difficult for a woman to obtain an abortion.”
58% Believe that “abortion is morally wrong.”
0%
1999
26
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Source: 1999-2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
2015
Social Agenda
SUPPORT FOR GAY RIGHTS (1991-2015) 70
Agree: "Marriages between homosexuals should be given the same legal status as heterosexual marriages."
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS
60
Favor: "Homosexuals being legally permitted to adopt children."
51 49
50
47
41
40
42 43
32
31 30
47
45
38
37
40
51
43
37 35
28
27
35
27 20
17
10
91
93
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
YEAR OF SURVEY
27
Source: 1991-2015 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Social Agenda
SUPPORT FOR THE DEATH PENALTY (1993-2015) 80
75 66
70
66
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS
60
67
58
61
58
62
57
60 56
50
40
34
41
39
30
37
32
20
30
28
Favor "the death penalty for persons convicted of murder." The death penalty, and not life imprisonment, "should generally be the penalty for persons convicted of first-degree murder."
10
0
93
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
YEAR OF SURVEY
28
Source: 1993-2015 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Social Agenda
CENTRAL FINDINGS FROM THE 2015 SURVEY Ratings of job opportunities have continued to
Economic Outlooks
improve, despite the recent slump in oil prices, and traffic has become the predominant concern.
After a downturn in ratings of ethnic relations, area
Interethnic Relations
residents this year are more optimistic about the burgeoning diversity and more positive in their views of immigrants.
Despite county contrasts in ethnicity, density,
County Differences
education and politics, there are only slight differences in assessments of diversity and in the preference for “walkable urbanism.� Area residents are personally opposed to abortion
Social Agenda
but they support the right to choose, and they are rethinking their views on same-sex marriage and the death penalty.
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