Vol. 30 | No. 10
Republic of Korea
Economic Bulletin Special
3
Proposed measures to overcome uncertainties in the international financial markets
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends Overview
5
1. Global economy
6
2. Private consumption
10
3. Facility investment
14
4. Construction investment
16
5. Exports and imports
18
6. Mining and manufacturing production
20
7. Service sector activity
22
8. Employment
24
9. Financial markets
26
9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4
Stock market Exchange rate Bond market Money supply & money market
10. Balance of payments
30
11. Prices and international commodity prices
32
11.1 Prices 11.2 International oil and commodity prices 12. Real estate market
36
12.1 Housing market 12.2 Land market 13. Composite indexes of business cycle indicators
Policy Issues
40
42
Service PROGRESS II -The 2nd phase of the plan for advancing the service industry-
Economic News Briefing
47
Statistical Appendices
51
special
Proposed Measures to Overcome Uncertainties in the International Financial Markets
I. Current situation Lehman’s bankruptcy filing (September 14) sparked a chain reaction that sent global credit markets into disarray. Concerns have been spread around the world that looming credit crunch and slowdown of the real economy may be protracted. Finding a solution out of the global credit crunch and economic uncertainties of the global economy will take quite some time. Consequently, the governments of major economies have made efforts to coordinate their policy responses to the crisis and have introduced unprecedented and strong market stabilization measures. Despite the recent credit crisis, Korea’s real economy and its financial sector are sound. Exports show a steady growth and conditions of the banking sector remain healthy. By various international standards, Korea’s foreign exchange reserves are sufficient.
II. Proposed policy responses As other major economies start providing guarantees to inter-bank loans, the Korean government will take similar measures to avoid placing domestic banks at a comparative disadvantage in terms of overseas funding and to allay fears in the financial market. The government will pursue market stabilization policies in a preemptive, decisive and sufficient manner to minimize the total cost of implementing the proposed measures. 1. The Korean government will provide guarantees to Korean banks’ external debt after securing approval of the National Assembly. When Korean banks or its overseas branches take upon external debt from October 20 this year to June 30, 2009, the government will offer guarantees to the debt for 3 years. Initially, Korea Development
Economic Bulletin
3
special
Bank (KDB) or Korea Eximbank will provide guarantees starting from October 20 until the government wins approval of the National Assembly. After securing the approval, the government will take over the task of providing guarantees, including those already offered by KDB or Korea Eximbank. * The total value of guarantees will be capped at US$100 billion. Domestic banks’ external debt reaching maturity until the end of June 2009 is estimated to be around US$80 billion.
2. The government and the Bank of Korea (BOK) will further provide additional dollar liquidity, amounting to US$30 billion, to the banking sector by utilizing foreign exchange reserves. 3. The BOK will provide adequate Korean won liquidity into domestic financial markets by purchase of RPs and government bonds, and early redemption of monetary stabilization bonds. These measures will help soothe uncertainty of the financial market. 4. The authorities will make efforts to maintain stability in the foreign exchange market through the smoothing operation to avoid extreme volatilities. 5. The government will provide tax incentives for long-term holdings of funds. This will help strengthen stability of the stock market and asset management companies. 6. At the moment, it seems that recapitalization of financial institutions or expansion of deposit guarantees is not necessary. However, should the need arise to pursue such measures, the government will take proper actions. 7. As part of an effort to boost international cooperation, the Korean government will not only promote multinational collaboration among G-20 countries but also reinforce the regional ties centering on Korea, China and Japan. More specifically, the Korean government will make efforts to expand bilateral currency swap schemes to G-20 countries and to finalize detailed plans to multilateralize the Chiang Mai Initiative by the end of 2009. 8. The government will make an investment in kind, equivalent to 1 trillion won, expanding the capital base of the Industrial Bank of Korea (IBK). The expanded capital base is likely to translate into additional loan facility worth 12 trillion won available to small and mid-sized companies. Finally, the government will make efforts to have the tax cut package and the draft budget package pass the National Assembly and minimize the impact of the turmoil of the international financial market on Korea’s real economy.
October 19, 2008 Minister of Strategy and Finance Chairman of Financial Services Commission Governor of Bank of Korea
4
October 2008
The Green Book Current Economic Trends
Overview Despite continued export gains and mitigated inflationary pressures, the Korean economy has seen domestic demand deteriorating and downside risks to growth rising due to global financial instability. Mining and manufacturing production grew 1.9 percent year-on-year in August, further decelerating from the previous month’s 8.6 percent, as the export growth was down to 18.7 percent in August from 35.7 percent in July and the number of working days decreased 1.5 days. August consumer goods sales have been on a downward trajectory, as their year-on-year growth posted 1.5 percent, down from 3.9 percent last month as a result of a drop in durable goods sales. Growth in facility investment (estimated) has sharply decelerated to 1.6 percent in August from 9.9 percent a month earlier, as increased investments in machinery were offset by decreased investments in transportation equipment such as automobiles and airplanes. The total number of workers hired rose a mere 159,000 year-on-year in August, signifying a continued deterioration in the Korean job market. In August, the leading composite index fell for the ninth consecutive month on a year-onyear basis, while the cyclical indicator of coincident composite index went down for the seventh straight month. September exports jumped 28.7 percent year-on-year, as brisk exports to emerging markets and resource-rich nations have continued. In August, Korea’s current account deficit posted US$4.71 billion, up from US$570 million a year earlier, as a surge in commodity imports including crude oil overshadowed a decline in the service account deficit. Consumer prices in September grew at a slower pace for the second consecutive month and posted year-on-year growth of 5.1 percent, as a fall in global oil prices led to a decline in petroleum prices including gasoline and diesel. To sum up, there have been concerns over the negative effects of the global financial turbulence and the global economic downturn on the Korean economy in a situation where weak demand has continued. Against this backdrop, the government should take decisive and pre-emptive measures to stabilize the financial market and ward off the global financial turmoil threatening to hurt the real economy, while continuous efforts should be made to stabilize the lives of the ordinary people and tame inflation, as well as to create jobs and boost growth potential.
Economic Bulletin
5
1. Global economy Downside risks to the global economy, especially to the developed countries, are becoming more apparent as the US credit crisis has spread to infect major financial markets. The recent fall in oil and raw material prices has mitigated inflationary pressures, while developing countries including China have continued strong growth.
US
The US economy has seen its financial market turmoil continuing and its real economy deteriorating further, although the rescue package was approved by the US Congress following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Its economic growth for the second quarter of 2008 has been revised downwards from 3.3 percent (estimated) to 2.8 percent (confirmed). The number of non-farm payroll employees has fallen for eight straight months and the rate of unemployment and the number of unemployed workers applying for unemployment benefits have went up, as companies held back from hiring new employees and laid off more workers. The rate of unemployment in August posted 6.1 percent, the highest since September 2003. Retail sales have dropped, as consumer purchasing power and consumer sentiment have weakened due to a continued deterioration in the job market and the fall in asset values. The housing market is expected to be in the doldrums for a while because the recent instability of the housing market, including the decline in new home sales and the increase in home inventory, has not been addressed. Case-Shiller home price index (m-o-m, %) -2.1 (Mar 2008)
-1.3 (Apr)
-0.8 (May)
-0.5 (Jun)
-0.9 (Jul)
The rise in consumer prices has been slightly eased, but inflationary pressures have remained persistent. (Percentage change from previous period) 2007
2006 Annual Real GDP
Annual
2008
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Jun
Jul
Aug
2.8
2.0
4.8
-0.2
0.9
2.8
-
-
-
- Personal consumption expenditure
3.0
2.8
2.0
1.0
0.9
1.2
-
-
-
- Corporate fixed investment
7.5
4.9
8.7
3.4
2.4
2.5
-
-
-
- Construction investment for housing
-7.1
-17.9
-20.6
-27.0
-25.1
-13.3
-
-
-
Industrial production
2.2
1.7
3.6
0.3
0.4
-3.1
0.2
0.1
-1.1
Retail sales
5.8
4.0
0.6
0.9
0.2
0.9
0.1
-0.5
-0.3
New non-farm payroll employment (q-o-q, thousand)
2,099
1,096
212
241
-247
-214
-100
-60
-84
New home sales
-18.1
-26.2
-14.3
-10.9
-13.8
-7.4
-2.9
4.0
-11.5
3.2
2.9
2.4
4.0
4.1
4.4
5.0
5.6
5.4
1
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) 1. Annualized rate (%)
6
October 2008
1-1
US GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate) Source: US Department of Commerce
1-2
US non-farm payroll employment (m-o-m change) Source: US Department of Labor
1-3
US federal funds rate and consumer prices Source: US Federal Reserve Board & Department of Labor
Economic Bulletin
7
China
The Chinese economy has seen industrial production slowing down due to moderated growth in exports. Consumer prices, especially food prices, have stabilized. On September 15, to cope with growing financial market instability and a possible economic slowdown, the People’s Bank of China cut its key lending rate by 0.27 percentage points to 7.20 percent, and the reserve requirement ratio for commercial banks by one percentage point to 16.5 per cent. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
2007
2008
Annual
Annual
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Jun
Jul
Aug
Real GDP
10.7
11.9
11.5
11.2
10.6
10.1
-
-
-
Fixed asset investment (accumulated)
24.5
25.8
26.4
25.8
25.9
27.1
26.8
27.3
27.4
Retail sales
13.7
16.8
16.8
19.0
20.6
22.2
23.0
23.3
23.2
Industrial production
16.6
18.5
18.1
17.5
16.4
15.9
16.0
14.7
12.8
Exports
27.2
25.7
26.2
25.7
21.4
22.4
17.6
26.9
21.1
Consumer prices
1.5
4.8
6.1
6.6
8.0
7.8
7.1
6.3
4.9
Producer prices
3.0
3.1
2.6
4.4
6.9
8.3
8.8
10.0
10.1
Japan
The Japanese economy saw its export gains sharply fall, while its production and consumption still remained weak. Export growth by destination (Jul → Aug, y-o-y, %) US (-11.4
-21.8), eurozone (4.1
-3.5), Asia (12.7
6.7) (Percentage change from previous period)
2006
2007
2008
Annual
Annual
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Jun
Jul
Aug
Real GDP
2.5
1.6
0.2
0.6
0.7
-0.7
-
-
-
Industrial and mining production
4.5
2.8
1.7
0.9
-0.7
-0.7
-0.2
1.3
-3.5
Retail sales (y-o-y, %)
0.1
-0.1
-0.5
0.8
1.8
0.2
0.3
2.0
0.7
Exports (y-o-y, %)
14.6
11.5
10.7
10.0
6.0
1.8
-1.8
8.0
0.3
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %)
0.3
0.0
-0.2
0.5
0.9
1.4
2.0
2.3
2.1
Eurozone
The eurozone economy has faced an economic recession due to sluggish exports and weak demand, amid a deepening credit squeeze in Europe in the wake of the financial turmoil in the US. On September 4, the European Central Bank (ECB) revised its 2008 growth projections down to 1.4 percent from 1.8 percent, but left its benchmark interest rate at 4.25 percent in fear of inflation surges. (Percentage change from previous period) 2006 Annual
2007 Annual
Q3
2008 Q4
Q1
Q2
Jun
Jul
Aug
Real GDP
2.8
2.7
0.6
0.4
0.7
-0.2
-
-
-
Industrial production
4.0
3.4
1.4
-0.1
0.4
-0.6
-0.1
-0.4
-
Retail sales
1.6
1.0
0.5
-0.9
-0.2
-0.9
-0.8
0.1
0.3
Exports (y-o-y, %)
11.6
8.4
10.1
5.4
6.8
7.5
10.2
4.1
-
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %)
2.2
2.1
1.9
2.9
3.4
3.6
4.0
4.0
3.8 (3.6)1
1. September inflation
8
October 2008
1-4
China’s GDP and fixed asset investment Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
1-5
Japan’s GDP growth Source: Cabinet Office & Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan
1-6
Eurozone GDP growth and industrial production Source: Eurostat
Economic Bulletin
9
2. Private consumption Private consumption (preliminary GDP) in the second quarter of 2008 gained a mere 2.3 percent year-on-year and fell 0.1 percent compared to the preceding quarter, the first loss in four years since the second quarter of 2004. Private consumption (y-o-y, %) 4.1 (Q1 2007)
4.4 (Q2)
4.8 (Q3)
(SA*, q-o-q, %): 1.6 (Q1 2007)
4.6 (Q4)
0.9 (Q2)
3.4 (Q1 2008)
1.3 (Q3)
2.3 (Q2)
0.8 (Q4)
0.4 (Q1 2008)
-0.2 (Q2)
* SA: seasonally adjusted
August consumer goods sales have continued a downward trend, as their year-on-year growth has decelerated to 1.5 percent from 3.9 percent a month earlier due to the decline in durable goods sales. In particular, sales of automobiles sharply fell, while those of semidurable goods such as apparel and textures surged. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
2007
2008
Annual
Annual
Q3
Q4
Aug
Q1
Q2
Jun
Jul1
Aug1
Consumer goods sales
4.1
5.3
7.1
4.5
5.8
3.9
2.5
-1.0
3.9
1.5
(Seasonally adjusted)
-
-
1.8
0.3
1.2
2.0
-1.1
-4.3
4.5
0.1
11.2
11.0
10.1
6.9
11.1
8.2
7.6
0.3
7.2
-3.9
- Durable goods
2
3
路Automobiles
6.9
6.8
4.1
3.9
11.5
9.5
7.1
-5.1
5.7
-13.1
- Semi-durable goods4
3.0
2.9
3.2
2.9
2.4
5.4
-1.6
-0.9
3.9
9.5
- Non-durable goods
1.7
3.7
7.1
4.0
4.4
1.5
1.6
-1.8
2.0
1.6
5
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period 3. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 4. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 5. Non-durable good: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobaccos, etc.
While sales at department stores sharply jumped on the back of their gift with purchase events which extended by two days, those at large discounters grew at a slower pace and those at specialized retailers turned negative due to sluggish sales of automobiles. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) Annual
Annual
Q3
Q4
2008 (Percentage (Percentage change change from from same same period period in in previous previous year) year) 1 Aug Q1 Q2 Jun Jul1 Aug1
- Department stores
3.3
0.7
3.2
2.8
3.8
- Large discounters
8.1
8.7
12.2
4.4
6.2
7.3
3.2
2.7
4.5
1.2
- Specialized retailers2
2.3
5.6
7.0
4.4
5.9
1.6
0.1
-5.9
1.5
-1.7
2006
2007
1. Preliminary 2. Specialized retailers are defined as stores carrying a few (1 to 3) specialized items.
10
October 2008
4.3
3.7
5.6
-0.7
8.5
2-1
Private consumption Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
2-2
Consumer goods sales Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
2-3
Consumer goods sales by type Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
11
Given preliminary consumption indices and deterioration in consumer sentiment, consumer goods sales in September are unlikely to break its current downtrend. Sales growth at department stores and large discount stores reversed course to fall, while domestic credit card spending kept its upward momentum, posting double digit growth. Domestic demand for Korean automobiles has continued a downward trend for two months in a row, and retail gasoline sales have went down for four straight months. However, both declined at a slower pace, compared to last month. Value of credit card use (y-o-y, %) 19.4 (Apr 2008)
20.0 (May)
18.8 (Jun)
22.9 (Jul)
19.0 (Aug)
21.0 (Sep)
Department store sales (y-o-y, %) 6.5 (Apr 2008)
11.3 (May)
11.2 (Jun)
5.9 (Jul)
14.0 (Aug)
- 2.7 (Sep)
Discount store sales (y-o-y, %) 0.1 (Apr 2008)
4.9 (May)
-1.9 (Jun)
2.1 (Jul)
1.1 (Aug)
- 2.8 (Sep)
Domestic sales of Korean automobiles (y-o-y, %) 11.4 (Apr 2008)
3.3 (May)
-7.5 (Jun)
5.1 (Jul)
-18.7 (Aug)
-14.5 (Sep)
Sales of gasoline (y-o-y, %) 6.5 (Apr 2008)
0.0 (May)
-4.6 (Jun)
-5.1 (Jul)
-3.2 (Aug)
-0.8 (Sep)
Source: Ministry of Knowledge and Economy The Credit Finance Association Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association Korea National Oil Corporation Ministry of Strategy and Finance (for September data)
The recent fall in oil prices has put brakes on rising consumer prices to some extent. However, there still remain some factors which have negative effects on consumer sentiment, such as the deteriorating job market, bear stock markets, and expanding uncertainties in financial markets. Dubai oil price (US$/barrel, end-period) 120.0 (May 2008)
136.2 (Jun)
140.7 (Jul 4)
123.3 (Jul)
111.0 (Aug)
87.9 (Sep)
Consumer price index (y-o-y, %) 4.1 (Apr 2008)
4.9 (May)
5.5 (Jun)
5.9 (Jul)
5.6 (Aug)
153 (Jul)
159 (Aug)
5.1 (Sep)
Employment growth (y-o-y, thousand) 209 (Q1 2008)
173 (Q2)
147 (Jun)
KOSPI (end-period) 1,825 (Apr 2008)
1,852 (May)
1,675 (Jun)
1,595 (Jul)
Consumer sentiment index 102 (Q1 2008)
85 (Q2)
Source: The Bank of Korea
12
October 2008
84 (Jul)
96 (Aug)
96 (Sep)
1,474 (Aug)
1,448 (Sep)
2-4
Department store and discount store sales (current value) Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy (monthly retail sales)
2-5
Domestic automobile sales Source: Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association (monthly automobile industry trend)
2-6
Consumer sentiment index Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
13
3. Facility investment Facility investment (preliminary GDP) in the second quarter of this year remained lackluster, gaining 0.7 percent year-on-year and 0.9 percent compared to the first quarter. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
Facility investment
2
(Seasonally adjusted)
20071
20081
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
7.8
7.6
10.9
11.0
2.3
6.5
1.4
0.7
-
-
4.5
1.6
-1.8
2.1
-0.4
0.9
- Machinery
8.2
7.6
13.5
9.5
1.0
7.0
-0.9
-0.1
- Transportation equipment
6.0
7.7
0.3
18.9
8.9
4.0
12.3
4.4
1. Preliminary
3
2. National accounts
3. Percentage change from previous period
The facility investment (estimated) in August slowed its growth pace as rising investments in machinery were outweighed by decreased investments in transportation equipment such as automobiles and airplanes. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
2007
Annual Annual Facility investment (estimated)
Q1
Q2
2008 Q3
Q4
Aug
Q1
Q2
Jun
Jul1
Aug1
8.9
8.6
12.8
11.9
0.7
9.2
3.5
-0.9
0.1
4.4
9.9
1.6
-
-
2.9
0.5
-1.6
5.9
3.3
-5.3
1.4
5.4
1.3
0.1
- Machinery
10.2
8.5
16.4
12.1
-0.5
6.4
0.8
-1.8
-1.6
7.3
6.3
5.8
- Tranportation equipment
3.9
9.0
-3.3
12.3
6.0
21.0
19.1
2.9
7.6
-13.4
32.2
-18.8
(Seasonally adjusted)2
1. Preliminary
2. Percentage change from previous period
Leading indicators such as machinery orders, machinery imports, and the business survey index (BSI) indicate that facility investment in September is unlikely to improve. Domestic machinery orders in August went down 1.7 percent year-on-year, on the back of a decrease in machinery orders from the public sector. Also, growth in machinery imports slowed down to 5.9 percent from 24.8 percent a month earlier. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
2007
Annual Annual Domestic machinery orders
Q1
Q2
2008 Q3
Q4
Aug
Q1
Q2
Jun
Jul1
Aug1
16.2
21.1
18.9
7.1
19.1
39.3
5.1
25.2
8.8
6.3
20.7
-1.7
- Public
0.3
-11.2
13.9
-47.7
-26.9
12.9
-46.7
8.8
83.4
228.1
5.3
-24.3
- Private
18.0
24.2
19.1
11.6
24.0
43.4
11.1
25.9
5.9
-2.6
21.8
-0.4
18.0
22.1
20.8
33.9
4.9
30.3
17.8
12.0
8.3
6.4
24.8
5.9
Machinery imports 1. Preliminary
The Bank of Korea’s BSI projections for facility investments in the manufacturing sector fell 3 points from the previous month.
2008
Business survey indexes (base=100) May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Manufacturing facility investment result
100
100
98
99
96
-
Manufacturing facility investment prospect
103
103
100
98
99
96
Source: The Bank of Korea
14
October 2008
3-1
Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
3-2
Machinery orders and estimated facility investment (3-month average) Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
3-3
Machinery imports Source: Korea International Trade Association (KITA)
Economic Bulletin
15
4. Construction investment Construction investment (preliminary GDP) in the second quarter of 2008 fell 1.2 percent year-on-year and 1.0 percent compared to the first quarter of 2008. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
20071
Annual
Annual
-0.1
1.2
-
-
- Building construction
-0.7
1.8
- Civil engineering works
0.7
0.3
Construction investment
2
(Seasonally adjusted)3
Q1
20081
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
3.7
1.6
-0.1
0.4
-1.1
-1.2
-0.3
-1.2
0.2
1.2
-1.4
-1.0
2.0
1.2
1.8
2.2
-0.3
-1.8
7.2
2.1
-2.9
-1.8
-2.5
-0.5
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts 3. Percentage change from previous period
In August, construction completed (current value) stayed on the upward track in both the private and public sectors, led by engineering works including plants largely because of rising prices of construction materials. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
2007
Annual Annual Construction completed
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Aug
Q1
Q2
Jun
Jul1
Aug1
2.6
6.6
7.9
6.0
4.4
8.0
8.6
5.8
6.5
7.4
10.2
10.0
- Building construction
1.8
6.2
6.5
4.1
4.0
9.8
6.8
4.7
6.6
8.2
11.5
5.8
- Civil engineering works
4.3
6.9
9.9
9.2
4.8
5.0
11.8
8.1
6.4
6.2
8.0
19.0
2
1. Preliminary 2. Industrial activity
Given the housing downturn and waning investor confidence, it is unlikely that construction investment snaps its downward trend in the months to come. Business survey index for construction (base=100) 51.4 (Apr 2008)
49.3 (May)
51.7 (Jun)
52.5 (Jul)
52.3 (Aug)
Source: The Construction and Economy Research Institute of Korea
Construction orders (current value), one component of the leading composite index, dropped 7.6 percent year-on-year as a gain of 11.2 percent in the public sector was blunted by a loss of 10.5 percent in the private sector. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
2007
Annual Annual Construction orders2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Aug
Q1
Q2
Jun
Jul1
Aug1
-5.6
29.5
13.4
-3.9
-6.1
-23.4
-13.0
-7.6
9.0
19.3
26.3
26.3
- Public
-6.3
34.2
49.3
21.2
7.3
47.2
72.5
20.0
18.6
9.7
-8.8
11.2
- Private
12.8
13.1
21.8
17.0
-12.9
28.6
6.0
-15.0
-5.9
-22.7
-8.1
-10.5
1. Preliminary 2. Current value
16
2008
October 2008
4-1
Construction investment Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
4-2
Construction completed and housing construction Source: Korea National Statistical Office (construction completed) Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (housing construction)
4-3
Leading indicators of construction investment Source: Korea National Statistical Office (construction orders) Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (building construction permit area)
Economic Bulletin
17
5. Exports and Imports Exports in September totaled US$37.75 billion, up 28.7 percent from a year earlier. According to the estimates by the Ministry of Knowledge and Economy, exports of vessels (up 127%), petroleum goods (up 89%), steel (up 74%), wireless telecommunications equipment (up 38%), and general machinery (up 26%) have been resilient, while those of automobiles (down 18%), semiconductors (down 10%), and computers (down 31%) have slid. By regional category, exports to the Middle East (up 29%), and Central and South America (up 36%) have boomed, while those to the US (up 2%), Japan (up 7%), China (up 7%), and ASEAN nations (up 4%) have relatively been sluggish. (US$ billion) 2007
2008
Jul
Aug
Sep
Jan-Sep
Jul
Aug
Sep
Jan-Sep
Exports
30.21
31.00
29.32
268.22
41.01
36.79
37.75
329.55
(y-o-y, %)
(14.8)
(13.6)
(-1.1)
(12.7)
(36.0)
(18.7)
(28.7)
(22.9)
Average daily exports
1.42
1.31
1.30
1.30
1.70
1.64
1.66
1.61
Imports
29.22
29.64
27.19
256.28
43.02
40.60
39.65
343.80
(y-o-y, %)
(14.4)
(9.7)
(1.6)
(11.7)
(47.2)
(37.0)
(45.8)
(34.1)
Average daily imports
1.27
1.24
1.40
1.26
1.72
1.80
1.76
1.68
Trade balance
0.98
1.36
2.13
11.94
-2.02
-3.81
-1.90
-14.24
September imports soared 45.8 percent year-on-year to post US$39.65 billion. The upsurge in imports, driven by raw materials (up 70%) such as crude oil (up 61%) and steel (up 118%), has continued, and capital goods imports posted double digit growth. However, consumer goods imports were sluggish. Raw materials (y-o-y, %) 40.2 (May 2008)
45.2 (Jun)
66.3 (Jul)
58.2 (Aug)
69.9 (Sep 1~20)
20.6 (Jul)
7.9 (Aug)
16.0 (Sep 1~20)
20.3 (Jul)
8.8 (Aug)
4.0 (Sept 1~20)
Capital goods (y-o-y, %) 13.4 (May 2008)
14.0 (Jun)
Consumer goods (y-o-y, %) 14.0 (May 2008)
18.9 (Jun)
In September, Korea’s trade balance posted a deficit of US$1.90 billion, down from a deficit of US$3.81 billion a month earlier. However, the trade account has been on negative territory for four straight months since last June, as imports growth has exceeded exports growth. Dubai crude oil price (US$/barrel) 69.7 (Jul 2007)
67.4 (Aug)
73.4 (Sep), 131.3 (Jul 2008)
113.0 (Aug)
96.3 (Sep)
October’s trade balance is projected to turn positive. Exports are expected to rise, especially from October to November, due to increasing demand from overseas. Moreover, the decline in crude oil import costs, caused by the fall in global oil prices, will be reflected in the trade balance.
18
October 2008
5-1
Exports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend) 43.4 38.0 32.5 27.1 21.7 16.3 10.8 5.4
5-2
Imports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
5-3
Trade balance Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
Economic Bulletin
19
6. Mining and manufacturing production Production in mining and manufacturing in August grew a meager 1.9 percent, compared to 8.6 percent growth a year earlier, owing to auto workers union’s strikes, slowed exports growth of 18.7 percent from the previous month’s 35.7 percent, and a 1.5 day decrease in the number of working days. In working-day-adjusted terms, the decline in output growth a bit eased. Year-on-year output growth with working days reflected (%) 7.9 (Q4 2007)
10.2 (Q1 2008)
9.5 (Q2), 7.0 (Jun)
6.1 (Jul)
4.3 (Aug)
By business category, production of semiconductors & parts (up 5.5%) and audiovisual telecommunications equipment (up 18.3%) has contributed to output growth on a year-onyear basis. Contribution to year-on-year output growth (%p) Semiconductors & parts (1.01), audiovisual telecommunications (1.05)
August shipment growth tumbled to 2.0 percent from 8.2 percent in the previous month, while inventories slightly slowed their growth pace to 14.4 percent compared to the previous month’s 14.8 percent. Semiconductors & parts contributed 11.2 percentage points to August inventory growth of 14.4 percent. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007 Annual
Q2
Aug
Q1
Q2
Jun
Jul1
Aug1
-
3.0
0.7
2.1
1.4
0.1
-0.4
-2.2
(y-o-y)
6.8
6.2
8.8
10.6
8.6
6.6
8.6
1.9
(days operated reflected)
7.0
6.0
7.5
10.2
9.5
7.0
6.1
4.3
- Manufacturing
7.0
6.3
9.1
10.7
9.0
6.9
8.7
1.9
·Heavy chemical industry
8.2
7.0
10.7
12.9
11.1
8.6
9.6
3.4
·Light industry
1.7
3.0
2.5
1.5
-0.7
-1.3
4.0
-4.7
7.1
6.9
7.2
8.9
6.3
4.4
8.2
2.0
- Domestic demand
4.9
5.7
4.6
5.3
1.7
0.2
5.1
-1.3
- Exports
10.2
8.7
11.0
14.3
13.5
10.7
12.6
6.7
5.7
3.9
5.2
9.0
16.5
16.5
14.8
14.4
80.3
80.7
81.0
81.1
81.0
80.5
79.7
78.8
5.2
4.4
5.9
5.9
6.2
6.1
5.4
4.8
Production (q-o-q, m-o-m)
Mining and manufacturing activity2
2008
Shipment
Inventory
3
Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) activity Production capacity 1. Preliminary 2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry 3. End-period (month, quarter and year)
September’s production in the mining and manufacturing sector is forecast to be an improvement on August’s, on the back of a 28.7 percent rise in exports in September, the low base effect from a 3.1 percent fall in September 2007, as well as the increased working days of 22. 5 days in September compared to 19.5 days a year earlier.
20
October 2008
6-1
Industrial production Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
6-2
Average manufacturing operation ratio Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
6-3
Inventory Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
21
7. Service sector activity Service activity in August recorded a year-on-year growth of 1.6 percent, slowing from the previous month’s 3.9 percent. By business category, financial & insurance services (up 7.0%), healthcare & social welfare services (up 5.2%) and entertainment, cultural & sports services (up 4.2%) have contributed to the output growth in the service sector. Meanwhile, real estate & renting (down 14.8%), educational services (down 0.8%), communication services (up 0.5%), and transportation services (up 0.7%) have shown sluggish performance, reflecting deteriorating consumer sentiment and a contracted housing market. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) Weight
2007
2006 Annual Annual
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Aug
Q1
Q2
Jun
Jul1
Aug1
Service activity index
100
5.5
6.4
5.4
6.1
7.2
6.8
7.7
6.4
4.6
2.9
3.9
1.6
- Wholesale & retail
22.0
3.8
4.3
4.3
3.7
4.2
5.2
4.4
3.9
2.5
1.2
5.6
3.8
- Hotels & restaurants
7.8
2.2
2.4
2.0
2.6
2.2
2.9
3.5
3.1
1.7
2.2
0.7
1.8
- Transportation services
9.0
6.9
7.1
6.6
5.5
8.4
8.1
9.6
7.7
8.1
6.4
5.4
0.7
- Communication services
5.0
3.6
3.7
3.1
2.9
2.3
6.3
3.5
4.8
4.6
3.9
5.7
0.5
- Financial & insurance services
15.4
9.0
16.0
9.5
16.3
18.3
19.5
18.6
15.3
10.0
6.2
9.3
7.0
- Real estate & renting
6.3
9.8
2.7
6.9
2.0
6.6
-3.5
13.9
5.8
2.6
-3.9
-6.3
-14.8
- Business services
10.0
5.7
6.6
5.3
6.7
7.0
7.4
7.9
5.0
3.8
3.0
4.9
0.7
- Educational services
10.6
2.6
2.3
3.0
2.5
2.5
1.4
-2.7
3.3
1.9
2.3
-0.7
-0.8
- Healthcare & social welfare services
6.0
11.0
8.5
8.3
9.0
9.2
7.4
11.0
6.2
6.8
5.6
5.7
5.2
- Entertainment, cultural & sports services
3.8
1.8
6.4
5.5
6.4
7.5
5.7
9.3
4.1
1.8
1.6
-0.3
4.2
- Other public & personal services
4.2
3.8
0.7
1.0
0.1
0.7
1.0
1.7
2.0
0.9
-0.1
0.1
-4.9
1. Preliminary
Service output growth in September is expected to be limited amid weak domestic consumption and growing inflationary pressures. CPI (y-o-y, %) 3.3 (Q4 2007)
3.8 (Q1 2008)
4.8 (Q2)
Private consumption (y-o-y, %) 4.6 (Q4 2007)
22
October 2008
3.4 (Q1 2008)
2.3 (Q2)
5.9 (Jul)
5.6 (Aug)
5.1 (Sep)
7-1
Service industry Source: Korea National Statistical Office (service industry activity trend)
80.0 70.0
7-2
Wholesale and retail sales Source: Korea National Statistical Office (service industry activity trend)
Aug 2008 service industry by business Source: Korea National Statistical Office (service industry activity trend)
Edu cati ona l
Bus ines s se rvic es
rent ing Rea l es tate &
Com mun icat ion serv ices Fina serv ncial & ices insu ranc e
Tran spo rtat ion
5.0
Hot els &
10.0
Wh oles ale &
reta il
15.0
rest aura nts
20.0
serv ices Hea l t h serv care ices & s ocia l we lfar e Ente spo rtainm rts s en ervi t, cu ces ltura l& Oth & p er pub erso lic, nal repa serv ir ices
25.0
Tota l ind ex
7-3
0.0 -5.0 -10.0 -15.0 -20.0
Economic Bulletin
23
8. Employment The labor market remained weak in August as the number of Korean workers on payroll increased a mere 159,000 from a year earlier largely due to sluggish domestic demand. The figure is compared with a monthly average increase of 282,000 in 2007. Service sector employment continued robust growth with an increase of 247,000, driven by healthcare & social welfare services whose employment growth accelerated to 107,000. However, the overall job growth slowed in the sector as hiring in wholesale & retail sales and hotels & restaurants declined 50,000 while that in business services rose a mere 30,000. The manufacturing sector has continued its downward trend caused by structural factors such as informatization. Its employment decreased 33,000 despite the recent robust exports. Hiring in the construction sector has been falling since the third quarter of 2007 due to a recent slump in the housing market and chilled investor sentiment in construction. The number of employed in the sector dropped 27,000 in August. Agriculture, forestry and fisheries lost 35,000 jobs, continuing its downward trend in the employment as its share in the national economy has contracted. By status of workers, growth in the number of wage workers has decelerated to 221,000, as companies held back from hiring new employees due to worsening external conditions. The number of temporary or daily workers, in particular, shrank significantly by 123,000 year-onyear, while the number of regular workers rose by 344,000. The employment rate posted 59.6 percent, down 0.2 percentage points compared to the same month of the previous year. The unemployment rate remained unchanged month-on-month at 3.1 percent while the unemployment rate of youths aged 15 to 29 rose 0.4 percentage points from a year earlier to 7.1 percent. (Change from same period in previous year, thousand) 2007
2008
Aug
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Jul
Aug
293
282
264
289
296
278
210
173
153
159
- Agriculture, forestry and fishery
-71
-58
-42
-52
-72
-67
-62
-52
-43
-35
- Manufacturing
-62
-48
-51
-55
-50
-37
-24
-25
-29
-33
- Construction
-14
15
46
30
-6
-9
-17
-38
-26
-27
- Services
439
373
309
367
424
392
312
285
244
247
Employment growth
Unemployment rate (%)
3.1
3.2
3.6
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.4
3.1
3.1
3.1
Employment rate (%)
59.8
59.8
58.6
60.6
60.2
60.0
58.5
60.4
60.3
59.6
24
October 2008
8-1
Number of employed and employment growth Source: Korea National Statistical Office (employment trend)
8-2
Share of employed by industry Source: Korea National Statistical Office (employment trend)
8-3
Unemployment rate and number of unemployed Source: Korea National Statistical Office (employment trend)
Economic Bulletin
25
9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market The Korean stock market in September remained unstable along with the global financial market where volatility has heightened since Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy protection on September 14. The KOSPI nosedived to 1,388 points on September 16, the lowest record this year, as investors overreacted even to insignificant market news with their highly deteriorating sentiment. The Korean main bourse thereafter continued to fluctuate. Foreign investors maintained a net selling position in Asian emerging countries including Korea in line with the continued deleveraging in the global market to secure liquidity. Net selling by foreign investors (trillion won) 23.8 (Jan-Jul 2008)
3.3 (Aug)
3.9 (Sep) (End-period, point, trillion won)
KOSPI
Stock price index Market capitalization
KOSDAQ
2007
Sep 2008
Change
1,897.1
1,448.1
951.9 5.5
Average daily trade value
2007
Sep 2008
Change1
-449.0 (-23.67%)
704.2
440.8
-263.4 (-37.40%)
736.6
-215.3 (-22.6%)
99.9
67.3
-32.6 (-32.6%)
5.4
-0.1 (-1.8%)
2.0
1.1
-0.9 (-45.0%)
1
1. Change from the end of previous year
9.2 Exchange rate The won/dollar exchange rate recorded a steep rise in September as falling global stock prices triggered by US financial woes led foreign investors to retrieve their portfolio investments from the Korean stock market and buy dollars. The exchange rate exceeded the 1,200 won mark as credit concerns spread and fears on a foreign currency crunch mounted after a US financial institution collapsed. The won/yen exchange rate jumped to the 1,150 won range amid the won’s depreciation against the strengthening dollar and the strong yen. (End-period) 2005
2006
2007
2008
Dec
Dec
Dec
Aug
Sep
Change1
Won/Dollar
1,011.6
929.8
936.1
1,089.0
1,207.0
-22.4
Won/100Yen
858.5
783.4
828.6
998.9
1,157.5
-28.4
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.
26
October 2008
9-1
Stock prices
9-2
Foreign exchange rate (month-end)
9-3
Recent foreign exchange rate
Economic Bulletin
27
9.3 Bond market Bond yields in September fluctuated as investors became conservative due to worrisome economic slowdowns at home and abroad and increasing market instability. Yields on corporate bonds stayed on the upward track for two consecutive months as investor sentiment contracted in fear of credit risks of businesses amid the economic slowdown. (End-period)
Call rate (1 day)
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Change1
3.29
3.76
4.60
5.02
5.01
5.02
5.28
5.22
-6
CD (91 days)
3.43
4.09
4.86
5.82
5.37
5.68
5.79
5.83
4
Treasury bonds (3 yrs)
3.28
5.08
4.92
5.74
5.90
5.80
5.77
5.74
-3
Corporate bonds (3 yrs)
3.72
5.52
5.29
6.77
6.88
6.91
7.34
7.76
42
Treasury bonds (5 yrs)
3.39
5.36
5.00
5.78
5.98
5.86
5.86
5.75
-11
1. Basis point changes in September 2008 from the previous month
9.4 Money supply & money market M2 in July increased 14.8 percent year-on-year, decelerating its growth from the previous month’s 15.1 percent, although growth in credit supply to businesses and households edged up. The eased M2 growth was mainly due to money outflows amid withdrawal of foreign funds from the domestic stock market. (Percentage change from same period in previous year, period average) 2006
2007
2008
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
May
Jun
Jul
Jul1
9.1
8.1
9.4
9.8
8.3
4.8
1.0
1.0
1.4
306.6
M12 M2
8.3
11.2
11.5
11.0
11.1
11.2
15.8
15.1
14.8
1,378.9
Lf 3
7.9
10.2
10.0
10.2
10.2
10.5
13.1
12.7
13.24
1,801.44
1. Balance, trillion won 2. Excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3) 4. Preliminary
In July, bank deposit growth slowed as instant access accounts decreased due to VAT payments, although time deposits returned to positive backed by special offers by some banks and higher interest rates for bank deposits. Asset management company (AMC) deposits continued to decline as higher market interest rates dragged down yields on bond funds amid sluggish fund inflows into equity funds. (Monthly change, end-period, trillion won) 2007 Jul
Aug
Sep
2008 Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-Jul
May
Jun
Jul
Bank deposits
-8.3
4.3
6.5
7.6
11.3
-4.3
53.1
9.3
5.3
0.6
AMC deposits
3.9
4.0
3.3
13.0
14.3
-0.4
61.4
14.7
-1.0
-0.3
28
October 2008
9-4
Interest rates Source: The Bank of Korea
9-5
Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea
9-6
Share of deposits by financial sector (M3 as of year-end) Source: The Bank of Korea * Retail finance: Mutual savings banks & National Credit Union Federation of Korea, Others: Investment banks, post office savings, etc.
Economic Bulletin
29
10. Balance of payments Despite the decreased service account deficit, Korea registered a record high current account deficit of US$4.71 billion in August, compared with a surplus of US$570 million a year earlier. The goods account has posted a huge deficit due to surging commodity imports, which hampered the nation’s current account balance. The goods account deficit posted a massive US$2.82 billion, after registering a US$2.91 billion surplus a year earlier. Imports continued to increase led by commodities as lower oil prices were not fully reflected on import prices and a US$8 billion deficit was derived from the adjustment of time difference between customs clearance and hand-over of exported ships, which led to a large goods account deficit. Balance from the adjustment of time difference between customs clearance and hand-over of exported ships (US$ billion) 1.4 (Jan 2008)
-0.3 (Feb)
0.2 (Mar)
0.5 (Apr)
-1.9 (May)
2.4 (Jun)
0.2 (Jul)
-0.8 (Aug)
The service account deficit narrowed to US$2.0 billion in August from US$2.45 billion a year earlier despite increased business service deficits, as the travel account deficit continued to shrink while the transportation account surplus expanded. The income account surplus amounted to US$320 million in August thanks to stable interest income helped by an increase in overseas investments. Interest income (US$ billion) 1.4 (Jan 2008)
1.4 (Feb)
1.3 (Mar)
1.6 (Apr)
1.3 (May)
1.4 (Jun)
1.3 (Jul)
1.1 (Aug) (US$ billion)
2007
2008
Jun
Jul
Aug
Jan-Aug
Jun
Jul
Aug
Jan-Aug
Current account
1.27
1.55
0.57
0.5
1.82
-2.53
-4.71
-12.59
- Goods balance
3.21
3.04
2.91
18.96
3.48
0.22
-2.82
1.90
- Service balance
-1.52
-1.69
-2.45
-14.71
-2.13
-2.46
-2.00
-13.80
- Income balance
0.0
0.53
0.44
-1.25
0.83
0.24
0.32
1.61
- Current transfers
-0.42
-0.34
-0.33
-2.5
-0.35
-0.54
-0.22
-2.31
The capital and financial account balance in August turned to a net inflow of US$5.33 billion for the first time in five months since March 2008 as the other investment account recorded a huge inflow, although the direct and portfolio investment account showed a net outflow. The net outflow of portfolio investment account recorded a mere US$600 million in August compared with a huge US$8.9 billion in July, which also supported the capital and financial account. Capital & financial account balance (US$ billion) -1.36 (Jun 2007)
0.54 (Jul)
-0.3 (Aug), -3.99 (Jun 2008)
-5.77 (Jul)
5.33 (Aug)
The current account deficit in September is expected to have significantly narrowed as a deficit computed by the export-import gap decreased from US$3.8 billion in August to US$1.9 billion. The service account balance is also expected to have improved from a year earlier due to the sluggish economy, the weak won and shorter Chuseok (Korean Thanksgiving) holidays.
30
October 2008
10-1 Current account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
5,000
3,000
1,000
-1,000
-3,000
-5,000
10-2 Travel balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-3 Capital & financial account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend) 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 -2,000 -4,000 -6,000 -8,000 -10,000
Economic Bulletin
31
11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices Consumer prices in September rose by 5.1 percent year-on-year decelerating the increase for two straight months. They went up by 0.1 percent month-on-month.
Consumer price inflation 2007
2008
Sep
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Month-on-Month (%)
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.9
0.6
0.8
0.6
0.7
-0.2
0.1
Year-on-Year (%)
2.3
3.9
3.6
3.9
4.1
4.9
5.5
5.9
5.6
5.1
Prices of oil products in September fell 4.7 percent month-on-month as the drops in international oil prices since mid July have pushed down oil prices at local gas stations. The price of Dubai crude decreased by 14.8 percent in September to US$96.3 a barrel from the previous month’s US$113.0 a barrel. Prices of oil products in Sep 2008 (m-o-m, %) Gasoline (-4.0), diesel (-6.2), kerosene (-6.4)
Prices of agriculture products also stabilized in September even though Chuseok (Korean Thanksgiving) holidays fell on September 13 to 15. They, however, inched up 0.1 percent from a month earlier mainly as milk prices surged 17.9 percent. With higher milk prices, prices of diary products also increased with cheese (up 9.8%) and fermented milk (up 4.4%) leading the way. Meanwhile, the price of gold rings went up 12.1 percent monthon-month in line with higher international gold prices.
Consumer price inflation in major sectors Total
Agricultural, livestock & fishery products
Industrial products
Oil products
Public utility
Housing rents
Personal services
Month-on-Month (%)
0.1
0.1
-0.2
-4.7
0.0
0.1
0.1
Sep 2008 contribution (%p)
0.1
0.01
-0.06
-0.32
0.00
0.01
0.03
Year-on-Year (%)
5.1
-0.9
9.3
21.4
3.9
2.4
5.3
Sep 2008 contribution (%p)
5.1
-0.08
2.82
1.21
0.26
0.23
1.85
Core consumer prices, which exclude the prices of oil and agricultural products, accelerated growth by increasing 5.1 percent from a year earlier and 0.5 percent from a month earlier. Consumer prices for basic necessities, a barometer of perceived consumer prices, were up 5.8 percent in September compared to the same month of the previous year.
2007
2008
Sep
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Core consumer prices (y-o-y)
2.3
2.8
2.8
3.3
3.5
3.9
4.3
4.6
4.7
5.1
(m-o-m)
0.1
0.6
0.4
1.1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.5
Consumer prices for basic necessities (y-o-y)
2.7
5.1
4.6
4.9
5.1
5.9
7.0
7.1
6.6
5.5
32
October 2008
11-1 Prices Source: Korea National Statistical Office (consumer prices, core inflation) & The Bank of Korea (producer prices)
11-2 Consumer price inflation Source: Korea National Statistical Office (consumer price trend)
11-3 Contribution to consumer price inflation Source: Korea National Statistical Office (consumer price trend)
Economic Bulletin
33
11.2. International oil and commodity prices International oil prices dropped in September thanks to the prospect that the global economic slowdown will damp oil demand and flight of speculative funds amid financial market unrest in the US. (US$/barrel, period average) 2005
2006
2007
2008
Annual
Annual
Annual
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Dubai crude
49.4
61.6
68.4
96.9
103.6
119.5
127.9
131.3
112.9
96.3
Brent crude
54.3
65.1
72.8
104.2
108.9
122.7
132.7
133.6
113.5
98.2
WTI crude
56.5
66.0
72.3
105.4
112.6
125.4
133.9
133.4
116.6
103.7
Record high oil prices (spot prices, US$/barrel) Dubai crude: 140.7 (Jul 4, 2008), Brent crude: 144.5 (Jul 3), WTI crude: 145.5 (Jul 14)
Prices of domestic oil products including gasoline and diesel went down from a month earlier in tandem with lower prices of international oil and oil products. (Won/liter, period average) (Won/liter, period average)
2005
2006
2007
Annual
Annual
Annual
Mar
Apr
May
2008 Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Gasoline prices
1,432
1,492
1,526
1,670
1,698
1,803
1,907
1,923
1,785
1,716
Diesel prices
1,080
1,228
1,273
1,504
1,611
1,768
1,910
1,919
1,766
1,664
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Overall international prices of major non-ferrous metals and grains in September were down month-on-month, dragged by US financial market woes, lower oil prices, and a possible decrease in demand on concerns over the global economic slowdown. As for non-ferrous metals, supply and demand conditions are expected to improve as inventories of electrolytic cooper, aluminum and nickel expanded. Also, grain yields will likely increase driven by wheat and soybean. Prices of non-ferrous metals and agricultural products in Sep 2008 (m-o-m, %) Corn (-3.9), wheat (-12.1), soybean (-8.6), bronze (-7.9), aluminum (-8.7), nickel (-5.6), lead (-1.7), tin (-8.2) ; zinc (1.3)
Reuters index*
(Period average)
2005
2006
2007
Annual
Annual
Annual
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
1,680
2,019
2,400
2,923
2,773
2,737
2,765
2,775
2,663
2,512
* A weighted average index of 17 major commodities
34
October 2008
2008
11-4 International oil prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
11-5 International oil prices (Dubai crude) and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation & Korea Customs Service 135,000
135
125,000 115,000 105,000
115
95
95,000 85,000
75
75,000 65,000 55,000
55
35
45,000 35,000
15
11-6 International commodity prices Source: Bloomberg (CRB) & The Bank of Korea (Reuters index) * CRB demonstrates futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry. 470 430 390 350 310 270 230 190 150
Economic Bulletin
35
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market Nationwide apartment sales prices inched up a mere 0.2 percent during the September moving season. It is mainly due to increasing concerns over the global financial crisis and a wait-and-see attitude in expectation of additional government measures to boost the real estate market. The price has declined for two consecutive months in Gangnam, an upscale area of Southern Seoul.
Nationwide apartment sales prices 2004
2005
Annual
Annual
Nationwide
-0.6
5.9
13.8
Seoul
-1.0
9.1
-1.3
13.5
Gangnam Gangbuk
2
2006
(Percentage change from previous period) 2007
Annual Annual
2008 Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Sep 81 Sep 151 Sep 221 Sep 291
2.1
1.0
0.6
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.05
0.02
0.03
0.02
24.1
3.6
2.0
0.8
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.01
-0.01
-0.02
-0.04
27.6
0.5
0.7
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.01
-0.02
-0.03
-0.06
3
-0.6
3.2
19.0
8.3
3.5
1.4
0.9
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.02
0.01
0.00
-0.02
Gyeonggi
-3.7
7.6
28.4
3.0
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.3
0.0
0.1
-0.01
-0.01
-0.05
-0.02
1. Weekly trends 2. Upscale area of southern Seoul Source: Kookmin Bank
3. Northern Seoul
The rental price in September increased 0.3 percent from the previous month boosted by active transactions as demand for rental apartments grew month-on-month.
Nationwide apartment rental prices 2004
2005
2006
Annual
Annual
Nationwide
-2.7
5.7
7.6
Seoul
-4.4
6.2
11.5
Gangnam2
-5.2
8.6
Gangbuk
3
-3.3
Gyeonggi
-5.5
(Percentage change from previous period)
2007
Annual Annual
2008 Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Sep 81 Sep 151 Sep 221 Sep 291
1.9
0.6
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.10
0.05
0.11
0.05
2.2
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.00
-0.02
0.05
-0.01
11.3
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.08
-0.03
-0.01
-0.08
2.9
11.8
4.6
1.0
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.09
0.00
0.12
0.06
10.6
12.4
2.0
0.8
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.14
0.04
0.05
0.05
1. Weekly trends 2. Upscale area of southern Seoul Source: Kookmin Bank
3. Northern Seoul
Apartment sales transactions in August decreased from the previous month as well as from the same month of the previous year.
Apartment sales transactions 2005
2006
Annual Annual 79
94
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
65
55
80
80
76
80
70
88
97
82
85
84
63
Source: Korea Land Corporation
36
October 2008
(Monthly average, thousand) 2008
2007
12-1 Real estate prices Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
12-2 Weekly apartment sales prices and monthly transaction volume Source: Kookmin Bank (weekly APT price trend) & Korea Land Corporation (monthly land trade trend)
12-3 Apartment prices by region Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
Economic Bulletin
37
12.2 Land market Growth in nationwide land prices in August stood at 0.42 percent, the same as the previous month. Out of 249 cities, countries and districts, 64 areas including 52 in the Seoul metropolitan area witnessed a higher price increase than the national average of 0.42 percent. Nevertheless, the rest stood below the average.
Land prices by region
(Percentage change from previous period)
2005
2007
2006
Annual Annual Annual
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
May
Jun
Jul
Aug Jan-Aug
Nationwide
4.98
5.61
3.88
0.96
0.79
0.91
1.15
1.23
1.46
0.48
0.47
0.42
0.42
3.59
Seoul
6.56
9.17
5.88
1.38
1.07
1.40
1.90
1.83
2.17
0.71
0.66
0.59
0.58
5.28
Gyeonggi
5.69
5.07
4.22
1.07
0.89
1.05
1.14
1.28
1.57
0.54
0.51
0.47
0.46
3.85
South Chungcheong
8.32
5.54
2.02
0.46
0.41
0.42
0.71
0.75
0.83
0.27
0.29
0.31
0.32
2.24
Nationwide land transactions in August registered 174,612 land lots, down 28.7 percent from the previous month and 9.5 percent from a year earlier.
Land sales transactions 2004
(Monthly average, land lot, thousand) 2005
2006
2007
Annual Annual Annual Annual
2008 Aug
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Nationwide
218
248
237
208
193
216
190
237
269
248
244
245
175
Seoul
34
36
44
33
26
24
24
32
41
36
38
34
18
Gyeonggi
52
56
63
49
47
44
40
50
61
58
55
57
38
North Chungcheong
8
11
9
9
8
10
9
10
11
10
9
11
9
South Chungcheong
20
17
12
11
9
10
12
15
13
15
15
14
12
38
October 2008
12-4 Land and consumer prices since 1970s Source: Korea Land Corporation (land prices) & Korea National Statistical Office (consumer prices)
12-5 Land prices by region Source: Korea Land Corporation (land price trend)
12-6 Land trade volume Source: Korea Land Corporation (land trade trend)
Economic Bulletin
39
13. Composite indexes of business cycle indicators The cyclical indicator of coincident composite index, a barometer of current economic conditions, decreased for the seventh consecutive month in August with a decrease of 0.2 points from the previous month. Four out of all components of the index, i.e., the number of non-farm payroll employment, the value of construction completed, the wholesale & retail sales index, the volume of imports were up, while the mining and manufacturing production index (down 0.9%), the manufacturing operation ratio index (down 0.6%), the service production index (down 0.4%), and the domestic shipment index (down 0.5%) went down. Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (m-o-m, p) -0.3 (Mar 2008)
-0.4 (Apr)
-0.1 (May)
-0.5 (Jun)
-0.2 (Jul)
-0.2 (Aug)
The year-on-year leading composite index, which foresees the future economic conditions, went down for the ninth month in a row with a month-on-month decrease of 0.4 percentage points in August. Four out of all components of the index, i.e., the ratio of job openings to job seekers, the consumer expectations index, the capital goods imports, the spreads between long and short-term interest rates were up, while the composite stock price index and the value of construction orders received significantly declined. Six components of the leading composite index fell in Aug 2008 (m-o-m) Indicator of inventory cycle (-1.5%p), value of machinery orders received (-1.4%), value of construction orders received (-2.1%), composite stock price index (-5.6%), liquidity in the financial institutions (-0.7%), net barter terms of trade (-0.1%)
However, the leading composite index stayed at a similar level to the previous month. 12 month smoothed change in leading composite index (m-o-m, %p) -1.1 (Mar 2008)
-0.4 (Apr)
-0.5 (May)
-1.1 (Jun)
-1.1 (Jul)
-0.4 (Aug)
Leading composite index 113.8 (Mar 2008)
114.0 (Apr)
114.1 (May)
113.6 (Jun)
112.8 (Jul)
112.8 (Aug)
Apr
May
Jun1
Jul1
Aug1
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.2
0.2
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index
100.5
100.4
99.9
99.8
99.5
(m-o-m, p)
-0.4
-0.1
-0.5
-0.1
-0.2
Leading composite index (m-o-m, %)
0.2
0.1
-0.4
-0.6
0.0
12 month smoothed change in leading composite index (%)
2.8
2.3
1.2
0.1
-0.3
(m-o-m, %p)
-0.4
-0.5
-1.1
-1.1
-0.4
2008
Coincident composite index (m-o-m, %)
1. Preliminary
40
October 2008
13-1 Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index Source: Korea National Statistical Office
99.5
13-2 Leading composite index Source: Korea National Statistical Office
13-3 Coincident and leading composite indexes Source: Korea National Statistical Office
Economic Bulletin
41
Policy Issues Service PROGRESS II -The 2nd phase of the plan for advancing the service industry-
The Korean government announced “Service PROGRESS ll� in September, the second phase of the three-phase plan to renovate the Korean service industry. Service PROGRESS l was announced on April 28 and Service PROGRESS lll is due out in December this year. To press on with Service PROGRESS I, II, and III, an inter-ministry task force was formed with the Deputy Finance Minister as its head. Service PROGRESS ll is geared toward creating jobs, improving services for the public, and creating growth engines. By deregulating the service industry, the government aims to facilitate corporate investments and upgrade the service industry to an advanced level.
Employment service Private job placement agencies, mostly small in size, need to be specialized and enlarged to address disconnections between what job seekers crave versus what most job placement agencies offer. Price restrictions in place have been blamed for preventing private job placement services from growing bigger and being specialized. Government methods of job training assistance have also put a damper on free market competition. Moreover, the move to foster workforces well-suited to industry needs through Executive MBA programs (EMBA) has failed to drum up support from companies and educational institutions.
42
October 2008
In order to rejuvenate private job placement services, a legal and institutional groundwork will be laid to help employment service providers offer one-stop services ranging from preemployment services, job training to employee outsourcing. In addition, price regulations will be eased on fee-charging job placement agencies. The market function of job training services will be expanded. Job training grants will be paid out to offer job seekers a wider range of job training choices. The current job training support system will be diversified to factor in the actual cost of each job training course. Various educational institutions will be encouraged to take part in the key job training areas including welding and assembly. To promote EMBA programs, EMBA students will not be included in the number of enrolled students to relieve the burden on colleges of meeting the required teacher-to-student ratio. In addition, tax deductions on EMBA tuition fees for SMEs will be applied in a broader manner.
Broadcasting and telecommunications Various regulations have been put in place in the telecommunications and broadcasting sector for the sake of the fair process of public opinion formation and stable supply of telecommunications services. Business regulations in force include limits on the entry of large companies and newspaper publishers into the broadcasting business and those on vertical and horizontal mergers between broadcasting companies. Entry into the facilities-based telecommunications business has been limited under a strict licensing system and official approval has been required when telecommunications companies pursue another trade as a side business. These monolithic regulations have undermined investments and job creation in the telecommunications and broadcasting sector. As part of efforts to soften restrictions on the ownership of broadcasting facilities by large businesses and newspaper publishers, restrictions on the ownership of satellite broadcasting including satellite-based DMB will be scraped and a shareholding of up to 49 percent will be permitted in the case of land-based DMB. The ownership of cable and satellite broadcasting facilities by daily newspaper publishers will be raised from 33 percent to 49 percent. In addition, the foreign ownership of satellite broadcasting facilities will be boosted from 33 percent to 49 percent as well. Business restrictions on broadcasting will be streamlined. For example, restrictions will be eased on cable TV subscription fees by converting the current subscription fee approval system into a reporting one. The number of channels required of satellite-based TV broadcasting and cable TV will be scaled back from the current 17.
Economic Bulletin
43
Regulations will be mitigated on the entry of key telecom operators into their peripheral business. To this end, licensing standards will be simplified to a great degree to help telecom operators integrate segmented facilities-based telecommunications businesses, thereby delivering a wider range of services. In addition, leading telecom operators will find it easier to seek approval for their side businesses. For instance, seeking approval from the Korea Communications Commission will become an unnecessary procedure when key telecom operators want to branch out to communications equipment manufacturing, information & communications construction, and other telecom-related services.
Contents There is a need for upgrading the structure and practices of distribution in the content industry to promote the establishment of promising content companies and their growth. First of all, improvements to distribution practices need to be made to address continuing disputes between broadcasting companies and outside production companies over production costs and copyrights issues. When mobile and music content developers try to make a foray into the distribution market, they run into a lot of legal and realistic obstacles which discourage creating new distribution channels. As technology advances have made it easier to copy digital content, copyrights infringements and illegal filesharing and downloading have been rampant. Standards will be established to acknowledge the work of outside production companies. In addition, broadcasting companies and outside production companies will be called in to hammer out reasonable standards for estimating production costs. Restaurants such as coffee shops will be allowed to trade in music CDs. Copyright protection against illegal copying will be reinforced by offering users of copyrighted works “exclusive usage rights” to thwart copyright infringement by third parties.
Law The ceiling of less than 25 percent of a law firm’s net capital on its shareholdings in other law firms has been one of the regulations that prevent law firms from growing bigger and sophisticated. In addition, the notarization system has operated in such a rigid manner that new demands stemming from social changes have not been met flexibly. Regulations on the establishment of law firms will be eased. For instance, law firms will be permitted to open branches in counties and cities, and the ceiling on a law firm’s investments in other law firms will be relaxed. Electronic notarization systems will be
44
October 2008
adopted and small law firms with less than 1 billion won will be exempted from the duty of having the articles of association and minutes authorized.
IT and software services In order to give a makeover to the IT and software industry, an institutional foundation will be laid to help the industry shift away from the current manpower-centered management to a performance-based management style. Practices to restrict the location of software workstations to the neighborhoods of order placers will be revamped. Data centers, one of key IT facilities, will see their electricity bills decrease after obtaining the status of knowledge-based services providers for which lower electricity rates are applied.
Health and food As demand for healthcare services has continued to rise, the need for bringing vitality to the market is ever growing as well. However, regulations such as the Medical Services Law and the Health Insurance Law have made a dent in commercializing private healthcare services. Besides, the food service industry has been dominated by smallsized restaurants which have failed to either grow bigger or become one of chain restaurants, and are suffering from spikes in food costs. An institutional foundation will be laid to create markets for healthcare services. As part of efforts to fine-tune relevant laws and systems, the concepts and ranges of healthcare services will be stipulated in the law. A legal framework will be made to keep healthcare services from being categorized as unlicensed medical practices. Case studies on foreign practices will be conducted to explore ways to permit private insurance companies to provide health care services as a sideline. The food service industry will receive greater support. Putting food service providers on the list of the beneficiaries of the SME support program will be pursued to funnel biz start-up funds for SMEs and venture businesses into job-creating food service providers. The deadline for input VAT deductions on the purchase of agricultural products by food service providers will be extended from the end of 2008 to the end of 2010.
Overhaul of the professional service market Competition in the professional service market has been very limited owing to regulations on market entry and business activities. As a result, consumer dissatisfaction with the quality and prices of professional services has continued to grow. As the professional service market opens its door to the world, concerns of the
Economic Bulletin
45
encroachment of foreign giants upon the market have been raised. The pursuit of bigness and specialization is believed to be a lifeline for the professional service market to stay competitive. Zero-based reviews will be conducted on the overall system of providing professional services and ways to advance professional services will be examined to help the market fare better and provide customer-oriented services. Key considerations for preparing a plan to upgrade the professional service market are as follows: easing regulations on business boundaries and investments in other professional service providers; streamlining regulations on the relations between professional service providers and between legal entities and natural persons; improving consumer welfare through the disclosure of professional service charges. Teams of policy researchers will be tasked with carrying out studies on foreign countries’ professional service markets to help flesh out a government-level improvement plan and lay the legal and institutional foundations for the plan.
46
October 2008
Economic News Briefing
S. Korea and Russia strengthen cooperation South Korean President Lee Myung-bak met with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin during his state visit to Russia from 28 to 30 September, and agreed to upgrade the bilateral relations between South Korea and Russia to a strategic cooperative partnership. President Lee also issued a ten-point joint statement which contains a large-scale gas supply deal which would involve North Korea. In Lee’s Summit with his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev at the Kremlin in Moscow, the two leaders agreed to send Russian natural gas through a pipeline via North Korea to South Korea starting from 2015. Russia will send at least 7.5 million tons of natural gas annually for a period of 30 years through a pipeline linking Vladivostok in Russia to South Korea via North Korea, under a contract signed by the Korea Gas Corp. and Russia’s Gazprom. The volume of gas amounts to an estimated 20 percent of South Korea’s annual natural gas consumption. Upon issuing the joint statement, Lee and Medvedev signed a series of MOUs promoting bilateral cooperation across the board in economics, politics, diplomacy, security, defense, energy, aerospace, and polar development. In regard to the North Korean nuclear issue, President Lee expressed optimism about tripartite economic cooperation with Russia and North Korea, saying the two presidents had agreed to work together to promote the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and peace in Northeast Asia.
Economic Bulletin
47
FTSE upgrades S. Korea to developed market category South Korea’s stock markets have been promoted to “developed” country status from “advanced emerging” by the Financial Times Stock Market (FTSE) Group, which is expected to bring more foreign investment to the country. FTSE confirmed on September 18 that it has decided to include Korea in the list of developed world indexes in its annual review of market reclassification. The change will be effective from December 2009. The global index provider, which covers 47 stock exchanges in 48 countries, classifies markets into four categories–developed, advanced emerging, secondary emerging, and frontier markets. The FTSE global stock benchmark indexes are tracked by international funds mainly composed of European capital worth US$4 trillion. Classified as one of the seven advanced emerging markets, Korea has been on the watch list for possible upgrade to developed market status since September 2004. The Korean government has been keen on removing regulatory barriers relating to settlement, offexchange trading and foreign exchange, which contributed to the promotion. The Korean government expects that the upgrade will give an opportunity to global investors to re-evaluate Korea’s stock market and its blue chips, which have been relatively undervalued compared with other emerging market equities. The Korean stock market will see a net inflow of US$8 billion to US$16 billion effected by the promotion in the mid to long term after portfolio rebalancing, according to an estimate by the Korea Exchange.
The third phase of public sector reform announced The Korean government will promote competition in the gas distribution market and the broadcasting advertisement industry and sell stakes of the Korea District Heating Corp. and Korea Power Engineering, according to the third phase of the public sector reform plan released by the Ministry of Strategy and Finance (MOSF) on October 10. Under the plan, an additional 30 state-run companies will be privatized, merged, streamlined or closed down. It follows the first and second phases of the privatization plan announced in August covering some 79 firms, including state-owned Korea Development Bank scheduled for privatization by 2012. The government will maintain a 51 percent stake in the Korea District Heating Corp. but the rest of the stock will be sold after listing on the stock market. Korea Power Engineering and Korea Plant Service & Engineering will each sell a 40 percent stake in their companies by 2012. The Korea Housing Guarantee will be privatized, and the Grand Korea Leisure, which runs a casino, will sell its 49 percent stake by 2010 before an additional sale of the stake.
48
October 2008
Other major plans include opening up the gas distribution market, which is currently monopolized by the Korea Gas Corp., to private competitors from 2010. The government also said it will encourage competition by introducing a new strategy in the broadcasting advertisement industry, which is currently dominated by the Korea Broadcasting Advertising Corp., by stripping it of its exclusive rights to advertisements for private firms. KEPCO will also see its maintenance (operation and repair) handed over to the private sector. The government aims to enhance management efficiency of state-owned companies through restructuring their branches in provinces to cut down on the workforce. Meanwhile, a merger between the Korea Credit Guarantee Fund and Kibo Technology Fund will be decided by the end of this year reflecting financial market conditions.
Comprehensive real estate tax rates to be lowered The Korean government will ease the comprehensive real estate tax system by raising the eligibility level for exemption and lowering tax rates, announced the Ministry of Strategy and Finance (MOSF) on September 23. The government will raise the threshold of home prices subject to the tax to 900 million won from 600 million won, with the tax rates for residential purposes reduced to 0.5 to 1 percent from the current 1 to 3 percent. Tax rates on properties used for business purposes will also be cut to 0.5 to 0.7 percent from 0.6 to 1.6 percent. In addition, the tax assessment standards will be based on the “fair market value prices” of houses instead of the current “taxable house prices.” The revised tax bill will be submitted to the National Assembly for an approval by the end of this year. In the mid- and long term, the government will integrate the comprehensive property tax into the property tax.
S. Korea limits short selling Korea toughens rules on short selling as there has been a sharp rise in short selling activities amid continued unrest in the stock market triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis, announced the Financial Services Commission (FSC) on September 24. The measures follow recent similar moves in other countries. Under the new FSC rules, all stock investors are asked to verify their ability to settle short selling orders and be required to meet a higher level of collateral value for stock borrowing.
Economic Bulletin
49
The FSC invokes a 10-day cooling-off period if shorting of a certain stock exceeds a trading volume of 5 percent for 20 days on the main bourse and 3 percent for the junior Kosdaq market. The FSC also said it makes short selling and stock lending more transparent by toughening disclosure rules to provide more accurate information to investors. The measures take effect on October 20.
S. Korea to advance fund sales rules Starting next February, online-based companies and mutual savings firms are allowed to sell investment funds in South Korea. In addition, the Financial Services Commission (FSC) considers allowing individuals to offer investment advisory service. South Korea will also strengthen investor protection rules for fund sellers to instruct customers of risks of an investment, as well as its commissions and fees, said the FSC in a statement released on September 26. It will introduce measures such as a “Contingent Deferred Sales Charge (CDSC)� to cut sales fees for long-term investors and further encourage competition in the market.
The level of satisfaction runs high for expatriates in S. Korea According to a survey by the Korea Trade Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA) of foreign executives living in Korea, about 76.5 percent of respondents said that they are satisfied with the Korean business environment. The survey showed that the foreign executives in Korea think there have been improvements in language and communications, a reduction in bureaucratic red tape, and greater corporate transparency. Some 44.8 percent said that they believe the business environment will improve for the coming three years, while only 21 percent thought it would worsen. The amount of foreign investment into Korea is expected to increase in coming years as 40.6 percent of respondents answered that they would expand investments in the Korean market.
50
October 2008
Statistical Appendices Tables & Figures 1. National accounts 2. Production, shipment and inventory 3. Production capacity and operation ratio 4. Consumer goods sales index 5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment, and estimated facility investment index 7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received 8. Composite indexes of business cycle indicators and BSI 9. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment and earnings 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates
Economic Bulletin
51
1. National accounts (year-on-year change, %, 2000 constant prices) Real GDP Period
Gross fixed capital formation
Final consumption expenditure
Agri., fores. & fisheries
Manufacturing
1.2
17.0
7.1
Construction
Facilities
12.2
-0.8
33.6 -9.0
2000
8.5
2001
3.8
1.1
2.2
4.9
-0.2
6.0
2002
7.0
-3.5
7.6
7.6
6.6
5.3
7.5
2003
3.1
-5.3
5.5
-0.3
4.0
7.9
-1.2
2004
4.7
9.2
11.1
0.4
2.1
1.1
3.8
2005
4.2
0.7
7.1
3.9
2.4
-0.2
5.7
2006
5.0
-1.5
8.5
4.8
3.6
-0.1
7.8
2007P
5.0
1.1
6.5
4.7
4.0
1.2
7.6
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007P
2008P
I
6.5
6.7
5.2
9.4
7.7
11.0
3.3
II
7.0
-2.7
6.2
8.5
7.3
6.0
8.0
III
6.8
-3.2
7.4
7.3
2.4
-2.4
9.1
IV
7.5
-5.5
11.4
5.3
9.1
8.4
9.6
I
3.8
-3.3
5.8
1.2
4.7
7.7
2.3
II
2.2
0.5
3.3
-0.6
4.2
7.9
-0.4
III
2.3
-7.8
4.2
-1.0
2.7
7.7
-4.6
IV
4.1
-6.9
8.6
-0.9
4.3
8.3
-2.0
I
5.4
10.1
11.9
-0.4
2.4
4.9
-0.1
II
5.7
4.2
13.6
0.7
4.7
3.8
6.4
III
4.7
4.3
11.7
0.1
2.9
1.0
6.8
IV
3.3
13.3
7.7
1.3
-1.1
-3.3
2.4
I
2.9
-0.1
5.4
2.0
0.5
-3.3
3.8
II
3.4
3.1
5.1
3.9
2.1
1.1
3.1
III
4.8
1.9
7.5
4.8
2.2
-0.1
5.0
IV
5.5
-0.5
10.1
4.9
4.3
0.4
10.8
I
6.3
2.8
10.1
5.4
4.2
1.1
7.1
II
5.2
-2.2
9.6
4.6
0.2
-5.3
7.5
III
5.0
-4.1
9.0
4.7
5.1
0.2
11.4
IV
4.2
-0.9
5.6
4.6
4.9
3.6
5.4
I
4.0
5.8
3.8
4.5
7.2
3.7
10.9
II
4.9
1.1
6.1
4.9
5.5
1.6
11.0
III
5.1
3.5
6.3
4.7
1.3
-0.1
2.3
IV
5.7
-0.7
9.5
4.8
2.9
0.4
6.5
I
5.8
2.0
9.3
3.5
0.5
-1.1
1.4
II
4.8
4.4
8.5
2.7
0.1
-1.2
0.7
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
52
October 2008
Growth rate by economic activity
Growth rate by expenditure on GDP
Economic Bulletin
53
2. Production, shipment and inventory See graphs 6-1, 6-3, 7-1, 7-2 & 7-3 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
Production index
2006 2007
Y-o-Y change (%)
Shipment index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Inventory index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Service production index
Y-o-Y change (%)
108.4 115.8
8.4 6.8
107.6 115.2
7.6 7.1
110.8 117.2
9.3 5.7
105.5 112.3
5.5 6.4
2006
I II III IV
105.3 108.1 106.4 113.8
10.5 9.0 9.9 4.8
104.2 107.6 106.0 112.8
8.8 8.1 9.4 4.5
108.6 110.0 109.5 111.0
9.3 11.7 11.1 9.3
101.5 105.0 105.2 110.4
6.4 6.0 4.7 5.1
2007
I II III IV
109.5 114.8 112.7 126.1
4.0 6.2 5.9 10.8
109.5 115.0 111.7 124.5
5.1 6.9 5.4 10.4
114.0 114.3 112.4 117.3
5.0 3.9 2.6 5.7
107.0 111.4 112.8 117.9
5.4 6.1 7.2 6.8
2008
I II
121.1 124.7
10.6 8.6
119.2 122.4
8.9 6.4
124.3 132.5
9.0 15.9
113.8 116.5
6.4 4.6
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
103.8 100.4 111.8 107.0 109.5 107.9 99.8 104.3 115.0 110.8 118.5 112.0
5.6 18.7 8.6 7.8 9.8 9.3 1.5 10.0 17.9 4.8 7.0 2.1
101.8 99.7 111.1 106.6 108.8 107.5 98.5 104.8 114.6 109.3 117.0 112.0
4.2 15.7 7.3 6.8 9.9 7.9 1.0 9.5 17.5 4.1 6.9 2.6
107.0 106.6 108.6 107.5 110.1 110.0 112.5 109.6 109.5 109.6 110.2 111.0
4.6 6.8 9.3 7.0 7.6 11.7 11.6 11.8 11.1 11.2 10.6 9.3
101.8 96.8 106.0 104.3 106.3 104.3 102.4 105.0 108.3 106.0 108.7 116.4
7.0 6.4 6.0 6.5 6.4 4.7 2.3 5.1 6.7 3.9 5.7 5.6
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
112.7 100.2 115.5 113.6 115.7 115.0 113.3 113.5 111.4 128.4 127.5 122.5
8.6 -0.2 3.3 6.2 5.7 6.6 13.5 8.8 -3.1 15.9 7.6 9.4
110.2 101.6 116.7 114.4 115.9 114.8 112.4 112.3 110.4 126.1 125.9 121.6
8.3 1.9 5.0 7.3 6.6 6.8 14.1 7.2 -3.7 15.4 7.6 8.6
118.5 115.5 114.0 111.8 114.1 114.3 115.3 115.3 112.4 114.7 114.9 117.3
10.7 8.3 5.0 4.0 3.6 3.9 2.5 5.2 2.6 4.7 4.3 5.7
106.1 103.2 111.7 109.6 112.2 112.3 112.2 113.1 113.0 115.1 115.6 123.1
4.2 6.6 5.4 5.1 5.6 7.7 9.6 7.7 4.3 8.6 6.3 5.8
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P
125.3 110.5 127.4 125.7 125.7 122.6 123.1 115.6
11.2 10.3 10.3 10.7 8.6 6.6 8.6 1.9
121.2 109.4 126.9 124.1 123.1 119.8 121.6 114.5
10.0 7.7 8.7 8.5 6.2 4.4 8.2 2.0
124.0 124.6 124.3 125.2 129.1 133.2 132.4 131.9
4.6 7.9 9.0 12.0 13.1 16.5 14.8 14.4
114.0 109.3 118.1 116.2 117.6 115.6 116.6 114.9
7.4 5.9 5.7 6.0 4.8 2.9 3.9 1.6
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
54
October 2008
3. Production capacity and operation ratio See graph 6-2
Period
2006 2007
Y-o-Y change (%)
Operation ratio index (2005=100)
Y-o-Y change (%)
Average operation ratio (%)
104.1 109.5
4.1 5.2
100.3 100.5
0.3 0.2
80.0 80.3
Production capacity index (2005=100)
2006
I II III IV
102.9 103.6 104.0 105.8
4.8 4.2 3.7 3.6
99.3 101.9 97.9 102.0
2.4 0.9 1.3 -3.2
81.0 79.6 79.1 80.3
2007
I II III IV
107.3 108.2 110.0 112.5
4.3 4.4 5.8 6.3
97.3 102.8 96.3 105.6
-2.0 0.9 -1.6 3.5
79.4 80.7 80.0 81.0
2008
I II
113.6 114.9
5.9 6.2
99.0 102.6
1.7 -0.2
81.1 81.0
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
102.7 102.8 103.3 103.3 103.8 103.8 103.7 103.9 104.4 105.4 105.8 106.1
4.9 4.8 4.9 4.3 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5
97.3 95.0 105.6 100.8 103.0 101.8 91.6 95.3 106.9 99.8 107.3 98.8
-3.4 11.5 0.4 -0.8 2.1 1.3 -7.5 1.2 10.8 -4.5 -0.6 -4.6
82.1 80.4 80.6 79.4 79.1 80.2 75.0 80.1 82.1 81.4 80.7 78.8
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.1 107.3 107.6 107.7 108.1 108.7 109.4 110.0 110.6 112.2 112.4 112.8
4.3 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.7 5.5 5.9 5.9 6.5 6.2 6.3
98.8 88.4 103.7 101.6 104.0 102.7 98.4 96.6 93.8 109.4 107.4 99.9
2.6 -6.9 -1.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 7.4 1.4 -12.3 9.6 0.1 1.1
79.1 79.7 79.3 80.1 81.0 80.9 80.5 81.0 78.6 81.6 80.6 80.9
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P
113.5 113.4 113.9 114.3 115.0 115.3 115.3 115.3
6.0 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.4 6.1 5.4 4.8
103.0 89.3 104.6 104.1 103.0 100.9 100.2 92.7
3.2 1.0 0.9 2.5 -1.0 -1.8 1.8 -4.0
81.8 80.3 81.1 82.2 80.3 80.5 79.7 78.8
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
Economic Bulletin
55
4. Consumer goods sales index See graphs 2-2, 2-3, 2-4 & 2-5 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
2006 2007
Consumer goods sales index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Y-o-Y change (%)
Semi-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
104.1 109.6
4.1 5.3
111.2 123.4
11.2 11.0
103.0 106.0
3.0 2.9
101.7 105.5
1.7 3.7
2006
I II III IV
100.9 104.2 100.3 110.8
4.7 5.6 3.1 3.0
102.0 110.2 113.2 119.4
13.8 11.8 11.7 8.1
96.9 105.1 90.7 119.2
3.7 3.4 2.7 2.2
102.2 101.4 99.1 103.9
1.8 3.9 -0.2 1.2
2007
I II III IV
106.7 108.6 107.4 115.8
5.7 4.2 7.1 4.5
118.0 123.6 124.6 127.6
15.7 12.2 10.1 6.9
100.4 107.4 93.6 122.7
3.6 2.2 3.2 2.9
104.6 103.1 106.1 108.1
2.3 1.7 7.1 4.0
2008
I Il
110.9 111.3
3.9 2.5
127.7 133.0
8.2 7.6
105.8 105.7
5.4 -1.6
106.2 104.8
1.5 1.6
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
105.1 93.6 104.1 102.8 106.0 103.9 96.8 98.4 105.8 106.4 109.7 116.4
9.5 0.5 3.9 5.0 6.1 5.7 -0.6 4.7 5.3 4.2 3.6 1.5
97.1 99.1 110.0 105.7 110.1 114.7 107.3 112.9 119.4 110.8 122.3 125.2
9.0 20.0 13.3 9.9 11.9 13.3 -2.3 13.0 26.6 8.8 10.6 5.1
98.2 90.7 102.0 107.8 110.0 97.6 91.3 79.5 101.3 111.3 119.2 127.2
4.4 3.0 4.2 3.8 4.1 2.4 1.9 3.0 3.2 -1.5 4.7 3.2
111.2 92.6 102.7 99.6 102.7 102.0 94.8 100.4 102.2 102.7 100.7 108.4
11.8 -6.8 0.3 3.5 4.6 3.8 -0.7 1.9 -1.7 5.0 0.0 -1.0
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
106.2 103.5 110.3 106.9 111.5 107.5 105.4 104.1 112.6 113.4 114.5 119.4
1.0 10.6 6.0 4.0 5.2 3.5 8.9 5.8 6.4 6.6 4.4 2.6
117.3 109.7 126.8 119.5 125.7 125.7 128.9 125.4 119.4 121.6 129.3 131.9
20.8 10.7 15.3 13.1 14.2 9.6 20.1 11.1 0.0 9.7 5.7 5.4
98.9 95.1 107.3 108.7 112.5 101.0 93.8 81.4 105.5 117.3 122.5 128.3
0.7 4.9 5.2 0.8 2.3 3.5 2.7 2.4 4.1 5.4 2.8 0.9
104.7 104.4 104.8 101.0 105.4 102.8 100.7 104.8 112.8 108.4 105.3 110.7
-5.8 12.7 2.0 1.4 2.6 0.8 6.2 4.4 10.4 5.6 4.6 2.1
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P
111.1 106.5 115.1 112.7 114.8 106.4 109.5 105.7
4.6 2.9 4.4 5.4 3.0 -1.0 3.9 1.5
125.9 116.1 141.0 137.6 135.4 126.1 138.1 120.5
7.3 5.8 11.2 15.1 7.7 0.3 7.2 -3.9
107.8 100.9 108.6 107.4 109.5 100.1 97.4 89.1
9.0 6.1 1.2 -1.2 -2.7 -0.9 3.9 9.5
106.4 104.9 107.3 104.8 108.6 100.9 102.7 106.5
1.6 0.5 2.4 3.8 3.0 -1.8 2.0 1.6
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
56
Durable goods
October 2008
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index See graph 2-6
Period
2006 2007
Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2005=100) Y-o-Y change (%)
Consumer sentiment index Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Present Expectations situation index index
106.6 112.7
6.6 5.7
110.4 124.7
10.4 13.0
105.0 107.9
5.0 2.8
-
-
2006
I II III IV
102.5 103.0 108.7 112.1
7.7 6.6 8.1 4.2
101.9 106.5 112.4 120.8
13.6 9.7 11.5 7.5
102.7 101.6 107.2 108.6
5.3 5.4 6.7 2.8
-
-
2007
I II III IV
110.6 110.8 111.2 118.3
7.9 7.6 2.3 5.5
119.3 122.6 123.2 133.8
17.1 15.1 9.6 10.8
107.2 106.0 106.3 112.2
4.4 4.3 -0.8 3.3
-
-
2008
I II
117.3 116.7
6.1 5.3
133.9 138.2
12.2 12.7
110.6 108.1
3.2 2.0
-
-
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
103.4 96.6 107.4 101.4 103.9 103.6 99.7 106.5 119.8 108.8 114.4 113.1
3.7 12.5 7.3 5.6 7.9 6.3 1.5 5.4 16.8 2.8 6.8 3.0
96.8 99.0 110.0 100.3 106.0 113.3 100.6 109.7 126.8 116.7 123.5 122.2
7.8 21.8 12.2 6.9 10.0 12.0 -3.8 11.5 27.6 6.7 8.9 6.8
106.0 95.7 106.3 101.9 103.1 99.7 99.4 105.2 116.9 105.6 110.8 109.5
2.2 9.0 5.4 5.2 7.1 3.9 4.0 3.1 12.6 1.2 5.9 1.4
104.5 103.8 103.4 100.6 98.0 97.4 94.3 93.7 94.8 93.9 95.2 93.7
88.4 89.0 90.1 87.2 83.0 81.9 78.7 77.8 78.9 80.7 77.3 77.1
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
114.3 103.8 113.8 111.2 112.7 108.4 109.6 112.6 111.3 121.4 117.2 116.4
10.5 7.5 6.0 9.7 8.5 4.6 9.9 5.7 -7.1 11.6 2.4 2.9
117.3 112.9 127.6 119.5 125.5 122.7 124.5 124.5 120.7 137.0 132.8 131.5
21.2 14.0 16.0 19.1 18.4 8.3 23.8 13.5 -4.8 17.4 7.5 7.6
113.1 100.1 108.3 107.9 107.5 102.6 103.6 107.8 107.6 115.2 111.0 110.3
6.7 4.6 1.9 5.9 4.3 2.9 4.2 2.5 -8.0 9.1 0.2 0.7
96.1 98.1 97.8 100.1 101.1 101.5 102.6 103.0 103.2 103.3 102.0 104.0
79.3 82.3 83.3 87.4 89.6 90.4 91.4 91.4 92.0 92.5 88.0 85.1
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
124.2 106.6 121.0 120.5 116.9 112.7 119.3P 112.4P
8.7 2.7 6.3 8.4 3.7 4.0 8.9P -0.2P
132.8 123.5 145.3 145.5 138.7 130.6 138.3P 121.4P
13.2 9.4 13.9 21.8 10.5 6.4 11.1P -2.5P
120.8 99.8 111.2 110.5 108.1 105.5 111.7P 108.8P
6.8 -0.3 2.7 2.4 0.6 2.8 7.8P 0.9P
105.9 103.1 99.7 100.4 92.2 86.8 84.6 91.2
82.7 81.8 76.4 80.0 72.2 61.3 59.2 68.4
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
Economic Bulletin
57
6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment and estimated facility investment index See graph 3-2 Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant prices) Period
2007
Domestic machinery shipment excluding ship (2005=100)
Total
Public
Private
34,143
2,205
31,938
17,424
126.5
114.0
Manufacturing
2007
I II III IV
8,145 7,849 8,139 10,012
342 292 484 1,087
7,803 7,556 7,655 8,924
3,873 3,825 4,257 5,470
127.0 130.7 118.2 130.0
109.8 119.3 106.3 120.5
2008
I ll
10,197 8,541
372 536
9,825 8,005
5,429 3,667
125.9 130.8
111.2 120.2
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2,639 2,812 2,694 2,473 2,598 2,778 2,613 2,425 3,101 3,735 3,234 3,043
89 150 103 94 91 107 170 128 186 89 217 781
2,550 2,661 2,591 2,378 2,506 2,671 2,442 2,297 2,916 3,646 3,017 2,262
1,294 1,390 1,189 1,220 1,204 1,401 1,239 1,115 1,902 2,481 1,846 1,144
121.6 120.3 139.1 137.2 130.0 125.1 120.1 122.4 112.1 121.8 129.2 139.0
103.9 102.2 123.3 114.0 122.5 121.4 111.0 104.9 102.9 112.9 120.0 128.6
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P
3,810 3,044 3,343 2,914 2,675 2,952 3,153 2,384
149 68 155 95 90 351 179 97
2,197 1,723 1,510 1,302 1,101 1,264 1,392 1,129
119.4 118.0 140.3 134.6 127.3 130.5 132.0 124.4
105.7 102.6 125.2 119.3 121.8 119.4 119.0 107.3
21.1
-11.2
24.2
31.9
8.6
2.9
2007
3,661 2,976 3,188 2,819 2,585 2,601 2,974 2,288 Y-o-Y change (%)
2007
I II III IV
18.9 7.1 19.1 39.3
13.9 -47.7 -26.9 12.9
19.1 11.6 24.0 43.4
13.2 7.7 37.6 74.4
12.8 11.9 0.7 9.2
5.9 2.4 -1.7 4.8
2008
I ll
25.2 8.8
8.8 83.4
25.9 5.9
40.2 -4.1
-0.9 0.1
1.3 0.8
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
29.2 20.0 9.3 3.3 15.6 3.3 35.3 5.1 19.5 42.5 46.7 28.8
5.8 53.6 -13.1 -0.3 -3.0 -71.1 117.5 -46.7 -45.9 -85.1 174.0 174.9
30.2 18.5 10.5 3.4 16.5 15.2 31.8 11.1 29.4 80.3 42.0 8.8
34.7 17.0 -6.6 -0.8 11.6 12.7 41.1 9.4 59.0 140.5 81.9 4.9
18.6 14.5 6.9 15.6 8.8 11.3 2.2 3.5 -3.7 7.0 10.4 10.1
8.9 3.7 5.3 3.3 0.1 3.9 9.5 -2.0 -11.1 8.2 3.4 3.2
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P
44.4 8.3 24.1 17.9 3.0 6.3 20.7 -1.7
67.8 -54.7 50.6 1.3 -1.5 228.1 5.3 -24.3
43.5 11.8 23.0 18.5 3.1 -2.6 21.8 -0.4
69.8 23.9 27.0 6.8 -8.6 -9.8 12.3 1.2
-1.8 -1.9 0.9 -1.9 -2.1 4.4 9.9 1.6
1.7 0.4 1.5 4.6 -0.6 -1.6 7.2 2.3
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
58
Estimated facility investment index (2000=100)
October 2008
7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received See graphs 4-2 & 4-3 (current prices, billion won)
Period
2006 2007
Type of order
Type of order
Private
Domestic construction orders received (total)
Public
Private
23,159 25,096
52,148 54,476
91,001 108,559
20,460 27,454
66,550 75,285
Value of construction completed (total)
Public
77,839 82,950
2007
I II III IV
17,306 20,878 20,183 24,582
4,940 6,345 6,103 7,708
11,783 13,723 13,280 15,690
20,678 26,839 21,768 39.274
5,683 5,025 4,462 12,285
14,893 19,649 15,740 25,002
2008
I ll
18,314 22,238
5,279 6,570
12,128 14,377
19,868 25,193
6,820 5,961
12,661 18,499
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5,498 5,307 6,501 6,743 6,810 7,326 6,597 6,759 6,829 7,364 7,882 9,337
1,473 1,533 1,934 1,922 2,119 2,305 1,963 1,953 2,185 2,075 2,432 3,201
3,854 3,602 4,328 4,515 4,462 4,745 4,381 4,542 4,357 4,967 5,094 5,629
6,411 6,326 7,942 7,841 7,096 11,902 6,060 6,586 9,122 10,691 12,311 16,272
1,562 1,830 2,291 1,789 1,621 1,615 1,491 1,354 1,616 3,286 3,694 5,304
4,822 4,488 5,584 5,733 4,891 9,025 3,685 4,874 7,181 7,094 7,792 10,117
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P
6,090 5,480 6,745 7,033 7,336 7,869 7,269 7,433
1,721 1,519 2,040 1,967 2,224 2,379 2,031 2,120
5,570 5,931 8,367 7,646 8,432 9,115 5,274 6,084
1,619 1,894 3,306 1,715 2,474 1,772 1,360 1,505
3,904 3,820 4,937 5,745 5,780 6,973 3,386 4,363
2.6 6.6
0.6 8.4
4.0 4.5
9.0 19.3
-6.3 34.2
12.8 13.1
2006 2007
4,074 3,692 4,362 4,627 4,732 5,018 4,825 4,864 Y-o-Y change (%)
2007
I II III IV
7.9 6.0 4.4 8.0
21.1 12.2 3.0 2.8
3.1 2.3 3.6 8.4
26.3 26.3 -5.6 29.5
49.3 21.2 7.3 47.2
21.8 17.0 -12.9 28.6
2008
I ll
5.8 6.5
6.9 3.5
2.9 4.8
-3.9 -6.1
20.0 18.6
-15.0 -5.9
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
12.9 9.1 3.0 7.0 6.2 4.9 13.2 8.6 -6.3 8.8 5.9 9.2
18.1 27.0 19.0 8.4 16.4 11.9 14.9 5.0 -7.3 -4.6 8.8 3.7
11.3 3.1 -3.3 4.0 1.7 1.2 10.6 8.2 -6.5 13.0 2.8 9.8
9.7 40.1 32.0 48.9 5.2 28.8 -14.9 13.4 -9.8 103.8 36.3 1.4
73.4 20.5 65.0 45.5 15.6 6.6 51.1 72.5 -32.3 104.2 32.1 34.6
0.3 55.1 23.4 43.6 -6.8 19.4 -38.8 6.0 -3.7 102.5 27.7 2.8
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P
10.8 3.3 3.8 4.3 7.7 7.4 10.2 10.0
16.8 -1.0 5.5 2.4 5.0 3.2 3.5 8.5
5.7 2.5 0.8 2.5 6.1 5.7 10.1 7.1
-13.1 -6.2 5.3 -2.5 18.8 -23.4 -13.0 -7.6
3.6 3.5 44.3 -4.1 52.6 9.7 -8.8 11.2
-19.0 -14.9 -11.6 0.2 18.2 -22.7 -8.1 -10.5
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
Economic Bulletin
59
8. Composite indexes of business cycle indicators and BSI See graphs 13-1, 13-2 & 13-3
Y-o-Y change (%)
Coincident index (2005=100)
Cycle of coincident index (2005=100)
BSI (actual)
BSI (outlook)
104.1
6.7
104.0
100.3
95.4
102.6
2
104.1
6.3
104.2
100.0
90.5
102.4
3
104.1
5.7
104.7
100.1
111.5
118.9
4
104.2
5.3
104.9
99.9
99.8
112.7
5
104.4
5.0
105.3
99.9
94.1
110.7
6
104.7
4.7
105.6
99.7
94.2
98.6
7
104.8
4.1
105.1
98.8
79.1
94.2
8
105.2
3.9
105.6
98.9
85.9
93.4
9
106.0
4.3
106.5
99.3
99.4
107.7
10
106.9
4.7
108.3
100.6
99.4
103.5
11
107.6
5.0
109.1
100.9
103.7
104.3
12
108.0
4.9
109.3
100.6
100.4
101.4
2007 1
108.5
5.0
109.4
100.3
85.6
96.5
2
109.3
5.4
109.8
100.2
87.5
93.4
3
109.7
5.4
110.2
100.2
109.4
112.3
4
110.5
5.7
110.8
100.3
105.8
107.7
5
110.8
5.6
111.4
100.3
104.1
110.9
6
111.7
6.1
112.2
100.6
100.2
105.6
7
112.5
6.5
113.0
100.9
95.8
99.3
8
113.3
6.8
113.6
101.1
94.4
102.5
9
114.0
6.9
113.7
100.7
101.5
111.8
10
114.8
7.2
114.3
100.8
108.3
116.3
11
115.5
7.3
114.8
100.8
106.0
112.4
12
115.8
7.0
115.8
101.2
98.9
103.4
2008 1
115.1
5.7
116.6
101.5
95.2
103.0
2
114.3
4.3
116.7
101.2
95.6
94.8
3
113.8
3.2
116.9
100.9
101.1
102.1
4
114.0
2.8
116.9
100.5
101.7
98.1
5
114.1
2.3
117.3
100.4
98.1
104.7
6
113.6P
1.2P
117.3
99.9
79.1
95.3
7
112.8P
0.1P
117.5P
99.7P
80.8
83.2
8
112.8P
-0.3P
117.7P
99.5P
83.1
80.8
9
-
-
-
-
76.8
98.3
10
-
-
-
-
-
84.9
Period
Leading index (2005=100)
2006 1
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office & The Federation of Korean Industries
60
October 2008
9. Balance of payments (I) See graphs 5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 10-1 & 10-2 (million US$)
Period
2004 2005 2006 2007P
Current balance
Goods trade balance
Exports
28,173.5 14,980.9 5,385.2 5,954.3
37,568.8 32,683.1 27,905.1 29,409.4
Imports
Services trade balance
Income trade balance
Current transfers
253,844.7 284,418.7 325,464.8 371,489.1
224,462.7 261,238.3 309,382.6 356,845.7
-8,046.1 -13,658.2 -18,960.7 -20,574.9
1,082.8 -1,562.5 533.7 768.5
-2,432.0 -2,481.5 -4,092.9 -3,648.7
2005
I II III IV
5,263.5 2,352.1 2,198.2 5,167.1
8,750.5 8,365.8 7,234.8 8,332.0
66,807.6 69,702.8 71,097.7 76,810.7
60,626.8 63,694.9 66,228.3 70,688.3
-3,114.4 -3,368.7 -4,254.6 -2,920.5
166.4 -1,948.8 -97.3 317.2
-539.0 -696.2 -684.7 -561.6
2006
I II III IV
-1,977.6 235.0 1,016.9 6,110.9
4,682.7 7,109.8 6,230.9 9,881.7
73,884.9 81,473.4 82,712.8 87,393.7
72,542.1 76,719.7 80,215.8 79,905.1
-5,084.8 -4,200.8 -5,340.1 -4,335.0
-519.6 -1,356.9 1,148.3 1,261.9
-1,055.9 -1,317.1 -1,022.2 -697.7
2007P
I II III IV
-1,662.2 34.4 4,430.2 3,151.9
6,037.9 6,970.2 9,676.2 6,725.1
84,703.5 92,984.5 90,529.1 103,272.0
82,261.7 87,961.9 86,058.8 100,563.3
-6,180.1 -4,395.3 -5,884.1 -4,115.4
-689.6 -1,543.1 1,663.8 1,337.4
-830.4 -997.4 -1,025.7 -795.2
2008P
I II
-5,212.6 -134.4
-1,219.8 5,722.7
99,467.7 114,536.0
105,937.5 114,410.3
-5,067.2 -4,272.7
1,688.1 -645.6
-613.7 -938.8
2006
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-273.5 -1,217.8 -486.3 -1,978.8 782.8 1,431.0 -226.2 -734.2 1,977.3 1,776.0 4,270.7 64.2
1,143.9 681.3 2,857.5 1,639.0 2,240.9 3,229.9 1,553.5 1,330.3 3,347.1 2,627.4 5,550.9 1,703.4
23,257.9 23,787.0 26,840.1 25,590.1 27,934.5 27,948.8 25,774.4 27,287.2 29,651.2 28,015.9 30,602.3 28,775.4
23,089.3 23,507.8 25,945.0 24,485.8 26,210.4 26,023.5 25,549.7 27,029.5 27,636.6 25,621.8 26,765.1 27,518.2
-1,797.8 -1,849.4 -1,437.6 -1,537.7 -1,340.5 -1,322.6 -1,716.2 -2,141.4 -1,482.5 -1,139.2 -1,457.0 -1,738.8
613.2 326.9 -1,459.7 -1,700.5 301.9 41.7 237.5 296.4 614.4 500.1 448.2 313.6
-232.8 -376.6 -446.5 -379.6 -419.5 -518.0 -301.0 -219.5 -501.7 -212.3 -271.4 -214.0
2007P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-428.1 402.1 -1,636.2 -2,078.1 839.1 1,273.4 1,552.3 573.7 2,304.2 2,461.1 1,504.6 -813.8
1,292.1 2,387.3 2,358.5 1,519.5 2,239.0 3,211.7 3,044.1 2,906.4 3,725.7 3,638.0 2,643.7 443.4
28,092.6 26,225.1 30,385.8 29,944.4 31,039.9 32,000.1 30,207.4 30,998.1 29,323.5 34,433.8 35,807.9 33,030.3
27,560.1 25,406.2 29,295.5 29,596.9 29,856.9 28,508.1 29,223.2 29,642.1 27,193.6 32,741.2 33,926.1 33,895.9
-1,943.4 -2,551.1 -1,685.6 -1,396.1 -1,483.2 -1,516.0 -1,688.2 -2,445.2 -1,750.7 -1,416.5 -1,458.9 -1,240.0
547.1 850.7 -2,087.4 -2,001.5 461.6 -3.2 533.5 444.3 686.0 502.9 422.8 411.7
-323.9 -284.8 -221.7 -200.0 -378.3 -419.1 -337.1 -331.8 -356.8 -263.3 -103.0 -428.9
2008P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
-2,751.3 -2,350.7 -110.6 -1,581.3 -377.5 1824.4 -2,534.0 -4,709.0
-1,095.2 -599.1 474.5 1,632.3 612.5 3477.9 217.6 -2,816.0
32,282.4 31,180.5 36,001.5 37,855.8 39,401.9 37,284.4 41,005.7 36,788.9
36,290.3 32,595.6 37,072.9 38,194.5 38,575.9 37,790.7 43,024.5 40,601.0
-2,138.1 -2,249.6 -679.5 -979.8 -1,167.4 -2,126.3 -2,456.0 -2,000.1
768.0 700.7 219.4 -1,932.0 459.2 827.2 239.6 324.8
-286.0 -202.7 -125.0 -302.6 -281.8 -354.4 -535.2 -217.5
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea & Korea Customs Service
Economic Bulletin
61
10. Balance of payments (II) See graph 10-3 (million US$)
Period
Capital & financial account
Direct investment
2004 2005 2006 2007P
7,598.8 4,756.5 17,972.0 6,232.3
Changes in reserve assets
Errors and omissions
Portfolio investment
Other investment
Capital transfers & acquisition of non-financial assets
4,588.3 2,010.4 -4,540.4 -13,696.7
8,619.3 -1,728.2 -22,745.6 -19,093.3
-3,856.0 6,814.7 48,384.1 41,411.9
-1,752.8 -2,340.4 -3,126.1 -2,389.6
-38,710.5 -19,805.8 -22,112.9 -15,128.2
2,938.2 68.4 -1,244.3 2,941.6
2005
I II III IV
4,141.5 2,257.6 -504.3 -1,138.3
-194.0 1,249.7 48.8 905.9
-1,278.2 -2,575.3 -147.5 2,272.8
6,125.5 4,247.5 256.8 -3,815.1
-511.8 -664.3 -662.4 -501.9
-9,513.7 -2,817.2 -2,300.1 -5,174.8
108.7 -1,792.5 606.2 1,146.0
2006
I II III IV
6,824.8 3,319.1 3,754.1 4,074.0
-1,062.3 -30.9 -3,856.2 409.0
1,847.1 -14,079.6 -7,703.3 -2,809.8
6,787.0 18,255.2 15,978.3 7,363.6
-747.0 -825.6 -664.7 -888.8
-5,679.3 -4,315.9 -3,688.8 -8,428.9
832.1 761.8 -1,082.2 -1,756.0
2007P I II III IV
5,313.6 6,442.1 -3,326.5 -2,196.9
-959.8 -2,867.7 -2,445.6 -7,423.6
-10,492.9 -27.2 -9,169.6 596.4
17,580.4 10,023.0 8,858.8 4,949.7
-814.1 -686.0 -570.1 -319.4
-3,998.3 -6,250.1 -2,495.6 -2,384.2
346.9 -226.4 1,391.9 1,429.2
2008P I ll
395.9 -5,629.2
-4,790.6 -2,913.5
-11,065.6 5,191.4
16,489.7 -7,674.1
-237.6 -233.0
3,850.0 5,717.7
966.7 45.9
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
4,082.2 1,594.0 1,148.6 4,639.6 391.0 -1,711.5 1,767.1 1,410.5 576.5 -940.2 -524.0 5,538.2
-504.9 137.3 -694.7 328.5 -105.2 -254.2 -174.9 -671.6 -3,009.7 -131.6 -38.9 579.5
692.7 2,404.0 -1,249.6 -3,099.7 -7,937.6 -3,042.3 -3,899.6 -4,470.4 666.7 -678.3 -827.2 -1,304.3
4,124.2 -695.4 3,358.2 7,714.2 8,680.4 1,860.6 6,123.2 6,719.8 3,135.3 137.1 671.9 6,554.6
-229.8 -251.9 -265.3 -303.4 -246.6 -275.6 -281.6 -167.3 -215.8 -267.4 -329.8 -291.6
-5,432.6 140.7 -387.4 -3,354.8 -495.6 -465.5 -686.0 -959.7 -2,043.1 -933.1 -2,677.2 -4,818.6
1,623.9 -516.9 -274.9 694.0 -678.2 746.0 -854.9 283.4 -510.7 97.3 -1,069.5 -783.8
2007P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2,078.9 -404.0 3,638.7 4,203.3 3,597.1 -1,358.3 537.1 -304.8 -3,558.8 -1,912.9 -1,498.6 1,214.6
-208.9 -687.6 -63.3 -388.2 -311.3 -2,168.2 -3.0 -1,372.5 -1,070.1 -4,439.9 -1,726.1 -1,257.6
-1,411.2 -1,940.7 -7,141.0 3,808.0 529.6 -4,364.8 -6,925.0 -5,973.7 3,729.1 154.3 -2,901.5 3,343.6
4,054.0 2,427.6 11,098.8 1,029.3 3,613.2 5,380.5 7,692.6 7,248.3 -6,082.1 2,538.1 3,202.6 -791.0
-355.0 -203.3 -255.8 -245.8 -234.4 -205.8 -227.5 -206.9 -135.7 -165.4 -73.6 -80.4
-2,350.7 -1,134.7 -512.9 -1,878.4 -4,492.9 121.2 -2,421.6 -937.5 863.5 -847.5 -493.8 -1,042.9
699.9 1,136.6 -1,489.6 -246.8 56.7 -36.3 332.2 668.6 391.1 299.3 487.8 642.1
2008P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
409.2 -401.3 388.0 -386.9 -1,250.4 -3,991.9 -5,774.6 5,325.4
-2,488.7 303.5 -2,605.4 -1,911.9 -262.6 -739.0 -1,214.3 -742.7
-4,011.1 -5,426.4 -1,628.1 3,571.7 7,343.4 -5,723.7 -9,563.1 -564.5
7,013.3 4,819.9 4,656.5 1,958.9 -8,276.5 2,561.3 5,180.4 6,743.0
-104.3 -98.3 -35.0 -87.8 -54.7 -90.5 -177.6 -109.5
1,436.1 1,703.1 710.8 2,411.3 2,264.6 1,041.8 9,171.4 -1,215.2
906.0 1,048.9 -988.2 -443.1 -636.7 1,125.7 -862.8 598.6
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
62
October 2008
11. Prices See graphs 11-1, 11-2 & 11-3 (2005 = 100) Producer prices (2000=100)
Consumer prices
Export & import prices
Period All Items
Commodity
Service
Core
All items
Commodity
Export
Import
2006 2007
102.2 104.8
101.5 103.5
102.7 105.7
101.8 104.2
100.9 102.3
100.5 101.5
91.8 89.8
100.9 105.5
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
102.8 103.5 104.1 104.5 104.6 104.6 105.0 105.1 105.7 105.9 105.9 106.3
101.4 102.3 102.3 102.8 102.8 102.7 103.3 103.5 104.7 105.1 104.9 105.6
103.8 104.2 105.2 105.5 105.7 105.8 106.0 106.1 106.3 106.4 106.6 106.7
102.7 103.1 103.8 104.1 104.1 104.2 104.4 104.5 104.6 104.7 104.8 105.0
100.5 100.6 101.0 101.7 102.3 102.5 102.7 102.6 103.1 103.3 103.7 104.1
99.6 99.6 100.2 100.9 101.6 101.7 101.7 101.7 102.3 102.4 103.1 103.7
88.6 88.1 88.9 89.2 89.3 89.5 89.6 90.6 90.8 89.8 91.5 92.0
97.7 99.5 102.7 104.0 104.5 104.2 104.1 105.1 107.6 108.6 113.0 114.9
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
106.8 107.2 108.2 108.8 109.7 110.4 111.2 111.0 111.1
106.3 106.6 107.1 108.2 110.0 111.5 112.9 112.2 112.1
107.1 107.5 108.9 109.2 109.5 109.7 110.1 110.3 110.4
105.6 106.0 107.2 107.7 108.2 108.7 109.2 109.4 109.9
104.7 105.7 107.1 109.4 111.5 113.3 115.5 115.2 114.8
104.4 105.7 107.5 110.3 113.1 115.5 118.1 117.6 117.0
93.7 94.8 100.8 103.3 110.7 112.0 112.1 110.5 115.6
118.4 121.6 131.5 136.5 151.1 155.2 156.8 149.9 153.4
Y-o-Y change (%) 2006 2007
2.2 2.5
1.5 2.0
2.7 2.9
1.8 2.4
0.9 1.4
0.5 1.0
-8.2 -2.1
0.9 4.5
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1.7 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.3 3.0 3.5 3.6
0.3 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.8 0.5 1.6 3.2 4.2 4.3
2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.0
2.1 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4
0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.6 0.9 1.0 2.2 3.1 3.6
-0.5 -0.6 0.2 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.4 1.8 3.3 4.0
-5.7 -4.2 -3.3 -1.8 -1.4 -2.8 -2.6 -3.4 -2.6 -2.5 1.8 3.4
-1.4 1.6 4.4 4.2 2.8 1.6 0.1 -0.7 5.2 7.5 13.7 15.6
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
3.9 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.9 5.5 5.9 5.6 5.1
4.8 4.2 4.7 5.3 7.0 8.6 9.3 8.4 7.1
3.2 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 3.9
2.8 2.8 3.3 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.6 4.7 5.1
4.2 5.1 6.1 7.6 9.0 10.5 12.5 12.3 11.3
4.8 6.1 7.3 9.3 11.3 13.6 16.1 15.6 14.4
5.8 7.6 13.4 15.7 24.0 25.2 25.1 21.9 27.4
21.2 22.2 28.0 31.3 44.6 49.0 50.6 42.6 42.6
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
63
12. Employment See graphs 8-1, 8-2 & 8-3
Wage workers (thous.)
Economically active persons (thous.) Period
Employed persons (thous.)
Unemployment (%) Regular
Temporary
Daily
All industry Manufacturing S.O.C&service 2006 2007
23,978 24,216
23,151 23,433
4,167 4,119
17,181 17,569
3.5 3.2
15,551 15,970
8,204 8,620
5,143 5,172
2,204 2,178
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
23,580 23,536 23,960 24,337 24,537 24,593 24,545 24,214 24,341 24,482 24,471 23,993
22,729 22,674 23,121 23,520 23,758 23,816 23,750 23,458 23,622 23,750 23,739 23,257
4,156 4,139 4,119 4,124 4,114 4,140 4,126 4,052 4,101 4,142 4,092 4,127
17,221 17,114 17,371 17,573 17,677 17,715 17,740 17,524 17,639 17,689 17,856 17,712
3.6 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1
15,656 15,539 15,731 15,964 16,095 16,124 16,127 15,882 16,056 16,147 16,218 16,104
8,382 8,399 8,432 8,451 8,532 8,617 8,674 8,763 8,823 8,825 8,793 8,750
5,176 5,125 5,188 5,236 5,259 5,217 5,254 5,044 5,100 5,119 5,174 5,176
2,099 2,015 2,112 2,277 2,304 2,290 2,199 2,075 2,132 2,203 2,251 2,178
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
23,738 23,703 24,114 24,495 24,692 24,727 24,673 24,380 24,456
22,964 22,884 23,305 23,711 23,939 23,963 23,903 23,617 23,734
4,125 4,136 4,100 4,099 4,097 4,107 4,097 4,020 4,047
17,549 17,409 17,630 17,829 17,931 17,947 17,958 17,744 17,825
3.3 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0
16,032 15,836 15,993 16,258 16,405 16,385 16,363 16,104 16,221
8,815 8,804 8,898 8,894 9,010 9,039 9,054 9,107 9,142
5,115 5,055 5,023 5,127 5,165 5,132 5,163 4,970 5,015
2,102 1,977 2,073 2,238 2,231 2,214 2,146 2,027 2,064
Y-o-Y change (%) 2006 2007
1.0 1.0
1.3 1.2
-1.6 -1.1
2.3 2.3
-5.4 -8.6
2.4 2.7
3.6 5.1
1.7 0.6
-0.4 -1.2
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1.0 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.9
1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2
-1.1 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.3 -1.0 -1.3 -1.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 0.6
1.9 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1
-2.7 -9.8 -10.3 -2.9 0.0 -5.9 -5.9 -8.8 -6.2 -9.1 -6.2 -6.1
3.1 2.9 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.6 3.5 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4
4.4 4.6 4.1 3.6 4.3 6.0 6.7 6.3 5.7 5.2 5.1 4.9
3.0 2.8 1.7 1.4 1.3 -0.5 -1.2 0.5 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -1.1
-1.6 -3.3 -2.5 -0.9 -2.1 -2.1 -3.3 -0.7 -0.5 0.8 0.7 1.6
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5
1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5
-0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.4 -0.8 -0.7 -0.8 -1.3
1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.1
-8.3 -5.4 -2.9 -5.9 -6.2 -3.1 -3.1 0.0 0.0
2.4 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.0
5.2 4.8 5.5 5.2 5.6 4.9 4.4 3.9 3.6
-1.2 -1.4 -3.2 -2.1 -1.8 -1.6 -1.7 -1.5 -1.7
0.2 -1.9 -1.8 -1.7 -3.2 -3.3 -2.4 -2.3 -3.2
Source: Korea National Statistical Office
64
October 2008
13. Financial indicators See graphs 9-1 & 9-4 (period average) Yields (%)
Stock
Period Call rate (1 day)
CD (91 days)
Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)
Treasury bonds (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
KOSPI (end-period)
2005 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.7
3.5 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0
4.1 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.8 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.5
3.7 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.1
3.9 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.4 4.7 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.3
932.70 1,011.40 965.70 911.30 970.20 1,008.20 1,111.30 1,083.30 1,221.00 1,158.10 1,297.40 1,379.40
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.8
5.5 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.2
5.0 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.8
5.3 5.0 5.1 5.2 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.9
1,399.80 1,371.60 1,359.60 1,419.70 1,371.70 1,295.70 1,297.80 1,352.70 1,371.40 1,364.60 1,432.20 1,434.50
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.7
5.3 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.7
5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.9
5.0 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.9
1,360.20 1,417.30 1,452.60 1,542.24 1,700.91 1,743.60 1,933.27 1,873.24 1,946.48 2,064.95 1,906.00 1,897.10
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.2
5.8 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.8 5.8
6.6 6.3 6.1 5.9 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.5
5.4 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.0 5.8 5.8
5.5 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.8
1,624.68 1,711.62 1703.99 1,825.47 1,852.02 1,674.92 1,594.67 1,474.24 1,448.06
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
65
14. Monetary indicators See graph 9-5 (period average)
Period
(billion won)
Reserve money
M1
M2
Lf
2006 2007
41,664.0 48,543.7
330,134.1 312,832.3
1,076,682.4 1,197,094.8
1,454,858.8 1,603,516.0
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
47,851.4 49,493.5 48,936.8 47,485.3 48,092.5 47,914.3 47,500.5 47,823.9 48,870.6 49,370.6 48,831.0 50,353.8
353,494.2 350,734.7 335,446.8 305,602.5 301,184.5 302,511.7 302,375.6 298,066.1 299,048.0 297,999.3 299,714.7 307,809.3
1,143,814.9 1,154,108.8 1,162,429.3 1,165,291.0 1,171,148.4 1,190,080.2 1,200,892.7 1,208,052.8 1,219,265.1 1,229,742.1 1,250,790.1 1,269,522.5
1,536,010.8 1,547,512.8 1,557,701.9 1,564,339.3 1,575,635.4 1,596,407.1 1,606,424.5 1,618,788.3 1,631,969.6 1,649,987.5 1,668,328.3 1,686,063.4
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
50,260.5 52,563.7 49,571.5 50,683.6 50,502.5 51,274.4 50,600.6 51,981.0
305,868.0 304,580.7 299,792.8 298,474.4 304,239.8 305,514.3 306,584.4 304,538.7
1,286,407.8 1,309,161.7 1,324,032.7 1,339,434.9 1,356,612.9 1,369,728.1 1,378,914.3 1,386,101.1
1,711,196.8 1,726,407.2 1,743,481.7 1,762,945.3 1,782,721.1 1,798,379.5 1,801,365.3 1,810,287.9
Y-o-Y change (%) 2006 2007
7.4 16.5
-0.8 -5.2
8.3 11.2
7.9 10.2
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
15.8 18.8 19.4 15.3 18.1 17.7 13.2 18.7 17.8 14.3 17.6 12.2
7.9 7.4 3.0 -5.7 -7.0 -7.5 -8.4 -8.6 -8.7 -10.7 -11.2 -12.5
11.3 11.5 11.5 11.1 10.9 10.9 10.9 11.4 11.0 10.8 11.3 11.5
9.8 9.9 10.2 10.1 10.1 10.4 10.0 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.6
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
5.0 6.2 1.3 6.7 5.0 7.0 6.5 8.7
-13.5 -13.2 -10.6 -2.3 1.0 1.0 1.4 2.2
12.5 13.4 13.9 14.9 15.8 15.1 14.8 14.7
11.4 11.6 11.9 12.7 13.1 12.7 12.1 11.8
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
66
October 2008
15. Exchange rates See graphs 9-2 & 9-3
₩ /US$
₩ /100￥
₩ /Euro
Period End-period
Average
End-period
Average
End-period
Average
2006 2007
929.6 938.2
955.5 929.2
781.8 833.3
821.5 789.8
1,222.2 1,381.3
1,199.3 1,272.7
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
940.9 938.3 940.3 929.4 929.9 926.8 923.2 939.9 920.7 907.4 929.6 938.2
936.4 937.0 943.3 931.5 927.9 928.3 918.9 933.8 932.4 915.9 917.0 930.2
773.1 793.9 797.0 778.3 764.8 752.4 774.6 809.9 796.7 791.1 846.5 833.3
777.9 776.8 804.8 783.7 768.5 757.1 755.6 799.8 810.6 790.7 826.2 828.4
1,220.1 1,241.9 1,253.9 1,266.9 1,249.0 1,246.0 1,266.9 1,282.3 1,302.9 1,309.9 1,371.8 1,381.3
1,217.0 1,225.1 1,249.4 1,257.7 1,254.1 1,244.9 1,260.0 1,272.4 1,291.2 1,303.3 1,345.6 1,355.2
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
943.9 937.3 991.7 999.7 1,031.4 1,043.4 1,008.5 1,081.8 1187.7
942.4 944.7 979.9 986.7 1,036.7 1,029.3 1,019.1 1,041.5 1,130.4
889.1 889.7 1,000.2 961.8 977.0 981.8 932.9 987.9 1,144.2
872.9 880.6 972.3 962.4 994.2 963.0 954.2 953.0 1,060.6
1402.3 1423.5 1,565.0 1,556.2 1,599.6 1,647.1 1,571.0 1,590.3 1,707.2
1,386.2 1,395.4 1,519.5 1,555.1 1,614.6 1,601.7 1,606.4 1,561.6 1,627.6
Y-o-Y change (%) 2006 2007
-8.2 0.9
-6.7 -2.8
-9.1 6.6
-11.7 -3.9
1.9 -13.0
-5.9 6.1
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-3.1 -3.2 -3.7 -1.7 -1.9 -3.5 -3.1 -2.1 -2.6 -3.9 -0.0 0.9
-5.1 -3.4 -3.3 -2.4 -1.4 -2.8 -3.3 -2.8 -2.2 -4.0 -2.1 0.5
-6.3 -4.8 -4.2 -6.0 -9.2 -9.8 -6.7 -1.3 -0.7 -1.5 5.9 6.6
-8.9 -5.5 -3.2 -3.8 -8.8 -9.1 -8.0 -3.6 -0.5 -1.5 3.5 4.8
3.9 8.2 5.6 6.9 3.4 2.5 4.2 4.1 8.5 9.1 12.2 13.0
1.9 5.6 6.5 7.5 4.4 3.0 4.5 3.4 6.3 8.4 11.6 10.8
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0.3 -0.1 5.5 7.6 10.9 12.6 9.2 15.1 29.0
0.6 0.8 3.9 5.9 11.7 10.9 10.9 11.5 21.2
15.0 12.1 25.5 23.6 27.8 30.5 20.4 22.0 43.6
12.2 13.4 20.8 22.8 29.4 27.2 26.3 19.2 30.8
14.9 14.6 24.8 22.8 28.1 32.2 24.0 24.0 31.0
13.9 13.9 21.6 23.6 28.7 28.7 27.5 22.7 26.1
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
67
Editor-in-Chief Kim, Kyu-Ok (MOSF) Editorial Board Kim, Dong-Yule (KDI) Lee, In-Sook (KDI) Coordinators Oh, Hae-Young (MOSF) Kang, Ji-Eun (KDI) Editors Kim, Sun-Young (MOSF) Cho, Hyun-Joo (KDI)
Useful Internet Websites Economy-related Websites Recommended
Ministry of Strategy and Finance http://english.mosf.go.kr Ministry of Knowledge Economy http://www.mke.go.kr/language/eng Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr Fair Trade Commission http://www.ftc.go.kr/eng Ministry of Labor http://english.molab.go.kr/english The Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr Korea National Statistical Office http://www.nso.go.kr/eng2006