Risk assessment

COVENTRY UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF BUSINESS AND ENVIRONMENT DISASTER MANAGEMENT

RISK MANAGEMENT ASSESSMENT

By P. Kinsthwamba. Siani

2 February 2009

Coventry University Faculty of Business and Environment Disaster Management

TABLE OF CONTENT ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................................................... 3 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................. 4 OBJECTIVES .................................................................................................................................................. 5 1. CONCEPTS - DEFINITIONS ....................................................................................................................... 5 1.1. Hazard ...................................................................................................................................................... 5 1.2. Risk ........................................................................................................................................................... 5 1.3. Community................................................................................................................................................ 6 1.4. Vulnerability .............................................................................................................................................. 6 2.

CASE STUDY: EBOLA OUTBREAK IN CONGO (DRC) ........................................................................ 7

2.1. Country Location and profile ..................................................................................................................... 7 2.2. Country Climate ........................................................................................................................................ 7 2.3. Population and Languages ....................................................................................................................... 9 2.4. Health Profile ............................................................................................................................................ 9 2.5. Ebola background in Congo DRC ............................................................................................................ 9 2.6. Description of EBOLA ............................................................................................................................. 10 2.7. Risk of Ebola hazard............................................................................................................................... 10 2.8. Cause of vulnerability ............................................................................................................................. 11 2.9. Vulnerable communities ......................................................................................................................... 12 2.11. Capacity of the communities ................................................................................................................ 14 2.12. Ebola risk evaluation ............................................................................................................................ 14 3.

EBOLA STRATEGIES PLAN................................................................................................................. 15

3.1. Structural measures................................................................................................................................ 15 3.3. Risk assessment and Risk reduction ...................................................................................................... 16 3.4. Vulnerability shape ................................................................................................................................. 16 3.5. Funding Planning and Response ........................................................................................................... 16 3.6. Plans and auditing .................................................................................................................................. 16 3.7. Ebola outbreak Warning ......................................................................................................................... 16 3.10. Monitoring and evaluating plans ........................................................................................................... 17 4. CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................................................... 17 REFERENCE ................................................................................................................................................. 18 BIBLIOGRAPHY ............................................................................................................................................ 18 WEBSITE ....................................................................................................................................................... 19

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ABSTRACT Across the world, researches and media report that the toll of death and damage due to natural, industrial or human made disaster is increasing. The frequencies of disaster impact on human life, businesses and environment is also increasing and the cost for the recovery exceeds millions of money per year.

Mapping hazards, planning preparedness and mitigation measures could help to reduce the impact of disaster.

Disaster response is possible only if better decisions are made according to regulations in place and in concordance with government, communities and inter-organisations.

Preparedness, mitigation, response and recovery measures taken by the UK Civil Contingencies Act 2004 on Emergency management constitute one of the sources of information used for this report.

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INTRODUCTION Hazard resulting to disasters differ in that a number of them have a history of reoccurrence in specified regions and others with climate change, economic level, social and political discord, and advances in technology. Floods, Hurricanes, Landslide, Volcanoes, and Earthquake are the most know as natural hazards.

With the progress of the technology / science, a new type of man made hazards arise: Climate change, War, Terrorism, Cyber Terrorism, and Industrial incidents.

On top of the above hazards, another type of hazard emerges: environmental hazard (Viruses outbreak, diseases, AID, Drought, and much more).

The similarity that exists between these hazards is that humans have to normalise to such extremities and their originating hazards.

The capacity of communities to deal with the hazard will determine when, and how to prevent the impact of the event that has occurred or to occur, and who should be in charge.

Mitigation phase come between recovery process and the preparedness period before a disaster strikes (Lewis 1999, p.129). Suggesting strategies outlining a plan to deal with threat result to adopting a multi-disciplinary approach management and sharing responsibilities and roles for different categories of responders, and the implication of the whole community, identification of resources, designation of Gold team and the timetable for implementing the plan.

This essay tries to examine Ebola outbreak hazard in Congo DRC (see fig 1).

The task will consist on a summary literature review of concepts, the context and Ebola hazard in Congo DRC, what risk is there, the cause, who is vulnerable to the hazard and why. Section three will cover strategies plan management for preparedness, and a conclusion will end the essay.

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OBJECTIVES The aim is to identify Ebola hazard in Congo DRC, and recommend strategies to improve the safety of communities, and make them more aware of this hazard. To suggest a realistic management plan for responding when Ebola outbreak.

1. CONCEPTS - DEFINITIONS 1.1. Hazard According to Sorensen et al. (2006, p11) “… physical phenomena caused either by rapid or slow onset events having atmospheric, geologic and hydrologic origins on global, regional, national and local scales…”.

We consider that “…hazard can be physical or non physical, e.g. diseases…”, and may represent a serious breakdown in the sustainability and the disruption of economic and social progress of a specific community.

1.2. Risk Deborah Lupton (2007, p 5) states: “…Changes in the meanings and use of risk are associated with the emergence of modernity...” Modernity in this case to be associated to industrialised world ( Antony Giddens 1991, p14-15 & 1998, p23 -34).

David Alexander (2002) argues”… that vulnerability has a negative impact on social, economic, political, cultural and environmental…” D. Buckle (2009) states:”…Risk is a function of the hazard agent, the exposure of nations, communities or organisations reduced by their capacity to mitigate and recover from loss...”

Vulnerability is link to personal, political, environmental and developmental factors.

The risk of vulnerability for a society or environment is directly proportional to hazard, vulnerability, the strengths and resources available for a community to resist to the impact of the disaster.

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For this essay the concept risk to be considered as the result of the contact linking a hazard “Ebola” and the capacity of the community at risk within the described geographical space that are vulnerable to its impact.

R = VxH C

(R = risk,

V = vulnerability,

H = hazard ,

C = Capacity to resist)

1.3. Community Community to be define as administratively, spatially (communities in urban or rural areas), of interest, of function, of needs, created by a permanent, temporary/transitional disaster (communities in non-location specific disasters), considering participants as workers and politicians as members (P.Buckle, 2008/09).

1.4. Vulnerability Ben Wisner et al ( 2003, p11) defines vulnerability as “… the characteristics of a person or group and their situation that influence their capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from the impact of a natural hazard….”

Vulnerability involves a mixture of factors that fix the level of being at risk to a natural or non natural agent.

1.5. Characteristics of hazard Philip Buckle (2008/09), define the characteristics of a disaster as: “…the intersection of a hazard and a vulnerable population, with causes often being rooted in the structures and processes of society, affecting all aspects of life, including health, psycho-social, housing, infrastructure, economy, business, the environment and extending over many years, in which recovery proceeds needs change, and emerge planning therefore needs to be integrated and multi-dimensional and it needs to be critical and reflective...”

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2. CASE STUDY: EBOLA OUTBREAK IN CONGO (DRC) 2.1. Country Location and profile Congo DRC (former Zaire), is located in Central Africa (fig1). Bordering countries are: Angola, Burundi, Central African Republic, Congo (Brazzaville), Sudan, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia.

Fig1, Map of Africa (Source: http://www.yourchildlearns.com/africa_map.htm) Congo DRC is a vast country with immense and scandalous natural economic resources [Online] Available: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/country profiles/1076399.stm ) [January 2009].

Congo DRC is a tropical country, with a vegetation essentially tropical forest. The country covers 2.345 410 sq. km. equivalent to 905,063 sq. miles. Land area covers 2. 267. 600 sq km. The land varies from mountainous terraces, plateau, savannas, dense grasslands, and mountains. It has the world's second largest rainforest (18% of the planet's remaining tropical rainforest).

2.2. Country Climate The climate is essentially equatorial climate, hot and humid in much of the north and west, cooler and drier in the south central area and the east. The Congo Basin Forest constitutes the second largest rainforest on Earth (Fig 2) [Online]

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Available:http://www.greenpeace.org/international/news/world-bank-cuts-olam-funding121207 [January 2009].

Fig.2: Green area: Congo basin tropical forest

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2.3. Population and Languages The population is estimated at 58 million, 47.2% is urban population (UNDP Report 2006). Access to an improved water source: 46% (UNDP report 2004).

Access to improved sanitation: 30% (UNDP report 2004). About 70% is Christian.

Congo DRC is former Belgium colony where French is the official language beside four national languages: Lingala, Kikongo, Kiswahili, and Tchiluba.

2.4. Health Profile The country is subject to a various outbreaks; from cholera, re-emerging pathogens such as Marburg, Tuberculosis and Ebola, due to lack of adequate hygiene measures, insufficient water supplies, and deeper poverty.

2.5. Ebola background in Congo DRC The Ebola virus was first identified in a western equatorial province of Sudan and in a nearby region of Za誰re (now Congo DRC) in 1976 after significant epidemics in Yambuku in northern Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Period

Registered Cases

Registered Death

June and November 1976

318 cases

280 deaths (88%)

In 1995

315 cases,

250 deaths (79%).

October 2001 to December 2003

302 cases

254 deaths (84%).

09 January 2009

40 cases

13 deaths (32.5%)

Fig.3.Statistics of Ebola outbreak in Congo DRC. Recently in November 2008 Ebola outbreak cases are suspected in Mewka with 40 registered cases and 13 deaths.

A study, led by Magdalena Bermejo of the University of Barcelona, states that Ebola outbreak killed at least 5,500 wild animal and 25% of world's gorillas at a single site of M10DST ESSAY

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northwest Republic of Congo between 2001 and 2005. [Online] Available: http://news.mongabay.com/2006/1207-gorillas.html [January 2009].

The figure above shows a higher toll of death due to Ebola outbreak, and it is one of the important hazards in Congo DRC, representing a significant risk for human and animal communities.

2.6. Description of EBOLA The Ebola virus belongs to the Filoviridae family and is comprised of five distinct species: In Congo DRC, Ebola have been associated with large Ebola hemorrhagic fever (EHF) outbreaks in Africa with high fatality ratio (25–90%). The natural reservoir of the Ebola virus seems to reside in the rain forests of the African continent where Congo DRC is situated.

2.7. Risk of Ebola hazard Ebola virus is transmitted: 

by direct contact with the blood, secretions, organs or other body fluids of infected persons;



during burial ceremonies where mourners have direct contact with the body of the dead person;



by handling (dead and alive) of infected chimpanzees, gorillas, cynomolgus monkeys, forest antelopes; and



by health care workers treating Ebola patients.

The incubation period 2 to 21 days can result to a devastated community within 3 weeks.

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2.8. Cause of vulnerability Laboratory observation has shown that bats experimentally infected with Ebola do not die, and this has raised speculation that these mammals may play a role in maintaining the virus in the tropical forest.

Philip Buckle (2008/09) states”…What is equally clear is that bad development generates risks to people and disasters can impact harmfully on development projects and development gains…”

Geographic, social, belief, economic factors and political systems influence on how hazards affect human and it environment (See Fig.4).

Constant Political crisis and civil war, non access to vital resources (hygienic foods, medication and Information), isolation of most areas to major hospital, non Involvement of the community on decisions, belief that God protect, values and attitude toward hygienic advice are among the causes of high risk. The lack of preventive measures of safety, hazard mapping Unit and warning system put the whole community in front of real risk

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Infrastructure status:

Personal Parameters: gender, age, health, skills, income, lifestyle,

Geographic parameters: remoteness, topography, weather

coverage, accessibility, reliability

Community attributes: networks, amenities, conveniences

Personal and Community status

Economic parameters: Growth, decline employment levels, innovation

Demographic parameters: age structure, immigration, gender balance

Environmental parameters: sustainability, pollution, diversity

Vulnerability

Resilience

Fig.2. Elements of resilience and vulnerability (Inspired from: Assessing Resilience and Vulnerability, Principles, Strategies and Actions 2001, p15)

2.9. Vulnerable communities Physical environment (climate, vegetation, ecology, geology, forest and water use, etc.), access to: major road, rail, air, marine, telecommunications infrastructures, population and central/local government engagements determine the vulnerability of the populations. Isolated communities are vulnerable to Ebola hazard.

Rural communities are extremely dependent on the forest for their daily activities such as: hunting, fishing, agricultural land use, and clean water source. These lifelines are significantly dependent on each other. The community is also dependent on the availability of food, clothing, medical supplies and other personal items. Communities with limited income to meet essential needs: education level and language barrier are vulnerable. Socio-demographic and economic issues interconnected to the aged, the

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very young, the disabled, household income, unemployment, the resources available at the local government, on site ONG, influx on the security of a such community.

Traveller and tourists from overseas visiting wild species such: white rhino, monkey, okapi, etc‌, are vulnerable. Local and International workers (People affected by Ebola, Dr, Nurses, Volunteer helper, burial personal) are among risky communities.

2.10. Vulnerability data

Top 10 natural disasters for the period from 1999 to 2008 in Congo DRC sorted by people affected

Date

Total of Affected people

Epidemic

Dec-02

500000

Volcano

17/01/2002

110400

Flood

29/11/1999

78000

Wind Storm

08/03/2006

75066

Epidemic

27/09/2004

42564

Epidemic

Dec-02

30878

Wind Storm

02/02/2003

22500

Epidemic

Jun-03

13072

Earthquake

03/02/2008

13037

Flood

14/12/2001

13000

Disaster

Source: "EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database (Apr-16-2008) www.emdat.net - UniversitĂŠ Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium"

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2.11. Capacity of the communities

The population of Congo DRC is estimated at 58 million. Only 47.2% is urban (UNDP Report 2006); 46% access to an improved water source (UNDP report 2004); 30% access to improved sanitation (UNDP report 2004). There is no viable medical structures in areas where Ebola outbreak. Communities are unable to influence political decision.

Life condition due to: lack of resources, lack of protection/prevention (health/life insurance cover), conducts to a lack of resilience/resistance to the agent.

Congo DRC does not have a real policy or Emergency Unit in charge of risk assessment, mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. The Government try to collaborate with existing humanitarian organisations, which are in charge of: 

Disaster and emergency services;



Emergency measures preparedness;



Contact with international disaster and emergency organizations;



Training of personnel such as Red Cross;



Mapping of hazards and risks in communities.

2.12. Ebola risk evaluation

Tropical zone is an environmental factor of Ebola outbreak in Congo DRC. Ebola has a high frequency of occurrence, wide-spread socio-economic and psychological impact on population. The medical assistance that intervenes to stop the propagation has proved to be temporal, as Ebola outbreaks in same sites. To decrease the risk of Ebola damage to human or wild species such gorillas, the development of Ebola assessment planning will do the job, and provides a considerable outstanding risk that will need to be address by mitigation strategies.

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3. EBOLA STRATEGIES PLAN

Keith Smith (2004, p36) states:”…Risk can not be eliminated, so it has to be assessed and managed in order to reduce disaster…” Assessment need to be quantitatively or qualitatively. Quantitative risk assessment to be expressed as: Hazard (probability) x Loss (expected) Risk = Preparedness (loss mitigation) Individual and organisation should play a role in risk assessment to reduce the treats of Ebola, by contributing on structural or unstructured measures.

3.1. Structural measures Medical Installation aims at alleviating Ebola outbreak propagation and impact by isolating affected areas, rapid treatment of Ebola cases, and medication supplies storage in different medical centre across the country.

The frequency of Ebola outbreak and it damage point out that structural measures can not prevent or reduce the impact of Ebola. A better result can be complete through the establishment of an emergency planning team linking the authorities, organisations and the whole community.

3.2. Emergency Planning The UK Civil Contingency Act 2004 defines the composition, the roles and responsibilities of an emergency team. The team should have category 1 and 2 responders in charge of: coordination, spreading information, and team working among category and voluntary organisations involved in preparedness and response to emergency. It is responsible for assessing risk, elaborating plans, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of each plan.

Legislation is also required restricting hunting in suspect areas. There is a need for each provinces Emergency team to identify in their master plan all areas that are threatened

by Ebola outbreak.

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3.3. Risk assessment and Risk reduction While determining the aim, the purpose and the outcomes of their plans and actions to take, Emergency team need to consider without ambiguity all related social, economic, belief, environmental and political factors that exposure the population at risk of Ebola.

3.4. Vulnerability shape Responder of Category 1 should take in account the individual needs of communities’ members in the concerned area (The Civil Contingency Act 2004, p22). Ebola outbreak planning requires an appropriate risk management by conducting a vulnerability assessment of vulnerable population to address measures that reduce the level of vulnerability.

3.5. Funding Planning and Response Preparedness or Response to a disaster is expensive. Emergency team has the responsibility to inventory resources required in designing plans, maintenance and response action. Funds can be generated from the local authority and from voluntary organisations.

3.6. Plans and auditing Plans need to be set up and implemented according to the nature of risks they were designed. They should be audited and tested on regular basis, to insure their efficiency.

Plans used in previous types of emergency, must be check in deep detail to avoid failure.

Past experiences and lessons learned from past emergency are useful for a better planning and response strategies.

3.7. Ebola outbreak Warning Early Ebola warning system is used to reduce the impact. Emergency plans should contain an efficient Ebola warning system and manage a social network unity to prevent or decrease the impact of Ebola.

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3.8. Education, training and awareness programmes Creation and maintenance of appropriate information channel to support risk management decision making is vital. Constant communication with the public on the risk will contribute on reducing it impact. Education session of formal and non-formal institutions is needed.

3.9. Communities Involvement Explaining the impacts of Ebola will persuade Leader, and all communities to participate fully in risk management process and emergency planning. Plans are successful when they involve those exposed to the hazard. Building a strong commitment to the process of risk management will move up public awareness and involvement during preparedness, mitigation, response, recovery, and strengthen resilience to the Ebola.

3.10. Monitoring and evaluating plans Repeated checks to monitor and evaluate changes in risk assessment, vulnerability, community participation, acquisition and use of resources, legislation and planning strategies need to be done to guard against Ebola outbreak.

4. CONCLUSION Structural or non structural measures are not capable of preventing the occurrence of Ebola outbreak but they try to prevent the impact. The capacity of at risk communities, the application of emergency preparedness, mitigation, response and relief efforts are limited due to environmental, social, belief, political instability, economic and wars.

Internal migration due to war and economic reasons, and education level obstructs the implementation of instrument that can be in charge of public awareness. On top of what is says above, Congo DRC is not ready to allocate funds for risk mapping and emergency planning, which expose population to a high risk of Ebola outbreak.

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REFERENCE J. Sorensen, T. Vedeld, M. Haug ( 2006): Natural Hazards and Disasters- Drawing on the international experience from disaster reduction in developing countries, Norwegian Institute for Urban and Regional Research (NIBR).

James Lewis, (1999): Development in Disaster Prone Places- Studies of Vulnerability: Intermediate Technology publications Deborah Lupton (2007): Risk, Routledge, Taylor & francis Group, 11 New Fetter Lane, London EC4p 4EE. th

29 West 35 Street, New York NY 10001 Giddens, A. (1990): The consequences of modernity. Cambridge: Polity Press Giddens, A. (1998): Risk society: The context of British politics, In Franklin, J., Cambridge: Polity Press.

Ben Wisner, Piers Blaikie, Terry Cannon & Ian Davis (2004): At Risk- Natural Hazards, Peoples Vulnerability and Disasters: Second Edition: Routledge , London and New York David Alexander (2002): Natural Disasters. CRC Press Taylor & Francis Group, 270madison Avenue New York, NY 10016 P.Buckle, (2008/09): M10DST: Risk Assessment, Module Notes, Coventry University.

Philip Buckle et al. (2001): Guidelines: Assessing Resilience & Vulnerability: Principles, Strategies & Actions, The Australian Journal of Emergency Management.

BIBLIOGRAPHY Ronald J. Daniels et al (2006 ): On Risk and Disaster; Lessons from Hurricane Katrina. University of Pennsylvania Press, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 191044112 Ronald Mountain (2007/2008), M01DST Disaster Theories: Module notes, Coventry University UK Government (2004), Emergency Preparedness: Guidance on Part1of the Civil Contingencies ( Act 2004).

Micheal K. Lindell & all (2004), Facing the Unexpected: Disaster Preparedness and Response in United States Ronald W. Perry, Michael K. Lindell and all (2004), Facing the Unexpected: Disaster Preparedness and Response in United States. Joseph Henry Press, Washington, D.C.

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David Alexander (2004): Natural Disaster. CRC Press Taylor & Francis Group, 270 Madison Avenue New York, NY 10016 Greg Bankoff, et al. (2004): Mapping Vulnerability- Disasters, Development & People: Earthscan UK, USA Jorn Birkman (2006): Measuring Vulnerability to Natural Hazards-Towards Disaster Resilient Societies: United Nations University Press, Tokyo, New York, Paris Keith Smith, 2004: Environmental Hazards: Assessing Risk and Reducing Disasters, Fourth Edition, Routledge, London and New York Greg Bankoff (2003): Cultures of Disaster- Society and Natural Hazard in the Philippines: RoutledgeCurzon, London and New York Jonh R. Lindsay (2003): An Assessment of Natural Hazards and Disasters in Canada. Kluwer Academic Publishers, 3300 AA Dordrecht, The Netherlands James K.Mitchell (1996): The long road to recovery: Community responses to industrial disaster. United Nations University Press, 53-70, Jingumae 5 窶田hrome, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo 150, Japan Fred G. Bell (2003): Geological Hazards: Their Assessment, Avoidance and Mitigation, Routledge London.

WEBSITE http://www.who.int/csr/don/archive/country/cog/en/ http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/country profiles/1076399.stm ) http://www.who.int/hac/crises/cod/background/DRCongo_July07.pdf http://www.yourchildlearns.com/africa_map.htm http://news.mongabay.com/2006/1207-gorillas.html http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2823.htm http://www.greenpeace.org/international/news/world-bank-cuts-olam-funding-121207 http://www.ukresilience.info/upload/assets/www.ukresilience.info/ep_chap_08.pdf

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