Vol. 29 | No. 5
Republic of Korea
Economic Bulletin The Green Book : Current Economic Trends Overview
3
1. Global economy
4
2. Private consumption
8
3. Facility investment
12
4. Construction investment
14
5. Exports and imports (customs clearance basis)
16
6. Industrial activity
18
7. Service sector activity
20
8. Employment
22
9. Financial markets
24
9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4
Stock market Exchange rate Bond market Money supply & money market
10. Balance of payments
28
11. Prices and international commodity prices
30
11.1 Prices 11.2 International oil and commodity prices 12. Real estate market
34
12.1 Housing market 12.2 Land market 13. Composite indexes of business cycle indicators
Policy Issues
38
40
Korea, European Union kick off FTA talks
Economic News Briefing
45
Statistical Appendices
51
The Green Book Current Economic Trends
Overview The recent Korean economy continued growth mostly in line with the forecast of lower growth in the first half and higher in the second. In specific, domestic demand indicators such as consumption and investment gradually improved while exports maintaining double digit growth. The first quarter private consumption (preliminary) grew 4.0 percent year-on-year led by durable goods including automobiles. Facility investment jumped 10.3 percent in the first quarter on the back of robust investment in machinery. Construction investment growth expanded. Exports (customs clearance basis, current) maintained double digit growth on solid demand from Japan, the Eurozone and China. However, current account posted a deficit in March due to seasonal factors such as dividend payment in December. Manufacturing production was slightly modest affected by inventory adjustment in semiconductor industry and output cut by the audio and video and telecommunications industries. However, services and construction indicated good performance. Industrial activity overall moderately picked up. Jobs growth has continued to expand since the beginning of the year driven by robust services. Consumer prices continuously stabilized due to stable prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products, despite a public transportation fare increase in the Seoul metropolitan area. The Korean economy in 2007 is expected to expand a mid 4 percent provided external conditions do not deteriorate sharply amid a trend of lower growth in the first half and higher in the second. The government will focus on macroeconomic and fine-tuning measures. In specific, it will closely examine domestic demand trend to support growth mostly in line with potential. The government will continue its endeavor to expand growth engines by improving the business environment and strengthening competitiveness of the service industry. The government will also enhance efforts to compensate the sluggish construction investment in the private sector.
Economic Bulletin
3
1. Global economy The global economy maintained solid growth on the back of growth in Japan, the eurozone and China, despite further moderation of the US economic growth rate. However, downside risks exist such as continuing moderation of the US economy, Chinese additional tightening measures and a probability of interest rate rise in the eurozone.
US
The US economy in the first quarter hovered below its growth potential for four consecutive months, posting GDP growth (preliminary) of 1.3 percent, the lowest in four years. The lower than expected (1.7-1.8%) growth was attributable to continuing sluggishness of the housing market and high comparison base of exports set in the previous quarter. Exports grew 10.6 percent in the previous quarter and declined 1.2 percent in the first quarter. Business investment reversed its course to post a growth, indicating a sign of economic recovery. Consumer spending moderated from the previous quarter, but is assessed to continue upward trend. The core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator index grew 2.2 percent due to increase in services fee and strong international raw material prices. Accordingly, an interest rate cut is not likely. (Percentage change from previous period) 2006
Real GDP
1
2007
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Feb
Mar
3.4
5.6
2.6
2.0
2.5
1.3
-
-
- Personal consumption expenditure
3.2
4.8
2.6
2.8
4.2
3.8
-
-
- Corporate fixed investment
7.4
13.7
4.4
10.0
-3.1
2.0
-
-
- Construction investment for housing
-4.2
-0.3
-11.1
-18.7
-19.8
-17.0
-
-
Industrial production
4.0
5.0
6.5
4.0
-1.2
2.6
0.8
-0.2
Retail sales
6.3
3.2
0.7
0.9
0.2
1.4
0.5
0.7
New non-farm payroll employment (q-o-q, thousand)
2,263
755
371
606
531
455
113
180
New home sales
-17.6
-13.3
-1.0
-8.4
-1.6
-13.7
-4.2
2.6
2.5
2.1
2.5
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.5
Core consumer prices (y-o-y, %) 1. Annualized rate
4
May 2007
1-1
US GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate) Source: US Department of Commerce
1-2
US non-farm payroll employment (m-o-m change) Source: US Department of Labor
1-3
US federal funds rate and consumer prices Source: US Federal Reserve Board & Department of Labor
Economic Bulletin
5
China
The Chinese economy achieved a high growth of 11.1 percent year-on-year in the first quarter on the back of expansion in net exports and retail sales as well as robust investment in fixed asset investment. The People’s Bank of China raised the reserve requirements of banks twice in April to 11.0 percent due to excessive liquidity and accelerating consumer prices. (Percentage change from same period in previous period) 2006
2007
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Feb
Mar
Real GDP
10.7
10.3
11.3
10.4
10.4
11.1
-
-
Fixed asset investment (accumulated)
24.5
29.8
31.3
28.2
24.5
25.3
23.4
25.3
Retail sales
13.7
12.8
13.9
13.8
14.3
14.9
16.9
15.3
Industrial production
16.6
16.7
18.0
16.2
14.8
18.3
12.6
17.6
Exports
27.2
26.6
24.1
28.7
29.1
27.8
51.7
6.9
Consumer prices
1.5
1.2
1.3
1.3
2.0
2.7
2.7
3.3
Japan
Amid still weak private consumption increase, core consumer prices (excluding fresh food) in March declined for two consecutive months due to stabilizing international oil prices. A concern on returning to deflation was raised accordingly. (Percentage change from previous period) 2006 Annual
Q1
Q2
2007 Q3
Q4
Q1
Feb
Mar
Real GDP
2.2
0.7
0.3
0.1
1.3
-
-
-
Industrial production
4.8
0.4
1.3
1.4
2.0
1.3
0.7
-0.6
Retail sales
0.2
2.0
-0.8
-0.8
-0.7
1.9
-0.9
-0.7
Exports (y-o-y, %)
14.6
17.6
14.7
15.6
11.2
12.5
9.7
10.2
Core consumer prices (y-o-y, %)
0.1
-0.0
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.3
Eurozone
Amid continued economic expansion and relatively stable prices, the European Central Bank kept its key interest rate intact at 3.75 percent on April 12. Despite the strong euro, robust exports continued. The exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar hit a record 1.3682 dollar intraday on April 27, which was the highest since December 2004. (Percentage change from previous period) 2005
2006
2007
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan
Feb
Mar
Real GDP
1.4
2.6
0.8
1.0
0.5
0.9
-
-
-
Industrial production
1.3
3.8
1.0
1.3
1.0
0.5
-0.5
0.6
-
Retail sales
1.4
1.6
0.1
0.5
0.8
0.6
-0.8
0.3
-
Exports (y-o-y, %)
7.7
11.2
15.8
9.4
8.0
11.6
11.8
10.3
-
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %)
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.2
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.9
6
May 2007
1-4
China’s GDP and fixed asset investment Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
1-5
Japan's GDP growth Source: Cabinet Office & Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan
1-6
Eurozone GDP growth and industrial production Source: Eurostat
Economic Bulletin
7
2. Private consumption The pace of private consumption growth slightly expanded in the first quarter of 2007 (preliminary GDP), recovering 4 percent range growth rate. It expanded 4.0 percent year-onyear, or 1.3 percent from the previous quarter.
Private consumption (y-o-y, %): 5.2 (Q1 2006)
4.1 (Q2)
(SA*, q-o-q, %): 1.2 (Q1 2006) * SA: seasonally adjusted
4.0 (Q3)
0.6 (Q2)
3.7 (Q4)
0.9 (Q3)
4.0 (Q1 2007)
1.0 (Q4)
1.3 (Q1 2007)
Consumer goods sales in March rose 7.3 percent year-on-year albeit slightly moderated from the previous month when the Lunar New year holidays had greatly contributed to the rising sales. Durable goods sales led by air-conditioners and computers were robust while semidurable goods and non-durable goods sales growth slightly reduced. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2005
2006
Annual Annual
2007
Mar
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q11
Jan
Feb1
Mar1
Consumer goods sales
4.1
4.7
5.3
5.3
6.1
2.9
4.5
7.2
2.7
12.1
7.3
(Seasonally adjusted)
-
-
1.7
0.0
1.9
-0.2
3.0
2.6
0.4
2.2
-0.3
6.5
11.0
11.7
11.5
11.3
11.4
9.6
17.0
21.2
12.3
17.5
- Durable goods
2
3
9.5
8.1
21.6
22.6
8.1
4.2
1.3
9.8
17.0
5.5
7.6
- Semi-durable goods4
Automobiles
7.9
5.1
6.4
7.4
6.7
2.9
3.6
6.2
5.2
7.1
6.5
- Non-durable goods
1.2
1.1
1.4
1.2
3.0
-1.7
2.0
2.4
-7.3
14.6
1.8
5
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period 3. Durable goods (25.4%): Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 4. Semi-durable goods (24.0%): Clothing, footwear, etc. 5. Non-durable goods (50.5%): Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobaccos, etc.
Sales growth moderated led by large discount stores. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2005
2006
Annual Annual
Mar
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Jan
Feb1
Mar1
- Department stores
3.1
3.7
7.5
8.3
6.0
0.4
0.7
-2.5
-7.8
0.9
0.1
- Large discount stores
8.3
8.8
8.6
7.3
10.1
6.4
11.6
10.2
-8.5
31.1
12.8
- Other retail stores
1.3
0.6
-2.1
-1.4
-1.8
0.4
1.7
2.2
-0.8
5.4
2.4
1. Preliminary
8
2007 1
May 2007
2-1
Private consumption Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
2-2
Consumer goods sales Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
2-3
Consumer goods sales by type Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
9
Preliminary consumption indicators in April appear to be in good shape overall, in spite of indicating slight moderation with the holiday effects disappearing. Growth in the value of credit card use slightly rose while sales in department and discount stores reversing course to post a decrease. Domestic sales of home-manufactured automobiles in April 2007 continued to increase on the back of new car launch. Value of credit card use (y-o-y, %) 10.0 (Dec 2006)
11.5 (Jan 2007)
16.5 (Feb)
12.1 (Mar)
14.9 (Apr 1~15)
Source: The Credit Finance Association
Department store sales (y-o-y, %) 1.0 (Dec 2006)
-6.2 (Jan 2007)
4.7 (Feb)
3.1 (Mar)
-2.1 (Apr 1~15)
Discount store sales (y-o-y, %) 1.8 (Dec 2006)
-19.5 (Jan 2007)
25.3 (Feb)
3.6 (Mar)
-2.9 (Apr 1~15)
Source: Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy Ministry of Finance and Economy (April 2007, monitoring results on current sales volume basis)
Domestic sales of home-manufactured automobiles (thousand units): 122 (Dec 2006) (y-o-y, %): -4.9 (Dec 2006)
95 (Jan 2007)
13.6 (Jan 2007)
90 (Feb)
0.9 (Feb)
106 (Mar) 4.4 (Mar)
35 (Apr 1~15)
6.0 (Apr 1~15)
The recent improvement in consumption sentiment and real income growth expansion signal a recovery in private consumption. March consumer expectations index slightly moderated from the previous month, but the upward trend since the second half of the previous year is assessed to have continued. Gross National Income (GNI) growth neared the GDP growth. Consumer expectations index (base=100) 97.4 (Jun 2006) 98.1 (Feb)
94.3 (Jul)
93.7 (Aug)
94.8 (Sep)
93.9 (Oct)
95.2 (Nov)
93.7 (Dec)
96.1 (Jan 2007)
97.8 (Mar)
Source: Korea National Statistical Office
Consumer sentiment index (base=100) 101 (Q2 2006)
96 (Q3)
98 (Q4)
103 (Q1 2007)
2.4 (Q3)
3.3 (Q4)
Source: The Bank of Korea
Real GNI (y-o-y, %) 1.6 (Q1 2006)
1.7 (Q2)
3.4* (Q1 2007)
*GNI for the first quarter of 2007 has not been released yet, therefore GDI was used.
Real GDP (y-o-y, %) 6.3 (Q1 2006)
5.1 (Q2)
4.8 (Q3)
4.0 (Q4)
4.0 (Q1 2007)
Maintaining the trend growth of private consumption is dependent on the future trend of income and employment conditions. Changes in number of employed (y-o-y, thousand) 331 (Q1 2006)
283 (Q2)
288 (Q3)
278 (Q4)
Real household income growth (nationwide, %) 1.9 (Q1 2006)
10
May 2007
2.4 (Q2)
1.1 (Q3)
5.4 (Q4)
264 (Q1 2007)
2-4
Department store and discount store sales (current value) Source: Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy (monthly retail sales)
2-5
Domestic automobile sales Source: Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association (monthly automobile industry trend)
2-6
Consumer expectations index and present situation index Source: Korea National Statistical Office (monthly consumer survey index)
Economic Bulletin
11
3. Facility investment Facility investment in the first quarter of 2007 (preliminary GDP) expanded 10.3 percent yearon-year or 4.0 percent from the previous quarter on the back of domestic demand recovery. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2005
Facility investment
2
(Seasonally adjusted)
3
- Machinery - Transportation equipment 1. Preliminary
2. National accounts
20071
20061
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
3.8
3.1
5.0
10.8
5.7
7.0
7.2
11.1
5.3
7.6
10.3
2.1
2.0
1.0
5.2
-
-1.0
2.2
3.8
0.1
-
4.0
8.1
6.2
5.3
9.8
7.4
3.3
9.5
12.4
6.5
7.9
-
-13.8
-9.4
3.4
15.9
-1.8
25.9
-3.5
4.8
-0.2
5.9
-
3. Percentage change from previous period
Facility investment in March (estimated index) posted an on-year growth of 6.4 percent led by robust investment in special industrial machinery and office machinery, albeit moderated from the previous month. Domestic machinery shipments slowed to post a 3.3 percent growth year-on-year. Leading indicators such as machinery orders and imports moderated during March, but the first quarter growth indicates a continuing upward trend from the last year. Domestic machinery orders (current value) in March posted an on-year 5.1 percent growth, slowing from the previous month due to the public sector’s reversing course to post a decrease and moderation in the private sector. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2005
2006
Annual Annual Estimated facility investment2 - Domestic machinery shipments Domestic machinery orders - Public - Private 1. Preliminary
2007
Mar
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q11
Jan
Feb1
Mar1
6.3
7.4
11.7
6.2
6.7
11.8
5.1
11.2
15.4
12.8
6.4
0.6
4.7
2.9
4.8
3.2
4.0
6.7
6.6
10.4
6.8
3.3
5.7
18.8
3.9
13.6
24.4
21.0
16.7
15.2
26.0
16.3
5.1
-1.3
7.1
-58.2
-31.1
24.7
19.0
22.1
14.8
22.1
33.3
-5.8
6.7
20.4
20.5
20.2
24.4
21.3
15.8
15.2
26.3
15.0
6.1
2. Industrial activity
Machinery imports (%) 13.7 (Nov 2006)
12.3 (Dec)
35.0 (Jan 2007)
13.3 (Feb)
16.0 (Mar)
48.5 (Apr 1~20)
The Business Survey Index (BSI) for facility investment result and prospect in the manufacturing sector compiled by the Bank of Korea slightly expanded from the previous month.
Business Survey Indexes (base=100)
2007 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Manufacturing facility investment result
96
96
97
99
-
Manufacturing facility investment prospect
99
98
97
97
101
Source: The Bank of Korea
12
May 2007
3-1
Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
3-2
Machinery orders and estimated facility investment (3-month average) Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
3-3
Machinery imports Source: Korea International Trade Association (KITA)
Economic Bulletin
13
4. Construction investment Construction investment in the first quarter of 2007 (preliminary GDP) increased 4.3 percent year-on-year, or 1.2 percent from the previous month, expanding growth for the second consecutive month. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2005
Construction investment (Seasonally adjusted)
2
3
20061
20071
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
-3.3
1.1
-0.1
0.4
-0.2
0.2
-5.0
-0.1
3.2
-0.4
4.3
0.2
4.4
-2.6
-1.3
-
0.0
-0.9
2.0
1.9
-
1.2
- Building construction
-7.4
0.4
-0.7
1.1
-1.4
1.1
-5.9
-2.4
-0.2
-2.0
-
- Civil engineering works
5.6
2.1
0.7
-0.5
1.5
-1.4
-3.9
3.4
7.4
2.0
-
1. Preliminary
2. National accounts
3. Percentage change from previous period
Construction completed (current value) in March moderated to post an on-year 2.0 percent growth due to decelerating growth of the public sector and the negative growth in the private sector. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2005
2006
Annual Annual
Mar
Q1
2007 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
1
Jan
Feb1
Mar1
4.1
3.7
4.3
4.2
-0.3
4.8
6.0
6.5
10.5
8.3
2.0
- Public
-3.7
1.9
-9.6
-11.7
-5.8
9.0
12.6
18.3
14.1
25.9
16.0
- Private
7.5
4.9
10.5
11.0
2.2
3.8
4.0
2.1
9.3
2.3
-3.6
Construction completed2
1. Preliminary
2. Industrial activity
Leading indicators including construction orders continued a healthy increase since the third quarter of 2006. Construction orders in March increased 32.0 percent due to a jump in the public sector. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2005
2006
Annual Annual Construction orders
2
Building construction permit area 1. Preliminary
2007
Mar
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q11
Jan
Feb1
Mar1
7.3
9.0
-34.1
-8.5
-14.7
37.1
27.1
26.3
9.7
40.1
32.0
-5.1
19.5
75.0
13.0
7.4
75.0
-2.8
-
-
-
-
2. Current value basis
The construction sector is expected to reverse course to post growth derailing from the decreasing trend due to the low comparison base set in the previous year. However, improvement in large scale seems unlikely.
14
May 2007
4-1
Construction investment Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
4-2
Construction completed and housing construction Source: Korea National Statistical Office (construction completed) Ministry of Construction and Transportation (housing construction)
4-3
Leading indicators of construction investment Source: Korea National Statistical Office (construction orders) Ministry of Construction and Transportation (building construction permit area)
Economic Bulletin
15
5. Exports and imports (customs clearance basis) Exports in April registered a 17.8 percent growth with US$30.15 billion on the back of increase in days operated by more than 0.5 days and a surge in automobile exports. By export category (estimated, Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy), automobile achieved a high growth due to low comparison base and diversification of export destinations. Steel and semiconductors continued robustness. (US$ billion) 2006
Exports (y-o-y, %)
2007
Feb
Mar
Apr
Jan-Apr
Feb
Mar
Apr
Jan-Apr
23.79
26.84
25.59
99.48
26.24
30.49
30.15
114.97
16.6
12.1
11.9
10.9
10.5
14.6
17.8
15.6
Average daily exports
1.08
1.12
1.15
1.10
1.28
1.30
1.31
1.26
Imports
23.51
25.95
24.49
97.03
25.29
29.06
29.35
111.38
27.8
13.9
15.3
18.5
7.3
12.0
19.9
14.8
1.07
1.08
11.5
11.0
12.3
12.4
12.8
12.2
(y-o-y, %) Average daily exports
April imports rose 19.9 percent to US$29.35 billion. Raw materials, capital goods and consumer goods imports all grew evenly on the back of facility investment recovery, exchange rate fall and consumer sentiment improvement. Raw materials (%) 18.1 (Dec 2006)
17.9 (Jan 2007)
4.5 (Feb)
13.8 (Mar)
15.8 (Apr 1-20)
Capital goods (%) 7.0 (Dec 2006)
22.2 (Jan 2007)
6.5 (Feb)
8.1 (Mar)
25.4 (Apr 1-20)
Consumer goods (%) 15.1 (Dec 2006)
32.5 (Jan 2007)
29.3 (Feb)
16.1 (Mar)
19.3 (Apr 1-20)
Trade surplus in April narrowed US$0.63 billion from the previous month to US$0.8 billion driven by swifter growth pace of imports compared to exports. (US$ billion) 2006
Trade balance
2007
Feb
Mar
Apr
Jan~Apr
Feb
Mar
Apr
Jan~Apr
0.28
0.9
1.1
3.47
1.04
1.43
0.8
3.59
Exports may slow down in May and beyond given the moderation in OECD Composite Leading Indicators and drop in semiconductor prices. Meantime, imports are likely to expand slightly on the facility investment recovery and consumer sentiment improvement.
16
May 2007
5-1
Exports (customs clearance basis) Source: Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy (export and import trend)
5-2
Imports (customs clearance basis) Source: Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy (export and import trend)
5-3
Trade balance Source: Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy (export and import trend)
Economic Bulletin
17
6. Industrial activity March industrial production expanded 3.1 percent year-on-year due mainly to high comparison base of 10.7 percent set last year and inventory adjustments in semiconductors. By sector, audiovisual telecommunications continued sluggishness (down 15.9%). However, automobile output reversed course to post an increase (-6.3% in February to 2.1% in March). Semiconductor production growth also expanded (6.6% in February to 10.6% in March). Industrial output growth in the first quarter remained at 3.3 percent year-on-year, which is slightly lower compared with 5.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006. Shipment for domestic demand rose 1.5 percent in March as irregular factors including the Lunar New year’s holidays disappeared. Shipment for exports expanded 9.1 percent while inventory growth moderated to 6.0 percent. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006 Annual Production (q-o-q)
Mar
2007 Q1
Jan
Feb
1
Mar1
Q11
-
1.3
3.8
1.3
0.3
-0.4
-0.6
(y-o-y)
10.1
10.7
12.8
7.5
-0.6
3.1
3.3
(days operated reflected)
10.6
11.6
11.1
1.5
6.7
4.3
4.1
- Manufacturing
10.5
11.2
13.4
7.6
-0.5
3.0
3.4
Shipment
7.8
7.5
9.7
7.0
1.2
4.9
4.4
- Domestic demand
4.5
5.9
7.1
6.9
-0.8
1.5
2.5
- Exports
11.9
9.6
13.1
7.2
3.6
9.1
6.7
Inventory
6.2
3.8
3.8
10.9
8.6
6.0
6.0
Average operation ratio (%)
81.1
81.3
81.8
81.4
82.0
81.4
81.6
Production capacity
3.4
4.6
4.6
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
1. Preliminary
Industrial activity in April is forecast to maintain upward trend due to improvements in domestic demand including consumption as well as robust exports, despite downside factors such as high comparison base of 12.2 percent in the previous year.
18
May 2007
6-1
Industrial production Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
6-2
Average manufacturing operation ratio Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
6-3
Inventory Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
19
7. Service sector activity Service activity in March grew 4.8 percent from a year earlier, maintaining the current upward trend since the fourth quarter of last year. When seasonally adjusted, the service output decreased 1.2 percent from the previous month. Financial and insurance services (up 10.6%) and entertainment, cultural and sports services (up 9.6%) led the service output increase in March. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) Weight
2006
2005 Annual Annual
Q1
Q2
2007 Q3
Q4
Q1
1
Jan
Feb1
Mar1 Contribution2 3.0 0.83
Wholesale & retail
27.6
2.1
4.0
3.7
4.2
4.3
3.7
4.8
4.9
6.9
Hotels & restaurants
7.7
0.3
2.1
3.9
2.4
2.3
-0.2
1.7
5.2
-2.2
1.8
0.14
Transportation services
8.8
4.2
6.3
6.4
6.3
5.9
6.9
6.7
7.7
8.4
4.2
0.37
Communication services
5.8
4.1
2.8
2.3
2.9
3.2
2.6
3.1
4.3
3.2
2.0
0.12
Financial & insurance services
17.6
7.3
7.9
13.2
9.2
4.9
4.8
8.6
7.0
8.3
10.6
1.87
Real estate & renting
5.4
8.5
10.2
10.5
8.2
7.4
14.3
5.9
8.3
7.1
2.5
0.13
Business services
8.5
2.8
5.9
5.6
5.7
5.7
6.4
5.3
5.0
6.1
5.0
0.42
Educational services
8.6
0.7
2.3
1.4
2.5
1.4
4.4
2.9
-3.9
9.8
3.8
0.33
Healthcare & social welfare services
4.0
7.3
10.0
11.1
8.1
11.9
8.9
9.6
9.3
14.6
5.2
0.21
Entertainment, cultural and sports services
3.5
3.0
2.5
4.9
2.7
-0.9
3.7
5.7
3.6
3.4
9.6
0.34
Other public & personal services
2.6
1.9
3.8
4.7
4.1
3.9
2.5
1.9
2.4
1.7
1.7
0.05
1. Preliminary 2. Contribution to March 2007 growth (%p). Most industries contributed evenly to the total sector growth of 4.8 percent in March with financial and insurance services (1.87%p), wholesale and retail sales (0.83%p) and business services (0.42%p) leading the increase.
Service activity is expected to have continued its upward trend in April, although its growth pace may have been adjusted slightly. Financial and insurance services, which account for 17.6 percent of the service sector, are forecast to have gotten a boost on the back of favorable conditions in stock market such as increase in trading value. However, upward trend for other service businesses including wholesale and retail sales may have slowed given recent rise in oil prices and weaker consumption indicators.
KOSPI (monthly average) 1,419 (Dec 2006)
1,379 (Jan 2007)
1,435 (Feb)
1,432 (Mar)
1,517 (Apr)
Stock trading value (trillion won) 88 (Dec 2006)
96 (Jan 2007)
98 (Feb)
109 (Mar)
138 (Apr)
Oil prices (Dubai crude, US$/barrel) 58.8 (Dec 2006)
51.8 (Jan 2007)
55.9 (Feb)
58.9 (Mar)
64.0 (Apr)
Department store sales (y-o-y, %) 1.0 (Dec 2006)
-6.2 (Jan 2007)
4.7 (Feb)
3.1 (Mar)
-2.1 (Apr 1~15)
Discount store sales (y-o-y, %) 1.8 (Dec 2006) -19.5 (Jan 2007) 25.3 (Feb) 3.6 (Mar) Source: Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy
-2.9 (Apr 1~15)
Ministry of Finance and Economy (April 2007, monitoring results on current sales volume basis)
20
May 2007
7-1
Service industry Source: Korea National Statistical Office (service industry activity trend)
7-2
Wholesale and retail sales Source: Korea National Statistical Office (service industry activity trend)
Mar 2007 service industry by business
serv ices Hea l t h serv care ices & s ocia l we lfar e Ente spo rtainm rts s en ervi t, cu ces ltura l& Oth & p er pub erso lic, nal repa serv ir ices
Edu cati ona l
Com mun icat ion serv ices Fina serv ncial & ices insu ranc e Rea l es tate & re ntin g Bus ines s se rvic es
Tran spo rtat ion
rest aura nts Hot els &
Wh oles ale &
reta il
Source: Korea National Statistical Office (service industry activity trend)
Tota l ind ex
7-3
Economic Bulletin
21
8. Employment The number of workers on the payroll in March increased 273,000 from a year earlier, sustaining steady employment growth of 258,000 for January and 262,000 for February. Service sector employment posted the highest growth since August 2006, with an increase of 340,000 in March on the back of strong service activities in recent months led by business services. Hiring in manufacturing slipped 60,000 in March, slightly accelerating downward trend despite the strong export growth. Employment in construction expanded 44,000 led by robust growth in construction completed and favorable weather condition, having exceeded the 40,000 level for the forth consecutive month. However, the number of employment in agriculture, forestry and fisheries decreased 52,000 after falling 46,000 in the previous month, affected by the reduced participation in the economic activity by unpaid family workers (down 11,000). As for the type of employment, the increase was continually led by waged work (up 362,000) and full-time work (up 331,000). The employment rate rose 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 59.2 percent, while the unemployment rate and the youth unemployment rate dropped 0.4 and 1.0 percentage points from a year earlier to 3.5 and 7.5 percent, respectively. (Change from same period in previous year, thousand) 2006
2007
Mar
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Dec
Annual
Jan
Feb
Mar
272
331
283
288
293
290
295
258
262
273
- Agriculture, forestry and fishery
-43
-34
-65
-28
-36
11
-31
-28
-46
-52
- Manufacturing
-95
-72
-77
-57
-77
-67
-67
-45
-45
-60
- Construction
47
34
7
13
-32
48
21
47
46
44
- Services
364
403
419
358
436
293
371
281
305
340
Employment growth
Unemployment rate (%)
3.9
3.9
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.3
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.5
Employment rate (%)
59.1
58.5
60.4
60.0
59.9
59.1
59.7
58.4
58.1
59.2
22
May 2007
8-1
Number of employed and employment growth Source: Korea National Statistical Office (employment trend)
8-2
Share of employed by industry Source: Korea National Statistical Office (employment trend)
8-3
Unemployment rate and number of unemployed Source: Korea National Statistical Office (employment trend)
Economic Bulletin
23
9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market The Korean stock market had a bullish run in April driven by the following events: conclusion of the KORUS FTA, expectations over higher sovereign rating on improved North Korea-US relations, and a rally in the US and Chinese stock markets. The KOSPI surged in April driven by net buying by foreign investors to post the record high of 1,556.7 points on April 24. The index, however, fell slightly in the end of the month with adjustment after its sharp rise as well as concerns over China’s economic tightening policies. The KOSDAQ prolonged its solid gains until mid April. However, it went through a correction after the news of prosecutors’ investigations into stock price manipulation and profit-taking from sharp rise. In April, the net buying by foreign and individual investors amounted to 2,741.4 billion won and 10.4 billion won respectively, while net selling by institutional investors recorded 2,867.2 billion won. (End-period, point, trillion won) KOSPI
Stock price index Market capitalization
KOSDAQ
2006
Apr 2007
Change
1,434.5
1,542.2
704.6 3.4
Average daily trade value
2006
Apr 2007
Change1
107.7 (+7.5%)
606.2
675.9
69.7 (+11.5%)
757.3
52.7 (+7.5%)
72.1
84.1
12.0 (+16.6%)
3.4
0.0 (+0.0%)
1.7
2.0
0.3 (+17.6%)
1
1. Change from the end of previous year
9.2 Exchange rate The won/dollar exchange rate fell to the 930 won range as this was affected by two factors: (1) foreign investors’ net buying of domestic stocks; and (2) nonresidents’ selling of dollars. In April, the dollar’s value against the won is usually boosted by seasonal factors such as the demand for dollar by foreign investors to remit dividend. Nonetheless, the won/dollar exchange rate kept declining from early April to reach the 926 won range on April 23, with a fresh record high in stock prices and foreigners’ investment in domestic stocks. The exchange rate, however, bounced back to the 930 won range around the end of the month, undergoing a correction phase after the decline. (End-period) 2005
2006
2007
Dec
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Change1
Won/Dollar
1,011.6
929.8
941.0
941.8
940.9
930.8
-0.1
Yen/Dollar
117.8
118.7
121.4
118.2
117.6
119.5
-0.7
1. Appreciation from the end of previous year (%); the value of Korean won is based on closing price at 3:00 p.m.
24
May 2007
9-1
Stock prices
9-2
Foreign exchange rate (month-end)
9-3
Recent foreign exchange rate
Economic Bulletin
25
9.3 Bond market Bond yields such as Treasury bond yield rose in April due to massive selling of Treasury bond futures by foreign investors and a rise in US Treasury bond yields. The increase in bond yields accelerated toward the end of the month, due to expectations of the economic recovery and concerns over the government’s possible restriction on shortterm overseas borrowing by foreign bank branches in Korea. Yields on 91-day CDs, which are short-term interest rates, also climbed from the previous month. (End-period) 2004
2005
Dec
Dec
Sep
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Change1
3.29
3.76
4.48
4.60
4.61
4.55
4.63
4.88
+28
Call rate (1 day)
2006
2007
CD (91 day)
3.43
4.09
4.59
4.86
4.96
4.94
4.94
5.00
+14
Treasury bonds (3 yr)
3.28
5.08
4.57
4.92
5.02
4.86
4.76
5.05
+13
Corporate bonds (3 yr)
3.72
5.52
4.89
5.29
5.38
5.24
5.19
5.44
+15
Treasury bonds (5 yr)
3.39
5.36
4.61
5.00
5.03
4.88
4.80
5.06
+6
1. Basis point change from end December 2006
9.4 Money supply & money market The M2 growth in March decelerated slightly as the increase in private sector credit slowed from selling of securities held by banks. The M1 growth is estimated to have sharply declined as M1 no longer included MMFs held by individuals, which are redeemable on and after the next business day following the transaction date from March 2007. (Percentage change from same period in previous year, average) 2005
2006
2007
2007
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan
Feb
Mar
Feb1
M12
8.5
-0.9
-0.6
-2.8
-5.5
5.9
7.9
7.4
Mid -5
350.7
M2
6.9
8.3
7.0
7.2
8.1
10.9
11.3
11.5
Mid 11
1,154.1
3
7.0
7.9
7.2
7.4
7.5
9.2
9.8
9.9
Around 10
1,547.25
Lf
4
4
1. Amount, trillion won 2. Excludes corporate MMF and individual MMF from November 21, 2005 and March 22, 2007, respectively, as they are redeemable on and after the next business day following the transaction date from those periods each. 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3) 4. Preliminary 5. Estimates
In March, bank deposits accelerated the growth on the back of increased instant access accounts as corporate tax payments and settlements of loans carried forward to the next month due to the final day of March fallen on weekend. Asset management company (AMC) receipts continued solid growth led by newly launched funds and fund of funds, while equity funds also turned to positive territory with considerable growth from the previous month. (Monthly change, end-period, trillion won) 2006 Mar
Jun
Jul
2007
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Bank deposits
2.3
10.9
-7.2
4.3
13.6
-7.3
3.7
17.4
-8.3
4.6
6.9
AMC receipts
6.9
-11.7
0.3
-1.8
4.0
5.8
4.7
-0.8
3.4
0.4
3.4
26
May 2007
9-4
Interest rates Source: The Bank of Korea
9-5
Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea
9-6
Share of deposits by financial sector (M3 as of year-end) Source: The Bank of Korea * Retail finance: Mutual savings banks & National Credit Union Federation of Korea, Others: Investment banks, post office savings, etc.
Economic Bulletin
27
10. Balance of payments Korea’s current account in March turned to red territory, recording a US$1.49 billion deficit from a US$490 million surplus in February due to seasonal factors such as dividend payments despite an increase in goods account surplus and a decrease in service account deficit. The goods account surplus widened to US$2.50 billion in March, up US$110 million from the previous month, continuously achieving double digit growth rate. The service account deficit narrowed by US$860 million month-on-month to post US$1.69 billion as the transportation account surplus increased and business services account deficit and payments for patent rights decreased, while the travel account deficit remained unchanged from the previous month. Due to seasonal factors such as external dividend payments by domestic firms with endDecember fiscal year, the income account in March reversed course to register a US$2.09 billion deficit from a US$850 million surplus in the previous month. Meantime, the seasonally adjusted current account posted a US$450 million deficit in March, which is US$1.04 billion less than the original data, as the income account deficit narrowed. Current account (SA*, US$ billion) 620 (Mar 2006) 600 (Dec) * Seasonally adjusted
-740 (Jan 2007)
630 (Feb)
-450 (Mar)
(US$ million) 2006
2007
Jan
Feb
Mar
Jan~Mar
Jan
Feb
Mar
Jan~Mar
90
-760
-430
-1,120
-430
490
-1,490
-1,520
- Goods balance
1,480
860
2,910
5,220
1,290
2,390
2,500
6,180
- Service balance
-1,640
-1,820
-1,540
-5,000
-1,940
-2,550
-1,690
-6,180
- Income balance
570
430
-1,470
-480
550
850
-2,090
-690
Current account
Despite a net outflow in portfolio investment balance, the capital account balance saw a net inflow of US$3.16 billion in March, mainly thanks to a surplus in other investment account. Capital & financial account balance (US$ billion) 790 (Mar 2006)
5,460 (Dec)
2,080 (Jan 2007)
-400 (Feb)
3,160 (Mar)
As for April, the current account balance is expected to post a deficit mainly due to scheduled external dividend payments and decreased export-import gap on customs clearance basis from US$1.43 billion in March to US$800 million in April.
28
May 2007
10-1 Current account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-2 Travel balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-3 Capital & financial account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
Economic Bulletin
29
11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices Despite markup of public transportation fares in some regions including Seoul, consumer prices have stabilized with an on-year 2.5 percent rise in April.
Consumer price inflation 2007
2006 Apr
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Month-on-Month (%)
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.7
0.6
0.4
Year-on-Year (%)
2.0
2.1
1.7
2.2
2.2
2.5
The increase of consumer prices in April was driven by the hike in public service fees such as the subway and city bus fares in the Seoul metropolitan area, and higher prices of some manufacturing products including instant noodle and gold ring. Meantime, prices of agricultural, livestock and fisheries products were stable compared to the previous years as more vegetables and livestock products came out to market.
Consumer price inflation in major sectors Total
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
Agricultural, livestock & fishery products
Industrial products
Oil products
Housing rents
Public utility
Personal services
Apr 2007 (Contribution ratio, %p)
2.5
1.7 (0.15)
1.6 (0.46)
0.5 (0.03)
1.8 (0.17)
3.2 (0.54)
3.1 (1.08)
Apr average 2002-2006
2.9
4.4
2.4
5.4
2.4
1.9
3.7
Consumer price increases of major items in Apr 2007 (y-o-y, %) City bus fare (14.2), subway fare (13.5), instant noodle (8.0), soap powder (17.2), gold ring (9.9)
Consumer price decreases of major items in Apr 2007 (y-o-y, %) Radish (-41.1), Chinese cabbage (-56.5), camera (-31.1), mobile phone (-29.6)
Core inflation was up 2.6 percent from a year earlier in April. Consumer prices for basic necessities, a barometer of perceived consumer prices, rose 2.9 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006 Apr
2007 Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Core inflation
1.5
2.1
2.1
2.3
2.4
2.6
Consumer prices for basic necessities
2.9
2.6
1.9
2.4
2.5
2.9
Consumer prices in May are forecast to maintain the stable 2 percent level year-on-year in spite of higher prices of some energy such as oil products and city gas.
30
May 2007
11-1 Prices Source: Korea National Statistical Office (consumer prices, core inflation) & The Bank of Korea (producer prices)
11-2 Consumer price inflation Source: Korea National Statistical Office (consumer price trend)
11-3 Contribution to consumer price inflation Source: Korea National Statistical Office (consumer price trend)
Economic Bulletin
31
11.2. International oil and commodity prices Despite downward factors including the increase in US oil stock, international oil prices rose in April. This was largely due to the OPEC’s output cut as well as heightened geopolitical tensions in oil producing countries such as Nigeria. International oil prices in May are most likely to be influenced by the development of the geopolitical unrest in Iran and Nigeria, and the expected growth of gasoline demand in the US during the driving season from May to September. (US$/barrel, period average) 2004
2005
2006
2007
Annual
Annual
Annual
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Dubai crude
33.6
49.4
61.6
51.8
55.9
58.9
64.0
Brent crude
38.2
54.3
65.1
53.6
57.5
62.3
67.6
WTI crude
41.4
56.5
66.0
54.2
59.2
60.6
63.9
Record high oil prices (spot prices, US$/barrel, Aug 2006) Dubai crude: 72.2
Brent crude: 78.7
WTI crude: 77.0
Prices of domestic oil products including gasoline and diesel rose from a month earlier as international oil prices have deployed upward trends since mid-February. (Won/liter, period average)
Gasoline prices Diesel prices
2004
2005
2006
2007
Annual
Annual
Annual
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
1,295
1,365
1,543
1,411
1,402
1,456
1,505
908
1,080
1,295
1,170
1,164
1,186
1,215
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Among international commodities, prices of non-ferrous metals and precious metals continued to rise while prices of grain stabilized with a marginal drop. The prices of electrolytic copper, nickel and lead rose on increased demand in China and concerns over supply disruption in major producers, while tartar price lost ground to post a decline from late April as major producers including Indonesia restarted export. Prices of corn and soybean fell on expected farm expansion and increased exports to South America, while wheat price went up on concerns about bad weather such as cold-weather damage. Price increases in Apr 2007 (m-o-m, %) Gold (3.7), electrolytic copper (19.1), nickel (10.2), lead (10.0), wheat (2.3)
Price decreases in Apr 2007 (m-o-m, %) Corn (-10.9), soy bean (-2.0)
Reuters index*
(Period average)
2004
2005
2006
Annual
Annual
Annual
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
1,618
1,680
2,019
2,223
2,247
2,265
2,296
* A weighted average index of 17 major commodities
32
May 2007
2007
11-4 International oil prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
11-5 International oil prices (Dubai crude) and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation & Korea Customs Service
11-6 International commodity prices Source: Bloomberg (CRB) & The Bank of Korea (Reuters index) * CRB demonstrates futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry.
Economic Bulletin
33
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market Apartment prices in April remained unchanged from the previous month.
Nationwide apartment sales prices 2004
(Percentage change from previous period)
2005
2006
Annual Annual Annual
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
2007 Apr 21
Apr 91
Apr 161 Apr 231
Nationwide
-0.6
5.9
13.8
3.8
2.1
1.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.02
-0.02
0.00
-0.03
Seoul
-1.0
9.1
24.1
6.2
3.7
1.8
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.02
0.0
-0.02
-0.06
-1.3
13.5
27.6
6.5
2.4
1.1
0.1
0.0
-0.3
0.00
-0.05
-0.27
-0.06
-3.7
7.6
28.4
8.2
3.6
1.6
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.03
-0.06
-0.04
-0.05
Gangnam
2
Gyeonggi
1. Weekly trends 2. Upscale area of southern Seoul Source: Kookmin Bank
The increase in apartment rental prices decelerated in April.
Nationwide apartment rental prices 2004
(Percentage change from previous period)
2005
2006
2007
Annual Annual Annual
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Apr 21
Apr 91
0.01
0.00
Nationwide
-2.7
5.7
7.6
1.2
0.6
0.5
0.3
0.4
0.3
Seoul
-4.4
6.2
11.5
1.7
0.6
0.7
0.4
0.6
0.4
0.00
Gangnam2
-5.2
8.6
11.3
1.5
0.5
0.7
0.4
0.3
0.2
-0.01
Gyeonggi
-5.5
10.6
12.4
2.1
1.0
0.8
0.4
0.6
0.3
-0.02
Apr 161 Apr 231
0.03
0.00
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.00
-0.04
0.01
-0.04
0.02
-0.08
1. Weekly trends 2. Upscale area of southern Seoul Source: Kookmin Bank
Apartment sales transactions in March increased from the previous month.
Apartment sales transactions 2004
Annual Annual 64
34
(Monthly average, thousand)
2005
79
May 2007
2006
2007
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
107
89
89
81
68
60
100
110
152
116
86
63
70
12-1 Real estate prices Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
12-2 Weekly apartment sales prices and monthly transaction volume Source: Kookmin Bank (weekly APT price trend) & Korea Land Corporation (monthly land trade trend)
12-3 Apartment prices by region Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
Economic Bulletin
35
12.2 Land market Nationwide land prices in March rose 0.28 percent from the previous month. Only 71 areas out of 248 cities, counties and districts stayed above the nationwide average while the remaining 177 areas stood at the below average.
Land prices by region
(Percentage change from previous period)
2004
2005
Annual Annual
2006
2007
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan
Feb
Mar
Nationwide
3.86
4.98
1.13
1.11
5.61
1.31
1.43
1.25
1.5
0.36
0.31
0.28
Seoul
4.09
6.56
1.44
1.59
9.17
1.78
2.37
2.19
2.5
0.51
0.46
0.40
Gyeonggi
6.12
5.69
1.41
0.81
5.07
1.12
1.29
1.05
0.5
0.40
0.35
0.31
S. Chungcheong
11.65
8.32
1.28
2.12
5.54
2.77
1.31
0.69
0.67
0.16
0.15
0.14
Nationwide land transactions in March expanded from the previous month as well as from a year earlier.
Land sales transactions 2004
(Monthly average, thousand) 2005
2006
Annual Annual Mar
2007
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Nationwide
218
248
261
231
249
211
182
178
236
239
330
372
242
185
212
Gyeonggi
52
56
61
55
66
52
45
46
66
71
102
100
59
43
48
N. Chungcheong
8
11
11
8
9
9
8
7
8
7
10
13
9
7
9
S. Chungcheong
20
17
17
14
15
12
8
8
10
9
12
15
12
9
11
36
May 2007
12-4 Land and consumer prices since 1970s Source: Korea Land Corporation (land prices) & Korea National Statistical Office (consumer prices)
12-5 Land prices by region Source: Korea Land Corporation (land price trend)
12-6 Land trade volume Source: Korea Land Corporation (land trade trend) 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0
Economic Bulletin
37
13. Composite indexes of business cycle indicators The cyclical indicator of coincident composite index, a barometer of current economic conditions, fell 0.3 percentage points from a month earlier in March, mainly due to the decrease in some components of the index including the value of construction completed and the wholesale and retail sales index. Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (%p, m-o-m) 1.1 (Oct 2006)
0.3 (Nov)
-0.2 (Dec)
-0.2 (Jan 2007)
0.1 (Feb)
-0.3 (Mar)
The on-year leading composite index in March, which foresees the future economic conditions, remained unchanged month-on-month. Some components of the index including the value of machinery order received and the value of construction order placed were down while the volume of capital goods imports and liquidity in financial institutions increased. 12 month smoothed change in leading composite index (%p, m-o-m) 0.3 (Oct 2006)
0.4 (Nov)
-0.1 (Dec)
0.0 (Jan 2007)
0.2 (Feb)
0.0 (Mar)
2006 Nov Coincident composite index (m-o-m)
2007 Dec
Jun
1
Feb1
Mar1
0.7
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.2
101.0
100.8
100.6
100.7
100.4
0.3
-0.2
-0.2
0.1
-0.3
Leading composite index (m-o-m)
0.8
0.4
0.3
0.6
0.3
12 month smoothed change in leading composite index
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.9
4.9
0.4
-0.1
0.0
0.2
0.0
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (%p, m-o-m)
(%p, m-o-m) 1. Preliminary
38
May 2007
13-1 Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index Source: Korea National Statistical Office
13-2 Leading composite index Source: Korea National Statistical Office
13-3 Coincident and leading composite indexes Source: Korea National Statistical Office
Economic Bulletin
39
Policy Issues Korea, European Union Kick off FTA Talks
On May 1, 2007, the Korean government decided to launch negotiations for the Korea-EU free trade agreement (FTA) at the economy related ministers’ meeting. Korean Trade Minister Kim Hyun-chong and EU Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson, meeting in Seoul on May 6, agreed to the launch of negotiations on the bilateral free trade agreement. The first round of negotiations on the Korea-EU FTA was held in Seoul from May 7 to 11, 2007. Two sides plan to hold formal talks 5 or 6 times this year for the utmost progress of the FTA. One or two inter-session meetings are expected as and when necessary.
1. Backdrop against the launch of Korea-EU FTA Korea’s high external dependency ratio of over 70 percent and the rapid catching up by BRICs countries have prompted Korea to engage in free trade talks with major economic partners. Besides, growth is moderating due to low fertility and aging, which calls for new growth engines. To foster new growth engines, securing stable overseas markets, attracting investment and enhancing productivity through competition are deemed necessary. The government has been promoting the Korea-EU FTA strategically according to the "FTA promotion roadmap" of August 2003.
Korea's growth potential projected (%) 4.3 (2010s)
2.9 (2020s)
1.8 (2030s)
1.4 (2040s)
Against this backdrop, openness is not an option but an essential strategy for survival. It is also supported by the study of Sachs and Warner in 1995 which found that during the 1970s and 1980s developing countries adopted opening policy achieved a 4.5 percent annual economic growth while those with closed-door policy grew a mere 0.7 percent annually.
40
May 2007
Also, regional economic cooperation efforts including signing FTAs have been expanding drastically. Among 211 regional trade agreements reported to WTO as of September 2006, 70 percent or 149 of them were concluded after 1996.
1955-1960
1961-1970
1971-1980
1981-1990
1991-1995
1996-2000
2001Sep 2006
Concluded FTA
3
3
11
10
35
42
107
Total
3
6
17
27
62
104
211
Source: WTO
EU is the second largest export destination following China and the biggest investor for Korea. EU is the biggest economic bloc in the world. As of 2005, the total GDP of 25 EU member countries amounted to US$13.5 trillion, exceeding that of the US by more than US$1 trillion according to IMF data. EU is the second largest trading partner for Korea next to China. Based on the 2006 trade volume, Korea’s top five trading partners are China (18.6% out of total trade volume), EU (12.5%), Japan (12.4%), and the US (12.1%).
Trade with the US, China and EU (2006)
(US$ billion, %)
EU
US
China
Amount
Weight
Amount
Weight
Amount
Weight
Exports
49.2
15.1
43.2
13.3
69.5
21.4
Imports
30.2
9.8
33.7
10.9
48.6
15.7
Total
79.4
12.5
76.9
12.1
118.1
18.6
Source: Korea International Trade Association
EU’s average tariff rate is higher than advanced countries including the US, especially for Korea’s main export items of automobile, textiles and electronics. The Korea-EU FTA, once concluded, is expected to bring considerable benefits.
High tariff products among main export items to EU (2005) Automobile
Audiovisuals including TV
Export amount (US$ billion)
8.3
2.3
Weight (%)
19
5.2
EU
10
14
Tariff rate (%)
US
2.5
0-5
Japan
0
0
Korea
8
8
EU’s average applied tariff rate is 4.2 percent compared to 3.7 percent of the US and 3.1 percent in Japan.
Economic Bulletin
41
EU is Korea’s largest investment partner. EU is the largest investor in Korea and Korea’s third largest investment destination next to China and the US.
Investment with the US, China and EU (accumulated, as of end 2006) EU Amount
(US$ billion, %)
US Weight
Amount
China Weight
Amount
Weight
Investment to Korea
40.5
31.9
36.6
28.9
1.8
1.4
Investment from Korea
9.4
13.6
16.7
24.1
17.0
24.4
Source: The Export-Import Bank of Korea, Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy
Countries outside the EU face relatively high trade barriers when they trade with EU member countries. The Korea-EU FTA, if concluded, is likely to contribute greatly to promoting investment and trade with EU members while substantially eliminating trade disadvantages. Furthermore, given the EU’s geographical and economic proximity to newly emerging markets such as Russia and former Soviet Union countries, the Korea-EU FTA will help Korean companies gain a foothold in entering the EU market as well as the neighboring countries.
2. Timing of the Korea-EU FTA negotiations Pursuing the Korea-EU FTA was selected as a mid-to-long term implementation task in August 2003 according to the FTA promotion roadmap along with the FTAs with the US and China. Since then, preparatory work has been carried out, separately from the KORUS FTA. As part of the preparatory work, the government commissioned the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) and other institutions to conduct a number of research studies on Korea-EU FTA, including KIEP’s “Economic Impact Analysis of Korea-EU FTA.” Korea-EU FTA will produce considerable benefits given the significant portion of developing countries among 27 EU members and high trade barriers to non-EU countries. As a result of the KORUS FTA negotiations, Korea’s opening up of sensitive areas such as agriculture and services expanded. Accordingly, additional burden from the Korea-EU FTA is not expected to be heavy. Building on the momentum of the KORUS FTA conclusion, Korea is given an opportunity to expand its export market while promoting investment with a view to enhancing services competitiveness. Korea-EU FTA will ultimately solidify the foundation for Korea to become an FTA hub.
42
May 2007
3. Areas of interest in Korea-EU FTA According to the research results so far, the following areas are expected to draw more attention during the course of FTA negotiations. Goods: Korea’s main export items such as automobile, electric and electronic products are expected to see their markets expand. Higher productivity and job creation are also likely. Korea will likely pay attention to export increase of automobile and automobile parts, electric and electronic equipment, textiles and clothing, while EU to increased market access in the areas of machinery, chemicals, automobile, medicine and cosmetics. Agriculture and fisheries: Korea-EU FTA’s impact on Korea’s agriculture and fisheries is expected to be limited compared with that of FTAs with the US and China. EU has also a high degree of sensitivity in the agricultural sector. Korea-EU FTA’s additional adverse effects on the sector will be marginal. For EU, exports of processed dairy products such as butter and cheese and processed alcoholic liquors including wine and whisky are likely to expand. For Korea, some processed agricultural products such as Kimchi will see their exports grow. The level of concession for agricultural products in EU’s FTAs with Mexico and Chile ranges from 68 percent to 80 percent.
Level of concession for agricultural products (%) Tariff line based
Value of import based
EU-Mexico FTA (immediate elimination)
68.1 (33.6)
83.0 (62.1)
EU-Chile FTA (immediate elimination)
80.0 (43.3)
99.1 (17.5)
Services and investment: EU has traditionally adopted a positive list system, which has a lower level of openness compared with a negative list system employed by the US. Therefore, both sides are likely to mutually benefit from concentrating on the areas of interest. EU is likely to focus on finance, telecommunications, courier service, legal and accounting services and news agency activities. Sensitive areas such as coastal transport and audio and visual services are expected to be excluded from the negotiations. Mutual cooperative tools are likely to be developed instead. As for Investor-State Dispute (ISD), the European Commission’s stance is that ISD is subject to bilateral investment treaty by each member country and should be excluded from the FTA negotiations. Korea will put its priority on laying the foundation for forging Mutual Recognition Agreement to encourage domestic professionals to enter the EU market. The experts include architects, nurses and veterinarians. Simplification of immigration procedure and market expansion for
Economic Bulletin
43
sea transport, telecommunications and audio-visual services are also the areas of interest. Audio-visual services include film-making, distribution and music recording. Others: EU is projected to have interest in intellectual property rights, in particular, geographical identification or GI, exclusive right to medical information and practical protective measures for IPR. Both Korea and the EU have interest in the government procurement. A comprehensive WTO plus negotiation, a higher level agreement than the government procurement, is expected.
4. Expected losses from Korea-EU FTA and domestic compensation measures As with other FTAs, calculating expected amount of losses from signing Korea-EU FTA and the detailed compensation measures can be developed after negotiation results are produced. However, it is highly likely that the Korea-EU FTA will mostly resemble the KORUS FTA in terms of its substance. Therefore, it is expected that the compensation measures for KORUS FTA, currently underway, can also be utilized as the compensation measures for the Korea-EU FTA. Still, the government will closely monitor whether there will be any newly expected areas of losses, thereby coming up with timely measures.
44
May 2007
Economic News Briefing
GDP increases on-quarter 0.9% in Q1 (preliminary) Korea’s real GDP in the first quarter of 2007 gained 0.9 percent (seasonally adjusted) from the previous quarter as exports, capital investments and a solid recovery in the construction sector led growth. The economy grew 4.0 percent year-on-year. Exports in the first quarter rose 2.8 percent from the previous quarter, a turnaround from a 0.5 percent fall three months earlier. Imports climbed 3.9 percent, compared with a 2.1 percent contraction in the fourth quarter of last year. With respect to production, the construction sector grew 1.6 percent, and service businesses expanded 1.2 percent from the previous quarter. However, the manufacturing industry contracted 0.8 percent from three month earlier on a slump in the semiconductors and other sectors. In terms of expenditure, facility investments jumped 4 percent, with construction investments rising 1.2 percent. In addition, private consumption gained 1.3 percent onquarter on brisk sales of cars and home appliances, the highest quarter-on-quarter growth since the second quarter of 2005. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund predicted in its twice yearly report, “World Economic Outlook,” that Korea’s economy will grow 4.4 percent this year, slowing from a 5 percent advance last year, as exports may cool due to a US economic slowdown.
Economic Bulletin
45
GDP by production and expenditure*
(Percentage change from previous quarter)
2005
20061
20071
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
GDP
0.7
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.0
0.8
1.2
0.9
0.9
Agriculture, forestry and fishery
-2.4
0.1
-0.1
0.6
-2.2
-0.7
-0.4
-0.6
1.3
Manufacturing
1.0
2.0
2.8
3.9
0.8
1.6
2.2
1.0
-0.8
Construction
0.0
2.9
-1.8
-0.8
-0.2
-1.4
3.6
0.6
1.6
Services2
0.8
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.1
0.7
0.9
1.2
1.2
Private consumption
0.5
1.9
1.0
1.2
1.2
0.6
0.9
1.0
1.3
Facility investment
2.1
2.0
0.9
5.2
-1.0
2.2
3.8
0.1
4.0
Construction investment
0.2
4.4
-2.6
-1.3
0.0
-0.9
2.0
1.9
1.2
Goods exports3
2.8
0.9
5.9
1.7
2.3
5.4
2.9
-0.5
2.8
Goods imports
-1.9
3.8
4.4
0.7
1.8
6.1
2.0
-2.1
3.9
-0.7
1.0
0.5
1.2
-0.5
0.5
0.5
2.6
-0.7
GDI
3
*At 2000 constant prices, seasonally adjusted 1. Preliminary 2. Wholesale and retail sales, hotel and restaurants, transportation and storage, communication services, financial and insurance services, real estate, business services, public administration, defense and social security, educational services, healthcare and social welfare services and other services are included. 3. FOB basis
Korean government measures to boost FDI As the Korean government estimates additional foreign direct investment (FDI) will soon follow after the conclusion of Korea-US free trade agreement, foreign investors in Korea will be able to get better support on issues such as tax incentives and ways to cut distribution costs. The government passed several new plans aiming to attract more FDI at a meeting presided over by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance and Economy Okyu Kwon, on April 20, 2007. Korean manufacturers working with foreign-invested firms, even if they have no foreign stakes, will be allowed to do business in the foreign investment zone (FIZ), albeit on a limited basis. Until now, only foreign firms could open a factory within the FIZ. With the change, foreign investors in FIZ are expected to save distribution costs and streamline operations with greater efficiency. In addition, more areas including Daesan county in South Chungcheong province, will be designated as FIZ, where tax benefits and cash support are available for foreign invested firms. An ombudsman system will be up and running to solve foreign investor inconveniences. Among measures to create a favorable investment environment for foreign investors, more international schools will be built and the government will examine ways to increase television broadcasting programs which provide English subtitles. Also, foreigners and expatriates will be obliged to join the state-run medical insurance program.
46
May 2007
FDI outflow and inflow in the January-March period Korea’s foreign direct investment (FDI) outflow (notification basis) during the first quarter of 2007 rose 0.4 percent year-on-year to US$3.84 billion. The moderate increase was attributable to high comparison base set in 2006. Investment in mining, real estate and construction, which surged last year, substantially dropped. FDI outflow to Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore, which recorded more than 100 percent growth last year, reversed its course to indicate downward trends. Meantime, investment by SMEs and individuals kept increasing while investment by large companies fell. (US$ billion)
2005
2006
2007
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
FDI outflow
9.03 (14.3)*
3.83 (89.5)
3.32 (78.9)
5.39 (89.9)
5.93 (142.1)
18.44 (104.1)
3.84 (0.4)
Notified cases
4,561 (16.3)
1,198 (23.3)
1,370 (17.3)
1,307 (8.8)
1,374 (12.6)
5,249 (15.1)
53.9 (89.9)
* Figures in parenthesis refer to percentage change from same period in previous year.
By country, the FDI outflow was concentrated on China and the US. SK Networks and Hynix Semiconductor led investment in China while Samsung Electronics driving investment in the US. Investment increase in Japan, Cambodia and Kazakhstan was led by real estate. By industry, investing in mining, real estate and construction dropped while manufacturing and wholesales and retail sales posting solid growth. By company size, investment by large companies fell 17.5 percent affected by decrease in mining and telecommunications while investment by SMEs and individuals rose. Meantime, inbound FDI (notification basis) for the first three months of this year decreased 27.6 percent year-on-year to US$1,599 million mainly due to the absence of large scale investments over US$0.1 billion.
KORUS FTA to add 340,000 jobs for a decade The Korea-US free trade agreement (KORUS FTA) is expected to create 340,000 more jobs in Korea and increase Korean consumers’ welfare by 20 trillion won with consumer price reduction and improved service qualities for 10 years from the enforcement of the pact, according to a joint study released on April 30 by 11 state-run think tanks including the Korea Development Institute (KDI) and the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP). Also the FTA with the US is forecast to boost Korea’s real GDP by 6.0 percent or 80 trillion won and its total trade account surplus by US$2 billion a year driven by an annual US$0.46 billion expansion in trade surplus with the US. The study resulted from comprehensive and elaborate analysis on the economic effect of the KORUS FTA based on Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model combined with
Economic Bulletin
47
microeconomic analysis on vertical business sectors. The CGE model is the most generally used tool to measure the economic effect of FTAs with correlated domestic and external sectors reflected. Meanwhile, the Korean experts, businesses as well as the public are generally positive about the FTA with the US, according to separate surveys. In a recent survey conducted by KDI of 253 economic experts, 65.6 percent said they found the results of the FTA negotiations to be “satisfactory.” The Korea Trade Commission’s survey of 600 companies also revealed that 64.5 percent of the respondents looked favorably on the FTA talks. In addition, 61.5 percent of the Koreans believe the agreement will benefit their country, up 8 percentage points from February, according to a poll conducted by the Gallup Korea commissioned by the KORUS FTA Industry Alliance, a private pro-free trade organization.
Financial firms encouraged to expand overseas Korea’s financial holding companies will be allowed to take over foreign financial firms regardless of business categories while local private equity funds will be able to set up offshore special purpose companies, according to a comprehensive deregulation plan unveiled by the Ministry of Finance and Economy on April 25. The new measures were designed to help local financial services companies make inroad into foreign markets to create new earnings sources and become globally competitive as the domestic sector has become saturated. Under the new plan, financial firms will be under eased regulations on required share ownership in their overseas units with the approval of the Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC). Currently, financial services companies should own at least a 30 percent stake of their listed units or a 50 percent stake of their unlisted units. In addition, local insurers will be approved to own more than a 15 percent stake in private equity funds if the FSC approves them to put the buyout funds under their wings. The state-run Korea Development Bank (KDB) plans to set up a private equity fund with institutional investors this year and the state-run Korea Investment Corporation (KIC) will also directly invest part of its funds in overseas markets as a series of the government’s efforts to diversify risks from financial firms’ overseas expansion through co-investments by private and public sectors. A committee headed by the deputy finance and economy ministry will be set up to coordinate the government-wide efforts. The government also plans to establish the so called “financial hub assistance center” to provide comprehensive supports and build an overseas integration information system (OIIS) by July to provide up-to-date information for financial firms looking to advance overseas.
48
May 2007
Korea revises Financial Industry Act The Act on the Structural Improvement of the Financial Industry and its enforcement decree were revised and took effect on April 27, 2007. Accordingly, the Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) amended supervisory regulations to clarify the provisions that were previously mandated to Financial Supervisory Service (FSS), such as the requirements of ex post facto approval for over-ownership of shares. Firstly, those who fail to receive approval for over-ownership of shares from FSC beforehand can exceptionally get the ex post facto approval when their conditions conform to one of these five cases; repayment of actual goods after liquidation of private equity funds (PEF); debt swap under the Act on Restoration of Debtor and Liquidation; debt swap under the financial institution agreements to encourage corporate restructuring; acquirement by securities firms issuing equity-linked securities (ELS) with the intension of risk aversion; and/or acquirement by private sector social overhead capitals (SOC) or property-investing firms. Secondly, the total number of issued voting stocks is defined as the total sum minus nonvoting stocks. The shares owned by the third party through private or public equity funds are included as the share ownership. Thirdly, concerning ex post facto regular audit, qualifications for financial institution overowning shares in other firms are examined every two years by the governor of FSS and then the results are reported to FSC. Particularly, when a financial institution changes share ownership of other financial firms in the same category of businesses, audit can be conducted whenever necessary. Lastly, in case of merger and conversion of financial institutions, merger approval is subject to the same standards applied to the establishment while conversion can be approved by both establishment and closure standards.
Securities firms spur to improve competitiveness Domestic securities companies have increased shareholders’ equity and diversified business activities according to the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS)’s assessment of recent developments in the securities industry. The positive trend would likely help them provide sophisticated investment banking services once the new legislation, tentatively titled “Financial Investment Services and Capital Market Act,” takes effect. Securities firms conducted five seasoned equity offerings (SEO) and initial public offerings (IPO) in the first quarter of 2007 raising a total of 752.5 billon won, with two more offerings scheduled in May. They have also been increasing their retained earnings; keeping 82.8
Economic Bulletin
49
percent of their record high net income of 3.19 trillion won in fiscal year 2005 ended March 2006. As a result of these efforts, domestic securities companies’ shareholders’ equity rose 34.3 percent in the past two years to 4.8 trillion won. The securities industry is focusing on expanding their asset management services such as the cash management account (CMA) and the repurchase agreement (RP) to reduce their dependence on brokerage commissions. The outstanding amount in CMAs totaled 11.3 trillion won at the end of February 2007, a hundredfold increase from two years ago, as CMA gains popularity with high liquidity and returns. Securities companies also increased their investment in private equity funds (PEF) by investing in nine PEFs, as a limited partner and five PEFs as a general partner with a subscription total of 526.5 billion won. Besides, securities companies’ opening of overseas offices has been on the rise. As of the end of 2006, 11 securities companies were operating 34 overseas offices in eight countries. In 2007, securities companies are planning to open seven overseas offices in China and other Southeast Asian countries.
50
May 2007
Statistical Appendices Tables & Figures 1. National accounts 2. Production, shipment and inventory 3. Production capacity and operation ratio 4. Consumer goods sales index 5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment, and estimated facility investment index 7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received 8. Composite indexes of business cycle indicators and BSI 9. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment and earnings 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates
Economic Bulletin
51
1. National accounts (year-on-year change, %, 2000 constant prices) Real GDP Period Agri., fores. & fisheries
Manufacturing
Gross fixed capital formation
Final consumption expenditure
Construction
Facilities
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
7.0 4.7 -6.9 9.5 8.5
2.3 4.6 -6.4 5.9 1.2
6.4 4.9 -7.9 21.8 17.0
7.0 3.2 -10.6 9.7 7.1
8.4 -2.3 -22.9 8.3 12.2
7.5 2.3 -12.4 -3.8 -0.8
9.2 -9.6 -42.3 36.8 33.6
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006P
3.8 7.0 3.1 4.7 4.2 5.0
1.1 -3.5 -5.3 9.2 0.7 -2.6
2.2 7.6 5.5 11.1 7.1 8.4
4.9 7.6 -0.3 0.4 3.9 4.5
-0.2 6.6 4.0 2.1 2.4 3.2
6.0 5.3 7.9 1.1 -0.2 -0.4
-9.0 7.5 -1.2 3.8 5.7 7.6
2001
I II III IV
3.5 3.7 3.4 4.6
-2.4 2.4 0.9 1.2
3.4 4.1 0.0 1.3
2.3 4.2 5.7 7.3
-3.7 -3.5 -0.5 6.2
1.0 0.8 9.6 10.7
-9.4 -10.6 -14.2 -1.3
2002
I II III IV
6.5 7.0 6.8 7.5
6.7 -2.7 -3.2 -5.5
5.2 6.2 7.4 11.4
9.4 8.5 7.3 5.3
7.7 7.3 2.4 9.1
11.0 6.0 -2.4 8.4
3.3 8.0 9.1 9.6
2003
I II III IV
3.8 2.2 2.3 4.1
-3.3 0.5 -7.8 -6.9
5.8 3.3 4.2 8.6
1.2 -0.6 -1.0 -0.9
4.7 4.2 2.7 4.3
7.7 7.9 7.7 8.3
2.3 -0.4 -4.6 -2.0
2004
I II III IV
5.4 5.7 4.7 3.3
10.1 4.2 4.3 13.3
11.9 13.6 11.7 7.7
-0.4 0.7 0.1 1.3
2.4 4.7 2.9 -1.1
4.9 3.8 1.0 -3.3
-0.1 6.4 6.8 2.4
2005
I II III IV
2.9 3.4 4.8 5.5
-0.1 3.1 1.9 -0.5
5.4 5.1 7.5 10.1
2.0 3.9 4.8 4.9
0.5 2.1 2.2 4.3
-3.3 1.1 -0.1 0.4
3.8 3.1 5.0 10.8
2006P I II III IV
6.3 5.1 4.8 4.0
0.9 -3.3 -4.7 -2.0
9.9 9.3 9.0 5.7
5.2 4.3 4.3 4.3
3.5 0.1 4.6 4.5
0.2 -5.0 -0.1 3.2
7.0 7.2 11.1 5.3
2007P I
4.0
2.5
3.9
4.3
2.1
4.3
10.3
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
52
May 2007
Growth rate by economic activity
Growth rate by expenditure on GDP
Economic Bulletin
53
2. Production, shipment and inventory See graphs 6-1, 6-3, 7-1, 7-2 & 7-3 (constant prices, 2000 = 100)
Period
2004 2005 2006
Production index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Shipment index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Inventory index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Service production index
Y-o-Y change (%)
126.2 134.1 147.6
10.2 6.3 10.1
124.7 131.7 142.0
9.1 5.6 7.8
121.2 124.1 131.8
9.3 2.4 6.2
118.3 122.6 129.0
0.7 3.6 5.2
2004
I II III IV
122.8 127.1 121.7 133.5
11.4 12.8 10.9 6.4
121.2 125.5 120.3 131.9
10.2 11.0 10.0 5.7
117.2 115.9 116.1 121.2
4.5 2.9 4.9 9.3
116.0 119.3 116.6 121.2
2.2 1.0 -0.4 -0.1
2005
I II III IV
127.1 131.6 130.4 147.3
3.5 3.5 7.1 10.3
125.6 129.9 128.0 143.2
3.6 3.5 6.4 8.6
127.6 124.3 122.8 124.1
8.9 7.2 5.8 2.4
116.9 122.4 123.0 128.3
0.8 2.6 5.5 5.9
2006
I II III IV
143.4 146.7 145.2 155.0
12.8 11.5 11.3 5.2
137.8 141.6 139.8 148.6
9.7 9.0 9.2 3.8
132.4 133.6 130.8 131.8
3.8 7.5 6.5 6.2
124.1 129.0 128.5 134.5
6.2 5.4 4.5 4.8
2007P I
148.2
3.3
143.8
4.4
140.3
6.0
130.9
5.5
2004 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
115.5 121.8 131.0 126.9 127.3 127.0 122.4 119.6 123.0 133.0 134.3 133.1
4.8 17.6 12.2 11.4 13.9 12.9 12.9 10.4 9.4 5.3 9.6 4.1
114.0 119.7 129.9 125.8 125.1 125.5 120.4 118.3 122.3 132.1 133.2 130.3
4.2 15.1 11.4 10.3 11.5 11.2 12.3 9.7 8.1 4.8 9.2 3.1
114.2 116.7 117.2 115.0 117.4 115.9 117.4 117.3 116.1 116.3 119.0 121.2
4.1 5.3 4.5 1.3 3.5 2.9 3.3 3.5 4.9 5.7 8.4 9.3
114.1 111.9 121.7 118.3 119.0 119.6 116.2 114.4 117.5 117.8 118.2 126.5
0.0 3.9 2.5 0.6 0.6 1.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.2 -0.7 -0.4 0.6
2005 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
131.9 112.6 136.8 131.1 131.9 131.7 131.0 127.7 132.4 143.7 150.1 148.2
14.2 -7.6 4.4 3.3 3.6 3.7 7.0 6.8 7.6 8.0 11.8 11.3
128.4 112.5 135.8 129.3 129.3 131.0 128.2 126.3 129.5 140.3 146.3 142.9
12.6 -6.0 4.5 2.8 3.4 4.4 6.5 6.8 5.9 6.2 9.8 9.7
128.6 127.3 127.6 127.8 128.1 124.3 126.7 122.7 122.8 122.7 122.6 124.1
12.6 9.1 8.9 11.1 9.1 7.2 7.9 4.6 5.8 5.5 3.0 2.4
115.2 111.4 123.7 120.6 122.3 122.9 121.5 121.3 124.0 123.4 125.4 134.7
1.0 -0.4 1.6 1.9 2.8 2.8 4.6 6.0 5.5 4.8 6.1 6.5
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
142.1 136.7 151.4 145.1 148.5 146.5 137.4 142.6 155.7 151.6 160.8 152.7
7.7 21.4 10.7 10.7 12.6 11.2 4.9 11.7 17.6 5.5 7.1 3.0
135.2 132.2 146.0 140.1 142.8 141.9 130.5 138.5 150.5 144.4 154.1 147.2
5.3 17.5 7.5 8.4 10.4 8.3 1.8 9.7 16.2 2.9 5.3 3.0
128.1 130.2 132.4 132.5 134.7 133.6 135.8 131.7 130.8 131.6 131.3 131.8
-0.4 2.3 3.8 3.7 5.2 7.5 7.2 7.3 6.5 7.3 7.1 6.2
124.1 118.1 130.2 128.5 130.2 128.2 124.9 128.0 132.5 129.0 132.5 141.9
7.7 6.0 5.3 6.6 6.5 4.3 2.8 5.5 6.9 4.5 5.7 5.4
2007 1 2P 3P
152.7 135.9 156.1
7.5 -0.6 3.1
144.6 133.8 153.1
7.0 1.2 4.9
142.1 141.4 140.3
10.9 8.6 6.0
130.3 126.0 136.5
5.0 6.7 4.8
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
54
May 2007
3. Production capacity and operation ratio See graph 6-2
Period
2004 2005 2006
Y-o-Y change (%)
Operation ratio index (2000=100)
Y-o-Y change (%)
Average operation ratio (%)
115.1 119.0 123.1
4.8 3.4 3.4
102.5 102.1 103.1
2.8 -0.4 1.0
80.3 79.7 81.1
Production capacity index (2000=100)
2004
I II III IV
113.0 115.3 115.6 116.5
3.9 5.1 5.5 4.8
101.0 104.9 98.3 105.8
3.9 4.0 3.5 0.1
80.9 80.6 79.6 80.2
2005
I II III IV
117.2 118.1 118.9 121.7
3.7 2.4 2.9 4.5
99.4 104.1 98.7 106.0
-1.6 -0.8 0.4 0.2
79.5 79.5 79.9 80.1
2006
I II III IV
122.6 122.8 122.7 124.3
4.6 4.0 3.2 2.1
102.2 105.0 100.8 104.4
2.8 0.9 2.1 -1.5
81.8 80.7 80.6 81.3
2007P I
124.4
1.5
102.2
0.0
81.6
2004 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
112.3 112.9 113.8 114.7 115.6 115.7 115.6 115.6 115.6 116.1 116.5 116.9
3.8 4.3 3.5 4.5 5.3 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 4.9 4.6 4.9
94.3 100.7 108.0 105.4 104.9 104.5 100.0 96.5 98.5 106.6 107.2 103.6
-2.7 9.6 5.0 2.3 5.2 4.6 6.4 3.0 1.2 -2.4 4.1 -1.2
79.8 82.7 80.1 80.7 81.6 79.6 79.1 79.8 80.0 79.8 80.6 80.1
2005 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
117.1 117.2 117.3 117.3 118.4 118.5 118.5 118.6 119.5 121.0 122.0 122.1
4.3 3.8 3.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 3.4 4.2 4.7 4.4
102.7 86.8 108.6 104.8 104.0 103.6 101.8 96.2 98.2 104.9 108.7 104.5
8.9 -13.8 0.6 -0.6 -0.9 -0.9 1.8 -0.3 -0.3 -1.6 1.4 0.9
80.8 77.3 80.4 79.4 79.0 80.0 80.6 79.8 79.2 79.2 81.3 79.9
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
122.5 122.5 122.7 122.7 122.8 122.8 122.8 122.6 122.6 124.1 124.3 124.4
4.6 4.5 4.6 4.6 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.4 2.6 2.6 1.9 1.9
99.8 97.5 109.3 103.3 106.2 105.5 94.9 98.0 109.4 101.2 109.7 102.4
-2.8 12.3 0.6 -1.4 2.1 1.8 -6.8 1.9 11.4 -3.5 0.9 -2.0
83.1 80.9 81.3 79.3 80.9 81.9 76.7 81.2 84.0 81.9 81.6 80.5
2007 1 2P 3P
124.4 124.4 124.5
1.6 1.6 1.5
104.2 93.0 109.5
4.4 -4.6 0.2
81.4 82.0 81.4
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
Economic Bulletin
55
4. Consumer goods sales index See graphs 2-2, 2-3, 2-4 & 2-5 (constant prices, 2000 = 100)
Period
2004 2005 2006
Consumer goods sales index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Y-o-Y change (%)
Semi-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
116.2 121.0 126.7
1.0 4.1 4.7
117.1 124.7 138.4
3.3 6.5 11.0
115.8 124.9 131.3
3.9 7.9 5.1
116.0 117.4 118.7
-1.4 1.2 1.1
2004
I II III IV
114.3 115.9 113.7 121.0
0.5 1.7 0.7 1.3
110.6 115.3 117.6 125.0
-2.2 0.8 4.9 9.8
112.7 117.5 101.9 131.3
1.0 7.5 3.6 4.0
117.0 115.4 117.3 114.1
1.7 -0.5 -2.4 -4.2
2005
I II III IV
115.8 120.0 119.0 129.4
1.3 3.5 4.7 6.9
114.5 122.9 126.4 135.1
3.5 6.6 7.5 8.1
115.5 125.9 111.7 146.6
2.5 7.1 9.6 11.7
116.6 115.7 118.7 118.4
-0.3 0.3 1.2 3.8
2006
I II III IV
121.9 127.3 122.4 135.2
5.3 6.1 2.9 4.5
127.7 136.8 140.8 148.1
11.5 11.3 11.4 9.6
124.1 134.3 114.9 151.9
7.4 6.7 2.9 3.6
118.0 119.2 116.7 120.8
1.2 3.0 -1.7 2.0
2007P I
130.7
7.2
149.4
17.0
131.8
6.2
120.8
2.4
2004 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
120.2 107.7 115.0 115.5 117.2 114.9 113.7 107.4 119.9 118.7 119.3 125.1
-1.6 3.3 0.2 1.3 -0.4 4.3 1.3 -1.1 1.7 -0.2 0.3 3.7
110.2 108.3 113.3 117.6 112.7 115.5 122.5 113.3 117.0 122.8 122.6 129.6
-6.3 1.6 -1.6 0.1 -2.7 5.2 6.0 6.0 2.8 5.0 10.0 14.6
116.7 107.0 114.3 119.5 124.2 108.7 104.2 88.3 113.2 130.0 132.4 131.5
-0.6 7.2 -2.9 5.3 6.4 11.4 6.4 -0.9 4.7 5.5 1.9 4.5
126.9 107.8 116.2 112.5 116.1 117.6 113.7 113.6 124.6 111.3 111.4 119.7
0.2 2.5 2.5 0.2 -2.5 0.9 -3.1 -4.3 0.0 -5.5 -5.2 -1.9
2005 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
115.5 111.7 120.1 119.0 121.7 119.3 119.9 114.5 122.5 123.4 127.6 137.2
-3.9 3.7 4.4 3.0 3.8 3.8 5.5 6.6 2.2 4.0 7.0 9.7
114.3 106.7 122.6 121.5 122.7 124.4 136.6 124.7 117.8 125.5 135.3 144.5
3.7 -1.5 8.2 3.3 8.9 7.7 11.5 10.1 0.7 2.2 10.4 11.5
115.7 107.9 122.9 126.7 131.6 119.3 113.7 97.8 123.6 141.4 143.0 155.5
-0.9 0.8 7.5 6.0 6.0 9.8 9.1 10.8 9.2 8.8 8.0 18.3
116.1 116.1 117.6 114.0 116.4 116.7 114.5 117.4 124.3 113.8 116.4 124.9
-8.5 7.7 1.2 1.3 0.3 -0.8 0.7 3.3 -0.2 2.2 4.5 4.3
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
126.0 113.3 126.5 125.6 129.7 126.5 118.9 119.4 129.0 129.8 134.1 141.7
9.1 1.4 5.3 5.5 6.6 6.0 -0.8 4.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 3.3
122.3 123.9 136.9 131.2 136.6 142.5 135.6 141.0 145.9 136.6 151.3 156.5
7.0 16.1 11.7 8.0 11.3 14.5 -0.7 13.1 23.9 8.8 11.8 8.3
125.6 115.9 130.8 137.7 141.2 123.9 115.7 99.7 129.2 141.4 152.7 161.6
8.6 7.4 6.4 8.7 7.3 3.9 1.8 1.9 4.5 0.0 6.8 3.9
128.1 106.6 119.2 117.1 120.7 119.7 111.9 117.9 120.3 120.8 116.7 124.9
10.3 -8.2 1.4 2.7 3.7 2.6 -2.3 0.4 -3.2 6.2 0.3 0.0
2007 1 2P 3P
129.4 127.0 135.7
2.7 12.1 7.3
148.2 139.2 160.8
21.2 12.3 17.5
132.1 124.1 139.3
5.2 7.1 6.5
118.7 122.2 121.4
-7.3 14.6 1.8
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
56
Durable goods
May 2007
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index See graph 2-6
Period
2004 2005 2006
Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2000=100) Y-o-Y change (%)
Consumer sentiment index Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
105.8 108.0 113.3
-1.4 2.1 4.9
106.4 112.6 124.0
-4.7 5.8 10.1
103.6 104.2 107.8
Y-o-Y change (%)
Present Expectations situation index index
2004
I II III IV
107.2 104.9 102.5 108.7
0.2 0.3 -1.6 -4.1
110.4 108.5 99.6 107.3
-2.2 -4.0 -5.5 -7.1
104.8 101.3 101.7 106.5
-1.1 0.6 3.5 0.6 0.7 -1.5 -3.9
-
-
2005
I II III IV
102.4 105.3 107.7 116.6
-4.5 0.4 5.1 7.3
101.8 111.2 111.5 126.0
-7.8 2.5 11.9 17.4
100.6 101.3 104.7 110.4
-4.0 0.0 2.9 3.7
-
-
2006
I II III IV
109.4 111.3 113.4 119.2
6.8 5.7 5.3 2.2
116.1 125.1 121.7 133.2
14.0 12.5 9.1 5.7
105.0 104.4 109.4 112.6
4.4 3.1 4.5 2.0
-
-
2007P I
114.3
4.5
129.6
11.6
107.8
2.7
-
-
2004 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
106.2 103.5 112.0 107.9 103.5 103.2 102.5 100.7 104.4 108.5 108.8 108.9
-5.7 3.7 3.2 1.6 -1.4 0.7 -0.3 -1.9 -2.5 -5.5 -0.3 -6.2
103.3 112.1 115.7 112.6 106.7 106.1 102.4 96.6 99.8 108.7 109.1 104.1
-9.0 2.2 0.3 -3.0 -6.7 -2.1 -2.9 -3.0 -10.2 -8.0 -3.5 -9.9
106.8 98.5 109.0 104.2 100.0 99.8 100.7 100.9 103.6 105.6 105.3 108.6
-4.8 3.2 3.7 2.8 -0.8 0.3 -0.8 -2.5 -1.1 -5.7 -0.5 -5.2
101.2 99.0 96.4 103.0 97.1 94.1 90.8 88.3 90.1 89.1 87.8 86.5
72.6 71.9 68.5 74.9 70.7 67.3 66.2 63.1 65.0 65.1 62.8 62.2
2005 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.2 91.7 108.2 103.9 104.9 107.1 106.7 107.0 109.4 113.8 117.6 118.4
0.9 -11.4 -3.4 -3.7 1.4 3.8 4.1 6.3 4.8 4.9 8.1 8.7
102.1 91.4 112.0 107.5 110.6 115.4 116.1 108.1 110.4 122.4 128.9 126.8
-1.2 -18.5 -3.2 -4.5 3.7 8.8 13.4 11.9 10.6 12.6 18.1 21.8
106.9 90.3 104.5 100.6 101.1 102.1 101.5 105.2 107.3 107.8 110.2 113.2
0.1 -8.3 -4.1 -3.5 1.1 2.3 0.8 4.3 3.6 2.1 4.7 4.2
92.5 102.5 105.7 104.7 102.2 97.8 97.2 96.7 99.1 100.0 101.5 103.0
66.5 83.2 89.6 90.2 85.5 79.7 78.9 78.3 81.2 83.4 84.9 85.3
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.4 103.1 114.6 108.8 112.0 113.0 104.7 110.5 124.9 114.1 122.8 120.7
3.0 12.4 5.9 4.7 6.8 5.5 -1.9 3.3 14.2 0.3 4.4 1.9
112.3 112.5 123.5 118.1 125.5 131.8 110.3 117.4 137.3 126.8 139.4 133.4
10.0 23.1 10.3 9.9 13.5 14.2 -5 8.6 24.4 3.6 8.1 5.2
107.9 97.8 109.2 103.7 105.3 104.2 102.2 107.5 118.4 107.8 115.1 115.0
0.9 8.3 4.5 3.1 4.2 2.1 0.7 2.2 10.3 0.0 4.4 1.6
104.5 103.8 103.4 100.6 98.0 97.4 94.3 93.7 94.8 93.9 95.2 93.7
88.4 89.0 90.1 87.2 83.0 81.9 78.7 77.8 78.9 80.7 77.3 77.1
2007 1 2 3 4
117.5 107.2P 118.3P -
6.4 4.0P 3.2P -
127.5 120.6P 140.6P -
13.5 7.2P 13.8P -
113.1 101.5P 108.9P -
4.8 3.8P -0.3P -
96.1 98.1 97.8 100.1
79.3 82.3 83.3 87.4
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
Economic Bulletin
57
6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment and estimated facility investment index See graph 3-2 Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won) Period
2005 2006
Estimated facility investment index (2000=100)
Domestic machinery shipment excluding ship (2000=100)
Total
Public
Private
24,260 27,702
2,472 2,515
21,879 25,188
10,195 13,071
107.4 115.3
101.8 106.6
Manufacturing
2005
I II III IV
6,207 6,008 5,796 6,248
693 388 580 811
5,514 5,620 5,217 5,437
2,632 2,800 2,330 2,433
104.6 108.1 103.6 113.3
97.2 104.8 98.5 106.8
2006
I II III IV
6,779 7,259 6,670 6,994
293 559 671 991
6,486 6,700 5,999 6,003
3,405 3,531 3,060 3,074
111.1 115.3 115.8 119.1
101.9 108.2 102.4 114.0
2007P I
7,801
337
7,465
3,755
123.5
108.6
2005 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,938 1,968 1,890 1,928 1,929 2,391
224 221 134 235 145 431
1,714 1,747 1,756 1,693 1,784 1,960
780 754 797 727 798 908
110.8 102.0 98.1 107.5 109.6 122.8
101.8 96.5 97.1 98.2 100.6 121.5
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2,022 2,324 2,434 2,377 2,219 2,664 1,892 2,264 2,514 2,587 2,123 2,283
81 96 117 94 93 372 72 256 342 635 71 286
1,941 2,228 2,317 2,282 2,126 2,292 1,820 2,007 2,172 1,95 2,052 1,999
960 1,187 1,259 1,225 1,070 1,236 86 1,016 1,178 1,015 999 1,060
102.3 103.5 127.5 117.1 116.1 112.6 115.1 116.7 115.5 113.5 118.1 125.6
93.1 96.4 116.2 104.9 111.9 107.9 95.3 101.4 110.6 101.2 111.0 129.7
2007 1 2P 3P
2,525 2,724 2,552
78 168 91
2,451 2,556 2,461
1,253 1,337 1,166
118.1 116.7 135.7
102.8 103.0 120.0
1.5 1.42
-3.6 1.7
2.1 15.6
-3.8 28.2
6.3 7.4
0.6 4.7
Y-o-Y change (%) 2005 2006 2005
I II III IV
-6.9 -12.2 14.0 17.5
7.7 -51.5 38.9 15.7
-8.4 -7.0 11.7 17.8
-10.3 -6.5 2.7 1.4
5.0 2.5 4.2 14.0
-0.3 -1.1 2.4 1.8
2006
I II III IV
9.2 20.8 15.1 11.9
-57.7 44.1 15.9 22.2
17.6 19.2 15.0 10.4
29.4 26.1 31.3 26.4
6.2 6.7 11.8 5.1
4.8 3.2 4.0 6.7
2007P I
15.1
14.8
15.1
10.3
11.2
6.6
2005 7 8 9 10 11 12
26.2 18.3 0.1 0.7 11.7 42.8
179.8 116.5 -43.0 51.0 -28.8 26.2
17.8 11.9 6.3 -3.8 17.1 47.1
13.1 1.7 -5.0 -24.9 3.0 38.4
11.1 1.4 0.2 7.2 13.0 21.7
4.6 1.3 1.0 -2.9 1.5 6.2
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-2.3 37.5 -0.6 15.3 12.3 35.1 -2.4 15.0 33.0 34.2 10.1 -4.5
-17.3 31.5 -77.6 -30.7 -16.9 165.1 -68.0 16.4 155.5 170.7 -51.2 -33.9
-1.5 37.8 20.3 18.6 14.1 25.1 6.2 14.9 23.7 15.3 15.0 2.0
-2.6 61.9 37.7 24.7 12.6 42.6 11.2 34.7 47.9 39.6 25.1 16.8
1.5 4.7 11.7 13.9 5.7 0.7 3.9 14.4 17.7 5.6 7.8 2.3
1.3 11.1 2.9 1.0 8.2 0.8 -6.4 5.1 13.9 3.1 10.3 6.7
2007 1 2P 3P
24.9 17.2 4.9
-3.5 75.7 -22.3
26.1 14.7 6.2
30.4 12.7 -7.3
15.4 12.8 6.4
10.4 6.8 3.3
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
58
May 2007
7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received See graphs 4-2 & 4-3 (billion won)
Period
2005 2006
Type of order
Value of construction completed (total)
Public
75,831 78,637
Type of order
Private
Domestic construction orders received (total)
Public
Private
23,031 23,470
50,144 52,623
83,489 91,001
21,825 20,460
58,975 66,550
2005
I II III IV
15,593 19,900 18,627 21,711
4,707 6,063 5,516 6,745
10,419 13,215 12,446 14,065
17,901 24,915 16,817 23,856
4,349 5,918 3,432 8,126
12,727 17,878 13,213 15,157
2006
I II III IV
16,254 19,849 19,520 23,014
4,158 5,709 6,010 7,593
11,561 13,510 12,918 14,633
16,377 21,249 23,049 30,327
3,807 4,147 4,159 8,347
12,227 16,801 18,074 19,447
2007P
I
17,308
4,920
11,807
20,678
5,683
14,893
2005
7 8 9 10 11 12
6,015 6,179 6,433 6,433 7,135 8,143
1,759 1,744 2,012 1,846 2,063 2,836
4,048 4,207 4,192 4,339 4,785 4,941
6,667 5,052 5,098 5,255 6,233 12,368
1,111 1,041 1,279 1,258 2,187 4,682
5,455 4,000 3,758 3,939 3,933 7,286
2006
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
4,977 4,902 6,376 6,354 6,461 7,034 5,873 6,286 7,361 6,826 7,533 8,655
1,291 1,218 1,649 1,790 1,841 2,078 1,724 1,890 2,396 2,192 2,271 3,130
3,525 3,521 4,515 4,375 4,415 4,720 3,989 4,229 4,701 4,435 5,009 5,189
5,846 4,515 6,017 5,266 6,744 9,239 7,123 5,808 10,118 5,245 9,031 16,051
901 1,518 1,388 1,229 1,403 1,515 987 785 2,387 1,609 2,796 3,941
4,809 2,893 4,525 3,992 5,249 7,560 6,020 4,598 7,457 3,503 6,101 9,843
2007
1 2P 3P
5,498 5,307 6,502
1,473 1,533 1,913
3,854 3,602 4,352
6,411 6,326 7,942
1,562 1,830 2,291
4,822 4,488 5,584
4.1 3.7
-3.7 1.9
7.5 4.9
7.3 9.0
-1.7 -6.3
14.5 12.8
Y-o-Y change (%) 2005 2006 2005
I II III IV
0.3 7.9 2.1 5.4
-3.9 0.4 -9.3 -2.2
2.0 11.6 7.3 8.2
19.1 36.7 13.1 -19.5
18.2 70.7 -5.0 -29.0
15.3 29.5 27.1 -6.9
2006
I II III IV
4.2 -0.3 4.8 6.0
-11.7 -5.8 9.0 12.6
11.0 2.2 3.8 4.0
-8.5 -14.7 37.1 27.1
-12.4 -29.9 21.2 2.7
-3.9 -6.0 36.8 28.3
2007P I
6.5
18.3
2.1
26.3
49.3
21.8
2005 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.8 2.8 0.8 1.8 10.0 4.5
-4.2 -12.1 -11.1 -4.8 -4.4 1.3
5.7 9.4 6.9 4.2 16.5 4.5
4.3 16.2 23.7 -36.5 0.8 -18.6
-15.3 13.5 -7.5 -59.7 -2.9 -23.0
20.7 18.7 50.0 -18.2 2.5 -4.4
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0.6 8.0 4.3 0.2 -0.8 -0.2 -2.4 1.7 14.4 6.1 5.6 6.3
-12.5 -13.5 -9.6 -6.4 -5.5 -5.6 -2.0 8.4 19.1 18.7 10.1 10.4
6.5 16.6 10.5 3.4 1.1 2.3 -1.4 0.5 12.1 2.2 4.7 5.0
10.9 29.0 -34.1 -17.7 -21.7 -6.8 6.8 15.0 98.5 -0.2 44.9 29.8
-34.6 158.0 -41.7 -35.8 -26.6 -27.6 -11.2 -24.6 86.6 27.9 27.9 -15.8
39.7 0.7 -29.4 -8.5 -18.6 7.0 10.4 14.9 98.4 -11.1 55.1 35.1
2007 1 2P 3P
10.5 8.3 2.0
14.1 25.9 16.0
9.3 2.3 -3.6
9.7 40.1 32.0
73.4 20.5 65.0
0.3 55.1 23.4
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
Economic Bulletin
59
8. Composite indexes of business cycle indicators and BSI See graphs 13-1, 13-2 & 13-3
Y-o-Y change (%)
Coincident index (2000=100)
Cycle of coincident index (2000=100)
BSI (actual)
BSI (outlook)
118.2 118.7 118.8 119.1 119.5 119.6 119.6 119.4 119.4 119.8 119.9 120.3
5.0 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.8 4.4 3.8 3.3 3.1 2.6 2.4
123.4 124.2 124.5 124.9 125.1 125.3 125.3 125.2 125.4 126.0 126.3 126.7
101.3 101.5 101.3 101.2 101.0 100.7 100.3 99.8 99.5 99.5 99.4 99.3
90.7 95.3 104.2 101.7 90.2 86.8 83.8 81.2 93.4 92.2 82.2 80.9
99.8 104.9 113.6 104.3 113.2 92.1 86.4 86.4 95.5 99.2 90.3 82.2
2005 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
120.3 121.0 122.3 123.0 123.6 123.8 124.7 125.6 126.4 126.9 128.0 129.2
2.0 2.3 3.1 3.4 3.7 3.8 4.3 4.9 5.3 5.5 6.1 6.8
127.1 127.2 127.9 128.2 129.2 129.9 130.9 131.7 132.2 132.3 133.3 134.2
99.2 98.8 98.9 98.7 99.1 99.2 99.6 99.8 99.7 99.4 99.7 99.9
84.6 87.2 110.7 107.0 98.2 93.4 91.7 91.0 99.2 98.0 101.8 107.1
77.8 85.7 119.2 117.6 114.1 105.1 96.5 91.7 111.4 110.2 107.8 103.8
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
130.4 130.4 130.3 130.1 130.3 130.7 130.7 131.1 132.0 133.1 134.2 134.7
7.3 6.9 6.3 5.7 5.2 4.9 4.2 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.8 4.7
135.5 136.0 136.6 136.6 137.1 137.5 137.1 137.8 138.9 141.1 142.1 142.4
100.5 100.4 100.4 100.0 99.9 99.8 99.1 99.2 99.6 100.7 101.0 100.8
95.4 90.5 111.5 99.8 94.1 94.2 79.1 85.9 99.4 99.4 103.7 100.4
102.6 102.4 118.9 112.7 110.7 98.6 94.2 93.4 107.7 103.5 104.3 101.4
2007 1 2 3 4 5
135.1 135.9 136.3P -
4.7 4.9 4.9P -
142.7 143.4 143.7P -
100.6 100.7 100.4P -
85.6 87.5 109.4 105.8 -
96.5 93.4 112.3 107.7 110.9
Period
Leading index (2000=100)
2004 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office & The Federation of Korean Industries
60
May 2007
9. Balance of payments (I) See graphs 5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 10-1 & 10-2 (million US$)
Period
2004 2005 2006P
Current balance
Goods trade balance
Exports
28,173.5 14,980.9 6,092.6
37,568.8 32,683.1 29,213.1
Imports
Services trade balance
Income trade balance
Current transfers
253,844.7 284,418.7 325,464.8
224,462.7 261,238.3 309,382.6
-8,046.1 -13,658.2 -18,762.9
1,082.8 -1,562.5 -538.6
-2,432.0 -2,481.5 -3,819.5
2004
I II III IV
6,418.4 6,856.6 7,565.4 7,333.1
8,585.4 10,060.7 9,752.9 9,169.8
59,298.9 63,974.7 61,633.9 68,937.1
52,797.5 55,269.7 54,707.8 61,687.7
-1,870.9 -1,358.1 -2,305.2 -2,511.9
497.6 -1,168.4 461.4 1,292.2
-793.7 -677.6 -343.7 -617.0
2005
I II III IV
5,263.5 2,352.1 2,198.2 5,167.1
8,750.5 8,365.8 7,234.8 8,332.0
66,807.6 69,702.8 71,097.7 76,810.7
60,626.8 63,694.9 66,228.3 70,688.3
-3,114.4 -3,368.7 -4,254.6 -2,920.5
166.4 -1,948.8 -97.3 317.2
-539.0 -696.2 -684.7 -561.6
2006P I II III IV
-1,118.4 692.0 374.9 6,144.1
5,222.6 7,413.7 6,227.9 10,349.5
73,885.0 81,473.4 82,712.8 87,393.7
72,542.1 76,719.7 80,215.8 79,905.1
-4,996.2 -3,878.9 -5,384.7 -4,503.1
-481.7 -1,648.0 608.6 982.5
-863.0 -1,194.8 -1,076.9 -684.8
2007P I
-1,519.4
6,180.7
84,816.4
82,026.8
-6,180.1
-689.6
-830.4
2005 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3,682.3 781.4 799.8 -1,202.2 1,444.3 2,110.0 1,237.6 -527.9 1,488.5 2,830.3 2,056.8 280.0
4,356.6 1,489.1 2,904.8 2,233.7 2,558.5 3,573.6 3,052.7 1,472.4 2,709.7 3,477.0 3,187.2 1,667.8
22,454.0 20,401.1 23,952.5 22,872.5 23,122.7 23,707.6 23,235.5 23,343.0 24,519.2 25,352.7 25,826.2 25,631.7
19,450.0 18,396.9 22,779.9 21,244.5 21,161.8 21,288.6 21,508.8 22,000.8 22,718.7 22,652.7 23,849.6 24,186.0
-948.6 -1,008.4 -1,157.4 -1,053.6 -1,182.2 -1,132.9 -1,484.3 -1,696.6 -1,073.7 -610.0 -875.1 -1,435.4
498.0 447.7 -779.3 -2,121.9 296.5 -123.4 -91.6 -71.1 65.4 61.8 -80.4 335.8
-223.7 -147.0 -168.3 -260.4 -228.5 -207.3 -239.2 -232.6 -212.9 -98.5 -174.9 -288.2
2006P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
91.2 -782.8 -426.8 -1,608.1 1,359.6 940.5 -392.7 -638.3 1,405.9 1,759.9 4,237.5 146.7
1,478.2 837.3 2,907.1 1,883.9 2,815.3 2,714.5 1,619.4 1,443.2 3,165.3 2,685.5 5,712.6 1,951.4
23,257.9 23,787.0 26,840.1 25,590.1 27,934.5 27,948.8 25,774.4 27,287.2 29,651.2 28,016.0 30,602.3 28,775.4
23,089.3 23,507.8 25,945.0 24,485.8 26,210.4 26,023.5 25,549.7 27,029.5 27,636.6 25,621.8 26,765.1 27,518.2
-1,644.0 -1,808.2 -1,544.0 -1,345.7 -1,354.5 -1,178.7 -1,744.0 -2,087.3 -1,553.4 -1,192.8 -1,426.3 -1,884.0
571.4 418.9 -1,472.0 -1,876.5 387.1 -158.6 44.4 311.7 252.5 461.2 236.3 285.0
-314.3 -230.8 -317.9 -269.8 -488.3 -436.7 -312.5 -305.9 -458.5 -194.0 -285.1 -205.7
2007P 1 2 3
-428.1 402.1 -1,493.4
1,292.1 2,387.3 2,501.3
28,091.0 26,239.8 30,485.6
27,681.8 25,286.3 29,055.7
-1,943.4 -2,551.1 -1,685.6
547.1 850.7 -2,087.4
-323.9 -284.8 -221.7
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea & Korea Customs Service
Economic Bulletin
61
10. Balance of payments (II) See graph 10-3 (million US$) Changes in reserve assets
Errors and omissions
-1,752.8 -2,340.4 -3,033.3
-38,710.5 -19,805.8 -22,111.7
2,938.2 68.4 -2,599.6
Period
Capital & financial account
Direct investment
Portfolio investment
Other investment
Capital transfers & acquisition of non-financial assets
2004 2005 2006P
7,598.8 4,756.5 18,618.7
4,588.3 2,010.4 -3,483.5
8,619.3 -1,728.2 -22,543.6
-3,856.0 6,814.7 47,679.1
2004
I II III IV
3,980.6 -6,066.6 -1,137.1 10,821.9
-680.6 3,163.8 144.4 1,960.7
10,260.3 -757.0 1,621.2 -2,505.2
-5,226.3 -8,002.9 -2,514.9 11,888.1
-372.8 -470.5 -387.8 -521.7
-8,746.9 -4,005.5 -6,805.7 -19,152.4
-1,652.1 3,215.5 377.4 997.4
2005
I II III IV
4,141.5 2,257.6 -504.3 -1,138.3
-194.0 1,249.7 48.8 905.9
-1,278.2 -2,575.3 -147.5 2,272.8
6,125.5 4,247.5 256.8 -3,815.1
-511.8 -664.3 -662.4 -501.9
-9,513.7 -2,817.2 -2,300.1 -5,174.8
108.7 -1,792.5 606.2 1,146.0
2006P I II III IV
6,524.4 3,684.4 4,773.7 3,636.2
-1,306.7 780.4 -3,656.5 699.3
1,436.2 -14,176.7 -7,395.3 -2,407.8
7,083.8 17,880.6 16,479.6 6,235.1
-688.9 -799.9 -654.1 -890.4
-5,679.3 -4,315.7 -3,615.4 -8,501.3
273.3 -60.7 -1,533.2 -1,279.0
2007P I
4,838.2
-959.8
-10,147.0
16,759.1
-814.1
-3,998.3
679.5
2005 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
376.1 1,061.5 2,703.9 2,430.5 1,523.1 -1,696.0 -9.0 212.7 -708.0 -1,941.8 158.5 645.0
101.6 -255.4 -40.2 1,457.1 -231.1 23.7 -440.0 327.8 161.0 74.5 160.3 671.1
-1,489.7 1,864.5 -1,653.0 -972.8 -740.7 -861.8 2,579.4 -1,103.9 -1,623.0 -3,168.6 5,406.6 34.8
1,950.3 -401.7 4,576.9 2,182.9 2,730.5 -665.9 -1,936.8 1,209.2 984.4 1,319.8 -5,213.5 78.6
-186.1 -145.9 -179.8 -236.7 -235.6 -192.0 -211.6 -220.4 -230.4 -167.5 -194.9 -139.5
-2,874.5 -1,848.6 -4,790.6 -625.4 -1,636.7 -555.1 -873.2 -450.3 -976.6 -715.9 -2,518.6 -1,940.3
-1,183.9 5.7 1,286.9 -602.9 -1,330.7 141.1 -355.4 765.5 196.1 -172.6 303.3 1,015.3
2006P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3,628.2 2,110.2 786.0 4,862.8 513.1 -1,691.5 1,730.1 1,234.9 1,808.7 -2,263.8 436.0 5,464.0
-319.4 190.4 -1,177.7 585.2 125.6 69.6 -114.2 -663.3 -2,879.0 -57.9 126.1 631.1
609.5 2,207.1 -1,380.4 -3,180.0 -7,880.1 -3,116.6 -3,669.2 -4,448.2 722.1 -614.1 -653.5 -1,140.2
3,561.3 -92.7 3,615.2 7,745.1 8,509.1 1,626.4 5,789.4 6,511.4 4,178.8 -1,328.7 1,286.9 6,276.9
-223.2 -194.6 -271.1 -287.5 -241.5 -270.9 -275.9 -165.0 -213.2 -263.1 -323.5 -303.8
-5,432.6 140.7 -387.4 -3,354.6 -495.6 -465.5 -686.0 -959.8 -1,969.6 -956.2 -2,695.1 -4,850.0
1,713.2 -1,468.1 28.2 99.9 -1,377.1 1,216.5 -651.4 363.2 -1,245.0 1,460.1 -1,978.4 -760.7
2007P 1 2 3
2,078.9 -404.0 3,163.3
-208.9 -687.6 -63.3
-1,404.0 -1,770.6 -6,972.4
4,046.8 2,257.5 10,454.8
-355.0 -203.3 -255.8
-2,350.7 -1,134.7 -512.9
699.9 1,136.6 -1,157.0
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
62
May 2007
11. Prices See graphs 11-1, 11-2 & 11-3 (2000 = 100) Consumer prices (2005=100)
Producer prices
Export & import prices
Period All Items
Commodity
Service
Core
All items
Commodity
Export
Import
2004 2005 2006
97.3 100.0 102.2
96.9 100.0 101.5
97.7 100.0 102.7
97.7 100.0 101.8
107.6 109.9 112.4
107.2 109.8 112.6
92.9 86.7 85.1
108.9 112.0 118.0
2005 7 8 9 10 11 12
100.0 100.3 100.8 100.6 100.2 100.5
99.8 100.3 101.5 101.1 99.7 100.4
100.1 100.3 100.3 100.3 100.5 100.7
100.0 100.1 100.2 100.2 100.2 100.4
109.9 110.2 110.8 111.0 110.4 110.2
109.8 110.3 111.0 111.2 110.3 109.9
87.5 87.0 88.8 89.1 86.4 85.0
114.3 116.5 118.8 118.6 115.5 114.8
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
101.1 101.3 101.9 102.0 102.2 102.0 102.4 103.0 103.3 102.8 102.3 102.6
101.1 101.1 101.1 101.3 101.6 101.0 101.5 103.0 103.1 101.8 100.7 101.2
101.1 101.4 102.3 102.5 102.6 102.7 103.0 103.1 103.4 103.4 103.4 103.6
100.6 100.8 101.4 101.5 101.9 101.9 102.1 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.3 102.5
110.9 110.9 111.0 111.8 112.5 112.5 113.0 113.9 114.2 113.1 112.5 112.6
110.7 110.7 110.9 111.9 112.8 112.9 113.5 114.7 114.9 113.3 112.4 112.5
83.8 82.5 83.3 83.6 84.7 86.2 87.1 89.1 87.3 85.9 84.1 83.6
115.0 113.7 114.3 117.2 119.7 120.7 123.3 125.3 119.1 116.9 115.1 115.4
2007 1 2 3 4
102.8 103.5 104.1 104.5
101.4 102.3 102.3 102.8
103.8 104.2 105.2 105.5
102.7 103.1 103.8 104.1
112.6 112.8 113.4 114.6
112.3 112.5 113.3 114.8
83.4 84.0 85.6 -
112.4 115.4 119.3 -
2004 2005 2006
3.6 2.8 2.2
4.2 3.2 1.5
3.1 2.4 2.7
2.9 2.3 1.8
6.1 2.1 2.3
7.5 2.4 2.6
6.2 -6.7 -1.9
10.2 2.9 5.3
2005 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.6 2.0 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.6
3.2 1.7 2.9 2.7 2.8 3.6
2.0 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.9
2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.8
2.0 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.1 1.7
2.3 1.6 1.6 1.7 0.9 1.6
-6.6 -9.3 -7.4 -8.5 -7.0 -3.1
3.6 2.7 6.3 3.1 5.6 10.2
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.1
2.5 1.6 1.2 1.0 1.8 2.0 1.7 2.7 1.6 0.7 1.0 0.8
2.0 2.3 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.9
1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1
2.1 1.7 1.4 1.5 2.6 3.2 2.8 3.4 3.1 1.9 1.9 2.2
2.3 1.7 1.3 1.3 2.8 3.9 3.4 4.0 3.5 1.9 1.9 2.4
-3.6 -4.9 -4.4 -4.0 0.6 1.3 -0.5 2.4 -1.7 -3.6 -2.6 -1.6
10.2 8.5 5.7 6.1 11.3 9.2 7.8 7.5 0.2 -1.4 -0.3 0.6
2007 1 2 3 4
1.7 2.2 2.2 2.5
0.3 1.2 1.2 1.5
2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9
2.1 2.3 2.4 2.6
1.5 1.7 2.2 2.5
1.4 1.6 2.2 2.6
-0.4 1.9 2.7 -
-2.3 1.5 4.4 -
Y-o-Y change (%)
Source: Korea National Statistical Office
Economic Bulletin
63
12. Employment and earnings See graphs 8-1, 8-2 & 8-3
Economically active persons (thous.) Period
Employed persons (thous.)
Unemployment (%)
All industry earnings (won) (base year=2000) Manufacturing
All industry Manufacturing S.O.C&service 2004 2005 2006
23,417 23,743 23,978
22,557 22,856 23,151
4,290 4,234 4,167
16,427 16,789 17,181
3.7 3.7 3.5
2,372,612 2,524,917 2,666,550
2,279,724 2,458,022 2,594,830
2005 7 8 9 10 11 12
24,072 23,689 23,918 24,056 23,976 23,526
23,184 22,847 23,048 23,186 23,191 22,699
4,233 4,167 4,201 4,241 4,197 4,220
16,931 16,713 16,892 16,966 17,137 17,007
3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.3 3.5
2,496,925 2,461,924 2,759,394 2,413,960 2,282,356 3,349,475
2,450,956 2,404,969 2,655,434 2,370,892 2,097,699 3,504,729
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
23,340 23,365 23,769 24,088 24,267 24,320 24,270 23,972 24,096 24,253 24,225 23,773
22,471 22,412 22,848 23,242 23,484 23,501 23,447 23,164 23,330 23,463 23,458 22,989
4,201 4,184 4,179 4,188 4,170 4,184 4,180 4,114 4.135 4,183 4,137 4,153
16,893 16,763 16,986 17,186 17,293 17,294 17,303 17,099 17,248 17,294 17,467 17,348
3.7 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.3
2,865,004 2,451,498 2,481,580 2,504,830 2,356,038 2,685,520 2,646,200 2,607,031 2,796,266 2,690,402 2,409,143 3,502,448
2,803,400 2,376,782 2,322,720 2,424,268 2,201,426 2,580,407 2,596,198 2,531,654 2,648,830 2,681,556 2,226,062 3,745,800
2007 1 2 3
23,580 23,536 23,960
22,729 22,674 23,121
4,156 4,139 4,119
17,221 17,114 17,371
3.6 3.7 3.5
2,627,540 3,013,449 -
2,425,973 3,056,645 -
Y-o-Y change (%) 2004 2005 2006
2.0 1.4 1.0
1.9 1.3 1.3
2.0 -1.3 -1.6
2.9 2.2 2.3
-
6.5 6.4 5.6
9.9 7.8 5.6
2005 7 8 9 10 11 12
1.9 2.0 1.3 1.5 1.5 0.6
1.9 2.1 1.0 1.2 1.7 0.9
-1.8 -1.4 -2.2 -1.9 -2.5 -1.0
2.6 3.1 2.0 2.4 2.9 2.0
-
5.7 5.1 5.1 6.9 6.5 4.2
6.4 9.6 5.6 10.0 6.7 0.7
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1.2 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1
1.8 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.3
-1.2 -1.7 -2.2 -1.9 -1.9 -1.6 -1.2 -1.3 -1.6 -1.4 -1.4 -1.6
3.0 2.5 2.5 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.0
-
20.3 -7.7 5.5 5.3 7.9 4.1 6.0 5.9 1.3 11.5 5.6 4.6
24.1 -11.8 5.7 4.1 8.1 3.4 5.9 5.3 -0.2 13.1 6.1 6.9
2007 1 2 3
1.0 0.7 0.8
1.1 1.2 1.2
-1.1 -1.1 -1.4
1.9 2.1 2.3
-
-8.3 22.9 -
-13.5 28.6 -
Source: Korea National Statistical Office
64
May 2007
13. Financial indicators See graphs 9-1 & 9-4 (period average) Yields (%)
Stock
Period Call rate (1 day)
CD (91 days)
Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)
Treasury bonds (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
KOSPI (end-period)
2004 1
3.8
4.3
5.7
4.9
5.2
848.50
2
3.8
4.1
5.6
4.8
5.1
883.40
3
3.8
3.9
5.4
4.6
4.9
880.50
4
3.8
3.9
5.3
4.5
4.9
862.80
5
3.8
3.9
5.1
4.4
4.8
803.80
6
3.8
3.9
4.9
4.3
4.6
785.80
7
3.8
3.9
4.8
4.2
4.5
735.30
8
3.6
3.7
4.4
3.8
4.0
803.60
9
3.5
3.5
4.1
3.6
3.8
835.10
10
3.5
3.5
4.0
3.5
3.7
834.80
11
3.3
3.4
3.9
3.4
3.5
878.10
12
3.3
3.4
3.7
3.3
3.4
895.90
2005 1
3.3
3.5
4.1
3.7
3.9
932.70
2
3.3
3.6
4.6
4.2
4.5
1,011.40
3
3.3
3.6
4.5
4.0
4.3
965.70
4
3.3
3.5
4.3
3.9
4.1
911.30
5
3.3
3.5
4.1
3.7
3.9
970.20
6
3.3
3.5
4.2
3.8
4.0
1,008.20
7
3.3
3.5
4.5
4.1
4.4
1,111.30
8
3.3
3.5
4.8
4.3
4.7
1,083.30
9
3.3
3.7
4.9
4.5
4.8
1,221.00
10
3.4
3.9
5.2
4.8
5.1
1,158.10
11
3.5
4.0
5.5
5.1
5.4
1,297.40
12
3.7
4.0
5.5
5.1
5.3
1,379.40
2006 1
3.7
4.2
5.5
5.0
5.3
1,399.80
2
3.9
4.3
5.3
4.9
5.0
1,371.60
3
4.0
4.3
5.3
4.9
5.1
1,359.60
4
4.0
4.3
5.2
5.0
5.2
1,419.70
5
4.0
4.4
5.1
4.8
4.9
1,371.70
6
4.2
4.5
5.2
4.9
5.0
1,295.70
7
4.2
4.6
5.2
4.9
5.0
1,297.80
8
4.4
4.7
5.1
4.8
4.8
1,352.70
9
4.5
4.6
5.0
4.7
4.8
1,371.40
10
4.5
4.6
4.9
4.6
4.7
1,364.60
11
4.5
4.6
5.1
4.7
4.8
1,432.20
12
4.5
4.8
5.2
4.8
4.9
1,434.50
2007 1
4.6
4.9
5.3
5.0
5.0
1,360.20
2
4.6
5.0
5.3
4.9
4.9
1,417.30
3
4.6
4.9
5.2
4.8
4.8
1,452.60
4
4.7
5.0
5.3
4.9
5.0
1,542.24
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
65
14. Monetary indicators See graph 9-5 (period average)
Period
(billion won)
Reserve money
M1
M2
Lf
2004 2005 2006
37,272.4 38,785.2 41,664.0
306,842.5 332,902.1 330,134.1
929,640.6 993,960.1 1,076,682.4
1,260,547.1 1,348,818.8 1,454,858.8
2005 7 8 9 10 11 12
38,103.3 38,630.0 39,864.5 39,732.8 39,461.4 40,319.5
346,659.4 346,984.8 347,135.3 339,969.4 307,025.1 318,419.2
1,004,960.2 1,008,802.0 1,008,223.6 1,008,215.2 1,011,582.7 1,021,591.6
1,361,474.7 1,366,592.7 1,371,084.6 1,374,836.2 1,381,692.7 1,393,063.7
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
41,336.0 41,655.5 40,991.9 41,190.0 40,734.4 40,715.1 41,973.7 40,287.2 41,500.4 43,199.9 41,507.4 44,876.4
327,542.1 326,548.3 325,711.9 324,222.6 323,908.4 326,949.2 330,267.7 325,958.2 327,648.4 333,597.5 337,666.0 351,588.5
1,027,697.4 1,034,711.9 1,042,293.6 1,048,598.6 1,055,855.4 1,072,886.5 1,082,577.5 1,084,752.6 1,098,444.2 1,110,360.9 1,123,714.6 1,138,295.5
1,398,707.3 1,407,971.3 1,413,306.8 1,421,447.5 1,430,748.5 1,445,440.3 1,460,729.4 1,468,210.0 1,479,577.9 1,494,767.6 1,510,883.0 1,526,516.2
2007 1 2 3
47,851.4 49,493.5 48,936.8
353,494.2 350,734.7 309,186.8
1,143,814.9 1,154,108.8 1,162,429.3
1,536,010.8 1,547,248.7 1,558,062.3
Y-o-Y change (%) 2004 2005 2006
4.2 4.1 7.4
8.3 8.5 -0.8
4.6 6.9 8.3
6.1 7.0 7.9
2005 7 8 9 10 11 12
5.6 5.8 6.9 5.2 5.7 7.8
13.3 14.4 12.8 6.7 -1.1 -0.5
7.9 7.7 6.6 6.5 6.6 7.0
7.5 7.6 6.9 6.9 7.2 7.4
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
9.0 5.0 7.8 8.6 7.5 7.6 10.2 4.3 4.1 8.7 5.2 11.3
1.7 -0.8 -2.7 -3.0 -2.3 -3.0 -4.7 -6.1 -5.6 -1.9 10.0 10.4
7.3 7.2 6.6 6.8 7.1 7.7 7.7 7.5 9.0 10.1 11.1 11.4
7.2 7.4 7.0 7.4 76 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.9 8.7 9.4 9.6
2007 1 2 3
15.8 18.8 19.4
7.9 7.4 -5.1
11.3 11.5 11.5
9.8 9.9 10.2
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
66
May 2007
15. Exchange rates See graphs 9-2 & 9-3
/US$
/100
/Euro
Period End-period
Average
End-period
Average
End-period
Average
2004 2005 2006
1,043.8 1,013.0 929.6
1,144.7 1,024.3 955.5
1,012.1 859.9 781.8
1,058.7 930.7 821.5
1,423.0 1,199.3 1,222.2
1,422.9 1,274.0 1,199.3
2005 7 8 9 10 11 12
1028.3 1031.0 1038.0 1042.7 1036.3 1013.0
1,037.4 1,021.2 1,029.3 1,046.3 1,041.4 1,024.2
915.8 925.6 915.9 900.4 865.4 859.9
927.2 921.8 927.1 910.9 880.1 863.9
1,247.2 1,259.2 1,247.4 1,256.7 1,219.3 1,199.3
1,249.5 1,254.5 1,262.1 1,258.0 1,229.0 1,214.0
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
971.0 969.0 975.9 945.7 947.4 960.3 953.1 959.6 945.2 944.2 929.9 929.6
987.0 970.2 975.1 954.4 941.4 955.2 950.2 960.7 953.7 954.2 936.2 925.8
824.9 833.8 831.7 828.3 842.2 834.0 830.2 820.3 802.2 803.5 799.0 781.8
854.3 822.4 831.3 814.8 843.0 833.0 821.4 829.7 814.3 803.2 798.0 790.2
1,173.8 1,147.9 1,187.1 1,184.9 1,208.0 1,215.9 1,216.4 1,232.3 1,200.6 1,200.8 1,223.0 1,222.2
1,194.8 1,159.7 1,172.8 1,169.9 1,201.7 1,208.7 1,206.2 1,230.6 1,214.9 1,202.4 1,205.3 1,222.8
2007 1 2 3 4
940.9 938.3 940.3 929.4
936.4 937.0 943.3 931.5
773.1 793.9 797.0 778.3
778.0 776.8 804.8 783.7
1,220.1 1,241.9 1,253.9 1,266.9
1,217.0 1,225.1 1,249.4 1,257.7
Y-o-Y change (%) 2004 2005 2006
-12.9 -3.0 -8.2
-4.0 -10.5 -6.7
-9.6 -15.0 -9.1
2.8 -12.1 -11.7
-5.3 -15.7 1.9
5.5 -10.5 -5.9
2005 7 8 9 10 11 12
-12.0 -10.6 -9.6 -7.4 -1.1 -3.0
-10.4 -11.9 -10.3 -8.6 -4.6 -2.6
-12.1 -11.7 -11.4 -15.0 -15.0 -15.0
-12.5 -12.2 -11.3 -13.2 -15.5 -14.7
-11.3 -9.4 -11.9 -12.4 -12.3 -15.7
-12.1 -11.2 -9.9 -12.0 -13.2 -13.8
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-5.4 -3.9 -4.7 -5.7 -5.5 -6.3 -7.3 -6.9 -8.9 -9.5 -10.3 -8.2
-4.9 -5.1 -3.2 -5.6 -6.1 -5.5 -8.4 -5.9 -7.4 -8.8 -10.1 -9.6
-16.7 -12.9 -12.7 -12.3 -9.3 -10.1 -9.3 -11.4 -12.4 -10.8 -7.7 -9.1
-15.1 -15.6 -13.2 -13.6 -10.3 -10.4 -11.4 -10.0 -12.2 -11.8 -9.3 -8.5
-12.2 -14.0 -10.3 -8.4 -3.5 -1.8 -2.5 -2.1 -3.8 -4.5 0.3 1.9
-12.4 -13.1 -11.7 -10.6 -5.5 -1.7 -3.5 -1.9 -3.7 -4.4 -1.9 0.7
2007 1 2 3 4
-3.1 -3.2 -3.7 -1.7
-5.1 -3.4 -3.3 -2.4
-6.3 -4.8 -4.2 -6.0
-8.9 -5.5 -3.2 -3.8
3.9 8.2 5.6 6.9
1.9 5.6 6.5 7.5
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
67
Editor-in-Chief Kang, Ho-In (MOFE) Editorial Board Song, Kyung-Jin (MOFE) Kim, Dong-Yule (KDI) Shim, Jae-Hak (KDI) Coordinators Baek, Yoon-Jin (MOFE) Kang, Ji-Eun (KDI) Assistant Editors Huh, Bo-Young (MOFE) Kim, Jin-Mi (KDI) Baek, So-Myung (KDI)
Useful Internet Websites Economy-related Websites Recommended
Ministry of Finance and Economy http://english.mofe.go.kr Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy http://english.mocie.go.kr Ministry of Planning and Budget http://www.mpb.go.kr/english.html Financial Supervisory Commission/Financial Supervisory Service http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng Fair Trade Commission http://www.ftc.go.kr/eng Ministry of Labor http://english.molab.go.kr Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr Korea National Statistical Office http://www.nso.go.kr/eng/index.html