Tomorrow’s Risk Models & Purpose Driven Leadership
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10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL
Photo: LOOP City is a master plan for the suburbs of Copenhagen by BIG
THE BIG RE-THINK: THE WORLD 2030+
THE EVOLUTION OF CONSUMPTION
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TIME LINE
Meaningful Consumption Happiness & Wellbeing
2020+ The Good Life Society & Circular Economy
Conscious Capitalism Open Dialogue & Engagement
2000+ The Network Society & Green Growth
Access & Services
Individualisation (ME)
90s-00s Knowledge Society & Sustainability
Agility & Expertise
Status
70s-80s Post-Modernism & Early Environmentalism
Automation
Materialism
50s-60s Mass Consumption & Early Urbanisation
Product is King
Social Attachment
20s-40s Keynesianism & New Deal
Specialisation
Security
1910s Militarism & Fordism (Bernays)
More Choice
Sustenance
Pre - 1900 Post-Industrialisation
Basic Products
INDIVIDUAL
SOCIETY
The Evolution of Consumption – Kjaer Global © 2013
Mobility & Diversity
CORPORATE
Human history, hasn’t just been a nice even curve of constant progress, but rather, a journey of lessons to be learned 10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL
RISK & OPPORTUNITIES
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Hotspring - Photo: Kjaer Global FamilyIcelandic HolidayNatural in Norway - Photo: Harald Brekke
San Francisco Museum of Modern Art - Rendering: Snøhetta
Over Consumption and Hyper Connectivity
Ethics and Transparency 10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL
POLL QUESTION 1
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Q: HOW WILL BUSINESS PERFORMANCE BE MEASURED BY 2020?
The focus will be on: XXX
a)Profit 4 Corners House by Avanto Architects
b)People (Social Capital) and Planet (Sustainability) a)Purpose b)By all 4: People, Planet, Purpose and then Profit
10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL
NEW PERFORMANCE PARAMETERS
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The National Gallery London and GE - Photo: Harald Brekke
Only 1 in 5 brands globally are perceived as making a meaningful difference to people's lives 10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL
THE ‘4P’ BUSINESS MODEL
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* PEOPLE * PLANET * PURPOSE and then * PROFIT 10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL
POLL QUESTION 2
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Q: 1. ARE YOU A LEFT OR A RIGHT BRAIN THINKER?
a) I am a Left Brain thinker (Factual, Logical, Pragmatic) XXX
b) I am a Right Brain thinker (Intuitive, Visionary, ‘Possibilist’) 4 Corners House by Avanto Architects
c) I mostly use both Left and Right thinking
10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL
MULTIDIMENSIONAL THINKING
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4. SPIRITUAL 3. EMOTIONAL
2. SOCIAL
3. EMOTIONAL RIGHT
• Facts • Logic • Pragmatist
• Intuition • Vision • Possibilist
1. SCIENTIFIC
4. SPIRITUAL
1. SCIENTIFIC
Whole Brain Thinking – Kjaer Global © 2013
2. SOCIAL
LEFT
To understand how the world is interconnected, it is essential to embrace all dimensions 10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL
TREND ATLAS 2030+
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QUALITY OF LIFE
UNIVERSAL VALUES Trend Atlas – Kjaer Global © 2012
4. SPIRITUAL The Good Life
Mindfulness
POSITIVE WELLBEING 3. EMOTIONAL
Active Leisure
Foodie Culture
Happiness Hunting
Enoughism
The Big Society
Empathic Leadership
MEANINGFUL EXPERIENCES
Alternative Treatments
Cultural Consumption
‘Deep’ Storytelling
Collaborative Consumption
MULTI-CHANNEL COMMUNICATION
Inclusive Design
A BETTER WORLD
The Real Thing
Intelligent Reduction
Biomimicry
Considered Consumption
Social Entrepreneurship
PATCHWORK SOCIETY
Good Cause
One Planet Living
CARING ORGANISATIONS
2. SOCIAL Cloud Intelligence
Dialogue Driven
Education 4.0
Transmedia Platforms
No Age Society
TECHNOLOGY
Global Citizens
Free-Range Parents
Redefined Families
ECONOMIC DRIVERS
Digital Natives
Female Empowerment
Creative Class
Work/Life Balance
Social Capital
Learning Communities
POLITICS & LEGISLATIONS
Brand Convenience Engagement Society
ENVIRONMENT
1. SCIENTIFIC Bio Revolution
Internet of Things
Clean Tech
New Models
Turbulent Markets
Rising Economies
Innovation Hubs
Resource Shortage
Soft Power
Health Glocalisation Challenges
Public Policies
Total Transparency
Climate Change
Crowded Planet
Urbanisation
Bio Diversity
Alternative Energies
10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL
KEY SOCIETY TRENDS
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4. SPIRITUAL
* RADICAL OPENNESS - Total Transparency & Reputation Management Sharing Culture
* GREEN GROWTH - Crowded Planet & Resource Shortage
Circular Economy
Betapreneurship
New Models
Purpose Driven
* THE GLOBAL BRAIN - Data Deluge & Meaningful Analytics
3. EMOTIONAL
Global Citizens Disruptive Innovation
2. SOCIAL
Green Growth
Crowded Planet
Social Capital
* SMART LIVING - Real-time Solutions & ‘Mini-Me’
Shared Value
The Global Brain
Positive Psychology
Resource Shortage
* NEW MODELS - Circular Model & Sharing Culture Meaningful Storytelling
Data Deluge Meaningful Analytics
Real-time Solutions Total Transparency
1. SCIENTIFIC
Smart Living
‘Mini-Me’
Radical Openness
Reputation Management
* BETAPRENEURSHIP - Disruptive Innovation & Global Citizens
The Good Life
* SOCIAL CAPITAL - Shared Value & Purpose Driven * THE GOOD LIFE - Positive Psychology & Meaningful Storytelling 10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL
RADICAL OPENNESS – Total Transparency & Reputation Management
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Source: ttld.studio32.com
Globally, 65% of people said transparent and honest business practices are key to corporate reputation 10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL
POLL QUESTION 3
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Q: HOW MANY SUSTAINABILITY INITIATIVES DID YOU ENGAGE WITH IN 2012-2013?
a) 1-2 XXX
b) More 4 Corners House by Avanto Architects
a) None
10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL
GREEN GROWTH – Crowded Planet & Resource Shortage
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Photo: Samsø Energy Academy Denmark
In 2012, the number of companies that profited from sustainability initiatives climbed from 23% to 37% 10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL
THE GLOBAL BRAIN – Data Deluge & Meaningful Analytics
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’Big Data’ intelligence brings huge opportunities for positive change and green growth 10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL
SMART LIVING – Real-time Solutions & ‘Mini-Me’
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Future bathroom - Dragonfly Media The Future Laboratory
Electrolux SmartPlate iRobot Roomba Pet Series Vacuum Cleaner
Google Glass
The Nest Learning Thermostat
Smart living is the driver of a more sustainable future, inviting business and people to collaborate 10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL
NEW MODELS – Circular Economy & Sharing Culture
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Source: thegreatrecovery.com 2013
The Circular Economy represents a potential material cost-savings of $340 to $380 billion annually in the EU 10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL
POLL QUESTION 4
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Q: WILL A ‘CIRCULAR ECONOMY’ TAKE SUSTAINABILITY TO THE NEXT LEVEL?
a) Yes, recycling, reusing and sharing is key to a sustainable future XXX
b) No, because Europe don’t have the infrastructure for this to happen 4 Corners House by Avanto Architects
a) Maybe, but we need enabling polices to make it happen
10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL
BETAPRENEURSHIP – Disruptive Innovation & Global Citizens
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1985-2010 GLOBAL WORKFORCE 2.0
Source: Global Talent Rally, CIFS, 2010
Source: bteam.org
2010-2020 GLOBAL WORKFORCE 3.0
Entrepreneurship is key to autonomy, as well as the welfare state, jobs, innovation and competitiveness 10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL
SOCIAL CAPITAL – Shared Value & Purpose Driven
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Sense of Purpose Photograph by David McLain, National Geographic
Sense of Purpose Photograph by David McLain, National Geographic
Source: socialprogressimpoerative.com
Social capital is not just the sum of the institutions which underpin a society – it is the glue that holds them together 10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL
THE GOOD LIFE – Positive Psychology & Meaningful Storytelling
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Photo: The School of Life London
Photo: The School of Life London
As the definition of the ‘Good Life’ goes public, we start to question the conventional way of measuring success 10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL
POLL QUESTION 5
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Q: WILL GOVERNMENTS ADOPT A ‘GROSS NATIONAL WELLBEING’ INDEX BY 2030?
a) Absolutely XXX
b) Maybe 4 Corners House by Avanto Architects
c) Not at all
10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL
THE ‘4P’ BUSINESS MODEL
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External Drivers
CREATIVE COLLABORATORS
GLOBAL SUSTAINERS INNOVATIVE Betapreneurship
AUTO-ANALYTICS Smart Living
DISRUPTIVE Sharing Culture
COMMUNITY Social Capital
People
Infastructure & Performance
Profit
THE
4Ps
INTERCONNECTIVITY The Global Brain
Planet Culture and Meaning
Purpose ENGAGEMENT
The Good Life Mindset Map 2013 © Kjaer Global
ANTIFRAGILE Green Growth
TRUST Radical Openness
‘GOOD LIFE’ BUILDERS
TECHNOLOGY OPTIMISERS Internal Drivers
10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL
CONCLUSION
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Photo: The Treehotel in Harads North Sweden
Winners of the future will be the organisations that are agile enough to adopt the ‘4Ps’ 10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL
JOIN OUR COMMUNITY – kjaer-global.com
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CONTACT ME: alk@kjaer-global.com
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My ‘TRENDS MANAGEMENT TOOLKITS’ book is published by Palgrave Macmillan Business in 2014 10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL