Vol. 30 | No. 8
Republic of Korea
Economic Bulletin The Green Book : Current Economic Trends 3
Overview 1. Global economy
4
2. Private consumption
8
3. Facility investment
12
4. Construction investment
14
5. Exports and imports
16
6. Mining and manufacturing production
18
7. Service sector activity
20
8. Employment
22
9. Financial markets
24
9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4
Stock market Exchange rate Bond market Money supply & money market
10. Balance of payments
28
11. Prices and international commodity prices
30
11.1 Prices 11.2 International oil and commodity prices 12. Real estate market
34
12.1 Housing market 12.2 Land market 13. Composite indexes of business cycle indicators
Policy Issues
38
40
National spatial strategy for balanced development
Economic News Briefing
44
Statistical Appendices
49
The Green Book Current Economic Trends
Overview Despite continuing export gains, the Korean economy has seen domestic demand deteriorating and inflationary pressures mounting in the wake of high oil prices that have sent ripples across a broad spectrum of economic sectors. In June, in the midst of lackluster domestic demand, mining and manufacturing production slackened owing to export disruptions from truck drivers’ strikes. It grew 6.7 percent in June, paling in comparison with the last month’s 8.6 percent growth. June consumer goods sales posted a year-on-year decrease of 1.0 percent, snapping its winning streak which has been maintained since July 2006. On a month-on-month basis, they dropped 4.3 percent, dwarfing last month’s 0.7 percent loss. Facility investment (estimated) in June rebounded 4.4 percent, as increased investments in machinery such as electrical/electronic equipment and telecommunications devices blunted investment shortfalls in transportation equipment. The total number of workers hired rose a mere 147,000 year-on-year in June, signifying a further deterioration in the Korean job market. In June, the leading composite index fell for the seventh consecutive month on a year-on-year basis, while the cyclical indicator went down for the fifth straight month. In the manufacturing sector, inventories have continued to swell for five consecutive months, moving into the phase of an economic slowdown. July exports surged 37.1 percent year-on-year, as brisk exports to emerging markets and resource-rich nations offset sluggish exports to advanced nations. In June, the current account swung to a surplus for the first time in 7 months, as goods trade surpluses, boosted by the adjustment for the time difference between customs clearance and the hand-over of exported ships, compensated for service account deficits. Consumer prices in July jumped 5.9 percent year-on-year, and 0.7 percent month-on-month due to the hikes in oil and raw material prices. To sum up, the domestic economy has continued on a downward trajectory, dragged down by weak consumption and investor sentiment and cost-pushing inflationary pressures triggered by soaring oil prices have continued to build up throughout the Korean economy. Against this backdrop, priority should be placed on stabilizing the lives of the ordinary people and continuous efforts should be made to create jobs and boost growth potential.
Economic Bulletin
3
1. Global economy Downside risks to the global economy have expanded due to high oil prices, the US economic slowdown triggered by its floundering housing sector, and growing concerns over a recurrence of the credit crisis. On top of that, global inflationary pressures have been piling up as prices of raw materials such as oil and grains continue to soar. However, record high oil prices have declined since mid July due to rising prospects for decreased oil demand in the wake of the global economic slowdown and the flight of financial investments.
US
The U.S. economic growth of 1.9 percent (preliminary) in the second quarter of 2008 fell short of market expectations, expanding uncertainties in the credit market. However, propped up by tax rebates, consumption gained 1.5 percent, up from the previous quarter’s 0.9 percent increase. In addition, the weak dollar helped exports climb 9.2 percent, up from the preceding month’s 5.1 percent. The housing market has still remained in doldrums due to the continued devaluation of home prices. However, the sales of new homes and investments in the construction of residences started to decline at a slower pace than before. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index (y-o-y, %) -10.7 (Jan, 2008)
-12.7 (Feb)
-14.3 (Mar)
-15.2 (Apr)
-15.8 (May)
Despite the federal bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the US financial market slipped into negative territory amid worries over the credit crunch and financial uncertainties. The U.S. Dow Jones Indexes (monthly average) 12,193.9 (Mar 2008)
12,656.6 (Apr)
12,812.5 (May)
12,056.7 (Jun)
11,322.4 (Jul)
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the federal funds rate unchanged at 2.0 percent on August 5, as concerns over the economic slowdown outweighed those over inflationary pressures fueled by high oil prices. (Percentage change from previous period) 2007
2006
2008
Annual
Annual
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Apr
May
Jun
Real GDP1
2.8
2.0
4.8
-0.2
0.9
1.9
-
-
-
- Personal consumption expenditure
3.0
2.8
2.0
1.0
0.9
1.5
-
-
-
- Corporate fixed investment
7.5
4.9
8.7
3.4
2.4
2.3
-
-
-
- Construction investment for housing
-7.1
-17.9
-20.6
-27.0
-25.1
-15.6
-
-
-
Industrial production
2.2
1.7
3.6
0.3
0.5
-3.1
-0.7
-0.2
0.5
Retail sales
5.8
4.0
0.5
1.0
0.2
0.9
0.2
0.8
0.1
New non-farm payroll employment (q-o-q, thousand)
2,099
1,096
212
241
-247
-201
-67
-47
-51
New home sales
-18.1
-26.2
-14.3
-10.9
-13.8
-4.6
5.7
-1.7
-0.6
3.2
2.9
2.4
4.0
4.1
4.4
3.9
4.2
5.0
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) 1. Annualized rate (%)
4
August 2008
1-1
US GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate) Source: US Department of Commerce
1-2
US non-farm payroll employment (m-o-m change) Source: US Department of Labor
1-3
US federal funds rate and consumer prices Source: US Federal Reserve Board & Department of Labor
Economic Bulletin
5
China
The Chinese economy has grown at a slightly slower pace due to a leveling-off in export growth, while inflation has moderated for two months in a row. The 10.1 percent economic growth in the second quarter of 2008 was below market expectations, raising both worries over an economic slowdown and the possibility of easing its tight monetary policy. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
2007
2008
Annual
Annual
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Apr
May
Jun
Real GDP
10.7
11.4
11.5
11.2
10.6
10.1
-
-
-
Fixed asset investment (accumulated)
24.5
25.8
26.4
25.8
25.9
27.1
25.7
25.6
26.8
Retail sales
13.7
16.8
16.8
19.0
20.6
22.2
22.0
21.6
23.0
Industrial production
16.6
18.5
18.1
17.5
16.4
15.9
15.7
16.0
16.0
Exports
27.2
25.7
26.2
25.7
21.4
22.4
21.8
28.1
17.6
Consumer prices
1.5
4.8
6.1
6.6
8.0
7.8
8.5
7.7
7.1
Japan
The Japanese economy saw its export gains contract in June for the first time since November 2003. Moreover, production in the mining and manufacturing sector declined and consumer prices climbed, putting the brakes on economic recovery. (Percentage change from previous period) 2006
2007
2008
Annual
Annual
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Apr
May
Jun
Real GDP
2.5
1.6
0.2
0.7
1.0
-
-
-
-
Industrial and mining production
4.5
2.8
1.7
0.9
-0.6
-0.7
-0.2
2.8
-0.2
Retail sales (y-o-y, %)
0.1
-0.1
-0.5
0.8
1.8
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.3
Exports (y-o-y, %)
14.6
11.5
10.7
10.0
6.0
1.8
3.9
3.7
-1.7
Core consumer prices (y-o-y, %)
0.3
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.9
1.4
0.8
1.3
2.0
Eurozone
Amid sluggish export growth, the eurozone has seen its industrial output fall, while inflation hit a record high of 4.1 percent in July, the highest since April 1992. (Percentage change from previous period) 2006
2007
2008
Annual
Annual
Q3
Q4
Q1
Apr
May
Real GDP
2.8
2.6
0.7
0.4
0.7
-
-
Industrial production
4.0
3.5
1.4
0.1
0.7
1.0
-1.9
-
Retail sales
1.6
1.0
0.5
-0.9
0.2
-0.6
1.2
-3.1
Exports (y-o-y, %)
11.6
8.3
10.0
4.6
5.4
15.9
4.1
-
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %)
2.2
2.1
1.9
2.9
3.4
3.3
3.7
4.0(4.1)1
1. July inflation
6
August 2008
Jun
1-4
China’s GDP and fixed asset investment Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
1-5
Japan’s GDP growth Source: Cabinet Office & Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan
1-6
Eurozone GDP growth and industrial production Source: Eurostat
Economic Bulletin
7
2. Private consumption Private consumption (preliminary GDP) in the second quarter of 2008 gained a mere 2.4 percent year-on-year and fell 0.1 percent compared to the preceding quarter, the first loss in 4 years since the second quarter of 2004. Private consumption (y-o-y, %) 4.1 (Q1 2007)
4.4 (Q2)
4.8 (Q3)
(SA*, q-o-q, %): 1.6 (Q1 2007)
4.6 (Q4)
0.9 (Q2)
3.4 (Q1 2008)
1.3 (Q3)
2.4 (Q2)
0.8 (Q4)
0.4 (Q1 2008)
-0.1 (Q2)
* SA: seasonally adjusted
June consumer goods sales contracted 1.0 percent year-on-year, the first decline since July 2006, and they dropped 4.3 percent month-on-month after losing 0.7 percent in the previous month. As sluggish sales of cars and cyclical semi-durable goods such as apparel have continued, those of non-durable goods including vehicle fuels have followed suit. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
2007
2008
Annual
Annual
Q3
Q4
Consumer goods sales
4.1
5.3
7.1
4.5
3.5
3.9
2.5
5.4
3.0
-1.0
(Seasonally adjusted)2
-
-
1.8
0.3
-0.6
2.0
-1.1
-0.4
-0.7
-4.3
11.2
11.0
10.1
6.9
9.6
8.2
7.6
15.1
7.7
0.3
6.9
6.8
4.1
3.9
5.1
9.5
7.1
19.4
7.4
-5.1
3.0
2.9
3.2
2.9
3.5
5.4
-1.6
-1.2
-2.7
-0.7
1.7
3.7
7.1
4.0
0.8
1.5
1.6
3.8
3.0
-1.8
- Durable goods3 路Automobiles - Semi-durable goods - Non-durable goods5
4
Jun
Q1
Q2
1
Apr
May1
Jun1
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period 3. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 4. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 5. Non-durable good: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobaccos, etc.
While sales at department stores went up from a month earlier, those at large discounters slowed and those at specialized retailers turned negative. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
- Department stores - Large discounters - Specialized retailers
2
2007
Annual
Annual
Q3
Q4
2008 (Percentage (Percentage change change from from same same period period in in previous previous year) year) 1 Jun Q1 Q2 Apr May1 Jun1
3.3
0.7
3.2
2.8
2.4
4.3
3.7
1.6
4.2
5.7
8.1
8.7
12.2
4.4
10.4
7.3
3.2
2.4
4.3
2.6
2.3
5.6
7.0
4.4
3.4
1.6
0.1
4.9
1.2
-5.9
1. Preliminary 2. Specialized retailers are defined as stores carrying a few (1 to 3) specialized items.
8
August 2008
2-1
Private consumption Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
2-2
Consumer goods sales Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
2-3
Consumer goods sales by type Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
9
Given preliminary consumption indices as well as further deterioration in consumer sentiment and in the job market, consumer goods sales in July are likely to continue its downward trajectory. Sales growth at department stores has slowed and high oil prices slashed the sales of gasoline. However, domestic demand for Korean automobiles and sales at discounters rebounded along with increasing domestic credit card spending. Overall, July consumer goods sales are likely to outdo June’s performance. Value of credit card use (y-o-y, %) 17.2 (Feb 2008)
25.5 (Mar)
19.4 (Apr)
20.0 (May)
18.8 (Jun)
22.9 (Jul)
Department store sales (y-o-y, %) 5.5 (Feb)
6.7 (Mar)
6.5 (Apr)
11.3 (May)
11.2 (Jun)
5.0 (Jul)
4.9 (May)
-1.9 (Jun)
2.4 (Jul)
Discount store sales (y-o-y, %) -1.5 (Feb)
2.8 (Mar)
0.1 (Apr)
Domestic sales of Korea automobiles (y-o-y, %) 2.9 (Feb)
5.9 (Mar)
11.4 (Apr)
3.3 (May)
-7.5 (Jun)
5.1 (Jul)
6.5 (Apr)
0.0 (May)
-4.6 (Jun)
-7.3 (Jul)
Sales of gasoline 0.7 (Feb)
-0.6 (Mar)
Source: Ministry of Knowledge and Economy The Credit Finance Association Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association Ministry of Strategy and Finance (for July data)
Soaring oil prices have been on the decline since mid July, but it will take some time before consumer prices stabilize and consumer confidence bounces back. Dubai oil price ($/B, quarter) 97.7 (Mar 2008)
106.8 (Apr)
120.0 (May)
136.2 (Jun)
140.7 (Jul 4)
123.3 (Jul)
CPI (y-o-y, %) 3.6 (Feb 2008)
3.9 (Mar)
4.1 (Apr)
4.9 (May)
5.5 (Jun)
5.9 (Jul)
Source: Korea National Statistical Office
GNI (y-o-y, %) 5.2 (Q3 2007)
2.6 (Q4)
1.3 (Q1 2008)
1.12 (Q2)
5.7 (Q4)
5.8 (Q1 2008)
4.8 (Q2)
GDP (y-o-y, %) 5.1 (Q3 2007)
Employment growth (y-o-y, %) 20.9 (Q1 2008)
17.3 (Q2), 19.1 (Apr)
18.1 (May)
14.7 (Jun)
Consumer Sentiment Index 105.9 (Jan 2008)
103.1 (Feb)
99.7 (Mar)
2. GDI growth in the second quarter of 2008
10
August 2008
100.4 (Apr)
92.2 (May)
86.8 (Jun)
2-4
Department store and discount store sales (current value) Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy (monthly retail sales)
2-5
Domestic automobile sales Source: Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association (monthly automobile industry trend)
2-6
Consumer expectations index and present situation index Source: Korea National Statistical Office (monthly consumer survey index)
Economic Bulletin
11
3. Facility investment Facility investment in the second quarter of 2008 (preliminary GDP) remained lackluster, gaining 0.8 percent year-on-year and 1.0 percent compared to the first quarter of 2008. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
20081
20071
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
7.8
7.6
10.9
11.0
2.3
6.5
1.4
0.8
-
-
4.5
1.6
-1.8
2.1
-0.4
1.0
- Machinery
8.2
7.6
13.5
9.5
1.0
7.0
-0.9
-
- Transportation equipment
6.0
7.7
0.3
18.9
8.9
4.0
12.3
-
Facility investment
2
(Seasonally adjusted)3
1. Preliminary
2. National accounts
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
3. Percentage change from previous period
The facility investment (estimated) in June returned to an upward path, as increased investments (up 7.3%) in machinery such as electric and electronic equipment and telecommunications devices offset decreased investments (down 13.5 %) in transportation equipment. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
2007
Annual Annual Facility investment (estimated)
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jun
Q1
Q2
Apr
May1
Jun1
8.9
8.6
12.8
11.9
0.7
9.2
11.3
-0.9
0.1
-1.9
-2.1
4.4
- Domestic machinery shipments
10.8
2.9
5.9
2.4
-1.7
4.8
3.9
1.3
1.2
4.6
-0.2
-0.8
Domestic machinery orders
16.2
21.1
18.9
7.1
19.1
39.3
3.3
25.2
8.5
17.9
3.0
5.4
- Public
0.3
-11.2
13.9
--47.7
-26.9
12.9
-71.1
8.8
83.4
1.3
-1.5
228.1
- Private
18.0
24.2
19.1
11.6
24.0
43.4
15.2
25.9
5.6
18.5
3.1
-3.5
1. Preliminary
Leading indicators such as machinery orders, machinery imports, and the BSI (Business Survey Index) indicate that facility investment (estimated) in July would not improve to a significant degree. Domestic machinery orders in June jumped in the public sector, but turned negative in the private sector. Machinery imports (%) 12.2 (Jan 2008)
11.3 (Feb)
12.0 (Mar)
12.3 (Apr)
5.7 (May)
6.4 (Jun)
The Bank of Korea’s BSI projections for facility investments in the manufacturing sector fell 2 points from the previous month.
2008
Business survey indexes (base=100) Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Manufacturing facility investment result
101
100
100
100
98
Manufacturing facility investment prospect
101
101
103
103
100
Source: The Bank of Korea
12
August 2008
Aug
98
3-1
Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
3-2
Machinery orders and estimated facility investment (3-month average) Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
3-3
Machinery imports Source: Korea International Trade Association (KITA)
Economic Bulletin
13
4. Construction investment Construction investment (preliminary GDP) in the second quarter of 2008 shrank 0.8 percent year-on-year and 0.6 percent compared to the first quarter of 2008. (Percentage change from same period in previous year, %) 2006
20071
Annual
Annual
-0.1
1.2
-
-
- Building construction
-0.7
1.8
- Civil engineering works
0.7
0.3
Construction investment
2
(Seasonally adjusted)3
Q1
20081
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
3.7
1.6
-0.1
0.4
-1.1
-0.8
-0.3
-1.2
0.2
1.2
-1.4
-0.6
2.0
1.2
1.8
2.2
-0.3
7.2
2.1
-2.9
-1.8
-2.5
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts 3. Percentage change from previous period
In June, construction completed (current value) slowed its growth momentum in both the private and public sectors, on the heels of increased rainfalls and strikes by construction workers. (Percentage change from same period in previous year, %) 2006
2007
Annual Annual Construction completed
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jun
Q1
Q2
Apr
May1
Jun1
2.6
6.6
7.9
6.0
4.4
8.0
4.9
5.8
6.1
4.3
7.7
6.1
- Public
0.6
8.4
21.1
12.2
3.0
2.8
11.9
6.9
3.3
2.4
5.0
2.6
- Private
4.0
4.5
3.1
2.3
3.6
8.4
1.2
2.9
4.2
2.5
6.1
4.1
2
1. Preliminary 2. Industrial activity
In the face of the housing downturn and waning investor confidence, construction investment is unlikely to snap its downward trend in the months to come. Business survey index for construction (base=100) 75.0 (Feb 2008)
58.2 (Mar)
51.4 (Apr)
49.3 (May)
51.7 (Jun)
Source: The Construction and Economy Research Institute of Korea
Construction orders (current value), one component of the leading composite index, were dragged down by the housing slump in the private sector and the high base effect stemming from the same period in the previous year. (Percentage change from same period in previous year, %) 2006
2007
Annual Annual Construction orders
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jun
Q1
Q2
Apr
May1
Jun1
9.0
19.3
26.3
26.3
-5.6
29.5
28.8
-3.9
-6.1
-2.5
18.8
-23.4
- Public
-6.3
34.2
49.3
21.2
7.3
47.2
6.6
20.0
18.6
-4.1
52.6
9.7
- Private
12.8
13.1
21.8
17.0
-12.9
28.6
19.4
-15.0
-5.9
0.2
18.2
-22.7
1. Preliminary 2. Current value
14
2008
Q1
August 2008
2
4-1
Construction investment Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
4-2
Construction completed and housing construction Source: Korea National Statistical Office (construction completed) Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (housing construction)
4-3
Leading indicators of construction investment Source: Korea National Statistical Office (construction orders) Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (building construction permit area)
Economic Bulletin
15
5. Exports and Imports Exports in July totaled US$41.41 billion, up 37.1 percent from a year earlier. According to the estimates by the Ministry of Knowledge and Economy, exports of petroleum goods (up 154.5%), vessels (up 179.0%), auto parts (up 37.5%), and steel (up 74.1%) have been buoyant, while those of semi conductors (down 5.9%), cars (down 6.4%), and computers (down 20.1%) have went south. By regional category, exports to ASEAN nations (up 68.3%), the Middle East (up 51.9%), China (up 26.6%), and Central and South America (up 37.5%) have boomed, but those to the EU and the U.S. decreased 6.5 percent respectively. (US$ billion) 2007 May
2008
Jun
Jul
Jan-Jul
May
Jun
Jul
Jan-Jul
Exports
31.04
32.00
30.21
207.90
39.37
37.32
41.41
255.35
(y-o-y, %)
(11.1)
(14.5)
17.2
(14.4)
(26.9)
(16.6)
37.1
(22.8)
Average daily exports
1.32
1.42
1.31
1.30
1.75
1.70
1.66
1.60
Imports
29.86
28.51
29.22
199.45
38.49
37.76
43.04
263.14
(14.1)
(28.9)
(32.4)
(47.3)
(31.9)
1.71
1.72
1.72
1.65
0.88
-0.43
-1.62
-7.8
(y-o-y, %)
(13.9)
(9.5)
(14.4)
Average daily imports
1.27
1.27
1.27
Trade balance
1.18
3.49
0.98
1.25 8.45
July imports soared 47.3 percent year-on-year to post US$43.04 billion. The run-up in imports overshadowed export gains and was mainly led by raw materials (up 55.3%) such as crude oil (up 81.3%), petroleum goods (up 141.1%), and gas (up 111.2%). Raw materials (%) 35.4 (Mar 2008)
39.8 (Apr)
40.0 (May)
45.1 (Jun)
55.3 (Jul 1~20)
13.3 (May)
14.0 (Jun)
13.5 (Jul 1~20)
13.9 (May)
19.0 (Jun)
16.5 (Jul 1~20)
Capital goods (%) 12.0 (Mar 2008)
14.5 (Apr)
Consumer goods (%) 20.5 (Mar 2008)
22.8 (Apr)
In July, Korea’ trade balance swung to a deficit of US$1.62 billion as the surge in imports of raw materials eclipsed record export growth. Dubai crude oil prices (US$/bbl) 64.7 (May 2007)
65.9 (Jun)
69.7 (Jul), 119.5 (Apr 2008)
127.9 (Jun)
131.3 (Jul)
August exports are projected to continue on a steep upward path, boosted by the weak won and growing exports to China, Central and South America, and the Middle East. Imports growth would level off if the decline in oil prices which started in mid July, continues throughout August.
16
August 2008
5-1
Exports (customs clearance basis) Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-2
Imports (customs clearance basis) Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-3
Trade balance Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
Economic Bulletin
17
6. Mining and manufacturing production Production in mining and manufacturing in June slowed due to sluggish domestic demand and export disruptions from truck drivers’ strikes. By business category, production of semiconductors/parts (up 25.0%), audiovisual telecommunications equipment (up 13.8%), and automobiles (up 5.0) has contributed to output growth. Contribution to on-year output growth (%p) Semiconductors and parts (4.02), audio-visual telecommunications (0.76), and automobiles (0.56)
However, on a month-on-month basis, semiconductors, parts, and audio-visual telecommunications devices such as mobile phones showed sluggish growth. June shipments have moderated, posting a 4.5 percent gain, down from a 6.2 percent rise in the previous month, while inventories swelled 15.9 percent in June, up from 13.1 percent increment a month earlier. Semiconductors and parts contributed 11.8 percentage points and cars 0.62 percentage points to June inventory growth of 15.9 percent. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007
Production (q-o-q, m-o-m)
Mining and manufacturing activity2
2008
Annual
Q2
Jun
Q1
Q2
1
Apr
May1
Jun1
-
3.0
0.7
2.1
1.4
1.0
-0.6
0.2
(y-o-y)
6.8
6.2
6.6
10.6
8.6
10.7
8.6
6.7
(days operated reflected)
7.0
6.0
8.0
10.2
9.5
9.6
11.9
7.1
- Manufacturing
7.0
6.3
6.7
10.7
9.0
11.1
8.9
7.0
·Heavy chemical industry
8.2
7.0
7.9
12.9
11.1
13.4
11.4
8.7
·Light industry
1.7
3.0
1.6
1.5
-0.7
1.0
-2.0
-1.0
Shipment
7.1
6.9
6.8
8.9
6.4
8.5
6.2
4.5
- Domestic demand
4.9
5.7
4.9
5.3
1.8
4.9
0.3
0.4
- Exports
10.2
8.7
9.7
14.3
13.6
14.1
15.9
10.9
Inventory3
5.7
3.9
3.9
9.0
15.9
12.0
13.1
15.9
Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) activity Production capacity
80.3
80.7
80.9
81.1
80.9
82.2
80.2
80.3
5.2
4.4
4.7
5.9
6.2
6.1
6.4
6.1
1. Preliminary
2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry
3. End-period (month, quarter and year)
July’s production in the mining and manufacturing sector is forecast to remain on its upward trajectory, propped up by strong exports, but its growth is likely to be stunted by slackening domestic demand. Export growth on a custom clearance basis (y-o-y, %) 18.4 (Mar 2008)
18
August 2008
26.4 (Apr)
26.9 (May)
16.6 (Jun)
37.1 (Jul)
6-1
Industrial production Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
6-2
Average manufacturing operation ratio Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
6-3
Inventory Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
19
7. Service sector activity Service activity in June recorded a year-on-year growth of 2.8 percent, decelerating from the previous month’s 4.9 percent growth. By business category, transportation services (up 6.4%), healthcare & social welfare services (up 5.9%), financial & insurance services (up 5.4%) have contributed to the output growth in the service sector. Meanwhile, wholesales and retail (up 1.0%) and real estate & renting (down 3.6%) have shown sluggish performance, reflecting the continued contraction in consumer spending and in the real estate market. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) Weight
2007
2006 Annual Annual
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jun
Q1
Q21
Apr
May1
Jun1
Service activity index
100
5.5
6.4
5.4
6.1
7.2
6.8
7.7
6.4
4.6
6.0
4.9
2.8
- Wholesale & retail
22.0
3.8
4.3
4.3
3.7
4.2
5.2
3.8
3.9
2.5
4.5
2.0
1.0
- Hotels & restaurants
7.8
2.2
2.4
2.0
2.6
2.2
2.9
2.9
3.1
1.8
1.3
1.6
2.7
- Transportation services
9.0
6.9
7.1
6.6
5.5
8.4
8.1
6.6
7.7
8.0
10.4
6.7
6.4
- Communication services
5.0
3.6
3.7
3.1
2.9
2.3
6.3
1.4
4.8
4.2
6.8
2.5
3.5
- Financial & insurance services
15.4
9.0
16.0
9.5
16.3
18.3
19.5
21.1
15.3
9.9
12.7
12.2
5.4
- Real estate & renting
6.3
9.8
2.7
6.9
2.0
6.6
-3.5
6.1
5.8
2.8
7.2
5.8
-3.6
- Business services
10.0
5.7
6.6
5.3
6.7
7.0
7.4
6.9
5.0
3.5
4.6
3.8
2.4
- Educational services
10.6
2.6
2.3
3.0
2.5
2.5
1.4
4.4
3.3
2.2
1.1
2.3
3.0
- Healthcare & social welfare services
6.0
11.0
8.5
8.3
9.0
9.2
7.4
11.8
6.2
6.9
6.8
7.6
5.9
- Entertainment, cultural & sports services
3.8
1.8
6.4
5.5
6.4
7.5
5.7
8.0
4.1
1.6
0.5
2.3
1.8
- Other public & personal services
4.2
3.8
0.7
1.0
0.1
0.7
1.0
0.4
2.0
1.1
2.4
0.9
-0.3
1. Preliminary
Service activity in July is expected to maintain its downward trajectory amid weak domestic consumption and growing inflationary pressures fueled by high oil prices. Dubai crude oil prices (US$/barrel, monthly average) 96.9 (Mar 2008)
103.6 (Apr)
119.5 (May)
127.9 (Jun)
Private consumption (q-o-q, %) 4.8 (Q3 2007)
20
August 2008
4.6 (Q4)
3.4 (Q1 2008)
2.4 (Q2)
131.3 (Jul)
7-1
Service industry Source: Korea National Statistical Office (service industry activity trend)
80.0 70.0
7-2
Wholesale and retail sales Source: Korea National Statistical Office (service industry activity trend)
Jun 2008 service industry by business
serv ices Hea l t h serv care ices & s ocia l we lfar e Ente spo rtainm rts s en ervi t, cu ces ltura l& Oth & p er pub erso lic, nal repa serv ir ices
Edu cati ona l
Bus ines s se rvic es
rent ing Rea l es tate &
Com mun icat ion serv ices Fina serv ncial & ices insu ranc e
Tran spo rtat ion
rest aura nts Hot els &
Wh oles ale &
reta il
Source: Korea National Statistical Office (service industry activity trend)
Tota l ind ex
7-3
Economic Bulletin
21
8. Employment The number of Korean workers on payroll in June stood at 23.96 million with a year-on-year increase of 147,000. The pace of growth, however, slowed down considerably month-onmonth due to worsening economic conditions, truck drivers’ strikes, and the high comparison base set in June 2007 when job growth hit a yearly high of 315,000 compared to the year’s monthly average of 282,000. The overall pace of job growth has decelerated in the service sector. However, a whopping 292,000 jobs were created in June, led by educational services, healthcare & social welfare services, and business services. The manufacturing sector recorded fewer job losses totaling 33,000, as the recent robust exports blunted structural factors such as informatization which put brakes on job creation. Employment in the construction sector has been falling since the third quarter of 2007 due to a recent slump in the housing business and weak investment in construction. It dropped 61,000 jobs in June, a faster pace of decline compared with the previous month. Employment in agriculture, forestry and fisheries lost 54,000 jobs, continuing its downward trend as its share in the national economy has contracted. By status of workers, growth in the number of wage workers has decelerated to 261,000, as companies held back from hiring new employees due to worsening external conditions. The number of regular workers, in particular, rose by 423,000, while the number of temporary or daily workers shrank significantly by 161,000 year-on-year. During the period from June 15 to 21 when the June employment survey was conducted, the number of daily workers engaged in transportation and stevedoring fell temporarily due to strikes by the truck drivers’ union from June 13 to 19. The employment rate posted 60.5 percent, down 0.3 percentage points compared to the same month of the previous year. The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 3.1 percent year-on-year, settling in the downward tendency. Also, the youth unemployment rate rose 0.6 percentage points to 7.8 percent. (Change from same period in previous year, thousand) 2007
2008
Jun
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Mar
Jun
31.5
282
26.4
289
296
278
210
173
181
147
- Agriculture, forestry and fishery
-6.3
-58
-4.2
-52
-72
-67
-62
-52
-58
-54
- Manufacturing
-4.4
-48
-5.1
-55
-50
-37
-24
-25
-17
-33
Employment growth
- Construction
1.8
15
4.6
30
-6
-9
-17
-38
-32
-61
- Services
40.2
373
30.9
367
424
392
312
285
286
292
Unemployment rate (%)
3.2
3.2
3.6
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.4
3.1
3.0
3.1
Employment rate (%)
60.8
59.8
58.6
60.6
60.2
60.0
58.5
60.4
60.5
60.5
22
August 2008
8-1
Number of employed and employment growth Source: Korea National Statistical Office (employment trend)
8-2
Share of employed by industry Source: Korea National Statistical Office (employment trend)
8-3
Unemployment rate and number of unemployed Source: Korea National Statistical Office (employment trend)
Economic Bulletin
23
9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market KOSPI has been on a downward trend until mid July due to worries over high oil prices and the possibility that the global credit crunch may occur again. Against this backdrop, Korea’s main bourse plunged to a yearly low of 1,507.4 points on July 16. Since then, the benchmark rebounded slightly due to drops in international oil prices and the emergency fund inflow by the Fed, which in turn mitigated the risk of a credit crunch. Out of concern over a global credit crunch, foreign investors have continued massive net selling of shares in emerging markets including Korea to secure liquidity. The net amount of securities sold by foreign investors was slightly reduced to 5.1 trillion won in July from 5.2 trillion won in June. Meanwhile, the net amount of portfolio sold by foreign investors from January to May 2008 was 13.5 trillion won. (End-period, point, trillion won) KOSPI
Stock price index Market capitalization
KOSDAQ
2007
Jun 2008
Change1
2007
Jul 2008
Change1
1,897.1
1,594.7
-302.4 (-18.90%)
704.2
539.4
-164.8 (-30.55%)
951.9
809.8
-142.1 (-17.6%)
99.9
79.6
-20.3 (-25.5%)
5.5
4.1
-1.4 (-34.1%)
2.0
1.2
-0.8 (-66.7%)
Average daily trade value 1. Change from the end of previous year
9.2 Exchange rate The won/dollar exchange rate dropped significantly to 1,012.2 won at the end of July, compared with 1,046.0 at the end of the previous month. Net selling by foreign investors pushed the won/dollar exchange rate up to 1,050.4 won on July 4. The exchange rate, thereafter, stabilized affected by the Korean government’s foreign exchange market intervention and falls in international oil prices. The won/yen exchange rate closed the month at the 930 won range as the yen depreciated. (End-period) 2005
2006
2007
2008
Dec
Dec
Dec
Jun
Jul
Change1
Won/Dollar
1,011.6
929.8
936.1
1,046.0
1,012.1
-7.5
Won/100Yen
858.5
783.4
828.6
987.7
937.4
-11.6
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.
24
August 2008
9-1
Stock prices
9-2
Foreign exchange rate (month-end)
9-3
Recent foreign exchange rate
Economic Bulletin
25
9.3 Bond market Short-term bond yields kept their upward momentum fueled by expectations over a benchmark interest rate raise by the Bank of Korea, while long-tem bond yields have kept falling after the 3-year Treasury bond yields were recorded at 6.17 percent on July 14 due to prospects for an economic slowdown and lessened inflationary pressures. (End-period) 2004
2005
2006
2007
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Change1
3.29
3.76
4.60
5.02
4.98
5.04
5.01
4.98
-4
Call rate (1 day)
2008
CD (91 days)
3.43
4.09
4.86
5.82
5.38
5.36
5.37
5.68
-14
Treasury bonds (3 yrs)
3.28
5.08
4.92
5.74
5.10
5.46
5.90
5.80
6
Corporate bonds (3 yrs)
3.72
5.52
5.29
6.77
6.01
6.41
6.88
6.91
14
Treasury bonds (5 yrs)
3.39
5.36
5.00
5.78
5.13
5.54
5.98
5.86
8
Basis point changes in July 2008 from end December 2007
9.4 Money supply & money market The M2 growth in June is estimated to have slowed down to 15.1 percent year-on-year, a slowdown from 15.8 percent of the previous month. This was mainly due to moderated growth in credits to households and businesses in June. (Percentage change from same period in previous year, average) 2006
2007
Annual
Annual
Q1
2008
Q2
Q3
Q4
Apr
May
Jun
Jun1
M12
9.1
8.1
9.4
9.8
8.3
4.8
2.2
5.4
4.8
340.4
M2
8.3
11.2
11.5
11.0
11.1
11.2
14.9
15.8
15.1
1,369.7
Lf 3
7.9
10.2
10.0
10.2
10.2
10.5
11.6
12.7
12.7
1,798.44
1. Balance, trillion won 2. Excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3) 4. Preliminary
In June, bank deposit growth decelerated significantly as the amount of funds in time deposits plunged by 3.7 trillion won after seeing a net inflow of 2.9 trillion won a month earlier. Some matured funds in time deposits headed to CDs (certificate of deposits) issued with bankbooks for customers rather than certificates, which mainly contributed to a sharp decline in funds in time deposits. Meanwhile, instant access accounts attracted more funds as their deposits grew by 5.2 trillion won. Asset management company (AMC) deposits decreased considerably amid weak money inflows into equity funds since May. (Monthly change, end-period, trillion won) 2007
2008
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Bank deposits
-8.3
4.3
6.5
7.6
11.3
-4.3
12.2
8.9
-6.0
22.8
9.3
5.3
AMC deposits
3.9
4.0
3.3
13.0
14.3
-0.4
23.5
13.9
0.4
10.2
14.7
-1.0
26
August 2008
9-4
Interest rates Source: The Bank of Korea
9-5
Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea
9-6
Share of deposits by financial sector (M3 as of year-end) Source: The Bank of Korea * Retail finance: Mutual savings banks & National Credit Union Federation of Korea, Others: Investment banks, post office savings, etc.
Economic Bulletin
27
10. Balance of payments Korea’s current account in June posted US$1.82 billion in surplus, a turnaround from deficit for the first time in 7 months since December 2007. The goods account expanded its surplus to US$3.48 billion in June from US$3.21 billion a year earlier although oil imports surged US$3.41 billion to US$8.25 billion from US$4.84 billion in the same month of the previous year. The higher surplus was attributed to temporary factors including a US$2.39 billion surplus stemming from the adjustment of the time difference between customs clearance and the hand-over of exported ships. The service account deficit widened to US$2.13 billion in June from US$1.52 billion a year earlier, although the travel account deficit continued to shrink from the previous year’s US$1.34 billion to US$1.07 billion in June. The increased in the service account deficit was largely due to the expanded deficit in the business services. The income account recorded a robust surplus of US$830 million after being balanced a year earlier, driven by an increase in dividends and interest income. (US$ billion) 2007
2008
Apr
May
Jun
Jan-Jun
Apr
May
Jun
Jan-Jun
Current account
-2.08
0.84
1.27
-1.63
-1.58
-0.38
1.82
-5.35
- Goods balance
1.52
2.24
3.21
13.01
1.63
0.61
3.48
4.52
- Service balance
-1.40
-1.48
-1.52
-10.58
-0.98
-1.17
-2.13
-9.34
- Income balance
-2.00
0.46
0.0
-2.23
-1.93
0.46
0.83
1.04
- Current transfers
-0.20
-0.38
-0.42
-1.83
-0.03
-0.28
-0.35
-1.55
The capital and financial account balance realized a net outflow of US$3.99 billion in June as the direct and portfolio investment account recorded a huge deficit, although the other investment account show a large inflow of US$2.56 billion. Capital outflows exceeded inflows, on the back of increased overseas direct investment by locals, and net selling of domestic shares by foreign investors. Capital & financial account balance (US$ billion) 4.20 (Apr 2007)
3.60 (May)
-1.36 (Jun), -0.39 (Apr 2008)
-1.25 (May)
-3.99 (Jun)
The current account in July is likely to shift to a deficit as Korea’s trade balance posted a relatively large deficit of US$1.62 billion and the travel account deficit widened month-onmonth due to increased overseas travel by locals during summer vacations.
28
August 2008
10-1 Current account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-2 Travel balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-3 Capital & financial account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
Economic Bulletin
29
11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices Consumer prices in July rose by 5.9 percent year-on-year and 0.7 percent month-on-month, affected by higher international oil and commodity prices.
Consumer price inflation 2007
2008
Jul
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jun
Month-on-Month (%)
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.9
0.6
0.8
0.6
0.7
Year-on-Year (%)
2.4
3.0
3.5
3.6
3.9
3.6
3.9
4.1
4.9
5.5
5.9
The increase was largely attributed to upward trends of international oil prices until early July and increased prices in agriculture, livestock & fishery products during the rainy season. International oil prices in July edged up 2.7 percent on average, having been declining since mid July. Dubai crude, for example, climbed to US$131.3 from the previous month’s US$127.9. Also, prices of oil products included in consumer price index inched up 1.7 percent despite downward trends of international oil prices since mid July, as it takes 2 to 3 weeks for lowering international oil prices to pull down oil prices sold in local gas stations. Among agriculture, livestock & fishery products, prices of young radish, spinach, onion and chicken soared due to bad weather conditions and greater demands in summer season. Personal service charges continued to increase, reflecting the hikes in international oil and commodity prices. In particular, air fares and travel expenses climbed significantly as domestic air services are subject to fuel surcharges from July 1, while oil surcharge applied to international lines rose 30 percent.
Consumer price inflation in major sectors Total
Agricultural, livestock & fishery products
Industrial products
Oil products
Public utility
Housing rents
Personal services
Month-on-Month (%)
0.7
1.9
1.0
1.7
0.1
0.2
0.4
Jun 2008 contribution (%p)
0.7
0.15
0.33
0.12
0.01
0.02
0.16
Year-on-Year (%)
5.9
1.4
11.4
35.5
2.2
2.4
5.0
a. Jun 2008 contribution (%p)
5.9
0.12
3.48
2.02
0.37
0.23
1.73
b. Jan-Sep 2007 contribution (%p)
2.5
0.16
0.60
0.17
0.17
0.51
1.08
c. a-b
3.4
-0.04
2.88
1.85
0.20
-0.28
0.65
Core inflation, which excludes the prices of oil and agricultural products, rose by 4.6 percent from a year earlier fueled by increasing commodity prices. Core inflation (y-o-y, %) 2.3 (Jul 2007)
2.4 (Dec)
2.8 (Jan 2008)
2.8 (Feb)
3.3 (Mar)
3.5 (Apr)
3.9 (May)
4.3 (Jun)
4.6 (Jul)
Consumer prices for basic necessities, a barometer for perceived consumer prices, were up 7.1 percent in July compared to the same month of the previous year.
30
August 2008
11-1 Prices Source: Korea National Statistical Office (consumer prices, core inflation) & The Bank of Korea (producer prices)
11-2 Consumer price inflation Source: Korea National Statistical Office (consumer price trend)
11-3 Contribution to consumer price inflation Source: Korea National Statistical Office (consumer price trend)
Economic Bulletin
31
11.2. International oil and commodity prices International oil prices stayed high in early July hovering around US$140 a barrel due to geopolitical unrest including Iran’s nuclear test. The prices, however, went down after mid July as the US economic slowdown weakened demand for oil. Dubai crude posted US$123 a barrel as of end July. The soared oil prices this year have been eased considerably, however, still a number of economists think it is premature to expect a significant turnaround in the trend. (US$/barrel, period average) 2005
2006
2007
Annual
Annual
Annual
Jan
Feb
Mar
2008 Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Dubai crude
49.4
61.6
68.4
87.2
90.2
96.9
103.6
119.5
127.9
131.3
Brent crude
54.3
65.1
72.8
92.3
95.4
104.2
108.9
122.7
132.7
133.6
WTI crude
56.5
66.0
72.3
93.0
95.4
105.4
112.6
125.4
133.9
133.4
Record high oil prices (spot prices, US$/barrel) Dubai crude: 140.7 (Jul 4, 2008), Brent crude: 144.5 (Jul 3), WTI crude: 145.5 (Jul 14)
Prices of domestic oil products including gasoline and diesel fuels reversed course and fell after having hit an all-time high in the third week of July.
2008
(won/liter, period average) (Won/liter, period average)
2005
2006
2007
Annual
Annual
Annual
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Gasoline prices
1,432
1,492
1,526
1,652
1,654
1,670
1,698
1,803
1,907
1,923
Diesel prices
1,080
1,228
1,273
1,456
1,456
1,504
1,611
1,768
1,910
1,919
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
In July, international prices for major non-ferrous metals were up month-on-month, while prices for main grains were down compared to the previous month. Overall prices for non-ferrous metals increased, fueled by rising costs of production amid persisting high oil prices and by concerns over supply disruptions from strikes in major producing countries. Prices for grains fell as Argentina dropped the hike in export tax on grains while improved weather conditions raised hopes for better harvests. Price increases in Jul 2008 (m-o-m, %) Copper (1.0), aluminum (3.6), tin (3.6)
Price decreases in Jul 2008 (m-o-m, %) Wheat (-4.2), corn (-6.6), soybean (-0.1), nickel (-10.4), zinc (-2.8)
Reuters index*
(Period average)
2005
2006
2007
Annual
Annual
Annual
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
1,680
2,019
2,400
2,831
2,923
2,773
2,737
2,765
2,775
* A weighted average index of 17 major commodities
32
August 2008
2008
11-4 International oil prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
11-5 International oil prices (Dubai crude) and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation & Korea Customs Service 135,000
135
125,000 115,000 105,000
115
95
95,000 85,000
75
75,000 55 65,000 55,000
35
45,000 35,000
15
11-6 International commodity prices Source: Bloomberg (CRB) & The Bank of Korea (Reuters index) * CRB demonstrates futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry. 470 430 390 350 310 270 230 190 150
Economic Bulletin
33
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market In July, the pace of apartment price hikes slowed down for the third consecutive month as apartment prices in southern Seoul stabilized while apartment price growth in northern Seoul decelerated to 0.5 percent from the previous month’s 0.9 percent.
Nationwide apartment sales prices 2004
2005
Annual
Annual
Nationwide
-0.6
5.9
13.8
Seoul
-1.0
9.1
24.1
Gangnam
2006
(Percentage change from previous period) 2007
2008
Annual Annual
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Jul 71
Jul 141 Jul 211 Jul 281
2.1
0.2
0.6
1.0
0.6
0.5
0.3
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.02
3.6
0.5
1.4
2.0
0.8
0.5
0.2
0.04
0.05
0.02
0.00
-1.3
13.5
27.6
0.5
0.1
0.5
0.7
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.00
-0.01
-0.01
-0.03
Gangbuk3
-0.6
3.2
19.0
8.3
1.0
2.5
3.5
1.4
0.9
0.5
0.08
0.11
0.05
0.03
Gyeonggi
-3.7
7.6
28.4
3.0
0.2
0.7
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.3
0.07
0.05
0.03
-0.01
2
1. Weekly trends 2. Upscale area of southern Seoul Source: Kookmin Bank
3. Northern Seoul
The average rental prices of apartments in July increased a mere 0.1 percent from a month earlier as the market stays sluggish in July, the low season for apartment rentals.
Nationwide apartment rental prices 2004
2005
Annual
Annual
Nationwide
-2.7
5.7
7.6
Seoul
-4.4
6.2
Gangnam
2006
(Percentage change from previous period)
2007
2008
Annual Annual
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Jul 71
Jul 141 Jul 211 Jul 281
1.9
0.2
0.5
0.6
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.03
11.5
2.2
0.3
0.7
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.02
0.02
0.03
-0.01
-5.2
8.6
11.3
0.5
0.2
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.03
0.02
0.00
-0.02
Gangbuk3
-3.3
2.9
11.8
4.6
0.4
1.0
1.0
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.01
0.02
0.05
0.00
Gyeonggi
-5.5
10.6
12.4
2.0
0.3
0.7
0.8
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.03
0.02
-0.02
0.00
2
1. Weekly trends 2. Upscale area of southern Seoul Source: Kookmin Bank
3. Northern Seoul
Apartment sales transactions in June increased slightly from the previous month.
Apartment sales transactions 2005
2006
Annual Annual 79
94
August 2008
2008
2007 Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
61
68
65
55
80
80
76
80
70
88
97
82
85
Source: Korea Land Corporation
34
(Monthly average, thousand)
12-1 Real estate prices Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
12-2 Weekly apartment sales prices and monthly transaction volume Source: Kookmin Bank (weekly APT price trend) & Korea Land Corporation (monthly land trade trend)
12-3 Apartment prices by region Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
Economic Bulletin
35
12.2 Land market Nationwide land prices in June grew 0.47 percent from a month earlier as land prices in the Seoul metropolitan area stayed on the upward track. Out of 248 cities, counties and districts, 63 areas including 54 in the Seoul metropolitan area witnessed a higher price increase than the national average of 0.47 percent. Nevertheless, the rest saw a below-the-average price gain.
Land prices by region
(Percentage change from previous period) 2006
2005 Annual Annual
2007
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Nationwide
4.98
5.61
1.31
1.43
1.25
1.50
3.88
0.96
0.79
0.91
1.15
0.46
0.50
0.48
0.47
Seoul
6.56
9.17
1.78
2.37
2.19
2.53
5.88
1.38
1.07
1.40
1.90
0.70
0.77
0.71
0.66
Gyeonggi
5.69
5.07
1.12
1.29
1.05
1.51
4.22
1.07
0.89
1.05
1.14
0.47
0.51
0.54
0.51
South Chungcheong
8.32
5.54
2.77
1.31
0.69
0.67
2.02
0.46
0.41
0.42
0.71
0.24
0.25
0.27
0.29
Nationwide land transactions in June registered 244,440 land lots, increasing 27.7 percent from a year earlier while falling 1.3 percent from the previous month.
Land sales transactions 2004
(Monthly average, land lot, thousand) 2005
2006
2007
Annual Annual Annual Annual
2008
Jun
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jul
Nationwide
218
248
237
208
191
196
157
242
216
190
237
269
248
244
Seoul
34
36
44
33
24
24
22
34
24
24
32
41
36
38
Gyeonggi
52
56
63
49
45
48
38
61
44
40
50
61
58
55
North Chungcheong
8
11
9
9
8
8
6
10
10
9
10
11
10
9
South Chungcheong
20
17
12
11
10
9
7
12
10
12
15
13
15
15
36
August 2008
12-4 Land and consumer prices since 1970s Source: Korea Land Corporation (land prices) & Korea National Statistical Office (consumer prices)
12-5 Land prices by region Source: Korea Land Corporation (land price trend)
12-6 Land trade volume Source: Korea Land Corporation (land trade trend)
Economic Bulletin
37
13. Composite indexes of business cycle indicators The cyclical indicator of coincident composite index, a barometer of current economic conditions, fell in May for the fifth consecutive month with a decrease of 0.5 points from the previous month. Three out of all components of the index, i.e., the number of non-farm payroll employment, the mining and manufacturing production index, and the service production index, were up, while the wholesale & retail sales index (down 1.1%), the imports (down 0.6%p), the value of construction completed (down 0.6%p), the domestic shipment index (down 0.6%p), and the manufacturing operation ratio index (down 0.4%p) went down. Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (m-o-m, p) 0.3 (Jan 2008)
-0.3 (Feb)
-0.3 (Mar)
-0.4 (Apr)
-0.1 (May)
-0.5 (Jun)
The year-on-year leading composite index, which foresees the future economic conditions, has gone down for seven straight months with an on-month decrease of 1.1 percentage points in June. The composite stock price index, the capital goods imports, the ratio of job openings to job seekers, and spreads between long and short-term interest rates were up, while the other six components of the leading composite index fell. Six components of the leading composite index fell in Jul 2008 (m-o-m) Indicator of inventory cycle (-3.6%p), consumer expectations index (-3.7p), value of machinery orders received (-0.7%), the value of construction orders received (-8.1%), liquidity in the financial institutions (-1.2%), the net barter terms of trade (-1.0%)
12 month smoothed change in leading composite index (m-o-m, %p) -1.3 (Jan 2008)
-1.4 (Feb)
-1.1 (Mar)
-0.4 (Apr)
-0.5 (May)
-1.1 (Jun)
2008 Feb
Mar
Apr1
May1
Jun1
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.3
-0.1
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index
101.2
100.9
100.5
100.4
99.9
(m-o-m, p)
-0.3
-0.3
-0.4
-0.1
-0.5
Leading composite index (m-o-m, %)
-0.7
-0.4
0.2
0.1
-0.4
12 month smoothed change in leading composite index (%)
4.3
3.2
2.8
2.3
1.2
(m-o-m, %p)
-1.4
-1.1
-0.4
-0.5
-1.1
Coincident composite index (m-o-m, %)
1. Preliminary
38
August 2008
13-1 Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index Source: Korea National Statistical Office
13-2 Leading composite index Source: Korea National Statistical Office
13-3 Coincident and leading composite indexes Source: Korea National Statistical Office
Economic Bulletin
39
Policy Issues National Spatial Strategy for Balanced Development An approach to enhance regional competitiveness and secure sustainable growth potential across South Korea
1. Outline of the strategy for regional development The Korean government announced its strategy for regional development following the first meeting of the Presidential Committee on Balanced National Development on July 21, 2008. This strategy aims to achieve a better balance of social, economic and physical development between regions. By doing so, it will enable every part of the country to grow to its potential, enhance the quality of life of the public and stimulate job creation. The strategy consists of five pillars; first, achieving maximum growth potential through balanced development across the country; second, creating a spatial vision specific to region through the fostering of new growth engines; third, strengthening decentralization by transferring administrative and financial authority to municipalities; fourth, fostering a win-win approach to the development of the Seoul-metropolitan area and provincial areas; and fifth, drawing up complementary plans for “innovative cities� and the multifunctional administrative city which were put forth by the administration of former president Roh Moo-Hyun. To implement this strategy, the Ministry of Strategy and Finance unveiled its plan to enhance the competitiveness of each region through diverse policy tools such as financial support, tax incentives, and regulatory reform.
40
August 2008
2. National Spatial strategy
Under its regional development strategy, the government divided the country into three groupings - basic livelihood areas, seven metropolitan economic areas, and four megalopolis areas. First of all, basic livelihood areas are designed to connect 162 local cities and counties with medium and small cities, towns, and surrounding rural areas, co-developing urban and rural areas. By doing so, these areas could set the foundation for developing secondary and tertiary industries and promoting tourism attractions, as well as improving living environments including education, medicine, and culture. Secondly, seven metropolitan economic areas consist of five areas with a population of more than 5 million people - the Seoul metropolitan, Chungcheong, Honam, DaeguKyungbook and the South East area - and two areas with a population of about 1 million people - Gangwon and Jeju. Each area is encouraged to adopt its development projects and create new growth engines regionally, while the government provides financial assistance. In particular, new growth points designated in each area are linked to the existing “innovative cities,� the multi-functional administrative city and free economic zones, which will serve as hubs for fostering talented people and creating high quality and knowledge-intensive jobs. Thirdly, megalopolis areas include four belts - the South, East and West coast belt areas, and the border belt near the Demilitarized Zone. As part of key development projects, these areas will have the full financial support of the government.
Megalopolis areas South coast belt
Development Vision To create new growth points and develop them as hubs for the infrastructure industry, logistics, and tourism in the Pacific Rim
East coast belt
To create energy clusters including new and renewable energy and develop tourism/leisure destinations To nurture key industries including next-generation IT services,
West coast belt
automobiles, steelmaking, and logistics which would vie with those of China in the Yellow Sea Rim To preserve ecological resources, and establish inter-Korean
Border belt
exchange complexes in an effort to guarantee permanent peace on the Korean Peninsula, as well as to promote inter-Korean exchanges
Economic Bulletin
41
In principle, the strategy will be driven by the government, but a consortium which consists of government agencies, municipalities, and private experts, will be formed to discuss and cooperate with each other. Infrastructure for megalopolis areas such as traffic networks will be constructed mainly by the government, while private investments will be channeled into profitable businesses in tourism and leisure.
3. Political tools (1) Financial support Under the strategy for regional development, the Ministry of Strategy and Finance decided to scale up the existing special budget for balanced development (about US$ 7.6 billion, as of 2008) into a special budget for regional and metropolitan area development (about US$ 9 billion), which will be applied from 2010. The special budget for regional and metropolitan area development includes regional accounts of US$ 4 billion and metropolitan ones of US$ 5 billion. The regional account will be used to integrate 210 detailed projects into 20 business groupings in order to promote local government-led development and enhance the autonomy of municipalities. Local
42
August 2008
governments can freely decide how to develop and run a specific business within the scope of the goals and resources of the 20 business groupings. Post-evaluation and feedback on the results will be sought. On the other hand, the metropolitan account aims to invest in developing strategic industries and fostering local major colleges, in an attempt to improve the competitiveness of the metropolitan economic areas. This account will be used as a way of harmonizing local government-led development projects with resource allocation by the central government. (2) Tax incentives Tax incentives for regional development will be introduced to improve the financial capability of local governments through regional development. In case the effort to attract corporations at the regional levels cause local governments to pay more corporate and value-added taxes than an average increase rate of those taxes, the surplus tax paid will be given back to municipalities in the form of incentives. In addition, tax support and streamlined procedures will be provided for the existing growth points such as “company cities,” free economic zones, and the Jeju special selfgoverning province. (3) Regulatory reform and institutional improvement First of all, regulatory authority will be transferred to the heads of local governments accomplishing a one-stop approval system. Setting up a regular “City/Province Economic Conference” could serve as a channel for regulatory reform. Moreover, a stimulus package for economic growth in each region will be developed and implemented, to counteract the effects of rising oil prices and other causes of economic downturn. The package includes the development of local financial sectors, improvement of the quality of education, and revitalization of traditional markets.
4. Way forward To implement the strategy for regional development, detailed measures will be developed in stages. In the first stage, the special budget for regional and metropolitan area development will be created, and tax incentives for regional development will be introduced. In the second stage, tax breaks for “company cities” and free economic zones will be extended. The relevant bill will be submitted to the National Assembly in 2008 and the legislation will come into effect in 2009. In the third stage, measures for regulatory reform and institutional improvement will be drawn up in the second half of this year after discussions between relevant government agencies for implementation in 2009.
Economic Bulletin
43
Economic News Briefing
Korean economy grows 0.8% in the 2nd quarter (advanced) Korea’s real GDP increased 0.8 percent in the second quarter of 2008, the same pace as the expansion for the first quarter, as brisk exports and manufacturing output offset sluggish private consumption and construction investments. It expanded 4.8 percent from a year earlier in the April-June period.
GDP by production and expenditure*
(Percentage change from previous period)
2006
20081
20071
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
GDP
1.2 (6.3)
0.8 (5.2)
1.3 (5.0)
0.8 (4.2)
1.0 (4.0)
1.7 (4.9)
1.5 (5.1)
1.6 (5.7)
0.8 (5.8)
0.8 (4.8)
Agriculture, forestry and fishery
-1.4
-0.3
-0.5
1.6
0.8
-1.0
0.9
-1.1
0.5
2.0 (4.5)
Manufacturing
1.8
1.0
2.2
0.3
0.4
3.1
2.5
2.9
0.7
2.2 (8.5)
Construction
-0.3
0.0
3.8
-0.2
0.2
-0.8
0.6
1.0
-0.5
-2.4 (-1.4)
Services3
1.1
0.8
0.9
1.4
1.1
1.4
1.5
0.8
0.5
0.5 (3.3)
Private consumption
1.3
0.7
0.9
0.9
1.6
0.9
1.3
0.8
0.4
-0.1 (2.4)
Facility investment
-0.9
1.7
6.3
-1.7
4.5
1.6
-1.8
2.1
-0.4
1.0 (0.8)
Construction investment
-0.4
0.1
2.2
1.2
-0.3
-1.2
0.2
1.2
-1.4
-0.6 (-0.8)
Goods exports4
2.6
4.5
3.3
-0.7
3.3
4.3
1.8
7.4
-1.8
3.7 (11.8)
2.4
5.3
2.5
-2.1
4.0
5.9
-2.4
9.9
-1.9
4.1 (9.1)
-0.4
0.5
0.7
2.5
-0.3
1.4
1.3
0.3
-2.1
1.6 (1.1)
Goods imports
4
GDI
*At 2000 constant prices, seasonally adjusted terms 1. Preliminary 2. Figures in parenthesis denote percentage changes from same period in previous year in original terms. 3. Wholesale & retail sales, hotels & restaurants, transportation & storage, communication services, financial & insurance services, real estate, business services, public administration, defense & social security, educational services, healthcare & social welfare services and other services are included. 4. FOB basis
44
August 2008
Exports of goods, which account for about 40 percent of South Korea’s GDP, grew 3.7 percent quarter-on-quarter in the three months ending June 30, driven by outbound shipments of machinery and electronic goods. Exports declined 1.8 percent from three months earlier. Private spending, one of the main growth engines of the Korean economy, edged down 0.1 percent, compared with a 0.4 percent gain in the preceding quarter. Consumer spending contracted for the first time since it fell 0.1 percent quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of 2004.
Presidents of Korea and the US to push for early ratification of KORUS FTA President Lee Myung-bak and US President George W. Bush bowed to push for the ratification of the Korea-US (KORUS) free trade agreement (FTA) by their national legislatures and urged North Korea to improve its human rights conditions and accept rigorous terms for its nuclear program verification, during their summit meeting held in Seoul on August 6. According to the joint statement issued after the summit meeting, the two Presidents reaffirmed the principles that were agreed upon in the previous two summits in April and July. Both leaders assured once again that the KORUS FTA would boost trade and economic growth and create jobs in both Korea and the US. They also committed themselves to working with their respective legislatures to approve the KORUS FTA as soon as possible. President Lee and President Bush agreed on other issues such as helping North Korea integrate into the international community, thereby partaking in the peace and prosperity on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia, said the statement. In addition, two leaders agreed to develop the Korea-US alliance in a future-oriented way and to expand cooperation on important bilateral, regional and global issues, during their summit meeting.
Deregulatory measures to boost competitiveness in the financial sector The Ministry of Strategy and Finance revised regulations on foreign exchange (forex) transactions to bolster the competitiveness of the Korean financial system. The scope of forex businesses was expanded as of July 25, and the process required for financial institutions to expand abroad was streamlined to be effective starting from September 1. The revision is in line with the changes in the financial environment, such as the Financial Investment Services and Capital Market Act which will come into effect in early 2009. Security firms, with equity capital worth of 300 million won or more, no longer need to report their credit derivative transactions in advance to the Bank of Korea (BOK), except for some
Economic Bulletin
45
limited cases. Also, forex derivative transactions by asset management companies, with equity capital worth of 100 million won or more, will be fully exempted from prior reporting requirements. Before the revision, this prior reporting was mandatory. Authorities permit such transactions exceptionally after assessing the volume and number of transactions and related potential risks. In addition, financial companies will be able to establish their overseas subsidiaries and offices by simply reporting to the Financial Services Commission. Currently, however, they are required to visit the Financial Services Commission for a prior check and to give notice of overseas expansion to the Ministry of Strategy and Finance.
President Lee’s active resource diplomacy amid high oil prices President Lee Myung-bak held a series of bilateral summit talks, especially focusing on energy cooperation, on the sideline of an expanded G8 summit meeting held in Japan through July 8 to 9. On July 8, President Lee asked Brazilian President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva and Mexican President Felipe Calderon to support Korean firms seeking to make inroads into two countries’ energy and natural resources sectors during the summit talks held separately in Japan. Lee showed expectations for closer energy cooperation with Brazil and Mexico which are rich in various energy and mineral resources. Korea agreed with two countries to expand practical mutual cooperation in overall economic and industrial fields, as well as in global issues such as climate change. Korea is making strengthened efforts to deal with a potential energy crisis. Along with its proactive energy diplomacy, it also plans to bump its renewable-energy investments by 60 percent or US$194.4 million this year.
Government will remove red tape to ease foreigners’ land purchase The Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs announced on July 29 that the cabinet meeting had agreed on the revision of regulations requiring foreigners to submit a separate foreigner land acquisition form. So far, foreigners who purchase land property in Korea should submit a separate form of foreigner land acquisition as well as the regular transaction report to relevant local governments. The amendment is part of the government’s efforts to remove unnecessary administrative
46
August 2008
red tape to establish a favorable environment where foreigners are willing to invest. The amendment will be sent to the National Assembly for approval early next month. If it is passed by lawmakers, new regulations will come into force in six months. This change is in line with applying Most-Favored Nation (MFN) treatment to all foreign nationals who buy land if they are from World Trade Organization member (WTO) states.
Fitch keeps Korea’s credit rating at “A” plus The world renowned credit rating agency, Fitch Ratings has affirmed South Korea’s sovereign rating at “A” plus and the outlook as stable. Despite potential security risks and costs for a peaceful reunification of the two Koreas, Korea is in sound condition in terms of fiscal prudence and its external sector, said Fitch. The agency added that ongoing domestic political situation regarding the resumption of US beef imports may slow down the incumbent government’s policy reforms, but it has “minimal rating implications”. Fitch forecasted Korea would maintain its fiscal surplus for nine consecutive years and its external financial position would remain fundamentally sound. Therefore, risks related to the rise in short-term debt will be offset, said Fitch. In addition, the global credit appraiser said that Korea’s liquidity ratio stood at 161 percent, higher than the “A” median of 129 percent in 2008. Although high oil prices, the sluggish global economy, and consequent declines in consumer and business sentiment may weight down Korea’s immediate growth prospect to around 4 percent in 2008, Korea’s diversified industrial and export base will help Korea’s economy gain resilience.
Manufacturing labor productivity up 8.4% in first three months of 2008 South Korea’s labor productivity in the manufacturing sector grew 8.4 percent year-on-year in the first quarter this year, maintaining robust growth momentum. According to a survey of 7,208 companies engaging in 25 different industries nationwide conducted by the Ministry of Knowledge Economy and the Korea Productivity Center, the productivity gained persistently with the growth rate of 10.2 percent and 8.1 percent, respectively in the 3rd and 4th quarters in 2007. Despite slowdowns in the private consumption and facility investment, productivity remained on its upward trajectory, as the year-on-year growth of industrial output (10.6%) surpassed the year-on-year growth of labor input (2.1%), on the back of a 12 percent increase in exports. The ministry said that the information technology (IT) sector led gains by jumping 31.2 percent year-on-year, with heavy industries posting an increase of 10.8 percent. On the other hand, labor productivity in the light industry edged up 1.8 percent, while that in the non-IT sector gained 3.1 percent. Labor productivity at large conglomerates was up 10.1 percent, while that of SMEs gained a moderate 3.2 percent.
Economic Bulletin
47
Treasury bond’s English names will be standardized As part of an effort to attract more Treasury bond investments by non-Korean residents, the English names of Treasury Bonds will be standardized. Currently, there are several versions of English names for Treasury Bonds, causing confusion among foreign investors. Therefore, Korea, with the help of the Korea Exchange (KRX), standardized English names for Treasury bond and asked for cooperation from international news agencies such as KOSCOM, Reuters, Bloomberg, etc. Based on the Korean names of Treasury bonds, their official English names will be made in three forms; the full name, the abbreviated version, and the acronym used for ticker. In line with the global trend, English names for foreign currency-denominated foreign exchange stabilization bonds include a notation of the ‘Korea International Bond (KTB),’ so as for foreign investors to recognize that the bonds are issued by the Korean government.
48
August 2008
Statistical Appendices Tables & Figures 1. National accounts 2. Production, shipment and inventory 3. Production capacity and operation ratio 4. Consumer goods sales index 5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment, and estimated facility investment index 7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received 8. Composite indexes of business cycle indicators and BSI 9. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment and earnings 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates
Economic Bulletin
49
1. National accounts (year-on-year change, %, 2000 constant prices) Real GDP Period
Gross fixed capital formation
Final consumption expenditure
Agri., fores. & fisheries
Manufacturing
1.2
17.0
7.1
Construction
Facilities
12.2
-0.8
33.6
2000
8.5
2001
3.8
1.1
2.2
4.9
-0.2
6.0
-9.0
2002
7.0
-3.5
7.6
7.6
6.6
5.3
7.5
2003
3.1
-5.3
5.5
-0.3
4.0
7.9
-1.2
2004
4.7
9.2
11.1
0.4
2.1
1.1
3.8
2005
4.2
0.7
7.1
3.9
2.4
-0.2
5.7
2006
5.0
-1.5
8.5
4.8
3.6
-0.1
7.8
2007P
5.0
1.1
6.5
4.7
4.0
1.2
7.6
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007P
2008P
I
6.5
6.7
5.2
9.4
7.7
11.0
3.3
II
7.0
-2.7
6.2
8.5
7.3
6.0
8.0
III
6.8
-3.2
7.4
7.3
2.4
-2.4
9.1
IV
7.5
-5.5
11.4
5.3
9.1
8.4
9.6
I
3.8
-3.3
5.8
1.2
4.7
7.7
2.3
II
2.2
0.5
3.3
-0.6
4.2
7.9
-0.4
III
2.3
-7.8
4.2
-1.0
2.7
7.7
-4.6
IV
4.1
-6.9
8.6
-0.9
4.3
8.3
-2.0
I
5.4
10.1
11.9
-0.4
2.4
4.9
-0.1
II
5.7
4.2
13.6
0.7
4.7
3.8
6.4
III
4.7
4.3
11.7
0.1
2.9
1.0
6.8
IV
3.3
13.3
7.7
1.3
-1.1
-3.3
2.4
I
2.9
-0.1
5.4
2.0
0.5
-3.3
3.8
II
3.4
3.1
5.1
3.9
2.1
1.1
3.1
III
4.8
1.9
7.5
4.8
2.2
-0.1
5.0
IV
5.5
-0.5
10.1
4.9
4.3
0.4
10.8
I
6.3
2.8
10.1
5.4
4.2
1.1
7.1
II
5.2
-2.2
9.6
4.6
0.2
-5.3
7.5
III
5.0
-4.1
9.0
4.7
5.1
0.2
11.4
IV
4.2
-0.9
5.6
4.6
4.9
3.6
5.4
I
4.0
5.8
3.8
4.5
7.2
3.7
10.9
II
4.9
1.1
6.1
4.9
5.5
1.6
11.0
III
5.1
3.5
6.3
4.7
1.3
-0.1
2.3
IV
5.7
-0.7
9.5
4.8
2.9
0.4
6.5
I
5.8
2.0
9.3
3.5
0.5
-1.1
1.4
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
50
August 2008
Growth rate by economic activity
2008
Growth rate by expenditure on GDP
Economic Bulletin
51
2. Production, shipment and inventory See graphs 6-1, 6-3, 7-1, 7-2 & 7-3 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
Production index
2006 2007
Y-o-Y change (%)
Shipment index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Inventory index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Service production index
Y-o-Y change (%)
108.4 115.8
8.4 6.8
107.6 115.2
7.6 7.1
110.8 117.2
9.3 5.7
105.5 112.3
5.5 6.4
2006
I II III IV
105.3 108.1 106.4 113.8
10.5 9.0 9.9 4.8
104.2 107.6 106.0 112.8
8.8 8.1 9.4 4.5
108.6 110.0 109.5 111.0
9.3 11.7 11.1 9.3
101.5 105.0 105.2 110.4
6.4 6.0 4.7 5.1
2007
I II II IV
109.5 114.8 112.7 126.1
4.0 6.2 5.9 10.8
109.5 115.0 111.7 124.5
5.1 6.9 5.4 10.4
114.0 114.3 112.4 117.3
5.0 3.9 2.6 5.7
107.0 111.4 112.8 117.9
5.4 6.1 7.2 6.8
2008
I IIP
121.1 124.7
10.6 8.6
119.2 122.4
8.9 6.4
124.3 132.5
9.0 15.9
113.7
6.3
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
103.8 100.4 111.8 107.0 109.5 107.9 99.8 104.3 115.0 110.8 118.5 112.0
5.6 18.7 8.6 7.8 9.8 9.3 1.5 10.0 17.9 4.8 7.0 2.1
101.8 99.7 111.1 106.6 108.8 107.5 98.5 104.8 114.6 109.3 117.0 112.0
4.2 15.7 7.3 6.8 9.9 7.9 1.0 9.5 17.5 4.1 6.9 2.6
107.0 106.6 108.6 107.5 110.1 110.0 112.5 109.6 109.5 109.6 110.2 111.0
4.6 6.8 9.3 7.0 7.6 11.7 11.6 11.8 11.1 11.2 10.6 9.3
101.8 96.8 106.0 104.3 106.3 104.3 102.4 105.0 108.3 106.0 108.7 116.4
7.0 6.4 6.0 6.5 6.4 4.7 2.3 5.1 6.7 3.9 5.7 5.6
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
112.7 100.2 115.5 113.6 115.7 115.0 113.3 113.5 111.4 128.4 127.5 122.5
8.6 -0.2 3.3 6.2 5.7 6.6 13.5 8.8 -3.1 15.9 7.6 9.4
110.2 101.6 116.7 114.4 115.9 114.8 112.4 112.3 110.4 126.1 125.9 121.6
8.3 1.9 5.0 7.3 6.6 6.8 14.1 7.2 -3.7 15.4 7.6 8.6
118.5 115.5 114.0 111.8 114.1 114.3 115.3 115.3 112.4 114.7 114.9 117.3
10.7 8.3 5.0 4.0 3.6 3.9 2.5 5.2 2.6 4.7 4.3 5.7
106.1 103.2 111.7 109.6 112.2 112.3 112.2 113.1 113.0 115.1 115.6 123.1
4.2 6.6 5.4 5.1 5.6 7.7 9.6 7.7 4.3 8.6 6.3 5.8
2008 1 2 3 4 5P 6P
125.3 110.5 127.4 125.7 125.7 122.7
11.2 10.3 10.3 10.7 8.6 6.7
121.2 109.4 126.9 124.1 123.1 120.0
10.0 7.7 8.7 8.5 6.2 4.5
124.0 124.6 124.3 125.2 129.0 132.5
4.6 7.9 9.0 12.0 13.1 15.9
114.0 109.3 118.1 116.2 117.4 115.5
7.4 5.9 5.7 6.0 4.9 2.8
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
52
August 2008
3. Production capacity and operation ratio See graph 6-2
Period
2006 2007
Y-o-Y change (%)
Operation ratio index (2005=100)
Y-o-Y change (%)
Average operation ratio (%)
104.1 109.5
4.1 5.2
100.3 100.5
0.3 0.2
80.0 80.3
Production capacity index (2005=100)
2006
I II III IV
102.9 103.6 104.0 105.8
4.8 4.2 3.7 3.6
99.3 101.9 97.9 102.0
2.4 0.9 1.3 -3.2
81.0 79.6 79.1 80.3
2007
I II III IV
107.3 108.2 110.0 112.5
4.3 4.4 5.8 6.3
97.3 102.8 96.3 105.6
-2.0 0.9 -1.6 3.5
79.4 80.7 80.0 81.0
2008
I IIP
113.6 114.9
5.9 6.2
99.0 102.6
1.7 -0.2
81.1 80.9
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
102.7 102.8 103.3 103.3 103.8 103.8 103.7 103.9 104.4 105.4 105.8 106.1
4.9 4.8 4.9 4.3 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5
97.3 95.0 105.6 100.8 103.0 101.8 91.6 95.3 106.9 99.8 107.3 98.8
-3.4 11.5 0.4 -0.8 2.1 1.3 -7.5 1.2 10.8 -4.5 -0.6 -4.6
82.1 80.4 80.6 79.4 79.1 80.2 75.0 80.1 82.1 81.4 80.7 78.8
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.1 107.3 107.6 107.7 108.1 108.7 109.4 110.0 110.6 112.2 112.4 112.8
4.3 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.7 5.5 5.9 5.9 6.5 6.2 6.3
98.8 88.4 103.7 101.6 104.0 102.7 98.4 96.6 93.8 109.4 107.4 99.9
2.6 -6.9 -1.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 7.4 1.4 -12.3 9.6 0.1 1.1
79.1 79.7 79.3 80.1 81.0 80.9 80.5 81.0 78.6 81.6 80.6 80.9
2008 1 2 3 4 5P 6P
113.5 113.4 113.9 114.3 115.0 115.3
6.0 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.4 6.1
103.0 89.3 104.6 104.1 102.9 100.7
3.2 1 0.9 2.5 -1.1 -1.9
81.8 80.3 81.1 82.2 80.2 80.3
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
Economic Bulletin
53
4. Consumer goods sales index See graphs 2-2, 2-3, 2-4 & 2-5 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
2006 2007
Consumer goods sales index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Y-o-Y change (%)
Semi-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
104.1 109.6
4.1 5.3
111.2 123.4
11.2 11.0
103.0 106.0
3.0 2.9
101.7 105.5
1.7 3.7
2006
I II III IV
100.9 104.2 100.3 110.8
4.7 5.6 3.1 3.0
102.0 110.2 113.2 119.4
13.8 11.8 11.7 8.1
96.9 105.1 90.7 119.2
3.7 3.4 2.7 2.2
102.2 101.4 99.1 103.9
1.8 3.9 -0.2 1.2
2007
I I III IV
106.7 108.6 107.4 115.8
5.7 4.2 7.1 4.5
118.0 123.6 124.6 127.6
15.7 12.2 10.1 6.9
100.4 107.4 93.6 122.7
3.6 2.2 3.2 2.9
104.6 103.1 106.1 108.1
2.3 1.7 7.1 4.0
2008
I IlP
110.9 111.3
3.9 2.5
127.7 133.0
8.2 7.6
105.8 105.7
5.4 -1.6
106.2 104.8
1.5 1.6
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
105.1 93.6 104.1 102.8 106.0 103.9 96.8 98.4 105.8 106.4 109.7 116.4
9.5 0.5 3.9 5.0 6.1 5.7 -0.6 4.7 5.3 4.2 3.6 1.5
97.1 99.1 110.0 105.7 110.1 114.7 107.3 112.9 119.4 110.8 122.3 125.2
9.0 20.0 13.3 9.9 11.9 13.3 -2.3 13.0 26.6 8.8 10.6 5.1
98.2 90.7 102.0 107.8 110.0 97.6 91.3 79.5 101.3 111.3 119.2 127.2
4.4 3.0 4.2 3.8 4.1 2.4 1.9 3.0 3.2 -1.5 4.7 3.2
111.2 92.6 102.7 99.6 102.7 102.0 94.8 100.4 102.2 102.7 100.7 108.4
11.8 -6.8 0.3 3.5 4.6 3.8 -0.7 1.9 -1.7 5.0 0.0 -1.0
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
106.2 103.5 110.3 106.9 111.5 107.5 105.4 104.1 112.6 113.4 114.5 119.4
1.0 10.6 6.0 4.0 5.2 3.5 8.9 5.8 6.4 6.6 4.4 2.6
117.3 109.7 126.8 119.5 125.7 125.7 128.9 125.4 119.4 121.6 129.3 131.9
20.8 10.7 15.3 13.1 14.2 9.6 20.1 11.1 0.0 9.7 5.7 5.4
98.9 95.1 107.3 108.7 112.5 101.0 93.8 81.4 105.5 117.3 122.5 128.3
0.7 4.9 5.2 0.8 2.3 3.5 2.7 2.4 4.1 5.4 2.8 0.9
104.7 104.4 104.8 101.0 105.4 102.8 100.7 104.8 112.8 108.4 105.3 110.7
-5.8 12.7 2.0 1.4 2.6 0.8 6.2 4.4 10.4 5.6 4.6 2.1
2008 1 2 3 4 5P 6P
111.1 106.5 115.1 112.7 114.8 106.4
4.6 2.9 4.4 5.4 3.0 -1.0
125.9 116.1 141.0 137.6 135.4 126.1
7.3 5.8 11.2 15.1 7.7 0.3
107.8 100.9 108.6 107.4 109.5 100.3
9.0 6.1 1.2 -1.2 -2.7 -0.7
106.4 104.9 107.3 104.8 108.6 100.9
1.6 0.5 2.4 3.8 3.0 -1.8
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
54
Durable goods
August 2008
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index See graph 2-6
Period
2006 2007
Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2005=100) Y-o-Y change (%)
Consumer sentiment index Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Present Expectations situation index index
106.6 112.7
6.6 5.7
110.4 124.7
10.4 13.0
105.0 107.9
5.0 2.8
-
-
2006
I II III IV
102.5 103.0 108.7 112.1
7.7 6.6 8.1 4.2
101.9 106.5 112.4 120.8
13.6 9.7 11.5 7.5
102.7 101.6 107.2 108.6
5.3 5.4 6.7 2.8
-
-
2007
I II III IV
110.6 110.8 111.2 118.3
7.9 7.6 2.3 5.5
119.3 122.6 123.2 133.8
17.1 15.1 9.6 10.8
107.2 106.0 106.3 112.2
4.4 4.3 -0.8 3.3
-
-
2008
I II
117.3 116.7
6.1 5.3
133.9 138.2
12.2 12.7
110.6 108.1
3.2 2.0
-
-
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
103.4 96.6 107.4 101.4 103.9 103.6 99.7 106.5 119.8 108.8 114.4 113.1
3.7 12.5 7.3 5.6 7.9 6.3 1.5 5.4 16.8 2.8 6.8 3.0
96.8 99.0 110.0 100.3 106.0 113.3 100.6 109.7 126.8 116.7 123.5 122.2
7.8 21.8 12.2 6.9 10.0 12.0 -3.8 11.5 27.6 6.7 8.9 6.8
106.0 95.7 106.3 101.9 103.1 99.7 99.4 105.2 116.9 105.6 110.8 109.5
2.2 9.0 5.4 5.2 7.1 3.9 4.0 3.1 12.6 1.2 5.9 1.4
104.5 103.8 103.4 100.6 98.0 97.4 94.3 93.7 94.8 93.9 95.2 93.7
88.4 89.0 90.1 87.2 83.0 81.9 78.7 77.8 78.9 80.7 77.3 77.1
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
114.3 103.8 113.8 111.2 112.7 108.4 109.6 112.6 111.3 121.4 117.2 116.4
10.5 7.5 6.0 9.7 8.5 4.6 9.9 5.7 -7.1 11.6 2.4 2.9
117.3 112.9 127.6 119.5 125.5 122.7 124.5 124.5 120.7 137.0 132.8 131.5
21.2 14.0 16.0 19.1 18.4 8.3 23.8 13.5 -4.8 17.4 7.5 7.6
113.1 100.1 108.3 107.9 107.5 102.6 103.6 107.8 107.6 115.2 111.0 110.3
6.7 4.6 1.9 5.9 4.3 2.9 4.2 2.5 -8.0 9.1 0.2 0.7
96.1 98.1 97.8 100.1 101.1 101.5 102.6 103.0 103.2 103.3 102.0 104.0
79.3 82.3 83.3 87.4 89.6 90.4 91.4 91.4 92.0 92.5 88.0 85.1
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
124.2 106.6 121.0 120.5 116.8P 112.8P -
132.8 123.5 145.3 145.5 138.8P 130.4P -
13.2 9.4 13.9 21.8 10.6P 6.3P -
120.8 99.8 111.2 110.5 108.0 P 105.8P -
6.8 -0.3 2.7 2.4 0.5P 3.1P -
105.9 103.1 99.7 100.4 92.2 86.8 84.6
82.7 81.8 76.4 80.0 72.2 61.3 59.2
8.7 2.7 6.3 8.2 3.6P 4.1P -
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
Economic Bulletin
55
6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment and estimated facility investment index See graph 3-2 Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant prices) Period
2007
Estimated facility investment index (2000=100)
Domestic machinery shipment excluding ship (2005=100)
Total
Public
Private
34,143
2,205
31,938
17,424
126.5
114.0
Manufacturing
2006
I II III IV
6,849 7,329 6,833 7,188
300 559 661 963
6,549 6,770 6,171 6,225
3,421 3,552 3,094 3,137
112.6 116.8 117.4 119.0
103.7 116.5 108.1 115.0
2007
I II III IV
8,145 7,849 8,139 10,012
342 292 484 1,087
7,803 7,556 7,655 8,924
3,873 9,825 7,257 5,470
127.0 130.7 118.2 130.0
109.8 119.3 106.3 120.5
2008
I llP
10,197 8,518
372 536
9,825 7,982
5,429 3,627
125.9 130.8
111.2 120.7
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2,639 2,812 2,694 2,473 2,598 2,778 2,613 2,425 3,101 3,735 3,234 3,043
89 150 103 94 91 107 170 128 186 89 217 781
2,550 2,661 2,591 2,378 2,506 2,671 2,442 2,297 2,916 3,646 3,017 2,262
1,294 1,390 1,189 1,220 1,204 1,401 1,239 1,115 1,902 2,481 1,846 1,144
121.6 120.3 139.1 137.2 130.0 125.1 120.1 122.4 112.1 121.8 129.2 139.0
103.9 102.2 123.3 114.0 122.5 121.4 111.0 104.9 102.9 112.9 120.0 128.6
2008 1 2 3 4 5P 6P
3,810 3,044 3,343 2,914 2,675 2,928
149 68 155 95 90 351
3,661 2,976 3,188 2,819 2,585 2,578
2,197 1,723 1,510 1,302 1,101 1,224
119.4 118.0 140.3 134.6 127.3 130.5
105.7 102.6 125.2 119.3 122.3 120.4
Y-o-Y change (%) 2007
21.1
-11.2
24.2
31.9
8.6
2.9
2006
I II III IV
10.1 21.9 18.1 15.0
-57.0 43.1 14.3 19.2
18.6 20.4 18.5 14.4
29.0 26.7 33.4 29.4
7.4 9.1 12.8 6.4
12.1 12.3 9.5 9.5
2007
I II III IV
18.9 7.1 19.1 39.3
13.9 -47.7 -26.9 12.9
19.1 11.6 24.0 43.4
13.2 7.7 37.6 74.4
12.8 11.9 0.7 9.2
5.9 2.4 -1.7 4.8
2008
I llP
25.2 8.5
8.8 83.4
25.9 5.6
40.2 -5.2
-0.9 0.1
1.3 1.2
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
29.2 20.0 9.3 3.3 15.6 3.3 35.3 5.1 19.5 42.5 46.7 28.8
5.8 53.6 -13.1 -0.3 -3.0 -71.1 117.5 -46.7 -45.9 -85.1 174.0 174.9
30.2 18.5 10.5 3.4 16.5 15.2 31.8 11.1 29.4 80.3 42.0 8.8
34.7 17.0 -6.6 -0.8 11.6 12.7 41.1 9.4 59.0 140.5 81.9 4.9
18.6 14.5 6.9 15.6 8.8 11.3 2.2 3.5 -3.7 7.0 10.4 10.1
8.9 3.7 5.3 3.3 0.1 3.9 9.5 -2.0 -11.1 8.2 3.4 3.2
2008 1 2 3 4 5P 6P
44.4 8.3 24.1 17.9 3.0 5.4
67.8 -54.7 50.6 10.7 -1.5 228.1
43.5 11.8 23 18.5 3.1 -3.5
69.8 23.9 27 6.8 -8.6 -12.6
-1.8 -1.9 0.9 -1.9 -2.1 4.4
1.7 0.4 1.5 4.6 -0.2 -0.8
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
56
August 2008
7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received See graphs 4-2 & 4-3 (current prices, billion won)
Period
2006 2007
Type of order
Type of order
Private
Domestic construction orders received (total)
Public
Private
23,159 25,096
52,148 54,476
91,001 108,559
20,460 27,454
66,550 75,285
Value of construction completed (total)
Public
77,839 82,950
2006
I II III IV
16,044 19,700 19,337 22,758
4,080 5,655 5,927 7,498
11,431 13,419 12,822 14,476
16,377 21,249 23,049 30,327
3,807 4,147 4,159 8,347
12,227 16,801 18,074 19,447
2007
I II III IV
17,306 20,878 20,183 24,582
4,940 6,345 6,103 7,708
11,783 13,723 13,280 15,690
20,678 26,839 21,768 39.274
5,683 5,025 4,462 12,285
14,893 19,649 15,740 25,002
2008
I llP
18,314 22,143
5,279 6,555
12,128 14,297
19,868 25,193
6,820 5,961
12,661 18,499
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5,498 5,307 6,501 6,743 6,810 7,326 6,597 6,759 6,829 7,364 7,882 9,337
1,473 1,533 1,934 1,922 2,119 2,305 1,963 1,953 2,185 2,075 2,432 3,201
3,854 3,602 4,328 4,515 4,462 4,745 4,381 4,542 4,357 4,967 5,094 5,629
6,411 6,326 7,942 7,841 7,096 11,902 6,060 6,586 9,122 10,691 12,311 16,272
1,562 1,830 2,291 1,789 1,621 1,615 1,491 1,354 1,616 3,286 3,694 5,304
4,822 4,488 5,584 5,733 4,891 9,025 3,685 4,874 7,181 7,094 7,792 10,117
2008 1 2 3 4 5P 6P
6,090 5,480 6,745 7,033 7,336 7,774
1,721 1,519 2,040 1,967 2,224 2,364
4,074 3,692 4,362 4,627 4,732 4,938
5,570 5,931 8,367 7,646 8,432 9,115
1,619 1,894 3,306 1,715 2,474 1,772
3,904 3,820 4,937 5,745 5,780 6,973
Y-o-Y change (%) 2006 2007
2.6 6.6
0.6 8.4
4.0 4.5
9.0 19.3
-6.3 34.2
12.8 13.1
2006
I II III IV
2.9 -1.0 3.8 4.8
-13.3 -6.7 7.5 11.1
9.7 1.5 3.0 2.9
-8.5 -14.7 37.1 27.1
-12.4 -29.9 21.2 2.7
-3.9 -6.0 36.8 28.3
2007
I II III IV
7.9 6.0 4.4 8.0
21.1 12.2 3.0 2.8
3.1 2.3 3.6 8.4
26.3 26.3 -5.6 29.5
49.3 21.2 7.3 47.2
21.8 17.0 -12.9 28.6
2008
I llP
5.8 6.1
6.9 3.3
2.9 4.2
-3.9 -6.1
20.0 18.6
-15.0 -5.9
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
12.9 9.1 3.0 7.0 6.2 4.9 13.2 8.6 -6.3 8.8 5.9 9.2
18.1 27.0 19.0 8.4 16.4 11.9 14.9 5.0 -7.3 -4.6 8.8 3.7
11.3 3.1 -3.3 4.0 1.7 1.2 10.6 8.2 -6.5 13.0 2.8 9.8
9.7 40.1 32.0 48.9 5.2 28.8 -14.9 13.4 -9.8 103.8 36.3 1.4
73.4 20.5 65.0 45.5 15.6 6.6 51.1 72.5 -32.3 104.2 32.1 34.6
0.3 55.1 23.4 43.6 -6.8 19.4 -38.8 6.0 -3.7 102.5 27.7 2.8
2008 1 2 3 4 5P 6P
10.8 3.3 3.8 4.3 7.7 6.1
16.8 -1.0 5.5 2.4 5.0 2.6
5.7 2.5 0.8 2.5 6.1 4.1
-13.1 -6.2 5.3 -2.5 18.8 -23.4
3.6 3.5 44.3 -4.1 52.6 9.7
-19.0 -14.9 -11.6 0.2 18.2 -22.7
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
Economic Bulletin
57
8. Composite indexes of business cycle indicators and BSI See graphs 13-1, 13-2 & 13-3
Y-o-Y change (%)
Coincident index (2005=100)
Cycle of coincident index (2005=100)
BSI (actual)
BSI (outlook)
104.1
6.7
104.0
100.3
95.4
102.6
2
104.1
6.3
104.2
100.0
90.5
102.4
3
104.1
5.7
104.7
100.1
111.5
118.9
4
104.2
5.3
104.9
99.9
99.8
112.7
5
104.4
5.0
105.3
99.9
94.1
110.7
6
104.7
4.7
105.6
99.7
94.2
98.6
7
104.8
4.1
105.1
98.8
79.1
94.2
8
105.2
3.9
105.6
98.9
85.9
93.4
9
106.0
4.3
106.5
99.3
99.4
107.7
10
106.9
4.7
108.3
100.6
99.4
103.5
11
107.6
5.0
109.1
100.9
103.7
104.3
12
108.0
4.9
109.3
100.6
100.4
101.4
2007 1
108.5
5.0
109.4
100.3
85.6
96.5
2
109.3
5.4
109.8
100.2
87.5
93.4
3
109.7
5.4
110.2
100.2
109.4
112.3
4
110.5
5.7
110.8
100.3
105.8
107.7
5
110.8
5.6
111.4
100.3
104.1
110.9
6
111.7
6.1
112.2
100.6
100.2
105.6
7
112.5
6.5
113.0
100.9
95.8
99.3
8
113.3
6.8
113.6
101.1
94.4
102.5
9
114.0
6.9
113.7
100.7
101.5
111.8
10
114.8
7.2
114.3
100.8
108.3
116.3
11
115.5
7.3
114.8
100.8
106.0
112.4
12
115.8
7.0
115.8
101.2
98.9
103.4
2008 1
115.1
5.7
116.6
101.5
95.2
103.0
2
114.3
4.3
116.7P
101.2
95.6
94.8
3
113.8
3.2
116.9
100.9
101.1
102.1
4
114.0P
2.8P
116.9P
100.5P
101.7
98.1
5
114.1P
2.3P
117.3P
100.4P
98.1
104.7
6
113.6P
1.2P
117.2P
99.9P
79.1
95.3
7
-
-
-
-
80.8
83.2
8
-
-
-
-
-
80.8
Period
Leading index (2005=100)
2006 1
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office & The Federation of Korean Industries
58
August 2008
9. Balance of payments (I) See graphs 5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 10-1 & 10-2 (million US$)
Period
2004 2005 2006 2007P
Current balance
Goods trade balance
Exports
28,173.5 14,980.9 5,385.2 5,954.3
37,568.8 32,683.1 27,905.1 29,409.4
Imports
Services trade balance
Income trade balance
Current transfers
253,844.7 284,418.7 325,464.8 371,489.1
224,462.7 261,238.3 309,382.6 356,845.7
-8,046.1 -13,658.2 -18,960.7 -20,574.9
1,082.8 -1,562.5 533.7 768.5
-2,432.0 -2,481.5 -4,092.9 -3,648.7
2005
I II III IV
5,263.5 2,352.1 2,198.2 5,167.1
8,750.5 8,365.8 7,234.8 8,332.0
66,807.6 69,702.8 71,097.7 76,810.7
60,626.8 63,694.9 66,228.3 70,688.3
-3,114.4 -3,368.7 -4,254.6 -2,920.5
166.4 -1,948.8 -97.3 317.2
-539.0 -696.2 -684.7 -561.6
2006
I II III IV
-1,977.6 235.0 1,016.9 6,110.9
4,682.7 7,109.8 6,230.9 9,881.7
73,884.9 81,473.4 82,712.8 87,393.7
72,542.1 76,719.7 80,215.8 79,905.1
-5,084.8 -4,200.8 -5,340.1 -4,335.0
-519.6 -1,356.9 1,148.3 1,261.9
-1,055.9 -1,317.1 -1,022.2 -697.7
2007P
I II III IV
-1,662.2 34.4 4,430.2 3,151.9
6,037.9 6,970.2 9,676.2 6,725.1
84,703.5 92,984.5 90,529.1 103,272.0
82,261.7 87,961.9 86,058.8 100,563.3
-6,180.1 -4,395.3 -5,884.1 -4,115.4
-689.6 -1,543.1 1,663.8 1,337.4
-830.4 -997.4 -1,025.7 -795.2
2008P
I II
-5,212.6 -134.4
-1,219.8 5,722.7
993,966.6 114,536.0
105,693.4 114,410.3
-5,067.2 -4,272.7
1,688.1 -645.6
-613.7 -938.8
2006
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-273.5 -1,217.8 -486.3 -1,978.8 782.8 1,431.0 -226.2 -734.2 1,977.3 1,776.0 4,270.7 64.2
1,143.9 681.3 2,857.5 1,639.0 2,240.9 3,229.9 1,553.5 1,330.3 3,347.1 2,627.4 5,550.9 1,703.4
23,257.9 23,787.0 26,840.1 25,590.1 27,934.5 27,948.8 25,774.4 27,287.2 29,651.2 28,015.9 30,602.3 28,775.4
23,089.3 23,507.8 25,945.0 24,485.8 26,210.4 26,023.5 25,549.7 27,029.5 27,636.6 25,621.8 26,765.1 27,518.2
-1,797.8 -1,849.4 -1,437.6 -1,537.7 -1,340.5 -1,322.6 -1,716.2 -2,141.4 -1,482.5 -1,139.2 -1,457.0 -1,738.8
613.2 326.9 -1,459.7 -1,700.5 301.9 41.7 237.5 296.4 614.4 500.1 448.2 313.6
-232.8 -376.6 -446.5 -379.6 -419.5 -518.0 -301.0 -219.5 -501.7 -212.3 -271.4 -214.0
2007P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-428.1 402.1 -1,636.2 -2,078.1 839.1 1,273.4 1,552.3 573.7 2,304.2 2,461.1 1,504.6 -813.8
1,292.1 2,387.3 2,358.5 1,519.5 2,239.0 3,211.7 3,044.1 2,906.4 3,725.7 3,638.0 2,643.7 443.4
28,092.6 26,225.1 30,385.8 29,944.4 31,039.9 32,000.1 30,207.4 30,998.1 29,323.5 34,433.8 35,807.9 33,030.3
27,560.1 25,406.2 29,295.5 29,596.9 29,856.9 28,508.1 29,223.2 29,642.1 27,193.6 32,741.2 33,926.1 33,895.9
-1,943.4 -2,551.1 -1,685.6 -1,396.1 -1,483.2 -1,516.0 -1,688.2 -2,445.2 -1,750.7 -1,416.5 -1,458.9 -1,240.0
547.1 850.7 -2,087.4 -2,001.5 461.6 -3.2 533.5 444.3 686.0 502.9 422.8 411.7
-323.9 -284.8 -221.7 -200.0 -378.3 -419.1 -337.1 -331.8 -356.8 -263.3 -103.0 -428.9
2008P 1 2 3 4 5 6
-2,751.3 -2,350.7 -110.6 -1,581.3 -377.5 1824.4
-1,095.2 -599.1 474.5 1,632.3 612.5 3477.9
32,260.5 31,145.9 35,990.1 37,837.9 39,375.0 37,323.2
36,192.8 32,496.2 37,004.5 38,162.3 38,492.1 37,755.9
-2,138.1 -2,249.6 -679.5 -979.8 -1,167.4 -2,126.3
768.0 700.7 219.4 -1,932.0 459.2 827.2
-286.0 -202.7 -125.0 -302.6 -281.8 -354.4
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea & Korea Customs Service
Economic Bulletin
59
10. Balance of payments (II) See graph 10-3 (million US$)
Period
Capital & financial account
Direct investment
2004 2005 2006 2007P
7,598.8 4,756.5 17,972.0 6,232.3
Changes in reserve assets
Errors and omissions
Portfolio investment
Other investment
Capital transfers & acquisition of non-financial assets
4,588.3 2,010.4 -4,540.4 -13,696.7
8,619.3 -1,728.2 -22,745.6 -19,093.3
-3,856.0 6,814.7 48,384.1 41,411.9
-1,752.8 -2,340.4 -3,126.1 -2,389.6
-38,710.5 -19,805.8 -22,112.9 -15,128.2
2,938.2 68.4 -1,244.3 2,941.6
2005
I II III IV
4,141.5 2,257.6 -504.3 -1,138.3
-194.0 1,249.7 48.8 905.9
-1,278.2 -2,575.3 -147.5 2,272.8
6,125.5 4,247.5 256.8 -3,815.1
-511.8 -664.3 -662.4 -501.9
-9,513.7 -2,817.2 -2,300.1 -5,174.8
108.7 -1,792.5 606.2 1,146.0
2006
I II III IV
6,824.8 3,319.1 3,754.1 4,074.0
-1,062.3 -30.9 -3,856.2 409.0
1,847.1 -14,079.6 -7,703.3 -2,809.8
6,787.0 18,255.2 15,978.3 7,363.6
-747.0 -825.6 -664.7 -888.8
-5,679.3 -4,315.9 -3,688.8 -8,428.9
832.1 761.8 -1,082.2 -1,756.0
2007P I II III IV
5,313.6 6,442.1 -3,326.5 -2,196.9
-959.8 -2,867.7 -2,445.6 -7,423.6
-10,492.9 -27.2 -9,169.6 596.4
17,580.4 10,023.0 8,858.8 4,949.7
-814.1 -686.0 -570.1 -319.4
-3,998.3 -6,250.1 -2,495.6 -2,384.2
346.9 -226.4 1,391.9 1,429.2
2008P I ll
395.9 -5,629.2
-4,790.6 -2,913.5
-11,065.6 5,191.4
16,489.7 -7,674.1
-237.6 -233.0
3,850.0 5,717.7
966.7 45.9
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
4,082.2 1,594.0 1,148.6 4,639.6 391.0 -1,711.5 1,767.1 1,410.5 576.5 -940.2 -524.0 5,538.2
-504.9 137.3 -694.7 328.5 -105.2 -254.2 -174.9 -671.6 -3,009.7 -131.6 -38.9 579.5
692.7 2,404.0 -1,249.6 -3,099.7 -7,937.6 -3,042.3 -3,899.6 -4,470.4 666.7 -678.3 -827.2 -1,304.3
4,124.2 -695.4 3,358.2 7,714.2 8,680.4 1,860.6 6,123.2 6,719.8 3,135.3 137.1 671.9 6,554.6
-229.8 -251.9 -265.3 -303.4 -246.6 -275.6 -281.6 -167.3 -215.8 -267.4 -329.8 -291.6
-5,432.6 140.7 -387.4 -3,354.8 -495.6 -465.5 -686.0 -959.7 -2,043.1 -933.1 -2,677.2 -4,818.6
1,623.9 -516.9 -274.9 694.0 -678.2 746.0 -854.9 283.4 -510.7 97.3 -1,069.5 -783.8
2007P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2,078.9 -404.0 3,638.7 4,203.3 3,597.1 -1,358.3 537.1 -304.8 -3,558.8 -1,912.9 -1,498.6 1,214.6
-208.9 -687.6 -63.3 -388.2 -311.3 -2,168.2 -3.0 -1,372.5 -1,070.1 -4,439.9 -1,726.1 -1,257.6
-1,411.2 -1,940.7 -7,141.0 3,808.0 529.6 -4,364.8 -6,925.0 -5,973.7 3,729.1 154.3 -2,901.5 3,343.6
4,054.0 2,427.6 11,098.8 1,029.3 3,613.2 5,380.5 7,692.6 7,248.3 -6,082.1 2,538.1 3,202.6 -791.0
-355.0 -203.3 -255.8 -245.8 -234.4 -205.8 -227.5 -206.9 -135.7 -165.4 -73.6 -80.4
-2,350.7 -1,134.7 -512.9 -1,878.4 -4,492.9 121.2 -2,421.6 -937.5 863.5 -847.5 -493.8 -1,042.9
699.9 1,136.6 -1,489.6 -246.8 56.7 -36.3 332.2 668.6 391.1 299.3 487.8 642.1
2008P 1 2 3 4 5 6
409.2 -401.3 388.0 -386.9 -1,250.4 -3,991.9
-2,488.7 303.5 -2,605.4 -1,911.9 -262.6 -739.0
-4,011.1 -5,426.4 -1,628.1 3,571.7 7,343.4 -5,723.7
7,013.3 4,819.9 4,656.5 1,958.9 -8,276.5 2,561.3
-104.3 -98.3 -35.0 -87.8 -54.7 -90.5
1,436.1 1,703.1 710.8 2,411.3 2,264.6 1,041.8
906.0 1,048.9 -988.2 -443.1 -636.7 1,125.7
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
60
August 2008
11. Prices See graphs 11-1, 11-2 & 11-3 (2005 = 100) Producer prices (2000=100)
Consumer prices
Export & import prices
Period All Items
Commodity
Service
Core
All items
Commodity
Export
Import
2006 2007
102.2 104.8
101.5 103.5
102.7 105.7
101.8 104.2
100.9 102.3
100.5 101.5
91.8 89.8
100.9 105.5
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
101.1 101.3 101.9 102.0 102.2 102.0 102.4 103.0 103.3 102.8 102.3 102.6
101.1 101.1 101.1 101.3 101.6 101.0 101.5 103.0 103.1 101.8 100.7 101.2
101.1 101.4 102.3 102.5 102.6 102.7 103.0 103.1 103.4 103.4 103.4 103.6
100.6 100.8 101.4 101.5 101.9 101.9 102.1 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.3 102.5
100.5 100.5 100.4 100.6 100.9 100.8 101.1 101.7 102.1 101.1 100.6 100.5
100.1 100.2 100.0 100.1 100.5 100.3 100.7 101.5 101.9 100.6 99.8 99.7
93.9 92.0 92.0 90.9 90.7 92.0 92.0 93.8 93.2 92.1 89.9 89.1
99.1 98.0 98.4 99.8 101.6 102.6 104.0 105.9 102.2 100.9 99.3 99.4
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
102.8 103.5 104.1 104.5 104.6 104.6 105.0 105.1 105.7 105.9 105.9 106.3
101.4 102.3 102.3 102.8 102.8 102.7 103.3 103.5 104.7 105.1 104.9 105.6
103.8 104.2 105.2 105.5 105.7 105.8 106.0 106.1 106.3 106.4 106.6 106.7
102.7 103.1 103.8 104.1 104.1 104.2 104.4 104.5 104.6 104.7 104.8 105.0
100.5 100.6 101.0 101.7 102.3 102.5 102.7 102.6 103.1 103.3 103.7 104.1
99.6 99.6 100.2 100.9 101.6 101.7 101.7 101.7 102.3 102.4 103.1 103.7
88.6 88.1 88.9 89.2 89.3 89.5 89.6 90.6 90.8 89.8 91.5 92.0
97.7 99.5 102.7 104.0 104.5 104.2 104.1 105.1 107.6 108.6 113.0 114.9
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
106.8 107.2 108.2 108.8 109.7 110.4 111.2
106.3 106.6 107.1 108.2 110.0 111.5 112.9
107.1 107.5 108.9 109.2 109.5 109.7 110.1
105.6 106.0 107.2 107.7 108.2 108.7 109.2
104.7 105.7 107.1 109.4 111.5 113.3 115.5
104.4 105.7 107.5 110.3 113.1 115.5 118.1
93.7 94.8 100.8 103.3 110.7 112.0 112.1
118.4 121.6 131.5 136.5 151.1 155.2 156.8
Y-o-Y change (%) 2006 2007
2.2 2.5
1.5 2.0
2.7 2.9
1.8 2.4
0.9 1.4
0.5 1.0
-8.2 -2.1
0.9 4.5
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.1
2.5 1.6 1.2 1.0 1.8 2.0 1.7 2.7 1.6 0.7 1.0 0.8
2.0 2.3 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.9
1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1
0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.6 0.4 0.2 0.3
0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.5 0.8 1.4 1.1 1.6 1.5 -0.1 -0.4 0.0
-9.8 -10.6 -9.3 -9.8 -7.2 -6.2 -8.3 -5.4 -6.9 -8.6 -8.5 -7.5
2.2 1.2 -0.0 0.2 4.4 3.8 2.5 3.4 -1.6 -2.3 -1.7 -0.6
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1.7 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.3 3.0 3.5 3.6
0.3 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.8 0.5 1.6 3.2 4.2 4.3
2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.0
2.1 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4
0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.6 0.9 1.0 2.2 3.1 3.6
-0.5 -0.6 0.2 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.4 1.8 3.3 4.0
-5.7 -4.2 -3.3 -1.8 -1.4 -2.8 -2.6 -3.4 -2.6 -2.5 1.8 3.4
-1.4 1.6 4.4 4.2 2.8 1.6 0.1 -0.7 5.2 7.5 13.7 15.6
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
3.9 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.9 5.5 5.9
4.8 4.2 4.7 5.3 7.0 8.6 9.3
3.2 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9
2.8 2.8 3.3 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.6
4.2 5.1 6.1 7.6 9.0 10.5 12.5
4.8 6.1 7.3 9.3 11.3 13.6 16.1
5.8 7.6 13.4 15.7 24.0 25.2 25.1
21.2 22.2 28.0 31.3 44.6 49.0 50.6
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
61
12. Employment and earnings See graphs 8-1, 8-2 & 8-3
Economically active persons (thous.) Period
Employed persons (thous.)
Unemployment (%)
All industry earnings (won) (base year=2000) Manufacturing
All industry Manufacturing S.O.C&service 2006 2007
23,978 24,216
23,151 23,433
4,167 4,119
17,181 17,569
3.5 3.2
2,666,550 2,823,220
2,594,830 2,772,786
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
23,340 23,365 23,769 24,088 24,267 24,320 24,270 23,972 24,096 24,253 24,225 23,773
22,471 22,412 22,848 23,242 23,484 23,501 23,447 23,164 23,330 23,463 23,458 22,989
4,201 4,184 4,179 4,188 4,170 4,184 4,180 4,114 4.135 4,183 4,137 4,153
16,893 16,763 16,986 17,186 17,293 17,294 17,303 17,099 17,248 17,294 17,467 17,348
3.7 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.3
2,865,004 2,451,498 2,481,580 2,504,830 2,356,038 2,685,520 2,646,200 2,607,031 2,796,266 2,690,402 2,409,143 3,502,448
2,803,400 2,376,782 2,322,720 2,424,268 2,201,426 2,580,407 2,596,198 2,531,654 2,648,830 2,681,556 2,226,062 3,745,800
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
23,580 23,536 23,960 24,337 24,537 24,593 24,545 24,214 24,341 24,482 24,471 23,993
22,729 22,674 23,121 23,520 23,758 23,816 23,750 23,458 23,622 23,750 23,739 23,257
4,156 4,139 4,119 4,124 4,114 4,140 4,126 4,052 4,101 4,142 4,092 4,127
17,221 17,114 17,371 17,573 17,677 17,715 17,740 17,524 17,639 17,689 17,856 17,712
3.6 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1
2,627,540 3,013,449 2,641,959 2,643,764 2,485,058 2,817,804 2,829,211 2,769,911 3,114,931 2,683,992 2,546,228 3,706,293
2,425,973 3,056,645 2,471,807 2,607,695 2,336,692 2,748,589 2,855,274 2,762,758 2,979,084 2,672,783 2,363,575 3,998,473
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
23,738 23,703 24,114 24,495 24,692 24,727 24,673
22,964 22,884 23,305 23,711 23,939 23,963 23,903
4,125 4,136 4,100 4,099 4,097 4,107 4,097
17,549 17,409 17,630 17,829 17,931 17,947 17,958
3.3 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1
-
-
Y-o-Y change (%) 2006 2007
1.0 1.0
1.3 1.2
-1.6 -1.1
2.3 2.3
-
5.6 5.9
5.6 6.8
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1.2 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1
1.8 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.3
-1.2 -1.7 -2.2 -1.9 -1.9 -1.6 -1.2 -1.3 -1.6 -1.4 -1.4 -1.6
3.0 2.5 2.5 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.0
-
20.3 -7.7 5.5 5.3 7.9 4.1 6.0 5.9 1.3 11.5 5.6 4.6
24.1 -11.8 5.7 4.1 8.1 3.4 5.9 5.3 -0.2 13.1 6.1 6.9
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1.0 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.9
1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2
-1.1 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.3 -1.0 -1.3 -1.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 0.6
1.9 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1
-
-8.3 22.9 6.5 5.5 5.5 4.9 6.9 6.2 11.4 -0.2 5.7 5.8
-13.5 28.6 6.4 7.6 6.1 6.5 10.0 9.1 12.5 -0.3 6.2 6.7
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5
1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6
-0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.4 -0.8 -0.7
1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2
-
-
Source: Korea National Statistical Office
62
August 2008
-
13. Financial indicators See graphs 9-1 & 9-4 (period average) Yields (%)
Stock
Period Call rate (1 day)
CD (91 days)
Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)
Treasury bonds (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
KOSPI (end-period)
2005 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.7
3.5 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0
4.1 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.8 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.5
3.7 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.1
3.9 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.4 4.7 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.3
932.70 1,011.40 965.70 911.30 970.20 1,008.20 1,111.30 1,083.30 1,221.00 1,158.10 1,297.40 1,379.40
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.8
5.5 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.2
5.0 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.8
5.3 5.0 5.1 5.2 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.9
1,399.80 1,371.60 1,359.60 1,419.70 1,371.70 1,295.70 1,297.80 1,352.70 1,371.40 1,364.60 1,432.20 1,434.50
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.7
5.3 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.7
5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.9
5.0 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.9
1,360.20 1,417.30 1,452.60 1,542.24 1,700.91 1,743.60 1,933.27 1,873.24 1,946.48 2,064.95 1,906.00 1,897.10
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
5.8 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5
6.6 6.3 6.1 5.9 6.2 6.7 7.0
5.4 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.0
5.5 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.0
1,624.68 1,711.62 1703.99 1,825.47 1,852.02 1,674.92 -
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
63
14. Monetary indicators See graph 9-5 (period average)
Period
(billion won)
Reserve money
M1
M2
Lf
2006 2007
41,664.0 48,543.7
330,134.1 312,832.3
1,076,682.4 1,197,094.8
1,454,858.8 1,603,516.0
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
41,336.0 41,655.5 40,991.9 41,190.0 40,734.4 40,715.1 41,973.7 40,287.2 41,500.4 43,199.9 41,507.4 44,876.4
327,542.1 326,548.3 325,711.9 324,222.6 323,908.4 326,949.2 330,267.7 325,958.2 327,648.4 333,597.5 337,666.0 351,588.5
1,027,697.4 1,034,711.9 1,042,293.6 1,048,598.6 1,055,855.4 1,072,886.5 1,082,577.5 1,084,752.6 1,098,444.2 1,110,360.9 1,123,714.6 1,138,295.5
1,398,707.3 1,407,971.3 1,413,306.8 1,421,447.5 1,430,748.5 1,445,440.3 1,460,729.4 1,468,210.0 1,479,577.9 1,494,767.6 1,510,883.0 1,526,516.2
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
47,851.4 49,493.5 48,936.8 47,485.3 48,092.5 47,914.3 47,500.5 47,823.9 48,870.6 49,370.6 48,831.0 50,353.8
353,494.2 350,734.7 335,446.8 305,602.5 301,184.5 302,511.7 302,375.6 298,066.1 299,048.0 297,999.3 299,714.7 307,809.3
1,143,814.9 1,154,108.8 1,162,429.3 1,165,291.0 1,171,148.4 1,190,080.2 1,200,892.7 1,208,052.8 1,219,265.1 1,229,742.1 1,250,790.1 1,269,522.5
1,536,010.8 1,547,512.8 1,557,701.9 1,564,339.3 1,575,635.4 1,596,407.1 1,606,424.5 1,618,788.3 1,631,969.6 1,649,987.5 1,668,328.3 1,686,063.4
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6
50,260.5 52,563.7 49,571.5 50,683.6 50,502.5 50,817.0
305,868.0 304,580.7 299,792.8 298,474.4 304,239.8 305,514.3 Y-o-Y change (%) -0.8 -5.2
1,286,407.8 1,309,161.7 1,324,032.7 1,339,434.9 1,356,612.9 1,369,728.1
1,711,196.8 1,726,407.2 1,743,481.7 1,762,945.3 1,782,721.1 1,798,379.5
8.3 11.2
7.9 10.2
2006 2007
7.4 16.5
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
9.0 5.0 7.8 8.6 7.5 7.6 10.2 4.3 4.1 8.7 5.2 11.3
1.7 -0.8 -2.7 -3.0 -2.3 -3.0 -4.7 -6.1 -5.6 -1.9 10.0 10.4
7.3 7.2 6.6 6.8 7.1 7.7 7.7 7.5 9.0 10.1 11.1 11.4
7.2 7.4 7.0 7.4 7.6 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.9 8.7 9.4 9.6
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
15.8 18.8 19.4 15.3 18.1 17.7 13.2 18.7 17.8 14.3 17.6 12.2
7.9 7.4 3.0 -5.7 -7.0 -7.5 -8.4 -8.6 -8.7 -10.7 -11.2 -12.5
11.3 11.5 11.5 11.1 10.9 10.9 10.9 11.4 11.0 10.8 11.3 11.5
9.8 9.9 10.2 10.1 10.1 10.4 10.0 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.6
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6
5.0 6.2 1.3 6.7 5.0 6.1
-13.5 -13.2 -10.6 -2.3 1.0 1.0
12.5 13.4 13.9 14.9 15.8 15.1
11.4 11.6 11.9 12.7 13.1 12.7
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
64
August 2008
15. Exchange rates See graphs 9-2 & 9-3
₩ /US$
₩ /100￥
₩ /Euro
Period End-period
Average
End-period
Average
End-period
Average
2006 2007
929.6 938.2
955.5 929.2
781.8 833.3
821.5 789.8
1,222.2 1381.3
1,199.3 1272.7
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
971.0 969.0 975.9 945.7 947.4 960.3 953.1 959.6 945.2 944.2 929.9 929.6
987.0 970.2 975.1 954.4 941.4 955.2 950.2 960.7 953.7 954.2 936.2 925.8
824.9 833.8 831.7 828.3 842.2 834.0 830.2 820.3 802.2 803.5 799.0 781.8
854.3 822.4 831.3 814.8 843.0 833.0 821.4 829.7 814.3 803.2 798.0 790.2
1,173.8 1,147.9 1,187.1 1,184.9 1,208.0 1,215.9 1,216.4 1,232.3 1,200.6 1,200.8 1,223.0 1,222.2
1,194.8 1,159.7 1,172.8 1,169.9 1,201.7 1,208.7 1,206.2 1,230.6 1,214.9 1,202.4 1,205.3 1,222.8
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
940.9 938.3 940.3 929.4 929.9 926.8 923.2 939.9 920.7 907.4 929.6 938.2
936.4 937.0 943.3 931.5 927.9 928.3 918.9 933.8 932.4 915.9 917.0 930.2
773.1 793.9 797.0 778.3 764.8 752.4 774.6 809.9 796.7 791.1 846.5 833.3
777.9 776.8 804.8 783.7 768.5 757.1 755.6 799.8 810.6 790.7 826.2 828.4
1,220.1 1,241.9 1,253.9 1,266.9 1,249.0 1,246.0 1,266.9 1,282.3 1,302.9 1,309.9 1,371.8 1,381.3
1,217.0 1,225.1 1,249.4 1,257.7 1,254.1 1,244.9 1,260.0 1,272.4 1,291.2 1,303.3 1,345.6 1,355.2
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
943.9 937.3 991.7 999.7 1,031.4 1,043.4 1,008.5
942.4 944.7 979.9 986.7 1,036.7 1,029.3 1,019.1
889.1 889.7 1,000.2 961.8 977.0 981.8 932.9
872.9 880.6 972.3 962.4 994.2 963.0 954.2
1402.3 1423.5 1,565.0 1,556.2 1,599.6 1,647.1 1,571.0
1,386.2 1,395.4 1,519.5 1,555.1 1,614.6 1,601.7 1,606.4
Y-o-Y change (%) 2006 2007
-8.2 0.9
-6.7 -2.8
-9.1 6.6
-11.7 -3.9
1.9 -13.0
-5.9 6.1
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-5.4 -3.9 -4.7 -5.7 -5.5 -6.3 -7.3 -6.9 -8.9 -9.5 -10.3 -8.2
-4.9 -5.1 -3.2 -5.6 -6.1 -5.5 -8.4 -5.9 -7.4 -8.8 -10.1 -9.6
-16.7 -12.9 -12.7 -12.3 -9.3 -10.1 -9.3 -11.4 -12.4 -10.8 -7.7 -9.1
-15.1 -15.6 -13.2 -13.6 -10.3 -10.4 -11.4 -10.0 -12.2 -11.8 -9.3 -8.5
-12.2 -14.0 -10.3 -8.4 -3.5 -1.8 -2.5 -2.1 -3.8 -4.5 0.3 1.9
-12.4 -13.1 -11.7 -10.6 -5.5 -1.7 -3.5 -1.9 -3.7 -4.4 -1.9 0.7
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-3.1 -3.2 -3.7 -1.7 -1.9 -3.5 -3.1 -2.1 -2.6 -3.9 -0.0 0.9
-5.1 -3.4 -3.3 -2.4 -1.4 -2.8 -3.3 -2.8 -2.2 -4.0 -2.1 0.5
-6.3 -4.8 -4.2 -6.0 -9.2 -9.8 -6.7 -1.3 -0.7 -1.5 5.9 6.6
-8.9 -5.5 -3.2 -3.8 -8.8 -9.1 -8.0 -3.6 -0.5 -1.5 3.5 4.8
3.9 8.2 5.6 6.9 3.4 2.5 4.2 4.1 8.5 9.1 12.2 13.0
1.9 5.6 6.5 7.5 4.4 3.0 4.5 3.4 6.3 8.4 11.6 10.8
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0.3 -0.1 5.5 7.6 10.9 12.6 9.2
0.6 0.8 3.9 5.9 11.7 10.9 10.9
15.0 12.1 25.5 23.6 27.8 30.5 20.4
12.2 13.4 20.8 22.8 29.4 27.2 26.3
14.9 14.6 24.8 22.8 28.1 32.2 24.0
13.9 13.9 21.6 23.6 28.7 28.7 27.5
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
65
Editor-in-Chief Kim, Kyu-Ok (MOSF) Editorial Board Kim, Dong-Yule (KDI) Lee, In-Sook (KDI) Coordinators Oh, Hae-Young (MOSF) Kang, Ji-Eun (KDI) Editors Kim, Sun-Young (MOSF) Park, Jai-En (KDI)
Useful Internet Websites Economy-related Websites Recommended
Ministry of Strategy and Finance http://english.mofe.go.kr Ministry of Knowledge Economy http://www.mke.go.kr/language/eng Financial Supervisory Commission/Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr/fsseng/index.jsp Fair Trade Commission http://www.ftc.go.kr/eng Ministry of Labor http://english.molab.go.kr/english Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr Korea National Statistical Office http://www.nso.go.kr/eng2006/emain/index.html