Vol. 31 | No. 7
Republic of Korea
Economic Bulletin The Green Book : Current Economic Trends Overview
3
1. Global economy
4
2. Private consumption
8
3. Facility investment
12
4. Construction investment
14
5. Exports and imports
16
6. Mining and manufacturing production
18
7. Service sector activity
20
8. Employment
22
9. Financial markets
24
9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4
Stock market Exchange rate Bond market Money supply & money market
10. Balance of payments
28
11. Prices and international commodity prices
30
11.1 Prices 11.2 International oil and commodity prices 12. Real estate market
34
12.1 Housing market 12.2 Land market 13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
38
Policy Issues Economic outlook and policy directions for the second half of 2009
40
Corporate investment stimulus package
42
Economic News Briefing
44
Statistical Appendices
49
The Green Book Current Economic Trends
Overview Although the indicators for the real economy such as production, consumption and investment are bouncing back amid stabilizing financial markets, the overall economy remains sluggish. In May, month-on-month mining and manufacturing production increased for the fifth straight month, registering a 1.6 percent increase, although on a year-on-year basis, the index contracted 9.0 percent. Service output shifted to a decrease of 1.2 percent month-onmonth from a 2.8 percent increase in the previous month, posting a year-on-year rise of 0.2 percent. Consumer goods sales in May rose 5.1 percent month-on-month, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.7 percent, thanks to a surge in automobile sales affected by tax break for new car purchase. Facilities investment, while recording a year-on-year dip of 13.1 percent, posted a month-onmonth growth in May for the first time since September 2008, registering a 16.7 percent increase, thanks to a surge in transportation equipment and machinery investments. On the other hand, construction completed fell 1.1 percent year-on-year, due to a plunge in the private sector. Exports in June slowed its year-on-year decline helped by an increase in vessel exports, from the preceding month’s 28.3 percent loss to 11.3 percent, expanding a trade surplus to US$7.44 billion. The total number of workers hired accelerated a year-on-year decrease in May from the previous month’s loss of 188,000 to 219,000, hit by weak domestic demand and falling exports. The unemployment rate landed at the same level as that of the previous month, registering 3.8 percent. Consumer prices, despite a rise in oil prices, decelerated a year-on-year increase in June, posting 2.0 percent inflation, affected by a price decline in agricultural, livestock and marine products, and due to a high base effect. Although the domestic financial market remained stable in June, external uncertainties existed over a possible recurrence of international financial market turmoil, along with risks from North Korea. To sum up, despite the domestic economy continuously improving since the beginning of this year, the private sector is not robust enough to power itself. The Korean economy was largely affected by temporary factors in May, with domestic as well as external uncertainties remaining high. For a sustainable economic turnaround, the Korean government will continue expansionary macroeconomic policies while carrying out its plans to create jobs and support the working class. On the other hand, causes for domestic uncertainties, the unstable real estate market for example, will be closely examined. Economic Bulletin
3
1. Global economy Indicators for the real economy in advanced countries, such as in the US and Japan, stayed on a downward trajectory, but the decline slowed. The OECD revised up its 2009 world economic outlook to a decline of 2.2 percent from a 2.7 percent contraction, whereas the World Bank cut its 2009 global growth forecast to negative 2.9 percent from negative 1.7 percent. Discussions on an exit strategy for the post-crisis era were made at the G8 Finance Ministers’ Meeting and EU summit.
US
The US economic growth in the first quarter of 2009 was revised up to negative 5.5 percent (annualized q-o-q) from negative 5.7 percent, as retail sales rose for the first time in three months, showing a moderating economic recession. The Federal Reserve, at the Federal Open Market Committee on June 24, commented that the US economic contraction had slowed down since April, but being held back by unemployment, a decrease in household assets, and credit crunch. GM’s bankruptcy filing, and the approval of Chrysler taken over by Fiat lifted uncertainties in the financial market over the US automakers’ insolvency. Non-farm payrolls declined by 345,000 in May, the slightest decline since September 2008, decelerating the worsening of job markets. Although the decline in home prices slowed, the delinguency rate for prime mortgages 60 or more days behind surged from 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008 to 2.9 percent in the first quarter of 2009, dampening expectations for a housing market rebound. The Federal Reserve announced its plan on June 24 to purchase a total of up to US$1.25 trillion of agency mortgage backed securities (MBS) and up to US$200 billion of agency debt by the end of 2009, and up to US$300 billion of long-term Treasury securities by the end of August. (Percentage change from previous period) 2008
2009
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Mar
Apr
May
1.1
0.9
2.8
-0.5
-6.3
-5.5
-
-
-
- Personal consumption expenditure
0.2
0.9
1.2
-3.8
-4.3
1.4
-
-
-
- Corporate fixed investment
1.6
2.4
2.5
-1.7
-21.7
-37.3
-
-
-
-20.8
-25.1
-13.3
-16.0
-22.8
-38.8
-
-
-
Real GDP
1
- Construction investment for housing Industrial production
-1.8
0.1
-1.2
-2.3
-3.4
-5.2
-1.8
-0.7
-1.1
Retail sales
-1.9
-0.4
0.5
-2.7
-8.2
0.8
-1.2
-0.2
0.5
-3,078
-338
-458
-624
-1,658
-2,074
-652
-504
-345
-37.4
-14.8
-9.6
-9.8
-15.0
-13.2
-5.4
2.7
-0.6
3.9
4.1
4.4
5.3
1.6
-0.1
-0.4
-0.7
-1.3
New non-farm payroll employment (q-o-q, thousand) New home sales Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) 1. Annualized rate (%)
4
July 2009
1-1
US GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate) Source: US Department of Commerce
1-2
US non-farm payroll employment (m-o-m change) Source: US Department of Labor
1-3
US federal funds rate and consumer prices Source: US Federal Reserve Board & Department of Labor
Economic Bulletin
5
China
China’s economy saw its exports decline at a faster rate, while indicators of production, consumption, and investment slightly improved. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) assessed that China’s economy bottomed out and showed positive changes due to macroeconomic stabilization polices. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008
2007 Annual Annual
2009
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Mar
Apr
May
Real GDP
13.0
9.0
10.6
10.1
9.0
6.8
6.1
-
-
-
Fixed asset investment (accumulated)
25.8
26.1
25.9
26.8
27.6
26.1
28.6
28.6
30.5
32.9
Retail sales
16.8
21.6
20.6
22.2
23.2
20.4
15.0
14.7
14.8
15.2
Industrial production
18.5
12.9
16.4
15.9
13.0
6.4
5.1
8.3
7.3
8.9
Exports
25.7
17.2
21.4
22.4
22.9
4.1
-19.7
-17.1
-22.6
-26.4
Consumer prices
4.8
5.9
8.0
7.8
5.3
2.5
-0.6
-1.2
-1.5
-1.4
Producer prices
3.1
6.9
6.9
8.4
9.7
2.5
-4.6
-6.0
-6.6
-7.2
1. The rate accumulated from January to February
Japan
Japan’s real GDP in the first quarter of 2009 was revised up to a quarter-on-quarter drop of 3.8 percent from a 4.0 percent decline, and in May industrial production recorded an increase for the third consecutive month. However, the country’s exports still remained weak. Japan’s Cabinet Office removed “The economy is getting worse rapidly” from its economic assessment, and changed its evaluation to “While the economy is in a difficult situation, some signs of improvement are observed.” 2007 Annual Annual
Real GDP Industrial and mining production
(Percentage change from previous period) 2009
2008 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Mar
Apr
May
2.3
-0.7
0.4
-0.6
-0.7
-3.6
-3.8
-
-
-
2.8
-3.3
-0.7
-0.8
-1.3
-12.0
-22.2
1.6
5.9
5.9
Retail sales (y-o-y, %)
-0.1
0.3
1.8
0.2
0.8
-1.5
-3.8
-3.8
-2.8
-2.8
Exports (y-o-y, %)
11.5
-3.4
6.0
1.8
3.2
-23.1
-46.9
-45.5
-39.1
-40.9
0.0
1.4
1.0
1.4
2.2
1.0
-0.1
-0.3
-0.1
-1.1
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %)
Eurozone
Eurozone’s retail sales increased compared with the previous quarter, and Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) landed at 44.4, the highest since September 2008. EU summit issued a statement that signs of economic recovery were observed, and it was time to prepare an exit strategy. (Percentage change from previous period) 2007
2008 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Mar
Apr
May
0.7
-0.3
-0.3
-1.8
-2.5
-
-
-
-1.8
1.0
-1.8
-2.9
-6.4
-7.6
-1.4
-1.9
-
-1.3
-0.3
-0.9
0.1
-0.8
-1.0
-0.1
0.2
-
8.6
3.7
8.0
7.3
-0.2
-6.7
-8.7
1.5
-1.3
-
2.1
3.3
3.3
3.6
3.8
2.3
1.0
0.6
0.6
0.0
Annual Annual Real GDP
2.7
0.8
Industrial production
3.5
Retail sales
0.9
Exports (y-o-y, %) Consumer prices (y-o-y, %)
6
July 2009
2009
1-4
China’s GDP and fixed asset investment Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
1-5
Japan’s GDP growth Source: Cabinet Office & Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan
1-6
Eurozone GDP growth and industrial production Source: Eurostat
Economic Bulletin
7
2. Private consumption Private consumption (preliminary GDP) in the first quarter of 2009 posted a quarter-onquarter increase of 0.4 percent, and a year-on-year decline of 4.4 percent (seasonally adjusted). (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007
Private consumption
2
(Seasonally adjusted)
3
20081
20091
Annual
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
5.1
5.4
4.7
0.9
4.0
2.3
1.4
-3.7
-4.4
-
0.9
0.4
-
1.1
-0.2
0.0
-4.6
0.4
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts 3. Percentage change from previous period
Consumer goods sales in May, thanks to strong automobile sales, increased 5.1 percent month-on-month, or rose 1.7 percent year-on-year, recording the first year-on-year increase since September 2008. On a year-on-year basis, durable goods sales soared 4.8 percent, showing the first increase in ten months, while semi-durable and non-durable goods sales rose 0.4 percent, respectively. On a month-on-month basis, durable goods sales surged 17.9 percent, leading an increase in consumer goods sales. Non-durable goods sales also rose 1.4 percent, whereas those of semi-durable goods fell 3.2 percent. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008
2009
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Mar
Apr1
May1
Consumer goods sales
1.0
4.4
2.9
1.4
-4.2
-4.9
-5.2
-3.9
1.7
(Seasonally adjusted)
-
1.1
-1.3
-0.1
-3.5
0.4
-1.8
0.6
5.1
- Durable goods
2
1.9
9.5
8.7
0.0
-9.9
-13.6
-15.1
-12.0
4.8
-2.0
9.6
7.1
-4.9
-19.5
-21.3
-22.4
-17.6
20.6
- Semi-durable goods4
-2.4
3.8
-2.1
0.6
-9.9
-0.9
-0.7
0.7
0.4
- Non-durable goods
0.7
1.9
0.3
1.2
-0.4
-1.4
-0.9
-1.0
0.4
3
路Automobiles 5
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period 3. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 4. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 5. Non-durable good: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobaccos, etc.
Sales at department stores rose for the third straight month, while those at specialized retailers shifted to an increase in ten months since September 2008. In contrast, sales at large discounters slightly declined. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008
- Department stores - Large discounters - Specialized retailers2
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Mar
Apr1
May1
0.5
4.3
3.7
0.2
-5.0
1.4
0.4
0.9
4.6
2.2
7.6
3.1
-0.2
-1.2
-5.0
-5.2
-4.2
-0.5
-1.7
2.0
0.7
-1.0
-8.1
-6.9
-7.2
-5.4
2.4
1. Preliminary 2. Specialized retailers are defined as stores carrying a few (1 to 3) specialized items.
8
July 2009
2009
2-1
Private consumption Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
2-2
Consumer goods sales Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
2-3
Consumer goods sales by type Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
9
Consumer goods sales in June are expected to continue its upward trend, given improving consumer sentiment and advance estimates. Domestic credit card spending increased 12.4 percent, posting double digit growth in eight months since November 2008. Sales at department stores increased 3.6 percent, posting an increase for the fourth consecutive month, whereas those at large discounters slightly dropped. In June, domestic sales of Korean cars soared affected by the tax benefit for new car purchase and individual consumption tax reduction on automobiles set to expire at the end of June, while gasoline sales rose for the second straight month. Value of credit card use (y-o-y, %) 3.9 (Jan 2009)
6.7 (Feb)
6.2 (Mar)
7.0 (Apr)
8.7 (May)
12.4 (Jun)
Department store sales (y-o-y, %) 10.4 (Jan 2009)
-0.3 (Feb)
4.5 (Mar)
2.8 (Apr)
5.4 (May)
3.6 (Jun)
Discount store sales (y-o-y, %) 16.8 (Jan 2009)
-20.3 (Feb)
-0.8 (Mar)
0.1 (Apr)
1.6 (May)
-1.4 (Jun)
Domestic sales of Korean automobiles (y-o-y, %) -24.1 (Jan 2009)
-4.7 (Feb)
-15.4 (Mar)
-14.9 (Apr)
15.3 (May)
46.0 (Jun)
Domestic sales of gasoline (y-o-y, %) 4.2 (Jan 2009)
3.9 (Feb)
3.6 (Mar)
-0.3 (Apr)
10.1 (May)
9.2 (Jun)
Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy The Credit Finance Association Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association Ministry of Strategy and Finance (for June data)
Stabilizing financial markets, improving consumer sentiment, and easing inflationary pressure are expected to contribute to the recovery of consumer spending, despite depressed job markets. Employment (y-o-y, thousand) -142 (Feb 2009)
-195 (Mar)
-188 (Apr)
-219 (May)
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) 3.7 (Jan 2009)
4.1 (Feb)
3.9 (Mar)
3.6 (Apr)
2.7 (May)
2.0 (Jun)
The won/dollar exchange rate (monthly average) 1,429 (Feb 2009)
1,462 (Mar)
1,342 (Apr)
1,259 (May)
1,261 (Jun)
1,322 (Apr)
1,401 (May)
1,395 (Jun)
KOSPI (monthly average) 1,140 (Feb 2009)
1,140 (Mar)
Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) 81 (Dec 2008)
10
July 2009
84 (Jan 2009)
85 (Feb)
84 (Mar)
98 (Apr)
105 (May)
106 (Jun)
2-4
Department store and discount store sales (current value) Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy (monthly retail sales)
2-5
Domestic automobile sales Source: Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association (monthly automobile industry trend)
2-6
Consumer sentiment index Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
11
3. Facility investment Facility investment (preliminary GDP) in the first quarter of 2009 posted a year-on-year loss of 23.5 percent and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 11.2 percent (seasonally adjusted). (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007 Annual
20081
Q3
Q4
Annual
9.3
4.0
8.0
-2.0
-
-3.0
3.8
-
- Machinery
9.2
2.5
8.5
-2.7
- Transportation equipment
9.6
10.1
5.8
0.4
Facility investment
2
(Seasonally adjusted)3
Q1
20091
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
1.5
1.1
4.3
-14.0
-23.5
-0.4
0.4
0.2
-14.2
-11.2
-1.2
-0.1
6.5
-15.3
-24.0
12.2
5.1
-3.6
-9.9
-21.8
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts 3. Percentage change from previous period
Facility investment in May rose 16.7 percent month-on-month, while cutting a year-on-year loss at 13.1 percent, an improvement from the previous month’s 25.6 percent decline, thanks to increased investment in transportation and semiconductor equipment. Facility investment in June is likely to slow its fall as both machinery orders and facility investment adjustment pressure eased their declines. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007
Facility investment (estimated) (Seasonally adjusted)2 - Machinery - Transportation equipment Domestic machinery orders
2008
20091
Annual
Annual
Q4
Q1
Feb
Mar
Apr1
May1
9.2
-3.2
-16.2
-23.0
-19.5
-23.3
-25.6
-13.1
-
-
-13.5
-11.7
-0.7
-1.1
-2.4
16.7
8.3
-4.0
-17.2
-27.6
-26.2
-27.6
-29.4
-18.7
13.2
0.6
-11.3
2.8
17.8
1.1
-4.4
15.9
21.1
-5.5
-39.5
-36.0
-28.8
-30.2
-25.8
-16.1
- Public
-11.2
4.9
-3.5
150.5
661.2
16.7
-2.5
8.7
- Private
24.2
-6.2
-43.9
-43.1
-44.6
-32.5
-26.6
-16.9
21.1
6.4
-11.5
-27.9
-15.1
-33.3
-32.5
-28.0
1.7
-2.2
-15.6
-18.9
-13.1
-13.5
-11.0
-10.9
Machinery imports Facility investment adjustment pressure3
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period 3. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p)
Both the Bank of Korea’s BSI for facility investment projections and results in the manufacturing sector increased month-on-month for two months in a row.
2009
Business survey indices (base=100) Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Manufacturing facility investment results
85
89
91
93
-
Manufacturing facility investment projections
81
85
89
91
94
Source: The Bank of Korea
12
July 2009
3-1
Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
3-2
Machinery orders and estimated facility investment (3-month average) Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
3-3
Machinery imports Source: Korea International Trade Association (KITA)
Economic Bulletin
13
4. Construction investment Construction investment (preliminary GDP) in the first quarter of 2009 rose 1.6 percent year-on-year, or 5.2 percent quarter-on-quarter. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007
Construction investment (Seasonally adjusted)
2
- Civil engineering works
20091
Annual
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
1.4
-0.2
0.4
-2.1
-1.9
-0.3
0.2
-5.6
1.6
-
-0.4
2.9
-
-2.5
-0.3
0.1
-3.0
5.2
-0.0
-0.4
0.7
-4.3
-1.2
-0.1
-0.1
-14.3
-11.1
3.8
0.2
-0.1
1.3
-3.2
-0.7
0.7
5.7
24.9
3
- Building construction
20081
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts 3. Percentage change from previous period
In May, construction completed (current value) fell 1.1 percent year-on-year despite a healthy increase in civil engineering works, due to disappointing results in the private sector. Construction completed in the public sector soared 17.2 percent, while that in the private sector fell 10.3 percent. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007
2008
20091
Annual
Annual
Q3
Q4
Q1
Feb
Mar
Apr1
May1
Construction completed
6.6
4.7
10.6
-2.2
4.5
12.0
3.0
6.0
-1.1
- Building construction
6.2
1.7
9.0
-10.6
-6.0
-0.3
-4.5
-4.4
-7.7
- Civil engineering works
6.9
10.6
14.3
13.6
24.8
36.1
17.3
27.1
11.4
1. Preliminary
Construction investment in June is expected to slow its increase compared with May despite improved sentiment, as the private investment continued to be low and public investment rose at a slower rate. Civil engineering orders rose 26.0 percent, while building construction orders fell 38.0 percent. Business survey index for construction (base=100) 48.9 (Jan 2009)
50 (Feb)
72.3 (Mar)
80 (Apr)
86.6 (May)
Source: The Construction and Economy Research Institute of Korea
(Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007
2008
20091
Annual
Annual
Q3
Q4
Q1
Feb
Mar
Apr1
May1
Construction orders
23.6
-9.0
-22.7
-6.5
-16.5
-20.7
-14.7
-8.0
-18.5
- Public
40.3
9.1
2.9
5.0
22.0
31.6
9.7
221.8
71.9
- Private
16.5
-15.8
-32.3
15.3
-38.4
-46.5
-31.1
-78.8
-56.3
Building permit area
13.3
-20.1
-13.5
-41.9
-31.6
-34.8
-10.8
-49.0
-
1. Preliminary
14
July 2009
4-1
Construction investment Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
4-2
Construction completed and housing construction Source: Korea National Statistical Office (construction completed) Kookmin Bank (housing construction)
4-3
Leading indicators of construction investment Source: Korea National Statistical Office (construction orders) Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (building construction permit area)
Economic Bulletin
15
5. Exports and imports Exports in June fell 11.3 percent year-on-year to US$33.05 billion. Average daily exports in working-day-adjusted terms (+1.5 days) fell 17.0 percent year-onyear, landing at US$1.41 billion. The Ministry of Knowledge Economy estimated that by products between June 1 and 20, vessels (up 66.7%) and liquid crystal devices (up 31.0%) are among major export increases, while semiconductors (down 22.9%) and automobiles (down 37.9%) are among those falling. By regional category, according to the estimation by the Ministry of Knowledge Economy for the same period, exports to the Middle East (up 47.8%) and Africa (up 38.3%) increased, while exports to China (down 15.5%), the US (down 13.9%), Japan (down 28.6%), and the EU (down 5.8%) fell. (US$ billion) 2008
Exports (y-o-y, %)
2009
Annual
Jun
Jan-Jun
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jan-Jun
422.01
37.26
176.68
21.14
25.41
28.07
30.42
28.15
33.05
166.33
13.6
16.4
21.3
-34.5
-18.5
-22.0
-19.6
-28.5
-11.3
-22.3
1.53
1.69
1.59
0.98
1.15
1.17
1.27
1.28
1.41
1.21
435.27
37.83
220.85
24.85
22.53
23.78
24.63
23.08
25.61
144.51
(y-o-y, %)
22.0
32.7
29.7
-31.5
-31.0
-35.9
-35.6
-40.4
-32.3
-34.6
Average daily imports
1.58
1.72
1.61
1.16
1.02
0.99
1.03
1.05
1.09
1.05
-13.27
-0.57
-6.91
-3.72
2.87
4.23
5.75
5.06
7.44
21.64
Average daily exports Imports
Trade balance
Imports in June fell 32.3 percent year-on-year to US$25.61 billion. In working-day-adjusted terms, year-on-year average daily imports fell 36.6 percent, landing at US$1.09 billion. Imports of raw materials, capital goods, and consumer goods all declined, but at a slower pace compared with the previous month. Raw materials (y-o-y, %) -35.0 (Feb 2009)
-40.1 (Mar)
-41.2 (Apr)
-48.6 (May)
-44.2 (Jun 1-20)
-26.8 (Apr)
-24.7 (May)
-22.7 (Jun 1-20)
-30.7 (Apr)
-29.6 (May)
-5.5 (Jun 1-20)
Capital goods (y-o-y, %) -23.0 (Feb 2009)
-30.3 (Mar)
Consumer goods (y-o-y, %) -27.9 (Feb 2009)
-27.1 (Mar)
Exports increased greatly, contributing to a record trade surplus of US$7.44 billion in June.
16
July 2009
5-1
Exports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-2
Imports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-3
Trade balance Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
Economic Bulletin
17
6. Mining and manufacturing production In May, production in mining and manufacturing fell at a faster pace year-on-year from the previous month’s 8.2 percent decline to 9 percent. On a month-on-month basis however, the production rose 1.6 percent, posting an increase for five straight months. By business category, audio visual communications equipment (up 9.0%), semiconductors and parts (up 7.0%), and automobiles (up 4.1%) contributed to a month-on-month increase in output. Shipments decreased at a faster pace year-on-year, falling 8.7 percent compared with an 8.1 percent drop a month earlier. However, the level of inventory slid faster from the previous month’s 9.8 percent decline to 13.4 percent year-on-year. By business category, automobiles (down 19.0%), machinery (down 23.6%) and primary metals (down 16.8%) contributed to a year-on-year decrease in shipments. The inventory decrease was mainly due to drops in semiconductors and parts (down 39.1%), automobiles (down 23.7%), and machinery (down 17.2%). Judging from the flow of the shipment/inventory cycle and falling ratio of inventory to shipment, inventory adjustment continued gradually moving toward a recovery phase. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007 Annual Production (q-o-q, m-o-m)
Mining and manufacturing activity2
2008 Annual
2009
Q3
Q4
Q1
Mar
Apr1
May1
-
-
-1.9
-11.9
-2.7
4.9
2.5
1.6
(y-o-y)
6.9
3.0
5.6
-11.3
-15.5
-10.5
-8.2
-9.0
- Manufacturing
7.1
3.0
5.6
-12.1
-16.4
-11.1
-8.9
-9.5
·Heavy chemical industry
8.3
4.1
6.8
-12.8
-17.0
-11.5
-8.9
-9.1
·Light industry
2.0
-2.2
0.0
-8.8
-13.5
-9.6
-9.0
-11.6
Shipment
7.2
2.4
5.3
-10.1
-14.7
-11.1
-8.1
-8.7
- Domestic demand
5.1
-0.7
1.7
-11.0
-16.3
-12.9
-9.6
-9.7
10.3
7.1
10.3
-8.8
-12.4
-8.3
-5.8
-7.4
- Exports Inventory
3
Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) activity Production capacity
5.6
7.3
17.3
7.3
-5.8
-5.8
-9.8
-13.4
80.1
77.2
78.3
69.3
65.8
69.2
71.6
73.0
5.4
5.2
5.3
3.5
2.5
2.4
2.1
1.4
1. Preliminary 2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry 3. End-period
Mining and manufacturing production is likely to continuously increase in June due to relatively fast recovery in exports and an inventory adjustment made so far. Exports increase (%) -34.5 (Jan 2009)
18
July 2009
-18.5 (Feb)
-22.1 (Mar)
-19.7 (Apr)
-28.5 (May)
-11.3 (Jun)
6-1
Industrial production Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
6-2
Average manufacturing operation ratio Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
6-3
Inventory Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
19
7. Service sector activity Service activity in May declined 1.2 percent from the previous month, but increased 0.2 percent from a year earlier. By business category, healthcare & social welfare services (up 8.2%) and financial & insurance services (up 7.8%) stayed on an upward track. Meanwhile, transportation services (down 8.7%) and wholesale & retail sales (down 3.7%) remained sluggish. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) Weight
2008
2007 Annual Annual
2009
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Mar
Apr1
May1
Service activity index
100
6.8
3.4
6.7
4.8
3.2
-0.4
-0.4
-0.7
1.8
0.2
- Wholesale & retail
22.0
5.8
1.4
4.0
3.1
3.6
-4.6
-4.0
-5.2
-4.1
-3.7
- Transportation services
9.0
6.6
4.3
8.1
8.2
4.3
-3.2
-10.8
-10.7
-11.2
-8.7
- Hotels & restaurants
7.8
2.2
0.7
3.6
0.6
1.7
-3.0
-2.4
-2.6
0.2
-1.7
- Information & communication services
8.4
3.8
3.5
6.0
5.5
3.4
-0.2
-1.9
-1.2
0.1
0.3
15.3
17.1
9.7
16.1
9.8
9.6
4.5
6.6
6.9
12.7
7.8
- Real estate & renting
6.3
3.1
-2.1
5.7
2.7
-8.4
-7.5
-3.1
-7.7
-2.3
-1.6
- Professional, scientific & technical services
4.8
5.4
2.0
4.2
1.5
1.8
0.9
-1.9
-2.0
1.4
-0.3
- Financial & insurance services
- Business services
2.9
9.0
4.6
8.0
7.7
3.2
0.1
-4.8
-6.2
-7.7
-7.4
10.8
2.2
1.8
3.4
1.9
-0.5
2.3
3.7
6.7
13.2
4.7
- Healthcare & social welfare services
6.0
9.4
6.3
6.1
6.8
6.1
6.5
8.6
9.7
8.2
8.2
- Entertainment, cultural & sports services
2.9
6.3
2.2
2.5
0.4
1.7
4.3
1.5
-0.2
2.6
0.7
- Membership organizations
3.8
0.1
0.1
1.9
1.0
-1.4
-1.0
-3.4
-2.9
-6.2
-7.4
- Sewerage & waste management
0.4
4.9
5.8
8.9
6.9
3.9
4.0
0.5
5.4
3.6
3.1
- Educational services
1. Preliminary
Service activity in June is expected to continue the gradual recovery as healthcare & social welfare services remain robust while wholesale & retail sales and transportation services, hard hit by the global downturn, are steadily improving. Wholesale & retail sales (y-o-y, %) -1.1 (Jan 2009)
-4.1 (Feb)
-5.2 (Mar)
-4.1 (Apr)
-3.7 (May)
Transportation services (y-o-y, %) -10.3 (Jan 2009)
20
July 2009
-11.4 (Feb)
-10.7 (Mar)
-11.2 (Apr)
-8.7 (May)
l es
l&
tate
ncia
& re
ranc
e se
ns
bus iness f ines acil s su ity m ppo ana rt se gem rvic ent es & Edu cati ona l se rvic es Hea l t h serv care ices & s ocia l we lfar e Ente serv rtainm ices ent , cu ltur al & spo Me rts othe mbersh r pe ip o rson rgan al s izati ervi ons Sew ces , re pair reco erage, & very was & re te m med ana iatio gem n ac ent, tivit mate ies rials
es
atio
rvic
unic
s
omm
rant
tail
insu
&c
stau
tion
& re
ion
& re
ntin g Prof e s tech sion nica al, s l se cien rvic tifi c& es Bus
Rea
Fina
ale
rtat
rma
els
Info
Hot
spo
oles
Tran
Wh
ex
7-3
l ind
7-2
Tota
7-1 Service industry
Source: Korea National Statistical Office (service industry activity trend)
Wholesale and retail sales
Source: Korea National Statistical Office (service industry activity trend)
May 2009 service industry by business
Source: Korea National Statistical Office (service industry activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
21
8. Employment The number of workers on payroll in May decreased by 219,000 year-on-year affected by sluggish domestic demand and falling exports, as the labor market remained weak. Employment in the manufacturing sector stayed on a downward track declining by 140,000, mainly due to contracted production and inventory adjustment. Hiring in the construction sector continued to fall with a 125,000 decrease as increased orders of civil engineering works in the public sector were offset by weak construction in the private sector. Employment in the service sector improved modestly with an increase of 95,000 on the back of the government’s policy measure to create jobs. (Change from same period in previous year, thousand) 2008
2009
Annual
May
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Mar
Apr
May
Employment growth
145
181
209
173
141
54
-146
-195
-188
-219
- Manufacturing
-52
-32
-18
-34
-52
-103
-163
-186
-155
-140
- Construction
-37
-40
-22
-46
-40
-41
-43
-71
-128
-125
- Services
263
306
307
300
262
187
47
39
95
95
- Agriculture, forestry and fishery
-37
-60
-63
-54
-38
8
14
22
0.0
-49
By status of workers, non-wage workers including self-employed workers plunged by 298,000 from a year earlier. Meanwhile, wage workers rose by 79,000 led by an increase of 306,000 in regular workers although the number of temporary or daily workers shrank significantly by 227,000. (Change from same period in previous year, thousand) 2008
2009
Annual
May
Q1
Q2
Q3
Employment growth
145
181
209
173
141
- Wage workers
236
310
312
289
208
Q1
Mar
Apr
May
54
-146
-195
-188
-219
137
73
83
95
79
Q4
386
478
435
448
347
316
318
276
333
306
-150
-167
-123
-159
-140
-179
-244
-194
-238
-227
- Non-wage workers
-92
-129
-102
-115
-66
-83
-220
-277
-282
-298
·Self-employed workers
-79
-57
-79
-67
-76
-95
-197
-222
-269
-301
·Regular workers ·Temporary or daily workers
The employment rate stood at 59.3 percent, down 1.2 percentage points compared to the same month of the previous year. The unemployment rate rose 0.8 percentage points yearon-year to 3.8 percent, while that of youths aged 15 to 29 was up 0.5 percentage points from a year earlier to 8.0 percent. (Change from same period in previous year, thousand) 2008
Unemployment rate (%) Employment rate (%)
22
July 2009
2009
Annual
May
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Mar
Apr
May
3.2
3.0
3.4
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.8
4.0
3.8
3.8
59.5
60.5
58.5
60.3
59.9
59.4
57.4
57.9
58.8
59.3
8-1
Number of employed and employment growth Source: Korea National Statistical Office (employment trend)
8-2
Share of employed by industry Source: Korea National Statistical Office (employment trend)
8-3
Unemployment rate and number of unemployed Source: Korea National Statistical Office (employment trend)
Economic Bulletin
23
9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market The Korean stock market in June went down as the global stock market underwent a period of adjustment on concerns over delayed economic recovery. The continuing geopolitical risks and the MSCI’s decision to maintain the MSCI Korea index in Emerging Markets also dragged down the stock market prices. The decline, however, was limited as international organizations including the World Bank have posted positive predictions on the Korean economy, and the Korean government announced that it will maintain its expansionary economic policy. Foreign investors maintained their net-buying position in the Korean stock market since March, with the amount of net-buying posting 2.5 trillion won in June. Net buying of Korean shares by foreign investors in the KOSPI market (trillion won) 0.7 (Mar 2009)
4.1 (Apr)
4.1 (May)
2.5 (Jun) (End-period, point, trillion won)
KOSPI
Stock price index
KOSDAQ
2008
Jun 2009
Change
1,124.4
1,390.1
576.9 5.1
Market capitalization Average daily trade value
2008
Jun 2009
Change1
265.7 (+23.6%)
332.0
485.1
153.2 (+46.1%)
730.5
153.6 (+26.6%)
46.1
74.1
28.0 (+60.7%)
5.3
0.2 (+3.9%)
1.2
2.1
0.9 (+75.0%)
1
1. Change from the end of previous year
9.2 Exchange rate The won/dollar exchange rate in June fluctuated within the range of 1,230 to 1,290 won boosted by surpluses in the current and trade accounts and continued net buying of Korean shares by foreign investors. The exchange rate was up 19 won from the end of the previous month to wrap up the month at 1,274 won, after posting a monthly low of 1,233.2 won on June 3 and the highest 1,290.8 won on June 23. Current account balance (US$ billion) 3.56 (Feb 2009)
6.65 (Mar)
4.25 (Apr)
3.63 (May)
Trade account balance (US$ billion) 2.87 (Feb 2009)
4.23 (Mar)
5.75 (Apr)
5.06 (May)
The won/yen exchange rate edged up to close the month at 1,329.6 won amid the won’s depreciation. (End-period) 2006
2007
2008
Dec
Dec
Dec
May
2009 Jun
Change1
Won/Dollar
929.8
936.1
1,259.5
1,255.0
1,273.9
-1.1
Won/100Yen
783.4
828.6
1,396.8
1,300.1
1,329.6
5.1
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.
24
July 2009
9-1
Stock prices
9-2
Foreign exchange rate (month-end)
9-3
Recent foreign exchange rate
Economic Bulletin
25
9.3 Bond market Treasury bond yields rose in June fueled by higher US Treasury bond yields, the persisting geopolitical risks as well as the Korean government’s upwardly revised growth forecast for this year from negative 2.0 percent to negative 1.5 percent. The increase, however, was restricted as demand for bonds increased after a short-term jump of the yields at the end of June. (End-period)
Call rate (1 day)
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Apr
May
Jun
Change1
3.76
4.60
5.02
3.02
1.85
1.96
1.96
-106
CD (91 days)
4.09
4.86
5.82
3.93
2.41
2.41
2.41
-152
Treasury bonds (3 yrs)
5.08
4.92
5.74
3.41
3.59
3.83
4.16
75
Corporate bonds (3 yrs)
5.52
5.29
6.77
7.72
5.29
4.98
5.39
-233
Treasury bonds (5 yrs)
5.36
5.00
5.78
3.77
4.17
4.67
4.64
87
1. Basis point changes in June 2009 from end December 2008
9.4 Money supply & money market The M2 (monthly average) in April expanded 10.6 percent from a year earlier. Despite a considerable current account surplus, the M2 growth continued to slow down with a decelerated increase in household and corporate loans. (Percentage change from same period in previous year, average) 2006
2007
Annual
Annual
2008 Annual
2009 Apr
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Apr1
M12
9.1
8.1
4.1
2.1
9.0
11.1
15.2
17.8
390.4
M2
8.3
11.2
14.3
14.9
12.0
11.4
11.1
10.6
1,482.0
Lf3
7.9
10.2
11.9
12.7
9.2
8.8
8.4
Mid 74
1,889.14
1. Balance at end April 2009, trillion won 2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3) 4. Preliminary
In May, bank deposits soared while asset management companies (AMC) deposits turned to a decrease. Bank deposits expanded considerably due to deferred corporate settlements with the end of May falling into holidays, as well as a surge in net issuances of CDs and bank bonds amid a perception that bond yields have reached the lowest. Although more money continued to flow into bond funds, AMC deposits reversed course to a decrease weighed down by lower yields on money market funds (MMFs) and money outflow from equity funds. (Monthly change, end-period, trillion won) 2007
2008
Annual
May
Annual
Bank deposits
51.0
6.9
AMC deposits
61.8
7.6
1. Balance at end May 2009, trillion won
26
July 2009
2009 May
Mar
Apr
May
May1
95.5
9.3
-5.1
6.4
11.3
934.1
63.0
14.7
-3.0
2.2
-2.2
385.6
9-4
Interest rates Source: The Bank of Korea
9-5
Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea
9-6
Share of deposits by financial sector (M3 as of year-end) Source: The Bank of Korea * Retail finance: Mutual savings banks & National Credit Union Federation of Korea, Others: Investment banks, post office savings, etc.
Economic Bulletin
27
10. Balance of payments The current account surplus in May narrowed month-on-month to record US$3.63 billion as the service account deficit expanded and the current transfer account turned to post a deficit. The goods account maintained a huge surplus of US$5.02 billion. The service account deficit expanded to US$1.47 billion as deficits in the travel and other service accounts expanded while the transportation account surplus decreased. The income account recorded a US$360 million surplus due to seasonal factors such as decreased overseas dividend payments by Korean companies. The current transfer account turned to a negative territory for the first time in 8 months since September 2008 posting a deficit of US$280 million as the overseas remittance account deficit expanded. (US$ billion) 2008
2009
Annual
Q1
Q2
May
Q3
Q4
Q1
Apr
May
Jan-May
Current account
-6.41
-5.21
-0.13
-7.17
-8.58
7.52
8.58
4.25
3.63
16.46
- Goods balance
5.99
-1.22
5.72
1.03
-3.48
4.97
8.35
6.13
5.02
19.50
- Service balance
-16.73
-5.07
-4.27
-7.21
-5.69
-1.70
-1.89
-1.11
-1.47
-4.46
- Income balance
5.11
1.69
-0.65
0.22
1.36
2.71
0.83
-0.86
0.36
0.34
- Current transfers
-0.77
-0.61
-0.94
-1.20
-0.77
1.55
1.28
0.08
-0.28
1.08
The capital and financial account in May posted an expanded net inflow of US$6.72 billion. Capital & financial account balance (US$ billion) -4.83 (Dec 2008)
4.86 (Jan 2009)
-3.32 (Feb)
-2.71 (Mar)
2.54 (Apr)
6.72 (May)
The direct investment account shifted to a net outflow of US$260 million from the previous month’s net inflow of US$80 million as foreign direct investment (FDI) into Korea narrowed while overseas direct investment by locals expanded. The portfolio investment account narrowed the net inflow to record US$4.27 billion from the previous month’s US$7.13 billion as local residents’ overseas portfolio investment shifted to a net outflow. The financial derivatives account rebounded to register a net inflow of US$1.34 billion from the previous month’s net outflow of US$680 million as revenue generated in derivative transactions increased thanks to the won’s appreciation. The other investment account turned to record a net inflow of US$1.27 billion from the previous month’s net outflow of US$4.53 billion, as overseas borrowings by domestic financial institutions have increased. The current account is likely to record a surplus of around US$4.5 billion in June as the trade balance posted a surplus of US$7.44 billion.
28
July 2009
10-1 Current account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-2 Travel balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-3 Capital & financial account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
Economic Bulletin
29
11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices Consumer prices rose by 2.0 percent year-on-year in June, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month’s 2.7 percent, slowing growth for four consecutive months. The overall price index was down 0.1 percent month-on-month as agricultural, livestock and fishery products showed sharp price declines although the price for oil products rose. Prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products went down 4.8 percent month-on-month, as inflationary factors from the supply-side during the March-April period such as spring droughts, the won’s depreciation and decreases in cultivated land have disappeared. As international oil prices went up significantly, prices of oil products rose 3.5 percent monthon-month although prices of other industrial products were stable. Prices of agricultural, livestock & fishery products in June 2009 (m-o-m, %) Potato (-43.9), Chinese cabbage (-40.8), radish (-10.7), Korean melon (-29.1), tomato (-27.5), mackerel (-26.5), onion (-20.9)
Prices of oil products in June 2009 (m-o-m, %) Gasoline (4.5), diesel (5.4), kerosene (4.3), LPG for automobiles (-5.8), LPG for kitchen use (-3.5)
Public utility charges have increased 0.2 percent compared to the previous month as Seoul and Incheon local governments decided to increase the basic flat rate of taxi fares. Other public utility charges, however, remained as they were. Personal service charges continued to stabilize with a 0.1 percent increase month-on-month amid a sluggish economy although expenses for eating-out and education costs increased.
Consumer price inflation in major sectors Total
Agricultural, livestock & fishery products
Industrial products
Oil products
Housing rents
Public utility
Personal services
-0.1
-4.8
1.0
3.5
0.0
0.2
0.1
Contribution (%p)
-0.09
-0.42
0.30
0.19
0.00
0.03
0.03
Year-on-Year (%)
2.0
6.6
0.3
-20.6
1.4
1.7
2.6
Contribution (%p)
1.99
0.53
0.11
-1.48
0.13
0.28
0.90
Month-on-Month (%)
Core consumer prices, which exclude the prices of oil and agricultural products, rose by 3.5 percent year-on-year. Consumer prices for basic necessities, a barometer of perceived consumer prices, were up 0.5 percent compared to the same month of the previous year.
Consumer price inflation 2008
2009
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Month-on-Month (%)
0.6
0.7
-0.2
0.1
-0.1
-0.3
0.0
0.1
0.7
0.7
0.3
0.0
-0.1
Year-on-Year (%)
5.5
5.9
5.6
5.1
4.8
4.5
4.1
3.7
4.1
3.9
3.6
2.7
2.0
Core consumer prices (y-o-y)
4.3
4.6
4.7
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.6
5.2
5.2
4.5
4.2
3.9
3.5
(m-o-m)
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.1
Consumer prices for basic necessities (y-o-y)
7.0
7.1
6.6
5.5
4.8
4.0
3.0
2.8
3.3
3.1
3.0
1.8
0.5
30
July 2009
11-1 Prices Source: Korea National Statistical Office (consumer prices, core inflation) & The Bank of Korea (producer prices)
11-2 Consumer price inflation Source: Korea National Statistical Office (consumer price trend)
11-3 Contribution to consumer price inflation Source: Korea National Statistical Office (consumer price trend)
Economic Bulletin
31
11.2. International oil and commodity prices International oil prices in June rose with prospects for an economic recovery followed by improved economic data and stock market rallies. The oil prices were also pushed up by increased strategic oil stockpile in China and the US, and an inflow of investment fund into the commodity markets due to the weak dollar. After mid-June, as some economic data such as the US consumer confidence index showed somewhat sluggish movement, the upward trend in international oil prices was alleviated. (US$/barrel, period average) 2006
2007
Annual
Annual
Annual
2008 Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
2009 Apr
May
Jun
Dubai crude
61.6
68.4
94.3
40.5
44.1
43.1
45.6
50.0
57.9
69.4
Brent crude
65.1
72.8
97.5
40.4
43.6
43.2
46.5
50.4
57.5
68.6
WTI crude
66.0
72.3
99.9
41.6
41.8
39.2
48.0
49.8
59.1
69.7
Record high oil prices (spot prices, US$/barrel) Dubai crude: 141 (Jul 4, 2008), Brent crude: 145 (Jul 3), WTI crude: 146 (Jul 14)
Domestic prices of oil products increased in line with higher prices of international oil and oil products. (Won/liter, period average) 2006
2007
Annual
Annual
Annual
2008 Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
2009 Apr
May
Jun
Gasoline prices
1,492
1,526
1,692
1,329
1,352
1,486
1,530
1,551
1,543
1,607
Diesel prices
1,228
1,273
1,614
1,303
1,305
1,322
1,304
1,330
1,320
1,389
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
International prices of major non-ferrous metals went up month-on-month in June due to the prospect of an economic recovery and the weak dollar. Prices of grain, however, declined due to good weather conditions. In general, prices of non-ferrous metals including bronze and nickel have been on an upward trend due to reduced inventory, prospects for an economic recovery and increased strategic stockpile in China. Prices of grain including corn and wheat moved downward with favorable weather conditions. Prices of soybean, however, rose as droughts in Argentina caused lower soybean yields. Prices of non-ferrous metals and grain in June 2009 (m-o-m, %) Corn (-1.3), wheat (-1.0), soybean (5.4), bronze (9.8), nickel (18.3), aluminum (7.2), zinc (5.2), lead (16.8), tin (9.7)
Reuters index*
(Period average)
2006
2007
2008
Annual
Annual
Annual
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2,019
2,400
2,536
1,767
1,890
1,893
1,870
1,942
2,099
2,117
* A weighted average index of 17 major commodities
32
July 2009
2009
11-4 International oil prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
11-5 International oil prices (Dubai crude) and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation & Korea Customs Service
11-6 International commodity prices Source: Bloomberg (CRB) & The Bank of Korea (Reuters index) * CRB demonstrates futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry.
Economic Bulletin
33
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market Affected by expectations over an economic recovery and development projects in some areas, nationwide apartment sales prices in June were up 0.2 percent, extending the upward trend for three consecutive months. Apartment prices in Seoul climbed 0.5 percent monthon-month affected by the good news on development projects such as the reviving reconstruction market with eased regulations in the Gangnam area and the announcement of Renaissance project in the north-east side of the Gangbuk area.
Nationwide apartment sales prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2006
2007
2008
Annual
Annual
Annual
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jun 11
Jun 81
Jun 151
Jun 221
Nationwide
13.8
2.1
2.3
-0.7
-0.3
-0.2
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.06
Seoul
24.1
3.6
3.2
-0.9
-0.2
-0.3
0.4
0.2
0.5
0.10
0.08
0.21
0.18
27.6
0.5
-1.9
-1.1
0.2
-0.1
0.7
0.3
0.7
0.13
0.11
0.26
0.21
19.0
8.3
9.4
-0.7
-0.6
-0.4
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.06
0.04
0.15
0.14
Gangnam
2
Gangbuk3 1. Weekly trends
2009
2. Upscale area of southern Seoul
3. Northern Seoul
Source: Kookmin Bank
Although it is typically low season for leasing, the average rental prices in June, led by Seoul, continued its upward trend and expanded the growth rate due to the imbalance in supply and demand. The Gangnam area, in particular, extended the upward trend to post an increase of 1.0 percent, a sharp acceleration from the previous month’s 0.5 percent, as supply of newly built apartments was exhausted and demand for rental apartments in the prestigious school districts increased. Rental prices (m-o-m, %) Nationwide: 0.3 (May 2009)
0.4 (Jun); Seoul: 0.4 (May 2009)
0.7 (Jun)
Nationwide apartment rental prices
Nationwide Seoul Gangnam
2
Gangbuk3 1. Weekly trends
(Percentage change from previous period)
2006
2007
2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Annual
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jun 11
Jun 81
Jun 151
Jun 221
7.6
1.9
0.8
-1.2
-0.3
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.06
0.07
0.10
0.11
11.5
2.2
-1.8
-1.7
0.2
0.7
0.6
0.4
0.7
0.13
0.15
0.19
0.18
11.3
0.5
-3.6
-1.8
0.7
1.0
0.9
0.5
1.0
0.16
0.18
0.26
0.22
11.8
4.6
0.5
-1.5
-0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.5
0.09
0.11
0.10
0.13
2. Upscale area of southern Seoul
3. Northern Seoul
Source: Kookmin Bank
Apartment sales transactions in May inched down to 72,000 from the previous month’s 76,000 while apartment sales transaction in the Seoul metropolitan area increased slightly. Apartment sales transactions (cases) Gangnam-gu, Seocho-gu and Songpa-gu: 2,890 (May 2009) Mapo-gu: 225 (May 2009)
2,263 (Jun);
354 (Jun); Yeongdengpo-gu: 255 (May 2009)
413 (Jun)
Apartment sales transactions 2006
(Monthly average, thousand)
2007
2008
Annual Annual Annual Jan
2009
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Nationwide
94
84
74
80
88
82
84
61
54
57
49
60
79
76
72
Seoul
16
8
8
8
11
11
9
5
3
5
4
6
8
9
10
Source: Korea Land Corporation
34
July 2009
12-1 Real estate prices Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
12-2 Weekly apartment sales prices and monthly transaction volume Source: Kookmin Bank (weekly APT price trend) & Korea Land Corporation (monthly land trade trend)
12-3 Apartment prices by region Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
Economic Bulletin
35
12.2 Land market Nationwide land prices in May slightly increased by 0.11 percent, continuing the upward trend from the previous month. Land prices in Incheon significantly expanded the growth while the Seoul metropolitan area remained flat and the Gyeonggi province showed a modest increase. Land prices in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area rebounded to the upward trend with the exception of Busan (down 0.1%), Gwangju (down 0.01%), and Daejeon (down 0.01%).
Land prices by region
(Percentage change from previous period) 2007
2008
2009
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Apr
May
Nationwide
3.88
0.96
0.79
0.91
1.15
-0.31
1.23
1.46
1.18
-4.08
-1.20
0.06
0.11
Seoul
5.88
1.38
1.07
1.40
1.90
-1.00
1.83
2.17
1.59
-6.34
-1.38
0.20
0.20
Gyeonggi
4.22
1.07
0.89
1.05
1.14
-0.26
1.28
1.57
1.28
-4.28
-1.62
0.03
0.13
Incheon
4.86
1.24
1.28
1.12
1.13
1.37
1.36
1.67
2.01
-3.57
-1.39
0.13
0.15
Source: Korea Land Corporation
Nationwide land transactions in May decreased by 15,000 land lots or 7.2 percent month-onmonth to 192,000 land lots, recording a year-on-year decrease of 56,000 land lots or 22.5 percent. Land transactions decreased in all areas excluding Daegu and Jeju on the basis of land lots.
Land sales transactions
(Monthly average, land lot, thousand)
2007
2008
Annual Annual Nationwide
2009
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
208
208
216
237
248
245
173
149
162
134
164
207
207
192
Seoul
33
26
24
32
36
34
20
14
13
13
15
20
24
22
Gyeonggi
49
45
44
50
58
57
37
28
31
26
34
41
48
45
Incheon
13
13
11
16
16
18
11
8
8
7
7
9
10
9
Busan
10
10
10
9
13
11
8
8
9
8
7
11
11
9
Source: Korea Land Corporation
36
July 2009
12-4 Land and consumer prices since 1970s Source: Korea Land Corporation (land prices) & Korea National Statistical Office (consumer prices)
12-5 Land prices by region Source: Korea Land Corporation (land price trend)
12-6 Land trade volume Source: Korea Land Corporation (land trade trend)
Economic Bulletin
37
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators The cyclical indicator of coincident composite index, a barometer of the current economic conditions, rose 0.3 points in May from the previous month, staying on an upward track for the third consecutive month. Two components of the index including the value of construction completed and the volume of imports decreased. In the mean time, the other six components, such as the mining and manufacturing production index, and the manufacturing operation ratio index were up. Components of the cyclical indicator of coincident composite index in May 2009 (m-o-m) Number of non-farm payroll employment (0.0%), mining & manufacturing production index (3.0%), manufacturing operation ratio index (2.9%), value of construction completed (-2.4%), service activity index (0.2%), wholesale & retail sales index (0.6%), domestic shipment index (2.1%), volume of imports (-2.4%)
The year-on-year leading composite index, which foresees the future economic conditions, rose 2.5 percentage points month-on-month in May, running on an upward track for five consecutive months. All components of the index including the indicator of inventory cycle, the consumer expectations index, the composite stock price index, and the volume of capital goods imports increased. Components of the leading composite index in May 2009 (m-o-m) Ratio of job openings to job seekers (1.9%p), indicator of inventory cycle (4.9%p), consumer expectations index (9.1%), value of machinery orders received (2.3%), volume of capital goods imports (4.1%), value of received construction orders (4.0%), composite stock price index (7.8%), liquidity in the financial institutions (0.7%), spreads between long & short term interest rate (0.1%), net terms of trade index (1.6%)
2008
2009
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar1
Apr1
May1
Coincident composite index (m-o-m, %)
-2.5
-1.9
0.0
0.9
1.5
0.7
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index
94.6
92.4
92.0
92.5
93.5
93.8
(m-o-m, p)
-2.7
-2.2
-0.4
0.5
1.0
0.3
Leading composite index (m-o-m, %)
-0.8
0.2
1.1
1.0
1.9
2.1
12 month smoothed change in leading composite index (%)
-4.2
-4.1
-3.0
-2.0
0.1
2.6
(m-o-m, %p)
-1.0
0.1
1.1
1.0
2.1
2.5
1. Preliminary
38
July 2009
13-1 Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index Source: Korea National Statistical Office
13-2 Leading composite index Source: Korea National Statistical Office
13-3 Coincident and leading composite indices Source: Korea National Statistical Office
Economic Bulletin
39
Policy Issues Economic Outlook and Policy Directions for the Second Half of 2009
Current economic situation The Korean government revised the 2009 economic growth outlook upward to negative 1.5 percent from April’s negative 2.0 percent, as economic indicators for the real economy showed signs of recovery. The government also predicted that the number of newly employed persons would slow the pace of decline, and a current account surplus would expand from US$16 billion to US$25 billion. The key economic forecasts are as follows:
2009
Economic growth Changes in the number of employed Current account surplus Consumer price
April outlook
Revised outlook
Outlook for 2010
Around -2.0%
Around -1.5%
Around 4.0
-200,000
-150,000 ~ -100,000
Around 150,000
Around US$16 billon
Around US$25 billion
Around US$8 billion
Upper half of 2.0%
Upper half of 2.0%
Upper half of 2.0%
The revision was made on the basis of Korea’s improving composite leading indicator which posted an increase for four consecutive months, along with growing industrial production, and strengthening consumer and business sentiments. However, there are still uncertainties surrounding the Korean economy: Demand and investment have not picked up yet, and the
40
July 2009
level of fiscal expenditure is expected to fall in the second half due to fiscal frontloading in the first half. Furthermore, a possible rise in oil prices and delayed global economic recovery are expected to affect Korea’s purchasing power and exports, respectively. Against this backdrop, the Korean government set up economic directions for the second half of 2009.
Key directions Current expansionary policies will continue until clear signs of economic turnaround are apparent. However, temporary measures will be reviewed in terms of their impact on the economy, and subject to be withdrawn when they expire. Real estate markets will be under close scrutiny, and any signs that can cause instability in the market are sure to be responded to in advance with appropriate measures. Current policies concerning job creation and public welfare will continue to be pursued in the second half, but their impact and effectiveness will be examined. In this respect, measures to promote service sector development and those to support business startups, and training programs to nurture Korea’s human resources will be put under evaluation. On-going corporate reform efforts will definitely be made: Creditor-led corporate restructuring at all times, early removal of bad loans in the financial sector, and more flexible job markets with improved labor-management relations. Relaxed lending conditions and expanded credit limits will be removed when the financial market stabilizes. State-owned agencies are obliged to make on-going efforts to raise their management efficiency, and those subject to privatization to be prepared for it. The government will boost its efforts to enhance nation’s growth potential for the post crisis period. This will include measures to promote investment in R&D and green growth related industries, create a more business-friendly environment, offer deregulation on high value added service industries, help conclude FTAs with resources rich countries, and prepare for future risks regarding aging population, climate change, and high oil prices.
Conclusion The Korean economy shows signs of faster recovery than other economies, with some economic indicators improving, financial markets stabilizing, and real GDP growth entering an upward trajectory in the second quarter of 2009. However, there are still obstacles: Facility investments are still weak, corporations are suffering from low profitability and high debt, worries are growing over economic bipolarization with this crisis mostly affecting the socially vulnerable, a potential increase in oil prices and the North Korea’s nuclear ambition
Economic Bulletin
41
are adding uncertainties to the current economic conditions, and social conflicts may depress consumer sentiment. These are the reasons behind the expansionary fiscal spending the government decided to take in the second half of 2009.
Corporate Investment Stimulus Package
Background To promote investment which will lead to further employment, early economic turnaround and technological progress, the Korean government put together a stimulus package to include tax benefits, financial support and deregulation. President Lee Myung-bak, representatives of SMEs and large corporations, and government officials participated in a discussion to encourage corporate investment.
Stimulus package 1: Tax benefit Tax deduction will be granted to promote R&D investment in core technologies and in the 17 areas of new national growth engines: up to 25 percent tax deduction given to large corporations and 35 percent to SMEs in the case of R&D investment in core technologies, and as for R&D investment in the 17 areas of new growth engines, up to 20 percent and 30 percent deduction offered to large corporations and SMEs, respectively.
Current tax deduction rate Large corporations
3-6% of total quarterly investment or 40% of quarterly investment increase
SMEs
25% of total quarterly investment or 50% of quarterly investment increase
New tax deduction package R&D investment
R&D investment in new growth engines
R&D investment in core technologies
Large corporations
Current rate
20% of total quarterly investment
25% of total quarterly investment
SMEs
Current rate
30% of total quarterly investment
35% of total quarterly investment
42
July 2009
Stimulus package 2: Expanded financing To finance facility investment, a total of 10 trillion won will be made available in 2009: a five trillion won fund collected from the government, state-owned banks of the Industrial Bank of Korea and Korea Development Bank, and institutional investors such as National Pension Fund, and loans of five trillion won from the state-owned banks. Financing for facility investment is planned to be expanded to 20 trillion won in line with fiscal expansion, increased funding from more institutional investors, and reinvestment of funds repaid. The government also plans to increase support for R&D investment by 10.5 percent annually between 2009 and 2013, introduce science and technology awards granted to R&D projects when the projects are completed, and offer pay-support to SMEs when they hire researchers retired from manufacturing companies.
Stimulus package 3: Business friendly regulation To provide more business friendly environment financially, intellectual property rights, receivables, and other personal properties will be transferred to as collateral with the introduction of new collateral law. Furthermore, money newly invested in corporations will be prioritized to be repaid first if the corporations are under restructuring, when the revised bankruptcy law is in effect. The process of staring a new business will be streamlined from current ten stages to six stages along with other deregulations.
Stimulus package 4: SMEs and labor intensive industries To encourage R&D investment by SMEs, municipal governments and public institutions will be obliged to purchase SMEs’ products up to 10 percent of their total purchase value, a two fold increase from five percent. In addition, the government will provide support to help commercialize newly developed technologies, which includes government assistance with cost incurred by quality inspection and product certification. Labor intensive areas such as SMEs, and the service and agricultural industries will benefit from government measures to attract more investment in such areas: SMEs will be given extended tax deduction for their R&D investments, and institutional investors investing in venture funds will be faced with less tight regulations. Investment in tourism is expected to be encouraged by adopting less restrictive regulations concerning the protection of nature: Permits for building resorts and facilities for tourist convenience will be easier to be obtained. In the agricultural industry, incentives will be given for developing core farming technologies. Also, non-farming investors will be allowed to establish agricultural companies without equity holding limits.
Economic Bulletin
43
Economic News Briefing
Korea revises its economic outlook upward amid growing optimism As the Korean economy is showing clear signs of recovery, the Korean government revised its economic growth forecast upward for this year from the initial estimate of around negative 2 percent to around negative 1.5 percent. Also, the Korean economy is expected to grow about 4 percent next year on the back of the global economic recovery and revitalized domestic demand, said the government on June 25. Despite the expected economic improvements, the government added that it will maintain its expansionary economic policy, as there are still some uncertain variables, such as rising oil prices. The upward revision by the government came as international organizations including the World Bank (WB) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have recently posted positive projections that Korea will come out of the global economic downturn before any other countries. The OECD said the Korean economy will grow 3.5 percent next year, making the fastest rebound among its 30 member countries, after contracting 2.2 percent this year. World Bank Senior Vice President Justin Lin, visiting Korea to participate in the 20th Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics (ABCDE) held on June 22 to 24, said the Korean economy will begin rebounding from the second half of the
44
July 2009
year, carefully suggesting that the country’s GDP will expand by 2 percent in 2010 and by 4 to 5 percent in 2011 after shrinking by 3 to 3.5 percent this year. In addition, the IMF upgraded its growth forecast for Korea by one percentage point, stating that the economy will contract 3 percent compared with its previous projection of a 4 percent contraction, before growing 2.5 percent next year, according to its statement unveiled on July 7 after its two-week annual meeting with Seoul policymakers to access Korea’s economic conditions. Meanwhile, the government’s effort to maintain and create jobs amid an economic slump has gained international recognition. Juan Somavia, a Director-General of International Labor Organization (ILO), introduced Korea’s various employment policies including employment support for SMEs, job training and internship program for the vulnerable and unemployment benefits for job-seekers as a successful case of overcoming economic crisis, in his report released before the opening of the 98th annual ILO general assembly held on June 12.
Korea becomes world’s 11th largest exporting country Korea became the world’s 11th largest exporting country in the first quarter of this year, moving up a notch from 12th of last year. Data released by the Ministry of Knowledge Economy shows that Korean exports amounted to US$74.7 billion during the first three months of this year, surpassing those of Russia, whose rank dropped to 13th from 9th of last year. Officials predict that Korean exports could advance further, entering the top ten exporting countries by the end of the year, because Korea’s rate of decline in export volume is lower than those of other countries. Meanwhile, in a report released on June 19 by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Korea’s exports in the information and communication technology (ICT) sector ranked highest of all the 30 OECD member nations, reaffirming Korea’s prowess in the high-tech industry. According to the report, Korea’s trade surplus in the ICT sector recorded about US$43.3 billion in 2007.
Korea, EU FTA talks On July 13, Korea and the European Union (EU) declared the final compromise package on the free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations. The announcement was made by Korean President Lee Myung-bak and Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt during their summit
Economic Bulletin
45
in Stockholm. Currently, Sweden holds a presidency of the EU. The leaders stressed that the agreement would bring important benefits to the economies of both sides, creating new opportunities for exports and growth at a time of economic contraction, and that the FTA would send a strong signal against protectionism globally.
New 50,000 won note begins circulation The Bank of Korea issued a new 50,000 won note on June 23, marking the first new issuance of paper currency in 36 years since 1973. While the 10,000 won note had been the highestdenominated bill, the need for a higher note had long been discussed as prices and the gross national income jumped 12-fold and 150-fold, respectively, since 1973. The Bank of Korea hoped that the introduction of 50,000 won note would boost private spending since it may encourage consumers to make bigger purchases in cash. The central bank also expected the new note to lower the demand for, and costs of, issuing and storing 100,000-won bankers’ checks.
The master plan for the “Four Major Rivers Revitalization Project” finalized On June 8, 2009, the Korean government announced the final blueprint for the “Four Major Rivers Revitalization Project,” Korea’s largest-ever hydro-engineering project aimed at resolving water supply issues and providing new bases for green industry and tourism. The project consists of five core challenges: securing abundant water resources against water scarcity; implementing comprehensive flood control measures; improving water quality and restoring the ecosystem; creating multipurpose spaces for local residents; and contributing to regional development centered on rivers. According to the final plan, restoration of the four major rivers such as dredging sediments and building reservoirs will be finished by 2011 while projects for the branch streams as well as building dams and agricultural reservoirs will be completed by 2012. A total of 16.9 trillion won will be spent for the project. The government expects that the project will provide Korea an opportunity to position itself as a powerhouse in water resources while contributing to overcoming the economic downturn by creating new jobs and revitalizing local economies.
46
July 2009
Korea and the US adopted a new alliance vision On June 16, 2009, President Lee Myung-bak of South Korea met with US President Barack Obama at the White House for a summit to discuss the Korea-US alliance, North Korea and economic cooperation as well as global issues. Following the summit, the two leaders adopted a joint statement titled “The Joint Vision for the Alliance of the Republic of Korea and the United States of America.” Under the joint statement, President Obama reaffirmed the US commitment to the defense of Korea by pledging to provide Korea extended deterrence. The leaders announced that both countries will work together to achieve the complete and verifiable elimination of North Korea’s nuclear weapons and all its related programs, while also paying attention to human rights issues in North Korea. In addition, both sides recognized the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement (FTA) could further strengthen the bilateral economic relations. At the Asia-Pacific level, they pledged to work jointly with regional institutions and partners to foster prosperity, keep the peace, and improve the lives of the people in the region. They also agreed to work closely on key global challenges such as terrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, climate change, and epidemic disease.
Korea and Japan to enhance the “future-oriented and mature partnership” Korean President Lee Myung-bak visited Japan on June 28, 2009, and exchanged views with Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso on issues of interest and concern for the two sides, such as the issues of North Korea, the two nations’ bilateral economic cooperation, and cooperation on the international stage at the summit meeting. On the North Korean issues, the leaders of Korea and Japan confirmed that nuclear and missile development by North Korea constitutes a grave threat to the security of the Northeast Asian region and cannot in any way be condoned, and agreed that all members of the United Nations should firmly implement UN Security Council Resolution 1874. In addition, the leaders decided to enhance their cooperation in the fields of environment, space and nuclear power. They agreed that both governments would make efforts so that the bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) could move forward in a direction, which benefits both sides.
Economic Bulletin
47
Statistical Appendices Tables & Figures 1. National accounts 2. Production, shipment and inventory 3. Production capacity and operation ratio 4. Consumer goods sales index 5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment, and estimated facility investment index 7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received 8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI 9. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates
Economic Bulletin
49
1. National accounts (year-on-year change, %, chained 2005 year prices) Real GDP Period
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008P
Gross fixed capital formation
Final consumption expenditure
Agri., fores. & fisheries
Manufacturing
7.2 2.8 4.6 4.0 5.2 5.1 2.2
-2.2 -5.4 9.1 1.3 1.5 4.0 5.5
8.7 5.4 10.0 6.2 8.1 7.2 3.1
8.1 0.5 1.0 4.6 5.1 5.1 1.6
Construction
Facilities
7.1 4.4 2.1 1.9 3.4 4.2 -1.7
6.2 8.5 1.3 -0.4 0.5 1.4 -2.1
7.3 -1.5 3.8 5.3 8.2 9.3 -2.0
2002
I II III IV
6.6 7.0 6.8 8.1
2.3 -2.4 -1.1 -5.5
5.1 7.2 9.3 13.1
10.3 9.1 7.7 5.7
7.5 7.9 3.2 9.6
11.4 7.2 -1.5 9.4
2.6 7.7 9.8 9.1
2003
I II III IV
3.5 1.8 2.0 3.9
0.7 -1.6 -9.6 -8.0
5.4 3.1 4.3 8.5
2.0 0.3 0.0 -0.4
5.1 4.7 2.8 5.0
8.2 8.4 8.3 9.0
2.9 -0.7 -5.8 -2.2
2004
I II III IV
5.2 5.9 4.8 2.7
8.2 7.6 8.3 11.6
10.9 12.9 10.4 6.2
-0.1 1.3 1.0 1.8
2.3 4.9 3.1 -1.4
5.3 4.2 1.2 -3.5
-0.6 6.4 7.7 1.8
2005
I II III IV
2.7 3.4 4.5 5.1
0.4 4.8 3.8 -3.1
4.8 3.9 6.7 9.3
2.7 4.7 5.9 4.9
-0.3 1.8 1.5 3.9
-3.1 0.9 -0.3 0.3
3.4 2.8 4.1 10.8
2006
I II III IV
6.1 5.1 5.0 4.6
3.9 -0.3 -1.4 4.2
9.4 9.1 8.7 5.4
5.8 4.9 4.6 5.1
3.8 0.1 4.0 5.7
1.9 -4.2 -0.5 5.1
7.2 8.0 12.0 5.7
2007
I II III IV
4.5 5.3 4.9 5.7
1.6 7.0 8.2 -0.7
4.5 7.2 6.3 10.2
5.1 5.4 5.3 4.7
7.3 5.7 1.5 3.1
4.4 2.0 -0.2 0.4
12.6 13.0 4.0 8.0
2008P
I II III IV
5.5 4.3 3.1 -3.4
7.4 4.4 4.2 6.4
9.1 8.4 5.6 -9.1
3.9 2.6 2.0 -1.9
-0.5 0.6 1.8 -7.3
-1.9 -0.3 0.2 -5.6
1.5 1.1 4.3 -14.0
2009P
I
-4.2
1.5
-13.6
-2.0
-8.1
1.6
-23.5
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
50
July 2009
Growth rate by economic activity
Growth rate by expenditure on GDP
Economic Bulletin
51
2. Production, shipment and inventory See graphs 6-1, 6-3, 7-1, 7-2 & 7-3 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Production index
Period
2007 2008
Y-o-Y change (%)
Shipment index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Inventory index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Service production index
Y-o-Y change (%)
115.9 119.4
6.9 3.0
115.3 118.1
7.2 2.4
117.2 125.7
5.6 7.3
112.2 116.1
6.8 3.5
2007
I II III IV
109.6 114.9 112.9 126.2
4.1 6.3 6.1 10.9
109.6 115.2 111.9 124.7
5.2 7.1 5.6 10.5
114.0 114.5 112.7 117.2
5.0 4.1 2.9 5.6
106.7 111.2 112.6 118.1
5.5 6.5 7.4 7.4
2008
I II III IV
121.6 125.1 119.2 111.9
10.9 8.9 5.6 -11.3
119.6 122.8 117.8 112.1
9.1 6.6 5.3 -10.1
123.7 133.1 132.2 125.7
8.5 16.2 17.3 7.3
113.8 116.5 116.2 117.6
6.7 4.8 3.2 -0.4
2009
I
102.7
-15.5
101.9
-14.8
116.7
-5.7
113.2
-0.5
2007
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
112.8 100.2 115.7 113.8 115.8 115.1 113.4 113.7 111.6 128.6 127.6 122.5
8.7 -0.2 3.5 6.4 5.8 6.7 13.6 9.0 -3.0 16.1 7.7 9.4
110.3 101.7 116.8 114.6 116.0 114.9 112.6 112.5 110.6 126.3 126.1 121.6
8.3 2.0 5.1 7.5 6.6 6.9 14.3 7.3 -3.5 15.6 7.8 8.6
118.6 115.6 114.0 111.8 114.2 114.5 115.6 115.6 112.7 115.0 114.9 117.2
10.8 8.4 5.0 4.0 3.7 4.1 2.8 5.5 2.9 4.9 4.3 5.6
105.9 102.8 111.4 109.4 112.1 112.1 112.1 112.9 112.8 115.3 115.6 123.4
4.3 6.7 5.5 5.4 6.2 8.1 10.0 7.9 4.5 9.3 6.7 6.2
2008
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
126.0 110.9 127.8 126.1 126.1 123.1 123.1 115.8 118.6 126.2 110.0 99.6
11.7 10.7 10.5 10.8 8.9 7.0 8.6 1.8 6.3 -1.9 -13.8 -18.7
121.7 109.7 127.3 124.5 123.5 120.3 121.5 114.5 117.3 124.0 109.5 102.8
10.3 7.9 9.0 8.6 6.5 4.7 7.9 1.8 6.1 -1.8 -13.2 -15.5
123.9 124.4 123.7 124.8 128.9 133.1 132.4 132.3 132.2 135.1 133.4 125.7
4.5 7.6 8.5 11.6 12.9 16.2 14.5 14.4 17.3 17.5 16.1 7.3
114.2 109.3 118.0 116.3 117.7 115.5 116.8 115.1 116.8 116.9 113.9 121.9
7.8 6.3 5.9 6.3 5.0 3.0 4.2 1.9 3.5 1.4 -1.5 -1.2
93.9 99.8 114.4 115.7 114.8
-25.5 -10.0 -10.5 -8.2 -9.0
93.2 99.5 113.2 114.4 112.7
-23.4 -9.3 -11.1 -8.1 -8.7
124.4 118.1 116.5 112.6 111.6
0.4 -5.1 -5.8 -9.8 -13.4
113.0 109.6 117.2 118.4 117.9
-1.1 0.3 -0.7 1.8 0.2
2009
1 2 3 4P 5P
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
52
July 2009
3. Production capacity and operation ratio See graph 6-2
Period
2007 2008
Y-o-Y change (%)
Operation ratio index (2005=100)
Y-o-Y change (%)
Average operation ratio (%)
109.7 115.4
5.4 5.2
100.4 96.8
0.1 -3.6
80.1 77.2
Production capacity index (2005=100)
2007
I II III IV
107.5 108.3 110.2 112.6
4.5 4.5 6.0 6.4
97.2 102.6 96.2 105.5
-2.1 0.7 -1.7 3.4
78.9 79.9 80.1 81.3
2008
I II III IV
114.0 115.3 116.0 116.5
6.0 6.5 5.3 3.5
98.9 102.7 95.1 90.6
1.7 0.1 -1.1 -14.1
80.8 80.4 78.3 69.3
2009
I
116.9
2.5
80.7
-18.4
65.9
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.2 107.5 107.7 107.9 108.2 108.9 109.7 110.2 110.8 112.3 112.5 113.0
4.4 4.6 4.3 4.5 4.2 4.9 5.8 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.3 6.5
99.8 88.2 103.6 101.5 103.9 102.5 98.3 96.6 93.8 109.4 107.4 99.7
2.6 -7.2 -1.9 0.7 0.9 0.7 7.3 1.4 -12.3 9.6 0.1 0.9
78.5 79.5 78.8 78.8 80.5 80.4 80.6 81.1 78.6 81.9 81.0 80.9
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
113.8 113.8 114.3 114.7 115.5 115.7 115.7 116.0 116.2 116.3 116.3 116.8
6.2 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.7 6.2 5.5 5.3 4.9 3.6 3.4 3.4
102.9 89.2 104.6 104.2 103.0 100.8 99.4 91.9 94.1 103.8 89.1 78.9
3.1 1.1 1.0 2.7 -0.9 -1.7 1.1 -4.9 0.3 -5.1 -17.0 -20.9
81.3 80.2 80.9 81.0 80.0 80.2 79.2 78.4 77.3 77.3 68.4 62.3
2009 1 2 3 4P 5P
116.8 116.9 117.1 117.1 117.1
2.6 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.4
72.9 78.8 90.4 93.2 92.3
-29.2 -11.7 -13.6 -10.6 -10.4
61.4 66.9 69.2 71.6 73.0
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
Economic Bulletin
53
4. Consumer goods sales index See graphs 2-2, 2-3, 2-4 & 2-5 (constant prices, 2005 = 100) Consumer goods sales index
Period
2007 2008
Y-o-Y change (%)
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Semi-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
109.3 110.4
5.1 1.0
124.7 127.1
9.6 1.9
108.1 105.5
3.9 -2.4
108.5 109.3
5.2 0.7
2007
I II III IV
106.6 108.3 107.1 115.1
5.2 4.3 7.2 3.6
119.6 124.6 126.0 128.6
16.6 12.5 10.2 0.8
99.9 110.1 94.1 128.5
5.4 1.5 3.6 5.4
106.6 107.6 110.5 109.4
4.3 3.5 8.4 5.0
2008
I Il III IV
111.3 111.4 108.6 110.3
4.4 2.9 1.4 -4.2
131.0 135.5 126.0 115.9
9.5 8.7 0.0 -9.9
103.7 107.8 94.7 115.8
3.8 -2.1 0.6 -9.9
108.6 107.9 111.8 109.0
1.9 0.3 1.2 -0.4
2009
I
105.9
-4.9
113.2
-13.6
102.8
-0.9
107.0
-1.5
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
106.2 103.6 110.1 106.6 111.3 107.0 105.0 103.6 112.6 113.4 113.9 118.1
0.4 10.3 5.6 3.8 5.6 3.6 9.1 5.8 6.6 6.8 3.9 0.5
118.7 111.2 128.8 120.5 126.5 126.8 130.5 127.0 120.5 124.8 129.1 131.8
22.0 11.5 16.2 13.9 14.3 9.4 20.7 11.4 -0.3 11.7 4.0 -10.3
98.0 91.5 110.2 111.5 116.2 102.5 94.4 80.0 107.8 123.9 130.0 131.7
4.6 5.7 5.8 -0.1 1.8 2.7 3.2 2.8 4.6 8.2 4.3 3.9
104.4 107.4 108.1 105.0 110.3 107.4 105.3 109.6 116.7 109.3 106.6 112.2
-4.9 16.0 3.7 3.3 5.0 1.9 8.7 5.7 10.9 4.1 5.4 5.3
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
111.7 107.2 115.1 113.0 114.8 106.3 109.3 105.9 110.5 109.5 108.6 112.8
5.2 3.5 4.5 6.0 3.1 -0.7 4.1 2.2 -1.9 -3.4 -4.7 -4.5
129.5 118.7 144.8 140.6 137.6 128.2 141.1 121.5 115.4 124.4 109.0 114.4
9.1 6.7 12.4 16.7 8.8 1.1 8.1 -4.3 -4.2 -0.3 -15.6 -13.2
104.5 97.3 109.2 109.2 112.5 101.8 98.0 87.1 99.1 112.5 121.2 113.8
6.6 6.3 -0.9 -2.1 -3.2 -0.7 3.8 8.9 -8.1 -9.2 -6.8 -13.6
108.1 107.9 109.8 108.1 111.7 103.9 105.7 111.4 118.2 105.8 107.0 114.3
3.5 0.5 1.6 3.0 1.3 -3.3 0.4 1.6 1.3 -3.2 0.4 1.9
2009 1 2 3 4P 5P
108.0 100.7 109.1 108.6 116.7
-3.3 -6.1 -5.2 -3.9 1.7
102.5 114.3 122.9 123.7 144.2
-20.8 -3.7 -15.1 -12.0 4.8
103.2 96.8 108.4 110.0 113.0
-1.2 -0.5 -0.7 0.7 0.4
113.6 98.8 108.8 107.0 112.2
5.1 -8.4 -0.9 -1.0 0.4
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
54
July 2009
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index See graph 2-6
Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2005=100) Y-o-Y change (%)
Period
2007 2008
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Consumer sentiment index
113.0 114.6
6.0 1.4
124.5 126.6
12.8 1.7
108.4 109.8
3.2 1.3
-
2007
I II III IV
111.1 111.0 111.3 118.7
8.4 7.8 2.4 5.9
119.8 122.5 122.9 132.8
17.6 15.0 9.3 9.9
107.6 106.4 106.7 113.0
4.8 4.7 -0.5 4.1
-
2008
I II III IV
117.3 115.7 113.5 111.8
5.6 4.2 2.0 -5.8
132.5 136.4 123.0 114.5
10.6 11.3 0.1 -13.8
111.3 107.5 109.7 110.7
3.4 1.0 2.8 -2.0
-
2009
I
106.2
-9.5
112.9
-14.8
103.5
-7.0
-
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
114.9 104.3 114.1 111.6 113.0 108.5 109.7 112.9 111.3 121.6 118.0 116.4
11.1 8.0 6.2 10.1 8.8 4.7 10.0 6.0 -7.1 11.8 3.1 2.9
118.0 113.7 127.8 119.9 125.3 122.4 124.3 125.0 119.5 136.4 131.8 130.2
21.9 14.8 16.2 19.5 18.2 8.0 23.6 13.9 -5.8 16.9 6.7 6.5
113.6 100.5 108.6 108.3 108.0 102.9 103.9 108.1 108.0 115.7 112.4 110.9
7.2 5.0 2.2 6.3 4.8 3.2 4.5 2.8 -7.6 9.6 1.4 1.3
-
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
125.2 106.4 120.3 119.8 115.8 111.6 117.6 111.3 111.5 119.5 107.0 108.8
9.0 2.0 5.4 7.3 2.5 2.9 7.2 -1.4 0.2 -1.7 -9.3 -6.5
131.5 122.4 143.5 144.0 136.9 128.2 134.2 118.8 116.0 127.8 111.0 104.6
11.4 7.7 12.3 20.1 9.3 4.7 8.0 -5.0 -2.9 -6.3 -15.8 -19.7
122.7 100.0 111.1 110.1 107.4 105.0 111.0 108.3 109.7 116.2 105.5 110.5
8.0 -0.5 2.3 1.7 -0.6 2.0 6.8 0.2 1.6 0.4 -6.1 -0.4
84 96 96 88 84 81
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6
105.7 102.3 109.8 110.4P 111.7P -
-15.6 -3.9 -8.7 -7.8P -3.5P -
99.0 115.2 124.3 118.9P 138.5P -
-24.7 -5.9 -13.4 -17.4P 1.2P -
108.4 97.2 104.0 107.1P 101.0P -
-11.7 -2.8 -6.4 -2.7P -6.0P -
84 85 84 98 105 106
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office & The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
55
6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment and estimated facility investment index See graph 3-2 Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant prices) Period
2007 2008
Estimated facility investment index (2000=100)
Domestic machinery shipment excluding ship (2005=100)
Total
Public
Private
34,143 32,280
2,205 2,313
31,938 29,967
17,424 14,672
127.2 123.1
114.5 114.5
Manufacturing
2008
I ll III IV
10,197 8,506 7,520 6,057
372 537 354 1,049
9,825 7,969 7,165 5,007
5,429 3,651 3,394 2,198
126.7 130.8 125.3 109.4
111.7 120.6 113.9 111.9
2009
I
6,523
932
5,591
2,254
97.6
98.1
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3,810 3,044 3,343 2,914 2,659 2,933 3,153 2,330 2,037 2,371 1,813 1,872
149 68 155 95 90 352 179 87 88 399 207 444
3,661 2,976 3,188 2,819 2,569 2,582 2,974 2,243 1,949 1,972 1,607 1,429
2,197 1,723 1,510 1,302 1,085 1,264 1,392 1,114 887 939 668 590
120.2 118.2 141.6 135.6 128.7 128.2 131.5 123.5 120.9 113.4 107.8 107.1
106.3 102.9 125.9 119.6 122.1 120.0 119.6 108.3 113.8 112.5 108.2 115.1
2009 1 2 3 4P 5P
2,022 2,167 2,334 2,166 2,232
232 519 181 93 98
1,790 1,648 2,153 2,070 2,134
791 612 853 770 775
89.1 95.2 108.6 100.9 111.8
84.3 97.5 112.5 109.0 102.5
Y-o-Y change (%) 2007 2008
21.1 -5.5
-11.2 4.9
24.2 -6.2
31.9 -15.8
9.2 -3.2
3.3 0.0
2008
I ll III IV
25.2 8.4 -7.6 -39.5
8.8 83.7 -26.8 -3.5
25.9 5.5 -6.4 -43.9
40.2 -4.5 -20.3 -59.8
-0.7 -0.5 5.3 -16.2
1.3 0.6 6.5 -7.4
2009
I
-36.0
150.5
-43.1
-58.5
-23.0
-12.3
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
44.4 8.3 24.1 17.9 2.3 5.6 20.7 -3.9 -34.3 -36.5 -43.9 -38.5
67.8 -54.7 50.6 1.3 -1.5 228.9 5.3 -31.8 -52.7 348.0 -4.7 -43.2
43.5 11.8 23.0 18.5 2.5 -3.4 21.8 -2.4 -33.2 -45.9 -46.7 -36.8
69.8 23.9 27.0 6.8 -9.9 -9.8 12.3 -0.1 -53.3 -62.1 -63.8 -48.4
-1.5 -2.2 1.2 -1.8 -1.4 1.8 8.7 0.1 7.5 -7.7 -17.0 -23.0
1.8 0.2 1.6 4.4 -0.8 -1.7 7.1 2.6 10.0 -1.0 -10.1 -10.4
2009 1 2 3 4P 5P
-46.9 -28.8 -30.2 -25.8 -16.1
56.1 661.2 16.7 -2.5 8.7
-51.1 -44.6 -32.4 -26.6 -16.9
-64.0 -64.5 -43.5 -40.9 -28.6
-25.9 -19.5 -23.3 -25.6 -13.1
-20.7 -5.2 -10.6 -8.9 -16.1
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
56
July 2009
7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received See graphs 4-2 & 4-3 (current prices, billion won)
Period
2007 2008
Type of order
Type of order
Private
Domestic construction orders received (total)
Public
Private
25,098 26,728
54,559 55,509
112,502 102,321
28,695 31,320
77,554 65,294
Value of construction completed (total)
Public
82,939 86,806
2008
I ll III IV
18,283 22,158 22,317 24,047
5,279 6,568 6,503 8,383
12,142 14,367 14,712 14,288
21,048 25,995 17,061 38,217
7,398 6,056 4,691 13,175
13,077 19,171 10,795 22,252
2009
I
19,115
6,562
11,536
17,567
9,024
8,055
2008
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
6,074 5,473 6,736 7,026 7,321 7,811 7,168 7,312 7,837 7,741 7,779 8,528
1,716 1,519 2,040 1,967 2,224 2,376 2,025 2,139 2,339 2,498 2,572 3,312
4,072 3,698 4,372 4,636 4,731 5,001 4,789 4,822 5,101 4,819 4,743 4,726
6,275 6,152 8,621 7,880 8,578 9,537 5,372 6,169 5,519 8,187 8,151 21,879
1,907 2,048 3,442 1,743 2,499 1,814 1,392 1,520 1,779 2,451 3,088 7,636
4,166 3,887 5,024 5,933 5,884 7,353 3,452 4,432 2,911 4,827 4,722 12,703
6,048 6,129 6,937 7,451 7,238
2,149 2,036 2,377 2,643 2,606
3,608 3,782 4,147 4,415 4,245
5,333 4,880 7,354 7,249 6,988
2,552 2,695 3,778 5,610 4,295
2,514 2,079 3,462 1,260 2,573
2009
1 2 3 4P 5P
Y-o-Y change (%) 2007 2008
6.6 4.7
8.4 6.5
4.6 1.7
23.6 -9.0
40.3 9.1
16.5 -15.8
2008
I ll III IV
5.6 6.1 10.6 -2.2
6.8 3.5 6.6 8.7
3.0 4.6 10.5 -9.1
-3.7 -6.1 -22.7 -6.5
17.4 14.6 2.9 5.0
-14.1 -4.7 -32.3 -15.3
2009
I
4.5
24.4
-5.0
-16.5
22.0
-38.4
2008
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
10.5 3.1 3.6 4.2 7.5 6.6 8.7 8.3 14.8 5.1 -1.3 -8.6
16.5 -1.0 5.5 2.4 5.0 3.1 3.2 9.5 6.9 20.4 5.7 3.4
5.6 2.6 1.0 2.6 5.9 5.3 9.2 5.9 16.7 -3.3 -7.1 -16.2
-9.3 -7.0 3.6 -0.5 16.4 -23.0 -13.2 -8.1 -39.8 -23.7 -39.3 30.7
3.6 2.1 40.1 -5.6 50.7 2.0 -9.2 9.3 8.8 -25.8 -16.6 37.8
-15.0 -14.1 -13.4 3.4 16.0 -21.0 -8.4 -10.7 -59.6 -32.1 -46.7 23.4
-0.4 12.0 3.0 6.0 -1.1
25.2 34.0 16.5 34.3 17.2
-11.4 2.3 -5.1 -4.8 -10.3
-15.0 -20.7 -14.7 -8.0 -18.5
33.8 31.6 9.7 221.8 71.9
-39.7 -46.5 -31.1 -78.8 -56.3
2009
1 2 3 4P 5P
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
Economic Bulletin
57
8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI See graphs 13-1, 13-2 & 13-3
Y-o-Y change (%)
Coincident index (2005=100)
Cycle of coincident index (2005=100)
BSI (result)
BSI (prospects)
104.2 104.3 104.2 104.3 104.6 105.0 105.2 105.6 106.3 107.2 108.0 108.6
6.9 6.4 5.8 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.5 4.3 4.5 5.0 5.3 5.3
104.0 104.1 104.5 104.6 105.2 105.5 105.2 105.6 106.4 108.3 109.1 109.4
100.4 100.1 100.1 99.8 99.9 99.8 99.1 99.1 99.4 100.7 101.1 101.0
95.4 90.5 111.5 99.8 94.1 94.2 79.1 85.9 99.4 99.4 103.7 100.4
102.6 102.4 118.9 112.7 110.7 98.6 94.2 93.4 107.7 103.5 104.3 101.4
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
109.1 109.9 110.3 111.0 111.3 112.4 113.2 114.1 114.7 115.6 116.4 116.8
5.4 5.8 5.7 6.0 5.8 6.4 6.8 7.1 7.2 7.5 7.7 7.4
109.4 109.8 110.2 110.7 111.2 112.1 113.0 113.7 113.8 114.4 115.0 116.0
100.6 100.6 100.5 100.5 100.6 100.9 101.4 101.6 101.2 101.3 101.5 101.9
85.6 87.5 109.4 105.8 104.1 100.2 95.8 94.4 101.5 108.3 106.0 98.9
96.5 93.4 112.3 107.7 110.9 105.6 99.3 102.5 111.8 116.3 112.4 103.4
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
116.5 115.7 115.1 115.0 115.0 114.6 113.8 113.5 113.4 112.7 111.3 110.4
6.5 5.0 3.9 3.2 2.5 1.5 0.2 -0.4 -0.9 -1.8 -3.2 -4.2
116.8 116.9 117.1 117.1 117.3 117.3 117.6 117.7 117.9 117.6 115.9 113.0
102.2 101.9 101.7 101.2 101.0 100.6 100.4 100.1 99.8 99.2 97.3 94.6
95.2 95.6 101.1 101.7 98.1 79.1 80.8 83.1 76.8 64.6 53.7 52.4
103.0 94.8 102.1 98.1 104.7 95.3 83.2 80.8 98.3 84.9 63.7 55.0
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
110.6 111.8 112.9P 115.0P 117.4P -
-4.1 -3.0 -2.0P 0.1P 2.6P -
110.9 110.9 111.9P 113.6P 114.4P -
58.1 62.4 89.0 93.7 100.9 96.6 -
52.0 66.0 76.1 86.7 103.8 100.2 98.7
Period
Leading index (2005=100)
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office & The Federation of Korean Industries
58
July 2009
92.4 92.0 92.5P 93.5P 93.8P -
9. Balance of payments (I) See graphs 5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 10-1 & 10-2 (million US$)
Current balance
Period
2007 2008P
Goods trade balance
Exports
5,876.0 -6,406.4
28,168.0 5,993.9
Imports
Services trade balance
Income trade balance
Current transfers
371,489.1 422,007.3
356,845.7 435,274.7
-19,767.6 -16,733.6
1,002.7 5,106.5
-3,527.1 -773.2
2007
I II III IV
-1,013.3 -1,303.6 4,344.1 3,848.8
5,721.8 5,811.9 8,881.9 7,752.4
84,703.5 92,984.5 90,529.1 103,272.0
82,261.7 87,961.9 86,058.8 100,563.3
-5,391.3 -4,415.9 -5,256.6 -4,703.8
-618.1 -1,662.4 1,795.9 1,487.3
-725.7 -1,037.2 -1,077.1 -687.1
2008P
I II III IV
-5,212.6 -134.4 -8,579.9 7,520.5
-1,219.8 5,722.7 -3,475.5 4,966.5
99,444.5 114,492.0 115,000.1 93,070.6
106,052.9 114,792.8 122,901.0 91,528.0
-5,067.2 -4,272.7 -5,691.7 -1,702.0
1,688.1 -645.6 1,356.7 2,707.3
-613.7 -938.8 -769.4 1,548.7
2009P
I
8,576.7
8,349.6
74,712.5
71,182.2
-1,883.3
832.4
1,278.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
439.4 430.4 -1,883.1 -2,558.6 193.8 1,061.2 1,773.7 589.1 1,981.3 3,010.5 1,674.4 -836.1
1,505.6 2,140.0 2,076.2 1,233.1 1,476.9 3,101.9 3,250.9 2,386.2 3,244.8 4,361.0 2,723.8 667.6
28,092.6 26,225.1 30,385.8 29,944.5 31,039.9 32,000.1 30,207.4 30,998.1 29,323.5 34,433.8 35,807.9 33,030.3
27,560.1 25,406.2 29,295.5 29,596.9 29,856.9 28,508.1 29,223.2 29,642.1 27,193.6 32,741.2 33,926.1 33,895.9
-1,409.6 -2,356.4 -1,625.3 -1,371.3 -1,396.5 -1,648.1 -1,675.3 -2,050.6 -1,530.7 -1,527.0 -1,410.8 -1,766.0
610.1 867.2 -2,095.4 -2,203.8 504.0 37.4 557.1 610.7 628.1 454.1 474.8 558.4
-266.7 -220.4 -238.6 -216.6 -390.6 -430.0 -359.0 -357.2 -360.9 -277.6 -113.4 -296.1
2008P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-2,751.3 -2,350.7 -110.6 -1,581.3 -377.5 1,824.4 -2,534.0 -4,696.3 -1,349.6 4,753.0 1,906.7 860.8
-1,095.2 -599.1 474.5 1,632.3 612.5 3,477.9 217.6 -2,803.4 -889.7 2,625.7 844.8 1,496.0
32,274.6 31,178.2 35,991.8 37,850.2 39,383.2 37,258.6 40,961.2 36,610.6 37,428.3 37,111.1 28,841.6 27,117.9
36,318.0 32,624.3 37,110.6 38,260.4 38,704.5 37,827.9 42,952.5 40,420.4 39,528.1 36,098.8 28,853.6 26,575.6
-2,138.1 -2,249.6 -679.5 -979.0 -1,167.4 -2,126.3 -2,456.0 -2,000.0 -1,235.7 -54.8 -130.1 -1,517.1
768.0 700.7 219.4 -1,932.0 459.2 827.2 239.6 324.8 792.3 1,411.2 720.2 575.9
-286.0 -202.7 -125.0 -302.6 -281.8 -354.4 -535.2 -217.7 -16.5 770.9 471.8 306.0
2009P 1 2 3 4 5
-1,635.8 3,563.7 6,648.8 4,247.4 3,633.1
-1,736.5 3,106.9 6,979.2 6,131.8 5,019.2
21,134.6 25,399.5 28,033.6 30,379.8 28,147.7
24,853.7 22,526.5 23,801.4 24,628.7 23,087.8
-708.6 -529.0 -645.7 -1,109.3 -1,466.7
563.5 484.6 -215.7 -855.5 358.3
245.8 501.2 531.0 80.4 -277.7
2007
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea & Korea Customs Service
Economic Bulletin
59
10. Balance of payments (II) See graph 10-3 (million US$) Changes in reserve assets
Period
Capital & financial account
Direct investment
Portfolio investment
Financial derivative
2007 2008P
7,128.3 -50,933.3
-13,836.0 -10,594.8
-26,057.8 -15,367.5
5,444.8 -14,332.7
43,964.8 -10,599.7
-2,387.5 -38.6
-15,128.4 56,446.0
2,124.1 893.7
I II III IV
6,364.1 8,948.6 -4,323.4 -3,861.0
-900.7 -2,847.3 -2,606.0 -7,482.0
-12,227.6 -1,055.9 -11,455.8 -1,318.5
1,300.5 1,067.4 1,432.9 1,644.0
19,005.7 12,466.8 8,879.2 3,613.1
-813.8 -682.4 -573.7 -317.6
-3,998.3 -6,250.1 -2,495.6 -2,384.2
-1,352.5 -1,394.9 2,475.1 2,396.4
2008P I ll III IV
395.9 -4,673.7 -4,850.5 -41,805.0
-4,790.6 -2,913.5 -2,283.5 -607.2
-9,992.8 5,997.3 -12,393.1 1,021.1
-1,072.8 -805.9 -3,470.2 -8,983.8
16,489.7 -6,718.6 13,515.7 -33,886.5
-237.6 -233.0 -219.4 651.4
3,850.0 5,717.7 12,883.1 33,995.2
966.7 -909.6 547.3 289.3
I
-548.7
-1,194.7
3,532.3
-4,893.6
1,282.3
736.9
-9,017.4
989.4
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2,179.9 -527.7 4,711.9 4,481.5 4,750.1 -283.0 -552.8 137.3 -3,907.9 -3,753.9 -373.5 266.4
-222.3 -644.1 -34.3 -402.2 -282.9 -2,162.2 -322.0 -1,427.1 -856.9 -4,514.5 -1,723.4 -1,244.1
-1,915.9 -2,366.7 -7,945.0 3,601.6 -12.6 -4,644.9 -7,912.0 -6,531.8 2,988.0 -638.2 -2,473.5 1,793.2
292.8 368.2 639.5 197.7 409.0 460.7 705.2 440.1 287.6 663.4 627.2 353.4
4,381.7 2,318.3 12,305.7 1,325.2 4,871.5 6,270.1 7,203.9 7,864.1 -6,188.8 900.5 3,269.4 -556.8
-356.4 -203.4 -254.0 -240.8 -234.9 -206.7 -227.9 -208.0 -137.8 -165.1 -73.2 -79.3
-2,350.7 -1,134.7 -512.9 -1,878.4 -4,492.9 121.2 -2,421.6 -937.6 863.4 -847.5 -493.8 -1,042.9
-268.6 1,232.0 -2,315.9 -44.5 -451.0 -899.4 1,200.7 211.2 1,063.2 1,590.9 -807.1 1,612.6
2008P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
409.2 -401.3 388.0 -376.9 -732.1 -3,564.7 -5,774.6 5,312.4 -4,388.3 -24,834.8 -12,140.9 -4,829.3
-2,488.7 303.5 -2,605.4 -1,911.9 -262.6 -739.0 -1,214.3 -742.7 -326.5 -198.7 -213.9 -194.6
-3,829.7 -5,214.3 -948.8 4,069.9 7,623.0 -5,695.6 -8,855.9 -566.8 -2,970.4 5,172.5 -3,139.6 -1,011.8
-181.4 -212.1 -679.3 -498.2 -279.6 -28.1 -707.2 1.4 -2,764.4 -3,912.1 -1,558.7 -3,513.0
7,013.3 4,819.9 4,656.5 -1,948.9 -7,758.2 2,988.5 5,180.4 6,730.0 1,605.3 -26,247.2 -7,439.3 -200.0
-104.3 -98.3 -35.0 -87.8 -54.7 -90.5 -177.6 -109.5 67.7 350.7 210.6 90.1
1,436.1 1,703.1 710.8 2,411.3 2,264.6 1,041.8 9,171.4 -1,215.2 4,926.9 19,988.1 10,904.2 3,102.9
906.0 1,048.9 -988.2 -453.1 -1,155.0 698.5 -862.8 599.1 811.0 93.7 -670.0 865.6
2009P 1 2 3 4 5
5,139.4 -2,976.9 -2,711.2 2,161.3 6,720.3
-55.0 -545.5 -594.2 80.4 -259.6
5,678.8 161.4 -2,307.9 7,133.0 4,273.7
-248.5 -2,321.2 -2,323.9 -679.8 1,341.1
-379.4 -610.3 2,272.0 -4,532.6 1,274.1
149.6 326.1 261.2 140.5 93.8
-4,488.6 -1,260.0 -3,268.8 -5,444.1 -10,248.6
985.0 673.2 -668.8 -964.6 -104.8
2007
2009
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
60
July 2009
Capital transfers Other & acquisition of investment non-financial assets
Errors and omissions
11. Prices See graphs 11-1, 11-2 & 11-3 (2005 = 100) Producer prices (2000=100)
Consumer prices
Export & import prices
Period All Items
Commodity
Service
Core
All items
Commodity
Export
Import
2007 2008
104.8 109.7
103.5 109.9
105.7 109.6
104.2 108.6
102.3 111.1
101.5 112.5
89.8 109.5
105.5 143.7
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
106.8 107.2 108.2 108.8 109.7 110.4 111.2 111.0 111.1 111.0 110.7 110.7
106.3 106.6 107.1 108.2 110.0 111.5 112.9 112.2 112.1 111.7 110.3 110.2
107.1 107.5 108.9 109.2 109.5 109.7 110.1 110.3 110.4 110.6 110.9 111.0
105.6 106.0 107.2 107.7 108.2 108.7 109.2 109.4 109.9 110.1 110.4 110.9
104.7 105.7 107.1 109.4 111.5 113.3 115.5 115.2 114.8 114.4 111.8 109.9
104.4 105.7 107.5 110.3 113.1 115.5 118.1 117.6 117.0 116.7 113.3 110.9
93.7 94.8 100.8 103.3 110.7 112.0 112.1 110.5 115.6 124.5 120.4 115.0
118.4 121.6 131.5 136.5 151.1 155.2 156.8 149.9 153.4 159.7 149.1 140.6
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6
110.8 111.6 112.4 112.7 112.7 112.6
110.4 112.1 113.3 113.8 113.6 113.3
111.1 111.2 111.8 112.0 112.0 112.1
111.1 111.5 112.0 112.2 112.4 112.5
109.6 110.3 110.8 111.0 110.1 109.8
110.4 111.5 112.1 112.1 111.0 110.5
111.1 116.5 118.4 112.2 106.3 108.3
138.1 143.5 145.4 134.1 130.1 136.7
Y-o-Y change (%) 2007 2008
2.5 4.7
2.0 6.2
2.9 3.7
2.4 4.2
1.4 8.6
1.0 10.8
-2.1 21.8
4.5 36.2
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.9 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.9 5.5 5.9 5.6 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.1
4.8 4.2 4.7 5.3 7.0 8.6 9.3 8.4 7.1 6.3 5.1 4.4
3.2 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.0
2.8 2.8 3.3 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.6
4.2 5.1 6.0 7.6 9.0 10.5 12.5 12.3 11.3 10.7 7.8 5.6
4.8 6.1 7.3 9.3 11.3 13.6 16.1 15.6 14.4 14.0 9.9 6.9
5.8 7.6 13.4 15.7 24.0 25.2 25.1 21.9 27.4 38.6 31.5 25.0
21.2 22.2 28.0 31.3 44.6 49.0 50.6 42.6 42.6 47.1 32.0 22.4
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6
3.7 4.1 3.9 3.6 2.7 2.0
3.9 5.2 5.8 5.2 3.3 1.6
3.7 3.4 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.2
5.2 5.2 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.5
4.7 4.4 3.5 1.5 -1.3 -3.1
5.7 5.5 4.3 1.6 -1.9 -4.3
18.6 22.9 17.4 7.7 -4.1 -3.3
16.7 18.0 10.6 -1.8 -13.9 -11.9
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
61
12. Employment See graphs 8-1, 8-2 & 8-3
Wage workers (thous.)
Economically active persons (thous.) Period
Employed persons (thous.)
Unemployment (%) Regular
Temporary
Daily
All industry Manufacturing S.O.C&service 2007 2008
24,216 24,347
23,433 23,577
4,014 3,963
17,679 17,906
3.2 3.2
15,970 16,206
8,620 9,007
5,172 5,079
2,178 2,121
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
23,738 23,703 24,114 24,495 24,692 24,727 24,673 24,380 24,456 24,582 24,566 24,032
22,964 22,884 23,305 23,711 23,939 23,963 23,903 23,617 23,734 23,847 23,816 23,245
4,022 4,017 3,999 4,001 3,987 3,993 3,975 3,899 3,928 3,945 3,897 3,888
17,651 17,510 17,732 17,929 18,046 18,067 18,088 17,872 17,951 18,005 18,086 17,935
3.3 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.3
16,032 15,836 15,993 16,258 16,405 16,385 16,363 16,104 16,221 16,314 16,377 16,189
8,815 8,804 8,898 8,894 9,010 9,039 9,054 9,107 9,142 9,138 9,111 9,068
5,115 5,055 5,023 5,127 5,165 5,132 5,163 4,970 5,015 5,034 5,071 5,082
2,102 1,977 2,073 2,238 2,231 2,214 2,146 2,027 2,064 2,142 2,195 2,040
2009 1 2 3 4 5
23,709 23,667 24,062 24,456 24,658
22,861 22,742 23,110 23,524 23,720
3,895 3,842 3,813 3,846 3,846
17,663 17,539 17,701 17,899 18,016
3.6 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.8
16,053 15,953 16,076 16,353 16,484
9,102 9,194 9,174 9,227 9,316
4,982 4,862 4,941 5,051 5,076
1,969 1,897 1,961 2,076 2,092
Y-o-Y change (%) 2007 2008
1.0 0.5
1.2 0.6
-1.0 -1.3
2.2 1.3
-
2.7 1.5
5.1 4.5
0.6 -1.8
-1.2 -2.6
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2
1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 -0.1
-0.6 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1 -1.2 -1.2 -1.6 -2.3 -2.2 -3.3
1.8 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.6
-
2.4 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.5
5.2 4.8 5.5 5.2 5.6 4.9 4.4 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.6
-1.2 -1.4 -3.2 -2.1 -1.8 -1.6 -1.7 -1.5 -1.7 -1.7 -2.0 -1.8
0.2 -1.9 -1.8 -1.7 -3.2 -3.3 -2.4 -2.3 -3.2 -2.8 -2.5 -6.3
2009 1 2 3 4 5
-0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1
-0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9
-3.2 -4.4 -4.7 -3.9 -3.5
0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
-
0.1 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5
3.3 4.4 3.1 3.7 3.4
-2.6 -3.8 -1.6 -1.5 -1.7
-6.3 -4.1 -5.4 -7.2 -6.2
Source: Korea National Statistical Office
62
July 2009
13. Financial indicators See graphs 9-1 & 9-4 (period average) Yields (%)
Stock
Period Call rate (1 day)
CD (91 days)
Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)
Treasury bonds (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
KOSPI (end-period)
2005 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.7
3.5 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0
4.1 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.8 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.5
3.7 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.1
3.9 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.4 4.7 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.3
932.70 1,011.40 965.70 911.30 970.20 1,008.20 1,111.30 1,083.30 1,221.00 1,158.10 1,297.40 1,379.40
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.8
5.5 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.2
5.0 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.8
5.3 5.0 5.1 5.2 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.9
1,399.80 1,371.60 1,359.60 1,419.70 1,371.70 1,295.70 1,297.80 1,352.70 1,371.40 1,364.60 1,432.20 1,434.50
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.7
5.3 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.7
5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.9
5.0 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.9
1,360.20 1,417.30 1,452.60 1,542.24 1,700.91 1,743.60 1,933.27 1,873.24 1,946.48 2,064.95 1,906.00 1,897.10
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.2 4.9 4.0 3.3
5.8 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.8 5.8 6.0 5.6 4.7
6.6 6.3 6.1 5.9 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.5 8.0 8.6 8.4
5.4 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.1 5.0 4.0
5.5 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.2 5.2 4.3
1,624.68 1,711.62 1,703.99 1,825.47 1,852.02 1,674.92 1,594.67 1,474.24 1,448.06 1,113.06 1,076.07 1,124.47
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6
2.4 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9
3.2 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4
7.3 7.1 6.1 5.7 5.2 5.2
3.4 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.1
4.0 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.7
1,162.11 1,063.03 1,206.26 1,369.40 1,395.89 1,370.07
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
63
14. Monetary indicators See graph 9-5 (period average)
Period
(billion won)
Reserve money
M1
M2
Lf
2007 2008
48,543.7 52,272.8
312,832.3 307,273.6
1,197,094.8 1,367,713.4
1,603,516.0 1,794,841.2
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
50,260.5 52,563.7 49,571.5 50,683.6 50,502.5 51,274.4 50,600.6 51,981.0 53,303.9 52,976.5 54,254.5 59,300.7
305,868.0 304,580.7 299,792.8 298,474.4 304,239.8 305,514.3 306,584.4 304,538.7 307,067.8 310,565.5 316,330.9 323,725.9
1,286,407.8 1,309,161.7 1,324,032.7 1,339,434.9 1,356,612.9 1,369,728.1 1,378,914.3 1,386,101.1 1,395,719.2 1,403,984.2 1,426,165.1 1,436,298.3
1,711,196.8 1,726,407.2 1,743,481.7 1,762,945.3 1,782,721.1 1,798,774.9 1,801,540.6 1,810,535.1 1,831,313.4 1,845,717.7 1,859,348.8 1,864,111.6
2009 1 2 3 4 5
64,040.6 63,061.7 65,669.5 61,379.9 60,082.5
331,358.0 334,521.7 342,777.0 350,446.0 355,922.0
1,440,275.8 1,457,931.3 1,470,443.1 1,482,009.7 1,491,542.7
1,868,843.3 1,879,102.7 1,889,388.6 1,897,923.7 1,912,745.6
Y-o-Y change (%) 2007 2008
16.5 7.7
-5.2 -1.8
11.2 14.3
10.2 11.9
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5.0 6.2 1.3 6.7 5.0 7.0 6.5 8.7 9.1 7.3 11.1 17.8
-13.5 -13.2 -10.6 -2.3 1.0 1.0 1.4 2.2 2.7 4.2 5.5 5.2
12.5 13.4 13.9 14.9 15.8 15.1 14.8 14.7 14.5 14.2 14.0 13.1
11.4 11.6 11.9 12.7 13.1 12.7 12.1 11.8 12.2 11.9 11.4 10.4
2009 1 2 3 4 5
27.4 20.0 32.5 21.1 19.0
8.3 9.8 14.3 17.4 17.0
12.0 11.4 11.1 10.6 9.9
9.2 8.8 8.4 7.7 7.3
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
64
July 2009
15. Exchange rates See graphs 9-2 & 9-3
₩ /US$
₩ /100￥
₩ /Euro
Period End-period
Average
End-period
Average
End-period
Average
2007 2008
938.2 1,257.5
929.2 1,102.6
833.3 1,393.9
789.8 1,076.6
1,381.3 1,776.2
1,272.7 1,606.8
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
943.9 937.3 991.7 999.7 1,031.4 1,043.4 1,008.5 1,081.8 1,187.7 1,291.4 1,482.7 1,257.5
942.4 944.7 979.9 986.7 1,036.7 1,029.3 1,019.1 1,041.5 1,130.4 1,326.9 1,390.1 1,373.8
889.1 889.7 1,000.2 961.8 977.0 981.8 932.9 987.9 1,144.2 1,306.0 1,553.8 1,393.9
872.9 880.6 972.3 962.4 994.2 963.0 954.2 953.0 1,060.6 1,327.1 1,435.1 1,503.3
1,402.3 1,423.5 1,565.0 1,556.2 1,599.6 1,647.1 1,571.0 1,590.3 1,707.2 1,664.4 1,912.6 1,776.2
1,386.2 1,395.4 1,519.5 1,555.1 1,614.6 1,601.7 1,606.4 1,561.6 1,627.6 1,765.3 1,768.9 1,846.1
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6
1,368.5 1,516.4 1,377.1 1,348.0 1,272.9 1,284.7
1,346.1 1,429.5 1,462.0 1,341.9 1,258.7 1,261.4
1,521.0 1,541.1 1,414.8 1,382.9 1,314.1 1,336.3
1,487.2 1,546.1 1,495.7 1,356.2 1,304.5 1,305.5
1,768.7 1,930.1 1,816.4 1,786.8 1,772.7 1,809.3
1,793.8 1,829.9 1,904.0 1,771.6 1,719.1 1,767.8
Y-o-Y change (%) 2007 2008
0.9 34.0
-2.8 18.7
6.6 67.3
-3.9 36.3
-13.0 28.6
6.1 26.2
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0.3 -0.1 5.5 7.6 10.9 12.6 9.2 15.1 29.0 42.3 59.5 34.0
0.6 0.8 3.9 5.9 11.7 10.9 10.9 11.5 21.2 44.9 51.6 47.7
15.0 12.1 25.5 23.6 27.8 30.5 20.4 22.0 43.6 65.1 83.6 67.3
12.2 13.4 20.8 22.8 29.4 27.2 26.3 19.2 30.8 67.8 73.7 81.5
14.9 14.6 24.8 22.8 28.1 32.2 24.0 24.0 31.0 27.1 39.4 28.6
13.9 13.9 21.6 23.6 28.7 28.7 27.5 22.7 26.1 35.5 31.5 36.2
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6
45.0 61.8 38.9 34.8 23.4 23.1
42.8 51.3 49.2 36.0 21.4 22.5
71.1 73.2 41.5 43.8 34.5 36.1
70.4 75.6 53.8 40.9 31.2 35.6
26.1 35.6 16.1 14.8 10.8 9.9
29.4 31.1 25.3 13.9 6.5 10.4
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
65
Editor-in-Chief Park, Chul-Kyu (MOSF) Editorial Board Kim, Young-Min (MOSF) Kim, Dong-Yule (KDI) Lee, In-Sook (KDI) Coordinators Kim, Dae-Hyun (MOSF) Cho, Hyun-Joo (KDI) Editors Kim, Sun-Young (MOSF) Lim, Keun-Hyuk (MOSF) Kang, Ji-Eun (KDI)
Useful Internet Websites Economy-related Websites Recommended
Ministry of Strategy and Finance http://english.mosf.go.kr Ministry of Knowledge Economy http://www.mke.go.kr/language/eng Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr Fair Trade Commission http://www.ftc.go.kr/eng Ministry of Labor http://english.molab.go.kr/english The Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr Korea National Statistical Office http://www.nso.go.kr/eng2006