The 33rd Annual Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey Tracking Responses to the Ongoing Economic and Demographic Transformations Dr. Stephen Klineberg The Basic Presentation, April 2014
The Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey (1982-2014) More than three decades of systematic interviews with representative samples of Harris County residents, focused on three central issues:
The New Economy The Demographic Revolution Quality of Place
2
Percent increase in before-tax income
Two contrasting economic eras
110%
116% 111%
114%
100%
99% 86%
The 30 years after World War II were a period of broad-based prosperity.
63% 50% 43%
The past 30 years have been marked by growing income inequalities. -10%
-3%
2%
Bottom 20%
Second 20%
5%
15%
Middle 20%
Fourth 20%
Top 20%
Top 5%
The 30 years after World War II (1949-1979) The past 30 years (1980-2011)
3
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements. Mean Household Income Received By Each Fifth And The Top 5 Percent, Inflation Adjusted. Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The New Economy
Positive evaluations of job opportunities in the Houston area (1982-2014) 100
Percent rating job opportunities as “excellent” or “good”
90 80
71%
66% 68%
70
58%
60 50
43%
58%
42%
48%
40 30
41%
36%
35% 25%
20 10
60%
11%
0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
4
Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (1982-2014) © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The New Economy
The official unemployment rates in Harris County (1982-2014) 11.0 10.5 10.0
9.8
10.1
9.5
8.6
9.0 8.5 8.0
7.8
7.5
6.8
7.0 6.5
6.5
7.3 6.8
6.0 5.5
5.7
5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5
4.0
4.3
3.0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
5
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted. Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The New Economy
Assessments of personal financial situations (1982-2014) 80
Will be “better off” financially three or four years down the road.
70
60
59
66
65
62
58
57 57 56
51
49
50
45 42
41
38
37
40
20
10
34
33
31
30
55
54
28
27
Personal financial situation has been “getting better” in the last few years.
23
27
26
21
0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
6
Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (1982-2014) © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The New Economy
The biggest problem facing people in the Houston area today (2012-2014) 2013
2012
16 32
15
31 37
2014
21
29
37 26
22
Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey (2012-2014) Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
15
20
The New Economy
The prevalence of food insecurity (2014) “At any time in the past year, did you have a problem paying for the groceries to feed your household? Has that been a very serious problem for you, somewhat serious, not much of a problem, or not a problem during the past year?”
12
6
16 67 "Not a problem" "Not much of a problem" "Somewhat serious problem" "A very serious problem"
8
Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey (2014) © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The New Economy
80 70
Views of government efforts to reduce the inequalities in America (2010-2014) 2010
2012
2014
67
64 60
60 50
62
45 41
40 30
59
39
30
20 10
0 "Most people who receive welfare benefits are really in need of help."
9
Favor: "Federal health insurance to cover the medical costs of all Americans."
Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey (2010-2014) Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
"Government should take action to reduce income differences between rich and poor in America."
The New Economy
Support for raising the minimum wage (2014) “Some people say the minimum wage should be raised to help low-income workers get by. Others say raising the minimum wage will lead to fewer jobs. Given these arguments, do you strongly favor, slightly favor, slightly oppose, or strongly oppose raising the minimum wage?”
1
28 48
23
Strongly in favor Slightly in favor Strongly/Slightly opposed Don't Know
10
Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey (2014) © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The New Economy
The importance of post-secondary education, in the total sample and by ethnicity (2013) 100
"For a person to be successful in today's world, is it necessary to get an education beyond high school, or are there many ways to succeed with no more than a high school diploma?"
90 80
73
71
70
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS
81
78
63
60 50
36
40
30
27
25 20
20
17
10 0 Total sample
Anglos (N=331)
Blacks (N=220)
Hispanics (N=360)
Asians (N=36)
An education beyond high school is necessary There are many ways to succeed with no more than high school 11
Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey (2013) Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The New Economy
Attitudes toward various proposals to improve the public schools (Education Survey, 2012) Paying for universal preschool to ensure that all low-income children are ready for kindergarten.
70 27
Paying for after-school academic programs for public school students.
66 33
Increasing amount of time that U.S. students spend in school each year.
63 35
Establishing more public charter schools in your community.
Strongly/Somewhat favor Strongly/Somewhat oppose
12
63 31 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS
Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Education Survey (2012) Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The New Economy
90
100
The Demographic Revolution
The number of documented U.S. immigrants, by decade (1820-2010) 12
From 1492 to 1965, 82% of all immigrants coming to America came from Europe.
10
8
After reform in 1965, 88% of all the new immigrants have been non-Europeans.
Millions of immigrants
10.5
8.8
1965
6
“Hart-Celler Act”
4
2
1924
0.1
“National Origins Quota Act”
0.5
0 1820s 1830s 1840s 1850s 1860s 1870s 1880s 1890s 1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
14
Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Office of Immigration Statistics. © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The Demographic Revolution
Major U.S. immigrant cities (2010)
Boston San Francisco
Chicago
New York City Washington D.C.
Los Angeles
San Diego
Dallas
Atlanta
Miami
Houston
15
Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The Demographic Revolution
The demographic changes in Harris and Fort Bend counties (1990-2010) Harris County
4.5
2010 2000
4.0 3.5 3.0
Asians/Others
7.7%
600,000
6.7%
1990
500,000
400,000
32.9%
2.0
300,000
19.1% 1.5
18.2%
18.4% 200,000
1.0
54.0%
42.1%
2000
40.8%
33.0%
POPULATION
POPULATION, IN MILLIONS
19.0%
Anglos
4.1%
22.7%
1990
23.7%
13.1%
6.5%
21.1%
19.5%
19.6%
21.1%
20.3% 100,000
53.8%
46.2%
225,421
354,452
36.2%
0
0.0 2,818,199
16
2010
Latinos Blacks
2.5
0.5
Fort Bend County
700,000
3,400,578
4,092,459
Source: U.S. Census. Classifications based on Texas State Data Center Conventions. Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
585,375
The Demographic Revolution
Harris County total population
Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 17
1980
Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The Demographic Revolution
Harris County total population
Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 18
1990
Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The Demographic Revolution
Harris County total population
Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 19
2000
Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The Demographic Revolution
Harris County total population
Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 20
2010
Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The Demographic Revolution
Comparisons between Harris and Fort Bend counties in levels of education (2014) 100% 10.5 18.9
90% 80%
16.2
70% 60%
26.0
37.7 Respondents aged 25 years and older
50% 40%
25.4 30%
Post-graduate 23.1
College degree
20% 10%
Some college 22.1
0% Harris Co. (N=898)
21
14.6
HS diploma
5.7
Less than HS
Fort Bend Co. (N=449)
Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey (2014) Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The Demographic Revolution
Comparisons between Harris and Fort Bend counties in political party preferences (2014) 100% 90%
14.9 21.7
80% 70% 42.4 60%
36.9 Independent/Other/Don't know
50%
Republican Democrat
40% 30% 20%
41.4
42.6
Harris Co. (N=1048)
Fort Bend Co. (N=508)
10% 0%
22
Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey (2014) Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The Demographic Revolution
Percent of the population by age group and ethnicity in Harris County in 2012 Non-Hispanic Whites 79
78
76
75
75
All others
72
71
69 61
59
50 50 41
29 21
23
22
24
25
25
28
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2008-2012 ACS 5-year estimates Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
54
46 39
31
The Demographic Revolution
Assessments of ethnic relations in the Houston area, by ethnicity (1992-2014) 65 60
Percent rating "the relations among ethnic groups in the Houston area" as either "excellent" or "good."
59 51
50
PERCENT GIVING POSITIVE RATINGS
43 35
39
35 34
37
38
33
33
10
11
35
27
25
15
44
41 40
20
48
49
40
30
53 48
Anglos Latinos Blacks
45
27 21 14
10 5 0 92
24
53
54
55
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey (1992-2014) Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
04
05
06
07
08
09
12
13
14
The Demographic Revolution
The changing attitudes toward immigrants (2010-2014) 110 100
Undocumented immigrants are not a "very serious" problem.
Favor: "Granting illegal immigrants a path to legal citizenship, if they speak English and have no criminal record."
90
High ratings (6-10) on a scale measuring feelings about undocumented immigrants.
Immigrants to the U.S. generally contribute more to the economy than they take.
83 80
75 71
70
75
74
66
63
59
60 51
49
50 40
45
45
2014
2010
35 31
30
20 10 0 2010
25
2012
2014
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey (2010-2014) Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
2014
2010
2012
2012
2014
The Demographic Revolution
Percent of the population by age group and ethnicity in the United States in 2050 Non-Hispanic Whites 64
All others 64
62
61
59
58
57
56
56
54 50 50
36
26
38
39
41
42
43
44
46
53 47 44 36
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2012 National Population Projections, Alternative Net International Migration Series (Constant Series). Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The Demographic Revolution
Air and water quality Urban centers
Quality of Place Hiking, boating, birding
Positive evaluations of the Houston area as a place to live (2001-2014) 100 90
"How would you rate the Houston area in general as a place to live?" Fair/Poor
80
Excellent/Good
78
77
76
71
71
70
77
70 60 50 40 30
29
29
28
23
23
22
22
20 10
0
2001
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
“Compared to most other metropolitan areas in the country, would you say that the Houston area is a much better place, a slightly better place, a slightly worse place, or a much worse place in which to live?" 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Much/Slightly Worse
17
8 2007
9 2009
Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey (2001-2014) Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
90
89
86
85
78
2005
28
Much/Slightly Better
7 2011
6 2013
Quality of Place
Percent attending arts performances, in the total sample and by ethnicity (Arts Survey, 2012) 100 90
“During the past 12 months, did you attend any live performances in the arts, either professional or amateur, such as drama, dance, music or any other type of concert or performance?” Yes
80
No
70 61
58
60 50
60
56
54 46
44
42
39
40
40
30 20 10 0 Total Sample 29
Anglos
Blacks
Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Arts Survey (2012) © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Latinos
Asians
Quality of Place
Houston’s urban sprawl
Baltimore 0.6 million 81 sq. mi.
2.1 million 600 sq. mi.
Chicago 2.7 million 228 sq. mi.
Detroit 0.7 million 139 sq. mi.
Philadelphia 1.5 million 134 sq. mi.
30
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Quality of Place
The nine-county Houston metropolitan area
New Jersey 8.8 million 8,729 sq. mi.
5.8 million 9,434 sq. mi.
Massachusetts 6.6 million 10,550 sq. mi. 31
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Quality of Place
The divided preference for car-centered vs. transit-oriented developments (2009-2014) 70 58
60 52 50
50
47
50 51
47
50 51 49
51
51
47
47
47 44
46
39
40
30
20
10
0 A single-family residential area
An area with a mix A single-family of developments home with need to drive everywhere
2009, 2011, 2013
32
A smaller, more urbanized home within walking distance
2010, 2012, 2014
Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey (2009-2014) Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Spending more to expand existing highways
Spending more to improve rail and buses
2010, 2012, 2014
Quality of Place
Some preliminary differences between Houston and Copenhagen (2014) Houston Area Survey (2014)
Copenhagen Area Survey (2014)
100 88
90 77
80
69
70 60
84
64
61
60 54
50 40
40
31 30 20
6
10
5
0 Rating job opportunities as either "good" or "excellent".
33
"People who work Rating the urban Percent who did not Agree: "Most people Agree: "Religion is hard and live by the area as a "good" or use public transit at can be trusted." very important in rules are not getting "excellent" place in all in the past year. my life." a fair break these which to live. days."
Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey (2014), Kinder Institute Copenhagen Area Survey (2014) Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Quality of Place
Support for gay rights (1991-2014) 70
Favor: "Homosexuals being legally permitted to adopt children." 60
Agree: "Marriages between homosexuals should be given the same legal status as heterosexual marriages."
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS
50
47 40 37
37
30
38
43 33
38
32
31
35
28
27
47
45 43
42
40
27 20
17
10 91
34
51
49
93
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey (1991-2014) Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Quality of Place
Support for alternative sentencing for criminal and drug offenses (2010-2014)
Support for alternatives to the death penalty for persons convicted of firstdegree murder.
2010
54 65
2012 69
Agree that “Individuals in possession of small amounts of illegal drugs should be fined rather than sent to jail.”
2014
65 69 72
57
Favor: “Making marijuana legally available for medical purposes.”
65
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS 35
Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey (2010-2014) © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Quality of Place
90
Attitudes toward the term limits imposed on City of Houston elected officials (1997-2014) “Are you generally in favor or opposed to continuing the term limits placed on the Mayor and other elected city officials in Houston?” 100 90
If in favor: “Do you think the term limits should stay as they are, with office holders limited to three 2-year terms, or would it be better to have a limit of two 4-year terms?” Have a limit of two 4-year terms
Stay with three 2-year terms
80
PERCENT IN FAVOR OF TERM LIMITS
74 70 60
63
38%
73
49% 41%
50
37%
40
59%
30
55%
57%
49%
20 10 0 1997
36
70
2003
Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey (1997-2014) © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
2008
2014
Quality of Place
Today’s pro-growth agenda The Houston region needs to nurture a far more educated workforce and develop the research
The New Economy
centers that will fuel the new economy.
Houston needs to develop into a truly successful multiethnic society, one with equality of opportunity for all communities, all encouraged to participate
The Demographic Revolution
as full partners in shaping the region’s future.
The greater Houston metropolitan region needs to grow into a much more appealing urban destination, while accommodating an expected 3.5 million additional residents in the next 20 years.
Quality of Place
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