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300 mm: A Look Forward

by Dean W. Freeman, Principal Analyst, Klaus-Dieter Rinnen, Director and Chief Analyst, Gartner DataQuest

The 300-mm era is beginning to emerge as the industry moves into a new millennium. After an aggressive start and a near stop due to an industry slowdown, 300-mm production fabs are scheduled to come on line in the year 2001. It is anticipated that the growth of 300-mm semiconductor equipment shipments will be strong over the next five years, growing from approx imately five percent of the total semiconductor equipment shipments in the year 2000 to over 60 percent of the total shipments in 2005. While this seems like strong rapid growth, it fits the industry growth curves for the introduction of the nextgeneration wafer size for both equipment sales and the percentage of 300-mm wafers of the total silicon. While this seems like strong rapid growth, it fits within the historical industry growth curves for the introduction of the next generation wafer size and growth of semiconductor equipment sales. It is unlikely that the first phase of 300-mm growth will be affected.

Introduction

The industry has been anticipating the first 300-mm production fabs for nearly three years. The initial estimated dates of first silicon in mass production in the 1998 time frame have given way to a more gradual introduction that has the first production fabs set to come on line in 2001. While this delay has been frustrating to some, it has enabled the industry to develop a more robust set of 300-mm equipment, which might actually accelerate the ramp of 300mm fabs.

In previous introductions of wafer sizes one semiconductor manufacturer typically championed the work. At 150 mm, Intel championed the work, while at 200 mm, IBM lead the way. These manufacturers suffered through the immaturity of early tool sets and shouldered a significant portion of much of the development cost for the new equipment sets. At 300 mm, a much different model developed. Several industrial consortiums emerged. Sematech, I300I, and Selete were the proving grounds for the new 300-mm equipment, developing standards, and moving the product development stage from the fabs to the consortiums. The semiconductor manufacturers did 6

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not provide the capital for the development of the new tool sets; instead, they placed the burden upon the semiconductor equipment makers. This model, along with some other factors such as linewidth shrinks and industry slowdown, has produced a much more mature equipment set than the industry experienced at 150 mm and 200 mm. In some cases, the overall equipment effectiveness (OEE) already exceeds that of the 200-mm tool set. This mature tool set has enabled some of the early pilot lines to come on line almost as quickly as they would have with a 200-mm tool set, with reported yields of 300 mm comparable to that of a 200-mm fab line.

Economics

An article cannot be written on the business aspects of 300 mm without discussing the increased area of the 300-mm wafer, as well as the potential for increased die output. The well-publicized 2.25 area increase can yield greater than 2.25 times the number of die produced per wafer, thus producing greater than a 125 percent increase in die output per wafer. If we make a simple extrapolation, we can observe in Figure 1 that a 300-mm fab needs only 50 percent of the wafer starts of a 200-mm fab to achieve an equivalent output of die each month. Therefore, some of the 300 mm 5,000 wafer starts per month pilot lines that are coming on line have the capability of producing the equivalent of greater than 10,000 200-mm wafers each month.

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F i g u re 1: Il lust rates the n umber of 300 mm wafers star ts and the equivalent 200 mm wa fer star t s .

F i g u re 3: Wafer demand by 2005.

300-mm production costs at 0.13 µm are currently estimated between 70 to 80 percent higher per wafer than for 200-mm wafers, based upon Sematech numbers.

Using a die size of approximately 115 mm2, one could expect a cost reduction in the range of 24 percent per die with equivalent yields to that of a 200-mm fab. The cost reduction per die tied together with the potential for much greater capacity is a very compelling reason to move to 300-mm production. This might result in a reduction in the 200 mm fabs projected to start up in the next few years; however, each fab decision is dependent upon the company’s economic situation and whether or not the firm can afford the capital needed to build a 300 mm facility.

Figure 2 below illustrates the wafer generation life cycle.

At this point in time it appears that the 300-mm régime will follow 200 mm by about 10 to 12 years,

with 300 mm use peaking in the 2012 time frame.

While the industry is just starting on 300-mm production, based upon this curve, it is time to begin considering the move to the next wafer size. The question of the next-generation wafer size should be answered by the industry in the next three to five years.

Figures 3 and 4 illustrate a more near-term view of the anticipated 300-mm silicon production through 2005.

Silicon demand for 300 mm wafers is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 80 percent from 2000 through 2005. By 2005 it is expected that 300-mm wafers will make up over 17 percent of the wafers shipped to the semiconductor manufacturers.

With the influence of 300 mm, silicon will grow at a CAGR of 11.1 percent for total MSI of silicon over the

F i g u re 2: Waf er generation life cycle. Wafer si ze den otes when peak usage i s expected .

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F i g u re 5. 300 mm equip ment as a perc entage of tot al semic onduct or F i g u re 4: 300-mm fabs scheduled to come on line, 1998 through 2002.

1999–2005 time frame. The bulk of this growth can be attributed to the 300-mm wafers. This is estimated to be approximately 13.6 million 300-mm wafers in 2005.

Wafer Fab Equipment

The current fab count for 300 mm shows three fabs in calendar year 2000, one production and two pilot line.

In 2001, eight fabs are scheduled to begin production, two pilot lines and six production fabs. In the year 2002, there are currently 14 fabs scheduled to begin production. There is a high probability that not all of the 2002 fabs will be completed, as the industry is predicted to be entering a slowdown due to excess capacity. There is a good probability that some of these fabs will be built as shells, ready to be completed during the next industry up cycle.

In calendar year 2000 it is estimated that 300-mm spending reached approximately $ 2 billion or about six percent of the total spent on semiconductor equipment.

In 2001 this number is projected to rise to 17 percent of the total spent on semiconductor equipment rising to between $ 6-6.5 billion. In the year 2005, it is estimated that 300-mm spending will be 65 percent of semiconductor equipment spending, or close to $ 36 billion dollars.

While slowdowns in capital spending are foreseen in 2001, 300-mm equipment purchases are not likely to be affected. This will be due, in part, to the need for companies to complete their learning curves and move into the initial production runs, as well as be competitively poised for the 300-mm era. However, as the industry moves into 2002 and early 2003, 300-mm sales will be affected if the industry moves into over capacity.

As the industry moves forward into the next upturn, 8

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equi pmen t s ales .

300 mm will be the predominent wafer size driving the industry forward as the demand for devices return.

While 300-mm equipment requirements will be spread across all equipment segments, there are several segments in which 300-mm will have greater impact. Factory automation and process control are two very obvious beneficiaries. Factory automation hardware benefits from the difficulty in manually handling 300-mm substrates.

Factory automation software should also grow as the drive to make the large capital investments more efficient gains momentum. Process control will benefit from the need to have greater, on-board integrated measurement capabilities and the need for closed-loop process feedback to protect the increased value of the 300-mm wafers.

Most 300-mm capacity should be designated for 0.13 µm production. Copper low- κ tools and their associated metrology segments will see increased growth as this technology node emerges.

Summary

The industry is moving rapidly into the 300-mm era.

By the year 2005, 17 percent of the total silicon manufactured and 60 percent of the capital spent on semiconductor equipment will be allocated for 300 mm.

Process control, factory automation, as well as processes critical to 0.13 µm technology, will benefit as a result of 300 mm wafer fabrication. The speed at which 300 mm will be implemented will continue to be driven by the economics of wafer processing and the need for increased wafer start capacity. 300 mm investments should not be affected in 2001 by the current industry downturn while the industry moves through its initial 300-mm production learning phase. As the industry moves out of the current slowdown, 300-mm investment should lead the way into the next cycle.