Vol. 30 | No. 11
Republic of Korea
Economic Bulletin The Green Book : Current Economic Trends Overview
3
1. Global economy
4
2. Private consumption
8
3. Facility investment
12
4. Construction investment
14
5. Exports and imports
16
6. Mining and manufacturing production
18
7. Service sector activity
20
8. Employment
22
9. Financial markets
24
9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4
Stock market Exchange rate Bond market Money supply & money market
10. Balance of payments
28
11. Prices and international commodity prices
30
11.1 Prices 11.2 International oil and commodity prices 12. Real estate market
34
12.1 Housing market 12.2 Land market 13. Composite indexes of business cycle indicators
Policy Issues
38
40
Comprehensive policy measures to overcome the ongoing economic difficulties
Economic News Briefing
46
Statistical Appendices
49
The Green Book Current Economic Trends
Overview Despite mitigated inflationary pressures, the Korean economy has seen domestic demand further deteriorating and downside risks to growth rising due to the global economic downturn. Mining and manufacturing production in September accelerated 6.1 percent year-on-year, after gaining 1.9 percent in the previous month on the back of brisk exports and a three day increase in the number of working days, but it shed 0.8 percent on a working-day-adjusted basis. September consumer goods sales reversed course and fell 2.0 percent year-on-year and 3.8 percent from the previous month respectively, as a result of drops in the sales of automobiles following union’s strikes and of semi-durable goods such as apparel. Facility investment (estimated) picked up speed, posting a 7.3 percent growth in September thanks to the low base effect from a year earlier when a shortfall of 3.7 percent was recorded. On a month-on-month basis, however, it decelerated 2.7 percent. The total number of workers hired rose a mere 112,000 year-on-year in September, signifying a further deterioration in the Korean job market. In September, the leading composite index fell for the tenth consecutive month on a year-on-year basis, while the cyclical indicator of coincident composite index went down for the eighth straight month. October exports grew a meager 10.0 percent, after gaining an average 22.7 percent for the first nine months of 2008, due to the high comparison base set last year, the global economic downturn, and a drop in export unit prices. In September, Korea’s current account deficit sharply narrowed to US$1.22 billion from US$4.7 billion a month earlier. In October, the current account surplus is likely to increase above the forecast level of US$1.5 billion, backed by a decline in the nation’s travel account deficit. Consumer prices in October grew at a slower pace for the third consecutive month and posted a year-on-year growth of 4.8 percent, due to a decline in petroleum product prices and stable prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products. Financial markets became more unstable in October, stirred by volatile global stock markets, but they have shown signs of recovery after the announcement of the government’s measures to stabilize financial markets and a Korea-US temporary reciprocal currency arrangement. To sum up, the Korean economy has seen domestic demand further worsening and growth and employment continued a downward trend, as the turmoil in global financial markets has led to a contraction in the real economy. Against this backdrop, decisive and pre-emptive measures are needed to ward off financial market instability, while continuous efforts should be made to ease economic woes facing both the ordinary people and small- and medium-sized companies. Moreover, an expansionary fiscal policy should be reinforced to create jobs and reinvigorate the real economy. Economic Bulletin
3
1. Global economy Concerns over a global economic recession have been widespread as the negative effect of unstable global financial markets on the real economy is becoming more apparent. Amid easing inflationary pressures, major countries in the world coordinated to cut interest rates on October 8 and unveiled their economic stimulus packages including tax cuts and an increase in fiscal spending.
US
The US economy (preliminary) shrank at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the third quarter of this year, the sharpest contraction since the third quarter of 2001 when the US economy contracted 1.4 percent with the bursting of the IT bubble. Consumer spending has sharply dropped 3.1 percent due to the credit crunch and deteriorating employment, serving as the main culprit of the decelerating growth in the third quarter. The number of non-farm payroll employees has fallen for nine straight months and the number of unemployed workers applying for unemployment benefits have went up, as companies held back from hiring new employees and laid off more workers. Initial claims for unemployment benefits in the fourth week of September posted 497,000, the highest since September 2001. Economic slowdowns in developed countries including Japan and the European countries have put the brakes on exports. New home sales have become resilient, but the housing market has remained unstable because house prices have continued to show a downtrend. Case-Shiller home price index (m-o-m, %) -1.3 (Apr 2008)
-0.8 (May)
-0.5 (Jun)
-0.9 (Jul)
-1.0 (Aug)
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut its benchmark interest rates twice in October by a total of one percentage point. US federal funds rate in October (%) 2.0
1.5 (Oct 8)
1.0 (Oct 29) (Percentage change from previous period) 2007
2006 Annual Real GDP
Annual
2008
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Aug
Sep
2.8
2.0
4.8
-0.2
0.9
2.8
-0.3
-
-
- Personal consumption expenditure
3.0
2.8
2.0
1.0
0.9
1.2
-3.1
-
-
- Corporate fixed investment
7.5
4.9
8.7
3.4
2.4
2.5
-1.0
-
-
- Construction investment for housing
-7.1
-17.9
-20.6
-27.0
-25.1
-13.3
-19.1
-
-
Industrial production
2.2
1.7
3.6
0.3
0.4
-3.1
-6.0
-1.0
-2.8
Retail sales
5.8
4.0
0.6
0.9
0.2
0.9
-1.0
-0.4
-1.2
New non-farm payroll employment (q-o-q, thousand)
2,099
1,096
212
241
-247
-214
-299
-73
-159
New home sales
-18.1
-26.2
-14.3
-10.9
-13.8
-7.5
-7.9
-12.7
2.7
3.2
2.9
2.4
4.0
4.1
4.4
5.3
5.4
4.9
1
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) 1. Annualized rate (%)
4
November 2008
1-1
US GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate) Source: US Department of Commerce
1-2
US non-farm payroll employment (m-o-m change) Source: US Department of Labor
1-3
US federal funds rate and consumer prices Source: US Federal Reserve Board & Department of Labor
Economic Bulletin
5
China
The Chinese economy has seen industrial production slowing down, recording a one-digit growth rate of 9 percent. The Chinese government switched its policy direction to boost the economy through the economic stimulus package which includes scrapping the stamp tax on stock purchase and allowing margin trading. In the same vein, the People’s Bank of China has slashed its key lending rate three times from September through October. Key lending rate in China (%) 7.47
7.20 (Sep 15)
6.93 (Oct 3)
6.66 (Oct 29) (Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2006
2007
2008
Annual
Annual
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Aug
Sep
Real GDP
10.7
11.9
11.5
11.2
10.6
10.1
9.0
-
-
Fixed asset investment (accumulated)
24.5
25.8
26.4
25.8
25.9
27.1
27.6
27.4
27.6
Retail sales
13.7
16.8
16.8
19.0
20.6
22.2
23.2
23.2
23.2
Industrial production
16.6
18.5
18.1
17.5
16.4
15.9
13.0
12.8
11.4
Exports
27.2
25.7
26.2
25.7
21.4
22.4
23.1
21.1
21.5
Consumer prices
1.5
4.8
6.1
6.6
8.0
7.8
5.3
4.9
4.6
Producer prices
3.0
3.1
2.6
4.4
6.9
8.3
9.1
10.1
9.1
Japan
Amid falling export gains and weak production in the mining and manufacturing sector, the Japanese government revised down its economic outlook from “signs of an economic downturn” to “downturn” on October 20. (Percentage change from previous period) 2006 Annual
2007 Annual
Q3
2008 Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Aug
Sep
Real GDP
2.5
1.6
0.2
0.6
0.7
-0.7
-
-
-
Industrial and mining production
4.5
2.8
1.7
0.9
-0.7
-0.7
-1.2
-6.9
0.4
Retail sales (y-o-y, %)
0.1
-0.1
-0.5
0.8
1.8
0.2
0.8
0.7
-0.4
Exports (y-o-y, %)
14.6
11.5
10.7
10.0
6.0
1.8
3.2
0.3
1.5
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %)
0.3
0.0
-0.2
0.5
0.9
1.4
2.2
2.1
2.1
Eurozone
Worries over an economic recession have been widely spread in the eurozone economy due to sluggish exports and weak demand. The European Central Bank (ECB) cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage points to 3.75 percent from 4.25 percent on October 8. Further cuts are likely on the horizon. (Percentage change from previous period) 2006
2007
2008
Annual
Annual
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Aug
Sep
Real GDP
2.8
2.7
0.6
0.4
0.7
-0.2
-
-
-
Industrial production
4.0
3.4
1.4
-0.1
0.4
-0.6
-
1.1
-
Retail sales
1.6
1.0
0.5
-0.9
-0.2
-0.9
-
0.3
-
Exports (y-o-y, %)
11.6
8.5
10.0
5.3
5.8
6.0
-
3.0
-
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %)
2.2
2.1
1.9
2.9
3.4
3.6
3.8
3.8
3.6
6
November 2008
1-4
China’s GDP and fixed asset investment Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
1-5
Japan’s GDP growth Source: Cabinet Office & Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan
1-6
Eurozone GDP growth and industrial production Source: Eurostat
Economic Bulletin
7
2. Private consumption Private consumption (preliminary GDP) in the third quarter of 2008 gained a mere 1.1 percent year-on-year, maintaining its downtrend. On a month-on-month basis, however, it turned slightly up 0.1 percent. Private consumption (y-o-y, %) 4.4 (Q2 2007)
4.8 (Q3)
4.6 (Q4)
(SA*, q-o-q, %): 0.9 (Q2 2007)
3.4 (Q1 2008)
1.3 (Q3)
2.3 (Q2)
0.8 (Q4)
1.1 (Q3)
0.4 (Q1 2008)
-0.2 (Q2)
0.1 (Q3)
* SA: seasonally adjusted
September consumer goods sales fell into negative territory month-on-month as well as year-on-year, due to a decline in durable and semi-durable goods sales. As Hyundai Motor Co.’s union staged a partial strike, the sales of automobiles dropped, and semi-durable goods sales including apparel and textures slipped into negative territory and non-durable goods sales slowed down as well. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
2007
2008
Annual
Annual
Q3
Q4
Sep
Q1
Consumer goods sales
4.1
5.3
7.1
4.5
6.4
3.9
2.5
1.0
1.4
-2.0
(Seasonally adjusted)2
-
-
1.8
0.3
0.9
2.0
-1.1
0.0
0.0
-3.8
11.2
11.0
10.1
6.9
0.0
8.2
7.6
-0.2
-4.1
-4.2
6.9
6.8
4.1
3.9
-18.5
9.5
7.1
-5.0
-13.1
-8.2
3.0
2.9
3.2
2.9
4.1
5.4
-1.6
1.6
9.1
-6.2
1.7
3.7
7.1
4.0
10.4
1.5
1.6
1.4
1.7
0.6
- Durable goods3 ·Automobiles - Semi-durable goods - Non-durable goods5
4
Q2
Q31
Aug1
Sep1
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period 3. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 4. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 5. Non-durable good: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobaccos, etc.
Sales at department stores, large discounters, and specialized retailers all showed a downtrend. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) Annual
Annual
Q3
Q4
2008 (Percentage (Percentage change change from from same same period period in in previous previous year) year) 1 Sep Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug1 Sep1
3.3
0.7
3.2
2.8
6.8
4.3
3.7
0.1
8.5
-5.1
8.1
8.7
12.2
4.4
26.8
7.3
3.2
-1.0
1.4
-7.6
2.3
5.6
7.0
4.4
2.0
1.6
0.1
-1.4
-1.7
-4.0
2006
- Department stores - Large discounters - Specialized retailers
2
2007
1. Preliminary 2. Specialized retailers are defined as stores carrying a few (1 to 3) specialized items.
8
November 2008
2-1
Private consumption Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
2-2
Consumer goods sales Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
2-3
Consumer goods sales by type Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
9
Given preliminary consumption indices and deterioration in consumer sentiment, consumer goods sales in October are unlikely to break its current downtrend. Sales growth at large discounters reversed course and rose slightly, while that at department stores has been on its downward trajectory and domestic credit card spending has slowed its growth pace. Domestic sales of Korean automobiles decelerated to a much slower growth as supply disruptions triggered by truck drivers’ strikes from August to September were resolved. Retail gasoline sales have went down for five straight months with its pace of decline expanding rapidly. Value of credit card use (y-o-y, %) 20.0 (May 2008)
18.8 (Jun)
22.9 (Jul)
19.0 (Aug)
21.0 (Sep)
15.2 (Oct)
Department store sales (y-o-y, %) 11.3 (May 2008)
11.2 (Jun)
5.9 (Jul)
14.0 (Aug)
- 0.3 (Sep)
-0.3 (Oct)
Discount store sales (y-o-y, %) 4.9 (May 2008)
-1.9 (Jun)
2.1 (Jul)
1.1 (Aug)
- 9.2 (Sep)
3.2 (Oct)
Domestic sales of Korean automobiles (y-o-y, %) 3.3 (May 2008)
-7.5 (Jun)
5.1 (Jul)
-18.7 (Aug)
-14.5 (Sep)
-0.1 (Oct)
-5.1 (Jul)
-3.2 (Aug)
-0.7 (Sept)
-11.5 (Oct)
Sales of gasoline (y-o-y, %) 0.0 (May 2008)
-4.6 (Jun)
Source: Ministry of Knowledge and Economy The Credit Finance Association Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association Korea National Oil Corporation Ministry of Strategy and Finance (for October data)
Consumer spending is likely to remain in a downtrend, as sluggish employment and the decline in asset values have adversely affected households’ disposable income and some factors have still remained which have negative effects on consumer sentiment, such as instability and uncertainties in financial markets. Employment (y-o-y, thousand) 209 (Q1 2008)
173 (Q2)
141 (Q3)
159 (Aug)
112 (Sep)
KOSPI (end-period) 1,852 (May 2008)
1,675 (Jun)
1,595 (Jul)
1,474 (Aug)
1,448 (Sep)
Consumer sentiment index 102 (Q1 2008)
85 (Q2)
Source: The Bank of Korea
10
November 2008
84 (Jul)
96 (Aug)
96 (Sep)
88 (Oct)
1,113 (Oct)
2-4
Department store and discount store sales (current value) Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy (monthly retail sales)
2-5
Domestic automobile sales Source: Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association (monthly automobile industry trend)
2-6
Consumer sentiment index Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
11
3. Facility investment Facility investment (preliminary GDP) in the third quarter of this year saw a year-on-year increase of 4.9 percent and a 2.3 percent increase from the previous quarter. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
20071
20081
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
7.8
7.6
10.9
11.0
2.3
6.5
1.4
0.7
4.9
-
-
4.5
1.6
-1.8
2.1
-0.4
0.9
2.3
- Machinery
8.2
7.6
13.5
9.5
1.0
7.0
-0.9
-0.1
-
- Transportation equipment
6.0
7.7
0.3
18.9
8.9
4.0
12.3
4.4
-
Facility investment
2
(Seasonally adjusted)3
1. Preliminary
2. National accounts
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
3. Percentage change from previous period
The facility investment (estimated) in September increased on a year-on-year basis as investments in transportation equipment and machinery rose. However, the growth in facility investment is largely due to a low base effect from a year earlier when a 3.7 percent loss was recorded. Facility investment in September fell 2.7 percent from the previous month. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
2007
Annual Annual Facility investment (estimated)
Q1
Q2
2008 Q3
Q4
Sep
Q1
Q2
Q3
1
Jul
Aug1
Sep1
8.9
8.6
12.8
11.9
0.7
9.2
-3.7
-0.9
0.1
6.2
9.9
1.5
7.3
-
-
2.9
0.5
-1.6
5.9
-3.2
-5.3
1.4
3.2
1.3
-0.1
-2.7
- Machinery
10.2
8.5
16.4
12.1
-0.5
6.4
-2.7
-1.8
-1.6
6.2
6.3
5.6
6.9
- Tranportation equipment
3.9
9.0
-3.3
12.3
6.0
21.0
-10.8
2.9
7.6
6.4
32.2
-19.0
14.9
Domestic machinery orders
(Seasonally adjusted)2
16.2
21.1
18.9
7.1
19.1
39.3
19.5
25.2
8.8
6.4
20.7
-3.9
-33.4
- Public
0.3
-11.2
13.9
-47.7
-26.9
12.9
-45.9
8.8
83.4
-72
5.3
-31.8
-52.7
- Private
18.0
24.2
19.1
11.6
24.0
43.4
29.4
25.9
5.9
-26.8
21.8
-2.4
-32.1
18.0
22.1
20.8
33.9
4.9
30.3
-9.1
12.0
8.2
20.0
24.8
5.9
32.2
Machinery imports 1. Preliminary
2. Percentage change from previous period
Leading indicators such as machinery orders and the business survey index (BSI) indicate that facility investment in October is unlikely to improve. Domestic machinery orders in September declined by 33.4 percent year-on-year in both the public and private sectors. Both the Bank of Korea’s BSI projections and results for facility investments in the manufacturing sector fell from the previous month.
2008
Business survey indexes (base=100) Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Manufacturing facility investment result
100
98
99
96
95
-
Manufacturing facility investment prospect
103
100
98
99
96
93
Source: The Bank of Korea
12
November 2008
3-1
Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
3-2
Machinery orders and estimated facility investment (3-month average) Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
3-3
Machinery imports Source: Korea International Trade Association (KITA)
Economic Bulletin
13
4. Construction investment Construction investment (preliminary GDP) in the third quarter of 2008 continued to be sluggish, posting a year-on-year loss of 0.9 percent, and a 0.3 percent loss compared with the previous quarter. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
20081
20071
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
-0.1
1.2
3.7
1.6
-0.1
0.4
-1.1
-1.2
-0.9
(Seasonally adjusted)3
-
-
-0.3
-1.2
0.2
1.2
-1.4
-1.0
-0.3
- Building construction
-0.7
1.8
2.0
1.2
1.8
2.2
-0.3
-1.8
-
- Civil engineering works
0.7
0.3
7.2
2.1
-2.9
-1.8
-2.5
-0.5
-
Construction investment2
1. Preliminary
2. National accounts
3. Percentage change from previous period
In September, construction completed (current value) stayed on the upward track on account of three more construction days. Construction completed in the public sector posted a modest 6.5 percent growth in September, down from 9.5 percent in August. On the other hand, that in the private sector enjoyed a rapid increase of 17.7 percent in September, up from 6.2 percent a month earlier. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
2007
Annual Annual Construction completed
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Sep
Q1
Q2
Q31
Jul
Aug1
Sep1
2.6
6.6
7.9
6.0
4.4
8.0
-6.3
5.8
6.5
11.1
10.2
8.2
15.0
- Building construction
1.8
6.2
6.5
4.1
4.0
9.8
-4.9
4.7
6.6
9.5
11.5
4.5
12.7
- Civil engineering works
4.3
6.9
9.9
9.2
4.8
5.0
-9.1
8.1
6.4
14.8
8.0
16.4
19.5
2
1. Preliminary 2. Industrial activity
Given the housing downturn and waning investor confidence, it is unlikely that construction investment snaps its downward trend in the months to come. Business survey index for construction (base=100) 49.3 (May 2008)
51.7 (Jun)
52.5 (Jul)
52.3 (Aug)
50.1 (Sep)
Source: The Construction and Economy Research Institute of Korea
Construction orders (current value), one component of the leading composite indexes, dropped for the fourth consecutive month in September, posting a year-on-year slump of 40.4 percent, as the private sector saw a drastic fall of 59.9 percent. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
2007
Annual Annual Construction orders
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Sep
Q1
Q2
Q31
Jul
Aug1
Sep1
9.0
19.3
26.3
26.3
-5.6
29.5
-9.8
-3.9
-6.1
-22.8
-13.0
-7.6
-40.4
- Public
-6.3
34.2
49.3
21.2
7.3
47.2
-32.3
20.0
18.6
3.3
-8.8
11.2
7.8
- Private
12.8
13.1
21.8
17.0
-12.9
28.6
-3.7
-15.0
-5.9
-32.5
-8.1
-10.5
-59.9
1. Preliminary 2. Current value
14
November 2008
2
4-1
Construction investment Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
4-2
Construction completed and housing construction Source: Korea National Statistical Office (construction completed) Kookmin Bank (housing construction) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
4-3
Leading indicators of construction investment Source: Korea National Statistical Office (construction orders) Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (building construction permit area)
Economic Bulletin
15
5. Exports and Imports Exports grew a mere 10.0 percent year-on-year in October to US$37.89 billion, due to a high base effect from a year earlier and the global economic slowdown. According to the estimates by the Ministry of Knowledge and Economy, exports of vessels (up 117.8%), petroleum goods (up 45.2%), steel (up 40.1%), and wireless telecommunications equipment (up 13.5%) have posted a double-digit growth, while those of automobiles (down 14.3%), semiconductors (down 26.4%), and computers (down 37.0%) have slid. By regional category, exports to the Middle East (up 22.4%), and Central and South America (up 32.1%) have boomed, while those to the EU (down 8.2%), Japan (up 5.5%), China (down 1.8%), and ASEAN nations (up 6.3%) have been sluggish. (US$ billion) 2007
2008
Aug
Sep
Oct
Jan-Oct
Aug
Sep
Oct
Jan-Oct
Exports
31.00
29.32
34.43
302.65
36.64
37.59
37.89
367.08
(y-o-y, %)
(13.6)
(-1.1)
(22.9)
(13.7)
(18.7)
(28.7)
(10.0)
(21.3)
Average daily exports
1.29
1.50
1.44
1.33
1.63
1.67
1.58
1.61
Imports
29.64
27.19
32.74
289.02
40.44
39.65
36.67
380.53
(y-o-y, %)
(9.7)
(-1.6)
(27.8)
(13.3)
(37.0)
(45.8)
(12.0)
(31.7)
Average daily imports
1.24
1.40
1.36
1.27
1.80
1.76
1.53
1.67
Trade balance
1.36
2.13
1.69
13.63
-3.80
-2.06
1.22
-13.46
October imports gained a meager 12.0 percent year-on-year to post US$36.67 billion, owing to a high base effect from a year earlier, drops in raw material prices, and weak domestic demand. Imports of raw materials such as crude oil fell sharply thanks to drops in prices, and weak domestic demand sent the imports of capital goods and consumer goods contracting. Raw materials (y-o-y, %) 45.2 (Jun 2008)
66.2 (Jul)
57.2 (Aug)
61.1 (Sep)
22.2 (Oct 1~20)
Capital goods (y-o-y, %) 14.0 (Jun 2008)
20.6 (Jul)
7.9 (Aug)
26.2 (Sep)
-3.2 (Oct 1~20)
8.8 (Aug)
18.8 (Sep)
-12.8 (Oct 1~20)
Consumer goods (y-o-y, %) 18.9 (Jun 2008)
20.2 (Jul)
Korea’s trade balance swung to a surplus of US$1.22 billion in October after four consecutive months of shortfalls, as the drops in raw material prices led to a slowdown in imports growth. Dubai crude oil price (US$/barrel) 67.4 (Aug 2007)
73.4 (Sep)
77.2 (Oct), 113.0 (Aug 2008)
96.3 (Sep)
67.7 (Oct)
November’s trade balance is projected to stay in positive territory. Since the unit price of crude oil imports reached US$97 per barrel in October, well above the same month’s Dubai crude oil price of US$68, crude oil import costs are likely to level off.
16
November 2008
5-1
Exports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend) 43.4 38.0 32.5 27.1 21.7 16.3 10.8 5.4
5-2
Imports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
5-3
Trade balance Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
Economic Bulletin
17
6. Mining and manufacturing production Production in mining and manufacturing in September posted a year-on-year growth of 6.1 percent, up from last month’s growth pace of 1.9 percent, on the back of a two day increase in the number of working days and the recent boom in exports which jumped 28.2 percent in September after gaining 18.2 percent in August. However, in working-day-adjusted terms, production in mining and manufacturing in September declined 0.8 percent year-on-year. It also fell for the third consecutive month in September to post a 0.6 percent loss month-on-month, due to strikes by auto workers unions. In working-day-adjusted terms, this is the first reduction in production in mining and manufacturing since September 2001 when a 3 percent loss was recorded. By business category, other transportation equipment (up 36.9%) and audiovisual telecommunications equipment (up 21.1%) have contributed to year-on-year output growth. Contribution to year-on-year output growth (%p) Other transportation equipment (0.86), audiovisual telecommunications (1.27)
Growth in shipments climbed to 5.9 percent in September from 1.9 percent in the previous month, while inventories jumped 17.4 percent, up from 14.4 percent in the previous month. Semiconductors and parts contributed 9.6 percentage points to September inventory growth of 17.6 percent. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007
2008
Annual
Q2
Sep
Q2
Q3
-
2.6
-0.9
1.4
-2.2
-0.3
-2.2
-0.6
(y-o-y)
6.8
5.9
-3.1
8.6
5.6
8.7
1.9
6.1
(Days operated reflected)
7.0
9.2
8.2
9.4
3.1
6.1
4.3
-0.8
- Manufacturing
7.0
6.2
-3.3
9.0
5.6
8.7
1.9
6.0
·Heavy chemical industry
8.2
8.0
-1.3
11.1
6.7
9.7
3.3
6.8
·Light industry
1.7
-1.5
-11.5
-0.7
0.6
4.1
-4.5
2.4
7.1
5.4
-3.7
6.3
5.4
8.3
1.9
5.9
- Domestic demand
4.9
3.0
-7.2
1.7
1.7
5.1
-1.4
1.2
- Exports
10.2
9.1
1.9
13.5
10.5
12.6
6.5
12.4
Inventory3
5.7
2.6
2.6
16.5
17.4
14.7
14.4
17.4
Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) activity Production capacity
80.3
80.0
78.6
81.0
78.5
79.7
78.5
77.3
5.2
5.8
5.9
6.2
4.9
5.4
4.9
4.5
Production (q-o-q, m-o-m)
Mining and manufacturing activity2
Shipment
1
Jul
Aug1
Sep1
1. Preliminary 2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry 3. End-period (month, quarter and year)
October’s production in the mining and manufacturing sector is forecast to fall short of September’s, due to a high base effect from October 2007, weak domestic demand, and slowing exports which grew a mere 10.0 percent in October, down from 28.2 percent in September.
18
November 2008
6-1
Industrial production Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
6-2
Average manufacturing operation ratio Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
6-3
Inventory Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
19
7. Service sector activity Service activity in September accelerated its year-on-year growth to 3.0 percent from the previous month’s 1.5 percent. By business category, financial & insurance services (up 11.8%), healthcare & social welfare services (up 5.8%) and communication services (up 5.2%) contributed to the output growth in the sector. Meanwhile, real estate & renting services (down 3.8%), entertainment, cultural & sports services (down 0.5%), and wholesale & retail sales (up 0.3%) have shown sluggish performance, reflecting deteriorating consumer sentiment and a contracting housing market. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) Weight
2007
2006 Annual Annual
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Sep
Q1
Q2
Q3
Jul
Aug1
Sep1
1
Service activity index
100
5.5
6.4
5.4
6.1
7.2
6.8
4.3
6.4
4.6
2.7
3.9
1.5
3.0
- Wholesale & retail
22.0
3.8
4.3
4.3
3.7
4.2
5.2
1.8
3.9
2.5
3.0
5.6
3.6
0.3
- Hotels & restaurants
7.8
2.2
2.4
2.0
2.6
2.2
2.9
-1.5
3.1
1.7
1.9
0.7
1.7
3.5
- Transportation services
9.0
6.9
7.1
6.6
5.5
8.4
8.1
5.3
7.7
8.1
3.3
6.2
0.8
3.1
- Communication services
5.0
3.6
3.7
3.1
2.9
2.3
6.3
-0.1
4.8
4.6
3.7
5.5
0.5
5.2
- Financial & insurance services
15.4
9.0
16.0
9.5
16.3
18.3
19.5
14.4
15.3
10.0
9.0
8.5
6.9
11.8
- Real estate & renting
6.3
9.8
2.7
6.9
2.0
6.6
-3.5
-2.9
5.8
2.6
-8.5
-6.2
-14.8
-3.8
- Business services
10.0
5.7
6.6
5.3
6.7
7.0
7.4
5.9
5.0
3.8
2.0
4.8
0.8
0.5
- Educational services
10.6
2.6
2.3
3.0
2.5
2.5
1.4
4.4
3.3
1.9
-0.5
-0.7
-0.9
0.4
- Healthcare & social welfare services
6.0
11.0
8.5
8.3
9.0
9.2
7.4
5.9
6.2
6.8
5.5
5.7
5.1
5.8
- Entertainment, cultural & sports services
3.8
1.8
6.4
5.5
6.4
7.5
5.7
1.0
4.1
1.8
1.2
-0.3
4.3
-0.5
- Other public & personal services
4.2
3.8
0.7
1.0
0.1
0.7
1.0
-1.2
2.0
0.9
-1.6
0.6
-4.5
-0.7
1. Preliminary
Service output growth in October is expected to be limited as weak domestic demand continued. Private consumption (y-o-y, %) 4.6 (Q4 2007)
20
November 2008
3.4 (Q1 2008)
2.3 (Q2)
1.1 (Q3)
7-1
Service industry Source: Korea National Statistical Office (service industry activity trend)
80.0 70.0
7-2
Wholesale and retail sales Source: Korea National Statistical Office (service industry activity trend)
Sep 2008 service industry by business Source: Korea National Statistical Office (service industry activity trend)
Edu cati ona l
Bus ines s se rvic es
rent ing Rea l es tate &
Com mun icat ion serv ices Fina serv ncial & ices insu ranc e
Tran spo rtat ion
Hot els &
5.0
Wh oles ale &
10.0
reta il
15.0
rest aura nts
20.0
serv ices Hea l t h serv care ices & s ocia l we lfar e Ente spo rtainm rts s en ervi t, cu ces ltura l& Oth & p er pub erso lic, nal repa serv ir ices
25.0
Tota l ind ex
7-3
0.0 -5.0 -10.0 -15.0 -20.0
Economic Bulletin
21
8. Employment The number of Korean workers on payroll in September increased a mere 112,000 from a year earlier as domestic demand remained sluggish and the employment survey period (Sep 14 to 20) included the Chuseok (Korean Thanksgiving) holidays. The figure is compared with a monthly average increase of 282,000 in 2007. Employment growth in the service sector slowed to 234,000 as hiring in wholesale & retail sales and hotels & restaurants declined 60,000 while that in business services decelerated its growth to 34,000. However, healthcare & social welfare services expanded its growth to 127,000. Employment in the manufacturing sector has continued its downward trend caused by structural factors such as informatization, with a decrease of 54,000 year-on-year. Hiring in the construction sector declined at a faster pace of 47,000 due to a recent slump in the housing market and chilled investor sentiment in construction. Agriculture, forestry and fisheries lost 25,000 jobs, continuing its downward trend in the employment as its share in the national economy has contracted. By status of workers, growth in the number of wage workers has sharply decelerated to 166,000, as companies held back from hiring new employees due to worsening external conditions. The number of temporary or daily workers, in particular, shrank significantly by 153,000 from a year earlier. The employment rate posted 59.8 percent, down 0.4 percentage points compared to the same month of the previous year. The unemployment rate remained unchanged year-on-year at 3.0 percent while the unemployment rate of youths aged 15 to 29 fell 0.9 percentage points from a year earlier to 6.1 percent. (Change from same period in previous year, thousand) 2007
2008
Sep
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Aug
Sep
292
282
264
289
296
278
210
173
159
112
- Agriculture, forestry and fishery
-64
-58
-42
-52
-72
-67
-62
-52
-35
-25
- Manufacturing
-34
-48
-51
-55
-50
-37
-24
-25
-33
-54
- Construction
-7
15
46
30
-6
-9
-17
-38
-27
-47
- Services
398
373
309
367
424
392
312
285
247
234
Employment growth
Unemployment rate (%)
3.0
3.2
3.6
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.4
3.1
3.1
3.0
Employment rate (%)
60.2
59.8
58.6
60.6
60.2
60.0
58.5
60.4
59.6
59.8
22
November 2008
8-1
Number of employed and employment growth Source: Korea National Statistical Office (employment trend)
8-2
Share of employed by industry Source: Korea National Statistical Office (employment trend)
8-3
Unemployment rate and number of unemployed Source: Korea National Statistical Office (employment trend)
Economic Bulletin
23
9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market The Korean stock market in October declined to 938.75 points on October 24, the lowest record this year, amid the global stock market collapse. The Korean main bourse, however, rebounded thereafter due to the announcement of comprehensive policy measures to overcome the ongoing economic crisis by the Korean government and the signing of the Korea-US currency swap agreement. Foreign investors maintained a net selling position in Asian emerging countries including Korea continuing their deleveraging and efforts to secure safe assets in the unstable global market. Net selling by foreign investors (trillion won) 26.9 (Jan-Aug 2008)
3.9 (Sep)
4.6 (Oct) (End-period, point, trillion won)
KOSPI
Stock price index Market capitalization
KOSDAQ
2007
Oct 2008
Change1
2007
Oct 2008
Change1
1,897.1
1,113.1
-784.0 (-41.3%)
704.2
308.0
-396.2 (-56.3%)
951.9
566.4
-385.5 (-40.5%)
99.9
47.4
-52.0 (-52.6%)
5.5
5.7
0.2 (-3.6%)
2.0
0.9
-1.1 (-55.0%)
Average daily trade value 1. Change from the end of previous year
9.2 Exchange rate The won/dollar exchange rate in October rose further to close the month at the upper 1,200 won range as spreading global slowdown woes led foreign investors to retrieve their portfolio investments from the Korean stock market and buy dollars to secure dollar liquidity, resulting in a fall in domestic stock prices. Also, liquidation of contracts to hedge against currency fluctuations in overseas investments by locals drove a purchase of dollars, pushing up the exchange rate. In the middle of the month, the exchange rate dropped due to factors that supported the won, such as a rate cut and international collaborations to secure dollar liquidity including the establishment of new currency swap lines. The won/dollar exchange rate surged toward the end of the month to the 1,460 won range, the highest within 126 months. The increase, however, has sharply narrowed as the Korea-US currency swap agreement eased the panic in the market. The won/yen exchange rate jumped to the 1,310 won range amid the won’s depreciation against the strengthening dollar and the strong yen. (End-period) 2005
2006
2007
Dec
Dec
Dec
2008 Sep
Oct
Change1
Won/Dollar
1,011.6
929.8
936.1
1,207.0
1,291.0
-27.5
Won/100Yen
858.5
783.4
828.6
1,157.5
1,316.1
-37.0
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.
24
November 2008
9-1
Stock prices
9-2
Foreign exchange rate (month-end)
9-3
Recent foreign exchange rate 1,500 1,460 1,420 1,380 1,340 1,300 1,260 1,220 1,180 1,140 1,100 1,060 1,020 980 940 900
Economic Bulletin
25
9.3 Bond market Bond yields, mainly Treasury bond yields, fell considerably in October due to worrisome economic slowdowns at home and abroad, interest rate cuts and expected further rate cuts by the Bank of Korea. Yields on corporate bonds have stayed on the upward track for two consecutive months as investor sentiment contracted in fear of credit risks of businesses amid the economic slowdown. (End-period) 2004
2005
2006
2007
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Jul
Aug
2008 Sep
Oct
Change1
Call rate (1 day)
3.29
3.76
4.60
5.02
5.03
5.25
5.22
4.14
-88
CD (91 days)
3.43
4.09
4.86
5.82
5.68
5.79
5.83
5.98
16
Treasury bonds (3 yrs)
3.28
5.08
4.92
5.74
5.80
5.77
5.74
4.47
-127
Corporate bonds (3 yrs)
3.72
5.52
5.29
6.77
6.91
7.34
7.76
8.13
136
Treasury bonds (5 yrs)
3.39
5.36
5.00
5.78
5.86
5.86
5.75
4.72
-106
1. Basis point changes in September 2008 from the previous month
9.4 Money supply & money market M2 in August increased 14.7 percent year-on-year, decelerating slightly from the same month of the previous year as money outflows continued in the overseas sector due to current account deficits while a credit increase in the private sector slowed. (Percentage change from same period in previous year, period average) 2006
2007
2008
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Jul
Aug
Aug1
9.1
8.1
9.4
9.8
8.3
4.8
2.9
4.1
4.7
4.9
339.6
M12 M2
8.3
11.2
11.5
11.0
11.1
11.2
13.3
15.3
14.8
14.7
1,386.1
Lf 3
7.9
10.2
10.0
10.2
10.2
10.5
11.6
12.8
12.1
Upper11
1,801.54
1. Balance, trillion won 2. Excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3) 4. Balance as of end July
In August, bank deposit growth accelerated considerably led by time deposits with higher interest rates for bank deposits and special offers by some banks. Asset management company (AMC) deposits turned to a positive growth as money market funds (MMFs) increased backed by the inflow of spare money from the government sector. (Monthly change, end-period, trillion won) 2007 Jul
Aug
Sep
2008 Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-Aug
Jun
Jul
Aug
Bank deposits
-8.3
4.3
6.5
7.6
11.3
-4.3
68.7
5.3
0.6
15.6
AMC deposits
3.9
4.0
3.3
13.0
14.3
-0.4
65.4
-1.0
-0.3
4.0
26
November 2008
9-4
Interest rates Source: The Bank of Korea
9-5
Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea
9-6
Share of deposits by financial sector (M3 as of year-end) Source: The Bank of Korea * Retail finance: Mutual savings banks & National Credit Union Federation of Korea, Others: Investment banks, post office savings, etc.
Economic Bulletin
27
10. Balance of payments Korea’s current account in September narrowed its deficits significantly to post US$1.22 billion from the previous month’s US$4.7 billion, albeit it had posted deficits for three consecutive months due to the sluggish goods and service accounts. Despite robust export growth of 28 percent, the goods account has posted deficits for two consecutive months as imports surged 46 percent due to higher commodity prices. The good account registered a deficit of US$760 million, after posting a surplus of US$3.73 billion in the same month of the previous year. The service account deficit narrowed to US$1.24 billion in September from US$1.75 billion a year earlier, as the increase in business service deficits were offset by a sharp fall in the travel account deficit due to the won’s depreciation The income account surplus amounted to US$790 million, up US$100 million from the same month of the previous year as overseas dividend income recorded a surplus although the interest income account narrowed its surplus. Dividend income account (US$ billion) 0.06 (Jul 2007)
-0.08 (Aug)
0.00 (Sep), -0.25 (Jul 2008)
-0.24 (Aug)
0.17 (Sep) (US$ billion)
2007 Jul
Aug
2008 Sep
Jan-Sep
Jul
Aug
Sep
Jan-Sep
Current account
1.55
0.57
2.30
2.80
-2.53
-4.70
-1.22
-13.80
- Goods balance
3.04
2.91
3.73
22.68
0.22
-2.80
-0.76
1.16
- Service balance
-1.69
-2.45
-1.75
-16.46
-2.46
-2.00
-1.24
-15.03
- Income balance
0.53
0.44
0.69
-0.57
0.24
0.32
0.79
2.40
- Current transfers
-0.34
-0.33
-0.36
-2.85
-0.54
-0.22
-0.02
-2.32
The capital and financial account balance in September has suffered a net outflow of US$4.78 billion as the portfolio investment account was deep in deficit despite a net inflow in the other investment account. The net outflow of portfolio investment account recorded US$3.35 billion as foreign investors rushed to withdraw their investments from the Korean stock market amid a worsening global credit crisis after the collapse of Lehman Brothers on September 14. Capital & financial account balance (US$ billion) 0.54 (Jul 2007)
-0.3 (Aug)
-3.55 (Aug), -5.77 (Jul 2008)
5.33 (Aug)
-4.78 (Sep)
The current account in October is expected to expand its surplus as the trade surplus of US$1.22 billion turns the goods account to a surplus. Also, the travel account is likely to improve in a larger scale compared to the same month of the previous year, shifting to a surplus for the first time in seven years since April 2001 with the help of the weak won.
28
November 2008
10-1 Current account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
5,000
3,000
1,000
-1,000
-3,000
-5,000
10-2 Travel balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-3 Capital & financial account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend) 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 -2,000 -4,000 -6,000 -8,000 -10,000
Economic Bulletin
29
11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices Consumer prices in October rose by 4.8 percent year-on-year, slowing its growth for the third straight month. In month-on-month terms, consumer prices went down by 0.1 percent mainly as oil product prices dropped 1.5 percent due to a fall in oil prices at local gas station in line with lower international oil prices. The average price of Dubai crude decreased by 30.3 percent in October to US$67.1 a barrel from the previous month’s US$96.3 a barrel. Prices of oil products in Oct 2008 (m-o-m, %) Gasoline (-1.2), diesel (-2.9), kerosene (-4.4)
Prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products declined 2.1 percent from a month earlier contributing to a month-on-month decrease in consumer prices. Prices of several agricultural, livestock and fishery products, including Chinese cabbage, radish and pork, were down affected by decreased demand after Chuseok holidays as well as benign supply amid favorable weather conditions. Price decreases in Oct 2008 (m-o-m, %) Pork (-10.9), Chinese cabbage (-26.8), spinach (-38.5), pear (-21.5), lettuce (-31.1), broccoli (-26.1), radish (-16.7), cabbage (-15.1)
Consumer price inflation in major sectors
Month-on-Month (%) Oct 2008 contribution (%p) Year-on-Year (%) Oct 2008 contribution (%p)
Total
Agricultural, livestock & fishery products
Industrial products
Oil products
Public utility
Housing rents
Personal services
-0.1
-2.1
0.2
-1.5
0.2
0.3
0.2
-
-0.18
0.06
-0.10
0.03
0.03
0.06
4.8
-3.3
9.1
18.1
1.8
2.6
5.4
-
-0.29
2.76
1.03
0.29
0.25
1.88
Core consumer prices, which exclude the prices of oil and agricultural products, rose by 5.2 percent year-on-year as increases in international raw material prices were reflected with some time lag. Consumer prices for basic necessities, a barometer of perceived consumer prices, were up 4.8 percent in October compared to the same month of the previous year.
Consumer price inflation 2007
2008
Oct
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Consumer prices (y-o-y)
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.9
0.6
0.8
0.6
0.7
-0.2
0.1
-0.1
(m-o-m)
2.3
3.9
3.6
3.9
4.1
4.9
5.5
5.9
5.6
5.1
5.8
Core consumer prices (y-o-y)
2.3
2.8
2.8
3.3
3.5
3.9
4.3
4.6
4.7
5.1
5.2
(m-o-m)
0.1
0.6
0.4
1.1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.5
0.1
Consumer prices for basic necessities (y-o-y)
2.7
5.1
4.6
4.9
5.1
5.9
7.0
7.1
6.6
5.5
4.8
30
November 2008
11-1 Prices Source: Korea National Statistical Office (consumer prices, core inflation) & The Bank of Korea (producer prices)
11-2 Consumer price inflation Source: Korea National Statistical Office (consumer price trend)
11-3 Contribution to consumer price inflation Source: Korea National Statistical Office (consumer price trend)
Economic Bulletin
31
11.2. International oil and commodity prices International oil prices in October plunged thanks to the strengthening dollar, the flight of speculative funds amid international financial market unrest, and the prospect that the global economic slowdown would damp oil demand. (US$/barrel, period average) 2005
2006
2007
2008
Annual
Annual
Annual
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Dubai crude
49.4
61.6
68.4
103.6
119.5
127.9
131.3
112.9
96.3
67.7
Brent crude
54.3
65.1
72.8
108.9
122.7
132.7
133.6
113.5
98.2
72.0
WTI crude
56.5
66.0
72.3
112.6
125.4
133.9
133.4
116.6
103.7
76.6
Record high oil prices (spot prices, US$/barrel) Dubai crude: 140.7 (Jul 4, 2008), Brent crude: 144.5 (Jul 3), WTI crude: 145.5 (Jul 14)
Prices of domestic oil products including gasoline and diesel went down from a month earlier in tandem with lower international oil prices. The decrease was, however, limited by the won’s depreciation. (Won/liter, period average) (Won/liter, period average)
2005
2006
2007
2008
Annual
Annual
Annual
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Gasoline prices
1,432
1,492
1,526
1,698
1,803
1,907
1,923
1,785
1,716
1,687
Diesel prices
1,080
1,228
1,273
1,611
1,768
1,910
1,919
1,766
1,664
1,602
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Overall international prices of major non-ferrous metals and grains in October were down month-on-month, dragged by global financial market woes, lower oil prices, and a possible decrease in demand on concerns over the global economic slowdown. Although miners’ strikes in major producing countries including Chile have resulted in supply disruptions, prices of non-ferrous metals plummeted as demand reduced amid falling international oil prices and worries over the global economic slowdown. International grain prices fell dragged by dampened investor sentiment and an expected fall in global demand despite concerns over a possible decrease in cultivated land for grains amid falling grain prices. Prices of non-ferrous metals and agricultural products in Oct 2008 (m-o-m, %) Corn (-24.5), wheat (-20.8), soybean (-21.5), bronze (-30.3), aluminum (-15.4), nickel (-31.2), zinc (-24.4), lead (-20.8), tin (-21.9)
Reuters index*
(Period average)
2005
2006
2007
Annual
Annual
Annual
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
1,680
2,019
2,400
2,773
2,737
2,765
2,775
2,663
2,512
2,014
* A weighted average index of 17 major commodities
32
November 2008
2008
11-4 International oil prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
11-5 International oil prices (Dubai crude) and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation & Korea Customs Service 135,000
135
125,000 115,000 105,000
115
95
95,000 85,000
75
75,000 65,000 55,000
55
35
45,000 35,000
15
11-6 International commodity prices Source: Bloomberg (CRB) & The Bank of Korea (Reuters index) * CRB demonstrates futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry. 470 430 390 350 310 270 230 190 150
Economic Bulletin
33
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market In October, apartment sales prices in the Seoul metropolitan area declined at a faster pace, and nationwide apartment sales prices fell for the first time in 17 months, due mainly to worsening macroeconomic conditions and weakened buying sentiment amid the global financial crisis.
Nationwide apartment sales prices 2004
2005
2006
Annual
Annual
Nationwide
-0.6
5.9
13.8
Seoul
-1.0
9.1
Gangnam2
-1.3
13.5
Gangbuk
3
-0.6
Gyeonggi
-3.7
(Percentage change from previous period) 2007
Annual Annual
2008 May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Oct 61
Oct 131 Oct 201 Oct 271
2.1
0.6
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.2
-0.1
-0.03
-0.08
-0.13
-0.16
24.1
3.6
0.8
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.3
-0.09
-0.16
-0.20
-0.25
27.6
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.5
-0.14
-0.27
-0.30
-0.34
3.2
19.0
8.3
1.4
0.9
0.5
0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.03
-0.04
-0.09
-0.15
7.6
28.4
3.0
0.8
0.7
0.3
0.0
0.1
-0.4
-0.11
-0.21
-0.38
-0.39
1. Weekly trends 2. Upscale area of southern Seoul Source: Kookmin Bank
3. Northern Seoul
The average rental prices of apartment edged up by 0.2 percent month-on-month after growing 0.3 percent in the previous month.
Nationwide apartment rental prices 2004
2005
Annual
Annual
Nationwide
-2.7
5.7
7.6
Seoul
-4.4
6.2
-5.2
8.6
Gangnam Gangbuk
2
2006
(Percentage change from previous period)
2007
Annual Annual
2008 May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Oct 61
Oct 131 Oct 201 Oct 271
1.9
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.02
-0.01
-0.06
-0.12
11.5
2.2
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
-0.2
-0.09
-0.17
-0.18
-0.28
11.3
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.6
-0.16
-0.33
-0.23
-0.32
3
-3.3
2.9
11.8
4.6
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.2
-0.01
0.02
-0.13
-0.23
Gyeonggi
-5.5
10.6
12.4
2.0
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.0
-0.03
-0.07
-0.18
-0.27
1. Weekly trends 2. Upscale area of southern Seoul Source: Kookmin Bank
3. Northern Seoul
Apartment sales transactions in September somewhat reduced from the previous month to 61,000, indicating a month-on-month decrease for the third consecutive month.
Apartment sales transactions 2005
2006
Annual Annual 79
94
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
55
80
80
76
80
70
88
97
82
85
84
63
61
Source: Korea Land Corporation
34
November 2008
(Monthly average, thousand) 2008
2007
12-1 Real estate prices Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
12-2 Weekly apartment sales prices and monthly transaction volume Source: Kookmin Bank (weekly APT price trend) & Korea Land Corporation (monthly land trade trend)
12-3 Apartment prices by region Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
Economic Bulletin
35
12.2 Land market Nationwide land prices in September continued to stabilize with its growth slowed month-on-month to 0.32 percent. Out of 249 cities, counties and districts, 68 areas including 47 in the Seoul metropolitan area witnessed a higher price increase than the national average of 0.32 percent. Nevertheless, the rest stood below the average.
Land prices by region
(Percentage change from previous period)
2005
2007
2006
Annual Annual Annual
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Jan-Sep
Nationwide
4.98
5.61
3.88
0.96
0.79
0.91
1.15
1.23
1.46
0.47
0.42
0.42
0.32
3.92
Seoul
6.56
9.17
5.88
1.38
1.07
1.40
1.90
1.83
2.17
0.66
0.59
0.58
0.39
5.70
Gyeonggi
5.69
5.07
4.22
1.07
0.89
1.05
1.14
1.28
1.57
0.51
0.47
0.46
0.33
4.20
South Chungcheong
8.32
5.54
2.02
0.46
0.41
0.42
0.71
0.75
0.83
0.29
0.31
0.32
0.30
2.55
Nationwide land transactions in September registered 172,853 land lots, down 1.0 percent from the previous month.
Land sales transactions 2004
(Monthly average, land lot, thousand) 2005
2006
2007
2008
Annual Annual Annual Annual Sep
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Nationwide
218
248
237
208
157
216
190
237
269
248
244
245
175
173
Seoul
34
36
44
33
22
24
24
32
41
36
38
34
18
20
Gyeonggi
52
56
63
49
38
44
40
50
61
58
55
57
38
37
North Chungcheong
8
11
9
9
6
10
9
10
11
10
9
11
9
9
South Chungcheong
20
17
12
11
7
10
12
15
13
15
15
14
12
10
36
November 2008
12-4 Land and consumer prices since 1970s Source: Korea Land Corporation (land prices) & Korea National Statistical Office (consumer prices)
12-5 Land prices by region Source: Korea Land Corporation (land price trend)
12-6 Land trade volume Source: Korea Land Corporation (land trade trend)
Economic Bulletin
37
13. Composite indexes of business cycle indicators The cyclical indicator of coincident composite index, a barometer of current economic conditions, decreased 0.3 points from the previous month in September staying on the downward track for eighth strait months. Five out of all components of the index, i.e., the number of non-farm payroll employment, the value of construction completed, service production index, wholesale & retail sales index, and volume of imports were up, while the mining and manufacturing production index (down 1.0%), manufacturing operation ratio index (down 1.3%), and domestic shipment index (down 1.3%) were down. Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (m-o-m, p) -0.4 (Apr 2008)
-0.1 (May)
-0.5 (Jun)
-0.2 (Jul)
-0.3 (Aug)
-0.3 (Sep)
The year-on-year leading composite index, which foresees the future economic conditions, went down for ten months in a row with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2 percentage points in September. Three out of all components of the index, i.e., the consumer expectations index, capital goods imports, and liquidity in the financial institutions were up, while the composite stock price index, value of construction orders received, and value of machinery orders received significantly declined. Six components of the leading composite index fell in Sep 2008 (m-o-m) Ratio of job openings to job seekers (-0.8%p), indicator of inventory cycle (-1.5%p), value of machinery orders received (-8.7%), value of construction orders received (-4.81%), composite stock price index (-5.9%), spreads between long and short-term interest rates (-0.1%p), net barter terms of trade (-0.3%)
However, the leading composite index slightly increased from the previous month. 12 month smoothed change in leading composite index (m-o-m, %p) -0.4 (Apr 2008)
-0.5 (May)
-1.1 (Jun)
-1.1 (Jul)
-0.6 (Aug)
-0.2 (Sep)
Leading composite index 114.0 (Apr 2008)
114.1 (May)
113.6 (Jun)
112.8 (Jul)
112.6 (Aug)
112.7 (Sep)
2008 May
Jun
Jul1
Aug1
Sep1
0.3
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index
100.4
99.9
99.7
99.4
99.1
(m-o-m, p)
-0.1
-0.5
-0.2
-0.3
-0.3
Leading composite index (m-o-m, %)
0.1
-0.4
-0.7
-0.2
0.1
12 month smoothed change in leading composite index (%)
2.3
1.2
0.1
-0.5
-0.7
(m-o-m, %p)
-0.5
-1.1
-1.1
-0.6
-0.2
Coincident composite index (m-o-m, %)
1. Preliminary
38
November 2008
13-1 Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index Source: Korea National Statistical Office
99.1
13-2 Leading composite index Source: Korea National Statistical Office
13-3 Coincident and leading composite indexes Source: Korea National Statistical Office
Economic Bulletin
39
Policy Issues Comprehensive Policy Measures to Overcome the Ongoing Economic Difficulties
I. Background The ongoing global financial turmoil originated from the US subprime mortgage credit crunch is causing concerns over the global economic downturn. Financial market uncertainties have been aggravated and are exerting a knock-on impact on the real economy, resulting in slowing domestic demand and investment. Financial turmoil is appearing to morph into the worldwide economic crisis and prospects for a turnaround over the short horizon look rather dim. Against this background, the Korean government proposes following policy measures to cope with these unprecedented challenges by announcing preemptive, decisive and sufficient counter-measures.
II. Policy measures 1. Measures to stabilize financial and foreign-exchange markets A. Stabilizing the foreign exchange market The government will continue its efforts to mitigate adverse external shocks and secure
40
November 2008
liquidity in the market by increasing bilateral currency swaps and expanding foreign exchange (FX) reserves. In addition to the currency swap agreement between Korea and the US amounting US$30 billion, the Korean government and the Bank of Korea (BOK) will endeavor to expand bilateral swap arrangement with China and Japan. The authorities will also make efforts to expedite the process of the Chiang-Mai Initiative. The government will increase the ceiling of ForeignExchange Stabilization Fund from the current 15 trillion won to 20.6 trillion won, equivalent to twice the amount of daily exchange trading volume. As part of an effort to improve the current account balance, the government will strengthen policies to promote exports. Investments to the Export Insurance Fund will increase and the upper limit of export insurance contracts will be raised from 130 trillion won to 170 trillion won. Additional 20 billion won will be provided to small- and medium-sized exporters to facilitate overseas marketing. The government will also promote export industries by expanding FTA partners. Efforts will be made to expedite FTA negotiations with the EU and to initiate the Korea-India FTA. The government and the BOK will continue their efforts to maintain stability and avoid extreme volatilities in the FX market by smoothing operation. Meanwhile, the Korean government will pursue policy efforts to help financial institutions secure sufficient FX liquidity. As the National Assembly agreed to provide guarantees to the Korean banks’ external debt, the Korean government will complete follow-up measures soon and provide guarantees to foreign currency deposits on the same level as with local currency deposits. In addition, efforts will be made to participate in international cooperation to calm the turbulence in the financial market. The government will participate actively in information sharing and collective actions through the international financial institutions such as the IMF. The government will also make efforts to collaborate with other countries on international finance policies within the ambit of G20, of which Korea is likely to take next chairmanship from the year 2010. B. Stabilizing the financial market The Korean government and the BOK will pursue the following measures to stabilize the Korean financial market. The BOK will provide liquidity to securities firms and asset management companies by purchasing repurchase agreements, and the government will encourage institutional investors’ role in the stock market. The authorities will also continue to implement measures to cope with soaring market interest rates. The BOK has preemptively cut its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points on October 27, before slashing it by 25 basis points to 4.00 percent on November 7, and the government will guide Korean banks to reduce non-deposit funds (e.g. CDs or bonds) to lower lending rates.
Economic Bulletin
41
In addition, the government will pursue the following measures to supply further liquidity to financial institutions. The BOK will provide added liquidity to financial institutions by purchasing repurchase agreements, government bonds and monetary-stabilization bonds. The central bank also plans to diversify its financial assets qualified for open market operation, including bank bonds and certain public corporation bonds (those of Korea Land Corporation, Korea Housing Corporation, Small Business Corporation and Korea Housing Finance Corporation).
2. Measures to stimulate the real economy A. Strengthening fiscal policies to boost domestic demand In response to the economic crisis, the government will adopt expansionary fiscal policies. The total fiscal stimulus package amounts to near 14 trillion won, including 11 trillion won of public expenditures and 3 trillion won of tax reductions. The Korean government will expand public expenditures by 11 trillion won to support low income class and local economies, out of which 4.6 trillion won will be invested in SOC projects. About 90 percent of the additional expenditures will be spent to build local infrastructure to invigorate local economies. 3.4 trillion won will be paid out to ease financial distress of SMEs, small business owners, farmers and fishermen. 0.3 trillion won will be spent to tackle unemployment problems and support small business start-ups. 1 trillion won will be shelled out to support low income households and 1.1 trillion won will be provided to local government expenditures. Besides the government expenditure, public enterprises will also expand their investments by 1 trillion won. The government also plans to provide additional tax supports to facilitate investments. Temporary Investment Tax Credit will be extended for one more year until December 2009, and new investments inside the Population Control Zone will enjoy tax benefits. Current uniform deduction rate (7%) will be differentiated region by region. 5 percent deduction will be applied to investments within Population Control Zones, while 10 percent will be applied to investments in other areas. In order to strengthen counter-cyclical measures, the Korean government plans to front-load its spending as much as possible. The target range will be around 60 percent for the first half. B. Revitalizing real estate markets and construction activities A potential sharp drop in asset prices may undermine financial health of Korean financial institutions. Against this backdrop, the government will pursue efforts to revitalize the real estate market.
42
November 2008
The government will relax stringent requirements imposed upon reconstruction of apartment buildings, such as the Small Size Apartment Ratios or the Rental Housing Apartment Ratios. It is also going to drastically reduce the total number of designated Overheated (Real Estate) Speculation Zones and Speculation-Prone Zones where strict monitoring and leveraging conditions are imposed. Overheated (Real Estate) Speculation Zones will be limited to Gangnam-gu, Songpa-gu, and Seocheo-gu in Seoul. Speculation-Prone Zones will also be limited to these three districts. The lock-up period for trading exclusive apartment purchase rights in the Seoul metropolitan area will be eased retrospectively and will be applied to apartments already sold. In addition, the Korean government will provide tax benefits for acquisition of nonmetropolitan unsold houses. For homeowners purchasing additional houses in nonmetropolitan areas, normal tax rates will be applied and Long-Term Special Deductions (up to 80%) will be allowed for the next two years. Tax relief on equity sales tax will also expand. Multiple housing acquirements, in such unavoidable cases as working away, moving for medical treatment, etc. will be treated as owning a single house and thus will avoid heavy taxation. Residential requirements for single homeowners to get sales tax deductions will remain at current level. Also, the Korea Credit Guarantee Fund (KCGF) will provide additional liquidity to construction companies by guaranteeing the government construction contract credit up to 30 billion won per company. For housing construction companies in arrears with building lot payments to the Korea Land Corporation, the government plans to cut the overdue interest. C. Promoting investments through reforming regulations With a view to promote corporate investment, the Korean government will streamline and reduce excessive regulations regarding environment, land use, and labor issues. Regulations upon plant establishment, facility expansion or relocation in the Industrial Complex within Growth Management Zones and Population Control Zones will be repealed. Restrictions on plant facility expansion outside the Industrial Complex will also be lifted drastically. Ban on large scale building construction inside the Wilderness Areas will be lifted on condition that such buildings meet pollution mass control limits. The supply of industrial sites will increase inside Growth Management Zones, while the entire Incheon Free Economic Zone (IFEZ) will be designated as a Growth Management Zone. Environmental regulations deemed excessive compared to those of competing countries will be reviewed and streamlined. Regulations within the Environment Protection Zones will be converted from location restrictions to total mass emission control. The government will also make efforts to enhance labor market flexibility. The employment system for temporary workers and dispatched workers will be improved and complementary
Economic Bulletin
43
measures to ease the burden of enterprises will be considered. Furthermore, the government plans to encourage new investments and facilitate job creation through service sector regulation reform. The Korean government will continue efforts to increase the competitiveness of high value-added services such as broadcasting, advertising and designing, and lower entry barriers for services such as education and medical services.
3. Measures to support SMEs and low income families The government will strive to ease financial distress of SMEs in order to protect viable enterprises from falling into liquidity traps. Efforts will also be made to alleviate burden on households, by lowering interest rates and strengthening financial support. The Korean government will provide 1.3 trillion won to state owned banks, such as the Korea Development Bank, the Industrial Bank of Korea, and the Korea Exim Bank in order to lend financial assistance to SMEs. The government will also expand credit guarantees to SMEs by 6 trillion won by contributing 500 billion won to the Korea Credit Guarantee Fund (KCGF) and the Korea Technology Guarantee Fund (KTGF). Additional 1.5 trillion credit guarantees will be provided by the Regional Credit Guarantee Fund. To ease financial distress of small- and medium-sized exporters, the Korean government will increase financial aid through the Korea Exim Bank (from 7.5 trillion won in 2008 to 8.5 trillion won in 2009) and expand FX insurance loans and export insurances by 3.5 trillion won. It will pursue efforts to support small businessmen, farmers and fishermen. The government will provide financial aid, education and consulting supports and business start-up services. The Korean government will encourage banks to roll over loans for viable SMEs by signing MOUs, as a follow up measure for the government guarantee on banks' external debt. By subscribing additional 100 billion won to the Korea Housing Finance Corp. (KHFC), the government will help lower mortgage loan interest rates. The government will encourage KHFC to convert floating-rate loans to fixed-rate loans, and increase long-term fixed-rate mortgage loan supplies. The government will also strengthen its efforts to tackle youth unemployment problems, by expanding internship programs and enhancing job training programs. The Korean government will reinforce its welfare support for the low income families. Financial aids for the unemployed and scholarship programs for low income students will expand. In addition, the Korean government will encourage credit card companies to lower their fees for small retailers.
44
November 2008
III. Action plans Market stabilization measures not requiring legislative measures will be put into action as soon as possible. Also, steps for fiscal expansion will be made during the National Assembly season within this year. The Korean government will propose a revised budget after further discussions through the Government-Party consultations, and revision process to ease real-estate regulations will be handled by the ruling party after Government-Party consultations. Extending the Temporary Investment Tax Credit expiration to the end of year 2009 will be made by the end of this year, with the revision of the 'Special Tax Treatment Control Enforcement Decree'. Also, Revision bills on labor market flexibility will be submitted to the National Assembly soon after exchanging opinions with diverse stakeholders.
Economic Bulletin
45
Economic News Briefing
GDP expands 3.9 percent in Q3 (Advance) South Korea’s real GDP increased 0.6 percent in the third quarter of 2008 compared with the previous quarter, after expanding 0.8 percent a quarter earlier. The slowdown was mainly due to sluggish exports amid the global economic downturn and growth deceleration in the manufacturing sector. It expanded by 3.9 percent from a year earlier in the July-September period.
GDP by production and expenditure*
(Percentage change from same period in pervious year)
20071
20081
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
GDP
5.0
1.0 (4.0)
1.7 (4.9)
1.5 (5.1)
1.6 (5.7)
0.8 (5.8)
0.8 (4.8)
0.6 (3.9)
Agriculture, forestry and fishery
1.1
0.8
-1.0
0.9
-1.1
0.5
2.0
-1.3 (0.4)
Manufacturing
6.5
0.4
3.1
2.5
2.9
0.7
2.2
0.4 (6.4)
Construction
1.8
0.2
-0.8
0.6
1.0
-0.5
-2.4
1.5 (-0.3)
Services3
4.8
1.1
1.4
1.5
0.8
0.5
0.5
0.2 (2.1)
Private consumption
4.5
1.6
0.9
1.3
0.8
0.4
-0.2
0.1 (1.1)
Facility investment
7.6
4.5
1.6
-1.8
2.1
-0.4
0.9
2.3 (4.9)
Construction investment
1.2
-0.3
-1.2
0.2
1.2
-1.4
-1.0
0.3 (-0.9)
Goods exports4
12.0
3.3
4.3
1.8
7.4
-1.8
4.3
-1.8 (8.1)
Goods imports4
10.9
4.0
5.9
-2.4
9.9
-1.9
4.2
-1.7 (10.4)
GDI
3.9
-0.3
1.4
1.3
0.3
-2.1
1.4
-3.0 (-3.2)
*At 2000 constant prices, seasonally adjusted terms 1. Preliminary 2. Figures in parenthesis denote percentage changes from the same period in the previous year in original terms. 3. Wholesale & retail sales, hotels & restaurants, transportation & storage, communication services, financial & insurance services, real estate, business services, public administration, defense & social security, educational services, healthcare & social welfare services and other services are included. 4. FOB basis
46
November 2008
On the production side, the manufacturing sector slowed its on-quarter growth to 0.4 percent from the previous month’s 2.2 percent, while the service sector edged up 0.2 percent, a deceleration from 0.5 percent growth a quarter earlier. On the expenditure side, private consumption continued to be sluggish with a mere increase of 0.1 percent, while exports of goods reversed course from a 4.3 percent increase to post a 1.8 percent decline amid the global economic downturn.
US$30 billion swap line established between Korea and the US The US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Korea (BOK) agreed to establish a US$30 billion temporary reciprocal currency arrangement (swap line). As a result, South Korea will be able to secure supplies of up to US$30 billion from the US in exchange for deposits in won. This reciprocal currency arrangement has been authorized through April 30, 2009. The latest currency swap agreements, which the Federal Reserve concluded also with Brazil, Mexico and Singapore, were aimed at addressing the global financial market's liquidity problems and helping those countries with solid economic fundamentals overcome difficulties in securing dollar liquidity. The Federal Reserve previously established swap lines with ten other central banks of Australia, Canada, Denmark, the EU, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK. The Korean government has strongly called for the need to expand swap lines to include emerging economies and welcomed this agreement between the Bank of Korea and the Federal Reserve. The swap line with the US is expected to greatly contribute to easing the anxiety stemming from the global credit crisis and stabilizing the Korean financial market.
President Lee calls for closer cooperation to weather the financial crisis at international summits South Korean President Lee Myung-bak reiterated the importance of international cooperation in his keynote speech at the G20 summit held on November 15 to 16 in Washington, citing public fears over the possible spread of trade protectionism. In his speech, President Lee set forth visions for overcoming the current financial turmoil. He called on major economic powers to increase foreign currency liquidity to newly emerging economies through currency swap deals, and stressed the need to consider introducing an IMF system of guaranteeing borrowings of non-G20 countries. Also, in a keynote speech at the opening session of the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) summit held in Beijing on October 24 to 25, President Lee Myung-bak called for overhauling the roles and functions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank in order for the world to weather the financial crisis and prevent a recurrence of a similar crisis in the future.
Economic Bulletin
47
Ahead of the ASEM summit, leaders of South Korea, China, Japan and 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) met over breakfast in Beijing and agreed to create an US$80 billion joint fund by next June to fight regional financial crises. On the sidelines of the ASEM conference, President Lee also held separate talks with leaders from France, Poland, Denmark, Vietnam and Japan to further develop bilateral cooperation.
S. Korean builders win $40 billion in overseas orders The volume of overseas construction orders won by South Korean enterprises exceeded the US$40 billion mark, said the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs. Overseas construction orders amounted to $40.4 billion as of October 7, higher than the annual record high of $39.8 billion posted in 2007. The construction ministry said the Korean builders’ overseas construction projects keep contributing significantly to the national economy amid the economic slowdown triggered by the US financial turmoil. The ministry expected that Korean builders will continue to win overseas projects mainly in the Middle East, which has sufficient holding of oil money. To support Korean builders’ efforts to win overseas orders, the ministry plans to take high-level diplomatic initiatives with major countries in the Middle East, Latin America, Southeast Asia and Africa, and to showcase Korea’s technologies.
The S. Korea-ASEAN FTA takes effect The South Korea-Cambodia free trade agreement (FTA) on goods has taken effect from November 1, following the notification by Phnom Penh that all domestic administrative and legal processes have been completed for the trade agreement. The Korean-ASEAN product trade agreement went into effect June of last year. With the Cambodian implementation, the pact will now affect nine ASEAN member countries.
48
November 2008
Statistical Appendices Tables & Figures 1. National accounts 2. Production, shipment and inventory 3. Production capacity and operation ratio 4. Consumer goods sales index 5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment, and estimated facility investment index 7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received 8. Composite indexes of business cycle indicators and BSI 9. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment and earnings 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates
Economic Bulletin
49
1. National accounts (year-on-year change, %, 2000 constant prices) Real GDP Period
Gross fixed capital formation
Final consumption expenditure
Agri., fores. & fisheries
Manufacturing
1.2
17.0
7.1
Construction
Facilities
12.2
-0.8
33.6 -9.0
2000
8.5
2001
3.8
1.1
2.2
4.9
-0.2
6.0
2002
7.0
-3.5
7.6
7.6
6.6
5.3
7.5
2003
3.1
-5.3
5.5
-0.3
4.0
7.9
-1.2
2004
4.7
9.2
11.1
0.4
2.1
1.1
3.8
2005
4.2
0.7
7.1
3.9
2.4
-0.2
5.7
2006
5.0
-1.5
8.5
4.8
3.6
-0.1
7.8
2007P
5.0
1.1
6.5
4.7
4.0
1.2
7.6
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007P
2008P
I
6.5
6.7
5.2
9.4
7.7
11.0
3.3
II
7.0
-2.7
6.2
8.5
7.3
6.0
8.0
III
6.8
-3.2
7.4
7.3
2.4
-2.4
9.1
IV
7.5
-5.5
11.4
5.3
9.1
8.4
9.6
I
3.8
-3.3
5.8
1.2
4.7
7.7
2.3
II
2.2
0.5
3.3
-0.6
4.2
7.9
-0.4
III
2.3
-7.8
4.2
-1.0
2.7
7.7
-4.6
IV
4.1
-6.9
8.6
-0.9
4.3
8.3
-2.0
I
5.4
10.1
11.9
-0.4
2.4
4.9
-0.1
II
5.7
4.2
13.6
0.7
4.7
3.8
6.4
III
4.7
4.3
11.7
0.1
2.9
1.0
6.8
IV
3.3
13.3
7.7
1.3
-1.1
-3.3
2.4 3.8
I
2.9
-0.1
5.4
2.0
0.5
-3.3
II
3.4
3.1
5.1
3.9
2.1
1.1
3.1
III
4.8
1.9
7.5
4.8
2.2
-0.1
5.0
IV
5.5
-0.5
10.1
4.9
4.3
0.4
10.8
I
6.3
2.8
10.1
5.4
4.2
1.1
7.1
II
5.2
-2.2
9.6
4.6
0.2
-5.3
7.5
III
5.0
-4.1
9.0
4.7
5.1
0.2
11.4
IV
4.2
-0.9
5.6
4.6
4.9
3.6
5.4
I
4.0
5.8
3.8
4.5
7.2
3.7
10.9
II
4.9
1.1
6.1
4.9
5.5
1.6
11.0
III
5.1
3.5
6.3
4.7
1.3
-0.1
2.3
IV
5.7
-0.7
9.5
4.8
2.9
0.4
6.5
I
5.8
2.0
9.3
3.5
0.5
-1.1
1.4
II
4.8
4.4
8.5
2.7
0.1
-1.2
0.7
III
3.9
0.4
6.4
1.7
1.8
-0.9
4.9
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
50
November 2008
Growth rate by economic activity
Growth rate by expenditure on GDP
Economic Bulletin
51
2. Production, shipment and inventory See graphs 6-1, 6-3, 7-1, 7-2 & 7-3 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
2006 2007
Production index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Shipment index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Inventory index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Service production index
Y-o-Y change (%)
108.4 115.8
8.4 6.8
107.6 115.2
7.6 7.1
110.8 117.2
9.3 5.7
105.5 112.3
5.5 6.4
2006
I II III IV
105.3 108.1 106.4 113.8
10.5 9.0 9.9 4.8
104.2 107.6 106.0 112.8
8.8 8.1 9.4 4.5
108.6 110.0 109.5 111.0
9.3 11.7 11.1 9.3
101.5 105.0 105.2 110.4
6.4 6.0 4.7 5.1
2007
I II III IV
109.5 114.8 112.7 126.1
4.0 6.2 5.9 10.8
109.5 115.0 111.7 124.5
5.1 6.9 5.4 10.4
114.0 114.3 112.4 117.3
5.0 3.9 2.6 5.7
107.0 111.4 112.8 117.9
5.4 6.1 7.2 6.8
2008
I II IIIP
121.1 124.7 119.0
10.6 8.6 5.6
119.2 122.3 117.7
8.9 6.3 5.4
124.3 133.2 132.0
9.0 16.5 17.4
113.8 116.5 115.9
6.4 4.6 2.7
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
103.8 100.4 111.8 107.0 109.5 107.9 99.8 104.3 115.0 110.8 118.5 112.0
5.6 18.7 8.6 7.8 9.8 9.3 1.5 10.0 17.9 4.8 7.0 2.1
101.8 99.7 111.1 106.6 108.8 107.5 98.5 104.8 114.6 109.3 117.0 112.0
4.2 15.7 7.3 6.8 9.9 7.9 1.0 9.5 17.5 4.1 6.9 2.6
107.0 106.6 108.6 107.5 110.1 110.0 112.5 109.6 109.5 109.6 110.2 111.0
4.6 6.8 9.3 7.0 7.6 11.7 11.6 11.8 11.1 11.2 10.6 9.3
101.8 96.8 106.0 104.3 106.3 104.3 102.4 105.0 108.3 106.0 108.7 116.4
7.0 6.4 6.0 6.5 6.4 4.7 2.3 5.1 6.7 3.9 5.7 5.6
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
112.7 100.2 115.5 113.6 115.7 115.0 113.3 113.5 111.4 128.4 127.5 122.5
8.6 -0.2 3.3 6.2 5.7 6.6 13.5 8.8 -3.1 15.9 7.6 9.4
110.2 101.6 116.7 114.4 115.9 114.8 112.4 112.3 110.4 126.1 125.9 121.6
8.3 1.9 5.0 7.3 6.6 6.8 14.1 7.2 -3.7 15.4 7.6 8.6
118.5 115.5 114.0 111.8 114.1 114.3 115.3 115.3 112.4 114.7 114.9 117.3
10.7 8.3 5.0 4.0 3.6 3.9 2.5 5.2 2.6 4.7 4.3 5.7
106.1 103.2 111.7 109.6 112.2 112.3 112.2 113.1 113.0 115.1 115.6 123.1
4.2 6.6 5.4 5.1 5.6 7.7 9.6 7.7 4.3 8.6 6.3 5.8
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8P 9P
125.3 110.5 127.4 125.7 125.7 122.6 123.1 115.6 118.2
11.2 10.3 10.3 10.7 8.6 6.6 8.7 1.9 6.1
121.2 109.4 126.9 124.1 123.1 119.8 121.7 114.4 116.9
10.0 7.7 8.7 8.5 6.2 4.4 8.3 1.9 5.9
124.0 124.6 124.3 125.2 129.1 133.2 132.2 131.9 132.0
4.6 7.9 9.0 12.0 13.1 16.5 14.7 14.4 17.4
114.0 109.3 118.1 116.2 117.6 115.6 116.6 114.8 116.4
7.4 5.9 5.7 6.0 4.8 2.9 3.9 1.5 3.0
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
52
November 2008
3. Production capacity and operation ratio See graph 6-2
Period
2006 2007
Y-o-Y change (%)
Operation ratio index (2005=100)
Y-o-Y change (%)
Average operation ratio (%)
104.1 109.5
4.1 5.2
100.3 100.5
0.3 0.2
80.0 80.3
Production capacity index (2005=100)
2006
I II III IV
102.9 103.6 104.0 105.8
4.8 4.2 3.7 3.6
99.3 101.9 97.9 102.0
2.4 0.9 1.3 -3.2
81.0 79.6 79.1 80.3
2007
I II III IV
107.3 108.2 110.0 112.5
4.3 4.4 5.8 6.3
97.3 102.8 96.3 105.6
-2.0 0.9 -1.6 3.5
79.4 80.7 80.0 81.0
2008
I II IIIP
113.6 114.9 115.4
5.9 6.2 4.9
99.0 102.7 95.7
1.7 -0.1 -0.6
81.1 81.0 78.5
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
102.7 102.8 103.3 103.3 103.8 103.8 103.7 103.9 104.4 105.4 105.8 106.1
4.9 4.8 4.9 4.3 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5
97.3 95.0 105.6 100.8 103.0 101.8 91.6 95.3 106.9 99.8 107.3 98.8
-3.4 11.5 0.4 -0.8 2.1 1.3 -7.5 1.2 10.8 -4.5 -0.6 -4.6
82.1 80.4 80.6 79.4 79.1 80.2 75.0 80.1 82.1 81.4 80.7 78.8
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.1 107.3 107.6 107.7 108.1 108.7 109.4 110.0 110.6 112.2 112.4 112.8
4.3 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.7 5.5 5.9 5.9 6.5 6.2 6.3
98.8 88.4 103.7 101.6 104.0 102.7 98.4 96.6 93.8 109.4 107.4 99.9
2.6 -6.9 -1.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 7.4 1.4 -12.3 9.6 0.1 1.1
79.1 79.7 79.3 80.1 81.0 80.9 80.5 81.0 78.6 81.6 80.6 80.9
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8P 9P
113.5 113.4 113.9 114.3 115.0 115.3 115.3 115.4 115.6
6.0 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.4 6.1 5.4 4.9 4.5
103.0 89.3 104.6 104.1 103.0 100.9 100.2 92.5 94.5
3.2 1.0 0.9 2.5 -1.0 -1.8 1.8 -4.2 -0.7
81.8 80.3 81.1 82.2 80.3 80.5 79.7 78.5 77.3
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
Economic Bulletin
53
4. Consumer goods sales index See graphs 2-2, 2-3, 2-4 & 2-5 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
2006 2007
Consumer goods sales index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Y-o-Y change (%)
Semi-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
104.1 109.6
4.1 5.3
111.2 123.4
11.2 11.0
103.0 106.0
3.0 2.9
101.7 105.5
1.7 3.7
2006
I II III IV
100.9 104.2 100.3 110.8
4.7 5.6 3.1 3.0
102.0 110.2 113.2 119.4
13.8 11.8 11.7 8.1
96.9 105.1 90.7 119.2
3.7 3.4 2.7 2.2
102.2 101.4 99.1 103.9
1.8 3.9 -0.2 1.2
2007
I II III IV
106.7 108.6 107.4 115.8
5.7 4.2 7.1 4.5
118.0 123.6 124.6 127.6
15.7 12.2 10.1 6.9
100.4 107.4 93.6 122.7
3.6 2.2 3.2 2.9
104.6 103.1 106.1 108.1
2.3 1.7 7.1 4.0
2008
I Il IIIP
110.9 111.3 108.5
3.9 2.5 1.0
127.7 133.0 124.3
8.2 7.6 -0.2
105.8 105.7 95.1
5.4 -1.6 1.6
106.2 104.8 107.6
1.5 1.6 1.4
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
105.1 93.6 104.1 102.8 106.0 103.9 96.8 98.4 105.8 106.4 109.7 116.4
9.5 0.5 3.9 5.0 6.1 5.7 -0.6 4.7 5.3 4.2 3.6 1.5
97.1 99.1 110.0 105.7 110.1 114.7 107.3 112.9 119.4 110.8 122.3 125.2
9.0 20.0 13.3 9.9 11.9 13.3 -2.3 13.0 26.6 8.8 10.6 5.1
98.2 90.7 102.0 107.8 110.0 97.6 91.3 79.5 101.3 111.3 119.2 127.2
4.4 3.0 4.2 3.8 4.1 2.4 1.9 3.0 3.2 -1.5 4.7 3.2
111.2 92.6 102.7 99.6 102.7 102.0 94.8 100.4 102.2 102.7 100.7 108.4
11.8 -6.8 0.3 3.5 4.6 3.8 -0.7 1.9 -1.7 5.0 0.0 -1.0
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
106.2 103.5 110.3 106.9 111.5 107.5 105.4 104.1 112.6 113.4 114.5 119.4
1.0 10.6 6.0 4.0 5.2 3.5 8.9 5.8 6.4 6.6 4.4 2.6
117.3 109.7 126.8 119.5 125.7 125.7 128.9 125.4 119.4 121.6 129.3 131.9
20.8 10.7 15.3 13.1 14.2 9.6 20.1 11.1 0.0 9.7 5.7 5.4
98.9 95.1 107.3 108.7 112.5 101.0 93.8 81.4 105.5 117.3 122.5 128.3
0.7 4.9 5.2 0.8 2.3 3.5 2.7 2.4 4.1 5.4 2.8 0.9
104.7 104.4 104.8 101.0 105.4 102.8 100.7 104.8 112.8 108.4 105.3 110.7
-5.8 12.7 2.0 1.4 2.6 0.8 6.2 4.4 10.4 5.6 4.6 2.1
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8P 9P
111.1 106.5 115.1 112.7 114.8 106.4 109.5 105.6 110.4
4.6 2.9 4.4 5.4 3.0 -1.0 3.9 1.4 -2.0
125.9 116.1 141.0 137.6 135.4 126.1 138.2 120.3 114.4
7.3 5.8 11.2 15.1 7.7 0.3 7.2 -4.1 -4.2
107.8 100.9 108.6 107.4 109.5 100.1 97.5 88.8 99.0
9.0 6.1 1.2 -1.2 -2.7 -0.9 3.9 9.1 -6.2
106.4 104.9 107.3 104.8 108.6 100.9 102.7 106.5 113.5
1.6 0.5 2.4 3.8 3.0 -1.8 2.0 1.7 0.6
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
54
Durable goods
November 2008
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index See graph 2-6
Period
2006 2007
Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2005=100) Y-o-Y change (%)
Consumer sentiment index Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Present Expectations situation index index
106.6 112.7
6.6 5.7
110.4 124.7
10.4 13.0
105.0 107.9
5.0 2.8
-
-
2006
I II III IV
102.5 103.0 108.7 112.1
7.7 6.6 8.1 4.2
101.9 106.5 112.4 120.8
13.6 9.7 11.5 7.5
102.7 101.6 107.2 108.6
5.3 5.4 6.7 2.8
-
-
2007
I II III IV
110.6 110.8 111.2 118.3
7.9 7.6 2.3 5.5
119.3 122.6 123.2 133.8
17.1 15.1 9.6 10.8
107.2 106.0 106.3 112.2
4.4 4.3 -0.8 3.3
-
-
2008
I II IIIP
117.3 116.7 114.7
6.1 5.3 3.1
133.9 138.3 125.4
12.2 12.8 1.8
110.6 108.1 110.4
3.2 1.9 3.9
-
-
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
103.4 96.6 107.4 101.4 103.9 103.6 99.7 106.5 119.8 108.8 114.4 113.1
3.7 12.5 7.3 5.6 7.9 6.3 1.5 5.4 16.8 2.8 6.8 3.0
96.8 99.0 110.0 100.3 106.0 113.3 100.6 109.7 126.8 116.7 123.5 122.2
7.8 21.8 12.2 6.9 10.0 12.0 -3.8 11.5 27.6 6.7 8.9 6.8
106.0 95.7 106.3 101.9 103.1 99.7 99.4 105.2 116.9 105.6 110.8 109.5
2.2 9.0 5.4 5.2 7.1 3.9 4.0 3.1 12.6 1.2 5.9 1.4
104.5 103.8 103.4 100.6 98.0 97.4 94.3 93.7 94.8 93.9 95.2 93.7
88.4 89.0 90.1 87.2 83.0 81.9 78.7 77.8 78.9 80.7 77.3 77.1
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
114.3 103.8 113.8 111.2 112.7 108.4 109.6 112.6 111.3 121.4 117.2 116.4
10.5 7.5 6.0 9.7 8.5 4.6 9.9 5.7 -7.1 11.6 2.4 2.9
117.3 112.9 127.6 119.5 125.5 122.7 124.5 124.5 120.7 137.0 132.8 131.5
21.2 14.0 16.0 19.1 18.4 8.3 23.8 13.5 -4.8 17.4 7.5 7.6
113.1 100.1 108.3 107.9 107.5 102.6 103.6 107.8 107.6 115.2 111.0 110.3
6.7 4.6 1.9 5.9 4.3 2.9 4.2 2.5 -8.0 9.1 0.2 0.7
96.1 98.1 97.8 100.1 101.1 101.5 102.6 103.0 103.2 103.3 102.0 104.0
79.3 82.3 83.3 87.4 89.6 90.4 91.4 91.4 92.0 92.5 88.0 85.1
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
124.2 106.6 121.0 120.5 116.9 112.7 119.5 112.3P 112.3P
8.7 2.7 6.3 8.4 3.7 4.0 9.0 -0.3P 0.9P
132.8 123.5 145.3 145.5 138.7 130.6 138.3 120.4P 117.4P
13.2 9.4 13.9 21.8 10.5 6.4 11.1 -3.3P -2.7P
120.8 99.8 111.2 110.5 108.1 105.5 112.0 109.0P 110.2P
6.8 -0.3 2.7 2.4 0.6 2.8 8.1 1.1P 2.4P
105.9 103.1 99.7 100.4 92.2 86.8 84.6 91.2 -
82.7 81.8 76.4 80.0 72.2 61.3 59.2 68.4 -
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
Economic Bulletin
55
6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment and estimated facility investment index See graph 3-2 Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant prices) Period
2007
Domestic machinery shipment excluding ship (2005=100)
Total
Public
Private
34,143
2,205
31,938
17,424
126.5
114.0
Manufacturing
2007
I II III IV
8,145 7,849 8,139 10,012
342 292 484 1,087
7,803 7,556 7,655 8,924
3,873 3,825 4,257 5,470
127.0 130.7 118.2 130.0
109.8 119.3 106.3 120.5
2008
I ll IIIP
10,197 8,541 7,550
372 536 354
9,825 8,005 7,196
5,429 3,667 3,395
125.9 130.8 125.5
111.2 120.2 113.1
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2,639 2,812 2,694 2,473 2,598 2,778 2,613 2,425 3,101 3,735 3,234 3,043
89 150 103 94 91 107 170 128 186 89 217 781
2,550 2,661 2,591 2,378 2,506 2,671 2,442 2,297 2,916 3,646 3,017 2,262
1,294 1,390 1,189 1,220 1,204 1,401 1,239 1,115 1,902 2,481 1,846 1,144
121.6 120.3 139.1 137.2 130.0 125.1 120.1 122.4 112.1 121.8 129.2 139.0
103.9 102.2 123.3 114.0 122.5 121.4 111.0 104.9 102.9 112.9 120.0 128.6
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8P 9P
3,810 3,044 3,343 2,914 2,675 2,952 3,153 2,330 2,067
149 68 155 95 90 351 179 87 88
2,197 1,723 1,510 1,302 1,101 1,264 1,392 1,114 889
119.4 118.0 140.3 134.6 127.3 130.5 132.0 124.4 120.3
105.7 102.6 125.2 119.3 121.8 119.4 119.3 107.6 112.5
21.1
-11.2
24.2
31.9
8.6
2.9
2007
3,661 2,976 3,188 2,819 2,585 2,601 2,974 2,243 1,979 Y-o-Y change (%)
2007
I II III IV
18.9 7.1 19.1 39.3
13.9 -47.7 -26.9 12.9
19.1 11.6 24.0 43.4
13.2 7.7 37.6 74.4
12.8 11.9 0.7 9.2
5.9 2.4 -1.7 4.8
2008
I ll IIIP
25.2 8.8 -7.2
8.8 83.4 -26.8
25.9 5.9 -6.0
40.2 -4.1 -20.2
-0.9 0.1 6.2
1.3 0.8 6.4
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
29.2 20.0 9.3 3.3 15.6 3.3 35.3 5.1 19.5 42.5 46.7 28.8
5.8 53.6 -13.1 -0.3 -3.0 -71.1 117.5 -46.7 -45.9 -85.1 174.0 174.9
30.2 18.5 10.5 3.4 16.5 15.2 31.8 11.1 29.4 80.3 42.0 8.8
34.7 17.0 -6.6 -0.8 11.6 12.7 41.1 9.4 59.0 140.5 81.9 4.9
18.6 14.5 6.9 15.6 8.8 11.3 2.2 3.5 -3.7 7.0 10.4 10.1
8.9 3.7 5.3 3.3 0.1 3.9 9.5 -2.0 -11.1 8.2 3.4 3.2
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8P 9P
44.4 8.3 24.1 17.9 3.0 6.3 20.7 -3.9 -33.4
67.8 -54.7 50.6 1.3 -1.5 228.1 5.3 -31.8 -52.7
43.5 11.8 23.0 18.5 3.1 -2.6 21.8 -2.4 -32.1
69.8 23.9 27.0 6.8 -8.6 -9.8 12.3 -0.1 -53.3
-1.8 -1.9 0.9 -1.9 -2.1 4.4 9.9 1.5 7.3
1.7 0.4 1.5 4.6 -0.6 -1.6 7.5 2.6 9.3
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
56
Estimated facility investment index (2000=100)
November 2008
7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received See graphs 4-2 & 4-3 (current prices, billion won)
Period
2007
Type of order
Type of order
Private
Domestic construction orders received (total)
Public
Private
25,096
54,476
108,559
27,454
75,285
Value of construction completed (total)
Public
82,950
2007
I II III IV
17,306 20,878 20,183 24,582
4,940 6,345 6,103 7,708
11,783 13,723 13,280 15,690
20,678 26,839 21,768 39.274
5,683 5,025 4,462 12,285
14,893 19,649 15,740 25,002
2008
I ll IIIP
18,314 22,238 22,429
5,279 6,570 6,498
12,128 14,377 14,776
19,868 25,193 16,795
6,820 5,961 4,607
12,661 18,499 10,626
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5,498 5,307 6,501 6,743 6,810 7,326 6,597 6,759 6,829 7,364 7,882 9,337
1,473 1,533 1,934 1,922 2,119 2,305 1,963 1,953 2,185 2,075 2,432 3,201
3,854 3,602 4,328 4,515 4,462 4,745 4,381 4,542 4,357 4,967 5,094 5,629
6,411 6,326 7,942 7,841 7,096 11,902 6,060 6,586 9,122 10,691 12,311 16,272
1,562 1,830 2,291 1,789 1,621 1,615 1,491 1,354 1,616 3,286 3,694 5,304
4,822 4,488 5,584 5,733 4,891 9,025 3,685 4,874 7,181 7,094 7,792 10,117
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8P 9P
6,090 5,480 6,745 7,033 7,336 7,869 7,269 7,312 7,848
1,721 1,519 2,040 1,967 2,224 2,379 2,031 2,139 2,329
5,570 5,931 8,367 7,646 8,432 9,115 5,274 6,084 5,436
1,619 1,894 3,306 1,715 2,474 1,772 1,360 1,505 1,742
3,904 3,820 4,937 5,745 5,780 6,973 3,386 4,363 2,877
6.6
8.4
19.3
34.2
13.1
2007
4,074 3,692 4,362 4,627 4,732 5,018 4,825 4,822 5,129 Y-o-Y change (%) 4.5
2007
I II III IV
7.9 6.0 4.4 8.0
21.1 12.2 3.0 2.8
3.1 2.3 3.6 8.4
26.3 26.3 -5.6 29.5
49.3 21.2 7.3 47.2
21.8 17.0 -12.9 28.6
2008
I ll IIIP
5.8 6.5 11.1
6.9 3.5 6.5
2.9 4.8 11.3
-3.9 -6.1 -22.8
20.0 18.6 3.3
-15.0 -5.9 -32.5
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
12.9 9.1 3.0 7.0 6.2 4.9 13.2 8.6 -6.3 8.8 5.9 9.2
18.1 27.0 19.0 8.4 16.4 11.9 14.9 5.0 -7.3 -4.6 8.8 3.7
11.3 3.1 -3.3 4.0 1.7 1.2 10.6 8.2 -6.5 13.0 2.8 9.8
9.7 40.1 32.0 48.9 5.2 28.8 -14.9 13.4 -9.8 103.8 36.3 1.4
73.4 20.5 65.0 45.5 15.6 6.6 51.1 72.5 -32.3 104.2 32.1 34.6
0.3 55.1 23.4 43.6 -6.8 19.4 -38.8 6.0 -3.7 102.5 27.7 2.8
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8P 9P
10.8 3.3 3.8 4.3 7.7 7.4 10.2 8.2 15.0
16.8 -1.0 5.5 2.4 5.0 3.2 3.5 9.5 6.5
5.7 2.5 0.8 2.5 6.1 5.7 10.1 6.2 17.7
-13.1 -6.2 5.3 -2.5 18.8 -23.4 -13.0 -7.6 -40.4
3.6 3.5 44.3 -4.1 52.6 9.7 -8.8 11.2 7.8
-19.0 -14.9 -11.6 0.2 18.2 -22.7 -8.1 -10.5 -59.9
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
Economic Bulletin
57
8. Composite indexes of business cycle indicators and BSI See graphs 13-1, 13-2 & 13-3
Y-o-Y change (%)
Coincident index (2005=100)
Cycle of coincident index (2005=100)
BSI (actual)
BSI (outlook)
104.1
7.9
104.0
100.3
95.4
102.6
2
104.1
7.1
104.2
100.0
90.5
102.4
3
104.1
5.8
104.7
100.1
111.5
118.9
4
104.2
5.4
104.9
99.9
99.8
112.7
5
104.4
5.1
105.3
99.9
94.1
110.7
6
104.7
5.3
105.6
99.7
94.2
98.6
7
104.8
4.6
105.1
98.8
79.1
94.2
8
105.2
4.3
105.6
98.9
85.9
93.4
9
106.0
4.4
106.5
99.3
99.4
107.7
10
106.9
5.0
108.3
100.6
99.4
103.5
11
107.6
5.0
109.1
100.9
103.7
104.3
12
108.0
4.4
109.3
100.6
100.4
101.4
2007 1
108.5
4.2
109.4
100.3
85.6
96.5
2
109.3
5.0
109.8
100.2
87.5
93.4
3
109.7
5.4
110.2
100.2
109.4
112.3
4
110.5
6.0
110.8
100.3
105.8
107.7
5
110.8
6.1
111.4
100.3
104.1
110.9
6
111.7
6.7
112.2
100.6
100.2
105.6
7
112.5
7.3
113.0
100.9
95.8
99.3
8
113.3
7.7
113.6
101.1
94.4
102.5
9
114.0
7.5
113.7
100.7
101.5
111.8
10
114.8
7.4
114.3
100.8
108.3
116.3
11
115.5
7.3
114.8
100.8
106.0
112.4
12
115.8
7.2
115.8
101.2
98.9
103.4
2008 1
115.1
6.1
116.6
101.5
95.2
103.0
2
114.3
4.6
116.7
101.2
95.6
94.8
3
113.8
3.7
116.9
100.9
101.1
102.1
4
114.0
3.2
116.9
100.5
101.7
98.1
5
114.1
3.0
117.3
100.4
98.1
104.7
6
113.6
1.7
117.3
99.9
79.1
95.3
7
112.8P
0.3P
117.5
99.7
80.8
83.2
8
112.6P
-0.6P
117.7P
99.4P
83.1
80.8
9
112.7P
-1.1P
117.8P
99.1P
76.8
98.3
10
-
-
-
-
62.8
84.9
11
-
-
-
-
-
63.7
Period
Leading index (2005=100)
2006 1
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office & The Federation of Korean Industries
58
November 2008
9. Balance of payments (I) See graphs 5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 10-1 & 10-2 (million US$)
Period
2004 2005 2006 2007P
Current balance
Goods trade balance
Exports
28,173.5 14,980.9 5,385.2 5,954.3
37,568.8 32,683.1 27,905.1 29,409.4
Imports
Services trade balance
Income trade balance
Current transfers
253,844.7 284,418.7 325,464.8 371,489.1
224,462.7 261,238.3 309,382.6 356,845.7
-8,046.1 -13,658.2 -18,960.7 -20,574.9
1,082.8 -1,562.5 533.7 768.5
-2,432.0 -2,481.5 -4,092.9 -3,648.7
2005
I II III IV
5,263.5 2,352.1 2,198.2 5,167.1
8,750.5 8,365.8 7,234.8 8,332.0
66,807.6 69,702.8 71,097.7 76,810.7
60,626.8 63,694.9 66,228.3 70,688.3
-3,114.4 -3,368.7 -4,254.6 -2,920.5
166.4 -1,948.8 -97.3 317.2
-539.0 -696.2 -684.7 -561.6
2006
I II III IV
-1,977.6 235.0 1,016.9 6,110.9
4,682.7 7,109.8 6,230.9 9,881.7
73,884.9 81,473.4 82,712.8 87,393.7
72,542.1 76,719.7 80,215.8 79,905.1
-5,084.8 -4,200.8 -5,340.1 -4,335.0
-519.6 -1,356.9 1,148.3 1,261.9
-1,055.9 -1,317.1 -1,022.2 -697.7
2007P
I II III IV
-1,662.2 34.4 4,430.2 3,151.9
6,037.9 6,970.2 9,676.2 6,725.1
84,703.5 92,984.5 90,529.1 103,272.0
82,261.7 87,961.9 86,058.8 100,563.3
-6,180.1 -4,395.3 -5,884.1 -4,115.4
-689.6 -1,543.1 1,663.8 1,337.4
-830.4 -997.4 -1,025.7 -795.2
2008P
I II III
-5,212.6 -134.4 -8,448.8
-1,219.8 5,722.7 -3,344.5
99,455.5 114,531.2 115,202.3
105,982.6 114,781.2 122,099.7
-5,067.2 -4,272.7 -5,691.6
1,688.1 -645.6 1,356.7
-613.7 -938.8 -769.4
2006
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-273.5 -1,217.8 -486.3 -1,978.8 782.8 1,431.0 -226.2 -734.2 1,977.3 1,776.0 4,270.7 64.2
1,143.9 681.3 2,857.5 1,639.0 2,240.9 3,229.9 1,553.5 1,330.3 3,347.1 2,627.4 5,550.9 1,703.4
23,257.9 23,787.0 26,840.1 25,590.1 27,934.5 27,948.8 25,774.4 27,287.2 29,651.2 28,015.9 30,602.3 28,775.4
23,089.3 23,507.8 25,945.0 24,485.8 26,210.4 26,023.5 25,549.7 27,029.5 27,636.6 25,621.8 26,765.1 27,518.2
-1,797.8 -1,849.4 -1,437.6 -1,537.7 -1,340.5 -1,322.6 -1,716.2 -2,141.4 -1,482.5 -1,139.2 -1,457.0 -1,738.8
613.2 326.9 -1,459.7 -1,700.5 301.9 41.7 237.5 296.4 614.4 500.1 448.2 313.6
-232.8 -376.6 -446.5 -379.6 -419.5 -518.0 -301.0 -219.5 -501.7 -212.3 -271.4 -214.0
2007P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-428.1 402.1 -1,636.2 -2,078.1 839.1 1,273.4 1,552.3 573.7 2,304.2 2,461.1 1,504.6 -813.8
1,292.1 2,387.3 2,358.5 1,519.5 2,239.0 3,211.7 3,044.1 2,906.4 3,725.7 3,638.0 2,643.7 443.4
28,092.6 26,225.1 30,385.8 29,944.4 31,039.9 32,000.1 30,207.4 30,998.1 29,323.5 34,433.8 35,807.9 33,030.3
27,560.1 25,406.2 29,295.5 29,596.9 29,856.9 28,508.1 29,223.2 29,642.1 27,193.6 32,741.2 33,926.1 33,895.9
-1,943.4 -2,551.1 -1,685.6 -1,396.1 -1,483.2 -1,516.0 -1,688.2 -2,445.2 -1,750.7 -1,416.5 -1,458.9 -1,240.0
547.1 850.7 -2,087.4 -2,001.5 461.6 -3.2 533.5 444.3 686.0 502.9 422.8 411.7
-323.9 -284.8 -221.7 -200.0 -378.3 -419.1 -337.1 -331.8 -356.8 -263.3 -103.0 -428.9
2008P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
-2,751.3 -2,350.7 -110.6 -1,581.3 -377.5 1,824.4 -2,534.0 -4,696.3 -1,218.5
-1,095.2 -599.1 474.5 1,632.3 612.5 3,477.9 217.6 -2,803.4 -758.7
32,278.2 31,182.6 35,994.7 37,861.6 39,396.3 37,273.3 40,969.4 36,641.9 39,591.0
36,292.4 32,601.1 37,089.1 38,243.2 38,695.7 37,842.3 43,008.9 40,441.2 39,649.7
-2,138.1 -2,249.6 -679.5 -979.8 -1,167.4 -2,126.3 -2,456.0 -2,000.0 -1,235.6
768.0 700.7 219.4 -1,932.0 459.2 827.2 239.6 324.8 792.3
-286.0 -202.7 -125.0 -302.6 -281.8 -354.4 -535.2 -217.5 -16.5
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea & Korea Customs Service
Economic Bulletin
59
10. Balance of payments (II) See graph 10-3 (million US$)
Period
Capital & financial account
Direct investment
2004 2005 2006 2007P
7,598.8 4,756.5 17,972.0 6,232.3
Changes in reserve assets
Errors and omissions
Portfolio investment
Other investment
Capital transfers & acquisition of non-financial assets
4,588.3 2,010.4 -4,540.4 -13,696.7
8,619.3 -1,728.2 -22,745.6 -19,093.3
-3,856.0 6,814.7 48,384.1 41,411.9
-1,752.8 -2,340.4 -3,126.1 -2,389.6
-38,710.5 -19,805.8 -22,112.9 -15,128.2
2,938.2 68.4 -1,244.3 2,941.6
2005
I II III IV
4,141.5 2,257.6 -504.3 -1,138.3
-194.0 1,249.7 48.8 905.9
-1,278.2 -2,575.3 -147.5 2,272.8
6,125.5 4,247.5 256.8 -3,815.1
-511.8 -664.3 -662.4 -501.9
-9,513.7 -2,817.2 -2,300.1 -5,174.8
108.7 -1,792.5 606.2 1,146.0
2006
I II III IV
6,824.8 3,319.1 3,754.1 4,074.0
-1,062.3 -30.9 -3,856.2 409.0
1,847.1 -14,079.6 -7,703.3 -2,809.8
6,787.0 18,255.2 15,978.3 7,363.6
-747.0 -825.6 -664.7 -888.8
-5,679.3 -4,315.9 -3,688.8 -8,428.9
832.1 761.8 -1,082.2 -1,756.0
2007P I II III IV
5,313.6 6,442.1 -3,326.5 -2,196.9
-959.8 -2,867.7 -2,445.6 -7,423.6
-10,492.9 -27.2 -9,169.6 596.4
17,580.4 10,023.0 8,858.8 4,949.7
-814.1 -686.0 -570.1 -319.4
-3,998.3 -6,250.1 -2,495.6 -2,384.2
346.9 -226.4 1,391.9 1,429.2
2008P I ll III
395.9 -4,673.7 -5,225.9
-4,790.6 -2,913.5 -2,283.5
-11,065.6 5,191.4 -16,238.7
16,489.7 -6,718.6 13,515.7
-237.6 -233.0 -219.4
3,850.0 5,717.7 12,883.1
966.7 -909.6 791.6
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
4,082.2 1,594.0 1,148.6 4,639.6 391.0 -1,711.5 1,767.1 1,410.5 576.5 -940.2 -524.0 5,538.2
-504.9 137.3 -694.7 328.5 -105.2 -254.2 -174.9 -671.6 -3,009.7 -131.6 -38.9 579.5
692.7 2,404.0 -1,249.6 -3,099.7 -7,937.6 -3,042.3 -3,899.6 -4,470.4 666.7 -678.3 -827.2 -1,304.3
4,124.2 -695.4 3,358.2 7,714.2 8,680.4 1,860.6 6,123.2 6,719.8 3,135.3 137.1 671.9 6,554.6
-229.8 -251.9 -265.3 -303.4 -246.6 -275.6 -281.6 -167.3 -215.8 -267.4 -329.8 -291.6
-5,432.6 140.7 -387.4 -3,354.8 -495.6 -465.5 -686.0 -959.7 -2,043.1 -933.1 -2,677.2 -4,818.6
1,623.9 -516.9 -274.9 694.0 -678.2 746.0 -854.9 283.4 -510.7 97.3 -1,069.5 -783.8
2007P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2,078.9 -404.0 3,638.7 4,203.3 3,597.1 -1,358.3 537.1 -304.8 -3,558.8 -1,912.9 -1,498.6 1,214.6
-208.9 -687.6 -63.3 -388.2 -311.3 -2,168.2 -3.0 -1,372.5 -1,070.1 -4,439.9 -1,726.1 -1,257.6
-1,411.2 -1,940.7 -7,141.0 3,808.0 529.6 -4,364.8 -6,925.0 -5,973.7 3,729.1 154.3 -2,901.5 3,343.6
4,054.0 2,427.6 11,098.8 1,029.3 3,613.2 5,380.5 7,692.6 7,248.3 -6,082.1 2,538.1 3,202.6 -791.0
-355.0 -203.3 -255.8 -245.8 -234.4 -205.8 -227.5 -206.9 -135.7 -165.4 -73.6 -80.4
-2,350.7 -1,134.7 -512.9 -1,878.4 -4,492.9 121.2 -2,421.6 -937.5 863.5 -847.5 -493.8 -1,042.9
699.9 1,136.6 -1,489.6 -246.8 56.7 -36.3 332.2 668.6 391.1 299.3 487.8 642.1
2008P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
409.2 -401.3 388.0 -386.9 -1,250.4 -3,991.9 -5,774.6 5,325.4 -4,776.7
-2,488.7 303.5 -2,605.4 -1,911.9 -262.6 -739.0 -1,214.3 -742.7 -326.5
-4,011.1 -5,426.4 -1,628.1 3,571.7 7,343.4 -5,723.7 -9,563.1 -564.5 -6110.2
7,013.3 4,819.9 4,656.5 1,958.9 -8,276.5 2,561.3 5,180.4 6,743.0 1,592.3
-104.3 -98.3 -35.0 -87.8 -54.7 -90.5 -177.6 -109.5 67.7
1,436.1 1,703.1 710.8 2,411.3 2,264.6 1,041.8 9,171.4 -1,215.2 4,926.9
906.0 1,048.9 -988.2 -453.1 -1,155.0 698.5 -862.8 586.1 1,068.3
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
60
November 2008
11. Prices See graphs 11-1, 11-2 & 11-3 (2005 = 100) Producer prices (2000=100)
Consumer prices
Export & import prices
Period All Items
Commodity
Service
Core
All items
Commodity
Export
Import
2006 2007
102.2 104.8
101.5 103.5
102.7 105.7
101.8 104.2
100.9 102.3
100.5 101.5
91.8 89.8
100.9 105.5
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
102.8 103.5 104.1 104.5 104.6 104.6 105.0 105.1 105.7 105.9 105.9 106.3
101.4 102.3 102.3 102.8 102.8 102.7 103.3 103.5 104.7 105.1 104.9 105.6
103.8 104.2 105.2 105.5 105.7 105.8 106.0 106.1 106.3 106.4 106.6 106.7
102.7 103.1 103.8 104.1 104.1 104.2 104.4 104.5 104.6 104.7 104.8 105.0
100.5 100.6 101.0 101.7 102.3 102.5 102.7 102.6 103.1 103.3 103.7 104.1
99.6 99.6 100.2 100.9 101.6 101.7 101.7 101.7 102.3 102.4 103.1 103.7
88.6 88.1 88.9 89.2 89.3 89.5 89.6 90.6 90.8 89.8 91.5 92.0
97.7 99.5 102.7 104.0 104.5 104.2 104.1 105.1 107.6 108.6 113.0 114.9
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
106.8 107.2 108.2 108.8 109.7 110.4 111.2 111.0 111.1 111.0
106.3 106.6 107.1 108.2 110.0 111.5 112.9 112.2 112.1 111.7
107.1 107.5 108.9 109.2 109.5 109.7 110.1 110.3 110.4 110.6
105.6 106.0 107.2 107.7 108.2 108.7 109.2 109.4 109.9 110.1
104.7 105.7 107.1 109.4 111.5 113.3 115.5 115.2 114.8 114.4
104.4 105.7 107.5 110.3 113.1 115.5 118.1 117.6 117.0 116.7
93.7 94.8 100.8 103.3 110.7 112.0 112.1 110.5 115.6 124.5
118.4 121.6 131.5 136.5 151.1 155.2 156.8 149.9 153.4 159.7
Y-o-Y change (%) 2006 2007
2.2 2.5
1.5 2.0
2.7 2.9
1.8 2.4
0.9 1.4
0.5 1.0
-8.2 -2.1
0.9 4.5
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1.7 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.3 3.0 3.5 3.6
0.3 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.8 0.5 1.6 3.2 4.2 4.3
2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.0
2.1 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4
0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.6 0.9 1.0 2.2 3.1 3.6
-0.5 -0.6 0.2 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.4 1.8 3.3 4.0
-5.7 -4.2 -3.3 -1.8 -1.4 -2.8 -2.6 -3.4 -2.6 -2.5 1.8 3.4
-1.4 1.6 4.4 4.2 2.8 1.6 0.1 -0.7 5.2 7.5 13.7 15.6
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
3.9 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.9 5.5 5.9 5.6 5.1 4.8
4.8 4.2 4.7 5.3 7.0 8.6 9.3 8.4 7.1 6.3
3.2 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9
2.8 2.8 3.3 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.2
4.2 5.1 6.1 7.6 9.0 10.5 12.5 12.3 11.3 10.7
4.8 6.1 7.3 9.3 11.3 13.6 16.1 15.6 14.4 14.0
5.8 7.6 13.4 15.7 24.0 25.2 25.1 21.9 27.4 38.6
21.2 22.2 28.0 31.3 44.6 49.0 50.6 42.6 42.6 47.1
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
61
12. Employment See graphs 8-1, 8-2 & 8-3
Wage workers (thous.)
Economically active persons (thous.) Period
Employed persons (thous.)
Unemployment (%) Regular
Temporary
Daily
All industry Manufacturing S.O.C&service 2006 2007
23,978 24,216
23,151 23,433
4,167 4,119
17,181 17,569
3.5 3.2
15,551 15,970
8,204 8,620
5,143 5,172
2,204 2,178
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
23,580 23,536 23,960 24,337 24,537 24,593 24,545 24,214 24,341 24,482 24,471 23,993
22,729 22,674 23,121 23,520 23,758 23,816 23,750 23,458 23,622 23,750 23,739 23,257
4,156 4,139 4,119 4,124 4,114 4,140 4,126 4,052 4,101 4,142 4,092 4,127
17,221 17,114 17,371 17,573 17,677 17,715 17,740 17,524 17,639 17,689 17,856 17,712
3.6 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1
15,656 15,539 15,731 15,964 16,095 16,124 16,127 15,882 16,056 16,147 16,218 16,104
8,382 8,399 8,432 8,451 8,532 8,617 8,674 8,763 8,823 8,825 8,793 8,750
5,176 5,125 5,188 5,236 5,259 5,217 5,254 5,044 5,100 5,119 5,174 5,176
2,099 2,015 2,112 2,277 2,304 2,290 2,199 2,075 2,132 2,203 2,251 2,178
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
23,738 23,703 24,114 24,495 24,692 24,727 24,673 24,380 24,456 24,582
22,964 22,884 23,305 23,711 23,939 23,963 23,903 23,617 23,734 23,847
4,125 4,136 4,100 4,099 4,097 4,107 4,097 4,020 4,047 4,079
17,549 17,409 17,630 17,829 17,931 17,947 17,958 17,744 17,825 17,862
3.3 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0
16,032 15,836 15,993 16,258 16,405 16,385 16,363 16,104 16,221 16,314
8,815 8,804 8,898 8,894 9,010 9,039 9,054 9,107 9,142 9,138
5,115 5,055 5,023 5,127 5,165 5,132 5,163 4,970 5,015 5,034
2,102 1,977 2,073 2,238 2,231 2,214 2,146 2,027 2,064 2,142
Y-o-Y change (%) 2006 2007
1.0 1.0
1.3 1.2
-1.6 -1.1
2.3 2.3
-5.4 -8.6
2.4 2.7
3.6 5.1
1.7 0.6
-0.4 -1.2
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1.0 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.9
1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2
-1.1 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.3 -1.0 -1.3 -1.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 0.6
1.9 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1
-2.7 -9.8 -10.3 -2.9 0.0 -5.9 -5.9 -8.8 -6.2 -9.1 -6.2 -6.1
3.1 2.9 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.6 3.5 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4
4.4 4.6 4.1 3.6 4.3 6.0 6.7 6.3 5.7 5.2 5.1 4.9
3.0 2.8 1.7 1.4 1.3 -0.5 -1.2 0.5 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -1.1
-1.6 -3.3 -2.5 -0.9 -2.1 -2.1 -3.3 -0.7 -0.5 0.8 0.7 1.6
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4
1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4
-0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.4 -0.8 -0.7 -0.8 -1.3 -1.5
1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.0
-8.3 -5.4 -2.9 -5.9 -6.2 -3.1 -3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2.4 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.0 1.0
5.2 4.8 5.5 5.2 5.6 4.9 4.4 3.9 3.6 3.5
-1.2 -1.4 -3.2 -2.1 -1.8 -1.6 -1.7 -1.5 -1.7 -1.7
0.2 -1.9 -1.8 -1.7 -3.2 -3.3 -2.4 -2.3 -3.2 -2.8
Source: Korea National Statistical Office
62
November 2008
13. Financial indicators See graphs 9-1 & 9-4 (period average) Yields (%)
Stock
Period Call rate (1 day)
CD (91 days)
Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)
Treasury bonds (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
KOSPI (end-period)
2005 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.7
3.5 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0
4.1 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.8 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.5
3.7 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.1
3.9 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.4 4.7 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.3
932.70 1,011.40 965.70 911.30 970.20 1,008.20 1,111.30 1,083.30 1,221.00 1,158.10 1,297.40 1,379.40
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.8
5.5 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.2
5.0 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.8
5.3 5.0 5.1 5.2 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.9
1,399.80 1,371.60 1,359.60 1,419.70 1,371.70 1,295.70 1,297.80 1,352.70 1,371.40 1,364.60 1,432.20 1,434.50
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.7
5.3 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.7
5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.9
5.0 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.9
1,360.20 1,417.30 1,452.60 1,542.24 1,700.91 1,743.60 1,933.27 1,873.24 1,946.48 2,064.95 1,906.00 1,897.10
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.2 4.9
5.8 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.8 5.8 6.0
6.6 6.3 6.1 5.9 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.5 8.0
5.4 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.1
5.5 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.2
1,624.68 1,711.62 1,703.99 1,825.47 1,852.02 1,674.92 1,594.67 1,474.24 1,448.06 1,113.10
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
63
14. Monetary indicators See graph 9-5 (period average)
Period
(billion won)
Reserve money
M1
M2
Lf
2006 2007
41,664.0 48,543.7
330,134.1 312,832.3
1,076,682.4 1,197,094.8
1,454,858.8 1,603,516.0
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
47,851.4 49,493.5 48,936.8 47,485.3 48,092.5 47,914.3 47,500.5 47,823.9 48,870.6 49,370.6 48,831.0 50,353.8
353,494.2 350,734.7 335,446.8 305,602.5 301,184.5 302,511.7 302,375.6 298,066.1 299,048.0 297,999.3 299,714.7 307,809.3
1,143,814.9 1,154,108.8 1,162,429.3 1,165,291.0 1,171,148.4 1,190,080.2 1,200,892.7 1,208,052.8 1,219,265.1 1,229,742.1 1,250,790.1 1,269,522.5
1,536,010.8 1,547,512.8 1,557,701.9 1,564,339.3 1,575,635.4 1,596,407.1 1,606,424.5 1,618,788.3 1,631,969.6 1,649,987.5 1,668,328.3 1,686,063.4
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
50,260.5 52,563.7 49,571.5 50,683.6 50,502.5 51,274.4 50,600.6 51,981.0 53,303.9
305,868.0 304,580.7 299,792.8 298,474.4 304,239.8 305,514.3 306,584.4 304,538.7 307,067.8
1,286,407.8 1,309,161.7 1,324,032.7 1,339,434.9 1,356,612.9 1,369,728.1 1,378,914.3 1,386,101.1 1,395,719.2
1,711,196.8 1,726,407.2 1,743,481.7 1,762,945.3 1,782,721.1 1,798,774.9 1,801,540.6 1,810,535.1 1,830,860.2
Y-o-Y change (%) 2006 2007
7.4 16.5
-0.8 -5.2
8.3 11.2
7.9 10.2
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
15.8 18.8 19.4 15.3 18.1 17.7 13.2 18.7 17.8 14.3 17.6 12.2
7.9 7.4 3.0 -5.7 -7.0 -7.5 -8.4 -8.6 -8.7 -10.7 -11.2 -12.5
11.3 11.5 11.5 11.1 10.9 10.9 10.9 11.4 11.0 10.8 11.3 11.5
9.8 9.9 10.2 10.1 10.1 10.4 10.0 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.6
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
5.0 6.2 1.3 6.7 5.0 7.0 6.5 8.7 9.1
-13.5 -13.2 -10.6 -2.3 1.0 1.0 1.4 2.2 2.7
12.5 13.4 13.9 14.9 15.8 15.1 14.8 14.7 14.5
11.4 11.6 11.9 12.7 13.1 12.7 12.1 11.8 12.2
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
64
November 2008
15. Exchange rates See graphs 9-2 & 9-3
₩ /US$
₩ /100￥
₩ /Euro
Period End-period
Average
End-period
Average
End-period
Average
2006 2007
929.6 938.2
955.5 929.2
781.8 833.3
821.5 789.8
1,222.2 1,381.3
1,199.3 1,272.7
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
940.9 938.3 940.3 929.4 929.9 926.8 923.2 939.9 920.7 907.4 929.6 938.2
936.4 937.0 943.3 931.5 927.9 928.3 918.9 933.8 932.4 915.9 917.0 930.2
773.1 793.9 797.0 778.3 764.8 752.4 774.6 809.9 796.7 791.1 846.5 833.3
777.9 776.8 804.8 783.7 768.5 757.1 755.6 799.8 810.6 790.7 826.2 828.4
1,220.1 1,241.9 1,253.9 1,266.9 1,249.0 1,246.0 1,266.9 1,282.3 1,302.9 1,309.9 1,371.8 1,381.3
1,217.0 1,225.1 1,249.4 1,257.7 1,254.1 1,244.9 1,260.0 1,272.4 1,291.2 1,303.3 1,345.6 1,355.2
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
943.9 937.3 991.7 999.7 1,031.4 1,043.4 1,008.5 1,081.8 1187.7 1,291.4
942.4 944.7 979.9 986.7 1,036.7 1,029.3 1,019.1 1,041.5 1,130.4 1,326.9
889.1 889.7 1,000.2 961.8 977.0 981.8 932.9 987.9 1,144.2 1,306.0
872.9 880.6 972.3 962.4 994.2 963.0 954.2 953.0 1,060.6 1,327.1
1402.3 1423.5 1,565.0 1,556.2 1,599.6 1,647.1 1,571.0 1,590.3 1,707.2 1,664.4
1,386.2 1,395.4 1,519.5 1,555.1 1,614.6 1,601.7 1,606.4 1,561.6 1,627.6 1,765.3
Y-o-Y change (%) 2006 2007
-8.2 0.9
-6.7 -2.8
-9.1 6.6
-11.7 -3.9
1.9 -13.0
-5.9 6.1
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-3.1 -3.2 -3.7 -1.7 -1.9 -3.5 -3.1 -2.1 -2.6 -3.9 -0.0 0.9
-5.1 -3.4 -3.3 -2.4 -1.4 -2.8 -3.3 -2.8 -2.2 -4.0 -2.1 0.5
-6.3 -4.8 -4.2 -6.0 -9.2 -9.8 -6.7 -1.3 -0.7 -1.5 5.9 6.6
-8.9 -5.5 -3.2 -3.8 -8.8 -9.1 -8.0 -3.6 -0.5 -1.5 3.5 4.8
3.9 8.2 5.6 6.9 3.4 2.5 4.2 4.1 8.5 9.1 12.2 13.0
1.9 5.6 6.5 7.5 4.4 3.0 4.5 3.4 6.3 8.4 11.6 10.8
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0.3 -0.1 5.5 7.6 10.9 12.6 9.2 15.1 29.0 42.3
0.6 0.8 3.9 5.9 11.7 10.9 10.9 11.5 21.2 44.9
15.0 12.1 25.5 23.6 27.8 30.5 20.4 22.0 43.6 65.1
12.2 13.4 20.8 22.8 29.4 27.2 26.3 19.2 30.8 67.8
14.9 14.6 24.8 22.8 28.1 32.2 24.0 24.0 31.0 27.1
13.9 13.9 21.6 23.6 28.7 28.7 27.5 22.7 26.1 35.5
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
65
Editor-in-Chief Kim, Kyu-Ok (MOSF) Editorial Board Kim, Dong-Yule (KDI) Lee, In-Sook (KDI) Coordinators Oh, Hae-Young (MOSF) Kang, Ji-Eun (KDI) Editors Kim, Sun-Young (MOSF) Kim, Dae-Hyun (MOSF) Cho, Hyun-Joo (KDI)
Useful Internet Websites Economy-related Websites Recommended
Ministry of Strategy and Finance http://english.mosf.go.kr Ministry of Knowledge Economy http://www.mke.go.kr/language/eng Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr Fair Trade Commission http://www.ftc.go.kr/eng Ministry of Labor http://english.molab.go.kr/english The Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr Korea National Statistical Office http://www.nso.go.kr/eng2006