Vol. 31 | No. 3
Republic of Korea
Economic Bulletin The Green Book : Current Economic Trends Overview
3
1. Global economy
4
2. Private consumption
8
3. Facility investment
12
4. Construction investment
14
5. Exports and imports
16
6. Mining and manufacturing production
18
7. Service sector activity
20
8. Employment
22
9. Financial markets
24
9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4
Stock market Exchange rate Bond market Money supply & money market
10. Balance of payments
28
11. Prices and international commodity prices
30
11.1 Prices 11.2 International oil and commodity prices 12. Real estate market
34
12.1 Housing market 12.2 Land market 13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
38
Policy Issues Corporate restructuring: Strategies and plans
40
Korean government’s response to prolonged global financial market instability
43
Economic News Briefing
45
Statistical Appendices
49
The Green Book Current Economic Trends
Overview The global recession and unstable international financial markets have affected both domestic demand and exports this year as well as increased volatility in domestic financial markets. Despite a month-on-month rise of 1.3 percent, mining and manufacturing production posted a large year-on-year drop in January 2009 due to a fall in exports. January service output recorded another slight increase of 0.3 percent month-on-month following December. January consumer goods sales slid, posting a month-on-month loss of 1.9 percent. Facility investment plunged 25.3 percent year-on-year in January due to decreased investments in semiconductor equipment. Construction investment saw a year-on-year increase of 2.0 percent in terms of construction completed, helped by brisk civil engineering works. Exports in February decelerated its year-on-year fall, posting a 17.1 percent loss from the previous month’s 33.8 percent fall, led by the effects of the Lunar New Year holidays and weak won, contributing to a surplus of US$3.3 billion in the trade account balance. The total number of workers hired fell by 103,000 year-on-year in January, sending the unemployment rate to 3.6 percent, exacerbating the already-tough Korean job market. Consumer prices showed a steeper increase of 4.1 percent in February from the previous month’s 3.7 percent, affected by rising prices of international oil products and gold. Worries over an Eastern European financial crisis affected Korea’s financial markets, sending stock prices down and foreign exchange rates soaring. To sum up, the overall Korean economy has been on a downward trajectory since the fourth quarter of 2008. However, January production posted a modest month-on-month increase, which is expected to continue in February. Given the remaining downside risks such as a prolonged global recession and recurrence of financial market turmoil, the Korean economy needs to be closely watched in terms of the real economy as well as financial markets. Against this backdrop, the government will allocate supplementary budgets to boost domestic demand, orchestrate corporate restructuring effectively and constantly, strengthen social safety nets for the vulnerable, and increase Korea’s economic potentials to prepare for the period post-crisis. Economic Bulletin
3
1. Global economy Developing countries including China showed clear signs of economic slowdown as advanced economies, led by the US and Japan, contracted in the fourth quarter of 2008. Concerns over another financial crisis originating in Eastern Europe seeped through global credit and financial markets.
US
The US economy revised 2008 growth to 1.1 percent from 1.3 percent, as its GDP in the fourth quarter shrank at a 6.2 percent annual rate (preliminary), a sharp downward revision from a 3.8 percent drop (advance). The Fed’s policy panel, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut its 2009 growth forecast in its minutes of February 18, as the real economy shrank rapidly and constantly. US growth forecast for 2009 (%) -0.2 ~ 1.1 (Oct 2008)
-1.3 ~ -0.5 (Feb 2009)
The number of non-farm payroll employees tumbled 598,000 in January 2009 with 667,000 unemployment benefit applications, showing signs of deteriorating job markets. Unemployment rate (%) 6.1 (Aug 2008)
6.1 (Sep)
6.5 (Oct)
6.8 (Nov)
7.2 (Dec)
7.6 (Jan 2009)
Exports plummeted in December 2008 as the global economy as well as the US economy fell into a recession. Exports (y-o-y, %) 16.3 (Aug 2008)
8.6 (Sep)
5.2 (Oct)
-1.7 (Nov)
-8.4 (Dec)
The US congress passed a US$787.2 billion stimulus package on February 13 in addition to the US$2 trillion financial stabilization package, which was announced by the US Department of the Treasury. The US government converted its share of preferred stock in AIG and Citigroup to common stock on March 1, effectively nationalizing the organizations. (Percentage change from previous period) 2007 Annual
2008 Q4
Annual
2009
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Dec
Jan
Real GDP1
2.0
-0.2
1.1
0.9
2.8
-0.5
-6.2
-
-
- Personal consumption expenditure
2.8
1.0
0.2
0.9
1.2
-3.8
-4.3
-
-
- Corporate fixed investment
4.9
3.4
1.7
2.4
2.5
-1.7
-21.1
-
-
-17.9
-27.0
-20.7
-25.1
-13.3
-16.0
-22.2
-
-
Industrial production
1.7
0.3
-1.8
0.1
-0.9
-2.3
-3.0
-2.0
-1.8
Retail sales
4.2
1.3
-0.4
-0.3
0.9
-1.3
-6.8
-3.0
1.0
New non-farm payroll employment (q-o-q, thousand)
1,096
241
-2,589
-247
-214
-597
-1,531
-577
-598
New home sales
-26.2
-10.9
-37.6
-13.8
-7.5
-10.9
-18.9
-9.5
-10.2
2.9
4.0
3.9
4.1
4.4
5.3
1.6
0.1
0.0
- Construction investment for housing
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) 1. Annualized rate (%)
4
March 2009
1-1
US GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate) Source: US Department of Commerce
1-2
US non-farm payroll employment (m-o-m change) Source: US Department of Labor
1-3
US federal funds rate and consumer prices Source: US Federal Reserve Board & Department of Labor
Economic Bulletin
5
China
China’s economy showed clear signs of slowdown as exports plunged and inflation decelerated. However, expectations are high that the government’s stimulus package will work, as demand during the Lunar New Year holidays soared 13.8 percent year-on-year thanks to government subsidies for electronics purchase given to rural residents. Chinese premier Hu Jintao announced on February 26 that the country would have a powerful stimulus package to boost domestic demand. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
2007
2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan
Real GDP
11.6
13.0
11.2
9.0
10.6
10.1
9.0
6.8
-
Fixed asset investment (accumulated)
24.5
25.8
25.8
26.1
25.9
26.8
27.6
26.1
-
Retail sales
13.7
16.8
19.0
21.6
20.6
22.2
23.2
20.4
-
Industrial production
16.6
18.5
17.5
12.9
16.4
15.9
13.0
6.4
-
Exports
27.2
25.7
22.2
17.2
21.4
22.4
22.9
4.1
-17.5
Consumer prices
1.5
4.8
6.6
5.9
8.0
7.8
5.3
2.5
1.0
Producer prices
3.0
3.1
4.4
6.9
6.9
8.4
9.7
2.5
-3.3
Japan
The Japanese economy contracted for the third consecutive quarter in the fourth quarter of 2008, shedding 3.3 percent or an annualized 12.7 percent quarter-on-quarter in terms of GDP. The Japanese government cut its assessment of the country’s economy saying that the economy is “worsening rapidly” and “in a severe situation”. The BOJ froze the interest rate at 0.1 percent on February 18. 2006
(Percentage change from previous period) 2008 2009
2007
Annual Annual
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Dec
Jan
Real GDP
2.0
2.4
0.5
-0.7
0.6
-1.0
-0.5
-3.3
-
-
Industrial and mining production
4.5
2.8
0.9
-3.3
-0.7
-0.8
-1.3
-11.9
-9.8
-10.0
Retail sales (y-o-y, %) Exports (y-o-y, %) Consumer prices (y-o-y, %)
Eurozone
0.1
-0.1
0.8
0.3
1.8
0.2
0.8
-1.5
-2.7
-2.4
14.6
11.5
10.0
-3.4
6.0
1.8
3.2
-23.1
-35.0
-45.7
0.3
0.0
0.5
1.4
1.0
1.4
2.2
1.0
0.4
0.0
The eurozone economy contracted 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter, the lowest since 1995 when it started to compile the data. On February 17, Moody’s Investors Service expressed concerns over another credit risk as the potential loss of Western European banks is increasing with heavy exposure to Eastern European countries whose chances of default are rising. (Percentage change from previous period) 2006
2007
Annual Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Dec
Jan
0.3
0.7
0.7
-0.2
-0.2
-1.5
-
-
3.5
1.1
-1.7
0.1
-1.6
-2.0
-5.1
-2.6
-
0.9
-0.6
-1.3
-0.3
-0.9
0.1
-0.8
0.0
-
11.7
8.6
5.6
3.9
6.9
8.4
5.2
-4.4
-2.1
-
2.2
2.1
2.9
3.3
3.3
3.6
3.9
2.6
1.6
1.1
2.9
2.6
Industrial production
4.0
Retail sales
1.6
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %)
6
March 2009
2009
Q4
Real GDP
Exports (y-o-y, %)
2008
1-4
China’s GDP and fixed asset investment Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
1-5
Japan’s GDP growth Source: Cabinet Office & Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan
1-6
Eurozone GDP growth and industrial production Source: Eurostat
Economic Bulletin
7
2. Private consumption Private consumption (advance estimates of GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2008 saw the sharpest decline since the Asian financial crisis, posting a year-on-year decrease of 4.4 percent, and quarter-on-quarter of 4.8 percent (seasonally adjusted). Private consumption (y-o-y, %) 4.8 (Q3 2007)
4.6 (Q4)
3.4 (Q1 2008)
(SA*, q-o-q, %): 1.3 (Q3 2007)
0.8 (Q4)
2.3 (Q2)
1.1 (Q3)
0.4 (Q1 2008)
-4.4 (Q4)
-0.2 (Q2)
0.1(Q3)
-4.8 (Q4)
* SA: seasonally adjusted
Consumer goods sales in January 2009 fell at a slower pace year-on-year due to the Lunar New Year holidays demand, however at a faster pace month-on-month. Sales of durable goods continued double digit fall, as the sales of cars plummeted for the third consecutive month. Sales of semi-durable goods decelerated its fall from a 13.6 percent slump in the previous month to a 1.1 percent drop in January, albeit staying on the downward trajectory for five months in a row. Sales of non-durables posted a year-on-year increase for the third consecutive month in January. However, there was a large month-on-month decline of 6.7 percent.
2007
2008
2009
Annual
Annual1
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q41
Nov
Dec1
Jan1
Consumer goods sales
5.2
0.9
4.4
2.9
1.4
-4.6
-5.4
-4.7
-3.1
(Seasonally adjusted)
-
-
0.6
-1.3
-0.1
-3.5
-0.5
-0.2
-1.9
10.0
1.5
9.5
8.7
0.0
-11.3
-18.2
-14.1
-19.8
7.2
-3.0
9.6
7.1
-4.9
-22.6
-39.3
-23.7
-30.9
3.9
-2.4
3.8
-2.1
0.6
-9.9
-6.8
-13.6
-1.1
5.2
0.7
1.9
0.3
1.2
-0.4
0.4
1.9
5.0
- Durable goods
2
3
路Automobiles - Semi-durable goods - Non-durable goods
5
4
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period 3. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 4. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 5. Non-durable good: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobaccos, etc.
Sales at large discounters and department stores increased due to the Lunar New Year holidays demand, while sales at specialized retailers continued its downtrend. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008
2007
2009
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Nov
Dec
- Department stores
0.8
0.5
4.3
3.7
0.2
-5.0
-0.4
-11.9
8.7
- Large discounters
8.5
2.2
7.6
3.1
-0.2
-1.2
3.3
-5.5
10.0
- Specialized retailers2
5.4
-1.9
2.0
0.7
-1.0
-8.6
-10.9
-7.0
-9.4
1
1. Preliminary 2. Specialized retailers are defined as stores carrying a few (1 to 3) specialized items.
8
March 2009
1
1
Jan1
2-1
Private consumption Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
2-2
Consumer goods sales Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
2-3
Consumer goods sales by type Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
9
The February consumer goods sales are unlikely to snap their current downtrend, as the advance estimates are low and consumer sentiment has been deteriorating. Domestic credit card spending continued to post single digit growth for the fourth consecutive month. However, the growth rate took a steeper path in February. Sales at large discounters and department stores turned to a year-on-year decrease affected by the shift of the Lunar New Year holidays from February in the previous year to January this year. Sales of large discounters, in particular, plummeted from the previous month. Domestic sales of Korean cars decreased for the seventh consecutive month. However, the decline slowed down significantly in February. Value of credit card use (y-o-y, %) 21.0 (Sep 2008)
15.2 (Oct)
9.8 (Nov)
9.1 (Dec)
3.9 (Jan 2009)
6.7 (Feb)
-4.5 (Dec)
10.4 (Jan 2009)
-0.4 (Feb)
Department store sales (y-o-y, %) -0.3 (Sep 2008)
0.0 (Oct)
7.5 (Nov)
Discount store sales (y-o-y, %) -9.2 (Sep 2008)
-0.7 (Oct)
2.3 (Nov)
-5.8 (Dec)
16.8 (Jan 2009)
-14.3 (Feb)
Domestic sales of Korean automobiles (y-o-y, %) -14.5 (Sep 2008)
-0.1 (Oct)
-27.7 (Nov)
-23.8 (Dec)
-24.1 (Jan 2009)
-4.7 (Feb)
Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy The Credit Finance Association Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association Ministry of Strategy and Finance (for February data)
Consumer spending is likely to remain locked in a downtrend in the months to come, as real income has declined for two consecutive quarters due to worsening job markets and the negative wealth effect from plunging real estate prices has continued to undermine consumer sentiment. Employment (y-o-y, thousand) 141 (Q3 2008)
97 (Oct)
78 (Nov)
-12 (Dec)
-103 (Jan 2009)
Real income (y-o-y, %) 1.8 (Q1 2008)
2.6 (Q2)
-2.4 (Q3)
-6.4 (Q4)
Source: The Bank of Korea
Nationwide apartment prices (m-o-m, %) -0.1 (Oct 2008)
-0.5 (Nov)
-0.9 (Dec)
-0.7 (Jan 2009)
-0.3 (Feb)
Consumer sentiment index 92 (Q3 2008)
10
March 2009
88 (Oct)
84 (Nov)
81 (Dec)
84 (Jan 2009)
85 (Feb)
2-4
Department store and discount store sales (current value) Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy (monthly retail sales)
2-5
Domestic automobile sales Source: Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association (monthly automobile industry trend)
2-6
Consumer sentiment index Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
11
3. Facility investment Facility investment (advance estimates of GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2008 saw a year-onyear decrease of 14.0 percent and a 16.1 percent loss from the previous quarter. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
20071
Annual Annual Facility investment
Q1
Q2
20081 Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
7.8
7.6
10.9
11.0
2.3
6.5
-2.0
1.4
0.7
4.7
-14.0
-
-
4.5
1.6
-1.8
2.1
-
-0.4
0.9
2.1
-16.1
- Machinery
8.2
7.6
13.5
9.5
1.0
7.0
-
-0.9
-0.1
6.6
-
- Transportation equipment
6.0
7.7
0.3
18.9
8.9
4.0
-
12.3
4.4
-4.7
-
2
(Seasonally adjusted)3
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts 3. Percentage change from previous period
Facility investment (estimated) in January 2009 declined at a faster pace from a year earlier, as investments in machinery such as semiconductor equipment fell. Leading indicators such as machinery orders and imports, the business survey index (BSI), and facility investment adjustment pressure indicate that facility investment is unlikely to improve for the months to come. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
2007
Annual
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Facility investment (estimated)
8.9
9.2
-3.2
-0.9
(Seasonally adjusted)2
-
-
-
-3.8
10.2
8.3
-4.0
3.9
13.2
- Machinery - Transportation equipment Domestic machinery orders
2008
2009
Q3
Q4
1
Nov
Dec
-0.5
5.3
-16.2
-17.0
-23.0
-25.3
-0.7
1.1
-13.5
-2.0
-7.4
-4.7
-2.2
-1.6
5.6
-17.2
-18.4
-22.5
-28.2
0.6
5.2
4.4
6.2
-11.3
-8.6
-25.7
-8.8
1
Jan1
16.2
21.1
-5.5
25.2
8.4
-7.6
-39.5
-43.9
-38.5
-47.8
- Public
0.3
-11.2
4.9
8.8
83.7
-26.8
-3.5
-4.7
-43.2
52.4
- Private
18.0
24.2
-6.2
25.9
5.5
-6.4
-43.9
-46.7
-36.8
-51.9
18.0
22.1
6.4
12.0
8.1
20.0
-11.5
-20.6
-20.7
-33.8
4.6
1.7
-2.2
5.1
2.8
0.3
-15.6
-17.9
-23.4
-29.5
Machinery imports Facility investment adjustment pressure3
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period 3. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p)
Both the Bank of Korea’s BSI for facility investment projections and results in the manufacturing sector rose by a small margin month-on-month, but stood far below 100, showing low investment levels.
2008
Business survey indices (base=100)
2009
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Manufacturing facility investment result
95
88
80
81
80
-
Manufacturing facility investment prospect
96
93
86
78
81
81
Source: The Bank of Korea
12
March 2009
3-1
Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
3-2
Machinery orders and estimated facility investment (3-month average) Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
3-3
Machinery imports Source: Korea International Trade Association (KITA)
Economic Bulletin
13
4. Construction investment Construction investment (advance estimates of GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2008 dipped 6.1 percent year-on-year, or 4.0 percent quarter-on-quarter. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
2007
Annual Annual
20081
1
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-0.1
1.2
3.7
1.6
-0.1
0.4
-2.7
-1.1
-1.2
-1.3
-6.1
-
-
-0.3-
-1.2-
-0.2
1.2
-
-1.4
-1.0
-0.0
-4.0
- Building construction
-0.7
1.8
2.0
1.2
-1.8
2.2
-
-0.3
-1.8
-1.9
-
- Civil engineering works
0.7
0.3
7.2
2.1
-2.9
-1.8-
-
-2.5
-0.5
-0.2
-
Construction investment2 (Seasonally adjusted)3
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts 3. Percentage change from previous period
In January 2009, construction completed (current value) rose 2 percent due to an increase in civil engineering works. Construction completed in the public sector accelerated its growth to 27.7 percent from 3.4 percent a month earlier as a result of early fiscal execution. Construction completed in the private sector also improved to a 9.3 percent drop in January from a 16.2 percent fall in the previous month. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
2007
2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Construction completed
2.6
6.6
4.7
5.6
6.1
10.6
-2.2
-1.3
-8.6
2.0
- Building construction
1.8
6.2
1.7
4.6
6.3
9.0
-10.6
-8.4
-18.7
-11.4
- Civil engineering works
4.3
6.9
10.6
7.7
5.9
14.3
13.6
12.3
8.5
27.1
Q4
1
Nov
Dec
1
Jan1
1. Preliminary
Construction orders in January dropped 15 percent from a year earlier due to the housing market downturn and diminishing investor confidence in the construction sector despite low base effect from a 9.3 percent decline in January 2008. Civil engineering orders showed a dramatic improvement as a result of government expansion of SOC investments, up 162.6 percent year-on-year in January from the previous month’s 77.9 percent increase. However, building construction orders fell 44.8 percent year-on-year in January compared to 12.1 percent rise a month earlier. Business survey index for construction (base=100) 50.1 (Sep 2008)
31.1 (Oct)
14.6 (Nov)
37.3 (Dec)
48.9 (Jan 2009)
Source: The Construction and Economy Research Institute of Korea
(Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2006
2007
Annual
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
9.0
23.6
-9.0
-3.7
-6.1
-22.7
- Public
-6.3
40.3
9.1
17.4
14.6
- Private
12.8
16.5
-15.8
-14.1
Construction orders
19.5
13.3
-20.1
-8.3
Construction orders
1. Preliminary
14
March 2009
2008
2009 Nov
Dec
1
Jan1
-6.5
-39.3
30.7
-15.0
2.9
5.0
-16.6
37.8
33.8
-4.7
-32.3
15.3
-46.7
23.4
-39.7
3.9
-13.8
-41.9
-55.4
18.4
-
1
4-1
Construction investment Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
4-2
Construction completed and housing construction Source: Korea National Statistical Office (construction completed) Kookmin Bank (housing construction)
4-3
Leading indicators of construction investment Source: Korea National Statistical Office (construction orders) Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (building construction permit area)
Economic Bulletin
15
5. Exports and imports Exports in February 2009 fell 17.1 percent year-on-year to US$25.85 billion, slowing the pace of decline from a record 33.8 percent year-on-year drop in January. Most products excluding vessels (up 47.4%) and wireless communication devices (up 3.1%) dropped year-on-year between February 1 and 20. In particular, exports of IT products such as semiconductors (down 40.3%), petroleum products (down 36.0%), and automobiles (down 32.9%) plunged. By regional category, while exports to the Central and South America (up 22.6%), the Middle East (up 7.1%), and China (up 3.3%) shifted to year-on-year increases during the first 20 days of February, those to the EU (down 5.7%), Japan (down 19,4%), and the US (down 2.5%) ended as negatives for the same period. (US$ billion) 2008
2009
Jan
Feb
Jan-Feb
Jan
Feb
Jan-Feb
Exports
32.28
31.18
63.45
21.37
25.85
47.22
(y-o-y, %)
14.9
18.9
16.8
-33.8
-17.1
-25.6
1.35
1.56
1.45
0.99
1.17
1.08
Imports
36.32
32.62
68.94
24.72
22.55
47.28
(y-o-y, %)
31.8
28.4
30.2
Average daily exports
-30.9
-31.4
1.51
1.63
1.57
1.15
1.03
1.09
-4.04
-1.45
-5.49
-3.36
3.30
-0.06
Average daily imports Trade balance
-31.9
Imports in January continued to fall considerably, slumping 30.4 percent to US$22.55 billion. Falling prices of raw materials and flagging domestic demand led to plunging imports of raw materials, capital goods, as well as consumer goods. Raw materials (y-o-y, %) 20.2 (Oct 2008)
-7.5 (Nov)
-21.0 (Dec)
-30.7 (Jan 2009)
-28.3 (Feb 1~20)
-26.0 (Dec)
-33.8 (Jan 2009)
-18.3 (Feb 1~20)
Capital goods (y-o-y, %) 0.1 (Oct 2008)
-23.8 (Nov)
Consumer goods (y-o-y, %) -10.0 (Oct 2008)
-28.8 (Nov)
-11.1 (Dec)
-33.2 (Jan 2009)
-20.1 (Feb 1~20)
Korea posted a trade surplus of US$3.3 billion in February. Imports and exports dropped 31.4 percent and 25.6 percent year-on-year, respectively, in the January to February period. The two-month figure removes the seasonal effect from the shift of the Lunar New Year. The cumulative trade account from January to February recorded a deficit of US$60 million, an improvement of US$5.4 billion compared to the same period last year. With the lengthening global economic downturn, exports are likely to continue their downward trajectory in March, but with imports also on the decline, the trade account is expected to record a small surplus.
16
March 2009
5-1
Exports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-2
Imports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-3
Trade balance Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
Economic Bulletin
17
6. Mining and manufacturing production In January 2009, production in mining and manufacturing (seasonally adjusted) has slightly improved by rising 1.3 percent month-on-month. However, on a year-on-year basis, it slumped 25.6 percent as the number of working days decreased due to the Lunar New Year holidays and exports dropped 33.8 percent. By business category, automobiles (down 49.4%), semiconductors and parts (down 35.3%), and primary metals (down 35.0%) greatly contributed to a year-on-year reduction in output. Contribution to year-on-year output growth (%p) Semiconductors and parts (-6.62), automobiles (-5.28), primary metals (-2.44)
Shipments fell yet again, down 23.5 percent from a 15.5 percent fall in December 2008, as decline in exports and domestic demand led to a cut in production. Inventory growth slowed considerably from 7.0 percent in the previous month to 0.4 percent. By business category, shipments of automobiles slumped 46.9 percent, semiconductors and parts sank 34.4 percent, while primary metals fell 32.6 percent. The inventory cycle for the manufacturing industry has pointed to economic slowdown for the past 12 months with inventory growth higher than shipment growth. However, the ratio of inventory to shipments fell 2.6 points month-on-month, showing signs of inventory adjustment. The average operation ratio for manufacturing fell slightly to 61.5 percent from the previous month’s 62.3 percent. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007 Q3
Q4 1
Nov
Dec1
Jan 1
-
-
-1.9
-11.9
-10.1
-9.6
1.3
(y-o-y)
6.9
3.0
5.6
-11.3
-13.8
-18.7
-25.6
- Manufacturing
7.1
3.0
5.6
-12.1
-14.5
-20.0
-27.0
·Heavy chemical industry
8.3
4.1
6.8
-12.8
-15.0
-21.8
-27.9
·Light industry
2.0
-2.1
0.0
-8.7
-12.2
-10.6
-23.1
Shipment
7.2
2.4
5.3
-10.1
-13.2
-15.5
-23.5
- Domestic demand
5.1
-0.7
1.7
-11.0
-14.0
-14.8
-24.6
- Exports
10.3
7.1
10.3
-8.8
-11.9
-16.3
-21.8
Inventory
5.6
7.4
17.3
7.4
16.1
7.4
0.4
80.1
77.2
78.3
69.3
68.4
62.3
61.5
5.2
5.3
3.5
3.4
3.4
2.5
3
Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) activity Production capacity 1. Preliminary
2009
Annual1
Production (q-o-q, m-o-m)
Mining and manufacturing activity2
2008
Annual
5.4
2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry
3. End-period
Mining and manufacturing production is likely to see another month-on-month increase in February 2009, considering the improved exports of 17.1 percent fall in February, up from 33.8 percent drop in January.
18
March 2009
6-1
Industrial production Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
6-2
Average manufacturing operation ratio Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
6-3
Inventory Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
19
7. Service sector activity Service activity in January 2009 was down 0.9 percent from a year earlier, a similar decreasing pace to the previous month. On a month-on-month basis, it continued a modest increase of 0.3 percent in January after growing 0.4 percent in the previous month. By business category, healthcare & social welfare services (up 7.0%) and financial & insurance services (up 4.6%) expanded during the month. Meanwhile, transportation services (down 9.9%) and business services (down 4.8%) showed sluggish performance. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) Weight
2006
2007
2008
Annual Annual Annual
1
2009
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
1
Nov
1
Dec
Jan1
Service activity index
100
5.1
6.8
3.5
6.7
4.8
3.2
-0.3
-1.5
-1.0
-0.9
- Wholesale & retail
22.0
3.8
5.8
1.4
4.0
3.1
3.6
-4.6
-6.2
-5.0
-2.0
- Hotels & restaurants
7.8
3.3
2.2
0.7
3.6
0.6
1.7
-3.0
-2.0
-5.8
-3.9
- Transportation services
9.0
3.5
6.6
4.4
8.1
8.2
4.3
-2.8
-5.9
-2.4
-9.9
- Information & communication services
8.4
4.6
3.8
3.5
6.0
5.5
3.4
-0.3
1.7
-2.6
-2.5
15.3
8.3
17.1
9.9
16.1
9.8
9.6
4.9
3.5
7.1
4.6
- Real estate & renting
6.3
9.4
3.1
-2.1
5.7
2.7
-8.4
-7.5
-7.7
-6.9
-1.8
- Business services
2.9
5.0
9.0
4.6
8.0
7.7
3.2
0.1
0.1
-2.6
-4.8
- Financial & insurance services
- Educational services
10.8
2.6
2.2
1.8
3.4
1.9
-0.5
2.3
-4.0
2.4
1.4
- Healthcare & social welfare services
6.0
9.4
9.4
6.3
6.1
6.8
6.1
6.5
6.8
5.4
7.0
- Entertainment, cultural & sports services
2.9
0.5
6.3
2.2
2.5
0.4
1.7
4.3
9.7
-2.7
-2.6
- Membership organizations
3.8
2.7
0.1
-0.1
1.9
1.0
-1.4
-1.8
-1.1
-3.5
-3.3
- Sewerage & waste management
0.4
6.5
4.9
5.7
8.9
6.9
3.9
3.7
0.3
7.8
-0.4
1. Preliminary
Service output growth in February 2009 continues with a weak pace as it was in January. Private consumption (y-o-y, %) 3.4 (Q1 2008)
20
March 2009
2.3 (Q2)
1.1 (Q3)
-4.4 (Q4)
l es
l&
tate
ncia
& re
ranc
e se
ns
bus iness f ines acil s su ities ppo ma rt se nag rvic eme nt & es Edu cati ona l se rvic es Hea l t h serv care ices & s ocia l we lfar e Ente serv rtainm ices ent , cu ltur al & spo Me rts othe mbersh r pe ip o rson rgan al s izati ervi ons Sew ces , re pair reco erage, & very was & re te m med ana iatio gem n ac ent, tivit mate ies rials
es
atio
rvic
unic
s
omm
rant
tail
insu
&c
stau
tion
& re
ion
& re
ntin g Prof e s tech sion nica al, s l se cien rvic tifi c& es Bus
Rea
Fina
ale
rtat
rma
els
Info
Hot
spo
oles
Tran
Wh
ex
7-3
l ind
7-2
Tota
7-1 Service industry
Source: Korea National Statistical Office (service industry activity trend)
Wholesale and retail sales
Source: Korea National Statistical Office (service industry activity trend)
Jan 2009 service industry by business
Source: Korea National Statistical Office (service industry activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
21
8. Employment The number of workers on payroll in January 2009 declined 103,000 year-on-year affected by weak domestic demand and decreased exports. It was the fastest fall since September 2003 when the number of employed dropped 189,000. Employment in the manufacturing sector dropped 127,000 after decreasing 133,000 in the previous month, mainly due to falling exports. Hiring in the construction sector also decreased 41,000 compared with the fall of 48,000 a month earlier. Employment in the service sector increased mere 53,000 after climbing 162,000 a month earlier as wholesale & retail sales and hotels & restaurants continued to shed jobs with those employed in the sector declining 94,000. (Change from same period in previous year, thousand) 2008
2009
Annual
Jan
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Nov
Dec
Jan
Employment growth
145
235
209
173
141
54
78
-12
-103
- Manufacturing
-52
-25
-18
-34
-52
-103
-86
-133
-127
- Construction
-37
-8
-22
-46
-40
-41
-32
-48
-41
- Services
263
324
307
300
262
187
150
162
53
- Agriculture, forestry and fishery
-37
-64
-63
-54
-38
8
42
4
15
By status of workers, the growth in the number of wage workers sharply decelerated to 21,000. The number of temporary or daily workers, in particular, shrank significantly by 267,000 from a year earlier, although that of regular workers increased by 287,000. (Change from same period in previous year, thousand) 2008
2009
Annual
Jan
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Nov
Dec
Jan
Employment growth
145
235
209
173
141
54
78
-12
-103
- Wage workers
236
376
312
289
208
137
159
86
21
• Regular
386
433
435
448
347
316
318
318
287
workers
-150
-57
-123
-159
-140
-179
-159
-232
-267
- Non-wage workers
-92
-141
-102
-115
-66
-83
-81
-97
-123
• Self-employed
-79
-136
-79
-67
-76
-95
-83
-93
-112
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.3
3.6
59.5
58.3
58.5
60.3
59.9
59.4
59.9
58.4
57.3
• Temporary
or daily workers
workers
Unemployment rate (%) Employment rate (%)
The employment rate stood at 57.3 percent, down 1.0 percentage point compared to the same month of the previous year. The unemployment rate rose 0.3 percentage points yearon-year to 3.6 percent, while that of youths aged 15 to 29 was up 1.1 percentage points from a year earlier to 8.2 percent.
22
March 2009
8-1
Number of employed and employment growth Source: Korea National Statistical Office (employment trend)
8-2
Share of employed by industry Source: Korea National Statistical Office (employment trend)
8-3
Unemployment rate and number of unemployed Source: Korea National Statistical Office (employment trend)
Economic Bulletin
23
9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market The Korean stock market in February 2009 had a bearish run as the investment sentiment weakened on heightened concerns over the international financial market and the won’s depreciation fueled by the global economic downturn and possible insolvency of financial institutions. Foreign investors turned their positions into net-sellers of Korean shares as they withdrew their money amid the global financial woes. Net buying of Korean shares by foreign investors in the KOSPI market (trillion won) 0.9 (Dec 2008)
0.8 (Jan 2009)
-0.9 (Feb) (End-period, point, trillion won)
KOSPI
Stock price index
KOSDAQ
2008
Feb 2009
Change
1,124.4
1,063.0
576.9 5.1
Market capitalization Average daily trade value
2008
Feb 2009
Change1
-61.4 (-5.5%)
332.0
363.2
31.2 (+9.4%)
547.1
-29.8 (-5.2%)
46.1
51.5
5.4 (+11.7%)
4.4
-0.7 (-7.8%)
1.2
1.7
0.5 (+4.2%)
1
1. Change from the end of previous year
9.2 Exchange rate The won/dollar exchange rate in February 2009 soared to wrap up the month at 1,534.0 won, higher than the annual peak of 1,513 won last year which was recorded on November 24. The exchange rate has fluctuated during the month as the international financial market jitters over the possible financial crisis stemming from Eastern Europe, while foreign investors continued their net selling of Korean shares, which amounted to around 1.2 trillion won. Concerns over an export decrease amid the international economic downturn also contributed to the unstable won. The won/yen exchange rate surged to the 1,570 won range despite worsening economic data of Japan leading to a weaker yen. (End-period) 2006
2007
2008
Dec
Dec
Dec
2009 Jan
Feb
Change1
Won/Dollar
929.8
936.1
1,259.5
1,379.5
1,534.0
-17.9
Won/100Yen
783.4
828.6
1,396.8
1,543.1
1,571.2
-11.1
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.
24
March 2009
9-1
Stock prices
9-2
Foreign exchange rate (month-end)
9-3
Recent foreign exchange rate
Economic Bulletin
25
9.3 Bond market Despite the Bank of Korea’s decision to lower the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points on February 12, 2009, Treasury bond yields were up in February amid concerns over the imbalance between supply and demand caused by a supplementary budget plan. The yields on CDs plunged as asset managers and brokerages increased purchases of CDs while CD issuances by domestic banks slowed down. (End-period) 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Jan
Feb
Change1
Call rate (1 day)
3.29
3.76
4.60
5.02
3.02
2.41
1.87
-115
CD (91 days)
3.43
4.09
4.86
5.82
3.93
2.96
2.49
-144
Treasury bonds (3 yrs)
3.28
5.08
4.92
5.74
3.41
3.59
3.82
41
Corporate bonds (3 yrs)
3.72
5.52
5.29
6.77
7.72
7.29
6.60
-17
Treasury bonds (5 yrs)
3.39
5.36
5.00
5.78
3.77
4.07
4.57
80
1. Basis point changes in January 2009 from end December 2008
9.4 Money supply & money market The year-on-year M2 (monthly average) growth in December 2008 decelerated slightly to 13.1 percent from the same month of the previous year. The modest slowdown was mainly attributed to continued money outflow in the overseas sector by foreign investors’ net selling of Korean shares and decelerated growth in private credits such as corporate loans. (Percentage change from same period in previous year, period average) 2006
2007
2008
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Dec
9.1
8.1
9.4
9.8
8.3
4.8
2.9
4.1
4.8
5.5
5.5
323.7
M1
2
Dec1
M2
8.3
11.2
11.5
11.0
11.1
11.2
13.3
15.3
14.7
13.8
13.1
1,436.3
Lf 3
7.9
10.2
10.0
10.2
10.2
10.5
11.6
12.8
12.1
11.24
10.44
1,863.95
1. Balance at end December 2008, trillion won 2. Excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3) 4. Preliminary 5. Balance at end November 2008, trillion won
In January 2009, bank deposits decreased considerably as the funds in the market continued to reverse its course to non-bank financial institutions from banks which lowered deposit rates. Asset management company (AMC) receipts expanded considerably as short-term idle money of individual investors and financial institutions flocked to money market funds (MMFs) paying relatively higher interests. (Monthly change, end-period, trillion won) 2007
2008
2009
Annual
Dec
Annual
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Jan1
Bank deposits
51.0
-4.3
95.5
21.6
9.0
-11.1
-5.4
901.0
AMC deposits
61.8
-0.4
63.5
2.4
2.8
13.3
19.0
379.0
1. Balance at end January 2009, trillion won
26
March 2009
9-4
Interest rates Source: The Bank of Korea
9-5
Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea
9-6
Share of deposits by financial sector (M3 as of year-end) Source: The Bank of Korea * Retail finance: Mutual savings banks & National Credit Union Federation of Korea, Others: Investment banks, post office savings, etc.
Economic Bulletin
27
10. Balance of payments South Korea in January 2009 posted a current account deficit of US$1.36 billion, shifting from a surplus for the first time in four months. The deficit was, however, smaller than expected. The goods account was US$1.46 billion in deficit after posting a US$1.10 billion deficit in the previous month due to the global economic recession, reduced working days from the Lunar New Year holidays, and seasonal factors such as increased energy imports during the winter. The service account registered a deficit of US$710 million, down from a US$2.14 billion deficit a year earlier, as the business service deficit shrank significantly while the travel account turned to a modest surplus. The income account recorded a US$560 million surplus, a similar level to the previous month. It posted US$770 million in the same month of the previous year. The current transfer account registered a US$250 million surplus extending its surplus trend for four consecutive months as Korean residents overseas remitted more money to their home country amid the won’s depreciation. A year earlier, it recorded a US$290 million deficit. (US$ billion) 2008
2009
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Nov
Dec
Jan
Current account
-6.41
-5.21
-0.13
-8.58
7.52
1.91
0.86
-1.36
- Goods balance
5.99
-1.22
5.72
-3.48
4.97
0.84
1.50
-1.46
- Service balance
-16.73
-5.07
-4.27
-5.69
-1.70
-0.13
-1.52
-0.71
- Income balance
5.11
1.69
-0.65
1.38
2.71
0.72
0.58
0.56
- Current transfers
-0.77
0.61
-0.94
-0.77
1.55
0.47
0.31
0.25
The capital and financial account balance reversed its course to a net inflow of US$4.86 billion after having posted net outflows for the fourth straight month since September 2008. The portfolio investment account showed a net inflow of US$6.01 billion as domestic banks raised dollar funds in massive offshore bond issuances. The other investment account registered a net outflow of US$990 million due to a larger repayment of foreign borrowings by financial institutions, which offset an increase in nonresident deposits. Capital & financial account balance (US$ billion) 0.41 (Jan 2008), -24.83 (Oct)
-12.14 (Nov)
-4.83 (Dec)
4.86 (Jan 2009)
The current account is likely to record a surplus of US$3.5 billion to US$4.0 billion in February 2009 as the trade balance posted a huge surplus of US$3.3 billion.
28
March 2009
10-1 Current account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-2 Travel balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-3 Capital & financial account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
Economic Bulletin
29
11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices Consumer prices rose by 4.1 percent year-on-year in February 2009, a shift to an increase for the first time in 7 months. The prices climbed by 0.7 percent from a month earlier. While public utility and personal service charges stabilized, increases in international prices of oil products and gold led to a rise in February consumer prices. Prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products were up 0.6 percent month-on-month. Prices of flowers, unripe hot peppers, onions, green peppers and mackerels soared as demand increased during the graduation season and stocks for the winter depleted. On the other hand, prices of strawberries, lettuce, and eggs declined. Prices of oil products and gold rings skyrocketed in line with higher international prices. Prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products in Feb 2009 (m-o-m, %) Flower (17.5), unripe hot pepper (27.7), onion (12.4), green pepper (35.6), mackerel (8.0), strawberry (-17.5), lettuce (-29.2), egg (-5.0)
Prices of oil products in Feb 2009 (m-o-m, %) Gasoline (10.9), diesel (1.3), kerosene (1.9), LPG for automobiles (-0.1), LPG for kitchen use (-0.1)
Consumer price inflation in major sectors Total
Agricultural, livestock & fishery Industrial products products
Oil products
Gold rings
Public utility
Housing rents
Personal services
6.2
14.6
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.00
0.00
0.06
1.8
2.1
4.4
0.30
0.20
1.54
Month-on-Month (%)
0.7
0.6
1.7
Contribution (%p)
0.72
0.06
0.53
Year-on-Year (%)
4.1
5.4
5.0
-8.5
Contribution (%p)
4.10
0.46
1.55
-0.52
0.32
0.15 49.5 0.40
Core consumer prices, which exclude the prices of oil and agricultural products, rose by 5.2 percent year-on-year. Consumer prices for basic necessities, a barometer of perceived consumer prices, were up 3.3 percent compared to the same month of the previous year.
Consumer price inflation 2008
2009
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Month-on-Month (%)
0.4
0.9
0.6
0.8
0.6
0.7
-0.2
0.1
-0.1
-0.3
0.0
0.1
0.7
Year-on-Year (%)
3.6
3.9
4.1
4.9
5.5
5.9
5.6
5.1
4.8
4.5
4.1
3.7
4.1
Core consumer prices (y-o-y)
2.8
3.3
3.5
3.9
4.3
4.6
4.7
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.6
5.2
5.2
(m-o-m)
0.4
1.1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.2
0.4
Consumer prices for basic necessities (y-o-y)
4.6
4.9
5.1
5.9
7.0
7.1
6.6
5.5
4.8
4.0
3.0
2.8
3.3
30
March 2009
11-1 Prices Source: Korea National Statistical Office (consumer prices, core inflation) & The Bank of Korea (producer prices)
11-2 Consumer price inflation Source: Korea National Statistical Office (consumer price trend)
11-3 Contribution to consumer price inflation Source: Korea National Statistical Office (consumer price trend)
Economic Bulletin
31
11.2. International oil and commodity prices Despite the OPEC’s aggressive cut in output, international oil prices in February 2009 fell slightly due to decreased demand amid the global economic recession and increased oil reserve in the US. The price of WTI crude fell below US$40 a barrel with expected lower demand from aggravated US economic indicators. (US$/barrel, period average) 2006
2007
2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Annual
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Dubai crude
61.6
68.4
94.3
112.9
96.3
67.7
49.9
40.5
44.1
43.1
Brent crude
65.1
72.8
97.5
113.5
98.2
72.0
52.7
40.4
43.6
43.2
WTI crude
66.0
72.3
99.9
116.6
103.7
76.6
57.3
41.6
41.8
39.2
Record high oil prices (spot prices, US$/barrel) Dubai crude: 141 (Jul 4, 2008), Brent crude: 145 (Jul 3), WTI crude: 146 (Jul 14)
Oil product prices in the domestic market went up from the previous month along with the adjustment of market supply and demand after a plunge in international oil product prices. Won depreciation, the end of temepoary oil tax reduction and a scheduled rise in quota tariffs also contributed to a price increse of domestic oil products. International gasoline prices (US$/barrel) 49.1 (Jan 2009)
55.5 (Feb)
Won/dollar exchange rate (KR /US$) 1,346 (Jan 2009)
1,429 (Feb) (Won/liter, period average)
2006
2007
(Won/liter, period 2009average)
2008
Annual
Annual
Annual
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Gasoline prices
1,492
1,526
1,692
1,785
1,716
1,687
1,514
1,329
1,352
1,486
Diesel prices
1,228
1,273
1,614
1,766
1,664
1,602
1,416
1,303
1,305
1,322
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Overall international prices of major non-ferrous metals and grain were down month-onmonth in February due to a rise in inventories and concerns that the global economic condition would deteriorate further hit by the looming economic crisis in Eastern Europe. Prices of non-ferrous metals fell due to the uncertainty about economic recovery. Prices of grain also moved downwards as supply and demand conditions are expected to improve with the possible slump in demand worldwide and better weather conditions in South America. Prices of non-ferrous metals and grain in Feb 2009 (m-o-m, %) Corn (-7.4), wheat (-9.2), soybean (-6.5), bronze (2.8), nickel (-8.8), aluminum (-5.5), zinc (-6.4), lead (-2.0), tin (-4.0)
Reuters index*
(Period average)
2006
2007
2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Annual
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
2,019
2,400
2,536
2,663
2,512
2,127
1,965
1,767
1,890
1,8931
* A weighted average index of 17 major commodities 1. A similar level to the previous month helped by price increases in gold (up 9.8%), naphtha (up 15%) and raw sugar (up 6.7%).
32
March 2009
11-4 International oil prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
11-5 International oil prices (Dubai crude) and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation & Korea Customs Service
11-6 International commodity prices Source: Bloomberg (CRB) & The Bank of Korea (Reuters index) * CRB demonstrates futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry.
Economic Bulletin
33
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market In February 2009, apartment sales prices decreased at a slower pace of 0.3 percent compared with a 0.7 percent fall in the previous month. The Gangnam area, in particular, turned to an increase for the first time in five months due to bargain hunting and higher demand ahead of the start of a new semester at schools. Apartment sales prices in the area rose 0.2 percent month-on-month.
Nationwide apartment sales prices 2005
2006
(Percentage change from previous period)
2007
2008
Annual Annual Annual Annual
2009
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Feb 21
Feb 91
Feb 161 Feb 231
Nationwide
5.9
13.8
2.1
2.3
-0.1
-0.5
-0.9
-0.7
-0.3
-0.09
-0.07
-0.04
-0.04
Seoul
9.1
24.1
3.6
3.2
-0.3
-0.8
-1.6
-0.9
-0.2
0.00
-0.13
0.01
0.01
13.5
27.6
0.5
-1.9
-0.5
-1.2
-2.0
-1.1
0.2
0.14
-0.01
0.08
0.06
3.2
19.0
8.3
9.4
-0.1
-0.4
-1.3
-0.7
-0.6
-0.16
-0.27
-0.08
-0.05
Gangnam
2
Gangbuk3
1. Weekly trends 2. Upscale area of southern Seoul Source: Kookmin Bank
3. Northern Seoul
The average rental prices in February were down 0.3 percent after falling 1.2 percent in the previous month, as the moving season began. As for Seoul, the price shifted to a rise of 0.2 percent with the Gangman area showing an increase of 0.7 percent.
Nationwide apartment rental prices 2005
2006
(Percentage change from previous period)
2007
2008
Annual Annual Annual Annual
2009
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Feb 21
Feb 91
Feb 161 Feb 231
Nationwide
5.7
7.6
1.9
0.8
0.2
-0.4
-1.4
-1.2
-0.3
-0.10
-0.03
0.04
0.02
Seoul
6.2
11.5
2.2
-1.8
-0.2
-1.0
-2.7
-1.7
0.2
0.08
0.05
0.24
0.15
Gangnam2
8.6
11.3
0.5
-3.6
-0.6
-1.2
-2.9
-1.8
0.7
0.27
0.19
0.37
0.21
Gangbuk
2.9
11.8
4.6
0.5
0.2
-0.7
-2.4
-1.5
-0.4
-0.15
-0.12
0.10
0.06
3
1. Weekly trends 2. Upscale area of southern Seoul Source: Kookmin Bank
3. Northern Seoul
Apartment sales transactions in January 2009 declined to 49,000 from the previous month’s 57,000, extending its downward streak.
Apartment sales transactions 2006
2007
2008
Annual Annual Annual 94
84
74
Source: Korea Land Corporation
34
(Monthly average, thousand)
March 2009
2009
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
80
70
88
97
82
85
84
63
61
68
54
57
49
12-1 Real estate prices Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
12-2 Weekly apartment sales prices and monthly transaction volume Source: Kookmin Bank (weekly APT price trend) & Korea Land Corporation (monthly land trade trend)
12-3 Apartment prices by region Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
Economic Bulletin
35
12.2 Land market Nationwide land prices in January 2009 decreased for the second consecutive month in all 249 cities, counties and districts. The pace of decline, however, decelerated significantly to 0.75 percent from 2.72 percent a month earlier as land prices fell in the Seoul metropolitan area significantly slower than from the previous month. The fall of land prices in Seoul and Incheon decelerated to 0.91 percent and 0.92 percent respectively from 3.48 percent and 3.74 percent in the previous month. In the Gyeonggi province, land prices fell 1.02 percent in January after decreasing 3.13 percent a month earlier.
Land prices by region
(Percentage change from previous period)
2005
2007
2006
Annual Annual Annual
2008
2009
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan
Nationwide
4.98
5.61
3.88
0.96
0.79
0.91
1.15
-0.31
1.23
1.46
1.18
-4.08
-0.75
Seoul
6.56
9.17
5.88
1.38
1.07
1.40
1.90
-1.00
1.83
2.17
1.59
-6.34
-0.91
Gyeonggi
5.69
5.07
4.22
1.07
0.89
1.05
1.14
-0.26
1.28
1.57
1.28
-4.28
-1.02
South Chungcheong
8.32
5.54
2.02
0.46
0.41
0.42
0.71
-0.11
0.75
0.83
0.95
-2.60
-0.55
Nationwide land transactions in January sustained an overall downward track, decreasing 28,000 land lots month-on-month to 134,000 land lots
Land sales transactions
(Monthly average, land lot, thousand)
2007
2008
Annual Annual Jan Nationwide
2009
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
208
208
216
190
237
269
248
244
245
175
173
191
149
162
134
Seoul
33
26
24
24
32
41
36
38
34
18
20
23
14
13
13
Gyeonggi
49
45
44
40
50
61
58
55
57
38
37
36
28
31
26
North Chungcheong
9
9
10
9
10
11
10
9
11
9
9
9
7
7
6
South Chungcheong
11
12
10
12
15
13
15
15
14
12
10
11
10
10
7
36
March 2009
12-4 Land and consumer prices since 1970s Source: Korea Land Corporation (land prices) & Korea National Statistical Office (consumer prices)
12-5 Land prices by region Source: Korea Land Corporation (land price trend)
12-6 Land trade volume Source: Korea Land Corporation (land trade trend)
Economic Bulletin
37
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators The cyclical indicator of coincident composite index, a barometer of current economic conditions, decreased 2.4 points in January 2009 from the previous month, staying on a downward track for the twelfth straight month. Seven components of the index, i.e., the number of non-farm payroll employment (down 0.2%), mining and manufacturing production index (down 6.5%), manufacturing operation ratio index (down 7.6%), service activity index (down 0.5%), wholesale & retail sales index (down 3.1%), domestic shipment index (down 5.4%), and volume of imports (down 4.0%) decreased. In the mean time, the value of construction completed (up 4.3%) increased. Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (m-o-m, p) -0.3 (Sep 2008)
-0.6 (Oct)
-1.9 (Nov)
-2.6 (Dec)
-2.4 (Jan 2009)
The year-on-year leading composite index, which foresees future economic conditions, went down for the fourteenth month in a row in January with a month-on-month decrease of 0.3 percentage points. Three out of all components of the index, i.e., liquidity in the financial institutions, spreads between long & short term interest rates, and net barter terms of trade were up while other components such as the capital goods imports and the ratio of job openings to job seekers significantly declined. Components of the leading composite index fell in Jan 2009 (m-o-m) Ratio of job openings to job seekers (-5.4%p), indicator of inventory cycle (-0.2%p), consumer expectations index (-1.0p), value of machinery orders received (-3.2%), capital goods imports (-12.8%), composite stock price index (-1.9%)
12 month smoothed change in leading composite index (m-o-m, %p) -0.5 (Sep 2008)
-0.9 (Oct)
-1.4 (Nov)
-1.0 (Dec)
-0.3 (Jan 2009)
Leading composite index 113.4 (Sep 2008)
112.7 (Oct)
111.3 (Nov)
110.4 (Dec)
110.1 (Jan 2009)
2008 Sep Coincident composite index (m-o-m, %)
Oct
2009 Nov
1
Dec
1
Jan1
0.2
-0.3
-1.4
-2.3
-2.1
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index
99.8
99.2
97.3
94.7
92.3
(m-o-m, p)
-0.3
-0.6
-1.9
-2.6
-2.4
Leading composite index (m-o-m, %)
-0.1
-0.6
-1.2
-0.8
-0.3
12 month smoothed change in leading composite index (%)
-0.9
-1.8
-3.2
-4.2
-4.5
(m-o-m, %p)
-0.5
-0.9
-1.4
-1.0
-0.3
1. Preliminary
38
March 2009
13-1 Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index Source: Korea National Statistical Office
13-2 Leading composite index Source: Korea National Statistical Office
13-3 Coincident and leading composite indices Source: Korea National Statistical Office
Economic Bulletin
39
Policy Issues Corporate Restructuring: Strategies and Plans
1. Background Amid the global economic crisis, with growing awareness of the importance of restructuring the overall economy in an effort to prevent financial defaults from spreading in the market, the Korean government decided to take restructuring measures that work quickly and effectively in the market. Unlike during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, the current market has not seen any major defaults, which makes it difficult for the government to push forward with one time, fullfledged corporate restructuring as it did back then. Also, as the global economy continues its downward trajectory, corporate restructuring programs are not expected to work as planned. Against this backdrop, the Korean government built a consensus over taking clear stances and establishing firm principles in pursuing corporate restructuring in order to maximize chances of successful restructuring. Officials from relevant ministries jointly worked to draft restructuring strategies and plans, and they were finalized on February 19, 2009 at the Presidential Economic Crisis Management Committee meeting.
2. Strategies Basically, the overall corporate sector is subject to on-going restructuring programs. Nonviable companies in construction and shipbuilding industries, whose restructuring has already begun, will be transformed quickly and decisively.
40
March 2009
To prepare for possibly worsening market conditions and accompanying corporate defaults, the government will have regulations and funds ready for any potential threat. Viable companies with strong growth potentials will be rendered full government support in terms of policies including fiscal measures. The government’s liquidity supply will help those companies lead Korea’s economic recovery and future economic growth.
3. Principles of corporate restructuring Creditor financial institutions will lead restructuring on the basis of the Corporate Restructuring Promotion Act. The Creditor Financial Institutions Committee, a group of private financial institutions, will have more authority to carry on with corporate restructuring constantly and expediently. In parallel with creditor-led restructuring, a ‘market-led corporate restructuring model’ will be introduced to encourage companies to voluntarily restructure themselves. The model will guide companies in following procedures such as asset sales or equity acquisition. One of the government’s main roles in overall restructuring processes is to provide assistance in terms of regulation. The government will grant tax exemptions and other deregulations necessary for effective market-led corporate restructuring. To facilitate bank recapitalization and the purchase of NPLs, legal provisions will be laid out along with fiscal and tax support. Directions for future corporate restructuring will be drafted with ministries related to the industries subject to restructuring in order to fully reflect concerns regarding increasing overall competitiveness of the industries and minimizing negative impact on public welfare.
4. Key action plans A. Current restructuring programs As for non-viable companies in construction and shipbuilding industries which are already under creditor-led restructuring, the government will complete plans by the end of March to support them back to normal business operations. Those excluded from the first round of restructuring are subject to credit risk assessments at the end of March. Follow-up plans will accompany the assessments. The Economic Financial Support Committee, a joint committee of officials from related ministries, will watch industries and decide on those in need of urgent restructuring. The
Economic Bulletin
41
committee is also in charge of monitoring the proceedings of restructuring and reflecting them on restructuring support programs. As for large corporations, creditor banks will evaluate the overall financial status of 44 large corporate borrowers under the top 10 chaebols by reviewing their annual financial reports of up to the year end of 2008. If the borrowers fail to meet the standards the creditors set, they have to conclude MOUs of financial structure improvement plans with creditor banks, which incorporate sales of assets and subsidiaries, among others. To closely monitor and assist creditor banks in leading corporate restructuring, the government will give more authority to the task force teams formed to support corporate restructuring.
B. Market-led restructuring model To accelerate sales of assets and subsidiaries of the companies under restructuring, the Korean government will establish corporate restructuring funds. The government will also encourage private funds to be a part of market-led restructuring by involving Korea Development Bank in the efforts and providing legal basis to PEFs (Private Equity Fund). To ensure the successful and smooth operation of corporate restructuring, the government will supply Bank Recapitalization Funds of 20 trillion won: 10 trillion won from the Bank of Korea, 2 trillion won from Korea Development Bank, and 8 trillion won from institutional and public investors. Banks’ liquidity support for corporate restructuring will be one of the major factors affecting banks’ access to the fund. KAMCO (Korea Asset Management Corporation) will complete the purchase of NPLs of project financing from mutual savings banks by end-March: the remaining 800 billion won worth of NPLs out of targeted 1.3 trillion won. KAMCO, then, will liquidate banks’ NPLs of project financing through April and May, along with bad loans to households and some corporations. The government will authorize KAMCO to set up corporate restructuring funds for NPL clearance by providing legal basis such as Asset Management Corporation Act at the end of March. The government will also support corporate restructuring with fiscal assistance and tax benefits. For instance, it will seek ways to increase the base capital of KAMCO in order to improve its capacity to purchase NPLs. As for taxation, financial institutions subject to capital gain taxes imposed on NPL transactions will be allowed to pay them in installments. Losses from writing off bad loans can be deductible as necessary expenses.
42
March 2009
Korean Government’s Response to Prolonged Global Financial Market Instability
Current financial situation While concerns over a recurrence of the global financial crisis are mounting as Eastern European financial markets become unstable and the economic recession deepens, some view that Korea may suffer foreign currency liquidity shortages. However, Korea’s chances of experiencing another foreign currency liquidity shortage are slim. First, the country is expecting a current account surplus of US$13 billion this year due to a fall in imports and improvement in travel accounts. Second, the level of foreign debt has been on a downward trajectory for the past few months, recording US$380.5 billion as of December 2008, lower than US$383.2 billion at the end of 2007. Of the total debt, US$102.7 billion is repayment free, based on forward trading, and the ratio of short-term debt to total external debt has decreased from 45 percent in September 2008 to 39 percent at the end of 2008. Lastly, Korea is not going to see foreign capital flight witnessed in 2008. Foreign net buying recorded a 3.1 percent rise between January 2009 and February 24. Korea has enough foreign liquidity to handle external financial difficulties: It has foreign currency reserves of US$201.7 billion and secured US$90 billion from three currency swap lines with the US, Japan, and China. Furthermore, the Korean government introduces the following measures to respond proactively to possibly worsening financial conditions and also pre-empt misunderstandings or rumors in the market.
Measures First, banks and public firms as well as the government will take actions to obtain foreign l i q u i d it y : The Korean government plans to issue US$6 billion of Foreign Exchange Stabilization Bond both for the first and second half of 2009 before the private sector takes over the issuance. The government will also provide guarantees to banks and pubic firms to facilitate their foreign borrowing and bond issuance. D e r e g u l a t i o n w i l l b e p u r s u e d t o p r o m o t e i n b o u n d f o r e i g n c a p i t a l : To draw foreign investments into government bonds, taxation on interest earnings will be revised to match global standards: There will be no more corporate and income withholding taxes on interest earnings. To attract external capital to foreign currency deposit accounts and fund products of domestic financial institutions, tax incentives will be offered on these investments.
Economic Bulletin
43
Inbound remittances in foreign currencies will be exempted from reporting obligations to the National Tax Service starting March if they are deposited as term deposits in Korean banks. Also, online certificates of entry and exit can be presented when opening non-residential bank accounts. Taxes will be exempted on capital gains from bond trading. Overseas Koreans will receive tax breaks specifically designed for them. Revisions of laws to offer capital gain tax exemptions to new home buyers are ready to be submitted during the April National Assembly session in order to give overseas home buyers the same tax benefit as local residents receive: capital gain tax exemptions for five years since the purchase of new homes. Overseas Korean investors can receive tax reductions of up to 100 million won on dividend earnings from trading new home purchase funds when the related laws are passed in the April National Assembly session. Furthermore, withholding tax rates on dividend earnings will be lowered from 20 percent to five percent if conditions are met, and overseas Koreans do not need to register as foreign investors or open exclusive accounts for investment, if related revisions pass the April National Assembly. Corporations will be applied less tight restrictions when taking on external debts and issuing bonds overseas. Even if overseas borrowing may raise corporations’ debt to equity ratios, by law the increased ratios will not negatively affect business performance assessments. Second, the Korean government will seek global cooperation at the London G-20 summit meeting scheduled for April 2 in order to collaborate on macroeconomic policies with the member countries, stabilize the international financial system, and work for a global “standstill” on protectionism. As the 2010 chair country, Korea will actively participate in G-20 cooperation efforts. Financial cooperation with the US, Japan and China, countries with bilateral swap agreements with Korea, will become closer along with efforts to upgrade the CMI (Chiang Mai Initiative) to multilateral partnership among ASEAN+3 countries. Third, the government will enhance communications with foreign investors through overseas IRs scheduled to be held in Tokyo, London, New York and Frankfurt during the first half of 2009. The government will give accurate information on the Korean economy to the domestic and foreign press in order for them not to misunderstand the current foreign exchange situation: one example being the rumor called ‘March financial crisis’. Fourth, a stable current account surplus is based on exports. To promote exports, the Korean government will offer full-scale support through public-private collaboration. Expansionary support for export insurance will be under examination from 130 trillion won in 2008 to 190 trillion won this year. The government will consider investing some of the supplementary budget in Korea Export Insurance Corporation to help insure exports. Measures to raise the competitiveness of service industries, medical and educational industries among others, will be adopted to found a firm ground for foreign currency inflows. Also, the government will review deregulating restrictions on foreign investments to encourage inbound educational investments by foreign educational institutions.
44
March 2009
Economic News Briefing
S. Korea stepping up economic and energy cooperation with AsiaPacific countries South Korean President Lee Myung-bak agreed with state leaders of New Zealand, Australia and Indonesia to expand substantial cooperation in the field of energy and resources, to boost collaboration for “low carbon, green growth,” as well as to stand shoulder to shoulder in combating the global economic slowdown. Also, President Lee Myung-bak during his seven-day visit to three southern Pacific countries on March 2 to 8, agreed respectively with New Zealand Prime Minister John Key and Australia’s Prime Minister Kevin Rudd to begin bilateral FTA negotiations to augment bilateral trade and investment. With Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, President Lee on March 6 had an in-depth discussion on their cooperation including bilateral efforts for the extension of a contract to develop oil fields in West Madura, Indonesia, securing an additional 200,000 hectares of forested areas for South Korean businesses in the Southeast Asian country. The Korean President announced in Indonesia on March 8 a “New Asia Initiative” aimed at boosting Korea’s diplomatic and economic influence through closer relations with countries in the fast growing continent. The initiative also envisages Korea concluding FTAs with all Asian countries and establishing a green growth belt in the Asian-Pacific region.
Economic Bulletin
45
Meanwhile, President Lee Myung-bak and his Iraqi counterpart, President Jalal Talabani, signed a memorandum of understanding on February 24 in Seoul, under which Iraq would grant Korea the right to develop oil field in its Basra region. In exchange, Korea will support the establishment of the necessary social infrastructure to rebuild the Iraqi economy.
President Lee’s 2nd year to focus on economic reinvigoration The Lee Myung-bak administration in 2009 will devote itself to rejuvenating the nation’s sluggish economy and creating new growth engines, the presidential office said marking the first anniversary of the President’s inauguration on February 25. Throughout Lee’s second year, the government will carry out its tasks under the motto of “turning the crisis into an opportunity,” Cheong Wa Dae said. The government expects the Korean economy to recover and make a turnaround in 2010, and plans to leave no stone unturned to make that happen. The government will keep momentum in green growth, reform of public organizations, deregulation, and corporate restructuring. It will also expand support for low income earners, enhance protection for contingent workers, maintain current levels of employment, and create more job opportunities, the presidential office said.
Korea, US pledge more robust alliance on Clinton’s visit to Korea President Lee Myung-bak emphasized the strength of the Korea-US alliance, while meeting with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at Cheong Wa Dae on February 20. During the meeting at his office, President Lee said to the top US diplomat that the strong alliance between the two countries should be maintained continuously. President Lee said that Korea’s close cooperation with the US, Japan, China and Russia is critically important in dealing with regional issues, including North Korea’s denuclearization. Secretary Clinton delivered US President Obama’s message that he was looking forward to meeting with President Lee at the upcoming G20 summit in London. Before her visit to Cheong Wa Dae, the top US diplomat met with Korea’s Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan. The two ministers called for North Korea to immediately scrap the nuclear programs and get back into inter-Korean dialogue without delay. The two diplomats pledged to collaborate to denuclearize North Korea in a complete and verifiable manner, assisted by the six-party talks.
46
March 2009
Yu and Clinton also agreed to closely cooperate in efforts for global economic recovery, a successful London G20 summit, Korea-US FTA ratification, and peacemaking in war-torn Afghanistan.
Enhanced job sharing efforts by labor, management, civic groups and the government Representatives from labor, management, civil society and government agreed to join forces to reinvigorate the sluggish economy by adopting a joint statement in Seoul on February 23. Under the statement, the four parties agreed to cooperate actively in sharing and retaining jobs to overcome the economic crisis. Labor circles will freeze, return or cut pay according to companies’ conditions in the course of overcoming the economic crisis while business circles will refrain from dismissing workers for managerial reasons in order to maintain existing levels of employment. In addition, labor and management will actively implement job sharing by taking various steps, which are appropriate for the situation of each workplace. Such measures include reforming shift work systems, reducing working hours, introducing and expanding wage peak systems, adopting unpaid leave, temporary shutting down of factories, providing training & education on leave, and allowing work from home. The government, on the other hand, will support burden-sharing efforts by labor and management, preferentially treat companies offering job sharing and actively expand the social safety net to protect vulnerable groups who most suffer from the economic crisis. Meanwhile, as part of efforts to increase job opportunities, salaries for new college graduates at state-run companies will be slashed by up to 30 percent, the Ministry of Strategy and Finance said at the eighth meeting for emergency economic measures on February 19. The salary cut plan also aims at narrowing the pay gap between state-run and private companies, as there has been a mismatch in labor market since public companies provide more job stability as well as higher salaries.
ASEAN+3 agree on expanded US$120b currency swaps The Finance Ministers of China, Japan, South Korea and the ASEAN (ASEAN+3) agreed at a special meeting held on February 22 in Phuket, Thailand, to expand a currency swap agreement and to strength the economic monitoring amid the global economic crisis.
Economic Bulletin
47
The Asian financial leaders agreed to boost funding for the Chiang Mai Initiative - an agreement forged after the Asian financial crisis to address foreign reserve deficits through currency swaps - from the initially agreed US$80 billion to US$120 billion. China, Japan and South Korea will provide about 80 percent of the currency pool with the 10 Association of Southeast Asian nations contributing the rest. The finance ministers also decided to establish an independent regional surveillance unit to strengthen economic monitoring. After the surveillance mechanism becomes fully effective in its function, the access to the pool of common reserve will be eased. Until now, about 80 percent of the pool has been accessible only with IMF agreements. The IMF de-linked portion may be increased above the current limit of 20 percent. The agreements would be formulized at an ASEAN+3 finance ministers’ meeting in May.
S. Korea aims to attract US$12.5 billion in FDI South Korea plans to make concerted efforts to create better investment environment and system to attract up to US$12.5 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) this year, according to the government’s foreign investment committee on February 13. In order to back the plan, the government selects projects that are attractive for foreign investors and establishes a task force for each project by the end of February. The government will appeal to foreign investors for its potential to foster innovative projects, and speed up revising laws to ease restrictions imposed on foreign investors, while offering various incentives.
Korean banks’ borrowing in foreign currency As of end-January, Korean banks’ borrowing in foreign currencies, which is calculated based on the amount borrowed that actually becomes a burden on domestic banks in terms of their solvency, totaled at US$92.6 billion, out of which US$38.3 billion is scheduled to mature within this year. In addition to the total external borrowing by Korean banks, US$67.76 billion, the total amount of US$92.6 billion include foreign-invested banks’ loans and domestic interbank loans in foreign currencies. (US$ billion)
Borrowing in foreign currencies
48
March 2009
Balance
Amount maturing within 2009
92.6
38.3
Statistical Appendices Tables & Figures 1. National accounts 2. Production, shipment and inventory 3. Production capacity and operation ratio 4. Consumer goods sales index 5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment, and estimated facility investment index 7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received 8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI 9. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates
Economic Bulletin
49
1. National accounts (year-on-year change, %, 2000 constant prices) Real GDP Period
Gross fixed capital formation
Final consumption expenditure
Agri., fores. & fisheries
Manufacturing 7.6
7.6
6.6
5.3
7.5 -1.2
Construction
Facilities
2002
7.0
-3.5
2003
3.1
-5.3
5.5
-0.3
4.0
7.9
2004
4.7
9.2
11.1
0.4
2.1
1.1
3.8
2005
4.2
0.7
7.1
3.9
2.4
-0.2
5.7
2006
5.0
-1.5
8.5
4.8
3.6
-0.1
7.8
2007P
5.0
1.1
6.5
4.7
4.0
1.2
7.6
2008P
2.5
3.5
3.3
1.3
-1.9
-2.7
-2.0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007P
2008P
I
6.5
6.7
5.2
9.4
7.7
11.0
3.3
II
7.0
-2.7
6.2
8.5
7.3
6.0
8.0
III
6.8
-3.2
7.4
7.3
2.4
-2.4
9.1
IV
7.5
-5.5
11.4
5.3
9.1
8.4
9.6
I
3.8
-3.3
5.8
1.2
4.7
7.7
2.3
II
2.2
0.5
3.3
-0.6
4.2
7.9
-0.4
III
2.3
-7.8
4.2
-1.0
2.7
7.7
-4.6
IV
4.1
-6.9
8.6
-0.9
4.3
8.3
-2.0
I
5.4
10.1
11.9
-0.4
2.4
4.9
-0.1
II
5.7
4.2
13.6
0.7
4.7
3.8
6.4
III
4.7
4.3
11.7
0.1
2.9
1.0
6.8
IV
3.3
13.3
7.7
1.3
-1.1
-3.3
2.4
I
2.9
-0.1
5.4
2.0
0.5
-3.3
3.8
II
3.4
3.1
5.1
3.9
2.1
1.1
3.1
III
4.8
1.9
7.5
4.8
2.2
-0.1
5.0
IV
5.5
-0.5
10.1
4.9
4.3
0.4
10.8
I
6.3
2.8
10.1
5.4
4.2
1.1
7.1
II
5.2
-2.2
9.6
4.6
0.2
-5.3
7.5
III
5.0
-4.1
9.0
4.7
5.1
0.2
11.4
IV
4.2
-0.9
5.6
4.6
4.9
3.6
5.4
I
4.0
5.8
3.8
4.5
7.2
3.7
10.9
II
4.9
1.1
6.1
4.9
5.5
1.6
11.0
III
5.1
3.5
6.3
4.7
1.3
-0.1
2.3
IV
5.7
-0.7
9.5
4.8
2.9
0.4
6.5
I
5.8
2.0
9.3
3.5
0.5
-1.1
1.4
II
4.8
4.4
8.5
2.7
0.1
-1.2
0.7
III
3.8
1.4
6.3
1.7
1.4
-1.3
4.7
IV
-3.4
4.3
-9.2
-2.4
-8.4
-6.1
-14.0
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
50
March 2009
Growth rate by economic activity
Growth rate by expenditure on GDP
Economic Bulletin
51
2. Production, shipment and inventory See graphs 6-1, 6-3, 7-1, 7-2 & 7-3 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
Production index
2006 2007 2008P
Y-o-Y change (%)
Shipment index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Inventory index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Service production index
Y-o-Y change (%)
108.4 115.9 119.4
8.4 6.9 3.0
107.6 115.3 118.1
7.6 7.2 2.4
111.0 117.2 125.9
9.3 5.6 7.4
105.1 112.2 116.1
5.1 6.8 3.5
2006
I II III IV
105.3 108.1 106.4 113.8
10.5 9.0 9.9 4.8
104.2 107.6 106.0 112.8
8.8 8.1 9.4 4.5
108.6 110.0 109.5 111.0
9.3 11.7 11.1 9.3
101.0 104.0 104.8 110.0
5.6 5.2 4.6 4.9
2007
I II III IV
109.6 114.9 112.9 126.2
4.1 6.3 6.1 10.9
109.6 115.2 111.9 124.7
5.2 7.1 5.6 10.5
114.0 114.5 112.7 117.2
5.0 4.1 2.9 6.0
106.7 111.2 112.6 118.1
5.5 6.5 7.4 7.4
2008
I II III IVP
121.6 125.1 119.2 116.9
10.9 8.9 5.6 -11.3
119.6 122.8 117.8 112.1
9.1 6.6 5.3 -10.1
123.7 133.1 132.2 125.9
8.5 16.2 17.3 7.4
113.8 116.5 116.2 117.7
6.7 4.8 3.2 -0.3
2006
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
103.8 100.4 111.8 107.0 109.5 107.9 99.8 104.3 115.0 110.8 118.5 112.0
5.6 18.7 8.6 7.8 9.8 9.3 1.5 10.0 17.9 4.8 7.0 2.1
101.8 99.7 111.1 106.6 108.8 107.5 98.5 104.8 114.6 109.3 117.0 112.0
4.2 15.7 7.3 6.8 9.9 7.9 1.0 9.5 17.5 4.1 6.9 2.6
107.0 106.6 108.6 107.5 110.1 110.0 112.5 109.6 109.5 109.6 110.2 111.0
4.6 6.8 9.3 7.0 7.6 11.7 11.6 11.8 11.1 11.2 10.6 9.3
101.5 96.3 105.6 103.8 105.6 103.7 101.9 104.6 107.9 105.5 108.3 116.2
6.3 5.5 5.4 5.7 5.5 4.3 2.2 4.9 6.5 3.8 5.2 5.5
2007
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
112.8 100.2 115.7 113.8 115.8 115.1 113.4 113.7 111.6 128.6 127.6 122.5
8.7 -0.2 3.5 6.4 5.8 6.7 13.6 9.0 -3.0 16.1 7.7 9.4
110.3 101.7 116.8 114.6 116.0 114.9 112.6 112.5 110.6 126.3 126.1 121.6
8.3 2.0 5.1 7.5 6.6 6.9 14.3 7.3 -3.5 15.6 7.8 8.6
118.6 115.6 114.0 111.8 114.2 114.5 115.6 115.6 112.7 115.0 114.9 117.2
10.8 8.4 5.0 4.0 3.7 4.1 2.8 5.5 2.9 4.9 4.9 5.6
105.9 102.8 111.4 109.4 112.1 112.1 112.1 112.9 112.8 115.3 115.6 123.4
4.3 6.7 5.5 5.4 6.2 8.1 10.0 7.9 4.5 9.3 6.7 6.2
2008
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12P
126.0 110.9 127.8 126.1 126.1 123.1 123.1 115.8 118.6 126.2 110.0 99.6
11.7 10.7 10.5 10.8 8.9 7.0 8.6 1.8 6.3 -1.9 -13.8 -18.7
121.7 109.7 127.3 124.5 123.5 120.3 121.5 114.5 117.3 124.0 109.5 102.8
10.3 7.9 9.0 8.6 6.5 4.7 7.9 1.8 6.1 -1.8 -13.2 -15.5
123.9 124.4 123.7 124.8 128.9 133.1 132.4 132.3 132.2 135.1 133.4 125.9
4.5 7.6 8.5 11.6 12.5 16.2 14.5 14.4 17.3 17.5 16.1 7.4
114.2 109.3 118.0 116.3 117.7 115.5 116.8 115.1 116.8 116.9 113.9 122.2
7.8 6.3 5.9 6.3 5.0 3.0 3.9 1.9 3.5 1.4 -1.5 -1.0
2009
1P
93.7
-25.6
93.1
-23.5
124.4
0.4
113.2
-0.9
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
52
March 2009
3. Production capacity and operation ratio See graph 6-2
Period
2006 2007 2008P
Y-o-Y change (%)
Operation ratio index (2005=100)
Y-o-Y change (%)
Average operation ratio (%)
104.1 109.7 115.4
4.1 5.4 5.2
100.3 100.4 96.8
0.3 0.1 -3.6
80.0 80.1 77.2
Production capacity index (2005=100)
2006
I II III IV
102.9 103.6 104.0 105.8
4.8 4.2 3.7 3.6
99.3 101.9 97.9 102.0
2.4 0.9 1.3 -3.2
81.0 79.6 79.1 80.3
2007
I II III IV
107.5 108.3 110.2 112.6
4.5 4.5 6.0 6.4
97.2 102.6 96.2 105.5
-2.1 0.7 -1.7 3.4
78.9 79.9 80.1 81.3
2008
I II III IVP
114.0 115.3 116.0 116.5
6.0 6.5 5.3 3.5
98.9 102.7 95.1 90.6
1.7 0.1 -1.1 -14.1
80.8 80.4 78.3 69.3
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
102.7 102.8 103.3 103.3 103.8 103.8 103.7 103.9 104.4 105.4 105.8 106.1
4.9 4.8 4.9 4.3 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5
97.3 95.0 105.6 100.8 103.0 101.8 91.6 95.3 106.9 99.8 107.3 98.8
-3.4 11.5 0.4 -0.8 2.1 1.3 -7.5 1.2 10.8 -4.5 -0.6 -4.6
81.6 80.8 80.3 78.3 80.0 80.1 75.2 80.1 81.7 81.7 80.9 78.9
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.2 107.5 107.7 107.9 108.2 108.9 109.7 110.2 110.8 112.3 112.5 113.0
4.4 4.6 4.3 4.5 4.2 4.9 5.8 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.3 6.5
99.8 88.2 103.6 101.5 103.9 102.5 98.3 96.6 93.8 109.4 107.4 99.7
2.6 -7.2 -1.9 0.7 0.9 0.7 7.3 1.4 -12.3 9.6 0.1 0.9
78.5 79.5 78.8 78.8 80.5 80.4 80.6 81.1 78.6 81.9 81.0 80.9
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12P
113.8 113.8 114.3 114.7 115.5 115.7 115.7 116.0 116.2 116.3 116.3 116.8
6.2 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.7 6.2 5.5 5.3 4.9 3.6 3.4 3.4
102.9 89.2 104.6 104.2 103.0 100.8 99.4 91.9 94.1 103.8 89.1 78.9
3.1 1.1 1.0 2.7 -0.9 -1.7 1.1 -4.9 0.3 -5.1 -15.6 -23.1
81.3 80.2 80.9 81.0 80.0 80.2 79.2 78.4 77.3 77.0 68.4 62.3
2009 1P
116.7
2.5
73.0
-29.1
61.5
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
Economic Bulletin
53
4. Consumer goods sales index See graphs 2-2, 2-3, 2-4 & 2-5 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
2006 2007 2008P
Consumer goods sales index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Semi-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
104.0 109.4 110.4
4.0 5.2 0.9
113.8 125.2 127.1
13.8 10.0 1.5
104.0 108.1 105.5
4.0 3.9 -2.4
103.1 108.5 109.3
3.1 5.2 0.7
2006
I II III IV
101.3 103.8 99.9 111.1
5.1 5.3 3.0 3.0
102.6 110.8 114.3 127.6
15.4 13.2 12.7 14.1
94.8 108.5 90.8 121.9
6.4 5.4 4.1 0.9
102.2 104.0 101.9 104.2
4.6 4.4 0.3 3.0
2007
I II III IV
106.6 108.3 107.1 115.6
5.2 4.3 7.2 4.1
119.6 124.6 126.0 130.6
16.6 12.5 10.2 2.4
99.9 110.1 94.1 128.5
5.4 1.5 3.6 5.4
106.6 107.6 110.5 109.4
4.3 3.5 8.4 5.0
2008
I Il III IVP
111.3 111.4 108.6 110.3
4.4 2.9 1.4 -4.6
131.0 135.5 126.0 115.9
9.5 8.7 0.0 -11.3
103.7 107.8 94.7 115.8
3.8 -2.1 0.6 -9.9
108.6 107.9 111.8 109.0
1.9 0.3 1.2 -0.4
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
105.8 93.9 104.3 102.7 105.4 103.3 96.2 97.9 105.6 106.2 109.6 117.5
10.4 0.9 4.0 5.0 5.5 5.2 -0.6 4.3 5.2 4.1 3.2 1.6
97.3 99.7 110.8 105.8 110.7 115.9 108.1 114.0 120.9 111.7 124.1 146.9
10.2 22.2 14.6 11.0 13.7 14.9 -2.0 14.0 28.6 9.1 10.7 21.5
93.7 86.6 104.2 111.6 114.2 99.8 91.5 77.8 103.1 114.5 124.6 126.7
6.8 4.8 7.3 6.0 5.4 5.1 3.5 4.7 4.4 -1.2 5.9 -1.6
109.8 92.6 104.2 101.6 105.0 105.4 96.9 103.7 105.2 105.0 101.1 106.6
13.3 -3.4 4.0 4.7 4.4 4.0 -0.4 2.4 -0.8 7.0 0.7 1.4
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
106.2 103.6 110.1 106.6 111.3 107.0 105.0 103.6 112.6 113.5 114.8 118.4
0.4 10.3 5.6 3.8 5.6 3.6 9.1 5.8 6.6 6.9 4.7 0.8
118.7 111.2 128.8 120.5 126.5 126.8 130.5 127.0 120.5 125.4 133.2 133.2
22.0 11.5 16.2 13.9 14.3 9.4 20.7 11.4 -0.3 12.3 7.3 -9.3
98.0 91.5 110.2 111.5 116.2 102.5 94.4 80.0 107.8 123.9 130.0 131.7
4.6 5.7 5.8 -0.1 1.8 2.7 3.2 2.8 4.6 8.2 4.3 3.9
104.4 107.4 108.1 105.0 110.3 107.4 105.3 109.6 116.7 109.3 106.6 112.2
-4.9 16.0 3.7 3.3 5.0 1.9 8.7 5.7 10.9 4.1 5.4 5.3
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12P
111.7 107.2 115.1 113.0 114.8 106.3 109.3 105.9 110.5 109.5 108.6 112.8
5.2 3.5 4.5 6.0 3.1 -0.7 4.1 2.2 -1.9 -3.5 -5.4 -4.7
129.5 118.7 144.8 140.6 137.6 128.2 141.1 121.5 115.4 124.4 109.0 114.4
9.1 6.7 12.4 16.7 8.8 1.1 8.1 -4.3 -4.2 -0.8 -18.2 -14.1
104.5 97.3 109.2 109.2 112.5 101.8 98.0 87.1 99.1 112.5 121.2 113.8
6.6 6.3 -0.9 -2.1 -3.2 -0.7 3.8 8.9 -8.1 -9.2 -6.8 -13.6
108.1 107.9 109.8 108.1 111.7 103.9 105.7 111.4 118.2 105.8 107.0 114.3
3.5 0.5 1.6 3.0 1.3 -3.3 0.4 1.6 1.3 -3.2 0.4 1.9
2009 1P
108.2
-3.1
103.9
-19.8
103.3
-1.1
113.5
5.0
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
54
March 2009
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index See graph 2-6
Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2005=100) Y-o-Y change (%)
Period
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Consumer sentiment index
2007
113.0
6.0
124.5
12.8
108.4
3.2
-
2008P
114.6
1.4
126.6
1.7
109.8
1.3
-
I
111.1
8.4
119.8
17.6
107.6
4.8
-
II
111.0
7.8
122.5
15.0
106.4
4.7
-
2007
2008
III
111.3
2.4
122.9
9.3
106.7
-0.5
-
IV
118.7
5.9
132.8
9.9
113.0
4.1
-
I
117.3
5.6
132.5
10.6
111.3
3.4
-
II
115.7
4.2
136.4
11.3
107.5
1.0
-
III
113.5
2.0
123.0
0.1
109.7
2.8
-
IVP
111.8
-5.8
114.4
-13.9
110.8
-1.9
-
2007 1
114.9
11.1
118.0
21.9
113.6
7.2
-
2
104.3
8.0
113.7
14.8
100.5
5.0
-
3
114.1
6.2
127.8
16.2
108.6
2.2
-
4
111.6
10.1
119.9
19.5
108.3
6.3
-
5
113.0
8.8
125.3
18.2
108.0
4.8
-
6
108.5
4.7
122.4
8.0
102.9
3.2
-
7
109.7
10.0
124.3
23.6
103.9
4.5
-
8
112.9
6.0
125.0
13.9
108.1
2.8
-
9
111.3
-7.1
119.5
-4.8
108.0
-8.0
-
10
121.6
11.6
136.4
17.4
115.7
9.1
-
11
118.0
2.4
131.8
7.5
112.4
0.2
-
12
116.4
2.9
130.2
7.6
110.9
0.7
-
2008 1
124.2
9.0
132.8
11.4
120.8
8.0
-
2
106.6
2.0
123.5
7.7
99.8
-0.5
-
3
121.0
5.4
145.3
12.3
111.2
2.3
-
4
120.5
7.3
145.5
20.1
110.5
1.7
-
5
116.9
2.5
138.7
9.3
108.1
-0.6
-
6
112.7
2.9
130.6
4.7
105.5
2.0
-
7
119.5
7.2
138.3
8.0
112.0
6.8
84
8
112.3
-1.4
120.4
-5.0
109.0
0.2
96
9
111.5
0.2
116.0
-2.9
109.7
1.6
96
10
119.5
-1.7
127.8
-6.3
116.2
0.4
88
11
107.0
-9.3
111.0
-15.8
105.5
-6.1
84
12P
109.0
-6.4
104.5
-19.7
110.8
-0.1
81
2009 1P
106.5
-14.9
99.0
-24.7
109.5
-10.8
84
-
-
-
-
-
-
85
2
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office & The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
55
6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment and estimated facility investment index See graph 3-2 Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant prices) Period
Estimated facility investment index (2000=100)
Domestic machinery shipment excluding ship (2005=100)
Total
Public
Private
34,143 32,279
2,205 2,312
31,938 29,966
14,671 14,695
127.2 123.1
114.5 114.5
I ll III IVP
10,196 8,506 7,519 6,056
372 537 354 1,049
9,824 7,969 7,165 5,007
5,429 3,650 3,393 2,197
126.7 130.8 125.3 109.4
111.7 120.6 113.9 112.0
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12P
3,810 3,044 3,343 2,914 2,659 2,933 3,153 2,330 2,037 2,371 1,813 1,872
149 68 155 95 90 351 179 87 88 399 207 444
3,661 2,976 3,188 2,819 2,585 2,601 2,974 2,243 1,949 1,972 1,607 1,429
2,197 1,723 1,510 1,302 1,101 1,264 1,392 1,114 887 939 668 590
120.2 118.2 141.6 135.6 128.7 128.2 131.5 123.5 120.9 113.4 107.8 107.1
106.3 102.9 125.9 119.6 122.1 120.0 119.6 108.3 113.8 112.5 108.2 115.2
2009 1P
1,988
227
1,761
782
89.8
84.6
2007 2008P 2008
Manufacturing
Y-o-Y change (%) 2007 2008P
21.1 -5.5
-11.2 4.9
24.2 -6.2
31.9 -15.8
9.2 -3.2
3.3 0.0
I ll III IV
25.2 8.4 -7.6 -39.5
8.8 83.7 -26.8 -3.5
25.9 5.5 -6.4 -43.9
40.2 -4.5 -20.3 -59.8
-0.7 -0.5 5.3 -16.2
1.3 0.6 6.5 -7.3
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12P
44.4 8.3 24.1 17.9 2.3 5.6 20.7 -3.9 -34.3 -36.5 -43.9 -38.5
67.8 -54.7 50.6 1.3 -1.5 228.9 5.3 -31.8 -52.7 348.0 -4.7 -43.2
43.5 11.8 23.0 18.5 2.5 -3.4 21.8 -2.4 -33.2 -45.9 -46.7 -36.8
69.8 23.9 27.0 6.8 -9.9 -9.8 12.3 -0.1 -53.3 -62.1 -63.8 -48.4
-1.5 -2.2 1.2 -1.8 -1.4 1.8 8.7 0.1 7.5 -7.7 -17.0 -23.0
1.8 0.2 1.6 4.4 -0.8 -1.7 7.1 2.6 10.0 -1.0 -10.1 -10.4
2009 1P
-47.8
52.4
-51.9
-64.4
-25.3
-20.4
2008
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
56
March 2009
7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received See graphs 4-2 & 4-3 (current prices, billion won)
Period
2007 2008P
Type of order
Type of order
Private
Domestic construction orders received (total)
Public
Private
25,098 26,728
54,559 55,509
112,502 102,321
28,695 31,320
77,554 65,294
Value of construction completed (total)
Public
82,939 86,808
2008
I ll III IVP
18,283 22,158 22,317 24,047
5,279 6,568 6,503 8,383
12,142 14,367 14,712 14,288
21,048 25,995 17,061 38,217
7,398 6,056 4,691 13,175
13,077 19,171 10,795 22,252
2008
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12P
6,074 5,473 6,736 7,026 7,321 7,811 7,168 7,312 7,837 7,741 7,779 8,528
1,716 1,519 2,040 1,967 2,224 2,376 2,025 2,139 2,339 2,498 2,572 3,312
4,072 3,698 4,372 4,636 4,731 5,001 4,789 4,822 5,101 4,819 4,743 4,726
6,275 6,152 8,621 7,880 8,578 9,537 5,372 6,169 5,519 8,187 8,151 21,879
1,907 2,048 3,442 1,743 2,499 1,814 1,392 1,520 1,779 2,451 3,088 7,636
4,166 3,887 5,024 5,933 5,884 7,353 3,452 4,432 2,911 4,827 4,722 12,703
2009
1P
6,197
2,192
3,694
5,333
2,552
2,514
Y-o-Y change (%) 2007 2008P
6.6 4.7
8.4 6.5
4.6 1.7
23.6 -9.0
40.3 9.1
16.5 -15.8
2008
I ll III IVP
5.6 6.1 10.6 -2.2
6.8 3.5 6.6 8.7
3.0 4.6 10.5 -9.1
-3.7 -6.1 -22.7 -6.5
17.4 14.6 2.9 5.0
-14.1 -4.7 -32.3 -15.3
2008
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12P
10.5 3.1 3.6 4.2 7.5 6.6 8.7 8.3 14.8 5.1 -1.3 -8.6
16.5 -1.0 5.5 2.4 5.0 3.1 3.2 9.5 6.9 20.4 5.7 3.4
5.6 2.6 1.0 2.6 5.9 5.3 9.2 5.9 16.7 -3.3 -7.1 -16.2
-9.3 -7.0 3.6 -0.5 16.4 -23.0 -13.2 -8.1 -39.8 -23.7 -39.3 30.7
3.6 2.1 40.1 -5.6 50.7 2.0 -9.2 9.3 8.8 -25.8 -16.6 37.8
-15.0 -14.1 -13.4 3.4 16.0 -21.0 -8.4 -10.7 -59.6 -32.1 -46.7 23.4
2009
1P
2.0
27.7
-9.3
-15.0
33.8
-39.7
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
Economic Bulletin
57
8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI See graphs 13-1, 13-2 & 13-3
Period
Leading index (2005=100)
Y-o-Y change (%)
Coincident index (2005=100)
Cycle of coincident index (2005=100)
BSI (actual)
BSI (outlook)
2006 1
104.2
8.0
104.0
100.4
95.4
102.6
2
104.3
7.4
104.1
100.1
90.5
102.4
3
104.2
6.1
104.5
100.1
111.5
118.9
4
104.3
5.6
104.6
99.8
99.8
112.7
5
104.6
5.3
105.2
99.9
94.1
110.7
6
105.0
5.6
105.5
99.8
94.2
98.6
7
105.2
5.0
105.2
99.1
79.1
94.2
8
105.6
4.6
105.6
99.1
85.9
93.4 107.7
9
106.3
4.7
106.4
99.4
99.4
10
107.2
5.3
108.3
100.7
99.4
103.5
11
108.0
5.3
109.1
101.1
103.7
104.3
12
108.6
4.9
109.4
101.0
100.4
101.4
2007 1
109.1
4.7
109.4
100.6
85.6
96.5
2
109.9
5.4
109.8
100.6
87.5
93.4
3
110.3
5.9
110.2
100.5
109.4
112.3
4
111.0
6.4
110.7
100.5
105.8
107.7
5
111.3
6.4
111.2
100.6
104.1
110.9
6
112.4
7.0
112.1
100.9
100.2
105.6
7
113.2
7.6
113.0
101.4
95.8
99.3
8
114.1
8.0
113.7
101.6
94.4
102.5
9
114.7
7.9
113.8
101.2
101.5
111.8
10
115.6
7.8
114.4
101.3
108.3
116.3
11
116.4
7.8
115.0
101.5
106.0
112.4
12
116.8
7.6
116.0
101.9
98.9
103.4
2008 1
116.5
6.8
116.8
102.2
95.2
103.0
2
115.7
5.3
116.9
101.9
95.6
94.8
3
115.1
4.4
117.1
101.7
101.1
102.1
4
115.0
3.6
117.1
101.2
101.7
98.1
5
114.6
3.3
117.3
101.0
98.1
104.7
6
113.8
2.0
117.3
100.6
79.1
95.3
7
113.5
0.5
117.6
100.4
80.8
83.2
8
113.4
-0.5
117.7
100.1
83.1
80.8
9
112.7
-1.1
117.9
99.8
76.8
98.3
10
111.3
-2.5
117.6
99.2
64.6
84.9
11
110.4
-4.4
115.9
97.3
53.7
63.7
12P
110.5
-5.5
113.2
94.7
52.4
55.0
2009 1P
110.1
-5.5
110.8
92.3
58.1
52.0
2
-
-
-
-
62.4
66.0
3
-
-
-
-
-
76.1
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office & The Federation of Korean Industries
58
March 2009
9. Balance of payments (I) See graphs 5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 10-1 & 10-2 (million US$)
Current balance
Period
Goods trade balance
Exports
Imports
Services trade balance
Income trade balance
Current transfers
2007
5,876.0
28,168.0
371,489.0
356,845.8
-19,767.6
1,002.7
-3,527.1
2008P
-6,406.4
5,993.9
422,007.3
435,274.7
-16,733.6
5,106.5
-773.2
2007
2008P
2007
I
-1,013.3
5,721.8
84,703.5
82,261.7
-5,391.3
-618.1
-725.7
II
-1,303.6
5,811.9
92,984.5
87,961.9
-4,415.9
-1,662.4
-1,037.2
III
4,344.1
8,881.9
90,529.0
86,058.8
-5,256.6
1,759.9
-1,077.1
IV
3,848.8
7,752.4
103,272.0
100,563.3
-4,703.8
1,487.3
-687.1
I
-5,212.6
-1,219.8
99,444.6
106,052.9
-5,067.2
1,688.1
-613.7
II
-134.4
5,722.7
114,492.0
114,792.8
-4,272.7
-645.6
-938.8
III
-8,579.9
-3,475.5
115,000.1
122,901.0
-5,691.7
1,356.7
-769.4
IV
7,520.5
4,966.5
93,070.6
91,528.0
-1,702.0
2,707.3
1,548.7
1
439.4
1,505.6
28,092.6
27,560.1
-1,409.6
610.1
-266.7
2
430.4
2,140.0
26,225.1
25,406.2
-2,356.4
867.2
-220.4
3
-1,883.1
2,076.2
30,385.8
29,295.5
-1,625.3
-2,095.4
-238.6
4
-2,558.6
1,233.1
29,944.5
29,596.9
-1,371.3
-2,203.8
-216.6
5
193.8
1,476.9
31,039.9
29,856.9
-1,396.5
504.0
-390.6
6
1,061.2
3,101.9
32,000.1
28,508.1
-1,648.1
37.4
-430.0
7
1,773.7
3,250.9
30,207.4
29,223.2
-1,675.3
557.1
-359.0
8
589.1
2,386.2
30,998.1
29,642.1
-2,050.6
610.7
-357.2
9
1,981.3
3,244.8
29,323.5
27,193.6
-1,530.7
628.1
-360.9
10
3,010.5
4,361.0
34,433.8
32,741.2
-1,527.0
454.1
-277.6
11
1,674.4
2,723.8
35,807.9
33,926.1
-1,410.8
474.8
-113.4
12
-836.1
667.6
33,030.3
33,895.9
-1,766.0
588.4
-296.1
2008P 1
-2,751.3
-1,095.2
32,274.6
36,318.0
-2,138.1
768.0
-286.0
2
-2,350.7
-599.1
31,178.2
32,624.3
-2,249.6
700.7
-202.7
3
-110.6
474.5
35,991.8
37,110.6
-679.5
219.4
-125.0
4
-1,581.3
1,632.3
37,850.2
38,260.4
-979.0
-1,932.0
-302.6
5
-377.5
612.5
39,383.2
38,704.5
-1,167.4
459.2
-281.8
6
1,824.4
3,477.9
37,258.6
37,827.9
-2,126.3
827.2
-354.4
7
-2,534.0
217.6
40,961.2
42,952.5
-2,456.0
239.6
-535.2
8
-4,696.3
-2,803.4
36,610.6
40,420.4
-2,000.0
324.8
-217.7
9
-1,349.6
-889.7
37,428.3
39,528.1
-1,235.7
792.3
-16.5
10
4,753.0
2,625.7
37,111.1
36,098.8
-54.8
1,411.2
770.9
11
1,906.7
844.8
28,841.6
28,853.6
-130.1
720.2
471.8
12
860.8
1,496.0
27,117.9
26,575.6
-1,517.1
575.9
306.0
2009P 1
-1,361.5
-1,462.3
21,368.3
24,724.3
-708.5
563.5
245.8
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea & Korea Customs Service
Economic Bulletin
59
10. Balance of payments (II) See graph 10-3 (million US$) Capital & financial account
Period
2007 2008P 2007
I
Direct investment
Portfolio investment
Financial derivative
Capital transfers Other & acquisition of investment non-financial assets
Changes in reserve assets
Errors and omissions
7,128.3
-13,836.0
-26,057.8
5,444.8
43,964.8
-2,387.5
-15,128.4
2,124.1
-50,933.3
-10,594.8
-15,367.5
-14,332.7
-10,599.7
-38.6
56,446.0
893.7
6,364.1
-900.7
-12,227.6
1,300.5
19,005.7
-813.8
-3,998.3
-1,352.5
II
8,948.6
-2,847.3
-1,055.9
1,067.4
12,466.8
-682.4
-6,250.1
-1,394.9
III
-4,323.4
-2,606.0
-11,455.8
1,432.9
8,879.2
-573.7
-2,495.6
2,475.1
IV
-3,861.0
-7,482.0
-1,318.5
1,644.0
3,613.1
-317.6
-2,384.2
2,396.4
2008P I
395.9
-4,790.6
-9,992.8
-1,072.8
16,489.7
-237.6
3,850.0
966.7
ll
-4,673.7
-2,913.5
5,997.3
-805.9
-6,718.6
-233.0
5,717.7
-909.6
III
-4,850.5
-2,283.5
-12,393.1
-3,470.2
13,515.7
-219.4
12,883.1
547.3
IV
-41,805.0
-607.2
1,021.1
-8,983.8
-33,886.5
651.4
33,995.2
289.3
2007 1
2,179.9
-222.3
-1,915.9
292.8
4,381.7
-356.4
-2,350.7
-268.6
2
-527.7
-644.1
-2,366.7
368.2
2,318.3
-203.4
-1,134.7
1,232.0
3
4,711.9
-34.3
-7,945.0
639.5
12,305.7
-254.0
-512.9
-2,315.9
4
4,481.5
-402.2
3,601.6
197.7
1,325.2
-240.8
-1,878.4
-44.5
5
4,750.1
-282.9
-12.6
409.0
4,871.5
-234.9
-4,492.9
-451.0
6
-283.0
-2,162.2
-4,644.9
460.7
6,270.1
-206.7
121.2
-899.4
7
-552.8
-322.0
-7,912.0
705.2
7,203.9
-227.9
-2,421.6
1,200.7
8
137.3
-1,427.1
-6,531.8
440.1
7,864.1
-208.0
-937.6
211.2
9
-3,907.9
-856.9
2,988.0
287.6
-6,188.8
-137.8
863.4
1,063.2
10
-3,753.9
-4,514.5
-638.2
663.4
900.5
-165.1
-847.5
1,590.9
11
-373.5
-1,723.4
-2,473.5
627.2
3,269.4
-73.2
-493.8
-807.1
12
266.4
-1,244.1
1,793.2
353.4
-556.8
-79.3
-1,042.9
1,612.6
2008P 1
409.2
-2,488.7
-3,829.7
-181.4
7,013.3
-104.3
1,436.1
906.0
2
-401.3
303.5
-5,214.3
-212.1
4,819.9
-98.3
1,703.1
1,048.9
3
388.0
-2,605.4
-948.8
-679.3
4,656.5
-35.0
710.8
-988.2
4
-376.9
-1,911.9
4,069.9
-498.2
-1,948.9
-87.8
2,411.3
-453.1
5
-732.1
-262.6
7,623.0
-279.6
-7,758.2
-54.7
2,264.6
-1,155.0
6
-3,564.7
-739.0
-5,695.6
-28.1
2,988.5
-90.5
1,041.8
698.5
7
-5,774.6
-1,214.3
-8,855.9
-707.2
5,180.4
-177.6
9,171.4
-862.8
8
5,312.4
-742.7
-566.8
1.4
6,730.0
-109.5
-1,215.2
599.1
9
-4,388.3
-326.5
-2,970.4
-2,764.4
1,605.3
67.7
4,926.9
811.0
10
-24,834.8
-198.7
5,172.5
-3,912.1
-26,247.2
350.7
19,988.1
93.7
11
-12,140.9
-213.9
-3,139.6
-1,558.7
-7,439.3
210.6
10,904.2
-670.0
12
-4,829.3
-194.6
-1,011.8
-3,513.0
-200.0
90.1
3,102.9
865.6
2009P 1
4,859.1
-54.7
6,008.1
-248.5
-989.3
143.5
-4,488.60
991.0
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
60
March 2009
11. Prices See graphs 11-1, 11-2 & 11-3 (2005 = 100) Producer prices (2000=100)
Consumer prices
Export & import prices
Period All Items
Commodity
Service
Core
All items
Commodity
Export
Import
2007 2008
104.8 109.7
103.5 109.9
105.7 109.6
104.2 108.6
102.3 111.1
101.5 112.5
89.8 109.5
105.5 143.7
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
102.8 103.5 104.1 104.5 104.6 104.6 105.0 105.1 105.7 105.9 105.9 106.3
101.4 102.3 102.3 102.8 102.8 102.7 103.3 103.5 104.7 105.1 104.9 105.6
103.8 104.2 105.2 105.5 105.7 105.8 106.0 106.1 106.3 106.4 106.6 106.7
102.7 103.1 103.8 104.1 104.1 104.2 104.4 104.5 104.6 104.7 104.8 105.0
100.5 100.6 101.0 101.7 102.3 102.5 102.7 102.6 103.1 103.3 103.7 104.1
99.6 99.6 100.2 100.9 101.6 101.7 101.7 101.7 102.3 102.4 103.1 103.7
88.6 88.1 88.9 89.2 89.3 89.5 89.6 90.6 90.8 89.8 91.5 92.0
97.7 99.5 102.7 104.0 104.5 104.2 104.1 105.1 107.6 108.6 113.0 114.9
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2009 1 2
106.8 107.2 108.2 108.8 109.7 110.4 111.2 111.0 111.1 111.0 110.7 110.7 110.8 111.6
106.3 106.6 107.1 108.2 110.0 111.5 112.9 112.2 112.1 111.7 110.3 110.2 110.4 112.1
107.1 107.5 108.9 109.2 109.5 109.7 110.1 110.3 110.4 110.6 110.9 111.0 111.1 111.2
105.6 106.0 107.2 107.7 108.2 108.7 109.2 109.4 109.9 110.1 110.4 110.9 111.1 111.5
104.7 105.7 107.1 109.4 111.5 113.3 115.5 115.2 114.8 114.4 111.8 109.9 109.6 110.3
104.4 105.7 107.5 110.3 113.1 115.5 118.1 117.6 117.0 116.7 113.3 110.9 110.4 111.5
93.7 94.8 100.8 103.3 110.7 112.0 112.1 110.5 115.6 124.5 120.4 115.0 111.1 116.5
118.4 121.6 131.5 136.5 151.1 155.2 156.8 149.9 153.4 159.7 149.1 140.6 138.1 143.5
2007 2008
2.5 4.7
2.0 6.2
2.9 3.7
1.4 8.6
1.0 10.8
-2.1 21.8
4.5 36.2
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1.7 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.3 3.0 3.5 3.6
0.3 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.8 0.5 1.6 3.2 4.2 4.3
2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.0
2.1 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4
0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.6 0.9 1.0 2.2 3.1 3.6
-0.5 -0.6 0.2 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.4 1.8 3.3 4.0
-5.7 -4.2 -3.3 -1.8 -1.4 -2.8 -2.6 -3.4 -2.6 -2.5 1.8 3.4
-1.4 1.6 4.4 4.2 2.8 1.6 0.1 -0.7 5.2 7.5 13.7 15.6
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.9 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.9 5.5 5.9 5.6 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.1
4.8 4.2 4.7 5.3 7.0 8.6 9.3 8.4 7.1 6.3 5.1 4.4
3.2 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.0
2.8 2.8 3.3 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.6
4.2 5.1 6.1 7.6 9.0 10.5 12.5 12.3 11.3 10.7 7.8 5.6
4.8 6.1 7.3 9.3 11.3 13.6 16.1 15.6 14.4 14.0 9.9 6.9
5.8 7.6 13.4 15.7 24.0 25.2 25.1 21.9 27.4 38.6 31.5 25.0
21.2 22.2 28.0 31.3 44.6 49.0 50.6 42.6 42.6 47.1 32.0 22.4
2009 1 2
3.7 4.1
3.9 5.2
3.7 3.4
5.2 5.2
4.7 4.4
5.7 5.5
18.6 22.6
16.7 18.0
Y-o-Y change (%) 2.4 4.2
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
61
12. Employment See graphs 8-1, 8-2 & 8-3
Wage workers (thous.)
Economically active persons (thous.) Period
Employed persons (thous.)
Unemployment (%) Regular
Temporary
Daily
All industry Manufacturing S.O.C&service 2007 2008
24,216 24,347
23,433 23,577
4,014 3,963
17,679 17,906
3.2 3.2
15,970 16,206
8,620 9,007
5,172 5,079
2,178 2,121
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
23,580 23,536 23,960 24,337 24,537 24,593 24,545 24,214 24,341 24,482 24,471 23,993
22,729 22,674 23,121 23,520 23,758 23,816 23,750 23,458 23,622 23,750 23,739 23,257
4,046 4,030 4,016 4,024 4,018 4,039 4,022 3,945 3,990 4,036 3,983 4,021
17,335 17,229 17,479 17,677 17,779 17,822 17,850 17,635 17,754 17,800 17,969 17,822
3.6 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1
15,656 15,539 15,731 15,964 16,095 16,124 16,127 15,882 16,056 16,147 16,218 16,104
8,382 8,399 8,432 8,451 8,532 8,617 8,674 8,763 8,823 8,825 8,793 8,750
5,176 5,125 5,188 5,236 5,259 5,217 5,254 5,044 5,100 5,119 5,174 5,176
2,099 2,015 2,112 2,277 2,304 2,290 2,199 2,075 2,132 2,203 2,251 2,178
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
23,738 23,703 24,114 24,495 24,692 24,727 24,673 24,380 24,456 24,582 24,566 24,032
22,964 22,884 23,305 23,711 23,939 23,963 23,903 23,617 23,734 23,847 23,816 23,245
4,022 4,017 3,999 4,001 3,987 3,993 3,975 3,899 3,928 3,945 3,897 3,888
17,651 17,510 17,732 17,929 18,046 18,067 18,088 17,872 17,951 18,005 18,086 17,935
3.3 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.3
16,032 15,836 15,993 16,258 16,405 16,385 16,363 16,104 16,221 16,314 16,377 16,189
8,815 8,804 8,898 8,894 9,010 9,039 9,054 9,107 9,142 9,138 9,111 9,068
5,115 5,055 5,023 5,127 5,165 5,132 5,163 4,970 5,015 5,034 5,071 5,082
2,102 1,977 2,073 2,238 2,231 2,214 2,146 2,027 2,064 2,142 2,195 2,040
2009 1
23,709
22,861
3,895
17,663
3.6
16,053
9,102
4,982
1,969
Y-o-Y change (%) 2.2 -8.6 1.3 0.0
2.7 1.5
5.1 4.5
0.6 -1.8
-1.2 -2.6
2007 2008
1.0 0.5
1.2 0.6
-1.0 -1.3
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1.0 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.9
1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2
-1.1 -1.2 -1.4 -1.2 -1.1 -0.8 -1.1 -1.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 -0.4
1.9 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.0
-2.7 -9.8 -10.3 -2.9 0.0 -5.9 -5.9 -8.8 -6.2 -9.1 -6.2 -6.1
3.1 2.9 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.6 3.5 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4
4.4 4.6 4.1 3.6 4.3 6.0 6.7 6.3 5.7 5.2 5.1 4.9
3.0 2.8 1.7 1.4 1.3 -0.5 -1.2 0.5 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -1.1
-1.6 -3.3 -2.5 -0.9 -2.1 -2.1 -3.3 -0.7 -0.5 0.8 0.7 1.6
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2
1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 -0.1
-0.6 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1 -1.2 -1.2 -1.6 -2.3 -2.2 -3.3
1.8 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.6
-8.3 -5.4 -2.9 -5.9 -6.2 -3.1 -3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 6.5
2.4 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.5
5.2 4.8 5.5 5.2 5.6 4.9 4.4 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.6
-1.2 -1.4 -3.2 -2.1 -1.8 -1.6 -1.7 -1.5 -1.7 -1.7 -2.0 -1.8
0.2 -1.9 -1.8 -1.7 -3.2 -3.3 -2.4 -2.3 -3.2 -2.8 -2.5 -6.3
2009 1
-0.1
-0.4
-3.2
0.1
9.1
0.1
3.3
-2.6
-6.3
Source: Korea National Statistical Office
62
March 2009
13. Financial indicators See graphs 9-1 & 9-4 (period average) Yields (%)
Stock
Period Call rate (1 day)
CD (91 days)
Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)
Treasury bonds (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
KOSPI (end-period)
2005 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.7
3.5 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0
4.1 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.8 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.5
3.7 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.1
3.9 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.4 4.7 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.3
932.70 1,011.40 965.70 911.30 970.20 1,008.20 1,111.30 1,083.30 1,221.00 1,158.10 1,297.40 1,379.40
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.8
5.5 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.2
5.0 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.8
5.3 5.0 5.1 5.2 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.9
1,399.80 1,371.60 1,359.60 1,419.70 1,371.70 1,295.70 1,297.80 1,352.70 1,371.40 1,364.60 1,432.20 1,434.50
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.7
5.3 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.7
5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.9
5.0 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.9
1,360.20 1,417.30 1,452.60 1,542.24 1,700.91 1,743.60 1,933.27 1,873.24 1,946.48 2,064.95 1,906.00 1,897.10
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.2 4.9 4.0 3.3
5.8 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.8 5.8 6.0 5.6 4.7
6.6 6.3 6.1 5.9 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.5 8.0 8.6 8.4
5.4 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.1 5.0 4.0
5.5 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.2 5.2 4.3
1,624.68 1,711.62 1,703.99 1,825.47 1,852.02 1,674.92 1,594.67 1,474.24 1,448.06 1,113.06 1,076.07 1,124.47
2009 1 2
2.4 2.1
3.2 2.7
7.3 7.1
3.4 3.8
4.0 4.6
1,162.11 1,063.03
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
63
14. Monetary indicators See graph 9-5 (period average)
Period
(billion won)
Reserve money
M1
M2
Lf
2007 2008
48,543.7 52,272.8
312,832.3 307,273.6
1,197,094.8 1,367,713.4
1,603,516.0 1,794,841.2
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
47,851.4 49,493.5 48,936.8 47,485.3 48,092.5 47,914.3 47,500.5 47,823.9 48,870.6 49,370.6 48,831.0 50,353.8
353,494.2 350,734.7 335,446.8 305,602.5 301,184.5 302,511.7 302,375.6 298,066.1 299,048.0 297,999.3 299,714.7 307,809.3
1,143,814.9 1,154,108.8 1,162,429.3 1,165,291.0 1,171,148.4 1,190,080.2 1,200,892.7 1,208,052.8 1,219,265.1 1,229,742.1 1,250,790.1 1,269,522.5
1,536,010.8 1,547,512.8 1,557,701.9 1,564,339.3 1,575,635.4 1,596,407.1 1,606,424.5 1,618,788.3 1,631,969.6 1,649,987.5 1,668,328.3 1,686,063.4
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
50,260.5 52,563.7 49,571.5 50,683.6 50,502.5 51,274.4 50,600.6 51,981.0 53,303.9 52,976.5 54,254.5 59,300.7
305,868.0 304,580.7 299,792.8 298,474.4 304,239.8 305,514.3 306,584.4 304,538.7 307,067.8 310,565.5 316,330.9 323,725.9
1,286,407.8 1,309,161.7 1,324,032.7 1,339,434.9 1,356,612.9 1,369,728.1 1,378,914.3 1,386,101.1 1,395,719.2 1,403,984.2 1,426,165.1 1,436,298.3
1,711,196.8 1,726,407.2 1,743,481.7 1,762,945.3 1,782,721.1 1,798,774.9 1,801,540.6 1,810,535.1 1,831,313.4 1,845,717.7 1,859,348.8 1,863,865.0
2009 1
64,040.6
331,358.0
1,440,275.8
1,865,905
Y-o-Y change (%) 2007 2008
16.5 7.7
-5.2 -1.8
11.2 14.3
10.2 11.9
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
15.8 18.8 19.4 15.3 18.1 17.7 13.2 18.7 17.8 14.3 17.6 12.2
7.9 7.4 3.0 -5.7 -7.0 -7.5 -8.4 -8.6 -8.7 -10.7 -11.2 -12.5
11.3 11.5 11.5 11.1 10.9 10.9 10.9 11.4 11.0 10.8 11.3 11.5
9.8 9.9 10.2 10.1 10.1 10.4 10.0 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.6
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5.0 6.2 1.3 6.7 5.0 7.0 6.5 8.7 9.1 7.3 11.1 17.8
-13.5 -13.2 -10.6 -2.3 1.0 1.0 1.4 2.2 2.7 4.2 5.5 5.2
12.5 13.4 13.9 14.9 15.8 15.1 14.8 14.7 14.5 14.2 14.0 13.1
11.4 11.6 11.9 12.7 13.1 12.7 12.1 11.8 12.2 11.9 11.4 10.4
2009 1
27.4
8.3
12.0
9.2
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
64
March 2009
15. Exchange rates See graphs 9-2 & 9-3
₩ /US$
₩ /100￥
₩ /Euro
Period End-period
Average
End-period
Average
End-period
Average
938.2 1,257.5
929.2 1,102.6
833.3 1,393.9
789.8 1,076.6
1,381.3 1,776.2
1,272.7 1,606.8
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
940.9 938.3 940.3 929.4 929.9 926.8 923.2 939.9 920.7 907.4 929.6 938.2
936.4 937.0 943.3 931.5 927.9 928.3 918.9 933.8 932.4 915.9 917.0 930.2
773.1 793.9 797.0 778.3 764.8 752.4 774.6 809.9 796.7 791.1 846.5 833.3
777.9 776.8 804.8 783.7 768.5 757.1 755.6 799.8 810.6 790.7 826.2 828.4
1,220.1 1,241.9 1,253.9 1,266.9 1,249.0 1,246.0 1,266.9 1,282.3 1,302.9 1,309.9 1,371.8 1,381.3
1,217.0 1,225.1 1,249.4 1,257.7 1,254.1 1,244.9 1,260.0 1,272.4 1,291.2 1,303.3 1,345.6 1,355.2
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
943.9 937.3 991.7 999.7 1,031.4 1,043.4 1,008.5 1,081.8 1,187.7 1,291.4 1,482.7 1,257.5
942.4 944.7 979.9 986.7 1,036.7 1,029.3 1,019.1 1,041.5 1,130.4 1,326.9 1,390.1 1,373.8
889.1 889.7 1,000.2 961.8 977.0 981.8 932.9 987.9 1,144.2 1,306.0 1,553.8 1,393.9
872.9 880.6 972.3 962.4 994.2 963.0 954.2 953.0 1,060.6 1,327.1 1,435.1 1,503.3
1,402.3 1,423.5 1,565.0 1,556.2 1,599.6 1,647.1 1,571.0 1,590.3 1,707.2 1,664.4 1,912.6 1,776.2
1,386.2 1,395.4 1,519.5 1,555.1 1,614.6 1,601.7 1,606.4 1,561.6 1,627.6 1,765.3 1,768.9 1,846.1
2009 1 2
1,368.5 1,516.4
1,346.1 1,429.5
1,521.0 1,541.1
1,487.2 1,546.1
1,768.7 1,930.1
1,793.8 1,829.9
2007 2008
0.9 34.0
-2.8 18.7
6.6 67.3
-3.9 36.3
-13.0 28.6
6.1 26.2
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-3.1 -3.2 -3.7 -1.7 -1.9 -3.5 -3.1 -2.1 -2.6 -3.9 -0.0 0.9
-5.1 -3.4 -3.3 -2.4 -1.4 -2.8 -3.3 -2.8 -2.2 -4.0 -2.1 0.5
-6.3 -4.8 -4.2 -6.0 -9.2 -9.8 -6.7 -1.3 -0.7 -1.5 5.9 6.6
-8.9 -5.5 -3.2 -3.8 -8.8 -9.1 -8.0 -3.6 -0.5 -1.5 3.5 4.8
3.9 8.2 5.6 6.9 3.4 2.5 4.2 4.1 8.5 9.1 12.2 13.0
1.9 5.6 6.5 7.5 4.4 3.0 4.5 3.4 6.3 8.4 11.6 10.8
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0.3 -0.1 5.5 7.6 10.9 12.6 9.2 15.1 29.0 42.3 59.5 34.0
0.6 0.8 3.9 5.9 11.7 10.9 10.9 11.5 21.2 44.9 51.6 47.7
15.0 12.1 25.5 23.6 27.8 30.5 20.4 22.0 43.6 65.1 83.6 67.3
12.2 13.4 20.8 22.8 29.4 27.2 26.3 19.2 30.8 67.8 73.7 81.5
14.9 14.6 24.8 22.8 28.1 32.2 24.0 24.0 31.0 27.1 39.4 28.6
13.9 13.9 21.6 23.6 28.7 28.7 27.5 22.7 26.1 35.5 31.5 36.2
2009 1 2
45.0 61.8
42.8 51.3
71.1 73.2
70.4 75.6
26.1 35.6
29.4 31.1
2007 2008
Y-o-Y change (%)
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
65
Editor-in-Chief Park, Chul-Kyu (MOSF) Editorial Board Rim, Jin-Hong (MOSF) Kim, Dong-Yule (KDI) Lee, In-Sook (KDI) Coordinators Kim, Dae-Hyun (MOSF) Kang, Ji-Eun (KDI) Editors Lim, Keun-Hyuk (MOSF) Cho, Hyun-Joo (KDI)
Useful Internet Websites Economy-related Websites Recommended
Ministry of Strategy and Finance http://english.mosf.go.kr Ministry of Knowledge Economy http://www.mke.go.kr/language/eng Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr Fair Trade Commission http://www.ftc.go.kr/eng Ministry of Labor http://english.molab.go.kr/english The Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr Korea National Statistical Office http://www.nso.go.kr/eng2006