THE 2012 KINDER HOUSTON AREA SURVEY:
Perspectives on a City in Transition STEPHEN L. KLINEBERG The GHP-Kinder Institute Luncheon and Release of the Findings, 24 April 2012
KINDER HOUSTON AREA SURVEY (1982-2012) Supported by local foundations, corporations, and individuals, and now with a permanent home in the Kinder Institute for Urban Research, the annual surveys have interviewed 31 successive representative samples of Harris County residents. In May 1982, just two months after the first Houston-area survey was completed, the 80-year oil boom suddenly collapsed. The region recovered from the deep and prolonged recession of the mid 1980s to find itself squarely in the midst of … a restructured economy and a demographic revolution. These are the same transformations that are refashioning all of American society. The Houston surveys have tracked area residents’ changing perspectives on these remarkable trends.
POSITIVE PERCEPTIONS OF JOB OPPORTUNITIES IN HOUSTON (1982–2012) 100 90 80 71 66
PERCENT GIVING POSITIVE RATINGS
70
68 64 58 57
60
48
50
43
45
42
40 41 30
36
35 35 25
20 10
11
0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 YEAR OF SURVEY
NEGATIVE PERCEPTIONS OF JOB OPPORTUNITIES AND ACTUAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES (1982-2012) 11.0
100 Negative ratings of job opportunities 10.1
90
9.8
10.5
Official unemployment rates in Harris County
86
10.0 9.5
80 72 8.6
PERCENT GIVING NEGATIVE RATINGS
61 60
7.8
54
6.8
7.3 7.5 51
6.6
6.7 32
30
8.5 8.0
61
55
40
8.4
61
57 53
50
9.0
34
40 41
28
6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0
20 5.1 10
7.0
4.5
4.5
4.7 4.4
4.3
4.0
4.0 3.5
0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 YEAR OF SURVEY SOURCE: US DEPARTMENT OF LABOR, BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS. UNEMPLOYMENT RATES ARE NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED.
OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
70
WHAT IS THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IN THE HOUSTON AREA TODAY? (1982-2012) 90 Traffic 80 Economy 71 70
70
Crime
60 51 47
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS
50
44 39
40 36 30
26
37
35 25
27
20
16 14
10
10
14
15
10 0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 YEAR OF SURVEY
PERCENT DOING BETTER IN LAST FEW YEARS AND EXPECTING TO DO BETTER IN NEXT FEW YEARS 80
70
60
Will be 'better off' financially three or four years down the road. 59
66
65
62
58
57 57 56 49
50
44 47
33
31
30
31 Personal financial situation has been 'getting better' during the last few years
20
42
42
41
40 PERCENT SAYING 'BETTER'
54
23
28 27
20
10
0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 YEAR OF SURVEY
PERCENT WITH PROBLEMS BUYING THE GROCERIES TO FEED THEIR FAMILIES (2002-2012) 50
40
If R has a child living at home: “How serious a problem has it been for you personally during the past year to buy the groceries you need to feed your family? Has that been a very serious problem, somewhat serious, or not much of a problem for you during the past year?” Percent saying: “somewhat” or “very serious” problem. (r=+.070, p=.000) 32 30
PERCENT HAVING ‘SOME PROBLEM'
30
20
28
20
20
10
0 2002
2009
2010
2011
2012
TWO MEASURES OF BELIEF IN THE ‘AMERICAN WORK ETHIC’ (1982-2012) 100
90
89
87
"If you work hard in this city, eventually you will succeed."
82 79
80
79
77
81
88
86
(r=+.085, p=.000)
71 74
70
71
66
64 59
PERCENT 'AGREEING'
60
50
56
52
(r=+.067, p=.000)
"People who work hard and live by the rules are not getting a fair break these days."
40
30 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 YEAR OF SURVEY
SUPPORT FOR GOVERNMENT EFFORTS TO REDUCE THE INEQUALITIES (1996-2012) 90 "Most poor people in the US today are poor because of circumstances they can't control." (r=+.099, p=.000)
80
70 70
65 62
59 "Government should take action to reduce income differences between rich and poor in America." (r=+.022, p=.147) 45
51
49
49 PERCENT ‘AGREEING’
40
72
60
60
50
75 66
41
38 35
37
44
37 35 30
30 "Most people who receive welfare benefits are really in need of help."(r=+.018, p=.045)
20
10 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YEAR OF SURVEY
THE NEW IMPORTANCE OF QUALITY OF PLACE CONSIDERATIONS Houston's prospects will now increasingly depend on the ability of the region to attract and retain the nation’s most skilled and creative “knowledge workers” and high-tech companies. This will require continued significant improvements in … the healthfulness of the region’s air and water quality the excellence of its venues for sports, arts, and culture its overall physical attractiveness and aesthetic appeal the enhancement of its green spaces, trees, and bayous the revitalization and preservation of its urban centers the region’s mobility through its transportation systems the richness of its hiking, boating, and birding areas The public’s support for new initiatives along these lines has remained firm or grown stronger across the years of surveys.
SUPPORT FOR MASS TRANSIT IN HOUSTON (2012) 70
60
Importance of a much improved mass transit system 56
How to spend Metro funds
Spending transportation funds
61
Used mass transit in the past year
55 51
50 44 40
40
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS
35 30
21 20
11 10
8
8
0 Very Somewhat Not Important Important Important
Transit only
Non-transit
Transit
Highways Not at All Less than once a month
Once a month
At least once a week
THE INTEREST AMONG ANGLOS IN MOVING FROM SUBURBS TO CITY AND FROM CITY TO SUBURBS (1999-2012) PERCENT SAYING 'VERY' OR 'SOMEWHAT INTERESTED’
65 If lives in SUBURBS: 'very' or 'somewhat interested' in someday moving to the city.
60
If lives in CITY: 'very' or 'somewhat interested' in someday moving to the suburbs. 55
52
50
48
47
45
(r= -.092, p=.000) 40
44
40
39
37 34
35
31
30 26
28
33
26
33
31
29
29 28
25
27
29 22
20
20
27
(r= +.038, p=.009)
22
15 [Anglo respondents only.]
10 5 1999
2000
YEAR OF SURVEY
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
RESIDENTIAL PREFERENCES (2008-2012) "If you could choose where to live in the Houston area, which would you prefer? "
"If you could live anywhere in the Houston area, what sort of neighborhood would you prefer?"
80
80 Single-family home with big yard, need to drive
70
60
Smaller home, more urbanized, walking distance (r=+.109, p=.000)
59
A single-family residential area
(r=-.016, n.s.)
58
60 51
50
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS
40
An area with a mix of developments
70
47 39
50
52
49 47
50
50
47
40
36
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0 2008
2010
2012
2007
2009
2011
RATINGS OF THE HOUSTON AREA IN GENERAL AS A PLACE TO LIVE (1996-2012) 100 "How would you rate the Houston area in general as a place to live?" 90
Fair/Poor
(r=+.001, p=.000)
Excellent/Good
80 70
71
71
70
68
78
77
76
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS
60 50 40 32 30
29
29
28 23
22
22
20 10 0 1996 YEAR OF SURVEY
2001
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFORMATIONS OF HARRIS COUNTY (1960-2010) 4.5 4.0
7.7%
Asians/Others Hispanics
3.5 3.0
6.3% Blacks Anglos
4.1% 40.8%
2.5
2.1%
22.7%
32.9%
19.1%
18.3%
18.4%
42.5%
33.0%
POPULATION, IN MILLIONS
15.5% 2.0 1.5
0.8% 9.9% 0.3% 6.0%
1.0
19.8%
0.5
73.9%
19.7%
20.1%
69.2%
62.7%
54.0%
0.0 1960 (1,243,258)
1970 (1,741,912)
1980 (2,409,547)
1990 (2,818,199)
SOURCE: US CENSUS. CLASSIFICATIONS BASED ON TEXAS STATE DATA CENTER CONVENTIONS.
2000 (3,400,578)
2010 (4,092,459)
THE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES IN THE FOUR LARGEST SURROUNDING COUNTIES (2000-2010) 700,000 Asians/Others 600,000
Hispanics
19.0%
Blacks Anglos
500,000 4.0%
400,000
23.7%
20.8%
13.1% 4.1% 21.1%
POPULATION
200,000
7.3%
2.5%
300,000 21.1%
4.8% 3.7%
12.6% 3.4%
3.5% 22.8%
18.0% 71.2%
19.6%
100,000
36.2%
27.7%
22.4% 15.3%
13.5%
63.1%
59.3%
11.8% 8.3%
81.4%
53.2% 65.4%
46.2%
0 Fort Bend-2000 (354,452)
Fort Bend-2010 Montgomery-2000 Montgomery-2010 Galveston-2000 (585,375) (293,768) (455,746) (250,158)
Galveston-2010 (291,309)
SOURCE: US CENSUS. CLASSIFICATIONS BASED ON TEXAS STATE DATA CENTER CONVENTIONS.
Brazoria-2000 (241,767)
Brazoria-2010 (313,166)
ETHNICITY BY AGE IN HARRIS COUNTY (2010-2012, COMBINED AND WEIGHTED) 70 Anglos
Blacks
Hispanics
Asians/Others
60 53 50
49
50
42 40
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS
33 30
26
26
23 20
20
18
17
18
10
10 4
5
7
0 AGES 66-94 (N=566)
AGES 48-65 (N=1,288)
AGES 30-47 (N=1,448)
AGES 18-29 (N=1,123)
ASSESSMENTS OF ETHNIC RELATIONS IN THE HOUSTON AREA, BY ETHNICITY (1992-2012) 65 Percent rating "the relations among ethnic groups in the Houston area" as either "excellent" or "good."
60 55
Anglos (r= +.186, p=.000)
50
Blacks (r= +.133, p=.000)
45
Latinos (r= +.096, p=.000)
53
54 51 Anglos
48
48
49 41
PERCENT GIVING POSITIVE RATINGS
40 Latinos
35 30
27
25 20
40
39
35 38 33
33
Blacks 27
21
15 14 10 5 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YEAR OF SURVEY
SUPPORT FOR “ILLEGAL� IMMIGRANTS (2008-2012) 120 110
Favor: "Allowing the children of undocumented immigrants to become U.S. citizens, if graduated from college or served in military."
Favor: "Granting illegal immigrants in the U.S. a path to legal citizenship, if they speak English and have no criminal record."
The influx of undocumented immigrants is not a "very serious" problem for the city.
100 (r=+.045, p=.001)
(r=+.028, p=.008)
90 80 71 70
66 63
64
83
82
2010
2012
74
66
60 51 50 43 40 30 20 10 0 2008
2010
2012
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
SOME HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE 2012 SURVEY • The economic outlooks may have brightened slightly during the past year, but Harris County residents report no improvement at all in their personal financial situations. • The survey participants are concerned about the perceived unfairness of the growing inequalities and they back government programs to restore a more broad-based prosperity. • The research reveals a significant increase in the number of area residents who support mass transit and in their declared preference for a less car-centered, more urbanized lifestyle. • The Harris County respondents are growing more optimistic about the region’s ethnic diversity and they are less antagonistic in their attitudes toward undocumented immigrants.
THE NEW PRO-GROWTH AGENDA To prosper in the high-technology, knowledge-based, worldwide economy, this city (and nation) will need to nurture a far more educated workforce and fashion policies to reduce the growing inequalities and prevent the rise of a new urban underclass. To attract the most talented companies and individuals, Houston will need to grow into a more environmentally and aesthetically appealing urban destination, and build the research centers that will fuel the engines of growth in the new economy. To flourish in the years ahead, the region will need to develop into a much more unified and inclusive multiethnic society, one in which equality of opportunity is truly made available to all of Houston’s residents and all of its communities are encouraged to participate as full partners in shaping the Houston future.
CONTACT US FOR MORE INFORMATION: THE KINDER INSTITUTE FOR URBAN RESEARCH AT RICE UNIVERSITY PROFESSORS STEPHEN KLINEBERG AND MICHAEL EMERSON, CO-DIRECTORS
www.kinder.rice.edu kinder@rice.edu 713-348-4132