2012 Houston Area Survey

THE 2012 KINDER HOUSTON AREA SURVEY:

Perspectives on a City in Transition STEPHEN L. KLINEBERG The GHP-Kinder Institute Luncheon and Release of the Findings, 24 April 2012

KINDER HOUSTON AREA SURVEY (1982-2012) Supported by local foundations, corporations, and individuals, and now with a permanent home in the Kinder Institute for Urban Research, the annual surveys have interviewed 31 successive representative samples of Harris County residents.

In May 1982, just two months after the first Houston-area survey was completed, the 80-year oil boom suddenly collapsed.

The region recovered from the deep and prolonged recession of the mid 1980s to find itself squarely in the midst of …  a restructured economy and  a demographic revolution.

These are the same transformations that are refashioning all of American society. The Houston surveys have tracked area residents’ changing perspectives on these remarkable trends.

POSITIVE PERCEPTIONS OF JOB OPPORTUNITIES IN HOUSTON (1982–2012) 100 90 80 71 66

PERCENT GIVING POSITIVE RATINGS

70

68 64 58 57

60

48

50

43

45

42

40 41 30

36

35 35 25

20 10

11

0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 YEAR OF SURVEY

NEGATIVE PERCEPTIONS OF JOB OPPORTUNITIES AND ACTUAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES (1982-2012) 11.0

100 Negative ratings of job opportunities 10.1

90

9.8

10.5

Official unemployment rates in Harris County

86

10.0 9.5

80 72 8.6

PERCENT GIVING NEGATIVE RATINGS

61 60

7.8

54

6.8

7.3 7.5 51

6.6

6.7 32

30

8.5 8.0

61

55

40

8.4

61

57 53

50

9.0

34

40 41

28

6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0

20 5.1 10

7.0

4.5

4.5

4.7 4.4

4.3

4.0

4.0 3.5

0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 YEAR OF SURVEY SOURCE: US DEPARTMENT OF LABOR, BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS. UNEMPLOYMENT RATES ARE NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED.

OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES

70

WHAT IS THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IN THE HOUSTON AREA TODAY? (1982-2012) 90 Traffic 80 Economy 71 70

70

Crime

60 51 47

PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS

50

44 39

40 36 30

26

37

35 25

27

20

16 14

10

10

14

15

10 0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 YEAR OF SURVEY

PERCENT DOING BETTER IN LAST FEW YEARS AND EXPECTING TO DO BETTER IN NEXT FEW YEARS 80

70

60

Will be 'better off' financially three or four years down the road.

59

66

65

62

58

57 57 56 49

50

44 47

33

31

30

31 Personal financial situation has been 'getting better' during the last few years

20

42

42

41

40 PERCENT SAYING 'BETTER'

54

23

28 27

20

10

0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 YEAR OF SURVEY

PERCENT WITH PROBLEMS BUYING THE GROCERIES TO FEED THEIR FAMILIES (2002-2012) 50

40

If R has a child living at home: “How serious a problem has it been for you personally during the past year to buy the groceries you need to feed your family? Has that been a very serious problem, somewhat serious, or not much of a problem for you during the past year?”

Percent saying: “somewhat” or “very serious” problem. (r=+.070, p=.000) 32 30

PERCENT HAVING ‘SOME PROBLEM'

30

20

28

20

20

10

0 2002

2009

2010

2011

2012

TWO MEASURES OF BELIEF IN THE ‘AMERICAN WORK ETHIC’ (1982-2012) 100

90

89

87

"If you work hard in this city, eventually you will succeed."

82 79

80

79

77

81

88

86

(r=+.085, p=.000)

71 74

70

71

66

64 59

PERCENT 'AGREEING'

60

50

56

52

(r=+.067, p=.000)

"People who work hard and live by the rules are not getting a fair break these days."

40

30 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 YEAR OF SURVEY

SUPPORT FOR GOVERNMENT EFFORTS TO REDUCE THE INEQUALITIES (1996-2012) 90 "Most poor people in the US today are poor because of circumstances they can't control." (r=+.099, p=.000)

80

70 70

65 62

59 "Government should take action to reduce income differences between rich and poor in America." (r=+.022, p=.147) 45

51

49

49 PERCENT ‘AGREEING’

40

72

60

60

50

75 66

41

38 35

37

44

37 35 30

30 "Most people who receive welfare benefits are really in need of help."(r=+.018, p=.045)

20

10 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YEAR OF SURVEY

THE NEW IMPORTANCE OF QUALITY OF PLACE CONSIDERATIONS Houston's prospects will now increasingly depend on the ability of the region to attract and retain the nation’s most skilled and creative “knowledge workers” and high-tech companies.

This will require continued significant improvements in …  the healthfulness of the region’s air and water quality  the excellence of its venues for sports, arts, and culture  its overall physical attractiveness and aesthetic appeal  the enhancement of its green spaces, trees, and bayous  the revitalization and preservation of its urban centers  the region’s mobility through its transportation systems  the richness of its hiking, boating, and birding areas The public’s support for new initiatives along these lines has remained firm or grown stronger across the years of surveys.

SUPPORT FOR MASS TRANSIT IN HOUSTON (2012) 70

60

Importance of a much improved mass transit system 56

How to spend Metro funds

Spending transportation funds

61

Used mass transit in the past year

55 51

50 44 40

40

PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS

35 30

21 20

11 10

8

8

0 Very Somewhat Not Important Important Important

Transit only

Non-transit

Transit

Highways Not at All Less than once a month

Once a month

At least once a week

THE INTEREST AMONG ANGLOS IN MOVING FROM SUBURBS TO CITY AND FROM CITY TO SUBURBS (1999-2012) PERCENT SAYING 'VERY' OR 'SOMEWHAT INTERESTED’

65 If lives in SUBURBS: 'very' or 'somewhat interested' in someday moving to the city.

60

If lives in CITY: 'very' or 'somewhat interested' in someday moving to the suburbs.

55

52

50

48

47

45

(r= -.092, p=.000) 40

44

40

39

37 34

35

31

30 26

28

33

26

33

31

29

29 28

25

27

29 22

20

20

27

(r= +.038, p=.009)

22

15 [Anglo respondents only.]

10 5 1999

2000

YEAR OF SURVEY

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

RESIDENTIAL PREFERENCES (2008-2012) "If you could choose where to live in the Houston area, which would you prefer? "

"If you could live anywhere in the Houston area, what sort of neighborhood would you prefer?"

80

80 Single-family home with big yard, need to drive

70

60

Smaller home, more urbanized, walking distance (r=+.109, p=.000)

59

A single-family residential area

(r=-.016, n.s.)

58

60 51

50

PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS

40

An area with a mix of developments

70

47 39

50

52

49 47

50

50

47

40

36

30

30

20

20

10

10

0

0 2008

2010

2012

2007

2009

2011

RATINGS OF THE HOUSTON AREA IN GENERAL AS A PLACE TO LIVE (1996-2012) 100 "How would you rate the Houston area in general as a place to live?"

90

Fair/Poor

(r=+.001, p=.000)

Excellent/Good

80 70

71

71

70

68

78

77

76

PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS

60 50 40 32 30

29

29

28 23

22

22

20 10 0 1996 YEAR OF SURVEY

2001

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFORMATIONS OF HARRIS COUNTY (1960-2010) 4.5 4.0

7.7%

Asians/Others Hispanics

3.5 3.0

6.3% Blacks Anglos

4.1% 40.8%

2.5

2.1%

22.7%

32.9%

19.1%

18.3%

18.4%

42.5%

33.0%

POPULATION, IN MILLIONS

15.5% 2.0 1.5

0.8% 9.9% 0.3% 6.0%

1.0

19.8%

0.5

73.9%

19.7%

20.1%

69.2%

62.7%

54.0%

0.0 1960 (1,243,258)

1970 (1,741,912)

1980 (2,409,547)

1990 (2,818,199)

SOURCE: US CENSUS. CLASSIFICATIONS BASED ON TEXAS STATE DATA CENTER CONVENTIONS.

2000 (3,400,578)

2010 (4,092,459)

THE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES IN THE FOUR LARGEST SURROUNDING COUNTIES (2000-2010) 700,000 Asians/Others 600,000

Hispanics

19.0%

Blacks Anglos

500,000 4.0%

400,000

23.7%

20.8%

13.1% 4.1% 21.1%

POPULATION

200,000

7.3%

2.5%

300,000 21.1%

4.8% 3.7%

12.6% 3.4%

3.5% 22.8%

18.0% 71.2%

19.6%

100,000

36.2%

27.7%

22.4% 15.3%

13.5%

63.1%

59.3%

11.8% 8.3%

81.4%

53.2% 65.4%

46.2%

0 Fort Bend-2000 (354,452)

Fort Bend-2010 Montgomery-2000 Montgomery-2010 Galveston-2000 (585,375) (293,768) (455,746) (250,158)

Galveston-2010 (291,309)

SOURCE: US CENSUS. CLASSIFICATIONS BASED ON TEXAS STATE DATA CENTER CONVENTIONS.

Brazoria-2000 (241,767)

Brazoria-2010 (313,166)

ETHNICITY BY AGE IN HARRIS COUNTY (2010-2012, COMBINED AND WEIGHTED) 70 Anglos

Blacks

Hispanics

Asians/Others

60 53 50

49

50

42 40

PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS

33 30

26

26

23 20

20

18

17

18

10

10 4

5

7

0 AGES 66-94 (N=566)

AGES 48-65 (N=1,288)

AGES 30-47 (N=1,448)

AGES 18-29 (N=1,123)

ASSESSMENTS OF ETHNIC RELATIONS IN THE HOUSTON AREA, BY ETHNICITY (1992-2012) 65 Percent rating "the relations among ethnic groups in the Houston area" as either "excellent" or "good."

60 55

Anglos (r= +.186, p=.000)

50

Blacks (r= +.133, p=.000)

45

Latinos (r= +.096, p=.000)

53

54 51 Anglos

48

48

49 41

PERCENT GIVING POSITIVE RATINGS

40 Latinos

35 30

27

25 20

40

39

35 38 33

33

Blacks 27

21

15 14 10 5 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YEAR OF SURVEY

SUPPORT FOR “ILLEGAL� IMMIGRANTS (2008-2012) 120 110

Favor: "Allowing the children of undocumented immigrants to become U.S. citizens, if graduated from college or served in military."

Favor: "Granting illegal immigrants in the U.S. a path to legal citizenship, if they speak English and have no criminal record."

The influx of undocumented immigrants is not a "very serious" problem for the city.

100 (r=+.045, p=.001)

(r=+.028, p=.008)

90 80 71 70

66 63

64

83

82

2010

2012

74

66

60 51 50 43 40 30 20 10 0 2008

2010

2012

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

SOME HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE 2012 SURVEY • The economic outlooks may have brightened slightly during the past year, but Harris County residents report no improvement at all in their personal financial situations.

• The survey participants are concerned about the perceived unfairness of the growing inequalities and they back government programs to restore a more broad-based prosperity.

• The research reveals a significant increase in the number of area residents who support mass transit and in their declared preference for a less car-centered, more urbanized lifestyle.

• The Harris County respondents are growing more optimistic about the region’s ethnic diversity and they are less antagonistic in their attitudes toward undocumented immigrants.

THE NEW PRO-GROWTH AGENDA  To prosper in the high-technology, knowledge-based, worldwide economy, this city (and nation) will need to nurture a far more educated workforce and fashion policies to reduce the growing inequalities and prevent the rise of a new urban underclass.  To attract the most talented companies and individuals, Houston will need to grow into a more environmentally and aesthetically appealing urban destination, and build the research centers that will fuel the engines of growth in the new economy.  To flourish in the years ahead, the region will need to develop into a much more unified and inclusive multiethnic society, one in which equality of opportunity is truly made available to all of Houston’s residents and all of its communities are encouraged to participate as full partners in shaping the Houston future.

CONTACT US FOR MORE INFORMATION: THE KINDER INSTITUTE FOR URBAN RESEARCH AT RICE UNIVERSITY PROFESSORS STEPHEN KLINEBERG AND MICHAEL EMERSON, CO-DIRECTORS

www.kinder.rice.edu kinder@rice.edu 713-348-4132