Vol. 31 | No. 1
Republic of Korea
Economic Bulletin The Green Book : Current Economic Trends Overview
3
1. Global economy
4
2. Private consumption
8
3. Facility investment
12
4. Construction investment
14
5. Exports and imports
16
6. Mining and manufacturing production
18
7. Service sector activity
20
8. Employment
22
9. Financial markets
24
9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4
Stock market Exchange rate Bond market Money supply & money market
10. Balance of payments
28
11. Prices and international commodity prices
30
11.1 Prices 11.2 International oil and commodity prices 12. Real estate market
34
12.1 Housing market 12.2 Land market 13. Composite indexes of business cycle indicators
38
Policy Issues 2009 Economic Policy Direction
40
The Green New Deal: A new growth engine for the Korean economy
42
Economic News Briefing
46
Statistical Appendices
51
The Green Book Current Economic Trends
Overview Despite mitigated inflationary pressures, Korea has seen the spectre of recession loom larger, as real economic indicators such as production, domestic demand, and exports further deteriorated. Mining and manufacturing production posted a year-on-year drop of 14.1 percent in November due to worsening domestic demand, a 1.5 day loss in the number of working days, and a 19 percent drop in November exports. November consumer goods sales dipped, posting a yearon-year decrease of 5.9 percent and a month-on-month loss of 2.2 percent as the sales of durable goods such as cars, computers, and telecommunications equipment slumped. Facility investment (estimated) dropped 18.0 percent year-on-year in November after falling 7.7 percent in the previous month, due to decreased investments in machinery including semiconductor equipment and transportation equipment. The total number of workers hired rose by a meager 78,000 year-on-year in November, exacerbating the already-tough Korean job market conditions. In November, the leading composite index fell for the twelfth consecutive month on a year-on-year basis, while the cyclical indicator of coincident composite index went down for the tenth straight month. The pace of declines also accelerated. Exports continued their double-digit decline in December, posting a 17.4 percent fall due to drops in the unit prices of major exports such as semiconductors and oil products and lackluster overseas demand for Korean goods. In November, Korea posted a current account surplus of US$2.06 billion as improvements in the service and income accounts and a reduction in imports led by falling oil prices eclipsed a drop in exports. In December, the current account is expected to stay in positive territory. Thanks to falling petroleum product prices, consumer prices slowed down for the fifth consecutive month in December, posting a year-on-year rise of 4.1 percent. The Korean financial market showed signs of plateauing out as stepped-up policy efforts for stabilizing the financial market and long positions newly held by foreign investors shored up the won. In sum, the overall Korean economy has decelerated faster than expected as the global economic slowdown made a dent in production and exports. Against this backdrop, continued efforts to address volatility in the financial and forex markets should be made. In addition, early execution of budget spending aimed at job creation and revitalization of the real economy and policy measures to help SMEs and the poor stay afloat should be sought after. Economic Bulletin
3
1. Global economy The global economy has seen the global financial turmoil spilling over into the real economy as advanced nations led by the US and Japan fell deeper into recession. The economies of developing nations led by China have slowed down, dragged down by a dip in exports, capital flight, and depreciating currencies since the third quarter of 2008.
US
The US economy remained locked in a downward spiral as its credit market conditions showed no signs of improving. The economy contracted 0.5 percent in the third quarter of 2008 as consumption and corporate investments were revised down 0.1 percentage point and 0.2 percentage points, respectively, offsetting an upward revision of 1.6 percentage points to construction investments. The number of non-farm payroll employees tumbled 533,000, the biggest drop since 1974, contributing to a surge in unemployment. Unemployment rate (y-o-y, %) 5.0 (Apr 2008)
5.5 (May)
5.5 (Jun)
5.7 (Jul)
6.1 (Aug)
6.1 (Sep)
6.5 (Oct)
6.7 (Nov)
The US housing market is likely to take a turn for the worse, due to drops in home sales and prices and an increment in mortgage defaults. Case-Shiller home price index (m-o-m, %) -0.5 (Jun 2008)
-0.9 (Jul)
-1.0 (Aug)
-1.8 (Sep)
-1.8 (Oct)
A US$17.4 billion rescue package was unveiled on December 19, 2008 to provide liquidity to ailing US automakers such as GM and Chrysler which will be given US$9.4 billion and US$4 billion in loans, respectively. The Fed’s policy panel, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), announced on December 16, 2008 that it had cut its target for the federal funds rate to between zero and 0.25 percent, the lowest on record, promising to wade further into the unconventional world of quantitative easing. (Percentage change from previous period) 2007
2006 Annual Real GDP
2008
Annual
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct
Nov
2.8
2.0
-0.2
0.9
2.8
-0.5
-
-
-
- Personal consumption expenditure
3.0
2.8
1.0
0.9
1.2
-3.8
-
-
-
- Corporate fixed investment
7.5
4.9
3.4
2.4
2.5
-1.7
-
-
-
- Construction investment for housing
-7.1
-17.9
-27.0
-25.1
-13.3
-16.0
-
-
-
Industrial production
2.2
1.7
0.3
0.4
-3.4
-8.9
-4.1
1.5
-0.6
Retail sales
5.8
4.2
1.3
-0.3
0.9
-1.3
-1.6
-2.9
-1.8
New non-farm payroll employment (q-o-q, thousand)
2,099
1,096
241
-247
-214
-597
-403
-320
-533
New home sales
-18.1
-26.2
-10.9
-13.8
-7.5
-10.3
-1.3
-5.2
-2.9
3.2
2.9
4.0
4.1
4.4
5.3
4.9
3.7
1.1
1
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) 1. Annualized rate (%)
4
January 2009
1-1
US GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate) Source: US Department of Commerce
1-2
US non-farm payroll employment (m-o-m change) Source: US Department of Labor
1-3
US federal funds rate and consumer prices Source: US Federal Reserve Board & Department of Labor
Economic Bulletin
5
China
China’s export growth has turned negative for the first time since February 2002, sending industrial production slumping and growth in investments and consumption decelerating. Economy-boosting efforts such as an additional rate cut on December 22 and expanded VAT rebates on export goods have been made to arrest the declining growth. Key lending rate (%) 7.20 (Sep 15, 2008)
6.93 (Oct 3)
6.66 (Oct 29)
2006
5.58 (Nov 26) 5.31 (Dec 22) (Percentage change from same period in previous period)
2007
Annual Annual
2008 Sep
Oct
Real GDP
11.6
11.9
11.5
11.2
10.6
10.1
9.0
-
-
-
Fixed asset investment (accumulated)
24.5
25.8
26.4
25.8
25.9
26.8
27.6
27.6
27.2
26.8
Retail sales
13.7
16.8
16.8
19.0
20.6
22.2
23.2
23.2
22.0
20.8
Industrial production
16.6
18.5
18.1
17.5
16.4
15.9
13.0
11.4
8.2
5.4
Exports Consumer prices
27.2 1.5
25.7 4.8
26.2 6.1
22.2 6.6
21.4 8.0
22.4 7.8
23.0 5.3
21.5 4.6
19.2 4.0
-2.2 2.4
Producer prices
3.0
3.1
2.6
4.4
6.9
8.4
9.7
9.1
6.6
2.0
Japan
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Nov
The Japanese economy saw both exports and production falling at a faster pace in November compared to the previous month. 23 trillion yen in the third round of the economic stimulus package has been unveiled to create jobs and stabilize the lives of ordinary people. In addition, the benchmark interest rate was lowered to 0.1 percent from 0.3 percent on December 19, 2008. Economic stimulus package 11.7 trillion yen in the first round (Aug 2008), 26.9 trillion yen in the second round (Oct) (Percentage change from previous period) 2006 2007 2008 Annual Annual
Real GDP
2.0
Industrial and mining production
4.5
Retail sales (y-o-y, %)
0.1
Exports (y-o-y, %)
14.6
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %)
0.3
Eurozone
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct
Nov
0.5
0.5
0.6
-1.0
-0.5
-
-
-
2.8
1.7
0.9
-0.7
-0.8
-1.3
1.1
-3.1
-8.1
-0.1
-0.5
0.8
1.8
0.2
0.8
-0.3
-0.7
-0.9
11.5
10.7
10.0
6.0
1.8
3.2
1.5
-7.8
-26.7
0.0
-0.2
0.5
0.9
1.4
2.2
2.1
1.7
1.0
2.4
Amid sluggish exports and production, the eurozone economy has seen its retail sales growth turn negative. The European Central Bank (ECB), on January 6, forecasted inflation for December 2008 at 1.6 percent, well below its target of two percent, fueling expectations of further interest rate cuts. Benchmark interest rate (%) 3.75
3.25 (Nov 7, 2008)
2.5 (Dec 4) (Percentage change from previous period)
2006
2007
Annual Annual
2008
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct
Nov
0.3
0.7
-0.2
-0.2
-
-
-
Real GDP
2.9
2.6
0.6
Industrial production
4.0
3.4
1.5
0.6
-0.1
-0.9
-1.2
-1.7
-1.5
-
Retail sales
1.6
0.9
0.2
-0.6
-0.3
-0.8
0.1
0.2
-1.1
-
Exports (y-o-y, %)
11.7
8.8
10.7
5.4
7.3
8.5
5.0
8.7
0.6
-
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %)
2.2
2.1
1.9
2.9
3.4
3.6
3.8
3.6
3.2
2.1
6
January 2009
1-4
China’s GDP and fixed asset investment Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
1-5
Japan’s GDP growth Source: Cabinet Office & Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan
1-6
Eurozone GDP growth and industrial production Source: Eurostat
Economic Bulletin
7
2. Private consumption Private consumption (preliminary GDP) continued to slow down, gaining a mere 1.1 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2008. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, however, it reversed its course of decline and edged up. Private consumption (y-o-y, %) 4.4 (Q2 2007)
4.8 (Q3)
4.6 (Q4)
(SA*, q-o-q, %): 0.9 (Q2 2007)
3.4 (Q1 2008)
1.3 (Q3)
0.8 (Q4)
2.3 (Q2)
1.1 (Q3)
0.4 (Q1 2008)
-0.2 (Q2)
0.1 (Q3)
* SA: seasonally adjusted
November consumer goods sales fell year-on-year as the sales of durable, semi-durable, and non-durable goods went south altogether. Sales of durable goods reversed course and slumped as the sales of cars plummeted. Sales of semi-durable and non-durable goods stayed on a downward track on a year-on-year basis, but they turned positive on a month-to-month basis, decelerating the pace of on-year decline in November. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
2007
Annual Annual
2008
Q3
Q4
Nov
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct1
Nov1
Consumer goods sales
4.1
5.3
7.1
4.5
4.4
3.9
2.5
1.1
-1.8
-3.7
-5.9
(Seasonally adjusted)
-
-
1.8
0.3
-0.3
2.0
-1.1
0.0
-3.6
-1.5
-2.2
11.2
11.0
10.1
6.9
5.7
8.2
7.6
-0.2
-3.9
0.7
-16.3
- Durable goods
2
3
6.9
6.8
4.1
3.9
5.2
9.5
7.1
-5.0
-8.2
-3.1
-39.4
- Semi-durable goods4
Automobiles
3.0
2.9
3.2
2.9
2.8
5.4
-1.6
1.6
-6.2
-4.9
-3.8
- Non-durable goods
1.7
3.7
7.1
4.0
4.6
1.5
1.6
1.5
0.8
-5.1
-1.6
5
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period 3. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 4. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 5. Non-durable good: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobaccos, etc.
Sales at large discounters turned positive and those at department stores declined at a slower pace. However, sales at specialized retailers dipped further. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) Q3
Q4
Nov
2008 period in previous year) (Percentage (Percentage change change from from same same period in previous year) Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct1 Nov1
2006
2007
Annual Annual - Department stores - Large discounters - Specialized retailers
2
3.3
0.7
3.2
2.8
10.0
4.3
3.7
0.1
-5.1
-1.9
-0.2
8.1
8.7
12.2
4.4
6.6
7.3
3.2
-0.9
-7.4
-1.5
2.1
2.3
5.6
7.0
4.4
3.0
1.6
0.1
-1.4
-3.9
-7.8
-11.0
1. Preliminary 2. Specialized retailers are defined as stores carrying a few (1 to 3) specialized items.
8
January 2009
2-1
Private consumption Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
2-2
Consumer goods sales Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
2-3
Consumer goods sales by type Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
9
Given the advance consumption index and deterioration in consumer sentiment, consumer goods sales are unlikely to snap their current downtrend in December. Domestic credit card spending continued to post single-digit growth and sales at department stores and discounters shifted into reverse. Domestic sales of Korean cars took a tumble in spite of the announcement on December 19 of a 30 percent cut in the consumption tax on vehicles. Retail gasoline sales in terms of volume jumped as gasoline prices plunged 18.6 percent year-on-year and the one-off oil tax cuts expired at the end of December 2008. Value of credit card use (y-o-y, %) 22.9 (Jul 2008)
19.0 (Aug)
21.0 (Sep)
15.2 (Oct)
9.8 (Nov)
9.1 (Dec)
Department store sales (y-o-y, %) 5.9 (Jul 2008)
14.0 (Aug)
-0.3 (Sep)
0.0 (Oct)
7.5 (Nov)
-3.2 (Dec)
-0.7 (Oct)
2.3 (Nov)
-2.1 (Dec)
Discount store sales (y-o-y, %) 2.1 (Jul 2008)
1.1 (Aug)
-9.2 (Sep)
Domestic sales of Korean automobiles (y-o-y, %) 5.1 (Jul 2008)
-18.7 (Aug)
-14.5 (Sep)
-0.1 (Oct)
-27.7 (Nov)
-23.8 (Dec)
Sales of gasoline (y-o-y, %) -5.1 (Jul 2008)
-3.2 (Aug)
-0.7 (Sep)
-9.0 (Oct)
5.2 (Nov)
26.0 (Dec)
Source: Ministry of Knowledge and Economy The Credit Finance Association Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association Korea National Oil Corporation Ministry of Strategy and Finance (for December data)
Consumer spending is likely to remain locked in a downtrend in the months to come, as deteriorating employment conditions, a “negative wealth effect� from plunging real estate prices, and declining real income growth have continued to undermine consumer sentiment. Employment growth (y-o-y, thousand) 209 (Q1 2008)
173 (Q2)
141 (Q3)
97 (Oct)
78 (Nov)
Nationwide apartment prices (m-o-m, %) 0.1 (Aug 2008)
0.2 (Sep)
-0.1(Oct)
-0.5 (Nov)
-0.9 (Dec)
Consumer sentiment index 102 (Q1 2008)
85 (Q2)
92 (Q3)
88 (Oct)
84 (Nov)
Real income growth (y-o-y, %) 0.5 (Q4 2007)
1.8 (Q1 2008)
Source: The Bank of Korea
10
January 2009
2.6 (Q2)
-2.4 (Q3)
81 (Dec)
2-4
Department store and discount store sales (current value) Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy (monthly retail sales)
2-5
Domestic automobile sales Source: Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association (monthly automobile industry trend)
2-6
Consumer sentiment index Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
11
3. Facility investment Facility investment (preliminary GDP) in the third quarter of 2008 saw a year-on-year increase of 4.7 percent and a 2.1 percent gain from the previous quarter. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
20071
20081
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
7.8
7.6
10.9
11.0
2.3
6.5
1.4
0.7
4.7
-
-
4.5
1.6
-1.8
2.1
-0.4
0.9
2.1
- Machinery
8.2
7.6
13.5
9.5
1.0
7.0
-0.9
-0.1
6.6
- Transportation equipment
6.0
7.7
0.3
18.9
8.9
4.0
12.3
4.4
-4.7
Facility investment
2
(Seasonally adjusted)3
1. Preliminary
2. National accounts
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
3. Percentage change from previous period
Facility investment (estimated) declined at an even faster pace year-on-year in November, as investments in both machinery such as semiconductor equipment and transportation equipment fell. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
2007
Annual Annual Facility investment (estimated) (Seasonally adjusted)
8.9
8.6
2008
Q3
Q4
Nov
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct1
Nov1
0.7
9.2
10.4
-0.9
0.1
6.1
7.1
-7.7
-18.0
-
-
-1.6
5.9
8.6
-5.3
1.4
3.2
-2.9
-11.0
-1.3
- Machinery
10.2
8.5
-0.5
6.4
9.6
-1.8
-1.6
6.2
6.7
-10.4
-19.4
- Transportation equipment
3.9
9.0
6.0
21.0
10.8
2.9
7.6
6.2
14.2
7.9
-9.9
16.2
21.1
19.1
39.3
46.7
25.2
8.8
-7.6
-34.3
-36.5
-43.9
- Public
0.3
-11.2
-26.9
12.9
174.0
8.8
83.4
-26.8
-52.7
348.0
-4.7
- Private
18.0
24.2
24.0
43.4
42.0
25.9
5.9
-6.4
-33.2
-45.9
-46.7
Machinery imports
18.0
22.1
4.9
30.3
29.3
12.0
8.1
19.9
32.2
7.8
-20.6
Facility investment adjustment pressure3
4.6
1.8
0.4
4.9
1.4
4.8
2.8
0.6
1.6
-6.0
-17.7
2
Domestic machinery orders
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period 3. Production growth in the manufacturing sector - production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p)
Leading indicators such as machinery orders and imports, the business survey index (BSI), and facility investment adjustment pressure indicate that facility investment in December is unlikely to improve. Both the Bank of Korea’s BSI projections and results of facility investment in the manufacturing sector fell month-on-month.
2008
Business survey indexes (base=100)
2009
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Manufacturing facility investment result
99
96
95
88
80
-
Manufacturing facility investment prospect
98
99
96
93
86
78
Source: The Bank of Korea
12
January 2009
3-1
Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
3-2
Machinery orders and estimated facility investment (3-month average) Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
3-3
Machinery imports Source: Korea International Trade Association (KITA)
Economic Bulletin
13
4. Construction investment Construction investment (preliminary GDP) in the third quarter of 2008 continued to be sluggish, posting a year-on-year loss of 1.3 percent and staying unchanged from the previous quarter. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
Construction investment (Seasonally adjusted)
2
2007
20081
1
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
-0.1
1.2
3.7
1.6
-0.1
0.4
-1.1
-1.2
-1.3
-
-
-0.3
-1.2
0.2
1.2
-1.4
-1.0
0.0
3
- Building construction
-0.7
1.8
2.0
1.2
1.8
2.2
-0.3
-1.8
-1.9
- Civil engineering works
0.7
0.3
7.2
2.1
-2.9
-1.8
-2.5
-0.5
-0.2
1. Preliminary
2. National accounts
3. Percentage change from previous period
In November, construction completed (current value) turned downward due to a downturn in the construction sector. Construction completed in the public sector sharply slowed its growth to 4.4 percent in November from 20.4 percent in October, while that in the private sector deepened its downturn, posting a loss of 7.3 percent, down from a 3.0 percent decrease a month earlier. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
2007
Annual Annual Construction completed2
2.6
6.6
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Nov
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct1
Nov1
7.9
6.0
4.4
8.0
5.9
5.8
6.5
11.1
14.8
5.1
-2.0
- Building construction
1.8
6.2
6.5
4.1
4.0
9.8
4.6
4.7
6.6
9.4
12.5
-3.4
-8.7
- Civil engineering works
4.3
6.9
9.9
9.2
4.8
5.0
8.6
8.1
6.4
14.8
19.6
22.5
10.7
1. Preliminary
2. Industrial activity
Given the housing market downturn and diminishing investor confidence in the construction sector, it is expected that construction investment may decline further in the months to come. Business survey index for construction (base=100) 52.5 (Jul 2008)
52.3 (Aug)
50.1 (Sep)
31.1 (Oct)
14.6 (Nov)
Source: The Construction and Economy Research Institute of Korea
Construction orders (current value), one component of the leading composite indexes, dropped for the sixth consecutive month in November, due to a high base effect from November 2007 and a continued reduction in construction orders. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
2007
Annual Annual
Q1
2008
Q2
Q3
Q4
Nov
Q1
Q2
Q3
1
Sep1
Oct1
Nov1
Construction orders2
9.0
19.3
26.3
26.3
-5.6
29.5
36.3
-3.9
-6.1
-22.8
-40.4
-23.9
-35.4
- Public
-6.3
34.2
49.3
21.2
7.3
47.2
32.1
20.0
18.6
3.3
7.8
-25.6
-16.6
- Private
12.8
13.1
21.8
17.0
-12.9
28.6
27.7
-15.0
-5.9
-32.5
-59.9
-32.6
-41.4
Building permit area
19.5
13.3
-29
1.2
-21.3
80.8
92.0
-8.3
3.9
-13.5
-21
-60.3
-
1. Preliminary
14
2. Current value
January 2009
4-1
Construction investment Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
4-2
Construction completed and housing construction Source: Korea National Statistical Office (construction completed) Kookmin Bank (housing construction) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
4-3
Leading indicators of construction investment Source: Korea National Statistical Office (construction orders) Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (building construction permit area)
Economic Bulletin
15
5. Exports and imports Exports in December 2008 fell at a slightly slower pace than November, to US$27.29 billion (down 17.4%). According to the estimates by the Ministry of Knowledge and Economy, exports of Korea’s flagship products excluding vessels (up 69%) went south. In particular, exports of IT products such as semiconductors (down 50%) and computers (down 60%) tumbled. By regional category, except for exports to the Middle East (up 16%) and Central and South America (up 4%), those to the EU (down 44%), Japan (down 17%), China (down 32%), and ASEAN nations (down 28%) posted double-digit losses. (US$ billion) 2007 Oct
Nov
2008 Dec
Jan-Dec
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-Dec
Exports
34.43
35.81
33.03
371.49
37.17
29.02
27.29
422.41
(y-o-y, %)
(22.9)
(17.0)
(14.8)
(14.1)
(8.0)
(-19.0)
(-17.4)
(13.7)
Average daily exports
1.44
1.49
1.54
1.36
1.55
1.29
1.14
1.54
Imports
32.74
33.93
33.90
356.85
36.12
28.88
26.62
435.41
(y-o-y, %)
(27.8)
(26.8)
(23.2)
(14.6)
(10.3)
(-14.9)
(-21.5)
(22.0)
Average daily imports
1.36
1.41
1.58
1.31
1.51
1.28
1.11
1.58
Trade balance
1.69
1.88
-0.87
14.64
1.05
0.14
0.67
-13.00
December imports dropped precipitously to US$26.62 billion (down 21.5%) as a result of drops in raw material prices. In addition, weak domestic demand sent the import of raw materials, capital goods and consumer goods retrenching. In 2008, imports increased 22.0 percent from the previous year to US$435.41 billion. Raw materials (y-o-y, %) 57.1 (Aug 2008)
60.9 (Sep)
20.4 (Oct)
-7.4 (Nov)
-12.4 (Dec 1~20)
Capital goods (y-o-y, %) 7.9 (Aug 2008)
26.2 (Sep)
0.1 (Oct)
-23.8 (Nov)
-25.4 (Dec 1~20)
Consumer goods (y-o-y, %) 8.8 (Aug 2008)
18.9 (Sep)
-10.1 (Oct)
-28.8 (Nov)
-16.1 (Dec 1~20)
Korea managed to post a trade surplus of US$670 million in December, marking a third consecutive month of trade surplus since October 2008. However, in 2008, it posted a trade deficit of US$13.0 billion. Exports for January 2009 are expected to decrease further due to low foreign demands arising from the global economic downturn and a 2.5 day reduction in the number of working days from the New Year’s holidays. On the import side, oil prices are forecast to continue to play a role in driving down imports since the drop in crude oil prices was not fully reflected in the unit price of crude oil imports, which stood at US$52 in December 2008. Dubai crude oil price in Dec 2008 (US$/barrel) 41 (monthly average), 36 (end-period)
16
January 2009
5-1
Exports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-2
Imports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-3
Trade balance Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
Economic Bulletin
17
6. Mining and manufacturing production Production in mining and manufacturing declined 14.1 percent from a year earlier in November 2008 after recording a year-on-year fall of 2.3 percent in October, due to sluggish domestic demand, a drop in exports from an 8 percent gain in October to a 19 percent loss in November and a 1.5 day decrease in the number of working days. In working-day-adjusted terms, production in mining and manufacturing slipped 9.7 percent year-on-year in November after falling 2 percent in October. On a monthly basis, it contracted 10.7 percent in November, marking the fifth consecutive month-to-month drop. By business category, semiconductors and parts (down 25.6%), automobiles (down 16.2%), and audiovisual telecommunications equipment (down 23.8%) contributed to a year-onyear reduction in output.
Contribution to year-on-year output growth (%p) Semiconductors and parts (-4.76), automobiles (-1.85), audiovisual telecommunications equipment (-1.53)
November shipments tumbled 13.4 percent year-on-year compared to a 2.2 percent fall in October due to reduced exports and decreased domestic demand. By business category, shipments of semiconductors and parts plunged 23.3 percent while automobiles slumped 16.8 percent. Growth in inventories fell slightly to 15.9 percent from 17.6 percent a month earlier, likely due to the results of companies’ production cuts in response to stagnating sales arising from the economic slowdown. Average operation ratio fell to 68.0 percent in November from 77.0 percent a month earlier.
(Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007 Q3
Nov
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct1
Nov1
-
2.6
0.1
1.4
-2.2
-0.6
-2.2
-10.7
(y-o-y)
6.8
5.9
7.6
8.6
5.6
6.1
-2.3
-14.1
(Days operated reflected)
7.0
9.2
7.6
9.4
3.1
-0.9
-2.0
-9.7
- Manufacturing
7.0
6.2
7.6
9.0
5.5
6.0
-2.8
-14.8
Heavy chemical industry
8.2
8.0
8.9
11.1
6.7
6.8
-2.7
-15.3
Light industry
1.7
-1.5
1.4
-0.7
0.5
2.1
-3.3
-12.1
Production (q-o-q, m-o-m)
Mining and manufacturing activity2
Shipment
7.1
5.4
7.6
6.3
5.4
5.9
-2.2
-13.4
- Domestic demand
4.9
3.0
4.7
1.7
1.7
1.2
-4.3
-14.3
- Exports
10.2
9.1
12.0
13.5
10.5
12.4
0.7
-12.3
5.7
2.6
4.3
16.5
17.6
17.6
17.6
15.9
80.3
80.0
80.6
81.0
78.5
77.3
77.0
68.0
5.2
5.8
6.2
6.2
4.9
4.5
3.1
2.9
Inventory
3
Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) activity Production capacity 1. Preliminary
2008
Annual
2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry
3. End-period
December’s production in the mining and manufacturing sector is unlikely to rebound, due to weak domestic demand and flagging exports which shrank 17.4 percent in December following a contraction of 19 percent in November.
18
January 2009
6-1
Industrial production Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
6-2
Average manufacturing operation ratio Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
6-3
Inventory Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
19
7. Service sector activity Service activity in November 2008 reversed to negative growth for the first time since February 2005, with a decrease of 1.6 percent from a year earlier. By business category, healthcare & social welfare services (up 6.7%) and entertainment, cultural & sports services (up 3.1%) stayed on the upward track. Meanwhile, real estate & rental services (down 7.6%), wholesale & retail sales (down 6.5%), and transportation services (down 5.7%) have shown sluggish performance, reflecting deteriorating consumer sentiment and a contracting housing market. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) Weight
2007
2006 Annual Annual
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Nov
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct1
Nov1
Service activity index
100
5.5
6.4
5.4
6.1
7.2
6.8
6.3
6.4
4.6
2.8
3.3
1.4
-1.6
- Wholesale & retail
22.0
3.8
4.3
4.3
3.7
4.2
5.2
4.5
3.9
2.5
3.1
0.4
-3.0
-6.5
- Hotels & restaurants
7.8
2.2
2.4
2.0
2.6
2.2
2.9
2.2
3.1
1.7
1.4
2.8
1.2
-1.5
- Transportation services
9.0
6.9
7.1
6.6
5.5
8.4
8.1
8.4
7.7
8.1
3.4
3.2
-0.2
-5.7
- Communication services
5.0
3.6
3.7
3.1
2.9
2.3
6.3
5.4
4.8
4.6
3.8
5.6
-0.1
0.3
- Financial & insurance services
15.4
9.0
16.0
9.5
16.3
18.3
19.5
19.5
15.3
10.0
9.3
12.7
4.1
3.1
- Real estate & renting
6.3
9.8
2.7
6.9
2.0
6.6
-3.5
-8.6
5.8
2.6
-8.6
-4.0
-8.1
-7.6
- Business services
10.0
5.7
6.6
5.3
6.7
7.0
7.4
7.2
5.0
3.8
1.9
0.4
2.9
1.2
- Educational services
10.6
2.6
2.3
3.0
2.5
2.5
1.4
2.8
3.3
1.9
-0.5
0.3
8.7
-4.0
- Healthcare & social welfare services
6.0
11.0
8.5
8.3
9.0
9.2
7.4
6.8
6.2
6.8
6.0
7.3
7.4
6.7
- Entertainment, cultural & sports services
3.8
1.8
6.4
5.5
6.4
7.5
5.7
6.2
4.1
1.8
1.2
-0.5
4.9
6.3
- Other public & personal services
4.2
3.8
0.7
1.0
0.1
0.7
1.0
0.3
2.0
0.9
-1.5
-0.3
-1.2
-1.5
1. Preliminary
Service output growth in December is expected to remain weak as domestic demand contracted. Private consumption (y-o-y, %) 4.6 (Q4 2007)
20
January 2009
3.4 (Q1 2008)
2.3 (Q2)
1.1 (Q3)
7-1
Service industry Source: Korea National Statistical Office (service industry activity trend)
7-2
Wholesale and retail sales Source: Korea National Statistical Office (service industry activity trend)
Nov 2008 service industry by business
serv ices Hea l t h serv care ices & s ocia l we lfar e Ente spo rtainm rts s en ervi t, cu ces ltura l& Oth & p er pub erso lic, nal repa serv ir ices
Edu cati ona l
Bus ines s se rvic es
rent ing Rea l es tate &
Com mun icat ion serv ices Fina serv ncial & ices insu ranc e
Tran spo rtat ion
rest aura nts Hot els &
Wh oles ale &
reta il
Source: Korea National Statistical Office (service industry activity trend)
Tota l ind ex
7-3
Economic Bulletin
21
8. Employment The number of Korean workers on payroll in November 2008 increased a mere 78,000 from a year earlier due mainly to sluggish domestic demand and slowed exports, indicating a further deterioration in the Korean job market. The job growth was the lowest since December 2003 when it recorded a meager 44,000. Year-on-year employment growth in the service sector significantly slowed to 111,000 from 210,000 of the previous month as hiring decreased from a year earlier in wholesale & retail sales and hotels & restaurants (down 80,000) and financial & insurance services (down 30,000). Employment in the manufacturing sector continued its downward trend caused by slow exports and structural factors such as informatization, with a year-on-year decrease of 56,000 in November. It fell 63,000 in the previous month. Hiring in the construction sector stayed on a downward track in November with a decrease of 29,000, due to a recent slump in the housing market and dampened investor sentiment in construction. It had declined 38,000 in the previous month. Agriculture, forestry and fisheries, which had continued its downward trend in employment until last month, shifted to an increase in November. They gained 47,000 jobs after shedding 17,000 jobs a month earlier. By status of workers, growth in the number of wage workers has sharply decelerated to 159,000, as companies held back from hiring new employees amid worsening internal and external conditions. The number of temporary or daily workers, in particular, shrank significantly by 159,000 from a year earlier, although that of regular workers increased 318,000. The employment rate stood at 59.9 percent, down 0.5 percentage points compared to the same month of the previous year. The unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage point year-on-year to 3.1 percent, while the unemployment rate of youths aged 15 to 29 was up 0.3 percentage points from a year earlier to 6.8 percent. (Change from same period in previous year, thousand) 2007
2008
Annual
Q3
Q4
Oct
Nov
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct
Nov
282
296
278
287
281
210
173
141
112
97
78
- Agriculture, forestry and fishery
-58
-72
-67
-68
-57
-62
-52
-34
-25
-17
47
- Manufacturing
-48
-50
-37
-40
-44
-24
-25
-38
-54
-63
-56
- Construction
15
-6
-9
-9
-13
-17
-38
-33
-47
-38
-29
- Services
373
424
392
404
402
312
285
242
234
210
111
Employment growth
Unemployment rate (%)
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.4
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.1
Employment rate (%)
59.8
60.2
60.0
60.4
60.4
58.5
60.4
59.9
59.8
60.0
59.9
22
January 2009
8-1
Number of employed and employment growth Source: Korea National Statistical Office (employment trend)
8-2
Share of employed by industry Source: Korea National Statistical Office (employment trend)
8-3
Unemployment rate and number of unemployed Source: Korea National Statistical Office (employment trend)
Economic Bulletin
23
9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market The Korean stock market regained some stability in December 2008, helped by domestic as well as international efforts to stabilize the financial market and boost the lackluster economy. The Bank of Korea cut its benchmark interest rate by 1.0 percentage point to 3.0 percent on December 11, and the Korean government announced the ‘2009 Economic Policy Directions’ on December 16. On the international side, US President-elect Barack Obama laid out key parts of his economic recovery plan on December 6, while the US Federal Reserve slashed its target federal funds rate from 1 percent to between zero and 0.25 percent on December 16. Foreign investors turned their positions into net-buyers of Korean shares for the first time in 7 months as the selling spree was subdued by increased dollar liquidity and an eased global credit crunch. Net selling by foreign investors (trillion won) 33.8 (Jan-Oct 2008)
1.6 (Nov)
0.9 (Dec) (End-period, point, trillion won)
KOSPI
Stock price index Market capitalization
KOSDAQ
2007
Dec 2008
Change1
2007
Dec 2008
Change1
1,897.1
1,124.5
-772.6 (-40.7%)
704.2
332.1
-372.1 (-52.9%)
951.9
576.9
-375.0 (-39.4%)
99.9
46.1
-53.8 (-53.9%)
5.5
5.1
0.4 (-7.2%)
2.0
1.2
-0.8 (-40.0%)
Average daily trade value 1. Change from the end of previous year
9.2 Exchange rate The won/dollar exchange rate in December 2008 dropped steadily thanks to a current account surplus, foreign investors’ shift to net buyers, and the recovering stock market. It plunged by 209.5 won to wrap up the month at 1,259.5 won. The foreign currency market stabilized during the month backed by the government’s pumping of foreign currency liquidity and the expanded currency swap deals with Japan and China, which also attributed to the considerable fall in the exchange rate. The won/yen exchange rate fell to the 1,390 won range fueled by the won’s sharp appreciation, although the yen gained strength against the dollar on an interest rate cut by the FRB and deteriorating economic indicators in the US. (End-period) 2005
2006
2007
2008
Dec
Dec
Dec
Nov
Dec
Change1
Won/Dollar
1,011.6
929.8
936.1
1,469.0
1,259.0
-25.7
Won/100Yen
858.5
783.4
828.6
1,512.3
1,396.8
-40.7
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.
24
January 2009
9-1
Stock prices
9-2
Foreign exchange rate (month-end)
9-3
Recent foreign exchange rate
Economic Bulletin
25
9.3 Bond market Bond yields continued to stabilize in December 2008 mainly as the Bank of Korea cut its policy rate by 100 basis points on December 11, and as the government provided the market with further liquidity. Bond yields of CDs, in particular, fell by 152 basis points during the month to the 3 percent range, and those of corporate bonds, which had remained high in the past months, turned to a decrease. (End-period) 2004
2005
2006
2007
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Sep
Oct
2008 Nov
Dec
Change1
Call rate (1 day)
3.29
3.76
4.60
5.02
5.22
4.14
3.99
3.02
-200
CD (91 days)
3.43
4.09
4.86
5.82
5.83
5.98
5.45
3.93
-189
Treasury bonds (3 yrs)
3.28
5.08
4.92
5.74
5.74
4.47
4.87
3.41
-233
Corporate bonds (3 yrs)
3.72
5.52
5.29
6.77
7.76
8.13
8.91
7.72
95
Treasury bonds (5 yrs)
3.39
5.36
5.00
5.78
5.75
4.72
5.04
3.77
-201
1. Basis point changes in December 2008 from end December 2007
9.4 Money supply & money market The year-on-year M2 (monthly average) growth in October 2008 decelerated slightly to 14.2 percent from the same month of the previous year. Although M2 growth continued in private credits such as corporate loans, money outflow in the overseas sector by foreign investors’ net selling of Korean shares was mainly blamed for the overall slowdown of M2 growth. (Percentage change from same period in previous year, period average) 2006
2007
Annual Annual
Q1
Q2
2008 Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct
Oct1
M12
9.1
8.1
9.4
9.8
8.3
4.8
2.9
4.1
4.8
4.9
5.6
344.3
M2
8.3
11.2
11.5
11.0
11.1
11.2
13.3
15.3
14.7
14.5
14.2
1,404.0
Lf 3
7.9
10.2
10.0
10.2
10.2
10.5
11.6
12.8
12.1
12.2
11.9
1,845.8
1. Balance, trillion won 2. Excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3)
In October, bank deposit growth accelerated thanks to investors’ growing appetite for safer assets and higher deposit rates. Asset management company (AMC) deposits shifted to an increase as money inflow into money market funds (MMFs) grew at an even faster pace, backed by a massive inflow of government funds. (Monthly change, end-period, trillion won) 2007
2008
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-Oct
Aug
Sep
Oct
Bank deposits
-8.3
4.3
6.5
7.6
11.3
-4.3
98.2
15.6
7.4
21.8
AMC deposits
3.9
4.0
3.3
13.0
14.3
-0.4
47.4
4.0
-20.4
2.4
26
January 2009
9-4
Interest rates Source: The Bank of Korea
9-5
Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea
9-6
Share of deposits by financial sector (M3 as of year-end) Source: The Bank of Korea * Retail finance: Mutual savings banks & National Credit Union Federation of Korea, Others: Investment banks, post office savings, etc.
Economic Bulletin
27
10. Balance of payments South Korea posted a current account surplus of US$2.06 billion in November 2008. The accumulated current account for the first 11 months of 2008, however, recorded US$7.12 billion in deficit. The goods account registered a surplus of US$990 million compared to the previous year’s US$2.72 billion as imports decreased at a faster pace than exports amid declining international oil prices and weak domestic demand. The service account improved considerably to post a US$130 million deficit from a US$1.41 billion deficit a year earlier, on the back of surpluses in the travel and transportation accounts despite deficits in the business service and other service sectors. The income account surplus expanded remarkably to US$720 million compared with US$470 million a year earlier. It decreased, however, from the previous month’s US$1.41 billion due to the reduced income account surplus. The capital transfer account has registered a surplus for two consecutive months as Korean residents overseas remitted more money to their home country amid the won’s depreciation. The capital transfer account recorded a US$470 million surplus compared with a US$110 million deficit in the same month of the previous year. (US$ billion) 2007
Current account
2008
Sep
Oct
Nov
Jan-Nov
Sep
Oct
Nov
Jan-Nov
1.98
3.01
1.67
6.71
-1.35
4.75
2.06
-7.12
- Goods balance
3.24
4.36
2.72
27.50
-0.89
2.63
0.99
4.65
- Service balance
-1.53
-1.53
-1.41
-18.00
-1.24
-0.05
-0.13
-15.22
Travel balance
-1.27
-1.26
-1.14
-14.48
-0.39
0.50
0.42
-7.84
- Income balance
0.63
0.45
0.47
0.44
0.79
1.41
0.72
4.53
- Current transfers
-0.36
-0.28
-0.11
-3.23
-0.02
0.77
0.47
-1.08
The capital and financial account balance suffered a net outflow of US$12.14 billion in November due mainly to foreigners’ net selling of Korean shares and bonds. The volume of net outflow, however, reduced from the previous month’s US$24.83 billion as a net redemption of overseas borrowings by domestic financial institutions tumbled to US$10.24 billion compared with US$20.41 billion a month earlier. Capital & financial account balance (US$ billion) -3.9 (Sep 2007)
-3.8 (Oct)
-0.4 (Nov), -4.4 (Sep 2008)
-24.8 (Oct)
-12.1 (Nov)
The current account is expected to remain on the surplus side in December as the trade balance recorded a US$670 million surplus.
28
January 2009
10-1 Current account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-2 Travel balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-3 Capital & financial account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
Economic Bulletin
29
11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices Consumer prices rose by 4.1 percent year-on-year in December 2008, slowing its growth for the fifth straight month. During the year 2008, consumer prices advanced 4.7 percent from the previous year. In month-on-month terms, consumer prices remained the same as oil product prices dropped 8.8 percent due to declining international oil prices and fuel tax cuts, while prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products increased due to seasonal factors. The average price of Dubai crude decreased by 17.8 percent in December to US$40.7 a barrel from the previous month’s US$49.9 a barrel. Prices of oil products in Dec 2008 (m-o-m, %) Gasoline (-11.9), diesel (-8.0), kerosene (-13.6)
Prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products were up 2.3 percent from a month earlier as prices of vegetables including leeks, cucumbers and onions increased, and prices of some fishery products such as mackerel rose on the tighter supply-demand balance. Prices of agricultural products in Dec 2008 (m-o-m, %) Leek (29.4), cucumber (19.5), onion (11.6), pumpkin (10.9), mackerel (7.4)
Consumer price inflation in major sectors Total
Agricultural, livestock & fishery products
Industrial products
Oil products
Public utility
Housing rents
Personal services
0.0
2.3
-0.7
-8.8
-0.3
0.1
0.2
Contribution (%p)
-
0.18
-0.22
-0.51
-0.04
0.01
0.06
Year-on-Year (%)
4.1
2.5
4.9
-8.9
1.8
2.4
5.4
Contribution (%p)
-
0.21
1.50
-0.54
0.29
0.23
1.87
Month-on-Month (%)
Core consumer prices, which exclude the prices of oil and agricultural products, rose by 5.6 percent year-on-year as increases in international raw material prices were reflected with some time lag. Consumer prices for basic necessities, a barometer of perceived consumer prices, were up 3.0 percent in December compared to the same month of the previous year.
Consumer price inflation 2007 Dec
2008 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Month-on-Month (%)
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.9
0.6
0.8
0.6
0.7
-0.2
0.1
-0.1
-0.3
0.0
Year-on-Year (%)
3.6
3.9
3.6
3.9
4.1
4.9
5.5
5.9
5.6
5.1
4.8
4.5
4.1
Core consumer prices (y-o-y)
2.4
2.8
2.8
3.3
3.5
3.9
4.3
4.6
4.7
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.6
(m-o-m)
0.2
0.6
0.4
1.1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.3
0.5
Consumer prices for basic necessities (y-o-y)
4.8
5.1
4.6
4.9
5.1
5.9
7.0
7.1
6.6
5.5
4.8
4.0
3.0
30
January 2009
11-1 Prices Source: Korea National Statistical Office (consumer prices, core inflation) & The Bank of Korea (producer prices)
11-2 Consumer price inflation Source: Korea National Statistical Office (consumer price trend)
11-3 Contribution to consumer price inflation Source: Korea National Statistical Office (consumer price trend)
Economic Bulletin
31
11.2. International oil and commodity prices Despite a decision by the OPEC to greatly reduce oil production, international oil prices fell in December 2008 due to the prospect that the global economic slowdown would dampen oil demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and other energy related institutions have lowered their 2009 forecasts for global oil demand and prices. (US$/barrel, period average) 2005
2006
2007
Annual
Annual
Annual
Jun
Jul
Aug
2008 Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Dubai crude
49.4
61.6
68.4
127.9
131.3
112.9
96.3
67.7
49.9
40.5
Brent crude
54.3
65.1
72.8
132.7
133.6
113.5
98.2
72.0
52.7
40.4
WTI crude
56.5
66.0
72.3
133.9
133.4
116.6
103.7
76.6
57.3
41.6
Record high oil prices (spot prices, US$/barrel) Dubai crude: 140.7 (Jul 4, 2008), Brent crude: 144.5 (Jul 3), WTI crude: 145.5 (Jul 14)
Prices of domestic oil products including gasoline and diesel fell from a month earlier as international oil product prices decreased with lower international oil prices and higher gasoline inventories. (Won/liter, period average) (Won/liter, period average)
2005
2006
2007
2008
Annual
Annual
Annual
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Gasoline prices
1,432
1,492
1,526
1,907
1,923
1,785
1,716
1,687
1,514
1,329
Diesel prices
1,080
1,228
1,273
1,910
1,919
1,766
1,664
1,602
1,416
1,303
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Overall international prices of major non-ferrous metals and grain were down month-onmonth in December, dragged down by increasing inventories and concerns over falling demand amid the global economic slowdown. Prices of non-ferrous metals declined as inventories of bronze, zinc and aluminum expanded while demand was expected to fall given deteriorating economic indicators in major consumer countries such as the US and China. International grain prices fell due to reduced US imports in line with lowering global demand and a forecast by the Department of Agriculture (USDA) that global grain inventories will decrease in coming months. Toward the end of the month, however, grain prices turned to an increase due to the dollar’s shift to a depreciation affected by the FRB’s interest rate cut as well as worsening weather conditions, constraining the overall decline of the month. Prices of non-ferrous metals and agricultural products in Dec 2008 (m-o-m, %) Corn (-3.1), wheat (-0.3), soybean (-3.1), bronze (-17.0), aluminum (-19.0), nickel (-9.0), zinc (-4.3), lead (-25.2), tin (-16.9)
Reuters index*
(Period average)
2005
2006
2007
Annual
Annual
Annual
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
1,680
2,019
2,400
2,765
2,775
2,663
2,512
2,127
1,965
1,767
* A weighted average index of 17 major commodities
32
January 2009
2008
11-4 International oil prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
11-5 International oil prices (Dubai crude) and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation & Korea Customs Service
11-6 International commodity prices Source: Bloomberg (CRB) & The Bank of Korea (Reuters index) * CRB demonstrates futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry.
Economic Bulletin
33
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market In December, the sliding pace of apartment sales prices expanded from the previous month, due to worsening investor sentiment amid the property market downturn stemming from the economic slowdown as well as increased supply of newly built houses. Apartment sales prices rose a mere 2.3 percent year-on-year in 2008 compared with the long-term average increase of 6.8 percent from 1987 to 2008.
Nationwide apartment sales prices 2005
2006
Annual
Annual
Nationwide
5.9
13.8
2.1
Seoul
9.1
24.1
13.5 3.2
Gangnam Gangbuk
2
3
(Percentage change from previous period)
2007
2008
Annual Annual
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Dec11
Dec81
Dec151 Dec221 Dec291
2.3
0.1
0.2
-0.1
-0.5
-0.9
-0.17
-0.21
-0.20
-0.24
-0.16
3.6
3.2
0.0
0.0
-0.3
-0.8
-1.6
-0.29
-0.42
-0.36
-0.43
-0.25
27.6
0.5
-1.9
-0.1
-0.1
-0.5
-1.2
-2.0
-0.39
-0.52
-0.41
-0.55
-0.34
19.0
8.3
9.4
0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.4
-1.3
-0.18
-0.31
-0.31
-0.31
-0.16
1. Weekly trends 2. Upscale area of southern Seoul Source: Kookmin Bank
3. Northern Seoul
The average rental prices contracted further from the previous month in tandem with lowering sales prices affected by a backlog of newly built houses and sluggish demand due to seasonal factors.
Nationwide apartment rental prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2005
2006
Annual
Annual
Nationwide
5.7
7.6
1.9
0.8
Seoul
6.2
11.5
2.2
-1.8
Gangnam2
8.6
11.3
0.5
-3.6
Gangbuk
2.9
11.8
4.6
0.5
0.1
3
2007
2008
Annual Annual
1. Weekly trends 2. Upscale area of southern Seoul Source: Kookmin Bank
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Dec11
Dec81
Dec151 Dec221 Dec291
0.1
0.3
0.2
-0.4
-1.4
-0.26
-0.33
-0.37
-0.40
-0.27
0.0
0.1
-0.2
-1.0
-2.7
-0.55
-0.70
-0.69
-0.64
-0.42
-0.1
-0.1
-0.6
-1.2
-2.9
-0.59
-0.75
-0.69
-0.80
-0.46
0.4
0.2
-0.7
-2.4
-0.50
-0.65
-0.68
-0.45
-0.37
3. Northern Seoul
Apartment sales transactions decreased 14,000 from the previous month, the sharpest decline since 2006 when the figures were first recorded. They fell 33.0 percent year-on-year.
Apartment sales transactions 2005
2006
Annual Annual Annual 79
94
84
Source: Korea Land Corporation
34
January 2009
(Monthly average, thousand) 2008
2007 Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
76
80
70
88
97
82
85
84
63
61
68
54
12-1 Real estate prices Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
12-2 Weekly apartment sales prices and monthly transaction volume Source: Kookmin Bank (weekly APT price trend) & Korea Land Corporation (monthly land trade trend)
12-3 Apartment prices by region Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
Economic Bulletin
35
12.2 Land market Nationwide land prices in November 2008 decreased for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2000 when land prices fell 0.46 percent. They fell 1.44 percent month-on-month due mainly to an economic contraction and weakness in the property market. In Seoul, land prices fell for two consecutive months, as they fell considerably in Yongsan-gu (down 3.47%), Gangnam-gu (down 3.02%) and Seocho-gu (down 3.00%). Land prices in Gyeonggi province, which had enjoyed high increases with various development projects, turned to a decrease for the first time since 1998.
Land prices by region
(Percentage change from previous period)
2005
2007
2006
Annual Annual Annual
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct
Nov Jan-Nov
Nationwide
4.98
5.61
3.88
0.96
0.79
0.91
1.15
1.23
1.46
1.18
0.32
0.04
-1.44
2.47
Seoul
6.56
9.17
5.88
1.38
1.07
1.40
1.90
1.83
2.17
1.59
0.39
-0.24
-2.72
2.57
Gyeonggi
5.69
5.07
4.22
1.07
0.89
1.05
1.14
1.28
1.57
1.28
0.33
0.15
-1.33
2.96
South Chungcheong
8.32
5.54
2.02
0.46
0.41
0.42
0.71
0.75
0.83
0.95
0.30
0.18
-1.03
1.69
Nationwide land transactions in November decreased 38.4 percent from the same month of the previous year to record 149 thousand land lots, the lowest level since February 2001 when land transactions posted 138 thousand land lots.
Land sales transactions 2004
(Monthly average, land lot, thousand) 2005
2006
2007
2008 Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Nationwide
Annual Annual Annual Annual Feb 218
248
237
208
190
237
269
248
244
245
175
173
191
149
Seoul
34
36
44
33
24
32
41
36
38
34
18
20
23
14
Gyeonggi
52
56
63
49
40
50
61
58
55
57
38
37
36
28
North Chungcheong
8
11
9
9
9
10
11
10
9
11
9
9
9
7
South Chungcheong
20
17
12
11
12
15
13
15
15
14
12
10
11
10
36
January 2009
12-4 Land and consumer prices since 1970s Source: Korea Land Corporation (land prices) & Korea National Statistical Office (consumer prices)
12-5 Land prices by region Source: Korea Land Corporation (land price trend)
12-6 Land trade volume Source: Korea Land Corporation (land trade trend)
Economic Bulletin
37
13. Composite indexes of business cycle indicators The cyclical indicator of coincident composite index, a barometer of current economic conditions, decreased 2.0 points in November from the previous month, staying on the downward track for the tenth straight month. All eight components of the index, i.e., the number of non-farm payroll employment (down 0.2%), mining and manufacturing production index (down 4.4%), manufacturing operation ratio index (down 4.5%), value of construction completed (down 2.0%), service activity index (down 0.1%), wholesale & retail sales index (down 3.2%), domestic shipment index (down 3.5%), and volume of imports (down 0.6%) decreased. Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (m-o-m, p) -0.5 (Jun 2008)
-0.2 (Jul)
-0.3 (Aug)
-0.2 (Sep)
-0.8 (Oct)
-2.0 (Nov)
The year-on-year leading composite index, which foresees future economic conditions, went down for the twelfth month in a row in November with a month-on-month decrease of 1.3 percentage points. Two out of all components of the index, i.e., liquidity in the financial institutions and spreads between long and short-term interest rates were up, while the value of machinery orders received, composite stock price index, indicator of inventory cycle, and capital goods imports significantly declined. In November, the leading composite index, which had remained nearly unchanged in the past months, fell considerably compared with the previous month. Eight components of the leading composite index fell in Nov 2008 (m-o-m) Ratio of job openings to job seekers (-2.6%p), indicator of inventory cycle (-5.8%p), consumer expectations index (-3.6p), value of machinery orders received (-7.8%), capital goods imports (-9.1%), value of construction orders received (-3.4%p), composite stock price index (-11.1%), net terms of trade index (-0.6%)
12 month smoothed change in leading composite index (m-o-m, %p) -1.1 (Jun 2008)
-1.1 (Jul)
-0.6 (Aug)
-0.3 (Sep)
-0.7 (Oct)
-1.3 (Nov)
Leading composite index 113.6 (Jun 2008)
112.8 (Jul)
112.6 (Aug)
112.6 (Sep)
112.1 (Oct)
110.9 (Nov)
2008 Jul
Aug
Sep1
Oct1
Nov1
Coincident composite index (m-o-m, %)
0.2
0.1
0.2
-0.3
-1.5
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index
99.7
99.4
99.2
98.4
96.4
(m-o-m, p)
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
-0.8
-2.0
Leading composite index (m-o-m, %)
-0.7
-0.2
0.0
-0.4
-1.1
12 month smoothed change in leading composite index (%)
0.1
-0.5
-0.8
-1.5
-2.8
(m-o-m, %p)
-1.1
-0.6
-0.3
-0.7
-1.3
1. Preliminary
38
January 2009
13-1 Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index Source: Korea National Statistical Office
13-2 Leading composite index Source: Korea National Statistical Office
13-3 Coincident and leading composite indexes Source: Korea National Statistical Office
Economic Bulletin
39
Policy Issues 2009 Economic Policy Direction
1. Background The current global economic difficulties have escalated into an “once-in-a-century� crisis, the likes of which the world has not seen since the Great Depression of 1929. With the expected changes to the economic pecking order, the role of emerging market nations will become bigger. To overcome the crisis and turn it into an opportunity to become a stronger and more advanced nation, a new, innovative paradigm is necessary. Anticipatory measures and responses in accordance with this paradigm will also be required. The Korean government has prepared three major responses as an answer to these requirements; first, short-term measures to maintain the current employment level; second, measures to prepare for the future; and third, measures to enhance capabilities to revitalize the economy.
2. Short-term measures to maintain employment levels To maintain the current employment rate, stimulation of the market and promotion of job sharing are required. Stabilizing market interest rates and expanding currency exchange liquidity will help the financial and foreign currency market. 60 percent of fiscal investment will be executed preemptively in the first half of 2009 to mitigate the economic difficulties. In particular, 65 percent of SOC and employment programs will be carried out in the first half of the year. Also, further tax cuts and public expenditure policies will be carried out to stimulate the market. As for job sharing, the government will increase support for paid training leave, reduced work hours, and offer wages support for job sharing. Public employment and educational welfare will be improved. Support for the low-income class and the unemployed will likewise
40
January 2009
be increased, including a limited-time living cost provision. Similarly, tax and financial support will be boosted as well.
3. Preparing for the future In preparing for the future, job creation capabilities shall be enhanced through financial and corporate structural adjustments, more efficient job training, and expanded social infrastructure. To support the real economy, capital expansion measures will be offered to commercial banks provided they show efforts to rescue themselves. Giving assistance to financial institutions in settling bad debts and the promotion of savings banks’ structural adjustments will also be carried out. On the subject of structural adjustments, liquidity support will be given to healthy corporations that have the potential to survive the economic crisis. On the other hand, marginal corporations nearing bankruptcy will be encouraged to shut down their operations preemptively to prevent further damage. As for job training, SME internship programs and young adult training will be expanded, while job training will be offered to the unemployed and the low-income class to increase their employment capabilities. To expand the social infrastructure, a series of economic programs will be instituted, similar to the New Deal by Franklin Roosevelt. One example is a development project to improve the ecosystems of the four major river basins. The government will also seek to improve the tripartite relationship, which will allow for a more flexible labor market to help with employment.
4. Measures to enhance capabilities to revitalize the economy Measures to enhance economic recovery capabilities center on developing a strategy to turn the global crisis into an opportunity to become a stronger, wealthier nation. First, investment in research and development will be increased to match the levels of advanced nations. An efficient support structure will be established and set in place to cope with such an increase. Secondly, foreign resources will be secured, and assets commissioned to the KIC will be expanded to help in the mergers and acquisitions of foreign corporations. Also, overseas human resources will be utilized more efficiently through formation of a Global Korea Network.
Economic Bulletin
41
5. Conclusion If the current situation does not improve, it will not be an easy task to maintain current growth and employment levels in the year 2009. Nonetheless, the government will strive to achieve a growth rate in the vicinity of low 2 percent, as well as make available 50,000 new jobs through additional tax deductions and public expenditures. But, most importantly, cooperation among the government, businesses, and the people are absolutely crucial to overcome the global economic crisis and turn it into an opportunity to become a stronger nation.
The Green New Deal: A New Growth Engine for the Korean Economy
1. Background As the credit crunch spreads to the real economy, most countries in the world are facing economic difficulties. For the first time since World War II, the US, Japan and the eurozone along with other major countries projected that their economic growth would fall into negative territory. The global economy is not predicted to recover anytime soon. World Bank projection for 2009 economic growth (%, projected in Dec 2008) 0.9 (World), -0.5 (US), -0.1 (Japan), 7.5 (China), 2.0 (Korea)
The Korean economy saw its growth rate fall to lower than four percent after it enjoyed seven to eight percent economic growth for the last ten years. The slowing growth rate negatively affected job markets, resulting in economic hardships for the lower-income class. Furthermore, the current account surplus has been in decline since 2004, and there is no prediction for economic recovery in 2009. The global crisis requires Korea to react in real time, and job markets need to be provided with more jobs.
42
January 2009
GDP growth rate (%) 5.8 (Q1 2008), 4.8 (Q2), 3.8 (Q3)
Increase in employment (annual average, thousand) 209 (Q1 2008), 173 (Q2), 141 (Q3), 54 (Q4), -12 (Dec)
Current account (US$ billion) 28.2 (2004), 15.0 (2005), 5.4 (2006), 6.0 (2007), -7.1 (Jan-Nov 2008)
The liquidity shortage has been eased as sufficient amounts of foreign and domestic currencies have been provided. However, to prevent the financial crisis from spreading to the real economy, more diverse measures need to be taken. As for financial policy, increased liquidity provisions and base rate cuts will not be effective enough if SMEs and families are under heavy debt burdens. Household debt (trillion won, end-period) 443.3 (2006), 474.1 (2007), 512.8 (Nov 2008)
As for taxation policy, it will take time for corporate and income tax reductions to translate into consumption and investment. In order to keep creating jobs and support economic growth, a policy mix of combining financial, fiscal, and taxation policies together should be introduced: To additionally provide sufficient liquidity along with carrying out tax reductions and fiscal expenditure expansion. Fiscal policy especially needs to be pursued in a way that it will respond to the current economic downturn in the short term, and develop growth engines in the mid and long term to prepare for the period post-crisis.
2. Main contents The Green New Deal is designed to combine green growth and job creation. In the short term, the Green New Deal will respond to the recent economic downturn and in the mid and long term, it will boost growth momentum to take Korea to the next level of green growth. The Green New Deal is not just one of several policy choices, but a vital strategy for Korea’s economic growth. It was created with the same purpose as the anticipatory measures of advanced nations such as the UK, the US, and Japan. The UK adopted a low-carbon and green economy as its national development strategy and has recently unveiled green projects aimed at creating 100,000 jobs through the construction of schools, hospitals, and railroads.
Economic Bulletin
43
US President-elect Barack Obama has announced a plan to invest US$150 billion into clean energy development over the next 10 years with the aim of creating 5 million jobs. Japan also plans to increase the scale of its environmental business market to 100 trillion yen by 2015 in a bid to create 2.2 million jobs in the market. In addition, the international community has long recommended green growth strategies. Both Agenda 21, revealed in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, and the World Summit on Sustainable Development (2002) in South Africa recommended water, energy, health, agriculture, and biodiversity (WEHAB) as five key sectors needed for sustainable development. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon urged the formation of international leagues for green growth and green economy-driven job creation at the 13th Climate Change Conference. The Green New Deal was crafted in line with such global trends, with its focus on the following areas: 1) energy conservation, recycling, and clean energy development to build an energysaving economy; 2) green transportation networks and clean water supplies to upgrade the quality of life and environment; 3) carbon reductions and stable supply of water resources to protect the earth and future generations; 4) building of industrial and information infrastructures, and technology development to use energy efficiently in the future.
4 Major focuses of the Green New Deal Conservation
Distributing green cars and clean energy, and expanding recycling
Better life quality
Creating energy-saving and eco-friendly neighborhoods, homes, schools, and offices
Environment protection
Revitalizing four major rivers and securing water resources
Preparations for the future
Bolstering information infrastructure and transport networks to improve energy efficiency
Two of the Green New Deal projects, revitalizing four rivers to secure clean water and water resources, and growing forests are among the five key projects adopted in the 2002 World Sustainable Development Summit. These two projects are indispensable for raising national competitiveness in the 21st century. In particular, the Korean government has increased efforts to overcome hurdles which previous policies encountered in achieving green growth and natural environment conservation. Public consensus on the need for environmental conservation was indeed forged in previous discussions. Actual funding, however, failed to materialize. Therefore, it was difficult to turn those environmental discussions into actual policy aimed at job creation and economic growth. The Green New Deal is an upgraded version of previous plans and is designed to bring
44
January 2009
tangible results with the help of its funding sources, and will not interfere in pursuing the stimulus plans featuring deregulation, tax cuts, and reformation of public organizations. Rather, the Green New Deal is closely interwoven with the stimulus plans since its goal is economic recovery, job creation, and institutional reforms. Moreover, the Green New Deal is based on the rule of “TTT (timely, targeted, and temporary)” which considers mid and long term growth potential and fiscal soundness. Various projects that several ministries have implemented independently will be consolidated into one package to facilitate policy implementation in a consistent and coordinated manner. The package will consist solely of core projects, curbing budget spending on non-core projects. The Korean government’s push for tax cuts and economic liberalization is firm enough to carry out the stimulus plans without delay. Even before the Lee administration took office, efforts for reforming public organizations had been launched. While five public organizations are closed down and the privatization of 22 public organizations takes place, the remaining 278 public organizations will be required to raise managerial efficiency under the 4-stage Plan for Managerial Efficiency for Public Organizations. Corporate tax cuts are being implemented as scheduled. An income tax cut of 2 percent and a rise in the threshold of tax deductions from 1 million won to 1.5 million won are in place. Corporate tax cuts for large companies 25%
22% (2009)
20% (2010)
Corporate tax cuts for SMEs 13%
11% (2009)
10% (2010)
Regulations on the Seoul metropolitan area which had long been blamed for dampening corporate activity were eliminated and streamlined to a great degree in October 2008. Regulations on industrial access to those areas have been lifted, allowing the construction and establishment of factories. Knowledge and IT industries will be permitted to relocate to the Seoul metropolitan area as part of an effort to build small-scale, high-tech industrial parks. In addition, Incheon will receive more foreign investments as the Incheon Free Economic Zone shifts from “cautionary overpopulation district” to “growth management district.” The IMF also points out that a combination of tax cuts and expansionary fiscal policies will have a bigger economy-boosting effect than when they are implemented separately.
Economic Bulletin
45
Economic News Briefing
The government establishes emergency economic council The Korean government established an emergency economic council as part of its efforts to transform itself into a “government of economic emergency” which was called for by President Lee in his New Year’s message delivered on January 2. In his speech, President Lee outlined four basic policies: To put the government in emergency mode to revive the economy; to care for people’s livelihood; to carry out reform measures systematically to join in the status of advanced nations; and to make preparations for green growth and the future. The emergency council consists of the Minister of Strategy and Finance, Chairman of the Financial Services Commission, Governor of the Bank of Korea and ranking economic officials from the Presidential Office, Cheong Wa Dae. The council will convene once a week, but additional sessions will be held and when necessary. A similar council had been organized for 14 months in 1998 and 1999 when the nation was struggling with the Asian economic crisis. The emergency meeting will tackle such major issues as job creation, enhanced support for SMEs, financial restructuring and the reinforcement of the social safety net. It will also run a vice-ministerial level working committee presided over by Park Byung-won, a senior presidential aide on economic affairs. The working committee will carve out agendas which will be discussed by the emergency council and coordinate differing opinions among relevant ministries.
46
January 2009
S. Korea and Japan to pursue pragmatic ties South Korea and Japan agreed in Seoul on January 12 to build a win-win relationship based upon an accurate understanding of history, in order to cultivate a future-oriented bilateral partnership. At a bilateral summit held at Cheong Wa Dae, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso concurred on the need to seek pragmatic economic collaboration, broaden cultural exchanges, help stabilize the Korean Peninsula and actively cooperate on international agendas. In addition, Seoul and Tokyo will work closely to coordinate financial reforms and macroeconomic policies to tackle the global downturn and fight against protectionism. In an effort to enhance pragmatic economic cooperation, President Lee and Prime Minister Aso will take steps to attract more Japanese manufacturers of machinery parts to set up in Korea as well as to increase business exchange and cooperation between SMEs from the two East Asian countries. The two countries will also speed up efforts to decide whether to resume negotiations for a free-trade deal, the two leaders said in a joint briefing after the meeting. The Korea-Japan summit meeting, which came after a trilateral summit with China in December 2008, is part of a new effort by the two Asian nations to strengthen their ties.
S. Korea lifts hurdle for the entry of foreigners into its handset market South Korea will remove a regulatory barrier that requires mobile phones to be embedded with its homegrown mobile standard, WIPI (Wireless Internet Platform for Interoperability), the Korea Communications Commission (KCC) announced on December 10, 2008. In a statement, the commission said it will modify the rule to let cell-phone carriers offer phones without the WIPI software starting from April 2009, to meet with the global development of mobile phones based on new types of software. The move will give overseas handset makers such as Nokia and Apple easier access to the Korean market for advanced cell-phones by eliminating the technical requirement that has become a barrier to entry. Also, Korean cell-phone users will have more choices with lower prices.
Economic Bulletin
47
Fund to be launched to bolster banks’ capital base South Korea will set up a 20 trillion won (US$15.1 billion) bank refinancing fund, tentatively termed “Bank Capital Expansion Fund,” to boost the capital ratios of domestic banks and encourage their lending to businesses, the Financial Services Commission (FSC) announced on December 18. It is entirely up to individual banks to decide whether to utilize the fund, which is scheduled to be available starting from January 2009 and run until the end of the year. The fund will be created with a ten trillion won loan from the Bank of Korea (BOK), in addition to two trillion won from the government-owned Korea Development Bank (KDB) and eight trillion won from the country’s institutional investors. Funds will be raised on a capital call basis: for each subscription by banks, the investing parties will inject the funds in proportion to their commitment ratio. Banks can tap the fund through sales of their new preferred shares, hybrid capital, or redeemable preferred stocks. The FSC and the BOK are to complete a detailed plan for the fund establishment and to confirm the participation of institutional and general investors in January 2009. Based on the progress made with domestic banks’ voluntary capital expansion initiatives, the FSC will implement supplementary capital expansion programs.
S. Korea to strengthen monitoring of derivatives market South Korea plans to improve its supervisory system as part of an effort to strengthen the competitiveness and the soundness of Korea’s capital markets amid the global financial turbulence. The proposed plan called “Improvements in Derivatives Market Supervision” outlines four main areas: Reorganizing the derivatives market monitoring system by setting up databases and reinforcing information analysis; strengthening investor protections by taking into consideration the characteristics of each respective product and investor; preventing derivatives-based transactions from overexposing financial institutions and posing system risk; and reexamining the derivatives market supervisory functions.
48
January 2009
European Commission grants equivalence to S. Korea’s Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) The European Commission (EC) granted equivalence to Korea’s Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) on December 12, 2008. With this decision, Korean companies listed in European markets are able to use their financial statements using Korean GAAP until 2011, saving costs associated with preparing their annual consolidated financial statements. This decision is attributed to Korea’s efforts to adopt the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) and the accounting supervisory system’s receipt of a positive review from the Committee of European Securities Regulators (CESR).
S. Korean overseas construction reaches 47.6 billion in 2008 Korean construction companies received record high overseas orders of US$47.6 billion in 2008. The amount brings Korea’s accumulated foreign construction orders to exceed US$300 billion since builders entered the overseas construction markets 43 years ago. The Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs expects Korea’s construction orders from overseas to record US$40 billion in 2009, considering risk factors such as global recession as well as opportunities including financial rescue programs from around the world.
Economic Bulletin
49
Statistical Appendices Tables & Figures 1. National accounts 2. Production, shipment and inventory 3. Production capacity and operation ratio 4. Consumer goods sales index 5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment, and estimated facility investment index 7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received 8. Composite indexes of business cycle indicators and BSI 9. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment and earnings 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates
Economic Bulletin
51
1. National accounts (year-on-year change, %, 2000 constant prices) Real GDP Period
Gross fixed capital formation
Final consumption expenditure
Agri., fores. & fisheries
Manufacturing
1.2
17.0
7.1
Construction
Facilities
12.2
-0.8
33.6 -9.0
2000
8.5
2001
3.8
1.1
2.2
4.9
-0.2
6.0
2002
7.0
-3.5
7.6
7.6
6.6
5.3
7.5
2003
3.1
-5.3
5.5
-0.3
4.0
7.9
-1.2
2004
4.7
9.2
11.1
0.4
2.1
1.1
3.8
2005
4.2
0.7
7.1
3.9
2.4
-0.2
5.7
2006
5.0
-1.5
8.5
4.8
3.6
-0.1
7.8
2007P
5.0
1.1
6.5
4.7
4.0
1.2
7.6
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007P
2008P
I
6.5
6.7
5.2
9.4
7.7
11.0
3.3
II
7.0
-2.7
6.2
8.5
7.3
6.0
8.0
III
6.8
-3.2
7.4
7.3
2.4
-2.4
9.1
IV
7.5
-5.5
11.4
5.3
9.1
8.4
9.6
I
3.8
-3.3
5.8
1.2
4.7
7.7
2.3
II
2.2
0.5
3.3
-0.6
4.2
7.9
-0.4
III
2.3
-7.8
4.2
-1.0
2.7
7.7
-4.6
IV
4.1
-6.9
8.6
-0.9
4.3
8.3
-2.0
I
5.4
10.1
11.9
-0.4
2.4
4.9
-0.1
II
5.7
4.2
13.6
0.7
4.7
3.8
6.4
III
4.7
4.3
11.7
0.1
2.9
1.0
6.8
IV
3.3
13.3
7.7
1.3
-1.1
-3.3
2.4 3.8
I
2.9
-0.1
5.4
2.0
0.5
-3.3
II
3.4
3.1
5.1
3.9
2.1
1.1
3.1
III
4.8
1.9
7.5
4.8
2.2
-0.1
5.0
IV
5.5
-0.5
10.1
4.9
4.3
0.4
10.8
I
6.3
2.8
10.1
5.4
4.2
1.1
7.1
II
5.2
-2.2
9.6
4.6
0.2
-5.3
7.5
III
5.0
-4.1
9.0
4.7
5.1
0.2
11.4
IV
4.2
-0.9
5.6
4.6
4.9
3.6
5.4
I
4.0
5.8
3.8
4.5
7.2
3.7
10.9
II
4.9
1.1
6.1
4.9
5.5
1.6
11.0
III
5.1
3.5
6.3
4.7
1.3
-0.1
2.3
IV
5.7
-0.7
9.5
4.8
2.9
0.4
6.5
I
5.8
2.0
9.3
3.5
0.5
-1.1
1.4
II
4.8
4.4
8.5
2.7
0.1
-1.2
0.7
III
3.8
1.4
6.3
1.7
1.4
-1.3
4.7
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
52
January 2009
Growth rate by economic activity
Growth rate by expenditure on GDP
Economic Bulletin
53
2. Production, shipment and inventory See graphs 6-1, 6-3, 7-1, 7-2 & 7-3 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
Production index
2006 2007
Y-o-Y change (%)
Shipment index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Inventory index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Service production index
Y-o-Y change (%)
108.4 115.8
8.4 6.8
107.6 115.2
7.6 7.1
110.8 117.2
9.3 5.7
105.5 112.3
5.5 6.4
2006
I II III IV
105.3 108.1 106.4 113.8
10.5 9.0 9.9 4.8
104.2 107.6 106.0 112.8
8.8 8.1 9.4 4.5
108.6 110.0 109.5 111.0
9.3 11.7 11.1 9.3
101.5 105.0 105.2 110.4
6.4 6.0 4.7 5.1
2007
I II III IV
109.5 114.8 112.7 126.1
4.0 6.2 5.9 10.8
109.5 115.0 111.7 124.5
5.1 6.9 5.4 10.4
114.0 114.3 112.4 117.3
5.0 3.9 2.6 5.7
107.0 111.4 112.8 117.9
5.4 6.1 7.2 6.8
2008
I II III
121.1 124.7 119.0
10.6 8.9 5.6
119.2 122.3 117.6
8.9 6.3 5.3
124.3 133.2 132.2
9.0 16.5 17.6
113.8 116.5 116.0
6.4 4.6 2.8
2006
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
103.8 100.4 111.8 107.0 109.5 107.9 99.8 104.3 115.0 110.8 118.5 112.0
5.6 18.7 8.6 7.8 9.8 9.3 1.5 10.0 17.9 4.8 7.0 2.1
101.8 99.7 111.1 106.6 108.8 107.5 98.5 104.8 114.6 109.3 117.0 112.0
4.2 15.7 7.3 6.8 9.9 7.9 1.0 9.5 17.5 4.1 6.9 2.6
107.0 106.6 108.6 107.5 110.1 110.0 112.5 109.6 109.5 109.6 110.2 111.0
4.6 6.8 9.3 7.0 7.6 11.7 11.6 11.8 11.1 11.2 10.6 9.3
101.8 96.8 106.0 104.3 106.3 104.3 102.4 105.0 108.3 106.0 108.7 116.4
7.0 6.4 6.0 6.5 6.4 4.7 2.3 5.1 6.7 3.9 5.7 5.6
2007
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
112.7 100.2 115.5 113.6 115.7 115.0 113.3 113.5 111.4 128.4 127.5 122.5
8.6 -0.2 3.3 6.2 5.7 6.6 13.5 8.8 -3.1 15.9 7.6 9.4
110.2 101.6 116.7 114.4 115.9 114.8 112.4 112.3 110.4 126.1 125.9 121.6
8.3 1.9 5.0 7.3 6.6 6.8 14.1 7.2 -3.7 15.4 7.6 8.6
118.5 115.5 114.0 111.8 114.1 114.3 115.3 115.3 112.4 114.7 114.9 117.3
10.7 8.3 5.0 4.0 3.6 3.9 2.5 5.2 2.6 4.7 4.3 5.7
106.1 103.2 111.7 109.6 112.2 112.3 112.2 113.1 113.0 115.1 115.6 123.1
4.2 6.6 5.4 5.1 5.6 7.7 9.6 7.7 4.3 8.6 6.3 5.8
2008
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10P 11P
125.3 110.5 127.4 125.7 125.7 122.6 123.2 115.6 118.2 125.4 109.5
11.2 10.3 10.3 10.7 8.6 6.6 8.7 1.9 6.1 -2.3 -14.1
121.2 109.4 126.9 124.1 123.1 119.8 121.7 114.3 116.9 123.3 109.0
10.0 7.7 8.7 8.5 6.2 4.4 8.3 1.8 5.9 -2.2 -14.1
124.0 124.6 124.3 125.2 129.1 133.2 132.2 132.0 132.2 134.9 133.2
4.6 7.9 9.0 12.0 13.1 16.5 14.7 14.5 17.6 17.6 15.9
114.0 109.3 118.1 116.2 117.6 115.6 116.6 114.7 116.7 116.7 113.7
7.4 5.9 5.7 6.0 4.8 2.9 3.9 1.4 3.3 1.4 -1.6
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
54
January 2009
3. Production capacity and operation ratio See graph 6-2
Period
2006 2007
Y-o-Y change (%)
Operation ratio index (2005=100)
Y-o-Y change (%)
Average operation ratio (%)
104.1 109.5
4.1 5.2
100.3 100.5
0.3 0.2
80.0 80.3
Production capacity index (2005=100)
2006
I II III IV
102.9 103.6 104.0 105.8
4.8 4.2 3.7 3.6
99.3 101.9 97.9 102.0
2.4 0.9 1.3 -3.2
81.0 79.6 79.1 80.3
2007
I II III IV
107.3 108.2 110.0 112.5
4.3 4.4 5.8 6.3
97.3 102.8 96.3 105.6
-2.0 0.9 -1.6 3.5
79.4 80.7 80.0 81.0
2008
I II III
113.6 114.9 115.4
5.9 6.2 4.9
99.0 102.7 95.7
1.7 -0.1 -0.6
81.1 81.0 78.5
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
102.7 102.8 103.3 103.3 103.8 103.8 103.7 103.9 104.4 105.4 105.8 106.1
4.9 4.8 4.9 4.3 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5
97.3 95.0 105.6 100.8 103.0 101.8 91.6 95.3 106.9 99.8 107.3 98.8
-3.4 11.5 0.4 -0.8 2.1 1.3 -7.5 1.2 10.8 -4.5 -0.6 -4.6
82.1 80.4 80.6 79.4 79.1 80.2 75.0 80.1 82.1 81.4 80.7 78.8
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.1 107.3 107.6 107.7 108.1 108.7 109.4 110.0 110.6 112.2 112.4 112.8
4.3 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.7 5.5 5.9 5.9 6.5 6.2 6.3
98.8 88.4 103.7 101.6 104.0 102.7 98.4 96.6 93.8 109.4 107.4 99.9
2.6 -6.9 -1.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 7.4 1.4 -12.3 9.6 0.1 1.1
79.1 79.7 79.3 80.1 81.0 80.9 80.5 81.0 78.6 81.6 80.6 80.9
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10P 11P
113.5 113.4 113.9 114.3 115.0 115.3 115.3 115.3 115.6 115.7 115.7
6.0 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.4 6.1 5.4 4.8 4.5 3.1 2.9
103.0 89.3 104.6 104.1 103.0 100.9 100.2 92.5 94.5 103.7 89.4
3.2 1.0 0.9 2.5 -1.0 -1.8 1.8 -4.2 0.7 -5.2 -16.8
81.8 80.3 81.1 82.2 80.3 80.5 79.7 78.5 77.3 77.0 68.0
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
Economic Bulletin
55
4. Consumer goods sales index See graphs 2-2, 2-3, 2-4 & 2-5 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
Consumer goods sales index
2006 2007
Y-o-Y change (%)
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Semi-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
104.1 109.6
4.1 5.3
111.2 123.4
11.2 11.0
103.0 106.0
3.0 2.9
101.7 105.5
1.7 3.7
2006
I II III IV
100.9 104.2 100.3 110.8
4.7 5.6 3.1 3.0
102.0 110.2 113.2 119.4
13.8 11.8 11.7 8.1
96.9 105.1 90.7 119.2
3.7 3.4 2.7 2.2
102.2 101.4 99.1 103.9
1.8 3.9 -0.2 1.2
2007
I II III IV
106.7 108.6 107.4 115.8
5.7 4.2 7.1 4.5
118.0 123.6 124.6 127.6
15.7 12.2 10.1 6.9
100.4 107.4 93.6 122.7
3.6 2.2 3.2 2.9
104.6 103.1 106.1 108.1
2.3 1.7 7.1 4.0
2008
I Il III
110.9 111.3 108.6
3.9 2.5 1.1
127.7 133.0 124.4
8.2 7.6 -0.2
105.8 105.7 95.1
5.4 -1.6 1.6
106.2 104.8 107.7
1.5 1.6 1.5
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
105.1 93.6 104.1 102.8 106.0 103.9 96.8 98.4 105.8 106.4 109.7 116.4
9.5 0.5 3.9 5.0 6.1 5.7 -0.6 4.7 5.3 4.2 3.6 1.5
97.1 99.1 110.0 105.7 110.1 114.7 107.3 112.9 119.4 110.8 122.3 125.2
9.0 20.0 13.3 9.9 11.9 13.3 -2.3 13.0 26.6 8.8 10.6 5.1
98.2 90.7 102.0 107.8 110.0 97.6 91.3 79.5 101.3 111.3 119.2 127.2
4.4 3.0 4.2 3.8 4.1 2.4 1.9 3.0 3.2 -1.5 4.7 3.2
111.2 92.6 102.7 99.6 102.7 102.0 94.8 100.4 102.2 102.7 100.7 108.4
11.8 -6.8 0.3 3.5 4.6 3.8 -0.7 1.9 -1.7 5.0 0.0 -1.0
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
106.2 103.5 110.3 106.9 111.5 107.5 105.4 104.1 112.6 113.4 114.5 119.4
1.0 10.6 6.0 4.0 5.2 3.5 8.9 5.8 6.4 6.6 4.4 2.6
117.3 109.7 126.8 119.5 125.7 125.7 128.9 125.4 119.4 121.6 129.3 131.9
20.8 10.7 15.3 13.1 14.2 9.6 20.1 11.1 0.0 9.7 5.7 5.4
98.9 95.1 107.3 108.7 112.5 101.0 93.8 81.4 105.5 117.3 122.5 128.3
0.7 4.9 5.2 0.8 2.3 3.5 2.7 2.4 4.1 5.4 2.8 0.9
104.7 104.4 104.8 101.0 105.4 102.8 100.7 104.8 112.8 108.4 105.3 110.7
-5.8 12.7 2.0 1.4 2.6 0.8 6.2 4.4 10.4 5.6 4.6 2.1
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10P 11P
111.1 106.5 115.1 112.7 114.8 106.4 109.5 105.6 110.6 109.2 107.8
4.6 2.9 4.4 5.4 3.0 -1.0 3.9 1.4 -1.8 -3.7 -5.9
125.9 116.1 141.0 137.6 135.4 126.1 138.2 120.3 114.7 122.4 108.2
7.3 5.8 11.2 15.1 7.7 0.3 7.2 -4.1 -3.9 0.7 -16.3
107.8 100.9 108.6 107.4 109.5 100.1 97.5 88.8 99.0 111.5 117.8
9.0 6.1 1.2 -1.2 -2.7 -0.9 3.9 9.1 -6.2 -4.9 -3.8
106.4 104.9 107.3 104.8 108.6 100.9 102.7 106.5 113.7 102.9 103.6
1.6 0.5 2.4 3.8 3.0 -1.8 2.0 1.7 0.8 -5.1 -1.6
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
56
January 2009
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index See graph 2-6
Period
2006 2007
Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2005=100) Y-o-Y change (%)
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Consumer sentiment index
106.6 112.7
6.6 5.7
110.4 124.7
10.4 13.0
105.0 107.9
5.0 2.8
-
2006
I II III IV
102.5 103.0 108.7 112.1
7.7 6.6 8.1 4.2
101.9 106.5 112.4 120.8
13.6 9.7 11.5 7.5
102.7 101.6 107.2 108.6
5.3 5.4 6.7 2.8
106 99 94 96
2007
I II III IV
110.6 110.8 111.2 118.3
7.9 7.6 2.3 5.5
119.3 122.6 123.2 133.8
17.1 15.1 9.6 10.8
107.2 106.0 106.3 112.2
4.4 4.3 -0.8 3.3
100 105 108 103
2008
I II III
117.3 116.7 114.6
6.1 5.3 3.1
133.9 138.3 125.4
12.2 12.8 1.8
110.6 108.0 110.2
3.2 1.9 3.7
102 85 -
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
103.4 96.6 107.4 101.4 103.9 103.6 99.7 106.5 119.8 108.8 114.4 113.1
3.7 12.5 7.3 5.6 7.9 6.3 1.5 5.4 16.8 2.8 6.8 3.0
96.8 99.0 110.0 100.3 106.0 113.3 100.6 109.7 126.8 116.7 123.5 122.2
7.8 21.8 12.2 6.9 10.0 12.0 -3.8 11.5 27.6 6.7 8.9 6.8
106.0 95.7 106.3 101.9 103.1 99.7 99.4 105.2 116.9 105.6 110.8 109.5
2.2 9.0 5.4 5.2 7.1 3.9 4.0 3.1 12.6 1.2 5.9 1.4
-
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
114.3 103.8 113.8 111.2 112.7 108.4 109.6 112.6 111.3 121.4 117.2 116.4
10.5 7.5 6.0 9.7 8.5 4.6 9.9 5.7 -7.1 11.6 2.4 2.9
117.3 112.9 127.6 119.5 125.5 122.7 124.5 124.5 120.7 137.0 132.8 131.5
21.2 14.0 16.0 19.1 18.4 8.3 23.8 13.5 -4.8 17.4 7.5 7.6
113.1 100.1 108.3 107.9 107.5 102.6 103.6 107.8 107.6 115.2 111.0 110.3
6.7 4.6 1.9 5.9 4.3 2.9 4.2 2.5 -8.0 9.1 0.2 0.7
-
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10P 11P 12
124.2 106.6 121.0 120.5 116.9 112.7 119.5 112.3 111.9 119.7 107.1 -
8.7 2.7 6.3 8.4 3.7 4.0 9.0 -0.3 0.5 -1.4 -8.6 -
132.8 123.5 145.3 145.5 138.7 130.6 138.3 120.4 117.4 129.6 111.7 -
13.2 9.4 13.9 21.8 10.5 6.4 11.1 -3.3 -2.7 -5.4 -15.9 -
120.8 99.8 111.2 110.5 108.1 105.5 112.0 109.0 109.7 115.7 105.3 -
6.8 -0.3 2.7 2.4 0.6 2.8 8.1 1.1 2.0 0.4 -5.1 -
84 96 96 88 84 81
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office & The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
57
6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment and estimated facility investment index See graph 3-2 Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant prices) Period
2007
Estimated facility investment index (2000=100)
Domestic machinery shipment excluding ship (2005=100)
Total
Public
Private
34,143
2,205
31,938
17,424
126.5
114.0
Manufacturing
2007
I II III IV
8,145 7,849 8,139 10,012
342 292 484 1,087
7,803 7,556 7,655 8,924
3,873 3,825 4,257 5,470
127.0 130.7 118.2 130.0
109.8 119.3 106.3 120.5
2008
I ll III
10,197 8,541 7,520
372 536 354
9,825 8,005 7,165
5,429 3,667 3,394
125.9 130.8 125.4
111.2 120.2 113.1
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2,639 2,812 2,694 2,473 2,598 2,778 2,613 2,425 3,101 3,735 3,234 3,043
89 150 103 94 91 107 170 128 186 89 217 781
2,550 2,661 2,591 2,378 2,506 2,671 2,442 2,297 2,916 3,646 3,017 2,262
1,294 1,390 1,189 1,220 1,204 1,401 1,239 1,115 1,902 2,481 1,846 1,144
121.6 120.3 139.1 137.2 130.0 125.1 120.1 122.4 112.1 121.8 129.2 139.0
103.9 102.2 123.3 114.0 122.5 121.4 111.0 104.9 102.9 112.9 120.0 128.6
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10P 11P
3,810 3,044 3,343 2,914 2,675 2,952 3,153 2,330 2,037 2,371 1,814
149 68 155 95 90 351 179 87 88 399 207
3,661 2,976 3,188 2,819 2,585 2,601 2,974 2,243 1,949 1,972 1,608
2,197 1,723 1,510 1,302 1,101 1,264 1,392 1,114 887 939 668
119.4 118.0 140.3 134.6 127.3 130.5 132.0 124.2 120.1 112.4 106.0
105.7 102.6 125.2 119.3 121.8 119.4 119.3 107.3 112.7 110.7 107.0
21.1
-11.2
31.9
8.6
2.9
2007
Y-o-Y change (%) 24.2
2007
I II III IV
18.9 7.1 19.1 39.3
13.9 -47.7 -26.9 12.9
19.1 11.6 24.0 43.4
13.2 7.7 37.6 74.4
12.8 11.9 0.7 9.2
5.9 2.4 -1.7 4.8
2008
I ll III
25.2 8.8 -7.6
8.8 83.4 -26.8
25.9 5.9 -6.4
40.2 -4.1 -20.3
-0.9 0.1 6.1
1.3 0.8 6.4
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
29.2 20.0 9.3 3.3 15.6 3.3 35.3 5.1 19.5 42.5 46.7 28.8
5.8 53.6 -13.1 -0.3 -3.0 -71.1 117.5 -46.7 -45.9 -85.1 174.0 174.9
30.2 18.5 10.5 3.4 16.5 15.2 31.8 11.1 29.4 80.3 42.0 8.8
34.7 17.0 -6.6 -0.8 11.6 12.7 41.1 9.4 59.0 140.5 81.9 4.9
18.6 14.5 6.9 15.6 8.8 11.3 2.2 3.5 -3.7 7.0 10.4 10.1
8.9 3.7 5.3 3.3 0.1 3.9 9.5 -2.0 -11.1 8.2 3.4 3.2
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10P 11P
44.4 8.3 24.1 17.9 3.0 6.3 20.7 -3.9 -34.3 -36.5 -43.9
67.8 -54.7 50.6 1.3 -1.5 228.1 5.3 -31.8 -52.7 348.0 -4.7
43.5 11.8 23.0 18.5 3.1 -2.6 21.8 -2.4 -33.2 -45.9 -46.7
69.8 23.9 27.0 6.8 -8.6 -9.8 12.3 -0.1 -53.3 -62.1 -63.8
-1.8 -1.9 0.9 -1.9 -2.1 4.4 9.9 1.5 7.1 -7.7 -18.0
1.7 0.4 1.5 4.6 -0.6 -1.6 7.5 2.3 9.5 -1.9 -10.8
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
58
January 2009
7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received See graphs 4-2 & 4-3
(current prices, billion won)
Period
2007
Type of order
Type of order
Private
Domestic construction orders received (total)
Public
Private
25,096
54,476
108,559
27,454
75,285
Value of construction completed (total)
Public
82,950
2007
I II III IV
17,306 20,878 20,183 24,582
4,940 6,345 6,103 7,708
11,783 13,723 13,280 15,690
20,678 26,839 21,768 39.274
5,683 5,025 4,462 12,285
14,893 19,649 15,740 25,002
2008
I ll III
18,314 22,238 22,429
5,279 6,570 6,506
12,128 14,377 14,755
19,868 25,193 16,795
6,820 5,961 4,607
12,661 18,499 10,626
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5,498 5,307 6,501 6,743 6,810 7,326 6,597 6,759 6,829 7,364 7,882 9,337
1,473 1,533 1,934 1,922 2,119 2,305 1,963 1,953 2,185 2,075 2,432 3,201
3,854 3,602 4,328 4,515 4,462 4,745 4,381 4,542 4,357 4,967 5,094 5,629
6,411 6,326 7,942 7,841 7,096 11,902 6,060 6,586 9,122 10,691 12,311 16,272
1,562 1,830 2,291 1,789 1,621 1,615 1,491 1,354 1,616 3,286 3,694 5,304
4,822 4,488 5,584 5,733 4,891 9,025 3,685 4,874 7,181 7,094 7,792 10,117
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10P 11P
6,090 5,480 6,745 7,033 7,336 7,869 7,269 7,312 7,838 7,741 7,721
1,721 1,519 2,040 1,967 2,224 2,379 2,031 2,139 2,336 2,498 2,540
5,570 5,931 8,367 7,646 8,432 9,115 5,274 6,084 5,436 8,132 7,954
1,619 1,894 3,306 1,715 2,474 1,772 1,360 1,505 1,742 2,443 3,072
3,904 3,820 4,937 5,745 5,780 6,973 3,386 4,363 2,877 4,780 4,567
6.6
8.4
19.3
34.2
13.1
2007
4,074 3,692 4,362 4,627 4,732 5,018 4,825 4,822 5,109 4,819 4,722 Y-o-Y change (%) 4.5
2007
I II III IV
7.9 6.0 4.4 8.0
21.1 12.2 3.0 2.8
3.1 2.3 3.6 8.4
26.3 26.3 -5.6 29.5
49.3 21.2 7.3 47.2
21.8 17.0 -12.9 28.6
2008
I ll III
5.8 6.5 11.1
6.9 3.5 6.6
2.9 4.8 11.1
-3.9 -6.1 -22.8
20.0 18.6 3.3
-15.0 -5.9 -32.5
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
12.9 9.1 3.0 7.0 6.2 4.9 13.2 8.6 -6.3 8.8 5.9 9.2
18.1 27.0 19.0 8.4 16.4 11.9 14.9 5.0 -7.3 -4.6 8.8 3.7
11.3 3.1 -3.3 4.0 1.7 1.2 10.6 8.2 -6.5 13.0 2.8 9.8
9.7 40.1 32.0 48.9 5.2 28.8 -14.9 13.4 -9.8 103.8 36.3 1.4
73.4 20.5 65.0 45.5 15.6 6.6 51.1 72.5 -32.3 104.2 32.1 34.6
0.3 55.1 23.4 43.6 -6.8 19.4 -38.8 6.0 -3.7 102.5 27.7 2.8
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10P 11P
10.8 3.3 3.8 4.3 7.7 7.4 10.2 8.2 14.8 5.1 -2.0
16.8 -1.0 5.5 2.4 5.0 3.2 3.5 9.5 6.9 20.4 4.4
5.7 2.5 0.8 2.5 6.1 5.7 10.1 6.2 17.2 -3.0 -7.3
-13.1 -6.2 5.3 -2.5 18.8 -23.4 -13.0 -7.6 -40.4 -23.9 -35.4
3.6 3.5 44.3 -4.1 52.6 9.7 -8.8 11.2 7.8 -25.6 -16.6
-19.0 -14.9 -11.6 0.2 18.2 -22.7 -8.1 -10.5 -59.9 -32.6 -41.4
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
Economic Bulletin
59
8. Composite indexes of business cycle indicators and BSI See graphs 13-1, 13-2 & 13-3
Y-o-Y change (%)
Coincident index (2005=100)
Cycle of coincident index (2005=100)
BSI (actual)
BSI (outlook)
104.1
7.9
104.0
100.3
95.4
102.6
2
104.1
7.1
104.2
100.0
90.5
102.4
3
104.1
5.8
104.7
100.1
111.5
118.9
4
104.2
5.4
104.9
99.9
99.8
112.7
5
104.4
5.1
105.3
99.9
94.1
110.7
6
104.7
5.3
105.6
99.7
94.2
98.6
7
104.8
4.6
105.1
98.8
79.1
94.2
8
105.2
4.3
105.6
98.9
85.9
93.4
Period
Leading index (2005=100)
2006 1
9
106.0
4.4
106.5
99.3
99.4
107.7
10
106.9
5.0
108.3
100.6
99.4
103.5
11
107.6
5.0
109.1
100.9
103.7
104.3
12
108.0
4.4
109.3
100.6
100.4
101.4
2007 1
108.5
4.2
109.4
100.3
85.6
96.5
2
109.3
5.0
109.8
100.2
87.5
93.4
3
109.7
5.4
110.2
100.2
109.4
112.3
4
110.5
6.0
110.8
100.3
105.8
107.7
5
110.8
6.1
111.4
100.3
104.1
110.9
6
111.7
6.7
112.2
100.6
100.2
105.6
7
112.5
7.3
113.0
100.9
95.8
99.3
8
113.3
7.7
113.6
101.1
94.4
102.5
9
114.0
7.5
113.7
100.7
101.5
111.8
10
114.8
7.4
114.3
100.8
108.3
116.3
11
115.5
7.3
114.8
100.8
106.0
112.4
12
115.8
7.2
115.8
101.2
98.9
103.4
2008 1
115.1
6.1
116.6
101.5
95.2
103.0
2
114.3
4.6
116.7
101.2
95.6
94.8
3
113.8
3.7
116.9
100.9
101.1
102.1
4
114.0
3.2
116.9
100.5
101.7
98.1
5
114.1
3.0
117.3
100.4
98.1
104.7
6
113.6
1.7
117.3
99.9
79.1
95.3
7
112.8
0.3
117.5
99.7
80.8
83.2
8
112.6
-0.6
117.6
99.4
83.1
80.8
9
112.6
-1.2
117.8
99.2
76.8
98.3
10P
112.1
-2.4
117.4
98.4
64.6
84.9
11P
110.9
-4.0
115.6
96.4
53.7
63.7
12
-
-
-
-
52.4
55.0
2009 1
-
-
-
-
-
52.0
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office & The Federation of Korean Industries
60
January 2009
9. Balance of payments (I) See graphs 5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 10-1 & 10-2 (million US$)
Period
2005 2006 2007P
Current balance
Goods trade balance
Exports
14,980.9 5,385.2 5,954.3
32,683.1 27,905.1 29,409.4
Imports
Services trade balance
Income trade balance
Current transfers
284,418.7 325,464.8 371,489.1
261,238.3 309,382.6 356,845.7
-13,658.2 -18,960.7 -20,574.9
-1,562.5 533.7 768.5
-2,481.5 -4,092.9 -3,648.7
2005
I II III IV
5,263.5 2,352.1 2,198.2 5,167.1
8,750.5 8,365.8 7,234.8 8,332.0
66,807.6 69,702.8 71,097.7 76,810.7
60,626.8 63,694.9 66,228.3 70,688.3
-3,114.4 -3,368.7 -4,254.6 -2,920.5
166.4 -1,948.8 -97.3 317.2
-539.0 -696.2 -684.7 -561.6
2006
I II III IV
-1,977.6 235.0 1,016.9 6,110.9
4,682.7 7,109.8 6,230.9 9,881.7
73,884.9 81,473.4 82,712.8 87,393.7
72,542.1 76,719.7 80,215.8 79,905.1
-5,084.8 -4,200.8 -5,340.1 -4,335.0
-519.6 -1,356.9 1,148.3 1,261.9
-1,055.9 -1,317.1 -1,022.2 -697.7
2007P
I II III IV
-1,662.2 34.4 4,430.2 3,151.9
6,037.9 6,970.2 9,676.2 6,725.1
84,703.5 92,984.5 90,529.1 103,272.0
82,261.7 87,961.9 86,058.8 100,563.3
-6,180.1 -4,395.3 -5,884.1 -4,115.4
-689.6 -1,543.1 1,663.8 1,337.4
-830.4 -997.4 -1,025.7 -795.2
2008P
I II III
-5,212.6 -134.4 -8,579.9
-1,219.8 5,722.7 -3,475.5
99,445.3 114,494.9 115,000.2
106,026.0 114,755.2 123,046.1
-5,067.2 -4,272.7 -5,691.7
1,688.1 -645.6 1,356.7
-613.7 -938.8 -769.4
2006
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-273.5 -1,217.8 -486.3 -1,978.8 782.8 1,431.0 -226.2 -734.2 1,977.3 1,776.0 4,270.7 64.2
1,143.9 681.3 2,857.5 1,639.0 2,240.9 3,229.9 1,553.5 1,330.3 3,347.1 2,627.4 5,550.9 1,703.4
23,257.9 23,787.0 26,840.1 25,590.1 27,934.5 27,948.8 25,774.4 27,287.2 29,651.2 28,015.9 30,602.3 28,775.4
23,089.3 23,507.8 25,945.0 24,485.8 26,210.4 26,023.5 25,549.7 27,029.5 27,636.6 25,621.8 26,765.1 27,518.2
-1,797.8 -1,849.4 -1,437.6 -1,537.7 -1,340.5 -1,322.6 -1,716.2 -2,141.4 -1,482.5 -1,139.2 -1,457.0 -1,738.8
613.2 326.9 -1,459.7 -1,700.5 301.9 41.7 237.5 296.4 614.4 500.1 448.2 313.6
-232.8 -376.6 -446.5 -379.6 -419.5 -518.0 -301.0 -219.5 -501.7 -212.3 -271.4 -214.0
2007P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-428.1 402.1 -1,636.2 -2,078.1 839.1 1,273.4 1,552.3 573.7 2,304.2 2,461.1 1,504.6 -813.8
1,292.1 2,387.3 2,358.5 1,519.5 2,239.0 3,211.7 3,044.1 2,906.4 3,725.7 3,638.0 2,643.7 443.4
28,092.6 26,225.1 30,385.8 29,944.4 31,039.9 32,000.1 30,207.4 30,998.1 29,323.5 34,433.8 35,807.9 33,030.3
27,560.1 25,406.2 29,295.5 29,596.9 29,856.9 28,508.1 29,223.2 29,642.1 27,193.6 32,741.2 33,926.1 33,895.9
-1,943.4 -2,551.1 -1,685.6 -1,396.1 -1,483.2 -1,516.0 -1,688.2 -2,445.2 -1,750.7 -1,416.5 -1,458.9 -1,240.0
547.1 850.7 -2,087.4 -2,001.5 461.6 -3.2 533.5 444.3 686.0 502.9 422.8 411.7
-323.9 -284.8 -221.7 -200.0 -378.3 -419.1 -337.1 -331.8 -356.8 -263.3 -103.0 -428.9
2008P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
-2,751.3 -2,350.7 -110.6 -1,581.3 -377.5 1,824.4 -2,534.0 -4,696.3 -1,349.6 4,753.0 2,056.6
-1,095.2 -599.1 474.5 1,632.3 612.5 3,477.9 217.6 -2,803.4 -889.7 2,625.7 994.6
32,275.9 31,179.6 35,989.8 37,845.2 39,393.3 37,256.2 40,949.7 36,619.3 37,434.1 37,171.7 29,014.9
36,309.8 32,620.8 37,101.6 38,256.3 38,679.8 37,815.1 42,990.9 40,408.8 39,608.4 36,121.4 28,877.1
-2,138.1 -2,249.6 -679.5 -979.8 -1,167.4 -2,126.3 -2,456.0 -2,000.0 -1,235.7 -54.8 -130.0
768.0 700.7 219.4 -1,932.0 459.2 827.2 239.6 324.8 792.3 1,411.2 720.2
-286.0 -202.7 -125.0 -302.6 -281.8 -354.4 -535.2 -217.7 -16.5 770.9 471.8
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea & Korea Customs Service
Economic Bulletin
61
10. Balance of payments (II) See graph 10-3 (million US$)
Period
Capital & financial account
Direct investment
2005 2006 2007P
4,756.5 17,972.0 6,232.3
Changes in reserve assets
Errors and omissions
Portfolio investment
Other investment
Capital transfers & acquisition of non-financial assets
2,010.4 -4,540.4 -13,696.7
-1,728.2 -22,745.6 -19,093.3
6,814.7 48,384.1 41,411.9
-2,340.4 -3,126.1 -2,389.6
-19,805.8 -22,112.9 -15,128.2
68.4 -1,244.3 2,941.6
2005
I II III IV
4,141.5 2,257.6 -504.3 -1,138.3
-194.0 1,249.7 48.8 905.9
-1,278.2 -2,575.3 -147.5 2,272.8
6,125.5 4,247.5 256.8 -3,815.1
-511.8 -664.3 -662.4 -501.9
-9,513.7 -2,817.2 -2,300.1 -5,174.8
108.7 -1,792.5 606.2 1,146.0
2006
I II III IV
6,824.8 3,319.1 3,754.1 4,074.0
-1,062.3 -30.9 -3,856.2 409.0
1,847.1 -14,079.6 -7,703.3 -2,809.8
6,787.0 18,255.2 15,978.3 7,363.6
-747.0 -825.6 -664.7 -888.8
-5,679.3 -4,315.9 -3,688.8 -8,428.9
832.1 761.8 -1,082.2 -1,756.0
2007P I II III IV
5,313.6 6,442.1 -3,326.5 -2,196.9
-959.8 -2,867.7 -2,445.6 -7,423.6
-10,492.9 -27.2 -9,169.6 596.4
17,580.4 10,023.0 8,858.8 4,949.7
-814.1 -686.0 -570.1 -319.4
-3,998.3 -6,250.1 -2,495.6 -2,384.2
346.9 -226.4 1,391.9 1,429.2
2008P I ll III
395.9 -4,673.7 -4,850.5
-4,790.6 -2,913.5 -2,283.5
-11,065.6 5,191.4 -15,863.3
16,489.7 -6,718.6 13,515.7
-237.6 -233.0 -219.4
3,850.0 5,717.7 12,883.1
966.7 -909.6 547.3
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
4,082.2 1,594.0 1,148.6 4,639.6 391.0 -1,711.5 1,767.1 1,410.5 576.5 -940.2 -524.0 5,538.2
-504.9 137.3 -694.7 328.5 -105.2 -254.2 -174.9 -671.6 -3,009.7 -131.6 -38.9 579.5
692.7 2,404.0 -1,249.6 -3,099.7 -7,937.6 -3,042.3 -3,899.6 -4,470.4 666.7 -678.3 -827.2 -1,304.3
4,124.2 -695.4 3,358.2 7,714.2 8,680.4 1,860.6 6,123.2 6,719.8 3,135.3 137.1 671.9 6,554.6
-229.8 -251.9 -265.3 -303.4 -246.6 -275.6 -281.6 -167.3 -215.8 -267.4 -329.8 -291.6
-5,432.6 140.7 -387.4 -3,354.8 -495.6 -465.5 -686.0 -959.7 -2,043.1 -933.1 -2,677.2 -4,818.6
1,623.9 -516.9 -274.9 694.0 -678.2 746.0 -854.9 283.4 -510.7 97.3 -1,069.5 -783.8
2007P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2,078.9 -404.0 3,638.7 4,203.3 3,597.1 -1,358.3 537.1 -304.8 -3,558.8 -1,912.9 -1,498.6 1,214.6
-208.9 -687.6 -63.3 -388.2 -311.3 -2,168.2 -3.0 -1,372.5 -1,070.1 -4,439.9 -1,726.1 -1,257.6
-1,411.2 -1,940.7 -7,141.0 3,808.0 529.6 -4,364.8 -6,925.0 -5,973.7 3,729.1 154.3 -2,901.5 3,343.6
4,054.0 2,427.6 11,098.8 1,029.3 3,613.2 5,380.5 7,692.6 7,248.3 -6,082.1 2,538.1 3,202.6 -791.0
-355.0 -203.3 -255.8 -245.8 -234.4 -205.8 -227.5 -206.9 -135.7 -165.4 -73.6 -80.4
-2,350.7 -1,134.7 -512.9 -1,878.4 -4,492.9 121.2 -2,421.6 -937.5 863.5 -847.5 -493.8 -1,042.9
699.9 1,136.6 -1,489.6 -246.8 56.7 -36.3 332.2 668.6 391.1 299.3 487.8 642.1
2008P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
409.2 -401.3 388.0 -376.9 -732.1 -3,564.7 -5,774.6 5,312.4 -4,388.3 -24,834.8 -12,140.9
-2,488.7 303.5 -2,605.4 -1,911.9 -262.6 -739.0 -1,214.3 -742.7 -326.5 -198.7 -213.9
-4,011.1 -5,426.4 -1,628.1 3,571.7 7,343.4 -5,723.7 -9,563.1 -565.4 -5,734.8 1,260.4 -4,698.3
7,013.3 4,819.9 4,656.5 1,958.9 -8,276.5 2,561.3 5,180.4 6,743.0 1,605.3 -26,247.2 -7,439.3
-104.3 -98.3 -35.0 -87.8 -54.7 -90.5 -177.6 -109.5 67.7 350.7 210.6
1,436.1 1,703.1 710.8 2,411.3 2,264.6 1,041.8 9,171.4 -1,215.2 4,926.9 19,988.1 10,904.2
906.0 1,048.9 -988.2 -453.1 -1,155.0 698.5 -862.8 599.1 811.0 93.7 -819.9
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
62
January 2009
11. Prices See graphs 11-1, 11-2 & 11-3 (2005 = 100) Producer prices (2000=100)
Consumer prices
Export & import prices
Period All Items
Commodity
Service
Core
All items
Commodity
Export
Import
2006 2007
102.2 104.8
101.5 103.5
102.7 105.7
101.8 104.2
100.9 102.3
100.5 101.5
91.8 89.8
100.9 105.5
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
102.8 103.5 104.1 104.5 104.6 104.6 105.0 105.1 105.7 105.9 105.9 106.3
101.4 102.3 102.3 102.8 102.8 102.7 103.3 103.5 104.7 105.1 104.9 105.6
103.8 104.2 105.2 105.5 105.7 105.8 106.0 106.1 106.3 106.4 106.6 106.7
102.7 103.1 103.8 104.1 104.1 104.2 104.4 104.5 104.6 104.7 104.8 105.0
100.5 100.6 101.0 101.7 102.3 102.5 102.7 102.6 103.1 103.3 103.7 104.1
99.6 99.6 100.2 100.9 101.6 101.7 101.7 101.7 102.3 102.4 103.1 103.7
88.6 88.1 88.9 89.2 89.3 89.5 89.6 90.6 90.8 89.8 91.5 92.0
97.7 99.5 102.7 104.0 104.5 104.2 104.1 105.1 107.6 108.6 113.0 114.9
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
106.8 107.2 108.2 108.8 109.7 110.4 111.2 111.0 111.1 111.0 110.7 110.7
106.3 106.6 107.1 108.2 110.0 111.5 112.9 112.2 112.1 111.7 110.3 110.2
107.1 107.5 108.9 109.2 109.5 109.7 110.1 110.3 110.4 110.6 110.9 111.0
105.6 106.0 107.2 107.7 108.2 108.7 109.2 109.4 109.9 110.1 110.4 110.9
104.7 105.7 107.1 109.4 111.5 113.3 115.5 115.2 114.8 114.4 111.8 109.9
104.4 105.7 107.5 110.3 113.1 115.5 118.1 117.6 117.0 116.7 113.3 110.9
93.7 94.8 100.8 103.3 110.7 112.0 112.1 110.5 115.6 124.5 120.4 115.0
118.4 121.6 131.5 136.5 151.1 155.2 156.8 149.9 153.4 159.7 149.1 140.6
Y-o-Y change (%) 2006 2007
2.2 2.5
1.5 2.0
2.7 2.9
1.8 2.4
0.9 1.4
0.5 1.0
-8.2 -2.1
0.9 4.5
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1.7 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.3 3.0 3.5 3.6
0.3 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.8 0.5 1.6 3.2 4.2 4.3
2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.0
2.1 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4
0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.6 0.9 1.0 2.2 3.1 3.6
-0.5 -0.6 0.2 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.4 1.8 3.3 4.0
-5.7 -4.2 -3.3 -1.8 -1.4 -2.8 -2.6 -3.4 -2.6 -2.5 1.8 3.4
-1.4 1.6 4.4 4.2 2.8 1.6 0.1 -0.7 5.2 7.5 13.7 15.6
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.9 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.9 5.5 5.9 5.6 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.1
4.8 4.2 4.7 5.3 7.0 8.6 9.3 8.4 7.1 6.3 5.1 4.4
3.2 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.0
2.8 2.8 3.3 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.6
4.2 5.1 6.1 7.6 9.0 10.5 12.5 12.3 11.3 10.7 7.8 5.6
4.8 6.1 7.3 9.3 11.3 13.6 16.1 15.6 14.4 14.0 9.9 6.9
5.8 7.6 13.4 15.7 24.0 25.2 25.1 21.9 27.4 38.6 31.5 25.0
21.2 22.2 28.0 31.3 44.6 49.0 50.6 42.6 42.6 47.1 32.0 22.4
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
63
12. Employment See graphs 8-1, 8-2 & 8-3 Wage workers (thous.)
Economically active persons (thous.) Period
Employed persons (thous.)
Unemployment (%) Regular
Temporary
Daily
All industry Manufacturing S.O.C&service 2006 2007
23,978 24,216
23,151 23,433
4,167 4,119
17,181 17,569
3.5 3.2
15,551 15,970
8,204 8,620
5,143 5,172
2,204 2,178
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
23,580 23,536 23,960 24,337 24,537 24,593 24,545 24,214 24,341 24,482 24,471 23,993
22,729 22,674 23,121 23,520 23,758 23,816 23,750 23,458 23,622 23,750 23,739 23,257
4,156 4,139 4,119 4,124 4,114 4,140 4,126 4,052 4,101 4,142 4,092 4,127
17,221 17,114 17,371 17,573 17,677 17,715 17,740 17,524 17,639 17,689 17,856 17,712
3.6 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1
15,656 15,539 15,731 15,964 16,095 16,124 16,127 15,882 16,056 16,147 16,218 16,104
8,382 8,399 8,432 8,451 8,532 8,617 8,674 8,763 8,823 8,825 8,793 8,750
5,176 5,125 5,188 5,236 5,259 5,217 5,254 5,044 5,100 5,119 5,174 5,176
2,099 2,015 2,112 2,277 2,304 2,290 2,199 2,075 2,132 2,203 2,251 2,178
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
23,738 23,703 24,114 24,495 24,692 24,727 24,673 24,380 24,456 24,582 24,566 24,032
22,964 22,884 23,305 23,711 23,939 23,963 23,903 23,617 23,734 23,847 23,816 23,245
4,125 4,136 4,100 4,099 4,097 4,107 4,097 4,020 4,047 4,079 4,036 4,208
17,549 17,409 17,630 17,829 17,931 17,947 17,958 17,744 17,825 17,862 17,938 17,787
3.3 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.3
16,032 15,836 15,993 16,258 16,405 16,385 16,363 16,104 16,221 16,314 16,377 16,189
8,815 8,804 8,898 8,894 9,010 9,039 9,054 9,107 9,142 9,138 9,111 9,068
5,115 5,055 5,023 5,127 5,165 5,132 5,163 4,970 5,015 5,034 5,071 5,082
2,102 1,977 2,073 2,238 2,231 2,214 2,146 2,027 2,064 2,142 2,195 2,040
Y-o-Y change (%) 2006 2007
1.0 1.0
1.3 1.2
-1.6 -1.1
2.3 2.3
-5.4 -8.6
2.4 2.7
3.6 5.1
1.7 0.6
-0.4 -1.2
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1.0 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.9
1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2
-1.1 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.3 -1.0 -1.3 -1.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 0.6
1.9 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1
-2.7 -9.8 -10.3 -2.9 0.0 -5.9 -5.9 -8.8 -6.2 -9.1 -6.2 -6.1
3.1 2.9 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.6 3.5 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4
4.4 4.6 4.1 3.6 4.3 6.0 6.7 6.3 5.7 5.2 5.1 4.9
3.0 2.8 1.7 1.4 1.3 -0.5 -1.2 0.5 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -1.1
-1.6 -3.3 -2.5 -0.9 -2.1 -2.1 -3.3 -0.7 -0.5 0.8 0.7 1.6
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2
1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 -0.1
-0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.4 -0.8 -0.7 -0.8 -1.3 -1.5 -1.4 -2.4
1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.4
-8.3 -5.4 -2.9 -5.9 -6.2 -3.1 -3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 6.5
2.4 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.5
5.2 4.8 5.5 5.2 5.6 4.9 4.4 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.6
-1.2 -1.4 -3.2 -2.1 -1.8 -1.6 -1.7 -1.5 -1.7 -1.7 -2.0 -1.8
0.2 -1.9 -1.8 -1.7 -3.2 -3.3 -2.4 -2.3 -3.2 -2.8 -2.5 -6.3
Source: Korea National Statistical Office
64
January 2009
13. Financial indicators See graphs 9-1 & 9-4 (period average) Yields (%)
Stock
Period Call rate (1 day)
CD (91 days)
Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)
Treasury bonds (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
KOSPI (end-period)
2005 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.7
3.5 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0
4.1 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.8 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.5
3.7 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.1
3.9 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.4 4.7 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.3
932.70 1,011.40 965.70 911.30 970.20 1,008.20 1,111.30 1,083.30 1,221.00 1,158.10 1,297.40 1,379.40
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.8
5.5 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.2
5.0 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.8
5.3 5.0 5.1 5.2 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.9
1,399.80 1,371.60 1,359.60 1,419.70 1,371.70 1,295.70 1,297.80 1,352.70 1,371.40 1,364.60 1,432.20 1,434.50
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.7
5.3 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.7
5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.9
5.0 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.9
1,360.20 1,417.30 1,452.60 1,542.24 1,700.91 1,743.60 1,933.27 1,873.24 1,946.48 2,064.95 1,906.00 1,897.10
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.2 4.9 4.0 3.3
5.8 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.8 5.8 6.0 5.6 4.7
6.6 6.3 6.1 5.9 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.5 8.0 8.6 8.4
5.4 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.1 5.0 4.0
5.5 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.2 5.2 4.3
1,624.68 1,711.62 1,703.99 1,825.47 1,852.02 1,674.92 1,594.67 1,474.24 1,448.06 1,113.06 1,076.07 1,124.47
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
65
14. Monetary indicators See graph 9-5 (period average)
Period
(billion won)
Reserve money
M1
M2
Lf
2006 2007
41,664.0 48,543.7
330,134.1 312,832.3
1,076,682.4 1,197,094.8
1,454,858.8 1,603,516.0
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
47,851.4 49,493.5 48,936.8 47,485.3 48,092.5 47,914.3 47,500.5 47,823.9 48,870.6 49,370.6 48,831.0 50,353.8
353,494.2 350,734.7 335,446.8 305,602.5 301,184.5 302,511.7 302,375.6 298,066.1 299,048.0 297,999.3 299,714.7 307,809.3
1,143,814.9 1,154,108.8 1,162,429.3 1,165,291.0 1,171,148.4 1,190,080.2 1,200,892.7 1,208,052.8 1,219,265.1 1,229,742.1 1,250,790.1 1,269,522.5
1,536,010.8 1,547,512.8 1,557,701.9 1,564,339.3 1,575,635.4 1,596,407.1 1,606,424.5 1,618,788.3 1,631,969.6 1,649,987.5 1,668,328.3 1,686,063.4
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
50,260.5 52,563.7 49,571.5 50,683.6 50,502.5 51,274.4 50,600.6 51,981.0 53,303.9 52,976.5 54,254.5
305,868.0 304,580.7 299,792.8 298,474.4 304,239.8 305,514.3 306,584.4 304,538.7 307,067.8 310,565.5 316,330.9
1,286,407.8 1,309,161.7 1,324,032.7 1,339,434.9 1,356,612.9 1,369,728.1 1,378,914.3 1,386,101.1 1,395,719.2 1,403,984.2 1,426,165.1
1,711,196.8 1,726,407.2 1,743,481.7 1,762,945.3 1,782,721.1 1,798,774.9 1,801,540.6 1,810,535.1 1,831,313.4 1,845,717.7 1,859,234.6
Y-o-Y change (%) 2006 2007
7.4 16.5
-0.8 -5.2
8.3 11.2
7.9 10.2
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
15.8 18.8 19.4 15.3 18.1 17.7 13.2 18.7 17.8 14.3 17.6 12.2
7.9 7.4 3.0 -5.7 -7.0 -7.5 -8.4 -8.6 -8.7 -10.7 -11.2 -12.5
11.3 11.5 11.5 11.1 10.9 10.9 10.9 11.4 11.0 10.8 11.3 11.5
9.8 9.9 10.2 10.1 10.1 10.4 10.0 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.6
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
5.0 6.2 1.3 6.7 5.0 7.0 6.5 8.7 9.1 7.3 11.1
-13.5 -13.2 -10.6 -2.3 1.0 1.0 1.4 2.2 2.7 4.2 5.5
12.5 13.4 13.9 14.9 15.8 15.1 14.8 14.7 14.5 14.2 14.0
11.4 11.6 11.9 12.7 13.1 12.7 12.1 11.8 12.2 11.9 11.4
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
66
January 2009
15. Exchange rates See graphs 9-2 & 9-3
/US$
/100
/Euro
Period End-period
Average
End-period
Average
End-period
Average
2006 2007
929.6 938.2
955.5 929.2
781.8 833.3
821.5 789.8
1,222.2 1,381.3
1,199.3 1,272.7
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
940.9 938.3 940.3 929.4 929.9 926.8 923.2 939.9 920.7 907.4 929.6 938.2
936.4 937.0 943.3 931.5 927.9 928.3 918.9 933.8 932.4 915.9 917.0 930.2
773.1 793.9 797.0 778.3 764.8 752.4 774.6 809.9 796.7 791.1 846.5 833.3
777.9 776.8 804.8 783.7 768.5 757.1 755.6 799.8 810.6 790.7 826.2 828.4
1,220.1 1,241.9 1,253.9 1,266.9 1,249.0 1,246.0 1,266.9 1,282.3 1,302.9 1,309.9 1,371.8 1,381.3
1,217.0 1,225.1 1,249.4 1,257.7 1,254.1 1,244.9 1,260.0 1,272.4 1,291.2 1,303.3 1,345.6 1,355.2
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
943.9 937.3 991.7 999.7 1,031.4 1,043.4 1,008.5 1,081.8 1,187.7 1,291.4 1,482.7 1,257.5
942.4 944.7 979.9 986.7 1,036.7 1,029.3 1,019.1 1,041.5 1,130.4 1,326.9 1,390.1 1,373.8
889.1 889.7 1,000.2 961.8 977.0 981.8 932.9 987.9 1,144.2 1,306.0 1,553.8 1,393.9
872.9 880.6 972.3 962.4 994.2 963.0 954.2 953.0 1,060.6 1,327.1 1,435.1 1,503.3
1402.3 1423.5 1,565.0 1,556.2 1,599.6 1,647.1 1,571.0 1,590.3 1,707.2 1,664.4 1,912.6 1,776.2
1,386.2 1,395.4 1,519.5 1,555.1 1,614.6 1,601.7 1,606.4 1,561.6 1,627.6 1,765.3 1,768.9 1,846.1
Y-o-Y change (%) 2006 2007
-8.2 0.9
-6.7 -2.8
-9.1 6.6
-11.7 -3.9
1.9 -13.0
-5.9 6.1
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-3.1 -3.2 -3.7 -1.7 -1.9 -3.5 -3.1 -2.1 -2.6 -3.9 -0.0 0.9
-5.1 -3.4 -3.3 -2.4 -1.4 -2.8 -3.3 -2.8 -2.2 -4.0 -2.1 0.5
-6.3 -4.8 -4.2 -6.0 -9.2 -9.8 -6.7 -1.3 -0.7 -1.5 5.9 6.6
-8.9 -5.5 -3.2 -3.8 -8.8 -9.1 -8.0 -3.6 -0.5 -1.5 3.5 4.8
3.9 8.2 5.6 6.9 3.4 2.5 4.2 4.1 8.5 9.1 12.2 13.0
1.9 5.6 6.5 7.5 4.4 3.0 4.5 3.4 6.3 8.4 11.6 10.8
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0.3 -0.1 5.5 7.6 10.9 12.6 9.2 15.1 29.0 42.3 59.5 34.0
0.6 0.8 3.9 5.9 11.7 10.9 10.9 11.5 21.2 44.9 51.6 47.7
15.0 12.1 25.5 23.6 27.8 30.5 20.4 22.0 43.6 65.1 83.6 67.3
12.2 13.4 20.8 22.8 29.4 27.2 26.3 19.2 30.8 67.8 73.7 81.5
14.9 14.6 24.8 22.8 28.1 32.2 24.0 24.0 31.0 27.1 39.4 28.6
13.9 13.9 21.6 23.6 28.7 28.7 27.5 22.7 26.1 35.5 31.5 36.2
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
67
Editor-in-Chief Kim, Kyu-Ok (MOSF) Editorial Board Rim, Jin-Hong (MOSF) Kim, Dong-Yule (KDI) Lee, In-Sook (KDI) Coordinators Oh, Hae-Young (MOSF) Kang, Ji-Eun (KDI) Editors Kim, Dae-Hyun (MOSF) Lim, Keun-Hyuk (MOSF) Cho, Hyun-Joo (KDI)
Useful Internet Websites Economy-related Websites Recommended
Ministry of Strategy and Finance http://english.mosf.go.kr Ministry of Knowledge Economy http://www.mke.go.kr/language/eng Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr Fair Trade Commission http://www.ftc.go.kr/eng Ministry of Labor http://english.molab.go.kr/english The Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr Korea National Statistical Office http://www.nso.go.kr/eng2006