Vol. 31 | No. 2
Republic of Korea
Economic Bulletin The Green Book : Current Economic Trends Overview
3
1. Global economy
4
2. Private consumption
8
3. Facility investment
12
4. Construction investment
14
5. Exports and imports
16
6. Mining and manufacturing production
18
7. Service sector activity
20
8. Employment
22
9. Financial markets
24
9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4
Stock market Exchange rate Bond market Money supply & money market
10. Balance of payments
28
11. Prices and international commodity prices
30
11.1 Prices 11.2 International oil and commodity prices 12. Real estate market
34
12.1 Housing market 12.2 Land market 13. Composite indexes of business cycle indicators
38
Policy Issues Growing a qualified workforce and promoting R&D in the service industry - Service PROGRESS III th
40
The 5 privatization plan
43
Economic News Briefing
45
Statistical Appendices
51
The Green Book Current Economic Trends
Overview Despite mitigated inflationary pressures, Korea has seen the spectre of recession loom larger, as real economic indicators such as production, domestic demand, and exports further deteriorated. Mining and manufacturing production posted a year-on-year drop of 18.6 percent in December 2008 due to worsening domestic demand and a sharp drop of 17.9 percent in exports following a 19.5 percent fall in the previous month. December consumer goods sales dipped, posting a year-on-year decrease of 7.0 percent and a month-on-month loss of 1.8 percent as the sales of both durable goods such as cars, computers and telecommunications equipment, and semi-durable goods such as apparel, slumped. Facility investment (estimated) plunged 24.1 percent year-on-year in December after falling 17.5 percent in the previous month, due to decreased investments in transportation equipment and machinery including semiconductor equipment. The total number of workers hired fell by 12,000 year-on-year in December, exacerbating the already-tough Korean job market. In December, the leading composite index fell for the thirteenth consecutive month on a year-on-year basis, while the cyclical indicator of coincident composite index went down for the eleventh straight month. Exports deepened their fall in January 2009, posting a 32.8 percent drop due to declines in overseas demand, drops in unit export prices, and a 2.5 working day loss. In December, despite a drop in exports, Korea posted a surplus of US$860 million, a third consecutive monthly current account surplus, thanks to a reduced deficit in the service account from a year earlier and an import decline led by falling oil prices. In January, however, the current account is expected to enter negative territory as the trade balance recorded a huge deficit. Thanks to falling petroleum product prices, consumer prices slowed down for the sixth consecutive month in January, posting a year-on-year rise of 3.7 percent. The Korean financial market in January showed signs of stabilizing thanks to high expectations for stimulus packages and long positions held by foreign investors. However, the won lost its value compared with the end of 2008. In sum, the overall Korean economy has decelerated faster than expected as the deepening global economic downturn caused production and exports to shrink significantly. Against this backdrop, continued efforts to address volatility in the financial and forex markets should be made. In addition, early execution of budget spending aimed at job creation and revitalization of the real economy, and policy measures to help SMEs and the ordinary people stay afloat should be sought after.
Economic Bulletin
3
1. Global economy Developing countries including China showed clear signs of economic slowdown as advanced economies led by the US and Japan were hit by recession. The IMF revised down its 2009 forecast for global economic growth on January 29, 2009 to 0.5 percent from the previous projection of 2.2 percent. IMF’s growth forecasts for 2009 (%) -1.6 (US), -2.0 (Eurozone), -2.6 (Japan), 6.7 (China)
US
The US economy remained locked in a downward spiral as its fourth quarter GDP recorded the sharpest drop of 3.8 percent (preliminary, q-o-q annualized) since 1982. Consumption slowed its fall to a 3.5 percent decrease compared with a 3.8 percent decline in the previous quarter, as opposed to corporate fixed investment and residential construction investment, which deepened their decline. The US housing market is unlikely to take an upturn soon, as housing demand slumped, posting the lowest new home sales ever in December, depressing construction markets. New home sales (thousand) 448 (Aug 2008)
434 (Sep)
406 (Oct)
388 (Nov)
331 (Dec)
-2.2 (Oct)
-2.2 (Nov)
Case-Shiller home price index (m-o-m, %) -0.8 (Jul 2008)
-1.0 (Aug)
-1.8 (Sep)
Both exports and imports took a downward trajectory in November as the global economy tumbled and the US economy fell into a recession. Exports (y-o-y, %) 20.1 (Jul 2008)
16.3 (Aug)
8.6 (Sep)
5.2 (Oct)
-1.7 (Nov)
13.6 (Aug)
6.8 (Sep)
3.9 (Oct)
-10.6 (Nov)
Imports (y-o-y, %) 16.3 (Jul 2008)
The Fed decided to keep the federal funds rate between zero and 0.25 percent on January 28, when the stimulus package of US$819 billion passed the House. (Percentage change from previous period) 2007
Real GDP
2008
Annual
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Nov
Dec
2.0
-0.2
1.3
0.9
2.8
-0.5
-3.8
-
-
- Personal consumption expenditure
2.8
1.0
0.3
0.9
1.2
-3.8
-3.5
-
-
- Corporate fixed investment
4.9
3.4
1.8
2.4
2.5
-1.7
-19.1
-
-
-17.9
-27.0
-20.8
-25.1
-13.3
-16.0
-23.6
-
-
Industrial production
1.7
0.3
-1.8
0.1
-0.9
-2.3
-3.0
-1.3
-2.0
Retail sales
4.2
1.3
-0.4
-0.3
0.9
-1.3
-6.8
-2.1
-2.7
New non-farm payroll employment (q-o-q, thousand)
1,096
241
-2,589
-247
-214
-597
-1,531
-584
-524
New home sales
-26.2
-10.9
-37.6
-13.8
-7.5
-10.9
-18.9
-4.4
-14.7
2.9
4.0
3.9
4.1
4.4
5.3
1.6
1.1
0.1
1
- Construction investment for housing
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) 1. Annualized rate (%)
4
February 2009
1-1
US GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate) Source: US Department of Commerce
1-2
US non-farm payroll employment (m-o-m change) Source: US Department of Labor
1-3
US federal funds rate and consumer prices Source: US Federal Reserve Board & Department of Labor
Economic Bulletin
5
China
China’s economy fell to single digit growth, posting 6.8 percent for the fourth quarter and 9.0 percent for 2008, for the first time since 2003 when the economy gained double digit annual growth. China’s exports in December further decreased by 2.8 percent year-on-year, after recording the first drop of 2.2 percent in November since February 2002. Economy-boosting efforts such as 850 billion yuan support for medical system improvement and government aid given to rural residents for home electronics purchases were added to the existing economic stimulus efforts on January 21. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
2007
Annual Annual
2008 Q3
Q4
Nov
Real GDP
11.6
13.0
11.2
9.0
10.6
10.1
9.0
6.8
-
-
Fixed asset investment (accumulated)
24.5
25.8
25.8
26.1
25.9
26.8
27.6
26.1
26.8
26.1
Retail sales
13.7
16.8
19.0
21.6
20.6
22.2
23.2
20.4
20.8
19.0
Industrial production
16.6
18.5
17.5
12.9
16.4
15.9
13.0
6.4
5.4
5.7
Exports Consumer prices
27.2 1.5
25.7 4.8
22.2 6.6
17.2 5.9
21.4 8.0
22.4 7.8
22.9 5.3
4.1 2.5
-2.2 2.4
-2.8 1.2
Producer prices
3.0
3.1
4.4
6.9
6.9
8.4
9.7
2.5
2.0
-1.1
Japan
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Dec
The Japanese economy saw both production and consumption falling at a faster pace in December 2008 due to slumping exports. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) revised down its assessment of the current economy from worsening to severely worsening, and froze the benchmark interest rate at 0.1 percent on January 22, 2009. 2006
(Percentage change from previous period) 2008
2007 Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Nov
Real GDP
Annual Annual 2.0
2.4
0.5
-
0.6
-1.0
-0.5
-
-
Dec -
Industrial and mining production
4.5
2.8
0.9
-3.3
-0.7
-0.8
-1.3
-11.9
-8.5
-9.6
Retail sales (y-o-y, %)
0.1
-0.1
0.8
0.3
1.8
0.2
0.8
-1.5
-0.9
-2.7
Exports (y-o-y, %)
14.6
11.5
10.0
-3.4
6.0
1.8
3.2
-23.1
-26.7
-35.0
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %)
0.3
0.0
0.5
1.4
1.0
1.4
2.2
1.0
1.0
0.4
Eurozone
November exports in the eurozone took a steep downturn along with ongoing declines in production and consumption. The European Central Bank (ECB) took another rate cut as inflation in December was well below the target of two percent. Benchmark interest rate (%) 3.75
3.25 (Nov 7, 2008)
2.5 (Dec 4)
2.0 (Jan 16, 2009) (Percentage change from previous period)
2006
2007
Annual Annual
2008 Q3
Oct
Nov
Real GDP
2.9
2.6
0.3
-
0.7
-0.2
-0.2
-
-
-
Industrial production
4.0
3.5
1.1
-
-0.2
-1.1
-1.5
-1.6
-1.8
-
Retail sales
1.6
0.9
-0.6
-
-0.3
-0.9
0.1
-1.0
-0.1
-
Exports (y-o-y, %)
11.7
8.6
5.6
-
6.9
8.3
5.2
0.3
-10.4
-
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %)
2.2
2.1
2.9
3.3
3.4
3.6
3.8
3.2
2.1
1.6
6
February 2009
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Dec
1-4
China’s GDP and fixed asset investment Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
1-5
Japan’s GDP growth Source: Cabinet Office & Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan
1-6
Eurozone GDP growth and industrial production Source: Eurostat
Economic Bulletin
7
2. Private consumption Private consumption (advance estimates of GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2008 saw the sharpest decline since the Asian financial crisis, posting a year-on-year decrease of 4.4 percent, and quarter-on-quarter of 4.8 percent. Private consumption (y-o-y, %) 4.8 (Q3 2007)
4.6 (Q4)
3.4 (Q1 2008)
(SA*, q-o-q, %): 1.3 (Q3 2007)
2.3 (Q2)
0.8 (Q4)
1.1 (Q3)
0.4 (Q1 2008)
-4.4 (Q4)
-0.2 (Q2)
0.1(Q3)
-4.8 (Q4)
* SA: seasonally adjusted
December consumer goods sales fell year-on-year as the sales of durable, semi-durable, and non-durable goods went south altogether. Sales of durable goods continued to slump as the sales of cars fell for the fifth consecutive month. Sales of semi-durable goods plummeted 13.7 percent in December, a sharp decline compared with November’s 3.7 percent drop. Sales of non-durables showed a month-onmonth increase of 0.8 percent, decelerating year-on-year decline from 1.6 percent in November to 0.1 percent in December. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007
2008
Annual
Q4
Dec
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q41
Oct
Nov1
Dec1
Consumer goods sales
5.3
4.5
2.6
0.4
3.9
2.5
1.1
-5.5
-3.7
-5.8
-7.0
(Seasonally adjusted)
-
0.3
-
-
2.0
-1.1
0.0
-5.8
-1.5
-2.2
-1.8
- Durable goods
2
11.0
6.9
5.4
1.2
8.2
7.6
-0.2
-10.3
0.7
-16.3
-14.5
6.8
3.9
-0.8
-3.1
9.5
7.1
-5.0
-22.6
-3.1
-39.4
-23.8
- Semi-durable goods4
2.9
2.9
0.9
-0.9
5.4
-1.6
1.6
-7.6
-4.9
-3.7
-13.7
- Non-durable goods
3.7
4.0
2.1
0.6
1.5
1.6
1.5
-2.2
-5.1
-1.6
-0.1
3
·Automobiles 5
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period 3. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 4. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 5. Non-durable good: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobaccos, etc.
Sales at large discounters and department stores, which had shown relatively good figures, decreased significantly. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) Annual
Q4
Dec
Annual
Q1
2008 (Percentage (Percentage change change from from same same period period in in previous previous year) year) Q2 Q3 Q41 Oct Nov1 Dec1
- Department stores
0.7
2.8
-1.7
0.5
4.3
3.7
- Large discounters
8.7
4.4
7.1
1.8
7.3
3.2
-0.9
-2.1
-1.5
2.4
-6.9
- Specialized retailers2
5.6
4.4
1.6
-2.5
1.6
0.1
-1.4
-9.6
-7.8
-11.0
-10.1
2007
1. Preliminary 2. Specialized retailers are defined as stores carrying a few (1 to 3) specialized items.
8
February 2009
0.1
-4.8
-1.9
-0.4
-11.7
2-1
Private consumption Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
2-2
Consumer goods sales Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
2-3
Consumer goods sales by type Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
9
The January consumer goods sales are supposed to be positively affected by the Lunar New Year holidays. However, given deteriorating consumer sentiment, consumer goods sales are unlikely to snap their current downtrend. Domestic credit card spending continued to post single digit growth for the third consecutive month with a falling growth rate. Sales at large discounters and department stores increased, affected by increased demand around the Lunar New Year holidays. Domestic sales of Korean cars took a tumble in spite of the announcement on December 19 of a 30 percent cut in the consumption tax on vehicles. Value of credit card use (y-o-y, %) 19.0 (Aug 2008)
21.0 (Sep)
15.2 (Oct)
9.8 (Nov)
9.1 (Dec)
3.9 (Jan 2009)
Department store sales (y-o-y, %) 14.0 (Aug 2008)
-0.3 (Sep)
0.0 (Oct)
7.5 (Nov)
-3.2 (Dec)
10.2 (Jan 2009)
-0.7 (Oct)
2.3 (Nov)
-2.1 (Dec)
19.6 (Jan 2009)
Discount store sales (y-o-y, %) 1.1 (Aug 2008)
-9.2 (Sep)
Domestic sales of Korean automobiles (y-o-y, %) -18.7 (Aug 2008)
-14.5 (Sep)
-0.1 (Oct)
-27.7 (Nov)
-23.8 (Dec)
-24.1 (Jan 2009)
Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy The Credit Finance Association Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association Ministry of Strategy and Finance (for January data)
Consumer spending is likely to remain locked in a downtrend in the months to come, as worsening job markets, a negative wealth effect from plunging real estate prices, and declining real income have continued to undermine consumer sentiment. Employment (y-o-y, thousand) 173 (Q2 2008)
141 (Q3)
97 (Oct)
78 (Nov)
-12 (Dec)
Nationwide apartment prices (m-o-m, %) 0.2 (Sep 2008)
-0.1 (Oct)
-0.5 (Nov)
-0.9 (Dec)
-0.7 (Jan 2009)
Consumer sentiment index 85 (Q2 2008)
92 (Q3)
88 (Oct)
84 (Nov)
81 (Dec)
Real income (y-o-y, %) 0.5 (Q4 2007)
1.8 (Q1 2008)
Source: The Bank of Korea
10
February 2009
2.6 (Q2)
-2.4 (Q3)
84 (Jan 2009)
2-4
Department store and discount store sales (current value) Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy (monthly retail sales)
2-5
Domestic automobile sales Source: Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association (monthly automobile industry trend)
2-6
Consumer sentiment index Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
11
3. Facility investment Facility investment (advance estimates of GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2008 saw a year-onyear decrease of 14.0 percent and a 16.1 percent loss from the previous quarter. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
20071
Annual Annual Facility investment
Q1
Q2
20081 Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
7.8
7.6
10.9
11.0
2.3
6.5
-2.0
1.4
0.7
4.7
-14.0
-
-
4.5
1.6
-1.8
2.1
-
-0.4
0.9
2.1
-16.1
- Machinery
8.2
7.6
13.5
9.5
1.0
7.0
-
-0.9
-0.1
6.6
-
- Transportation equipment
6.0
7.7
0.3
18.9
8.9
4.0
-
12.3
4.4
-4.7
-
2
(Seasonally adjusted)3
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts 3. Percentage change from previous period
Facility investment (estimated) in December declined at a faster pace from a year earlier, as investments in both machinery such as semiconductor equipment and transportation equipment fell. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
2007
Annual Annual Facility investment (estimated)
2008
Q4
Dec
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q41
Oct
Nov1
Dec1
8.9
8.6
9.2
10.1
-3.1
-0.9
0.1
6.1
-16.8
-7.7
-17.5
-24.1
-
-
5.9
2.5
-
-5.3
1.4
3.2
-16.3
-11.0
-0.8
-10.4
- Machinery
10.2
8.5
6.4
4.6
-4.0
-1.8
-1.6
6.2
-17.7
-10.4
-18.9
-23.5
- Transportation equipment
3.9
9.0
21.0
40.3
0.4
2.9
7.6
6.2
-13.0
7.9
-9.8
-27.9
(Seasonally adjusted)2
Domestic machinery orders
16.2
21.1
39.3
28.8
-5.4
25.2
8.8
-7.6
-39.5
-36.5
-43.9
-38.4
- Public
0.3
-11.2
12.9
174.9
4.8
8.8
83.4
-26.8
-3.5
348.0
-4.7
-43.2
- Private
18.0
24.2
43.4
8.8
-6.1
25.9
5.9
-6.4
-43.9
-45.9
-46.7
-36.8
Machinery imports
18.0
22.1
30.3
25.9
6.4
12.0
8.1
19.9
-11.5
7.7
-20.6
-20.7
Facility investment adjustment pressure3
4.6
1.8
4.9
3.5
-2.1
4.8
2.8
0.6
-10.4
-5.9
-17.6
-22.5
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period 3. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p)
Both the Bank of Korea’s BSI for facility investment projections and results in the manufacturing sector rose by a small margin month-on-month, but stood far below 100, showing low investment levels.
2008
Business survey indexes (base=100)
2009
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Manufacturing facility investment result
96
95
88
80
81
-
Manufacturing facility investment prospect
99
96
93
86
78
81
Source: The Bank of Korea
12
February 2009
Feb
3-1
Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
3-2
Machinery orders and estimated facility investment (3-month average) Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
3-3
Machinery imports Source: Korea International Trade Association (KITA)
Economic Bulletin
13
4. Construction investment Construction investment (advance estimates of GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2008 dipped 6.1 percent year-on-year, or 4.0 percent quarter-on-quarter. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
2007
Annual Annual
20081
1
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-0.1
1.2
3.7
1.6
-0.1
0.4
-2.7
-1.1
-1.2
-1.3
-6.1
-
-
-0.3
-1.2
0.2
1.2
-
-1.4
-1.0
0.0
-4.0
- Building construction
-0.7
1.8
2.0
1.2
1.8
2.2
-
-0.3
-1.8
-1.9
-
- Civil engineering works
0.7
0.3
7.2
2.1
-2.9
-1.8
-
-2.5
-0.5
-0.2
-
Construction investment2 (Seasonally adjusted)3
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts 3. Percentage change from previous period
In December, construction completed (current value) declined at a faster pace due to a plunge in building construction. Construction completed in the public sector slowed its growth to 3.5 percent in December from 5.8 percent in November. Construction completed in the private sector deepened its downturn from a 6.9 percent fall in November to a 16.0 percent drop in December. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
2007
Annual Annual
Q4
2008 Dec
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q41
Oct
Nov1
Dec1
Construction completed
2.6
6.6
8.0
9.2
4.9
5.8
6.5
11.1
-2.2
5.1
-1.3
-8.7
- Building construction
1.8
6.2
9.8
13.6
1.9
4.7
6.6
9.4
-10.6
-3.4
-8.4
-18.7
- Civil engineering works
4.3
6.9
5.0
3.0
10.9
8.1
6.4
14.8
13.6
22.5
12.3
8.3
1. Preliminary
Construction orders in December soared due to order increases in civil engineering works and a low base effect from December 2007, when construction orders rose mere 1.4 percent affected by a price cap regulation on apartment houses. However, given the depression in the housing market and draining investor confidence in the construction sector, construction investment will be unlikely to improve in the months to come. Business survey index for construction (base=100) 52.3 (Aug 2008)
50.1 (Sep)
31.1 (Oct)
14.6 (Nov)
37.3 (Dec)
Source: The Construction and Economy Research Institute of Korea
(Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
2007
Annual Annual
2008
Q4
Dec
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q41
Oct
Nov1
Dec1
Construction orders
9.0
19.3
29.5
1.4
-8.2
-3.9
-6.1
-22.8
-3.7
-23.9
-35.4
33.5
- Public
-6.3
34.2
47.2
34.6
11.0
20.0
18.6
3.3
6.4
-25.6
-16.6
42.3
- Private
12.8
13.1
28.6
2.8
-15.3
-15.0
-5.9
-32.5
-11.9
-32.6
-41.4
25.2
Building permit area
19.5
13.3
80.8
-16.7
-
-8.3
3.9
-13.5
-
-60.3
-55.4
-
1. Preliminary
14
February 2009
4-1
Construction investment Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
4-2
Construction completed and housing construction Source: Korea National Statistical Office (construction completed) Kookmin Bank (housing construction) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
4-3
Leading indicators of construction investment Source: Korea National Statistical Office (construction orders) Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (building construction permit area)
Economic Bulletin
15
5. Exports and imports Exports in January 2009 tumbled by a record 32.8 percent year-on-year to US$21.69 billion. According to the estimates by the Ministry of Knowledge Economy, exports of Korea’s flagship products excluding vessels (up 20.2%) overall dropped. In particular, exports of IT products such as semiconductors (down 46.6%) and computers (down 60.4%) plunged. By regional category, while exports to the Middle East (down 7.5%) posted single digit loss, those to Central and South America (down 36.0%), the EU (down 46.9%), Japan (down 29.3%), China (down 32.2%), the US (down 21.5%), and ASEAN nations (down 31.7%) dropped more than 20 percent. (US$ billion) 2007
2008
2009
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Exports
34.43
35.81
33.03
32.28
37.11
28.84
27.12
21.69
(y-o-y, %)
22.9
17.0
14.8
14.9
7.8
-19.5
-17.9
-32.8
Average daily exports
1.44
1.49
1.54
1.35
1.55
1.28
1.13
1.01
Imports
32.74
33.93
33.90
36.32
36.10
28.85
26.58
24.66
(y-o-y, %)
27.8
26.8
23.2
31.8
10.3
-15.0
-21.6
-32.1
Average daily imports
1.36
1.41
1.58
1.51
1.50
1.28
1.11
1.15
Trade balance
1.69
1.88
-0.87
-4.04
1.01
-0.01
0.54
-2.97
January imports dropped 32.1 percent to US$24.66 billion, the biggest fall since July 1998 when a loss of 43.9 percent was recorded. Falling prices of raw materials and flagging domestic demand led January imports of raw materials, capital goods as well as consumer goods to plunge. Raw materials (y-o-y, %) 60.9 (Sep 2008)
20.2 (Oct)
-7.5 (Nov)
-21.0 (Dec)
-22.5 (Jan 1~20)
-23.8 (Nov)
-26.0 (Dec)
-23.6 (Jan 1~20)
Capital goods (y-o-y, %) 26.2 (Sep 2008)
0.1 (Oct)
Consumer goods (y-o-y, %) 18.9 (Sep 2008)
-10.0 (Oct)
-28.8 (Nov)
-11.1 (Dec)
-21.6 (Jan 1~20)
However, oil imports climbed in January owing to a scheduled rise in quota tariffs in February. Quota tariffs on crude oil 1% (until Jan 2009)
2% (Feb)
3% (starting Mar 1)
Korea posted a trade deficit of US$2.97 billion in January, down from a deficit of US$4.04 billion in January 2008 when a 79 percent surge in oil imports resulting from high prices and increased demand pushed up the trade deficit. Exports and imports are likely to continue their downward trajectory in February, but a two day increase in the number of working days is expected to slow their pace of decline.
16
February 2009
5-1
Exports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-2
Imports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-3
Trade balance Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
Economic Bulletin
17
6. Mining and manufacturing production Production in mining and manufacturing slumped 18.6 percent year-on-year in December 2008 after recording a year-on-year fall of 14.0 percent a month earlier, due to deteriorating domestic demand and a continued downtrend in exports which decreased 19.5 percent in November and 17.9 percent in December. By business category, semiconductors and parts (down 42.8%), automobiles (down 29.3%), and primary metals (down 24.8%) greatly contributed to a year-on-year reduction in output.
Contribution to year-on-year output growth (%p) Semiconductors and parts (-8.16), automobiles (-3.02), primary metals (-1.71)
Growth in inventories greatly decelerated to 7.0 percent in December from 16.0 percent a month earlier as decreased exports and weak domestic demand led to a cut in production and a 15.4 percent drop in the same month’s shipments. By business category, shipments of semiconductors and parts sank 34.7 percent while automobiles slumped 25.7 percent. As growth in inventories outstripped that in shipments, the inventory cycle for the manufacturing industry has pointed to economic slowdown for eleven months in a row. The average operation ratio for manufacturing fell to 62.5 percent as shrinking demand was responded to by a sharper reduction in production. The ratio stood below 63.8 percent recorded in July 1998, the lowest during the Asian financial crisis. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007 Q4
Dec
Annual
Q3
Q41
Oct
Nov1
Dec1
-
3.1
-0.3
-
-2.2
-13.0
-2.1
-10.7
-9.6
(y-o-y)
6.8
10.8
9.4
2.8
5.6
-11.5
-2.3
-14.0
-18.6
- Manufacturing
7.0
11.2
9.8
2.8
5.5
-12.3
-2.8
-14.7
-19.8
·Heavy chemical industry
8.2
12.6
11.9
3.8
6.7
-13.0
-2.6
-15.2
-21.7
·Light industry
1.7
4.2
0.0
-1.8
0.5
-8.4
-3.3
-12.2
-9.9
Shipment
7.1
10.4
8.6
2.2
5.3
-10.2
-2.1
-13.3
-15.4
Production (q-o-q, m-o-m)
Mining and manufacturing activity2
- Domestic demand
4.9
6.9
3.5
-0.8
1.7
-11.1
-4.2
-14.2
-15.0
- Exports
10.2
16.0
16.9
6.8
10.5
-8.9
0.7
-12.1
-15.7
5.7
5.7
5.7
7.0
17.6
7.0
17.6
16.0
7.0
80.3
81.0
80.9
77.4
78.5
69.1
77.0
67.9
62.5
5.2
6.3
6.3
4.9
4.9
2.9
3.1
2.9
2.7
Inventory
3
Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) activity Production capacity 1. Preliminary
2008
Annual
2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry
3. End-period
January’s production in the mining and manufacturing sector is likely to stay on its downward trajectory due to a 2.5 day reduction in the number of working days from the Lunar New Year holidays and a downturn in exports which shrank 32.8 percent in January after receding 17.9 percent in December.
18
February 2009
6-1
Industrial production Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
6-2
Average manufacturing operation ratio Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
6-3
Inventory Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
19
7. Service sector activity Service activity in December 2008 was down 1.0 percent from a year earlier, slightly decelerating its decrease from the previous month. On a month-on-month basis, it reversed to a modest increase of 0.4 percent in December from a steep decline of 2.3 percent in the previous month. By business category, financial & insurance services (up 7.1%), healthcare & social welfare services (up 5.5%), and educational services (up 2.4%) expanded during the month. Meanwhile, hotels & restaurants (down 7.4%), real estate & rental services (down 6.8%), and wholesale & retail sales (down 4.5%) showed sluggish performance, reflecting deteriorating consumer sentiment and a contracting housing market. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) Weight
2007
2006 Annual Annual
2008
Q4
Dec
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q41
Oct
Nov1
Dec1
1
Service activity index
100
5.5
6.4
6.8
5.8
3.2
6.4
4.6
2.8
-0.3
1.5
-1.6
-1.0
- Wholesale & retail
22.0
3.8
4.3
5.2
2.2
1.1
3.9
2.5
3.1
-4.6
-2.9
-6.5
-4.5
- Hotels & restaurants
7.8
2.2
2.4
2.9
1.5
0.8
3.1
1.7
1.4
-3.0
0.9
-1.5
-7.4
- Transportation services
9.0
6.9
7.1
8.1
4.1
4.1
7.7
8.1
3.4
-2.4
-0.2
-6.1
-1.0
- Communication services
5.0
3.6
3.7
6.3
5.5
3.0
4.8
4.6
3.8
-1.0
0.1
0.4
-3.4
- Financial & insurance services
15.4
9.0
16.0
19.5
16.3
9.7
15.3
10.0
9.3
5.0
4.5
3.3
7.1
- Real estate & renting
6.3
9.8
2.7
-3.5
-0.5
-2.1
5.8
2.6
-8.6
-7.5
-8.1
-7.6
-6.8
- Business services
10.0
5.7
6.6
7.4
6.8
2.8
5.0
3.8
1.9
0.6
3.0
1.4
-1.7
- Educational services
10.6
2.6
2.3
1.4
5.6
1.7
3.3
1.9
-0.5
2.2
8.7
-4.6
2.4
- Healthcare & social welfare services
6.0
11.0
8.5
7.4
9.7
6.4
6.2
6.8
6.0
6.6
7.5
6.7
5.5
- Entertainment, cultural & sports services
3.8
1.8
6.4
5.7
4.6
2.2
4.1
1.8
1.2
2.2
4.9
6.0
-4.1
- Other public & personal services
4.2
3.8
0.7
1.0
-0.6
-0.1
2.0
0.9
-1.5
-1.8
-1.0
-1.5
-2.7
1. Preliminary
Service output growth in January 2009 is expected to remain weak as domestic demand contracted. Private consumption (y-o-y, %) 3.4 (Q1 2008)
20
February 2009
2.3 (Q2)
1.1 (Q3)
-4.4 (Q4)
7-1
Service industry Source: Korea National Statistical Office (service industry activity trend)
7-2
Wholesale and retail sales Source: Korea National Statistical Office (service industry activity trend)
Dec 2008 service industry by business
serv ices Hea l t h serv care ices & s ocia l we lfar e Ente spo rtainm rts s en ervi t, cu ces ltura l& Oth & p er pub erso lic, nal repa serv ir ices
Edu cati ona l
Bus ines s se rvic es
rent ing Rea l es tate &
Com mun icat ion serv ices Fina serv ncial & ices insu ranc e
Tran spo rtat ion
rest aura nts Hot els &
Wh oles ale &
reta il
Source: Korea National Statistical Office (service industry activity trend)
Tota l ind ex
7-3
Economic Bulletin
21
8. Employment The number of Korean workers on payroll in December 2008 declined 12,000 year-on-year affected by weak domestic demand and decreased exports. It was the fastest fall since October 2003 when the number of employed dropped 86,000. Employment in the manufacturing sector dropped 99,000 after decreasing 56,000 in the previous month, mainly due to falling exports. Hiring in the construction sector also decreased 45,000 compared with the fall of 29,000 a month earlier. Employment in the service sector increased mere 119,000 after climbing 111,000 a month earlier as wholesale & retail sales and hotels & restaurants continued to shed jobs with those employed in the sector declining 65,000. (Change from same period in previous year, thousand) 2007
2008
Annual
Dec
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Nov
Dec
Employment growth
282
268
145
209
173
141
54
78
-12
- Manufacturing
-48
-26
-40
-24
-25
-38
-73
-56
-99
- Construction
15
-5
-32
-17
-38
-33
-37
-29
-45
- Services
373
369
245
312
285
242
147
111
119
- Agriculture, forestry and fishery
-58
-70
-34
-62
-52
-34
3
47
9
By status of workers, the growth in the number of wage workers sharply decelerated to 86,000. The number of temporary or daily workers, in particular, shrank significantly by 232,000 from a year earlier, although that of regular workers increased by 318,000. (Change from same period in previous year, thousand) 2007
2008
Annual
Dec
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Nov
Dec
Employment growth
282
268
145
209
173
141
54
78
-12
- Wage workers
420
382
236
312
289
208
137
159
86
416
407
386
435
448
347
316
318
318
Regular workers Temporary or daily workers
4
-26
-150
-123
-159
-140
-179
-159
-232
-137
-114
-92
-102
-115
-66
-83
-81
-97
-85
-96
-79
-79
-67
-76
-95
-83
-93
Unemployment rate (%)
3.2
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.3
Employment rate (%)
59.8
59.1
59.5
58.5
60.4
59.9
59.4
59.9
58.4
- Non-wage workers Self-employed workers
The employment rate stood at 58.4 percent, down 0.7 percentage points compared to the same month of the previous year. The unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage points yearon-year to 3.3 percent, while the unemployment rate of youths aged 15 to 29 was up 0.3 percentage points from a year earlier to 7.6 percent.
22
February 2009
8-1
Number of employed and employment growth Source: Korea National Statistical Office (employment trend)
8-2
Share of employed by industry Source: Korea National Statistical Office (employment trend)
8-3
Unemployment rate and number of unemployed Source: Korea National Statistical Office (employment trend)
Economic Bulletin
23
9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market The Korean stock market stabilized somewhat in January 2009, on expectations over the effects from economic stimulus packages implemented or planned at home and abroad. There exist, however, worries over deepening economic recession. Foreign investors maintained their net buying positions for two consecutive months as international financial market jitters were subdued. Net buying of Korean shares by foreign investors (trillion won) -34.6 (2008), -1.6 (Nov 2008)
0.9 (Dec)
0.8 (Jan 2009) (End-period, point, trillion won)
KOSPI
Stock price index Market capitalization
KOSDAQ
2008
Jan 2009
Change1
2008
Jan 2009
Change1
1,124.4
1,162.1
37.7 (+3.3%)
332.0
364.9
32.9 (+9.9%)
576.9
554.1
-22.8 (-4.0%)
46.1
41.9
-4.2 (-9.1%)
5.1
4.6
-0.5 (-9.8%)
1.2
1.3
0.1 (+8.3%)
Average daily trade value 1. Change from the end of previous year
9.2 Exchange rate The won/dollar exchange rate in January 2009 jumped from the end of 2008 to wrap up the month at 1,379.5 won. The exchange rate remained unstable during the month as the US stock market fell 11.4 percent while Korean importers demanded more dollars to pay for their imported goods at the beginning of the year. The fall of the won’s value against the dollar, however, was limited as KOSPI rebounded and foreign investors maintained their net buying positions in the Korean stock market for two months in a row. The won/yen exchange rate surged to the 1,540 won range due to the weaker won. (End-period) 2005
2006
2007
2008
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Jan
Change1
Won/Dollar
1,011.6
929.8
936.1
1,259.5
1,379.5
-8.7
Won/100Yen
858.5
783.4
828.6
1,396.8
1,543.1
-9.7
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.
24
February 2009
2009
9-1
Stock prices
9-2
Foreign exchange rate (month-end)
9-3
Recent foreign exchange rate
Economic Bulletin
25
9.3 Bond market Bond yields in January 2009 fell for part of the month as the Bank of Korea injected liquidity. They, however, closed the month higher amid concerns over unbalanced supply and demand due to the plans for early fiscal execution and possible extra budget spending. The yields on CDs plunged as asset managers and brokerages increased purchases of CDs while CD issuances slowed down. (End-period) 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Nov
Dec
Jan
Change1
Call rate (1 day)
3.29
3.76
4.60
5.02
3.99
3.02
2.41
-61
CD (91 days)
3.43
4.09
4.86
5.82
5.45
3.93
2.96
-97
Treasury bonds (3 yrs)
3.28
5.08
4.92
5.74
4.87
3.41
3.59
18
Corporate bonds (3 yrs)
3.72
5.52
5.29
6.77
8.91
7.72
7.29
-43
Treasury bonds (5 yrs)
3.39
5.36
5.00
5.78
5.04
3.77
4.07
30
1. Basis point changes in January 2009 from end December 2008
9.4 Money supply & money market Year-on-year M2 (monthly average) growth in November 2008 decelerated slightly to 14.0 percent from the same month of the previous year. The modest slowdown was mainly attributed to continued money outflow in the overseas sector by foreign investors’ net selling of Korean shares and decelerated growth in private credits such as corporate and household loans. (Percentage change from same period in previous year, period average) 2006 Annual
2007 Annual
Q1
Q2
2008 Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Oct
Nov
Nov1
M12
9.1
8.1
9.4
9.8
8.3
4.8
2.9
4.1
4.8
5.6
6.1
348.6
M2
8.3
11.2
11.5
11.0
11.1
11.2
13.3
15.3
14.7
14.2
14.0
1,426.2
Lf 3
7.9
10.2
10.0
10.2
10.2
10.5
11.6
12.8
12.1
11.9
Mid 11
1,845.74
1. Balance at end November 2008, trillion won 2. Excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3) 4. Balance at end October 2008, trillion won
In November, bank deposit growth decelerated considerably mainly as time deposits decreased due to a sharp fall in deposit rates and issuances of subordinated bonds paying high yields. Asset management company (AMC) deposits recorded a similar pace of growth compared to the previous month as short-term idle money of banks and brokerages flowed into money market funds (MMFs). (Monthly change, end-period, trillion won) 2007
2008
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-Sep
Oct
Nov
Bank deposits
-8.3
4.3
6.5
7.6
11.3
-4.3
76.4
21.8
9.0
AMC deposits
3.9
4.0
3.3
13.0
14.3
-0.4
45.0
2.4
2.8
26
February 2009
9-4
Interest rates Source: The Bank of Korea
9-5
Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea
9-6
Share of deposits by financial sector (M3 as of year-end) Source: The Bank of Korea * Retail finance: Mutual savings banks & National Credit Union Federation of Korea, Others: Investment banks, post office savings, etc.
Economic Bulletin
27
10. Balance of payments South Korea posted a current account surplus for the third consecutive month in December 2008 with a surplus of US$860 million. The goods account registered a surplus of US$1.5 billion compared to the previous year’s US$840 million deficit as a decrease in exports amid the global economic downturn was outweighed by a faster decline in imports affected by falling international oil prices and weak domestic demand. The service account has improved to post a US$1.52 billion deficit from a US$1.77 billion deficit a year earlier, on the back of a decreased deficit in the travel account and an increased surplus in the transportation account despite an expanded deficit in the business service sector. The income account recorded a US$580 million surplus, a similar level to the previous year’s US$560 million surplus as a surplus in the interest income account decreased while the dividend income account posted a surplus. The capital transfer account registered a surplus for three consecutive months as Korean residents overseas remitted more money to their home country amid the won’s depreciation. The capital transfer account recorded a US$310 million surplus compared with a US$300 million deficit in the same month of the previous year. The current account in 2008 marked a US$6.41 billion deficit, reversing its course to negative territory for the first time in 11 years since 1997 when the current account deficit amounted to US$8.29 billion. (US$ billion) 2007
2008
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-Dec
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-Dec
Current account
3.01
1.67
-0.84
5.88
4.75
1.96
0.86
-6.41
- Goods balance
4.36
2.72
0.67
28.17
2.63
0.84
1.50
5.99
- Service balance
-1.53
-1.41
-1.77
-19.77
-0.05
-0.13
-1.52
16.73
·Travel balance
-1.26
-1.14
-1.36
-15.84
0.50
0.42
-0.21
-8.05
- Income balance
0.45
0.47
0.56
1.00
1.41
0.72
0.58
5.11
- Current transfers
-0.28
-0.11
-0.30
-3.53
0.77
0.47
0.31
-0.77
The capital and financial account balance continued a net outflow in December. The volume of net outflow, however, has narrowed from the previous month’s US$12.1 billion to US$4.8 billion backed by net inflow of bank deposits and cash held by foreigners (US$12.5 billion), stabilizing the capital and financial account balance. In 2008, the capital and financial account balance posted a deficit of US$50.9 billion with increased outbound FDI by locals, net selling of Korean shares by foreign investors, and net payments of overseas loans by domestic financial institutions. Capital & financial account balance (US$ billion) -3.8 (Oct 2007)
-0.4 (Nov)
0.3 (Dec), -24.8 (Oct 2008)
-12.1 (Nov)
-4.8 (Dec)
The current account is likely to record a deficit in January 2009 for the first time in 4 months as the trade balance posted a huge deficit of US$2.97 billion.
28
February 2009
10-1 Current account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-2 Travel balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-3 Capital & financial account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
Economic Bulletin
29
11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices Consumer prices rose by 3.7 percent year-on-year in January 2009, slowing growth for the sixth straight month. They increased by 0.1 percent from a month earlier. While prices in agricultural, livestock and fishery products were up, an on-year increase in consumer prices significantly decelerated from a month earlier due to stable international oil prices, contracted domestic demand amid the economic slowdown and the relatively high inflation of 3.9 percent recorded in the previous month. Prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products were up 3.5 percent from a month earlier as prices of vegetables surged due to seasonal factors and increased demand around the Lunar New Year holidays. In the meantime, prices of petroleum products went down 4.0 percent month-on-month due to a drop in international oil prices, despite the end of the temporary reduction in tax on oil used in the transportation sector. Prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products in Jan 2009 (m-o-m, %) Unripe hot pepper (34.4), green pepper (48.5), perilla leaf (42.2), iceberg lettuce (40.0), lettuce (31.0), leek (24.5), spinach (20.1), Chinese cabbage (12.5)
Prices of oil products in Jan 2000 (m-o-m, %) Gasoline (1.5), diesel (-0.6), kerosene (-7.9), LPG for automobiles (-23.5), LPG for kitchen use (-20.5)
Consumer price inflation in major sectors Agricultural, livestock & fishery products
Total Month-on-Month (%)
Industrial products
Oil products
Public utility
Housing rents
Personal services
0.1
3.5
-0.7
-4.0
0.4
0.1
0.0
Contribution (%p)
-
0.27
-0.21
-0.22
0.06
0.01
0.01
Year-on-Year (%)
3.7
5.9
3.3
-14.1
2.2
2.3
4.8
Contribution (%p)
-
0.50
1.04
-0.87
0.37
0.22
1.67
Core consumer prices, which exclude the prices of oil and agricultural products, rose by 5.2 percent year-on-year as increases in international raw material prices were reflected with some time lag. Consumer prices for basic necessities, a barometer of perceived consumer prices, were up 2.8 percent in January compared to the same month of the previous year.
Consumer price inflation 2008
Month-on-Month (%)
2009
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
0.5
0.4
0.9
0.6
0.8
0.6
0.7
-0.2
0.1
-0.1
-0.3
0.0
0.1
Year-on-Year (%)
3.9
3.6
3.9
4.1
4.9
5.5
5.9
5.6
5.1
4.8
4.5
4.1
3.7
Core consumer prices (y-o-y)
2.8
2.8
3.3
3.5
3.9
4.3
4.6
4.7
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.6
5.2
(m-o-m)
0.6
0.4
1.1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.2
Consumer prices for basic necessities (y-o-y)
5.1
4.6
4.9
5.1
5.9
7.0
7.1
6.6
5.5
4.8
4.0
3.0
2.8
30
February 2009
11-1 Prices Source: Korea National Statistical Office (consumer prices, core inflation) & The Bank of Korea (producer prices)
11-2 Consumer price inflation Source: Korea National Statistical Office (consumer price trend)
11-3 Contribution to consumer price inflation Source: Korea National Statistical Office (consumer price trend)
Economic Bulletin
31
11.2. International oil and commodity prices Despite the prospect for a decrease in oil demand amid the global economic downturn, international oil prices slightly increased in January 2009 due to a decision by the OPEC to reduce oil production and concerns over a possible supply disruption in the Middle East. WTI crude prices fell below Dubai crude prices as oil price falls were noticeable in the US hit hard by the economic recession. (US$/barrel, period average) 2006
2007
Annual
Annual
2008 Annual
Jul
Aug
Sep
2009 Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Dubai crude
61.6
68.4
94.3
131.3
112.9
96.3
67.7
49.9
40.5
44.1
Brent crude
65.1
72.8
97.5
133.6
113.5
98.2
72.0
52.7
40.4
43.6
WTI crude
66.0
72.3
99.9
133.4
116.6
103.7
76.6
57.3
41.6
41.8
Record high oil prices (spot prices, US$/barrel) Dubai crude: 141 (Jul 4, 2008), Brent crude: 145 (Jul 3), WTI crude: 146 (Jul 14)
As for prices of domestic oil products, the gasoline prices were slighly up from a month earlier with the end of the temporaray oil tax reduction, while diesel prices stayed at a similar level in tandem with lower international oil prices. (Won/liter, period average) (Won/liter, period average) 2009
2006
2007
Annual
Annual
Annual
Jul
Aug
2008 Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Gasoline prices
1,492
1,526
1,692
1,923
1,785
1,716
1,687
1,514
1,329
1,352
Diesel prices
1,228
1,273
1,614
1,919
1,766
1,664
1,602
1,416
1,303
1,305
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Overall international prices of major non-ferrous metals and grain were up month-on-month in January due to worldwide decreases in supply. Prices of non-ferrous metals rose as major manufacturers reduced production and demand rose temporarily in China after the Lunar New Year holidays. Prices of grain such as soybean and corn moved upwards as dry weather conditions in Latin America lowered the projected harvest. Prices of non-ferrous metals and grain in Jan 2009 (m-o-m, %) Corn (7.9), wheat (10.1), soybean (14.4), bronze (4.2), aluminum (-6.0), nickel (15.8), zinc (7.8), lead (15.6), tin (2.3)
Reuters index*
(Period average)
2006
2007
2008
Annual
Annual
Annual
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
2,019
2,400
2,536
2,775
2,663
2,512
2,127
1,965
1,767
1,890
* A weighted average index of 17 major commodities
32
February 2009
2009
11-4 International oil prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
11-5 International oil prices (Dubai crude) and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation & Korea Customs Service
11-6 International commodity prices Source: Bloomberg (CRB) & The Bank of Korea (Reuters index) * CRB demonstrates futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry.
Economic Bulletin
33
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market In January 2009, apartment sales prices continued their downward trend and fell 0.7 percent from the previous month. The sliding pace of apartment sales prices, however, has slightly slowed from the previous month, as some improvements in the housing market sentiment have moderated sharp price falls in the Gangnam and Gangbuk areas in Seoul.
Nationwide apartment sales prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2005
2006
2007
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Jan 51
Jan 121
Jan 191
Nationwide
5.9
13.8
2.1
2.3
0.2
-0.1
-0.5
-0.9
-0.7
-0.15
-0.12
-0.10
Seoul
9.1
24.1
3.6
3.2
0.0
-0.3
-0.8
-1.6
-0.9
-0.16
-0.07
-0.05
Gangnam
2
2008
2009
13.5
27.6
0.5
-1.9
-0.1
-0.5
-1.2
-2.0
-1.1
-0.22
-0.03
0.01
3.2
19.0
8.3
9.4
0.1
-0.1
-0.4
-1.3
-0.7
-0.07
-0.12
-0.12
Gangbuk3
1. Weekly trends 2. Upscale area of southern Seoul Source: Kookmin Bank
3. Northern Seoul
The average rental prices continued to slide with lower demand due to the economic downturn. They fell 1.2 percent after slipping 1.4 percent in the previous month.
Nationwide apartment rental prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2005
2006
2007
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Jan 11
Jan 121
Jan 191
Nationwide
5.7
7.6
1.9
0.8
0.3
0.2
-0.4
-1.4
-1.2
-0.29
-0.26
-0.16
Seoul
6.2
11.5
2.2
-1.8
0.1
-0.2
-1.0
-2.7
-1.7
-0.42
-0.21
-0.16
Gangnam2
8.6
11.3
0.5
-3.6
-0.1
-0.6
-1.2
-2.9
-1.8
-0.44
-0.15
-0.10
Gangbuk
2.9
11.8
4.6
0.5
0.4
0.2
-0.7
-2.4
-1.5
-0.38
-0.30
-0.24
3
1. Weekly trends 2. Upscale area of southern Seoul Source: Kookmin Bank
2008
2009
3. Northern Seoul
Apartment sales transactions modestly increased from the previous month. They, however, stayed in a sluggish phase.
Apartment sales transactions 2006
Annual Annual 94
84
2008
Dec
Annual
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
76
74
80
70
88
97
82
85
84
63
61
68
54
57
Source: Korea Land Corporation
34
(Monthly average, thousand)
2007
February 2009
12-1 Real estate prices Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
12-2 Weekly apartment sales prices and monthly transaction volume Source: Kookmin Bank (weekly APT price trend) & Korea Land Corporation (monthly land trade trend)
12-3 Apartment prices by region Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
Economic Bulletin
35
12.2 Land market Nationwide land prices in December 2008 fell 2.72 percent month-on-month, expanding the sliding pace from the previous month when it turned to negative territory for the first time in eight years. Nationwide land prices of all 249 cities, counties and districts decreased for the first time since the second quarter of 1998 when land prices fell 9.49 percent. In particular, the Seoul metropolitan area, which maintained a higher land price increase until recently, witnessed a noticeable decline. Land prices in Seoul, Incheon, and in the Gyeonggi province dropped 3.48 percent, 3.74 percent, and 3.13 percent, respectively.
Land prices by region
(Percentage change from previous period)
2005
2007
2006
Annual Annual Annual Nationwide
4.98
5.61
3.88
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Nov
Dec Annual
0.96
0.79
0.91
1.15
1.23
1.46
1.18
-4.08
-1.44
-2.72
-0.31
Seoul
6.56
9.17
5.88
1.38
1.07
1.40
1.90
1.83
2.17
1.59
-6.34
-2.72
-3.48
-1.00
Gyeonggi
5.69
5.07
4.22
1.07
0.89
1.05
1.14
1.28
1.57
1.28
-4.28
-1.33
-3.13
-0.26
South Chungcheong
8.32
5.54
2.02
0.46
0.41
0.42
0.71
0.75
0.83
0.95
-2.60
-1.03
-1.77
-0.11
Nationwide land transactions in December increased modestly but remained weak.
Land sales transactions
(Monthly average, land lot, thousand)
2007
2008
Annual Dec Annual Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Nationwide
208
229
208
216
190
237
269
248
244
245
175
173
191
149
162
Seoul
33
27
26
24
24
32
41
36
38
34
18
20
23
14
13
Gyeonggi
49
50
45
44
40
50
61
58
55
57
38
37
36
28
31
North Chungcheong
9
11
9
10
9
10
11
10
9
11
9
9
9
7
7
South Chungcheong
11
12
12
10
12
15
13
15
15
14
12
10
11
10
10
36
February 2009
12-4 Land and consumer prices since 1970s Source: Korea Land Corporation (land prices) & Korea National Statistical Office (consumer prices)
12-5 Land prices by region Source: Korea Land Corporation (land price trend)
12-6 Land trade volume Source: Korea Land Corporation (land trade trend)
Economic Bulletin
37
13. Composite indexes of business cycle indicators The cyclical indicator of coincident composite index, a barometer of current economic conditions, decreased 2.7 points in December 2008 from the previous month, staying on a downward track for the eleventh straight month. All eight components of the index, i.e., the number of non-farm payroll employment (down 0.2%), mining and manufacturing production index (down 7.3%), manufacturing operation ratio index (down 6.7%), value of construction completed (down 4.2%), service activity index (down 0.4%), wholesale & retail sales index (down 1.7%), domestic shipment index (down 4.5%), and volume of imports (down 4.8%) decreased. Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (m-o-m, p) -0.2 (Jul 2008)
-0.3 (Aug)
-0.2 (Sep)
-0.8 (Oct)
-2.0 (Nov)
-2.7 (Dec)
The year-on-year leading composite index, which foresees future economic conditions, went down for the thirteenth month in a row in December with a month-on-month decrease of 0.6 percentage points. Three out of all components of the index, i.e., construction orders received, liquidity in the financial institutions and net barter terms of trade were up while other components such as ratio of job openings to job seekers, composite stock price index and capital goods imports significantly declined. Components of the leading composite index fell in Dec 2008 (m-o-m) Ratio of job openings to job seekers (-6.0%p), indicator of inventory cycle (-3.6%p), consumer expectations index (-4.6p), value of machinery orders received (-1.1%), capital goods imports (-12.8%), composite stock price index (-9.5%)
12 month smoothed change in leading composite index (m-o-m, %p) -0.6 (Aug 2008)
-0.3 (Sep)
-0.6 (Oct)
-1.2 (Nov)
-0.6 (Dec)
Leading composite index 112.8 (Jul 2008)
112.6 (Aug)
112.6 (Sep)
112.2 (Oct)
111.2 (Nov)
110.5 (Dec)
2008 Aug
Sep
Oct1
Nov1
Dec1
Coincident composite index (m-o-m, %)
0.1
0.2
-0.3
-1.5
-2.5
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index
99.4
99.2
98.4
96.4
93.7
(m-o-m, p)
-0.3
-0.2
-0.8
-2.0
-2.7
Leading composite index (m-o-m, %)
-0.2
0.0
-0.4
-0.9
-0.6
12 month smoothed change in leading composite index (%)
-0.5
-0.8
-1.4
-2.6
-3.2
(m-o-m, %p)
-0.6
-0.3
-0.6
-1.2
-0.6
1. Preliminary
38
February 2009
13-1 Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index Source: Korea National Statistical Office
13-2 Leading composite index Source: Korea National Statistical Office
13-3 Coincident and leading composite indexes Source: Korea National Statistical Office
Economic Bulletin
39
Policy Issues Growing a Qualified Workforce and Promoting R&D in the Service Industry - Service PROGRESS III -
The government announced “Service PROGRESS III to create jobs and improve growth infrastructure” at the Crisis Management Council (chaired by the Minister of Strategy and Finance) on January 14, 2009. The government has unveiled a series of packages called “Service PROGRESS” to improve the overall competitiveness of the service industry in Korea. “Service PROGRESS I”, revealed in April 2008, is concerned with balancing service accounts by investing in tourism and education. “Service PROGRESS II”, which emphasizes streamlining the regulatory system for the service industry as well as deregulation, was unveiled in September 2008. The following is “Service PROGRESS III”, which aims at nurturing human resources and supporting R&D in the service industry.
1. Nurturing a qualified workforce as required by corporations Training workforce To secure capable workforces, corporations can reflect their requirements on designing university curriculums. The idea is for corporations to become a main party in training a new workforce, with universities playing a supporting role. The government will grant tax cuts to corporations participating in work-based education programs on their in-kind investments
40
February 2009
as well as cash investments. Corporations will be responsible for 50 to 100 percent of total education costs, the specific percentage of which will be decided by corporations. A tax exemption will be given for 25 percent of corporate educational expenditures, up from the current 15 percent. According to the current regulations, a company with 200 employees or more can establish an in-house training center by itself. Only employees who have worked for 6 months or more for the company are allowed to enroll, and the academic year has to run from the first day of March to the last day of February the next year. This will be changed to allow a group of companies as a consortium to establish an in-house training center, where any employee regardless of their work period can enroll as long as they are working for a participating company, its sister companies, or affiliate companies. The term of the academic year will be decided by corporations. Technical education institutions will serve as education institutions for all, and will be allowed to use the word “school” in their names. They will be authorized to issue E-7 visas (3 year limit) to foreign instructors. Students enrolling at such schools are eligible for educational support: 2 million won for unemployed trainees, and tuition fees for those attending general high schools. While the 1st Industry-Academy Cooperation Project (2005~2008) was centered on colleges for science & technology, the 2nd Industry-Academy Cooperation Project (2009~2013) will include service industry-related colleges. An institution for evaluating college work-based education and issuing permits to colleges for offering such education will be established by 2010. Currently centered on manufacturing industries, the Small-to-medium Enterprise Personnel Support Act will also cover service industries through the revision scheduled for August 2009. Government support for technical high schools will be expanded to include service industry-related high schools such as those with design or information technology as their main curriculums.
Reinforcing job training in the service industry To provide more systematic job training, more than 50 percent of job analysis by the Human Resources Development Service of Korea will be made on service related jobs in 2009, while training and occupational standards, which form the basis of job training, will be set. The current system of ‘public job training’, which has its focus on manufacturing industries, will cover the service industry as well. 15 percent of the government budget for trainee support will be earmarked for the service industry. Polytech Institutes, where 68.1 percent of the classes are given on manufacturing industries and 19.1 percent on service industries, will be transformed and specialize in promising service industries such as design and medical services.
Economic Bulletin
41
More objective tools will be employed to evaluate training progression as well as job performance. Different types of national technical licenses will represent different capabilities of service workforces beginning December 2009. Various contests will be held to select the most proficient in each service area; for example, the best animation artist or the best photographer will be chosen through open contests.
2. Promoting research & development in the service industry The R&D related laws and systems focused on the manufacturing industry will be revised to better suit the needs of the service industry. The revision will be directed to also include the knowledge-based industry. The revision will facilitate R&D investments in the service industry, whether made by the government or private sector. To lay the foundation for service sector R&D, research institutions exclusively for the knowledge-based industry will be designated, young professional researchers will be offered military exemption, and E-7 visas for up to three years of stay will be given to foreign experts by research institutions, which will be legally authorized to issue the visas starting March 2009. The government will also increase its R&D investment in service industries. Currently, R&D investment accounts for one percent of the total R&D budget, but will at least be doubled by the end of 2012. New R&D projects will be laid out by 2010, and the current R&D projects will receive increased support as well. As Korea is greatly behind other nations in service sector R&D, the Korean government will support them by introducing new laws and tax measures.
3. Plans for the future Amending laws and adjusting budgets take time however, the Korean government will pursue as early implementation as possible. Out of the total 44 tasks, 20 tasks will be completed in the first half of 2009, with 17 carried out in the 2nd half. Seven tasks that require prerequisite processes will be worked out to see the results in 2010. Efforts to upgrade the service industry will continue, with “Service PROGRESS: NEXT� in 2009, which will emphasize private investments in education and medical services, and other promising services.
42
February 2009
The 5th Privatization Plan
The 5th plan is to restructure 273 affiliates of public institutions in order for the public firms to focus on their core businesses. This privatization is expected to generate proceeds of 4,600 billion won along with improved financial soundness. Public institutions have 330 affiliates in total. Of those 330 affiliates, 57 companies will be managed as previously announced in the four rounds of privatization plans: 31 privatizations, five mergers, two closings, and 19 restructurings to improve management efficiency. The 5th plan is laid out to examine the remaining 273 companies. Of the 273 affiliates, 130 affiliates including Korea Life Insurance, LG Powercom, Busan New Port, and Bexco will be sold to the private sector or liquidated. The remaining 142 affiliates may also be sold to the private sector if they are not profitable, or if private enterprises run the similar businesses more efficiently.
130 affiliates subject to privatization or liquidation 130 affiliates will be in the process of closing through liquidations, sell-offs, and mergers. 17 companies which were managed inefficiently will be liquidated, while 111 companies whose businesses overlap those in the private sector will be sold to private owners. Affiliates to be privatized by the 5th plan include Korea Life Insurance, LG Powercom, GM Daewoo Auto & Technology, Busan New Port, Bexco, and STX Energy. The amounts of shares held by public firms are listed in the table below.
Affiliate
Public company
Shares held by public company (%)
Shares held by public company (billion won)
49
1,361.5
Korea Life Insurance
Korea Deposit Insurance
LG Powercom
Korea Electric Power Corporation
43.1
258.8
GM Daewoo Auto & Technology
Korea Development Bank
27.9
213.2
Busan New Port
Korea Container Terminal Authority
9
44.5
Bexco
KOTRA
26
30.9
STX Energy
Korea Industrial Complex Corporation
24
15.0
Economic Bulletin
43
As of the end of 2007, the total amount of investment in the 130 affiliates, 3,100 billion won, exceeds the value of net assets, estimated to be more than 4,600 billion won. Korea’s government is planning to use the privatization proceeds to enhance national competitiveness, support the businesses of strategic national interests and improve the public sector’s financial soundness.
143 affiliates under examination The remaining 143 affiliates, in which the government has invested 2,700 billion won, will be examined, and the profitable ones will be kept under government’s management. For example, if the overseas subsidiaries of Korea Electric Power Corporation or Korea National Oil Corporation are expected to produce profits in construction and development, they will be maintained. However, if they have difficulties generating profits due to inefficient management, they will be closed immediately. Companies whose businesses cannot be replaced by those in the private sector, such as Busan North Port Redeveloping Co. Ltd. and Arirang TV Media, will be spun off to enhance the efficiency of their parent companies. In the case of the businesses for which private operations may be more efficient than public operations, they will be sold to private firms in a multi-phase process after examining the private firms’ capability to manage public businesses; the examples of such businesses are train station construction, near-station area development, road and port operations, and water resources management.
Plans for the future The Korean government will prevent public affiliates from mushrooming through regulation changes: The amount of shares is lowered for a mandatory consultation with concerned ministries and the Ministry of Finance and Strategy for public firms to invest in shares. Currently, companies with 30 percent or more shares held by public firms are required to have these consultations. According to the revision, however, affiliates in which public firms own the most shares, or significant amount of minority shares are obliged to have these consultations. Requirements for public firms’ investment in companies are stipulated in the revision.
44
February 2009
Economic News Briefing
Q4 GDP contracted 5.6% quarter-on-quarter (Advance) South Korea’s real GDP decreased by 5.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008 compared with the previous quarter, dragging down the annual growth rate of 2008 to 2.5 percent. In year-on-year terms, GDP fell 3.4 percent in the October-December period.
GDP by production and expenditure*
(Percentage change from previous period) 2007
Annual
Q1
Q2
20081
1
Q3
Q4
1.0 (4.0) 1.7 (4.9) 1.5 (5.1) 1.6 (5.7)
Annual
Q2
5.0
Agriculture, forestry and fishery
1.1
0.8
Manufacturing
6.5
0.4
3.1
2.5
2.9
3.3
0.7
Construction
1.8
0.2
-0.8
0.6
1.0
-2.0
-0.5
Services3 Private consumption
4.8 4.5
1.1 1.6
1.4 0.9
1.5 1.3
0.8 0.8
2.3 0.5
0.5 0.4
0.5 -0.2
-1.0
0.9
-1.1
2.5
Q1
GDP
3.5
Q3
Q4
0.8 (5.8) 0.8 (4.8) 0.5 (3.8) -5.6 (-3.4) 0.5
2.0
-1.0
1.7 (4.3)
2.2
0.3
-12.0 (-9.2)
-2.4
0.9
-2.9 (-4.7)
0.2 0.1
-1.2 (0.0) -4.8 (-4.4) -16.1 (-14.0)
Facility investment
7.6
4.5
1.6
-1.8
2.1
-2.0
-0.4
0.9
2.1
Construction investment
1.2
-0.3
-1.2
0.2
1.2
-2.7
-1.4
-1.0
0.0
-4.0 (-6.1)
Goods exports4
12.0
3.3
4.3
1.8
7.4
4.6
-1.8
4.3
-1.9
-11.9 (-11.5)
Goods imports4
10.9
4.0
5.9
-2.4
9.9
3.9
-1.9
4.2
-1.6
-13.0 (-12.6)
GDI
3.9
-0.3
1.4
1.3
0.3
-2.1
-2.1
1.4
-3.1
-2.9 (-5.6)
*At 2000 constant prices, seasonally adjusted terms 1. Preliminary 2. Figures in parenthesis denote percentage changes from the same period in the previous year in original terms. 3. Wholesale & retail sales, hotels & restaurants, transportation & storage, communication services, financial & insurance services, real estate, business services, public administration, defense & social security, educational services, healthcare & social welfare services and other services are included. 4. FOB basis
Economic Bulletin
45
On the production side, overall sectors except for agricultural, forestry and fisheries shifted to a sharp decline in output. In particular, the manufacturing sector contracted by 12.0 percent quarter-on-quarter after increasing 0.3 percent in the previous quarter, amid production cuts in semiconductors, steels, and automobiles. On the expenditure side, exports of goods declined at a faster pace of 11.9 percent while private consumption and facility investments fell deeper into a slump by slipping 4.8 percent and 16.1 percent, respectively.
President replaces key economic officials to better fight the downturn The new Minister of Strategy and Finance, Yoon Jeung-hyun, vowed to put top priority on economic recovery in his inaugural speech on February 10, 2009. President Lee Myung-bak appointed Yoon, a former chairman of the Financial Supervisory Commission, as the Finance Minister on January 19, 2009 as part of a cabinet reshuffling process focusing on revamping the government’s economic team with a view to reviving the economy. In a shakeup which replaced 4 minister-level and 15 vice minister-level officials, President Lee also named Chin Dong-soo, President of the Export-Import Bank of Korea, Chairman of the Financial Services Commission and Yoon Jin-sik, Chairman of the Korea Investment Holdings, Senior Presidential Secretary for economic affairs. Hyun In-taek, a professor of political science and international relations at Korea University, was nominated to head the Ministry of Unification, and Kwon Tae-sin, Vice Secretary of the Prime Minister’s Office was appointed as Minister of the Prime Minister’s Office. In his inaugural speech, Finance Minister Yoon Jeung-hyun promised to make every effort to revitalize the economy by boosting domestic demand, creating jobs, normalizing financial markets, and enhancing the economic and social safety net. He also stressed that strengthening economic fundamentals and nurturing growth engines are essential for the Korean economy to take a further leap in the post-crisis period.
Inward FDI rebounded in 2008 Amid the current global economic downturn, foreign direct investment (FDI) into Korea climbed for the first time in four years. Inbound FDI in 2008 was up 11.3 percent from the previous year to record US$11.71 billion.
46
February 2009
(Notification basis, US$ billion) 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Inbound FDI
12.80
11.57
11.24
10.51
11.71
(y-o-y, %)
97.7
-9.6
-2.8
-6.5
11.3
< Influx of FDI into Korea >
The government’s effort to pursue business-friendly policies, including a three-year plan to promote foreign investment, facilitated the inflow of foreign capital. Other contributors included increased investment from Japan and the EU, which offset the decline in FDI from the US. The manufacturing sector saw double digit growth of 11.5 percent to amount to US$3.0 billion, while FDI in the service sector rose 10.2 percent to US$8.39 billion led by the financial and insurance sector. Greenfield investments totaled US$7.28 billion, representing 62.2 percent of total FDI into Korea, and FDI through mergers and acquisitions (M&A) surged 78.2 percent to US$4.43 billion. Meanwhile, South Korea’s overseas direct investment in 2008 increased 18.1 percent from the previous year to US$32.79 billion, driven by large conglomerates’ rush to develop resources. By business, investments in the mining sector surpassed those in the manufacturing sector. By country, FDI outflows to Iraq for oil field development surged, while investments into China and Vietman turned to a decrease. (Notification basis, US$ billion, %) 2007
2008
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
FDI outflow
27.76
32.79
8.11
6.77
8.30
9.61
(y-o-y, %)
49.6
18.1
107.9
5.4
76.5
-24.5
Economic Bulletin
47
IMF predicts S. Korean economy will pick up in the 2nd quarter South Korea will be the fastest to recover from the current global economic downturn, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on February 2. The IMF predicts the Korean economy will contract 4 percent in 2009 before rebounding in 2010, due to a sharp decrease in exports and bleak domestic demand amid the global economic downturn.
However, the IMF forecasts South Korea to begin its recovery from the second quarter of this year and to grow 4.2 percent in 2010, marking the largest turnaround among world economies. The IMF added that the outlook for the South Korean economy is fundamentally optimistic in the mid- to long-term, even though the economy is expected to suffer from global economic turmoil in 2009.
Reflecting the deteriorated external and internal economic conditions, a government-funded think tank, Korea Development Institute (KDI) in January 2009 revised down its 2009 growth forecast for the Korean economy to 0.7 percent from its earlier estimate of 3.3 percent. More recently, the new Minister of Strategy and Finance, Yoon Jeung-Hyun, also revised downward the governmentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s growth forecast for this year from around 3 percent to around minus 2 percent in a press conference held after his inaugural ceremony on February 10.
Capital Market and Financial Investment Business Act in effect to reform market The Capital Market and Financial Investment Business Act, which was promulgated in August 2007, went into effect as of February 4, 2008, replacing six separate laws governing the financial services sector: the Securities and Exchange Act, the Futures Trading Act, the Indirect Investment Asset Management Business Act, the Trust Business Act, the Merchant Banks Act, and the Securities Futures Exchange Act. The new law was drafted to reform Koreaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s financial sector with the aim of increasing competitiveness and efficiency by removing barriers that prevented consolidation in the non-banking financial sector. Under the Capital Market and Financial Investment Business Act, financial businesses categorized on the basis of business sectors are consolidated into financial investment services, which are reclassified by function: dealing, brokerage, asset management, discretionary investment, advisory and trust business. Also, financial investment companies are allowed to conduct and handle any type of financial investment products, as long as investors are properly protected.
48
February 2009
Deregulation accelerates through “Sunset Law” South Korea will accelerate its deregulation efforts by applying the “Sunset Law” to all government regulations. On January 29, the Presidential Council on National Competitiveness under President Lee Myung-bak’s chairmanship announced plans to expand the sunset provision to all types of government regulations, whose effectiveness will be automatically lost or whose feasibility should be reviewed again when their validity expires. The change will directly impact some 5,000 existing government regulations and enhance the rationality and transparency of administrative procedures.
Seoul eases regulations on foreign schools On January 28, the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology enacted a new set of Regulations for the Establishment and Operation of Foreign Schools and Pre-primary Education Institutes. Under the new law, international schools in South Korea will be allowed to increase their admission quota for Korean nationals up to 50 percent of the entire student body, which is to take effect in March 2010 starting with the lowest grade year. In addition, Korean students who have lived abroad for over three years will be eligible to apply for foreign schools in South Korea. The government will also ease regulations on the establishment of foreign schools in Korea, allowing non-profit foreign entities and South Korea’s private school foundations to set up foreign schools.
S. Korea ranked sixth in “Global Innovation Index” South Korea ranked 6th in the Global Innovation Index of the World for 2008-2009, according to INSEAD, a graduate business school based in France. Korea jumped to 6th place from 19th the last time in the global index drawn up by INSEAD, emerging as the most innovative country in Asia after Singapore. In the category for having a knowledge-based economy that supports innovation, Korea ranked first. Overall, the US topped the list despite the economic turmoil, followed by Germany, Sweden, the UK and Singapore.
Economic Bulletin
49
50
February 2009
Statistical Appendices Tables & Figures 1. National accounts 2. Production, shipment and inventory 3. Production capacity and operation ratio 4. Consumer goods sales index 5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment, and estimated facility investment index 7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received 8. Composite indexes of business cycle indicators and BSI 9. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates
Economic Bulletin
51
1. National accounts (year-on-year change, %, 2000 constant prices) Real GDP Period
Gross fixed capital formation
Final consumption expenditure
Agri., fores. & fisheries
Manufacturing 7.6
7.6
6.6
5.3
7.5 -1.2
Construction
Facilities
2002
7.0
-3.5
2003
3.1
-5.3
5.5
-0.3
4.0
7.9
2004
4.7
9.2
11.1
0.4
2.1
1.1
3.8
2005
4.2
0.7
7.1
3.9
2.4
-0.2
5.7
2006
5.0
-1.5
8.5
4.8
3.6
-0.1
7.8
2007P
5.0
1.1
6.5
4.7
4.0
1.2
7.6
2008P
2.5
3.5
3.3
1.3
-1.9
-2.7
-2.0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007P
2008P
I
6.5
6.7
5.2
9.4
7.7
11.0
3.3
II
7.0
-2.7
6.2
8.5
7.3
6.0
8.0
III
6.8
-3.2
7.4
7.3
2.4
-2.4
9.1
IV
7.5
-5.5
11.4
5.3
9.1
8.4
9.6
I
3.8
-3.3
5.8
1.2
4.7
7.7
2.3
II
2.2
0.5
3.3
-0.6
4.2
7.9
-0.4
III
2.3
-7.8
4.2
-1.0
2.7
7.7
-4.6
IV
4.1
-6.9
8.6
-0.9
4.3
8.3
-2.0
I
5.4
10.1
11.9
-0.4
2.4
4.9
-0.1
II
5.7
4.2
13.6
0.7
4.7
3.8
6.4
III
4.7
4.3
11.7
0.1
2.9
1.0
6.8
IV
3.3
13.3
7.7
1.3
-1.1
-3.3
2.4
I
2.9
-0.1
5.4
2.0
0.5
-3.3
3.8
II
3.4
3.1
5.1
3.9
2.1
1.1
3.1
III
4.8
1.9
7.5
4.8
2.2
-0.1
5.0
IV
5.5
-0.5
10.1
4.9
4.3
0.4
10.8
I
6.3
2.8
10.1
5.4
4.2
1.1
7.1
II
5.2
-2.2
9.6
4.6
0.2
-5.3
7.5
III
5.0
-4.1
9.0
4.7
5.1
0.2
11.4
IV
4.2
-0.9
5.6
4.6
4.9
3.6
5.4
I
4.0
5.8
3.8
4.5
7.2
3.7
10.9
II
4.9
1.1
6.1
4.9
5.5
1.6
11.0
III
5.1
3.5
6.3
4.7
1.3
-0.1
2.3
IV
5.7
-0.7
9.5
4.8
2.9
0.4
6.5
I
5.8
2.0
9.3
3.5
0.5
-1.1
1.4
II
4.8
4.4
8.5
2.7
0.1
-1.2
0.7
III
3.8
1.4
6.3
1.7
1.4
-1.3
4.7
IV
-3.4
4.3
-9.2
-2.4
-8.4
-6.1
-14.0
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
52
February 2009
Growth rate by economic activity
Growth rate by expenditure on GDP
Economic Bulletin
53
2. Production, shipment and inventory See graphs 6-1, 6-3, 7-1, 7-2 & 7-3 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
Production index
2006 2007 2008P
Y-o-Y change (%)
Shipment index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Inventory index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Service production index
Y-o-Y change (%)
108.4 115.8 119.1
8.4 6.8 2.8
107.6 115.2 117.7
7.6 7.1 2.2
111.0 117.3 125.5
9.3 5.7 7.0
105.5 112.3 115.9
5.5 6.4 3.2
2006
I II III IV
105.3 108.1 106.4 113.8
10.5 9.0 9.9 4.8
104.2 107.6 106.0 112.8
8.8 8.1 9.4 4.5
108.6 110.0 109.5 111.0
9.3 11.7 11.1 9.3
101.5 105.0 105.2 110.4
6.4 6.0 4.7 5.1
2007
I II III IV
109.5 114.8 112.7 126.1
4.0 6.2 5.9 10.8
109.5 115.0 111.7 124.5
5.1 6.9 5.4 10.4
114.0 114.3 112.4 117.3
5.0 3.9 2.6 5.7
107.0 111.4 112.8 117.9
5.4 6.1 7.2 6.8
2008
I II III IVP
121.1 124.7 119.0 111.6
10.6 8.6 5.6 -11.5
119.2 122.3 117.6 111.8
8.9 6.3 5.3 -10.2
124.3 133.2 132.2 125.5
9.0 16.5 17.6 7.0
113.8 116.5 116.0 117.5
6.4 4.6 2.8 -0.3
2006
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
103.8 100.4 111.8 107.0 109.5 107.9 99.8 104.3 115.0 110.8 118.5 112.0
5.6 18.7 8.6 7.8 9.8 9.3 1.5 10.0 17.9 4.8 7.0 2.1
101.8 99.7 111.1 106.6 108.8 107.5 98.5 104.8 114.6 109.3 117.0 112.0
4.2 15.7 7.3 6.8 9.9 7.9 1.0 9.5 17.5 4.1 6.9 2.6
107.0 106.6 108.6 107.5 110.1 110.0 112.5 109.6 109.5 109.6 110.2 111.0
4.6 6.8 9.3 7.0 7.6 11.7 11.6 11.8 11.1 11.2 10.6 9.3
101.8 96.8 106.0 104.3 106.3 104.3 102.4 105.0 108.3 106.0 108.7 116.4
7.0 6.4 6.0 6.5 6.4 4.7 2.3 5.1 6.7 3.9 5.7 5.6
2007
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
112.7 100.2 115.5 113.6 115.7 115.0 113.3 113.5 111.4 128.4 127.5 122.5
8.6 -0.2 3.3 6.2 5.7 6.6 13.5 8.8 -3.1 15.9 7.6 9.4
110.2 101.6 116.7 114.4 115.9 114.8 112.4 112.3 110.4 126.1 125.9 121.6
8.3 1.9 5.0 7.3 6.6 6.8 14.1 7.2 -3.7 15.4 7.6 8.6
118.5 115.5 114.0 111.8 114.1 114.3 115.3 115.3 112.4 114.7 114.9 117.3
10.7 8.3 5.0 4.0 3.6 3.9 2.5 5.2 2.6 4.7 4.3 5.7
106.1 103.2 111.7 109.6 112.2 112.3 112.2 113.1 113.0 115.1 115.6 123.1
4.2 6.6 5.4 5.1 5.6 7.7 9.6 7.7 4.3 8.6 6.3 5.8
2008
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11P 12P
125.3 110.5 127.4 125.7 125.7 122.6 123.2 115.6 118.2 125.5 109.6 99.7
11.2 10.3 10.3 10.7 8.6 6.6 8.7 1.9 6.1 -2.3 -14.0 -18.6
121.2 109.4 126.9 124.1 123.1 119.8 121.7 114.3 116.9 123.4 109.1 102.9
10.0 7.7 8.7 8.5 6.2 4.4 8.3 1.8 5.9 -2.2 -13.3 -15.4
124.0 124.6 124.3 125.2 129.1 133.2 132.2 132.0 132.2 134.9 133.3 122.5
4.6 7.9 9.0 12.0 13.1 16.5 14.7 14.5 17.6 17.6 16.0 7.0
114.0 109.3 118.1 116.2 117.6 115.6 116.6 114.7 116.7 116.8 113.7 121.9
7.4 5.9 5.7 6.0 4.8 2.9 3.9 1.4 3.3 1.5 -1.6 -1.0
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
54
February 2009
3. Production capacity and operation ratio See graph 6-2
Period
2006 2007 2008P
Y-o-Y change (%)
Operation ratio index (2005=100)
Y-o-Y change (%)
Average operation ratio (%)
104.1 109.5 114.9
4.1 5.2 4.9
100.3 100.5 97.0
0.3 0.2 -3.5
80.0 80.3 77.4
Production capacity index (2005=100)
2006
I II III IV
102.9 103.6 104.0 105.8
4.8 4.2 3.7 3.6
99.3 101.9 97.9 102.0
2.4 0.9 1.3 -3.2
81.0 79.6 79.1 80.3
2007
I II III IV
107.3 108.2 110.0 112.5
4.3 4.4 5.8 6.3
97.3 102.8 96.3 105.6
-2.0 0.9 -1.6 3.5
79.4 80.7 80.0 81.0
2008
I II III IVP
113.6 114.9 115.4 115.8
5.9 6.2 4.9 2.9
99.0 102.7 95.7 90.7
1.7 -0.1 -0.6 -14.1
81.1 81.0 78.5 69.1
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
102.7 102.8 103.3 103.3 103.8 103.8 103.7 103.9 104.4 105.4 105.8 106.1
4.9 4.8 4.9 4.3 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5
97.3 95.0 105.6 100.8 103.0 101.8 91.6 95.3 106.9 99.8 107.3 98.8
-3.4 11.5 0.4 -0.8 2.1 1.3 -7.5 1.2 10.8 -4.5 -0.6 -4.6
82.1 80.4 80.6 79.4 79.1 80.2 75.0 80.1 82.1 81.4 80.7 78.8
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.1 107.3 107.6 107.7 108.1 108.7 109.4 110.0 110.6 112.2 112.4 112.8
4.3 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.7 5.5 5.9 5.9 6.5 6.2 6.3
98.8 88.4 103.7 101.6 104.0 102.7 98.4 96.6 93.8 109.4 107.4 99.9
2.6 -6.9 -1.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 7.4 1.4 -12.3 9.6 0.1 1.1
79.1 79.7 79.3 80.1 81.0 80.9 80.5 81.0 78.6 81.6 80.6 80.9
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11P 12P
113.5 113.4 113.9 114.3 115.0 115.3 115.3 115.3 115.6 115.7 115.7 115.9
6.0 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.4 6.1 5.4 4.8 4.5 3.1 2.9 2.7
103.0 89.3 104.6 104.1 103.0 100.9 100.2 92.5 94.5 103.7 89.2 79.2
3.2 1.0 0.9 2.5 -1.0 -1.8 1.8 -4.2 0.7 -5.2 -16.9 -20.7
81.8 80.3 81.1 82.2 80.3 80.5 79.7 78.5 77.3 77.0 67.9 62.5
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
Economic Bulletin
55
4. Consumer goods sales index See graphs 2-2, 2-3, 2-4 & 2-5 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
Consumer goods sales index
2006 2007 2008P
Y-o-Y change (%)
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Semi-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
104.1 109.6 110.0
4.1 5.3 0.4
111.2 123.4 124.9
11.2 11.0 1.2
103.0 106.0 105.0
3.0 2.9 -0.9
101.7 105.5 106.1
1.7 3.7 0.6
2006
I II III IV
100.9 104.2 100.3 110.8
4.7 5.6 3.1 3.0
102.0 110.2 113.2 119.4
13.8 11.8 11.7 8.1
96.9 105.1 90.7 119.2
3.7 3.4 2.7 2.2
102.2 101.4 99.1 103.9
1.8 3.9 -0.2 1.2
2007
I II III IV
106.7 108.6 107.4 115.8
5.7 4.2 7.1 4.5
118.0 123.6 124.6 127.6
15.7 12.2 10.1 6.9
100.4 107.4 93.6 122.7
3.6 2.2 3.2 2.9
104.6 103.1 106.1 108.1
2.3 1.7 7.1 4.0
2008
I Il III IVP
110.9 111.3 108.6 109.4
3.9 2.5 1.1 -5.5
127.7 133.0 124.4 114.5
8.2 7.6 -0.2 -10.3
105.8 105.7 95.1 113.4
5.4 -1.6 1.6 -7.6
106.2 104.8 107.7 105.7
1.5 1.6 1.5 -2.2
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
105.1 93.6 104.1 102.8 106.0 103.9 96.8 98.4 105.8 106.4 109.7 116.4
9.5 0.5 3.9 5.0 6.1 5.7 -0.6 4.7 5.3 4.2 3.6 1.5
97.1 99.1 110.0 105.7 110.1 114.7 107.3 112.9 119.4 110.8 122.3 125.2
9.0 20.0 13.3 9.9 11.9 13.3 -2.3 13.0 26.6 8.8 10.6 5.1
98.2 90.7 102.0 107.8 110.0 97.6 91.3 79.5 101.3 111.3 119.2 127.2
4.4 3.0 4.2 3.8 4.1 2.4 1.9 3.0 3.2 -1.5 4.7 3.2
111.2 92.6 102.7 99.6 102.7 102.0 94.8 100.4 102.2 102.7 100.7 108.4
11.8 -6.8 0.3 3.5 4.6 3.8 -0.7 1.9 -1.7 5.0 0.0 -1.0
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
106.2 103.5 110.3 106.9 111.5 107.5 105.4 104.1 112.6 113.4 114.5 119.4
1.0 10.6 6.0 4.0 5.2 3.5 8.9 5.8 6.4 6.6 4.4 2.6
117.3 109.7 126.8 119.5 125.7 125.7 128.9 125.4 119.4 121.6 129.3 131.9
20.8 10.7 15.3 13.1 14.2 9.6 20.1 11.1 0.0 9.7 5.7 5.4
98.9 95.1 107.3 108.7 112.5 101.0 93.8 81.4 105.5 117.3 122.5 128.3
0.7 4.9 5.2 0.8 2.3 3.5 2.7 2.4 4.1 5.4 2.8 0.9
104.7 104.4 104.8 101.0 105.4 102.8 100.7 104.8 112.8 108.4 105.3 110.7
-5.8 12.7 2.0 1.4 2.6 0.8 6.2 4.4 10.4 5.6 4.6 2.1
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11P 12P
111.1 106.5 115.1 112.7 114.8 106.4 109.5 105.6 110.6 109.2 107.9 111.1
4.6 2.9 4.4 5.4 3.0 -1.0 3.9 1.4 -1.8 -3.7 -5.8 -7.0
125.9 116.1 141.0 137.6 135.4 126.1 138.2 120.3 114.7 122.4 108.2 112.8
7.3 5.8 11.2 15.1 7.7 0.3 7.2 -4.1 -3.9 0.7 -16.3 -14.5
107.8 100.9 108.6 107.4 109.5 100.1 97.5 88.8 99.0 111.5 118.0 110.7
9.0 6.1 1.2 -1.2 -2.7 -0.9 3.9 9.1 -6.2 -4.9 -3.7 -13.7
106.4 104.9 107.3 104.8 108.6 100.9 102.7 106.5 113.7 102.9 103.6 110.6
1.6 0.5 2.4 3.8 3.0 -1.8 2.0 1.7 0.8 -5.1 -1.6 -0.1
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
56
February 2009
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index See graph 2-6
Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2005=100) Y-o-Y change (%)
Period
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Consumer sentiment index
2007
112.7
5.7
124.7
13.0
107.9
2.8
-
2008P
115.2
2.2
128.2
2.8
109.9
1.9
-
110.6
7.9
119.3
17.1
107.2
4.4
-
2007
2008
I II
110.8
7.6
122.6
15.1
106.0
4.3
-
III
111.2
2.3
123.2
9.6
106.3
-0.8
-
IV
118.3
5.5
133.8
10.8
112.2
3.3
-
I
117.3
6.1
133.9
12.2
110.6
3.2
-
II
116.7
5.3
138.3
12.8
108.0
1.9
-
III
114.6
3.1
125.4
1.8
110.2
3.7
-
IVP
112.1
-5.2
115.4
-13.8
110.8
-1.2
-
2007 1
114.3
10.5
117.3
21.2
113.1
6.7
-
2
103.8
7.5
112.9
14.0
100.1
4.6
-
3
113.8
6.0
127.6
16.0
108.3
1.9
-
4
111.2
9.7
119.5
19.1
107.9
5.9
-
5
112.7
8.5
125.5
18.4
107.5
4.3
-
6
108.4
4.6
122.7
8.3
102.6
2.9
-
7
109.6
9.9
124.5
23.8
103.6
4.2
-
8
112.6
5.7
124.5
13.5
107.8
2.5
-
9
111.3
-7.1
120.7
-4.8
107.6
-8.0
-
10
121.4
11.6
137.0
17.4
115.2
9.1
-
11
117.2
2.4
132.8
7.5
111.0
0.2
-
12
116.4
2.9
131.5
7.6
110.3
0.7
-
2008 1
124.2
8.7
132.8
13.2
120.8
6.8
-
2
106.6
2.7
123.5
9.4
99.8
-0.3
-
3
121.0
6.3
145.3
13.9
111.2
2.7
-
4
120.5
8.4
145.5
21.8
110.5
2.4
-
5
116.9
3.7
138.7
10.5
108.1
0.6
-
6
112.7
4.0
130.6
6.4
105.5
2.8
-
7
119.5
9.0
138.3
11.1
112.0
8.1
84
8
112.3
-0.3
120.4
-3.3
109.0
1.1
96
9
111.9
0.5
117.4
-2.7
109.7
2.0
96
10
120.0
-1.2
129.6
-5.4
116.2
0.9
88
11P
107.2
-8.5
111.6
-16.0
105.4
-5.0
84
12P
109.2
-6.2
105.0
-20.2
110.9
0.5
81
-
-
-
-
-
-
84
2009 1
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office & The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
57
6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment and estimated facility investment index See graph 3-2 Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant prices) Period
2007 2008P
Estimated facility investment index (2000=100)
Domestic machinery shipment excluding ship (2005=100)
Total
Public
Private
34,143 32,316
2,205 2,312
31,938 30,005
17,424 14,695
126.5 122.6
114.0 114.0
Manufacturing
2007
I II III IV
8,145 7,849 8,139 10,012
342 292 484 1,087
7,803 7,556 7,655 8,924
3,873 3,825 4,257 5,470
127.0 130.7 118.2 130.0
109.8 119.3 106.3 120.5
2008
I ll III IVP
10,197 8,541 7,520 6,059
372 536 354 1,049
9,825 8,005 7,165 5,009
5,429 3,667 3,394 2,205
125.9 130.8 125.4 108.2
111.2 120.2 113.1 111.4
2007 7 8 9 10 11 12
2,613 2,425 3,101 3,735 3,234 3,043
170 128 186 89 217 781
2,442 2,297 2,916 3,646 3,017 2,262
1,239 1,115 1,902 2,481 1,846 1,144
120.1 122.4 112.1 121.8 129.2 139.0
111.0 104.9 102.9 112.9 120.0 128.6
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11P 12P
3,810 3,044 3,343 2,914 2,675 2,952 3,153 2,330 2,037 2,371 1,813 1,874
149 68 155 95 90 351 179 87 88 399 207 444
3,661 2,976 3,188 2,819 2,585 2,601 2,974 2,243 1,949 1,972 1,607 1,430
2,197 1,723 1,510 1,302 1,101 1,264 1,392 1,114 887 939 668 598
119.4 118.0 140.3 134.6 127.3 130.5 132.0 124.2 120.1 112.4 106.6 105.5
105.7 102.6 125.2 119.3 121.8 119.4 119.3 107.3 112.7 111.3 108.0 115.0
21.1 -5.4
-11.2 4.8
31.9 -15.7
8.6 -3.1
2.9 0.0
2007 2008P
Y-o-Y change (%) 24.2 -6.1
2007
I II III IV
18.9 7.1 19.1 39.3
13.9 -47.7 -26.9 12.9
19.1 11.6 24.0 43.4
13.2 7.7 37.6 74.4
12.8 11.9 0.7 9.2
5.9 2.4 -1.7 4.8
2008
I ll III IVP
25.2 8.8 -7.6 -39.5
8.8 83.4 -26.8 -3.5
25.9 5.9 -6.4 -43.9
40.2 -4.1 -20.3 -59.7
-0.9 0.1 6.1 -16.8
1.3 0.8 6.4 -7.6
2007 7 8 9 10 11 12
35.3 5.1 19.5 42.5 46.7 28.8
117.5 -46.7 -45.9 -85.1 174.0 174.9
31.8 11.1 29.4 80.3 42.0 8.8
41.1 9.4 59.0 140.5 81.9 4.9
2.2 3.5 -3.7 7.0 10.4 10.1
9.5 -2.0 -11.1 8.2 3.4 3.2
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11P 12P
44.4 8.3 24.1 17.9 3.0 6.3 20.7 -3.9 -34.3 -36.5 -43.9 -38.4
67.8 -54.7 50.6 1.3 -1.5 228.1 5.3 -31.8 -52.7 348.0 -4.7 -43.2
43.5 11.8 23.0 18.5 3.1 -2.6 21.8 -2.4 -33.2 -45.9 -46.7 -36.8
69.8 23.9 27.0 6.8 -8.6 -9.8 12.3 -0.1 -53.3 -62.1 -63.8 -47.8
-1.8 -1.9 0.9 -1.9 -2.1 4.4 9.9 1.5 7.1 -7.7 -17.5 -24.1
1.7 0.4 1.5 4.6 -0.6 -1.6 7.5 2.3 9.5 -1.4 -10.0 -10.6
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
58
February 2009
7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received See graphs 4-2 & 4-3
(current prices, billion won)
Period
2007 2008P
Type of order
Type of order
Private
Domestic construction orders received (total)
Public
Private
25,096 26,739
54,476 55,549
108,559 99,663
27,454 30,462
75,285 63,803
Value of construction completed (total)
Public
82,950 87,019
2007
I II III IV
17,306 20,878 20,183 24,582
4,940 6,345 6,103 7,708
11,783 13,723 13,280 15,690
20,678 26,839 21,768 39.274
5,683 5,025 4,462 12,285
14,893 19,649 15,740 25,002
2008
I ll III IVP
18,314 22,238 22,419 24,047
5,279 6,570 6,506 8,383
12,128 14,377 14,756 14,288
19,868 25,193 16,794 37,808
6,820 5,961 4,607 13,075
12,661 18,499 10,626 22,016
2007
7 8 9 10 11 12
6,597 6,759 6,829 7,364 7,882 9,337
1,963 1,953 2,185 2,075 2,432 3,201
4,381 4,542 4,357 4,967 5,094 5,629
6,060 6,586 9,122 10,691 12,311 16,272
1,491 1,354 1,616 3,286 3,694 5,304
3,685 4,874 7,181 7,094 7,792 10,117
2008
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11P 12P
6,090 5,480 6,745 7,033 7,336 7,869 7,269 7,312 7,838 7,741 7,779 8,528
1,721 1,519 2,040 1,967 2,224 2,379 2,031 2,139 2,336 2,498 2,572 3,312
4,074 3,692 4,362 4,627 4,732 5,018 4,825 4,822 5,109 4,819 4,743 4,726
5,570 5,931 8,367 7,646 8,432 9,115 5,274 6,084 5,436 8,132 7,954 21,772
1,619 1,894 3,306 1,715 2,474 1,772 1,360 1,505 1,742 2,443 3,082 7,550
3,904 3,820 4,937 5,745 5,780 6,973 3,386 4,363 2,877 4,780 4,567 12,669
6.6 4.9
8.4 6.5
19.3 -8.2
34.2 11.0
13.1 -15.3
2007 2008P
Y-o-Y change (%) 4.5 2.0
2007
I II III IV
7.9 6.0 4.4 8.0
21.1 12.2 3.0 2.8
3.1 2.3 3.6 8.4
26.3 26.3 -5.6 29.5
49.3 21.2 7.3 47.2
21.8 17.0 -12.9 28.6
2008
I ll III IVP
5.8 6.5 11.1 -2.2
6.9 3.5 6.6 8.8
2.9 4.8 11.1 -8.9
-3.9 -6.1 -22.8 -3.7
20.0 18.6 3.3 6.4
-15.0 -5.9 -32.5 -11.9
2007
7 8 9 10 11 12
13.2 8.6 -6.3 8.8 5.9 9.2
14.9 5.0 -7.3 -4.6 8.8 3.7
10.6 8.2 -6.5 13.0 2.8 9.8
-14.9 13.4 -9.8 103.8 36.3 1.4
51.1 72.5 -32.3 104.2 32.1 34.6
-38.8 6.0 -3.7 102.5 27.7 2.8
2008
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11P 12P
10.8 3.3 3.8 4.3 7.7 7.4 10.2 8.2 14.8 5.1 -1.3 -8.7
16.8 -1.0 5.5 2.4 5.0 3.2 3.5 9.5 6.9 20.4 5.8 3.5
5.7 2.5 0.8 2.5 6.1 5.7 10.1 6.2 17.2 -3.0 -6.9 -16.0
-13.1 -6.2 5.3 -2.5 18.8 -23.4 -13.0 -7.6 -40.4 -23.9 -35.4 33.5
3.6 3.5 44.3 -4.1 52.6 9.7 -8.8 11.2 7.8 -25.6 -16.6 42.3
-19.0 -14.9 -11.6 0.2 18.2 -22.7 -8.1 -10.5 -59.9 -32.6 -41.4 25.2
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
Economic Bulletin
59
8. Composite indexes of business cycle indicators and BSI See graphs 13-1, 13-2 & 13-3
Period
Leading index (2005=100)
Y-o-Y change (%)
Coincident index (2005=100)
Cycle of coincident index (2005=100)
BSI (actual)
BSI (outlook)
2006 1
104.1
7.9
104.0
100.3
95.4
102.6
2
104.1
7.1
104.2
100.0
90.5
102.4
3
104.1
5.8
104.7
100.1
111.5
118.9
4
104.2
5.4
104.9
99.9
99.8
112.7
5
104.4
5.1
105.3
99.9
94.1
110.7
6
104.7
5.3
105.6
99.7
94.2
98.6
7
104.8
4.6
105.1
98.8
79.1
94.2
8
105.2
4.3
105.6
98.9
85.9
93.4
9
106.0
4.4
106.5
99.3
99.4
107.7
10
106.9
5.0
108.3
100.6
99.4
103.5
11
107.6
5.0
109.1
100.9
103.7
104.3
12
108.0
4.4
109.3
100.6
100.4
101.4
2007 1
108.5
4.2
109.4
100.3
85.6
96.5
2
109.3
5.0
109.8
100.2
87.5
93.4
3
109.7
5.4
110.2
100.2
109.4
112.3
4
110.5
6.0
110.8
100.3
105.8
107.7
5
110.8
6.1
111.4
100.3
104.1
110.9
6
111.7
6.7
112.2
100.6
100.2
105.6
7
112.5
7.3
113.0
100.9
95.8
99.3
8
113.3
7.7
113.6
101.1
94.4
102.5
9
114.0
7.5
113.7
100.7
101.5
111.8
10
114.8
7.4
114.3
100.8
108.3
116.3
11
115.5
7.3
114.8
100.8
106.0
112.4
12
115.8
7.2
115.8
101.2
98.9
103.4
2008 1
115.1
6.1
116.6
101.5
95.2
103.0
2
114.3
4.6
116.7
101.2
95.6
94.8
3
113.8
3.7
116.9
100.9
101.1
102.1
4
114.0
3.2
116.9
100.5
101.7
98.1
5
114.1
3.0
117.3
100.4
98.1
104.7
6
113.6
1.7
117.3
99.9
79.1
95.3
7
112.8
0.3
117.5
99.7
80.8
83.2
8
112.6
-0.6
117.6
99.4
83.1
80.8
9
112.6
-1.2
117.8
99.2
76.8
98.3
10
112.2
-2.3
117.4
98.4
64.6
84.9
11P
111.2
-3.7
115.6
96.4
53.7
63.7
12P
110.5
-4.6
112.7
93.7
52.4
55.0
2009 1
-
-
-
-
58.1
52.0
2
-
-
-
-
-
66.0
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office & The Federation of Korean Industries
60
February 2009
9. Balance of payments (I) See graphs 5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 10-1 & 10-2 (million US$)
Current balance
Period
Goods trade balance
Exports
Imports
Services trade balance
Income trade balance
Current transfers
2007
5,876.0
28,168.0
371,489.0
356,845.8
-19,767.6
1,002.7
-3,527.1
2008P
-6,406.4
5,993.9
422,007.3
435,274.7
-16,733.6
5,106.5
-773.2
-1,662.2
6,037.9
84,703.5
82,261.7
-6,180.1
-689.6
-830.4
2007
2008P
2007
I II
34.4
6,970.2
92,984.5
87,961.9
-4,395.3
-1,543.1
-997.4
III
4,430.2
9,676.2
90,529.0
86,058.8
-5,884.1
1,663.8
-1,025.7
IV
3,151.9
6,725.1
103,272.0
100,563.3
-4,115.4
1,337.4
-795.2
I
-5,212.6
-1,219.8
99,444.6
106,052.9
-5,067.2
1,688.1
-613.7
II
-134.4
5,722.7
114,492.0
114,792.8
-4,272.7
-645.6
-938.8
III
-8,579.9
-3,475.5
115,000.1
122,901.0
-5,691.7
1,356.7
-769.4
IV
7,520.5
4,966.5
93,070.6
91,528.0
-1,702.0
2,707.3
1,548.7
1
-428.1
1,292.1
28,092.6
27,560.1
-1,943.4
547.1
-323.9
2
402.1
2,387.3
26,225.1
25,406.2
-2,551.1
850.7
-284.8
3
-1,636.2
2,358.5
30,385.8
29,295.5
-1,685.6
-2,087.4
-221.7
4
-2,078.1
1,519.5
29,944.5
29,596.9
-1,396.1
-2,001.5
-200.0
5
839.1
2,239.0
31,039.9
29,856.9
-1,483.2
461.6
-378.3
6
1,273.4
3,211.7
32,000.1
28,508.1
-1,516.0
-3.2
-419.1
7
1,552.3
3,044.1
30,207.4
29,223.2
-1,688.2
533.5
-337.1
8
573.7
2,906.4
30,998.1
29,642.1
-2,445.2
444.3
-331.8
9
2,304.2
3,725.7
29,323.5
27,193.6
-1,750.7
686.0
-356.8
10
2,461.1
3,638.0
34,433.8
32,741.2
-1,416.5
502.9
-263.3
11
1,504.6
2,643.7
35,807.9
33,926.1
-1,458.9
422.8
-103.0
12
-813.8
443.4
33,030.3
33,895.9
-1,240.0
411.7
-428.9
2008P 1
-2,751.3
-1,095.2
32,274.6
36,318.0
-2,138.1
768.0
-286.0
2
-2,350.7
-599.1
31,178.2
32,624.3
-2,249.6
700.7
-202.7
3
-110.6
474.5
35,991.8
37,110.6
-679.5
219.4
-125.0
4
-1,581.3
1,632.3
37,850.2
38,260.4
-979.8
-1,932.0
-302.6
5
-377.5
612.5
39,383.2
38,704.5
-1,167.4
459.2
-281.8
6
1,824.4
3,477.9
37,258.6
37,827.9
-2,126.3
827.2
-354.4
7
-2,534.0
217.6
40,961.2
42,952.5
-2,456.0
239.6
-535.2
8
-4,696.3
-2,803.4
36,610.6
40,420.4
-2,000.0
324.8
-217.7
9
-1,349.6
-889.7
37,428.3
39,528.1
-1,235.7
792.3
-16.5
10
4,753.0
2,625.7
37,111.1
36,098.8
-54.8
1,411.2
770.9
11
1,906.7
844.8
28,841.6
28,853.6
-130.1
720.2
471.8
12
860.8
1,496.0
27,117.9
26,575.6
-1,517.1
575.9
306.0
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea & Korea Customs Service
Economic Bulletin
61
10. Balance of payments (II) See graph 10-3 (million US$) Capital & financial account
Period
2007 2008P
2007
Direct investment
Portfolio investment
Other investment
Capital transfers & acquisition of non-financial assets
Changes in reserve assets
Errors and omissions
7,128.3
-13,836.0
-20.613.0
43,964.8
-2,387.5
-15,128.4
2,124.1
-50,933.3
-10,594.8
-29.700.2
-10,599.7
-38.6
56,446.0
893.7
I
5,313.6
-959.8
-10,492.9
17,580.4
-814.1
-3,998.3
346.9
II
6,442.1
-2,867.7
-27.2
10,023.0
-686.0
-6,250.1
-226.4
III
-3,326.5
-2,445.6
-9,169.6
8,858.8
-570.1
-2,495.6
1,391.9
IV
-2,196.9
-7,423.6
596.4
4,949.7
-319.4
-2,384.2
1,429.2
2008P I
395.9
-4,790.6
-11,065.6
16,489.7
-237.6
3,850.0
966.7
ll
-4,673.7
-2,913.5
5,191.4
-6,718.6
-233.0
5,717.7
-909.6
III
-4,850.5
-2,283.5
-15,863.3
13,515.7
-219.4
12,883.1
547.3
IV
-41,805.0
-607.2
-7,962.7
-33,886.5
651.4
33,995.2
289.3
2007 1
2,078.9
-208.9
-1,411.2
4,054.0
-355.0
-2,350.7
699.9
2
-404.0
-687.6
-1,940.7
2,427.6
-203.3
-1,134.7
1,136.6
3
3,638.7
-63.3
-7,141.0
11,098.8
-255.8
-512.9
-1,489.6
4
4,203.3
-388.2
3,808.0
1,029.3
-245.8
-1,878.4
-246.8
5
3,597.1
-311.3
529.6
3,613.2
-234.4
-4,492.9
56.7
6
-1,358.3
-2,168.2
-4,364.8
5,380.5
-205.8
121.2
-36.3
7
537.1
-3.0
-6,925.0
7,692.6
-227.5
-2,421.6
332.2
8
-304.8
-1,372.5
-5,973.7
7,248.3
-206.9
-937.5
668.6
9
-3,558.8
-1,070.1
3,729.1
-6,082.1
-135.7
863.5
391.1
10
-1,912.9
-4,439.9
154.3
2,538.1
-165.4
-847.5
299.3
11
-1,498.6
-1,726.1
-2,901.5
3,202.6
-73.6
-493.8
487.8
12
1,214.6
-1,257.6
3,343.6
-791.0
-80.4
-1,042.9
642.1
2008P 1
409.2
-2,488.7
-4,011.1
7,013.3
-104.3
1,436.1
906.0
2
-401.3
303.5
-5,426.4
4,819.9
-98.3
1,703.1
1,048.9
3
388.0
-2,605.4
-1,628.1
4,656.5
-35.0
710.8
-988.2
4
-376.9
-1,911.9
3,571.7
1,958.9
-87.8
2,411.3
-453.1
5
-732.1
-262.6
7,343.4
-8,276.5
-54.7
2,264.6
-1,155.0
6
-3,564.7
-739.0
-5,723.7
2,561.3
-90.5
1,041.8
698.5
7
-5,774.6
-1,214.3
-9,563.1
5,180.4
-177.6
9,171.4
-862.8
8
5,312.4
-742.7
-565.4
6,743.0
-109.5
-1,215.2
599.1
9
-4,388.3
-326.5
-5,734.8
1,605.3
67.7
4,926.9
811.0
10
-24,834.8
-198.7
1,260.4
-26,247.2
350.7
19,988.1
93.7
11
-12,140.9
-213.9
-4,698.3
-7,439.3
210.6
10,904.2
-670.0
12
-4,829.3
-194.6
-4,525.0
-200.0
90.1
3,102.9
865.6
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
62
February 2009
11. Prices See graphs 11-1, 11-2 & 11-3 (2005 = 100) Producer prices (2000=100)
Consumer prices
Export & import prices
Period All Items
Commodity
Service
Core
All items
Commodity
Export
Import
2007 2008
104.8 109.7
103.5 109.9
105.7 109.6
104.2 108.6
102.3 111.1
101.5 112.5
89.8 109.5
105.5 143.7
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
102.8 103.5 104.1 104.5 104.6 104.6 105.0 105.1 105.7 105.9 105.9 106.3
101.4 102.3 102.3 102.8 102.8 102.7 103.3 103.5 104.7 105.1 104.9 105.6
103.8 104.2 105.2 105.5 105.7 105.8 106.0 106.1 106.3 106.4 106.6 106.7
102.7 103.1 103.8 104.1 104.1 104.2 104.4 104.5 104.6 104.7 104.8 105.0
100.5 100.6 101.0 101.7 102.3 102.5 102.7 102.6 103.1 103.3 103.7 104.1
99.6 99.6 100.2 100.9 101.6 101.7 101.7 101.7 102.3 102.4 103.1 103.7
88.6 88.1 88.9 89.2 89.3 89.5 89.6 90.6 90.8 89.8 91.5 92.0
97.7 99.5 102.7 104.0 104.5 104.2 104.1 105.1 107.6 108.6 113.0 114.9
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2009 1
106.8 107.2 108.2 108.8 109.7 110.4 111.2 111.0 111.1 111.0 110.7 110.7 110.8
106.3 106.6 107.1 108.2 110.0 111.5 112.9 112.2 112.1 111.7 110.3 110.2 110.4
107.1 107.5 108.9 109.2 109.5 109.7 110.1 110.3 110.4 110.6 110.9 111.0 111.0
105.6 106.0 107.2 107.7 108.2 108.7 109.2 109.4 109.9 110.1 110.4 110.9 111.1
104.7 105.7 107.1 109.4 111.5 113.3 115.5 115.2 114.8 114.4 111.8 109.9 109.6
104.4 105.7 107.5 110.3 113.1 115.5 118.1 117.6 117.0 116.7 113.3 110.9 110.4
93.7 94.8 100.8 103.3 110.7 112.0 112.1 110.5 115.6 124.5 120.4 115.0 111.1
118.4 121.6 131.5 136.5 151.1 155.2 156.8 149.9 153.4 159.7 149.1 140.6 138.1
2007 2008
2.5 4.7
2.0 6.2
2.9 3.7
2.4 4.2
1.4 8.6
1.0 10.8
-2.1 21.8
4.5 36.2
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1.7 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.3 3.0 3.5 3.6
0.3 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.8 0.5 1.6 3.2 4.2 4.3
2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.0
2.1 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4
0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.6 0.9 1.0 2.2 3.1 3.6
-0.5 -0.6 0.2 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.4 1.8 3.3 4.0
-5.7 -4.2 -3.3 -1.8 -1.4 -2.8 -2.6 -3.4 -2.6 -2.5 1.8 3.4
-1.4 1.6 4.4 4.2 2.8 1.6 0.1 -0.7 5.2 7.5 13.7 15.6
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.9 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.9 5.5 5.9 5.6 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.1
4.8 4.2 4.7 5.3 7.0 8.6 9.3 8.4 7.1 6.3 5.1 4.4
3.2 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.0
2.8 2.8 3.3 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.6
4.2 5.1 6.1 7.6 9.0 10.5 12.5 12.3 11.3 10.7 7.8 5.6
4.8 6.1 7.3 9.3 11.3 13.6 16.1 15.6 14.4 14.0 9.9 6.9
5.8 7.6 13.4 15.7 24.0 25.2 25.1 21.9 27.4 38.6 31.5 25.0
21.2 22.2 28.0 31.3 44.6 49.0 50.6 42.6 42.6 47.1 32.0 22.4
2009 1
3.7
3.9
3.7
5.2
4.7
5.7
18.6
16.7
Y-o-Y change (%)
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
63
12. Employment See graphs 8-1, 8-2 & 8-3 Wage workers (thous.)
Economically active persons (thous.) Period
Employed persons (thous.)
Unemployment (%) Regular
Temporary
Daily
All industry Manufacturing S.O.C&service 2007 2008
24,216 24,347
23,433 23,577
4,014 3,963
17,679 17,906
3.2 3.2
15,970 16,206
8,620 9,007
5,172 5,079
2,178 2,121
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
23,580 23,536 23,960 24,337 24,537 24,593 24,545 24,214 24,341 24,482 24,471 23,993
22,729 22,674 23,121 23,520 23,758 23,816 23,750 23,458 23,622 23,750 23,739 23,257
4,046 4,030 4,016 4,024 4,018 4,039 4,022 3,945 3,990 4,036 3,983 4,021
17,335 17,229 17,479 17,677 17,779 17,822 17,850 17,635 17,754 17,800 17,969 17,822
3.6 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1
15,656 15,539 15,731 15,964 16,095 16,124 16,127 15,882 16,056 16,147 16,218 16,104
8,382 8,399 8,432 8,451 8,532 8,617 8,674 8,763 8,823 8,825 8,793 8,750
5,176 5,125 5,188 5,236 5,259 5,217 5,254 5,044 5,100 5,119 5,174 5,176
2,099 2,015 2,112 2,277 2,304 2,290 2,199 2,075 2,132 2,203 2,251 2,178
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
23,738 23,703 24,114 24,495 24,692 24,727 24,673 24,380 24,456 24,582 24,566 24,032
22,964 22,884 23,305 23,711 23,939 23,963 23,903 23,617 23,734 23,847 23,816 23,245
4,022 4,017 3,999 4,001 3,987 3,993 3,975 3,899 3,928 3,945 3,897 3,888
17,651 17,510 17,732 17,929 18,046 18,067 18,088 17,872 17,951 18,005 18,086 17,935
3.3 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.3
16,032 15,836 15,993 16,258 16,405 16,385 16,363 16,104 16,221 16,314 16,377 16,189
8,815 8,804 8,898 8,894 9,010 9,039 9,054 9,107 9,142 9,138 9,111 9,068
5,115 5,055 5,023 5,127 5,165 5,132 5,163 4,970 5,015 5,034 5,071 5,082
2,102 1,977 2,073 2,238 2,231 2,214 2,146 2,027 2,064 2,142 2,195 2,040
2009 1
23,709
22,861
3,895
17,653
3.6
16,053
9,102
4,982
1,969
Y-o-Y change (%) 2.2 -8.6 1.3 0.0
2.7 1.5
5.1 4.5
0.6 -1.8
-1.2 -2.6
2007 2008
1.0 0.5
1.2 0.6
-1.0 -1.3
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1.0 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.9
1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2
-1.1 -1.2 -1.4 -1.2 -1.1 -0.8 -1.1 -1.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 -0.4
1.9 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.0
-2.7 -9.8 -10.3 -2.9 0.0 -5.9 -5.9 -8.8 -6.2 -9.1 -6.2 -6.1
3.1 2.9 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.6 3.5 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4
4.4 4.6 4.1 3.6 4.3 6.0 6.7 6.3 5.7 5.2 5.1 4.9
3.0 2.8 1.7 1.4 1.3 -0.5 -1.2 0.5 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -1.1
-1.6 -3.3 -2.5 -0.9 -2.1 -2.1 -3.3 -0.7 -0.5 0.8 0.7 1.6
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2
1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 -0.1
-0.6 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1 -1.2 -1.2 -1.6 -2.3 -2.2 -3.3
1.8 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.6
-8.3 -5.4 -2.9 -5.9 -6.2 -3.1 -3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 6.5
2.4 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.5
5.2 4.8 5.5 5.2 5.6 4.9 4.4 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.6
-1.2 -1.4 -3.2 -2.1 -1.8 -1.6 -1.7 -1.5 -1.7 -1.7 -2.0 -1.8
0.2 -1.9 -1.8 -1.7 -3.2 -3.3 -2.4 -2.3 -3.2 -2.8 -2.5 -6.3
2009 1
-0.1
-0.4
-3.2
0.1
9.1
0.1
3.3
-2.6
-6.3
Source: Korea National Statistical Office
64
February 2009
13. Financial indicators See graphs 9-1 & 9-4 (period average) Yields (%)
Stock
Period Call rate (1 day)
CD (91 days)
Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)
Treasury bonds (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
KOSPI (end-period)
2005 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.7
3.5 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0
4.1 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.8 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.5
3.7 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.1
3.9 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.4 4.7 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.3
932.70 1,011.40 965.70 911.30 970.20 1,008.20 1,111.30 1,083.30 1,221.00 1,158.10 1,297.40 1,379.40
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.8
5.5 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.2
5.0 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.8
5.3 5.0 5.1 5.2 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.9
1,399.80 1,371.60 1,359.60 1,419.70 1,371.70 1,295.70 1,297.80 1,352.70 1,371.40 1,364.60 1,432.20 1,434.50
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.7
5.3 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.7
5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.9
5.0 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.9
1,360.20 1,417.30 1,452.60 1,542.24 1,700.91 1,743.60 1,933.27 1,873.24 1,946.48 2,064.95 1,906.00 1,897.10
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.2 4.9 4.0 3.3
5.8 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.8 5.8 6.0 5.6 4.7
6.6 6.3 6.1 5.9 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.5 8.0 8.6 8.4
5.4 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.1 5.0 4.0
5.5 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.2 5.2 4.3
1,624.68 1,711.62 1,703.99 1,825.47 1,852.02 1,674.92 1,594.67 1,474.24 1,448.06 1,113.06 1,076.07 1,124.47
2009 1
2.4
3.2
7.3
3.4
4.0
1,162.11
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
65
14. Monetary indicators See graph 9-5 (period average)
Period
(billion won)
Reserve money
M1
M2
Lf
2006 2007
41,664.0 48,543.7
330,134.1 312,832.3
1,076,682.4 1,197,094.8
1,454,858.8 1,603,516.0
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
47,851.4 49,493.5 48,936.8 47,485.3 48,092.5 47,914.3 47,500.5 47,823.9 48,870.6 49,370.6 48,831.0 50,353.8
353,494.2 350,734.7 335,446.8 305,602.5 301,184.5 302,511.7 302,375.6 298,066.1 299,048.0 297,999.3 299,714.7 307,809.3
1,143,814.9 1,154,108.8 1,162,429.3 1,165,291.0 1,171,148.4 1,190,080.2 1,200,892.7 1,208,052.8 1,219,265.1 1,229,742.1 1,250,790.1 1,269,522.5
1,536,010.8 1,547,512.8 1,557,701.9 1,564,339.3 1,575,635.4 1,596,407.1 1,606,424.5 1,618,788.3 1,631,969.6 1,649,987.5 1,668,328.3 1,686,063.4
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
50,260.5 52,563.7 49,571.5 50,683.6 50,502.5 51,274.4 50,600.6 51,981.0 53,303.9 52,976.5 54,254.5 59,300.7
305,868.0 304,580.7 299,792.8 298,474.4 304,239.8 305,514.3 306,584.4 304,538.7 307,067.8 310,565.5 316,330.9 323,725.9
1,286,407.8 1,309,161.7 1,324,032.7 1,339,434.9 1,356,612.9 1,369,728.1 1,378,914.3 1,386,101.1 1,395,719.2 1,403,984.2 1,426,165.1 1,436,298.3
1,711,196.8 1,726,407.2 1,743,481.7 1,762,945.3 1,782,721.1 1,798,774.9 1,801,540.6 1,810,535.1 1,831,313.4 1,845,717.7 1,859,348.8 1,863,865.0
Y-o-Y change (%) 2006 2007
7.4 16.5
-0.8 -5.2
8.3 11.2
7.9 10.2
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
15.8 18.8 19.4 15.3 18.1 17.7 13.2 18.7 17.8 14.3 17.6 12.2
7.9 7.4 3.0 -5.7 -7.0 -7.5 -8.4 -8.6 -8.7 -10.7 -11.2 -12.5
11.3 11.5 11.5 11.1 10.9 10.9 10.9 11.4 11.0 10.8 11.3 11.5
9.8 9.9 10.2 10.1 10.1 10.4 10.0 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.6
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5.0 6.2 1.3 6.7 5.0 7.0 6.5 8.7 9.1 7.3 11.1 17.8
-13.5 -13.2 -10.6 -2.3 1.0 1.0 1.4 2.2 2.7 4.2 5.5 5.2
12.5 13.4 13.9 14.9 15.8 15.1 14.8 14.7 14.5 14.2 14.0 13.1
11.4 11.6 11.9 12.7 13.1 12.7 12.1 11.8 12.2 11.9 11.4 10.4
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
66
February 2009
15. Exchange rates See graphs 9-2 & 9-3
/US$
/100
/Euro
Period End-period
Average
End-period
Average
End-period
Average
938.2 1,257.5
929.2 1,102.6
833.3 1,393.9
789.8 1,076.6
1,381.3 1,776.2
1,272.7 1,606.8
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
940.9 938.3 940.3 929.4 929.9 926.8 923.2 939.9 920.7 907.4 929.6 938.2
936.4 937.0 943.3 931.5 927.9 928.3 918.9 933.8 932.4 915.9 917.0 930.2
773.1 793.9 797.0 778.3 764.8 752.4 774.6 809.9 796.7 791.1 846.5 833.3
777.9 776.8 804.8 783.7 768.5 757.1 755.6 799.8 810.6 790.7 826.2 828.4
1,220.1 1,241.9 1,253.9 1,266.9 1,249.0 1,246.0 1,266.9 1,282.3 1,302.9 1,309.9 1,371.8 1,381.3
1,217.0 1,225.1 1,249.4 1,257.7 1,254.1 1,244.9 1,260.0 1,272.4 1,291.2 1,303.3 1,345.6 1,355.2
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
943.9 937.3 991.7 999.7 1,031.4 1,043.4 1,008.5 1,081.8 1,187.7 1,291.4 1,482.7 1,257.5
942.4 944.7 979.9 986.7 1,036.7 1,029.3 1,019.1 1,041.5 1,130.4 1,326.9 1,390.1 1,373.8
889.1 889.7 1,000.2 961.8 977.0 981.8 932.9 987.9 1,144.2 1,306.0 1,553.8 1,393.9
872.9 880.6 972.3 962.4 994.2 963.0 954.2 953.0 1,060.6 1,327.1 1,435.1 1,503.3
1,402.3 1,423.5 1,565.0 1,556.2 1,599.6 1,647.1 1,571.0 1,590.3 1,707.2 1,664.4 1,912.6 1,776.2
1,386.2 1,395.4 1,519.5 1,555.1 1,614.6 1,601.7 1,606.4 1,561.6 1,627.6 1,765.3 1,768.9 1,846.1
2009 1
1,368.5
1,346.1
1,521.0
1,487.2
1,768.7
1,793.8
2007 2008
Y-o-Y change (%) 2007 2008
0.9 34.0
-2.8 18.7
6.6 67.3
-3.9 36.3
-13.0 28.6
6.1 26.2
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-3.1 -3.2 -3.7 -1.7 -1.9 -3.5 -3.1 -2.1 -2.6 -3.9 -0.0 0.9
-5.1 -3.4 -3.3 -2.4 -1.4 -2.8 -3.3 -2.8 -2.2 -4.0 -2.1 0.5
-6.3 -4.8 -4.2 -6.0 -9.2 -9.8 -6.7 -1.3 -0.7 -1.5 5.9 6.6
-8.9 -5.5 -3.2 -3.8 -8.8 -9.1 -8.0 -3.6 -0.5 -1.5 3.5 4.8
3.9 8.2 5.6 6.9 3.4 2.5 4.2 4.1 8.5 9.1 12.2 13.0
1.9 5.6 6.5 7.5 4.4 3.0 4.5 3.4 6.3 8.4 11.6 10.8
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0.3 -0.1 5.5 7.6 10.9 12.6 9.2 15.1 29.0 42.3 59.5 34.0
0.6 0.8 3.9 5.9 11.7 10.9 10.9 11.5 21.2 44.9 51.6 47.7
15.0 12.1 25.5 23.6 27.8 30.5 20.4 22.0 43.6 65.1 83.6 67.3
12.2 13.4 20.8 22.8 29.4 27.2 26.3 19.2 30.8 67.8 73.7 81.5
14.9 14.6 24.8 22.8 28.1 32.2 24.0 24.0 31.0 27.1 39.4 28.6
13.9 13.9 21.6 23.6 28.7 28.7 27.5 22.7 26.1 35.5 31.5 36.2
2009 1
45.0
42.8
71.1
70.4
26.1
29.4
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
67
Editor-in-Chief Kim, Kyu-Ok (MOSF) Editorial Board Rim, Jin-Hong (MOSF) Kim, Dong-Yule (KDI) Lee, In-Sook (KDI) Coordinators Kim, Dae-Hyun (MOSF) Kang, Ji-Eun (KDI) Editors Oh, Hae-Young (MOSF) Lim, Keun-Hyuk (MOSF) Cho, Hyun-Joo (KDI)
Useful Internet Websites Economy-related Websites Recommended
Ministry of Strategy and Finance http://english.mosf.go.kr Ministry of Knowledge Economy http://www.mke.go.kr/language/eng Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr Fair Trade Commission http://www.ftc.go.kr/eng Ministry of Labor http://english.molab.go.kr/english The Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr Korea National Statistical Office http://www.nso.go.kr/eng2006